Journal articles on the topic 'Household microsimulation'
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Walker, Joan L. "Making Household Microsimulation of Travel and Activities Accessible to Planners." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1931, no. 1 (January 2005): 38–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105193100105.
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There is a large gap between the aggregate, trip-based models used by transportation planning agencies and the activity-based, microsimulation methods espoused by those at the forefront of research. The modeling environment presented here is intended to bridge this gap by providing a palatable way for planning agencies to move toward advanced methods. Three components to bridging the gap are emphasized: an incremental approach, a demonstration of clear gains, and a provision of an environment that eases initial implementation and allows for expansion. The modeling environment (called STEP2) is a household microsimulator, developed in TransCAD, that can be used to implement a four-step model as well as models with longer-term behavior and trip chaining. An implementation for southern Nevada is described, and comparisons are made with the region's aggregate four-step model. The models perform similarly in numerous ways. A key advantage to the microsimulator is that it provides impacts by socioeconomic group (essential for equity analysis) and individual trip movements (for use in a vehicle microsimulator). A sensitivity analysis indicates that the microsimulation model has less inelastic cross elasticity of transit demand with respect to auto travel times than the aggregate model (aggregation error). The trade-off is that microsimulators have simulation error; results are presented regarding the severity of this error. This work shows that a shift to microsimulation does not necessarily require substantial investment to achieve many of the benefits. One of the greatest advantages is a flexible environment that can expand to include additional sensitivity to demographics and transportation policy variables.
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Addabbo, Tindara, Rosa María García-Fernández, Carmen María Llorca-Rodríguez, and Anna Maccagnan. "A microsimulation model to measure the impact of the economic crisis on household income." International Journal of Manpower 37, no. 3 (June 6, 2016): 474–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijm-06-2014-0125.
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Purpose – The current economic crisis has significantly increased unemployment, showing higher persistence than expected. However, since microdata from household surveys are issued with delay, they do not allow a prompt analysis of the impact of the economic cycle on households’ living conditions. The purpose of this paper is to propose a microsimulation methodology to achieve an evaluation of the impact of economic shocks in terms of household’s living conditions to guide policy makers. Design/methodology/approach – The microsimulation technique developed in this paper is based on a nowcasting approach by using different sources of data and by taking into account a whole set of potential transitions across the different statuses of the labour market and the related changes in income. To validate this microsimulation method, the authors apply it to Italy, a country that has been deeply affected by the crisis. Findings – Data have been drawn from the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey for Italy (IT SILC) and from the Labour Force Survey for Italy. The latter data allow us to take into account the changes in the labour market status of individuals due to economic shocks. The validation results support the capability of the model to simulate the effect of the cycle before actual data on income are available. Social implications – The results obtained would encourage the use of the suggested methodology to anticipate the effect of the economic cycle on household’s income therefore enabling the design of effective policies to sustain household income with positive practical and social implications. Originality/value – Distinct from other microsimulation techniques the methodology proposed in this paper allows us to take into account behavioural effects and the change in the composition of employment and unemployment. Moreover, the authors contribute to the existing literature by considering a whole set of transitions across different labour market statuses and the related changes in income.
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Denisova, Irina, and Nikita Varioshkin. "The impact of foreign trade shocks on well-being of Russian households: Microsimulation approach." Applied Econometrics 68, no. 4 (2022): 73–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.22394/1993-7601-2022-68-73-92.
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In recent years, there have been significant fluctuations in world prices for essential goods, many of which have a significant share in the consumption basket of households. In this study, we analyze how fluctuations in world wheat prices affect the well‐being of Russian households. We provide estimates of average welfare losses and of welfare losses in different parts of welfare distribution. We also identify which socio‐demographic groups bear the brunt of such price shocks. For evaluation, a micro‐ simulation approach to model the expenditure part of household budgets is used. The empirical basis is the data of the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) for 2020. When modeling a 50% rise in prices for bread, flour and pasta, the average losses amounted to 2.9% of total household expenditures, the largest losses, 5.5% of total expenditures, fall on households in the first decile. Those living in rural areas or urban‐type settlements, as well as households headed by a female pensioner, suffer losses at the level of 3% of total household expenses. Families with children are not among the most vulnerable groups with rising prices for bread, flour and pasta.
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Amarante, Veronica. "Inequality and Household Size: A Microsimulation for Uruguay." International Journal of Microsimulation 10, no. 1 (2016): 73–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00150.
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Cova, Thomas J., and Justin P. Johnson. "Microsimulation of Neighborhood Evacuations in the Urban–Wildland Interface." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 34, no. 12 (December 2002): 2211–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a34251.
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Residential development in fire-prone wildlands is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Community-based evacuation planning in many areas is an emerging need. In this paper we present a method for using microscopic traffic simulation to develop and test neighborhood evacuation plans in the urban–wildland interface. The method allows an analyst to map the subneighborhood variation in household evacuation travel times under various scenarios. A custom scenario generator manages household trip generation, departure timing, and destination choice. Traffic simulation, route choice, and dynamic visualization are handled by a commercial system. We present a case study for a controversial fire-prone canyon community east of Salt Lake City, Utah. GIS was used to map the spatial effects of a proposed second access road on household evacuation times. Our results indicate that the second road will reduce some household travel times much more than others, but all evacuation travel times will become more consistent.
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Rogers, Susan M., James Rineer, Matthew D. Scruggs, William D. Wheaton, Phillip C. Cooley, Douglas J. Roberts, and Diane K. Wagener. "A Geospatial Dynamic Microsimulation Model for Household Population Projections." International Journal of Microsimulation 7, no. 2 (2013): 119–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00102.
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Zhou, Bin (Brenda), and Kara M. Kockelman. "Microsimulation of Residential Land Development and Household Location Choices." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2077, no. 1 (January 2008): 106–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/2077-14.
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Salanauskaitė, Lina, and Gerlinde Verbist. "Family Benefit Reform in Lithuania: Microsimulation of Its Distributional Impacts." Lietuvos statistikos darbai 52, no. 1 (December 20, 2013): 58–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/ljs.2013.13925.
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The paper explores to what extent the Lithuanian family benefit system is able to reduce inequality and poverty among families with children, with poverty reduction being one of the major aims. Family benefits underwent a major reform in2004, which entailed a shift from means-tested benefits to a more universal system. Due to budget constraints, the implementation of the full reform design has been postponed until 2008. No distributional impact analysis of this reform, either of its initial or of its final designs, has been implemented yet. Furthermore, we analyse whether the gains from the newly designed system of family benefits are not outweighed by respective losses in social assistance benefits. To conduct such an analysis, we develop a partial static microsimulation model based on the EU-SILC (household income and living conditions) survey. The model is programmed in STATA statistical software. Our findings show that, despite small income improvements brought by the reform, its overall child poverty reduction effectiveness is limited. Moreover, the interaction of a family benefit with the social assistance system implies that some household types are relatively “bigger” winners compared to others. For example, our research reveals that single-parent households would obtain income gains comparable to those of large families only when the full reform scenario is implemented. If considering indirect effects (i.e. the loss of social assistance benefits), their relative gains become even smaller.
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Jahoda, Robert, and Jana Godarová. "Family policy in the Czech Republic: Redistribution of wealth through the child tax bonus." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 61, no. 7 (2013): 2213–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201361072213.
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Families with children are traditionally the target group of the social system in developed countries. This paper deals with one component of family policy in the Czech Republic, which is household entitlement. The main focus is on the child tax bonus (hereafter CTB). The paper is divided into descriptive and methodological-analytical parts. The descriptive section provides basic information about the beneficiaries of CTB. In the latter section we formulate research questions about the impacts and effects of CTB. We discover that the influence of tax instruments has grown in recent years. The amount of the tax bonus for children exceeded CZK 3 billion in 2009, with almost 22% of all households with children eligible. Although CTB is income-tested, its redistributive impact is rather small – approximately 80% of recipients cannot be considered as poor. Outcomes from our microsimulation model reveal that 82 to 86% households with CTB were at the same time modelled as eligible and therefore we can use microsimulation techniques for future analyses of policy change.
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Graetz, Nick, Kevin Ummel, and Daniel Aldana Cohen. "Small-Area Analyses Using Public American Community Survey Data: A Tree-Based Spatial Microsimulation Technique." Sociological Methodology 52, no. 1 (December 16, 2021): 53–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00811750211057572.
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Quantitative sociologists and social policymakers are increasingly interested in local context. Some city-specific studies have developed new primary data collection efforts to analyze inequality at the neighborhood level, but methods from spatial microsimulation have yet to be broadly used in sociology to take better advantage of existing public data sets. The American Community Survey (ACS) is the largest household survey in the United States and indispensable for detailed analysis of specific places and populations. The authors propose a technique, tree-based spatial microsimulation, to produce “small-area” (census-tract) estimates of any person- or household-level phenomenon that can be derived from ACS microdata variables. The approach is straightforward and computationally efficient, based only on publicly available data, and it provides more reliable estimates than do prevailing methods of microsimulation. The authors demonstrate the technique’s capabilities by producing tract-level estimates, stratified by race/ethnicity, of (1) the proportion of people in the census-tract population who have children and work in an essential occupation and (2) the proportion of people in the census-tract population living below the federal poverty threshold and in a household that spends greater than 50 percent of monthly income on rent or owner costs. These examples are relevant to understanding the sociospatial inequalities dramatized by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. The authors discuss potential extensions of the technique to derive small-area estimates of variables observed in surveys other than the ACS.
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Nelissen, J. H. M. "Household and education projections by means of a microsimulation model." Economic Modelling 8, no. 4 (October 1991): 480–511. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0264-9993(91)90029-n.
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Sefton, James, and Justin van de Ven. "Simulating Household Savings and Labour Supply: an Application of Dynamic Programming." National Institute Economic Review 188 (April 2004): 56–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/00279501041881005.
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This paper describes a fully behavioural microsimulation model that has recently been developed at the National Institute for considering responses to changes in pension policy of household savings and labour supply. The model generates household decisions regarding labour/leisure, and consumption/savings by solving a dynamic programming problem over the simulated lifetime. This analytical framework incorporates a degree of complexity that is usually omitted from econometric analyses that are common in the literature.
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Fukawa, Tetsuo. "Projection of Social Burden of the Elderly in Japan Using INAHSIM-II." Epidemiology Research International 2012 (August 23, 2012): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/832325.
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By using a microsimulation model named INAHSIM, we conducted a household projection in Japan for the period of 2011–2060. Due to rapid aging of the population, the distribution of the elderly (65 years old or older) by living arrangement and dependency level has a profound impact on the future social burden. In this paper, we measured the social burden of the elderly by three variables: (1) institutionalization rate (percentage of the elderly living in institutions), (2) parent-child ratio (relative number of old parents taking into account the number of brothers and sisters), and (3) one-year transition matrix of the elderly by household type. Especially, the choice of the elderly among (a) living independently, (b) coresident with child households, and (c) moving to institutions are crucial indicators for the future social burden of the elderly in Japan.
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van de Ven, Justin. "A structural dynamic microsimulation model of household savings and labour supply." Economic Modelling 28, no. 4 (July 2011): 2054–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.04.009.
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Lefebvre, Mathieu, and Sergio Perelman. "Public pension wealth and household asset holdings: new evidence from Belgium." Journal of Pension Economics and Finance 19, no. 3 (January 22, 2019): 309–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474747218000409.
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AbstractIt has been long suggested that public pension wealth may crowd out household savings. However, there remains controversy about the extent of this displacement effect. In this paper we use an original microsimulation model based on retrospective survey data collected through the third wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) to estimate the displacement effect of public pension wealth on other wealth in Belgium. Combining this rich dataset with an accurate estimation of the individual pension entitlements allows us to circumvent some of the main measurement error problems faced by previous studies. We estimate that an extra euro of public pension wealth is associated with about 14–25 cent decline in households’ non-pension wealth.
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Moeckel, Rolf, Nico Kuehnel, Carlos Llorca, Ana Tsui Moreno, and Hema Rayaprolu. "Agent-Based Simulation to Improve Policy Sensitivity of Trip-Based Models." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2020 (February 25, 2020): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1902162.
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The most common travel demand model type is the trip-based model, despite major shortcomings due to its aggregate nature. Activity-based models overcome many of the limitations of the trip-based model, but implementing and calibrating an activity-based model is labor-intensive and running an activity-based model often takes long runtimes. This paper proposes a hybrid called MITO (Microsimulation Transport Orchestrator) that overcomes some of the limitations of trip-based models, yet is easier to implement than an activity-based model. MITO uses microsimulation to simulate each household and person individually. After trip generation, the travel time budget in minutes is calculated for every household. This budget influences destination choice; i.e., people who spent a lot of time commuting are less likely to do much other travel, while people who telecommute might compensate by additional discretionary travel. Mode choice uses a nested logit model, and time-of-day choice schedules trips in 1-minute intervals. Three case studies demonstrate how individuals may be traced through the entire model system from trip generation to the assignment.
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Morrissey, Karyn, and Cathal O'Donoghue. "The Spatial Distribution of Labour Force Participation and Market Earnings at the Sub-National Level in Ireland." Review of Economic Analysis 3, no. 1 (May 1, 2011): 80–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.15353/rea.v3i1.1378.
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The main aim of this paper is to provide a spatial modelling framework for labour force
participation and income estimation. The development of a household income distribution for Ireland had previously been hampered by the lack of disaggregated data on individual earnings. Spatial microsimulation through a process of calibration provides a method which allows one to recreate the spatial distribution LFP and household market income at the small area level. Further analysis examines the relationship between LFP, occupational type and market income at the small area level in Co. Galway Ireland.
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Miller, Eric J., and Matthew J. Roorda. "Prototype Model of Household Activity-Travel Scheduling." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1831, no. 1 (January 2003): 114–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1831-13.
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The Toronto Area Scheduling Model for Household Agents (TASHA), a new prototype activity scheduling microsimulation model, generates activity schedules and travel patterns for a 24-h typical weekday for all persons in a household. The prototype model is based solely on conventional trip diary data and therefore is applicable in many urban areas where activity data may not be available. The model makes use of the concept of the project, a "container" of activities with a common goal, to organize activity episodes into the schedules of persons in a household. A heuristic, or rule-based, method is used to organize activities into projects and then to form schedules for interacting household members. The TASHA model is considered to be a successful first attempt to operationalize a generalized conceptual model of household decision making, with reasonable correspondence between model and observed trip rates and chain characteristics.
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Bhattacharjee, Arnab, and Elena Lisauskaite. "COVID-19 IMPACTS ON DESTITUTION IN THE UK." National Institute Economic Review 253 (July 28, 2020): R77—R85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.31.
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We use microsimulation combined with a model of the COVID-19 impacts on individuals and households to obtain projections of households in destitution in the United Kingdom. The projections are estimated at two levels: aggregate quarterly for the UK, for all quarters of 2020; and annual for 2020 differentiated by region, sector and household demographics. At the aggregate level, destitution is projected to be about three times higher than the non-COVID counterfactual level in 2020Q2, as well as substantially higher than the non-COVID case for the remainder of the year. This increased destitution is initially largely due to the effect on the self-employed, and as the Furlough scheme is drawn down, also on the unemployed. Impacts upon different regions and sectors vary widely, and so do variations across different household types. The sectors particularly affected are construction and manufacturing, while London and its closely connected regions (South East and the Midlands) are most severely affected. Single adult households suffer the most, and the adverse effects increase with number of children in the household. That the effects upon youth remain high is a particularly worrying sign, and very high increases in destitution are also projected for 25–54 year olds and the elderly (75 years and older). Further, severe adverse effects are projected for sections of society and the economy where multiple impacts are coincident. Robust and sustained mitigation measures are therefore required.
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Mohammadian, Abolfazl, and Eric J. Miller. "Dynamic Modeling of Household Automobile Transactions." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1831, no. 1 (January 2003): 98–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1831-11.
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Automobiles play a pivotal role in daily life, which makes them a subject of interest in many academic fields. Transportation planners are interested in knowing how many and what types of automobiles are owned by households, how people adjust their fleet, and how they use their vehicles. The primary objective of this study was to develop a comprehensive dynamic model of household automobile transactions at a disaggregate level to be used in a dynamic microsimulation modeling framework that can provide a direct forecast of consumer demand for personal-use vehicles. A market-based decision-making process and a transaction approach were applied for this project because of their consistency with the actual processes followed by decision makers. In the proposed framework, each year a decision maker faces four choices: add a new vehicle to the fleet, dispose of one vehicle, trade one of the vehicles in the fleet, or do nothing. A mixed (random parameters) logit model was used to investigate the effects of heterogeneity in the dynamic transaction model and distinguish between heterogeneity- and state-dependence-based explanations for the observed persistence in choice behavior. In this study, the application of dynamic variables representing the occurrence of changes in household state and their impacts on the observed behavior were also investigated.
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Schoch, Tobias, and André Müller. "Treatment of sample under-representation and skewed heavy-tailed distributions in survey-based microsimulation: An analysis of redistribution effects in compulsory health care insurance in Switzerland." AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv 14, no. 3-4 (September 1, 2020): 267–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11943-020-00275-8.
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Abstract The credibility of microsimulation modeling with the research community and policymakers depends on high-quality baseline surveys. Quality problems with the baseline survey tend to impair the quality of microsimulation built on top of the survey data. We address two potential issues that both relate to skewed and heavy-tailed distributions.First, we find that ultra-high-income households are under-represented in the baseline household survey. Moreover, the sample estimate of average income underestimates the known population average. Although the Deville–Särndal calibration method corrects the under-representation, it cannot achieve alignment of estimated average income in the right tail of the distribution with known population values without distorting the empirical income distribution. To overcome the problem, we introduce a Pareto tail model. With the help of the tail model, we can adjust the sample income distribution in the tail to meet the alignment targets. Our method can be a useful tool for microsimulation modelers working with survey income data.The second contribution refers to the treatment of an outlier-prone variable that has been added to the survey by record linkage (our empirical example is health care cost). The nature of the baseline survey is not affected by record linkage, that is, the baseline survey still covers only a small part of the population. Hence, the sampling weights are relatively large. An outlying observation together with a high sampling weight can heavily influence or even ruin an estimate of a population characteristic. Thus, we argue that it is beneficial—in terms of mean square error—to use robust estimation and alignment methods, because robust methods are less affected by the presence of outliers.
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Ramos, María Priscila, Estefanía Custodio, Sofía Jiménez, Alfredo J. Mainar-Causapé, Pierre Boulanger, and Emanuele Ferrari. "Do agri-food market incentives improve food security and nutrition indicators? a microsimulation evaluation for Kenya." Food Security 14, no. 1 (September 30, 2021): 209–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01215-2.
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AbstractThe sustainable development goal #2 aims at ending hunger and malnutrition by 2030. Given the numbers of food insecure and malnourished people on the rise, the heterogeneity of nutritional statuses and needs, and the even worse context of COVID-19 pandemic, this has become an urgent challenge for food-related policies. This paper provides a comprehensive microsimulation approach to evaluate economic policies on food access, sufficiency (energy) and adequacy (protein, fat, carbohydrate) at household level. The improvement in market access conditions in Kenya is simulated as an application case of this method, using original insights from households’ surveys and biochemical and nutritional information by food item. Simulation’s results suggest that improving market access increases food purchasing power overall the country, with a pro-poor impact in rural areas. The daily energy consumption per capita and macronutrients intakes per capita increase at the national level, being the households with at least one stunted child under 5 years old, and poor households living areas outside Mombasa and Nairobi, those which benefit the most. The developed method and its Kenya's application contribute to the discussion on how to evaluate nutrition-sensitive policies, and how to cover most households suffering food insecurity and nutrition deficiencies in any given country.
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Petreski, Marjan. "Remittances and Labour Supply Revisited: New Evidence from the Macedonian Behavioural Tax and Benefit Microsimulation Model." Migration Letters 16, no. 2 (April 5, 2019): 219–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.33182//ml.v16i2.537.
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The objective of the paper is to revisit the role of remittances for labour-supply responses. Previous studies documented conflicting results, while the key methodological concern – remittances’ endogeneity about labour supply – has not been resolved convincingly. We construct behavioural tax and benefit microsimulation model and simulate labour-market responses of singles and couples had remittances not existed in their households. This is a novel methodological approach avoiding the usual trap of utilisation of inappropriate instruments to remittances. Our results suggest that remittances are prevalently associated with lower labour-market activity, especially for women. However, the labour-supply response is found quite feeble and only in single families. Hence, while previous findings are not entirely rebutted, they may have been overstated and are highly dependent on the construct of the receiving household.
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Steiner, V. "Household Taxation, Income Splitting and Labor Supply Incentives - A Microsimulation Study for Germany." CESifo Economic Studies 50, no. 3 (January 1, 2004): 541–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cesifo/50.3.541.
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Immervoll, Herwig, Horácio Levy, José Ricardo Nogueira, Cathal ODonoghue, and Rozane Bezerra de Siqueira. "Simulating Brazils tax-benefit system using Brahms, the Brazilian household microsimulation model." Economia Aplicada 10, no. 2 (June 2006): 203–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1413-80502006000200004.
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Přibyl, Ondřej, and Konstadinos G. Goulias. "Simulation of Daily Activity Patterns Incorporating Interactions within Households." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1926, no. 1 (January 2005): 135–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105192600116.
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Activity-based approaches to travel demand analysis have gained attention in the past few years and rapidly created the need to develop alternative microsimulation models for comparisons. In this paper, one such example simulates an individual's daily activity–travel patterns and incorporates the interactions among members of households. This model uses several tools to simulate the activity patterns, including a new method to extract activity patterns from data and decision trees to take into account personal and household characteristics. The model outputs are the individuals’ daily activity patterns on a detailed temporal scale. These patterns respect individuals’ constraints, which are implicitly embedded in the simulated activity and travel schedules via the intrahousehold interactions. This model was evaluated with data from 1,500 persons in Centre County, Pennsylvania, collected during fall 2002 and spring 2003.
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Militaru, Eva, Madalina Ecaterina Popescu, Amalia Cristescu, and Maria Denisa Vasilescu. "Assessing Minimum Wage Policy Implications upon Income Inequalities. The Case of Romania." Sustainability 11, no. 9 (May 1, 2019): 2542. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11092542.
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Starting from the consideration that excessive income inequalities could hamper sustainable growth, our paper aims to evaluate the impact of the minimum wage policy upon wage and income distributions. Using the European Union Survey on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) database with national representative sample of households, an income distribution analysis was conducted for the case of Romania based on two microsimulation approaches. The first one assumed building a counterfactual income distribution under the hypothesis of no change in minimum wage, while the second one implied a decomposition of the Gini coefficient of income inequalities based on main income determinants, including the minimum wage level and the share of minimum wage earners in the total number of employees. Both approaches pointed to similar findings, indicating a positive effect of the minimum wage on wage inequalities reduction for both genders, although higher for women, as they are more present among lower paid employees. The minimum wage policy can reshape the wage distribution, by enlarging the share of minimum income earners and narrowing the middle. Moreover, the household disposable income becomes less unequal when minimum wage increases, meaning that the income gain spreads over the entire household as most minimum wage earners come from poor households with numerous children.
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Midões, Catarina, and Mateo Seré. "Living with Reduced Income: An Analysis of Household Financial Vulnerability Under COVID-19." Social Indicators Research 161, no. 1 (October 8, 2021): 125–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02811-7.
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AbstractThe COVID-19 crisis has led to substantial reductions in earnings. We propose a new measure of financial vulnerability, computable through survey data, to determine whether households can withstand a certain income shock for a defined period of time. Using data from the ECB Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) we analyse financial vulnerability in seven EU countries. We find that, out of the 243 million individuals considered, 47 million are vulnerable to a three month long income shock (the average length of the first wave COVID-19 lockdown), i.e., they cannot afford food and housing expenses for three months without privately earned income. Differences across countries are stark. Individuals born outside the EU are especially likely to be vulnerable. Being younger, a single parent, and a woman are also statistically significant risk factors. Through a tax-benefit microsimulation exercise, we look into the COVID-19 employment protection benefits, the largest income support measure in the countries considered. Considering as our sample individuals in households where someone receives a salary, we derive household net income when employees are laid-off and awarded the COVID-19 employment protection benefits enacted. Our findings suggest that the employment protection schemes are extremely effective in reducing the number of vulnerable individuals. The relative importance of rent and mortgage suspensions, (likewise, widespread COVID-19 policies), in alleviating vulnerability, is highly country dependent.
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Mustać, Nora, Velibor Mačkić, and Lucija Rogić Dumančić. "No country for old men? Microsimulation effects of activating pensioners on the labour market." Croatian operational research review 13, no. 2 (December 22, 2022): 217–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2022.0016.
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Being a pensioner in Croatia carries certain risks of poverty and inequality compared to the rest of the population. Low level of average pension compared to the minimal wage is just one case in point. On the other hand, the labour market shortage is not negligible and there is also a poor track record when it comes to pension system reforms in the last two decades. This paper investigates a possible path of the future pension system reform aimed at increasing household income levels -- focused on the labour market participation of people aged 65+ who are willing and able to solve labour shortages present in the market. The general aim of the paper is to analyze the effects that the establishment of the Pensioners Service Center might have on market income, mean household income by decile groups, poverty and inequality indices. It fills the research gap by conducting the first microsimulation of the pension system reform in Croatia focusing on market income. The hypothetical reform is simulated using the tax--benefit microsimulation model EUROMOD based on EU--SILC 2019 data for Croatia. Results confirm market income as the main cause of income inequality as well as that the second decile is the target group of the proposed intervention. Pensioners have a clear monetary incentive to increase their labour supply, which in return decreases all poverty and inequality indices.
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Wędrowska, Ewa, and Joanna Muszyńska. "The Impact of Family and Child-Allowances on Income Inequality in Poland. Gini Decomposition by Income Sources." Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 21, no. 1 (June 1, 2021): 144–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/foli-2021-0010.
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Abstract Research background: This paper analyses how different income sources affect the level of inequality in Poland, with focus on the role of family and children related allowances in decreasing income inequalities in 2015–2017. Therefore, the study has focused on the various subgroups of households with children. Purpose: The paper is aimed at examining the extent to which family and children related allowances affect household income inequality and identifying whether they affect inequality in various groups of households in the same way. Methodology: The study was carried out on micro-data gathered by Eurostat. To examine the extent to which different income components affect income inequality, we decompose the Gini coefficient according to the method introduced by Lerman and Yitzhaki. Results: Our study revealed that for most households with children, the inequality-reducing effect due to family and children related allowances increased in 2017 compared to 2015. However, despite the additional child-raising benefit under the “Family 500+” programme, income taxes and social security contributions remained by far the most important factor in reducing household income inequalities in Poland. Novelty: To our knowledge, no study has yet attempted to assess the extent to which family and child-allowances affect income inequality based on real data. The present analysis takes a step towards filling this gap. Unlike other studies based on microsimulation, in this paper we made use of the representative micro-data derived from the EU-SILC study.
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Tchoffo, Rodrigue Nobosse, and Ibrahim Ngouhouo. "Cameroon’s Bilateral Economic Partnership Agreement: A Microsimulation Approach." Applied Economics and Finance 7, no. 2 (February 21, 2020): 67. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v7i2.4730.
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This article studies the impact of the bilateral economic partnership agreement between Cameroon and the European Union on microeconomic indicators including poverty and inequality. The analyses are based on a dynamic microsimulation model on which the scenario of the complete cancellation of customs tariffs on imports of the EU origin products is applied. This is based on a social accounting matrix that we have implemented for 2016 and the ECAM 4 household data survey collected in 2014. The results show that: The Cameroon’s EPA on the macroeconomic aspect leads to an increase of imports against a decrease of exports and production; the increasing of imports is going through a decreasing of market price for domestic market against an increase of imported price. This leads to an elevation of the exchange rate and then discourages the imports of agricultural products; contrary, there is a decreasing of industrial price for imported products on domestic market. This break the local industries efforts since their indirect taxes are increasing. There are also GDP loses of about 0.14% per year. On the microeconomic aspect, it undermines and even exacerbates poverty reduction efforts through indicators of incidence, depth and severity of poverty. This impact increases from 2016 to 2040, period of our simulations, and is more pronounced in rural than in urban areas. For inequality, our results show that the agreement leads to an increase in inequalities ranging from 0.43 to 0.46 during the period 2016-2023. However, the impact is vanished between the period 2033-2040.
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Pendyala, Ram M., Ryuichi Kitamura, Akira Kikuchi, Toshiyuki Yamamoto, and Satoshi Fujii. "Florida Activity Mobility Simulator." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1921, no. 1 (January 2005): 123–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105192100114.
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The development of modeling systems for activity-based travel demand ushers in a new era in transportation demand forecasting and planning. A comprehensive multimodal activity-based system for forecasting travel demand was developed for implementation in Florida and resulted in the Florida Activity Mobility Simulator (FAMOS). Two main modules compose the FAMOS microsimulation model system for modeling activity–travel patterns of individuals: the Household Attributes Generation System and the Prism-Constrained Activity–Travel Simulator. FAMOS was developed and estimated with household activity and travel data collected in southeast Florida in 2000. Results of the model development effort are promising and demonstrate the applicability of activity-based model systems in travel demand forecasting. An overview of the model system, a description of its features and capabilities, and preliminary validation results are provided.
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Mukarati, Julius, Itumeleng Mongale, and Godswill Makombe. "Land redistribution and the South African economy." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 66, No. 1 (January 27, 2020): 46–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/120/2019-agricecon.
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Land redistributive policies can be viewed as effective tools for reducing rural poverty mainly because agriculture continues to be a major source of rural livelihood and a contributor to rural economic growth. For the structural changes and economy-wide impacts, including behavioural changes of rural land distribution, to be assessed and captured through time, a South African Social Accounting Matrix can be used as a database to construct a dynamic computable general equilibrium simulation model to simulate the potential impact on household welfare in South Africa. This study seeks to assess how government redistributive policies may affect household welfare in short- and long-run, focusing on poverty and income distribution in South Africa by applying a dynamic computable general equilibrium microsimulation model. The results showed that rural land distribution increases poor household income through an increase in factor by an average of 0.828. However, for most macroeconomic variables, the impact is negative in the short-run with a gradual increase in the long-run. The results support the claim that rural land distribution coupled with agriculture investment and government support can be effective in improving household welfare.
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Henger, Ralph, and Judith Niehues. "Der Drehtüreffekt zwischen Wohngeld und Grundsicherung." Sozialer Fortschritt 68, no. 10 (October 1, 2019): 791–817. http://dx.doi.org/10.3790/sfo.68.10.791.
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Zusammenfassung Für Haushalte mit niedrigen Einkommen können Veränderungen der Haushaltsstruktur oder eine Einkommenserhöhung durch Arbeitsaufnahme oder -ausweitung einzelner Haushaltsmitglieder einen Systemwechsel von der Grundsicherung zum Wohngeld oder umgekehrt nach sich ziehen. Hinzu kommt das Problem, dass das Wohngeldsystem nicht wie die Regelsätze der Grundsicherung jedes Jahr angepasst wird. Durch die Nichtanpassung wechseln Haushalte aus dem Wohngeld in die Grundsicherung hinein oder in den Nicht-Transferbezug. Werden die Wohngeldleistungen im Rahmen einer Reform erhöht, dann werden viele dieser Haushalte wieder ins Wohngeldsystem zurückgeholt. Dieser Wechsel kann als Drehtüreffekt bezeichnet werden. Mit Hilfe von Mikrosimulationsrechnungen wird gezeigt, wie groß der Drehtüreffekt ist. Zudem werden Wirkungen verschiedener Varianten einer möglichen Dynamisierung des Wohngeldsystems abgeschätzt. Abstract: The Swing-Door Effect between Housing Allowances and the Social Assistance System in Germany For low-income households, changes in the household structure or an increase in their income through taking up or expanding work for individual household members may result in a change from the social assistance system (Grundsicherung) to the housing allowances system (Wohngeld) or vice versa. In addition, there is the problem that the housing benefit system is not adjusted every year like the payments in the subsistence welfare system. The non-adjustment cause households to grow out of housing subsidies and into subsistence welfare system. When housing benefits are increased in a reform, many households come back into the housing benefit system. This change can be called the swing door effect. We show with a microsimulation model the size and relevance of this effect. In addition, the decline in the number of recipients and in expenditure is broken down into various components. Also effects of different variants of a dynamization of the housing benefit system are estimated.
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Halvorsen, Elin, and Axel West Pedersen. "Closing the gender gap in pensions: A microsimulation analysis of the Norwegian NDC pension system." Journal of European Social Policy 29, no. 1 (February 13, 2018): 130–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958928717754296.
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In this article, we use an advanced microsimulation model to study the distributional effects of the reformed Norwegian pension system with a particular focus on gender equality. The reformed Norwegian system is based on the notional defined contribution (NDC)-formula with fixed contribution/accrual rates over the active life-phase and with accumulated pension wealth being transformed into an annuity upon retirement. A number of redistributive components are built into the system: a unisex annuity divisor, a ceiling on annual earnings, generous child credits, a possibility for widows/widowers to inherit pension rights from a deceased spouse, a targeted guarantee pensions with higher benefit rates to single pensioners compared to married/cohabitating pensioners, and finally a tax system that is particularly progressive in its treatment of pensioners and pension income. Taking complete actuarial fairness as the point of departure, we conduct a stepwise analysis to investigate how these different components of the National Insurance pension system impact on the gender gap in pensions and on general (Gini) inequality in the distribution of pension income within a cohort of pensioners. Our analysis concentrates on one birth cohort – individuals born in 1963 – and we study three different outcomes: the distribution of annual pensions early in retirement (at age 70), the distribution of the total sum of pension benefits received over retirement, and the distribution of the average annual pension benefits received over the retirement phase. In addition, we look at three alternative income concepts. These are personal income, equivalised household income, and finally an original income concept developed for this study: personal income adjusted for the economies of scale enjoyed by couple households.
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Boissonneault, Michaël, and Joop de Beer. "Microsimulation of Household and Marital Transitions Leading to Childlessness Among Dutch Women Born Between 1971 and 2000." Demography 59, no. 1 (November 18, 2021): 137–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00703370-9624050.
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Abstract After reaching historically low levels among the women born in the early 1940s, childlessness has been increasing in most Western countries among women born in the 1950s and 1960s. This increase took place as patterns of transition to adulthood have become increasingly late, protracted, and complex. Yet, it is precisely those women who enter a first relationship late, spend more time as single, and experience union instability who more often remain childless. This suggests that levels of childlessness will continue to increase as younger cohorts complete their childbearing histories. In this study, we use microsimulation to project the household and union formation histories of cohorts of Dutch women born between 1971 and 2000. Results suggest that childlessness will actually decrease among cohorts born between 1971 and 1983 and then increase among those born between 1984 and 2000. The decrease occurs as pathways of household and union formation become later, more protracted, and more complex, but also as cohabiting women start to exhibit a higher propensity to become mothers. The increase, on the other hand, occurs as pathways become somewhat less protracted and complex, but also as the propensity of cohabiting women to become mothers returns to previous levels and as age at leaving the parental home strongly rises. Childlessness levels appear to increasingly depend on the childbearing decisions of cohabiting couples and on age at leaving the parental home.
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Alam, MD Jahedul, and Muhammad Ahsanul Habib. "Vulnerability Assessment during Mass Evacuation: Integrated Microsimulation-Based Evacuation Modeling Approach." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2673, no. 10 (May 15, 2019): 225–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198119848409.
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This study develops an integrated microsimulation-based evacuation model that performs a vulnerability assessment of the Halifax Peninsula, Canada during an evacuation. The proposed framework of vulnerability assessment accounts for long-term changes in neighborhood composition in relation to socio-demographic characteristics, residential locations, and vehicle ownership. The results of a large-scale urban systems model and a flood risk model are used to inform the vulnerability assessment. The urban systems model encapsulates long-term household decisions and life stage transitions in measuring social vulnerability. The flood risk model provides information on flood severity and finer network disruptions. In addition, a dynamic traffic assignment-based microsimulation model is developed to assess mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. One of the key contributions of this study is that it utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network modeling approach for vulnerability assessment, while addressing uncertainty and causal relationships between different elements of vulnerability. The results suggest that the Peninsula zones are at a relatively higher risk from a mobility point of view. A sensitivity analysis reveals that clearance time has been found to be the key determinant of the mobility vulnerability during an evacuation. “Presence of female” and “presence of seniors” are found as the two most significant contributors of social vulnerability. Several peripheral zones are at a higher risk because of their proximity to the flood source. The proposed research will help emergency professionals and engineers to develop effective evacuation plans in relation to vulnerable areas.
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Erhardt, Gregory D., David L. Kurth, Erik E. Sabina, and Smith Myung. "Market-Based Framework for Forecasting Parking Cost in Traditional and Microsimulation Modeling Applications." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1921, no. 1 (January 2005): 79–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105192100110.
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Parking cost is an important variable in determining mode choice, yet it receives little attention in most travel forecasting models. This paper presents a framework for modeling parking supply and cost that has three advantages over most parking cost models: a market-based approach is used to equilibrate parking demand with parking supply; actual parking costs paid by groups of travelers rather than average parking costs are estimated for each transportation analysis zone; and estimates are made from longitudinal data. This framework has been applied successfully in a traditional four-step travel model and is being used in practice. It also provides additional opportunities for application in a segmented manner or in concert with a microsimulation modeling approach. Mode choice results based on aggregate and segmented applications of the framework are substantially different. Improved forecasting of parking costs should be an important consideration in any new model development. In recent years, substantial efforts have been focused on household interactions and activity modeling. Although the understanding of travel behavior has improved substantially, the improved techniques still depend on good input data for credible forecasts.
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Sawadogo, Boureima. "Drought Impacts on the Crop Sector and Adaptation Options in Burkina Faso: A Gender-Focused Computable General Equilibrium Analysis." Sustainability 14, no. 23 (November 24, 2022): 15637. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su142315637.
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The crop sector in Burkina Faso has been facing recurrent droughts since 1970. This study analyzes the impacts of droughts and adaptation options such as the use of irrigation capacity development methods, integrated soil management and drought-tolerant crop varieties on the crop sector. Indeed, we focus on the consequences of agricultural droughts on economic growth and employment and on the gender dimension of household poverty. Using a gendered dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model, we conduct simulations of various drought scenarios (mild, moderate and severe). We show that the mild, moderate and intense droughts experienced by Burkina Faso over the past ten years have negatively affected the country’s economic performance and considerably degraded the welfare of its households. The gross domestic product has fallen by 3.0% in the short term and 3.3% in the long term due to intense droughts. Moreover, the number of poor people is growing faster in male-headed households than in female-headed households. Given the large female population in both groups of households, women bear the brunt of droughts. These results also demonstrate how these negative impacts could worsen in the future with the recurrence of intense droughts due to the threat of global climate change. We find that Burkina Faso has room to reduce the negative impacts by adopting drought-tolerant crop varieties, integrated soil management approaches or expanding their irrigation capacity.
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Richiardi, Matteo, and Ambra Poggi. "Imputing Individual Effects in Dynamic Microsimulation Models An application to household formation and labour market participation in Italy." International Journal of Microsimulation 7, no. 2 (2013): 3–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00099.
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Myck, Michał, and Mateusz Najsztub. "Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey." International Journal of Microsimulation 8, no. 1 (2014): 33–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00111.
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Bezeredi, Slavko. "Isplativost rada u Hrvatskoj i Sloveniji: analiza pomoću mikrosimulacijskog modela." Revija za socijalnu politiku 28, no. 2 (July 15, 2021): 163–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3935/rsp.v28i2.1787.
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WORK INCENTIVES IN CROATIA AND SLOVENIA: ANALYSIS USING MICROSIMULATION MODELS The paper analyzes the impact of the tax-benefit system on work incentives in Croatia and Slovenia. Unemployed and inactive persons and their hypothetical transitions to employment are considered. As the main indicator of work incentives, the participation tax rate (PTR) is estimated, as it represents a portion of additional income that is lost because taxes increase and benefits decrease in transition of a person from non-employment into employment. Unlike previous research, which was made for both countries on hypothetical data, in this paper for the first time the calculations and analysis of PTR are based on survey data, which for both countries gives a realistic picture of the situation in the field of work incentives. The analysis is carried out on data and the tax-benefit system for 2017, and the main tool used is EUROMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the EU countries. The results show that the average PTR in Croatia is of a moderate size of 31.3%, while in Slovenia it is 11.3 percentage points higher. People with higher number of dependent children and those with lower level of market income obtained by other household members are more likely to have a high PTR in both countries, and in Croatia people with only primary education will also have it. Key words: participation tax rate, work incentives, EUROMOD, Croatia, Slovenia
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Kamal, Zarul Khaliff, Noriszura Ismail, and Ros Idayuwati Alaudin. "Application of Cluster Analysis in Building Retirement Wealth Adequacy Profile: A Case Study in Malaysia." Journal of Computational and Theoretical Nanoscience 17, no. 2 (February 1, 2020): 689–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1166/jctn.2020.8706.
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This study aims to examine retirement wealth adequacy based on the underlying structure of households’ attributes from Household Expenses and Income Survey 2014 (HEIS14) data. In specific, the two-step cluster analysis is carried out to build the profiles that will be used to compute retirement wealth adequacy. In general, the data that contains both numerical and categorical variables do not suit well for pure hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis. To counter this issue, the twostep cluster analysis employs log-likelihood function to measure the distance between two clusters, where the numerical variables are assumed to follow a normal distribution, meanwhile categorical variables are assumed to follow the multinomial distribution. We have used Schwarz’s Bayesian Criterion (BIC) and Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) to determine the number of clusters to be formed. In addition, we employed a Silhouette measure of cohesion and separation to examine the overall goodness-of-fit. The analysis successfully generated a solution of three clusters. The first cluster represents households with the majority of SPM holders, receiving an average gross monthly salary of RM 5058.73 and working in the private sector. The second cluster represents households with the majority of diploma holder/professional certificate, receiving an average gross monthly salary of RM 10154.06 and most of them (92%) working in the private sector. The third cluster represents households who work in the public sector with an average gross monthly salary of RM 7185.74. From the microsimulation process, the results show that 51% of households in Cluster 1 have adequate retirement wealth, while only 13% of households in Cluster 3 have adequate retirement wealth.
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Tobias, Robert, and Hans-Joachim Mosler. "Optimizing Campaigns for Changing Routine Behaviors by Using an Empirically Calibrated Microsimulation Model." Social Science Computer Review 35, no. 2 (August 3, 2016): 184–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0894439315620866.
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We used the model of prospective memory and habit development to derive recommendations for designing behavior-change campaigns that used prompts or household visits as reminders. We followed an exemplary procedure comprising the calibration of the model, based on 48 time series gathered during a campaign promoting recycling habits and a systematic exploration of the solution space. For the parameter estimation, an algorithm was developed that worked at two levels. A higher level algorithm optimized parameters that were set to equal values for all agents, whereas a lower level algorithm estimated the values of agent-specific parameters for each agent separately, using the parameter values of the higher level algorithm for the other parameters. This procedure resulted in an excellent fit of the model to the data ( R2 = 75%) For the systematic exploration, an indicator expressing campaign effects in one value was defined and the following findings could be derived. Activities should focus on the first week of a campaign. Follow-up visits or refreshing of prompts should be done within 4 days after the initial visit. Later activities, such as additional visits or refreshing of prompts, bring little further effects. Investing heavily in the design of the prompts for improving their salience is only worthwhile in populations with a low commitment to perform the behavior. Furthermore, covering more than 10% of the places where the target behavior should be performed with prompts mostly does not lead to additional effects to make it worthwhile.
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Kurta, Amela, and Nermin Oruc. "The effect of increasing the minimum wage on poverty and inequality in Bosnia and Herzegovina." Ekonomski anali 65, no. 226 (2020): 121–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/eka2026121k.
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The minimum wage, as a labour market policy with distributive impact, is widely debated in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH). This paper estimates the effect of increasing the minimum wage on poverty and income inequality in BiH, providing the first empirical evidence on the minimum wage in the country. Using data from the Household Budget Survey (HBS) for 2015, the effects of four changes (two per entity) in the minimum wage were simulated using the microsimulation model BiHMOD. First, the effect of the latest changes implemented in the previous period was calculated using the previous minimum wage level as the baseline. Second, the effect of recently proposed changes was simulated using the current level as the baseline. The findings suggest that increasing the minimum wage in BiH has a significant positive effect on poverty reduction, but a limited effect on the level of income inequality. The estimated effects were also calculated for different types of households. The results suggest that a single policy may have unexpected effects if other policies are not taken into account and harmonized accordingly. The findings provide empirical evidence for decision-makers and future policy debate, which is generally missing for this and similar policy issues in BiH.
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Roorda, Matthew J., Abolfazl Mohammadian, and Eric J. Miller. "Toronto Area Car Ownership Study: A Retrospective Interview and Its Applications." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1719, no. 1 (January 2000): 69–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1719-09.
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Recent work in the area of comprehensive transportation modeling systems in a microsimulation framework, more specifically auto ownership modeling, has recognized the need for increased experimentation with dynamic models. Implicitly, dynamic models require longitudinal data. A Toronto area car ownership study was conducted to design and administer a longitudinal survey to fulfill the data requirements for such a dynamic model, to validate the survey results, and to conduct preliminary analysis on those results. An in-depth retrospective telephone survey was conducted with the help of a computer aid in Toronto, Canada. Simple univariate analyses were conducted on the data to determine the relationship between characteristics of the household and the occurrence of vehicle transactions, the choice of vehicle type, the duration a vehicle is held, and the degree of consumer loyalty to different types of vehicles.
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Gao, Qin, Sui Yang, Yalu Zhang, and Shi Li. "The Divided Chinese Welfare System: Do Health and Education Change the Picture?" Social Policy and Society 17, no. 2 (April 18, 2017): 227–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1474746417000100.
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Using the China Household Income Project 2007 data and imputing health and education benefits through microsimulation, this article provides evidence on how the inclusion of health and education benefits might change the estimated size, structure and redistributive effects of the Chinese social welfare system. We find that the inequalities in social welfare systems across the urban–rural–migrant populations persisted, reinforcing the multidimensional inequalities in health and education well documented in the literature. Imputed health benefits were larger and played a greater redistributive role in urban areas than for their rural and migrant peers. Imputed education benefits, on the other hand, played a more equalising role in rural and migrant populations as compared to the urban population. These results highlight the importance for China to use health and education benefits effectively to mitigate such multidimensional inequalities and enhance the life opportunities of disadvantaged citizens, especially children.
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Jędrzejczak, Alina, and Jan Kubacki. "Impact of expenditure on social assistance on household income at the regional level in Poland." Wiadomości Statystyczne. The Polish Statistician 66, no. 1 (January 29, 2021): 9–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.6745.
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The main aim of the paper is a statistical analysis of changes in household income distribution at the regional level in Poland taking into account the impact of government spending on social assistance. Various linear models (incorporating relations for spline functions) and the vector autoregression models (VAR) were used in the research. The linear models formulated for voivodships (NUTS 2) contained a dichotomous variable with values dependent on the existence of social programmes introduced by the Polish government in 2016. An independent variable representing expenditure per capita on social assistance specified for the national level was also used. The results for these models were compared with the findings of both microsimulation studies obtained on the basis of the Household Budget Surveys (HBS) and the total assessment of the social programmes, and they indicate a significant influence of social assistance expenditure on the amounts of available income. The calculations were conducted using data from the Statistics Poland databases: Local Data Bank (and in particular, data from the Polish HBS for the years 2000–2018) and from the Macroeconomic Data Bank, and from the annual reports on the implementation of the state budget. They were performed by means of the R-project environment and R-commander overlay, using the lm function as well as the vars module for the R-project environment. The study also involved using the Gretl package.
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Leventi, Chrysa, Holly Sutherland, and Iva Valentinova Tasseva. "Improving poverty reduction in Europe: What works best where?" Journal of European Social Policy 29, no. 1 (October 8, 2018): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958928718792130.
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This article examines how income poverty is affected by changes to the scale of tax-benefit policies and which are the most cost-effective policies in reducing poverty or limiting its increase in seven diverse EU countries. We do that by measuring the implications of increasing/reducing the scale of each policy instrument, using microsimulation methods while holding constant the policy design and national context. We consider commonly applied policy instruments with a direct effect on household income: child benefits, social assistance, income tax lower thresholds and a benchmark case of rescaling the whole tax-benefit system. We find that the assessment of the most cost-effective instrument may depend on the measure of poverty used and the direction and scale of the change. Nevertheless, our results indicate that the options that reduce poverty most cost-effectively in most countries are increasing child benefits and social assistance, while reducing the former is a particularly poverty-increasing way of making budgetary cuts.
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Anderson, B., D. Manouseli, and M. Nagarajan. "Estimating scenarios for domestic water demand under drought conditions in England and Wales." Water Supply 18, no. 6 (February 13, 2018): 2100–2107. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2018.035.
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Abstract This paper presents preliminary results from the development of the IMPETUS model, a domestic water demand microsimulation model which was developed to estimate the results of a range of scenarios of domestic demand under drought conditions. The model is intended to enable water resource management practitioners to assess the likely impact of potential interventions in particular catchment areas. It has been designed to be driven by seasonal catchment level forecasts of potential hydrological droughts based on innovative climate and groundwater models. The current version of the model is driven by reconstructed historical drought data for the Colne catchment in the east of England from 1995 to 2014. This provides a framework of five drought phases (Normal, Developing, Drought, Severe Drought and Recovering) which are mapped to policy driven interventions such as increased provision of water efficiency technologies and temporary water-use bans. The model uses UK Census 2011 data to develop a synthetic household population that matches the socio-demographics of the catchment and it microsimulates (at the household level) the consequences of water efficiency interventions retrospectively (1995–2014). Demand estimates for reconstructed drought histories demonstrate that the model is able to adequately estimate end-use water consumption. Also, the potential value of the model in supporting cost-benefit analysis of specific interventions is illustrated. We conclude by discussing future directions for the work.