Academic literature on the topic 'HOUSING EMERGENCY'
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Journal articles on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Garay, Rose Marie, and Nidia Pino G. "Acoustic Behavior in Three Types of Housing: Brick Social Housing, Structural Insulated Panel (SIP) Emergency Housing and Mediagua Emergency Housing." Revista de la construcción 18, no. 1 (April 2019): 96–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.7764/rdlc.18.1.96.
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DELLA VALLE, CLAUDIA. "VERSO L’INCERTEZZA DELL’ABITARE. LE SOLUZIONI ABITATIVE DI EMERGENZA NEL POST-DISASTRO DELL’APPENNINO CENTRALE (2016-2017)." Rivista Italiana di Antropologia Applicata 8, no. 2 (November 2022): 104–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32054/2499-1848-2022-2-5.
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Far beyond the physical consequences of the impact, a socio-natural disaster raises important issues about the territories and the affected population’s future, mainly if it involves marginal areas such as those of the central Apennines, hit by a long seismic sequence between 2016 and 2017. Proper housing emergency management, capable of offering timely and adequate responses in the immediate emergency, above all in the medium-long term, is both a challenge and a crucial point for any post-disaster policy. This research proposes an analysis of Soluzioni Abitative di Emergenza (SAE) as the institutional response to the housing emergency caused by the 2016-2017 earthquakes: temporary and prefabricated houses installed in the municipalities affected by the disaster, which will offer housing to the displaced population until the end of the reconstruction. Through ethnographic methodological tools and discursive interviews, the research investigates temporary and emergency living and highlights that the relationship between the inhabitants and space, especially the domestic one, is complex, articulated and sometimes contradictory. Keywords: earthquake, home, disaster, temporariness, housing emergency
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Mellinger, J. C. "Emergency Housing for Frail Older Adults." Gerontologist 29, no. 3 (June 1, 1989): 401–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/geront/29.3.401.
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Schneiderman, Inna, Vladimir Grishanov, Alla Guzanova, and Nadezhda Nozdrina. "The problems of dilapidated and emergency housing in Russia." Population 22, no. 4 (December 30, 2019): 18–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/1561-7785-2019-00036.
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The relevance of this work is determined by the growth of negative trends associated with the increasing share of dilapidated and emergency housing in the housing stock of Russia. The elimination of such housing is a priority of the housing policy. The aim of the study was to identify the causes of the sharp increase in uninhabitable housing and to assess the prospects of solving this problem in the near future. The rapid accumulation of such housing is associated with low rates of demolition or decommissioning, insufficient capital repairs and shortage of newly commissioned housing. The scientific novelty of the article is as follows. Using the methodology of regional typologies construction, the authors estimate the dynamics of changes in the situation with housing unfit for living in different regions of the country for 2010-2016; the number and housing supply of the population living in such fund are calculated. Resettlement of citizens from dilapidated housing is one of the most pressing issues relating primarily to the poor and socially vulnerable segments of the population. Many resettled people are provided with obviously low quality housing. Scenarios for changing the share of dilapidated and emergency housing have been developed, including calculations of the number of people that will have to live there under certain housing policy options. Application of the scenario modeling method made it possible to draw original conclusions about the prospects of reducing the time of liquidation of uninhabitable housing, which differ from similar results of other researchers. In the preparation of forecasts, the measures of the state housing policy in 2013-2017 aimed at the elimination of emergency housingwere taken into account. Forecasts with such approaches are used for the first time. The results of the study can be used in the work of Federal and local authorities, in the implementation of the Federal project "Ensuring sustainable reduction of uninhabitable housing", as well as in scientific works on this issue.
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Parker-Graham, Christine A., June Ang, Eva Marie QuijanoCardé, Linda A. Deanovic, Matthew Stone, John E. Madigan, Monica Aleman, and Esteban Soto. "Fish evacuation and emergency sheltering during wildfire disasters." Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association 260, no. 7 (April 1, 2022): 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.2460/javma.21.05.0258.
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Wildfires are a serious and expanding threat in western North America, and wildfire encroachment on human populations leads to widespread evacuation and emergency housing operations for residents and their companion animals and livestock. Veterinarians are frequently part of wildfire response efforts and are called upon to assist in rescue, evacuation, and emergency housing operations as well as to provide medical care for evacuated animals. Although veterinarians are likely familiar with the principles of transporting and housing terrestrial animals, emergency response for aquatic companion animals presents unique logistic challenges. Veterinarians familiar with aquatic animal evacuation, housing, and care prior to a wildfire response can extend the scope of disaster recovery. This report offers general guidance for rescuing, evacuating, housing, and caring for aquatic animals in the wake of a wildfire.
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Avilova, Tatiana, and Natalya Cherezova. "Existing problems of emergency housing and their impact on the development of the city." E3S Web of Conferences 244 (2021): 06008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202124406008.
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The article deals with the problems of emergency housing, which must be solved comprehensively, using all possible available mechanisms and tools. The existing approaches to the elimination of the problem of emergency housing are considered and proposals are made to improve the housing policy and mechanisms for its implementation.
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Avilova, Tatiana, Ludmila Oznobihina, and Anna Ermakova. "Eliminating the problem of emergency housing using the example of the city of Omsk." E3S Web of Conferences 164 (2020): 08010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202016408010.
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The article considers and analyzes the problems of emergency housing in the city of Omsk. The existing approaches to the elimination of the problem of emergency housing and proposals for improving housing policy and mechanisms for its implementation are considered. As a result of the study, we came to the conclusion that the problems that exist today in the field of emergency housing need to be addressed comprehensively, using all kinds of available mechanisms and tools. It turns out that through the adoption and implementation of certain measures, we will not be able to resolve and resolve problems in various aspects of this issue.
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Imamura, Toru, Hiroyuki Furuuchi, Hiroyuki Motohashi, Koji Sato, and Ichiro Takeda. "Development of emergency exit sign with thinner housing." JOURNAL OF THE ILLUMINATING ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF JAPAN 73, Appendix (1989): 40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2150/jieij1980.73.appendix_40.
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Hartwell, Stephanie, Martha Burt, Laudan Y. Aron, Edgar Lee, and Jessie Valente. "Helping America's Homeless: Emergency Shelter or Affordable Housing?" Contemporary Sociology 31, no. 2 (March 2002): 175. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3089503.
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Szylvian, Kristin M. "Industrial Housing Reform and the Emergency Fleet Corporation." Journal of Urban History 25, no. 5 (July 1999): 647–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/009614429902500502.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Konkle, Amy S. "Biblical compassion and the emergency housing of single pregnant women." Theological Research Exchange Network (TREN), 1985. http://www.tren.com.
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Cepeda, Rodrigo. "Wood-based 3D printing for space innovation in emergency and social housing production." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/43464.
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Since the 1900s, urban population settlements have experienced explosive growth.
To respond to this urban population growth, suburban areas and industrialized housing production were developed. However, today, a series of negative impacts from these solutions has been detected.
While suburban areas create big morphological changes to the city, causing problems of transport, fragmentation, and social connectivity, industrialized prefabrication methods result in a mass repetition of identical houses that elicits social and physiological problems of individuality and community belonging.
The case of Chile is notable because of its 86% urban population and its stable social housing response to homelessness. In addition, the country is subjected to frequent natural disasters, and the government has to respond quickly with emergency and social housing solutions.
However, calls to the attention that being an exporting country of forest products, wood is not considered a building material solution for long-term houses.
This research analyses the historical and current development of emergency and social housing in Chile, the country’s forestry production, and the characteristics of local wood products.
Advantages and disadvantages are examined along with highlighted case studies, and a new emergency and social housing architectural strategy is proposed.
To meet this need for massive emergency and social housing, a flexible, fast, and optimized building system is required.
Digital fabrication technologies are presented as a basis for rethinking mass housing production, focusing on a prefabricated full scale 3D printing process; a parametric manufacturing relationship between structure, thermal performance and material composition is proposed.
In the initial stage with structural simulations, this research explores the optimization possibilities of the architectural elements with the relationship proposed, and suggests possible applications and future developments.
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Tan, de Bibiana Jason. "Housing first and emergency department utilization among homeless individuals with mental illness in Vancouver." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/44041.
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BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impact of Housing First at 12 months on emergency department (ED) use among homeless individuals with mental illness in Vancouver.
METHODS: Homeless individuals with mental illness enrolled in the At Home/Chez Soi study were randomly assigned to a Housing First model of housing and support or Usual Care. ED data from St. Paul’s Hospital and Mount Saint Joseph Hospital were linked for 382 participants in Vancouver. Negative binomial regression was used to compare the Rate of Visits and logistic regression was used to compare the Presenting Complaints, Discharge Diagnosis, and Disposition for visits from participants in Housing First or Usual Care.
RESULTS: 60% of all participants visited the ED at least once at 12 months and the annual Rate of Visits was 3.32 (SD=6.21). After adjusting for the baseline rate and other potential confounders, the Rate of Visits at 12 months was 0.66 times less (95% CI: 0.47-0.93) for Housing First participants compared to Usual Care.
For all participants at 12 months, mental health and substance use-related reasons accounted for 30% of Presenting Complaints and 34% of Discharge Diagnoses. The majority of visits (87%) resulted in discharge from the ED, including 9% left against medical advice or without being seen, and 13% resulted in care advance. For Housing First participants compared to Usual Care at 12 months, the odds ratio for a mental health and substance use-related Presenting Complaint (OR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.64-1.51) or Discharge Diagnosis (OR=1.18, 95% CI: 0.75-1.86) was not statistically significant, nor was the odds ratio for a care advance Disposition (OR=1.21, 95% CI: 0.68-2.15).
CONCLUSION: This study observed lower ED utilization for Housing First, consistent with findings from previous evaluations in other settings, which suggests that this model should be expanded for homeless individuals with mental illness similar to those recruited in this study.
This study also observed that many participants experienced acute mental health issues resulting in visits to the ED, and visited the ED without receiving care, which suggests there are opportunities to improve care for this population in the ED and other settings.
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Orr, Donald Joseph. "The effects of changes to social housing allocation on non-emergency applicants in London." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2018. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/the-effects-of-changes-to-social-housing-allocation-on-nonemergency-applicants-in-london(370ecb50-333a-4a83-9d11-85017bc717d4).html.
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Since the 1980’s, investment by the UK government into the construction of new social rented housing has dwindled significantly. As a result of Right to Buy selloffs, the demolition of aging stock, and a relative lack of replacement social new-build, the per capita supply of social rented housing has dropped to a new low. At the same time, demand for these limited properties has risen drastically, particularly in London. What social rented housing resources do remain have also been fragmented between council-administered choice-based lettings schemes and housing association waiting lists. This research has sought to examine the effects of these changes on the lives of people applying to social rented housing using semi-structured interviews with participants from housing association waiting lists. 50 housing applicants were interviewed from across London. Interviews focussed on participants’ housing history, the process and outcomes of their various applications, and the effects of their continued failure to gain entry into social rented housing. Findings indicate participants to be fundamentally ignorant both of the growing scarcity of social rented housing and of the mechanics of its distribution. Many had made maladaptive decisions based on these misunderstandings. The majority of participants were overcrowded, overworked and/or occupying poor housing. Many felt that something had been taken from them, vaguely aware that earlier generations had an easier time accessing “good housing” but unable to explain why that was. Social rented housing in the United Kingdom has changed from a more widely available form of aid to an emergency program rationed only to those who are in emergency need. This would appear to have left vulnerable those who are in non-critical need. The aim of this research has been to explore that vulnerability through narrative.
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Voros, Jamie L. "One size does not fit all : innovation in emergency housing with a focus on Nepal 2015." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/106409.
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Thesis: S.B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture, 2016.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 71-72).
Abstract Every year millions of people are displaced due to natural disasters and very primitive transitional shelters, or 't-shelters', exist to provide semi-permanent housing. Many t-shelter designs do not cater to all the needs of their inhabitants and are only functional in the short term, often leaving many people relying on t-shelters for housing in an unsafe and unsanitary environment. This thesis addresses the problem of people needing housing and of unsafe transitional housing by presenting a new design process and ultimately a t-shelter design specifically for the victims of the 2015 earthquakes in Nepal in the Kathmandu area. The process involves three key elements; identifying the specific needs of the displaced people, analyzing what materials and labor are available and ensuring that the shelter will be used as intended and therefore remain safe. The resulting shelter design harnesses the structural strength of the geodesic dome, the simplicity of reciprocal joinery and strong yet lightweight nature of bamboo. The effectiveness of the proposed new design process is demonstrated through checking the resulting shelter design meeting measurable outcomes like cost, structural integrity and skill level required to construct.
by Jamie L. Voros.
S.B.
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Terim, Belgin Çıkış Şeniz. "A study on "temporary post disaster housing unit" constructed with -light gauge steelframing-(LGSF) system/." [s.l.]: [s.n.], 2004. http://library.iyte.edu.tr/tezler/master/mimarlik/T000480.pdf.
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Shapiro, Nicholas Edward. "Spaces of uneventful disaster : tracking emergency housing and domestic chemical exposures from New Orleans to national crises." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2014. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:b42720e6-185b-492b-a83b-aea9de773cd7.
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In this thesis, I examine the politics, poetics, and logics of uneventful human harm in the United States by tracking the life and afterlife of a chemically contaminated emergency housing unit. In 2005, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) deployed 120,000 trailers to the US Gulf Coast to house those displaced by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Chemical testing, spurred by reports of inhabitant illness, revealed elevated levels of formaldehyde emanating from the plywood walls of the trailers. After being reclaimed by the federal government and beginning in 2010, the FEMA trailers were resold at auction to every corner of the country. Resold trailers gravitated to precarious populations at the poles of rural capital accumulation—from oil patches in North Dakota to reservations in Washington. These trailers serve as an exceptional substrate for an investigation into the anatomy of the uneventful as they once approached the apex of eventfulness as a national controversy and now reside in the shadows of the everyday. This thesis apprehends and theorizes these dispersed and ordinary instruments of domestic harm across multiple registers: epistemological, material, spatial, and affective. I examine how failures of matter and meaning shaped and patterned the lives of those who inhabited the FEMA trailers as their lives became framed by chemical off-gassing, architectural insufficiency, material deterioration, and electrical short-circuiting. Crossing scales and venues, I interrogate the modalities of scientific incomprehension that erode the perception, admittance, or substantiation of mass chemical exposure. These technical processes, along with cultural horizons of eventfulness and the chronicity of disaster, foreclosed avenues of toxic harm accountability. These ‘economies of abandonment’ bring into relief the contemporary biopolitical priorities in which the FEMA trailer—an ostensible protection from harm that fosters illness—becomes possible. FEMA trailer residents attend to the minute, gradual, and ongoing symptoms of exposure to discern the reality and magnitude of residential contamination. The body of the exposed becomes both an epistemic instrument and, across time, the means of making low-level, chronic, and cruddy chemical exposures into eventful instances that drive individuals to action.
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Gunnarsson, Emelie, and Robert Andersson. "Underlag för flexibla och hållbara akutbostäder i Sverige." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för byggteknik (BY), 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-97645.
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Syftet med examensarbetet är att ta fram ett förslag som är flexibelt, hållbart och kananvändas vid produktion av akutbostäder för hemlösa i Sverige. I vidare studier beaktasmaterial och ytteffektivitet av akutbostäder för strukturellt hemlösa i samhället.Resultatet visar på att en flexibel bostad med smarta servicelösningar kan användas tillmer än bara en akutbostad för hemlösa. Den kan även användas som hyresbostad,seniorboende eller annan typ av boende som behövs för tillfället. Genom intervjuer medfastighetsägare och myndighetspersoner har en kravlista sammanställts baserat på derasarbetserfarenheter. Examensarbetet ger enbart ett förslag som kan användas som underlag vid uppförandet avakutbostäder eftersom inga egna beräkningar har behandlats. För att få ett tillförlitligtresultat bör arkitekter och andra involverade konsulter inom byggbranschen intervjuas.The purpose of this project is to develop a flexible and sustainable proposal forproduction of emergency housing for homeless people in Sweden. This study will alsosuggest what should be considered in terms of materials and solutions in flexible,emergency housing for structurally homeless in society.The result shows that a flexible housing can be used for more than just emergencyhousing for the homeless. It could also be used as rental housing, senior housing or otherhousing needed. Through interviews with property owners and government officials, a listof requirements has been compiled based on their work experience.The thesis can be used as a foundation for further investigation in construction of emergency housing. Architects and other consultants involved in the building industryshould be interviewed to obtain a reliable result.
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Chitela, Yuvaraj R. "Sustainable Ecofriendly Insulation Foams for Disaster Relief Housing." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2017. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc984180/.
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Natural disasters are affecting a significant number of people around the world. Sheltering is the first step in post-disaster activities towards the normalization of the affected people's lives. Temporary housing is being used in these cases until the construction of permanent houses are done. Disposal of temporary housing after use is leading to a significant environmental impact because most of them are filled with thermally insulative polymer foams that do not degrade in a short period. To reduce these problems this work proposes to use foams made with compostable thermoplastic polylactic acid (PLA) and degradable kenaf core as filler materials; these foams are made using CO2 as blowing agent for insulation purposes.
Foams with PLA and 5%, 10% and 15% kenaf core were tested. Different properties and their relations were examined using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermal conductivity, mechanical properties, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), x-ray μ-computed tomography (μ-CT) and building energy simulations were done using Energy Plus by NREL. The results show that mechanical properties are reduced with the introduction of kenaf core reinforcement while thermal conductivity display a noticeable improvement.
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Berglund, Gabriella, and Petra Porthén. "Access to adequate housing - a way out of poverty? : A minor field study of the construction of emergency houses in Peru." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-84764.
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Background: The lack of access to adequate housing is a major problem in many developing countries. One of the countries where the housing deficit is a big problem is Peru. The housing deficit in the country can be estimated to more than one million; a number that represents almost 15% of the country’s households. Un Techo Para Mi País (UTPMP) strives to improve this difficult housing situation by constructing emergency houses in the human settlements and thereby improving the situation for the people living in extreme poverty in Peru. Aim: The purpose of this study is to investigate if the construction of emergency houses could be a means of poverty reduction in Peru. The impact of improved housing conditions on a household’s standard of living and economic situation is evaluated, as well as the results of UTPMP’s activities. Completion: The collection of secondary data took place in Sweden, while the primary data was collected during a two months’ minor field study in Lima, Peru. Interviews with households benefited with an emergency house through UTPMP were conducted and observations were made by participating in UTPMP’s activities. Conclusion: According to the results of our study, the access to adequate housing has had a positive effect on the household’s standard of living, but has left the economic situation unchanged. The type of action taken by UTPMP to alleviate poverty should be considered as an appropriate approach and the construction of emergency houses as a means of poverty reduction in Lima.Bakgrund: Bristen på tillgång till en fullgod bostad är ett stort problem i många utvecklingsländer. Ett av de länder där det råder stor bostadsbrist är Peru. Underskottet på bostäder uppskattas uppgå till mer än en miljon, en siffra som representerar nästan 15% av landets hushåll. Un Techo Para Mi País (UTPMP) strävar efter att förbättra den svåra bostadssituationen genom att konstruera nödbostäder i slumområden och därmed förbättra situationen för de hushåll som lever i extrem fattigdom i Peru. Syfte: Syftet med studien är att undersöka om konstruktionen av nödbostäder skulle kunna utgöra ett verktyg för att minska fattigdomen i Peru. Effekten av förbättrade boendeförhållanden på ett hushålls levnadsstandard och ekonomiska situation utvärderas, liksom resultaten av UTPMP:s aktiviteter. Utförande: Insamlingen av sekundärdata genomfördes i Sverige, medan primärdatan samlades in under en två månader lång fältstudie i Lima, Peru. Intervjuer med hushåll som har fått en bostad via UTPMP utfördes, och observationer gjordes genom att delta i UTPMP:s aktiviteter. Slutsats: Resultaten av vår studie visar att tillgången till en fullgod bostad har positiva effekter på ett hushålls levnadsstandard, men att dess ekonomiska situation förblir oförändrad. Den typ av åtgärd utförd av UTPMP bör ses som en lämplig sådan, och konstruktionen av nödbostäder kan betraktas som ett tillvägagångssätt för att minska fattigdomen i Lima.
Antecedentes: La falta de acceso a una vivienda adecuada es un problema grave en muchos países menos desarrollados. Uno de los países donde el déficit habitacional es un gran problema es el Perú. Se puede estimar que dicho déficit asciende a más de un millón, un número que representa casi el 15% de los hogares del país. La organización Un Techo Para Mi País (UTPMP) se esfuerza para mejorar esta situación a través de la construcción de viviendas de emergencia en los asentamientos humanos y de esta manera, mejorar la situación de las personas que viven bajo condiciones de extrema pobreza en el Perú. Objetivo: El propósito del presente estudio es investigar si la construcción de viviendas de emergencia podría ser una medida de reducción de la pobreza en el Perú. El impacto de mejores condiciones de vivienda en la situación de vida y económica del hogar es evaluado, así como los resultados de las actividades del UTPMP. Metodología: La recopilación de datos secundarios se llevó a cabo en Suecia, mientras que los datos primarios fueron obtenidos en Perú durante un estudio de campo de dos meses en Lima. Entrevistas con familias beneficiadas con una casa de emergencia a través del UTPMP fueron realizadas y se hicieron observaciones respectivas al participar en las actividades del UTPMP. Conclusión: Conforme a los resultados de nuestro estudio, el acceso a una vivienda adecuada ha tenido un efecto positivo en el nivel de vida del hogar, pero ha dejado la situación económica sin cambios. El tipo de acción tomada por el UTPMP debe ser considerada como un enfoque apropiado para aliviar la pobreza, y la construcción de viviendas de emergencia como una medida de reducción de la pobreza en Lima.
Books on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Rural emergency home program. [S.l.]: Alberta Municipal Affairs, Rural Housing Branch, 1990.
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Authorities, Association of London. Housing the homeless: An emergency programme. London: Association of London Authorities, 1986.
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Canada. Public Health Agency of Canada., ed. Emergency Lodging Service. [Ottawa, Ont.]: Public Health Agency of Canada, 2007.
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Division, Canada Emergency Services, ed. Emergency lodging service. [Ottawa]: Emergency Services Division, Medical Services Branch, 1994.
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Corporation, Kitchell, ed. Emergency housing: A search for quick solutions. Phoenix, Ariz. (1707 E. Highland, Phoenix 85016): Kitchell, 1995.
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Scotland, Accounts Commission for. Emergency repairs to council houses. Edinburgh: Accounts Commission, 1998.
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Scotland, Accounts Commission for. Emergency repairs to council houses. Edinburgh: Accounts commission for Scotland, 1998.
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Kaspar, Fred. Behelfsheime für Ausgebombte: Bewältigung des Alltäglichen im "Totalen Krieg" : Münsters Bürger ziehen aufs Land. Petersberg: Imhof, 2011.
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Hábitat transitorio: Vivienda para emergencias por desastres en Colombia : lineamientos y percepciones. [Bogotá]: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Sede Bogotá, 2006.
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Weeber, und Partner Büro für Stadtplanung und Sozialforschung. Wohnungsengpässe-- Provisorien und Stufenlösungen. Bonn: Das Bundesministerium, 1992.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Stewart, Amanda, and Megan Sandel. "Housing Instability and Quality." In Social Emergency Medicine, 255–71. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65672-0_15.
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Siddiqi, Anooradha Iyer. "Humanitarian Homemaker, Emergency Subject." In Architecture and the Housing Question, 39–58. London: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781351182966-4.
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McNabb, David E., and Carl R. Swenson. "Infrastructure and Housing Emergency Governance." In Disaster Management Policies and Practices, 237–56. New York: Routledge, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003310280-17.
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Matysek-Imielińska, Magdalena. "State of Emergency and Everyday Life in Żoliborz." In Warsaw Housing Cooperative, 247–75. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23077-7_10.
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Basciu, Martina, Claudia Loggia, Vittorio Tramontin, and Cristina Pusceddu. "A Sustainable Housing Unit for Emergency Areas." In Sustainability in Energy and Buildings, 75–84. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-27509-8_6.
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Cascone, Stefano, Antonio Gagliano, Francesco Nocera, Renata Rapisarda, and Gaetano Sciuto. "Sustainable Housing Units for Emergency: Innovative Materials and Construction Techniques." In Sustainability in Energy and Buildings 2020, 407–17. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-8783-2_34.
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Glennon, Joseph, Michael Curran, and John P. Spillane. "Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) and Their Effect on Social Housing in Ireland: A Case Study Review." In Climate Emergency – Managing, Building , and Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals, 59–69. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79450-7_6.
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Salaheldin Ismail Elsayed, Doaa. "Perceiving Urban Resilience Within Post-quake Recovering Processes. An Experimental Approach for Emergency Housing in Emilia Romagna, Italy." In Sustainable Urban Development and Globalization, 333–49. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-61988-0_26.
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Powell, Benjamin. "Learnings from the Evolution of the University of Suffolk EcoLab: Adopting People-Centred Design Approaches to Encourage the Mass Uptake of Energy Transition Solutions in the Housing Sector." In Climate Emergency – Managing, Building , and Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals, 85–92. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-79450-7_8.
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Etxezarreta, Aitziber, Santiago Merino, Gala Cano, Kees Dol, and Joris Hoekstra. "The emergence of housing cooperatives in Spain." In Affordable Housing Governance and Finance, 25–40. Abingdon, Oxon ; New York, NY : Routledge, 2019. |: Routledge, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9781315112350-2.
Full textConference papers on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Brandhorst, Henry W., and Julie A. Rodiek. "Solar-powered, modular, emergency/disaster response housing." In 2009 34th IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC 2009). IEEE, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/pvsc.2009.5411659.
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Rondinel-Oviedo, Daniel R., Alejandra Acevedo De Los Rios, Sebastian Wendorff Esteves, Dima Albadra, and Natalia Paszkiewicz. "Diagnostic of Habitability of Emergency Temporary Housing in Peru." In 2019 IEEE 1st Sustainable Cities Latin America Conference (SCLA). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/scla.2019.8905517.
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Zhukova, Daria Vladimirovna, and Nadezhda Alexandrovna Tarkina. "EMERGENCY HOUSING INSURANCE IN RUSSIA: RELEVANCE AND EVALUATION OF PROSPECTS." In Russian science: actual researches and developments. Samara State University of Economics, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46554/russian.science-2020.03-1-793/798.
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The article assesses the relevance and considers the legal framework for the regulation of housing insurance against emergencies in Russia. Identified problems associated with amendments to the Law of the Russian Federation "On the organization of insurance business in the Russian Federation" in relation to home insurance, and also proposed measures to address them.
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Yılmaz, Zelal. "Emergency Architecture: Van and Onagawa Example." In 4th International Conference of Contemporary Affairs in Architecture and Urbanism – Full book proceedings of ICCAUA2020, 20-21 May 2021. Alanya Hamdullah Emin Paşa University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.38027/iccaua2021311n7.
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The need for temporary housing in natural disasters is an important issue for people to develop. During this period, post-disaster accommodation needs are often planned with temporary housing applications that require rapid installation and where the minimum needs of inhabitant can be met. Decisions to be taken in the residential area; can range from the choice of urban relations to the architectural design of temporary residences and can affect the resident's quality of life. A temporary home that will resist a recurring disaster should be a design suitable for climate conditions, close to the adequacy of basic needs in containers, security, and access to urban infrastructure, sustainability of materials, sociality, health and education facilities. In this context, environmental and architectural evaluation of Van and Onagawa container settlements planned after the major earthquakes in 2011 reveals the essence and importance of the study. It also aims to analyse and compare architectural and urban decisions in these settlements, creating a checklist for projects made with the principle of planning and design before future disasters.
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CORBIN, TANYA BUHLER. "LESSONS LEARNED AFTER DISASTER? EMERGENCY SHELTER AND HOUSING POLICY AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA." In DISASTER MANAGEMENT 2017. Southampton UK: WIT Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.2495/dman170011.
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Yan, Jinhai. "Notice of Retraction Land supply, developer strategy and housing price: Evidence from Beijing." In 2011 2nd IEEE International Conference on Emergency Management and Management Sciences (ICEMMS). IEEE, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemms.2011.6015785.
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Palmer, Alyssa. "The Role of Child Protective Services and Emergency/Transitional Housing in Child School Engagement." In AERA 2022. USA: AERA, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.3102/ip.22.1890969.
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Beauchamp, Alaina. "222 The spatial relationship between violent crime, blighted housing, and emergency department utilization in Houston, TX." In Society for the Advancement of Violence and Injury Research (SAVIR) 2020 conference abstracts. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/injuryprev-2020-savir.136.
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Rodgers, SE, W. Poortinga, R. Bailey, R. Johnson, F. Dunstan, D. Berridge, and RA Lyons. "OP56 Effects of national housing quality standards on hospital emergency admissions: a quasi-experiment using data linkage." In Society for Social Medicine, 61st Annual Scientific Meeting, University of Manchester, 5–8 September 2017. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/jech-2017-ssmabstracts.55.
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Loginov, Evgeny, and Valeriy Ivanov. "DIGITAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE CONTROL OF URBAN AGREEMENT UNDER EMERGENCY AND SPECIAL PERIODS." In MODERN CITY: POWER, GOVERNMENT, ECONOMY. Digital Transformation State and Municipal Administration. Perm National Research Polytechnic University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.15593/65.049-66/2021.18.
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The problems of adaptation of energy infrastructure management systems of urban agglomerations to work in emergency situations and in a special period are analyzed. It is proposed to form secure data centers serving the most important infrastructure systems of urban agglomerations, primarily in the field of energy and housing and communal services. The considered technological solutions make it possible to obtain the most optimal ratio of performance and cost of the system in relation to the problem of ensuring the reliability of power supply to urban consumers, taking into account possible critical impacts of a natural and man-made nature, including possible information network attacks.
Reports on the topic "HOUSING EMERGENCY"
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Lindenlaub, Adam, Jeff O'Brien, Dan Persky, and Elaine Ditsler. Finding Transportation Solutions for the Emergency Housing Project. University of Iowa, May 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.17077/q0i0-tzrz.
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Franzese, Oscar, Mary Beth Lascurain, and Gary J. Capps. Federal Emergency Management Agency Mobile Housing Unit Running Gear Testing: Final Report. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), August 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1560433.
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Winandy, Jerrold E., John F. Hunt, Christopher Turk, and James R. Anderson. Emergency housing systems from three-dimensional engineered fiberboard : temporary building systems for lightweight, portable, easy-to-assemble, reusable, recyclable, and biodegradable structures. Madison, WI: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2737/fpl-gtr-166.
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Urfels, Marie. From state support to market and financialization measures in crisis times: A comparative literature review of the Swedish and German housing systems. Malmö University, Faculty of Culture and Society (KS), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.24834/isbn.9789178772605.
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This paper present the findings of an extensive literature review on the housing systems in Germany and Sweden. The literature review majorly focuses on the rental housing sector but also touches upon other segments of the housing market, especially the cooperative housing sector. The report thus provides a general overview and situates the rental sector in the wider context of the overall housing market in the two countries. The paper adds valuable knowledge about the large differences in the post-war responses to the housing shortage in Germany and Sweden. While Sweden responded with a universal off-market approach to housing, (West) Germany implemented a dualist housing system within a social market economy. Despite differences in past solutions, the contemporary problems seem to be similar. The report concludes that, in the search of a response to the current housing crisis, Germany sees a re-emergence of the state, while Sweden’s next moves are uncertain.
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Journeay, M., J. Z. K. Yip, C. L. Wagner, P. LeSueur, and T. Hobbs. Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Canada. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/330295.
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While we are exposed to the physical effects of natural hazard processes, certain groups within a community often bear a disproportionate share of the negative consequences when a disaster strikes. This study addresses questions of why some places and population groups in Canada are more vulnerable to natural hazard processes than others, who is most likely to bear the greatest burden of risk within a given community or region, and what are the underlying factors that disproportionally affect the capacities of individuals and groups to withstand, cope with, and recover from the impacts and downstream consequences of a disaster. Our assessment of social vulnerability is based on principles and analytic methods established as part of the Hazards of Place model (Hewitt et al., 1971; Cutter, 1996), and a corresponding framework of indicators derived from demographic information compiled as part of the 2016 national census. Social determinants of hazard threat are evaluated in the context of backbone patterns that are associated with different types of human settlement (i.e., metropolitan, rural, and remote), and more detailed patterns of land use that reflect physical characteristics of the built environment and related functions that support the day-to-day needs of residents and businesses at the community level. Underlying factors that contribute to regional patterns of social vulnerability are evaluated through the lens of family structure and level of community connectedness (social capital); the ability of individuals and groups to take actions on their own to manage the outcomes of unexpected hazard events (autonomy); shelter conditions that will influence the relative degree of household displacement and reliance on emergency services (housing); and the economic means to sustain the requirements of day-to-day living (e.g., shelter, food, water, basic services) during periods of disruption that can affect employment and other sources of income (financial agency). Results of this study build on and contribute to ongoing research and development efforts within Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) to better understand the social and physical determinants of natural hazard risk in support of emergency management and broader dimensions of disaster resilience planning that are undertaken at a community level. Analytic methods and results described in this study are made available as part of an Open Source platform and provide a base of evidence that will be relevant to emergency planners, local authorities and supporting organizations responsible for managing the immediate physical impacts of natural hazard events in Canada, and planners responsible for the integration of disaster resilience principles into the broader context of sustainable land use and community development at the municipal level.
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Asian Development Outlook Supplement December 2021. Asian Development Bank, December 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/fls210504-3.
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This publication provides updated economic growth forecasts for developing Asia. It downgrades forecasts by 0.1% to 7.0% for 2021 and 5.3% for 2022.The main risk to the outlook remains a resurgence in cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), especially given the emergence of a fast-spreading variant. Other risks include a protracted correction in the housing market that could induce an unexpectedly sharp slowdown in the PRC, rising inflation, and persistent global supply disruption.
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Monetary Policy Report - April 2022. Banco de la República, June 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2022.
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Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%). For its part, the increase in inflation excluding food and regulated items (4.5%) would be the result of shocks in supply and external costs that have been more persistent than expected, the effects of indexation, accumulated inflationary pressures from the exchange rate, and a faster-than-anticipated tightening of excess productive capacity. Within the basket excluding food and regulated items, external inflationary pressures have meaningfully impacted on goods prices (6.4%), which have been accelerating since the last quarter of 2021. Annual growth in services prices (3.8%) above the target rate is due primarily to food away from home (14.1%), which was affected by significant increases in food and utilities prices and by a rise in the legal monthly minimum wage. Housing rentals and other services prices also increased, though at rates below 3%. Forecast and expected inflation have increased and remain above the target rate, partly due to external pressures (prices and costs) that have been more persistent than projected in the January report (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2). Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accentuated inflationary pressures, particularly on international prices for certain agricultural goods and inputs, energy, and oil. The current inflation projection assumes international food prices will increase through the middle of this year, then remain high and relatively stable for the remainder of 2022. Recovery in the perishable food supply is forecast to be less dynamic than previously anticipated due to high agricultural input prices. Oil prices should begin to recede starting in the second half of the year, but from higher levels than those presented in the previous report. Given the above, higher forecast inflation could accentuate indexation effects and increase inflation expectations. The reversion of a rebate on value-added tax (VAT) applied to cleaning and hygiene products, alongside the end of Colombia’s COVID-19 health emergency, could increase the prices of those goods. The elimination of excess productive capacity on the forecast horizon, with an output gap close to zero and somewhat higher than projected in January, is another factor to consider. As a consequence, annual inflation is expected to remain at high levels through June. Inflation should then decline, though at a slower pace than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy rate wouldcontribute to pushing inflation and its expectations toward the target on the forecast horizon. Year-end inflation for 2022 is expected to be around 7.1%, declining to 4.8% in 2023. Economic activity again outperformed expectations. The technical staff’s growth forecast for 2022 has been revised upward from 4.3% to 5% (Graph 1.3). Output increased more than expected in annual terms in the fourth quarter of 2021 (10.7%), driven by domestic demand that came primarily because of private consumption above pre-pandemic levels. Investment also registered a significant recovery without returning to 2019 levels and with mixed performance by component. The trade deficit increased, with significant growth in imports similar to that for exports. The economic tracking indicator (ISE) for January and February suggested that firstquarter output would be higher than previously expected and that the positive demand shock observed at the end of 2021 could be fading slower than anticipated. Imports in consumer goods, retail sales figures, real restaurant and hotel income, and credit card purchases suggest that household spending continues to be dynamic, with levels similar to those registered at the end of 2021. Project launch and housing starts figures and capital goods import data suggest that investment also continues to recover but would remain below pre-pandemic levels. Consumption growth is expected to decelerate over the year from high levels reached over the last two quarters. This would come amid tighter domestic and external financial conditions, the exhaustion of suppressed demand, and a deterioration of available household income due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue to recover, while the trade deficit should tighten alongside high oil and other export commodity prices. Given all of the above, first-quarter economic growth is now expected to be 7.2% (previously 5.2%) and 5.0% for 2022 as a whole (previously 4.3%). Output growth would continue to moderate in 2023 (2.9%, previously 3.1%), converging similar to long-term rates. The technical staff’s revised projections suggest that the output gap would remain at levels close to zero on the forecast horizon but be tighter than forecast in January (Graph 1.4). These estimates continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions, external financial conditions, Colombia’s electoral cycle, and the COVID-19 pandemic. External demand is now projected to grow at a slower pace than previously expected amid increased global inflationary pressures, high oil prices, and tighter international financial conditions than forecast in January. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and its inflationary effects on prices for oil and certain agricultural goods and inputs accentuated existing global inflationary pressures originating in supply restrictions and increased international costs. A decline in the supply of Russian oil, low inventory levels, and continued production limits on behalf of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) can explain increased projected oil prices for 2022 (USD 100.8/barrel, previously USD 75.3) and 2023 (USD 86.8/barrel, previously USD 71.2). The forecast trajectory for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate has increased for this and next year to reflect higher real and expected inflation and positive performance in the labormarket and economic activity. The normalization of monetary policy in various developed and emerging market economies, more persistent supply and cost shocks, and outbreaks of COVID-19 in some Asian countries contributed to a reduction in the average growth outlook for Colombia’s trade partners for 2022 (2.8%, previously 3.3%) and 2023 (2.4%, previously 2.6%). In this context, the projected path for Colombia’s risk premium increased, partly due to increased geopolitical global tensions, less expansionary monetary policy in the United States, an increase in perceived risk for emerging markets, and domestic factors such as accumulated macroeconomic imbalances and political uncertainty. Given all the above, external financial conditions are tighter than projected in January report. External forecasts and their impact on Colombia’s macroeconomic scenario continue to be affected by considerable uncertainty, given the unpredictability of both the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the pandemic. The current macroeconomic scenario, characterized by high real inflation levels, forecast and expected inflation above 3%, and an output gap close to zero, suggests an increased risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. This scenario offers very limited space for expansionary monetary policy. Domestic demand has been more dynamic than projected in the January report and excess productive capacity would have tightened more quickly than anticipated. Headline and core inflation rose above expectations, reflecting more persistent and important external shocks on supply and costs. The Russian invasion of Ukraine accentuated supply restrictions and pressures on international costs. This partly explains the increase in the inflation forecast trajectory to levels above the target in the next two years. Inflation expectations increased again and are above 3%. All of this increased the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored and could generate indexation effects that move inflation still further from the target rate. This macroeconomic context also implies reduced space for expansionary monetary policy. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) continues to adjust its monetary policy. In its meetings both in March and April of 2022, it decided by majority to increase the monetary policy rate by 100 basis points, bringing it to 6.0% (Graph 1.5).
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Monetary Policy Report - January 2022. Banco de la República, March 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2022.
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Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias