Academic literature on the topic 'Housing crisi'

The author investigates the universe of the young people in the Italian context, starting from the political impediments which affect the job placement and, consequently, delay the acquisition of economic independence and housing autonomy, and considering the cultural conditions of a society that "holds" children in their maternal houses and inhibits their transition to adult life and the formation of their own family. The portrait of a community with a low birth rate emerges as an unequivocal sign of a personal and social crisis. But still in young people survives and persists a hidden desire for family which is a yearning for planning as an ontological category of human beings. Therefore, the hope and commitment at the same time are the definition of adult education pathways, focused on parenting, birth and care education.

Within the framework of the research and innovation strategy RIS3 “Sustainable Living” (POR-FSE, funded by the Veneto Region), for the improvement of the resilience and adaptation capacity of the Veneto territory to environmental crises and emergencies, the subject of the contribution returns the results of the participatory experimentation of the project H.E.L.P. Veneto ‘ High-efficiency Emergency Living Prototypes Veneto - Sustainable adaptive residences for temporary stay in environmental emergencies. The research concerns the design of a minimum flexible emergency living module, replicable on a large scale, multifunctional, sustainable, powered by off-grid systems and integrated into the built environment. The housing unit uses timber, a material linked to the local building tradition, whose prefabricated modular reversibility follows principles of circular reuse. Moreover, the constructive adaptability of the interior spaces is reflected in a “liquid space” capable of transforming itself according to the needs of the occupants. The paper introduces a form of participatory design of the emergency housing module, based on the engagement of small and large companies, related to different segments of the construction market, a leading sector in the economy of Veneto. The participatory approach borrows from Architectural Technology the tools needed to understand the characteristics of the settlement system, the potential of the project and the value of scientific stakeholder engagement in the process. Using the Soft System Methodology, direct investigation protocols have been constructed relating to the performance of the living unit. Using Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA), the results of the experimented survey (large-scale questionnaires) were decoded, interpreted and systematised. The processing of the answers allowed the stakeholders to validate the potential of the proposed module and, at the same time, to be informed about its characteristics. The innovation of the method lies precisely in the modelling phase, which makes it possible to integrate the results of the hard and soft data analyses and to make it clear how participation plays an essential role in the process of designing and validating the proposed module. Nell’ambito della strategia di ricerca e innovazione RIS3 “Sustainable Living” (POR-FSE, finanziato dalla regione Veneto), per il miglioramento della capacità di resistenza e di adattamento del territorio veneto a crisi ed emergenze ambientali, l’oggetto del contributo restituisce gli esiti della sperimentazione partecipata del progetto H.E.L.P. Veneto High efficiency Emergency Living Proto- types Veneto – Residenze adattive sostenibili per la permanenza temporanea in regime di emergenza ambientale. La sperimentazione riguarda la progettazione di un modulo minimo abitativo di emergenza flessibile, repli- cabile a larga scala, polifunzionale, sostenibile con impianti a funzionamento off-grid e integrato nell’ambiente costruito. L’unità abitativa utilizza il legno, materiale legato alla tradizione costruttiva locale, la cui reversibilità modulare prefabbricata segue principi di riuso circolare. Inoltre, l’adattabilità costruttiva degli ambienti interni si riflette in uno “spazio liquido” capace di trasformarsi in base alle esigenze dell’abitare. Il contributo propone una forma di progettazione partecipata del modulo abitativo emergenziale, basata sull’engagement delle realtà aziendali di piccole e grandi dimensioni, relative ai diversi segmenti di mercato dell’edilizia, settore trainante della regione Veneto. L’approccio partecipativo mutua dalla Tecnologia dell’Architettura gli strumenti di conoscenza atti alla comprensione delle caratteristiche del sistema insediativo, delle potenzialità del progetto e del valore dell’engagement scientifico degli stakeholder nel processo. Utilizzando la Soft System Methodology sono stati costruiti dei protocolli di indagine diretta che combinano la conoscenza prestazionale dei processi insediativi nell’unità ambientale. Mediante la Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA) sono stati decodificati, interpretati e sistematizzati i risultati della survey sperimentata (questionari ad ampia scala). L’elaborazione delle risposte ha fatto sì che il sapere esperto degli stakeholder validasse le potenzialità del modulo proposto informandosi, al contempo, sulle caratteristiche dello stesso. L’innovazione del metodo risiede proprio nella fase di modellazione, la quale permette di integrare i risultati delle analisi dei dati hard e quelle dei dati soft, e di rendere chiaro come la partecipazione svolga un ruolo essenziale nel processo di animazione e validazione del modulo proposto.

The author investigates the "youth universe" in Italy; specifically, the hard relationship between it and politics and institutions, characterized by a lack of trust and credibility. The question of the absence of work makes the Italian case unique and exemplary: young people are precarious, inadequately paid. Unemployment, the late age to the first job and atypical contracts impoverish young people of the potential wealth they could carry around: innovation, change, planning, growth and future; all that exclude them from the country's decision-making processes. Thus, housing autonomy and economic independence are postponed, hence the transition to adulthood. Deprived of the fixed points that guided previous generations, today's young people do not recognize themselves into any ideology, do not feel represented by any political force. An investigation carried out close to the elections of March 4, 2018 confirmed what has been exposed so far and noted that the consequent discontent found a possibility of expression and change in the neophyte Movimento 5 Stelle. Therefore, it is appropriate to ask ourselves what are the motivations and conditions that have led young people, disappointed and disillusioned, to move away from "traditional politics". It is urgent to promote a cultural revolution to give young Italians the role of protagonists of present, backed by tradition but making space to the new and welcoming the future. Which role does the family play as the primary agency for political education? What proposal can make pedagogy of family educational relationships?

O presente estudo trata do financiamento da habitação social no Brasil no período de 2006 a 2012. Para isso, a metodologia envolveu a pesquisa teórica e do orçamento público da União. A institucionalização da política habitacional se desenvolveu num contexto de tomada do Estado como indutor de uma macroeconomia sob o ideário do social-liberalismo. Nessa perspectiva, ocorreu a reestruturação do mercado imobiliário e sob a crise econômica de 2008 a implementação de medidas anticíclicas para minimizá-la. Para a promoção da habitação social tivemos o Fundo Nacional de Habitação de Interesse Social orientado a satisfazer as necessidades habitacionais da população. Contudo, este foi paulatinamente desfinanciado e esvaziado de seu sentido político. Em 2009, foi criado o Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida com caráter de privilegiamento do produtor privado, o que possibilita a punção de fundo público e a redução da responsabilidade do Estado sob a habitação social como direito social. Palavras-chave: Crise do capital, Política de habitação social, Orçamento público.CAPITAL CRISIS AND PUBLIC SOCIAL HOUSING BUDGET IN BRAZIL Abstract: This study deals the financing of social housing in Brazil between the years 2006 to 2012. For this purpose, the methodology involved the theoretical research and the Union's public budget. The institutionalization of the housing policy developed in a context of state taken as inducer of macroeconomics under the social liberalism of ideas. From this perspective, it occurred the restructure of the housing market and under the economic crisis of 2008 measures were implemented to minimize it. For the promotion of social housing we had the National Funding for housing of social interesting oriented to meet the housing needs of the population. However, this was gradually non-funding and withdraw from its political sense. In 2009, it was created the Programa Minha Casa Minha Vida with character of the private producer privileging to continue taking in the public fund and the State’s to reduce under the politic of social housing as a social right. Key words: Capital Crisis, Social housing policy, Public budget.

Tras la Crisis Financiera Global, diferentes autores han defendido la posible emergencia de un nuevo modelo de sistema de vivienda denominado neoliberal tardío. Este nuevo modelo estaría principalmente caracterizado por la pérdida de importancia de la vivienda en régimen de propiedad, especialmente en los hogares jóvenes y con niveles de renta bajos; así como por el cambio en las políticas de vivienda hacia el fomento del alquiler a precio de mercado. Por sistemas de vivienda hemos definido el conjunto de políticas y arreglos institucionales a través de los cuales se configuran unas formas de acceso y provisión de vivienda. Históricamente, el estudio de los sistemas de vivienda ha sido abordado por posiciones cercanas al análisis de los modelos de Estado de bienestar vinculadas a la corriente inaugurada por Esping Andersen. Desde este lugar, se ha relacionado el cambio en los sistemas de vivienda con los cambios acontecidos en el seno de los Estados de bienestar, sin prestar demasiada atención a los que han tenido que ver con las transformaciones en el proceso de acumulación del sistema capitalista. Con el llamado proceso de financiarización y el auge de la vivienda en propiedad, diversos autores próximos al enfoque de la economía política se empiezan a ocupar de esta cuestión. Este trabajo se ubica en este mismo enfoque. El objetivo de este trabajo es verificar la teoría del cambio hacia el modelo neoliberal tardío en un caso concreto. La estrategia metodológica será, por tanto, el estudio de caso. El caso seleccionado es el sistema de vivienda español. Este trabajo está dividido en seis capítulos más uno de conclusiones. El primero está dedicado a conocer el estado de la cuestión y ubicar nuestro trabajo dentro de la literatura especializada. En el segundo, se expone la estrategia metodológica. En el tercero, se contextualiza el caso. En este sentido, el sistema de vivienda español ha sido frecuentemente incluido dentro del modelo mediterráneo-familiarista. No obstante, a la luz de los cambios producidos durante la década de los 80 y 90, el sistema experimentó un proceso de transición hacia el modelo neoliberal. Sus principales características han sido el dominio de la vivienda en propiedad, un parque ínfimo de vivienda social, un mercado del alquiler semidesregulado y unas políticas de vivienda dirigidas a favorecer la construcción y compra de vivienda en propiedad. En los capítulos cuarto, quinto y sexto exponemos los resultados y el análisis de los mismos. Cada uno de los capítulos está dedicado a una de las tres dimensiones con las que se ha operacionalizado el concepto de sistema de vivienda: políticas sectoriales de vivienda, formas de provisión de vivienda y régimen de tenencia. Finalmente se exponen as conclusiones de la investigación, en donde se incluye incluimos la agenda de investigación futura que de ellas se deriva.
After the Global Financial Crisis, different authors have defended the possible emergence of a new model of the so-called “late neoliberal housing system“. This new model would be mainly characterized by the loss of importance of housing ownership, especially in young people and households with low income levels; as well as by the change in housing policies towards the promotion of the market rent. By housing systems we have defined the set of policies and institutional arrangements through which some forms of access and provision of housing have been established. Historically, the study of the housing systems has been addressed by positions close to the analysis of the models of welfare states linked to the current of thought lead by Esping Andersen. From this point of view, the change in housing systems has been related to changes within the welfare state However, not much attention has been paid to changes that have had to do with the transformations in the process of accumulation of the capitalist system. With the so-called process of financialization and the housing boom in property, various authors close to the approach of the political economy are starting to take on this issue. This work is based on the same approach. The aim of this work is to verify the theory of change towards the late neo-liberal model in a specific case. The methodological strategy will therefore be the case study. The selected case is the Spanish housing system. This work is divided into six chapters, plus one of conclusions. The first is dedicated to know the state of the question and place our work within the specialized literature. In the second chapter, we expose the methodological strategy. The third is dedicated to contextualize the selected case. In this sense, the Spanish housing system has often been included within the Mediterranean-familiy-oriented model. However, in light of the changes during the decade of the 80s and 90s, the system underwent a process of transition to the neoliberal model. Its main characteristics have been the predominance of home ownership, a extremely small social housing proportion, a semi-deregulated rental market and housing policies aimed at favoring the construction and purchase of home ownership. In chapters 4, 5 and 6 it’s been presented the results and analysis of the same. Each of the chapters is dedicated to one of the three dimensions with which we have operationalized the concept of housing system: sectoral policies for housing, forms of provision of housing and tenure forms. Finally, we present the findings of the investigation where we include the agenda for future research deriving from them.

A Espanya, a finals de l’any 2007, amb l’esclat de la bombolla immobiliària, s’inicià una intensa i persistent crisi econòmica. Aquells fets van marcar l’inici d’una acumulació d’adversitats per a centenars de milers de famílies que havien adquirit amb finançament hipotecari un habitatge al llarg de la darrera dècada. La prioritat de les polítiques públiques d’habitatge ja no era trobar fórmules per a disposar d’un habitatge en condicions de sostenibilitat econòmica familiar, sinó que la configuració legal de les execucions hipotecàries va comportar que mantenir-se a l’habitatge i evitar el llançament és convertís en la principal de les preocupacions. El canvi de paradigma es va produir en poc temps, mentre que la reacció de les administracions va ser, en canvi, excessivament lenta i ineficient. El context tampoc ha estat favorable per les famílies que havien accedit a un habitatge en règim de lloguer. Si bé les conseqüències de perdre l'habitatge habitual en lloguer fruit d'un procés judicial són, en general, menys pernicioses que perdre'l en un procediment d'execució hipotecària, l'elevat nombre de desnonaments posa de relleu que es produeix en molts casos un sobreesforç de la renda familiar disponible per a mantenir un habitatge en lloguer. En el marc de la post-bombolla, en l’articulació de l’estratègia per a reduir els llançaments i aconseguir un escenari de futur caracteritzat per la desaparició dels desnonaments i fer efectiu el dret a l’habitatge, les diferents administracions públiques han creat al llarg d'aquests anys una autèntica bombolla legislativa plena d’instruments, especialment coercitius, per aconseguir disposar d’habitatges per a solucionar l’emergència residencial. L’ampliació i redefinició de la funció social de la propietat ha estat clau per a intentar mobilitzar habitatges buits del parc immobiliari. En especial han estat objectiu d’aquestes polítiques els habitatges que havien quedat en mans de les entitats financeres, les seves filials immobiliàries, i els fons de gestió d’actius immobiliaris. Però la regulació de totes aquestes mesures ha comportat també unes intenses desavinences –resoltes pel Tribunal Constitucional- entre les administracions estatal i autonòmiques, sobre la capacitat competencial a l’hora de regular aquests instruments, enfrontament que és objecte d’anàlisi en aquest treball. Aquesta investigació radiografia tant les mesures regulades des dels diferents nivells de l’administració, com els seus resultats, fent una incidència especial en els instruments i la legislació que s’ha aplicat a Catalunya. En aquest sentit, són objecte d’especial atenció la mediació (obligatòria), les taxes (l'impost d'habitatges buits), les multes coercitives i sancions, el tanteig i retracte, i l'expropiació forçosa. En síntesi, en l’actual escenari de post-crisi, més de 10 anys després, la majoria de mesures, les de l’Estat, i ara la de les CCAA, resten plenament efectives, i es posa de relleu en aquesta investigació quines són eficients per resoldre l’emergència residencial que apareix encara de forma cronificada per la insuficiència de recursos dels que disposa l’administració per a poder fer front a la necessitat d’habitatge de la ciutadania en situació de vulnerabilitat.
In Spain, at the end of 2007, with the outbreak of the real estate bubble, an intense and persistent economic crisis began. That event marked the beginning of an accumulation of adversity for hundreds of thousands of families who had acquired housing with mortgage financing over the last decade. The priority of public housing policies was no longer to find ways to provide housing in conditions of economic sustainability for the families. The legal configuration of foreclosures implied that staying home and avoiding the eviction became the main concern. The change of paradigm occurred in a short time, while the reaction of the administrations was, however, excessively slow and inefficient. The context has also not been positive for families who had access to rented housing. Although the consequences of losing the usual rental housing resulting from a judicial process are generally less harmful than losing it in a foreclosure procedure, the high number of evictions highlights that, in many cases, there is a surplus in the family income available to maintain a rental property. In the framework of the post-bubble, the strategy to reduce the evictions and achieve a future scenario characterized by the disappearance of evictions and to guarantee the right to housing, the different public administrations have created, throughout these years, an authentic legislative bubble full of instruments, especially coercive, to get housing available to solve the residential emergency. The extension and re-definition of the social function of the property has been the key to mobilize empty houses of the real estate park. In particular, the purpose of these policies has been the housing that was in the hands of financial entities, their real estate subsidiaries, and real estate asset management funds. But the regulation of all these measures has also led to intense disagreements -resolved by the Constitutional Court- between the state and autonomous administrations, on the competent capacity when regulating these instruments, a confrontation that is the object of analysis in this work. This investigation radiographs both the measures regulated from the different levels of the administration, as well as its results, making a special attention on the instruments and legislation in Catalonia. In this regard, the mediation (mandatory), the rates (the tax of empty houses), the coercive fines and sanctions, the retention and retraction, and the forced expropriation are object of special attention. In the current scenario of post-crisis, more than ten years later, most of the measures, those of the State, and now those of the autonomous communities, remain fully effective, and this research is highlighted in those that are efficient to solve the residential emergency, which still appears chronic due to insufficient resources of the administration to cope with the need of housing for vulnerable citizens.

Introduzione: uno sguardo di insieme sull'origine della crisi del 2008 e come cambia il mondo dell’immobiliare dopo la crisi 1. Effetti della crisi sulla finanziabilità di attività di costruzione e acquisti: il timore degli intermediari 2. Effetti della stretta su tassi, importi e requisiti. Re-impostare le condizioni di ac-cesso ai mutui al fine di evitare rischi sistemici 3. Finanziamento bancario all'edilizia: nuove formule 4. Finanziamenti per l’acquisto da parte dei privati: nuove formule 5. Edilizia bio e finanziabilità 6. Edilizia residenziale pubblica: funzione sociale e strumento di compensazione 7. Ristrutturare l’esistente, le abitazioni abbandonate nei centri storici 8. Conclusioni

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo general avanzar en el conocimiento sobre los efectos territoriales de la crisis hipotecaria en España y cómo responden a la crisis de la vivienda las personas afectadas, explorando en concreto la ciudad de Barcelona. El análisis se realiza, en primer lugar, con una revisión bibliográfica de la crisis de la vivienda y movimientos sociales; en segundo lugar, estudiando la distribución geográfica de la población afectada por la crisis de las hipotecas durante la primera década post-crisis (2008-2017) mediante el análisis de bases de datos oficiales del Consejo General del Poder Judicial (CGPJ) y el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) y con datos de la Plataforma de Afectados por la Hipoteca (PAH) de Barcelona; y finalmente, analizando los procesos y las estrategias de empoderamiento y movilización colectiva de recursos sociales de la población afectada a través de trabajo de campo con métodos etnográficos realizado entre octubre de 2014 y julio de 2018 en la PAH de Barcelona. Los resultados permiten observar una mayor incidencia de los desahucios, a nivel estatal, en las provincias del litoral mediterráneo y, en el caso de la ciudad de Barcelona, en los distritos de Nou Barris y Ciutat Vella. En cuanto a las estrategias de empoderamiento que ha utilizado la PAH para convertir la población afectada en activistas generadores de un nuevo discurso de contrapoder, destacan la importancia de las asambleas colectivas, la acción directa con prácticas de performance, y la importancia de los medios de comunicación internos.
This research aims to advance the knowledge about the territorial effects of the mortgage crisis in Spain and how the people affected respond to the housing crisis, and exploring concretely the city of Barcelona. The analysis is carried out, first of all, with a bibliographic review of the crisis of housing and social movements; secondly, studying the geographical distribution of the population affected by the mortgage crisis during the first post-crisis decade (2008-2017) through the analysis of official databases of the General Council of the Judiciary (CGPJ) and the National Statistics Institute (INE) and with data from the Platform of People Affected by Mortgages (PAH) of Barcelona, a grassroots organization that intends to stop evictions; and finally, analyzing the processes and the strategies of empowerment and collective mobilization of social resources of the affected population through an ethnographic methodology fieldwork realized between October 2014 and July 2018 in the PAH of Barcelona. The results allow us to observe a greater incidence of evictions, at the state level, in the provinces of the Mediterranean coast and, in the case of the city of Barcelona, in the districts of Nou Barris and Ciutat Vella. Regarding the empowerment strategies used by the PAH to turn the affected population into activists generating a new, counteracting discourse, I detected the importance of collective meetings, direct action with performance practices, and the importance of the own media.

Aquesta tesi estudia el discurs mediàtic sobre habitatge i la seva evolució entre els anys 2008 i 2019 en mitjans editats des de Catalunya, una de les comunitats autònomes més afectades pels desnonaments i on han nascut els principals moviments en defensa d’aquest dret durant aquest període, primer la Plataforma d’Afectats per la Hipoteca (PAH) el 2009 i posteriorment el Sindicat de Llogateres, el 2017. L’anàlisi parteix de la perspectiva androcèntrica/no androcèntrica, examinant com influeixen en el discurs informatiu els diferents actors involucrats en la qüestió de l’habitatge (centres de poder polític i econòmic, persones afectades per desnonaments, moviments socials, etc.). Pel que fa als moviments socials, la tesi se centra en estudiar l’estratègia de comunicació i la incidència mediàtica de la PAH. La problemàtica de l’habitatge és d’especial rellevància en el context català i espanyol. Si bé les dificultats per accedir a aquest dret són d’escala global, per la conversió de l’habitatge en un bé financer als mercats internacionals, en el cas espanyol aquests reptes es veuen agreujats pels dèficits d’habitatge social i assequible heretats de la Dictadura franquista, en què es va gestar el model preferent d’accés a l’habitatge en propietat a partir del crèdit hipotecari. En el camp de la comunicació, la principal aportació de la investigació és que fa un examen ampli, global i diacrònic del tractament periodístic del tema al llarg de més d’una dècada, comparant, a més, l’enfocament informatiu de diaris tradicionals amb el de mitjans alternatius. Aquest model periodístic s’ha vist reforçat des de 2008 arran del debilitament de la premsa tradicional. La tesi parteix de la metodologia documental per estudiar el context socioeconòmic i polític en què se circumscriu el discurs mediàtic sobre habitatge i els antecedents històrics més rellevants, així com de l’anàlisi de contingut, que s’aplica tant a informacions periodístiques com a missatges de Twitter de la PAH de Barcelona (amb adequacions metodològiques segons el canal). S’han analitzat un total de 657 unitats comunicatives (285 de La Vanguardia, 267 de El Periódico i 105 de la Directa) i 307 tuits de la PAH de Barcelona. També s’han fet entrevistes qualitatives semiestructurades a set activistes del moviment social. Els resultats globals de l’anàlisi mostren que el discurs dels dos mitjans tradicionals és més proper als centres de poder que a les persones afectades per l’emergència habitacional i als moviments socials que defensen els seus drets, en major mesura a La Vanguardia (més propera al sector immobiliari-financer) que a El Periódico (més proper al poder polític). Per contra, la Directa, mitjà independent, reflecteix essencialment la postura dels moviments socials organitzats durant tot el període d’anàlisi i dona escassa visibilitat als actors econòmics i institucionals. Els resultats diacrònics mostren que els moviments socials en defensa del dret a l’habitatge han guanyat incidència mediàtica des del naixement de la PAH l’any 2009, respecte al període previ, en què no existia un contrapoder ciutadà fort en aquesta matèria. A més, el debilitament de la legitimitat dels centres de poder arran de la crisi hipotecària de 2008 va contribuir a l’expansió del relat contrahegemònic de la PAH entre l’opinió pública, tant a través de les xarxes socials com a partir de la seva relació amb els mitjans de comunicació, que la plataforma també ha considerat estratègica des dels seus inicis. És durant el cicle de mobilitzacions del 15M (2011-2013) quan el moviment pel dret a l’habitatge va assolir major influència sobre els mitjans tradicionals, si bé, a partir de 2017, també s’ha convertit en font informativa de referència sobre lloguers.
Esta tesis estudia el discurso mediático sobre vivienda y su evolución entre los años 2008 y 2019 en medios editados desde Cataluña, una de las comunidades autónomas más afectadas por los desahucios y donde han nacido los principales movimientos en defensa de este derecho durante este periodo: la Plataforma de Afectados por la Hipoteca (PAH) en 2009 y el "Sindicat de Llogateres" (Sindicato de Inquilinas) en 2017. El análisis parte de la perspectiva androcéntrica/no androcéntrica, examinando cómo influyen en el discurso informativo los diferentes actores involucrados en la cuestión de la vivienda (centros de poder político y económico, personas afectadas por desahucios, movimientos sociales, etc.). En cuanto a los movimientos sociales, la tesis se centra en estudiar la estrategia de comunicación y la incidencia mediática de la PAH. La problemática de la vivienda es de especial relevancia en el contexto catalán y español. Si bien las dificultades para acceder a este derecho son de escala mundial, por la conversión de la vivienda en un bien financiero en los mercados internacionales, en el caso español, se añaden a estos retos globales los déficits de vivienda social y asequible heredados de la Dictadura franquista, en la que se gestó el modelo preferente de acceso a la vivienda en propiedad a partir del crédito hipotecario. En el campo de la comunicación, la principal aportación de la investigación es que hace un examen amplio, global y diacrónico del tratamiento periodístico del tema a lo largo de más de una década, comparando, además, el enfoque informativo de diarios tradicionales con el de medios alternativos. Este modelo periodístico se ha visto reforzado desde 2008 a raíz del debilitamiento de la prensa tradicional. La tesis parte de la metodología documental para estudiar el contexto socioeconómico y político en el que se circunscribe el discurso mediático sobre vivienda y los antecedentes históricos más relevantes, así como del análisis de contenido, que se aplica tanto a informaciones periodísticas como a mensajes de Twitter de la PAH de Barcelona (con adecuaciones metodológicas según el canal). Se han analizado 657 unidades comunicativas (285 de La Vanguardia, 267 de El Periódico y 105 de la Directa) y 307 tuits de la PAH de Barcelona. También se han hecho entrevistas cualitativas semiestructuradas a siete activistas del movimiento social. Los resultados globales del análisis muestran que el discurso de los dos medios tradicionales es más próximo a los centros de poder que a las personas afectadas por la emergencia habitacional y los movimientos sociales, en mayor medida en La Vanguardia (más próxima al sector inmobiliario-financiero) que en El Periódico (más próximo al poder político). Por el contrario, la Directa, medio independiente, refleja esencialmente la postura de los movimientos sociales organizados durante todo el periodo de análisis y da escasa visibilidad a los actores económicos e institucionales. Los resultados diacrónicos muestran que los movimientos sociales en defensa del derecho a la vivienda han ganado incidencia mediática desde el nacimiento de la PAH en 2009, respecto al periodo previo, cuando no existía un contrapoder ciudadano fuerte. Además, el debilitamiento de la legitimidad de los centros de poder a raíz de la crisis de 2008 contribuyó a la expansión del relato contrahegemónico de la PAH entre la opinión pública, tanto a través de las redes sociales como a partir de su relación con los medios, que la plataforma también ha considerado estratégica desde sus inicios. Es durante el ciclo de movilizaciones del 15M (2011-2013) cuando el movimiento por el derecho a la vivienda logró mayor influencia sobre los medios tradicionales, si bien, a partir de 2017, también se ha convertido en fuente informativa de referencia sobre alquileres.
This thesis studies the media discourse on housing and its evolution between 2008 and 2019 in publications edited in Catalonia, one of the autonomous regions within Spain most affected by evictions and where the main movements that defend this right were born: the PAH (Platform for People Affected by Mortgages) in 2009 and the "Sindicat de Llogateres" (Union of Tenants) in 2017. The analysis is based on the androcentric/non-androcentric perspective and examines the media influence of the different agents involved in the housing issue (political and economic power centers, people affected by evictions, social movements, etc.). Regarding social movements, this thesis is focused on the communication strategy and the media influence of the PAH. The housing problem is particularly relevant in the Catalan and Spanish context. Although the challenges to ensuring the right to housing exist around the world, because of the conversion of housing into a financial asset in international markets, in Spain, there are additional problems due to the lack of social and affordable housing inherited from the Franco dictatorship. During this period, the regime established the preferential model of access to housing based on the purchase of owned housing through mortgage loans. In the communication field, the main contribution of the research is the comprehensive, global and diachronic examination of the media discourse on housing for over a decade. In addition, the analysis compares the media discourse of traditional newspapers with the informative approach of this topic in independent media. This type of media has grown significantly since 2008 after the weakening of the traditional press.  The thesis uses the documentary method to study the socioeconomic and political context in which the media discourse on housing is circumscribed and the most relevant historical background. Moreover, the research uses the content analysis method to examine not only news and articles but also tweets from PAH's Twitter account (with methodological adaptations depending on the channel). For this research, 657 communication units (285 from La Vanguardia, 267 from El Periódico and 105 from Directa) and 307 tweets by PAH Barcelona were analyzed. In addition, seven PAH Barcelona activists were interviewed using the semi-structured qualitative interview methodology. The overall results of the analysis indicate that the media discourse in traditional newspapers reflects more the interests of power centers than those of people affected by eviction and those of social movements. This trend is more accentuated in La Vanguardia (whose media discourse mainly reflects the interests of the real estate and financial sectors) than in El Periódico (whose media discourse mainly reflects the interests of political power). On the contrary, Directa, an independent publication, essentially reflects the point of view of organized social movements throughout the entire analysis period and gives limited informative relevance to the economic and institutional agents. The diachronic results indicate that social movements that defend the right to housing have gained media influence since the birth of the PAH in 2009, compared to the previous period, when there was no strong citizen counterpower. In addition, the weakening of the power centers legitimacy due to the economic crisis contributed to the expansion of PAH’s counter-hegemonic narrative among the public opinion, both through social networks and also through their relationship with the media, which has been considered strategic by the platform since its foundation. The period in which the right to housing movement achieved the greatest media influence was the 15-M Movement (2011-2013). Nevertheless, since 2017, it has become a reference source of information about renting.
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. Programa de Doctorat en Comunicació i Periodisme

This Ph.D. dissertation contributes by shedding new light on three topics that significantly impact housing in urban areas, using fine-grained data. Chapter 2 studies how Airbnb affects a city's housing market. For that, we apply several regression-based approaches that exploit the timing and geography of the entry of Airbnb in Barcelona to estimate the effects of this platform on housing markets. We use high-quality microdata on both rents and prices and combine these data with information on the location of Airbnb activity within the city. The results show that Airbnb activity in Barcelona has increased both rents and housing prices, with larger effects for prices than for rents. Results indicate that, for a neighborhood with the average Airbnb activity in the city, rents have increased by 1.9\%, while transaction prices have increased by 4.6\% and posted prices by 3.7\%. However, in the most touristy parts of the city, the effects of Airbnb are substantially higher. In neighborhoods in the top decile of the Airbnb activity distribution, rents are estimated to increase by as much as 7\%. In contrast, increases in transaction and posted prices are as high as 17\% and 14\%, respectively. Chapter 3 estimates the long-term effects of an increase in the unemployment rate at graduation time on housing tenure and affordability. I exploit the unemployment rate at the time of college graduation as an exogenous income shock to the individual, for a large sample of college graduates since 1960 across Europe. This strategy has been explored extensively for career outcomes, but so far, not for housing tenure and affordability. These two outcomes are essential, as they are key determinants of an individual's welfare. The results show that a one percentage point rise in the unemployment rate at the time of graduation leads to a 1.5 percentage point increase in the probability of living with parents one year after graduation. Additionally, it decreases the probability of renting by 1.02 percentage point and of home-ownership by 0.45 percentage point. Worse initial labor market conditions translate into worse affordability ratios for homeowners and renters due to lower household income and stable rents or prices. Effects are persistent over time and are still present ten years after graduation. I develop an overlapping generations model to link income shocks to younger cohorts to housing tenure and affordability changes. This model provides several predictions. Mainly, that rigidity on the rental market is largely responsible for whether the labor market's welfare shock is absorbed or amplified by the housing market. This rigidity will result from an outside option for landlords, a feature widely documented in the literature. In particular, if rental markets are rigid, an income shock to young agents will create a shift away from renting and ownership in favor of the parental home. Additionally, this shock worsens affordability for both renters and owners, as their income drops while housing costs do not. This scenario leads to significant welfare losses for young cohorts, while older agents become relatively wealthier and are better off. I find that housing aid policies such as the \textit{Aide Personnalisée au Logement} (APL) in France can help mitigate the income shock by enabling young agents to afford to rent. However, these policies only improve young agents' welfare when implemented in rigid rental markets, pointing towards the importance of identifying the correct conditions for applying these policies. Chapter 4 studies the dynamics of land development in Spanish municipalities having experienced a flood over the last 30 years. For that, we use changes in surface, distance to flood zones and water bodies, and elevation of new development compared to the year before a flood event. Our empirical strategy relies on the assumption that conditional on municipality and year fixed-effects, the timing and the extent of a flood is as good as random. We also study the impact of floods on several other economic indicators, including employment and migration patterns. Our main results indicate that, on average, experiencing a flood does not affect new development. Development takes place at a pace similar to that of the year previous to the flood. Additionally, we find that new construction does not take place farther away from the flood zones nor on higher ground. When analyzing development's final use, we find that residential buildings are being built at the same rate as before the flood. A flood event does not significantly affect other key economic variables, such as unemployment or migration. Nonetheless, municipalities with low development levels in the decade before the flood experience a housing boom after the event. New development increases permanently by 25\% compared to the year previous to the flood for these cities. Cities having experienced high levels of development before the flood experience a 27\% permanent drop in new construction compared to before the event. Finally, we study an EU directive mandating EU member states to identify flood-prone areas, named ARPSIs. In the Spanish case, this directive identified areas that were not previously considered dangerous. Still, it was not accompanied by any regulation designed to restrict future development. We compare areas that were newly declared as potentially hazardous to areas close to water bodies but were not affected by the policy. Overall, signaling areas as potentially high-risk does not deter development from taking place near such areas. We can draw three main lessons from this research in terms of policy design. First, home-sharing platforms can increase housing prices in cities like Barcelona, particularly in the most touristy neighborhoods. This points towards the potential effects that regulating these platforms' activities can have on housing affordability. Second, the success of policies directed to improving housing affordability and accessibility for young people can depend heavily on the rental market conditions. In particular, even when policies are targeted towards the young and least well-off population, benefits can still be captured by wealthier and older landlords, leaving the targeted population worse off. Third, signaling certain areas as potentially dangerous is not enough to deter development from taking place near such areas. In particular, if restrictions are not enforced after signaling areas as high-risk, it can lead to overdeveloping close to these zones, exposing more construction to potential flood risks.

Thesis (MPhil)--University of Stellenbosch, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis sets out to explore housing co-operatives as an alternative housing delivery mechanism in South Africa. This is done by critically examining the housing policy post 1994, as well as the various mechanisms government implemented in an attempt to manage the service delivery within the housing sector. The thesis also explores the role that co-operatives played in South Africa’s history and draws some historical comparisons in relation to the establishment of housing co-operatives internationally and locally. In exploring the various types of housing co-operatives, insights emerge about their structure, potential and limitations. The thesis examines the themes of public service delivery and explores possible alternatives to the failing traditional model of public service delivery. The thesis focuses on the experiences and perceptions that South Africans have with regards to local government process in housing service delivery. The thesis concludes that local government should play an active role in creating more collaborative partnerships; one that focuses on training and facilitating the efforts of civil society to establish entities such as housing cooperatives. This requires a fundamental shift in the manner in which local government approaches service delivery in the housing sector.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis het ten doel behuisings kooperatiewe te verken as ’n alternatiewe behuisingsmeganisme in Suid-Afrika. Dit is gedoen deur n kritiese ondersoek van die behuisingsbeleid na 1994, sowel as die verskeie meganismes wat die regering probeer implementeer het in ’n poging om die dienslewering binne die behuisingsektor te beheer. Die tesis ondersoek die rol wat koöperatiewe gespeel het in Suid-Afrika se geskiedenis en het ’n historiese vergelyking gemaak met betrekking tot die stigting van behuisingskoöperatiewe op internasionale sowel as op plaaslike vlak. In die tesis van die verskillende tiepe behuising koöperasies het sekere ideas na vore gekom ten opsigte van hul struktuur, potensiaal en beperkinge. Die tesis ondersoek die temas van publieke dienslewering en het ook na die alternatiewe gekyk ten opsigte van publieke dienslewering. Die tesis fokus op die ervarings en persepsies van Suid- Afrikaners met betrekking tot die plaaslike regering se proses van behuisings dienslewering. Die tesis word afgesluit met voorstelle waarin plaaslike regering 'n aktiewe rol speel in die skepping van meer samewerkende vennootskappe, een wat fokus op die opleiding en die fasilitering waarin pogings van die burgerlike samelewing entiteite tot stand bring soos byvoorbeeld behuising koöperasies. Dit vereis ’n fundamentele verandering in die wyse waarop plaaslike regering dienslewering benader in die behuisingsektor.

The lack of affordable housing has been a long-standing problem for many cities in Sweden, and the recent refugee crisis has only highlighted the difficulties for economically weaker constituencies to enter and sustain in the existing housing market. The pressing situation and a new law, obligating the municipalities to supply housing, forced the authorities to look for solutions. The thesis investigates the recent changes and use of one of these offered solutions – temporary housing permits. Using a qualitative approach, it tries to capture both the formative-discursive processes and the material outcomes of this measure, in order to understand what informs the decision and its possible implications. The study employs theoretical concepts from Giorgio Agamben’s theory on the ‘state of exception’, as I consider them important for the understanding of the processes. The interventions in the housing system are made possible only by declaring that the shortage of housing is in an ‘exceptional situation’, one that can only be resolved with irregular practices, exceptions from standard norm and regular procedures. A look into the legal-formative mechanisms and the materialization of the temporary housing permits is given. The thesis argues that a wider perspective is needed and tries to bring into the discussion the political and social aspects of using a measure like this one. Although conceptualized as a quick and temporary remedy, it is maintained that the utilization of temporary housing permits can potentially have harmful long-lasting effects on the understanding of housing provision, living standards, and planning processes. This suggests that authorities have to be careful when using exceptional measures and calls for a fundamental and systemic re-thinking of housing in general.

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2015.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 145-150).
The San Francisco Bay Area is in the midst of a housing crisis as population and economic growth outstrip the ability of developers to build enough housing, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance that is expected to last well into the foreseeable future. San Francisco, in particular, faces the most severe housing crunch as demographic trends favor increasing demand in already dense, transit-rich cities. Developers are unable to supply the necessary housing due to significant barriers to development including a lengthy and convoluted planning and entitlement process, zoning restrictions on density and height, neighborhood opposition, and a high cost of land. Supply needs to outpace demand if housing is to become affordable, and this requires regulatory reform and cost reduction. Based on case studies, interviews and development analysis, this thesis will demonstrate how developers and municipal leaders can address the crisis by embracing factory-built housing while reforming regulations.
by Luis Mejias.
S.M. in Real Estate Development

The world has changed rapidly in recent months as a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all areas of socio-economic life. The crisis directed, in a first phase, the efforts of the whole society in the direction of ensuring the public health, and later also towards the economic recovery by resuming the human activities. In this context, housing has been a point of stability and a starting point for all efforts, and access to adequate housing has proven its importance for ensuring the health and well-being of the population. The purpose of the research is to highlight a series of housing affordability problems pre-existent and new problems arising from the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing sector in Romania. The present research highlights pre-existing problems in the general picture of housing at the national level, how these issues condition access to adequate and affordable housing, the emergence of new risk groups in the population in terms of access to housing, highlights the impact of the pandemic on the ability of households to bear housing costs and proves that housing insecurity is exacerbated by the effects of the crisis. The analyzes used data provided by the National Institute of Statistics, Eurostat, the Quality of Life Research Institute as well as reports prepared by specialized European organizations.

Obtaining a home in Syria has been an equivalent to a strategic goal around which the life of the Syrian citizen revolves. Housing was one of the problematic crises before the war, which accelerated due to the war. Moreover, this turned into a humanitarian disaster, and the situation has become more urgent and requires immediate treatment. The solution of this demolition is not limited to an easy rebuilding and needs a more sustainable and qualified policy in order to prevent to turn back to the existing crisis before the war. This paper focuses on finding an appropriate strategy to respond to the housing crisis in Syria in the light of successful implementations of social housing. In order to achieve that, after a literature review of the general context of social housing, the Singapore social housing experience has been analyzed. Considering the housing problems and implementations in Syria (before and after the war) in a comparative evaluation with the Singapore experience, some strategies have been suggested, along with discussing the transfer of this experience to the Syrian context. Although applying a social housing system in a country that has had a failed experiment is not an easy task, the study proposes a list of recommendations for developing a social housing strategy based on a clear legal framework which also provides a base for social housing. In addition to defining all the criteria related to social housing, such as the target groups, the type of housing, the available financing methods, and focusing on urban planning and architecture for the importance of their role in creating a peaceful coexistence in the conflicting societies.

The global crisis in United States began as the form of the mortgage crisis in the housing market. Profound effects the financial crisis emerged in 2008 spread rapidly throughout the world as a result of globalization and also its effects were felt in our country. Both in earlier crises and the emergence and spread of the global economic crisis in the cyclical indicators are known to play an important role. There are different opinions on this subject in the literature. It is seen that there is a relation between the global crisis in the financial sectors and the construction sector based on mostly housing industry. Especially in the developing countries like Turkey, the construction sector, which is an important contribution to the economic growth, is seen negatively affected by the global crisis. The aim of this study is to analyze the variations occurred in the construction industry during the 2008 global economic crisis and is to introduce how the construction sector is affected by the crisis. Here, Turkey's main economic indicators during the crisis are examined considering the construction sector and GDP growth rates. As a result of this study, it is put forward that the construction sector in Turkey is one of the sectors most affected by the global crisis.

Turkish mortgage system was established by the law number 5582 and the title of "The Law Amending the Laws Related to Housing Finance System" in 2007. Even though the entry into force of this act expressed as "Pay the rent as the landlord-performing”, no bring up short of the interest rates of a housing loan were observed. In fact, Mortgage application could not be branch out yet. The distinguishing feature of the mortgage system, mortgage collateral pools of consumer loans with guaranteed by mortgage backed securities to be issued, sold in the capital market, also called the mortgage money is the safeguard of cheap funds. Using this fund for financing provided by banks as a result of re-housing resource for the consumer to pay the cost of housing loan interest rate is relatively go into a decline. Meanwhile, after the abundance of finance in the world, the so-called subprime mortgage, loans to non-qualified borrower, triggered the world economic crisis occurred. May well be, Turkey was unimpressed the crisis because of the not being set secondary mortgage market. All the public in charge of economy has introduced prevention of packages of measures.

Large-panel housing estates have become a permanent element in the landscape of numerous European towns and cities, especially in the eastern part of the continent. Initially, they evoked delight and gave hope for a better housing environment. Then their picture changed radically, when it turned out that in numerous cases they were becoming a place of spatial and social pathology. The search of solutions to the problem, and – depending on capacities – undertaking remedial measures – this is the next stage in their existence. Nevertheless, it pertains most of all to wealthier European states, with Germany being in the lead in this respect. In Poland, such housing estates are still referred to as crisis areas, but so far no systematic approach to the improvement of their situation has been adopted. This could be changed by works undertaken predominanly in the second decade of the 21st century at the governmental level, devoted to an efficiently functioning system allowing for systematic revitalisation activities. In the context of housing estates, they can constitute a chance not only for the crisis elimination, but also for the creation of a high-quality housing environment, corresponding to new and constantly changing needs of the 21st-century society and complementary towards other housing structures of the city. The goal of this paper is to present a synthesis of issues connected with the revitalisation of large-panel housing estates depending on their characteristics and conditions, which constitutes a case study upon the example of two housing estates located in Cracow. These problems are also demonstrated in the context of methods of improving of the quality and building of the continuity of urban public spaces using the potential offered by the space of open housing estates.

Housing is one of the important necessities for people. It comes after food and drink according to Maslow’s pyramid of human needs. It also influences countries’ social cohesion, stability and development and at the same time is affected by their general conditions. Iraq has a housing sector crisis. The county experiences a large housing shortage. The Iraqi National Housing Policy identifies critical challenges in seven housing-related fields: housing production, land management, housing finance, infrastructure, construction materials, housing stock status and slums. This paper aims to present a better understanding of these housing challenges as a first step to the development of appropriate solutions. It presents a critical investigation of the housing sector’s issues through exploring a wide range of literature to build a framework that critically evaluates and identifies the problems. The paper also quantifies the current housing shortage at around 1 million dwellings. Based on the extrapolation of trends towards 2030, it is estimated that Iraq has to build around 230000 dwellings annually to satisfy future demand. Results confirm the importance of the issues identified in the National Housing Policy, which gives it more validity. The paper concludes by proposing a series of measures to address Iraq’s housing challenges.

According to future projections based on current demographic growth trends, Auckland’s population will reach two million in 2033. Since the city is already afflicted by a serious housing crisis, at the beginning of 2017 the newly elected Mayor Phil Goff set up a task force. Formed by representatives of various stakeholders, it was given the task of producing a report with strategic and tactical guidelines to mitigate the situation. Unitec researchers were invited to respond to the report, which came out at the end of 2017, in the form of three think pieces towards the Building Better Homes, Towns and Cities National Science Challenge. This paper is a new iteration of one of these think pieces, focused on collaborative living, and expands on the new role that designers should play in this field. Its ideological position is that the house cannot and should not be considered as a commodity on the free market; nor should focus solely be on bringing down prices by increasing the number of houses on offer. Over time, housing might evolve to being more about social (use) value than exchange value. Other models of the production and consumption of household goods are documented throughout the world as alternatives to mainstream market logic, using collective procurement mechanisms to cut construction and marketing costs with savings of up to 30%. These experiments, not limited to achieving financially sustainable outcomes, are linked to new social practices of collaboration between neighbours. The sharing of spaces and equipment to complement private housing units also leads to social and environmental sustainability.

This paper present the findings of an extensive literature review on the housing systems in Germany and Sweden. The literature review majorly focuses on the rental housing sector but also touches upon other segments of the housing market, especially the cooperative housing sector. The report thus provides a general overview and situates the rental sector in the wider context of the overall housing market in the two countries. The paper adds valuable knowledge about the large differences in the post-war responses to the housing shortage in Germany and Sweden. While Sweden responded with a universal off-market approach to housing, (West) Germany implemented a dualist housing system within a social market economy. Despite differences in past solutions, the contemporary problems seem to be similar. The report concludes that, in the search of a response to the current housing crisis, Germany sees a re-emergence of the state, while Sweden’s next moves are uncertain.

Recent books and articles have analyzed the causes of the global financial and economic crisis of 2007-09. Yet little attention has been paid to the quality of leadership in organizations that were at the epicentre of the storm, were victims of it, avoided it or even prospered from it. In the summer of 2009 a multi-disciplinary group of Ivey faculty decided to look at the leadership dimensions of the recent financial and economic crisis. We started by writing a working paper that laid out our preliminary views. We then engaged more than 300 business, public sector and not-for-profit leaders in small and large groups, as individuals and collectives, to get their reaction to this paper and, more generally, to discuss te role that organizational leadership played before, during and after the crisis. We examined leadership not just in the financial sector but also in many other public and private sector organizations that were affected by the crisis. In a sense, we were putting leadership on trial. Our aim in doing this was not to identify and assign blame. Rather, we examined leadership during this critical period in recent history to learn what we could, and use the learning to improve practice in leadership today and the development of next generation leaders. As we analyzed the role of leadership in this crisis we were faced with one major question: "Would better leadership have made a difference?" Our answer is unequivocal: "Yes!" We recognize that many people could argue it is unfair to criticize leaders whose decisions were based on their knowledge of the situation at the time and which only eventually, with the aid of 20/20 hindsight proved bad. We respect this view but we disagree with it. Some business and public sector leaders predicted better than others the bursting of the housing bubble and financial markets turmoil, positioned their organizations to avoid problems, and coped with them skillfully. Their organizations were not badly damaged by the crisis and some even prospered. Some governments and regulatory agencies' control and monitoring systems were superior to those in the U.S., the U.K., Ireland, Spain, Iceland and other countries that had to bail out their banks and other industries. Our evidence supports the conclusion that these companies, these agencies, these governments and these countries had better leadership. Good leadership mattered then and good leadership will matter in the future. We are presenting our conclusions about what good leadership involves in the form of a public statement of principles - a manifesto that addresses what good leaders do, who they are, and how they can be developed in organizations.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.