Academic literature on the topic 'Index Consistency'

The Beck Hopelessness Scale was applied in a sample of 971 male and female students, chosen at random sampling from Mexico City, with an average age of 16.75 years. Results were compared to those reported by Beck, Weissman, Lester and Trexler (1974). Results showed adequate reliability (≥ 0.70) in the total sample by gender. Factorial structure matched only in the Affective factor as reported by Beck et al. (1974) with respect to the total sample. Differences in saturation and factorial structure in both sexes were observed. It was concluded that the factor structure of Beck Hopelessness Scale registers different factor structure in the total sample, according to sex.
En una muestra de 971 estudiantes de ambos sexos elegidos en forma aleatoria de la ciudad de México con un promedio de edad de 16.75 anos, se aplicó la Escala de Desesperanza de Beck. Se calculo la consistencia interna y la estructura factorial con el procedimiento reportado por Beck, Weissman, Lester y Trexler (1974) en muestra total y por sexo. Los resultados indicaron confiabilidad adecuada (≥ .70) en la muestra total y por sexo, estructura factorial coincidente solo en el factor Afectivo en la muestra total, y diferencias de saturación y de estructura factorial en ambos sexos. Se concluyo que la Escala de Desesperanza de Beck registra diferente estructura factorial en muestra total y de acuerdo con el sexo.

Model credibility index is defined to be a sample size under which the power of rejection equals 0.5. It applies goodness-of-fit testing thinking and uses a one-number summary statistic as an assessment tool in a false model world. The estimation of the model credibility index involves a bootstrap resampling technique. To assess the consistency of the estimator of model credibility index, we instead study the variance of the power achieved at a fixed sample size. An improved subsampling method is proposed to obtain an unbiased estimator of the variance of power. We present two examples to interpret the mechanics of building model credibility index and estimate its error in model selection. One example is two-way independent model by Pearson Chi-square test, and another example is multi-dimensional logistic regression model using likelihood ratio test.

INTRODUCTION: Preterm birth (PTB) remains a major contributor to perinatal morbidity and mortality being the second leading cause of death in children under 5 years of age. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth (sPTB) still accounts for approximately 5%-12% in USA and in most developing countries. Cervical length (CL) <25 mm measured with transvaginal ultrasound at mid-gestation is a known risk factor for sPTB. However, its value for screening a whole pregnant population consisting mainly of women without risk factors for sPTB remains controversial because of the low sensitivity of short CL in low-risk women. MAIN OBJECTIVE: To improve the identification of women at increased risk of sPTB in low and high sPTB risk asymptomatic pregnancies during mid-gestation with two innovative transvaginal ultrasound techniques, the Cervical Consistency Index (CCI) and the Quantitative Cervical Texture Analysis (CTx). The CCI is an ultrasound measurement that aims to estimate cervical softness by measuring maximal tissue compressibility with a vaginal ultrasound probe. The CTx, extracts information from the speckle pattern of the ultrasound image and identifies the patterns associated with SPTB. METHODS: Articles 1 and 2 are prospective cohort studies that compare the predictive capacity of the ICC with that of the CL. Article 3 is a cross-sectional study that analyzes the cervical texture along a term gestation. Article 4 is a case-control study, in which a CTx-score is obtained, which is compared with the CL. RESULTS: STUDY 1. Mid-trimester sonographic cervical consistency index to predict spontaneous preterm birth in a low-risk population: The cervix was significantly shorter (median CL 39.8 mm vs. 36.2 mm, p=0.004) and the CCI was significantly lower (median 73.0% vs. 58.1%, p<0.001) in the sPTB group. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for CCI with regard to predicting sPTB <37+0 weeks was 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) and that for CL 0.68 (95% CI 0.56-0.81), P = 0.03. STUDY 2. Mid-trimester sonographic cervical consistency index to predict spontaneous preterm birth in a high-risk population: The CCI (%) was significantly inferior in women who had a preterm delivery compared to the term group. CCI adjusted OR, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83-0.99; P=0.03). The AUC of the CCI to predict sPTB <37+0 weeks was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.61-0.85) while that of CL was 0.51 (95% CI, 0.35-0.67), P=0.03. STUDY 3. Quantitative Analysis of the Cervical Texture by Ultrasound and Correlation with Gestational Age: The correlation between the gestational age at which the images were obtained and the estimated gestational age by quantitative analysis of the cervical texture was R=0.88. Ce STUDY 4. Quantitative analysis of the cervical texture by ultrasound in the mid-pregnancy is associated with spontaneous preterm birth: The median CTx-based score obtained was significantly lower in cases compared to controls. The CTx-based crude OR 0.31 (95% CI 0.17-0.56; P<0.001) vs. adjusted OR 0.37 (95% CI 0.19-0.64; P=0.001). The AUC for the CTx-based score to identify women delivering < 37+0 weeks was higher (0.77; 95% CI 0.66-0.87) than for CL (0.60; 95% CI 0.47-0.72), P=0.02. DISCUSSION: The CCI and CTx have the potential to improve the identification of women at increased risk of sPTB compared to CL. The large number of scenarios in which these tools could be applied have demonstrated their potential impact on the current management of a large number of pregnancies. Cervical assessment is required in a wide range of clinical situations and the main reason why it is not yet universally implemented is the limited performance of the current cervical assessment techniques. Therefore, it is a healthcare priority to develop sPTB predictive tools with sufficiently improved performance to be used as screening tools.
INTRODUCCIÓN: El parto prematuro representa la segunda causa de morbimortalidad infantil a nivel mundial. Las estrategias actuales de detección de las mujeres con un riesgo aumentado de parto prematuro espontáneo (SPTB), han demostrado ser insuficientes y el desarrollo de nuevas herramientas predictivas es una prioridad en el campo de la medicina materno-fetal. OBJETIVOS: Mejorar la identificación de las mujeres con riesgo de SPTB en el segundo trimestre, evaluando dos nuevas herramientas ecográficas: el Índice de Consistencia Cervical (CCI) y el análisis cuantitativo de la textura cervical (CTx). MÉTODOS: El CCI, evalúa la máxima compresibilidad del cuello del útero. El CTx, extrae información del patrón de moteado de la imagen ecográfica e identifica los patrones asociados con SPTB. Los artículos 1 y 2, son estudios prospectivos de cohortes que comparan la capacidad predictiva del CCI con la de la CL. El artículo 3 es un estudio transversal que analiza la textura cervical a lo largo de una gestación a término. El artículo 4 es un estudio de casos y controles, en el cual se obtiene un CTx-score, que se compara con la CL. RESULTADOS: Las curvas ROC para la predicción de SPTB <37 y <34 semanas del CCI (0.84 y 0.73), son significativamente mejores que las de la CL (0.68 y 0.51). El CTx-score en los casos de SPTB es significativamente inferior que en los controles. La curva ROC del CTx-score es mejor en comparación con la de la CL (0.77 vs 0.60). CONCLUSIONES: Los artículos 1 y 2, demuestran que el CCI es mejor predictor de SPTB que la CL en poblaciones de bajo y alto riesgo de prematuridad. El artículo 3 demuestra que la CTx puede identificar cambios a lo largo de la gestación normal. El artículo 4 demuestra que el CTx-score obtenido en casos y controles, se relaciona con el SPTB.

Web crawlers are the component of a search engine that must traverse the Web, gathering documents in a local repository for indexing by a search engine so that they can be ranked by their relevance to user queries. Whenever data is replicated in an autonomously updated environment, there are issues with maintaining up-to-date copies of documents. When documents are retrieved by a crawler and have subsequently been altered on the Web, the effect is an inconsistency in user search results. While the impact depends on the type and volume of change, many existing algorithms do not take the degree of change into consideration, instead using simple measures that consider any change as significant. Furthermore, many crawler evaluation metrics do not consider index freshness or the amount of impact that crawling algorithms have on user results. Most of the existing work makes assumptions about the change rate of documents on the Web, or relies on the availability of a long history of change. Our work investigates approaches to improving index consistency: detecting meaningful change, measuring the impact of a crawl on collection freshness from a user perspective, developing a framework for evaluating crawler performance, determining the effectiveness of stateless crawl ordering schemes, and proposing and evaluating the effectiveness of a dynamic crawl approach. Our work is concerned specifically with cases where there is little or no past change statistics with which predictions can be made. Our work analyses different measures of change and introduces a novel approach to measuring the impact of recrawl schemes on search engine users. Our schemes detect important changes that affect user results. Other well-known and widely used schemes have to retrieve around twice the data to achieve the same effectiveness as our schemes. Furthermore, while many studies have assumed that the Web changes according to a model, our experimental results are based on real web documents. We analyse various stateless crawl ordering schemes that have no past change statistics with which to predict which documents will change, none of which, to our knowledge, has been tested to determine effectiveness in crawling changed documents. We empirically show that the effectiveness of these schemes depends on the topology and dynamics of the domain crawled and that no one static crawl ordering scheme can effectively maintain freshness, motivating our work on dynamic approaches. We present our novel approach to maintaining freshness, which uses the anchor text linking documents to determine the likelihood of a document changing, based on statistics gathered during the current crawl. We show that this scheme is highly effective when combined with existing stateless schemes. When we combine our scheme with PageRank, our approach allows the crawler to improve both freshness and quality of a collection. Our scheme improves freshness regardless of which stateless scheme it is used in conjunction with, since it uses both positive and negative reinforcement to determine which document to retrieve. Finally, we present the design and implementation of Lara, our own distributed crawler, which we used to develop our testbed.

Monitoring biophysical variables at a global scale over long time periods is vital to address the climatechange and food security challenges. Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a structure variable giving a measure of the canopysurface for radiation interception and canopy-atmosphere interactions. LAI is an important variable in manyecosystem models and it has been recognized as an Essential Climate Variable. This thesis aims to provide globaland continuous estimates of LAI from satellite observations in near-real time according to user requirements to beused for diagnostic and prognostic evaluations of vegetation state and functioning. There are already someavailable LAI products which show however some important discrepancies in terms of magnitude and somelimitations in terms of continuity and consistency. This thesis addresses these important issues. First, the nature ofthe LAI estimated from these satellite observations was investigated to address the existing differences in thedefinition of products. Then, different temporal smoothing and gap filling methods were analyzed to reduce noiseand discontinuities in the time series mainly due to cloud cover. Finally, different methods for near real timeestimation of LAI were evaluated. Such comparison assessment as a function of the level of noise and gaps werelacking for LAI.Results achieved within the first part of the thesis show that the effective LAI is more accurately retrievedfrom satellite data than the actual LAI due to leaf clumping in the canopies. Further, the study has demonstratedthat multi-view observations provide only marginal improvements on LAI retrieval. The study also found that foroptimal retrievals the size of the uncertainty envelope over a set of possible solutions to be approximately equal tothat in the reflectance measurements. The results achieved in the second part of the thesis found the method withlocally adaptive temporal window, depending on amount of available observations and Climatology as backgroundestimation to be more robust to noise and missing data for smoothing, gap-filling and near real time estimationswith satellite time series.

This thesis focus on consistency of a specific class of fuzzy logic theories that represent certain inference system. This class of theories is defined as theories containing especially so called special axioms representing rules of modeled inference system and evaluated set of formulas representing case data. Functional approach is used to develop three popular fuzzy calculi: the Gödel logic, Łukasiewicz logic and product logic. As a language it is used the language of first order propositional fuzzy logic with valuation. To check consistency we use the concept of inconsistency degree and in Łukasiewicz logic also the principle of polar index. The concept of consistency degree is also described, but not used. Simple algorithm is developed to check consistency of theory upon the basis of inconsistency degree principle. A method of use of polar index is also described and illustrated. For each fuzzy theory a term of corresponding classical theory is defined. Then consistency of fuzzy theories and their corresponding classical theories are compared. The results of comparison are presented on the example of the ad-hoc created diagnostic inference system MEDSYS II. In the end the relation between consistency of fuzzy theory of inference system and it's corresponding theory is introduced for all three used calculi and both contradiction concepts.

The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of international investment law rules in the Economic Constitutional Law, especially those included in investment chapters of Peruvian’s Free Trade Treaties. In particular, it is expected to demonstrate the following (i) International Investment Law is part of Peruvian Legal System; (ii) provisions of these laws are mandatory and should be applied domestically; and (iii) interpretation and implementation of this legal right should be executed consistently with domestic legal system and Peruvian international obligations. This agreed Interpretation between Investment Law and Economic Constitution will have a positive effect in rationalization of public entities actions avoiding abuses and maltreatment to investors, in order to improve investment climate as a key element forachieving country’s sustainable development.
Este trabajo tiene como objeto explorar el impacto que tienen las normas del derecho internacional de las inversiones, en específico aquellas de los capítulos de inversiones de los Tratados de Libre Comercio celebrados por el Perú, en el derecho constitucional económico. En concreto, se pretende demostrar lo siguiente: (i) el derecho internacional de las inversiones es parte del Ordenamiento Jurídico del Perú; (ii) las disposiciones de este derecho son obligatorias y deben aplicarse a nivel interno, y (iii) este derecho debe interpretarse e implementarse de manera coherente con el resto del ordenamiento interno y con las obligaciones internacionales del Perú. Esta interpretación concordada del derecho de inversiones y la Constitución económica tendrá un impacto positivo en la racionalización de la actuaciónde los órganos estatales, evitando arbitrariedades cuando sus medidas puedan afectar a un inversionista. De esta manera mejorará el clima de inversiones, el cual es un elemento necesario para lograr el desarrollo sostenible del país.

Icons surround us but are so ubiquitous they are difficult to observe. Specifically urban cultural icons are a scientific sub-topic under urban morphology's heading and as well are closely related to economic development issues. This study premises that businesses are urban cultural icons which can be computed into four rankings: local cultural icons, focal, zonal, and global cultural icons. And through using dimensional measurement an index is measured. This index can then be used to assess urban morphology. The data set ranges from businesses opening in 1865 to the present. Some are globally-distributed "big boxes"; others are unique one-store shops. The varied data set includes grocery stores, drug stores, prepared food vendors, confectioneries, coffee houses, electronic stores, and an adult entertainment store. Business rankings are premised upon Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs, Tönnies, and Oldenburg's places to socialize, and node intensity of social connection. Time is measured linearly and ordinally. Two formats of geographical ranking are assessed against each other, with the expanded version providing greater insights. Transactions are determined by who initiates them and location where employee enters exchange. Business' internal consistency is based upon product-line inclusion and theme-ing. Scaled measurements are summed with a comparison of Weighted-Place Index Scores against non-weighted Index Scores. As well, economic development impact of businesses is analyzed with three principal components loadings: two business survival and one growth mode. Study results support the use of Weighted-Place Index Scores as compared to nonweighted Index scores when formatting cultural icon index. Index score using four-level geographical ranking ranged from zero to 25. Morning Call Coffee House had lowest ranking (Index score of 3) and Best Buy had the highest score of 22. Weighted-Place Index Scores ranged from zero to 32, with Morning Call Coffee House continuing as lowest score and Starbucks, Bad Ass Coffee, as well ApplianceWorld and Best Buy continuing with four highest scores. This study supports a research method which can be used to measure urban change. By applying Index score within same cities at 20-year increments, sprawl process of globalization within cities can be analyzed.

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The semi-arid region is extremely diverse from the point of view of their natural resources which vary according to factors such as location, soil types, lithology and climate. However, it is perceived fragility of the region under study with regard to human action, making it more susceptible site to degradation processes. Studies evaluating soil properties in Oeste Potiguar in the Rio Grande do Norte state are scarce, but its quantification in different uses and environments in an integrated manner is necessary for understanding and subsequent adoption of appropriate practices to local conditions. This study aimed to evaluate the physical and chemical properties in different agricultural uses, detecting the most sensitive in distinguishing environments. The survey was conducted in the cities of Pau dos Ferros, San Francisco West, Mossoro, Governador Dix-Sept Rosado. The areas under study have particular characteristics as to classification of soils and agricultural uses. physical fertility and analysis analyzes were performed as particle size, plasticity limits and liquidity, plasticity index and gravimetric moisture. The results were analyzed by means of multivariate analysis as the main tool, specifically factor analysis and clustering. There was a greater contribution TOC in Gleysol (favoring the increase in P, Ca 2+ and K +), favored by organic waste and poor drainage on the basis of the clay fraction. Soils showed eutrophic character (V> 50%), influenced by lithology, except Latossolo. In Gleysol and Cambisol occurred increase in liquidity limits and plasticity, due to the increase of the clay fraction and total organic carbon, increasing the gravimetric moisture to achieve crispness, with the exception of Planosol that showed low permeability on the horizon B, where the limits of plasticity and liquidity diverged, thus, greater plasticity index. In particle size analysis profiles showed changes in textural classes, especially the Gleysol with the highest silt fraction, and an indication of young soils with little weathering activity. We conclude that the physical attributes moisture, liquid limit, plastic limit, plasticity index clay, fine sand were the most sensitive in the environments distinction and pH chemicals, (H + Al), V, PST. The Planosol showed low permeability in the B horizon, thus having the greatest plasticity index distancing the limits between them. The areas studied showed acidity to alkalinity reactions with the presence of Al 3+ and (H + Al) and high salinity. The source material favored the increase in calcium, sodium, magnesium and potassium
A região semiárida é extremamente diversificada do ponto de vista de seus recursos naturais que variam de acordo com fatores como localização, tipos de solo, litologia e clima. No entanto, percebe-se fragilidade da região em estudo no que diz respeito à ação antrópica, tornando o local mais susceptível aos processos de degradação. Estudos avaliando atributos do solo na mesorregião do Oeste Potiguar no estado do Rio Grande do Norte são escassos, porém, sua quantificação em diferentes usos e ambientes, de forma integrada se faz necessária para o entendimento e consequente adoção de práticas adequadas às particularidades locais. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar os atributos físicos e químicos em diferentes usos agropecuários, detectando os mais sensíveis na distinção dos ambientes. A pesquisa foi realizada nos municípios de Pau dos Ferros, São Francisco do Oeste, Mossoró, Governador Dix-Sept Rosado. As áreas em estudo possuem características particulares quanto à classificação de seus solos e usos agropecuários. Foram realizadas análises de fertilidade e análises físicas como granulometria, limites de plasticidade e liquidez, índice de plasticidade e umidade gravimétrica. Os resultados foram interpretados por meio de técnicas de análise multivariada como ferramenta principal, especificamente a Análise Fatorial e agrupamento. Verificou-se um maior aporte de COT no Gleissolo (que favoreceu o aumento nos teores de P, Ca 2+ e K +), favorecido pelos resíduos orgânicos e má drenagem em função da fração argila. Os solos apresentaram caráter eutrófico (V> 50%), influenciados pela litologia, com exceção do Latossolo. No Gleissolo e Cambissolo ocorreram aumento nos limites de liquidez e plasticidade, em razão do aumento da fração argila e do carbono orgânico total, com aumento da umidade gravimétrica para atingir a friabilidade, com exceção, do Planossolo que apresentou baixa permeabilidade no horizonte B, onde os limites de plasticidade e liquidez se distanciaram, tendo assim, maior índice de plasticidade. Na análise granulométrica os perfis apresentaram variações nas classes texturais, com destaque para o Gleissolo que apresentou maior fração silte, sendo um indicativo de solos jovens com pouca atividade intempérica. Conclui-se que os atributos físicos umidade, limite de liquidez, limite de plasticidade, índice de plasticidade argila, areia fina foram os mais sensíveis na distinção dos ambientes e os químicos pH, (H+ Al ), V, PST. O Planossolo apresentou baixa permeabilidade no horizonte B, tendo assim o maior índice de plasticidade distanciando os limites entre si. As áreas estudadas apresentaram reações de acidez à alcalinidade com presença de Al3+ e (H + Al) e com elevada salinidade. O material de origem favoreceu o aumento nos teores de cálcio, sódio, magnésio e potássio
2017-01-31

This chapter examines food prices from 1900 to 2015. Despite growing populations, rising incomes, new technologies, globalization, and the emergence of commodities as an asset class, no trends are evident in food price levels or volatility. Still, food prices have averaged higher since 2010, harming the poor and raising fears that agricultural productivity growth has slowed. Consistently since 1900, food prices have been more volatile than the prices of manufactured goods and most other commodity groups. This relation drives terms-of-trade volatility, which slows economic growth. At the farm level, price volatility impedes investment and technology adoption, and encourages low-income livelihood strategies. Past policies to manage food prices have not worked and governments have shifted to policies aimed at mitigating the consequences of high and volatile food prices. Extending the reach of risk markets, warehouse receipt systems, index insurance, and contract farming can be useful policy components.

This chapter provides a survey of four types of party organizational resources in the PPDB: members, money, staff, and territorial units. Findings include that around 3 per cent of voters now join political parties across the democratic world; that German and Spanish parties seem to be the richest in terms of absolute levels of funding, but parties in countries such as Austria and Norway are even stronger relative to the size of their economies or electorates; that party staffing levels are generally quite modest; and that countries where there is an emphasis on what is local tend to have the highest relative concentrations of party branches. Moreover, country differences consistently seem to outweigh party family differences in explaining variation in party organizational resources. The chapter concludes by proposing a composite index of party strength which enables us to construct a rank-ordering of 112 parties according to their overall organizational strength.

AbstractThis chapter analyzes income data from 194 cities in 14 countries to provide an overview of residential segregation patterns in a comparative perspective. We use the dissimilarity index to measure segregation between lower income households and middle-income and higher income households. The results expand results consistent with existing research to a larger number of countries. Higher income households segregation from lower income households is significantly higher than for middle-income households. High-inequality cities are more segregated, on average, than low-inequality ones. It is in the deviation from these patterns, however, that the analysis contributes to a comparative research agenda. It highlights cities and countries that do not fit general trends and raises questions about the relative role of national and local factors in influencing levels of segregation, questions the case studies delve into in the rest of the volume.

Tree cover maps derived from satellite and aerial imagery directly support civil and military operations. However, distinguishing tree cover from other vegetative land covers is an analytical challenge. While the commonly used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can identify vegetative cover, it does not consistently distinguish between tree and low-stature vegetation. The Forest Cover Index (FCI) algorithm was developed to take the multiplicative product of the red and near infrared bands and apply a threshold to separate tree cover from non-tree cover in multispectral imagery (MSI). Previous testing focused on one study site using 2-m resolution commercial MSI from WorldView-2 and 30-m resolution imagery from Landsat-7. New testing in this work used 3-m imagery from PlanetScope and 10-m imagery from Sentinel-2 in imagery in sites across 12 biomes in South and Central America and North Korea. Overall accuracy ranged between 23% and 97% for Sentinel-2 imagery and between 51% and 98% for PlanetScope imagery. Future research will focus on automating the identification of the threshold that separates tree from other land covers, exploring use of the output for machine learning applications, and incorporating ancillary data such as digital surface models and existing tree cover maps.

High-volume fly ash concrete (HVFAC) has improved durability and sustainability properties at a lower cost than conventional concrete, but its early-age properties like strength gain, setting time, and air entrainment can present challenges for application to concrete pavements. This research report helps with the implementation of HVFAC for pavement applications by providing guidelines for HVFAC mix design, testing protocols, and new tools for better quality control of HVFAC properties. Calorimeter tests were performed to evaluate the effects of fly ash sources, cement–fly ash interactions, chemical admixtures, and limestone replacement on the setting times and hydration reaction of HVFAC. To better target the initial air-entraining agent dosage for HVFAC, a calibration curve between air-entraining dosage for achieving 6% air content and fly ash foam index test has been developed. Further, a digital foam index test was developed to make this test more consistent across different labs and operators. For a more rapid prediction of hardened HVFAC properties, such as compressive strength, resistivity, and diffusion coefficient, an oxide-based particle model was developed. An HVFAC field test section was also constructed to demonstrate the implementation of a noncontact ultrasonic device for determining the final set time and ideal time to initiate saw cutting. Additionally, a maturity method was successfully implemented that estimates the in-place compressive strength of HVFAC through wireless thermal sensors. An HVFAC mix design procedure using the tools developed in this project such as the calorimeter test, foam index test, and particle-based model was proposed to assist engineers in implementing HVFAC pavements.

The main objectives of this project were to review the available balanced-mix design (BMD) methodologies, understand the I-FIT and Hamburg Wheel Tracking Test (HWTT) test methods using INDOT asphalt mixtures, and to explore the application of these tests to both a BMD approach and as performance-related Quality Control (QC) and Quality Acceptance (QA) methods. Two QA mixture specimen types, plant-mixed laboratory-compacted (PMLC) and plant-mixed field-compacted (PMFC) were used in the determination of cracking and rutting parameters. Distribution functions for the flexibility index (FI) values and rutting parameters were determined for various mixture types. The effects of specimen geometry and air voids contents on the calculated Flexibility Index (FI) and rutting parameters were investigated. The fatigue characteristics of selected asphalt mixtures were determined using the S-VECD test according to different FI levels for different conditions. A typical full-depth pavement section was implemented in FlexPAVE to explore the cracking characteristics of INDOT asphalt mixtures by investigating the relationship between the FI values of QA samples with the FlexPAVE pavement performance predictions. The FI values obtained from PMFC specimens were consistently higher than their corresponding PMLC specimens. This study also found that FI values were affected significantly by variations in specimen thickness and air voids contents, having higher FI values with higher air voids contents and thinner specimens. These observations do not agree with the general material-performance expectations that better cracking resistance is achieved with lower air voids content and thicker layers. Additionally, PG 70-22 mixtures show the lowest mean FI values followed by the PG 76-22 and 64-22 mixtures. The same order was observed from the ΔTc (asphalt binder cracking index) of INDOT’s 2017 and 2018 projects. Finally, it was found that the HWTT showed reasonable sensitivity to the different characteristics (e.g., aggregate sizes, binder types, and air voids contents) of asphalt mixtures. Mixtures containing modified asphalt binders showed better rut resistance and higher Rutting Resistance Index (RRI) than those containing unmodified binders.

The increased use of softer binders in Illinois over the past decade is primarily attributed to the increased use of recycled materials in asphalt pavement construction. The shift in demand of using PG 58-28 over PG 64-22 has resulted in potential alternative methods to produce softer binders more economically using proprietary products. However, there are challenges in using these proprietary products for asphalt modification because of uncertainty in their long-term performance and significant variability in binder chemistry. The current SuperPave performance grading specification for asphalt binders is insufficient in differentiating binders produced from these modifiers. Therefore, the objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of various softener-type asphalt binder modifiers using a wide array of rheological and chemistry tests for their integration into the Illinois Department of Transportation’s material specifications. The small-strain rheological tests and their parameters allowed for consistent grouping of modified binders and can be used as surrogates to identify performing and nonperforming asphalt binders. A new parameter, Δ|G*|peak τ, was developed from the linear amplitude sweep test and showed potential to discriminate binders based on their large-strain behavior. Chemistry-based parameters were shown to track aging and formulation changes. The modifier sources were identified using fingerprint testing and were manifested in the modified binder chemical and compositional characteristics. The two sources of base binders blended with the modifiers governed the aging rate of the modified binders. Mixture performance testing using the Illinois Flexibility Index Test and the Hamburg Wheel-Track Test were consistent with the rheological and chemical findings, except for the glycol amine-based modified binder, which showed the worst cracking performance with the lowest flexibility index among the studied modifiers. This was contrary to its superior rheological performance, which may be attributed to lower thermal stability, resulting in high mass loss during mixing. According to the characterization of field-aged binders, laboratory aging of two pressurized aging vessel cycles or more may represent realistic field aging of 10 to 15 years at the pavement surface and is able to distinguish modified binders. Therefore, an extended aging method of two pressurized aging vessel cycles was recommended for modified binders. Two different testing suites were recommended for product approval protocol with preliminary thresholds for acceptable performance validated with field-aged data.

High-volume fly ash concrete (HVFAC) is more cost-efficient, sustainable, and durable than conventional concrete. This report presents a state-of-the-art review of HVFAC properties and different fly ash characterization methods. The main challenges identified for HVFAC for pavements are its early-age properties such as air entrainment, setting time, and strength gain, which are the focus of this research. Five fly ash sources in Illinois have been repeatedly characterized through x-ray diffraction, x-ray fluorescence, and laser diffraction over time. The fly ash oxide compositions from the same source but different quarterly samples were overall consistent with most variations observed in SO3 and MgO content. The minerals present in various fly ash sources were similar over multiple quarters, with the mineral content varying. The types of carbon present in the fly ash were also characterized through x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, loss on ignition, and foam index tests. A new computer vision–based digital foam index test was developed to automatically capture and quantify a video of the foam layer for better operator and laboratory reliability. The heat of hydration and setting times of HVFAC mixes for different cement and fly ash sources as well as chemical admixtures were investigated using an isothermal calorimeter. Class C HVFAC mixes had a higher sulfate imbalance than Class F mixes. The addition of chemical admixtures (both PCE- and lignosulfonate-based) delayed the hydration, with the delay higher for the PCE-based admixture. Both micro- and nano-limestone replacement were successful in accelerating the setting times, with nano-limestone being more effective than micro-limestone. A field test section constructed of HVFAC showed the feasibility and importance of using the noncontact ultrasound device to measure the final setting time as well as determine the saw-cutting time. Moreover, field implementation of the maturity method based on wireless thermal sensors demonstrated its viability for early opening strength, and only a few sensors with pavement depth are needed to estimate the field maturity.

Lincoln Boyhood National Memorial celebrates the lives of the Lincoln family including the final resting place of Abraham’s mother, Nancy Hanks Lincoln. Lincoln’s childhood in Indiana was a formative time in the life our 16th president. When the Lincoln family arrived in Indiana, the property was covered in the oak-hickory forest type. They cleared land to create their homestead and farm. Later, designers of the memorial felt that it was important to restore woodlands to the site. The woodlands would help visitors visualize the challenges the Lincoln family faced in establishing and maintaining their homestead. Some stands of woodland may have remained, but significant restoration efforts included extensive tree planting. The Heartland Inventory and Monitoring Network began monitoring the woodland in 2011 with repeat visits every four years. These monitoring efforts provide a window into the composition and structure of the wood-lands. We measure both overstory trees and the ground flora within four permanently located plots. At these permanent plots, we record each species, foliar cover estimates of ground flora, diameter at breast height of midstory and overstory trees, and tree regeneration frequency (tree seedlings and saplings). The forest species composition was relatively consistent over the three monitoring events. Climatic conditions measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index indicated mild to wet conditions over the monitoring record. Canopy closure continued to indicate a forest structure with a closed canopy. Large trees (>45 cm DBH) comprised the greatest amount of tree basal area. Sugar maple was observed to have the greatest basal area and density of the 23 tree species observed. The oaks characteristic of the early woodlands were present, but less dominant. Although one hickory species was present, it was in very low abundance. Of the 17 tree species recorded in the regeneration layer, three species were most abundant through time: sugar maple (Acer saccharum), red bud (Cercis canadensis), and ash (Fraxinus sp.). Ash recruitment seemed to increase over prior years and maple saplings transitioned to larger size classes. Ground flora diversity was similar through time, but alpha and gamma diversity were slightly greater in 2019. Percent cover by plant guild varied through time with native woody plants and forbs having the greatest abundance. Nonnative plants were also an important part of the ground flora composition. Common periwinkle (Vinca minor) and Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) continued to be the most abundant nonnative species, but these two species were less abundant in 2019 than 2011. Unvegetated ground cover was high (mean = 95%) and increased by 17% since 2011. Bare ground increased from less than 1% in 2011 to 9% in 2019, but other ground cover elements were similar to prior years. In 2019, we quantified observer error by double sampling two plots within three of the monitoring sites. We found total pseudoturnover to be about 29% (i.e., 29% of the species records differed between observers due to observer error). This 29% pseudoturnover rate was almost 50% greater than our goal of 20% pseudoturnover. The majority of the error was attributed to observers overlooking species. Plot frame relocation error likely contributed as well but we were unable to separate it from overlooking error with our design.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.