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Villa, Guillermo, Lucía Fernández–Ortiz, Jesús Cuervo, Pablo Rebollo, Rafael Selgas, Teresa González, and Javier Arrieta. "Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy Program." Peritoneal Dialysis International: Journal of the International Society for Peritoneal Dialysis 32, no. 2 (March 2012): 192–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.3747/pdi.2011.00037.
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♦BackgroundWe undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis of the Spanish Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT) program for end-stage renal disease patients from a societal perspective. The current Spanish situation was compared with several hypothetical scenarios.♦MethodsA Markov chain model was used as a foundation for simulations of the Spanish RRT program in three temporal horizons (5, 10, and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1) was compared with three different scenarios: increased proportion of overall scheduled (planned) incident patients (scenario 2); constant proportion of overall scheduled incident patients, but increased proportion of scheduled incident patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD), resulting in a lower proportion of scheduled incident patients on hemodialysis (HD) (scenario 3); and increased overall proportion of scheduled incident patients together with increased scheduled incidence of patients on PD (scenario 4).♦ResultsThe incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of scenarios 2, 3, and 4, when compared with scenario 1, were estimated to be, respectively, -€83 150, -€354 977, and -€235 886 per incremental quality-adjusted life year (ΔQALY), evidencing both moderate cost savings and slight effectiveness gains. The net health benefits that would accrue to society were estimated to be, respectively, 0.0045, 0.0211, and 0.0219 ΔQALYs considering a willingness-to-pay threshold of €35 000/ΔQALY.♦ConclusionsScenario 1, the current Spanish situation, was dominated by all the proposed scenarios. Interestingly, scenarios 3 and 4 showed the best results in terms of cost-effectiveness. From a cost-effectiveness perspective, an increase in the overall scheduled incidence of RRT, and particularly that of PD, should be promoted.
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Fîță, Daniel N., Crina Barb, Dragoș Păsculescu, and Leon Pană. "The description and evaluation of technical incident risk on the National Power Grid in the context of power safety growth." MATEC Web of Conferences 290 (2019): 12010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201929012010.
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In the context of increasing the importance of power safety for national security, the security of power systems within the National Power Grid, must be an objective of major and constant interest for the national transmission and system operator. Evolutions in recent decades have shown the increase in vulnerabilities caused by: failure, destruction and/or disruption of technological infrastructures caused by acts of terrorism, natural disaster, negligence in service, work accidents of technical nature, technical incidents, criminal activities and lack of investment. For the critical analysis of the National Power Grid, 4 (four) possible risk scenarios with effects of instability of the power safety and with major effects on the national security were identified, described and evaluated: Risk Scenario 1 - Technical Incident, Risk Scenario 2 - Damage: Technical Incident Sequence, Risk Scenario 3 - Damage: Natural Disaster, Risk Scenario 4 - Damage: Terrorist Attack. The purpose of the paper is to describe and evaluate the Risc Scenario 1- Technical Incident (which is most prevalent) on the power substations and to prevent potential disturbances in the safety of the power supply to consumer.
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Ha, Hye Jong, Young Tae Son, and Dong Wu Kim. "An Analysis of the Use Case Effect of Traffic Operation Scenario in Response to Incidents for Mixed Traffic Situations." Forum of Public Safety and Culture 37 (December 31, 2024): 169–80. https://doi.org/10.52902/kjsc.2024.37.169.
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This study aims to analyze the effects of providing traffic operation strategies to autonomous vehicles in response to incidents in mixed traffic situations involving autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles. The use case scenario of providing detour information for incidents in a living lab where autonomous vehicles are expected to operate is intended to derive the effects of traffic operation strategies through comparison of average travel speeds. In order to analyze the effectiveness of traffic operation strategy in traffic situations where autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles coexist, three scenarios were designed for peak and non-peak traffic conditions, and the average travel time of autonomous vehicles for each autonomous driving service was calculated and analyzed as an indicator for judging the effectiveness of the information provision scenario for detours. The simulation analysis results for scenario 2, where an incident occurs, showed that the average travel speed increased compared to scenario 1, and this was analyzed to reflect the bottleneck caused by the incident (reducing operation from 3 lanes to 1 lane). In scenario 3, which simulates the case where detour information is provided as part of the incident response traffic operation strategy, the average travel time of autonomous vehicles decreases compared to scenario 2 for the occurrence of an incident. Therefore, it is judged that the traffic conditions improves as autonomous vehicles select the detour as a strategy for providing detour information in response to an incident, thereby reducing the demand for vehicles passing through the incident location. This study is significant in that it analyzed the effectiveness of traffic operation strategy by implementing an actual traffic environment as a simulation program for the use case of traffic operation strategy that can be provided to autonomous vehicles when an incident occurs in a mixed situation of autonomous vehicles and manual vehicles, and as an initial study in preparation for the era of autonomous driving, it is a study on mixed situations of autonomous vehicles in urban areas.
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Sudiarno, Adithya, Okto Abdillah, Hammam Dhiyaurrahman Yusdin, Kuntum Khoiro Ummatin, and Izzati Winda Murti. "Effectivity analysis of the scrum framework adaptation in safety performance improvement: A system dynamics approach." Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development 8, no. 9 (September 4, 2024): 7386. http://dx.doi.org/10.24294/jipd.v8i9.7386.
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The rapidly growing construction industry often deals with complex and dynamic projects that pose significant safety risks. One of the state-owned companies in Indonesia is engaged in large-scale toll road construction projects with a high incidence of workplace accidents. This study aims to improve safety performance in toll road construction by implementing the Scrum framework. The study uses a System Dynamics approach to model interactions between the Scrum framework, project management, and work safety subsystems. Various scenarios were designed by modifying controlled variables and system structures, including introducing a punishment entity. These scenarios were evaluated based on their impact on reducing incidents and the incident rate over the project period. The results indicate that the combined scenario significantly reduces incidents and incident rates in different conditions. The study also finds a strong relationship between Scrum framework implementation and improved safety performance, demonstrating a reduction in incidents and incident rates by over 50% compared to existing conditions. This research underlines the effectiveness of the Scrum framework in enhancing safety in construction projects.
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Smart, Colin John, and Ian Maconochie. "How and Why Do You Declare a Major Incident?" Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 23, no. 1 (February 2008): 70–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00005616.
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AbstractIntroduction:The decision to declare a major incident (MI) is not one to be taken lightly, but a delay in doing so may have dire consequences. The aim of this study was to ascertain what factors make specialists from a variety of pro-fessional backgrounds in the United Kingdom determine from an initial visu-al assessment of a scene that a MI should be declared.Methods:Participants were presented with three different scenarios, which were presented pictorially. Their responses were noted.Results:One hundred seventy-eight professionals took part in this study. For Scenario 1 (a road traffic incident), 101 (57%) declared a MI. For a coach rollover in Scenario 2, a MI was declared by 82 (46%) people, and a MI was declared by 156 (87%) for a rail crash in Scenario 3.Forty-six participants had attended a MI previously.The results for declar-ing a MI in this group were: (1) Scenario 1, 25 (54%); (2) Scenario 2, 25 (54%); and (3) Scenario 3, 44 (96%). Of this group, 44 had previously had training before experiencing the MI. Those who had >10 years of service in emergency services were more likely to declare a MI in Scenario 2 and 3.Conclusions:The main problem with the existing system is the interpreta-tion and subjective nature of the word “major”. Specialists incorporate many individual factors into using the word. Future research should focus on the development of a system tied to more objective analysis.
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Schulz, Fredrik, Quynh Nguyen, Anke Baetzner, David Sjöberg, and Lina Gyllencreutz. "Exploring medical first responders’ perceptions of mass casualty incident scenario training: a qualitative study on learning conditions and recommendations for improvement." BMJ Open 14, no. 7 (July 2024): e084925. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2024-084925.
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ObjectiveDespite participating in scenario training, many medical first responders (MFRs) perceive themselves as inadequately prepared to respond to mass casualty incidents (MCIs). The objective of this study was to conduct a comprehensive examination of traditional MCI scenario training methods, focusing on their inherent strengths and limitations. An investigation into the perceptions of MFRs who had participated in MCI scenario training was carried out to identify potential areas for improvement and provide recommendations for refining MCI training protocols.DesignQualitative inductive approach using semistructured interviews that took place between October 2021 and February 2022. Data were analysed with qualitative content analysis.SettingMCI scenario training involving four organisations (three emergency medical services and one search-and-rescue organisation) tasked with responding to MCIs, collectively representing four European Union countries.Participants27 MFRs (17 emergency medical services personnel and 10 search-and-rescue volunteers) were recruited to participate in the study.ResultsTwo categories and seven associated subcategories (shown in parentheses) were identified as influencing the learning outcomes for MFRs: Training in a context mirroring real-world incidents (conducting incident scene risk assessment, realistic representation in casualties, incorporating scenario variety into the curriculum, interagency collaboration, role alignment when training incident site management) and use of a pedagogical framework (allowing for mistakes, the importance of post-training evaluation).ConclusionsThis study reaffirms the value of traditional MCI scenario training and identifies areas for enhancement, advocating for realistic scenarios, interagency collaboration, improved incident site management skills and thorough post-training evaluation. It suggests a shift in MCI training conceptualisation and delivery. The potential of virtual reality technologies as a valuable addition to training methods is explored, with a note on the need for further research to ascertain the long-term effectiveness of these technologies. However, the selection of a training method should consider programme goals, target population and resources.
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Karatsoli, Maria, Martin Margreiter, and Matthias Spangler. "Simulation based Performance Test of Incident Detection Algorithms Using Bluetooth Measurements." Transport and Telecommunication Journal 17, no. 4 (December 1, 2016): 267–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ttj-2016-0023.
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Abstract This article analyzes the use of Bluetooth-based travel times, for Automatic Incident Detection (AID) purposes. Automatic incident messages were derived for simulated data through the use of an AID algorithm, which was developed by Technical University of Munich (TUM). A Vissim model of a 15 kilometre section of A9 motorway in Germany was set up, where different scenarios of traffic situation, incidents and detector layout were introduced and travel times were generated, processed and then run through the TUM algorithm. The performance measures Detection Rate (DR), False Alarm Rate (FAR) and Mean Time To Detect (MTTD) were used for the analysis of the incident messages' quality of the simulated data and compared for every incident scenario. Local data were also generated in the Vissim model and used by VKDiff algorithm for incident detection. A comparison of the quality of the incident messages of both TUM and VKDiff algorithm was conducted.
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Venkatanarayana, Ramkumar, Brian L. Smith, and Hyungjun Park. "Scenario-Driven Computer-Based Regional Incident Management Training." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2064, no. 1 (January 2008): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2064-01.
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Andrade, Fernando Oliveira de, Cristiano Maciel, Roberto Carlos Moro Filho, and Marcelo Marques. "Numerical simulation of the neighborhood effects on the wind loading over standard model-scale tall buildings." Revista Eletrônica em Gestão, Educação e Tecnologia Ambiental 24 (December 4, 2020): e2. http://dx.doi.org/10.5902/2236117062656.
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Numerical simulations of atmospheric flow were carried out in this study in order to evaluate the neighborhood effects on the wind loading over standard model-scale tall buildings. The computational models were developed by solving the steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS equations) with turbulence treated by a k-ε model. Two building positioning scenarios were simulated: scenario-1 consisted of the isolated configuration of a standard model-scale building and scenario-2 was composed of the standard building with a selected neighborhood. Both scenarios were analyzed for wind incidence angles of zero, 45, and 90 degrees. The numerical results were obtained in terms of pressure and force coefficients which allowed the determination of neighborhood factors. The simulations showed that the neighborhood influences the mean wind loading on the faces of the standard building, sometimes amplifying the load (in the case of incident winds at zero and 90 degrees), sometimes attenuating the acting forces (in the case of incident winds at zero and 45 degrees). The numerical results were compared with experimental data and showed similar orders of magnitude suggesting that the simulations correctly describe the physical behavior of the wind action.
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Oriola, Oluwafemi, Adesesan Barnabas Adeyemo, Maria Papadaki, and Eduan Kotzé. "A collaborative approach for national cybersecurity incident management." Information & Computer Security 29, no. 3 (June 28, 2021): 457–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ics-02-2020-0027.
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Purpose Collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management benefits from the huge size of incident information, large-scale information security devices and aggregation of security skills. However, no existing collaborative approach has been able to cater for multiple regulators, divergent incident views and incident reputation trust issues that national cybersecurity incident management presents. This paper aims to propose a collaborative approach to handle these issues cost-effectively. Design/methodology/approach A collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management architecture based on ITU-T X.1056 security incident management framework is proposed. It is composed of the cooperative regulatory unit with cooperative and third-party management strategies and an execution unit, with incident handling and response strategies. Novel collaborative incident prioritization and mitigation planning models that are fit for incident handling in national cybersecurity incident management are proposed. Findings Use case depicting how the collaborative-based national cybersecurity incident management would function within a typical information and communication technology ecosystem is illustrated. The proposed collaborative approach is evaluated based on the performances of an experimental cyber-incident management system against two multistage attack scenarios. The results show that the proposed approach is more reliable compared to the existing ones based on descriptive statistics. Originality/value The approach produces better incident impact scores and rankings than standard tools. The approach reduces the total response costs by 8.33% and false positive rate by 97.20% for the first attack scenario, while it reduces the total response costs by 26.67% and false positive rate by 78.83% for the second attack scenario.
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Wang, Li, Wenrui Huang, Yingnan Huo, and Zeyuan Xiao. "Study on Emergency Decision-Making of Mine External Fires Based on Deduction of Precursory Scenarios." Fire 7, no. 12 (November 23, 2024): 429. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/fire7120429.
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External mine fires are known for their unpredictability, rapid spread, and difficulty in terms of extinguishment, often resulting in severe casualties and property damage when not managed swiftly. This study examines the progression of coal mine fire incidents through scenario deduction and presents an emergency decision-making model based on precursor scenario analysis. We classify precursor elements according to the causes of coal mine fires, organizing scenario elements into states, precursors, and emergency activities using knowledge meta-theory. A dynamic Bayesian network forms the core of the decision-making model, enabling calculation of scenario node probabilities and the development of expert-driven response strategies for critical scenarios. Additionally, we design a comprehensive evaluation index system, utilizing multi-attribute decision-making to establish decision matrices and attribute weights. An improved entropy-weighting TOPSIS method is used to select the optimal emergency decision scheme. The model’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a case study of the “9–27” fire incident at the Chongqing Songzao Coal Mine, where findings affirm the model’s practicality and accuracy in supporting timely, effective emergency responses to external coal mine fires.
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Yoshitake, Hiroshi, and Motoki Shino. "Identification of Critical Scenario Components Based on Driving Database Analysis for Safety Assessment of Automated Driving Systems." Applied Sciences 13, no. 19 (September 27, 2023): 10770. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app131910770.
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A thorough safety assessment of an automated driving system (ADS) is necessary before its introduction into the market and practical application. Scenario-based assessments have received significant attention in research. However, identifying sufficient critical scenarios for ADSs is a major challenge, especially for complex urban environments with a variety of road geometries, traffic rules, and traffic participants. To identify the critical scenarios in this complex environment, it is essential to understand the environmental factors that lead to safety-critical events (e.g., accidents and near-miss incidents). Thus, this study proposes a method for identification of critical scenario components by analyzing near-miss incident data and extracting environmental factors that induce driver errors. In this study, we applied the proposed method to a scenario, in which an ego vehicle makes a right turn at a signalized intersection with an oncoming vehicle approaching the intersection in left-hand traffic, as a case study. The proposed method identified two components (dynamic occlusion caused by oncoming right-turn vehicles and change in traffic lights) that were both critical and challenging for ADSs. The case study results showed the usefulness of the identified components and the validity of the proposed method, which can extract critical scenario components explicitly.
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Cook, Cynthia A., and Richard J. Harris. "Attributions About Spouse Abuse in Cases of Bidirectional Battering." Violence and Victims 10, no. 2 (January 1995): 143–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1891/0886-6708.10.2.143.
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A particularly misunderstood type of domestic violence is the type of incident where both partners are violent, for example, where one partner is violent and the other is violent in self-defense. The present study examined third-party attributions about such battering. Subjects read a fictitious newspaper report of a domestic battering incident and then filled out rating scales about the participants and the event. The scenario described either an “asymmetric battering” incident where one party instigated the violence and was much more violent than the other, or an incident which was more of a mutual fight (symmetric battering). Both scenarios ended with one person seriously injuring the other. Each scenario had two versions, in which either the husband or the wife instigated the violence. Results showed that the person who had instigated the violence was judged more harshly and was given more responsibility for their actions in both the symmetric and asymmetric battering conditions. The less violent partner in the asymmetric conditions was judged to have more right to use force. In the symmetric battering, both parties were assigned blame.
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Son, V. L., V. N. Phong, and T. T. Kien. "Application of the ALOHA simulation model to assess Ammonia leakage from the coal-fired power station of Duyen Hai 2 Thermal Power Plant." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1226, no. 1 (August 1, 2023): 012014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1226/1/012014.
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Abstract The widespread use of hazardous chemicals in industrial activities can cause chemical accidents in which Ammonia gas leaks are one of the most concerning issues due to their toxic nature and adverse impacts on workers and the working environment. Therefore, accident risk prediction is essential to reduce the extent of damage and develop plans in place for minimizing and controlling unexpected hazards. This paper aims to provide an estimation of Ammonia leakage by ALOHA simulation software with scenarios for Ammonia leakage escaping from storage tanks of a coal-fired power station at Duyen Hai 2 Thermal Power Plant, Tra Vinh province. Three scenarios of chemical (Ammonia) incidents were simulated to assess the degree and extent of the impacts of chemical leakage on humans and the environments, including monthly, seasonally scenarios (for single chemical tank incidents) and two-tank incident scenario. The results show that the monthly scenario in April (29°C; 80,4%; 3,4m/s) and November (27,14°C; 87,2%; 2,9m/s) have the largest influence and the worst effects with the radius of red zone damage of 3.3km from the leakage site. The scenario of the dry season has much higher damage than the rainy one with the red zone is 4.6km. Meanwhile, the damage area of red zone caused by chemical incidents from two tanks leakage is 5.3km. This finding provide the top management level of the factory with a critical view of damage extent caused by chemical incidents for which a proactive plan should be available to prevent from the risks of explosion.
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Nguyen Minh, Hai, and Vinh Vu Duy. "Simulation of impact of organic and nutrient pollutants from Nghi Son economic zone on Thanh Hoa coastal waters, North Centre Vietnam." Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Biển 21, no. 1 (March 31, 2021): 23–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15625/1859-3097/15091.
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Nghi Son is an economic zone oriented to developing heavy industry and petrochemicals and has potential to become the most substantial economic zone in the North Central region. The zone is also one of the potential waste sources polluting Thanh Hoa coastal waters. Numeric modeling using Delft3D software package with different scenarios: Current status scenario, controlled discharge scenario, and incident scenario was developed to simulate states of some pollutants of organics and nutrients from the zone to Thanh Hoa coastal waters in different periods. The simulation results show that under controlled discharge (increasing pollutant concentration with the control of waste discharge), the concentration of pollutants was increasing and high around discharging points. In contrast, in incident case from the zone, pollutant concentrations increase markedly both in the magnitude and in the impact range to surrounding areas. When an accident happens, the influence scale will be expanded significantly, especially in the rainy season.
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Lee, Yong-Joon. "A Study on a Scenario-Based Security Incident Prediction System for Cybersecurity." Applied Sciences 14, no. 24 (December 18, 2024): 11836. https://doi.org/10.3390/app142411836.
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In the 4th industrial era, the proliferation of interconnected smart devices and advancements in AI, particularly big data and machine learning, have integrated various industrial domains into cyberspace. This convergence brings novel security threats, making it essential to prevent known incidents and anticipate potential breaches. This study develops a scenario-based evaluation system to predict and evaluate possible security accidents using the MITRE ATT&CK framework. It analyzes various security incidents, leveraging attack strategies and techniques to create detailed security scenarios and profiling services. Key contributions include integrating security logs, quantifying incident likelihood, and establishing proactive threat management measures. The study also proposes automated security audits and legacy system integration to enhance security posture. Experimental results show the system’s efficacy in detecting and preventing threats, providing actionable insights and a structured approach to threat analysis and response. This research lays the foundation for advanced security prediction systems, ensuring robust defense mechanisms against emerging cyber threats.
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Yang, Fei, Meixia Liao, Pusheng Wang, and Yongguang Liu. "Cost-effectiveness analysis of renal replacement therapy strategies in Guangzhou city, southern China." BMJ Open 11, no. 2 (February 2021): e039653. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039653.
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ObjectivesThis study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of three renal replacement therapy (RRT) modalities as well as proposed changes of scheduled policies in RRT composition in Guangzhou city.MethodsFrom a payer perspective, we designed Markov model-based cost-effectiveness analyses to compare the cost-effectiveness of three RRT modalities and four different scheduled policies to RRT modalities in Guangzhou over three time horizons (5, 10 and 15 years). The current situation (scenario 1: haemodialysis (HD), 73%; peritoneal dialysis (PD), 14%; kidney transplantation (TX), 13%) was compared with three different scenarios: an increased proportion of incident RRT patients on PD (scenario 2: HD, 47%; PD, 40%; TX, 13%); on TX (scenario 3: HD, 52%; PD, 14%; TX, 34%); on both PD and TX (Scenario 4: HD, 26%; PD, 40%; TX, 34%).ResultsOver 5-year time horizon, HD was dominated by PD. At a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of US$44 300, TX was cost-effective compared with PD with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$35 518 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. The scenario 2 held a dominant position over the scenario 1, with a net saving of US$ 5.92 million and an additional gain of 6.24 QALYs. The scenarios 3 and 4 were cost-effective compared with scenario 1 at a WTP threshold of US$44 300. The above results were consistent across the three time horizons.ConclusionsTX is the most cost-effective RRT modality, followed in order by PD and HD. The strategy with an increased proportion of incident patients on PD and TX is cost-effective compared with the current practice pattern at the given WTP threshold. The planning for RRT service delivery should incorporate efforts to increase the utilisation of PD and TX in China.
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Ziauddeen, Hisham, Naresh Subramaniam, and Deepti Gurdasani. "Modelling the impact of lockdown-easing measures on cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths in England." BMJ Open 11, no. 9 (September 2021): e042483. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-042483.
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ObjectivesTo assess the potential impacts of successive lockdown-easing measures in England, at a point in the COVID-19 pandemic when community transmission levels were relatively high.DesignWe developed a Bayesian model to infer incident cases and reproduction number (R) in England, from incident death data. We then used this to forecast excess cases and deaths in multiple plausible scenarios in which R increases at one or more time points.SettingEngland.ParticipantsPublicly available national incident death data for COVID-19 were examined.Primary outcomeExcess cumulative cases and deaths forecast at 90 days, in simulated scenarios of plausible increases in R after successive easing of lockdown in England, compared with a baseline scenario where R remained constant.ResultsOur model inferred an R of 0.75 on 13 May when England first started easing lockdown. In the most conservative scenario modelled where R increased to 0.80 as lockdown was eased further on 1 June and then remained constant, the model predicted an excess 257 (95% CI 108 to 492) deaths and 26 447 (95% CI 11 105 to 50 549) cumulative cases over 90 days. In the scenario with maximal increases in R (but staying ≤1), the model predicts 3174 (95% CI 1334 to 6060) excess cumulative deaths and 421 310 (95% CI 177 012 to 804 811) cases. Observed data from the forecasting period aligned most closely to the scenario in which R increased to 0.85 on 1 June, and 0.9 on 4 July.ConclusionsWhen levels of transmission are high, even small changes in R with easing of lockdown can have significant impacts on expected cases and deaths, even if R remains ≤1. This will have a major impact on population health, tracing systems and healthcare services in England. Following an elimination strategy rather than one of maintenance of R ≤1 would substantially mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic within England.
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Carter-Groves, Melany. "Global Dispersant Stockpile: Part of the Industry Solution to Worst Case Scenario Readiness." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2014, no. 1 (May 1, 2014): 504–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2014.1.504.
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ABSTRACT Within the oil industry, the lessons learned from the Macondo incident, have prompted an in depth look into readiness for worst case scenarios in the future, giving rise to a number of Joint Industry Projects. One such project was the development of response-ready subsea well capping devices. Another initiative highlighted the need for an available stockpile of dispersant. The needs for this dispersant stock stems from the unprecedented amounts of dispersant called on during the Macondo incident, for use on the surface and through the new subsea injector systems. Dispersant suppliers need several weeks to begin production, and ongoing supply flagged up limitations in acquiring some of the raw materials for manufacture. Oil Spill Response Ltd was given the responsibility of procuring and managing the stockpile for our member companies, as the project manager in charge of procurement and implementation. It made sense to utilize and expand on the logistics already in place for the dispersant stockpile. The dispersant purchased was 5000 cu.m. of the 3 dispersants with the widest global approval for use. The figure of 5000m3 was based on what was needed 30 days of subsea and aerial dispersant use during the Macondo incident. Unfortunately, following the incident, there were a number of 3rd party claims against the manufacturers of the dispersant. This prompted the dispersant suppliers to seek protection from the legal implications of dispersant use. Achieving this protection had to be practical for those purchasing dispersants , as well as robust enough that the dispersant suppliers were comfortable supplying their product. This resulted in a significant amount of months spent on legal negotiations. Once an agreement was reached on these issues were settled, and after the initial 30 days of dispersant for response is in place, the ongoing project will look at working with suppliers to establish stocks of raw materials and making production more reliable during an incident, as well as working with members of the industry on contingency planning and logistical considerations surrounding the stock. Companies who subscribed to the stockpile will have 5,000 cu.m. of dispersant, split into various locations around the globe, available for both small and large incidents. Future scope for the stockpile includes tabletop and mobilization exercises to test the speed and logistics of response in preparation for an incident, which the hope is, will never happen.
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Wen, Tao, Adriana-Simona Mihăiţă, Hoang Nguyen, Chen Cai, and Fang Chen. "Integrated Incident Decision-Support using Traffic Simulation and Data-Driven Models." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 42 (July 16, 2018): 247–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198118782270.
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This paper introduces the framework of an innovative incident management platform with the main objective of providing decision-support and situation awareness for transport management purposes on a real-time basis. The logic of the platform is to detect and then classify incidents into two types: recurrent and non-recurrent, based on their frequency and characteristics. Under this logic, recurrent incidents trigger the data-driven machine learning module which can predict and analyze the incident impact, in order to facilitate informed decisions for transport management operators. Non-recurrent incidents activate the simulation module, which then evaluates quantitatively the performance of candidate response plans in parallel. The simulation output is used for choosing the most appropriate response plan for incident management. The current platform uses a data processing module to integrate complementary data sets, for the purpose of improving modeling outputs. Two real-world case studies are presented: 1) for recurrent incident management using a data-driven model, and 2) for non-recurrent incident management using traffic simulation with parallel scenario evaluation. The case studies demonstrate the viability of the proposed incident management framework, which provides an integrated approach for real-time incident decision-support on large-scale networks.
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Lin, Ming-Wei, Chih-Long Pan, Jet-Chau Wen, Cheng-Haw Lee, Zong-Ping Wu, Chin-Fu Chang, and Chun-Wen Chiu. "An innovative emergency transportation scenario for mass casualty incident management." Medicine 100, no. 11 (March 19, 2021): e24482. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/md.0000000000024482.
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Lee, Moonjin, and Sangwoo Oh. "Development of Response Scenario for a Simulated HNS Spill Incident." Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment and safety 20, no. 6 (December 31, 2014): 677–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2014.20.6.677.
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Baird, Carol L., Nora L. Bensko, Paul A. Bell, Wayne Viney, and William Douglas Woody. "Gender Influence on Perceptions of Hostile Environment Sexual Harassment." Psychological Reports 77, no. 1 (August 1995): 79–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1995.77.1.79.
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Perceptions of sexual harassment were investigated as a function of perpetrators' and recipients' gender. Undergraduate students (100 women, 98 men) were presented 34 scenarios of men and women interacting at work. Participants were asked to read carefully each scenario and indicate on a scale anchored by 1 (strongly disagree) and 7 (strongly agree) their opinions as to whether the scenario represented an incident of sexual harassment. Analysis indicated that women rated “hostile environment” scenarios as more harassing than men, and male perpetrators were rated as more harassing than female perpetrators. Even though some scenarios were rated as more harassing than others, the full range of the 7-point scale was used on every scenario, indicating a lack of agreement on what constitutes harassment. This lack of agreement highlights the debate within the legal community about whether the “reasonable person” or the “reasonable woman” standard should be used to judge sexual harassment in the workplace.
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Mosier, Kathleen L., Michael Bartholomew, Eva Meng, and Luiz Xavier. "Risk, Ambiguity, and Information Use in an Ethical Decision Dilemma." Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 51, no. 4 (October 2007): 263–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193120705100425.
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We used the situational context of purported unethical organizational behavior to examine the impact of risk to self, risk to society, and cue ambiguity on information search strategies and ultimate decision. Participants completed eight experimental scenarios using a web-based interface. They read each scenario stem and accessed information until they could make a decision about whether or not to ‘blow the whistle’ on the organization. Significant effects on number of same-type cue boxes accessed were found for ambiguity and risk to society levels. Risk to self and risk to society impacted participants' likelihood of reporting the scenario incident. A significant risk to self by risk to society interaction suggested that low risk to self enhanced willingness to report incidents especially when risk to society was high. Results suggest that individuals will respond to this type of risky situation by a) trying to be more sure of the situation, and b) focusing more on risks to others than to themselves. Implications are discussed.
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McGuire, Sarayna S., Aidan F. Mullan, and Casey M. Clements. "Workplace Violence in the Emergency Department: Case Study on Staff and Law Enforcement Disagreement on Reportable Crimes." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 11 (June 2, 2022): 6818. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19116818.
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Violence in the emergency department (ED) remains underreported. Patient factors are often cited as a source of confusion in determining the culpability of perpetrators and whether to proceed with incident reporting. This study’s objective was to determine how ED staff at one academic medical center perceive certain clinical scenarios and how this compares to local law enforcement officers (LEO). An anonymous survey with 4 scenarios was sent to multidisciplinary ED staff at our academic medical center, as well as local LEO and inquired whether respondents considered any of the scenarios to be reportable as a crime. Chi-square analysis was used for comparison. The study was deemed exempt by the Institutional Review Board. A total of 261 ED staff and 77 LEO completed the survey. Both groups were equally likely to believe that a reportable crime occurred in Scenario 1, where a patient with dementia punches a nurse (LEO: 26.0% vs. ED: 31.4%, p = 0.44), and in Scenario 2, where an intoxicated patient spits at a phlebotomist (LEO: 97.4% vs. ED: 95.0%, p = 0.56). However, the two groups differed in Scenario 3, in which a patient with delirium makes verbal threats to a doctor (LEO: 20.8% vs. ED: 42.9%, p < 0.001), and Scenario 4, in which a patient’s parent throws a chair at a medical student (LEO: 66.2% vs. ED: 81.2%, p = 0.009). As health systems seek to improve workplace safety, it is important to consider the barriers to reporting violent incidents, including staff’s understanding of what acts may constitute reportable violence, as well as LEO understanding of the unique ED environment and patient responsibilities.
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Barbón, Arsenio, Jaime Martínez-Suárez, Luis Bayón, and Covadonga Bayón-Cueli. "Photovoltaic Power Plants with Horizontal Single-Axis Trackers: Influence of the Movement Limit on Incident Solar Irradiance." Applied Sciences 15, no. 3 (January 24, 2025): 1175. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15031175.
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This paper presents an energy analysis of the influence of the movement limit of a horizontal single-axis tracker on the incident energy on the photovoltaic field. The procedure used comprises the following steps: (i) the determination of the periods of operation of a horizontal single-axis tracking; (ii) the analytical determination of the annual, daily, and hourly incident solar irradiance on the photovoltaic field; (iii) the validation of the model; and (iv) the definition of the evaluation indicators. The study focused on three photovoltaic power plants in Spain (Miraflores PV power plant, Basir PV power plant, and Canredondo PV power plant). Four evaluation indicators (annual energy loss, daily energy loss, beam component, and diffuse component) and ten movement limits, ranging from ±50 (°) to ±60 (°), were analysed. In Spain, photovoltaic power plants usually have a movement limit of ±60 (°), which is why it has been called the current scenario. According to this study, the following conclusions can be drawn: (i) It is necessary to calculate the optimal movement limit for each site under study at the design stage of the PV power plant. Although the energy loss per square metre for not using the optimal boundary movement is small, due to the large surface of the photovoltaic field, these energy losses cannot be neglected. For example, in the Canredondo photovoltaic power plant, the limit movement is not optimised and the annual energy loss is 18.49 (MWh). (ii) The higher the range of the limiting movement, the shorter the duration of the static operating period. Therefore, when the current scenario starts the normal tracking mode (where the beam component is maximised), the other scenarios remain in the static mode of operation in a horizontal position, which impairs the incidence of the beam component and favours the diffuse component. (iii) The type of day, in terms of cloudiness index, prevailing at a given location affects the choice of the movement limit. If the beam component is predominant, it favours the performance of the current scenario. In contrast, if the diffuse component is predominant, it favours scenarios other than the current scenario.
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Leclercq, M. G., and A. G. Robertson. "(A216) Ashmore Reef Boat Explosion: A Nightmare Scenario that Became a Reality." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 26, S1 (May 2011): s60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x11002068.
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At approximately 06:15h on 16 April 2009, there was an explosion and subsequent fire onboard the Suspected Illegal Entry Vessel (SIEV) 36. The vessel was located in the vicinity of the Ashmore Reef, approximately 610 kilometers north of Broome in Western Australia (WA). Onboard were members of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN), 47 asylum seekers, and two crew members. Traveling with SIEV 36 were the RAN Patrol Boats, HMAS Childers, and HMAS Albany. The explosion resulted in five deaths and a large number of casualties with severe burn injuries, and a smaller number with concurrent trauma injuries. The Ashmore Reef incident was unique in that it involved the medical management and evacuation of 44 injured foreign nationals (31 seriously injured) in an extremely remote location. It resulted in an unprecedented health response from multiple agencies including local, regional, and state governments, commonwealth government agencies, non-government organizations, and private industry. The mission objective for this incident was to retrieve and evacuate multiple seriously injured casualties and stabilize them for safe transport to definitive care. The mission objective was achieved for the Ashmore Reef incident with no further deaths. As with all disasters, many lessons have been learned, and recommendations have been formulated. The logistic requirements to successfully complete such a mission have been reinforced as a result of this incident, as this was the most logistically challenging mass-casualty incident in WA history.
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Turin, Fred, Lisa Steiner, and Kim Cornelius. "Evaluation of Mining Activities Using a Scenario Interview Approach." Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting 42, no. 15 (October 1998): 1108–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193129804201511.
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NIOSH researchers have been examining underground coal mining activities in order to evaluate work crew hazards. In 1994 a continuous mining machine operator was killed by falling roof during extended cut mining. Many aspects of the incident were used by NIOSH researchers to develop a scenario interview. The goal was to provide a realistic framework for acquiring frank and detailed insights. The interview consists of two sections. The first describes the underground mining conditions. The second recounts the fatal incident. Each section is supplemented by a diagram and a set of questions addressing relevant safety issues. The interview was administered at three mines that actively take extended cuts. Researchers found the scenario approach to be an effective interview tool as well as an effective hazard awareness and safe work practices training platform.
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Ferguson, Lorna, Laura Huey, Hina Kalyal, and Judith P. Andersen. "Developing a Competency Framework for Police Incident Commanders." Applied Police Briefings 1, no. 3 (January 6, 2025): 65–67. https://doi.org/10.22215/apb.v1i3.5153.
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The competency framework developed from this study involves seven thematic categories with distinct and interrelated concepts essential for effective police incident command. The selection and training of Incident Commanders (ICs) should consider both technical skills and also traits such as humility, emotional stability, and approachability, which are challenging to teach but vital for leadership and teamwork. To that end, traditional police training or years of experience are insufficient for the specific demands of incident command. Scenario-basedtraining is necessary to prepare ICs for situations they manage in this role. Understanding how stress affects decision-making and providing stress management training can help improve the performance and well-being of ICs during incidents.
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Kłos, Ryszard. "The potential underwater rescue scenario in incident defined by DiveSMART project." Zeszyty Naukowe Akademii Marynarki Wojennej, no. 2 (June 30, 2017): 75–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0010.4068.
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This article is one of the series dedicated to the DiveSMART project conducted to better coordination of international underwater rescue operations in the Baltic Sea. The project DiveSMART Baltic has received Flagship status. The article is the second from planned cycle of articles referring tasks realised in the Naval Academy in frame of DiveSMART project. It describes a potential scenario of an action carried out in order to determine which of the existing resources should be applied during underwater search and rescue operations. This subject is connected to the work package two ‘Determine what resources should be in the database’ of the DiveSMART project: Identify different platforms and vessels that the modules could be used on, the adjustment of the transport and rescue modules to these platforms and vessels. Potencjalny przebieg akcji ratowniczej dla katastrofy zdefiniowanej w projekcie DiveSMART Streszczenie: Artykuł należy do serii dotyczącej projektu DiveSMART, który związany jest z zapewnieniem lepszej koordynacji międzynarodowej akcji ratownictwa podwodnego w rejonie Morza Bałtyckiego. Projekt ten otrzymał status „projektu flagowego”. Artykuł jest drugim z planowanego cyklu opisującego realizację zadań przez Akademię Marynarki Wojennej w ramach harmonogramu projektu DiveSMART. Opisano w nim potencjalny przebieg mobilizacji w akcji ratowniczej z wykorzystaniem istniejących zasobów możliwych do wykorzystania w ratownictwie podwodnym. Przeprowadzona gra decyzyjna jest związana z realizacją drugiego pakietu roboczego projektu DiveSMART pt. „Określenie zasobów, które powinny znajdować się w bazie danych”, polegającego na zidentyfikowaniu różnych jednostek pływających, na których możliwy jest transport i wykorzystanie sprzętu ratowniczego. Słowa kluczowe: SAR, poszukiwania i ratownictwo podwodne
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Alothman, Basil, Aldanah Alhajraf, Reem Alajmi, Rawan Al Farraj, Nourah Alshareef, and Murad Khan. "Developing a Cyber Incident Exercises Model to Educate Security Teams." Electronics 11, no. 10 (May 14, 2022): 1575. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/electronics11101575.
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Since cyber attacks are increasing and evolving rapidly, the need to enhance cyber-security defense is crucial. A cyber incident exercise model is a learning technique to provide knowledge about cyber security to enhance a security team’s incident response. In this research work, we proposed a cyber incident model to handle real-time security attacks in various scenarios. The proposed model consisted of three teams: (1) the black team, (2) the red team, and (3) the blue team. The black team was a group of instructors responsible for setting up the environment. They had to educate the red and blue teams about cyber security and train them on facing cyber attacks. Once the training period was completed, the members were divided into two teams to conduct a cyber-security competition in a cyber game scenario. Each of the two teams performed a different task. The red team was the offensive team that was responsible for launching cyber-security attacks. The blue team was the defensive team that was responsible for countering attacks and minimizing the damage caused by attackers; they had to conduct both cyber-security configuration and incident handling. During the scenario, the black team was responsible for guiding and monitoring both the red and the blue teams, ensuring the rules were applied throughout the competition. At the end of the competition, the members of each team changed with each other to make sure every team member was using the knowledge they gained from the training period and every participant was evaluated impartially. Finally, we showed the security team’s offensive and defensive skills via the red team and the blue team, respectively.
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Rijavec, Robert, Rok Marsetič, and Irena Strnad. "Towards Optimal TMS Integration Scenario Based on HRM and SWOT Analysis." Sustainability 15, no. 13 (June 24, 2023): 10004. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151310004.
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To meet the collective goal of providing an efficient, sustainable, and safe transportation system, motorway managers are oriented toward establishing an optimal traffic management system (TMS). However, there are no straightforward guidelines through which to deploy the optimal integration scenario for traffic control centers (TCCs). An important component of TMSs is traffic control decisions, implying that human resources represent a critical feature of a TMS. In this study, we introduce human resource management (HRM) into the process of selecting the most appropriate integration scenario, which is achieved by developing a model to determine the number of employees. We formulated the problem as the mixed integer nonlinear programming problem based on the analysis of traffic incidents and road infrastructure data, considering also the employee voice and some HRM specificities in incident situations. Combining these findings with a SWOT analysis of the possible integration scenarios in Slovenia, we propose the most suitable scenario, in which TMS is organized as a cloud service. Moreover, this study predicts TCCs’ space requirements and identifies threats of neglecting HRM in TMS design. This paper can serve as a guideline and a baseline of expertise for motorway managers to create an effective and sustainable TMS in their region.
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Massahi, Aidin, Mohammed Hadi, Kollol Shams, and Mohamadtaqi Baqersad. "Evaluating Incident Responsive Signal Control Plans using Multi-Resolution Modeling." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 10 (June 4, 2019): 804–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119849403.
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The implementation of incident responsive signal control strategies can be effective in relieving congestion during traffic incidents. The goal of this paper is to develop and evaluate a methodology to assess the impacts of incident responsive signal control. This study demonstrates the utilization of a multi-resolution and multi-scenario modeling approach to support the evaluation and design of incident management strategies and the associated incident responsive signal control. The approach utilizes the strength of mesoscopic simulation-based dynamic traffic assignment modeling to determine route diversion and microscopic simulation to estimate the traffic impacts of incident responsive signal timing. The methods also utilize detailed traffic and incident data to inform the analysis, modeling, and simulation. The utilized methods support the modeling of different traffic patterns, confirm the diversion estimated by modeling tools based on field detector data, provide estimation of capacity drop during arterial incidents with different locations from upstream and downstream signals, and address the need for accurate turning movement volumes resulting from the modeling. Results of the case study indicate that implementation of incident responsive signal control strategies provided a reduction in total delay of through movement in the incident direction of 18.5% and 24.5% for 30-min and 45-min incidents, respectively. The corresponding reductions in total delay of all movements in the segment were 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. These values can be used to inform the return-on-investment as part of planning and operation analysis of active transportation management strategies.
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He, Ling, Qing Yang, Xingxing Liu, Lingmei Fu, and Jinmei Wang. "Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 4 (February 19, 2021): 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18042006.
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As the impact factors of the waste Not-In-My-Back Yard (NIMBY) crisis are complex, and the scenario evolution path of it is diverse. Once the crisis is not handled properly, it will bring adverse effects on the construction of waste NIMBY facilities, economic development and social stability. Consequently, based on ground theory, this paper takes the waste NIMBY crisis in China from 2006 to 2019 as typical cases, through coding analysis, scenario evolution factors of waste NIMBY crisis are established. Furtherly, three key scenarios were obtained, namely, external situation (E), situation state (S), emergency management (M), what is more, scenario evolution law of waste NIMBY crisis is revealed. Then, the dynamic Bayesian network theory is used to construct the dynamic scenario evolution network of waste NIMBY crisis. Finally, based on the above models, Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is taken as a case study, and the dynamic process of scenario evolution network is visually displayed by using Netica. The simulation results show that the scenario evolution network of Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is basically consistent with the actual incident development process, which confirms the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.
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Dhuria, Meera. "Epidemic Trajectory in the Absence of Non-Pharmacological Interventions in India: An Insight into Post Vaccine Introduction Phase." Epidemiology International 05, no. 04 (November 20, 2020): 16–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.24321/2455.7048.202027.
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Background: Non-Pharmacological Interventions (NPIs) have proven to be effective in controlling and reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the population. During the year 2020, before vaccine introduction, India has been through various phases of COVID-19 pandemic response such as nationwide lockdown phase 1 to 4 and unlock phases 1-8. Although India’s vaccination program against COVID-19 has started, it is still in the initial phases and considering the humongous population of India, coverage of entire population with vaccine needs time. Methodology: We designed a model showing the projections of expected incident cases of COVID-19 under two scenarios for the month of February 2021. In the first scenario, Rt value expected to be observed during February 2021 if all the NPIs are removed was considered. In the second scenario, Rt value projected as per the current trend with NPIs in place was considered. Model projections of both these scenarios were done for India and also for Delhi. Result: Our simulation model quantifies the effect of Non-pharmacological interventions on the current pandemic situation in India and Delhi, which concludes that relaxation in preventive measures or COVID-19 appropriate behaviors or ceasing of NPIs shall see an exponential rise in the daily incident cases. Comparing the trajectories for India and Delhi, it can be deduced that if NPIs cease to exist for one month, the daily incident cases can be many times higher of normal in India and also in Delhi by the end of February 2021. Conclusion: NPIs remain to play a major role in containing the spread and minimizing the effects of COVID-19 pandemic. Any kind of relaxation in NPIs can lead to sudden surge of incident cases and correspondingly may increase the death toll.
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Wirtz, John J., Joseph L. Schofer, and David F. Schulz. "Using Simulation to Test Traffic Incident Management Strategies." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1923, no. 1 (January 2005): 82–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105192300109.
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This study tested a dynamic traffic assignment model as a tool for preplanning strategies for managing major freeway incidents. Incidents of various scales and durations were modeled in the northern Chicago, Illinois, highway network, and the impacts of incidents and response actions were measured in lane mile hours of highway links at Level of Service F and spread of congestion to alternate routes around the incident. It was found that the best response action to a given incident scenario was not necessarily intuitive and that implementing the wrong response could worsen congestion on the directly impacted freeway and its surrounding highway network. The simulation model showed that a full closure of the freeway caused congestion to spread to alternate parallel routes around the simulated incident. An event of this scale constitutes a major disruption that may warrant handing off traffic control authority from first responders to a corridor or regional traffic management center. Major arterials accessible from the impacted freeway sometimes need increased capacity to provide access to less congested parallel alternate routes during incidents. The simulation model showed that congestion increases with delayed response, underscoring the benefits of preplanning to speed the implementation of effective incident response actions. Regression analysis using data generated by the simulation demonstrates that incident scale and duration are statistically significant predictors of lane mile hours of congestion in the zone near the incident and on the expressway.
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Glow, Steven D., Vincent J. Colucci, Douglas R. Allington, Curtis W. Noonan, and Earl C. Hall. "Managing Multiple-Casualty Incidents: A Rural Medical Preparedness Training Assessment." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 28, no. 4 (April 18, 2013): 334–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x13000423.
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AbstractObjectiveThe objectives of this study were to develop a novel training model for using mass-casualty incident (MCI) scenarios that trained hospital and prehospital staff together using Microsoft Visio, images from Google Earth and icons representing first responders, equipment resources, local hospital emergency department bed capacity, and trauma victims. The authors also tested participants’ knowledge in the areas of communications, incident command systems (ICS), and triage.MethodsParticipants attended Managing Multiple-Casualty Incidents (MCIs), a one-day training which offered pre- and post-tests, two one-hour functional exercises, and four distinct, one-hour didactic instructional periods. Two MCI functional exercises were conducted. The one-hour trainings focused on communications, National Incident Management Systems/Incident Command Systems (NIMS/ICS) and professional roles and responsibilities in NIMS and triage. The trainings were offered throughout communities in western Montana. First response resource inventories and general manpower statistics for fire, police, Emergency Medical Services (EMS), and emergency department hospital bed capacity were determined prior to MCI scenario construction. A test was given prior to and after the training activities.ResultsA total of 175 firefighters, EMS, law enforcement, hospital personnel or other first-responders completed the pre- and post-test. Firefighters produced higher baseline scores than all other disciplines during pre-test analysis. At the end of the training all disciplines demonstrated significantly higher scores on the post-test when compared with their respective baseline averages. Improvements in post-test scores were noted for participants from all disciplines and in all didactic areas: communications, NIMS/ICS, and triage.ConclusionsMass-casualty incidents offer significant challenges for prehospital and emergency room workers. Fire, Police and EMS personnel must secure the scene, establish communications, define individuals’ roles and responsibilities, allocate resources, triage patients, and assign transport priorities. After emergency department notification and in advance of arrival, emergency department personnel must assess available physical resources and availability and type of manpower, all while managing patients already under their care. Mass-casualty incident trainings should strengthen the key, individual elements essential to well-coordinated response such as communications, incident management system and triage. The practice scenarios should be matched to the specific resources of the community. The authors also believe that these trainings should be provided with all disciplines represented to eliminate training “silos,” to allow for discussion of overlapping jurisdictional or organizational responsibilities, and to facilitate team building.GlowSD, ColucciVJ, AllingtonDR, NoonanCW, HallEC. Managing multiple-casualty incidents: a rural medical preparedness training assessment. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2013;28(4):1-8.
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Holt, William (Biff). "The Use of Scenarios in Contingency Planning." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2001, no. 1 (March 1, 2001): 605–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2001-1-605.
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ABSTRACT Prior to the enactment of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA 90), predesignated On-Scene Coordinators (OSCs) prepared local contingency plans (LCPs) with little opportunity for participation outside the OSC's staff by affected stakeholders. OPA 90 changed the fundamental structure of this vitally important planning tool used to articulate the policies and arrangements for oil spill and hazardous material release in a geographic area. A new plan, called an Area Contingency Plan (ACP), was envisioned to be developed by Area Committees that generally include the principle stakeholders in an area. By and large, the ACP process is working, although the quality of plans varies greatly around the United States. A new planning concept, however, currently in use by some of the leading and most successful businesses in the world, has yet to find its way into planning for oil spills and hazardous substance releases. That new concept, scenario planning, creates the means for capturing the potential for a variety of futures without attempting to predict the future. The Julian N spill in Portland, Maine in 1996 was considered a success in large measure because the incident followed on the heels of a scenario-driven area exercise. Scenario planning formalizes that process in such a way as to make the ACP reflect the consensus—what incidents might occur, what are the critical areas of concern, and how might they be dealt with in an efficient way. It brings together the response community and others in a way that ensures participation, understanding, and cooperation in the planning process when it is most needed—before an incident occurs.
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Hawas, Yaser E., and Hani S. Mahmassani. "Comparative Analysis of Robustness of Centralized and Distributed Network Route Control Systems in Incident Situations." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1537, no. 1 (January 1996): 83–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198196153700112.
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A procedure for providing real-time route guidance in congested vehicular traffic networks is described. The control procedure, implementable in a decentralized scheme, envisions a set of distributed local controllers in the network in which every controller can extract only limited information from detectors. The assignment logic is driven by informed local search procedures and heuristics. A simulation-assignment model was developed and used to assess the effectiveness and robustness of the procedure in dealing with normal as well as incident traffic conditions. A comparative study was undertaken to gauge the performance of the distributed control structure against a benchmark scenario of the time-dependent system-optimal logic in a centralized architecture. The assessment was conducted under various operational scenarios of different incident links, durations, and severity. The findings of the simulation-based experiments indicated that the distributed scheme is more robust than the centralized time-dependent scheme under incident conditions.
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Cooke, G. J., and N. Madhusudhan. "Considerations for Photochemical Modeling of Possible Hycean Worlds." Astrophysical Journal 977, no. 2 (December 1, 2024): 209. https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad8cda.
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Abstract JWST is revolutionising the study of temperate sub-Neptunes, starting with the first detection of carbon-bearing molecules in the habitable-zone sub-Neptune K2-18 b. The retrieved abundances of CH4 and CO2 and nondetection of NH3 and CO in K2-18 b are consistent with prior predictions of photochemical models for a Hycean world with a habitable ocean. However, recent photochemical modeling raised the prospect that the observed abundances may be explained by a mini-Neptune scenario instead. In this study, we explore these scenarios using independent photochemical modeling with K2-18 b as a case study. We find the previous results to be sensitive to a range of model assumptions, such as the photochemical cross sections, incident stellar spectrum, surface pressure, UV albedo, and metallicity, significantly affecting the resulting abundances. We explore a wide model space to investigate scenarios that are compatible with the retrieved molecular abundances for K2-18 b. Our analysis shows that the previously favored mini-Neptune scenario is not compatible with most of the retrieved abundances, while the Hycean scenarios, both inhabited and uninhabited, provide better agreement. An uninhabited Hycean scenario explains most of the abundance constraints, except CH4, which is generally underabundant but dependent on the model assumptions. The inhabited Hycean scenario is compatible with all the abundances if the observed CH4 is assumed to be predominantly biogenic. Our results underscore the importance of systematic photochemical modeling and accurate interpretation of chemical abundance constraints for candidate Hycean worlds.
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Bowman, Sara E., and Wendy A. Rogers. "Understanding Decision Making Among Direct Care Workers in Assisted Living." Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making 10, no. 4 (July 7, 2016): 369–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1555343416656952.
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An increase in the older adult population will likely be associated with an increased need for long-term-care communities, such as assisted living. A primary goal of assisted living communities is to help residents maintain their health and well-being. To accomplish this goal, direct care workers employed in these settings are responsible for monitoring residents for cues that might signal problems and then responding appropriately. However, very little is known about these workers’ decision making. To gain a better understanding, direct care workers from assisted living facilities took part in a critical incident interview and a scenario-based interview. The interview data revealed various cues that were categorized as cognitive, physical, or emotional in nature. Specific explanations for the scenarios were primarily that the situation was the result of a cognitive/emotional/social issue or a physical health issue. The type and number of explanations varied widely from scenario to scenario. Of the actions participants described taking to handle the scenarios, gathering and using information was discussed more than any other action. This research has implications for training of formal and informal caregivers and also highlights the potential need for decision support systems in this domain.
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Herr, Vincent, Adam K. Kochanski, Van V. Miller, Rich McCrea, Dan O'Brien, and Jan Mandel. "A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations in wildland fire suppression decisions." International Journal of Wildland Fire 29, no. 3 (2020): 282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf18237.
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A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations is proposed and deployed. The core of the method is the analysis of outcomes of hypothetical fire suppression scenarios generated using a coupled atmosphere–fire behaviour model, based on decisions made by an experienced wildfire incident management team with and without the benefits of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations and the WRF-SFIRE wildfire behaviour simulation system. The scenarios were based on New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas fire. For each scenario, fire break line location decisions served as inputs to the model, generating fire progression outcomes. Fire model output was integrated with a property database containing thousands of coordinates and property values and other asset values to estimate the total losses associated with each scenario. An attempt to estimate the socioeconomic impact of satellite and modelling data used during the decision-making process was made. We analysed the impact of Earth observations and include considerations for estimating other socioeconomic impacts.
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Patrick, Laura, and Cliff Barber. "Tabletop Exercises-Preparing Through Play." International Oil Spill Conference Proceedings 2001, no. 1 (March 1, 2001): 363–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.7901/2169-3358-2001-1-363.
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ABSTRACT The Vancouver International Airport (the Airport) is Canada's second busiest airport, handling approximately 16 million passengers, 370,000 aircraft movements. and 1.5 billion liters (400 million gallons) of aviation fuel annually. The Airport is located on an island in the estuary of the Fraser River, a major migration corridor for salmon. The Fraser River estuary is on the Pacific Flyway. Twice in the past 20 years, a major fuel spill on the Airport has reached the Fraser River. The Vancouver International Airport Authority's (Airport Authority) Environmental Emergency Response Program places a dual emphasis on prevention and emergency response. Key objectives include:Fostering cooperation among tenants, response agencies, and the Airport AuthorityEnsuring a quick, safe, and effective response to spillsReducing the severity and frequency of spills One of the program tools used, and the subject of this paper, is a tabletop exercise. A tabletop exercise brings together various response organizations in an environment where a scripted scenario can be worked from the comfort of a meeting room. The Airport Authority has used tabletop exercises for the past 8 years to practice various emergency scenarios that can occur at an airport (e.g., plane crashes, bomb threats, and hazardous material incidents). The frequency of exercises is planned. The specific scenario to be exercised purposely is not identified too far in advance, allowing for a timely response to actual incidents or near incidents. For example, a tenant had a major fuel spill involving a mobile refueler. The incident response was well managed, with the tenant undertaking responsibility for the long-term site remediation. However, other fueling tenants were not sure they were as well prepared. Therefore, the next tabletop exercise was tailored to allow all fuel-handling tenants, including government agencies and Airport Authority response management to take part in an event mimicking the actual spill, thus adding an element of reality and urgency to the tabletop exercise. Participants appreciate the opportunity to participate in the tabletop exercises. They come away with a solid understanding of their responsibilities and what resources they would bring to a real incident. Most of all, it is an opportunity for the individuals who have taken part in an actual incident to share their experience. While there continues to be more effort on preventing hazardous material spills, well-scripted and facilitated tabletop exercises are excellent tools for preparing for the real thing.
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Schmidt, John K. "Scenario Analysis of Petrochemical Worker Injuries." Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 30, no. 10 (September 1986): 998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193128603001012.
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More traditional approaches to accident reporting and analysis have received much critisism in recent years. The dispute apparently lies in their inability to facilitate intervention development due to a primary non-ergonomic orientation as well as limited suitability as an information management system. Laughery, Petree, Schmidt, Schwartz, Walsh and Imig (1983) in an effort to address these issues adopted the human factors based scenario and analytic technique developed by Drury and Brill (1983) and devised a accident coding and analysis system. In an study of 1,694 operator cases taken over a three year period at a petrochemical facility in the Houston, TX area, five separate accident patterns accounting for 80% of all the reported cases were found. The scenarios are as follows: 1) muscular/skeletal strain in system operation. 2) chemical release due to system breakdown. 3) obstruction in the workspace. 4) unsolicited interface movement during system operation. 5) poor footing in the workspace. A closer analysis of each scenario revealed apparent design flaws and managerial policy problems, that if corrected would reduce incident numbers significantly.
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Akrish, Gal, Oded Rabinovitch, and Yehuda Agnon. "Hydroelasticity and nonlinearity in the interaction between water waves and an elastic wall." Journal of Fluid Mechanics 845 (April 25, 2018): 293–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.207.
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The present study investigates the role of hydroelasticity and nonlinearity in the fundamental problem of the interaction between non-breaking water waves and an elastic wall. To this end, two interaction scenarios are considered: the interaction of a rigid wall supported by springs and a pulse-type wave, and the interaction of an elastic deformable wall and an incident wave group. Both of these scenarios are numerically simulated in a computational domain representing a two-dimensional wave flume. The simplicity of the domain enables one to perform highly efficient simulations using the high-order spectral method (HOSM). Wave generation at the flume entrance and the wave–wall interaction at the flume end are simulated by means of the additional potential concept. In this way, the efficiency that characterizes the original HOSM is preserved for the present non-periodic problems. The investigation of the first scenario reveals the influence of the wall’s dynamical response on the hydrodynamic values. The results show that the maximum wave run-up and wave force are prominently fluctuating around the values corresponding to a fixed wall as a function of the wall’s eigenfrequency, revealing regions of relaxation and amplification. The second scenario studies the effect of the nonlinear evolution of the incident wave group. The high-order wave harmonics generated during the group evolution are found to be significant for predicting extreme hydrodynamic and structural values, and may result in resonant interactions in which hydroelasticity appears to play an important role.
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McGlynn, Nicholas, Ilene Claudius, Amy H. Kaji, Emilia H. Fisher, Alaa Shaban, Mark X. Cicero, Genevieve Santillanes, Marianne Gausche-Hill, Todd P. Chang, and J. Joelle Donofrio-Odmann. "Tabletop Application of SALT Triage to 10, 100, and 1000 Pediatric Victims." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 35, no. 2 (February 14, 2020): 165–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x20000163.
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AbstractIntroduction:The Sort, Access, Life-saving interventions, Treatment and/or Triage (SALT) mass-casualty incident (MCI) algorithm is unique in that it includes two subjective questions during the triage process: “Is the victim likely to survive given the resources?” and “Is the injury minor?”Hypothesis/Problem:Given this subjectivity, it was hypothesized that as casualties increase, the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of the tool would decline, due to an increase in the number of patients triaged as Minor and Expectant.Methods:A pre-collected dataset of pediatric trauma patients age <14 years from a single Level 1 trauma center was used to generate “patients.” Three trained raters triaged each patient using SALT as if they were in each of the following scenarios: 10, 100, and 1,000 victim MCIs. Cohen’s kappa test was used to evaluate IRR between the raters in each of the scenarios.Results:A total of 247 patients were available for triage. The kappas were consistently “poor” to “fair:” 0.37 to 0.59 in the 10-victim scenario; 0.13 to 0.36 in the 100-victim scenario; and 0.05 to 0.36 in the 1,000-victim scenario. There was an increasing percentage of subjects triaged Minor as the number of estimated victims increased: 27.8% increase from 10- to 100-victim scenario and 7.0% increase from 100- to 1,000-victim scenario. Expectant triage categorization of patients remained stable as victim numbers increased.Conclusion:Overall, SALT demonstrated poor IRR in this study of increasing casualty counts while triaging pediatric patients. Increased casualty counts in the scenarios did lead to increased Minor but not Expectant categorizations.
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Hart, MD, Alexander, Peter R. Chai, MD, Matthew K. Griswold, MD, Jeffrey T. Lai, MD, Edward W. Boyer, MD, PhD, and John Broach, MD, MPH. "Acceptability and perceived utility of drone technology among emergency medical service responders and incident commanders for mass casualty incident management." American Journal of Disaster Medicine 12, no. 4 (October 1, 2017): 261–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/ajdm.2017.0279.
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Objective: This study seeks to understand the acceptability and perceived utility of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology to Mass Casualty Incidents (MCI) scene management.Design: Qualitative questionnaires regarding the ease of operation, perceived usefulness, and training time to operate UAVs were administered to Emergency Medical Technicians (n = 15).Setting: A Single Urban New England Academic Tertiary Care Medical Center.Participants: Front-line emergency medical service (EMS) providers and senior EMS personnel in Incident Commander roles.Conclusions: Data from this pilot study indicate that EMS responders are accepting to deploying and operating UAV technology in a disaster scenario. Additionally, they perceived UAV technology as easy to adopt yet impactful in improving MCI scene management.
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Sujata Rani and Dr. Ravindra Pandey. "Land Acquisition in India: History and Present Scenario." International Journal for Research Publication and Seminar 12, no. 4 (December 30, 2021): 293–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.36676/jrps.v12.i4.1457.
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The origin of the power of the State to take property for public use can be traced back to the olden days. It is an inherent power. An incident to this power is that property shall not be taken for public purpose without just compensation. It is said that right to enjoy private property comes within the purview of personal liberty and the requirement here is that property shall not be taken for public use without just compensation. It is a great principle established by common law for the protection of the private property. It is founded in natural equity and is laid down as a principle of universal law.
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Xiao, Y. K., Z. M. Ji, C. S. Fu, W. T. Du, J. H. Yang, and W. J. Dong. "PROJECTION OF INCIDENT SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION IN CHINA UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W9 (October 25, 2019): 187–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w9-187-2019.
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Abstract. We projected incident surface solar radiation (SSR) over China in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario using a multi-model ensemble derived from the weighted average of seven global climate models (GCMs). The multi-model ensemble captured the contemporary (1979–2005) spatial and temporal characteristics of SSR and reproduced the long-term temporal evolution of the mean annual SSR in China. However, it tended to overestimate values compared to observations due to the absence of aerosol effects in the simulations. The future changes in SSR showed increases over eastern and southern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and northwest China relative to the present day. At the end of the 21st century, there were SSR increases of 9–21 W m−2 over northwest, central, and south China, and decreases of 18–30 W m−2 over the TP in June–July–August (JJA). In northeast China, SSR showed seasonal variation with increases in JJA and decreases in December–January–February. The time series of annual SSR had a decreased linear trend for the TP, and a slightly increased trend for China during 2006–2099. The results of our study suggest that solar energy resources will likely decrease in the TP under future climate change scenarios.
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Shevchenko, Svitlana, Yuliia Zhdanovа, Pavlo Skladannyi, and Taras Petrenko. "FUZZY COGNITIVE MAPS AS A TOOL FOR VISUALIZING INCIDENT RESPONSE SCENARIOS IN SECURITY SYSTEMS." Cybersecurity: Education, Science, Technique 2, no. 26 (2024): 417–29. https://doi.org/10.28925/2663-4023.2024.26.707.
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Cyber threats are becoming increasingly complex and diverse. Existing methods of analysis and decision-making do not always allow us to adequately assess the uncertainty and ambiguity of the situation, responding to cyber incidents after they occur. It is more effective to implement proactive cybersecurity measures based on constant analysis and forecasting of potential threats. This approach allows us to identify weaknesses in the security system and take preventive measures, minimizing the risk of successful cyber attacks. This study proposes the use of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) as an effective tool for visualization and analysis of incident response scenarios. Based on the analysis of scientific sources, the main definitions of the study are highlighted, in particular, the concepts of cognitive modeling, a fuzzy cognitive map, which is presented in the form of a weighted directed graph and a cognitive matrix, and the stages of its creation. The main provisions regarding the scenario approach in cybersecurity are formulated. As a result of the SWOT analysis, key concepts were identified, including risks, attacks, and defenses that form the basis of the system. The assessment of the relationships between concepts allowed us to create a model that reflects the cause-and-effect relationships between the elements of the mobile network security system. The model indicators were studied: consonance and dissonance, which showed that the greatest threat to the system is posed by APT (Advanced persistent threat), phishing, and ransomware, which have the highest level of relationships with other elements of the system, and DDoS attacks, on the contrary, have the least impact in the context of the constructed model. Scenarios for responding to incidents in the network security system were developed using the Mental Modeler software tool. Disadvantages of cognitive modeling and the scenario approach are identified. Their limitations are associated with the quality of expert knowledge and the complexity of building models for large systems. Promising areas of further research are the development of adaptive models capable of self-learning on new data using artificial intelligence. The results of the study can be used as educational material for students of specialty 125 Cybersecurity and Information Protection.