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1
Corus, Sinan. "The Impact Of Sectoral Competition On Inflation In Turkey." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611147/index.pdf.
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This thesis explores the impact of sectoral competition on inflation in Turkey. To this end, panel data analyses investigating the determinants of deviation of sectoral price inflation from the consumer price inflation, and the resulting effect of the changes in the level of sectoral competition on this deviation measure are conducted in both static and dynamic frameworks. The empirical analyses covers the 1995-2001 period and 62 manufacturing sectors classified according to International Standard of Industrial Classification (ISIC) Rev. 2 at 4-digit level. The findings of the empirical analyses are particularly important for the assessment of the theoretical foundations and empirical basis of the recent proposals favoring enhancement of competition with disinflationary motives. The static analyses suggest that sectoral concentration is insignificant in explaining deviations of sectoral inflation from consumer inflation, while dynamic analyses suggest enhancing competition may lead to higher
levels of sectoral inflation. The interpretation of the results indicates that enhancing competition may not be a viable tool for disinflationary purposes in Turkey.
2
Khan, Najib. "Three Essays on the Macroeconomic Impact of Inflation Targeting." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35212.
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This doctoral thesis contains three essays on the macroeconomic impact of inflation targeting:
(1) Inflation-targeting regime, as a framework for monetary policy conduct, has been adopted by central banks in thirty countries. Some of these countries enjoy high incomes while others have middle incomes. In contrast to the development-based classification –often applied in the literature, thus ignoring income disparity– this study employs income-based classification in constructing the data sample. The objective is to investigate, using a panel of middle-income countries, whether inflation targeting is a good remedy for high inflation. In addition to the commonly used covariates in the literature, this study also includes in its covariate matrix the worldwide governance indicators as proxy for institutional quality. The findings exhibit a significant reduction of inflation and its volatility among the inflation-targeting adopters compared to the non-adopting middle-income countries. The results are robust to the exclusion of high inflation episodes, and to using the alternative measures of inflation. The results are also robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests recommended for such empirical analysis.
(2) Many economists acknowledge the paramount role that foreign investment plays in fostering economic development and growth via integrating economies around the globe. Studies have shown that foreign investment, particularly foreign direct investment (FDI) is attracted to countries that exhibit good governance, low uncertainty and a high degree of macroeconomic stability. The literature also argues that monetary policy under inflation targeting (IT) mitigates uncertainty, enhances governance and brings macroeconomic stability to the adopting countries. Hence, it would seem that the IT-adoption should enable the adopting countries attract the largest FDI inflows. To verify this conjecture, this study performs a comparison between the IT-adopting countries and the non-adopters in attracting FDI. Using a panel of OECD and middle-income countries, the empirical findings exhibit an interesting but contradicting pattern: when it comes to the OECD countries, the results show that the IT-adopters do better than the non-adopters in attracting the FDI inflows. For the middle-income countries, however, the IT-adoption appears to have the opposite effect: a significant reduction in the FDI inflows is witnessed among the IT-adopters compared to their counterparts. The results are robust to the post-estimation sensitivity tests.
(3) Inflation targeting, as a monetary-policy framework, is said to promote economic efficiency and growth. Yet, when evaluating the macroeconomic performance of inflation-targeting regimes, the existing literature only emphasizes the dynamics of inflation and the costs associated with taming inflation. There is hardly any assessment of the claim of efficiency and growth. To fill this gap, and to measure the causal impact of inflation-targeting adoption on economic efficiency, we compare the dynamics of output growth and long-term unemployment between countries that have adopted inflation targeting and the non-adopting countries. Our findings seem to refute the efficiency claim, and paint a bleak picture of inflation targeting: when compared to the countries that did not adopt inflation targeting, there is a significant reduction in the average growth rate among the inflation-targeting adopters by over ½ percentage point. Additionally, long-term unemployment significantly rises among the inflation-targeting countries by almost 2 percentage points as compared to the non-adopters. These results are robust to both the exclusion of the outlier observations and to the sensitivity tests recommended for such analysis.
3
Broll, Udo, and Kit Pong Wong. "The impact of inflation risk on forward trading and production." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2014. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-150486.
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This note examines the behavior of a competitive firm that faces joint price and inflation risk. Given that the price risk is negatively correlated with the inflation risk in the sense of expectation dependence, the firm optimally opts for an over-hedge if the firm's coefficient of relative risk aversion is everywhere no greater than unity. Furthermore, banning the firm from forward trading may induce the firm to produce more or less, depending on whether the price risk premium is positive or negative, respectively. While the price risk premium is unambiguously negative in the absence of the inflation risk, it is not the case when the inflation risk prevails. In contrast to the conventional wisdom, forward hedging needs not always promote production should firms take in inflation seriously.
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Colston, Julia M. "The impact of antigen processing on CD8⁺ T cell memory inflation." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:9c5dcf6c-a0c2-43bb-a7a4-d590d37da427.
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T cell "memory inflation" is the sustained induction of effector memory cells that home to peripheral tissues and retain their functionality. Defining the mechanisms that drive these non-classical memory responses may contribute towards the development of novel prophylactic or therapeutic vaccines. A model of memory inflation based on responses to β-galactosidase delivered by a non-replicating adenoviral vector provides a robust tool for investigating the underlying mechanisms. This work has shown that these responses are not dependent upon the human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) promoter within the model, this being the only part of the model that is CMV-derived. This model has been used to test the hypothesis that bypassing antigen processing would result in inflationary memory responses to CD8+ T cell epitopes that are not normally the targets of such responses. When the β-gal497-504 restricted epitope (ICPMYARV) was expressed as a minigene in a recombinant adenovirus vector, inflationary CD8+ T cell responses were induced, instead of the classical responses obtained with full-length β-galactosidase. Similar results were obtained with the M45985-993 (HGIRNASFI) epitope from the mouse cytomegalovirus M45 protein. These data demonstrate that the polypeptide context of a CD8+ T cell epitope may determine whether classical or inflating memory responses are induced. This could be relevant to the design of recombinant antigens in adenoviral vectors, which have emerging therapeutic and prophylactic applications.
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Bagci, Pinar Zeynep. "The impact of IMF stabilisation programmes in developing and transition economies." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.311119.
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Tang, Ao. "The short-term impact of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation." View electronic thesis (PDF), 2009. http://dl.uncw.edu/etd/2009-3/rp/tanga/aotang.pdf.
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Baralexis, Spyridon K. "Impact of general purchasing power accounting on Greek accounts." Thesis, University of Stirling, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/2604.
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This Study addressed the inflation accounting problem with respect to Greece. This problem had been unaddressed despite the serious implications it may have on micro- and macro-decision making due to the high and persistent inflation Greece has sustained from 1973 and afterwards. To accomplish the above purpose, the general significance of inflation accounting as well as its specific significance for Greece was established by means of the existing inflation accounting literature and the economic setting of Greece. Following this, the relevance of GPPA rather than CCA to the Greek financial reporting was established by means of correspondence between specific features of GPPA and specific characteristics of the Greek setting. After having established the a priori relevance of GPPA for Greece, the potential usefulness of GPPA to the Greek users of accounts was established as well on an empirical basis. For this purpose the impact of GPPA on Greek accounts was approximated ex ante through detailed restatement procedures and estimation techniques. It was found that inflation has a serious impact on earnings and especially on such important (for decision making) financial parameters as tax rate, dividend payout ratio, and return on capital employed. This impact of inflation on earnings does not seem to be systematic, and hence it cannot be estimated by use of HCA numbers. Therefore, GPPA should be adopted at least on a supplementary (to HCA) basis, if in the future the increase in the inflation rate continues to be as high as it was in the period examined by the study (i.e. 25% or so). In additon to the main conclusion above, other conclusions drawn on the basis of the empirical findings obtained are as follows: 1. The Composite Age Technique used (mainly in the USA) for the restatement of fixed assets and depreciation does not work at all in the Greek case. In contrast, the Dichotomus Year Technique in the first place, and the Equal Additions Technique, in the second place, may be used for adjusting fixed assets not only in developing countries like Greece, but, perhaps in developed countries as well. 2. Operation costs of GPPA can be saved by restating fixed assets and depreciation on an annual rather than monthly basis. 3. Perhaps the Greek government should consider the taxes imposed on corporate net profits in times of high inflation because it was found that the effective tax rate is substantially different from the nominal one. 4. There are serious implications for the Greek businesses in the finding that in real term dividends are paid out of capital rather than out of income. 5. The profitability of Greek companies is low when measured in real terms. Hence, businessmen should exercise every effort to improve it. On the other hand, the Greek government should consider the prices control imposed.
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Hansson, Lars Lucas Philip, and Lukas Berzups. "The Impact of Inflation on Capital Rotation in Inflationary Inflection Points : An Investigation on How Inflation Affects Capital Rotation Between Major Market Sectors as Economies Shift from Disinflation to Reflation." Thesis, Jönköping University, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-52814.
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There has been a multi-decade disinflationary period that, with the conjunction of recent pandemic-related events, led to extremes in various economic metrics: record lowest interest rates and inflation, increasingly loose monetary and fiscal policies leading to severe debt levels and money supply - all resulting in a multi-front pressure on inflation to start increasing, and after 30 years, for economic environments to reach an inflection point from disinflation to reflation. How would various market sectors perform if suddenly inflation starts to surge? Previous research of similar events, such as in the 1970s, as well as theory, points towards certain market sectors and asset classes, such as commodities, to outperform their peers. Research on this topic is fairly scarce, thus, to better prepare for such an inflationary event and gain insight on which market sectors are best to invest in or avoid, this paper conducts an investigation to explore that scenario. By looking at 11 major market sectors over 10 countries' historic inflationary points that shifted from disinflation to reflation, analysis determined that, while certain sectors are indeed more sensitive to changes in inflation than others, many more are sensitive to changes in interest rates that normally accompany inflation. Sectors such as Energy, Consumer Discretionary and Financials would perform well during this period, while sectors such as Information Technology would historically underperform. Contrary to the theory, not enough relation was discovered by the analysis towards the commodity sector as a whole to overperform, however, that does not mean that none exist. Further research is still required on this topic to increase knowledge and awareness so that the negative impact of inflationary events like the ones of the 1930s and 1970s can be avoided and even taken advantage of.
9
Manrique, Luis. "The impact of inflation on family money income distribution in Venezuela during the 1980s." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 1995. http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA311420.
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Thesis (M.S. in Management) Naval Postgraduate School, June 1995.Thesis advisor(s) Katsuaki L. Terasawa, David R. Henderson. "June 1995." Includes bibliographical references. Also available online.
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Ezzeddine, Moussa. "Pricing football transfers : determinants, inflation, sustainability, and market impact : finance, economics, and machine learning approaches." Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. https://ecm.univ-paris1.fr/nuxeo/site/esupversions/04b54a9e-f462-42c1-b567-4864dbaae12f.
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Chaque année, le marché des transferts fait la une des journaux à cause des prix astronomiques payés par les grands clubs de football pour s'acheter des stars. Le montant payé par le club est supposé être une estimation de la valeur du joueur sur le marché. L'objectif de cette thèse est donc de déterminer les facteurs significatifs impactant le modèle de valorisation des joueurs. Pour ce faire, nous exploitons une base de données contenant 87 000 transferts et plus de 200 000 salaires avec deux types de variables ; une variable contenant des données statistiques sur chaque joueur pour les deux saisons précédentes, l'autre contenant une synthèse de notes données par les experts. Ce travail a été réalisé à partir d'un modèle de valorisation hédonique et de trois algorithmes de Machine Learning pour estimer les facteurs les plus importants dans la détermination de la valeur d'un joueur. Bien que perfectible, ces modèles sont capables de prédire les fonctions de prix des transferts et des salaires associés. Enfin, un modèle de marché a été implémenté pour déterminer l'effet des transferts, des résultats inattendus de matchs et de la Covid-19 dans la valeur d'un club de football. Ces recherches ont permis de fournir des explications prometteuses à propos des différentes segmentations sur le marché des transferts et l'impact de ces derniers sur la fluctuation de la valeur de certains clubsEach year new transfer market news tops headlines due to the astronomical prices paid to recruit a superstar by top football clubs. The money paid by the buying club is assumed to be an estimate of the market value of the transferred player. Thus, the challenge is to determine the significant factors that affect the pricing function of a football player. In this research, a large data set has been extracted containing more than 87,000 transfers and more than 200,000 wage observation alongside two sets of variables; one contains real statistics of each player from the previous two seasons, while the other contains synthetic scores given by experts. This work has made use of one hedonic pricing function and three machine learning algorithms to estimate the most important factors affecting the financial value of the player. Albeit imperfect, but the models can predict the pricing functions of the transfer fees and wages with different promising precisions. Finally, a market model has been carried out to determine the effect of transfers, surprising match results, and COVID-19 on the market value of a football club. The overall findings were promising as they have provided interesting explanations about the different segmentations in the transfer market and the effectivity of transfers on the fluctuations of the share values of certain clubs
11
Leith, Campbell Blair. "Four essays on monetary and fiscal policy and an investigation on the impact of insolvency risk on aggregate investment." Thesis, University of Exeter, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.288021.
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Ramlogan, Carlyn. "An investigation into the nature and impact of financial repression in Trinidad and Tobago, 1960-1991." Thesis, Loughborough University, 1996. https://dspace.lboro.ac.uk/2134/11380.
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This research examines the nature and impact of financial repression in the Trinidad and Tobago economy using cointegration time series techniques and disequilibrium econometrics. While the former is employed to estimate the impact on savings, investment and growth, the latter is mainly used to test whether the characteristics which depict a financially repressed economy are present in Trinidad and Tobago. Trinidad and Tobago has not previously been the subject of such a study, and neither estimation methods have been used to investigate financial repression. While the real interest has been most frequently used to measure financial repression, six proxies are utilised in this study: the real interest rate; dummy variables; commercial banks' reserve requirement; inflation; the difference between the domestic and the foreign interest rate and a variable to measure the overvaluation of a country's currency. With respect to the latter there are two definitions: the difference between the official and the blackmarket exchange rate and the degree of exchange rate misalignment. The results using real interest rates and inflation measures of financial repression suggest that while liberalisation cannot be seen as the solution to increasing savings and investment it may promote economic growth. When all the other proxies are examined the impact of financial repression on the economy is negative albeit statistically insignificant in most instances. There is some indication that exchange rate should be devalued so as to reduce exchange rate misalignment and reduce the widening gap between the official and blackmarket rate. On the basis of these results the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis cannot be rejected. However the results when inflation and real interest rates are the relevant proxies for financial repression as well as the low significance levels of other proxies, ought to serve as warning signals to avoid implementing drastic liberalisation measures too quickly.
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Khan, Muhammad. "Impact de l’Inflation sur la croissance et ses déterminants macroéconomiques." Thesis, Orléans, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ORLE0503/document.
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La présente thèse analyse l’impact de l’inflation sur la croissance économique et ses différents déterminants. Dansun premier temps, notre étude s’intéresse à deux aspects de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance économique.Ainsi, nous examinons tout d’abord la non-linéarité du lien entre l’inflation et la croissance économique et identifionsplusieurs seuils pour l'échantillon global ainsi que pour les différents sous-échantillons définis selon le niveau durevenu. Ensuite, nous procédons à l’identification de certaines caractéristiques macroéconomiques au niveau despays qui influencent cette non-linéarité. Nos résultats empiriques corroborent les deux éléments d’analyse précédentset montrent que la non-linéarité de la relation entre l'inflation et la croissance dépend de l’ouverture commerciale dupays, de son accumulation de capital et du niveau de ses dépenses publiques (chapitre 2). Puis, dans un secondtemps, nous nous intéressons à l’explication de la non-linéarité de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance entestant l’effet Tobin de l’inflation sur le capital physique et sur l’effet de substitution entre le travail et l’éducationpour le capital humain. Nous montrons que l’impact positif des taux d’inflation modérés résulte de l’effet Tobin surle capital physique, tandis que la réduction de l'impact de l'accélération de l'inflation provient d’une meilleureaccumulation du capital humain. Nous confirmons tous ces effets et mettons en évidence le rôle du développementfinancier pour l'ensemble de ces mécanismes (chapitre 3). Enfin, nous abordons la question du manque de cohérenceentre la vision macroéconomique fondée sur la détermination d’un seuil optimal d'inflation et les préférences réellesdes banques centrales à travers le monde. Nous remarquons que les banques centrales utilisent des modèlesmicroéconomiques néo-keynésiens qui définissent le taux d'inflation optimal comme celui minimisant les dispersionsdans les marchés des produits et des facteurs de production. Nous testons alors l'effet de l'inflation sur la variabilitédes prix relatifs et de la croissance ; nos résultats montrent que seul un faible taux d’inflation positif réduit cesincertitudes et cela quel que soit le niveau de revenu du pays. Concernant les pays émergents de notre échantillon, lechoix du régime de politique monétaire affecte également cette variabilité (chapitre 4)This thesis is concerned with the effects of inflation on output growth and on its determinants. In the first step, ourstudy analyzes two aspects of the inflation–growth relationship. First, it examines the nonlinearity of the relationshipbetween inflation and output growth and identifies several thresholds for the global sample and for various incomespecificsub-samples. Secondly, it identifies some country-based macroeconomic features that influence thisnonlinearity. Our empirical results substantiate both views and validate the fact that the inflation–growth nonlinearityis sensitive to a country’s trade openness capital accumulation, and government expenditures (chapter 2). After that,we explain this inflation–growth nonlinearity by testing a Tobin effect of inflation on physical capital and asubstitution effect – from work to education – for human capital. We find that the positive effects of moderateinflation rate are due to the Tobin effect on physical capital whereas a weak negative effect of high inflation ratestems from a better human capital accumulation. We identify a strong role of well developed financial systems in allthese mechanisms (chapter 3). Lastly, we address a lack of coherence between the macro based optimal inflationthresholds for output growth and the actual preferences of central banks around the world. We notice that centralbanks use micro based New-Keynesian models and their optimal inflation rate is the one that minimizes dispersionsin factors and product markets. We test the effect of inflation on relative price variability and output growthvariability and, for all income groups, the results support a slight positive inflation rate to minimize theseuncertainties. For our selected emerging economies, monetary policy regimes also affect these dispersions (chapter4)
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Nåbo, Axel, and Oscar Wahlgren. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inflation : A panel data analysis on government spending and the price level." Thesis, Jönköping University, Internationella Handelshögskolan, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-53086.
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Bullard, González Alfredo, and Requena Julio Gamero. "The minimum living wage and its impact on workers." THĒMIS-Revista de Derecho, 2014. http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/108398.
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The diverse discussions around the Minimum Living Wage have been very controversial and constant over the past decades due to the economic, social and political context inwhich Peru was immersed. However, these discussions have reduced its recurrence overthe past years as a result of various factors, such as the development of labor rights andimprovement of the economic situation.However, it is extremely relevant to understand the importance of the role of the Minimum Living Wage and the implications it may have over the workers. That is why in the present exposition there will be a presentation of the opposing positions regarding the impact–positive or negative– of the existence of a Minimum Living Wage on workers.Las discusiones alrededor de la Remuneración Mínima Vital han sido muy polémicas yconstantes en las décadas pasadas debido alcontexto económico, social y político en el queel Perú se encontraba inmerso. Sin embargo, esas discusiones son cada vez menos recurrentes en la actualidad como resultado de la interacción de diversos factores, tales como eldesarrollo de los derechos laborales y la mejora de la situación económica.No obstante, es sumamente relevante entender la importancia del rol que tiene la Remuneración Mínima Vital y las implicancias de su fijación para los trabajadores. Es por ello que, en la presente exposición, se presentarán posiciones encontradas respecto al impacto –positivo o negativo– que la determinación de un salario mínimo puede tener en los trabajadores.
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Hill, Robert J., Miriam Steurer, and Sofie R. Waltl. "Owner Occupied Housing in the CPI and its Impact on Monetary Policy during Housing Booms and Busts." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2019. http://epub.wu.ac.at/7039/1/WP285.pdf.
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The treatment of owner-occupied housing (OOH) is probably the most important unresolved issue in inflation measurement. How -- and whether -- it is included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) affects inflation expectations, the measured level of real interest rates, and the behavior of governments, central banks and market participants. We show that none of the existing treatments of OOH are fit for purpose. Hence we propose a new simplified user cost
method with better properties. Using a micro-level dataset, we then compare the empirical behavior of eight different treatments of OOH. Our preferred user cost approach pushes up the CPI during housing booms (by 2 percentage points or more). Our findings relate to the following important debates in macroeconomics: the behavior of the Phillips curve in the US during the global financial crisis, and the response of monetary policy to housing booms, secular
stagnation, and globalization.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Fouché, Elizabeth Maria. "The impact of price discrimination on tourism demand / Elizabeth Maria Fouché." Thesis, North-West University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/1162.
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The primary goal of this study was to determine the impact of price discrimination
on tourism demand. Four objectives were defined with reference to the primary
research goal.
The first objective was to analyse the concept of price discrimination and relevant
theories by means of a literature study. In this regard it was found that price
discrimination between markets is fairly common and that it occurs if the same
goods were sold to different customers at different prices. Price discrimination is
also possible as soon as some monopoly power exists and it is feasible when it is
impossible or at least impractical for the buyers to trade among themselves.
Three different kinds of price discrimination can be applied, namely first-degree,
second-degree and third-degree price discrimination. The data also indicated
that price discrimination is advantageous (it mainly increases profit) and that it
has several other effects too.
The second objective was to analyse examples of price discrimination by means
of international case studies. In these different case studies it was found that
demand and supply, therefore consumer and product, formed the basis of price
discrimination. If demand did not exist, it would be impossible to apply price
discrimination. The findings also indicated that, for an organisation to be able to
practice price discrimination, the markets must be separated effectively and it will
only be successful if there is a significant difference in demand elasticity between
the different consumers. Furthermore, the ability to charge these different prices
will depend on the consumer's ability and willingness to pay. If an organisation
should decide to price discriminate, it would lead to a higher profit, a more
optimal pricing policy and also to an increase in sales.
The third objective was to analyse national case studies. This was done through
comparing the data of a tourism organisation price discriminating (Mosetlha Bush
Camp, situated in the North West) to two organisations that did not implement
price discrimination (Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park in the Northern Cape and
Golden Leopard Resort, also situated in the North West). It was found that a
customer with low price elasticity is less deterred by a higher price than a
customer with a high price elasticity of demand. As long as the customer's price
elasticity is less than one, it will be very advantageous to increase the price: the
seller will in this case get more money for less goods. With the increase in price
the price elasticity tends to rise above one.
The fourth objective was to draw conclusions and make recommendations. It
was concluded that price discrimination could be applied successfully in virtually
any organisation or industry. Furthermore, price discrimination does not always
have a negative effect; but can have a positive ass well. It can have a positive
effect on tourism demand. The findings emphasised that the main reason for
implementing price discrimination is to increase profit at the cost of reducing
consumer surplus. From the results it was recommended that more research on
this topic should be conducted.Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2006.
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Ilg, Melanie Verfasser], Rudi [Akademischer Betreuer] Zagst, Ralf [Akademischer Betreuer] Werner, and Rüdiger [Akademischer Betreuer] [Kiesel. "Defaultable term structure models: macroeconomic impact and valuation of complex credit- and inflation-linked derivatives / Melanie Ilg. Gutachter: Ralf Werner ; Rüdiger Kiesel ; Rudi Zagst. Betreuer: Rudi Zagst." München : Universitätsbibliothek der TU München, 2013. http://d-nb.info/1036727947/34.
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Hörnell, Fredrik, and Melina Hafelt. "Responsiveness of Swedish housing prices to the 2018 amortization requirement : An investigation using a structural Vector autoregressive model to estimate the impact of macro prudential regulation on the Swedish housing market." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Nationalekonomi, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-35533.
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This thesis analyzed and estimated the impact of the March 1, 2018 loan to income amortization requirement on residential real estate prices in Sweden. A four variables vector autoregressive model (VAR) was used to study the relationships between residential real estate prices, GDP, real mortgage rate and consumer price index over a time period from 2005 to 2017. First, a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model was used to test how a structural innovation in the error term for real mortgage rate affected residential real estate prices. Secondly, an unconditional forecast from our reduced VAR was produced to estimate post 2017 price growth of the Swedish housing market. The impulse response function results stand in contradiction to economic intuition i.e. the price puzzle problem. The unconditional forecast indicates that the housing market will enter a period with slower price growth post 2017, which are in line with previous research. This thesis vector autoregressive model can give meaningful results with regard to trend forecasts but with regard to precise statements as anticipating drastic price depreciation, it falls short. We recommend the use of reduced VAR forecasting with regard to the Swedish housing market.
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Belo, Teresa Freitas. "The relevance of microcredit and its impact om East Timor MSEs and proverty reduction." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/25451.
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Microcredit has an important role in the growth and productivity of the micro, small and
medium enterprises (MSMEs) in East Timor, also on poverty reduction in other countries. The
objective of this thesis, comprised of four essays, is to provide empirical evidence of the impact
of microcredit on the growth and productivity of MSEs and poverty reduction of a selected set
of specific factors. As microcredit is still a relevant issue of concern for some countries, due to
their considerable role and functions for the growth and productivity of MSEs, the first paper
performs an empirical analysis of MSEs data obtained with the application of a questionnaire in
Dili, East Timor. The second paper examines the impact of microcredit on MSEs growth in Dili,
East Timor, controlling for MSE age and size, micro saving and also for the firms' activity sector,
firm’s investment type and the gender of the owner/manager of the firm, with 1-year data. The
third paper examines the impact of microcredit on the productivity (measured by single factor
productivity (SFP), total factor productivity (TFP) and labor productivity (LP)) of MSEs in East
Timor, with 1-year data. Lastly, the fourth paper examines the impact of microcredit, job
creation, inflation rates and education on poverty reduction, controlling for income and its
distribution, in East Timor, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia, Pakistan,
Malaysia, Thailand, Nepal, and Srilanka, with data from 2007-2016.
The results obtained suggest that: (i) the microcredit had a significant contribution on the
growth and productivity of MSEs; (ii) the microcredit had positive impact on the growth of MSEs;
(iii) the microcredit had a positive impact on MSEs productivity; and (iv) microcredit had a
significant impact on the poverty reduction; Resumo:
O microcrédito tem um papel importante no crescimento e produtividade das micro e
pequenas empresas (MPEs), contribuíndo para a redução da pobreza em Timor-Leste tal como
acontece em muitos outros países. O objetivo desta tese, composta por quatro artigos
científicos, é fornecer evidências empíricas do impacto do microcrédito no crescimento e
produtividade das MPEs e redução da pobreza, de um conjunto selecionado de factores
específicos. Continuando o microcrédito a ser um fator relevante para alguns países devido ao
seu papel e funções consideráveis no crescimento e produtividade das MPE, fizemos em
primeiro lugar uma análise da evidência empírica do microcrédito nas MPE de Timor-Leste, com
dados de 1 ano, obtidos com o recurso a um questionário. O segundo artigo analisa o impacto
do microcrédito no crescimento das MPE em Díli, Timor-Leste, tendo em conta a idade e
dimensão das MPE, a micro poupança e, também, o sector de actividade das empresas, o tipo
de investimento das empresas e o género do proprietário/gestor da empresa, também com
dados de 1 ano. O terceiro artigo examina o impacto do microcrédito na produtividade (medida
pela produtividade de fator único (SFP), produtividade total dos fatores (TFP) e produtividade
do trabalho (LP)) das MPEs em Timor-Leste, ainda com dados de 1 ano. Por último, o quarto
artigo examina o impacto do microcrédito, criação de emprego, taxas de inflação, relação entre
educação e redução da pobreza, contorlando a obtenção de rendimento e sua distribuição, em
Timor-Leste, Bangladesh, Indonésia, Filipinas, Myanmar, Camboja, Paquistão, Malásia,
Tailândia, Nepal e Srilanka, com dados para o período 2007-2016.
Os resultados obtidos sugerem que: (i) o microcrédito teve uma contribuição significativa no
crescimento e produtividade das MPE; (ii) o microcrédito teve impacto positivo no crescimento
das MPE; (iii) o microcrédito teve um impacto positivo na produtividade das MPE; e (iv) o
microcrédito teve um impacto significativo na redução da pobreza.
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Garner, Gary Owen. "An analysis of holding cost impact on housing affordability in relation to midsized Greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2012. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/50957/1/Gary_Garner_Thesis.pdf.
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The position of housing demand and supply is not consistent. The Australian situation counters the experience demonstrated in many other parts of the world in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, with residential housing prices proving particularly resilient. A seemingly inexorable housing demand remains a critical issue affecting the socio-economic landscape. Underpinned by high levels of population growth fuelled by immigration, and further buoyed by sustained historically low interest rates, increasing income levels, and increased government assistance for first home buyers, this strong housing demand level ensures problems related to housing affordability continue almost unabated. A significant, but less visible factor impacting housing affordability relates to holding costs. Although only one contributor in the housing affordability matrix, the nature and extent of holding cost impact requires elucidation: for example, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely - and in some instances completely ignored. In addition, ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements that comprise holding costs, thereby affecting the assessment of their relative contribution. Such anomalies may be explained by considering that assessment is conducted over time in an ever-changing environment. A strong relationship with opportunity cost - in turn dependant inter alia upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates - adds further complexity. By extending research in the general area of housing affordability, this thesis seeks to provide a detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs specifically in the context of midsized (i.e. between 15-200 lots) greenfield residential property developments in South East Queensland. With the dimensions of holding costs and their influence over housing affordability determined, the null hypothesis H0 that holding costs are not passed on can be addressed. Arriving at these conclusions involves the development of robust economic and econometric models which seek to clarify the componentry impacts of holding cost elements. An explanatory sequential design research methodology has been adopted, whereby the compilation and analysis of quantitative data and the development of an economic model is informed by the subsequent collection and analysis of primarily qualitative data derived from surveying development related organisations. Ultimately, there are significant policy implications in relation to the framework used in Australian jurisdictions that promote, retain, or otherwise maximise, the opportunities for affordable housing.
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Yunculer, Caglar. "Import Price Pass-through Into Inflation Indicators In Turkey." Master's thesis, METU, 2009. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611094/index.pdf.
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This thesis analyzes the pass-through of external factors into consumer and producer prices in Turkey, with a special emphasis on import price pass-through. To this end, pricing along a distribution chain framework is utilized and it is estimated by Vector Auto Regression (VAR) in a sample period of April 2002 to March 2009. Results show that the pass-through of external shocks into producer prices is higher than it is for consumer prices. Compared with the results of previous studies, findings point out that the degree of pass-through has declined recently in Turkey. In addition, it is found that external factors had significant contribution to annual consumer inflation between 2006 and 2008. Nevertheless, even the contributions of external shocks are excluded, year-end inflation targets would not have been attained.
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Shahbazian, Roujman. "The Exchange Rate Pass-through Into Domestic Manufacturing Prices During Two Inflation Regimes." Thesis, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-107542.
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In the beginning of 1990s Sweden implemented several measures in order to maintain price stability. These measures have resulted in an environment in which inflation is lower and more stable. The same development could be seen in other OECD countries. At the same time a decrease in exchange rate pass-through was noticed in many countries. This has led researchers to believe that there may be a connection, between these two phenomena. This dissertation analyzes whether there has been any change in exchange rate pass-through for manufacturing products in Sweden between the high inflation period (1977-1993) and the low inflation period (1994-2006). The result shows that there is a difference in the exchange rate pass-through between the two periods. During the low inflation period the degree of pass-through was lower than during the high inflation period.
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Pinto, Daniel Mathias Alves. "O impacto de choques inflacionários na estrutura a termo de taxas de juros." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/10586.
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This paper analyzes the impact of inflation surprises in the variations of the agents' expectations regarding interest rate, as measured by the Term Structure of Interest Rate at BM&F. The inflationary surprises are variations in actual inflation around the inflation expected, synthesized by FOCUS report of the Central Bank. The empirical approach used was the method of OLS with errors robust to heteroscedasticity, identified from exogenous variation arising from the disclosure of the monthly IPCA inflation index. For the period from January 2003 to October 2012, the results are in line with what is expected and show that agents change their expectations of monetary policy when they are surprised.
O presente trabalho analisa o impacto de surpresas inflacionárias, definidas como a diferença entre inflação esperada e inflação efetiva, sobre as variações na expectativa dos agentes em relação à política monetária, medida através da Estrutura a Termo de Taxa de Juros retirada dos contratos de juros futuros da BM&F. A abordagem empírica utilizada foi a do método dos Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários com erros robustos à heterocedasticidade, identificado a partir das variações exógenas decorrentes da divulgação mensal do índice IPCA de inflação. Para o período de janeiro de 2003 a outubro de 2012, os resultados estão em linha com que o que é esperado e mostram que os agentes alteram suas expectativas de política monetária quando são surpreendidos.
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Liu, Hong Liang. "L'ouverture de la Chine et ses impacts sur l'économie chinoise." Phd thesis, Université de Bourgogne, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00873344.
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Au début des années 80, le gouvernement chinois a lancé une politique d'ouverture dans le but d'attirer les capitaux, les compétences modernes et les techniques avancées nécessaires au développement économique de la Chine. Aujourd'hui, cette politique semble porter ses fruits. La Chine, qui était un pays quasiment autarcique avant les années 1980, est devenue actuellement le premier pays exportateur et le deuxième pays destinataire des investissements directs étrangers du monde. Jusqu'à présent, la plupart des travaux de recherche sur l'ouverture économique de la Chine se sont contentés de démontrer les effets positifs des exportations et des entrées des IDE sur l'économie interne de la Chine. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, en partant d'une analyse fondée sur l'économie de production et en étudiant la relation entre le taux de change du yuan, l'exportation, l'investissement direct étranger et le revenu, nous démontrons que la politique d'ouverture menée par le gouvernement chinois depuis les années 80 ne profite pas vraiment à la plupart des habitants de la Chine. En nous fondant sur la notion d'inflation-déséquilibre monétaire, nous expliquons que l'exportation nette et l'entrée d'investissements directs étrangers en Chine ont provoqué une tension inflationniste et une dégradation du pouvoir d'achat réel de la majorité de ses habitants ainsi qu'une aggravation des inégalités économiques. Ces effets ne peuvent pas être corrigés par la politique monétaire de la Banque centrale chinoise. De plus, cette politique monétaire est susceptible d'engendrer un dysfonctionnement de l'économie chinoise dans la mesure où elle accentue les difficultés financières de nombreuses entreprises, notamment celles de petite taille, ce que tente de démontrer cette thèse
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Cullberg, Adrian, and Martin Olsson. "Borta låg men hemma lägst : Importprisernas roll för inflationen i Sverige." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-159759.
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Trots minusränta, kvantitativa lättnader och positiv BNP-tillväxt är inflationen i Sverige 2012 till 2016 närmast obefintlig. Liknande mönster visar sig i stora delar av världen där inflationen under återhämtningen efter den globala finanskrisen 2008 inte beter sig som förväntat. En anledning till den låga inflationen anses bland annat vara att ökad import från låglöneländer, med betydligt lägre prisnivåer än Sveriges, håller tillbaka den svenska inflationen. På global nivå visar forskning att inflationsdynamiken ändras efter den globala finanskrisen och att inflationens känslighet för olika förklaringsvariabler, inklusive importpriserna, ändrar sig. I vissa studier uppvisar importpriserna till och med ett negativt samband med inflationen efter finanskrisen. Syftet med uppsatsen är därför att undersöka hur importpriserna påverkar inflationen och om importprisernas effekt på inflationen ändras efter finanskrisen. För att utreda huruvida importpriser faktiskt påverkar inflationen och i vilken grad detta sker ställer vi med hjälp av månadsdata över förväntad inflation och arbetslöshetsgap upp en modell baserad på Phillipssambandet som vi utökar med importpriser. Vi kommer fram till att importpriserna har en effekt på inflationen och att sambandet är positivt under hela mätperioden. Våra resultat visar att importpriserna är en viktig del av inflationen; under perioden 2017 till 2018 består inflationen till en tredjedel av ökningen i importpriserna. För att undersöka om sambandet förändras i återhämtningsfasen efter finanskrisen introduceras en indikatorvariabel för finanskrisen och en för år 2012 och framåt. Trots tidigare studier som visar på en förändrad effekt av importpriserna efter den globala finanskrisen så finner vi ingen förändring av effekten i och med, eller efter, finanskrisen.
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Ribeiro, José Roberto [UNESP]. "Análise comparada do IGP e IPCs no período 1999-2005: impactos distributivos." Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP), 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/90038.
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ribeiro_jr_me_arafcl.pdf: 397320 bytes, checksum: 6885b64c62fc96b02338f6d4c295c6ea (MD5)As análises apresentadas neste trabalho sobre o comportamento dos índices de preços da economia brasileira corroboram a hipótese de que, ao menos no período recente, o IGP, em suas várias modalidades, tornou-se um indicador enviesado da evolução dos preços. Entre 1999-2005, o IGP acusou variações de preços muito superiores às registradas pelos demais índices de preços apurados por diversas instituições brasileiras. Identifica-se o IPA - que tem peso de 60% na composição do IGP - como sendo o grande responsável por esse comportamento anômalo do IGP. A não convergência entre a inflação acumulada pelo IPA e o IPCA no período 1999-2005, evidenciada pelos testes de cointegração aqui aplicados, ratifica a hipótese acima, fortalecendo a tese de que o IGP teria deixado de cumprir o seu papel de medida síntese da inflação nacional. Os efeitos das flutuações cambiais têm sido acentuadamente mais fortes sobre o IGP do que em relação aos IPCs. Apesar das atualizações realizadas em seus componentes, a estrutura de ponderação do IGP, que remonta a década de 1940, mostrou-se ultrapassada e inadequada para uma economia que optou pelo regime de livre flutuação do câmbio e promoveu uma substancial liberalização comercial e financeira, como é o caso da economia brasileira. Conclui-se o presente trabalho explicitando alguns dos efeitos reais do comportamento do índice sobre a economia, indicando a necessidade de reformulação ou substituição do IGP como indexador de certos preços e contratos econômicofinanceiros.
The analyses presented in this article about the performance of the prices indexes of the Brazilian economy corroborate to the hypothesis that the General Index of Price (IGP), considering its all modalities, became a biased index of prices. In the period 1999-2005, the prices changes measured by the IGP were well above those accused by the other indexes of prices provided by several Brazilian institutions. The Index of Wholesale Prices (IPA) - responsible for 60% of the IGP - is identified as the main responsible for this anomalous performance of the IGP. The non convergence between the inflation measured by the IPA and the inflation measured by the Index of Amplified Consumer Prices (IPCA) in the period 1999- 2005, confirmed by the econometric tests applied here, ratifies the above hypothesis, reinforcing the thesis that the IGP would have failed to perform as an index-synthesis of the national inflation. The effects of the exchange rate floating have been much stronger on the IGP than on the Indexes of Consumer Prices. Despite of the updating of its components, the weighting pattern of the IGP, formulated in the decade of 1940, became old-fashioned and inadequate to an economy that adopted the floating exchange rate system and promoted a substantial trade and financial liberalization, as it is the case of the Brazilian economy.
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Ribeiro, José Roberto. "Análise comparada do IGP e IPCs no período 1999-2005 : impactos distributivos /." Araraquara : [s.n.], 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/90038.
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Resumo: As análises apresentadas neste trabalho sobre o comportamento dos índices de preços da economia brasileira corroboram a hipótese de que, ao menos no período recente, o IGP, em suas várias modalidades, tornou-se um indicador enviesado da evolução dos preços. Entre 1999-2005, o IGP acusou variações de preços muito superiores às registradas pelos demais índices de preços apurados por diversas instituições brasileiras. Identifica-se o IPA - que tem peso de 60% na composição do IGP - como sendo o grande responsável por esse comportamento anômalo do IGP. A não convergência entre a inflação acumulada pelo IPA e o IPCA no período 1999-2005, evidenciada pelos testes de cointegração aqui aplicados, ratifica a hipótese acima, fortalecendo a tese de que o IGP teria deixado de cumprir o seu papel de "medida síntese da inflação nacional". Os efeitos das flutuações cambiais têm sido acentuadamente mais fortes sobre o IGP do que em relação aos IPCs. Apesar das atualizações realizadas em seus componentes, a estrutura de ponderação do IGP, que remonta a década de 1940, mostrou-se ultrapassada e inadequada para uma economia que optou pelo regime de livre flutuação do câmbio e promoveu uma substancial liberalização comercial e financeira, como é o caso da economia brasileira. Conclui-se o presente trabalho explicitando alguns dos efeitos reais do comportamento do índice sobre a economia, indicando a necessidade de reformulação ou substituição do IGP como indexador de certos preços e contratos econômicofinanceiros.Abstract: The analyses presented in this article about the performance of the prices indexes of the Brazilian economy corroborate to the hypothesis that the General Index of Price (IGP), considering its all modalities, became a biased index of prices. In the period 1999-2005, the prices changes measured by the IGP were well above those accused by the other indexes of prices provided by several Brazilian institutions. The Index of Wholesale Prices (IPA) - responsible for 60% of the IGP - is identified as the main responsible for this anomalous performance of the IGP. The non convergence between the inflation measured by the IPA and the inflation measured by the Index of Amplified Consumer Prices (IPCA) in the period 1999- 2005, confirmed by the econometric tests applied here, ratifies the above hypothesis, reinforcing the thesis that the IGP would have failed to perform as an "index-synthesis of the national inflation". The effects of the exchange rate floating have been much stronger on the IGP than on the Indexes of Consumer Prices. Despite of the updating of its components, the weighting pattern of the IGP, formulated in the decade of 1940, became old-fashioned and inadequate to an economy that adopted the floating exchange rate system and promoted a substantial trade and financial liberalization, as it is the case of the Brazilian economy.
Orientador: Luciana Togeito de Almeida
Coorientador: Mário Ferreira Presser
Banca: Heron Carlos Esvael do Carmo
Banca: Alexandre Sartoris Neto
Mestre
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Reid, Joan A. "A Pathway to Child Sex Trafficking in Prostitution: The Impact of Strain and Risk-Inflating Responses." Scholar Commons, 2010. https://scholarcommons.usf.edu/etd/1747.
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Victims of child sex trafficking in prostitution in the United States are often overlooked, misidentified, and among the most underserved type of child victim of crime. The majority of previous research on child sex trafficking has been conducted without a theoretical framework or reliable sampling methods. In this study, a schematic composed of a series of stepping-stones from childhood abuse to prostitution, which has been described by gendered pathways researchers, served as a sensitizing template for the study's development of a strain-reactive pathway into child sex trafficking. Agnew's general strain theory provided the primary theoretical basis for the proposed pathway, supplying both explanations of the generative factors of the pathway and the mechanisms operating within the life trajectory terminating in child sex trafficking in prostitution. Based on this theoretical framework, this study utilized structural equation modeling to examine the pathway by investigating the effects of caregiver strain, child maltreatment, and risk-inflating responses to strain on vulnerability to victimization in child sex trafficking in prostitution. Four structural equation models, incorporating different forms of child maltreatment, were assessed using data from a matched sample of 174 minority females who were residents of one U.S. city and participated in a longitudinal study on the effects of child sexual abuse. Findings show that the occurrence of child maltreatment including child neglect, child physical abuse, and juvenile sexual victimization increased with caregiver strain. Consequentially, neglected and abused children were more likely to have engaged in the risk-inflating responses of running away and earlier initiation of drug or alcohol use, and they also reported higher levels of relational shame. Both running away and early initiation of substance use impacted vulnerability to victimization in child sex trafficking in prostitution. Lastly, implications of the findings related to protection and intervention strategies that are projected to obstruct the progression of minors along the analytically identified pathway into child sex trafficking in prostitution are presented for criminal justice professionals, child protection investigators, and social service providers.
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Rabelo, LÃvia. "O impacto de polÃticas monetÃrias na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e variabilidade de preÃos relativos: evidÃncia empÃrica para o Brasil de 1995 a 2012." Universidade Federal do CearÃ, 2013. http://www.teses.ufc.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=11649.
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CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel SuperiorA avaliaÃÃo dos efeitos da inflaÃÃo na Variabilidade de PreÃos Relativos (VPR) à uma fonte de subsÃdios aos formuladores de polÃtica econÃmica no que se refere à tomada de aÃÃes preventivas contra possÃveis pressÃes inflacionÃrias, minimizando os custos em termos de variaÃÃo do produto e do emprego. Dessa forma, este trabalho visa verificar empiricamente o impacto da adoÃÃo de metas para inflaÃÃo (MI) na relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR na economia brasileira, durante o perÃodo de 1995 a 2012. Seguindo evidÃncias da literatura, foram estimados modelos onde tal relaÃÃo assume a forma linear com quebras estruturais e a forma quadrÃtica a fim de testar qual deles melhor se ajusta aos dados brasileiros. Baseado em Bai e Perron (1998, 2003), os modelos de regressÃo foram estimados tratando as datas de quebras como variÃveis desconhecidas, obtidas endogenamente, em julho de 1998 e novembro de 2002. Para o perÃodo analisado os resultados nÃo corroboram as evidÃncias do formato de U da relaÃÃo entre inflaÃÃo e VPR, sendo que o efeito marginal da inflaÃÃo sobre a VPR à positivo, embora sua magnitude seja reduzida apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas e ainda mais apÃs o ganho de credibilidade referente ao cumprimento das mesmas. Adicionalmente observou-se que a relaÃÃo entre a inflaÃÃo esperada e a VPR se enfraqueceu apÃs a adoÃÃo das metas, enquanto a inflaÃÃo nÃo esperada somente se tornou significativa a partir da adoÃÃo desta polÃtica.
The assessment of the inflation effects on the Relative Price Variability (RPV) is a source of subsidies for economic policymakers when it comes to taking preventive measures against possible inflationary pressures, thus minimizing the costs in terms of product variation and employment. Once exposed that, this work aims to empirically investigate the effects of inflation targeting (IT) adoption on the relationship between inflation and RPV in the Brazilian economy from 1995 to 2012. Based on the literature, two models were estimated in order to test which one best fits in the Brazilian data. In the first one, the relationship takes the linear shape, while in the other it is U-shaped. Following Bai and Perron (1998, 2003), the regression models were estimated treating the dates of breaks as unknown variable, which were endogenously obtained in July of 1998 and November of 2002. In the period analyzed, the results do not corroborate the evidence of the U-shaped relation between inflation and RPV, once the marginal effect of inflation on the RPV is positive, although its magnitude is reduced after the adopting of IT and even more after the adoption of measures that gave credibility to comply with them. Additionally it was observed that the expected inflation had its effect reduced on RPV after the IT adoption, while the unexpected inflation only becomes significant after the adoption of this policy.
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Ozen, Emine Ozgu. "Exchange Rate Pass-through Into Domestic Price Indicators: A Sectoral Analysis Of Turkish Economy." Master's thesis, METU, 2011. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12613962/index.pdf.
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The question of exchange rate pass-through into domestic inflation is a widely analyzed issue due to its importance as regards to monetary policy, exchange rate policy and in general macroeconomic policy for open economies. Although most of the literature is focused on the exchange rate pass-through at the aggregate level, there are fewer studies that are done at the sectoral level for the Turkish economy. In this study by using a distribution chain of pricing model developed by McCarthy (2000), pass-through of exchange rates and import prices into domestic prices for selected sectors are examined for the Turkish economy. The emprical model estimates a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) to see pass-through dynamics through times and across the selected sectors. This study covers March 2002-December 2010 periodthe period of floating exchange rates. Findings indicate that pass-through has fallen recently in Turkey. Moreover, results of the analysis show that external factors explain an important proportion of the variance of domestic prices for the sectors which have a larger import share.
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SILVA, Wanderl?ia das Gra?as. "Uma an?lise cr?tica do Plano Real, do controle do processo inflacion?rio e do seu impacto na economia brasileira." Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, 2004. https://tede.ufrrj.br/jspui/handle/tede/1029.
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Previous issue date: 2004-08-31This work was developed with the objective to analyze, ahead of the implantation of plus a plan of economic stability, the possibilities of the control of the Brazilian inflationary process. To understand these possibilities, one searched to after make a historical trajectory of the process the second half of the decade of 1980, emphasizing, superficially, the considered plans of stabilization before the implantation of the Real Plan, with objective to badly demonstrate to which the procedure of the economic plans in relation to one that it devastates the country. Working in this recital, it had an aiming of the present work in the errors and rightnesss of these plans, attempting against itself only to the inertial component, diagnosised as cause of the inflation in the period in analysis. Working in this recital, the three phases that had been primordial for the implantation of the Real Plan, had contributed for the aiming of the present work. The analysis of these two periods, of the 80 phase and second half decade of the Real Plan, had detached the importance of if getting the objective initially considered by this last one. In chapter III, it is demonstrated, superficially, some of the impacts in the Brazilian economy.
Este trabalho foi desenvolvido com o objetivo de analisar, diante da implanta??o de mais um plano de estabilidade econ?mica, as possibilidades do controle do processo inflacion?rio brasileiro. Para entender essas possibilidades, buscou-se fazer uma trajet?ria hist?rica do processo ap?s a segunda metade da d?cada de 1980, enfatizando, superficialmente, os planos de estabiliza??o propostos antes da implanta??o do Plano Real, com objetivo de demonstrar qual o procedimento dos planos econ?micos em rela??o a um mal que assola o pa?s. Trabalhando nesta fundamenta??o, houve um direcionamento do presente trabalho nos erros e acertos destes planos, atentando-se apenas ao componente inercial, diagnosticado como causa da infla??o no per?odo em an?lise. Trabalhando nesta fundamenta??o, as tr?s fases que foram primordiais para a implanta??o do Plano Real, contribu?ram para o direcionamento do presente trabalho. A an?lise destes dois per?odos, segunda metade da d?cada de 80 e fases do Plano Real, destacaram a import?ncia de se obter o objetivo inicialmente proposto por este ?ltimo. No cap?tulo III, s?o demonstrados, superficialmente, alguns dos impactos na economia brasileira.
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Yeung, Kwong. "Perception of teacher emotional support and parental education level : the impacts on students’ math performance." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/8607.
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There is a paucity of research juxtaposing parental education level and teacher emotional support in a single study which examines their relative impacts on students’ academic achievements. Therefore, the first objective of this dissertation is to study the influence of parental education level, in comparison to the influence of teacher emotional support, on students’ math performance, by using more representative data and a rigorous statistical method. The second objective is to identify and examine how some important psychological traits (both affective and cognitive) mediate the effects of social factors on students’ math performance. The third objective is to examine whether those relationships are moderated by gender. Hong Kong’s survey data is extracted from the Program of International Students Assessment (2003) as organized by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), on the math performances of 4,478 students at the age of fifteen. Measurement invariance was first tested, and then followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis. Two structural models were tested by Structural Equation Modeling using Linear Structural Relations (LISREL) 8.5 which is computer software for SEM. Results indicated that first, parental education level affects children’s math scores by providing home education resources and enhancing children’s math self-efficacy, and second the Self Determination Theory is applicable in supporting the hypothesis that teachers affects their students’ math scores by providing a cooperative learning environment, which in turn, enhances students’ affective and cognitive factors. Three important mediators, namely cooperative learning environment, math self-efficacy, and home education resources are concluded as significant mediating factors upon the effects of parents and teachers on students’ math performance. The perceived support from parents and teachers are not significantly different across gender in Hong Kong. This is consistent with recent studies that differences favoring males in mathematics achievement are disappearing. Theoretical contributions and practical implications are discussed in the final part of the dissertation.
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Carrara, Aniela Fagundes. "Choques de oferta e política monetária na economia brasileira: Uma análise do impacto dos preços das commodities na inflação entre 2002 e 2014." Universidade de São Paulo, 2016. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/11/11132/tde-10052016-184543/.
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Há mais de uma década o controle dos níveis de preço na economia brasileira é realizado dentro do escopo do Regime de Metas de Inflação, que utiliza modelos macroeconômicos como instrumentos para guiar as tomadas de decisões sobre política monetária. Após um período de relativo êxito (2006 - 2009), nos últimos anos apesar dos esforços das autoridades monetárias na aplicação das políticas de contenção da inflação, seguindo os mandamentos do regime de metas, esta tem se mostrado resistente, provocando um debate em torno de fatores que podem estar ocasionando tal comportamento. Na literatura internacional, alguns trabalhos têm creditado aos choques de oferta, especialmente aos desencadeados pela variação dos preços das commodities, uma participação significativa na inflação, principalmente em economias onde os produtos primários figuram como maioria na pauta exportadora. Na literatura nacional, já existem alguns trabalhos que apontam nesta mesma direção. Sendo assim, buscou-se, como objetivo principal para o presente estudo, avaliar como os choques de oferta, mais especificamente os choques originados pelos preços das commodities, têm impactado na inflação brasileira e como e com que eficiência a política monetária do país tem reagido. Para tanto, foi estimado um modelo semiestrutural contendo uma curva de Phillips, uma curva IS e duas versões da Função de Reação do Banco Central, de modo a verificar como as decisões de política monetária são tomadas. O método de estimação empregado foi o de Autorregressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro (VEC) na sua versão estrutural, que permite uma avaliação dinâmica das relações de interdependência entre as variáveis do modelo proposto. Por meio da estimação da curva de Phillips foi possível observar que os choques de oferta, tanto das commodities como da produtividade do trabalho e do câmbio, não impactam a inflação imediatamente, porém sua relevância é crescente ao longo do tempo chegando a prevalecer sobre o efeito autorregressivo (indexação) verificado. Estes choques também se apresentaram importantes para o comportamento da expectativa de inflação, produzindo assim, uma indicação de que seus impactos tendem a se espalhar pelos demais setores da economia. Através dos resultados da curva IS constatou-se a forte inter-relação entre o hiato do produto e a taxa de juros, o que indica que a política monetária, por meio da fixação de tal taxa, influencia fortemente a demanda agregada. Já por meio da estimação da primeira função de reação, foi possível perceber que há uma relação contemporânea relevante entre o desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta e a taxa Selic, ao passo que a relação contemporânea do hiato do produto sobre a taxa Selic se mostrou pequena. Por fim, os resultados obtidos com a segunda função de reação, confirmaram que as autoridades monetárias reagem mais fortemente aos sinais inflacionários da economia do que às movimentações que acontecem na atividade econômica e mostraram que uma elevação nos preços das commodities, em si, não provoca diretamente um aumento na taxa básica de juros da economia.For more than a decade the control of price levels in the Brazilian economy is conducted within the scope of the regime of inflation targets, which utilizes macroeconomic models as tools to guide decision-making on monetary policy. After a period of relative success (2006 - 2009), in recent years, despite the efforts of monetary authorities in the application of inflation containment policies, following the commandments of the targeting regime, this has proven resilient, causing a debate about factors that may be causing this behavior. In the international literature, some studies have credited to supply shocks, especially those triggered by the change in commodity prices, a significant participation in inflation, especially in economies where the commodities are a large part of export basket. In the Brazilian literature, there are already some studies pointing in the same direction. Therefore, it sought to the main objective of this study to evaluate how supply shocks, more specifically the shocks originated by commodity prices have impacted on Brazilian inflation and how and how efficiently monetary policy of the country has reacted. To this purpose, it estimated a semiestrutural model containing a Phillips curve, an IS curve and two versions of the central bank\'s reaction function, so check how monetary policy decisions are taken. The estimation method used was the Vector autoregression with Error Correction (VEC) in its structural version, which allows a dynamic assessment of interdependence between the variables of the model. By estimating the Phillips curve it was observed that the supply shocks, both commodity as labor productivity and the exchange rate, do not impact inflation immediately, but its relevance is growing over time getting to prevail over the effect autoregressive (index) checked. These shocks also performed important to the inflation expectations, a possible indication that supply shocks may spread over other economic sectors. Through the results of the IS curve noted the strong inter-relationship between the output gap and the interest rate, which indicates that monetary policy, by setting interest rates, strongly influences aggregate demand. Through the estimation of the A reaction function, it was revealed that there is a relevant contemporary relationship between the deviation of expected inflation from the target and the Selic rate, while the contemporary relationship of the output gap over the Selic was proved to be small. Finally, the results obtained with the B reaction function, confirmed that the monetary authorities react more strongly to inflationary signs of the economy than the movements that happen in economic activities and showed that a rise in commodity prices does not lead directly an increase in basic interest rate of the economy.
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Elias, Ibañez Sebastian. "Impacto de los precios banda establecidos por el Fondo de Estabilización de los precios de los combustibles derivados del petróleo en el PBI, inflación y deuda pública en el Perú." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/628232.
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El documento busca analizar el posible impacto del Fondo de Estabilización de los Precios de los Combustibles derivados del petróleo (FEPC) en variables macroeconómicas de interés, como el PBI, la inflación y la Deuda Pública. El punto fundamental del análisis es debido a la inestabilidad que generan las volatilidades de los precios internacionales del petróleo en economías dependientes del recurso, como la es el Perú. Además, de identificar si las herramientas de estabilización, como lo es el fondo, son ejecutadas de manera eficiente sin generar efectos adversos que puedan perjudicar otras aspectos de la economía.
En el documento se encontraron evidencias empíricas sobre la finalidad de la estabilización de precios en diversos aspectos, así como el nacimiento de la necesidad de estos dependiendo de la situación del país frente a los recursos extractivos. Se hizo uso de un modelo de vectores de autocorrección (VAR), para estimar el efecto que poseen los diversos tipos de combustibles, haciendo uso de los precios internacionales y los establecidos por el FEPC.
Se usaron datos mensuales para realizar la estimación, del periodo 2008-2018 y fueron extraídos del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú y del Organismo Supervisor de la Inversión en Energía y Minería. La síntesis de la investigación indico que el FEPC cumple con su función principal de ejecutar una estabilización de los precios de los combustibles, suavizando los choques externos a la economía peruana; sin embargo, se requieren realizar modificaciones en el fondo debido a efectos colaterales que lo hacen insostenible en el tiempo.The developed document examines the impact of the Stabilization Fund for the prices of petroleum-derived fuels (FEPC, in Spanish) in macroeconomic variables of interest, such as GDP, inflation and public debt. The main reason for this study is due for the instability generated by volatilities in international oil prices in resource dependent economies, such as Peru. In addition, to identify if the stabilization tools, such as the fund, are executed efficiently without generating adverse effects that could harm other aspects of the economy. The document found empirical evidence on the purpose of price stabilization in various aspects, as well as the birth of their need depending on the country's situation with respect to extractive resources. A model of autocorrect vectors (VAR) was used to estimate the effect of various types of fuels, using international prices and those established by the FEPC. Monthly data were used to make the estimate, for the period 2008-2018 and were extracted from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Supervisory Agency for Investment in Energy and Mining. The synthesis of the investigation indicated that the FEPC fulfills its main function of executing a stabilization of fuel prices, softening external shocks to the Peruvian economy, however, modifications to the fund are required due to collateral effects that they make it unsustainable over time.
Trabajo de investigación
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Ono, Gustavo Shoji. "Análise do impacto dos preços das commodities sobre a inflação no Brasil." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/11509.
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The literature shows that a commodity price increase will have a lower effect in the inflation rates of the economies that depend majorly on the exports of commodities. In these economies a commodity price increase will appreciate its exchange rate, and as a consequence will relieve the effect over the local inflation. Therefore, an econometric model was developed to assess the net effect of a commodity price increase in the inflation in Brazil. Although the results show a positive impact of the commodities prices in the inflation, this same impact is reduced after a given period. The reduction of this effect on inflation may have the appreciation of the local currency as one of its causes.
A literatura mostra que os países cujas economias dependem das exportações de commodities possuem um menor repasse de uma alta do preço das commodities sobre a inflação. Este menor repasse aos preços ocorre uma vez que o aumento do preço das commodities gera uma apreciação do câmbio local, que por consequência, alivia o efeito sobre a inflação. Portanto, foi estimado um modelo econométrico para verificar o efeito líquido de uma alta do preço das commodities sobre a inflação no Brasil. Os resultados mostram que um aumento do preço das commodities gera um impacto líquido positivo sobre a inflação no Brasil, embora este impacto seja reduzido após um dado período. A redução deste impacto pode ter como uma das causas o efeito da apreciação do câmbio sobre a inflação.
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Votta, Tiago Boischio. "Os impactos da volatilidade cambial nas exportações brasileiras de soja para a China." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12139/tde-30112017-163441/.
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Seguindo a literatura mais recente sobre o tema, a presente dissertação teve por objetivo aferir as elasticidades da função de oferta brasileira de exportação de soja para a china à variabilidade da taxa de câmbio. Sob o viés que a alta inflação brasileira gera nas variáveis independentes, mais de um recorte para a instrumentalização dos diferentes determinantes foi considerado no design de pesquisa. Este adotoua cointegração por meio da abordagem do teste de Fronteiras de Pesaranpara a especificação concomitante de modelos ARDL(12,12,12,12) e ARDL (8,8,8,8,8) com doze ou oito trimestres-safra defasados, para o período compreendendo o primeiro trimestre de 1999 ao segundo de 2016. A busca por evidências para relações de longo prazo das exportações em toneladas de soja do Brasil para a China se deu em termos dos valores passados destas, bem como dos valores atuais e passados dos preços relativos, da demanda chinesa e da volatilidade cambial. A partir dos resultados destas projeções, o raciocínio sobre a influência da volatilidade cambial sobre as exportações de soja brasileira indica que esta, de fato, é positiva no longo prazo.Já no curto prazo são encontrados efeitos negativos. Assim, o aumento do risco pode diminuiras exportações dentro de um mesmo ano-safra, mas seu impacto é fundamentalmente positivo para o sojicultor. Dessa forma, como preconizado por Schultz (1980) os sojicultores são empreendedores que não são avessos ao risco. Pelo contrário, eles são entusiastas do risco, não apenas por este ser parte importante de suas decisões de investimento e financiamento, mas também porque a volatilidade maior aumenta a utilidade em exportar do sojicultor.The objective of this dissertation was to assess the elasticity of Brazilian soybean exports to China in terms of the variability - or risk - of the exchange rate. In order to consider the bias of inflation volatility on the assessment of the independent variables, more than one methodology to calculate the different regressors was used. Projections were made using Pesaran´sbounds testapproach to cointegration, through the concomitant specification of ARDL (12,12,12,12) and ARDL(8,8,8,8,8) models consisting of up to twelve or eight lagged quarters- aggregated to the crop calendar- for the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the second quarter of 2016. Elasticity estimations from this approach allowed a search for long-run forcing influence between the regressors and Brazil\'s soybean exports, in terms of past values- in tons- of these, as well as current and past values of relative prices, Chinese demand and exchange rate volatility measures. The results of these projections indicate that an increase in risk has indeed a positiveeffect in the long term, while within the crop-year the effects are found to be negative. Thus, an increase in volatility may decrease exports in the short term, but its impact is fundamentally positive to the soy farmer. Thus, as advocated by Schultz (1980), soybean farmers are entrepreneurs who are not risk averse. On the contrary, they are risk enthusiasts, not only because the bulk of their investment decisions are subject to uncertainty, but also because an increase in volatility increases the utility that a soybean farmer extracts from exports.
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SOUZA, Wellington Rodrigues Silva. "Impacto da aus??ncia da corre????o monet??ria na caracter??stica qualitativa de comparabilidade da informa????o: um estudo aplicado ??s empresas brasileiras de siderurgia e metalurgia listadas na BM&FBovespa." FECAP, 2016. http://tede.fecap.br:8080/jspui/handle/jspui/705.
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This research has provided a discussion about the impacts on qualitative characteristics of comparability of information resulting from the lack of monetary correction of financial statements in the current Brazilian economic scenario. In face of that, the monetary correction of balance sheet was applied in the financial statements of Brazilian companies included in the subsector of steel and metallurgy that are listed on BM&FBOVESPA, from 2009 to 2014. It was calculated the comparability ratio between different companies and between different periods of the same company both at historical values and at adjusted for inflation values, considering the net profit, return on equity (ROE) and the economic value added (EVA??), which are important performance ratio used by investors as users of accounting information. Hypotheses were made for each variable in order to verify the differences of comparability between the adjusted information and the historical information. Those hypotheses were tested through the application of Student???s T-test, assuming as the null hypothesis the equality between the comparability of adjusted ratio and historical ratio, so the test???s role is indicate its acceptance or rejection. Moreover, it was calculated and analysed the percentage change between the comparability ratio considering inflationary effects and the comparability ratio without those effects. The results of hypothesis tests have shown comparability between different companies for all variables. In another hand, the results of the time axis tests have shown comparable differences for the ROE, with no statistical evidence of differences in comparability between periods for net income and for EVA??. However, the percentage change of the adjusted ratio of temporal comparability compared to historical ratio for those variables has shown significant impacts on the companies, which should not be neglected. This discovery corroborates the importance of the monetary correction of financial statements.
Este estudo promoveu uma discuss??o sobre os impactos causados ?? caracter??stica qualitativa de comparabilidade da informa????o decorrentes da aus??ncia da corre????o monet??ria das demonstra????es cont??beis no atual contexto econ??mico brasileiro. Para tanto, aplicou-se ??s demonstra????es financeiras das empresas brasileiras do subsetor de ???siderurgia e metalurgia??? listadas na BM&FBOVESPA, no per??odo de 2009 a 2014, a sistem??tica de corre????o monet??ria de balan??os (CMB). Foram calculados ??ndices de comparabilidade entre diferentes empresas e entre per??odos da mesma empresa tanto a valores hist??ricos quanto a valores monetariamente corrigidos, considerando-se as vari??veis lucro l??quido, retorno sobre o patrim??nio l??quido (ROE) e valor econ??mico agregado (EVA??), importantes indicadores de performance utilizados pelos investidores enquanto usu??rios da informa????o. Formularam-se hip??teses para cada uma destas vari??veis buscando-se verificar a exist??ncia de diferen??as de comparabilidade entre as informa????es corrigidas e as informa????es hist??ricas. Estas hip??teses foram testadas por meio da aplica????o do teste t de Student, pressupondo-se como hip??tese nula a igualdade entre os ??ndices de comparabilidade corrigidos e os ??ndices hist??ricos, cabendo ao teste indicar sua aceita????o ou rejei????o. Ademais, foram calculadas e analisadas as varia????es percentuais entre os ??ndices de comparabilidade com os efeitos inflacion??rios e os ??ndices isentos destes efeitos. Os resultados dos testes de hip??teses evidenciaram diferen??as de comparabilidade entre empresas para todas as vari??veis. J?? os resultados dos testes relativos ao eixo temporal apontaram diferen??as de comparabilidade para a vari??vel ROE, n??o havendo evid??ncia estat??stica de diferen??as na comparabilidade entre per??odos para o lucro l??quido e EVA??. No entanto, as varia????es percentuais dos ??ndices corrigidos de comparabilidade temporal em rela????o aos ??ndices hist??ricos para estas vari??veis revelaram impactos relevantes para parte das empresas, os quais n??o devem ser desprezados. Os achados da pesquisa corroboram com a import??ncia da corre????o monet??ria das demonstra????es financeiras.
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Lemarchand, Nadège. "Impacts of cosmic inhomogeneities on the CMB : primordial perturbations in two-field bouncing cosmologies and cosmic magnetism in late-time structures Secondary CMB anisotropies from magnetized haloes I. Power spectra of the Faraday rotation angle and conversion rate." Thesis, Université Paris-Saclay (ComUE), 2019. http://www.theses.fr/2019SACLS510.
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Le Fond Diffus Cosmologique (FDC) est une sonde cosmologique clé mettant des contraintes étroites sur le modèle CDM de l’Univers. Emis 380000 ans après le big bang, il montre de petites anisotropies en température et en polarisation qui tracent les inhomogénéités cosmiques à différentes époques de l’Univers. D’une part, les anisotropies primaires donnent accès à l’inflation durant laquelle les perturbations primordiales sont générées. D’autre part, les anisotropies secondaires tracent les inhomogénéités dans l’Univers récent, qui ont évolué en grandes structures sous l’action de la gravité, à partir des inhomogénéités primordiales. Ainsi les anisotropies du CMB sont une sonde puissante à la fois de l’origine des inhomogénéités dans l’Univers très jeune, et de leur état évolué dans l’Univers récent. Cette thèse porte sur deux aspects des inhomogénéités: d’abord leur production dans une extension du scénario inflationnaire, puis la prédiction de l’impact des champs magnétiques des grandes structures sur les anisotropies secondaires polarisées du FDC.Malgré ses succès, l’inflation ne résout pas le problème de la singularité initiale du big bang, où la gravité pourrait être quantique. En Cosmologie Quantique à Boucles (CQB), cette singularité est remplacée par un rebond quantique. La CQB à un champ avec potentiel quadratique a déjà été étudiée et prédit une phase d’inflation suivant le rebond. Les perturbations primordiales ne sont plus seulement produites pendant l’inflation, mais aussi pendant le rebond et la contraction le précédant. Ici, j’ai considéré une extension à deux champs de la CQB avec un champ massif comme inflaton, et un champ sans masse servant d’horloge interne. J’ai d’abord étudié l’évolution globale de l’Univers de manière analytique et numérique, montrant que loin dans la contraction, le champ massif domine le contenu énergétique. J’ai aussi vérifié que l’inflation reste probable, malgré la présence du champ sans masse. Puis, j’ai examiné la production de perturbations: contrairement au cas à un champ, en plus de la composante adiabatique standard, elles sont ici décrites par une composante isocourbe, caractéristique des modèles multi-champs et pour laquelle Planck a mis des limites supérieures. Loin dans la contraction, ces deux composantes sont hautement couplées. J’ai montré comment fixer leurs conditions initiales en utilisant des variables combinant les deux types de perturbations, rendant le couplage sous-dominant. Il reste maintenant à les propager à travers le rebond jusqu’à la fin de l’inflation pour obtenir leurs spectres de puissance (croisé), à comparer ensuite aux contraintes observationnelles.Depuis son émission, le FDC a voyagé à travers les grandes structures avant de nous atteindre. Son interaction avec les structures engendre des anisotropies secondaires, comme celles dues à l’effet SZ dans les amas. Des plasmas magnétisés ont été observés dans les galaxies et les grandes structures. Cela devrait engendrer de la Rotation Faraday (RF) de la polarisation linéaire primordiale, transformant des modes E en B, et de la Conversion Faraday (CF) de la polarisation linéaire en circulaire. J’ai revisité ces sources d’anisotropies en calculant les spectres de puissance angulaires de l’angle de RF et du taux de CF par les grandes structures. J’ai utilisé le modèle de halo en me focalisant sur l’impact des projections des champs magnétiques. Les spectres piquent à des multipoles 104 et sont proportionnels à 83, en supposant un champ magnétique indépendant de la masse du halo. Cette dépendance est cependant dégénérée avec celle qui existe entre les champs magnétiques et la masse des halos. Puis, je détaille le calcul des spectres de puissance angulaires totaux des anisotropies polarisées, à partir de ceux de la RF et de la CF. Enfin, je montre comment reconstruire les champs de RF et de CF à partir du FDC en adaptant les estimateurs développés pour la reconstruction du lentillage gravitationnelThe Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is a key cosmological probe, that sets tight constraints on the CDM model of the Universe. Released 380000 years after the big bang, it exhibits tiny anisotropies in temperature and polarisation which trace the cosmic inhomogeneities at different epochs of the Universe. On the one hand, primary anisotropies give access to inflation, during which the primordial perturbations are generated. On the other hand, secondary anisotropies trace inhomogeneities in the recent Universe, which have evolved into large scale structures through gravity, starting from the primordial ones. Hence CMB anisotropies are a powerful probe of both the origin of inhomogeneities in the very early Universe, and their evolved state in the late-time Universe. This thesis deals with two aspects of inhomogeneities by first considering their production in an extension of the inflationary scenario, and second by predicting the impact of magnetic fields in large scale structures on the secondary CMB polarised anisotropies.Despite its successes, inflation does not solve the initial big bang singularity issue, where gravity might need to be quantised. In Loop Quantum Cosmology (LQC), this singularity is replaced by a quantum bounce. Single field LQC with quadratic potential has already been studied and predicts an inflation phase following the bounce. Then, primordial inhomogeneities are not only produced during inflation, but also during the bounce and the contraction preceding it. Here, I considered a multifield extension of LQC with two fields: a massive one as being the inflaton, and a massless one used as an internal clock. I first studied the background evolution of the Universe both analytically and numerically. I showed that far in the contraction, the massive field dominates the energy budget. I have also checked that inflation remains likely to happen, despite the presence of the massless field. Secondly, I investigated how perturbations are produced. Unlike the one-field case, they are now described by an isocurvature component in addition to the standard adiabatic one, the former being characteristic of multifield models, for which Planck has put upper limits. In the remote past of the contraction, these two kinds of perturbations are highly coupled. I showed how to set their initial conditions by using appropriate variables mixing both kinds of perturbations, making the coupling subdominant. These perturbations remain to be propagated through the bounce down to the end of inflation to get their primordial (cross)spectra, to be subsequently compared to observational constraints.Since its released, the CMB traveled through large scale structures before reaching us. This leads to secondary anisotropies by its interaction with these structures, like e.g. gravitational deflection or the SZ effect in clusters. Magnetic fields have been observed in galaxies and larger structures. Since these structures are also filled with free electrons, this should lead to the Faraday Rotation (FR) effect which rotates the primordial linear polarisation, turning E into B modes, and to the Faraday Conversion (FC) effect which converts linear into circular polarisation. I revisited these sources of secondary anisotropies by computing the angular power spectra of the FR angle and the FC rate by large-scale structures. I used the halo model paying special attention to the impact of magnetic field projections. I found angular power spectra peaking at multipoles 104. Assuming a mass-independent magnetic field, the angular power spectra scale with the amplitude of matter perturbations as 83. This scaling is however degenerated with the one of the magnetic field with halos’ mass. I finally detail how to compute the full angular power spectra of polarised anisotropies, starting from the FR and FC power spectra. I also show how to reconstruct the FR and FC fields from the CMB adapting the estimators developed for lensing reconstruction
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Sheefeni, Johannes Peyavali Sheefeni. "The impact of Namibia’s currency peg on its domestic inflation." Thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/3408.
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Magister Economicae - MEconThis study analyses the impact of Namibia’s currency peg on its domestic inflation. This is because theoretical argument suggests that currency peg (fixed exchange rate) provides nominal anchor for domestic price level, in particular when the domestic currency is pegged to a stable foreign currency. Following the method of hypothesis testing, data on Namibia and South Africa are used in this regard. Three main findings emerged from this study. Firstly, it was shown that the two inflation rates are positively correlated.Secondly, the study shows that there is no statistical significance difference between the inflation rates of the two countries. This gives an indication that the currency peg served as a nominal anchor, because as the SA inflation rate came down, so did the Namibian inflation rate. Thirdly, the study also shows that the growth of money stock in Namibia does not deviate from the growth of money stock in SA. This gives an indication that the authorities have maintained the peg through control of monetary growth.
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Shilongo, Fillemon. "An econometric analysis of the impact of imports on inflation in Namibia." Diss., 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/26869.
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This study investigated the impact of import prices on inflation in Namibia, using quarterly time series data over the period 1998Q2-2017Q4. The variables used in the study are inflation rate, M2, real GDP and import prices. The study found that all the variables are integrated of order one (1), and upon testing for cointegration using Johansen test, there was no cointegration. Therefore, the model was analysed using ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques of vector autoregression (VAR) approach, granger causality test and the impulse response function. The results of the study revealed that import prices granger causes inflation at 1% level of significance. Inflation is also granger caused by real GDP and broad money supply (M2) does not Granger cause inflation. The study further revealed that the shocks to import prices are significant in explaining variation in inflation both in the short run and in the long term.Economics
M. Com. (Economics)
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Nguyen, Doan-Huy, and 阮尹輝. "THE IMPACT OF INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION ON VIETNAM’S STOCK RETURNS." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/06201062520133799145.
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碩士朝陽科技大學
財務金融系碩士班
101
This study finds the relationship among inflation, interest and stock returns are not only found in the long-run. In the short-run, the EGARCH-M (1, 1) model with break is applied for testing the effect of inflation and interest rate on Vietnam’s stock returns during the period of 2001-2011. The empirical results show that the changes in the inflation rate result in changes of interest rates, then affect the stock prices. Within asymmetric framework, it is found that the higher interest rate leads to the lower return of stock in the current month and vice versa in the month preceding. The inflation rates of the month preceding have the positive impact on both stock returns and interest rates. This result is consistent with theory saying that the inflation does not directly affect the stock market. More over this study proves the channel which inflation indirectly affects the stock returns – interest rate. Any signal of high inflation or high interest rate – referred to as “bad new” that cause the drop of the stock returns is also main finding of this study. JEL classification codes: C22, L85, P44.
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Covalenco, Valeri. "The impact of IMF financial aid on economic growth and inflation." Master's thesis, 2017. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-267712.
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The International Monetary Fund was created to promote financial stability, global monetary cooperation, high employment, international trade and sustainable economic growth. Together with the World Bank, IMF has a "monopoly" on offering loan programs for countries in deep crises or for development projects. In this thesis, we examine the effect of IMF, i.e. loan size and quotas, on the economic growth and inflation rate, by applying a dynamic panel regression on our dataset. In addition, we look at how the IMF Quotas influence the size of the loans. Our empirical results display significant evidence that IMF loans influence the GDP growth in a positive manner, in the medium term. Both Control of Corruption and Voice & Accountability have a negative influence on the economic growth. In other words, less corruption and stronger civil rights will halt the growth level of the economy. We also determined that IMF Quotas is not a robust indicator of the loan size. It is only driven by the past loan levels. Regarding Inflation determinants, IMF loans are not affecting the Inflation in a significant manner, while FDI and Control of Corruption - do. FDI exercises a positive influence on the CPI, while perception of less corruption has a negative effect on Inflation rate. JEL Classification D73, E31, F12,...
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Nchor, Dennis. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Mix and its Impact on the Goal of Single Digit Inflation with Inflation Targeting in Ghana." Master's thesis, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-89339.
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Khumalo, M. J. "The impact of inflation on stock prices in South Africa / M.J Khumalo." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10394/15672.
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The study is based on the time series analysis of stock prices in South Africa. It
uses the data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2010Q4 to test the effect of
inflation on stock prices. The analysis is done using Auto-Regressive
Distributed Lag Model (ARDL). First, we investigate time series properties of
data. The unit root test results reveal stock prices (SP), interest rate (IR),
economic growth (GOP) and real effective exchange rate (EXCR) are integrated
of order zero -1(0), while the growth of money supply (MS) and inflation were
found to contain unit root. The Augumented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the
Philips-Perron (PP) tests were used to test for unit root. Causality test suggests
that causation runs from inflation to stock prices. Cointegration test shows that
there is cointegration and as such, Error Correction Model (EC) is done to
establish short-run and long-run dynamics. The study shows that inflation does
contribute negatively to stock prices.Thesis (MBA) North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, 2011
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Tavares, Francisco De Azevedo Coutinho Pinto. "Inflation heterogeneity and its impact on inequality: evidence from the United States." Master's thesis, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/121898.
Full textAbstract:
Aggregate inflation measures such as the Consumer Price Index seek to capture the im-pact on households consumption possibilities of changes in prices over time and are generally assumed as representative of all consumers. This is only true if households have all the same consumption patterns. Based on household level microdata, we construct specific household baskets of consumption and calculate the inflation for each one. By comparing Plutocratic and Democratic indexes, and inflation between groups of income, we conclude that households experienced different inflation rates, with the poorer suffering more with the loss in the purchasing power. The potential impacts of these findings on Fiscal and Monetary Policy show that around 1.77 million households could be paying federal income taxes when they should not; Social Security benefits could be up to 9.70% higher for some households; Federal Funds Rates would be 0.8 percentage points higher, based on a Taylor type rule, if FED used a Democratic core inflation index.
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Doyle, Matthew Stephen. "The impact of learning and information dynamics on optimal policy." Thesis, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/12945.
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The goal of this dissertation is to analyze issues that arise when policy makers try
to learn about the economy while their policies are affecting it. The dissertation takes
the form of three essays.
The first essay examines how optimal policy affects equiUbrium economic outcomes
in environments in which agents are both imperfectly informed about the state of the
economy and able to learn by observing the actions of others. This type of environment,
in which there is social learning, has received growing attention, but to date there has
been little examination of strategic policy making in such settings. In particular, the
question of whether policy, in the absence of a commitment technology, can be designed
to increase the speed of information revelation remains open. The essay builds on a
real options model of investment and shows how this framework can be extended to
derive time consistent policies and the related equilibrium outcomes in social learning
environments. By comparing the equilibrium induced by a policy maker to both the
laissez-faire outcome and the social optimum, it is shown that the policy maker is able
to achieve the second best outcome and reduce delay to the efficient level even in the
absence of commitment.
The second essay raises the question of whether the fact that policy makers play
a dual role, as both information gatherers and economic managers, can explain the
flattening of the Phillips Curve relationship between inflation and real activity that
has been observed in both Canada and the U.S. over the 1990s. The paper models
the central bank as both a provider of liquidity in a world where pre-set prices would
otherwise cause potential gains from trade to go unrealized and a gatherer of information
about real developments in the economy. The bank's information complements that of
private agents so that, the central bank and private agents both wish to learn from the
other. In equilibrium, this interaction gives rise to a Phillips curve relationship which
both exhibits causality running from real activity to prices and justifies a feedback from
prices to the setting of monetary instruments. The model implies that a decline in the
slope of the Phillips curve may be a result of improvements in the manner in which
central banks gather information about the economy. An investigation of the data for
Canada and the U.S. finds support for the model.
The third essay attempts a more thorough empirical investigation of the issues raised
in the previous chapter. The paper enriches the dynamic aspects of the model to further
examine its properties, but focuses mainly on attempting to uncover whether the types
of changes to the Phillips curve relationship which had been previously documented in
Canada and the U.S. have occurred in other OECD countries. The paper investigates this
question using both single country and panel estimation and finds that the phenomenon
of a declining slope in the Phillips curve relationship is prevalent in OECD countries
throughout the 1980s and 1990s. Finally, the paper attempts to exploit the cross country
data to provide more formal tests of the model's predictions regarding policy innovations
and inflation targeting regimes. The results suggest that the model compares favourably
to other potential explanations of the decline in the slope of the Phillips curve.
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Mallick, Arundhati. "An Evaluation of Core Inflation Dynamics and Its Impact on Macroeconomic Performance in India." Thesis, 2017. http://ethesis.nitrkl.ac.in/8662/1/2017_PhD_512HS1009_ArundhatiMallick.pdf.
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The term ‘core inflation’ got popularised when central banks of some countries’ like, Australia, Finland, Canada, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom shifted their focus to inflation targeting. These seven countries broke the tradition of exchange rate and multiple objectives of monetary policy frameworks and adopted one single objective of inflation targeting. Failure of other monetary policy regimes leads to adoption of this new monetary framework of inflation targeting. The monetary targeting framework failed in mid-1980 because of unstable demand for money function and the fixed exchange rate regime also collapsed in the early 1990’s. Canada and New Zealand are the first to adopt inflation targeting framework to improve the inflationary scenario of the economy later five other countries adopt inflation targeting, whereas their level of inflation was already comparatively low. These seven countries had a very poor record of fighting with high level of inflation for past 30 years before adopting inflation targeting framework. But after adopting inflation targeting, these countries have the record of both low inflation and monetary policy credibility. The main motives behind adopting inflation targeting or following core inflation are a low and stable inflation is a needed base for economic growth, and better macroeconomic performance. However, manipulating monetary policy in short period to achieve the goal of higher output or employment may create a conflict with price stability. Inflation targeting or maintaining a low and stable inflation can be possible if central banks follow a specific measure like core inflation.
Inflation in India is a serious and chronic problem because production depends on monsoon in agriculture sector, poor infrastructure facilities for transport of food items to the market and lack of proper storing facilities and energy import. The government has also historically heavily borrowed to finance its spending which leads to a high level of inflation due to high fiscal deficit. These are the main reasons of high inflation in India. The annual CPI from 1960 to 2016 has averaged at 7.6% in 16 of those years; CPI has been in double digits and above 6% in 35 of 56 years. Even in the post 1991 reform era, CPI has averaged above 6% for 17 of 25 years. India has been following the multiple objectives approach to conduct monetary policy. Recently, it has shifted to inflation targeting monetary policy framework. However, India is ready to adopt inflation targeting approach. Under inflation targeting approach, India has to focus on a single objective to maintain low inflation. To do this, it will focus on core inflation by ignoring supply side problem of inflation but for India supply side problem is more serious problem due to its poor infrastructure and tradition practice of farming. From the above reasons India adopted a flexible inflation targeting approach. That is, it adopted inflation targeting approach for short period of time from 5th August 2016 to March 31st 2021 and the level of inflation to be maintained is also flexible. This is good for making central bank of India for more accountable, transparent and improves the credibility of monetary policy.
To estimate core inflation, it is not justifiable to exclude food and fuel items from the price index. Every time all the food items are not volatile. Blindly excluding these items to get core inflation is not justified. So, our study tries to find out an alternative measure of core inflation suitable for Indian economy. Other than finding an alternative measure of core inflation, the study also focuses what the other factors are contributing to India’s inflation role of asset price and external shocks in India’s inflation. A shock from world economy and fluctuations in asset price also affectsthe headline inflation. Hence, we need to find out volatility of these factors which has long term or short term impact on headline inflation. Short run impact form these fluctuations can be excluded while measuring core inflation. It is ensuring that the monetary policy of India needs to focus on core inflation. Other than the above problems, one of the major reasons to focus on core inflation is that, RBI as an authority to control monetary policy, other than targeting inflation, it also focuses on the growth rate. It has to manage the trade-off between growth rate and inflation rate. Ultimate and important motive of an economy is to achieve economic growth. Final aim of this study is to find out how above discussed factors are contributing to economic growth and macroeconomic performance of India.
To empirically analyse the study, we have used some simple statistical tools and some econometric techniques. Our first objective is to analyse the existing measures of core inflation for India and to check the dynamic relationship between headline and core inflation. To analyse this,in statistical approach, we have used the simple statistical tools like mean, standard deviation, covariance etc. and for model based approach we have used the econometrics technique like Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR). After getting all the series of core inflation, we try to find out the existing dynamic relation headline inflation and core inflation. We have used Vector Error Correction (VECM) Model to identify this dynamic relation. Our second objective is to find out the domestic and imported core inflation for India. Volatility in food prices are not the only reason, which creates short run or temporary fluctuations in the price index. Sometimes price of various commodities directly or indirectly get affected by changes in the world economy. To analyse this, first we separated goods of price index in to two categories i.e. tradable and non-tradable goods. Tradable goods are mostly associated with world economy and fluctuations in the world economy leads to affect the domestic economy through these goods and non-tradable goods purely represent the fluctuations in the domestic economy. In the first objective the study, we use WPI to represent the inflation but WPI does not include non-tradable goods or service sectors in the index, for this reason we use CPI instead of WPI to represent the inflation of the Indian economy. First, we categorise CPI index into two different sectors i.e. tradable and non-tradable goods, then we try to find out how fluctuations in the world economy transmitted to domestic economy through tradable goods by using Vector Auto-regression (VAR)model. The third objective of the study is to find out the role of asset in Indian inflation. Our main motive of this study is to identify all the possible sources that contribute to Indian inflation. To identify the role of asset price in Indian inflation, first we have added asset price into the commodity basket by assigning weightage to it. To assign weightage to the asset prices in commodity baskets, we use Neo-Edgeworthian Index. Finally, after assigning weights we use Kalman filter to estimate the forecasted inflation from both headline series of inflation and also from the inflation series including asset prices. Final and last objective of this study is to find out whether targeting core inflation really improving the macroeconomic performance of India or not. The ultimate objective of every country is to achieve economic growth and a stable economy. After identifying all the possible factors that are contributing to Indian inflation then, the study aims to find whether adopting inflation targeting framework improves macroeconomic performance of the country or not. To empirically analyse this we use Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We have also applied Impulse Response Function (IRF) to know how macroeconomic variables respond to any changes in core inflation.
As a result, we find that SVAR is a good measure to estimate core inflation but practically using it is difficult. But if we will see practical applicability of the measures then trimmed mean measure is better one. The study also finds that trimmed mean measure is performing better than the other two measure of core inflation. The study compares the performance of core inflation estimated from both the WPI and combined CPI but the result shows that trimmed mean measure of core inflation estimated from combined CPI outperform than trimmed mean measure of core inflation estimated from WPI inflation. While analysing the dynamic relationship between headline and core inflation, our result supports the findings of the previous studies that the speed and direction of adjustment between headline and core inflation depends on the different monetary regime. Any unexpected changes in the monetary policy affect consumer behaviour and also price level before consumers start considering rational expectation. In case of India we see that trimmed mean measure is giving better result than non-food manufacturing product measure and also holding the definition of core inflation. External shocks have an immediate effect on tradable inflation as it directly associates with external economy, while it takes time to affect the non-tradable inflation, as it affects the non-tradable sectors in the second round effect. Core inflation is estimated by excluding volatile goods from the consumption basket, but this volatility of the commodities may not be due to its nature of the commodity, rather be because of external shocks. Excluding these commodities does not fully extract the temporary fluctuations; there may be an existence of second round effect of external shocks in the core inflation. We also find that considering gold as commodity of consumption basket helps in predicting better level of inflation. But here the problem is that, asset prices are highly fluctuating; they are more volatile than the items in normal consumption baskets of individuals. So, we cannot react to all the movements of asset prices. If any movements in asset prices signals any inflationary or deflationary situation then, only monetary policy must react to asset price movements. That means we have to find out the misalignments of asset prices. After identifying all the possible factors that are contributing to Indian inflation we aim to find the impact of four different measures of core inflation on the macroeconomic performance of India. Except non-tradable inflation all other three measures of inflation highly affect the REER. In case of net trade also only CPI with gold is highly affecting the net trade. In response to the shock to all the measure of core inflation IIP reacts in a cyclical manner. Call money rate is also highly responsive to the shock of trim core inflation and CPI with gold.
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Santos-García, Tomás de los. "The distributive impact of inflation through price, income, and employment effects a case study of Mexico /." 1988. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/22269826.html.
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Abdala, Manuel Angel. "Distributional impact evaluation of divestiture in a high inflation economy the case of ENTel Argentina /." 1992. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/27372674.html.
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