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Arikoglu, Emine Serap. "The impact of scenarios and personas on requirement elicitation : an experimental study." Thesis, Grenoble, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011GRENI033/document.
Full textAbstract:
La problématique centrale de la thèse est l'évaluation de l'impact de démarches utilisant la formulation de scénarios et de personnages sur les phases d'expression des besoins en conception innovante. La méthodologie de recherche mise en œuvre est une démarche empirique qui s'appuie sur l'analyse de situations de conception. Au cours du doctorat, un protocole expérimental mis en œuvre a été dupliqué trois fois dans des laboratoires partenaires. Cette recherche aboutit à un mémoire de thèse qui présente plusieurs contributions : La première contribution se situe autour de la méthodologie de recherche proposée. Le protocole d'étude empirique mis en place est original, il s'appuie sur l'état de l'art des réflexions de la communauté et sur ces démarches de recherche, et proposes des éléments nouveaux à cette réflexion en conciliant approches quantitatives et qualitatives. La seconde contribution porte sur la caractérisation de l'impact des méthodologies étudiées sur la construction d'une représentation partagée du problème de conception et de la formalisation des exigences de conception. Enfin la troisième contribution porte sur l'analyse des interactions dans les activités de conception étudiées. Les analyses identifient et qualifient les impacts des méthodes étudiées sur le contenu des interactions dans les phases amont de la conceptionIn this study, we are more concerned with the early stages of the new product design: the product definition phase. The fundamental purpose of this phase is to gather right kind of information in a way that allows the formalization of stakeholder needs into a set of requirements. Literature review on this phase shows the difficulty to elicit needs of so called intended users and have a shared understanding of their requirements between design actors. To overcome these obstacles, support methods can be used. However, the appropriateness and effectiveness of the various methods is unknown. Our assumption in this research project is that scenarios and personas can be used as support methods to handle above-mentioned obstacles. An experiment is designed and conducted in a laboratory environment in order to test this assumption. The question of whether they have an impact on the creation of shared understanding between design actors is discussed under two sub-categories: perspective clarification and convergence to a common perspective. On the other hand, their impact on the elicitation of the intended user requirements is observed under three sub-categories: requirement elicitation, capture of the design rationale and creation of the empathy. Some qualitative and quantitative indicators are proposed to evaluate these impacts. Based on the analysis of seven observed collaborative design sessions, the findings of research study are discussed. The results points out that the major impact of these methods is that they evoke empathy for the intended users. In the groups that these methods are used the discussions are also richer regarding to the number of different needs are addressed. Moreover, these methods are also promising to keep the trace of design rationale. However design actors have tendency to accept them just as communication support, rather than documentation one. As a communication support they help design actors to clarify their arguments, to negotiate and to take decisions. However, the findings were not adequate to conclude that they have a significant impact on the perspective clarification and convergence. Hence, the main contribution of this research lies from one part in the evaluation of the impacts of these methods in requirement elicitation activity. And, in other part description of a research approach, which guides the experimental study in engineering design
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Zanette, Alberto <1997>. "The impact of Quantum Computing on business models: possible scenarios." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/20843.
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The "quantum race" and the quantum computer, a type of computational architecture based on principles of quantum physics, are about to get to the heart.
Thanks to the research at the Digital Innovation Observatories of the Politecnico di Milano, I got to know this new technology that promises to redesign the concept of computers, guaranteeing a computational power unreachable by traditional computers. Probably we can think that the quantum computer is futuristic, still a hypothesis, the reality says something else: we can already develop applications and algorithms on (though primitive) quantum architectures.
What will be the effect of the Quantum Computer? On which sectors? And how could it impact the business models of companies in these sectors? These are some questions that I would like to investigate in this work.
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Ali, Azhar. "End of life scenarios for the Re-load pallets-how different waste scenarios impacts the life cycle environmental impact comparison with other pallet type." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-15578.
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Increasing consumption and transportation gears the use of transport utilities which cause environmental effects over the globe. Environmental performance of three different types of pallets such as Re-load, plastic and corrugated fibreboard pallets are evaluated in this project. LCA tool is used to assess and compare their environmental performance in all phase of their life cycle but more focusing on end of life phase. This study gives more emphasis to waste treatment options such as incineration, landfilling and recycling. Three different end of life scenarios have been used in this study such as 100% incineration, 100% landfilling and 100% recycling. This study includes results of all the phases of all three types of pallets which are analysed in this report. More detailed results could be seen in excel sheets. Results of impact analysis tells that landfilling contributes to 14793 Kg CO2 of global warming potential in case of corrugated pallets. Incineration contributes to 12148.6 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Recycling contributes to 7136 Kg CO2 of global warming. Re-load pallets show the major contribution of global warming is from landfilling approx 813.2 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Recycling and incineration contribute to 438 Kg CO2 and 726.7 Kg CO2 of global warming potential respectively. In plastic case incineration contributes the most to global warming approximate 1183.8 Kg CO2 of global warming potential. Landfilling and recycling contribute almost the same approximate 932.6 Kg CO2 of global warming potential and 924.5 Kg CO2 of global warming potential respectively. Acidification impact show corrugated pallets cause high emissions when they are treat with landfilling and give negative values of incineration. In Eutriphication impact corrugated pallets are considered better in a sence they are inbetween 150 and 100 kg of PO-4. Re-load pallets give the least values when they are applied to different end of life scenarios. According to the results recycling could be replace other waste treatment options because of less impact through out the end of life. Secondly, Reload pallets represent a environmental friendly product which can be improved more after this study. Lack of LCI data is the major problem in this study because it is not easily accessible and it is very time consuming part of this study. Results might be different if more data is available. This study can be helpful for further study, for instance more replaceable scenarios will show different results for all three types of pallets. Moreover, it helps to compare more pallet types which are already in the market or propose to come in the market.
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Weston, Antonia-Jane Sarah. "Earthquake impact scenarios : a GIS-based case study for Colchester, UK." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.410077.
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Ashok, Akshay. "The air quality impact of aviation in future-year emissions scenarios." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/68168.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2011.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 104-112).
The rapid growth of aviation is critical to the world and US economy, and it faces several important challenges among which lie the environmental impacts of aviation on noise, climate and air quality. The first objective of this thesis addresses the requirements of section 753 of the US Energy Policy Act, and entails the quantification of present and future-year regional air quality impacts of US Landing and Take-Off (LTO) aviation emissions. In addition, this thesis characterizes the sensitivity of these impacts to variations in the projection of non-aviation anthropogenic emissions (referred to as background emissions). Finally, the implication of a future-year background emissions scenario on the current policy analysis tool, the response surface model (RSMv2), is discussed. Aviation emissions for 2006 are generated using the Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), while future-year aviation emissions are developed for 2020 and 2030 using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP/8) NOx Stringency scenario #6. Background emissions for the year 2005 and 2025 are generated from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) National Emissions Inventory (NEI), and two additional sensitivity scenarios are derived from the emissions forecasts. Uncertainties in present and forecast aviation and background emissions are also characterized. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model is evaluated to quantify its performance in predicting ambient PM2.5 and ozone concentrations, and it is used to estimate aviation air quality impacts of aviation. Future-year aviation particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are found to increase by a factor of 2 and 2.4 by 2020 and 2030, and are dominated by nitrate and ammonium PM. Aviation 8-hour daily maximum ozone is seen to grow by a factor of 1.9 and 2.2 by 2020 and 2030, with non-homogeneous spatial impacts. Aviation PM2.5 varies by +/-25% with a +/-50% variation of the forecast change in background emissions, while changes in ozone impacts are less symmetric at +34%/-21%. The RSMv2 is shown to under-predict future-year aviation nitrate and ammonium PM2.5. Finally, the implications of these results on the aviation industry and on aviation policy are discussed.
by Akshay Ashok.
S.M.
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Bergström, Sofia. "The Impact of Antennas on Radiolink Performance in Frequency Hopping Scenarios." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Signaler och System, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-371812.
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This paper investigates how the communication performance of frequency hopping systems are affected by the antenna parameters. The data are generated from Antenna Toolbox in Matlab for the case of two dipole antennas is free space. Non-orthogonal and orthogonal frequency hopping are used and the statistical impact from the antenna on the SINR is investigated. The results can be used to see the wave propagation margin and also see the effects of out-of-bands emissions in frequency hopping systems. The numerical generated model is compared to two isotropic antenna models and it shows that the isotropic models are relatively good despite its simplicity in this case. It does however not capture the spread caused by the directivity. Another model is created which mimic the numerical generated statistical distribution. This model uses the theoretical probability of a collision for both orthogonal and non-orthogonal frequency hopping. The model also uses mean values of directivity, s-parameters and the spread of the gain to calculate a statistical antenna model. This model is better than the isotropic for the tested cases and shows that it is possible to generate a statistical model.
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Mayberry, Timothy A. "Analysis and modeling of relative brain motion for various head impact scenarios." Connect to resource, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1811/32066.
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Arikoglu, Serap. "The impact of scenarios and personas on requirement elicitation : an experimental study." Phd thesis, Université de Grenoble, 2011. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00625785.
Full textAbstract:
La problématique centrale de la thèse est l'évaluation de l'impact de démarches utilisant la formulation de scénarios et de personnages sur les phases d'expression des besoins en conception innovante. La méthodologie de recherche mise en œuvre est une démarche empirique qui s'appuie sur l'analyse de situations de conception. Au cours du doctorat, un protocole expérimental mis en œuvre a été dupliqué trois fois dans des laboratoires partenaires. Cette recherche aboutit à un mémoire de thèse qui présente plusieurs contributions : La première contribution se situe autour de la méthodologie de recherche proposée. Le protocole d'étude empirique mis en place est original, il s'appuie sur l'état de l'art des réflexions de la communauté et sur ces démarches de recherche, et proposes des éléments nouveaux à cette réflexion en conciliant approches quantitatives et qualitatives. La seconde contribution porte sur la caractérisation de l'impact des méthodologies étudiées sur la construction d'une représentation partagée du problème de conception et de la formalisation des exigences de conception. Enfin la troisième contribution porte sur l'analyse des interactions dans les activités de conception étudiées. Les analyses identifient et qualifient les impacts des méthodes étudiées sur le contenu des interactions dans les phases amont de la conception.
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Calado, Zettergren Carl Alexander. "Watching Scenarios Of Undue Influence : Impact On Emotional Reaction Depends On Viewing Technology." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-300445.
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The Swedish police authority is currently undertaking projects to strengthen the safety of the working environment for police employees. An issue identified in audits related to these projects is that police employees are facing what is called undue influence: events that affect on an emotional level and can induce a social-anxiety-like mindset of self-censorship. This project explores the use of 360-degree video as material for preparing for undue influence and for facilitating discussion about definitions of undue influence among police employees and across regional departments. This involves production of 360-degree video-material and a comparative study. The video-production is an example of both how a scenario of undue influence can be portrayed, and of what resources are needed to capture such a scenario. The study explored differing effects on feelings of presence and emotional reactions towards the scenario depending on the viewing technology. The compared viewing technologies were flat-screen monitors and a head mounted display. Results indicate that viewing with the head mounted display prompted stronger reactions on some emotion-subscales and on self-location related feelings of presence.Den svenska Polismyndigheten genomför för närvarande projekt för att stärka säkerheten i arbetsmiljön för polisanställda. En fråga som identifierats i interna granskningar relaterade till dessa projekt är att polisanställda möter det som kallas otillbörlig påverkan: händelser som påverkar på en emotionell nivå och kan framkalla det social ångest-liknande fenomenet självcensur. Detta projekt utforskar användningen av 360-graders video som material för att förbereda sig för otillbörlig påverkan och för att underlätta diskussioner om definitioner av otillbörlig påverkan bland polisanställda och mellan polisregioner. Detta innefattar framställning av 360-graders videomaterial och utförande av en jämförande studie. Videoproduktionen är ett exempel på både hur ett scenario av otillbörlig påverkan kan porträtteras och vilka resurser som behövs för att skapa ett sådant scenario. Studien undersökte olika effekter på känslor av närvaro samt känslomässiga reaktioner gentemot scenariot beroende på visningstekniken. De jämförda visningsteknikerna var platta skärmar och en “head-mounted display”. Resultaten indikerar att visning med “head-mounted display” producerade starkare reaktioner på vissa av de uppmätta känsloskalorna och platsillusions-relaterade känslor av närvaro.
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Surendrababu, Jayashree. "Modeling the Impact of Projected Land Cover on Lyme Disease Emergence." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/64242.
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Lyme disease is a common tick borne disease in the US. Lyme disease emerged from the Northeast and in the past decade, Virginia has been witnessing a rapidly increasing trend in incidence. This thesis uses land cover projection data as a basis to look at the potential future trend of Lyme disease incidence in Virginia for the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change) scenarios of A1B and A2, which indicate a global and regional focus respectively. This study is a continuation of previous work done by an NSF funded research team at Virginia Tech, in exploring the variables affecting Lyme disease in Virginia.
A Poisson point process is implemented in this thesis with land cover parameters (implemented land, water bodies, and edge metrics) and demographic parameters (population percentage and per capita income) as the spatial covariates. Lyme disease incidence data obtained from the Virginia Department of Health was used for model validation. The overall model was implemented using Python and its associated libraries while ArcGIS software was used for preliminary covariate analysis and data visualization.
This thesis generates risk maps for A1B and A2 scenarios for each decade from 2010 through 2060. Spatial occurrence of disease incidence has been generated by the Poisson point process and the risk level of each county in Virginia has been calculated based on the incidence count predicted for it. Population and area at risk under each scenario for each decade was calculated. Results show that in A1B scenario 22.1% and 42.9% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk and in the A2 scenario, 21% and 33% of the total population of Virginia are under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 and 2060 respectively. In terms of the area, A1B scenario has 28% under high risk in 2010 and 66% of the total area under high risk in 2060, while A2 scenarGIS, Lyme disease, Land cover projections, IPCC scenariosio has 22.4% under high risk of Lyme disease in 2010 62.7% of the total area in Virginia is under high risk in 2060.Master of Science
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Bauer, Francisca, Christoph Bremberger, and Margarethe Rammerstorfer. "The Impact of Different Unbundling Scenarios on Concentration and Wholesale Prices in Energy Markets." Forschungsinstitut für Regulierungsökonomie, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2010. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3069/1/wp12.pdf.
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A recent highly disputed subject of regulating energy markets in Europe is the unbundling of
vertically integrated down- and upstream firms. While legal unbundling is already implemented in
most countries and indisputable in its necessity for approaching regulatory aims, continuative models
as ownership unbundling or the alternative of an independent system operator are still ambiguous.
Hence, this article contributes to the economic analyses of identifying the differences of separate
types of unbundling. Via simulation, we find that legal unbundling brings about the lowest prices in
a market under Cournot competition. Moreover, under Bertrand competition, no differences between
legal unbundling and ownership unbundling can be identified. (author's abstract)Series: Working Papers / Research Institute for Regulatory Economics
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Perveen, Sajida. "Modelling the transport impacts of urban growth scenarios: A perspective from South East Queensland, Australia." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/122902/1/Sajida_Perveen_Thesis.pdf.
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This research aimed to evaluate alternative urban growth scenarios by using representative transport impact indicators at different spatial and temporal scale. The assessment of key indicators at multi-scale level helped for ranking the alternative scenarios in terms of their suitability for promoting sustainable urban growth with least environmental externalities. In addition to the key transport impact indicators and alternative scenario of the future urban growth as major contributions to knowledge, this research provides an empirical approach to inform and assist decision-makers, practitioners and stakeholders in applying the meta-narrative of sustainable development at regional, city and local level.
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Joshi, Aditya Umakant Lankarani Hamid M. "Finite element modeling of low floor mass transit bus and analysis of frontal impact scenarios." Diss., A link to full text of this thesis in SOAR, 2006. http://soar.wichita.edu/dspace/handle/10057/653.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Wichita State University, College of Engineering, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering."December 2006." Title from PDF title page (viewed on Sept. 24, 2007). Thesis adviser: Hamid M. Lankarani. Includes bibliographic references (leaves 96-97).
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Scharnhorst, Leandra. "Impact of Extreme Scenarios on the European Industry in 2050 : Model Expansion and Computation of a High Efficiency Scenario for Germany and its Electrical Neighbors." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Elektricitetslära, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-391983.
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Decarbonizing the European industry sector is a prerequisite for reaching the ‘well below’ 2 °C climate target adopted in the Paris agreement. The objective of this master thesis is to model a European energy efficiency scenario (2020 – 2050), using the Sector Model of the Industry (SmInd). This reference scenario builds the basis for comparison with extreme scenarios. Additionally, an extreme electrification scenario is assessed qualitatively for its prospective implementation into the model. SmInd Europe is obtained by adapting and expanding a German version of SmInd. The model is based on sub sector specific input data such as energy consumption and load profiles, as well as energy carrier specific data considering emission factors and energy carrier prices. The input data requires different assumptions, to account for 13 energy carriers, 11 applications, 22 processes, 13 sub sectors and 15 countries. Computing the country specific industry structure and the reference scenario reveals an overall reduction in energy consumption, as well as a reduction in CO2 emissions of e.g. 44 %, 22 % and 20 % in Germany, France and Sweden, respectively. Benchmarking the reference scenario with other country specific studies shows that the assumptions taken are a reasonable first approach for modelling an ambitious energy efficiency scenario in the European industry sector. The assessment of the heterogeneous industry structure reveals that the implementation of extreme scenarios needs a country specific approach, to account for a varying degree of decarbonization progress in the different sub sectors and countries.
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Celis, Chris. "A fossil-free Sweden in 2050, and the impact on Swedish emissions : A consumption-based scenarios approach." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekoteknik- och hållbart byggande, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-39213.
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Sweden has the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions without increasing emissions abroad. This study uses consumption-based emissions data from the PRINCE-project to show where emissions from Swedish consumption take place and how large the share of fossil fuel emissions is. Scenarios are made to compare the emission reductions from reducing the use of fossil fuels to the potential for emission reductions by changes in consumption patterns for three main consumption groups, food, buildings & construction, and transport. These three consumption groups represent 67 % of the Swedish consumption-based emissions. The results show that Sweden has limited though still significant impact on consumption-based emissions since most emissions take place outside Sweden. For the three main consumption groups, it is shown that changing consumption patterns has the same potential for reducing the emissions than completely ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden. Large differences exist between the consumption groups. Ending the use of fossil fuels in Sweden would reduce emissions from food by 21 %, from buildings & construction by 50 % and from transport by 27 %. It can be concluded that if Sweden wants to lower their emissions from consumption, it is important to take measures at both national and international level. Focusing on both reducing fossil fuel use as well as changes in consumption patterns prove to be equally important and should be taken simultaneously to achieve the largest and fastest emissions reductions.2020-06-13
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Raisch, Dennis William. "Impact of case scenarios in an educational program to change drug prescribing in a health maintenance organization." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184600.
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This dissertation evaluated the provision of two different one-to-one educational interventions, randomly assigned, to two separate groups of medical practitioners at a health maintenance organization (HMO), Cigna Healthplan of Tucson, Arizona. A control group received no intervention. Each group consisted of seven physicians and one nurse practitioner. The intervention was aimed at improving the prescribing of the anti-ulcer drugs, cimetidine, ranitidine, and sucralfate. The theoretical basis for the study involved the cognitive principle of vividness, which implies that more vivid information has greater effect on decisions. For this research, the vivid intervention included case scenarios, while the non-vivid intervention included statistical information of the results of a drug use review. Prescribing data, consisting of percentages and cost of inappropriate prescriptions, were collected for one month prior to and for two months after the intervention. Analysis of covariance was employed with the pre-intervention measures of prescribing as the covariate in each test and post-intervention measures as the dependent variables. No differences were found between the two interventions, but the control group was significantly different from the intervention groups. For the first post-intervention month, it was found that the interventions resulted in significantly lower percentages of prescriptions written inappropriately for indication, dose, or duration (P = 0.001). These percentages decreased by 36% for the intervention groups, while increasing by 14% for the control group. Costs of inappropriate prescribing per study prescription and per patient encounter were also significantly lower for the intervention groups than for the control group (P = 0.001 and P = 0.019, respectively). In the second post-intervention month, inappropriate prescribing increased slightly in the intervention groups and were no longer significantly different from the control group. The research demonstrated the effectiveness of a one-to-one educational intervention in improving drug prescribing at an HMO. The lack of differences between the two interventions may have been due to the overall effectiveness of the one-to-one educational discussion, the interpretation of the statistical information as prescribing feedback by the practitioners, or the inadequate presentation of vividness in the case scenarios.
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Thorbjörnsson, Anders. "Carbon Capture and Storage : Energy penalties and their impact on global coal consumption." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Naturresurser och hållbar utveckling, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-235442.
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Coal has been used as a fuel for electricity generation for centuries. Inexpensive electricity from coal has been a key component in building large industrial economies such as USA and China. But in recent decades the negative aspects of coal, mainly carbon dioxide emissions, has changed the view on the fuel. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a solution to be able to continue using coal as an energy source, while limiting carbon emissions. One of the drawbacks of CCS is the energy need associated with the capture process, the energy penalty. This study aims to gather and analyze the energy penalties for the most developed types of carbon capture technologies. It also aims to model how the implementation of CCS would affect the future coal consumption. The results show that the range of energy penalties for a given type of technology is wide. Despite obtaining the energy penalty with the same simulation software, the energy penalty for post- combustion with MEA can range between 10.7% and 39.1%. Comparing mean energy penalties show that pre-combustion capture is the most efficient capture method (18.4% ± 4.4%) followed by oxy- fuel (21.6% ± 5.5%) and post-combustion (24.7% ± 7.9%). Further on, CCS implementation scenarios were compared and used as a starting point for coal consumption calculations. Three pathways were constructed in order to investigate how different distributions of technologies would affect the amount of needed coal. The pathways describe a implementation with only the most efficient technology, the least efficient and a middle option. The results suggest that a large scale implementation of CCS on coal power plant will have a significant impact on the global coal consumption. Under certain assumptions it takes up to 35 % more coal to deliver the same amount electricity with CCS in comparison without CCS. It is also found that certain implementation scenarios will struggle to produce the amount of coal that is needed to power the plants. A sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the impact of assumptions made on for instance plant efficiencies. The analysis shows that optimistic assumptions on development in plant efficiency and deploying only the best technology, uses less coal than a development without CCS and with current plant efficiencies.
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Tidwell, Craig Leonard. "Testing the impact of training with simulated scenarios for information security awareness on virtual community of practice members." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2011. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/5058.
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Even though the null hypothesis, which stated that there would be no difference between the groups scores on the information security awareness tests, was not rejected, the groups that received the initial training with the simulated scenarios did perform slightly better from the pre-training test to the post-training test when compared with the control group that did not receive the initial training. More research is suggested to determine how information security awareness training with simulated scenarios and follow-up testing can be used to improve and sustain the security practices of members of virtual communities of practice. Specifically, additional research could include: comparing the effect of training with the simulated scenarios and with training that would not use the simulated security scenarios; the potential benefits of using adaptive and intelligent training to focus on the individual subjects' weaknesses and strengths; the length of the training with simulated scenarios events, the time between each training event, and the overall length of the training; the demographics of the groups used in the training, and how different user characteristics impact the efficacy of the training with simulated scenarios and testing; and lastly examining how increasing the fidelity of the simulated scenarios might impact the results of the follow-up tests.; Information security has become a major challenge for all private and public organizations. The protection of proprietary and secret data and the proper awareness of what is entailed in protecting this data are necessary in all organizations. This treatise examines how simulation and training would influence information security awareness over time in virtual communities of practice under a variety of security threats. The hypothesis of the study was that security-trained members of a virtual community of practice would respond significantly better to routine security processes and attempts to breach security or to violate the security policy of their organization or of their virtual community of practice. Deterrence theory was used as the grounded theory and integrated in the information security awareness training with simulated scenarios. The study provided training with simulated scenarios and then tested the users of a virtual community of practice over an approximately twelve-week period to see if the planned security awareness training with simulated security problem scenarios would be effective in improving their responses to the follow-up tests. The research subjects were divided into four groups, the experimental group and three control groups. The experimental group received all of the training and testing events throughout the twelve-week period. The three control groups received various portions of the training and testing. The data from all of the tests were analyzed using the Kruskal-Wallis ranked order test, and it was determined that there was no significant difference between the groups at the end of the data collection.ID: 029809175; System requirements: World Wide Web browser and PDF reader.; Mode of access: World Wide Web.; Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Central Florida, 2011.; Includes bibliographical references (p. 189-196).
Ph.D.
Doctorate
Engineering and Computer Science
Modeling and Simulation
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König, Hannes Jochen. "Operationalising sustainability impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries : a stakeholder-based approach with case studies in China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Tunisia." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2012. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2013/6367/.
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Growing populations, continued economic development, and limited natural resources are critical factors affecting sustainable development. These factors are particularly pertinent in developing countries in which large parts of the population live at a subsistence level and options for sustainable development are limited. Therefore, addressing sustainable land use strategies in such contexts requires that decision makers have access to evidence-based impact assessment tools that can help in policy design and implementation. Ex-ante impact assessment is an emerging field poised at the science-policy interface and is used to assess the potential impacts of policy while also exploring trade-offs between economic, social and environmental sustainability targets.
The objective of this study was to operationalise the impact assessment of land use scenarios in the context of developing countries that are characterised by limited data availability and quality. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was selected for this study because it allows for the integration of various sustainability dimensions, the handling of complexity, and the incorporation of local stakeholder perceptions. FoPIA, which was originally developed for the European context, was adapted to the conditions of developing countries, and its implementation was demonstrated in five selected case studies.
In each case study, different land use options were assessed, including (i) alternative spatial planning policies aimed at the controlled expansion of rural-urban development in the Yogyakarta region (Indonesia), (ii) the expansion of soil and water conservation measures in the Oum Zessar watershed (Tunisia), (iii) the use of land conversion and the afforestation of agricultural areas to reduce soil erosion in Guyuan district (China), (iv) agricultural intensification and the potential for organic agriculture in Bijapur district (India), and (v) land division and privatisation in Narok district (Kenya).
The FoPIA method was effectively adapted by dividing the assessment into three conceptual steps: (i) scenario development; (ii) specification of the sustainability context; and (iii) scenario impact assessment. A new methodological approach was developed for communicating alternative land use scenarios to local stakeholders and experts and for identifying recommendations for future land use strategies. Stakeholder and expert knowledge was used as the main sources of information for the impact assessment and was complemented by available quantitative data.
Based on the findings from the five case studies, FoPIA was found to be suitable for implementing the impact assessment at case study level while ensuring a high level of transparency. FoPIA supports the identification of causal relationships underlying regional land use problems, facilitates communication among stakeholders and illustrates the effects of alternative decision options with respect to all three dimensions of sustainable development. Overall, FoPIA is an appropriate tool for performing preliminary assessments but cannot replace a comprehensive quantitative impact assessment, and FoPIA should, whenever possible, be accompanied by evidence from monitoring data or analytical tools. When using FoPIA for a policy oriented impact assessment, it is recommended that the process should follow an integrated, complementary approach that combines quantitative models, scenario techniques, and participatory methods.Bevölkerungswachstum und wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Kombination mit begrenzt verfügbaren, natürlichen Ressourcen sind kritische Faktoren für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung. Diese Situation ist besonders in Entwicklungsländern anzutreffen, in denen große Teile der Bevölkerung am Existenzminimum leben und es oft wenig Spielraum für eine nachhaltige Entwicklung gibt. Entscheidungsträger fragen daher verstärkt wissenschafts-basierte Instrumente zur Vorab- (ex-ante) Folgenabschätzung (Impact assessment) für die Konzeption und Umsetzung nachhaltiger Strategien nach. So genannte ex-ante Methoden zielen hierbei auf die Beurteilung der zukünftigen Folgen von Szenarien (z.B. alternative Politikmaßnahmen) und Konflikte zwischen ökonomischen, sozialen und ökologischen Nachhaltigkeitszielen ab. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, die Folgenabschätzungen von Landnutzungsszenarien auf die nachhaltige Entwicklung in Entwicklungsländern zu ermöglichen. Eine besondere Schwierigkeit stellt dabei die oft mangelhafte Verfügbarkeit von Daten dar, die quantitative Analysen bzw. den Einsatz von computergestützten Modellen meist nur sehr begrenzt möglich macht. Um mit diesen Schwierigkeiten umzugehen, wurde die ursprünglich für die Europäische Union entwickelte ‚Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment‘ (FoPIA)-Methode an die Bedingungen in Entwicklungsländern angepasst und in fünf regionalen Fallstudien angewendet. Die analysierten Landnutzungsszenarien umfassten dabei (i) alternative Raumplanungsmaßnahmen zur kontrollierten Stadt-Land-Entwicklung in Yogyakarta, Indonesien; (ii) die Umsetzung von boden- und wasserkonservierenden Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktion im Oum Zessar Wassereinzugsgebiet, Tunesien; (iii) Landumwandlung und Aufforstungsmaßnahmen zur Eindämmung von Bodenerosion in Guyuan, China; (iv) landwirtschaftliche Intensivierung und Potenziale des ökologischen Landbaus in Bijapur, Indien; sowie (v) Landteilung und -privatisierung in Narok, Kenia. Die angepasste FoPIA Methode wurde in drei konzeptionelle Schritte unterteilt: (i) die Szenarienentwicklung, (ii) die Spezifikation des Nachhaltigkeitskontexts, und (iii) die Szenariofolgenabschätzung. Ein neuer methodischer Ansatz lag in der Entwicklung alternativer Landnutzungsszenarien mit regionalen Akteuren und auf der Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen für zukünftige Landnutzungsstrategien. Für die Szenario-folgenabschätzung wurde primär das Wissen regionaler Experten und Akteure genutzt und durch quantitative Daten, sofern verfügbar, ergänzt. Auf der Grundlage der in den fünf Regionen gewonnenen Erkenntnisse lässt sich schlussfolgern, dass die angepasste FoPIA Methode dazu geeignet ist, eine Szenariofolgenabschätzung zu strukturieren und ein hohes Maß an Transparenz zu gewährleisten. Sie ermöglicht kausale Zusammenhänge von Landnutzungsproblemen zu diagnostizieren, die Kommunikation zwischen unterschiedlichen Akteuren und Experten zu verbessern sowie mögliche Konflikte zwischen ökonomischen, sozialen und ökologischen Nachhaltigkeitszielen zu erkennen und darzustellen. Insgesamt sollte die FoPIA Methode jedoch nicht als isolierte Methode zur Folgenabschätzung verstanden werden, sondern, sofern die Datenverfügbarkeit dies zulässt, durch weiterführende Analysen ergänzt werden. Für die Anwendung der FoPIA Methode im Rahmen der Politikfolgenabschätzung wird ein integrierter, komplementärer Ansatz empfohlen, der quantitative Modelle, Szenariotechniken und partizipative Methoden kombiniert.
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Karlsson, Malin, and Linnea Sund. "Life cycle assessments of arable land use options and protein feeds : A comparative study investigating the climate impact from different scenarios in the agricultural sector." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Industriell miljöteknik, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-129462.
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The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the climate impact from different arable land use options and protein feeds aimed for cattle. This has been made by executing two life cycle assessments (LCAs). The first LCA aimed to compare the following three arable land use options: Cultivation of wheat used for production of bioethanol, carbon dioxide and DDGS Cultivation of rapeseed used for production of RME, rapeseed meal and glycerine Fallow in the form of long-term grassland The second LCA aimed to compare the three protein feeds DDGS, rapeseed meal and soybean meal. In the LCA of arable land, the functional unit 1 ha arable land during one year was used and the LCA had a cradle-to-grave perspective. The LCA of protein feeds had the functional unit 100 kg digestible crude protein and had a cradle-to-gate perspective, hence the use and disposal phases of the feeds were excluded. Bioethanol, DDGS and carbon dioxide produced at Lantmännen Agroetanol, Norrköping, were investigated in this study. The production of RME, rapeseed meal and glycerine were considered to occur at a large-scale plant in Östergötland, but no site-specific data was used. Instead, general data of Swedish production was used in the assessment. The wheat and rapeseed cultivations were considered to take place at the same Swedish field as the fallow takes place. The protein feed DDGS was produced at Lantmännen Agroetanol and the rapeseed meal was assumed to be produced at a general large-scale plant in Sweden. In the soybean meal scenario, a general case for the Brazilian state Mato Grosso was assumed and no specific production site was investigated. Data required for the LCAs was retrieved from literature, the LCI database Ecoinvent and from Lantmännen Agroetanol. In the LCA of arable land use options, system expansion was used on all products produced to be able to compare the wheat and rapeseed scenarios with the fallow scenario. In the LCA of protein feeds, system expansion was used on co-products. The products in the arable land use options and the co-products in the protein feed scenarios are considered to replace the production and use of products on the market with the same function. The result shows that the best arable land use option from a climate change perspective is to cultivate wheat and produce bioethanol, carbon dioxide and DDGS. This is since wheat cultivation has a higher yield per hectare compared to rapeseed and therefore a bigger amount of fossil products and feed ingredients can be substituted. To have the arable land in fallow is the worst option from a climate change perspective, since no products are produced that can substitute alternative products. Furthermore, the result shows that DDGS and rapeseed meal are to prefer before soybean meal from a climate change perspective, since soybean meal has a higher climate impact than DDGS and rapeseed meal. This can be explained by the smaller share of co-products produced in the soybean meal scenario compared to the DDGS and rapeseed meal scenarios. Since the production and use of co-products leads to avoided greenhouse gas emissions (since they substitute alternatives), the amount of co-products being produced is an important factor. A sensitivity analysis was also executed testing different system boundaries and variables critical for the result in both LCAs. The conclusion of this study is that arable land should be used to cultivate wheat in order to reduce the total climate impact from arable land. Furthermore, it is favorable for the climate if DDGS or rapeseed meal are used as protein feeds instead of imported soybean meal.
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Aguib, Yasmine [Verfasser], Arne Akademischer Betreuer] Skerra, Dieter [Akademischer Betreuer] [Langosch, and Hermann [Akademischer Betreuer] Schätzl. "Pharmacological and genetic manipulation of autophagy and its impact on diverse prion infection scenarios / Yasmine Aguib. Gutachter: Dieter Langosch ; Hermann Schätzl. Betreuer: Arne Skerra." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2012. http://d-nb.info/1023350742/34.
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Thieu, Vincent. "Modélisation spatialisée des flux de nutriments (N, P, Si) des bassins de la Seine, de la Somme et de l’Escaut : impact sur l’eutrophisation de la Manche et de la Mer du Nord." Paris 6, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PA066695.
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Les apports fluviaux en éléments nutritifs comme l’azote (N) le phosphore (P) et la Silice (Si) sont indispensables au fonctionnement des écosystèmes côtiers et en conditionnent la productivité. Cependant, l’intensité et le déséquilibre des flux de nutriments peuvent conduire à l’eutrophisation de ces zones de transition marines. En Manche – Mer du Nord cet enrichissement excessif se caractérise par des blooms phytoplanctoniques qui apparaissent sous l’influence des apports de la Seine, de la Somme et de l’Escaut. Ces trois hydrosystèmes, qui diffèrent largement par leur morphologie, leurs débits mais également les pressions anthropiques qui s’y exercent, offrent un cas d’étude exemplaire pour analyser les flux d’éléments nutritifs dans les bassins versants et leurs impacts à la zone côtière. L’objectif de cette thèse a été d’implémenter, pour ce continuum aquatique drainant plus de 100 000 km2 de surface continentale, une modélisation déterministe du fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes, s’attachant à décrire l’ensemble des processus microscopiques impliqués dans le transport, la rétention et la transformation des éléments N, P et Si. Validé sur la période récente (1996-2001), le modèle Sénèque-Riverstrahler a permis un calcul détaillé des transferts de nutriments, nécessaire pour quantifier le déséquilibre des flux d’azote et de phosphore exportés à la zone côtière franco-belge, par rapport à la silice. Différents scenarios, incluant des mesures de gestion concrètes, du type de celles préconisées par la directive Cadre Européenne sur l’eau (DCE), mais également des prospectives plus théoriques sur long terme, ont été élaborées et simulées. L’évaluation de ces scénarios porte sur la possibilité de rééquilibrer les apports fluviaux, en se basant sur les rapports de Redfield, de limiter la contamination azotée et phosphatée dans les réseaux hydrographiques et de réduire l’ouverture des cycles biogéochimiques qui a prévalu depuis plus de 30 ans. Dans le cadre d’une approche intégrée ‘rivière – zone côtière’, ces résultats ont été couplés avec un modèle du fonctionnement des écosystèmes marins côtiers, permettant ainsi de traduire l’impact des mesures implémentées à l’échelle des bassins versants, en terme de développement algal atteint dans la zone côtière.
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Papamarkos, Periandros. "Measuring Complexity of Built Environments : The impact of traffic lights and load of traffic levels on how drivers perceive stress." Thesis, KTH, Skolan för elektroteknik och datavetenskap (EECS), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-287369.
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To understand which factors affect the perception of stress while driving is interesting since it would help us to get closer to comprehending how the street network design can avoid putting stress on the drivers. Earlier research has measured drivers’ perception of safety under different street conditions by using video clips of real street environments. This study, that is carried out in cooperation with ITRL and it forms part of the MERGEN project, aims to introduce HCI techniques in order to prove that these techniques can bring valuable and credible results when substituting the conventional means of carrying out experiments. The study focuses on how the level of car traffic and the presence or not of traffic signs and lights affect how the drivers’ perceive stress emotion. To extract relevant information, a perceptual experiment was conducted in which 29 subjects were exposed to stimuli that represented four different virtual street scenarios. Each scenario comprised a unique case that combined the two factors under examination. In order to measure the levels of the perceived stress, the subjects of the experiment were asked to answer questions on how they perceive the following four aspects: confidence, comfort, route information and manageability of traffic load. It was concluded that the presence of traffic signs and automated traffic lights has a big impact on every aspect that was examined since a significant difference on the responses given was measured. It was also concluded that the level of car traffic does not play a very significant role when it alters in street scenarios where traffic signs and traffic lights are present. Nevertheless, the level of car traffic becomes a factor on how drivers perceive stress when the street scenario does not include presence of traffic signs and lights. The use of HCI techniques with the goal to extract information on how drivers perceive emotions managed to give back descriptive results, something that can enhance the use of this kind of methods in the evaluation of not only street network designs but any Built Environment design in general. The study is conducted using virtual scenarios but is meant to help better understand emotions in real situations.Att förstå vilka faktorer som påverkar uppfattningen av stress under körning är intressant eftersom det skulle hjälpa oss att begripa hur gatunätets design kan undvika att sätta stress på förarna. Tidigare forskning har mätt förarnas uppfattning om säkerhet under olika gatuförhållanden genom att använda videoklipp från verkliga gatumiljöer. Denna studie, som genomförs i samarbete med ITRL och ingår i MERGEN-projektet, syftar till att införa HCI-tekniker för att bevisa att dessa tekniker kan ge värdefulla och trovärdiga resultat när de ersätter konventionella metoder för att genomföra experiment. Studien fokuserar på hur nivån på biltrafik och närvaro av trafikskyltar och ljus påverkar hur förarna uppfattar stresskänslor. För att extrahera relevant information genomfördes ett perceptuellt experiment där 29 personer utsattes för stimuli som representerade fyra olika virtuella gatuscenarier. Varje scenario bestod av ett unikt fall som kombinerade de två faktorer som undersöktes. För att mäta nivåerna av den upplevda stressen ombads försökspersonerna att svara på frågor om hur de uppfattar de följande fyra aspekterna: förtroende, komfort, ruttinformation och hanterbarhet av trafikbelastningen. Man drog slutsatsen att närvaron av trafikskyltar och automatiserade trafikljus har stor inverkan på varje aspekt som undersöktes eftersom en signifikant skillnad i de givna svaren uppmättes. Man drog också slutsatsen att biltrafiknivån inte spelar en så viktig roll när den förändras i gatuscenarier där trafikskyltar och trafikljus finns. Ändå blir biltrafiknivån en faktor för hur förare upplever stress när gatuscenariot inte inkluderar närvaron av trafikskyltar och ljus. Användningen av HCI-tekniker i syfte att extrahera information om hur förare uppfattar känslor lyckades ge tillbaka beskrivande resultat, något som kan förbättra användningen av denna typ av metoder vid utvärderingen av inte bara gatunätdesign utan alla byggnadsmiljöer generellt. Studien genomförs med virtuella scenarier men är tänkt att hjälpa till att bättre förstå känslor i verkliga situationer.
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Bregaglio, S. U. M. "DEFINITION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF PLANT DISEASE SIMULATION MODELS IN INTERACTION WITH CROP MODELS, AIMING AT FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS ON CROP PRODUCTION." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Milano, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2434/170256.
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The impacts of a changing climate on the social and economic development of humanity have been increasingly studied in the last decades. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the lack of implementation of effective and adequate measures for contrasting green house gases emissions will lead to increasingly severe and partially irreversible impacts on the environment, and consequently on the society. The estimate of possible impacts on food production, starting from agriculture, is essential to develop strategies to alleviate the consequences of climate change. In this context, the evaluation of the future dynamics of plant diseases plays a key role because they determine actual production levels for many crops in many areas, therefore deeply influencing food availability and security. In order to perform such analyses, process-based simulation modelling offers the capability to capture the high non-linearity characterizing the responses of biophysical processes to boundary conditions. However, such models have been marginally used to estimate scenarios of plant diseases impact on crop production, because of the limited availability of modelling approaches and tools. This work constitutes an attempt to respond to the need of developing a software framework for the simulation of a generic fungal plant airborne disease which can be easiliy coupled with a crop simulator in order to improve the estimation of the levels of crop productions under climate change scenarios.
The first section of the work deals with the evaluation of models for the estimation of meteorological data and for the simulation of leaf wetness, driving variable of the infection process of fungal plant pathogens. These assessments were justified by the need of feeding the disease models with high quality data, and by the scarce availability of hourly data in large area databases.
The second section presents the implementation and the calibration of the generic fungal plant epidemic framework, and its test via an extensive use of sensitivity analysis techniques.
The third section deals with the application of the developed modelling solutions, coupled with crop simulators, for the forecasting of the impact of climate change on crop production in Latin America.
In the last section, new criteria and metrics for biophysical model evaluation and analysis are presented, aimed at considering the models performance under heterogeneous climatic conditions such as those explored in climate change and large area application studies.
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Barreiro, Susana Miguel. "Development of forest simulation tools for assessing the impact of different management strategies and climatic changes on wood production and carbon sequestration for Eucalyptus in Portugal." Doctoral thesis, ISA/UTL, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/5216.
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Doutoramento em Engenharia Florestal e dos Recursos Florestais - Instituto Superior de AgronomiaThe present work had as main objective developing tools capable of simulating the evolution of Eucalyptus globulus forests in Portugal taking into account disturbance factors, such as market demands, hazards occurrence, land use changes, forest management and/or climate changes. Some conceptual work was done concerning the definition of different forest management alternatives while at the same time the E. globulus current management was described. SIMPLOT, a regional simulator based on national forest inventory plots was developed and validated. This simulation tool, mainly driven by wood and biomass demands, takes into account the occurrence of hazards, land use changes and the changes between different forest management alternatives allowing accessing its long-term impacts, namely on wood production and carbon sequestration. Some of the empirical growth models available for this species in Portugal were integrated into this simulator. However, the need to forecast the growth of highly stocked stands managed for bioenergy lead to the development of a new model. In order to account for climate changes, a process-based model was required. Therefore, the applicability of 3PG process-based model at a regional scale was tested for planted and coppice stands. Two forest level simulators, 3PG-Out+ and GLOBULUS, were developed along this study.
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Alves, Marco Aurélio de Araújo. "Low-carbon energy futures : the impact of the shipbuilding industry on marine renewables." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/13521.
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Mestrado em Gestão e Estratégia IndustrialO presente estudo consistiu em um projeto prospetivo que envolveu os principais "stakeholders" do setor das energias renováveis marinhas com o objetivo de explorar cenários preliminares focados na evolução desta indústria. Neste sentido, o estudo pretendeu melhorar o conhecimento geral sobre potenciais sinergias entre as energias renováveis marinhas e a indústria da construção naval, e destacar de forma holística e integrada os aspetos socioeconómicos, políticos, ambientais e tecnológicos. A análise centrou-se no contexto Europeu num horizonte temporal de 15 anos. Para esse fim, foi aplicada a análise morfológica, uma vez que é uma abordagem simples e sistemática para construção e exploração de possíveis futuros. Neste contexto, o software Morphol foi utilizado para obter o esqueleto dos cenários o que permitiu identificar 24 combinações plausíveis, ou cenários para possíveis futuros. Posteriormente, a partir deste conjunto de cenários, foram selecionados apenas 3 com base no método "extreme-world" que consiste em criar mundos extremos, colocando todas as incertezas positivas em um cenário e todas as negativas em outro cenário. Finalmente, obteve-se um cenário, denominado "blue-ocean", onde há uma simbiose perfeita entre as energias renováveis marinhas e a indústria de construção naval. O segundo cenário, denominado "different-worlds", é essencialmente o oposto do primeiro e baseia-se na crença de que o conservadorismo e tradicionalismo associados ao setor da construção naval impedem esta indústria de alargar as suas atividades a novos e mais inovadores campos. Por último, o terceiro cenário, denominado "business-as-usual", reúne algumas características dos dois cenários anteriores e, portanto, reflete uma realidade intermédia.
The present study is a prospective joint project with key stakeholders aiming at exploring draft scenarios focused on the renewable energy industry. In this framework, the goal of the study was to improve the general knowledge and understanding on potential synergies between marine renewables and the shipbuilding industry, in a holistic and integrative manner that highlights socio-economic, political, environmental and technological aspects. The analysis is focused on the European context, and is based on a time horizon of 15 years. To this end, the morphological analysis was applied since it is a fairly simple and systematic approach to build and explore possible futures. In this context, the Morphol software was used to obtain the skeleton of the scenarios. Eventually, 24 plausible combinations, or future possible scenarios, were found. Afterwards, from this set of scenarios, three were selected based on the extreme-world method, which consists of creating extreme worlds by putting all the positive uncertainties in one scenario and all the negative in another scenario. Finally, we end up with one scenario, named "blue-ocean", where there is a perfect symbiosis between marine renewables and the shipbuilding industry. Moreover, the second scenario, named "different-worlds", is essentially the opposite of the first one and relies on the belief that the conservatism and reluctance associated to the traditionalism of shipbuilding prevents the industry from extending its activities into new and more innovative fields. Eventually, the last scenario, named "business-as-usual", gathers some characteristics of the two previous scenarios and so it reflects an in-between reality.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Siswanto, Shantosa Yudha. "Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia)." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de València, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10251/153152.
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[EN] Climate change has occurred in Indonesia, for example, increasing the surface air temperature, including in the Upper Citarum watershed. This phenomenon leads to a lack of water in the dry season, which lowers agriculture production and remains a great obstacle for agricultural activity. Meanwhile, human activity has produced severe LULC changes within the Upper Citarum watershed. This occurs due to the demands of the ever-increasing population growth in the region. As a result, rice field and forested areas have been sacrificed to compensate the urban increment. The general objective of this dissertation is to understand and analyze the impact of climate and LULC changes on the hydrological process and their relationship with historical and future changes by using spatially distributed modeling on the Upper Citarum tropical catchment. The distributed model TETIS has been implemented to obtain the results of past and future scenarios on the water and sediment cycles. Annual historical bathymetries in the reservoir were used to calibrate and validate the sediment sub-model involving Miller's density evolution and trap efficiency of Brune's equation. Climate change has been considered under RCP 45 and RCP 85 trajectories. Meanwhile, to overcome the LULC problem, historical and future LULCs have been studied. LCM model was used to forecast the LULC in 2029. The forecasted results of LCM model show, on one hand, a continuation in the expansion of urban areas at the expense of the contiguous rice fields. The results determined that deforestation and urbanization were the most influential factors for the alteration of the hydrological and sedimentological processes in the Upper Citarum Catchment. Thus, it decreases evapotranspiration, increases water yield by increasing all its components; overland flow, interflow and baseflow. The changes in LULC are currently producing and will produce in the future, a relatively small increment of erosion rates, increasing the area exceeds Tsl erosion. Sediment yield will increase in 2029 as the result of erosion increment. Other LULC scenarios such as conservation, government plan and natural vegetation scenarios are expected to have an increment in total evapotranspiration, the water yield is expected to decrease. Flood regime, erosion and sedimentation are reduced dramatically. Hence, it leads to a massive increment of reservoir and hydropower lifetime signed by a very long period of the lifetime. Climate change alters the magnitude of water balance and can be identified from the shift of infiltration, overland flow, interflow, baseflow and water yield. Those increments finally change the flood regime, catchment erosion. RCP 85 trajectory gives a bigger impact compared to RCP 45 trajectory on hydrological and sediment cycle. . LULC change results a bigger impact on water balance, flood regime, erosion and sedimientation. The combination of climate and LULC change give a bigger impact on the flows of water balance, erosion, flood, sedimentation and will be catastrophic for the hydropower operation of the Saguling Dam.[ES] El cambio climático ha afectado a Indonesia, por ejemplo, incrementando la temperatura del aire en la superficie, incluso en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Este fenómeno conduce a la falta de agua en la estación seca, reduciendo la producción agrícola lo que es un gran obstáculo para su actividad. Además, la actividad humana ha producido cambios severos en LULC en la cuenca del Upper Citarum, Indonesia. Esto se debe al elevado crecimiento de la población en la región, por el que se han convertido campos de arroz y áreas boscosas en suelo urbano. De esta forma, el objetivo general de esta tesis es comprender y analizar el impacto de los cambios climáticos y LULC en el proceso hidrológico y su relación con los cambios históricos y futuros mediante el uso de modelos distribuidos espacialmente en la cuenca tropical del Upper Citarum. El modelo distribuido TETIS se ha implementado para obtener los resultados de escenarios pasados y futuros en los ciclos de agua y sedimentos. Se usaron batimetrías históricas anuales en el embalse para calibrar y validar el submodelo de sedimentos que involucra la evolución de la densidad de Miller y la eficiencia de retención de la ecuación de Brune. Con el fin de arrojar más luz sobre estos problemas, el escenario de cambio climático se ha implementado en base al modelo de cambio climático bajo las trayectorias RCP 45 y RCP 85. Además, para intentar resolver el problema LULC, también se ha implementado el LULC histórico y futuro. El modelo LCM se usó para pronosticar el LULC en 2029 y los resultados muestran, por un lado, una continuación en la expansión de las áreas urbanas a expensas de los arrozales contiguos. Los resultados determinaron que la deforestación y la urbanización fueron los factores más influyentes para la alteración de los procesos hidrológicos y sedimentológicos en la cuenca del Upper Citarum. Por lo tanto, disminuye la evapotranspiración, aumenta la producción de agua al aumentar todos sus componentes; escorrentía, interflujo y flujo base. Los cambios en LULC están produciendo y producirán, un incremento relativamente pequeño de las tasas de erosión, aumentando el área excede la erosión de Tsl. La producción de sedimentos aumentará en 2029 como resultado del incremento de la erosión. Se espera que otros escenarios de LULC como la conservación, el plan gubernamental y los escenarios de vegetación natural tengan un incremento en la evapotranspiración total, y se espera que la producción de agua disminuya. El régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación se reducen drásticamente. Por lo tanto, habrá un incremento de la vida útil del embalse y la energía hidroeléctrica. El cambio climático altera la magnitud del equilibrio hídrico y puede identificarse a partir del cambio de infiltración, escorrentía, interflujo, flujo base y producción de agua. Esos incrementos finalmente cambian el régimen de inundación y erosión de la cuenca. La trayectoria RCP 85 tiene un mayor impacto en comparación con la trayectoria RCP 45 en el ciclo hidrológico y de sedimentos. El cambio de LULC tiene un mayor impacto en el balance hídrico, el régimen de inundación, la erosión y la sedimentación. La combinación del cambio climático y LULC tiene un mayor impacto en los flujos de equilibrio hídrico, erosión, inundación, sedimentación y será catastrófico para la operación hidroeléctrica de la presa Saguling.
[CA] El canvi climàtic ha afectat Indonèsia, per exemple, incrementant la temperatura de l'aire en la superfície, inclús en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Aquest fenomen conduïx a la falta d'aigua en l'estació seca, reduint la producció agrícola, el que és un gran obstacle per a la seua activitat. A més, l'activitat humana ha produït canvis severs en LULC en la conca de l'Upper Citarum, Indonèsia. Açò es deu a l'elevat creixement de la població en la regió, motiu pel qual s'han anat convertint camps d'arròs i àrees boscoses en sòl urbà. D'aquesta manera, l'objectiu general d'aquesta tesi és comprendre i analitzar l'impacte dels canvis climàtics i LULC en el procés hidrològic i la seua relació amb els canvis històrics i futurs per mitjà de l'ús de models distribuïts espacialment en la conca tropical de l'Upper Citarum. El model distribuït TETIS s'ha implementat per a obtindre els resultats d'escenaris passats i futurs en els cicles de l'aigua i sediments. Es van usar batimetries històriques anuals en l'embassament per a calibrar i validar el submodel de sediments que involucra l'evolució de la densitat de Miller i l'eficiència de retenció de l'equació de Brune. Amb la finalitat de donar més llum a aquests problemes, l'escenari de canvi climàtic s'ha implementat basant-se en el model de canvi climàtic davall les trajectòries RCP 45 i RCP 85. A més, per a intentar resoldre el problema LULC, també s'ha implementat el LULC històric i futur. El model LCM es va usar per a pronosticar el LULC en 2029 i els resultats mostren, d'una banda, una continuació en l'expansió de les àrees urbanes a costa dels arrossars contigus. Els resultats van determinar que la desforestació i la urbanització van ser els factors més influents per a l'alteració dels processos hidrològics i sedimentològics en la conca de l'Upper Citarum. Per tant, disminuïx l'evapotranspiració, augmenta la producció d'aigua en augmentar tots els seus components; escorrentia, interflux i flux base. Els canvis en LULC estan produint i produiran, un increment relativament xicotet de les taxes d'erosió, augmentant l'àrea excedix l'erosió de Tsl. La producció de sediments augmentarà en 2029 com a resultat de l'increment de l'erosió. S'espera que altres escenaris de LULC com la conservació, el pla governamental i els escenaris de vegetació natural tinguen un increment en l'evapotranspiració total, i s'espera que la producció d'aigua disminuïsca. El règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació es reduïxen dràsticament. Per tant, hi haurà un increment de la vida útil de l'embassament i l'energia hidroelèctrica. El canvi climàtic altera la magnitud de l'equilibri hídric i pot identificar-se a partir del canvi d'infiltració, escorrentia, interflux, flux base i producció d'aigua. Eixos increments finalment canvien el règim d'inundació i erosió de la conca. La trajectòria RCP 85 té un major impacte en comparació amb la trajectòria RCP 45 en el cicle hidrològic i de sediments. El canvi de LULC té un major impacte en el balanç hídric, el règim d'inundació, l'erosió i la sedimentació. La combinació del canvi climàtic i LULC té un major impacte en els fluxos d'equilibri hídric, erosió, inundació, sedimentació i serà catastròfic per a l'operació hidroelèctrica de la presa Saguling.
thank the Directorate General of Higher Education of Indonesia (DIKTI), for granting me the opportunity to pursue PhD study and adventure in Europe. The authors are also thankful to the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the research projects TETISMED (CGL2014-58127-C3-3-R) and TETISCHANGE (RTI2018-093717-B-I00).
Siswanto, SY. (2020). Impact Evaluation of Future Climate and Land Use Scenarios on Water and Sediment Regime using Distributed Hydrological Modelling in a Tropical Rainforest Catchment in West Java (Indonesia) [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/153152
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Kost, Christoph Philipp [Verfasser], Dominik Akademischer Betreuer] Möst, and Edeltraud [Akademischer Betreuer] [Günther. "Renewable energy in North Africa : Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment / Christoph Philipp Kost. Gutachter: Dominik Möst ; Edeltraud Günther. Betreuer: Dominik Möst." Dresden : Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-176538.
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Kost, Christoph Philipp Verfasser], Dominik [Akademischer Betreuer] Möst, and Edeltraud [Akademischer Betreuer] [Günther. "Renewable energy in North Africa : Modeling of future electricity scenarios and the impact on manufacturing and employment / Christoph Philipp Kost. Gutachter: Dominik Möst ; Edeltraud Günther. Betreuer: Dominik Möst." Dresden : Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1076725376/34.
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Cresso, Matilda. "The Impact of Climate Changes On Hydrology and Water Resources In the Andean Páramos-Colombia." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-179849.
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Páramo ecosystems are unique alpine grasslands found at high altitudes (2000-5000 m a.s.l.) in the Andean mountain range. While they provide a wide range of important ecosystem services, such as organic carbon sinks, protect endemic species, provide agriculture services, act as recreation sites etc., their perhaps most important service is found in their ability to regulate water flows. The unique volcanic soil properties and endemic plant life that resides in these areas have an exceptional ability to capture, regulate and store water. Colombia has the world’s largest stretch of páramo areas, which supply almost the entire country with clean tap water without active filtration initiatives. Currently there are around seven million people living in Bogotá, the main capital. Northeast of the capital, in the Eastern Range of the Colombian Andes, the Chingaza National Park (CNP) is located. In this park, there are approximately 645 km² of páramo ecosystems, which supplies around 80 % of all the tap water used in Bogotá. However, with an expanding population growth and urbanisation, the demand for water is increasing rapidly. The long-lasting conflict within the country has prevented the exploitation of the economical goods belonging to the páramo ecosystems. Recent peace agreements have opened up for international trade, tourism and an expanding industry. However, the lack of regulations, which protect the páramo ecosystems, have now resulted in an increasing pressure of these systems. As such, sustainable adaptation plans are required across multiple stakeholder levels in order to prevent further deterioration of the páramos. Moreover, the anthropogenic climate changes are posing a threat to these fragile environments. An increasing temperature and changing rainfall patterns are expected to affect the hydroclimatic conditions, especially on high altitudes where these ecosystems are located. Nevertheless, the internal and external processes governing these ecosystems are highly complex and the knowledge gaps are many. One reason for this is that the remote and inaccessible locations results in generally scarcely distributed networks of monitoring stations. In this study, CNP was chosen due to the relatively well-monitored network of stations. Long-term temperature, precipitation and runoff data was analysed to identify the hydroclimatic conditions in the park. Regional downscaled precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, covering the period 2041-2065 were obtained from the WorldClim 1.4 database. Interpolated historical observations for the same parameters but during the period 1960-1990, covering CNP, were derived from the same database. These interpolated historical parameters were used for establishing upper and lower precipitation and temperature boundaries for where a páramo ecosystem can thrive during future RCP-scenarios. Historically, the hydroclimatic conditions in CNP has been characterised by a high input of water from precipitation, low evapotranspiration due to low temperatures and clouds presence, and a stable and abundant runoff. However, the results from this study suggest increasing temperature and precipitation boundaries during both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 compared to historical interpolated data. Furthermore, there is a tendency towards prolonged and amplified seasons, with wetter wet season and drier dry seasons. When mapping suitable páramo environments under future RCP-scenarios, there is a tendency towards decreasing suitable páramo areas, especially during dry season. However, the findings in this report are merely based on temperature and precipitation parameters. Other forcing factors (ENSO, cloud cover, fog, occult precipitation, land use etc.) that also influence these environments and the ability to adapt to new hydroclimatic conditions, were not investigated. In order to prevent further loss of these environments and their associated ecosystem services, it is recommended to apply modern techniques, such as remote sensing in combination with traditional fieldwork, point samples and hydrological models in future studies.
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Thieu, Vincent. "Modélisation spatialisée des flux de nutriments (N, P, Si) des bassins de la Seine, de la Somme et de l'Escaut : impact sur l'eutrophisation de la Manche et de la Mer du Nord." Phd thesis, Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris VI, 2009. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00446589.
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Les apports fluviaux en éléments nutritifs comme l'azote (N) le phosphore (P) et la Silice (Si) sont indispensables au fonctionnement des écosystèmes côtiers et en conditionnent la productivité. Cependant, l'intensité et le déséquilibre des flux de nutriments peuvent conduire à l'eutrophisation de ces zones de transition marines. En Manche – Mer du Nord cet enrichissement excessif se caractérise par des blooms phytoplanctoniques qui apparaissent sous l'influence des apports de la Seine, de la Somme et de l'Escaut. Ces trois hydrosystèmes, qui diffèrent largement par leur morphologie, leurs débits mais également les pressions anthropiques qui s'y exercent, offrent un cas d'étude exemplaire pour analyser les flux d'éléments nutritifs dans les bassins versants et leurs impacts à la zone côtière. L'objectif de cette thèse a été d'implémenter, pour ce continuum aquatique drainant plus de 100 000 km2 de surface continentale, une modélisation déterministe du fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes, s'attachant à décrire l'ensemble des processus microscopiques impliqués dans le transport, la rétention et la transformation des éléments N, P et Si. Validé sur la période récente (1996-2001), le modèle Sénèque-Riverstrahler a permis un calcul détaillé des transferts de nutriments, nécessaire pour quantifier le déséquilibre des flux d'azote et de phosphore exportés à la zone côtière franco-belge, par rapport à la silice. Différents scenarios, incluant des mesures de gestion concrètes, du type de celles préconisées par la directive Cadre Européenne sur l'eau (DCE), mais également des prospectives plus théoriques sur long terme, ont été élaborées et simulées. L'évaluation de ces scénarios porte sur la possibilité de rééquilibrer les apports fluviaux, en se basant sur les rapports de Redfield, de limiter la contamination azotée et phosphatée dans les réseaux hydrographiques et de réduire l'ouverture des cycles biogéochimiques qui a prévalu depuis plus de 30 ans. Dans le cadre d'une approche intégrée ‘rivière – zone côtière', ces résultats ont été couplés avec un modèle du fonctionnement des écosystèmes marins côtiers, permettant ainsi de traduire l'impact des mesures implémentées à l'échelle des bassins versants, en terme de développement algal atteint dans la zone côtière.
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König, Hannes Jochen Verfasser], and Hubert [Akademischer Betreuer] [Wiggering. "Operationalising sustainability impact assessment of land use scenarios in developing countries : a stakeholder-based approach with case studies in China, India, Indonesia, Kenya, and Tunisia [[Elektronische Ressource]] / Hannes Jochen König. Betreuer: Hubert Wiggering." Potsdam : Universitätsbibliothek der Universität Potsdam, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1030416338/34.
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Rydén, Calle. "Scenario Based Comparison Between Risk AssessmentSchemes." Thesis, Blekinge Tekniska Högskola, Institutionen för datavetenskap, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:bth-19722.
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Background. In the field of risk management, focusing on digital infrastructure, there is an uncertainty about which methods and algorithms are relevant and correct. Behind this uncertainty lies a need for testing and evaluation of different risk management analysis methods in order to determine how effective they are in relation to each other. Purpose. The purpose of this thesis is to manufacture a reproducible and universal method of comparison between risk management analysis methods. This is based on the need to compare two risk assessment analysis methods. One method relies solely on impact information and the other expands on that concept by also utilizing information about the network environment. Method. A network is modeled into a scenario. A risk assessment is conducted on the scenario by risk assessment experts which will be used as the correct solution. The tested risk management analysis methods are applied to the scenario and the results are compared with the expert risk assessment. The distance between the assessments are measured with Mean Square Error; A smaller distance between one assessment and the experts assessment indicates that it is more correct. Result. The result shows that it is possible to reproducibly compare risk management analysis methods by comparing the respective output with an established truth. The conducted comparison shows that a method that use network environment data is capable of producing a more correct assessment than one which simply uses impact data. Conclusion. A scenario based approach to compare risk management analysis methods for risk assessment has been proven effective.
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Saers, Pauline. "Future Impacts of Variable Renewable Power Production : An analysis of future scenarios effects on electricity supply and demand." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Fasta tillståndets fysik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-256790.
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Many scenarios try to describe a future of supply and demand for electricity in Sweden. All the studied scenarios contain an increased amount of variable renewable energy (VRE) power production. VRE power sources, such as solar and wind power, depend on weather conditions, like solar irradiance and wind speed. There are also scenarios predicting an increased amount of plug-in electrical vehicles (PEVs), which charge their batteries from the electricity grid and thereby changes the consumption patterns. In a future power system with less nuclear power and increased VRE power production it is of interest to investigate the scenarios impact on supply and demand. The scenarios were compiled into cases for the years 2030, 2050, and 2100. Simulations of each case VRE shares resulted in hourly power production data. Aggregating the data and comparing it with the consumption gives an understanding of the power and regulation need. For Case 2030, a VRE share of 10.3% was calculated. The hydropower in Sweden could cover the power need for the whole year and even peaks in demand. For the larger shares of Case 2050 and 2100, hydropower was not able to cover peaks in power demand solemnly. The consumption of PEVs was small for all cases, reaching shares of 1.5% to 7.1%, compared to the consumption of all other sectors. Considering short-term statistics for wind power and the latest news that some of Sweden’s nuclear reactors might shut down in advance, it is possible that Case 2030 might occur sooner than predicted. If larger shares of VRE power have to be produced to meet consumer needs in the near future, grid-stabilizing measures has to be investigated.
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Wijesinghe, Nadeera. "Rural Electrification - Sri Lanka: A Case study & Scenario Analysis." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Avdelningen för bygg- energi- och miljöteknik, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-17571.
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“Rural electrification” is a key element in the global energy development agenda. While being a developing country, Sri Lanka is enroot to achieve 100% of electrification at present. After the civil war ended in 2009 which lasted for more than 25 years, there has been much focus to fulfill the energy needs of the country. But the studies carried out to assess the impact of electrification are very much limited. This study focuses on meeting the gap of carrying out a scenario analysis of rural electrification and assessing the socio economic impact of electrification. The major focus has been given to see how energy system of a newly electrified village will vary over time. The research intends to identify how far the strategies used to implement a policy is realistic in the real world. Also the research extends to apply the proposed strategies to the energy model and analyze the behavior of the model. During the study a survey was carried out in a rural village in southern part of Sri Lanka and the data obtained were used to model the energy system of the village using a software called - LEAP (Long Range Energy Alternative Planning System). The energy system is simulated under different scenarios to analyze if certain strategies in the policy have been implemented in the village. Two scenarios were energy efficient lighting and energy efficient cooking stoves. A total energy balance has been carried out for the target sample with an analysis of global warming potential of the activities of the target family. The total energy consumption variation with the electrification and the percentage of energy consumed as electricity over time has been analyzed. Further the socio economic impacts of electrification have been studied. The impact of agricultural usage and economic productivity with electricity has been studied. The qualitative measures like attitude changes, modernization & technology adaptation were addressed to the extent possible.
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Neves, Salomé Menezes Lacerda. "Macroinvertebrate traits as biomonitoring tools in agricultural scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Aveiro, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10773/3876.
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Doutoramento em BiologiaOs ecossistemas de água doce – responsáveis por funções ambientais importantes e pelo fornecimento de bens e serviços insubstituíveis – têm vindo a ser severamente afectados por perturbações antropogénicas. A conversão de floresta em terreno agrícola afecta os sistemas aquáticos através de uma série de mecanismos: sedimentação; excesso de nutrientes; contaminação; alterações hidrológicas; e remoção de vegetação ripícola. As comunidades de macroinvertebrados de água doce – devido à sua diversidade, ubiquidade e sensibilidade às perturbações ambientais – revelam-se como particularmente adequadas para estudos de avaliação da integridade ecológica destes sistemas expostos simultaneamente a múltiplos factores de impacto. O uso sistemático de respostas biológicas para avaliação de mudanças ambientais – ou biomonitorização – pode ser levado a cabo através de diversas metodologias, que, de uma forma geral, não consideram aspectos funcionais das comunidades biológicas e têm aplicabilidade geograficamente restrita. A biomonitorização através de atributos biológicos (características que reflectem a adaptação das espécies ao seu meio ambiente) revela-se como uma ferramenta promissora na resolução dos problemas referidos, apresentando vantagens adicionais: relações causa-efeito directas; melhoria na diferenciação de impactos; e integração da variabilidade natural. O presente estudo apresenta uma revisão critica do estado-da-arte actual na área do uso de atributos biológicos em biomonitorização. Até à data de publicação, não estava disponível nenhum outro trabalho com a base conceptual do uso de atributos de macroinvertebrados enquanto descritores de comunidades e para efeitos de biomonitorização e gestão de sistemas de água doce. Descrevem-se as teorias ecológicas de suporte destas metodologias (conceitos de habitat-molde e de filtros paisagísticos) e os estudos que aplicaram estas teorias em cenários reais, tendo-se chamado a atenção para questões técnicas e possíveis soluções. As necessidades futuras nesta área englobam: o desenvolvimento de uma só ferramenta de biomonitorização de aplicação alargada; uma maior compreensão da variabilidade natural nas comunidades biológicas; diminuição dos efeitos de soluções de compromisso biológico e sindromas; realização de estudos autoecológicos adicionais; e detecção de impactos específicos em cenários de impacto complexos. Um dos objectivos deste estudo foi contribuir para a melhoria das técnicas de biomonitorização através de atributos, focalizando em comunidades de macroinvertebrados ribeirinhas em diferentes regiões biogeográficas (as bacias hidrográficas dos rios: Little e Salmon em New Brunswick, Canadá; Anllóns na Galiza, Espanha; Reventazón em Cartago, Costa Rica). Em cada região, foram estudados gradientes de uso agrícola de solo, incluindo desde bacias hidrográficas quase exclusivamente cobertas por floresta até bacias sob a influência maioritária de actividades agrícolas intensivas. Em cada gradiente de uso de solo, a caracterização da comunidade biológica (por amostragem de macroinvertebrados em troços de rápidos) foi acompanhada pela caracterização do habitat circundante (incluindo propriedades da bacia hidrográfica, análise química das águas e outras propriedades à escala local). A comunidade de macroinvertebrados foi caracterizada através de informação taxonómica, métricas estruturais, índices de diversidade, métricas de tolerância, índices bióticos e através da compilação de atributos biológicos e fisiológicos gerais, de história de vida e de resistência a perturbações. Análises estatísticas univariadas e multivariadas foram usadas para evidenciar os gradientes biológicos e físico-químicos, confirmar a sua co-variação, testar a significância da discriminação de níveis de impacto e estabelecer comparações inter-regionais. A estrutura de comunidades revelou os complexos gradientes de impacto, que por sua vez co-variaram significativamente com os gradientes de uso de solo. Os gradientes de impacto relacionaram-se sobretudo com entrada de nutrientes e sedimentação. Os gradientes biológicos definidos pelas medidas estruturais seleccionadas co-variaram com os gradientes de impacto estudados, muito embora apenas algumas variáveis estruturais tenham individualmente discriminado as categorias de uso de solo definidas a priori. Não foi detectada consistência nas respostas das medidas estruturais entre regiões biogeográficas, tendo-se confirmadado que as interpretações puramente taxonómicas de impactos são difíceis de extrapolar entre regiões. Os gradientes biológicos definidos através dos atributos seleccionados também co-variaram com os gradientes de perturbação, tendo sido possível obter uma melhor discriminação de categorias de uso de solo. Nas diferentes regiões, a discriminação de locais mais impactados foi feita com base num conjunto similar de atributos, que inclui tamanho, voltinismo, técnicas reproductivas, microhabitat, preferências de corrente e substrato, hábitos alimentares e formas de resistência. Este conjunto poderá vir a ser usado para avaliar de forma predictiva os efeitos das modificações severas de uso de solo impostas pela actividade agrícola. Quando analisadas simultaneamente através dos atributos, as comunidades das três regiões permitiram uma moderada mas significativa discriminação de níveis de impacto. Estas análises corroboram as evidências de que as mudanças nas comunidades de macroinvertebrados aquáticos em locais sob a influência de agricultura intensiva podem seguir uma trajectória convergente no espaço multidimensional, independentemente de factores geográficos. Foram fornecidas pistas para a identificação de parâmetros específicos que deverão ser tidos em conta no planeamento de novos programas de biomonitorização com comunidades de macroinvertebrados bentónicos, para aplicação numa gestão fluvial verdadeiramente ecológica, nestas e noutras regiões. Foram ainda sugeridas possíveis linhas futuras de investigação.
Freshwater ecosystems - engineers of environmental functions and important providers of irreplaceable goods and services - are being severely affected by anthropogenic perturbations. The conversion of forested land to agriculture is affecting these aquatic systems through a series of mechanisms: sedimentation; nutrient enrichment; contaminant input; hydrologic alteration; and riparian clearing. Freshwater macroinvertebrate communities, being diverse, widespread, and sensitive to environmental perturbation, are particularly interesting for the ecological integrity assessment of those aquatic systems affected by such a multitude of stressors. Biomonitoring - the systematic use of biological responses to evaluate environmental changes - can be undertaken through diverse methodologies. But these do not usually consider the functional intricacies of biological communities and are geographically constrained. Biomonitoring through sets of biological traits (characteristics that reflect species adaptation to their environment) appears as a promising tool to overcome these issues, offering a series of other advantages: direct causal relationships with stressors; better differentiation of impacts; and integration of natural fluctuations. In this study, the current state-of-the-art of the usage of biological traits in biomonitoring is presented in a critical review of the existing published literature. Until publication date, no such work was available to provide freshwater ecologists with the conceptual underpinning for the use of traits as community descriptors and for freshwater biomonitoring and management. The support from ecological theory (the habitat templet concept and the landscape filtering hypothesis) was reviewed and studies applying this knowledge under real scenarios were presented. Technical issues were addressed and solutions proposed. Specific future needs are: a broader unified trait biomonitoring tool; more accurate understanding of the natural variation of community patterns; approaches to deal with trait trade-offs and syndromes; additional life history and ecological requirement studies; and the detection of specific impacts under multiple stressor scenarios. The aim was to address the improvement of biomonitoring through traits, focusing on freshwater macroinvertebrate communities from streams of different biogeographic regions (in the Little and Salmon River, New Brunswick, Canada; Anllóns River, Galicia, Spain; Upper Reventazón River, Cartago, Costa Rica) spanning comparable gradients from low (watersheds with percentages of forest cover >75%) to high agricultural land use intensity. In each land use gradient, the characterization of the biological community (by macroinvertebrate kick sampling in riffle areas) was accompanied by the characterization of the surrounding habitat (watershed scale properties, water chemistry and other reach scale properties). The macroinvertebrate community was characterized through taxonomic information, structural metrics, diversity indices, tolerance metrics, biotic indices and through the attribution of traits reflecting general biological and physiological features, life history and resistance to disturbance. Univariate and multivariate statistical data analyses were used to highlight biological and physico-chemical gradients, confirm their co-variation, test the significance of impact level discrimination and establish interregional comparisons. Community structure was used to reveal complex impact gradients, that significantly covaried with watershed agricultural land use gradients. These 14 impact gradients were mostly related with nutrient input and sedimentation. The biological gradients defined by selected structural measures co-varied with the disturbance gradients, although few structural variables individually discriminated the a priori defined land use categories. No consistency in the responses of the structural measures across biogeographic regions was detected. It was therefore confirmed that pure taxonomic interpretations of potential impacts are difficult to extrapolate between regions. The biological gradients defined by the selected traits also co-varied with the disturbance gradients and an improved discrimination of land use categories was obtained. Across regions, a similar set of traits discriminated higher impact sites, including size, voltinism, reproductive techniques, microhabitat, current and substrate preferences, feeding habits and resistance forms. This set could be further studied and used to predictably assess the effects of severe land uses changes posed by agricultural scenarios. When analyzed simultaneously using traits, the communities of the three regions allowed a moderate but significant discrimination of impact levels. These analyses support the evidence that freshwater macroinvertebrate community shifts in sites impacted by intensive agriculture may follow convergent trajectories in multi-dimensional space, regardless of geography. Overall, clues were given to identify specific features that should be considered in the design of future freshwater biomonitoring programs using benthic macroinvertebrate communities for application in true ecologically oriented river management in these and other regions. Future research needs were also suggested.
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Fischer, Ricardo Balieiro. "Desenvolvendo o conceito de redes bayesianas na construção de cenários prospectivos." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/8020.
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Submitted by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2011-05-06T18:11:59Z
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A incerteza é o principal elemento do futuro. Desde os primórdios, o homem busca métodos para estruturar essas incertezas futuras e assim poder guiar suas ações. Apenas a partir da segunda metade do século XX, porém, quando os métodos projetivos e preditivos já não eram mais capazes de explicar o futuro em um ambiente mundial cada vez mais interligado e turbulento, é que nasceram os primeiros métodos estruturados de construção de cenários. Esses métodos prospectivos visam lançar a luz sobre o futuro não para projetar um futuro único e certo, mas para visualizar uma gama de futuros possíveis e coerentes. Esse trabalho tem como objetivo propor uma nova abordagem à construção de cenários, integrando o Método de Impactos Cruzados à Análise Morfológica, utilizando o conceito de Rede Bayesianas, de fonna a reduzir a complexidade da análise sem perda de robustez. Este trabalho fará uma breve introdução histórica dos estudos do futuro, abordará os conceitos e definições de cenários e apresentará os métodos mais utilizados. Como a abordagem proposta pretende-se racionalista, será dado foco no Método de Cenários de Michel Godet e suas ferramentas mais utilizadas. Em seguida, serão apresentados os conceitos de Teoria dos Grafos, Causalidade e Redes Bayesianas. A proposta é apresentada em três etapas: 1) construção da estrutura do modelo através da Análise Estrutural, propondo a redução de um modelo inicialmente cíclico para um modelo acíclico direto; 2) utilização da Matriz de Impactos Cruzados como ferramenta de alimentação, preparação e organização dos dados de probabilidades; 3) utilização da Rede Bayesiana resultante da primeira etapa como subespaço de análise de uma Matriz Morfológica. Por último, um teste empírico é realizado para comprovar a proposta de redução do modelo cíclico em um modelo acíclico.
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Posey, Ryan P. "Soccer headgear effects on impact profiles during a heading scenario." Connect to this title online, 2006. http://etd.lib.clemson.edu/documents/1171293578/.
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Mariyappan, Jason. "Adoption of distributed generation in the UK : drivers, constraints, scenarios and impacts." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.407595.
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Persson, Anna. "Food redistribution in Stockholm : A comparative analysis of two scenarios – with and without a food bank." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192328.
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Food waste is a serious problem in today’s society. Functional food waste is going to waste treatment while people are suffering from food insecurity. Food redistribution in form of a central food bank which collects food waste at food companies and delivers it to social organizations is a measure to deal with this issue. Stockholm City Mission plans to start up a central food bank in Stockholm and it is this implementation that is of focus in this report. The purpose of this study is to compare two scenarios, with and without a food bank, and evaluate this food bank regarding the possibilities for reduced climate impacts and the economic outcomes of the involving actors (food companies, the central food bank and social organizations). The methods used are literature studies, interviews and a material flow analysis to be able to follow the flows of food through the redistribution system. The results found are that costs can be saved for the actors involved and whether the food bank will go with profit depends on the revenues that can be collected from the involved actors and external investors. Climate impacts are reduced as a result of the implementation, mainly in terms of that functional food waste avoids waste treatment and can be of use.
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Breunig, Hanna Marie. "Parameter variation and scenario analysis in impact assessments of emerging energy technologies." Thesis, University of California, Berkeley, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3720392.
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There is a global need for energy technologies that reduce the adverse impacts of societal progress and that address today's challenges without creating tomorrow's problems. Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) can support technology developers in achieving these prerequisites of sustainability by providing a systems perspective. However, modeling the early-stage scale up and impacts of technology systems may lead to unreliable or incomplete results due to a lack of representative technical, spatial, and temporal data. The goal of this dissertation is to support the acceleration of clean energy technology development by providing information about the regional variation of impacts and benefits resulting from plausible deployment scenarios. Three emerging energy technologies are selected as case studies: (1) brine management for carbon dioxide sequestration; (2) carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and sequestration; (3) stationary fuel cells for combined heat and power in commercial buildings. In all three case studies, priority areas are identified where more reliable data and models are necessary for reducing uncertainty, and vital information is revealed on how impacts vary spatially and temporally. Importantly, moving away from default technology and waste management hierarchies as a source of data fosters goal-driven systems thinking which in turn leads to the discovery of technology improvement potentials.
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Tengteng, Sun. "Energy efficient buildings in Qingdao, China." Thesis, KTH, Industriell ekologi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-108293.
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At present, an important task for Chinese governments at all levels is to save energy and reduce pollutant emissions. The task of buildings energy efficiency accounts for 21% in the 12th Five Year Plan which from 2011 to 2015. With the development of social economy，the energy shortage is serious day by day．The energy-conservation of buildings is a high relevant issue in China．There are a large capacity and a wide range of existing buildings in Qingdao among which the overwhelming majority is the non-energy-efficient buildings and the operate energy consumption are enormous．At Present, according to the related statistic，the energy efficient building area only accounts for 3% to 5% of the total building area newly increased in our country every year, while in such existing buildings in Qingdao ，most of them are highly energy-consuming, the energy consumption in buildings is about 100-350 kWh for each floor area of the whole year，which is 2 to 3 times of the energy consumption of the same area of energy efficient buildings．So we can say that whether could we promote the effective use of resources and energy in buildings is very important，which will finally determine whether could we and take the road to sustainable development． In respect of the application of the complicated systematic scientific conclusions，the thesis carries out the analysis of geographic and climate characteristics in Qingdao area and the research of current energy consumption． Based on the quantitative model analysis of environmental and economic benefits of implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao in scenario k, promotion and implementation of energy efficient buildings can substantially reduce the current high environmental cost associated with energy consumption for heating and cooling in buildings in Qingdao. Emission including carbon dioxides, sulfur oxide, nitrogen oxides and ash can be reduced, it means that under the scenario k energy efficient buildings has an idea performance on reducing pollutant gas. At the same time, companied by the great environmental benefits, there are also substantial economic benefits. Barriers to energy efficiency in buildings in Qingdao, including political, economic, social and technological barriers are discussed in this thesis. According to the investigation and analysis about the present situation and factors affecting the implementation of energy efficient buildings in Qingdao, this thesis put forward recommendations from the aspects of environment, politics, economy, society and technology to improving energy efficient buildings in Qingdao.
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Weatherdon, Lauren Vanessa. "Scenarios for coastal First Nations' fisheries under climate change : impacts, resilience and adaptation potential." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/48599.
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Recent studies have demonstrated ways in which climate-related shifts in the distribution and relative abundance of marine species are expected to alter the dynamics and catch potential of global fisheries. While these studies focus on assessing impacts to commercial fisheries, few efforts have been made to quantitatively project impacts to small-scale fisheries that are economically, socially and culturally important to many coastal communities. This study uses a dynamic bioclimate envelope model to project scenarios of climate-related changes in the relative abundance, distribution and richness of 98 exploited marine fishes and invertebrates that are of commercial and cultural importance to First Nations in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Declines in relative abundance are projected for most of the sampled species (n = 84 to 95; x̅ = -15.0% to -20.8%) under both the lower and upper scenarios of climate change, with poleward range shifts occurring at a mean rate of 2.9 and 4.5 kilometres decade-1 for fishes and 2.7 to 3.4 kilometres decade-1 for invertebrates within BC’s exclusive economic zone. While cumulative declines in catch potential are projected to occur coastwide (-4.5 to -10.7%), estimates suggest a strong positive correlation between relative catch potential and latitude, with First Nations’ territories along the north and central coasts experiencing less severe declines than those to the south. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation is projected between latitude and the number of species exhibiting declining abundance. These trends are shown to be robust to alternative species distribution models, and highlight key management challenges that are likely to be encountered under climate change. Drawing from an interdisciplinary literature review of First Nations’ traditional fisheries management strategies and historical responses to changes in the availability of aquatic resources, a scenario-based framework is applied to explore climate-resilient pathways for First Nations’ fisheries given quantitative projections. Findings suggest that joint-management frameworks incorporating First Nations’ traditional ecological knowledge could aid in offsetting impacts and developing site-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies. This interdisciplinary framework thereby facilitates proactive discussions of potential mitigation and adaptation strategies deriving from local fishers’ knowledge that could be used to respond to a range of climate change scenarios.Science, Faculty of
Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for
Graduate
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Ramachandra, Pradeepa. "A Study on the Impact of Antenna Downtilt on theOutdoor Users in an Urban Environment." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Kommunikationssystem, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-80414.
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Inter-site interference distribution acts as a basic limitation on how much performance a network service provider can achieve in an urban network scenario. There are many different ways of controlling this interference levels. One such method is tuning the antenna downtilt depending on the network situation. Antenna downtilt can also be seen as a powerful tool for load balancing in the network. This thesis work involves a study of the impact of the antenna downtilt in an urban environment, involving non-uniform user distribution. A realistic dual ray propagation model is used to model the path gain from the base station to a UE. Such a propagation model is used along with a directional antenna radiation pattern model to calculate the overall path gain from the base station to a UE. Under such modeling, the results of the simulations show that the antenna downtilt plays a crucial role in optimizing the network performance. The results show that the optimal antenna downtilt angle is not very sensitive to the location of the hotspot in the network. The results also show that the antenna downtilt sensitivity is very much dependent on the network scenario. The coupling between the antenna downtilt and the elevation half power beamwidth is also evaluated.
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Strassmann, Kuno M. "Modeling anthropogenic impacts on the carbon cycle and climate : from land use to mitigation scenarios /." [S.l.] : [s.n.], 2008. http://www.zb.unibe.ch/download/eldiss/08strassmann_k.pdf.
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Schwantes, Ana Paula. "Agricultural resource efficiency and reduction of impacts under land-use and climate change scenarios in Brazil." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11136/tde-02102017-094321/.
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Cerrado is the second largest Brazilian biome and originally corresponded to 24% of the national territory, and since the 1970´s has been under agriculture and cattle activities. Soybean and maize are two of the most important grain-crops found in this region, with an estimated production of approximately 223 millions of tons in the Brazilian 2016/17 harvest. Changes in soil physical properties due to soil management affect productivity. Possible changes in climatic variables may also affect agricultural productivity, either per unit area (land productivity) or per unit of water volume (water productivity). One option for studying the relation between land and water productivity and how they are affected by soil hydraulic properties and climatic factors is by using an agro-hydrological model. In this study, the aim was to quantify aspects of the soil water balance and to make estimates of land and water productivity for soybean in a clay soil and maize in a medium texture in the Cerrado region using SWAP simulations for different irrigation strategies. Effects on agricultural productivity of a climatic prevision with increasing the air temperature and rainfall reduction for the years 2016-2040 were also simulated. Results show that an increase of soil porosity, resulting from a conservation tillage management, leads to a higher infiltration capacity and is shown to increase land and water productivity, when associated to irrigation scenarios. Higher water productivities were observed with only supplementary irrigation. Predicted climate changes will lead to a decrease of approximately 20% by the end of the years 2016-2040 in land productivity, under rainfed conditions.O Cerrado é o segundo maior bioma brasileiro que originalmente, correspondia a 24% do território nacional, e desde os anos 1970 tem sido utilizado para atividades ligadas à agricultura e pecuária. Soja e milho são duas das mais importantes culturas graníferas encontradas nesta região, com uma estimativa de produtividade de aproximadamente 223 milhoes de toneladas na safra brasileira de 2016/17. Mudanças nas propriedades físicas do solo devido ao manejo do solo afetam a produtividade agrícola. Possíveis mudanças de variáveis climáticas também poderão afetar a produtividade agrícola, tanto por unidade de área (produtividade de terra) ou por unidade de volume de água (produtividade de água). Uma opção para estudar as relações entre a produtividade de água e de terra e como elas são afetadas pelas propriedades hidraulicas do solo e pelos fatores climáticos é pela utilização de um modelo agro-hidrológico. Neste trabalho, o objetivo foi quantificar os aspectos do balanço hídrico do solo e realizar estimativas da produtividade de água e de terra para soja em um solo argiloso e para milho em um solo de textura média, na região do Cerrado, utilizando simulações com o modelo SWAP para diferentes manejos de irrigação. Os efeitos na produtividade agrícola de uma previsão climática com aumento da temperatura do ar e redução da precipitação para os anos 2016-2040 foram também simulados. Os resultados mostram que um aumento na porosidade do solo, resultante de um manejo conservacionista do solo, leva a uma maior infiltração e resulta num aumento na produtividade da terra e da água, quando associado a cenários de irrigação. As maiores produtividades da água foram observadas com irrigação suplementar. As mudanças climáticas previstas levarão a uma diminuição de aproximadamente 20% na produtividade da terra ao final dos anos 2016-2040, em áreas não irrigadas.
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Valenzuela, Jonathan A. "Study of plantar pressure distribution on a foot in a dynamic landing scenario, while subjected to contact with a Spira shoe sole using finite element analysis /." To access this resource online via ProQuest Dissertations and Theses @ UTEP, 2007. http://0-proquest.umi.com.lib.utep.edu/login?COPT=REJTPTU0YmImSU5UPTAmVkVSPTI=&clientId=2515.
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Aprigliano, Gian Maria. "Analisi di scenari di riduzione delle plastiche monouso in Italia." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/19772/.
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La Commissione europea ha approvato una nuova direttiva 940/2019/UE, che implementerà le restrizioni sull’uso di plastiche monouso (SUP).
Tale analisi comprende una mappatura redatta da Legambiente (“Beach litter – indagine sui rifiuti nelle spiagge italiane 2019 – 2018 - 2017”), sui rifiuti monitorati sul litorale italiano.
Partendo da tale analisi, sono state considerate solamente le plastiche messe al bando dalla direttiva europea, inoltre per stimare il quantitativo di plastica monouso, ove non erano presenti dati specifici in letteratura, sono state applicate le seguenti ipotesi: utilizzo di almeno un prodotto in plastica monouso per 365 giorni l’anno per ogni abitante, il numero di abitanti è approssimato in Italia a 60 milioni.
Questo studio prendendo come modello quello sviluppato dall’ Agenzia Norvegese (The Norwegian Environment Agency, “Reduced Littering of Single–Use Plastics / Mapping and analysis of Potential Measures to Reduce the Littering of Certain Single-Use Plastic Products”), comprende una mappatura di 11 plastiche monouso, e sviluppa un’analisi per valutare se una transizione a materiali alternativi e multiuso alla plastica monouso, può contribuire alla riduzione dei rifiuti marini e alla riduzione dell’impatto ambientale.
L’analisi si basa sul consumo di oggi di plastica monouso, e alla quantità di rifiuti prodotti in relazione ai due scenari si seguito descritti:
1) Una transizione completa per prodotti monouso non plastici (SUNP)
2) Una transizione completa agli elementi multiuso (MU).
Questo approccio stabilisce gli impatti ambientali, economici e sociali di misure che possono essere utilizzate per favorire il passaggio a prodotti in materiali alternativi alla plastica monouso, e affrontare in tal modo il problema ambientale legato al quantitativo di materiale plastico monouso presente nel nostro territorio e nei mari.
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Dars, Ghulam Hussain. "Climate Change Impacts on Precipitation Extremes over the Columbia River Basin Based on Downscaled CMIP5 Climate Scenarios." PDXScholar, 2013. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/979.
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Hydro-climate extreme analysis helps understanding the process of spatio-temporal variation of extreme events due to climate change, and it is an important aspect in designing hydrological structures, forecasting floods and an effective decision making in the field of water resources design and management. The study evaluates extreme precipitation events over the Columbia River Basin (CRB), the fourth largest basin in the U.S., by simulating four CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) for the historical period (1970-1999) and future period (2041-2070) under RCP85 GHG scenario.
We estimated the intensity of extreme and average precipitation for both winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) seasons by using the GEV distribution and multi-model ensemble average over the domain of the Columbia River Basin. The four CMIP5 models performed very well at simulating precipitation extremes in the winter season. The CMIP5 climate models showed heterogeneous spatial pattern of summer extreme precipitation over the CRB for the future period. It was noticed that multi-model ensemble mean outperformed compared to the individual performance of climate models for both seasons.
We have found that the multi-model ensemble shows a consistent and significant increase in the extreme precipitation events in the west of the Cascades Range, Coastal Ranges of Oregon and Washington State, the Canadian portion of the basin and over the Rocky Mountains. However, the mean precipitation is projected to decrease in both winter and summer seasons in the future period.
The Columbia River is dominated by the glacial snowmelt, so the increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation and decrease in mean precipitation in the future period, as simulated by four CMIP5 models, is expected to aggravate the earlier snowmelt and contribute to the flooding in the low lying areas especially in the west of the Cascades Range. In addition, the climate change shift could have serious implications on transboundary water issues in between the United States and Canada. Therefore, adaptation strategies should be devised to cope the possible adverse effects of the changing the future climate so that it could have minimal influence on hydrology, agriculture, aquatic species, hydro-power generation, human health and other water related infrastructure.
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SINARUGULIYE, JEAN DE LA CROIX, and JEAN BAPTISTE HATEGEKIMANA. "BIOGAS DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS TOWARDS 2020 IN RWANDA: The contribution to the energy sector and socio-economic and environmental impacts." Thesis, Högskolan i Gävle, Akademin för teknik och miljö, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-15816.
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Access to modern energy is essential to achieve sustainable development and poverty reduction. However, with about 321 kWh per capita, Rwanda is ranked among the countries that have a lower consumption of primary energy in the world. More than 86 percent of its total energy comes from the traditional biomass energy such as forests, agricultural residues and by-products from crops that lead to environmental degradation and ecological imbalance and negative impacts on human health as well. In addition, only 301,500 ha of forest are available for fuel wood and other uses such as construction for a total population of 10.5 million. Therefore, decentralized energy sources in small-scale are presented to improve access to "appropriate" energy, which are beneficial to human health and environmental perspectives. The anaerobic digestion of biomass, popularly called “biogas”, is one of the appropriate energy technologies for cooking and/or lighting purposes (both in households and in institutions), which receives special attention in Rwanda since 2007. Three main objectives of this study were to assess the current biogas sector in Rwanda, to make projections of biogas development by 2020 and finally to analyze the socio-economic and environment benefits of biogas use to the Rwandan community. The fieldwork conducted in two districts per province in addition to services that are in the capital, was based on the structured questionnaire, discussion with key people and see the state of biogas built. Therefore, in this study we used the "Appropriate Energy Model” to measure the degree of biogas dissemination, which educates for “geographical, institutional, entrepreneurial and socio-cultural “aspects. The results showed that the temperature conditions in the country are generally conducive to the operation of a digester. However, the drought period between June and August, water scarcity in some regions and a low potential for digester feeding impede the propagation of biogas to a large number of people. The Rwandan entrepreneurs do not face institutional barriers to start-up biogas companies since the bureaucratic system in registration of a company is transparent. The installation costs of biogas plant are so high that they hamper the dissemination of biogas; however biogas technology does not contradict the socio-cultural conditions of Rwandans. Based on projections of potential biogas in Rwanda in 2020, following three scenarios for 2020 biogas development were identified: 1,135,000 biogas plants can be built in 2020 by considering a global basis the potential biogas available If 70% of the population will live in grouped settlements in 2020, 70% of Rwandan households will use biogas if additional resources as livestock and subsidies were provided to the poor families. Only 10% of the population (251,000households) will be eligible for biogas installation Reducing the consumption of firewood after biogas operation provides annual coverage of approximately 0.306 ha of forest area per household. Therefore, each household biogas would reduce annual GHG emissions of about 4.1 tonnes of CO2 and could possibly lead to Rwanda an annual income of about USD 21 due to the reduction of CO2 emissions in a hypothetical rate USD 5 per ton of CO2 if registered under the CDM.