Academic literature on the topic 'Higher education policy'

This article examines recent ongoing churning around independent regulatory authorities in higher education in India in the context of the changing relationship between polity and policy in the emergent neoliberal state discourse. The disconnect between polity and policy needs to be examined concerning people’s power in liberal democratic theory. People’s power and higher education are intertwined since the former has legitimate claim over the latter. Hence, this article, at the outset, examines the anatomy of regulation vis-à-vis people’s power. Thereafter, regulation and knowledge are examined congruently. Regulation and higher education in India are explained by way of clarifying the constitutional provisions and analysing emerging policy proposals regarding centralisation, commercialisation and regulations. This article highlights the importance of higher education for transformation. In this regard, ten challenges are outlined in the end.

Thesis (MEd)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Through policy document analyses and in-depth semi-structured interviews, this thesis examines the potential of higher education policy frameworks to engender quality university education in Malawian universities. Pertinent to the fast-growing higher education sector in Malawi is the connection between higher education policy frameworks and quality delivery of university education. Education policy frameworks in Malawi are mainly a response to the government’s broad policy of poverty alleviation. Thus this thesis argues that quality university education ought to contribute to poverty alleviation especially by assisting the country to achieve its Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and to implement the initiatives of the New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). To engender quality university education that could help to alleviate poverty in Malawi, this thesis through Habermasian critical inquiry proposes that quality ought to be the corollary of defensible higher education policy frameworks, policy documents need to delineate quality parameters, access to university education needs to be increased and, inevitably, discursive or deliberative higher education policy making ought to be given primacy.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Aan die hand van beleidsdokumentontleding en diepgaande, semigestruktureerde onderhoude, ondersoek hierdie tesis die potensiaal van hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke om gehalte universiteitsonderrig in Malawiese universiteite teweeg te bring. Van besondere belang vir die snelgroeiende hoëronderwyssektor in Malawi is die verband tussen hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke en die lewering van gehalte universiteitsonderrig. Malawiese onderwysbeleidsraamwerke is hoofsaaklik 'n reaksie op die regering se omvattende armoedeverligtingsbeleid. Daarom voer hierdie tesis aan dat gehalte universiteitsonderrig tot armoedeverligting behoort by te dra, veral deur die land te help om sy millenniumontwikkelingsdoelwitte (MOD’s) te bereik en die inisiatiewe van die Nuwe Vennootskap vir Afrika-ontwikkeling (NEPAD) in werking te stel. Ten einde gehalte universiteitsonderrig teweeg te bring wat armoede in Malawi kan help verlig, doen hierdie tesis deur Habermasiese kritiese ondersoek aan die hand dat gehalte die uitvloeisel van verdedigbare hoëronderwysbeleidsraamwerke moet wees, dat beleidsdokumente gehaltegrense moet neerlê, dat toegang tot universiteitsonderrig verbeter moet word, en dat beredeneerde of oorwoë hoëronderwysbeleidbepaling onafwendbaar voorrang behoort te geniet.

The argument made by the Leitch report and subsequent government policy documents is that an improved supply of skills is central to national economic progress in the face of increasing competition amongst nation states for business investment. Over the period 2005-9 higher education institutions in England were encouraged by government departments and HEFCE to engage with an emerging higher skills policy, and commit to building their capacity to develop and deliver workforce development provision in collaboration with employers and Sector Skills Councils. This thesis explores the implementation of this policy with the aim of developing an analytical framework that can be used to explain processes of implementation in this specific policy environment, at the interface of ‘skills’ and ‘higher education’. The approach to implementation recognises the importance of interpreting the structural character of the policy environment, the influence of the prevailing norms of the higher education sector, and the manner in which processes at the ‘street level’ interpret and adapt policy to institutional context. The analytical process takes account of the insights of sociological institutionalism, Matland’s ambiguity-conflict model and the focus on belief and coalition formation in the Advocacy Coalition Framework, and makes use of a range of documentary and interview material. The approach is deliberately sceptical about the possibility of the development of an overarching implementation model, and instead focuses on the characterisation of key factors that are likely to influence the implementation process and outcomes in this specific policy environment. To that end, the analysis produced can find use as an insight into the process of policy implementation in higher education in the U.K., and provide an indication of how similar policies may be re(formed) in future contexts.

This thesis examines the implementation of the policy of internationalising higher education in Thailand during a period marked by global and national liberalisation and by transition and reform. The main research question is: to what extent has the Thai state's policy of internationalising higher education been implemented? The thesis reviews two main bodies of literature to answer this question, examining them in the Thai context. First, studies of the internationalisation of higher education are reviewed in order to provide the background to current debates and to frame a set of ideal goals for the internationalisation of higher education in Thailand. Second, studies on the higher education system and the policy implementation process are used to investigate the Thai higher education system's policy implementation process. The thesis centres on two main case studies reflecting the two primary functions of universities: teaching and research. The first study relates to the teaching of commercial and business administration courses in international programmes. The second study relates specifically to internationalised scientific research. The thesis argues that Thai higher education is in a dilemma: it must implement successful internationalisation and reform its structure and social values, particularly in order to accommodate new ideas driven by market forces. Yet, it is prevented because the bureaucratic structure and values of the 'state authority' and the public universities prevail, while the market pressurises each institution and individual to pursue their self-interests. As a result, qualitative internationalisation is difficult to put into practice. The original contribution of this thesis is not only the empirical data gathered during intensive fieldwork, but also an attempt to analyse the internationalisation of Thai higher education by examining the country's higher education system and its policy implementation process. Previous studies on the internationalisation of higher education have mostly focused on the developed world, and those focusing on developing countries have not particularly considered the problems related to national higher education systems and policy implementation processes. This study not only considers the duties and functions of particular universities; it also places the internationalisation of the Thai higher education system in its macro-political and socio-economic context, and thus is able to explore and explain the fundamental problems affecting the policy implementation process.

Public higher education is a large enterprise in the United States. Total state expenditures for higher education totaled nearly $152 billion dollars in FY2008, accounting for over ten percent of total state expenditures and representing the single largest category of discretionary spending in most states (NASBO, 2009). The last three decades have witnessed the introduction of hundreds of pieces of legislation across states which make structural changes to state higher education governance systems (Marcus, 1997; McLendon, Deaton, and Hearn, 2007). Despite the ubiquity of state higher education governance change much remains unknown, both in terms of why states choose to enact reforms as well as the implications of state governance arrangements for institutional performance. This dissertation attempts to fill these critical gaps in knowledge. First, it surveys the historical development of state higher education governance structures and reviews the limited empirical literature regarding the antecedents and impacts of various state approaches to higher education management. Drawing on this literature, the first empirical chapter, utilizing hazard modeling, seeks to uncover the factors associated with state enactment of legislation decentralizing higher education governance. It finds that state fiscal characteristics emerge as strong predictors of decentralization. Specifically, states with greater tax efforts are much less likely to decentralize, while states experiencing real dollar declines in tax revenues are much more likely to decentralize, all else constant. The second empirical chapter explores the implications of state management of public higher education for institutional degree completion rates. Utilizing a unique, institutional-level dataset comprising 518 public, four-year institutions of higher education in the United States, it finds that, controlling for relevant institutional-level characteristics such as institutional selectivity, mission, and per-FTE student expenditures, inter-institutional competition emerges as a powerful predictor of student degree completion. Institutions operating in more competitive environments—defined as states with less concentrated undergraduate enrollments and states with weaker higher education governance structures—graduate students at higher rates than institutions operating in less competitive environments. The dissertation concludes by discussing the implications for these empirical findings for policy makers seeking to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public higher education.

In the higher education environment today, lack of agreement about background checks between campus community members, fueled by unresolved tensions between security and privacy, has led many universities to adopt a patchwork of fragmented background check policies. Many of these policies have been created and accepted without careful consideration of the wide array of risks and complexities involved with background checks. This policy analysis examined the experiences and history behind Georgia Institute of Technology’s adoption of background check policy. This was achieved through interviewing relevant constituents and analyzing of all available/related official policy documents associated with Georgia Tech’s Pre-employment Background Check Policy and Program. This dissertation presents a chronological account of the events and influences associated with Georgia Tech’s adoption and revision of background check policy. Results of this study offer valuable insights and recommendations for further study in order to assist higher education policy makers and HR professionals at other universities in making more informed decisions regarding the challenges involved with background check, and similar, policy. Some of these insights include an awareness of societal tensions that exist between privacy and security policy; the importance of understanding how national, local, and organizational level triggering events have shaped and contributed to higher education background check policy that is based on a general concern for security; and my recommendation for further study into background check policy as it will relate to the higher matriculation process.

Higher education policy, as a part of broader public policy, must be built on the foundations of government strategic planning. Modern understanding of the role of higher education emphasizes growing importance of well-educated graduates for the stability of national economies. In 2004 Poland joined European Union and tried to adjust higher education policy to the demands of knowledge-based economy of the UE. The examination of government strategic documents and regulations reflects the challenge defining and managing higher education policy. Polish ministry responsible for higher education still cannot define the strategic goals and thus the ministry questions the possibility of implementing a coherent policy.

Australia’s tertiary education and training sector consists of Higher Education, predominantly funded and controlled by the Federal Government, and Vocational Education and Training (VET) where both the Federal and State Governments have policy and funding responsibilities. While there has been increasing funding and stable policy in Higher Education over the past decade there has been significant change in the Australian VET sector in policy and reduced funding at the Federal and State levels. TAFE Queensland, the public VET provider in the state of Queensland, has undergone a huge transformation of its own over this period of extensive policy change. As a result of policy and organisational changes TAFE Queensland has had to seek alternatives to ensure that students who choose to study at this public provider are able to access higher education courses. This paper outlines various policy change impacts over the past decade and TAFE Queensland’s innovative approach to ensuring that quality applied degrees are available to interested students who prefer to study with this major public vocational education provider.

This paper analyzes the postgraduate institutional policy in the Autonomous University of Baja California (UABC) implemented since 2003. Aligning the educational model of the UABC with the parameters of the National Program of Postgraduate Quality (PNPC in spanish), the results-based budget and the matrix of indicators of the logical margin and articulating them to the maximum qualifications of national recognition granted to the full time professors at higher education institutions, its results are explained by the continuity of the policy and organizational capacity of the institutional management, which has resulted in the improvement of the quality and coverage in the postgraduate level, achieving from 2013 that 100% of its programs are recognized for their quality and the first institution of the 34 state public universities existing in the country to reach it sustainably. This policy implemented by the UABC also should be reflected in the satisfaction of graduates and employers, in the contribution in the generation of knowledge through journals high impact factor, the degree of linkage with the productive sector measured through collaboration agreements and management of resources for public-private-social projects, which will be topics for future research.

This paper explores higher education actors involved in the recruitment of internationalstudents and their perceptions of their home country’s government policy on their practice. It examines case study institutions from three countries Canada, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom. This study shows higher education institutions do not exist in a vacuum and regardless of their location, government policy shapes perceptions for international student recruiters who believe that government policies contribute or hinder their practice. All of the participants, regardless of location, show a high level of awareness of government policy that greatly shapes their strategies. More specifically, recruiters find tensions arising from these policies with government shaping recruitment priorities and restricting or instigating competitive responses, while their institutions do not challenge government policy (enough). The findings suggest that government policies establish the “playing field” for recruiters as they attempt to navigate an increasingly competitive environment but at the same time, these perceptions are highly localized and need to be understood in their individual settings.Keywords:internationalization; government policies; recruiters; students

There are three different types of activities performed in higher education institutions that, taken together, form the components of a trilemma in higher education. These include traditional academic activities (research and teaching), along with those that aim to transfer knowledge beyond academic research (policy-/industry-oriented activities). I argue that there are potential synergies across these three components that can be exploited to resolve this trilemma. This is illustrated in an augmented research value chain that introduces teaching and policy-/industry-oriented activities as phases that complement the research process. The interaction of the different phases in the research process contributes to the generation of new knowledge, increasing the value-added of the organization. This proposal relies on an application in an organizational unit specializing in international trade within an Australian university. Australia provides an interesting case study because research-intensive Australian universities are no longer evaluated purely in terms of their research quality, but also in terms of their transfer of knowledge and contributions beyond academic research. In this context, I conceptualize how to resolve the trilemma, and increase the feasibility of bridging the gap between academic and policy-/industry-oriented activities in higher education institutions.

Elaboration and implementation of investment programs for the development of modern universities, cooperation with the business sector, public investment aimed at modernization of the educational environment, implementation of grants, etc. can now be considered as structural components of investment activities of higher education institutions in the context of strategic planning. Therefore, the process of active reform of the educational sector of Ukraine and its integration into the European educational space require a review of approaches, methods and forms of management of education and educational institutions, in particular on investment policy.

This publication is the third product of the Erasmus + Project entitled Voices of Immigrant Women (Project Number: 2020-1-ES01-KA203-082364). This product is based on a set of policy recommendations that provides practical guidance on intervention proposals to those with political responsibilities in governance on migration management and policies for integration and social inclusion, as well as to policy makers in the governance of training in Higher Education (University) at all levels. This is intended to promote the development of practical strategies that allow overcoming the obstacles encountered by migrant women during the integration process, favoring the construction of institutions, administrations and, ultimately, more inclusive societies. The content presented in this book proposes recommendations and intervention proposals oriented to practice to: - Improve Higher Education study plans by promoting the training of students as future active protagonists who are aware of social interventions. This will promote equity, diversity and the integration of migrant women. - Strengthen cooperation and creation of networks between academic organizations, the third sector and public administrations that are responsible for promoting the integration and inclusion of migrant women. - Promote dialogue and the exchange of knowledge to, firstly, raise awareness of human mobility and gender in Europe and, secondly, promote the participation and social, labor and civic integration of the migrant population. All this is developed through 4 areas in which this book is articulated. The first area entitled "Migrant women needs and successful integration interventions"; the second area entitled "Promoting University students awareness and civic and social responsibility towards migrant women integration"; the third area entitled "Cooperation between Higher Education institutions and third sector"; the fourth and last area, entitled "Inclusive Higher Education".

We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing us to estimate its causal impact on the market. Four years after the start of the program, test scores were 0.2 sd higher in public schools. We find evidence of an education multiplier: test scores in private schools were also 0.2 sd higher in treated markets. Consistent with standard models of product differentiation, the education multiplier is greater for those private schools that faced a greater threat to their market power. Accounting for private sector responses increases the program’s cost effectiveness by 85 percent and affects how a policymaker would target spending. Given that markets with several public and private schools are now pervasive in low- and middle-income countries, prudent policy requires us to account for private sector responses to public policy, both in their design and in their evaluation.

The article is devoted to the peculiarities of the practical use of cloud services for the organization of qualitative professional training of future specialists. It is established that in order to implement state policy, there is an essential need for using various ICT, in particular cloud services, which are not only economically acceptable in the new educational environment, but also a powerful tools of obtaining new knowledge, skills and abilities. The advantages and disadvantages of using cloud services in the educational process of higher education are substantiated; the examples discuss the methods of using cloud services in the process of studying fundamental disciplines. The object of the study is the professional training of students in higher education institutions. The subject of research is the process of organizing professional training of future specialists with the use of cloud services. To achieve the set goals, a set of general scientific (analysis, synthesis, comparison) and specific scientific (bibliographic, problem-based) was used. Observation and conversation manipulation allowed to highlight the advantages and disadvantages of using cloud services and draw conclusions from the problem under investigation. The foreign experience of using cloud services has been researched and the features of the application of traditional and distance technology training abroad have been determined. It describes the use of the blog as a media-educational technology during the advent of pedagogical practice. The methods of using cloud-based services on the example of creation of a distance course “Linear algebra and analytic geometry” are considered. The prospects of research, which consist in getting acquainted with cloud technologies of the humanitarian profile future specialists at the second higher education, are determined. It has been established that the practical application of cloud technologies in the educational process will promote more qualitative and progressive learning; the formation of a close interaction between the teacher and student; development of professional skills and abilities of independent work.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.