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Wiederhielm, Curt A., R. Monastersky, and Georgianna Henry. "Impact Scenarios." Science News 141, no. 14 (April 4, 1992): 211. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3976408.
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&NA;. "AIDS impact scenarios." Aids 4, no. 11 (November 1990): 1166–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/00002030-199011000-00025.
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Wang, D., W. Jia, S. C. Olsen, D. J. Wuebbles, M. K. Dubey, and A. A. Rockett. "The impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 8 (August 6, 2012): 19423–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-19423-2012.
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Abstract. The prospective future adoption of hydrogen to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question whether the adoption would have adverse effects on stratospheric ozone. The possibility of these undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART chemical transport model. Since future growth is highly uncertain we evaluate the impact for two world evolution scenarios, one based on a high emitting scenario (IPCC A1FI) and the other on a low emitting scenario (IPCC B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario the world evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the same world evolution scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two bounding scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone expected as stratospheric ozone recovers due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.
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Gunasekara, N. K., S. Kazama, D. Yamazaki, and T. Oki. "The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9, no. 8 (August 3, 2012): 9239–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-9-9239-2012.
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Abstract. The effectiveness of population policy scenarios in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest Representative Concentration Pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that in combination with a more heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world, a more convergent, environmentally friendly emissions scenario, such as B1, can result in a high-impact climate scenario, similar to A2, for the already water-stressed low latitudes. However, the effect of population change supersedes the changes in the climate scenarios. In 2100, Africa, Middle-East and parts of Asia are in extreme water-stress under all scenarios. For countries with high population momentum, the population policy scenario with fertility-reduction assumptions gained a maximum of 6.1 times the water availability in Niger and 5.3 times that in Uganda compared with the no-policy scenario. Most of these countries are in Sub-Saharan Africa. These countries represent 24.5% of the global population in the no-policy scenario and the scenario with fertility- reduction assumptions reduces it to 8.7% by 2100. This scenario is also effective at reducing the area under extreme water stress in these countries. However, the policy scenario with assumptions of population stabilization at the replacement fertility rate increases the water stress in high-latitude countries. Nevertheless, the impact is low due to the high per capita water availability in the region. This research is expected to widen the understanding of the combined impacts of climate change in the future and of the strategies needed to enhance the space for adaptation.
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Martin, C. Dianne. "Some surprising social impact scenarios." ACM Inroads 3, no. 3 (September 2012): 16–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/2339055.2339059.
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Wang, D., W. Jia, S. C. Olsen, D. J. Wuebbles, M. K. Dubey, and A. A. Rockett. "Impact of a future H<sub>2</sub>-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 2: Stratospheric ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 13, no. 13 (July 1, 2013): 6139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-6139-2013.
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Abstract. The prospective future adoption of molecular hydrogen (H2) to power the road transportation sector could greatly improve tropospheric air quality but also raises the question of whether the adoption would have adverse effects on the stratospheric ozone. The possibility of undesirable impacts must be fully evaluated to guide future policy decisions. Here we evaluate the possible impact of a future (2050) H2-based road transportation sector on stratospheric composition and chemistry, especially on the stratospheric ozone, with the MOZART (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers) model. Since future growth is highly uncertain, we evaluate the impact of two world evolution scenarios, one based on an IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) high-emitting scenario (A1FI) and the other on an IPCC low-emitting scenario (B1), as well as two technological options: H2 fuel cells and H2 internal combustion engines. We assume a H2 leakage rate of 2.5% and a complete market penetration of H2 vehicles in 2050. The model simulations show that a H2-based road transportation sector would reduce stratospheric ozone concentrations as a result of perturbed catalytic ozone destruction cycles. The magnitude of the impact depends on which growth scenario evolves and which H2 technology option is applied. For the evolution growth scenario, stratospheric ozone decreases more in the H2 fuel cell scenarios than in the H2 internal combustion engine scenarios because of the NOx emissions in the latter case. If the same technological option is applied, the impact is larger in the A1FI emission scenario. The largest impact, a 0.54% decrease in annual average global mean stratospheric column ozone, is found with a H2 fuel cell type road transportation sector in the A1FI scenario; whereas the smallest impact, a 0.04% increase in stratospheric ozone, is found with applications of H2 internal combustion engine vehicles in the B1 scenario. The impacts of the other two scenarios fall between the above two boundary scenarios. However, the magnitude of these changes is much smaller than the increases in 2050 stratospheric ozone projected, as stratospheric ozone is expected to recover due to the limits in ozone depleting substance emissions imposed in the Montreal Protocol.
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khademi Jolgeh Nejad, Afsaneh, Reza Ahmadi Kahnali, and Ali Heyrani. "Developing Hospital Resilient Supply Chain Scenario through Cross-Impact Analysis Method." Depiction of Health 12, no. 4 (November 3, 2021): 310–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/doh.2021.30.
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Background and Objectives The hospital and its supply chain must be resilient in the critical situations. Developing scenario is an important tool for planning and decision-making process in these situations. Therefore, this study intended to develop possible scenarios for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research study is applied in terms of purpose and is based the scenario method and the probabilistic trends approach. The participants of the study were 14 experts from two hospitals who were selected through a purposeful sampling method. The data obtained in the first phase of the semi-structured interviews, were coded and analyzed through using MAXQDA Software. In the next phase, the cross impact analysis questionnaire was used to develop the scenario and the analysis of the data was performed through Scenario Wizard software. Results The results of combining 35 states for 12 factors affecting hospital resilience which also included all possible future states, showed that 7 scenarios with high adaptation and 467 scenarios with poor adaptation can be considered. Strong scenarios were divided into three groups of scenarios as "optimistic", "intermediate" and "pessimistic" based on similarity and degree of desirability. Conclusion The Findings revealed that the strength of the impact of unfavorable states was more than that of favorable states. Therefore, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to unfavorable scenarios to provide the necessary preparation to face those states, and with proper planning, the desired states can be achieved. Extended Abstract Background and Objectives The complexity and intensity of environmental fluctuations combined with unexpected accidents and dangers have increased the probability of hospital supply chain disruptions. The hospital and its supply chain must be intelligent to resist unforeseen events, so that in different situations, there is no work stoppage in their activities. Scenarios are an important tool for improving the planning and decision-making process in these situations. The purpose of this paper is to develop a scenario for hospital supply chain resilience. Material and Methods This research is based on the scenario method, and it is applied in terms of purpose. In addition, in the category of normative scenarios and based on the probabilistic modified trends (PMT) school. The Participants were 14 experts from two hospitals who were purposefully selected. The data obtained in the first phase from interviews, were coded and analyzed through MAXQDA Software. In the second phase, based on the participants' viewpoints, the possible states of each of the identified factors in the previous stage were defined, and the cross impact questionnaire was designed. The cross impact questionnaire is in the form of a matrix in which respondents determine the effect of each state on other states. Finally, cross impact analysis method and Scenario Wizard software were used to compile the scenario and compatibility coefficients and total impact score indices were used to examine compatible scenarios. Results Based on analysis results of the semi-structured interviews, 30 drivers of hospital supply chain resilience were identified. These factors were clustered in the form of 12 main components including: "staff preparedness and accountability in the event of a disaster", "safety of infrastructure and equipment", "recovery of infrastructure after disaster", "cooperation and participation of various organizations and communication systems among them", "support systems and potential hospital capacity", "coordination and flexibility of suppliers", "planning and management of disaster", "nature of accidents", "government policies", "sanctions on drugs and equipment", "people's culture at the time of the accident", and "funding". The output of Scenario Wizard software showed 7 strong scenarios that were divided into three groups of scenarios as "Optimistic", "pessimistic" and "interstitial" based on their rank and degree of desirability. The Optimistic scenarios include ideal resilient and hard resilient scenarios, the interstitial scenarios comprise high-capacity and troublesome challenging scenarios, and the pessimistic scenarios consist of vulnerable, defenseless and fragmented scenarios. Conclusion The results showed that the strength of the impact of undesirable situations was more than that of desirable situations. Hence, for the resilience of the hospital supply chain, it is necessary to pay more attention to undesirable scenarios in comparison to desirable ones in order to provide the necessary preparation to face those situations and to reach the desirable situations through proper planning. Practical Implications of Research Due to the challenges of traditional planning in the face of the future, in this study, the scenario developing approach was used as a tool to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of planning in the hospital supply chain. Managers and planners can substitute alternative futures for a single future and plan to take advantage of favorable future situations and avoid or reduce the effects of unfavorable future situations to be better prepared to face the future. Ethical Considerations In the present study, all ethical considerations have been observed based on the recommendations and regulations. Conflict of Interest The authors stated that there is no conflict of interest. Aknowledgment This article is based on the result of Afsaneh Khademi-Jolgehnejad’s Master thesis submitted to the University of Hormozgan and received approval code Under 11130.Authors are grateful to the consultants of the Clinical Research Development Center of Shahid Mohammadi Hospital and Bandar Abbas Children's Hospital for their cooperation and guidances.
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Sevindik, Selman, Catalina Spataru, Teresa Domenech Aparisi, and Raimund Bleischwitz. "A Comparative Environmental Assessment of Heat Pumps and Gas Boilers towards a Circular Economy in the UK." Energies 14, no. 11 (May 24, 2021): 3027. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en14113027.
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This research compares the potential environmental impacts of heat pumps with gas boilers and scenario analysis through utilising the life cycle approach. The study analyses the current situation with the baseline model and assesses future applications with Circular Economy (CE), Resource Efficiency (RE) and Limited Growth (LG) scenarios. Then, hybrid applications of low-carbon technologies and different manufacturing scenarios are investigated according to baseline and CE scenarios. Our results show that the use and manufacturing phases are responsible for 74% and 14% of all environmental impacts on average as expected. Even though the electricity mix of the UK has decarbonised substantially during the last decade, heat pumps still have higher lifetime impacts than gas boilers in all environmental categories except climate change impact. The carbon intensity of heat pumps is much lower than gas boilers with 0.111 and 0.097 kg CO2e for air source heat pumps and ground source heat pumps, whereas the boiler stands as 0.241 kg CO2e. Future scenarios offer significant reductions in most of the impact categories. The CE scenario has the highest potential with a 44% reduction for heat pumps and 27% for gas boilers on average. RE and LG scenarios have smaller potential than the CE scenario, relatively. However, several categories expect an increase in future scenarios such as freshwater ecotoxicity, marine ecotoxicity and metal depletion categories. High deployment of offshore wind farms will have a negative impact on these categories; therefore, a comprehensive approach through a market introduction programme should be provided at the beginning before shifting from one technology to another. The 50% Hybrid scenario results expect a reduction of 24% and 20% on average for ASHP and GSHP, respectively, in the baseline model. The reduction is much lower in the CE scenario, with only a 2% decrease for both heat pumps because of the reduction in heat demand in the future. These results emphasise that even though the importance of the use phase is significant in the baseline model, the remaining phases will play an important role to achieve Net-Zero targets in the future.
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Yapıcıoğlu, Pelin Soyertaş. "Environmental impact assessment for a meat processing industry in Turkey: wastewater treatment plant." Water Practice and Technology 13, no. 3 (September 1, 2018): 692–704. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wpt.2018.051.
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Abstract The meat processing industry has many unfavorable impacts to the environment in Turkey. One of these impacts is wastewater treatment. Meat processing wastewater contains large amounts of proteins, fats, nutrients such as nitrogen, and pathogenic and non-pathogenic microorganisms and viruses. The high organic and hazardous content of wastewater causes environmental challenges for the flora and fauna in receiving water bodies unless it is treated adequately. Due to these reasons, the treatment process to be implemented should be the least damaging to the environment. In this study, three treatment scenarios that include a UASB (upflow anaerobic sludge bed) reactor (Scenario-1), an advanced oxidation process that includes UV/H2O2 treatment (Scenario-2) and a membrane bioreactor (Scenario-3) have been studied for a meat processor's wastewater treatment plant. For these three scenarios, an environmental impact assessment was undertaken using the Fine-Kinney method. The evaluation results revealed that Scenario-2 has the smallest environmental impact value with 475. Scenario-1 has the highest total environmental impact value as 765. Scenario-3's environmental impact value is 637. According to the evaluation results, the UV/H2O2 process is the most applicable technology for wastewater treatment in Turkey's meat industry.
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Abubakar Jumare, Ismail, Ramchandra Bhandari, and Abdellatif Zerga. "Environmental Life Cycle Assessment of Grid-Integrated Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems in Northern Nigeria." Sustainability 11, no. 21 (October 23, 2019): 5889. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11215889.
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Life cycle assessment is a crucial tool in evaluating systems performances for sustainability and decision-making. This paper provided environmental impact of integrating renewable energy systems to the utility-grid based on a baseline optimized energy production data from “HOMER” for renewable systems modelling of a site in northern Nigeria. The ultimate goal was to ascertain the best hybrid option(s) in sustaining the environment. Different assumptions and scenarios were modelled and simulated using Ganzleitlichen Bilanz (GaBi). Uncertainty analysis was ensured to the impact data based on pedigree-matrix and Excel-program, as well as overall policy relevance. The results of the impact categories revealed first scenario (i.e., conventional path-based) with the highest impacts on global warming potential (GWP), acidification potential (AP), human toxicity potential (HTP), and abiotic depletion potential (ADPfossils). The lowest impacts arise in the renewable-based scenarios for all the considered categories except the Ozone-layer depletion potential Category where the highest contribution falls in the third scenario (i.e., photovoltaic (PV)/biomass-biogas system) although all values being infinitesimal. In quantitative terms, the reduction in the GWP from the highest being the first scenario to the lowest being the fourth scenario (i.e., wind/biomass-biogas system) was 96.5%. Hence, with the outstanding contributions of the hybrid renewable systems, adopting them especially the lowest impact scenarios with expansions is relevant for environmental sustainability.
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Wegehenkel, M., U. Heinrich, H. Jochheim, K. C. Kersebaum, and B. Röber. "Evaluation of three different regional climate change scenarios for the application of a water balance model in a mesoscale catchment in Northeast Germany." Advances in Geosciences 27 (August 27, 2010): 57–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-27-57-2010.
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Abstract. Future climate changes might have some impacts on catchment hydrology. An assessment of such impacts on e.g. ground water recharge is required to derive adaptation strategies for future water resources management. The main objective of our study was an analysis of three different regional climate change scenarios for a catchment with an area of 2415 km2 located in the Northeastern German lowlands. These data sets consist of the STAR-scenario with a time period 1951–2055, the WettReg-scenario covering the period 1961–2100 and the grid based REMO-scenario for the time span 1950–2100. All three data sets are based on the SRES scenario A1B of the IPCC. In our analysis, we compared the meteorological data for the control period obtained from the regional climate change scenarios with corresponding data measured at meteorological stations in the catchment. The results of this analysis indicated, that there are high differences between the different regional climate change scenarios regarding the temporal dynamics and the amount of precipitation. In addition, we applied a water balance model using input data obtained from the different climate change scenarios and analyzed the impact of these different input data on the model output groundwater recharge. The results of our study indicated, that these regional climate change scenarios due to the uncertainties in the projections of precipitation show only a limited suitability for hydrologic impact analysis used for the establishment of future concrete water management procedures in their present state.
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Borenius, Seppo, Petri Tuomainen, Jyri Tompuri, Jesse Mansikkamäki, Matti Lehtonen, Heikki Hämmäinen, and Raimo Kantola. "Scenarios on the Impact of Electric Vehicles on Distribution Grids." Energies 15, no. 13 (June 21, 2022): 4534. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15134534.
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The electricity sector has a central role in the efforts to meet climate targets. Consequently, efforts are taking place to electrify industry, heating, and transportation. The Finnish government has set the target to halve carbon dioxide traffic emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Due to this target, the currently small proportion of electric vehicles (EVs) in Finland could expand in a manner that is difficult to forecast but could be exponential. Amid already strained investment budgets, anticipating the alternative scenarios and impacts of such a transport electrification evolution is of high importance to distribution system operators in order to optimize network planning and enhancements during the coming 15–25 years. The novelty and contribution of this paper is in utilizing a formal scenario planning process to envision what the alternative scenarios are (i.e., possible futures) for the evolution of the electric car fleet in Finland until 2040 and how these alternative scenarios could impact distribution grids. The impact analysis is performed in terms of additional energy and additional power in order to gain an understanding of the high-level impacts and investment needs. The analysis utilizes a real distribution grid in southern Finland as a case example that enables quantification. The results indicate the electric vehicles will, depending the scenario, pose an essential additional load in terms of both energy and power and that the required investment levels and investment types will be heavily dependent on the scenario.
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Smutka, Luboš, and Josef Abrhám. "The impact of the Russian import ban on EU agrarian exports." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 68, No. 2 (February 18, 2022): 39–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/351/2021-agricecon.
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The main goal of the paper is to evaluate the impact of the Russian import ban on the development of agricultural exports from EU member states. The study is based on a time-series analysis of empirical statistical indicators. The analysed period is between 2009 and 2019. The source of data for individual analyses is UN Comtrade (2021). The evaluation of export performance is extended by hierarchical cluster analysis. The study quantifies the effects of the import ban on the EU and individual member states through two scenarios. Scenario 1 is based on the cumulative loss of the value of exports. Scenario 2 assumes a continuous development of the value of agricultural exports. Based on the results, it is possible to confirm that the application of the Russian food import ban had a significant impact on EU countries. The impact of sanctions varies across EU countries. Four specific clusters could be identified in the period under investigation. In the period after the ban, the distribution of individual countries among individual clusters changed significantly. The applied ban could be understood not only as an attempt at counter-sanctions. Import restrictions also aim to reduce Russia's dependence on food imports and promote national food security.
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Sarmento, Visnu Cunha, Bárbara Ramos Pinheiro, Manuel de Jesus Flores Montes, and Paulo Jorge Parreira Santos. "Impact of predicted climate change scenarios on a coral reef meiofauna community." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74, no. 4 (January 8, 2017): 1170–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsw234.
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Changes in marine communities in response to elevated CO2 have been reported but information on how representatives of the benthic lower trophic levels will be impacted remains scarce. A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate the impact of different climate change scenarios on a coral reef meiofauna community. Samples of the meiofauna community were collected from the coral reef subtidal zone of Serrambi beach (Ipojuca, Pernambuco, Brazil), using artificial substrate units. The units were exposed to control treatments and to three climate change scenarios, and collected after 15 and 29 d. Important changes in the meiofauna community structure were observed after 15 d of exposure. The major meiofauna groups exhibited divergent responses to the various scenarios. Although polychaetes were negatively affected after 29 d in the most severe scenario (Scenario III), harpacticoid copepods were negatively affected in Scenarios II and III after 15 and 29 d. Harpacticoid nauplii were strongly and negatively affected in all scenarios. In contrast, Nematoda exhibited higher densities in all scenarios. To the best of our knowledge, this community-based study was the first to observe how meiofauna organisms from a coral reef environment react to the synergetic effects of reductions in seawater pH and increased temperature.
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Anklam III, PhD, Charles, Adam Kirby, MS, Filipo Sharevski, MS, and J. Eric Dietz, PhD, PE. "Mitigating active shooter impact: Analysis for policy options based on agent/computer-based modeling." Journal of Emergency Management 13, no. 3 (May 1, 2015): 201. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.2015.0234.
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Active shooting violence at confined settings, such as educational institutions, poses serious security concerns to public safety. In studying the effects of active shooter scenarios, the common denominator associated with all events, regardless of reason/intent for shooter motives, or type of weapons used, was the location chosen and time expended between the beginning of the event and its culmination. This in turn directly correlates to number of casualties incurred in any given event. The longer the event protracts, the more casualties are incurred until law enforcement or another barrier can react and culminate the situation.Objective: Using AnyLogic technology, devise modeling scenarios to test multiple hypotheses against free-agent modeling simulation to determine the best method to reduce casualties associated with active shooter scenarios.Design, setting, subjects: Test four possible scenarios of responding to active shooter in a public school setting using agent-based computer modeling techniques—scenario 1: basic scenario where no access control or any type of security is used within the school; scenario 2, scenario assumes that concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent of the work force) are present in the school; scenario 3, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer; scenario 4, scenario assumes that the school has assigned resource officer and concealed carry individual(s) (5-10 percent) present in the school.Main outcomes measured: Statistical data from modeling scenarios indicating which tested hypothesis resulted in fewer casualties and quicker culmination of event.Results: The use of AnyLogic proved the initial hypothesis that a decrease on response time to an active shooter scenario directly reduced victim casualties.Conclusions: Modeling tests show statistically significant fewer casualties in scenarios where on-scene armed responders such as resource officers and concealed carry personnel were present.
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Otavova, Martina, Herman Van Oyen, Renata T. C. Yokota, Rana Charafeddine, Luk Joossens, Geert Molenberghs, Wilma J. Nusselder, Hendriek C. Boshuizen, and Brecht Devleesschauwer. "Potential impact of reduced tobacco use on life and health expectancies in Belgium." International Journal of Public Health 65, no. 2 (November 28, 2019): 129–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00038-019-01315-z.
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Abstract Objectives We investigated the potential impact of reduced tobacco use scenarios on total life expectancy and health expectancies, i.e., healthy life years and unhealthy life years. Methods Data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey 2013 were used to estimate smoking and disability prevalence. Disability was based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator. We used DYNAMO-HIA to quantify the impacts of risk factor changes and to compare the “business-as-usual” with alternative scenarios. Results The “business-as-usual” scenario estimated that in 2028 the 15-year-old men/women would live additional 50/52 years without disability and 14/17 years with disability. The “smoking-free population” scenario added 3.4/2.8 healthy life years and reduced unhealthy life years by 0.79/1.9. Scenarios combining the prevention of smoking initiation with smoking cessation programs are the most effective, yielding the largest increase in healthy life years (1.9/1.7) and the largest decrease in unhealthy life years (− 0.80/− 1.47). Conclusions Health impact assessment tools provide different scenarios for evidence-informed public health actions. New anti-smoking strategies or stricter enforcement of existing policies potentially gain more healthy life years and reduce unhealthy life years in Belgium.
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Semukhina, Sofia, Dinara Bostanova, and Artem Lazarev. "Assessment of the consumer readiness to pay for investments in “green” electricity." E3S Web of Conferences 284 (2021): 06014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202128406014.
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The article is devoted to the analysis of the impact of the electroenergetics on the environment, as well as to the consideration of possible scenarios for minimizing the impact of electroenergetics on the ecosystem in the future, taking into account its investment prospects and benefits. The aim of the study was to develop the most likely scenario of the impact of the electric power industry on the ecosystem. The result of the study was the pessimistic, optimistic, and basic scenarios of the most likely impact of the electric power industry on the environment for the current situation in the world, the assessment of alternative sources of electricity as the main element of reducing the negative impact of electricity on the environment. The scenarios are considered by the consumer with pairwise comparisons. Understanding the relative environmental impacts of different sources of electricity is essential for developing sound energy policies and responsible investment.
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Huang, Canyi, Lina Cui, Hong Xia, Yiping Qiu, and Qing-Qing Ni. "A numerical study on the low-velocity impact behavior of the Twaron® fabric subjected to oblique impact." REVIEWS ON ADVANCED MATERIALS SCIENCE 60, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 980–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/rams-2021-0077.
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Abstract In this study, a finite element low-velocity impact model of Twaron® plain-woven fabric was created and analyzed using the commercial code ANSYS®-AUTODYN, and then was validated by drop-weight impact experiments. As a bullet or a fragment can strike a protective system from any angle in space, it is necessary to investigate fragment impact behavior response to impact threats from all angles of space. Therefore, in-plane obliquity θ, and spatial obliquity φ, were employed in this study and 17 different simulation test impact scenarios with different impact obliquity values were carried out using a standard hemispherical-head impactor. Results showed that the energy absorption of Twaron® fabric decreases with increasing θ, whereas under the same θ, the energy absorption increases with increasing φ. This study also evaluated and compared the low-velocity impact performance of Twaron® fabric as a function of impactor shape, such as hemispherical, flat, and ogival heads, with different θ. The results showed that under the same density, volume, and diameter conditions and at the normal impact scenario of a flat-head impactor, the fracture mechanism of the yarn is the same with all impact scenarios for a hemispherical-head impactor; the contacted yarns of the fabric fractured almost simultaneously. For the other oblique impact scenarios of the flat-head impactor, as well as impact scenarios of the ogival-head impactor, the yarns of the fabric fractured intermittently. Additionally, for the impact scenario with the ogival-head impactor, the effect of impact obliquity on energy absorption of the fabric was completely opposite to that of the hemispherical-head impact scenario. This is because in the hemispherical-head impact scenario, the fabric yarn tends to be damaged by tension, whereas in the ogival-head impact scenario, the fabric tends to be damaged by out-of-plane shear. These findings provide important guidance for the engineering of soft body armor and composite materials.
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Sówka, Izabela, Marcin Pawnuk, Urszula Miller, Agnieszka Grzelka, Alicja Wroniszewska, and Yaroslav Bezyk. "Assessment of the Odour Impact Range of a Selected Agricultural Processing Plant." Sustainability 12, no. 18 (September 5, 2020): 7289. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12187289.
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Within the research, on the premises of an agricultural plant, the odour concentration was measured, and the odour emission was determined. The obtained values allowed us to analyse the odour distribution using the Polish reference mathematical model for four different scenarios, including (1) all identified emission sources, i.e., point and surface: scenarios 1 and 2, and (2) only point sources, scenario 3 and 4. The values of the comparative level and the frequency of exceedances in scenarios 1 and 3 were based on the Polish draft act on counteracting odour nuisance, while the Dutch guidelines were used for scenarios 2 and 4. Model calculations showed the potential impact of the tested structure on adjacent residential areas, i.e., in scenarios 1 and 2, the permissible value of the frequency of exceedances was exceeded at all points representing residential buildings. The exceedances for scenario 3 and 4 took place in seven out of eight and two out of eight points, respectively. The results indicated that to accurately and reliably assess the odour impact and to determine the measures to prevent and reduce odour emissions, it is necessary to consider all types of emission sources in the facilities potentially causing odour nuisance.
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Suppanich, Poonnavich, Raksanai Nidhiritdhikrai, and Weerin Wangjiraniran. "Thailand Energy Scenarios to 2035." Advanced Materials Research 962-965 (June 2014): 1782–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.962-965.1782.
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The objective of this research is to explore Thailand energy scenarios to 2035. Based on decisions focus, energy security, social acceptance, and minimal environmental impact. From the studies by scenario planning method we found two main drivers affect to the scenario decision focus, consists of vulnerability of crude oil prices and government policy sanctioned by political will. The result of this research is Thailand energy scenarios to 2035, consists of 1) Healthy scenario, 2) Reference scenario, and 3) Coma scenario.
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Pamminger, Rainer, Sebastian Glaser, and Wolfgang Wimmer. "Modelling of different circular end-of-use scenarios for smartphones." International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 26, no. 3 (February 2, 2021): 470–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11367-021-01869-2.
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Abstract Purpose Repairing, refurbishing and remanufacturing are three strategies of the Circular Economy (CE), aiming at closing product cycles and maintaining materials and resources in the product cycle as long as possible. This paper analyses the environmental impacts of these three circular end-of-use scenarios (repairing, refurbishing and part remanufacturing) when performed on a common, “non-circular” smartphone. The underlying data used for this paper partly have been result of the Horizon 2020 project sustainablySMART, where circular product concepts have been developed and analysed in detail. Methods To analyse the environmental impacts of different circular end-of-use scenarios of smartphones, a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is performed. For considering the impact of a smartphone’s first life (e.g. materials, production), an economic allocation is used. Since the goal of the study was to better understand the environmental impacts of processing routes that enable multiple life cycles of a product, allocation according to the economic value is applied instead of applying system expansion. As system expansion provides just an aggregated view of the first and second product life cycles and no decision support at the end of the first life regarding the relevant CE strategy can be given. The economic allocation is based on the ratio between the residual market value and the original price from the scenario’s input stream of smartphones of the respective end-of-use scenario. To reach comparability of the results, a second-use-time-parameter is defined for each scenario. This parameter takes into account that the second use time reaches only a certain share from the average smart phone use time. Results This study shows that through all three circular strategies, a reduction in the investigated impact categories—Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Abiotic Depletion Potential (ADP)—can be achieved. Conclusions The analysed end-of-use scenarios repairing and refurbishing show the highest potential for smartphones in terms of Circular Economy, as most of the environmental impacts can be allocated to the device production, and the impact of additional steps to perform CE-strategies (e.g. collection of discarded phones, refurbishing) is rather low.
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Margreth, Stefan, and Walter J. Ammann. "Hazard scenarios for avalanche actions on bridges." Annals of Glaciology 38 (2004): 89–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814951.
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AbstractEngineers require impact scenarios when developing hazard mitigation strategies to protect structures against snow avalanches. Since direct measurements of avalanche impacts on large obstacles are rare, the documentation and post-event analysis of avalanche damages is essential to understand the interaction of avalanches with obstacles. The objective of this paper is to develop hazard scenarios for avalanche actions on bridges, based on a case study of a well-documented avalanche event. The 40 m long pre-stressed road bridge Ri di Rialp in the Swiss Alps collapsed after being struck by a dense-flow avalanche in 1998. The post-event analysis shows that the controlling hazard scenario was an inclined avalanche impact, not a horizontal impact as one would assume given the topographical situation. Using a failure analysis, an impact angle of 40° and a minimal impact pressure of 172 kN m−2 were found. Finally the insights are summarized so that engineers can apply the results when designing a bridge at risk from avalanches.
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Kok, Kasper, and Mathijs van Vliet. "Using a participatory scenario development toolbox: added values and impact on quality of scenarios." Journal of Water and Climate Change 2, no. 2-3 (June 1, 2011): 87–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2011.032.
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To capture a system's uncertainty, a participatory, integrated approach is a prerequisite of many scenario development projects. Increasingly, a toolbox of methods is employed to facilitate stakeholder input. In this paper we evaluate four potential added values of using a toolbox of methods and the effect on the quality of resulting scenarios. Ten case studies within a large project (SCENES), that set out to develop participatory scenarios for Europe's freshwaters, are used to test our hypotheses. We analysed a first series of scenario workshops, evaluating (dis)advantages of the toolbox and the quality of scenarios as perceived by stakeholders and local organisers. As can be deduced from the resulting scenarios, results indicate that all hypothesised added values materialised to some extent. Using a toolbox enlarges the possibilities to: (1) adapt to local circumstances; (2) adapt to a variety of stakeholders; (3) compare results across scales and across case studies; and (4) facilitate a link of models and stories. However, a careful balance has to be found between the length of workshop, number and type of tools employed, and previous experience of stakeholders and local organisers. The results have implications for practitioners setting out to develop water or climate adaptation scenarios that could benefit from all the added values tested here. Finally, employing a toolbox can positively influence scenario quality, although more structured tests are needed.
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Biratu, Abera Assefa, Bobe Bedadi, Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot, Assefa M. Melesse, Tilahun Hordofa Nebi, Wuletawu Abera, Lulseged Tamene, and Anthony Egeru. "Impact of Landscape Management Scenarios on Ecosystem Service Values in Central Ethiopia." Land 11, no. 8 (August 7, 2022): 1266. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land11081266.
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This study aimed at modeling scenarios of future land use and land cover (LULC) change and estimating ecosystem service (ES) values for the year 2051 compared to 2021 in Central Ethiopia. The future LULC changes for the year 2051 were simulated for four scenarios, namely Business-as-Usual (BAU), Rapid Agricultural Expansion (RAE), Ecosystems Protection and Agricultural Development (EPAD) and Landscape Ecosystems Restoration and Conservation (LERC). The four LULC change scenarios were simulated based on anticipated assumptions that were derived from existing spatial policies, a consultation workshop report on scenarios of agricultural development in Ethiopia, suitability analysis, population growth analysis and expert knowledge of the study area characteristics. We used a Multi-Layer Perceptron–Artificial Neuron Network (MLP–ANN) model-based projected LULC for the BAU scenario and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to generate RAE, EPAD and LERC scenarios in the study landscape. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the total ES values and for trade-off analysis. The result showed that LULC changes in the study area varied across simulated scenarios compared to the base year 2021. Under the BAU and RAE scenarios, cultivated land increased by 146,548 ha (22%) and 193,965 ha (29%), whereas forest, water body, wetland and shrub-bush land were reduced. However, forest cover increased by 31,725 ha and 100,080 ha but bare land was reduced by 8466 ha (21%) and 10,379 ha (25%) under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. The forest cover annual rate of change was 3.2% and 6% under the EPAD and LERC scenarios. As a result, the total ES value increased by USD 24.5 and 78.5 million under the EPAD and LERC scenarios for the year 2051, whereas the total ES value was reduced under the BAU and RAE scenarios by USD 27.1 and 73.2 million. The trade-offs among ecosystem services were significantly synergized under the LERC scenario compared to RAE. Therefore, EPAD and LERC could be used as a reference for sustainable landscape planning and management. Landscape ecosystems restoration integrated with a sustainable agricultural intensification approach would enable us to ensure the sustainability of both agricultural production and ecosystem service synergies without negatively affecting the natural environment.
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Ciaian, P. "Land use changes in the EU: Policy and macro impact analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 53, No. 12 (January 7, 2008): 565–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/900-agricecon.
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This paper analyses the impact of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and macroeconomy on land use changes in the EU. Three scenarios are simulated up to 2030: baseline, macro scenario and policy scenario. Simulation results indicate that GDP leads to a stronger effect on land use changes than the CAP. Stronger changes in land use are observed at the crop disaggregated level than at the aggregated level for the total agricultural area, arable land, grassland and permanent crops.
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Deep, Nayan. "Impact of covid on economic scenarios." ACADEMICIA: An International Multidisciplinary Research Journal 12, no. 6 (2022): 417–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5958/2249-7137.2022.00683.8.
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Swart, R., J. Mitchell, T. Morita, and S. Raper. "Stabilisation scenarios for climate impact assessment." Global Environmental Change 12, no. 3 (October 2002): 155–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0959-3780(02)00039-0.
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Nijkamp, Peter, and Gabriella Vindigni. "Impact assessment of qualitative policy scenarios." Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 14, no. 1 (March 2003): 108–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14777830310460423.
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Shields, Martin, Steven C. Deller, and Judith I. Stallmann. "Comparing the Impacts of Retiree versus Working-Age Families on a Small Rural Region: An Application of the Wisconsin Economic Impact Modeling System." Agricultural and Resource Economics Review 30, no. 1 (April 2001): 20–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1068280500000514.
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The Wisconsin Economic Impact Modeling System, a conjoined input-output/econometric model of Wisconsin counties, is used to simulate the economic and fiscal impact of two alternative residential development patterns. Under the first scenario, the impact of migrating retirees on a small tri-county region in northern Wisconsin is examined. Under the second scenario, the impact of the migration of younger families with children is examined. A comparison-contrast between the two scenarios demonstrates that the characteristics of the migrating household can have a significant impact on the nature of the impacts.
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Oztanriseven, Furkan, Heather Nachtmann, and Samareh Moradpour. "Economic Impact of Investment Scenarios in the McClellan-Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 7 (July 3, 2022): 923. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10070923.
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The McClellan–Kerr Arkansas River Navigation System (MKARNS) is challenged by an aging infrastructure and by limited maintenance budgets, all of which cause transportation delays. In this study, the Maritime Transportation Simulator (MarTranS), which is a hybrid of agent-based modeling, discrete-event simulation, system dynamics, and multiregional input-output analysis, was adopted to model the relationship between the components of the system and economic impact factors. Real-world scenarios were analyzed to explore the economic impacts of various patterns of investment in the MKARNS. These scenarios include a base scenario (in which the system infrastructure remains unchanged and no future investments are made), investment scenarios (e.g., investing in deepening of the navigation channel, port expansion, and lock/dam rehabilitation), and a demand-change scenario focused on the impacts of the Panama Canal expansion. The results reveal that the MKARNS under current circumstances is not sustainable in the long term and that future economic investment is needed if it is to continue operations. In addition, among the different system components, locks/dams are the primary sources of system delays, so these should be targeted for investment and reconstruction to sustain and enhance the beneficial economic impacts of the system.
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Köplin, N., B. Schädler, D. Viviroli, and R. Weingartner. "The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 2 (February 11, 2013): 619–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-619-2013.
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Abstract. Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios were derived from ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project. Their respective temperature and precipitation changes between the scenario period (2074–2095) and the control period (1984–2005) were used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest) was assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA). Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland were analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51%) and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area). The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as changes in evaporation or soil moisture are concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchments with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in this study, though, is the climate scenario and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in the impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e., a humid, mid-latitude mountainous environment. They might be different for regions where the evaporation is a major component of the water balance, for example. Nevertheless, a hydrological climate-impact study that assesses the additional impacts of forest and glacier change is new so far and provides insight into the question whether or not it is necessary to account for land cover changes as part of climate change impacts on hydrological systems.
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Tymstra, Cordy, Mike D. Flannigan, Owen B. Armitage, and Kimberley Logan. "Impact of climate change on area burned in Alberta's boreal forest." International Journal of Wildland Fire 16, no. 2 (2007): 153. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf06084.
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Eight years of fire weather data from sixteen representative weather stations within the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta were used to compile reference weather streams for low, moderate, high, very high and extreme Fire Weather Index (FWI) conditions. These reference weather streams were adjusted to create daily weather streams for input into Prometheus – the Canadian Wildland Fire Growth Model. Similar fire weather analyses were completed using Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) output for northern Alberta (174 grid cells) to generate FWI class datasets (temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Duff Moisture Code and Drought Code) for 1 ×, 2 × and 3 × CO2 scenarios. The relative differences between the CRCM scenario outputs were then used to adjust the reference weather streams for northern Alberta. Area burned was calculated for 21 fires, fire weather classes and climate change scenarios. The area burned estimates were weighted based on the historical frequency of area burned by FWI class, and then normalized to derive relative area burned estimates for each climate change scenario. The 2 × and 3 × CO2 scenarios resulted in a relative increase in area burned of 12.9 and 29.4% from the reference 1 × CO2 scenario.
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Sugden, Isaac J., David F. Plant, and Robert G. Bell. "Impact scenarios in boron carbide: A computational study." Journal of Theoretical and Computational Chemistry 15, no. 07 (November 2016): 1650055. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219633616500553.
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The effect of radiative impacts on the structure of boron carbide has been studied by both classical and ab initio simulations. As a part of this study, a new forcefield was developed for use in studying boron carbide materials. Impact scenarios in boron carbide were simulated in order to investigate the exceptional resistance of this material, and other icosahedral boron solids, to high-energy impact events. It was observed that interstitial defects created by radiative impacts are likely to be quenched locally, utilizing the high substitutional disorder of chains and cages in the boron carbide structure, rather than via impacted atoms recombining with their vacated lattice site.
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Vaighan, Amir Asadi, Nasser Talebbeydokhti, Alireza Massah Bavani, and Paul Whitehead. "Modeling impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, nitrate, and ammonium in the Kor River, southwest of Iran." Journal of Water and Climate Change 10, no. 4 (July 9, 2018): 818–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.098.
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Abstract This study examined the separate and combined impacts of future changes in climate and land use on streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the Kor River Basin, southwest of Iran, using the representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Different land use and climate change scenarios were used and the streamflow, nitrate and ammonium in the future period (2020–2049) under these scenarios were simulated by Integrated Catchment Model for Nitrogen (INCA–N). Results indicated that climate change will increase streamflows and decrease nitrate and ammonium concentrations in summer and autumn. Land use changes were found to have a little impact on streamflows but a significant impact on water quality, particularly under an urban development scenario. Under combined scenarios, larger seasonal changes in streamflows and mixed changes of nitrate and ammonium concentrations were predicted.
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McKinney, Earl H., and Kevin J. Davis. "Effects of Deliberate Practice on Crisis Decision Performance." Human Factors: The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 45, no. 3 (September 2003): 436–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1518/hfes.45.3.436.27251.
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This study examined the impact of deliberate practice on pilot decision making in once-in-a-career crisis decision scenarios. First we explored the impact of deliberate practice on pilot decision-making performance for crisis flying scenarios that had been practiced in their entirety. Then we looked at the impact of deliberate practice in which one aspect of the crisis scenario - the particular malfunction - was unpracticed. We analyzed pilot decision-making performance in response to 160 airborne mechanical malfunctions. We initially found that deliberate practice significantly improves decision-making performance for wholly practiced crises but does not improve decision-making performance when the specific malfunction has not been practiced. We then split decision making for each crisis into two phases: assessment and action selection. For wholly practiced crisis scenarios, additional deliberate practice positively impacts each decision-making phase. However, for part-practiced scenarios, deliberate practice appears to differentially affect phase of error. Specifically, pilots with more deliberate practice erred in action selection, whereas less-practiced pilots erred in assessment. Actual or potential applications of this research include training proscriptions for crisis decision making.
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Hearn, Jeff. "Sexualities, organizations and organization sexualities: Future scenarios and the impact of socio-technologies (a transnational perspective from the global ‘north’)." Organization 21, no. 3 (February 24, 2014): 400–420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1350508413519764.
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The article opens by briefly reviewing studies of sexuality in and around organizations from the 1970s. These studies showed considerable theoretical, empirical and conceptual development, as in the concept of organization sexuality. Building on this, the article’s first task is to analyse alternative future scenarios for organization sexualities, by way of changing intersections of gender, sexuality and organizational forms. Possible gendered future scenarios are outlined based on, first, gender equality/inequality and, second, gender similarity/difference between women, men and further genders: hyper-patriarchy scenario—men and women becoming more divergent; with greater inequality; late capitalist gender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater inequality; bi-polar scenario—men and women becoming more divergent, with greater equality; postgender scenario—genders becoming more convergent, with greater equality. Somewhat similar scenarios for organization sexualities are elaborated in terms of gender/sexual equality and inequality and sexual/gender similarity and difference: heteropatriarchies scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender inequality; late capitalist sexual scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or gender/sexual inequality; sexual differentiation scenario—greater sexual/gender difference and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality; sexual blurring scenario—greater sexual/gender similarity and greater sexual or sexual/gender equality. The article’s second task is to addresses the impact of globalizations and transnationalizations, specifically information and communication technologies and other socio-technologies, for future scenarios of organization sexualities. The characteristic affordances of ICTs—technological control, virtual reproducibility, conditional communality, unfinished undecidability—are mapped onto the four scenarios above and the implications outlined.
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LeBlanc, Vicki R., Cheryl Regehr, Walter Tavares, Aristathemos K. Scott, Russell MacDonald, and Kevin King. "The Impact of Stress on Paramedic Performance During Simulated Critical Events." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 27, no. 4 (July 25, 2012): 369–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x12001021.
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AbstractObjectivesSubstantial research demonstrates that the stressors accompanying the profession of paramedicine can lead to mental health concerns. In contrast, little is known about the effects of stress on paramedics’ ability to care for patients during stressful events. In this study, we examined paramedics’ acute stress responses and performance during simulated high-stress scenarios.MethodsTwenty-two advanced care paramedics participated in simulated low-stress and high-stress clinical scenarios. The paramedics provided salivary cortisol samples and completed an anxiety questionnaire at baseline and following each scenario. Clinical performance was videotaped and scored on a checklist of specific actions and a global rating of performance. The paramedics also completed patient care documentation following each scenario.ResultsThe paramedics demonstrated greater increases in anxiety (P < .05) and salivary cortisol levels (P < .05) in response to the high-stress scenario compared to the low-stress scenario. Global rating scores were significantly lower in the high-stress scenario than in the low-stress scenario (P < .05). Checklist scores were not significantly different between the two scenarios (P = .12). There were more errors of commission (reporting information not present in the scenario) in the patient care documentation following the high-stress scenario than following the low-stress scenario (P < .05). In contrast, there were no differences in omission errors (failing to recall information present in the scenario) between the two scenarios (P = .34).ConclusionClinical performance and documentation appear vulnerable to the impact of acute stress. This highlights the importance of developing systems and training interventions aimed at supporting and preparing emergency workers who face acute stressors as part of their every day work responsibilities.LeBlanc VR, Regehr C, Tavares W, Scott AK, MacDonald R, King K. The impact of stress on paramedic performance during simulated critical events. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2012;27(4):1-6.
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Broniewicz, Elżbieta, and Karolina Dec. "Environmental Impact of Demolishing a Steel Structure Design for Disassembly." Energies 15, no. 19 (October 7, 2022): 7358. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15197358.
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The encouraging Design for Disassembly appears in the literature more and more often. Such a design appears to offer clear environmental advantages. However, there are still not enough research results to support the existence of these benefits. The authors using the Life Cycle Assessment method, which assesses the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions during the demolition and operation of steel structure. Steel is completely recyclable and, in terms of tonnage, is the most recycled material worldwide. We assessed three scenarios: (1) complete re-remelting (recycling) of the structure; (2) partial reuse of construction elements + remelting (recovery + recycling); and (3) complete reuse of the structure (recovery). GaBi software was used for the analysis. It was found that the environmental impact varied significantly among the examined scenarios. The first scenario poses the greatest environmental burden. However, compared to Scenario no. 1, Scenario 3’s environmental impact is more than 70% lower.
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Junne, Tobias, Sonja Simon, Jens Buchgeister, Maximilian Saiger, Manuel Baumann, Martina Haase, Christina Wulf, and Tobias Naegler. "Environmental Sustainability Assessment of Multi-Sectoral Energy Transformation Pathways: Methodological Approach and Case Study for Germany." Sustainability 12, no. 19 (October 6, 2020): 8225. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12198225.
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In order to analyse long-term transformation pathways, energy system models generally focus on economical and technical characteristics. However, these models usually do not consider sustainability aspects such as environmental impacts. In contrast, life cycle assessment enables an extensive estimate of those impacts. Due to these complementary characteristics, the combination of energy system models and life cycle assessment thus allows comprehensive environmental sustainability assessments of technically and economically feasible energy system transformation pathways. We introduce FRITS, a FRamework for the assessment of environmental Impacts of Transformation Scenarios. FRITS links bottom-up energy system models with life cycle impact assessment indicators and quantifies the environmental impacts of transformation strategies of the entire energy system (power, heat, transport) over the transition period. We apply the framework to conduct an environmental assessment of multi-sectoral energy scenarios for Germany. Here, a ‘Target’ scenario reaching 80% reduction of energy-related direct CO2 emissions is compared with a ‘Reference’ scenario describing a less ambitious transformation pathway. The results show that compared to 2015 and the ‘Reference’ scenario, the ‘Target’ scenario performs better for most life cycle impact assessment indicators. However, the impacts of resource consumption and land use increase for the ‘Target’ scenario. These impacts are mainly caused by road passenger transport and biomass conversion.
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Partridge, Ann H., Karen Sepucha, Anne O'Neill, Kathy Miller, Emily Baker, Chau T. Dang, Donald W. Northfelt, George W. Sledge, and Bryan P. Schneider. "Does biomarker information impact patients’ preferences for therapy?" Journal of Clinical Oncology 31, no. 15_suppl (May 20, 2013): 6527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1200/jco.2013.31.15_suppl.6527.
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6527 Background: Biomarker information can risk stratify patients based on potential for benefits/toxicity from therapy. Ideally, a biomarker will identify those who benefit with limited toxicity. However, the impact of biomarkers is unclear when indicting individuals with greatest benefit are also at increased risk for toxicity. Methods: We surveyed participants at 18 month follow-up in the Decision-Making/Quality of Life (DM-QOL) component of ECOG5103, a RCT where patients were randomized to receive adjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer with either placebo or bevacizumab (in 2 schedules). We asked patients for the preferred treatment in two hypothetical scenarios: 1) preference for chemo A or chemo A + B without biomarker information; 2) preference for chemo A or chemo A+B when participants tested positive for a “B-receptor” which increased both the benefit and toxicity of chemo A+B. McNemar’s test was used to examine changes in preferences. Results: 439 patients completed both scenarios on 18-month survey. The Table shows the treatment preferences in each scenario. The positive biomarker information in scenario 2 led 60/439 (14%) participants to switch their preference. The main reason for treatment preference in scenario 2 was greater benefits of chemo A+B (64%), the lower risks with chemo A (20%) and positive biomarker (10%). Among participants who changed preference, those randomized to receive bevacizumab were more likely to switch to chemo A in scenario 2. Conclusions: Information about a positive biomarker, indicating increased benefit and increased risk from additional chemo, did not significantly change participants’ preferred treatment. All participants were involved in a large placebo controlled double blind trial and the majority (70%) preferred the most aggressive course of treatment in both scenarios. Whether patients not enrolled in the trial would be more sensitive to the increased risk information is unclear. [Table: see text]
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Wulandari, Suci, and Slamet Raharjo. "GWP, AP, and EP Contribution on Potential Improving Scenarios of Domestic SWM in Padang City: A Review." Jurnal Presipitasi : Media Komunikasi dan Pengembangan Teknik Lingkungan 18, no. 1 (January 3, 2021): 108–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/presipitasi.v18i1.108-115.
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The increase in solid waste generation is incompatible with solid waste management (SWM). Padang city have a small processing percentage of 5% through composting and recyling. Improper and nonoptimal SWM lead to many obstacles including climate change, water and soil contamination, to creatures life disturbance. By conducting Impact Assessment and Contribution Analysis, this study examines the most impact contributor of unit processes in four scenarios of domestic solid waste management in Padang City. Scenario 0 presents the existing condition; scenarios 1, 2, and 3 present the improvement of Scenario 0 in recycling percentage rate and technology implementation in a row by composting, incineration, and anaerobic digestion. CML2001, impact assessment method by Center of Environmental Sciences of Leiden University, is used to assess the environmental impact of Global Warming Potential (GWP), Acidification Potential (AP), and Eutrophication Potential (EP). This study found that the significant impact for the four scenarios is GWP by the contribution percentage over 72%. While EP is the second place in the contribution range of 1.70% to 5.46%, and followed by AP under 0.91%. Scenario 1 is the best scenario due to the small contribution of impact compared to other scernarios, and potentially to be applied by modification in increase of composting percentage and additional recovery gas in landfill.
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Kim, Young Do, Jung Min Kim, and Boosik Kang. "Projection of runoff and sediment yield under coordinated climate change and urbanization scenarios in Doam dam watershed, Korea." Journal of Water and Climate Change 8, no. 2 (October 28, 2016): 235–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2016.068.
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A hydro-environmental model chain in the Doam dam basin, Korea, was developed for an impact assessment under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's A1B scenario. The feasible downscaling scheme composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) and non-stationary quantile mapping was applied to the GCM (Global Climate Model) output. The impacts under climate and land use change scenarios were examined and projected using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The daily SWAT model was calibrated and validated for 2003–2004 and 2006–2008, respectively. Meanwhile the monthly SS (suspended solids) was calibrated and validated for 1999–2001 and 2007–2009, respectively. The simulation results illustrated that under the assumption of 1–5% urbanization of the forest area, the hydrologic impact is relatively negligible and the climate change impacts are dominant over the urbanization impacts. Additionally the partial impacts of land use changes were analyzed under five different scenarios: partial change of forest to urban (PCFUr), to bare field, to grassland, to upland crop (PCFUp), and to agriculture (PCFA). The analysis of the runoff change shows the highest rate of increase, 73.57% in April, for the PCFUp scenario. The second and third highest rate increases, 37.83% and 31.45% in May, occurred under the PCFA and PCFUr scenarios, respectively.
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Rouhani, Hamed, and Marayam Sadat Jafarzadeh. "Assessing the climate change impact on hydrological response in the Gorganrood River Basin, Iran." Journal of Water and Climate Change 9, no. 3 (November 8, 2017): 421–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2017.207.
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Abstract A general circulation model (GCM) and hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) under forcing from A1B, B1, and A2 emission scenarios by 2030 were used to assess the implications of climate change on water balance of the Gorganrood River Basin (GRB). The results of MPEH5C models and multi-scenarios indicated that monthly precipitation generally decreases while temperature increases in various parts of the basin with the magnitude of the changes in terms of different stations and scenarios. Accordingly, seasonal ET will decrease throughout the GRB over the 2020s in all seasons except in summer, where a slight increase is projected for A1B and A2 scenarios. At annual scale, average quick flow and average low flow under the B1, A1B, and A2 scenarios are projected to decrease by 7.3 to 12.0% from the historical levels. Over the ensembles of climate change scenarios, the simulations project average autumn total flow declines of ∼10% and an overall range of 6.9 to 13.2%. In summer, the components of flow at the studied basin are expected to increase under A2 and A1B scenarios but will slightly decrease under B1 scenario. The study result addresses a likelihood of inevitable future climate change.
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Liao, K. J., E. Tagaris, K. Manomaiphiboon, C. Wang, J. H. Woo, P. Amar, S. He, and A. G. Russell. "Quantification of impact of climate uncertainty on regional air quality." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 8, no. 2 (April 21, 2008): 7781–804. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-8-7781-2008.
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Abstract. Impacts of uncertain climate forecasts on future regional air quality are investigated using downscaled MM5 meteorological fields from the NASA GISS and MIT IGSM global climate models and the CMAQ model in 2050 in the continental US. Three future climate scenarios: high-extreme, low-extreme and base, are developed for regional air quality simulations. GISS, with the IPCC A1B scenario, is used for the base case. IGSM results, in the form of probabilistic distributions, are used to perturb the base case climate to provide 0.5th and 99.5th percentile climate scenarios. Impacts of the extreme climate scenarios on concentrations of summertime fourth-highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone are predicted to be up to 10 ppbv (about one-eighth of the current NAAQS of ozone) in some urban areas, though average differences in ozone concentrations are about 1–2 ppbv on a regional basis. Differences between the extreme and base scenarios in annualized PM2.5 levels are very location dependent and predicted to range between −1.0 and +1.5 μg m−3. Future annualized PM2.5 is less sensitive to the extreme climate scenarios than summertime peak ozone since precipitation scavenging is only slightly affected by the extreme climate scenarios examined. Relative abundances of biogenic VOC and anthropogenic NOx lead to the areas that are most responsive to climate change. Such areas may find that climate change can significantly offset air quality improvements from emissions reductions, particularly during the most severe episodes.
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Herr, Vincent, Adam K. Kochanski, Van V. Miller, Rich McCrea, Dan O'Brien, and Jan Mandel. "A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations in wildland fire suppression decisions." International Journal of Wildland Fire 29, no. 3 (2020): 282. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf18237.
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A method for estimating the socioeconomic impact of Earth observations is proposed and deployed. The core of the method is the analysis of outcomes of hypothetical fire suppression scenarios generated using a coupled atmosphere–fire behaviour model, based on decisions made by an experienced wildfire incident management team with and without the benefits of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) satellite observations and the WRF-SFIRE wildfire behaviour simulation system. The scenarios were based on New Mexico’s 2011 Las Conchas fire. For each scenario, fire break line location decisions served as inputs to the model, generating fire progression outcomes. Fire model output was integrated with a property database containing thousands of coordinates and property values and other asset values to estimate the total losses associated with each scenario. An attempt to estimate the socioeconomic impact of satellite and modelling data used during the decision-making process was made. We analysed the impact of Earth observations and include considerations for estimating other socioeconomic impacts.
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Chojan, Adrian. "Brexit and Its Impact on Poland’s Policy Towards Europe – An Attempt to Forecast." Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs 24, no. 2 (July 19, 2020): 91–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.33067/se.2.2020.5.
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Brexit has betrayed the disadvantages of the European project along with the fact that European institutions have no desire to conduct deeper reforms. Brexit cannot be considered without the stance that the British have developed not only in the last few years but generally over the period of its integration with continental Europe. A study shows the political consequences of the UK’s exit from the European Union alog with the potential scenarios of Poland’s European policy in the next 2–3 years. This article presents three scenarios for the development of Poland's European policy, i.e. the British scenario, a conservative scenario and a pro-European scenario. In addition, this article aims to show the potential activities of the Polish government in the context of selected scenarios for the development of the situation in Europe. Currently, the most likely is the British scenario, where the Polish government concentrates on those areas of integration that are important to it. The European Union will be treated by Poland as an economic organization providing access to the common European market as well as political support in the event of disputes with the powers. The adoption of the British scenario by Poland assumes an evolutionary drift towards polexit. The least realistic choice of scenario is the strongly pro-European approach. This would require a total change in Poland's European policy strategy and the abandoning of internal reforms.
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Grzesik, Katarzyna. "The environmental impact of municipal waste management systems." E3S Web of Conferences 45 (2018): 00020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184500020.
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An efficient and effective waste management system is one of the key issues for urban areas. Such a waste management system should be effective and economically viable with minimal environmental impact. The Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology is an effective tool for identifying and assessing environmental impacts, it also enables comparing alternative waste management options. The aim of this study is to identify and assess the environmental impacts caused by the waste management system of mixed municipal waste for the city of Krakow for the year 2017. Three scenarios are evaluated for mixed waste: 1) incineration in a new waste-to-energy plant, 2) mechanical-biological treatment (MBT), ballast and stabilized waste is landfilled, refuse derived fuel (RDF) is produced but not incinerated, 3) treatment in the MBT plant, with incineration of RDF in the waste-to-energy plant. The results of modelling show that all scenarios exert a negative impact on the environment in some impact categories, while in other categories - a positive impact. Taking into account the values in all impact categories, the scenario with the lowest overall environmental impact is MBT with incineration.
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Pedro Panagassi Forte, João, and Vasco Rato. "Energy environmental impact of functional units of a university building." E3S Web of Conferences 111 (2019): 03018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201911103018.
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This paper presents the results of a qualitative assessment of the environmental impact of a set of functional units of a university building, considering negative impacts such as the ones originated by energy, water and resource usage, as well as waste production, but also positive impacts like the ones that may be derived from teaching and learning and from research. This paper is focused on the energy –related environmental impacts which are the most significant. The assessment is performed for three evaluation scenarios: Two of these scenarios are based on the actual condition of the building facilities and its use patterns and differ from each other in the level of severity attributed to each impact criteria. The third scenario has as additional input the future condition of electric energy production through the installation of photovoltaic (PV) panels (which is in progress). According to the assessment carried out, the implementation of the PV panels may have an important contribution in reducing the environmental impact related to the use of the building.
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Marty, Christoph, Sebastian Schlögl, Mathias Bavay, and Michael Lehning. "How much can we save? Impact of different emission scenarios on future snow cover in the Alps." Cryosphere 11, no. 1 (February 16, 2017): 517–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-517-2017.
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Abstract. This study focuses on an assessment of the future snow depth for two larger Alpine catchments. Automatic weather station data from two diverse regions in the Swiss Alps have been used as input for the Alpine3D surface process model to compute the snow cover at a 200 m horizontal resolution for the reference period (1999–2012). Future temperature and precipitation changes have been computed from 20 downscaled GCM-RCM chains for three different emission scenarios, including one intervention scenario (2 °C target) and for three future time periods (2020–2049, 2045–2074, 2070–2099). By applying simple daily change values to measured time series of temperature and precipitation, small-scale climate scenarios have been calculated for the median estimate and extreme changes. The projections reveal a decrease in snow depth for all elevations, time periods and emission scenarios. The non-intervention scenarios demonstrate a decrease of about 50 % even for elevations above 3000 m. The most affected elevation zone for climate change is located below 1200 m, where the simulations show almost no snow towards the end of the century. Depending on the emission scenario and elevation zone the winter season starts half a month to 1 month later and ends 1 to 3 months earlier in this last scenario period. The resulting snow cover changes may be roughly equivalent to an elevation shift of 500–800 or 700–1000 m for the two non-intervention emission scenarios. At the end of the century the number of snow days may be more than halved at an elevation of around 1500 m and only 0–2 snow days are predicted in the lowlands. The results for the intervention scenario reveal no differences for the first scenario period but clearly demonstrate a stabilization thereafter, comprising much lower snow cover reductions towards the end of the century (ca. 30 % instead of 70 %).
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Waqas, Muhammad Mohsin, Syed Hamid Hussain Shah, Usman Khalid Awan, Muhammad Waseem, Ishfaq Ahmad, Muhammad Fahad, Yasir Niaz, and Sikandar Ali. "Evaluating the Impact of Climate Change on Water Productivity of Maize in the Semi-Arid Environment of Punjab, Pakistan." Sustainability 12, no. 9 (May 11, 2020): 3905. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12093905.
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Impact assessments on climate change are essential for the evaluation and management of irrigation water in farming practices in semi-arid environments. This study was conducted to evaluate climate change impacts on water productivity of maize in farming practices in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) system. Two fields of maize were selected and monitored to calibrate and validate the model. A water productivity analysis was performed using the Soil–Water–Atmosphere–Plant (SWAP) model. Baseline climate data (1980–2010) for the study site were acquired from the weather observatory of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD). Future climate change data were acquired from the Hadley Climate model version 3 (HadCM3). Statistical downscaling was performed using the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) for the A2 and B2 scenarios of HadCM3. The water productivity assessment was performed for the midcentury (2040–2069) scenario. The maximum increase in the average maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) was found in the month of July under the A2 and B2 scenarios. The scenarios show a projected increase of 2.8 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under A2 as well as 2.7 °C for Tmax and 3.2 °C for Tmin under B2 for the midcentury. Similarly, climate change scenarios showed that temperature is projected to decrease, with the average minimum and maximum temperatures of 7.4 and 6.4 °C under the A2 scenario and 7.7 and 6.8 °C under the B2 scenario in the middle of the century, respectively. However, the highest precipitation will decrease by 56 mm under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the middle of the century for the month of September. The input and output data of the SWAP model were processed in R programming for the easy working of the model. The negative impact of climate change was found under the A2 and B2 scenarios during the midcentury. The maximum decreases in Potential Water Productivity (WPET) and Actual Water Productivity (WPAI) from the baseline period to the midcentury scenario of 1.1 to 0.85 kgm−3 and 0.7 to 0.56 kgm−3 were found under the B2 scenario. Evaluation of irrigation practices directs the water managers in making suitable water management decisions for the improvement of water productivity in the changing climate.