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1
Vasic, Petar. "Household projections by the headship rates method: The case of Serbia." Stanovnistvo 55, no. 2 (2017): 69–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/stnv1702069v.
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The headship rates method (HRM) of household projections based on the share of household heads in the total population of the same demographic characteristics (age, sex, nationality, marital status, etc.) is the most commonly used method, especially by statistical institutes and planning institutions. The specific rates of household heads by age are calculated by dividing the number of household holders of a certain age with the total number of residents of the appropriate age. The future number of households is then simply projected on the basis of population projections by age and assumptions about the future changes of HR. The HRM is based on the projection of the future age structure of the population. In that sense, the choice of methods of population projection, as well as the method of projecting HR-s have determining impact on the outcome of household projections. Given the methodological inconsistency typical for official population projections in Serbia and significant differences in addressing uncertainty of the future population change between deterministic and probabilistic approach in making population projections, the decision to use a probabilistic projection of the population of Serbia as the basis for calculating the future number of house-holds and their structure according to the age of the household head proved to be a logical choice. However, as the basic aim of this article is to show the simple method of household projections, the above-mentioned stochastic projection is used in utterly deterministic manner. The median of the prediction interval of the population distributed across age is interpreted as the most probable future, or as a prognosis. The HR-s based on the age structure estimates and estimated number of households by age of the household head from Household budget survey (HBS) are used for the purpose of HR projecting so that the number of observations would be large enough for calculating inclination parameters. The obtained rates show a tendency to decline during the observed period, however, in certain age categories, the rates are expressed by extreme values that are certainly the result of random sampling in the HBS for the purpose of analyzing consumption rather than analyzing the demographic characteristics of households, and must be taken with a certain reserve. Although the tendency of declining rates in most age categories is not unexpected, surely the intensity of decline is unexpected. For this reason, in the formation of the regression function, the extreme values of the rates are intentionally excluded in the following way: after calculating the regression line parameters, all the values of the rates that deviate from the regression values by more than 20 per cent are rejected, after which the regression parameters are recalculated. On the basis of the second calculation of the regression line, parameters are obtained. However, as the obtained parameters led to unexpectedly large HR changes according to the age of the household head until the end of the projection period (2040), it was assumed that the inclination parameter (b) would be reduced by 10 per cent annually compared to the start year of the regression line. On the basis of the rates according to the 2011 census data and the hypothesis on the slowdown of the observed trends in the future, future HR-s are calculated. Furthermore, based on the projected HR-s by age and future age structure of the population, the number of households by the age of the household head for the projection years is calculated. Based on the results of the projection, the total number of households will be reduced on average by over 11 thousand households per year. Also, compared to the 2011 census, it can be expected that the number of households in all age groups will be reduced by the end of the projection period, except in the category of household heads aged 65 and over that stabilizes to around 900 thousand households by the end of the projection period. Due to the decline in the number of households, the average household size will be reduced by 0.18 members in 2040 compared to 2011, from 2.89 to 2.71. The largest number of households in Serbia are family households, the share of single person households in the population under the age of 50 is small, and the structural barriers to the establishment of an indigenous household in persons under the age of 30 are significant. All of this makes it difficult to withdraw parallels with other European populations in terms of a possible path that the population and households in Serbia should follow in the projection period. Some of the projections of households produced by the HRM of a newer date for populations also found in the post-transition demographic stage show that the age at which the household is based, the mechanisms that affect the generation, change, and extinguishing of the household, which are characteristic for each society, result in significantly different values of age-specific HR-s. Of course, HR-s by age vary considerably among different populations. It is obvious that the key differences in Serbia in relation to other countries occur precisely at the age when individuals base their own household. The existence of postponing marriages and parenting that is recognized as key life-changing milestones in the transition to adulthood and the founding of one?s own household, the chronic lack of systematic housing policy towards young people and high youth unemployment are the main causes of the late establishment of their own household and the maintenance of low HR-s for persons under 30 years of age in Serbia. Nevertheless, during the first decade of the 21st century, there is a certain shift in the financial independence of young people, which gives some hope that in the future HR-s in the category between the ages of 30 and 39 can be slightly increased, which is confirmed on the basis of the sample of households from the HBS for the period 2006-2013. Namely, the tendency of a slight increase in the value of the rate for persons aged between 30 and 39 years is certainly the result of an increase in the age at which the household is based, which can be noticed on the basis of the reduction in rates for persons under the age of 30. On the other hand, a certain decline in the value of the rate characteristic for the households of the holders in their middle age (between 40 and 64 years of age) has an explanation in the increase in number and share of multi-family households in the period 1991-2011, especially in urban areas. During the 1990s, in the conditions of a deep socio-economic crisis, with the continuation in the next decade during the transition of the economic system, in conditions of significant poverty and the phenomenon of the retraditionalization of partnership arrangements within multi-family households, it is obvious that a significant number of families in the middle of their life cycle lived in within parental households whose carriers are aged 65 and over. In fact, as the increase in the HR-s during the thirtieth year of age is the result of deprivation of rates in younger persons, this is, by and large, a rise in rates for persons aged 65 and over due to a reduction in rates among carriers aged between 40 and 64 years. The presented method of household projections is not characterized by methodological sophistication, elegance and precision in reflecting changes in the structure of households according to the family composition and a detailed presentation of changes in the family status of individuals, but it certainly represents an simple way of household projecting according to the age distribution of carriers, the average size and the number of households. It seems that this approach, based on the stability of age-specific rates of household heads, without getting involved in the field of sociology, is quite precise in the medium term, especially given the simplicity in household projecting based on HRM.
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Akkerman, Abraham. "Housing as a Heuristic Condition in the Simultaneous Projection of Population and Households." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 38, no. 4 (April 2006): 765–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a37125.
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Conventional population projections regard individuals, rather than households, as population units of reference. Such an approach has been questioned on both methodological and empirical grounds. Furthermore, in applications to smaller populations, conventional population projections have repeatedly yielded poor results. The simultaneous projection of population and households, on the other hand, regards households as population units of reference, but, in applications based on the notion of the household composition matrix, it has occasionally yielded analytically infeasible results. In the present study I examine the simultaneous projection of population and households in a etropolitan area, under feasibility constraints. A housing-market specification is expressed as a feasibility condition against multipliers of the household composition matrix, extracted here for the Cleveland Consolidated Metropolitan Statistical Area (CMSA), 1990. The feasibility condition is shown to function as a gateway to exogenous considerations regarding the transfer of headship in households, and is exemplified in a forecast of population and households for the Cleveland CMSA.
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Corner, Ian E. "Household projection methods." Journal of Forecasting 6, no. 4 (1987): 271–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/for.3980060405.
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King, D., and D. Bolsdon. "Using the SARs to Add Policy Value to Household Projections." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 30, no. 5 (May 1998): 867–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a300867.
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Household projections are at the centre of the debate about future housing requirements in England. The Census of Population Sample of Anonymised Records offers actual and potential opportunities to ‘add value’ to traditional projections. This article gives examples of such added value, including testing definitional sensitivity of projection outcomes, assisting further detailed disaggregation of projected components, assisting the matching of household projections to dwelling supply, and offering scope to explore via data linkage the relationships between household projections and ‘backlog’ housing needs, affordability, dwelling size, and tenure. The last of these methodologies is examined more closely by using findings from a research project which explored the tenure implications of government household projections on rural areas.
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Wilson, Tom. "The sequential propensity household projection model." Demographic Research 28 (April 3, 2013): 681–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/demres.2013.28.24.
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Yi, Zeng, James W. Vaupel, and Wang Zhenglian. "Household Projection Using Conventional Demographic Data." Population and Development Review 24 (1998): 59. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2808051.
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Nandram, Balgobin. "A Bayesian Approach to Linking a Survey and a Census via Small Areas." Stats 4, no. 2 (June 9, 2021): 509–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/stats4020031.
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We predict the finite population proportion of a small area when individual-level data are available from a survey and more extensive household-level (not individual-level) data (covariates but not responses) are available from a census. The census and the survey consist of the same strata and primary sampling units (PSU, or wards) that are matched, but the households are not matched. There are some common covariates at the household level in the survey and the census and these covariates are used to link the households within wards. There are also covariates at the ward level, and the wards are the same in the survey and the census. Using a two-stage procedure, we study the multinomial counts in the sampled households within the wards and a projection method to infer about the non-sampled wards. This is accommodated by a multinomial-Dirichlet–Dirichlet model, a three-stage hierarchical Bayesian model for multinomial counts, as it is necessary to account for heterogeneity among the households. The key theoretical contribution of this paper is to develop a computational algorithm to sample the joint posterior density of the multinomial-Dirichlet–Dirichlet model. Specifically, we obtain samples from the distributions of the proportions for each multinomial cell. The second key contribution is to use two projection procedures (parametric based on the nested error regression model and non-parametric based on iterative re-weighted least squares), on these proportions to link the survey to the census, thereby providing a copy of the census counts. We compare the multinomial-Dirichlet–Dirichlet (heterogeneous) model and the multinomial-Dirichlet (homogeneous) model without household effects via these two projection methods. An example of the second Nepal Living Standards Survey is presented.
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Fukawa, Tetsuo. "Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II." Epidemiology Research International 2012 (August 23, 2012): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/832325.
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By using a microsimulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 2011–2060. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by living arrangement and dependency level has a profound impact on the future social burden. In this paper, we measured the social burden of the elderly by three variables: (1) institutionalization rate (percentage of the elderly living in institutions), (2) parent-child ratio (relative number of old parents taking into account the number of brothers and sisters), and (3) one-year transition matrix of the elderly by household type. Especially, the choice of the elderly among (a) living independently, (b) coresident with child households, and (c) moving to institutions are crucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan.
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Dodd, P. J., and N. M. Ferguson. "Approximate disease dynamics in household-structured populations." Journal of The Royal Society Interface 4, no. 17 (March 28, 2007): 1103–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.0231.
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We argue that the large-dimensional dynamical systems which frequently occur in biological models can sometimes be effectively reduced to much smaller ones. We illustrate this by applying projection operator techniques to a mean-field model of an infectious disease spreading through a population of households. In this way, we are able to accurately approximate the dynamics of the system in terms of a few key quantities greatly reducing the number of equations required. We investigate linear stability in this framework and find a new way of calculating the familiar threshold criterion for household systems.
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Fukawa, Tetsuo. "Projection of Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM." Studies in Asian Social Science 5, no. 2 (July 20, 2018): 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/sass.v5n2p34.
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By using a dynamic micro-simulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a population-household projection inJapan for the period of 2015 to 2070. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 yearsold or older) by living arrangements has a profound impact on the social system. Especially, the choice of the elderlyamong a) living in one-person households, b) co-residing with child households, and c) living in institutions, arecrucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan. In this paper, we projected the number andproportion of the elderly by living arrangement in future years. Trends of those elderly who have little relatives,therefore having high risk of dying in solitude, were also featured.
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West, Guy R. "Queensland State Impact and Projection Model: The Household Sector." Economic Systems Research 6, no. 4 (January 1994): 363–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09535319400000030.
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Ahmad, Shakoor, Shumaila Javeed, Saqlain Raza, and Dumitru Baleanu. "A novel fractional model for the projection of households using wealth index quintiles." PLOS ONE 17, no. 11 (November 17, 2022): e0277472. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277472.
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Forecasting household assets provides a better opportunity to plan their socioeconomic activities for the future. Fractional mathematical models offer to model the asset-holding data into a piece of scientific evidence in addition to forecasting their future value. This research focuses on the development of a new fractional mathematical model based on the wealth index quintile (WIQ) data. To accomplish the objective, we used the system of coupled fractional differential equations by defining the fractional term with the Caputo derivative and verified it with the stability tests considering the steady-state solution. A numerical solution of the model was obtained using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. To validate the model, we used real-time data obtained from the household series of surveys in Punjab, Pakistan. Different case studies that elucidate the effect of quintiles on the population are also presented. The accuracy of results between real-world and simulated data was compared using absolute and relative errors. The synchronization between the simulated results and real-time data verifies the formulation of the fractional WIQ model. This fractional model can be utilized to predict the approximation of the asset-holding of the households. Due to its relative nature, the model also provides the opportunity for the researchers to use the WIQs of their respective regions to forecast the households’ socioeconomic conditions.
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Rho, Sang-Youn. "Technical Improvements of the Projection of Household Health Care Expenditure." Korean Journal of Applied Statistics 23, no. 1 (February 28, 2010): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/kjas.2010.23.1.001.
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Kaswa, M., G. Minga, N. Nkiere, B. Mingiedi, G. Eloko, P. Nguhiu, and I. Garcia Baena. "The economic burden of TB-affected households in DR Congo." International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease 25, no. 11 (November 1, 2021): 923–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5588/ijtld.21.0182.
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BACKGROUND: The Democratic Republic of Congo´s free TB care policy and recent progress with universal health coverage are insufficient to remove barriers to TB care access and adherence. As there were no nationally representative data on the economic burden borne by TB patients, the TB programme conducted a national survey to assess the proportion of TB patients facing catastrophic costs, which could also serve as a baseline for monitoring progress.METHODS: A national survey with retrospective data collection and projection, following WHO methods, was administered to 1,118 patients in 43 treatment zones. Each patient was interviewed once on costs, time loss, coping measures, income, household expenditure and asset ownership. Total costs were expressed as a percentage of annual household expenditure.RESULTS: In 2019, 56.5% of households affected by TB experienced costs above 20% of their annual household expenditure. Mean costs amounted to respectively US$400 (range: 328–471) and US$1,224 (range: 762–1,686) per episode of first-line and drug-resistant TB. The risk of catastrophic costs increased with hospitalisation, drug resistance status and lower economic status. Half of households resorted to coping strategies and experienced food insecurity. Only 7.5% received social support.CONCLUSION: TB-affected households incur on average a cost of US$549, despite free TB care policy. Mitigating this burden with medical cost reductions, social and labour market measures will be key.
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Nugraha Sadeli Utama. "PROYEKSI KEBUTUHAN AIR BAKU KOTA TASIKMALAYA PADA TAHUN 2025." Jurnal Infrastruktur 3, no. 2 (July 29, 2019): 137–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.35814/infrastruktur.v3i2.717.
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Water is a basic requirement that is needed by living things. Water is also need in every household, agricultural, economic, and industrial. A common problem that we faced today is the consumption of water continues to increase in line with population growth, while diminishing water resources in terms of quality and quantity. To calculate the water needs, a study be required on population projections and projected water requirements in the future. In this study, the calculation of the water demand consist of calculation of domestic water needs (household), calculation of non-domestic water needs (municipal), and calculation of industrial water needs. The projection method used in this study is Mathematical Logistic Curve Method. Based on calculations that have been done, population of Tasikmalaya in 2025 are 668,281 peoples, water demand of Tasikmalaya in 2025 is 2,100 liters/sec, and the water avaibility of Tasikmalaya in 2025 is 944.18 liters/sec. Avaibility less than requirement, so there is a water deficit 1,155.82 liters/sec.
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Devkota, Bijaya Mani. "Estimation and Projection of Fertility, 2001-2031: Province 2, Nepal." Curriculum Development Journal 29, no. 43 (December 1, 2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/cdj.v29i43.41043.
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Fertility is an essential tool of population growth which levels and patterns can assist to formulate and evaluate policies related to population change. Fertility decline in Nepal has been tested and tried with different studies gives different figures like demographic health survey and national census data but varies data in provincial level. This study describes number of children ever born and number of birth before 12 months who were given birth by reproductive (15-49) age group of women. The study has utilized census data from CBS that were conducted in 2001 and 2011. These national household censuses were carried out in 12.5 percent of total household. From census data files 1,063,903 and 1,304,079 number of reproductive age group of women were identified through analysis. The study was carried out adhering to the Arriaga method and changing P/F ratio method. Age sex pyramids and frequency table represent demographic scenario of provincial 2. The TFR values of province 2 exact years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 were obtained by linear interpolation and extrapolation by 2031, it will to reach TFR replacement level.
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Dukert, Joseph M. "Chapter 12: Household Energy Use in the Year 2000: Interpreting a Projection." Marriage & Family Review 9, no. 1-2 (November 7, 1985): 269–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1300/j002v09n01_13.
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Govindaraj, Gurrappanaidu, Satrasala Suryaprakash, and Nilakantan Sivaramane. "Present status of edible oil consumption and household demand projection for Tamil Nadu (India)." Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Belgrade 57, no. 1 (2012): 41–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/jas1201041g.
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Until the 1990s the major edible oil consumed in Tamil Nadu state was peanut and sesame oil. The technological, economic and policy changes thereafter induced dynamism in consumer demand for food, including edible oils. In this study, the household demand for individual edible oils based on present consumption was assessed and forecasted for 2015 and 2020 for Tamil Nadu. Due to constraints in the secondary data published by National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO), the primary data was used. The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model was employed to estimate the income (expenditure) elasticities and in turn used to project the demand for edible oils and associated products like ghee and butter. The overall edible oil demand is expected to grow at 7.0% per annum in Tamil Nadu, with the highest growth of sunflower oil (8.7%) followed by other oils (7.8%), sesame oil (6.6%), peanut oil (6.6%) and palm oil (3.1%). The demand for total edible oil in rural Tamil Nadu increases from 3.14 lakh tonnes (2009-10) to 5.3 lakh tonnes (2020), whereas, in urban areas, it increases from 3.24 lakh tonnes to 5.45 lakh tonnes. The non-traditional oil like sunflower oil and other oils (soybean, corn, rice bran, palm oil) has made inroads in the consumption basket and will continue to dominate in the future. Hence, concerted efforts like increasing seed replacement rate, increasing the intensity of adoption of improved technology and appropriate price policy are required to increase productivity of non-traditional crops besides promoting traditional crops (peanut and sesame) to meet the growing edible oil demand in the state.
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Zubarevich, N. "Regional Dimension of the New Russian Crisis." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 4 (April 20, 2015): 37–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2015-4-37-52.
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The article is focused on the new crisis in Russia and its projection on the regions including the impact on regional economic development, labor markets and household money incomes in 2014. Factors and spatial features of the new crisis are compared with the previous crises of 1990-2000. Different territories prospects are analized as well as the state anti-crisis policy to support the regions
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Harmayani, Kadek Diana, Mawiti Infantri Yekti, I. Ketut Suputra, and I. Ketut Anzas Dwi Anggara Putra. "Water supply system in Titab village and Telaga village, Busungbiu district, Buleleng regency." MATEC Web of Conferences 276 (2019): 06029. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201927606029.
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The rate of population growth in Titab and Telaga Village, Busungbiu District, Buleleng Regency in 2007-2010 reaches 0.75%, which affects the level of water demand needed for daily needs. One of the efforts to meet the needs of raw water for drinking water, among others, by the development of a potable water supply system infrastructure. Based on the facts, it is necessary to design Water Supply System (SPAM) in Titab and Telaga Village with Titab Reservoir spring with 350 l/dt of debit which is expected to give standard of quantity, quality, continuity of service for Titab and Telaga Village which is 5 km from the dam. In order to maximize the service to the community in Titab and Telaga Village, it is necessary to know the use of drinking water for each household. The next analysis is the calculation of projected drinking water needs over the next 20 years. Planning and calculation of water distribution using WaterCad i8 Software. From the result of projection analysis, the drinking water requirement in Titab and Telaga Village based on the fact of household drinking water usage in 2037 is 5,568 lt/sec. While the effort to maximize water supply network services is by projecting drinking water needs in Titab and Telaga Village based on the fact of household drinking water usage. With the help of WaterNet Software, it will simplify the distribution network planning of drinking water in order to produce integrated drinking water network system to meet the needs of clean water in Titab and Telaga Village.
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Imani, Lazuwardi, Ahmad Agus Setiawan, and Mohammad Kholid Ridwan. "Demand and Electricity Energy Mix in Indonesia 2030 with Small Modular Reactor Nuclear Power Plant and Renewable Energy Scenario." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 927, no. 1 (December 1, 2021): 012025. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/927/1/012025.
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Abstract The interest in small modular reactors worldwide has been increasing due to flexibility in the power generation for more comprehensive users and applications. Small Modular Reactors or SMRs can be the primary choice for Indonesia provided with the geographical condition, which consists of many islands and is more flexible in construction compared to the conventional nuclear power plant. The main objective of this paper is to provide an overview projection of demand and energy mix of electrical in Indonesia 2030 with SMRs NPP in the energy mix referring to RUPTL or General Plan of Electricity Supply Indonesia. Using the end-use model, which is total electricity consumption for each electricity sector, it can be calculated how much electricity demand is from these sectors. The scenario uses RUPTL, roadmap from Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry references, and policy of no coal power plant added from 2020 onwards. The results show in 2030, Indonesia needs 577,016.2 GWh of electricity, where the household and industry sectors have the highest electricity needs, which is 44% for the household sector and 31% for the industry. The transformation projection in PLTGU or Combined Cycle Power Plants scenario also shows that without replacing the power plant, renewable along without SMRs only had ±7.49% of the total capacity mix, and the second scenario with SMRs shows that renewable energy share had 16.07%.
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P., S., W. Van Imhoff, and N. W. Keilman. "LIPRO 2.0: An Application of a Dynamic Demographic Projection Model to Household Structure in the Netherlands." Population (French Edition) 47, no. 5 (September 1992): 1321. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1533950.
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Zhu, Wenle, Ran Gao, Lei Zhou, Yifan Liu, Ruoyin Jing, Zhiheng Zhang, and Angui Li. "Multi-objective air terminal of a household air conditioner based on the principle of central projection." Energy and Buildings 249 (October 2021): 111212. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2021.111212.
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Hasan, Md Zabir, William T. Story, David M. Bishai, Akshay Ahuja, Krishna D. Rao, and Shivam Gupta. "Does social capital increase healthcare financing's projection? Results from the rural household of Uttar Pradesh, India." SSM - Population Health 15 (September 2021): 100901. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2021.100901.
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Fukawa, Tetsuo. "Household Projection and Its Application to Health/Long-Term Care Expenditures in Japan Using INAHSIM-II." Social Science Computer Review 29, no. 1 (June 30, 2010): 52–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0894439310370097.
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Lankin, Anton M., Mariya Y. Lankina, and Mikhail V. Lankin. "Identification and diagnosis of high-precision positioning systems using the principal components method." MATEC Web of Conferences 226 (2018): 02026. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201822602026.
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The aim of this paper is to develop the theoretical basis of highprecision systems construction using principal components projection method for conducting natural model measurements of high-precision systems parameters. It is difficult to name a technical sphere, where highprecision systems systems aren’t applied. They can be found in many household appliances, communication devices, they are an integral part of electrical machinery, many devices of industrial automation, control equipment and protection of various electrical installations. To conduct natural model measurements we need models connecting various parameters of high-precision systems systems between each other.
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., Arbain, Mohammad Zainuddin, Emmilya Umma Aziza Gaffar, and Ansar Rizal. "Neural network based projection of electricity demand in Indonesia using repetitive training method." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 2.2 (March 5, 2018): 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i2.2.12733.
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Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 published by BPPT projected the electricity demand in 2025 significantly will increase more than twice to 513 TWh from 203 TWh in 2015. This projection is based on the target of 100% electrification ratio in 2025. Assuming an average population growth of 1.2% in 2025 and a nominal GDP growth of 5.02% in 2014 which are expected to increase to 8% in 2025.This study projected the total electricity demand for the period 2016-2025 based on GDP, population, and electricity sales per sector (household, commercial, and industry) from the period of 2000-2015. Time series data modeling using Auto Regressive (AR) model and Autoregressive model with exogenous input (ARX) implemented using Artificial Neural Network Back-Propagation (ANN-BP). The repetitive training method is used to achieve the specified target error.
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Ninsalam, Y., R. Qin, and J. Rekittke. "APPLICATION FOR 3D SCENE UNDERSTANDING IN DETECTING DISCHARGE OF DOMESTICWASTE ALONG COMPLEX URBAN RIVERS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B3 (June 10, 2016): 663–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xli-b3-663-2016.
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In our study we use 3D scene understanding to detect the discharge of domestic solid waste along an urban river. Solid waste found along the Ciliwung River in the neighbourhoods of Bukit Duri and Kampung Melayu may be attributed to households. This is in part due to inadequate municipal waste infrastructure and services which has caused those living along the river to rely upon it for waste disposal. However, there has been little research to understand the prevalence of household waste along the river. Our aim is to develop a methodology that deploys a low cost sensor to identify point source discharge of solid waste using image classification methods. To demonstrate this we describe the following five-step method: 1) a strip of GoPro images are captured photogrammetrically and processed for dense point cloud generation; 2) depth for each image is generated through a backward projection of the point clouds; 3) a supervised image classification method based on Random Forest classifier is applied on the view dependent red, green, blue and depth (RGB-D) data; 4) point discharge locations of solid waste can then be mapped by projecting the classified images to the 3D point clouds; 5) then the landscape elements are classified into five types, such as vegetation, human settlement, soil, water and solid waste. While this work is still ongoing, the initial results have demonstrated that it is possible to perform quantitative studies that may help reveal and estimate the amount of waste present along the river bank.
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Ninsalam, Y., R. Qin, and J. Rekittke. "APPLICATION FOR 3D SCENE UNDERSTANDING IN DETECTING DISCHARGE OF DOMESTICWASTE ALONG COMPLEX URBAN RIVERS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLI-B3 (June 10, 2016): 663–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprsarchives-xli-b3-663-2016.
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In our study we use 3D scene understanding to detect the discharge of domestic solid waste along an urban river. Solid waste found along the Ciliwung River in the neighbourhoods of Bukit Duri and Kampung Melayu may be attributed to households. This is in part due to inadequate municipal waste infrastructure and services which has caused those living along the river to rely upon it for waste disposal. However, there has been little research to understand the prevalence of household waste along the river. Our aim is to develop a methodology that deploys a low cost sensor to identify point source discharge of solid waste using image classification methods. To demonstrate this we describe the following five-step method: 1) a strip of GoPro images are captured photogrammetrically and processed for dense point cloud generation; 2) depth for each image is generated through a backward projection of the point clouds; 3) a supervised image classification method based on Random Forest classifier is applied on the view dependent red, green, blue and depth (RGB-D) data; 4) point discharge locations of solid waste can then be mapped by projecting the classified images to the 3D point clouds; 5) then the landscape elements are classified into five types, such as vegetation, human settlement, soil, water and solid waste. While this work is still ongoing, the initial results have demonstrated that it is possible to perform quantitative studies that may help reveal and estimate the amount of waste present along the river bank.
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Ibrahim A, Salmatta, Fayyaz Memon, and David Butler. "Seasonal Variation of Rainy and Dry Season Per Capita Water Consumption in Freetown City Sierra Leone." Water 13, no. 4 (February 15, 2021): 499. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13040499.
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Ensuring a sustainable urban water supply for developing/low-income countries requires an understanding of the factors affecting water consumption and technical evidence of individual consumption which can be used to design an improved water demand projection. This paper compared dry and rainy season water sources available for consumption and the end-use volume by each person in the different income groups. The study used a questionnaire survey to gather household data for a total of 398 households, which was analysed to develop the relationship between per capita water consumption characteristics: Socio-economic status, demographics, water use behaviour around indoor and outdoor water use activities. In the per capita water consumption patterns of Freetown, a seasonal variation was found: In the rainy season, per capita water consumption was found to be about 7% higher than the consumption for the full sample, whilst in the dry season, per capita water consumption was almost 14% lower than the full survey. The statistical analysis of the data shows that the average per capita water consumption for both households increases with income for informal slum-, low-, middle- and high-income households without piped connection (73, 78, 94 and 112 L/capita/day) and with connection (91, 97, 113 and 133 L/capita/day), respectively. The collected data have been used to develop 20 statistical models using the multiple linear stepwise regression method for selecting the best predictor variable from the data set. It can be seen from the values that the strongest significant relationships of per capita consumption are with the number of occupants (R = −0.728) in the household and time spent to fetch water for use (R = −0.711). Furthermore, the results reveal that the highest fraction of end use is showering (18%), then bathing (16%), followed by toilet use (14%). This is not in agreement with many developing countries where toilet use represents the largest component of indoor end use.
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Ironmonger, D. S., and C. W. Lloyd-Smith. "Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities." Journal of the Australian Population Association 9, no. 2 (November 1992): 153–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf03029367.
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Hamdi, Saber. "Of ‘Household Gods’ and Devils: Fetishism in The Old Curiosity Shop." Anglia 137, no. 3 (September 13, 2019): 411–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/ang-2019-0037.
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Abstract Shifting the focus of attention from Nell to Trent opens new possibilities of reading Dickens’s The Old Curiosity Shop. Rather than telling the story of a little child’s journey towards death, the novel is about an old man’s failure to mourn that takes on the aspect of fetishistic disavowal. Trent is a split subject whose phantasmal formations open an abyss between knowledge and belief. His grappling with loss makes him crave for money, a projection which finds its ultimate embodiment in the character of Quilp. Dickens integrates this scenario into a symbolic web centred on the topos of fetishism, which provides the metaphorical medium of the novel while being its central theme. Objects and the subjects’ relation to them are thus placed at the crossroads between an anthropological, a Marxian, and a Freudian conception of fetishism. Dickens weaves his story around the unifying thread between these three facets of the fetishistic paradigm starting from his conception of the latter as a symptom accounting for what is wrong not only with individual lives but also with collective experience. Yet the spear that wounds can also heal, and that is why Dickens’s idea of salutary fetishism as a remedy to the maladies of the self and of society does not undermine his attempt at ‘defetishizing critique’ in The Old Curiosity Shop.
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CROITORU, ALIN, MARIUS MILUȚ, CLAUDIU BUZATU, IRINA CROITORU, and R. OPRESCU. "USE OF THE STONEX S9 PLUS GPS RECEIVER FOR THE PREPARATION OF CADASTRE DOCUMENTATION FOR THE REGISTRATION IN THE LAND BOOK OF A PROPERTY." "Annals of the University of Craiova - Agriculture Montanology Cadastre Series " 51, no. 2 (December 20, 2020): 260–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.52846/aamc.2021.02.31.
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The purpose of the paper is to present a model for preparing topo-cadastral documentation for registration in the Land Book of a property, using modern equipment, methods and measurement systems. The respective building is located in Călărași commune, Sărata village, Dreptății street, number 3, Dolj county, being composed of construction yards and arable land, a residential building and two household annexes. In order to prepare the technical documentation necessary for registration in the land book of the building, a topographic survey was performed in the Stereographic 1970 projection system and the 1975 BLACK SEA reference system, using a Stonex S9 PLUS GPS receiver.
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Sebri, Maamar. "ANN versus SARIMA models in forecasting residential water consumption in Tunisia." Journal of Water, Sanitation and Hygiene for Development 3, no. 3 (February 15, 2013): 330–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/washdev.2013.031.
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Water scarcity and increasing water demand, especially for residential end-use, are major challenges facing Tunisia. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. In the current study, quarterly time series of household water consumption in Tunisia was forecast using a comparative analysis between the traditional Box–Jenkins method and an artificial neural networks approach. In particular, an attempt was made to test the effectiveness of data preprocessing, such as detrending and deseasonalization, on the accuracy of neural networks forecasting. Results indicate that the traditional Box–Jenkins method outperforms neural networks estimated on raw, detrended, or deseasonalized data in terms of forecasting accuracy. However, forecasts provided by the neural network model estimated on combined detrended and deseasonalized data are significantly more accurate and much closer to the actual data. This model is therefore selected to forecast future household water consumption in Tunisia. Projection results suggest that by 2025, water demand for residential end-use will represent around 18% of the total water demand of the country.
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Tsironi Lamari, Agapi, Spyros Panagiotakis, Zacharias Kamarianakis, George Loukas, Athanasios Malamos, and Evangelos Markakis. "Construction of a Low-Cost Layered Interactive Dashboard with Capacitive Sensing." Information 13, no. 6 (June 17, 2022): 304. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/info13060304.
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In the present work, a methodology for the low-cost crafting of an interactive layered dashboard is proposed. Our aim is that the tangible surface be constructed using domestic materials that are easily available in every household. Several tests were performed on different capacitive materials before the selection of the most suitable one for use as a capacitive touch sensor. Various calibration methods were evaluated so that the behavior of the constructed capacitive touch sensors is smooth and reliable. The layered approach is achieved by a menu of few touch buttons on the left side of the dashboard. Thus, various different layers of content can be projected over the same construction, offering extendibility and ease of use to the users. For demonstration purposes, we developed an entertaining plus an educational application of projection mapping for the pervasive and interactive projection of multimedia content to the users of the presented tangible interface. The whole design and implementation approach are thoroughly analyzed in the paper and are presented through the illustration and application of various multimedia layers over the dashboard. An evaluation of the final construction proves the feasibility of the proposed work.
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Khoirudin, Ubet, Muslikhin Hidayat, and Rochim Bakti Cahyono. "FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS AND DESIGN PROJECTION OF WASTE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM IN BALIKPAPAN." ASEAN Journal of Systems Engineering 5, no. 2 (December 30, 2021): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.22146/ajse.v5i2.72021.
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Waste generation in Balikpapan from 2016 to 2020 continues to increase by 443 to 482 tons per day. One of the efforts of DLH Balikpapan is to optimize the MRF and ITF facilities, as well as to analyze how much these facilities are needed to reduce waste generation at final disposal sites (Landfill) Manggar and enhance the durability of the landfill. The approach utilized in this study employs direct observation methods, such as data collection results on the amount of waste input and output, and secondary data, such as geometric methods and all data on waste generation in Balikpapan. The calculation of the feasibility and effectiveness analysis of the MRF inorganic waste processing facility using the recovery factor approach obtained 60.3%, while the ITF organic waste processing got a result of 45.7%.With the current condition, Manggar Landfill can be used until the end of 2025, Manggar Landfill can be used until the end of 2025. By optimizing garbage processing in these two facilities, the MRF has expanded the service coverage to 3 urban villages and has a projected age of up to 2033. It will be optimized for ITF processing facilities by utilizing process biogas. The primary objective of this research is to determine how many additional processing sites are needed starting with household waste sources thus, the calculation findings show that an additional six units of MRF facilities and ten units of ITF facilities are required. As a result, with the addition of inorganic and organic waste processing sites, Manggar's Landfill estimated age is extended until 2028.
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Strambi, Orlando, and Karin-Anne Van De Bilt. "Trip Generation Modeling Using CHAID, a Criterion-Based Segmentation Modeling Tool." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1645, no. 1 (January 1998): 24–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1645-04.
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Conventional trip generation models are identified, as are the difficulties of model application typical of segmentation problems: identification and categorization of explanatory variables and of the interactions among them. The use of CHAID (Chi-Squared Automatic Interaction Detection), a criterion-based segmentation modeling tool, is explored to analyze household trip generation rates. CHAID models are presented in the form of a tree, each final node representing a group of homogenous households concerning daily trip making. An application to data from an origin-destination survey for São Paulo produced interesting results, in agreement with theoretical expectations and amenable to interpretation based on the likely activity-travel patterns of each group of households generated by the technique. CHAID can be used as an exploratory technique for aiding model development or as a model by itself. The use of CHAID results as a trip generation model was verified through an evaluation of its predictive capability in a cross comparison of two subsamples and through a comparison of observed versus predicted trips at a zone level; the segmentation of households produced by the technique provided good estimates of trip rates and zone totals. The application of a modeling approach requiring a highly disaggregate projection of the population may become possible considering the advances in methods for the generation of synthetic populations. The use of these methods in conjunction with a segmentation model represents an alternative to conventional trip generation models and an opportunity to introduce new population forecasting techniques into transportation planning practice.
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Zeng, Yi, Eric Stallard, and Zhenglian Wang. "Estimating time-varying sex-age-specific o/e rates of marital status transitions in family household projection or simulation." Demographic Research 11 (December 3, 2004): 263–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.4054/demres.2004.11.10.
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Adhikari, Dibya, Shree Raj Shakya, Nawraj Bhattarai, and Yagya Prasad Gaire. "Sustainable energy planning of residential sector: A case study of Bhanu municipality." Journal of Innovations in Engineering Education 4, no. 2 (June 6, 2021): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jiee.v4i2.35007.
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This study analyzes the energy situation of Bhanu Municipality, Tanahun, Nepal and deals for future energy projection and sustainable energy planning. Municipality occupies an area of 184 sq. km. This research is mainly based on primary data and supported by secondary data from various sources. For collection of primary data, 152 random household samples were surveyed and the locals were interviewed on their annual consumption. Data analysis was done with the help of excel and LEAP software. Major energy sources in the Municipality are forests, water resource, agricultural residues, animal dung and solar. Analysis shows that the total energy consumption of Bhanu municipality is 635.67TJ with per capita consumption is 12.69 GJ. The main fuel for cooking in the residential sector is firewood with share of 80% due to easily accessible from private, government and community forests which covers 38% of the municipality area. Lighting is done through grid electricity, almost 98% of the households has access to Grid. The analysis was made through different scenarios in LEAP i.e., Low Carbon Emission Scenario, Efficient Cooking Scenario, Efficient Lighting Scenario based on Municipal plans and Sustainable Goal 7.Low emission scenario is the policy intervention scenario in which electrification of end use demands is done for limiting the GHGs emissions.
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Maliarenko, O. Ye, N. Yu Maistrenko, and V. V. Horskyi. "Forecast of fuel and coal consumption in Ukraine until 2040 by a complex method of forecasting energy consumption." Problems of General Energy 2021, no. 3 (September 23, 2021): 28–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/pge2021.03.028.
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The article presents a projection of Ukraine economy development up to 2040 according to the baseline scenario, taking into account the changes that have occurred during 2017-2020. Using the projection, a preliminary estimate of the forecasted demand for electricity at the national level (TOP-DOWN method) for 2040 was developed, which taking into account a new national thermal power production structure including structure of coal-fired power plants according to the NPC “Ukrenergo” 2020 Adequacy Report. Based on these data, the forecast for fuel demand in the country including coal for 2040 is developed, which takes into account consolidated economic activities, changes in household sector, the potential of energy savings from structural changes and technological changes. Also, the forecast of fuel and coal use for transformation in industrial technological processes and in power plants are calculated. The study shows that fuel consumption in the country is significantly influenced by two factors: the structure of the economy and the structure of generating capacity for electricity and heat. Reducing the share of fossil fuels in electricity generation leads to almost constant consumption. The structural potential for energy savings is almost 50% of the total. Keywords: forecast, demand, fuel, coal, structure of economy, technological potential of energy saving, method
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Isranuri, Ikhwansyah, and Nur Asnah Sitohang. "Pengembangan Sistem Penyediaan Air Bersih dengan Metode Appropriate Technology di Kelurahan Mekar Sari Kecamatan Rambutan Pemko Tebing Tinggi." Jurnal Riset Hesti Medan Akper Kesdam I/BB Medan 6, no. 1 (June 1, 2021): 34. http://dx.doi.org/10.34008/jurhesti.v6i1.230.
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Planning for a clean water supply system is a community service program carried out by USU in collaboration with the Dinas Pemberdayaan Masyarakat dan Desa(PMD) of the Pemko Tebing Tinggi. The problem encountered is the unavailability of clean water. This condition can interfere with people's daily activities such as the need for households. The clean water supply system that is implemented is the application of appropriate technology in the sense that it is easy to operate and all components are easy to care for by the public. The purpose of this activity is to provide clean water that meets health requirements, namely colorless, tasteless and odorless. This system is also planned to provide clean water for the next few years. The projection of population growth is also a consideration, which is calculated based on the average population growth data. Based on the Indonesian National Standard (SNI), the need for clean water for a population with a population of 300 households with the household category is 120 liters per person per day, so the water requirement is 1.67 liters/second. The source of water is obtained by digging 15 meters deep by installing 15 concrete rings with a diameter of 80 cm and a height of 100 cm. Then a pump is installed to suck water and then it is pumped into a poly tank (capacity 2100 liters) storage tank which is located at a height of 5-6 meters. Before flowing from the tank to the pipe, the water is filtered using a filter. For this purpose, a piping installation complete with a valve and a float is designed to automatically close the pipe when the tank is full. The result of water from this system is clean water and suitable for consumption by residents.
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Razumova, Irina A. "History of the Family and Native Place in the Projection of the Life Path of a Professional Folklorist and Ethnographer." Texts and History: Journal of Philological, Historical and Cultural Texts and History Studies 2 (2021): 155–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.31860/2712-7591-2021-2-155-169.
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The purpose of the article is to determine the value of works like the book Pomni korni svoi (“Remember your roots”) by the Karelian folklorist A.S. Stepanova about the history of her native village for humanitarian research and for the dissemination of historical and ethnographic knowledge. Stepanova’s book is examined in the context of problems concerning the possibilities and ways of reconciling academic and personal everyday knowledge in the situation when a humanities scholar is acting as a first-hand historian or as an ordinary life writer. While Stepanova’s scholarly works on Karelian lamentations are internationally known, the book in question was published both in Russian and Karelian and is addressed to her direct descendants. It is about the North Karelian village of Shombozero, which no longer exists. Most of its inhabitants were related by kinship. The narrative is based on the author's memoirs and autobiography. The book includes the results of genealogical reconstruction, documentary information about the history of the settlement, oral history materials, and the demographic history of households in the late 19th — first half of the 20th centuries. It describes the topography of the area, ways of communication and means of transportation, the traditional household, and economic and everyday life of the Karelians in the 1930s–1950s. The history of the place and the everyday life of its inhabitants are presented in the projection of the formation and life path of a professional philologist and teacher. The author of the book describes and reflects on the activities of rural “national” boarding schools in the 1930s–1940s, teachers and students, life stories of various immigrants from local peasant families, the daily life of university students in the 1950s, twists and turns in the life of her family, the process of becoming a scholar, and episodes from the history of the study of Karelian folklore. As a result, the book notably exceeds its objective to preserve family memory. It is a valuable source for the study of ethnography, ethno-social and ethno-linguistic processes, the circulation of folklore, social history of families and other areas of humanitarian and social studies. It conveys both local and general historical knowledge and can be used by specialists as a professional description of the life of the settler and family-related communities during changes due to chrisis.
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Константинов and A. Konstantinov. "Technical Drawing in Graphic Knowledge’s Bases Studying." Geometry & Graphics 5, no. 1 (April 17, 2017): 51–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/25124.
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In this paper the interrelation of an axonometric and perspective drawing with a represented object’s real vision is considered. What are the most noticeable axonometric and perspective deformations, how is the axonometric and perspective image of a subject differs from its outlines, visible in real space, in nature? Why it is necessary to choose some types of axonometric projections and separate types of linear prospect with care? What mistakes in drawing of such elementary objects as geometrical bodies, household ware, details and models, arise from literal following to "conditional rules" of this or that commonly accepted projection? How to eliminate these characteristic errors and to bring an image closer to subject’s visual perception? Irrespective of specialization and preliminary training on the academic (art) drawing, students, as experience shows, approach the beginning of training in the technical drawing approximately with identical "baggage" of knowledge, skills, deep rooted mistakes and ideas on the drawing of elementary objects. How justify this? – By means of the fact that drawing teachers due to various reasons don't explain (or can't explain) practically, and don't correct the simplest constructions of elementary objects’ images. If when drawing "from nature" there is almost always "a copying method" with additional adjustment of result, then when analytical drawing (technical drawing’s primary subject) an image object before draftsman’s eyes is absent, and it is required not only to strain fantasy and imagination, but also to know what to do, possess certain techniques, and sequence of constructions. The technical drawing is not some special type of images which is constructed according to its own laws, but alleviated, simplified version of the art drawing. A main aim of the technical drawing is not creation an object’s artistic image, but a "technical aspect" – identification on the image of the object its construction, geometrical surfaces, components, functional principle. In the technical drawing the drawing itself has conditionality, i.e. the drawing is carried out not absolutely as the object is seen by a draftsman, but as it will look in one of axonometric (perspective) projections chosen by the draftsman. How to bring the drawing by "conditional rules" into coincidence with the object "vision"? First of all it’s necessary to exclude all possible and in advance "programmed" on "failures" projections and positions of imaging objects. To consider probability of images’ "visualization shortcomings" even in quite "acceptable" projections, and eliminate these shortcomings with appropriate methods. To correct unsuccessful images.
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Santoso, Dian Hudawan, and Wisnu Aji Dwi Kristanto. "IDENTIFIKASI EMISI CO₂ PADA PENGGUNAAN LAHAN PERMUKIMAN DI KECAMATAN MLATI KABUPATEN SLEMAN YOGYAKARTA." Jurnal Mineral, Energi, dan Lingkungan 4, no. 1 (June 10, 2020): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.31315/jmel.v4i1.3159.
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Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the greenhouse gas that play a role in increasing air temperature and global warming. The increasing trend of greenhouse gas over time requires estimation efforts for anticipation and reduction. This research was conducted Mlati sub district, Sleman Regency, Yogyakarta, in which there are types of rural and urban areas. This study aims to determine the amount of CO2 emissions in the form of settlement land and predict future CO2 emissions.The method used is Proportionate Stratified Random Sampling. Data collection using survey methods, questionnaires and interviews. The calculated variable is household domestic activity in the amount of cooking fuel, transportation fuel, used electric power and waste generated. Data analysis in this study used descriptive analysis, graphical analysis, statistical analysis, and spatial analysis CO₂rural emission value is 90,576,231.93 KgCO₂ / Year, urban 183.878.846,2 KgCO₂ / Year. CO2 emission projection value in Mlati sub-district for 2020: 380.966.673.9 KgCO₂ / Year, year 2025: 394.723.846,3 KgCO₂ / Year and year 2030: 408.481.018,7 KgCO₂ / Year Keywords: CO2 Emissions, Domestic Activities, Land use of Settlement
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Rezagama, Arya, Purwono, and Verika Damayanti. "Sustainable Development Strategy Of Domestic Waste Infrastructure In The City Of Surakarta." E3S Web of Conferences 31 (2018): 05003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20183105003.
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Shifting from traditional system to large, centralised infrastructure domestic waste is widely complex challenge. Most of fhe sanitary system on household in Surakarta use on site septictank, 17% sewerage system reached and16,0% stll open defecations. Sanitation development sustained aims to develop policy and strategies waste management domestic Surakarta in the long term (20 years). The projection use quantitative method and institutional condition approach by SWOT analysis. Surakarta City get priority sanitation urban planning from Indonesian government in Presiden Joko Widodo era. The domestic waste management systems that is Surakarta divided into system on-site and system off site. Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) mojosongo, WWTP pucangsawit and WWTP Semanggi will be developed to treat 30% domestic waste of Surakarta Residence. While on-site system will are served 70% residence by service programs Regular Cleaning Septictank. The toughest challenge is how to increase community participation in waste management and improve the company”s financial condition. Sanitation sustainable development is going to happen if supported by facility development also good, institutional development, the arrangement that oversees, and the public participation.
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Liu, Yingcheng, Tao Zhang, Xiaoli Geng, Liansheng He, and Zhiguo Pang. "Herdsmen’s Adaptation to Climate Changes and Subsequent Impacts in the Ecologically Fragile Zone, China." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/748715.
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The change of land surface can exert significant influence on the future climate change. This study analyzed the effects of herdsmen’s adaptation to climate changes on the livestock breeding, income, and land surface dynamics with a land surface parameterization scheme. The empirical analysis was first carried out on the impacts of the adaptation measures of herdsmen on their income in the context of the climate change with the positive mathematical programming (PMP) model on the basis of the household survey data in the Three-River Source Region, an ecologically fragile area in Qinghai Province, China. Then, the land surface parameterization process is analyzed based on the agent-based model (ABM), which involves the herdsmen’s adaptation measures on climate change, and it also provides reference for the land surface change projection. The result shows that the climate change adaptation measures will have a positive effect on the increasing of the amount of herdsman’s livestock and income as well as future land surface dynamics. Some suggestions on the land use management were finally proposed, which can provide significant reference information for the land use planning.
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Choudhury, Lincoln Priyadarshi. "Reducing stunting among less than five years children in Nagaland, India: a lives saved tool projection from 2018-2025." International Journal Of Community Medicine And Public Health 6, no. 11 (October 24, 2019): 4901. http://dx.doi.org/10.18203/2394-6040.ijcmph20195077.
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Background: Malnutrition is one of the key public health challenges for the state of Nagaland, India. In the backdrop of the global call for a reduction in malnutrition, this paper explores the feasibility of the state reaching the global targets reducing stunting among less than six years age children by 2025.Methods: Data from Census, National Family Health Survey were primarily used. Based on published literature, ten interventions that influence stunting were selected. The lives saved tool module of Spectrum software was used for analysis. This paper examined the effect of above interventions on stunting among zero to five-year old children. Three different scenarios with different coverage combinations were created for the years 2012 to 2025 and compared with global targets.Results: The analysis found that in none of the three scenarios the state will be achieving the global target. The projected stunting levels in 2025 will vary between 3-21% increase from the baseline figures in 2012. Though with increased coverage, the increasing trend of stunting could be reversed by 2025. Reaching the global target of 40% reduction in stunting by 2015 from the 2012 levels may take more time than the year 2025.Conclusions: Long-term programs with specific targets and processes need to be developed to address malnutrition. The scale of interventions, translation of behaviour change interventions at the household level and addition of new elements to an integrated program may achieve a better result.
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Barrett, Greg, and Margaret Wallace. "Characteristics of Australian urban residential water users: implications for water demand management and whole of the system water accounting framework." Water Policy 11, no. 4 (August 1, 2009): 413–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wp.2009.061b.
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Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Household Expenditure Survey for 1998/99, are used to investigate the characteristics of households with a high per capita water use in Canberra, Australia's capital city. The results indicate that higher per capita water use is a function of household size (with large households achieving economies of size by sharing water consuming resources) and household income (with wealthy individuals using more water per capita). Linking these findings to Australian Bureau of Statistics projections of shrinking household size, the authors conclude that the resultant decline in household efficiency will drive up the demand for water, unless offset by demand management policies that focus not just on consumer behaviour (e.g. water restrictions) but also on the water efficiency of housing and domestic water-using appliances.
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Ванг Юй. "БАГАТОВИМІРНІСТЬ ВТІЛЕНЬ СЮЖЕТУ ТУРАНДОТ В ЖАНРІ ТЕАТРАЛЬНОЇ МУЗИКИ." World Science 3, no. 3(43) (March 31, 2019): 34–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.31435/rsglobal_ws/31032019/6419.
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The article deals with the historical projection of the 300-year-old path of the Turandot image in the genre of theatrical music. After completing all the stages of European exoticism in Chinese subjects, Turandot was embodied in the main stages of the development of musical drama - from the baroque French Fair Theater Fory Saint-Lauren (Le Sage / d'Orneval for the first time analyzed music by J.C. Gillіer) through the pre-classical model of Italian folk (K. Gozzi) to the concept of German romanticism (F. Schiller ‒ F. Destush, K.M. Weber, W. Lyahner), oriental readings of the early modern days: neoclassical (F. Buzoni), symbolist (W. Ferst), primitive-naive (Y. Vakhtangov), psychologically-expressionistic (W. Stenhammar), household-entertaining variants (Broadway Theater) and complex multicomponent phenomena of the second half of the twentieth century, embodied in the "epic theater" (B. Brecht / H. D. Hosalla, Y. Lakner, A. Schnitke) and means "Theater of absurd" (W. Hilderschmayer), based on postmodernistic parameters of hybrid genre formations in Ukrainian culture (M. Denisenko, I. Uryvskiy) in the globalized reference of intercultural communication of the beginning of the third millennium.
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Mutisya, Immaculate, Evelyn Muthoni, Raphael O. Ondondo, Jacques Muthusi, Lennah Omoto, Charlotte Pahe, Abraham Katana, et al. "A national household survey on HIV prevalence and clinical cascade among children aged ≤15 years in Kenya (2018)." PLOS ONE 17, no. 11 (November 23, 2022): e0277613. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0277613.
Full textAbstract:
We analyzed data from the 2018 Kenya Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (KENPHIA), a cross-sectional, nationally representative survey, to estimate the burden and prevalence of pediatric HIV infection, identify associated factors, and describe the clinical cascade among children aged < 15 years in Kenya. Interviewers collected information from caregivers or guardians on child’s demographics, HIV testing, and treatment history. Blood specimens were collected for HIV serology and if HIV-positive, the samples were tested for viral load and antiretrovirals (ARV). For participants <18 months TNA PCR is performed. We computed weighted proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI), accounting for the complex survey design. We used bivariable and multivariable logistic regression to assess factors associated with HIV prevalence. Separate survey weights were developed for interview responses and for biomarker testing to account for the survey design and non-response. HIV burden was estimated by multiplying HIV prevalence by the national population projection by age for 2018. Of 9072 survey participants (< 15 years), 87% (7865) had blood drawn with valid HIV test results. KENPHIA identified 57 HIV-positive children, translating to an HIV prevalence of 0.7%, (95% CI: 0.4%–1.0%) and an estimated 138,900 (95% CI: 84,000–193,800) of HIV among children in Kenya. Specifically, children who were orphaned had about 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to those not orphaned, adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 2.2 (95% CI:1.0–4.8). Additionally, children whose caregivers had no knowledge of their HIV status also had 2 times higher odds of HIV-infection compared to whose caregivers had knowledge of their HIV status, aOR 2.4 (95% CI: 1.1–5.4)”. From the unconditional analysis; population level estimates, 78.9% of HIV-positive children had known HIV status (95% CI: 67.1%–90.2%), 73.6% (95% CI: 60.9%–86.2%) were receiving ART, and 49% (95% CI: 32.1%–66.7%) were virally suppressed. However, in the clinical cascade for HIV infected children, 92% (95% CI: 84.4%–100%) were receiving ART, and of these, 67.1% (95% CI: 45.1%–89.2%) were virally suppressed. The KENPHIA survey confirms a substantial HIV burden among children in Kenya, especially among orphans.