Academic literature on the topic 'Imported housing'

Currency depreciation is said to affect domestic output in either direction, depending on the relative strength of its impact on next exports and the cost of imported inputs. Since increased net exports and eventual economic growth affect the demand for housing and increased cost of imported materials that are used in housing construction affects the supply of housing, we assume that currency depreciation could have an impact on housing output. We test our assumption by using time-series data from each of the states in the U.S. and show that when a linear model is estimated, dollar depreciation has short-run effects in 41 states and long-run effects in only three states. However, when dollar depreciation is separated from appreciation and a nonlinear model is estimated, we find short-run asymmetric effects in all of the states and long-run asymmetric effects in 32 states. Additional analysis reveals that while dollar depreciation increases housing output in 10 states, dollar appreciation hurts the output in 11 states, thus supporting the expansionary depreciation of the dollar in the U.S. housing market.

In order to examine the variability of production performance traits (lactation duration, milk yield for the whole lactation, milk yield in standard lactation, milk fat content, milk fat yield in standard lactation, protein content and yield in standard lactation), 954 cows, domestic and imported Simmental populations, were included in the study, with a total of 3641 completed lactations. Cows were located in the area of Toplica district, reared on individual farming households (tied system) and on the farm with intensive farming (free system). Based on the rearing method and origin, animals were divided into four groups: Group 1 (domestic animals reared by individual agricultural producers on individual farming households); Group 2 (imported animals reared by individual agricultural producers on individual farming households); Group 3 (domestic animals reared on the farm) and Group 4 (imported animals reared on the farm). The fourth group of studied cows showed the highest yield and protein content, while the cows of the third group had the longest lactation and the highest milk fat content. All production performance traits varied highly significantly (p?0.001) under the influence of the combined factor of housing/rearing method and origin.

In order to examine the variability of production performance traits (lactation duration, milk yield for the whole lactation, milk yield in standard lactation, milk fat content, milk fat yield in standard lactation, protein content and yield in standard lactation), 954 cows, domestic and imported Simmental populations, were included in the study, with a total of 3641 completed lactations. Cows were located in the area of Toplica district, reared on individual farming households (tied system) and on the farm with intensive farming (free system). Based on the rearing method and origin, animals were divided into four groups: Group 1 (domestic animals reared by individual agricultural producers on individual farming households); Group 2 (imported animals reared by individual agricultural producers on individual farming households); Group 3 (domestic animals reared on the farm) and Group 4 (imported animals reared on the farm). The fourth group of studied cows showed the highest yield and protein content, while the cows of the third group had the longest lactation and the highest milk fat content. All production performance traits varied highly significantly (p?0.001) under the influence of the combined factor of housing/rearing method and origin.

The article presents results of traits of reproductive ability of Holstein cows of domestic (379 animals) and imported (228 animals) breeding with different genotypes of the leptin gene (LEP) with different milking technologies and housing conditions. Frequency of occurrence of genotypes of LEP gene in imported herd range: CC – 32.5; TC – 49.1 и TT – 18.4 %. In herd of domestic animals frequency of CC, TC and TT genotypes of LEP gene was – 23.5; 54.3 and 22.2 %. In our research it has been shown that animals with the TT genotype of the LEP gene are distinguished by the best traits of live weight at the first fruitful insemination, reproductive capacity coefficient, Dohi index, yield of calves per 100 cows, duration of the calving interval and open days, compared with animals with CC and TC genotypes. Among the cows of domestic breeding, superiority was established for animals with the TC genotype in traits of live weight, service period and Dohi index. For others traits of reproductive ability stand out favorably animals with the CC genotype of the LEP gene. In the context of two farms in the course of the experiment, it is noted that Holstein cows of imported selection with yard housing technology have the best indicators of reproductive qualities, compared with the population of domestic selection of stall barn housing technology. It follows from this that genetic and paratypic factors, along with such herd management principles as milking technology and housing conditions, equally affect the reproductive qualities of Holstein cattle. This research was supported by FASO Russia project number 122011800138-7.

Firstly, a model is established in Pro/E and imported into ANSYS. Static analysis is done through imposed corresponding boundary condition and loads in the condition of fully load. And then, testing its strength can meet the requirements. At the same time, the modal analysis of the third to the tenth steps is carried out and gets the nature frequency under the driving axle housing’s Free State. The vibration performance is analyzed at last.

As for the retrofit design problem of the drive axle housing of an imported electric scraper, UG software is used to establish the finite-element model of the drive axle housing, and the model credibility is verified through the static strength bench test. This paper uses NX Nastran advanced simulation module for structural analysis of the axle housing, which, firstly, establishes in turn the models of each subcase under the action of each single load, then combines the cases into four typical kinds of dangerous cases under the multiple loads' action. The results show: the axle housing has enough stiffness and good dynamic performance, but the strength is not enough on emergency brake and the rough-road abrupt break. Based on the AltairHyperOpt method, the axle housing is optimized, and the results show: the stress amplitude is reduced by 12.65% in the most dangerous case of the rough-road abrupt break, which satisfies the strength requirement; the total weight of the axle housing is reduced by 13.14%, which realizes lightweight.

In the paper the process of acclimatization and adaptation of boars on climate and microclimate conditions are described. The process of growth and sexual maturity during the breeding and accustoming of boars in taking sperms in the centers of artificial insemination or breeding stations are analyzed. It is concluded that appropriate microclimate conditions may solve sterility provoked by climate conditions and even increase fertility of pigs. For purchased and imported young boars it is very important that animals are raised in a proper way and trained for mounting and semen collecting. Ejaculate in the native sperm of imported boars is better quality comparing to the ejaculate of home breeds, but they are sensitive to unspecific infections that can reduce spermatozoa vitality, damage acrosome, disturb spermatozoa maturation and thus influence fertilizing of diluted semen. Housing and nutrition of high-born breed boars has important role in maximal exploitation of producing ability especially on longevity and lifetime production of the imported boars.

UG software was used to build the entity model for light truck driving axle housing, imported the model to ANSYS Workbench collaborative simulation software, and analyzed the stress after meshing and loading. It can be seen that the maximum equivalent stress of the drive axle housing under various conditions was less than the allowable stress value, and the evaluation index of vertical bending static strength experiment is Kn> 6, meeting the strength requirement; In the condition of full loads, the maximum deformation of the per-meter center distance is: 0.1 mm/m < 1.5 mm/m, also meeting the rigidity requirement; The experimental study is used to verify the analysis results referring the relative articles, shows that analysis results are reliable. This process provides reference for other driving axle housing and similar structure finite element analysis.

Visual evaluation and recognition of dairy traits of cows are preliminary indicators of milk yield, longevity, and reproductive ability of the individual animal, which is very important from the aspect of the economics of milk production. The deficiencies in the fundament traits lead to poor production, poor health and premature culling of cows from the herd. The paper examines the frequency of preferred scores of a certain trait in the first calving heifers according to the housing method (animals reared by individual agricultural producers and farm animals) and their origin (domestic and imported animals), as well as the impact of these two factors on the observed properties. Four fundament traits were analysed: the position of the hind legs, the development of the hocks/joints, the pastern joints and the height of the feet on a total of 954 first-calving Simmental heifers. Observed by the housing method, the higher frequency of the preferred scores for all of the fundament traits, was achieved by the farm cows, while according to the origin of the cows, the higher frequency of the preferred scores for all of the fundament traits was realized by imported animals in relation to domestic cows. The influence of the factors of the housing method and origin of animals examined by ?2 test on all the tested linear scores (frequency of scores) of the fundament traits was statistically very significant (p?0.001), while the analysis of the variance (F test) determined high significance (p?0.001) of the interaction between the origin and housing method on the height of the feet, as well as significant effect (p?0.05) on the position of the hind legs, while on other linear scores of the fundament traits it did not exhibit statistical significance (p>0.05).

Afghanistan suffers from four decades of war, caused a massive migration of the rural population to the cities. Kabul was originally designed for 1,5 million people, where now 5 million people live. The importation of modern western styles housing for rapid reconstruction reveals apparent cultural conflict and significant environmental footprint. The new constructive cultures for sustainable reconstruction should necessary consider the use of local materials combined with modern technologies. Earthen architecture underlies the embodiment of Afghanistan architecture. The aim of this research is to revisit traditional afghan earthen construction with the tools of industrial modernity. Three soils of the Kabul region were first characterized. Then, sun-dried mud brick and compressive earth block, with and without stabilization have been prepared and tested in the laboratory to develop the most suitable earth construction element which is cost effective and easily available compared to the imported modern products.

In 2017, the Saudi Arabian Government through its Ministry of Housing, announced that it planned to build 1.45 million affordable houses by 2030. The government will contribute to the cost of the houses to put them within the price range of people with modest incomes. Central to achieving this goal is the use of innovative, high-tech construction methods, mainly 3D printing. Several prototype houses have been constructed and more are planned to give Saudis an opportunity to experience them first-hand before a decision is made to go ahead with the planned rollout. The motivation for this thesis was to better understand the likely success or failure of this ambitious scheme. Early research soon revealed that since the discovery of oil in the kingdom in 1938, there have been many thousands of houses and apartments built through government-sponsored affordable housing projects. All have embodied a mixture of imported western notions of domestic living combined with traditional Saudi cultural, social and religious values and practices. The construction of these large-scale projects has relied on, and to a large extent been driven by, the use of imported construction materials, techniques and expertise. To better understand the current masshousing plan this thesis, through the study of examples and case studies, explores these projects from both a technological and a qualitative perspective. The aim is to provide insights into their successes and failures in the hope that lessons can be learned that will help guide the current proposal towards a fruitful outcome for the Saudi people for whom the houses are intended. Prior to 1938, domestic buildings in Saudi Arabia were constructed by local craftsmen using traditional materials and techniques. The first modern buildings were, flat-packed, timber houses manufactured in California and imported by the Standard Oil Company of California (SOCAL) to accommodate their expat oil workers in the rapidly expanding camp at Dammam on the Arabian Gulf. A trickle soon turned into a flood with many thousands of prefabricated timber houses from America and Europe imported into oil compounds all around the country. While these houses were never accepted more widely by Saudis as suitable domestic dwellings the modernist, technological thinking they embodied undoubtedly translated into the first contemporary, non-traditional houses built outside the camps during the 1950s designed by architects and engineers employed by SOCAL’s successor company Aramco. Mass-housing projects for the wider Saudi community soon followed all of which were constructed with heavy concrete construction. The first examples were built in situ however by the 1970s industrialised prefabrication had become established as the dominant method of delivering thousands of identical, affordable houses and apartments. Many were initially unappealing to Saudi house and apartment buyers and stood empty for a number of years. When the houses were finally occupied their new owners expressed their dissatisfaction with the manifestation of imported ideas about how they should live by almost universally carrying out modifications. These range from the relatively minor, raising the height of boundary walls, to major changes including adding a second storey. It is extremely difficult for the untrained householder or the local builder to alter and modify a house constructed of factory-made, loadbearing precast concrete panels and the same will be true for 3D printed houses. For the 1970s precast houses, modifications resulted in a significant number of structural failures leading to abandonment of the house. In addition, eclectic streetscapes emerged consisting of an assortment of styles and building materials some of which attempt to recreate a resonance with vernacular modes of living. Some houses are modelled on the latest trends found in architectural and lifestyle magazines. If minimising this level of modification is accepted as a goal for the proposed 3D printed houses, then a detailed understanding of previous industrialised mass housing schemes is important.
Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Architecture & Built Environment, 2021

碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
94
Abstract More than 95 percent of the land of Keelung city belongs to hillside. Many building or villages have also been built along the hill slopes. These buildings have strongly influenced by the building Design Code released by Department of Interior Affairs, especially for the Chapters regarding the restrictions of buildings on hillside. For the purpose to evaluate some hillside buildings which have some difficulty satisfying all the requirements defined in the Code, some real case studies are collected and evaluated. In addition, some suggestions are also made in the thesis after these case studies. They may provide some information to the government for further management on hillside buildings. Keywords: Hillside building chapter, landslide hazard, sustainable development.

AbstractResearch on displacement has a long trajectory in Western geography and urban studies. In a Swedish context theory formation around displacement re-emerged in the 2010s as a response to an increasingly heated housing market, increased gentrification and growing homelessness, and as a consequence of ‘renoviction’ processes. Learning from empirical research in Sweden, the Nordic experiences differ from the Anglo-American context, and set ground for a theoretical discussion on how to understand the specificities of displacement processes in (post-)welfare societies. In this chapter we investigate some Swedish manifestations of displacement that cannot easily be grasped by conceptual apparatuses often developed in an Anglo-American context. The process of displacement in a Swedish (and Nordic) context is often more indirect and slower but its eventual outcomes have the same damaging effects on its victims. The chapter provides both an historical and contemporary view of Swedish displacement processes and practices, and we argue that we cannot uncritically import a conceptual apparatus that grew out of other socio-spatial contexts and develop particular understandings of displacement based on Nordic empirical observations.

The history of elite housing from ancient times onwards was based on a concept of space in which man was an integral part of his natural surroundings. This conception of space derives from the symbiosis between ‘architecture’ and ‘garden’ and is inherent to the long and rich tradition of Japanese and Sino-Japanese thought fed by myths, legends and sacred beliefs, from primitive Shinto cults to the influence of Indian thought through Buddhism imported via China, not to mention the major influence of Taoist concepts of the universe from the Heian period on. These successive influences never put into question the fundamental relationship between man and nature but, on the contrary, gave it new substance, and left their mark on all forms of social expression including architecture, art, the sacred, and mythology. Japanese architecture has always reflected the fundamental relationship between man and nature, which is why the various archetypes of Japanese dwellings from ancient to pre-modern times rely on the intrinsic relationship between architecture and garden.

As a result of the war with the Russian Federation, the economy of Ukraine underwent significant structural changes that negatively affected the economic security of its industries, in particular the construction industry. Capital outflow; decrease in the number of economically active population involved in work in the industry due to their departure abroad or mobilization; interruptions in the supply of construction materials, both domestic and imported; growth of transport risks; damage to logistics routes and connections due to a sea blockade, stoppage of railway traffic in the territory of hostilities, suspension of air traffic, destruction of highways; damage to equipment, construction objects; critical infrastructure destruction; lack of material resources; increasing economic uncertainty; the impossibility of conducting business in the regions of hostilities and in the territories adjacent to them; decrease in demand; reducing the scope of activities; losses due to termination or suspension of activity - this is far from a complete list of problems, the solution of which depends today on the economic security of not only the construction industry, but also the state as a whole. After all, it is the construction industry that ensures the reconstruction of the country, solves the problem of employment of the population; fills the revenue part of local budgets; stimulates the expansion of other industries: metallurgy, mechanical engineering, woodworking, petrochemical industry, energy, transport, etc.; performs a social function, in particular providing housing.

It is spring 1708, and Sweden has been at war for eight years. Charles XII camps out with the army in Lithuania, still a year from the fatal battle of Poltava in Ukraine, and it is a busy time for seasonal workers Per Larsson Gässaboda and Esbjörn Persson Bölsö. In the southern province of Småland (The Small Lands), the former border region with Denmark now just north of the new Swedish province of the recently occupied Skåne, the cows are out of the barns in which they have spent the cold winter, and it is time for Per and Esbjörn to take out their shovels, load their wagon, and set out on their mission for the King to the farmers of the region. They are part of the army, enrolled men, but not for combat because they are petermen, or ‘sjudare’ (simmers) as they were called in Swedish. The farmers do not look forward to their visits as these men can command their chariots and their horses at will, take the firewood (and they need huge quantities), and wreak havoc to barns, stables, and houses in their quest for the manure and urine-rich soils that form the valuable raw material for their trade. These men make nitrate—or to be specific, potassium nitrate (KNO3), also known as saltpetre—for delivery to the King’s gunpowder factories. More than 100 years ago Henry VIII’s contemporary, the equally shrewd and ruthless King Gustav Wasa, had realized Sweden’s precarious situation when it came to gunpowder, and with a simple stroke of his pen ruled that the soil underneath barns, stables, and cowsheds belonged to the King. In an additional law, perhaps more illustrating his fear of being cheated by innovative farmers than his well-known attention to detail, he also banned any building housing livestock from being paved with a stone floor. In a country in which buildings of stone were virtually unheard of, except for housing the very rich, this was hardly likely anyway, but the King didn’t like to take chances with money and the saltpetre was a valuable commodity that otherwise would have had to be imported.

Abstract Multiphysics finite element modeling process is derived to predict vibration and noise due to magnetic forces within a permanent-magnet brushless DC motor over a variable speed range under healthy and eccentric faulty conditions. Transient analysis for magnetic force in two-dimensional electromagnetic model is carried out over a variable speed range. To keep cyclic symmetry mesh and avoid numerical source of noise, the method of effective air gap layer is applied and manipulated with relative permeability derived for static and dynamic eccentric rotating condition depending on rotation angle and eccentric shift. Using discrete Fourier transformation and electromagnetic-structural one-way coupling schemes, magnetic harmonic forces for a range of rotation angular speed are imported and applied on stator’s inner surfaces. Vibration characteristics are calculated for a three-dimensional full finite element model of the motor in harmonic response analysis. Finally, surface velocities are imported and applied on acoustic domain using fluid-structure interaction (FSI) one-way coupling. Noise radiated from motor housing including front and end caps is evaluated. The waterfall diagram of equivalent radiation pressure level (ERPL) and sound pressure level (SPL) contour plotting in function of rotation angular speed and frequency is obtained in multiple RPM harmonic structural and acoustic analyses. The vibro-acoustic feature pattern could be utilized in faulty detection.

Algeria imported Western culture through early globalization, which continued with the global integration of the French colonial period and proceeded its impact in the postcolonial era. This paper seeks to analyse the impact of globalization in Algeria in the postcolonial era starting from the remaining colonial impact, as well as how it functioned as an introduction to modern globalization aspects in the postcolonial Algerian identity in the decades before to present. The impact of thousands of colonial houses occupied by Algerians shortly after independence that created old/new dwellings, as well as the rise of individualism as a result of the change in housing notion. The reaction of nationalist Algerian architects as well as the consequences of academics and architects studying abroad in parallel with the availability of internet, architectural media, and commodities, and the rise of consumer culture, that led the change in Algerians' housing preferences. Foreign investments and globalization trends: Are all the aspects that have been discussed to understand the impact of globalization on the post-colonial Algerian identity regarding architectural production. The results show that the Algerian post-colonial architectural production has been remarkably affected by both earlier globalization and modern globalization. Local authorities of Algeria can focus on making young architects familiar with traditional culture in order to maintain the authenticity of their culture in architectural design in the upcoming future.

Solar energy is an influential sort of renewable energy which is also richly available in North Cyprus. Contrariwise, there are no natural oil resources in Cyprus; over 90% of the country's main energy is imported to the island which needs high financial government credit [1]. Indeed, high CO2 emissions and their side effects on the global environment as well as destruction role on the ozone layer are among major problems of using non-renewable energy. Considering the geographic location of North Cyprus, it has over 300 sunny days out of 365 days of a year; therefore, there is a considerable potential to integrate solar tracking systems into various parts of industrials or residential portions in the country. In a time when using more renewable sources of energy is important to decline obvious environmental problems, it seems to be beneficial to use photovoltaic systems such as "Building Integrated Photovoltaic". As housing consumes over 40 percent of the produced energy, local sustainable properties deal with enhancing the quality of dwellers life. Based on what has been discussed, the objective of this study is to achieve a high degree of efficient local energy through BIPV so to supply a proportion of buildings' heating and electricity power consumptions. The main concern is considering cultural patterns and local climate aspects in the design process so to reach to a suitable energy solution in each individual case. Accordingly, some criteria which directly affect the produced power ability of photovoltaic systems would be discussed, in particular, determining the direction, the slope of photovoltaic panels, shading, its integration with active solar systems, and buildings' form and facades. Additionally, as the case study, Coloured Building would be presented to show that how those mentioned solutions can integrate to the building in order to refine its energy consumption. Consequently, architects and designers, looking for buildings' self-efficiency and sustainability, should know how to incorporate photovoltaic systems to the building and to consider which criteria in this case. Indeed, the corporation between architects and other engineers who work on a common project is the key role in developing a construction toward a sustainable environment.

Abstract Air-conditioning (A/C) is an important sector for Kuwait. It is not only the single largest consumer of electricity, its yearly import accounts for well over 200 million US dollars. Energy conservation measures have been in practice in Kuwait since 1983 through a well defined code of practice enforced by the Ministry of Electricity and Water (MEW). Additional energy efficient products and techniques developed thereafter, however, have not been introduced as the electricity is highly subsidized and the MEW code has not been modified. Applications of some of the cost effective energy conservation measures and use of cool storage for peak power shaving have been carried out as a demonstration project in a two-story building, housing the Center for Speech and Audio Therapy having 3,180 m2 of air-conditioned space. As a first step, the building cooling load was re-estimated using an energy simulation computer program and proper design specifications. It was found to be 31.4% lower than the original estimated load of 161.3 tons of refrigeration (RT). Use of energy-efficient windows and cooling recovery units that were found to be cost-effective resulted in a final building load of 64.5 RT. Finally, ice storage was incorporated to meet 50% of the peak cooling load. This paper presents the complete design details including the impact of a building load simulation program and cost benefit analysis of important energy conservation measures. It also presents a design and operation scheme for a cool storage, assisted A/C system and its performance results collected during the summer of 1998.

The city of Mumbai (Bombay), India is facing a solid waste management crisis. The infrastructure has been unable to keep pace with economic development and population growth, resulting in insufficient collection of municipal solid waste (MSW) and over-burdened dumps. Improper disposal of solid wastes over several decades and open burning of garbage have led to serious environmental pollution and health problems. This study examined the solid waste management process in Mumbai and the potential for implementation of waste-to-energy facilities. Mumbai’s average per capita waste generation rate is 0.18 tonnes per person. Although the reported collection efficiency of MSW is 90%, almost half of the city’s 12 million people live in slums, some of which do not have access to solid waste services. The most pressing problem is the acute shortage of space for landfilling. When the present waste dumps were constructed they were at the outskirts of the city, but now they are surrounded by housing colonies, thus exposing millions of people to daily inconveniences such as odors, traffic congestion, and to more serious problems associated with air, land, and water pollution and the spread of diseases from rodents and mosquitoes. Mumbai is the financial center of India and has the highest potential for energy generation from the controlled combustion of solid wastes. The lower heating value of MSW is estimated in this study to be 9 MJ/kg, which is slightly lower than the average MSW combusted in the E.U. (10 MJ/kg). The land for the first WTE in Mumbai would be provided by the City and there is a market for the electricity generated by the WTE facility. The main problem to overcome is the source of capital since the present “tipping fees” are very low and inadequate to make the operation profitable and thus attract private investors. Therefore, the only hope is for the local government and one or more philanthropists in Mumbai to team up in financing the first WTE in India as a beacon that improves living conditions in Mumbai, reduces the City’s dependence on the import of fossil fuels, and lights the way for other cities in India to follow.

Resumen: El Patrimonio del Movimiento Moderno y su conservación es un tema de actualidad, no solo desde el punto de vista teórico sino también desde el práctico, ya que la arquitectura de principios del s.XX lleva tiempo necesitando y asumiendo intervenciones para mantenerlas en pie. Se escoge como tema de estudio la vivienda, como arquetipo estudiado por los grandes del Movimiento Moderno y concretamente la villa Savoye como paradigma del Estilo Internacional. Así, con la investigación de este modelo se pretende sacar conclusiones para la conservación de la herencia de Le Corbusier asegurando su permanencia en las generaciones futuras. Se ha realizado un análisis de la villa Savoye por etapas de tiempo. Cada periodo se ha estudiado a través de unos parámetros comunes, obteniéndose una panorámica de la evolución de los elementos que la forman y de su globalidad. Los resultados de este análisis permiten hacer un estudio comparativo entre la villa original, la villa en sus distintas etapas y el estado actual, precisando qué es lo que realmente queda de la villa de 1930. De esta aportación surgen preguntas y reflexiones: ¿importa la conservación de la materia original en la permanencia de un hito? ¿es aceptable una máquina para habitar que no se puede habitar? ¿qué prevalece: la autenticidad arquitectónica o a la autenticidad histórica en la conservación de las obras de Le Corbusier? Abstract: The Heritage of the Modern Movement and its conservation is a current topic, not only from the theoretical point of view but also from the practical, that is because the early twentieth century architecture has been needing and assuming interventions to keep up. It is chosen as a subject of study the housing, as well studied by the great archetype of the modern movement and specifically the Villa Savoye as a paradigm of the International Style. Thus, the investigation of this model is to draw conclusions for the preservation of the heritage of Le Corbusier ensuring its permanence in future generations. It has conducted an analysis of the Villa Savoye through stages of time. Each period has been studied through common parameters, giving an overview of the evolution of the elements that shape it and its entirety. The results of this analysis can make a comparative study between the original villa, the villa in its different stages and the current status, specifying what really remains of the villa of 1930. This contribution questions and thoughts arise: Does it matter the conservation of the original matter in the permanence of a milestone? Is it acceptable to inhabit a machine that you can not live in? Architectural authenticity prevails against the historical authenticity in the conservation of the works of Le Corbusier?Palabras clave: Savoye; evolución; permanencia; intervención; patrimonio. Keywords: Savoye; evolution; permanence; intervention; heritage. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/LC2015.2015.523

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias