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Kifani, Souad. "Approche spatio-temporelle des relations hydroclimat-dynamique des espèces pélagiques en région d'upwelling : cas de la sardine du stock central marocain." Brest, 1991. http://www.theses.fr/1991BRES2005.
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L'impact des variations climatiques (à moyen et à long termes) sur la dynamique de la sardine du stock central marocain est abordé selon deux démarches: empirique et comparative. L'analyse des réactions de la sardine a la dynamique spatio-temporelle de l'upwelling sur une échelle de temps interannuelle, a permis de mettre en évidence deux modalités d'action de l'environnement sur les rendements sardiniers: 1) sur le recrutement et 2) sur la saturabilité du stock. La variabilité du recrutement est abordée en considérant la densité du stock et l'état concomitant de l'upwelling. Un modèle stock-recrutement (ricker) est modifié afin de prendre en compte ces deux paramètres. Les variations spatio-temporelles de l'upwelling induisent des modifications dans la répartition de la sardine. Une augmentation de la capture par unité d'effort n'est pas obligatoirement liée a un accroissement de l'abondance du stock mais davantage à la concentration du poisson dans des zones favorables. La dynamique du stock sardinier sur le long terme est envisagée selon une approche comparative des variations à long terme des captures de sardines peuplant des écosystèmes géographiquement éloignes mais caractérises par une instabilité environnementale. Ceci a permis d'avancer certaines hypothèses tentant d'une part, de replacer le contexte hydro climatique de l'atlantique marocain dans un cadre climatique plus global et, d'autre part, d'expliquer les changements spécifiques observes dans les captures marocaines par des effets climatiques à long terme ayant induit des modifications dans l'écosystème d'upwelling de cette région
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Rouyer-Denimal, Louis. "Compréhension des interactions entre l'hydroclimat du Nord-Est du Brésil et l'Atlantique tropical de l'Ouest au cours des derniers 300 000 ans par une approche multi-traceurs organiques." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2023. http://www.theses.fr/2023SORUS468.
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La Terre est un système complexe aux multiples interactions et le lieu de vie d’innombrables espèces vivantes. Dès lors, de nombreux travaux ont permis depuis des décennies, d’améliorer notre compréhension du climat de la Terre. Toutefois de nombreuses zones d’ombre restent aujourd’hui inexplorées. La région du Nord-Est (NE) du Brésil et de l’Atlantique tropical de l’Ouest est à ce jour relativement peu étudiée. Pourtant, l’hydroclimat singulier du NE Brésil et le rôle de l’Atlantique tropical de l’Ouest dans le transport interhémisphérique de chaleur font de cette région une zone importante d’un point de vue climatique. Parmi les traceurs couramment employés pour reconstruire les paléoenvironnements, les biomarqueurs lipidiques sont de précieux supports d’information. De nombreuses propriétés environnementales telles que la température de l’océan, la composition du couvert de végétation ou les conditions hydroclimatiques peuvent être reconstruites à partir de l’abondance, de la distribution ou de la composition isotopique de ces molécules. Ce projet de thèse vise à reconstruire les variations hydroclimatiques passées dans la région de l’extrême NE du Brésil, en relation avec la circulation de surface de l’Atlantique tropical de l’Ouest par la caractérisation du matériel organique d’une carotte de sédiments marins prélevée sur la marge brésilienne qui couvre les derniers 305 000 ans. L’analyse de la matière organique (MO) aux échelles totale et moléculaire a, dans un premier temps, permis de caractériser les sources de MO et notamment la composition des végétations actuelles dans la région d’étude. Ensuite, les températures océaniques de surface et de subsurface, qui ont respectivement été reconstruites à partir de la distribution des alcénones à longues chaînes et des alkyl tétraéthers de glycérols isopréniques, mettent en lumière des réchauffements d’ampleur en subsurface lors des trois dernières déglaciations. L’action conjointe du ralentissement de la circulation océanique et de l’intensification de l’Agulhas Leakage pendant ces périodes est proposée pour expliquer le réchauffement de l’Atlantique tropical de l’Ouest. Enfin, les variations passées du couvert de végétation au NE Brésil, déduites des propriétés des n-alcanes à longues chaînes, sont apparues étroitement liées aux changements hydroclimatiques. La température de surface de l’Atlantique tropical et l’intensité des vents des alizés semblent jouer un rôle majeur dans le contrôle des variations passées de végétation et de l’hydroclimat du Nord-Est du Brésil. En résumé, ce travail a notamment permis d’une part de mieux comprendre le rôle de l’Atlantique tropical en tant que réservoir de chaleur pendant les déglaciations et d’autre part de mieux contraindre les influences contrôlant les variations hydroclimatiques passées au Nord-Est du BrésilThe Earth is a complex system with many interactions and is also home to countless species. Consequently, extensive research has enhanced our comprehension of the Earth's climate over the past few decades. Nonetheless, numerous areas remain unexplored. The North-East (NE) region of Brazil and the western tropical Atlantic have received limited attention so far. The distinctive hydroclimate of northeastern Brazil and the contribution of the tropical western Atlantic to interhemispheric heat transfer make these regions climatologically important. Lipid biomarkers are among the frequently utilized proxys for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions, and they provide valuable insights. Numerous environmental factors, including ocean temperature, vegetation composition, and hydroclimate conditions, can be deduced from the abundance, distribution, and isotopic composition of these compounds. The objective of this thesis project is to reconstruct previous hydroclimatic fluctuations in the extreme northeastern area of Brazil, associated with surface circulation in the western tropical Atlantic. This task will be achieved through the characterisation of organic material obtained from a marine sediment core sampled from the Brazilian margin spanning the last 305, 000 years. The characterization of organic matter (OM) at both total and molecular level was employed to identify the sources of OM and, specifically, the composition of the modern vegetation within the study area. Moreover, the reconstruction of surface and subsurface ocean temperatures respectively from the distribution of long-chain alkenones and isoprenoid glycerol alkyl tetraethers highlighted significant subsurface warmings over the last three deglaciations. The cause of the warming of the tropical western Atlantic during these periods is suggested to be the combined effect of reduced ocean circulation and increased intensity of the Agulhas Leakage. Finally, the study has found a close relationship between hydroclimatic changes and past variations in vegetation cover in northeastern Brazil, as inferred from long-chain n-alkanes properties. This relationship is largely influenced by the upper ocean temperature of the tropical Atlantic and the intensity of South-East trade winds. The present study allowed us to better understand the role of the tropical Atlantic as a heat reservoir during deglaciations and to better constrain the influences controlling past hydroclimatic variations in northeastern Brazil
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Rowe, Scott Thomas. "The predictability of Iowa's hydroclimate through analog forecasts." Thesis, University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/1390.
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Iowa has long been affected by periods characterized by extreme drought and flood. In 2008, Cedar Rapids, Iowa was devastated by a record flood with damages around $3 billion. Several years later, Iowa was affected by severe drought in 2012, causing upwards of $30 billion in damages and losses across the United States. These climatic regimes can quickly transition from one regime to another, as was observed in the June 2013 major floods to the late summer 2013 severe drought across eastern Iowa. Though it is not possible to prevent a natural disaster from occurring, we explore how predictable these events are by using forecast models and analogs.
Iowa's climate records are analyzed from 1950 to 2012 to determine if there are specific surface and upper-air pressure patterns linked to climate regimes (i.e., cold/hot and dry/wet conditions for a given month). We found that opposing climate regimes in Iowa have reversed anomalies in certain geographical regions of the northern hemisphere. These defined patterns and waves suggested to us that it could be possible to forecast extreme temperature and precipitation periods over Iowa if given a skillful forecast system. We examined the CMC, COLA, and GFDL models within the National Multi-Model Ensemble suite to create analog forecasts based on either surface or upper-air pressure forecasts. The verification results show that some analogs have predictability skill at the 0.5-month lead time exceeding random chance, but our overall confidence in the analog forecasts is not high enough to allow us to issue statewide categorical temperature and precipitation climate forecasts.
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Schiemann, Reinhard. "Forcing and variability of the hydroclimate in Central Asia /." Zürich : ETH, 2007. http://e-collection.ethbib.ethz.ch/show?type=diss&nr=17426.
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Hartmann, Holly Chris. "Stakeholder driven research in a hydroclimatic context." Diss., FIND on the Web, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191254.
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Wi, Sungwook. "Impact of Climate Change on Hydroclimatic Variables." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/265344.
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The conventional approach to the frequency analysis of extreme rainfall is complicated by non-stationarity resulting from climate change. In this study significant trends in extreme rainfall are detected using statistical trend tests (Mann-Kendall test and t-test) for all over the Korean Peninsula. The violation of the stationarity for 1 hour annual maximum series is detected for large part of the area especially for southwestern and northeastern regions. For stations showing non-stationarity, the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution model with a location parameter in the form of linear function of time makes significant improvement in modeling rainfall extremes when compared to the stationary GEV model. The Bartlett-Lewis rainfall model is used to generate annual maximum series for the purpose of generating the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curve. Using 100 sets of 50 year synthetic annual maxima, it is found that the observed annual rainfall maximum series are reasonably represented by the model. The observed data is perturbed by change factors to incorporate the climate change scenario from the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) regional climate model into IDF estimates. The IDF curves for the future period 2040-2079 show highest estimates for all return periods and rainfall durations. The future IDF estimates show significant difference from the IDF estimates of the historical period (1968-2000). Overall, IDF curves show an increasing tendency over time. A historical and future climate simulation is evaluated over the Colorado River Basin using a 111-year simulation (1969-2079) of the WRF climate change scenario. We find the future projections show statistically significant increases in temperature with larger increases in the northern part of the basin. There are statistically insignificant increases in precipitation, while snowfall shows a statistically significant decrease throughout the period in all but the highest elevations and latitudes. The strongest decrease in snowfall is seen at high elevations in the southern part of the basin and low elevations in the northern part of the basin.
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Canon, Barriga Julio Eduardo. "Downscaling Climate and Vegetation Variability Associated with Global Climate Signals: a new Statistical Approach Applied to the Colorado River Basin." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/195379.
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This research presents a new multivariate statistical approach to downscale hydroclimatic variables associated with global climate signals, from low-resolution Global Climate Models (GCMs) to high-resolution grids that are appropriate for regional and local hydrologic analysis. The approach uses Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) to: 1) evaluate significant variation modes among global climate signals and spatially distributed hydroclimatic variables within certain spatial domain; 2) downscale the GCMs' projections of the hydroclimatic variables using these significant modes of variation and 3) extend the results to other correlated variables in the space domain. The approach is applied to the Colorado River Basin to determine common oscillations among observed precipitation and temperature patterns in the basin and the global climate signals El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These common oscillations serve as a basis to perform the downscaling of ENSO-related precipitation and temperature projections from GCMs, using a new gap-filling algorithm based on MSSA. The analysis of spatial and temporal correlations between observed precipitation, temperature and vegetation activity (represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) is used to extend the downscaling of precipitation to vegetation responses in ten ecoregions within the basin. Results show significant common oscillations of five and 15-year between ENSO, PDO and annual precipitation in the basin, with wetter years during common ENSO and PDO positive phases and dryer years during common negative phases. Precipitation also shows an increase in variability in the last 20 years of record. Highly correlated responses between seasonally detrended NDVI and precipitation were also identified in each ecoregion, with distinctive delays in vegetation response ranging from one month in the southern deserts (in the fringe of the monsoon precipitation regime), to two months in the mid latitudes and three months to the north, affected by seasonal precipitation. These results were used to downscale precipitation and temperature from two GCMs that perform well in the basin and have a distinctive ENSO-like signal (MPI-ECHAM5 and UKMO-HADCM3) and to extend the downscaling to estimate vegetation responses based on their significant correlations with precipitation.
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Sobreiro, João Francisco Ferreira. "Vegetation multitemporal responses to hydroclimate variations in the Espinhaço Range (Brazil) /." Rio Claro, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11449/183096.
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Orientador: Thiago Sanna Freire SilvaResumo: Os sistemas montanhosos são laboratórios naturais para análise de gradientes. Elevação, amplitude e diferenças topográficas em montanhas podem criar fortes diferenças microclimáticas a curtas distâncias, aninhadas dentro da mesma região biogeográfica e macroclimática, permitindo-nos compreender melhor as respostas da vegetação e os feedbacks sobre a disponibilidade de água. Neste estudo, avaliamos como a distribuição da vegetação está ligada à disponibilidade de água na Serra do Espinhaço. Para tanto, abordamos as seguintes questões: 1) Quais são os regimes hidroclimáticos encontrados na Serra do Espinhaço e seus correspondentes tipos de vegetação? 2) Onde a produtividade da vegetação é mais e / ou menos acoplada aos regimes hidroclimáticos? 3) A topografia é capaz de impactar a produtividade da vegetação e suas relações de acoplamento com regimes hidroclimáticos? Além disso, considerando estas relações ambientais e de vegetação, 4) Como a resiliência climática dos tipos de vegetação nesta região varia? Conclui-se que na faixa do Espinhaço, a maior parte da dinâmica de produtividade da vegetação espaço-temporal é impulsionada por condições hidroclimáticas e / ou topo-edáficas. Nossos resultados mostram que a vegetação da Caatinga teve uma resposta plástica e relativamente rápida ao Déficit Hídrico Climático (CWD) e foi o tipo de vegetação com maior restrição hídrica. Cerrado e Campos Rupestres tiveram respostas semelhantes às flutuações no déficit hídrico, mostrando um gradie... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo)
Abstract: Montane systems are natural laboratories for gradient analysis. Elevation, amplitude and topographical differences over mountains can create strong microclimatic differences over short distances, nested within the same biogeographic and macro-climatic region, thus allowing us to better understand vegetation responses and feedbacks to water availability. In this study, we assessed how vegetation distribution is linked to water availability in the Espinhaço Mountain Range. For that, we addressed the following questions: 1) Which are the hydroclimatic regimes found in the Espinhaço Range and their corresponding vegetation types? 2) Where does vegetation productivity is more and/or less coupled to hydroclimatic regimes? 3) Is topography able to impact vegetation productivity and its coupling relations to hydroclimatic regimes? Also, considering these environmental and vegetation relationships, 4) How does the climatic resilience of the vegetation types in this region vary? We conclude that in the Espinhaço Range, most of the spatio-temporal vegetation productivity dynamics are driven by hydroclimatic and/or topo-edaphic conditions. Our results show that “Caatinga” vegetation had a plastic and relatively fast response to Climatic Water Deficit (CWD) and was the most water-constrained vegetation type. “Cerrado” and “Campos Rupestres” had similar responses to fluctuations in water deficit, showing a gradient of slower to faster responses from “Humid” to “Very dry” hydroclimatic regi... (Complete abstract click electronic access below)
Mestre
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Sivapalan, Vinothan S. "Vegetation, Hydroclimate, and Fire Dynamics from the Late Illinois Glaciation (130 ka) to the Late Holocene." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1595850302778246.
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Hu, Kexiang. "Understanding Australia’s groundwater spatio-temporal variability in relation to its hydroclimate-hydrogeology." Thesis, Curtin University, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/89138.
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Groundwater is a highly dependent water resource in Australia, yet it is not well understood, leading to different issues from one region to another. Currently, there are four major concerns about Australia’s groundwater; (i) groundwater decline, (ii) necessity of groundwater for agricultural expansion, (iii) data deficiency, and (iv), unclear groundwater recharge threshold conditions. To address these concerns, this thesis, therefore, aims to understand Australia’s spatio-temporal groundwater variation from a hydroclimatic and hydrogeological perspective.
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Fallah, Hassanabadi Bijan [Verfasser]. "Modelling the Asian Paleo-hydroclimatic Variability / Bijan Fallah Hassanabadi." Berlin : Freie Universität Berlin, 2015. http://d-nb.info/1072072971/34.
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Hegyi, Bradley Michael. "Dynamical and thermodynamical influences of the tropics and midlatitudes on arctic hydroclimate variability." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/53869.
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The Arctic is an important component of the Earth’s climate system, and it is a region dynamically coupled to climate phenomena at lower latitudes, through both atmospheric and oceanic paths. The coupling has significant effects on the hydroclimate variability in the Arctic, including effects on sea ice and Arctic precipitation. In this dissertation, we explore the coupling of the lower latitudes and the Arctic hydroclimate through atmospheric mechanisms with dynamical and thermodynamical components, with a focus on the following examples of variability: i) the decadal variability of boreal winter Arctic precipitation, ii) the variability of the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex in boreal winter, and iii) the initial melt of Arctic sea ice in late boreal spring. The goal of the research is to understand what drives the Arctic hydroclimate variability in each of these examples through improved knowledge of the mechanisms linking them to the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes.
In the first part of the analysis, we explore the mechanisms responsible for the decadal variability of boreal winter Arctic precipitation. We find that the decadal variability of cool-season Arctic precipitation is at least partly connected to decadal modulation of tropical central Pacific sea surface temperatures related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The modulation can be described as the oscillation between periods favoring central and eastern Pacific warming events [CPW and EPW, respectively], which are two common types of ENSO variability. By analyzing a collection of CPW and EPW events in reanalysis data, we establish the following connecting mechanism. First, the increase of central Pacific SSTs drive a Rossby wave train that destructively interferes with the zonal wavenumber 1 component of the background extratropical planetary wave in the subpolar region. Next, as a result of this interference, the magnitude of the vertical Rossby wave propagation from the troposphere to the stratosphere decreases and the stratospheric polar vortex strengthens. Finally, the strengthening of the vortex translates into a tendency towards a positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the troposphere and a poleward shift of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude storm tracks, increasing moisture transport from lower latitudes and increasing total Arctic precipitation.
In a further investigation of a crucial component of the above mechanism, the initial response of the stratospheric polar vortex to the influence of CPW and EPW is investigated. A 20-member ensemble run of an idealized model experiment in the NCAR Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is conducted with prescribed CPW and EPW pattern SST anomalies. Both CPW and EPW events weaken the polar vortex in the ensemble mean. The weakening is mainly tied to changes in the eddy-driven mean meridional circulation, with some contribution from eddy momentum flux convergence. There is a significant spread between ensemble members with identical CPW and EPW forcing, where a few of the ensemble members exhibit a weak strengthening response. The initial conditions of the extratropical atmosphere and subsequent internal variability after the introduction of the CPW and EPW forcing help drive the spread in response between individual members.
In the last part of the analysis, using MERRA reanalysis data, the means by which atmospheric eddies affect the trend and variability of the initial melt of Arctic sea ice are explored. We focus specifically on the effects of lower troposphere (i.e. 1000-500 mb average) meridional heat transport by atmospheric eddies, a dynamical component of the atmospheric eddy mechanism, and eddy-generated surface downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation anomalies, a thermodynamical component. Although in a climatological sense, atmospheric eddies in all major frequency bands transport heat poleward into the Arctic, we find that the lower-troposphere eddy meridional heat transport does not contribute to the trend of an earlier initial melt date. However, eddy heat transport still plays an important role in the initialization of individual episodes of initial melt with large areal coverage. In the investigation of two specific episodes, the meridional heat transport term that represents the interaction between the eddy wind and mean temperature fields (i.e. the product of the meridional eddy wind and the mean temperature fields) is most associated with the initial melt in both episodes. Additionally, melt in one of the episodes is also associated with surface downwelling longwave and shortwave radiation anomalies, a result of eddy-generated cloud cover anomalies. Therefore, in individual melt events, the combination of direct eddy meridional heat transport and surface longwave and eddy-driven shortwave radiation anomalies may significantly contribute to the initial melt of Arctic sea ice. This combination may be especially important in episodes where significant initial melt occurs over a large area and over a period of a few days.
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Griffiths, Michael L., Alena K. Kimbrough, Michael K. Gagan, Russell N. Drysdale, Julia E. Cole, Kathleen R. Johnson, Jian-Xin Zhao, Benjamin I. Cook, John C. Hellstrom, and Wahyoe S. Hantoro. "Western Pacific hydroclimate linked to global climate variability over the past two millennia." NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/617210.
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Interdecadal modes of tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation have a strong influence on global temperature, yet the extent to which these phenomena influence global climate on multicentury timescales is still poorly known. Here we present a 2,000-year, multiproxy reconstruction of western Pacific hydroclimate from two speleothem records for southeastern Indonesia. The composite record shows pronounced shifts in monsoon rainfall that are antiphased with precipitation records for East Asia and the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. These meridional and zonal patterns are best explained by a poleward expansion of the Australasian Intertropical Convergence Zone and weakening of the Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) between similar to 1000 and 1500 CE Conversely, an equatorward contraction of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and strengthened PWC occurred between similar to 1500 and 1900 CE. Our findings, together with climate model simulations, highlight the likelihood that century-scale variations in tropical Pacific climate modes can significantly modulate radiatively forced shifts in global temperature.
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Rao, M. P., B. I. Cook, E. R. Cook, R. D. D'Arrigo, P. J. Krusic, K. J. Anchukaitis, A. N. LeGrande, et al. "European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennium." AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625048.
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Volcanic eruptions have global climate impacts, but their effect on the hydrologic cycle is poorly understood. We use a modified version of superposed epoch analysis, an eruption year list collated from multiple data sets, and seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions ( soil moisture, precipitation, geopotential heights, and temperature) to investigate volcanic forcing of spring and summer hydroclimate over Europe and the Mediterranean over the last millennium. In the western Mediterranean, wet conditions occur in the eruption year and the following 3 years. Conversely, northwestern Europe and the British Isles experience dry conditions in response to volcanic eruptions, with the largest moisture deficits in posteruption years 2 and 3. The precipitation response occurs primarily in late spring and early summer (April-July), a pattern that strongly resembles the negative phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Modulated by this mode of climate variability, eruptions force significant, widespread, and heterogeneous hydroclimate responses across Europe and the Mediterranean.
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Conlin, Molly R. "Soil hydroclimate, vegetation, and substrate controls on carbon flux in an Alaskan fen." Diss., Connect to online resource - MSU authorized users, 2008.
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Thesis (M.S.)--Michigan State University. Dept. of Plant Biology Ecology, Evolutionary Biology, and Behavior, 2008.The direct goal of this thesis is determine the effect of expermental soil climate manipulatoins on carbon fluxes in an Alaskan rich fen and to assess the indirect influence of substrate quality on carbon mineralizaton rates in peat--From abstract. Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on July 29, 2009) Includes bibliographical references. Also issued in print.
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Anchukaitis, Kevin J. "Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era." COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/626426.
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy–model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy–model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy–model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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Tomin, Marissa. "Hydroclimatic study of Plio-Pleistocene aquatic sites in Meade County, Kansas." Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2020. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1596743720058214.
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Wrigley, Rosemarie H. "Hydroclimatic variations of the early-to-mid holocene in southwest Iran." Thesis, California State University, Long Beach, 2015. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1599197.
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A ∼2500 year record of hydrologic change from southern Iran is inferred from the mineralogy and stable isotopic composition of bulk and biogenic carbonates archived in Lake Hirom (27º 57’N, 53º52’E). This change is related to regional variations in moisture and to the larger Indian Summer Monsoon circulation (ISM). During the early Holocene, increased summer insolation from ~10,000 to 8,000 yr BP contributed to the intensification of the ISM. This intensification may have increased summer precipitation north of the modern ISM limit. Evidence of wetter lake conditions in Lake Hirom occur from 8,800 to 7,800 yr BP. Drier conditions occur and persist from 7,800 to 6,300 yr BP, until lacustrine marl changes to peat, indicating maximum aridity. The timing of the drying trend in the mid-Holocene of Lake Hirom correlates with cave and lake records in the Arabian Peninsula, and lake records in northern Iran, indicating a regional drying event.
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Ward, Brittany Marie. "Reconstruction of Holocene coupling between the South America Monsoon System and local moisture variability from speleothem δ¹⁸O and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr records:." Thesis, Boston College, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:108373.
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Thesis advisor: Corinne I. WongInvestigating controls on past variability of South American hydroclimate is critical to assessing its response to future warming scenarios. δ¹⁸O records from South America offer insight into past variability of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The controls on precipitation δ¹⁸O values, however, can be decoupled from precipitation amount and thereby limit investigations of variability in local moisture conditions. Here we use a principle components analysis to assess the coherence of speleothem and lake core Holocene δ¹⁸O records in tropical South America to evaluate the extent to which δ¹⁸O variability reflects changes in SAMS intensity at different sites across the region. The main mode of variability across Holocene δ¹⁸O records (PC1) closely tracks austral summertime insolation, consistent with existing work. PC1 is strongly expressed at sites towards the periphery of the continent, while variability at interior sites bear little similarity that implicates controls, in addition to monsoon intensity, on these δ¹⁸O records. Further, we develop speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr records spanning the Holocene from Tamboril Cave (Brazilian Highlands), Paraíso Cave (eastern Amazon Basin), Jaraguá Cave (Mato Grosso Plateau), and Botuverá Cave (Atlantic coastal plain) to investigate coupling between reconstructed monsoon variability and local moisture conditions. Speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr variability is interpreted as a proxy of local moisture conditions, reflecting the degree of water-rock interaction with the cave host rock as driven by variations in water residence time. Speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr records from all the sites, except Botuverá cave, do not co-vary with PC1, suggesting that local moisture conditions do not necessary follow variations in monsoon intensity at these interior sites. These speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr records, however, generally suggest dry mid-Holocene conditions, consistent with interpretations of other paleo-moisture records in the region. These results highlight that dynamics, in addition to SAMS variability, might influence δ¹⁸O variability as well as local moisture conditions at interior sites, and highlight the need for δ¹⁸O-independent reconstructions of moisture conditions
Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2018
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Earth and Environmental Sciences
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Weaver, Scott Jamie. "Variability of the great plains low-level jet large scale circulation context and hydroclimate impacts /." College Park, Md. : University of Maryland, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/6872.
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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.Thesis research directed by: Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Wortham, Barbara E. "Last millennium decoupling of the South American Summer Monsoon and local hydroclimate of central Brazil." Thesis, Boston College, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/bc-ir:106969.
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Thesis advisor: Corinne I. WongThe South American Monsoon System is the dominant convective system over tropical South America during austral summer that is critical to a region heavily dependent on agricultural and hydroelectric production. An understanding of the controls on moisture conditions throughout Brazil is critical to assessing recurrent droughts and global climate change responses. An increasing number of monsoon reconstructions from δ¹⁸O records provide insight into last millennium variation of regional monsoon intensity. However, the relationship between past variations in monsoon intensity and local moisture conditions has yet to be investigated. In this study, we develop speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values as a paleo-moisture proxy from a cave site located in central Brazil. Increasing speleothem ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr values and decreasing δ²³⁴U values over the last millennium indicate progressively wetter conditions. A similar trend in monsoon intensity is not evident in δ¹⁸O records from the region, suggesting that monsoon intensity is decoupled from the local moisture conditions through the late Holocene. The potential decoupling between the monsoon and local moisture conditions suggests that processes independent from those governing monsoon intensity may play a critical role in dictating moisture variability in the region
Thesis (MS) — Boston College, 2016
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Earth and Environmental Sciences
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Longandjo, Georges-Noel Tiersmondo. "The Hydroclimate Variability of Central Africa: seasonal cycle, mechanisms, teleconnections and impacts on neighbouring regions." Thesis, University of Cape Town, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/28440.
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Central Africa is, climatologically speaking, a poorly studied region (Clivar, 2000; Dezfuli and Nicholson, 2012; Nicholson and Dezfuli, 2012; Todd and Washington, 2004). It is considered as a knowledge gap in the understanding of the tropical climate system (Todd and Washington, 2004). Drivers of Central Africa rainfall are not well documented and deserve more attention. The aims of thesis are to enhance our fundamental understanding of Central Africa rainfall and the mechanisms involved in its seasonal and interannual variability as well as to assess how an atmospheric general circulation model forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST), the ECHAM5.3 model, does represent the main features of Central Africa hydroclimate variability. The seasonal cycle of Central Africa rainfall is primarily driven by change in the atmospheric low-pressure system of Central Africa landmass, water vapor and latent heat release rather than change of local temperature. From October to April, over Central Africa and its neighbouring regions, we highlight the existence in the mid-lower troposphere, between 1000 and 500 hPa of a dominant cyclonic and quasipermanent circulation pattern that drives the atmospheric large-scale circulation and its associated water vapor transports, namely the Central Africa Low. The Central Africa Low, with its variation strongly modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO), is characterized by strong convective activity due to an unstable atmosphere over central Africa, leading to high rainfall with less variance. Nevertheless, when the Central Africa Low prevails, Central Africa is a sink of water vapor, with the Indian Ocean as the main supplier. The weakening of the Central Africa Low, in May to September, is associated with the reversal of the water vapor transport at the northern boundary channel, leading Central Africa to become a source of moisture. During this season, both surrounding oceans are suppliers of moisture, with some additional contribution from the Congo basin rainforest. Central Africa rainfall variability is controlled by large-scale circulation variation, rather than variation in tropospheric water vapor. Year-round, the large-scale circulation is characterized by dominant easterly jets at middle (African easterly jets, AEJs) and upper (tropical easterly jets, TEJ) levels, owed by the Central Africa Low. At low-levels, there is a shallow zonal overturning circulation thermally direct, namely the Congo Basin Cell, driven by near-surface land-ocean thermal contrast between the warm central Africa landmass and the relatively cold Atlantic Ocean. The Congo Basin Cell, characterizes by eastward flow, persists year-round, with a maximum strength (-196.92±32.89 Sv) and width (30o degree) in August/September and minimum strength (-24.80± 17.83 Sv) and width (~6o degree) in May. The Congo Basin Cell does not play any crucial role in modulating Central Africa rainfall but it does regulate the rainfall distribution, through the seasonal position of the ITCZ. At midlevel, the atmospheric convective instability over Central Africa is controlled by the southward import of high moist static energy from the warmer Sahel associated with the AEJ over Central Africa. The saturation of the rising moist air at midlevel determines the location of high rainfall over central Africa year-round. Nevertheless, the absence of significant trend (- 0.013 mm per decade) of the Central Africa rainfall is associated with the weakening of the Central Africa Low in recent decades (1979 to 2015), consistent with Lau and Wu (2006). Further investigations on physical mechanisms affecting the Central Africa hydroclimate reveals that the Central Africa Low and land-ocean thermal contrasts are the main drivers of Central Africa rainfall variability at seasonal and interannual time scale, through the control of AEJs and the Congo Basin Cell strength and width. The analysis of ECHAM5.3 experiments provide a support to these mechanisms. Finally, to unravel what are the physical mechanisms shaping the rainfall anomalies patterns associated with the interannual variability of Central Africa rainfall, we found out that the Central Africa does reflect the regional-scale response of the atmosphere to the variation of the interbasin SST anomalies gradient (ΔSST) between tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Likely, the zonal contrast of central Africa rainfall is owed by the Central Africa Low, which separates central Africa in two distinct regions of opposite polarity by regulating the strength of the low-level westerly and mid-upper easterly jets and their associated water vapor transports. This east-west dipole-like pattern of Central Africa rainfall is similar to the second leading mode obtained by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis of rainfall anomalies during the long rainy season. Thus, during the positive phase of ΔSST, the Central Africa Low area change induces an anomalous clockwise zonal overturning cell over Central Africa, with ascending branch over Atlantic, indicative of deep convection leading to rainfall surplus, and sinking branch over Indian Ocean, indicative of subsistence, which suppress convection and lead to rainfall deficit, consistent with the mechanism proposed by Dezfuli et al. (2015). However, the impact of ΔSST on Central Africa rainfall variability is asymmetrical during positive and negative phases of ΔSST.
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Rasheed, Bilhuda. "Impact assessment of hydroclimatic change on water stress in the Indus Basin." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/86271.
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Thesis: S.M. in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, Technology and Policy Program, 2013.Title as it appears in the MIT degrees awarded program, September 19, 2013, page 10: Impact assessment of hydroclimatic change in the Indus Basin. Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 111-114).
Ninety percent of Pakistan's agricultural output is produced in fields irrigated by the Indus basin irrigation system, the world's largest network of canals, dams, barrages and tubewells. River flows, primarily fed by snow and glacial melt, are highly seasonal and fluctuate between intense floods and droughts. Built storage is relatively small, with withdrawals averaging at 70% of annual availability. Climate change, growth in sectoral water demands, and changes in water management infrastructure could have a profound impact on water stress in the coming decades. The interplay and contribution of these influences is explored using a model of the managed Indus River basin. To account for key hydro-climate shifts, I translate temperature rise and glacier cover scenarios into river runoff in 2050. I also project sectoral water demands to 2050. I then use an optimization model to estimate dam releases and project water stress to 2050. I find that climate change will cause decreases in peak river flows, but the changes in runoff will be comparable to current interannual variability. The most significant increase in water stress is caused by a scenario of 1-2.5°C warming and 1% annual glacial retreat. However, rises in demand have a greater impact on water stress than climate-induced changes in runoff which can be either positive or negative. The stabilization of global greenhouse gas emissions checks the rise in water demand and thus lowers future water stress. Effective adaptation options to an increase in water stress include building more storage capacity, relaxation of water allocation to allow inter-provincial water trading, and adaptation of the cropping calendar to the natural hydrological cycle.
by Bilhuda Rasheed.
S.M. in Technology and Policy
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McDonald, Dana Marie. "Hydroclimatic influences on suspended sediment delivery in a small, High Arctic catchment." Thesis, Kingston, Ont. : [s.n.], 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/720.
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González-Reyes, Álvaro, James McPhee, Duncan A. Christie, Quesne Carlos Le, Paul Szejner, Mariano H. Masiokas, Ricardo Villalba, Ariel A. Muñoz, and Sebastián Crespo. "Spatiotemporal Variations in Hydroclimate across the Mediterranean Andes (30°–37°S) since the Early Twentieth Century." AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/625182.
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In the Mediterranean Andes region '(MA; 30 degrees-37 degrees S), the main rivers are largely fed by melting snowpack and provide freshwater to around 10 million people on both sides of the Andes Mountains. Water resources in the MA are under pressure because of the extensive development of industrial agriculture and mining activities. This pressure is increasing as the region faces one of its worst recorded droughts. Previous studies have pointed to El Nioo-Southern Oscillation '(ENSO) as the main climatic force impacting the MA. However, the role of decadal and multidecadal climate variability, their spatial patterns, and the recurrence of long-term droughts remains poorly studied. In an attempt to better understand these factors, spatial and temporal patterns of hydroclimatic variability are analyzed using an extensive database of streamflow, precipitation, and snowpack covering the period between 1910 and 2011. These analyses are based on the combination of correlation, principal components, and kernel estimation techniques. Despite a general common pattern across the MA, the results presented here identify two hydroclimatic subregions, located north and south of 34 degrees S. While the interannual variability associated with ENSO is slightly stronger north of 34 degrees S, the variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation '(PDO) and/or the interdecadal Pacific oscillation '(IPO) index shows similar patterns in both regions. However, variations produced by the IPO forcing seem to be greater in the southern subregion since 1975. The estimations presented here on drought recurrence reveal a generalized increase in dry extremes since the 1950s. These findings suggest that the northern MA is more vulnerable to changes in hydrology and climate than the southern MA.
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Saris, Faize. "Hydroclimatic variability in northeast Turkey : identifying climate and river flow dynamics and controls." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2011. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/3074/.
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The East Black Sea (EBS) and the Çoruh River basins (ÇRB) of northeast Turkey have a number of challenging water related issues of socio-economic and ecological importance. This PhD thesis aims to understand hydroclimatological variability across Turkey taking a large-scale perspective by defining precipitation regimes and extremes and then focussing on the climatic and basin drivers of river flow variability in northeast Turkey. At the national-scale, Turkey exhibits six precipitation regime regions of which three characterise northeast region. The northeast and southwest coastal regions of Turkey are characterised by the highest frequency of extreme precipitation events. The mountainous area of the EBS is defined by May-June Peak river flow regime, while ÇRB is characterised by April-May Peak flow regime. Intra-annual variability in the timing of river flow over northeast Turkey is controlled mainly by the regional climatic variability. Spring rainfall peak is linked to snowmelt. Important changes are detected in temperature extremes, also in precipitation and river flow for some cases. Regional precipitation and temperatures for September-May period have an important influence on river flow extremes. Temperature variability across northeast Turkey is closely linked to seasonal indices of East-North Atlantic teleconnection patterns, especially during winter.
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Raúl, Sitoe Sandra. "Environmental history in southern Mozambique : Reconstruction of flooding events, hydroclimate and sea-level dynamics since mid-Holocene." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-148465.
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The aim of this thesis has been to reconstruct paleoenvironment, paleohydrology and paleoclimate in coastal southern Mozambique, with emphasis on tracing past flooding events on the lower Limpopo River floodplain. In order to extend flood chronologies beyond periods covered by instrumental data, sediments from lakes on the floodplain were studied (Lake Lungué, Coassane Oxbow, Lake Magandane and Lake Soane). Past sea-level variations and climate changes were deduced by analyzing sediments from coastal sites north of the floodplain area (Lake Chilau, Lake Nhauhache and Macassa Bay). To achieve the established objectives, a multi-proxy approach was applied on most of the retrieved sediment cores, involving analysis of mineral magnetic parameters, grain-size and organic carbon in combination with analysis of microfossils such as diatoms and/or phytoliths. Chronologies for the constructed time-series analysis were obtained by radiocarbon dating and age-depth modelling. The synthesized data from the sampled sites on the Limpopo River floodplain suggest that the area was affected by at least 16 flooding events of variable magnitudes during the studied period. These are dated to c. AD 940, 980, 1040, 1100, 1250, 1300, 1370, 1580, 1665, 1730, 1755, 1855, 1920, 1945, 1970 and 2000. In calibrated years BP these ages correspond to 1010, 970, 910, 850, 700, 650, 580, 370, 285, 220, 195, 95, 30, and 5 cal yrs BP. The two youngest are dated to 20 and 50 years AP (After Present being 1950). Proxy data further suggest that southern Africa was subject to two periods of sea-level highstands, at c. 5000–4200 BC (6950–6150 cal yrs BP) and AD 300–950 (1650–1000 cal yrs BP). The former represents the middle part of the postglacial climatic optimum. The wettest period in the Limpopo River floodplain was reported between AD 1360 and 1560 (590 and 390 cal yrs BP) in the Lake Lungué record, while Lake Chilau experienced wet conditions between AD 1200 and 1400 (750 and 550 cal yrs BP), then returning to drier conditions that prevailed until c. AD 1600. In Lake Nhauhache, however, drier conditions prevailed from c. AD 1200–1700 (750–250 cal yrs BP), shifting towards wetter at c. AD 1900 (50 cal yrs BP). The deviating signals between records can partly be explained by Lake Lungué basin being located on the Limpopo River floodplain, responding to flooding events associated with precipitation upstream the drainage area. Therefore, wet and dry periods in floodplain lakes (e.g. Lake Lungué) are not expected to correlate with precipitation changes on a local scale, as indicated by e.g. Lake Nhauhache. This is supported by a relatively weak agreement between Lake Lungué record and other nearby records (outside the floodplain), but a better correlation with records from the upper catchment, where a more regional climate signal is provided of the southern African summer rainfall region.Denna avhandling behandlar studier av paleomiljöer i södra Mozambique med fokus på översvämningshistorik i Limpopo-flodens nedre lopp. Tidsspannet är mitt- och sen-holocen och inkluderar även klimat och havsnivåvariationer. Följande analysmetoder har applicerats på ett flertal sedimentkärnor för att belysa ovanstående frågeställningar: mineralmagnetiska parameterar, kornstorlek, organiskt kol samt kiselmikrofossil (diatoméeter och fytoliter). Åldrar har bestämts med 14C-metoden. Analyserna visar att mineralmagnetiska parametrar är lämpliga för att identifiera översvämningar, speciellt magnetisk susceptibilitet och SIRM. Dessa parametrar visar på ett sediments magnetiska kornstorlerkar och koncentrationen av finkorniga magnetiska mineral. Även kornstorleksanalyser fungerade som ett bra komplement till dessa metoder. Sammantaget har ett minimum av 16 översvämningar registrerats i Limpopo/flodens nedre lopp under de senaste 1100 åren. Särskilt stora översvämningar har daterats till AD 1250 (700 kal år BP), AD 1370 (580 kal år BP), AD 1580 (370 kal år BP), AD 1855 (95 kal år BP), AD 1920 (30 kal år BP), AD 1970 (20 kal år AP) och AD 2000 (50 kal år AP), där AP betyder ”after present”, vilket är 1950. Mindre kraftiga översvämningar har daterats till AD 940 (1010 kal år BP), AD 980 (970 kal år BP), AD 1040 (910 kal år BP), AD 1100 (850 kal år BP), AD 1300 (650 kal år BP), AD 1665 (285 kal år BP), AD 1730 (220 kal år BP), AD 1755 (195 kal år BP) och AD 1945 (5 kal år BP). Skriftliga källor visar på att åtminstone åtta översvämningar har ägt rum under de senaste 62 åren. Under samma period har denna undersökning registrerat två händelser, vilket indikerar att endast ett fåtal har registrerats med ovan nämnda metoder. Det är sannolikt att sedimentationsmönstret under en översvämning är komplicerat och inte heller likartad från gång till gång. Detta innebär att ett flertal sedimentkärnor behöver analyseras och dateras väl. Ytterligare en försvårande faktor är flodens mycket aktiva meandringsaktivitet. Analys av diatoméer har visats vara värdefulla när det gäller översvämningshistorik, klimatförändringar och havsytevariationer. Sedimenten i den något till flodslättens nedre lopp perifert belägna sjön Lungué indikerar fuktiga förhållanden mellan AD 1360 och 1560 (590 till 390 kal år BP). Kombinerade fytolit- och diatoméanalyser av sedimenten i sjön Chilau indikerar fuktiga förhållanden från AD 1200 till 1400 (750 till 550 kal år BP), varefter torrare förhållanden rådde till ca AD 1600 (350 kal år BP). Diatoméanalys av sedimenten i sjön Nhauhache indikerar generellt sett torrare förhållanden mellan AD 1200 och AD 1700 (750 till 250 kal år BP) då klimatet blev fuktigare. De fuktiga och torra förhållanden som dokumenterats i sjön Lungué och översvämningshistoriken korrelerar inte helt med lokala nederbördsförhållanden. Däremot stämmer erhållna data bättre med förhållanden i den övre delen av Limpopoflodens dräneringsområde. Även sjöar och fyllda meanderbågar på själva flodslätten verkar reagera tydligare på översvämningar orsakade av nederbörd i den övre delen av flodloppet. Undersökningen indikerar två faser av en förhöjd havsyta längs kusten i södra Mozambique. En äldre fas är daterad till ca 5000–4200 f.Kr. (6950–6150 kal år BP), vilken representerar den mellersta delen av det postglaciala värmeoptimet. Denna tolkning stöds även av andra undersökningar. En yngre fas har daterats till AD 300–950 (1650–1000 kal år BP), vilken korresponderar till en period med något förhöjda temperaturer i ett globalt perspektiv.
O presente projecto teve como objectivo a reconstrução do paleoambiente, paleohidrologia e paleoclima da costa Sul de Moçambique, com ênfase na identificação de vestígios de eventos de cheias que tenham, no passado, afectado a planície de inundação do Rio Limpopo, com vista a fazer a extensão das datações de cheias para o período anterior aos instrumentos de medição. Deste modo, foram estudados sedimentos recuperados através de testemunhos de sondagem em lagos dentro da planície de inundação (Lago Magandane, Lago Lungué, Lago Soane e o canal abandonado Coassane). As variações do nível do mar e mudanças climáticas do passado foram deduzidas a partir da análise de sedimentos de áreas costeiras a norte da planície de inundação (Lago Chilau, Lago Nhauhache e a Baía de Macassa). Para o alcance destes objectivos, os sedimentos dos testemunhos de sondagem recuperados foram submetidos a várias análises laboratoriais que incluem propriedades de minerais magnéticos, granulometria, teor de matéria orgânica e de microfósseis (diatomáceas e fitólitos). Para o estabelecimento do modelo cronológico foram usadas datações pelo método 14C feitas em matéria orgânica, assim como conchas de gastrópodes e bivalves. A combinação dos resultados obtidos para os pontos de amostragem localizados dentro da planície de inundação do Rio Limpopo, sugerem que esta área foi afectada por um mínimo de 16 eventos de cheias de variada magnitude nos últimos 1100 anos. As cheias de alta magnitude tiveram lugar nos anos 1250, 1370, 1580, 1855, 1920, 1970 e 2000. Por seu turno, as cheias de magnitude moderada ocorrerram nos anos 940, 980, 1040, 1100, 1300, 1665, 1730, 1755 e 1945.. Os anos a negrito são indicativos de eventos de cheias de alta magnitude. O número total de eventos identificados no presente estudo é um mínimo que poderá ter afectado a planície de inundação, tendo em consideração que fontes escritas reportam a ocorrência de pelo menos oito eventos nos últimos 62 anos, tendo o presente estudo revelado somente dois. Isto indica que apenas eventos de cheias intensos podem ser revelados pelos métodos aplicados nesta investigação. Adicionalmente, este estudo mostra a necessidade de aumentar o número de pontos de amostragem para permitir a identificação de mais eventos de cheias ocorridos no passado, devido à diferenciada resposta sedimentológica e geomagnética às cheias, a qual se encontra directamente relacionada à distância do rio meandrante. As análises de microfósseis de diatomáceas permitiram reconstruir o paleoclima e as influências do nível do mar nas áreas de estudo deste projecto. Os registros de diatomáceas do Lago Lungué indicam um período húmido entre AD 1360 e 1560. No Lago Chilau, dados de diatomáceas e fitólitos sugerem condições de humidade entre AD 1200 e 1400. Por seu turno, no Lago Nhauhache, condições de seca dominam entre AD 1200 e 1700. As condições de seca e humidade documentadas no Lago Lungué e os eventos de cheias revelados pelos sedimentos analisados da planície de inundação do Rio Limpopo não mostram total correlação com períodos de baixa e alta precipitação a nível local, mas apresentam boa correlação com evidências a montante na área de drenagem do Rio Limpopo. Em geral, lagos activos ou preenchidos por sedimentos mostrarão ser mais susceptíveis a cheias com origem a montante do que a nível local. As investigações conduzidas permitiram identificar dois períodos de alto nível do mar na região sul de Moçambique. A fase mais antiga teve lugar há cerca de 5000–4200 BC (6950–6150 anos do calendário BP), representando a fase mais recente do pós-glaciar climático óptimo (postglacial climatic optimum, PCA). A fase recente é datada de AD 300–950 (1650–1000 anos do calendário BP), correspondendo a um período de temperaturas relativamente altas a nível global.
Climate and Environmental Research
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Grantz, Katrina Amelia. "Interannual variability of North American Monsoon hydroclimate and application to water management in the Pecos River Basin." Diss., Connect to online resource, 2006. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3239426.
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Vaillencourt, David A. "Five-thousand years of hydroclimate variability on Adak Island, Alaska inferred from deltaD of n-alkanoic acids." Thesis, Northern Arizona University, 2013. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=1537814.
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Hydrogen isotope ratios (δD) in various types of leaf waxes, including n-alkanoic acids, extracted from lacustrine sediments are becoming increasingly popular for understanding past climate changes. Leaf-wax δD values track precipitation δD, and provided that controls on precipitation δD are known, changes in leaf wax δD can be used to reconstruct these changes in the past. Seventy-six sediment samples from Andrew Lake, Adak Island, Alaska, extending to 4800 years ago (4.8 ka) were analyzed for δD of n-alkanoic acids. δD values of isolated C28 n-alkanoic acids show a strong inverse correlation with October-May storminess (days with >19 mm of precipitation) over the meteorological record (r2 = 0.58, p < 0.02), and a similarly strong correlation with total precipitation amount. This implies that isotopes in precipitation on Adak Island are strongly influenced by the amount effect. Shifts in precipitation amount and storminess are associated with shifts in the North Pacific hydroclimate, which is driven by the Aleutian Low during fall and winter. Low δD values indicate high precipitation amount/storminess on Adak Island, which correlates well to a weak or westward Aleutian Low as inferred from other sites, while high δD values indicate lower precipitation amount and generally correlate with a stronger or more eastward Aleutian Low. Results from Adak Island were combined with evidence from previously published paleoclimate studies from southern Alaska and the Yukon to reveal a more complete spatial picture of hydroclimatological changes for the last 5000 years. Variability in δD since 3.5 ka is related to changes in North Pacific atmospheric circulation patterns including the Aleutian Low. High precipitation amount/storminess during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (∼850 to 1050 AD) on Adak Island is consistent with evidence from other studies that suggest a weakened Aleutian Low. Evidence of decrease precipitation during the early Little Ice Age (∼1200 to 1500 AD) gave way to wetter conditions during the latter half (∼1500 to 1900 AD). A wet late LIA is consistent with the results from coastal studies in southern Alaska, suggesting another period of a weakened Aleutian Low. This study is part of a multi-proxy investigation involving two lakes on Adak Island including analyses of pollen, biogenic silica, chironomids, isotopes in diatoms, and other proxies to help increase our knowledge about past hydroclimate in the North Pacific.
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Carolin, Stacy Anne. "Geochemistry of karst deposits in Borneo detailing hydroclimate variations in the Warm Pool across the late Pleistocene." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/52277.
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Variability in the tropical ocean-atmospheric system causes global scale climate anomalies, most evident in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation’s coupled climate
feedbacks. Despite being an area of high interest, many questions still remain regarding the west Pacific warm pool’s response to external forcing, particularly its
response to increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Paleoclimate reconstructions coupled with model simulations provide insight into the tropical Pacific’s role
in past climate variability necessary to the development of robust climate projections. Most paleoclimate records, however, still lack the resolution, length, and
chronological control to resolve rapid variability against a background of orbital-scale variations. Here we present stalagmite oxygen isotope (δ18O) reconstructions
from Gunung Mulu National Park (4oN, 115oE ), in northern Borneo, that provide reproducible centennial-scale records of western Pacific hydrologic variability that
are precisely U/Th-dated and continuous throughout most of the late Pleistocene (0-160 thousand years ago, kybp). The record comprises an entire glacial-interglacial
cycle, which allows us to investigate orbital-scale climate forcings and compare two well-dated glacial terminations in the western tropical Pacific. The ice-
volume-corrected δ18O records suggest that glacial boundary condtions, which include significantly lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, did not drive significant
changes in Mulu rainfall δ18O. Similarly, Borneo stalagmite δ18O is poorly correlated to either global sea level shifts or Sunda Shelf areal exposure is not evident.
The Borneo record does vary in phase with local mid-fall equatorial insolation, suggesting that precessional forcing may impart a strong influence on hydroclimate
variability in the warm pool. This is best illustrated across Glacial Termination II, when the oscillation of equatorial fall insolation is large and out of phase
with ice sheet decay. We also use a subset of well-dated, high-resolution stalagmite δ18O records from Mulu to investigate millennial-scale climate variability
during Marine Isotope Stages 3-5 (30-100kybp). We find that regional convection likely decreased during the six massive iceberg discharges defined in the North
Atlantic sediment records (“Heinrich events”). The inferred drying (increased stalagmite δ18O) during Heinrich events is consistent with a southward shift of the
Intertropical Convergence Zone – the dominant paradigm to explain global climate anomalies originating in the north Atlantic (ref). However, any hydrologic
variability related to Dansgaad-Oeschgar (D/O) events, millennial-scale sawtooth temperature anomalies of the last glacial period first evident in the Greenland ice
records, is notably absent in the stalagmite records. . The Mulu stalagmite record’s absence of D/O signal, however, is in marked contrast to the regional west
Pacific marine records and suggests D/O events and Heinrich events may be characterized by fundamentally different climate mechanisms and feedbacks.
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Kaufman, Claire Allyn. "Recent hydroclimate dynamics in southwest Alaska understanding multidecadal climate variability through sedimentary process studies and varve sedimentology. /." Thesis, Kingston, Ont. : [s.n.], 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1974/1471.
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Chowdhury, Shahadat Hossain Civil & Environmental Engineering Faculty of Engineering UNSW. "Mitigating predictive uncertainty in hydroclimatic forecasts: impact of uncertain inputs and model structural form." Publisher:University of New South Wales. Civil & Environmental Engineering, 2009. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/43378.
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Hydrologic and climate models predict variables through a simplification of the underlying complex natural processes. Model development involves minimising predictive uncertainty. Predictive uncertainty arises from three broad sources which are measurement error in observed responses, uncertainty of input variables and model structural error. This thesis introduces ways to improve predictive accuracy of hydroclimatic models by considering input and structural uncertainties. The specific methods developed to reduce the uncertainty because of erroneous inputs and model structural errors are outlined below. The uncertainty in hydrological model inputs, if ignored, introduces systematic biases in the parameters estimated. This thesis presents a method, known as simulation extrapolation (SIMEX), to ascertain the extent of parameter bias. SIMEX starts by generating a series of alternate inputs by artificially adding white noise in increasing multiples of the known input error variance. The resulting alternate parameter sets allow formulation of an empirical relationship between their values and the level of noise present. SIMEX is based on the theory that the trend in alternate parameters can be extrapolated back to the notional error free zone. The case study relates to erroneous sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) records used as input variables of a linear model to predict the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). SIMEX achieves a reduction in residual errors from the SOI prediction. Besides, a hydrologic application of SIMEX is demonstrated by a synthetic simulation within a three-parameter conceptual rainfall runoff model. This thesis next advocates reductions of structural uncertainty of any single model by combining multiple alternative model responses. Current approaches for combining hydroclimatic forecasts are generally limited to using combination weights that remain static over time. This research develops a methodology for combining forecasts from multiple models in a dynamic setting as an improvement of over static weight combination. The model responses are mixed on a pair wise basis using mixing weights that vary in time reflecting the persistence of individual model skills. The concept is referred here as the pair wise dynamic weight combination. Two approaches for forecasting the dynamic weights are developed. The first of the two approaches uses a mixture of two basis distributions which are three category ordered logistic regression model and a generalised linear autoregressive model. The second approach uses a modified nearest neighbour approach to forecast the future weights. These alternatives are used to first combine a univariate response forecast, the NINO3.4 SSTA index. This is followed by a similar combination, but for the entire global gridded SSTA forecast field. Results from these applications show significant improvements being achieved due to the dynamic model combination approach. The last application demonstrating the dynamic combination logic, uses the dynamically combined multivariate SSTA forecast field as the basis of developing multi-site flow forecasts in the Namoi River catchment in eastern Australia. To further reduce structural uncertainty in the flow forecasts, three forecast models are formulated and the dynamic combination approach applied again. The study demonstrates that improved SSTA forecast (due to dynamic combination) in turn improves all three flow forecasts, while the dynamic combination of the three flow forecasts results in further improvements.
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Fliehman, Ryan Mark. "Examining the Relationship Between Hydroclimatological Variables and High Flow Events." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/228461.
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In our study we identify dominant hydroclimatic variables and large-scale patterns that lead to high streamflow events in the Santa Cruz, Salt, and Verde River in Arizona for the period 1979-2009 using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We used winter (Nov - March) data from the USGS daily streamflow database and 11 variables from the North American Reanalysis (NARR) database, in addition to weather maps from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC). Using streamflow data, we identify precipitation events that led to the highest 98th percentile of daily streamflow events and find dominant hydroclimatic variables associated with these events. We find that upper level winds and moisture fluxes are dominant variables that characterize events. The dominant mode for all three basins is associated with frontal systems, while the second mode is associated with cut-off upper level low pressure systems. Our goal is to provide forecasting agencies with tools to improve flood forecasting practices.
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Shams, Md Shamim. "Improving streamflow forecasting lead-time for Australian rivers using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations and hydroclimatic variables." Thesis, Curtin University, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11937/88140.
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It is essential to develop a long-lead streamflow forecast system for providing the prior signal for possible floods. Climatic variabilities such as oceanic-atmospheric global oscillations may possess tele-connectivity with Australian rainfall-runoff. This study identifies an ocean-atmospheric region connected with Australian rivers streamflow. By utilizing its persistence capacity, statistical and machine learning-based forecast models are developed, predicting inter-annual streamflow forecast of Australian river flows. This outcome will be beneficial for future water planning and mitigating flood risk.
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Kirk, Johnathan. "Hydroclimatic Variability and Contributing Mechanisms during the Early 21st Century Drought in the Colorado River Basin." Kent State University / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=kent1500480359156882.
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Pederson, Gregory Thomas. "Long-Term Hydroclimatic Change in the U.S. Rocky Mountain Region: Implications for Ecosystems and Water Resources." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194302.
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Both natural and anthropogenic climate change are driven by forcings that interact and result in hydroclimatic changes that alter ecosystems and natural resources at different temporal and spatial scales. Accordingly, changes within regions (i.e. individual points to large watersheds) may differ from patterns observed at sub-continental to global scales, thus necessitating the generation of point- to region-specific, cross-scale hydroclimatic data to elucidate important drivers of observed changes, and provide information at scales relevant to resource managers. Herein, we use the Northern U.S. Rocky Mountains as a study region to explore 1) the covariability between observed hydrologic and climatic changes, 2) the nature of changes occurring at the scale of days to decades, and 3) the ocean-atmosphere teleconnections operating at continental- to hemispheric-scales underlying the observed regional patterns of hydroclimatic variability. We then expand the scope of study to include the entire central North American Cordillera to investigate changes in winter precipitation (i.e. snowpack) spanning the last millennia+, with a focus on the spatial and temporal coherence of events from the medieval climatic anomaly to present. To accomplish this we utilize the full suite of hydroclimatic observational records in conjunction with proxy records of snowpack derived from a distributed network of tree-ring chronologies.Results from observational records in the Northern Rockies show important changes have occurred in the frequency and means of biophysically important temperature thresholds, and that recent changes appear greater in magnitude at the mid- to high-elevations. These changes, coupled with interannual- to interdecadal-scale moisture variability driven by ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, are shown to be strong controls on the timing and amount of regional snowpack and streamflow. Across the cordillera, tree-ring based records of snowpack show that before 1950, the region exhibited substantial inter-basin variability in snowpack, even during prolonged droughts and pluvials, marked by a predominant north-south dipole associated with Pacific variability. Snowpack was unusually low in the Northern Rocky Mountains for much of the 20th century and over the entire cordillera since the 1980s; heralding a new era of snowpack declines entrained across all major headwaters in western North America.
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Martinez, Agudelo John Alejandro. "On the Hydroclimate of Southern South America: Water Vapor Transport and the Role of Shallow Groundwater on Land-Atmosphere Interactions." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/595679.
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The present work focuses on the sources and transport of water vapor to the La Plata Basin (LPB), and the role of groundwater dynamics on the simulation of hydrometeorological conditions over the basin. In the first part of the study an extension to the Dynamic Recycling Model (DRM) is developed to estimate the water vapor transported to the LPB from different regions in South America and the nearby oceans, and the corresponding contribution to precipitation over the LPB. It is found that more than 23% of the precipitation over the LPB is from local origin, while nearly 20% originates from evapotranspiration from the southern Amazon. Most of the moisture comes from terrestrial sources, with the South American continent contributing more than 62% of the moisture for precipitation over the LPB. The Amazonian contribution increases during the positive phase of El Niño and the negative phase of the Antarctic Oscillation. In the second part of the study the effect of a groundwater scheme on the simulation of terrestrial water storage, soil moisture and evapotranspiration (ET) over the LPB is investigated. It is found that the groundwater scheme improves the simulation of fluctuations in the terrestrial water storage over parts of the southern Amazon. There is also an increase in the soil moisture in the root zone over those regions where the water table is closer to the surface, including parts of the western and southern Amazon, and of the central and southern LPB. ET increases in the central and southern LPB, where it is water limited. Over parts of the southeastern Amazon the effects of the groundwater scheme are only observed at higher resolution, when the convergence of lateral groundwater flow in local topographical depressions is resolved by the model. Finally, the effects of the groundwater scheme on near surface conditions and precipitation are explored. It is found that the increase in ET induced by the groundwater scheme over parts of the LPB induces an increase in near surface specific humidity, accompanied by a decrease in near surface temperature. During the dry season, downstream of the regions where ET increases, there is also a slight increase in precipitation, over a region where the model has a dry bias compared with observations. During the early rainy season, there is also an increase in the local convective available potential energy. Over the southern LPB, groundwater induces an increase in ET and precipitation of 13 and 10%, respectively. Over the LPB, the groundwater scheme tends to improve the warm and dry biases of the model. It is suggested that a more realistic simulation of the water table depth could further increase the simulated precipitation during the early rainy season.
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Rau, Lavado Pedro. "Variabilité du régime des précipitations, des débits et des bilans hydriques le long du versant pacifique péruvien : influence du phénomène ENSO et sensibilité au changement hydroclimatique." Thesis, Toulouse 3, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017TOU30249/document.
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La variabilité climatique et les événements extrêmes associés comme le phénomène El Niño (ENSO) représentent les épisodes les plus difficiles à gérer dans le Versant Pacifique Péruvien. En outre, une préoccupation croissante sur la disponibilité en eau a lieu depuis les années 1970s. Une documentation approfondie des régimes de précipitations et des débits est un élément clé de tout plan de gestion de l'eau et notre recherche est la première étude sur la variabilité hydroclimatique à l'échelle mensuelle et annuelle dans la zone d'étude au cours des quatre dernières décennies (période 1970-2010). Tout d'abord, un traitement de base de données exhaustif a été effectué pour surmonter certaines limitations et notamment celles liées aux conditions géographiques des Andes. Deuxièmement, le régime des précipitations a été étudié avec une approche de régionalisation liée aux conditions de séries temporelles non stationnaires. Une méthode mixte associant la méthode des clusters k-means et la méthode du vecteur régional a été proposée. Neuf régions ont été identifiées avec des régimes homogènes de précipitation tenant compte d'un gradient latitudinal et altitudinal. Un bilan hydroclimatique a ensuite été fait à l'échelle de bassin versant, abordant la problématique du climat et de l'anthropisation et leurs influences potentielles sur les séries chronologiques hydroclimatiques. Le cadre théorique de Budyko-Zhang a été utilisé et a permis d'identifier 11 des 26 bassins versants à faible influence climatique et anthropique (i.e. des conditions quasi-naturelles). Le régime des débits a ensuite été étudié pour ces conditions et une extension pour l'ensemble des 49 bassins versants de la zone d'étude a été effectuée. Un modèle hydrologique régional est proposé via deux modèles conceptuels agrégés à l'échelle de temps annuelle et mensuelle (GR1A et GR2M respectivement). Un test d'échantillonnage différentiel (DSST) a été utilisé pour améliorer la robustesse de la modélisation par rapport aux conditions climatiques contrastées entre années sèches et humides dans les conditions semi-arides. Enfin, la portée de la thèse couvre (1) une revisite de la relation ENSO/précipitation en prenant en compte les neuf régions identifiées et de plusieurs indices ENSO afin de discriminer l'influence des deux types d'El Niño (El Niño du Pacifique Est EP et du Pacifique Central CP) ainsi que l'influence de la variabilité atmosphérique (i.e. l'oscillation Madden et Julian) et aux conditions océaniques régionales. La méthodologie proposée consiste en l'analyse des composantes principales, ondelettes et de cohérence, les corrélations glissantes et l'analyse de la covariance spatiale afin de mettre en évidence la modulation décennale significative du phénomène ENSO ainsi que sa croissance à partir des années 2000s où la relation ENSO/précipitations s'inverse par rapport à la décennie précédente. Les deux modes de co-variabilité dominants entre la température superficielle de la mer dans le Pacifique tropical et les neuf régions montrent des caractéristiques dominantes de l'influence de l'ENSO: une augmentation des précipitations sur les régions aval dans le nord pendant El Niño EP et une diminution des précipitations sur les régions amont le long des Andes lors des événements El Niño CP. (2) La sensibilité au changement hydroclimatique est explorée via l'analyse des tendances hydroclimatiques comme indicateurs de changement de l'hydroclimatologie régionale. Les résultats montrent un réchauffement important dans la zone d'étude avec une moyenne de 0,2°C par décennie. En outre, les changements dans les trajectoires dans l'espace de Budyko (i.e. direction et amplitude) ont révélé que six bassins versants étaient sensibles à la variabilité du climat (i.e. probablement avec une grande sensibilité au climat futur) et aux changements d'utilisation du sol et où les précipitations et la température sont les facteurs prépondérants du changement de ces environnementsClimate variability and associated extreme events as El Niño phenomenon (ENSO) represent the most difficult episodes to deal with along the Peruvian Pacific slope and coast. In addition, a growing water concern takes place since seventies. In-depth documentation of precipitation and runoff regimes becomes a key part in any water management plan and this research offers the first hydroclimatic variability study at monthly and annual time step in the study area over the last four decades (1970?2010 period). First, an exhaustive database treatment was carried out overcoming some limitations due to Andean geographical conditions. Second, precipitation regime was studied with a regionalization approach under non-stationary time-series conditions. A combined process consisting in k-means clustering and regional vector methodology was proposed. Nine regions were identified with a homogeneous precipitation regime following a latitudinal and altitudinal gradient. Third, a hydroclimatic balance is done at catchment-scale addressing the issue of climate and anthropogenization and their potential influences over hydroclimatic time series. The theoretical Budyko-Zhang framework was used and allowed identifying 11 out of 26 catchments with both low climate and anthropogenization influence (i.e. unimpaired conditions). This hypothesis was verified with the use of land use and land cover remote sensing products as MODIS and LBA imagery. Then, runoff regime was studied under unimpaired conditions and an extension over 49 catchments of the Peruvian Pacific drainage was done. A regional runoff model is proposed via two conceptual lumped models at annual and monthly time scale (GR1A and GR2M respectively). A Differential Split-Sample Test (DSST) was used to cope with modelling robustness over contrasted climate conditions as dry and wet years according to the semi-arid conditions. These results also showed an increasing regional discharge from arid Peruvian Pacific coast towards the Pacific Ocean. Finally, the scope of the thesis covers (1) a revisitation of ENSO/precipitation relationship considering the regionalized precipitation and several ENSO indices in order to discriminate the influence of the two types of El Niño (the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño and the central Pacific (CP) El Niño) as well as the influence of large-scale atmospheric variability associated with the Madden and Julian Oscillation, and of regional oceanic conditions. The proposed methodology consisting in principal component analysis, wavelets and coherence, running correlations and spatial covariance analysis, highlights the significant decadal modulation with the larger ENSO impact in particular in the 2000s, ENSO/precipitation relationship reverses compared to the previous decade. The two dominant co-variability modes between sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the nine regions show salient features of the ENSO influence: increased precipitation over downstream regions in northern Peru during EP El Niño and decreased precipitation over upstream regions along the Pacific slope during CP El Niño events. (2) The sensitivity to hydroclimatic change is explored by hydroclimatic trend analysis as changes indicators of regional hydroclimatology. According to significant upward trends in annual temperature found in all catchments, results showed a significant warming in the study area with a mean of 0.2°C per decade. Also, changes in trajectories in the Budyko space (i.e. direction and magnitude) over the 11 selected catchments revealed that six catchments were shown to be sensitive to climate variability (i.e. likely with high sensitivity to future climate) and land use changes, where precipitation and temperature are the main drivers of these environments changes
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Guan, Bin. "Pacific sea surface temperatures in the twentieth century variability, trend, and connections to long-term hydroclimate variations over the Great Plains /." College Park, Md.: University of Maryland, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1903/8807.
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Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2008.Thesis research directed by: Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.
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Pietroń, Jan. "Sediment transport from source to sink in the Lake Baikal basin : Impacts of hydroclimatic change and mining." Doctoral thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-145442.
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Different magnitude, intensity and timing of precipitation can impact runoff, hillslope erosion and transport of sediment along river channels. Human activities, such as dam construction and surface mining can also considerably influence transport of sediment and sediment-bound contaminants. Many river basins of the world are currently subject to changes in climate at the same time as pressures from other human activities increase. However, because there are often complex interactions between such multiple drivers of change, it is challenging to understand and quantify contributions of individual drivers, which is needed in predictive modelling of future sediment and contaminant flows. This thesis considers sediment transport in the Lake Baikal basin, which is hydrologically dominated by the transboundary Selenga River of Russia and Mongolia. The Selenga River basin is, for instance, subject to climate change and increasing pressures from mining, but process complexity is reduced by the fact that the river basin is one of few large basins in the world that still is essentially undammed and unregulated. A combination of field measurement campaigns and modelling methods are used in this thesis, with the aim to: (i) identify historical hydroclimatic trends and their possible causes, (ii) analyse the spatial variability of riverine sediment loading in the mining affected areas, and (iii) investigate sediment transport and storage processes within river channels and in river deltas. Results show that, during the period 1938-2009, the annual maximum daily flow in the Selenga River basin has decreased, as well as the annual number of high flow events, whereas the annual minimum daily flow has increased. These changes in discharge characteristics are consistent with expected impacts of basin-scale permafrost thaw. Both field observations and modelling results show that changes in magnitude and number of high-flow events can considerably influence the transport of bed sediment. In addition, the average discharge has decreased in the past 20 years due to an extended drought. Under conditions of low flow, metal-enriched sediment from mining areas was observed to dominate the river water. If discharge will continue to decrease in the Selenga River (or other mining-impacted rivers of the world), further increases in riverine metal concentrations may hence be one of the consequences. Furthermore, under current conditions of extended drought, less sediment may have been distributed over the floodplain wetlands in the Selenga River delta. Present estimates, however, show that sediment can still be transported to, and deposited within, the banks and water bodies located in the backwater zone of the Selenga River delta. This can aid bank and levee stabilization, support the development of wetlands and foster net sedimentation.Nederbördens olika magnitud, intensitet och tidpunkt kan påverka ytavrinning, vattenerosion och transport av sediment längs flodkanaler. Mänskliga aktiviteter, som dammkonstruktion och gruvdrift i dagbrott kan också påtagligt påverka transport av sediment och sedimentbundna föroreningar. Många avrinningsområden i världen påverkas för närvarande av klimatförändringar samtidigt som trycket från andra mänskliga aktiviteter ökar. Men eftersom det ofta förekommer komplexa interaktioner mellan sådana multipla orsaker till förändring, är det utmanande att förstå och kvantifiera bidrag från enskilda orsaker, vilket behövs vid prediktiv modellering av framtida sediment- och föroreningsflöden. Denna avhandling behandlar sedimenttransport i Bajkalsjöns tillrinningsområde, som hydrologiskt domineras av den internationella Selengafloden i Ryssland och Mongoliet. Selengaflodens tillrinningsområde är exempelvis påverkat av klimatförändringar och ökat tryck från gruvdrift, men processkomplexiteten reduceras av det faktum att tillrinningsområdet är ett av världens få stora som fortfarande väsentligen saknar dammar och flödesreglering. I denna avhandling används en kombination av fältmätningskampanjer och modelleringsmetoder, i syfte att: (i) identifiera historiska hydroklimattrender och deras möjliga orsaker, (ii) analysera den rumsliga variationen i flodens sedimentbelastning inom de gruvpåverkade områdena, och (iii) undersöka sedimenttransport- och retentionsprocesser inom flodkanaler och i floddeltan. Resultaten visar att det årliga maximala dygnsflödet, liksom det årliga antalet högflödeshändelser, har minskat i Selengafloden under perioden 1938-2009, medan det årliga minimala dygnsflödet har ökat. Dessa förändringar i flödeskaraktäristika överensstämmer med förväntade effekter av storskaligt tinande permafrost. Både fältobservationer och modelleringsresultat visar att förändringar i högflödeshändelsers magnitud och årligt antal kan påverka transporten av bottensediment påtagligt. Dessutom har medelflödet minskat under de senaste 20 åren på grund av långvarig torka. Under lågflöden observerades metallberikat sediment från gruvområdena dominera flodvattnet. Om flödena fortsätter att minska i Selengafloden (eller andra gruvdriftspåverkade floder i världen), kan således ytterligare ökningar av flodvattnens metallkoncentrationer vara en av konsekvenserna. Under den långvariga torka som nu råder mängden sediment som fördelats över våtmarkerna i Selengaflodens delta ha minskat. Sediment beräknas dock fortfarande kunna transporteras till och deponeras inom flodbankar och vattenkroppar i Selengadeltats backwaterområden. Detta kan bidra till stabilisering av bankar och skyddsvallar, stödja våtmarkers utveckling och främja nettosedimentering.
Wielkość, czas trwania oraz intensywność opadów atmosferycznych oddziałuje na charakter odpływu, erozję oraz transport osadów rzecznych. Również ingerencja człowieka w środowisko – np. budowa zapór i zbiorników wodnych, czy górnictwo odkrywkowe – w różnym stopniu może wpływać na transport osadów oraz powiązanych z nimi zanieczyszczeń. Wiele dorzeczy na Ziemi, będących pod wpływem obecnych zmian klimatycznych, jest jednocześnie poddawanych narastającej antropopresji. W celu przewidywania przyszłych zmian w transporcie osadów i powiązanych z nimi zanieczyszczeń, potrzeba dogłębnego zrozumienia i oceny wpływu poszczególnych czynników powodujących te zmiany. Taka analiza jest jednak często utrudniona ze względu na złożone interakcje pomiędzy czynnikami powodującymi zmiany. Niniejsza rozprawa doktorska przedstawia wyniki badań związanych z analizą transportu osadów rzecznych w zlewni jeziora Bajkał, zdominowanej hydrologicznie transgraniczną rzeką Selengą, przepływającą przez tereny Rosji i Mongolii. Zlewnia rzeki Selengi podlega współczesnym zmianom klimatycznym oraz wzrastającej presji związanej z górnictwem. Złożoność procesów hydrologicznych jest jednak w tym wypadku ograniczona, ponieważ zlewnia Selengi jest jednym z nielicznych, względnie dużych dorzeczy na świecie, którego przepływy są – jak dotychczas – naturalne, nieuregulowane przez żadne zapory lub zbiorniki wodne. Dla poszczególnych celów: (i) identyfikacji historycznych trendów hydroklimatycznych i ich przyczyn, (ii) analizy przestrzennych zmian w transporcie osadów rzecznych w części zlewni dotkniętej górnictwem odkrywkowym oraz (iii) badania procesów transportu i magazynowania osadów w korycie i delcie rzeki; zostały w pracy zastosowane hydrometryczne dane pomiarowe, dane pochodzące z badań terenowych oraz metody modelowania. Wyniki badań wskazują na to, że w latach 1938-2009 zmalały roczne przepływy maksymalne oraz liczba wezbrań, podczas gdy w tym samym czasie wzrosły roczne przepływy minimalne. Powyższe zmiany są zgodne z oczekiwanym wpływem rozmarzania wiecznej zmarzliny na ustrój przepływów rzecznych. Analiza danych pomiarowych oraz wyników modelowania wskazują na to, że obecne zmiany dotyczące liczby oraz wielkości wezbrań mogą znacznie wpłynąć na transport osadów dennych w korytach rzek. Dodatkowo, w ciągu ostatnich 20 lat (1995-2014), średnie roczne przepływy znacznie spadły ze względu na przedłużający się okres suszy na terenie zlewni. Analiza danych terenowych pochodzących z obszarów górniczych wykazała, że podczas obniżonych przepływów, w zanieczyszczonych znaczną ilością metali osadach rzecznych, dominuje materiał pochodzący z działalności człowieka (około 80\% transportowanych osadów). Należy zatem przewidywać, że jeśli obecne zmiany w ustroju przepływów w dorzeczu Selengi (lub w innych podobnych dorzeczach na świecie) będą postępować, to ich następstwem może być dalszy wzrost koncentracji zanieczyszczeń (metali pochodzących z obszarów górniczych) rzek. Ponadto, w obecnym okresie obniżonych przepływów, na terenach zalewowych i jeziorach delty rzeki Selengi zatrzymuje się prawdopodobnie mniej osadów. Wyniki badań wskazują jednak na to, że osady rzeczne mogą być wciąż transportowane do brzegów i obszarów wodnych znajdujących się w strefie, w której stany wodne cieków delty są pod wpływem stanów wodnych jeziora Bajkału. Akumulacja materiału w tych częściach delty Selengi może pozytywnie wpływać na stabilizację naturalnych wałów oraz mokradeł i zwiększać sedymentację netto.
At the time of the doctoral defense, the following paper was unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 4: Manuscript.
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Cline, Michael Logan. "Extreme flooding in the Dolores River Basin, Colorado and Utah: insights from paleofloods, geochronology and hydroclimatic analysis." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/195522.
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The complex hydroclimatic response of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) to climate circulation patterns and their descriptive indices creates significant challenges to water managers, especially given the uncertain future of the climate. This dissertation addresses fundamental questions that surround extreme flooding in the UCRB by combining paleoflood field techniques, two analytical geochronology techniques and several numerical climate data analysis techniques. The three manuscripts included in this dissertation focus on the Dolores River Basin (DRB), a sub-basin within the UCRB in order to answer theoretical questions about the timing and climate patterns associated with extreme floods.It has become widely accepted that extreme flooding in the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) is linked to a period when the frequency and intensity of El Nino periods was higher. Within the UCRB, and more specifically, the DRB, the linkages are less clear. The paleoflood chronology that we developed indicates that the peak episodes of flooding in the DRB occurred between roughly 300 A.D. and 1200 A.D. This period of flooding is out of phase with many floods in the LCRB, whose peak floods dominantly clustered in the last 700 years; a period of time coincident with the termination of large floods in the DRB. The chronology that I developed utilizes accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon (AMS 14C) and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) to provide a detailed flood history, highlighting the importance of utilizing independent age control. Alternative, or less accurate chronologies would have resulted had we used AMS 14C or OSL alone, suggesting that some previously studied basins may have incorrect chronologies. The detailed flood chronology of this study has subsequently allowed us to contextualize extreme floods relative to middle--late Holocene climate variability.In an effort to provide a hydroclimatic context for flooding in the DRB, numerical analyses were applied to contemporary climate and streamflow data in order to identify the possible mechanisms that modulate precipitation and streamflow in the Western U.S. and more specifically, the DRB. Results from these techniques indicate that the DRB maintains a complex response to a major North Pacific, low-frequency circulation pattern. The North Pacific circulation modulates the low-frequency component of the DRB's precipitation and flooding, although the high frequency modulation remains very poorly characterized.
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Brocas, William [Verfasser], Thomas [Akademischer Betreuer] Felis, Gerlod [Gutachter] Wefer, and Gerrit [Gutachter] Lohmann. "A coral perspective on last interglacial tropical Atlantic temperature and hydroclimate variability / William Brocas ; Gutachter: Gerlod Wefer, Gerrit Lohmann ; Betreuer: Thomas Felis." Bremen : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen, 2017. http://d-nb.info/1149219866/34.
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McGrane, Scott James. "The hydrology of mesoscale catchments in Scotland : hydroclimatic trends, monitoring and modelling isotope dynamics and water quality implications." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2012. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=195978.
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Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of catchment systems is crucial to understanding how hydrological behaviour may change over time and how this impacts on crucial aspects of catchment management such as flood generation, water resource management and the sources and fluxes of sediment, nutrients and contaminants. A combined statistical analysis was undertaken to assess whether similar catchment groupings respond to changing climatic drivers in the same way. A k-means cluster and PCA analysis grouped catchments in four clusters, which were differentiated by their topographical differences between lowland and upland catchments. Lowland catchments exhibited similar behaviours to changing trends of key hydroclimatic variables whereas more upland catchments showed diverse responses. We assessed the behaviour of 8 mesoscale catchments with increasing lowland areas for spatial and temporal runoff dynamics via the application of environmental tracers (stable isotopes and Gran alkalinity). Mean transit times were estimated using a lumped convolution integral model and lowland catchments with greater coverage of sedimentary bedrock exhibited longer turnover for water and solute fluxes. Tracer data was then implemented into a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to develop a model, which could represent both spatial and temporal dynamics rather than simply recreating the observed stream hydrograph. Finally, we assessed the role of dominant landscape characteristics (urban environments and grazing pastures) on the sources and fluxes of microbial contaminant risk to water quality. Catchments which had larger urban coverage and higher portion of grazing pastures yielded higher concentration fluxes of faecal coliforms which provided a first-order approximation of water quality risk at the catchment scale.
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Lambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringa. "An Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Mid-Range Streamflow Predictive Capacity in Four Lower Colorado River Sub-Basins." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/144578.
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Historical changes in hydroclimatic characteristics in four Lower Colorado River sub-basins are examined using the Mann-Kendall test for trends and Kendall's tau-b test for statistical association to better understand the processes taking place in these arid watersheds. During the historical record of 1906-2007, in general, temperatures have increased and streamflows have decreased while there has been no change in precipitation. Streamflow was found to have statistical association with annual maximum temperatures, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using this knowledge, two-year and five-year streamflow predictions are made using climate data to force a statistical model. We find no predictive skill at the two-year range but significant (alpha =.05) predictive skill in two of the basins at the five-year range. The dominant climate predictor for the Paria River Basin is ENSO and for the Little Colorado River Basin it is temperature.
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Hodelka, Bailee Nicole. "STRATIGRAPHY AND ORGANIC GEOCHEMISTRY REVEAL PATTERNS OF LATE QUATERNARY PALEO-PRODUCTIVITY AT MONO LAKE, CALIFORNIA." UKnowledge, 2018. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ees_etds/58.
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Mono Lake (CA) is a hydrologically closed lacustrine basin well-known for its paleo-shorelines, which record fluctuations in water level for the last deglacial and late Holocene. Mono Lake is a sentinel of California’s water supply, situated in the rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada, a mountain range whose snowpack is a vital source of freshwater for urban and agricultural districts to the west and south. Recent droughts, floods, and wildfires show that California is threatened by climate change, but how these changes impact and get recorded by Mono Lake sediments remains poorly known. Here, we use a new radiocarbon-dated deepwater sediment core from Mono Lake to test the hypothesis that organic facies development is controlled by climate and limnological change. An integrated stratigraphic analysis of the core reveals seven lithostratigraphic units that track environmental changes from ~16-4 ka. When compared to available paleo-shoreline and shallow water core data, our results show that high amplitude lakelevel fluctuations of the late Pleistocene produce different patterns of sedimentation and organic enrichment than lower-amplitude water level changes of the early and middle Holocene. The results have implications for understanding patterns of paleo-production and hydroclimate change at Mono Lake.
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McLean, Kyle Ian. "Aquatic Macroinvertebrate Response to Shifts in Hydroclimatic Variability and Ecohydrological Conditions in Prairie-Pothole Wetlands: Implications for Biodiversity Conservation." Diss., North Dakota State University, 2020. https://hdl.handle.net/10365/31877.
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Ecosystem degradation and subsequent biodiversity loss has plagued freshwater environments globally. Wetland ecosystems, such as the depressional wetlands found in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, have been heavily impacted by historical land-use change and continue to be vulnerable to continued landscape modifications and climate change. Using existing literature, I summarized how recent shifts in climate coupled with historic and contemporary landscape modifications have driven a shift in wetland ecohydrological variability. However, clear trends in biodiversity were often limited by the spatial and temporal resolution of published research.
I used 24 years (1992–2015) of hydrologic and aquatic-macroinvertebrate data from a complex of 16 prairie-pothole wetlands located in North Dakota to relate wetland ecohydrological variability to biodiversity. I used structural equation modeling techniques to test a set of causal hypotheses linking a wetland’s hydrogeologic setting and local climate conditions (i.e., the Wetland Continuum) to changes in hydrology, water chemistry, and biology, with an emphasis on aquatic-macroinvertebrate community response. I then examined the temporal synchrony of aquatic-macroinvertebrate populations to examine the relative importance of landscape-scale controls (e.g., climate, metacommunity dynamics) and wetland-specific controls on community assembly. Using this information, I then quantified among-wetland and amongyear changes in aquatic-macroinvertebrate beta diversity to investigate patterns of biotic homogenization.
I found that spatial and temporal variability in aquatic-macroinvertebrate composition was strongly influenced by ponded-water dynamics. In addition to hydrologic controls, the high levels of temporal coherence of aquatic-macroinvertebrate compositional turnover supported the hypothesis that wetland biodiversity is also dependent on metacommunity dynamics. Analyses of spatio-temporal patterns in beta diversity did not reveal climate driven homogenization of aquatic-macroinvertebrate taxa among wetlands. However, shifts towards more permanently ponded water regimes corresponded with lasting shifts in aquatic-macroinvertebrate community composition. The communities of temporarily ponded wetlands maintained high levels of both temporal and spatial beta diversity. My collective findings indicate that the conservation of aquatic-macroinvertebrate diversity is dependent on the conservation of heterogenous, wellconnected, wetland complexes.
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Kodja, Domiho Japhet. "Indicateurs des évènements hydroclimatiques extrêmes dans le bassin versant de l'Ouémé à l'exutoire de Bonou en Afrique de l'Ouest." Thesis, Montpellier, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018MONTG014/document.
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L’étude vise à caractériser les indicateurs relatifs aux évènements hydroclimatiques extrêmes dans le bassin-versant de l'Ouémé à l'exutoire de Bonou. Pour atteindre cet objectif, les données climatologiques (pluies journalières, températures journalières, évapotranspiration potentielle journalières), les données hydrométriques (débits journaliers), les données de réanalyses (pression atmosphériques, humidité relative, vitesse du vent, Indices de Mousson West Africain), la température de surface océanique sur la côte de Cotonou et les données cartographiques relatives aux occupations du sol des années 1986, 2000 et 2015 sont utilisées. L’analyse de la variabilité hydroclimatique a révélé que le secteur d’étude a connu sur la période de 1951-2015, deux ruptures de stationnarité (1968 et 1987) qui ont divisé la série en trois sous-périodes. La variabilité pluviométrique révèle qu’il une régression de 18 % (au sud), de 16 % (au centre) et de 15,8 % (au nord) entre la première sous-période (1951-1968) et la deuxième sous-période (1969-1987), alors que la dernière sous-période (1988-2015) est marquée par une reprise pluviométrique de 15 % (au sud), de 16,3 % (au centre) et de 15,7 % (au nord) par rapport à la sous-période d’avant. Ce qui n’est pas sans conséquences sur la dynamique hydrologique du secteur d’étude. Ainsi, il est observé une régression de 49,27 % des débits moyens annuels entre les sous-périodes 1951-1968 et 1969-1987 et une augmentation de 65 % entre les sous-périodes 1969-1987 et 1988-2015. Sur la dernière sous-période (1988-2015), les résultats révèlent aussi une augmentation des indicateurs des évènements hydroclimatiques extrêmes susceptibles d’occasionner les inondations à Bonou. Les pluies maximales journalières ont une occurrence de 2 ans, 5 ans, 10 ans pour les événements pluvieux forts ; 20 ans, pour les événements pluvieux très forts ; 50 ans et + pour les événements pluvieux extrêmement forts dans le secteur d’étude. Les débits maximaux en 24 heures augmentent en même temps que les périodes de retour. Les débits maximaux de 50ème quantile surviennent chaque deux ans, les débits maximaux correspondants aux évènements hydrologiquement forts, très forts, surviennent tous les 10 ans et les débits extrêmement forts ont une occurrence centennale. Les conditions atmosphériques, océaniques, de la surface continentale, la vitesse du vent, l’humidité relative, les facteurs géographiques sont autant de facteurs qui interagissent dans la répartition spatio-temporelle de la pluie du secteur d’étude. La pluviométrie du bassin est également influencée par le flux de mousson (nord secteur d’étude) auquel s’associent les lignes de grains de sud-est, responsables des pluies orageuses et d’averses qui génèrent des inondations dans le bassin. De même, le contexte climatique actuel et la dynamique de l’occupation des terres constituent des déterminants qui amplifient la manifestation des inondations dans le secteur d’étude. La recherche indique que le modèle conceptuel pluie-débit GR4J, surestime les débits observés en période de basse eau et les sous-estime en période de hautes eaux. Les critères d’efficacité et de performance NSE, RMSE et KGE, mis en évidence et calculés sur les débits de hautes eaux ont donné des résultats meilleurs en calage qu’en validation. Mieux les valeurs du KGE varient de 83 à 85 % en calage et de 56 à 68 % en validation, ce qui confère au modèle GR4J, l’efficacité, la performance à reproduire les débits extrêmes de crues dans le bassin. Le GR4J peut donc être servir comme outil d’aide à la décision pour l’actualisation des normes hydrologiques dans le secteur d’étude. Dans la perspective de mieux étudier les évènements climatiques extrêmes futurs, cette recherche a évalué des données de projection de sorties des modèles climatiques régionaux issues du Programme CORDEX africain et qui pourraient être utilisées pour les projections hydrologiques des travaux futurs dans le secteur d’étudeThis research aims to characterize the indicators relating to extreme hydroclimatic events in Ouémé Watershed at Bonou’s outlet. To achieve this objective, climatological data (daily rain, daily temperatures, potential daily evapotranspiration), hydrometric data (daily flows), reanalysis data (atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, wind speed, West African Monsoon Indices), the ocean surface temperature on the Cotonou coast and land use mapping data of 1986, 2000, 2015 are used. The analysis of the hydroclimatic variability revealed that during the 1951-2015 period, the study area is marked by two breaks stationarity (1968 and 1987) which divided the series into three sub-periods. The rainfall variability reveals a regression of 18 % (in the south), 16 % (in the center) and 15.8 % (in the north) between the first sub-period (1951-1968) and the second sub-period (1969-1987), while the last sub-period (1988-2015) is marked by a rainfall recovery of 15 % (in the south), 16.3 % (in the center) and 15.7 % (in north) relative to the previous sub-period (1969-1987). This is not without consequences on the hydrological dynamics of the study area. In this sense, it is noted that there is a regression of 49.27% of the average annual flows between the 1951-1968 and 1969-1987 sub-periods and a 65 % increase between the 1969-1987 and the 1969-1987 sub-periods. 1988-2015. In the last sub-period (1988-2015), the results also reveal an increase in the indicators of extreme hydroclimatic events likely to cause floods Ouémé Watershed at Bonou’s outlet. The results shows that daily maximum rainfall has an occurrence of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years for strong rainfall events; 20 years, for very heavy rain events, 50 years and over for extremely heavy rain events in the study area. The maximum flow rates in 24 hours at the sametime as the return periods. The maximum flow rates of 50th quantiles occur every two years (02 years), the maximum flows corresponding to the hydrologically strong events, very strong occur every 10 years and the extremely high flows have an occurrence centennial. The conditions of atmospheric, oceanic, continental surface, wind speed, relative humidity, and geographic factors are all elements that interact in the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall in the study area. The Rainfall of the basin is also influenced by the monsoon flow (north of the study area), to which the southeastern grain lines are associated and are responsible for the stormy rains and showers that generate flooding in the area. In addition, the current climatic context and land-use dynamics are determinants that amplify the occurrence of floods in the study area. The reasearch indicates that the rain-flow conceptual model, of the Rural Engineering with four parameters and the daily time step (GR4J), overestimates the flows observed during the low water period and the sub-peaks. The efficiency and performance criteria NSE, RMSE and KGE, highlighted and calculated on high water flow rates, gave better results in calibration than in validation. Better KGE values range from 83 to 85 % calibration and from 56 to 68 % validation, which gives the GR4J model the efficiency and performance to reproduce extreme flows of floods in the study area. The GR4J can therefore be used as a decision to support tool for updating hydrological standards in the study area. In order to future study about extreme climatic events, this research assessed output projection data from regional climate models from the African CORDEX Program that could be used for hydrological projections in future work in Ouémé Watershed at Bonou’s outlet
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Raynaud, Damien. "Hydroclimatic variability and the integration of renewable energy in Europe : multiscale evaluation of the supply-demand balance for various energy sources and mixes." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2016. http://www.theses.fr/2016GREAU036/document.
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Dans un contexte de changement climatique, l'intégration des énergies renouvelables aux systèmes électriques est un enjeu majeur des décennies à venir. Les énergies liées au climat (photovoltaïque, éolien et hydro-électricité) peuvent contribuer à une réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Cependant, elles sont fortement intermittentes et la production électrique associée peine à répondre à la demande.Cette étude vise à évaluer la faisabilité météorologique du développement d'un système de production électrique basé sur les sources d'énergie liées au climat (CRE - Climate-Related Energy). Nous considérons uniquement leurs variations spatiotemporelles et supposons un équilibre entre production et demande moyennes. Nous avons développé CRE-Mix, une chaîne de modèles permettant de convertir les variables météorologiques en chroniques énergétiques. Cet outil permet l'estimation des fluctuations spatiotemporelles de production et de demande énergétiques résultant de la variabilité hydro-climatique. Pour une sélection de régions en Europe, nous évaluons la facilité d'intégration des CRE en fonctions de leur cohérence temporelle avec la demande. Pour chaque source d'énergie et de multiples mix énergétiques nous estimons successivement (i) le taux de pénétration moyen (PE), qui quantifie la proportion de demande satisfaite sur une longue période et (ii) les caractéristiques des périodes de faible pénétration pour lesquelles le taux journalier de demande satisfaite reste bas pendant plusieurs jours consécutifs. Les résultats montrent que les systèmes basés sur une seule source ont du mal à répondre à la demande et souffrent de longues périodes de faible PE, en raison de leur variabilité temporelle. Cependant, une combinaison d'énergies, l'utilisation de systèmes de stockage ou l'échange d'énergie entre régions, permettent d'augmenter fortement la fiabilité des CRE (PE proche de 100% et rares/courtes périodes de faible pénétration). Cette étude, basée sur 30 ans, a été étendue à l'ensemble de XXème siècle afin d'évaluer les fluctuations basse fréquence des CRE résultant de la variabilité interne du climat. De longues chroniques régionales de production et de demande ont été générées grâce au développement d'une méthode de descente d'échelle statistique basée sur les analogues atmosphériques (SCAMP). Cet outil génère des scénarios météorologiques multivariés physiquement cohérents. Les résultats montrent que les variations basse fréquence des CRE sont influencées par les grandes oscillations océano-climatiques. De plus, on montre que les variations multi-décennales de l'hydro-électricité sont particulièrement importantes avec notamment une différence en PE supérieure à 15% d'une décade à l'autre et des périodes de faible pénétration aux caractéristiques très irrégulières.Enfin, nous évaluons la pertinence de systèmes électriques basés sur les CRE en climat futur. SCAMP permet de produire des scénarios régionaux de variables météorologiques à partir des modèles climatiques issus des simulations CMPI5. Pour les précipitations, les tendances simulées par SCAMP sont en désaccord avec de nombreuses études. L'application de SCAMP en "modèle parfait" semble indiquer que le lien entre les situations atmosphériques de grande échelle et les précipitations totales, mais également convectives et stratiformes, change en climat futurIn the context of climate change, the integration of renewables in electric power systems is one of the main challenges of the coming decades. Climate-Related-Energy sources (CRE - solar, wind and hydro power) can contribute to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions. However, they exhibit large spatio-temporal fluctuations and the associated intermittent electricity generation often leads to an incomplete supply-demand balance. This study aims to evaluate the meteorological feasibility of developing an electric power system that would only rely on CRE sources. We focus on the multi-scale spatio-temporal fluctuations of these renewables by assuming a balance between mean electricity production and mean energy load. We develop and use CRE-mix, a suite of models able to convert meteorological conditions into CRE time series. It gives an assessment the spatio-temporal fluctuations of power production and energy demand, resulting from the multi-scale hydro-climatic variability. For a set of European regions, we assess the ease of integration of CRE sources, regarding their temporal consistency with energy demand. For each CRE source and multiple CRE mixes, we consider in turn (i) the mean penetration rate (PE), which quantifies the proportion of satisfied demand over a long period and (ii) the characteristics of low penetration periods, defined as sequences of days for which the penetration rate is lower than a given threshold. This study proves that single CRE sources have difficulty to meet the energy demand and suffer from long low penetration periods, due to their multi-scale temporal variations. However, using some integrating factors (multi-sources, storage systems, inter-regions electric power transmission), efficiently improves the reliability of CRE-based power systems with PE rates close to 100% and rare low penetration periods.These analyses, based on a 30-yr period, are extended to the entire 20th century in order to assess the low frequency fluctuations of CRE sources resulting from the internal variability of climate. Long regional series of production and demand, were generated thanks to the development of a statistical downscaling method based on atmospheric analogues (SCAMP). It simulates physically-consistent multivariate series of meteorological parameters. The results demonstrate that these fluctuations are related to some large scale oceano-climatic oscillations. Moreover, the multi-decennial variations of hydro power are particularly large: changes in PE rates exceeding 15% from one decade to the other and uneven energy droughts characteristics.Finally, we evaluate the relevance of the CRE sources under future climate conditions. SCAMP is used to produce downscaled projections of meteorological drivers of CRE sources for the 21st century from a selection of CMIP5 climate models. The resulting scenarios for precipitation are not consistent with other studies focusing of the future modifications of this variable in Europe. The application of SCAMP in a perfect-model approach seems to indicate that the large-scale-meteorology/local-precipitation relationship is changing in the course of the 21st century, for all total, convective and stratiform precipitation
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Nandini-Weiß, Sri Durgesh [Verfasser], Matthias [Akademischer Betreuer] Prange, Michael [Gutachter] Schulz, and Martin [Gutachter] Claussen. "Hydroclimate variations in the Caspian Sea region from the late Quaternary to the future : a model perspective / Sri Durgesh Nandini-Weiß ; Gutachter: Michael Schulz, Martin Claussen ; Betreuer: Matthias Prange." Bremen : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen, 2019. http://d-nb.info/119900359X/34.
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Collins, James A. [Verfasser], Gerold [Akademischer Betreuer] Wefer, and Michael [Akademischer Betreuer] Schulz. "Glacial to Holocene Hydroclimate in Western Africa: Insights from Organic and Major-Element Geochemistry of Hemipelagic Atlantic Ocean Sediments / James A. Collins. Gutachter: Gerold Wefer ; Michael Schulz. Betreuer: Gerold Wefer." Bremen : Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Bremen, 2011. http://d-nb.info/1071898515/34.
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