Academic literature on the topic 'Health surveys Victoria Statistics'

BackgroundOccupational contact dermatitis is one of the most common occupational diseases, but there is a lack of reliable information on incidence. Despite acknowledged limitations, workers’ compensation statistics may provide insights into contact dermatitis patterns.ObjectiveThe objective of the study was to characterise historical patterns of workers’ compensation claims for occupational contact dermatitis.MethodsThis was a retrospective analysis of workers’ compensation claims for occupational contact dermatitis from 1996–2015 (n=3,348) accepted by WorkSafe Victoria in Victoria, Australia. Accepted claims per 1 00 000 person-years stratified by sex, age and industry were calculated. Denominators for the population at risk were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics using Victorian Labour Force Survey data.ResultsThe compensation claims rate of occupational contact dermatitis was 6.72 per 1 00 000 person-years for the overall twenty-year period. There was a significant reduction in claims from 11.84 in 1996 to 1.78 in 2015. Males had a higher overall claims rate of 7.97 compared to the rate for females of 5.18. Over the twenty-year period the rate for males decreased from 14.46 to 1.7 compared to a reduction from 8.4 to 1.8 for females. This decrease was still observed when the data were standardised for underlying changes in the age structure of the population. There was an overall decline across all high-risk occupational groupsConclusionsThere was a fivefold decrease in accepted claims for occupational contact dermatitis for the twenty-year period from January 1996 to December 2015 for the state of Victoria in Australia. These results need to be regarded with caution as the declining rate of accepted occupational contact dermatitis claims may indicate changes in workplace dermal exposures or improvements in workplace skin protection practices over time, or they may be driven by underlying changes to the workers’ compensation system or changes to claims behaviour amongst workers.

The Maternal and Child Health (MCH) service in Victoria comprises a universal service, an enhanced program providing additional support for vulnerable families (EMCH) and a 24-h MCH telephone line. There is anecdotal evidence of variation in EMCH programs between Local Government Areas, and this study aims to explore the variation in EMCH programs to inform future EMCH policy and practice. An online survey was sent to MCH coordinators in Victoria in December 2016 (n = 79), with a response rate of 70% (55/79). Quantitative data have been analysed using descriptive statistics, with open-ended questions examined using content analysis. The data confirms that EMCH programs vary significantly across the state. Differences include a variation in referral and intake criteria, different models of service and modes of delivery, differences in EMCH nurse working conditions, issues with data collection and a lack of systematic clinical tools. Variation in the EMCH program is greatest between urban and rural services and between advantaged and disadvantaged urban councils. Lack of consistent service delivery and data collection impairs program evaluation, including outcome measurement and evidence of program effectiveness.

Objectives. To compare the knowledge of Australian dietary recommendations to the dietary practices of first-year medical students. Design. Over a period of four years, anonymous online surveys were completed by medical students attending a first-year nutrition lecture. Background. There is little information on the nutritional knowledge and dietary practices of medical students. Setting. First-year postgraduate university medical students, Geelong, Victoria, Australia. Participants. Between the years 2012 and 2016, 32%–61% of first-year students completed the survey. Phenomenon of Interest. Student’s knowledge of dietary guidelines and related practices. Analysis. The frequency of response was assessed across the different year cohorts using descriptive statistics. Results. Between 59% and 93% of first-year students correctly identified the recommended daily servings for fruit, and between 61% and 84% knew the vegetable recommendations. In contrast only 40%–46% met the guidelines for fruit and 12%–19% met the guidelines for vegetables. Conclusions and Implications. Discrepancies between students’ nutrition knowledge and behavior can provide learning opportunities. With low rates of fruit and vegetable consumption in medical students, increased awareness of links between nutrition and health, together with encouragement to make behavioral changes, may increase the skills of graduates to support patients in improving dietary intake.

Objective HealthPathways (HPW) is an international web-based information portal that provides health practitioners with guidelines and referral pathways to specialists and services. The present study explored usage of HPW by general practitioners (GPs) in the Barwon region, south-west Victoria, and any benefits and barriers to its use. Methods Approximately 421 GPs provide services in 86 clinics across the Barwon region, south-west Victoria and Barwon Health is the public health service providing acute, subacute, residential aged care and community health services to approximately 350000 people. The present study was a mixed-methods analysis of all GPs in the region, who were invited to complete a survey in two waves (2014 and 2016) and participate in focus groups. Data were survey/questionnaire (fixed response and free text options, analysed with descriptive statistics and content analysis), and focus groups (interview and facilitated group discussion, analysed using the principles of thematic analysis). Results Most GPs surveyed used HPW and usage increased over time from 2014 to 2016 (67% vs 77% respectively). Junior GPs used HPW more often than the more experienced practitioners. GPs reported that HPW was easy to access and navigate, improved their knowledge of local services, improved their confidence, changed their clinical management and saved them time. Main barriers to use of HPW were: GPs did not think to look at HPW, or simply did not know about it. Conclusions HPW has the potential to improve patient management and health outcomes, and use of HPW is increasing over time. What is known about the topic? Initiatives such as HPW are viewed positively by clinicians and have the potential to address challenges at the primary–secondary care interface, specifically, referral to secondary specialists. What does this paper add? Proof of concept that the ongoing availability of localised HPW for common clinical conditions improves GP usage of HPW and has increased access to HPW as the first source of clinical information. Benefits and barriers to use have been identified. What are the implications for practitioners? HPW improves knowledge of local services and provides GPs with easy access to referral pathways.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply the concept of power imbalance to explain workplace and demographic characteristics associated with bullying by different perpetrators in the healthcare sector. Design/methodology/approach All 69,927 members of the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation (Victoria) were invited to participate in an online survey in 2014; 4,891 responses were received (7 per cent response rate). Participants were asked about their exposure to workplace bullying (WPB) by different perpetrators. The questionnaire addressed demographic characteristics and perceptions of workplace characteristics (workplace type, leading indicators of occupational health and safety (OHS), prioritisation of OHS, supervisor support for safety and bureaucracy). Analysis involved descriptive statistics and regression analyses. Findings The study found that the exposure of nurses and health workers to bullying is relatively high (with 42 per cent of respondents experiencing WPB in the past 12 months) and there are multiple perpetrators of bullying. The research revealed several demographic predictors associated with the different types of perpetrators. Downward and horizontal bullying were the most prevalent forms. Workplace characteristics were more important predictors of bullying by different perpetrators than were demographic characteristics. Research limitations/implications There are limitations to the study due to a low response rate and the cross-sectional survey. Practical implications Practical implications of this study emphasise the importance of focussed human resource strategies to prevent bullying. Originality/value The key contribution of this research is to draw from theoretical explanations of power to inform understanding of the differences between perpetrators of bullying. The study highlights the workplace characteristics that influence bullying.

This thesis examines the implications of using different correlation input matrices and estimation techniques in confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) when analyzing ordinal, nonnormal data derived from responses of recently arrived Australian immigrants to the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). The GHQ-12 is one of the most widely used instruments for determining wellbeing in populations. The response format of the GHQ-12 comprises four ordinal categories and underlying distributions of data obtained invariably do not approximate univariate or multivariate normality. Owing to these data properties, consideration should be given to the application of appropriate statistical approaches for analyzing this type of data sets. This study also investigates the extent to which the GHQ-12 is invariant across gender and cultural groups. A three-dimensional measurement model for the GHQ-12 was initially examined for four groups of Australian immigrants who originated from Hong Kong (n = 201), Mainland China (n =213), former Yugoslavia (n = 259), and the United Kingdom (n = 428). A series of CFAs using either a Pearson�s product-moment or a polychoric correlation input matrix and employing either maximum likelihood (ML), weighted least squares (WLS) or diagonally weighted least squares (DWLS) estimation methods was conducted on the data. A comparison of the parameter estimates and goodness-of-fit statistics obtained for the different analyses provided support for using polychoric correlation input matrices and DWLS estimation in CFAs when analyzing ordinal, nonnormal data with smaller sample sizes. Invariance tests across gender and cultural groups were conducted on a second-order measurement model for the GHQ-12, culminating in significant differences between the two Asian and two European cohorts. The GHQ-12 was invariant for immigrants from Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as for males and females from the United Kingdom. Partial invariance of the GHQ-12 was found for immigrants from Asia, the United Kingdom, and former Yugoslavia and for Asian males and females. Findings from the present study suggest that estimating models based on nonnormal ordinal responses using polychoric correlations with DWLS is more likely to result in a solution with higher parameter estimates and better indices of fit than other approaches. Further research should be conducted on real and simulated data to investigate the efficacy of WLS and DWLS estimation in CFAs when using polychoric correlations as the input data for varying categorical response formats, with a range of model and sample sizes.

In der Behandlung der zervikalen Dystonie wird die Therapie mit Botulinumtoxin (BTX) erfolgreich angewendet. Neben dieser Therapie werden von Patienten oft alternative Therapien (CAM [Complementary and Alternative Medicine]) angesprochen und ausprobiert. Diese Studie geht der Frage nach, wie häufig CAM-Therapien genutzt werden, wie deren Wirkung bewertet wird und ob es Prädiktoren für die Therapiewahl gibt. Zur Datenerhebung wurden 265 Fragebögen von zwei Patientengruppen ausgewertet. Gruppe 1 (n=101) bestand aus Patienten der Botulinumtoxinsprechstunde des Universitätsklinikums Leipzig und der Paracelsus Klinik Zwickau. Gruppe 2 (n=165) wurde aus Mitgliedern des Selbsthilfeverbandes Bundesverband-Torticollis e.V. rekrutiert. Bei 86% der Patienten wurde die Therapie mit BTX angewendet. Von den Therapiemöglichkeiten der CAM wurden am häufigsten physikalische Therapien (Massagen n=171) genannt. Am besten bewertet wurden jedoch, neben der BTX-Therapie, spezielle physiotherapeutische sowie psychotherapeutische Verfahren. Die CAM-Therapien wurden häufig in Kombination mit der BTX-Therapie angewendet und von Patienten, deren Erkrankung einen langen chronischen Verlauf vorwies (>10 Jahre). Als Prädiktoren für die Wahl einer CAM-Therapie zeigten sich eine Zugehörigkeit zur Gruppe 2, aufgetretene Nebenwirkungen im Rahmen der BTX-Therapie, männliches Geschlecht und erhöhter Stress bei den Erkrankten. Außerdem fand sich ein signifikanter Unterschied zu einem höheren Bildungsabschnitt und Arbeit in gehobeneren Berufsgruppen bei Patienten, die vermehrt CAM Therapie anwenden. Zusammenfassend wurden CAM-Therapien, neben der Behandlung mit BTX, häufig von den Befragten angewendet. Hohe Zufriedenheitswerte erzielte eine Kombination mit physiotherapeutischen Verfahren oder Psychotherapie. Die Wahl von CAM-Therapien ist von der Erkrankungsdauer, Bildungslage und finanziellen Ressourcen abhängig.

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI)
Research indicates that negative affective traits (e.g., depression) are predictors and consequences of excess adiposity. Given that racial minorities and positive affective traits have been underrepresented in past investigations, more prospective studies are needed which examine multiple affective traits in relation to obesity in these populations. The objective of the current study was to investigate the prospective, bidirectional associations between multiple affective traits and multiple adiposity indicators in African Americans using data from the African American Health (AAH) study. The AAH study is a prospective cohort study of African Americans aged 49-65 years at baseline (N = 998). The longest follow-up period in the current study was 9 years (N = 579). Self-reported and measured body mass index (BMI; kg/m2) and body fat percent (BF%) were used as adiposity indicators. Depressive symptoms were assessed with the 11-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D), and anxiety was assessed using the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-2 (GAD-2) scale. Positive affective traits were assessed with the Vitality subscale of the Short Form-36 and Positive Affect subscale from the CES-D. Latent variable path analysis, a structural equation modeling technique, was conducted. Although fit statistics indicated that the models fit the data (RMSEA < .06), examination of the structural paths revealed that the CES-D and GAD-2 were not predictors or consequences of self-reported BMI, measured BMI, or BF% (ps > .05). Likewise, Vitality and CES-D Positive Affect were not related to any adiposity indicator (ps > .05). The results of this prospective cohort study suggest that affective traits are not predictors or consequences of adiposity in middle-aged African Americans and that this group may require obesity prevention or intervention programs with little to no emphasis on affective traits. Possible explanations for the current results include ethnic differences in the mechanistic pathways between affective traits and adiposity.

This paper has attempted to determine if there is a significant relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. The study has been based upon the conceptual framework set forth in Self-Determination Theory. The purpose of the study was to explore the relationship between self-determination and client outcomes among the homeless. Using a data collection instrument, based on empirically validated instrumentation, clients from several homeless service providers in the City of San Bernardino were assessed for the level of self-determination and autonomy support they experience within these agencies. Outcome measures included such things as whether the client was going to school, had a job and had a bank account. Overall, the results of the study were inconclusive, though some interesting post hoc observations were made. It was the primary aim of this paper to increase the knowledge base of the local network of homeless service providers and to promote the compassionate, equitable, and dignified treatment of the population they serve.

Massachusetts passed legislation in the fall of 2012 to allow the construction of three casinos and a slot parlor in the state. The prevalence of problem gambling in the state and in areas where casinos will be constructed is of particular interest. The goal is to evaluate the change in prevalence after construction of the casinos, using a multi-mode address based sample survey. The objective of this thesis is to evaluate and describe ways of using statistical inference to estimates prevalence rates in finite populations. Four methods were considered in an attempt to evaluate the prevalence of problem gambling in the context of the gambling study. These methods were evaluated unconditionally and conditionally, controlling for gender, using mean square error (MSE) as a measure of accuracy. The simple mean, the post-stratified mean, the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP), and the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) were considered in three examples. Conditional analyses of a population with N=1,000 and a crude problem gambling rate of 1.5, samples of n=200 led to the simple mean and the post-stratified mean to perform better in certain situations, as measured by their low MSE values. When there are less females than expected in a sample, the post-stratified mean produces a lower mean MSE over the 10,000 simulations. When there are more females than expected in a sample, the simple mean produces a lower mean MSE over the 10,000 simulations. Conditional analysis provided more appropriate results than unconditional analysis.

While the body of the literature in sampling suggests methods for the analysis of surveys based on complex sampling design, no systematic approach has been elaborated to address the problem at the sampling design stage. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of sampling clusters on epidemiologic survey estimates The basic methodology used was to compare the magnitude of clustering effects between surveys with similar sampling designs. Five previous national surveys with comparable designs (two National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, NHANES, and three Demographic and Health Surveys, DHS) were used to compare the clustering effects of variables between surveys in the same country and across different countries and to evaluate their impact on interval estimates. The comparison of sampling errors, including the design effect and the ratio of homogeneity (roh), was done for 990 variables in NHANES and 261 variables in DHS. This was done for both the stratified and unstratified sampling designs The variables showed a great range of variability in their tendency to cluster. Clustering of socio-demographic variables was different from that of health-related variables in its magnitude. The ratio of homogeneity for unstratified clusters (natural roh) exhibited the highest degree of stability among the compared surveys (r = 0.98 for NHANES and 0.76-0.98 for DHS). In addition, natural roh was the highest component of the sampling errors to show no statistical significant difference among variable subgroups of the compared surveys. The impact of the design effect on interval estimates for health-related variables based on complex survey samples was so marked that failure to adjust for it led to underestimating the length of the confidence intervals by 23% to over 200% of the actual length Based on the empirical results of this study, adjustment for the clustering effect at the design stage should involve, whenever possible, the natural roh for major survey variables. The design effect can be, then, manipulated by the number of elements to be selected from each cluster and not by the overall sample size
acase@tulane.edu

The study explored, described and explained the current models of voluntary counselling and testing services delivery and analysed the extent to which a given VCT model had influenced uptake of VCT services in the fishing communities along the shores of Lake Victoria, in Wakiso District, with an aim of designing optimal VCT service delivery strategies. The study was therefore exploratory, descriptive and explanatory, and collected both qualitative and quantitative data in a three-phased approach. Phase I involved the Kasenyi fishing community respondents, while phases II and III involved VCT managers and VCT counsellors at the Entebbe and Kisubi Hospitals. The findings indicated that VCT services are generally available onsite at health facilities, and in the field through mobile VCT outreach or home-based VCT services provided at clients’ homes. Both client-initiated and health provider-initiated VCT services are available and services are integrated with other health services. Despite the availability of VCT, only about half of the respondents in phase I had accessed VCT services although almost all indicated a willingness to undergo HIV testing in the near future. The main challenges to service delivery and utilisation included limited funding and staffing as well as limited awareness in target communities. The strategies drawn are based on the need to increase availability, accessibility, acceptability and utilisation of VCT services.
Health Studies
D. Litt. et Phil. (Health Studies)

Surveys collect descriptive data about the behaviors or opinions of a population. The power of surveys comes from applying the same questions and the same response choices to a large number of people. In the health humanities, surveys have most often been used for course or program evaluations, to learn about patient experiences, and to collect data on opinions. A good survey has a defined research question and respondent population, and it asks carefully crafted questions including yes/no, multiple choice, ratings, rankings, sliders, pull-downs, and text entry. Surveys require Institutional Review Board review and a knowledge of basic statistics. While a good survey can provide generalizable perspectives, one of their main limitations is that they do not explain why people answer as they do.

Routine health information and surveillance systems collect and report information from the peripheral health facilities to the local district headquarters. Data are collected and recorded when people visit health facilities and later analysed and communicated to the Ministry of Health and other organizations. Data can also be collected using qualitative methods and surveys. District staff should know how to analyse and produce reliable local information. The Ministry of Health or national statistics bureau is usually responsible for collating this information for the whole country. A check list for reporting local health information is included.

Epidemiologic data are paramount to targeting and implementing evidence-based control measures to protect the public’s health and safety. A field epidemiologist conducting an investigation to identify the cause of an urgent public health problem must determine quickly what decisions need to be made to implement control measures and what information and data are needed to support these measures. For efficiency, the epidemiologist should assess whether study protocols used in prior investigations, including use of existing data and methods for collecting new data, are available and can be adapted. The epidemiologist should evaluate whether existing data sources (e.g., vital statistics, notifiable disease registries, population-based surveys) are useful for addressing the investigation objectives or whether additional data need to be collected. If primary data collection is undertaken, the epidemiologist must assess the appropriate collection mode (e.g., self-administered, phone, on-line) that will in turn help to dictate the questionnaire format, length, and style of questions (e.g., close-ended, open-ended). Piloting the questionnaire with colleagues and study participants, and making appropriate edits will save time in the long run. Preliminary analyses, even before collection is complete, will ensure that data are high quality and adequate to answer the study objectives. Responding to urgent public health issues requires balancing the speed of response with the need for accurate data and information to support the implementation of control measures. Adapting preexisting protocols and questionnaires facilitates a timely response and consistency across jurisdictions.

Abstract For much of the past half century, researchers at the National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) have marshaled statistics about arts “supply and demand” in the United States—one thinks immediately of surveys tracking the public’s arts participation habits, or reports about the artist labor force or arts organizations and industries. A separate focus of NEA research has been to measure the “value and impact” of the arts for individuals and communities. Such studies often use experimental or quasi-experimental methods to understand the relationships between the arts and various outcomes of interest, such as in health, education, or community development. The COVID-19 pandemic’s toll on arts organizations and arts workers has revealed some limitations to this twofold approach. The United States currently lacks a national arts surveillance and reporting system, one with sufficient data streams (approximating real time) that reliably can inform the sector about the health and vitality of its component parts, especially during economic downturns. Also lacking is a national clearinghouse of evidence-based practices that can appeal directly to arts managers. Although the NEA is not in a position to satisfy both needs entirely, the agency’s development of a new strategic plan and research agenda has surfaced themes that will contribute to a far more practitioner-oriented set of research investments than the NEA has made in previous years.

This initial chapter has two aims. Firstly, it seeks to clarify definitional and conceptual issues relating to the key interaction phenomena, migration and commuting, on which the authors concentrate in this book and for which they strive to obtain information to enhance their understanding of the processes that are taking place in the real world. The chapter explains the conceptual distinction between migrants and migrations, the importance of which becomes clear when the difference between transition and movement data is outlined, and it considers the alternative units of migrant measurement that are used such as individuals, wholly moving households and moving groups. Whilst migration tends to be measured over a period of time, typically a year, commuting is an activity that occurs on a much more frequent basis and consequently is usually measured as the numbers making a journey on one day. The chapter indicates how commuting to work and commuting to study are defined and measured. Secondly, the chapter contains the summary of an audit of interaction data sources, outlining the characteristics of the different types of data that are available from censuses, registers and surveys. Particular emphasis is placed on the former, the Census of Population, for which there are a number of data products providing migration and commuting counts at different spatial scales and disaggregated by various attributes; micro data are distinguished from macro data. However, the chapter also introduces a range of other interaction data sources such as the registers of National Health Service patients, the Pupil Level Annual School Census, the databases of the Higher Education Statistics Agency, various national level surveys such as the Labour Force Survey and the International Passenger Survey. In some cases, the data are exemplified using tables or maps. The chapter concludes with a reflection on the importance of the census as a key data source for small area analysis and a plea that, in a post-census world, sufficient steps be taken by central government to ensure the creation and provision of information systems for monitoring migration and commuting in an effective way, providing accurate and reliable intelligence on trends and creating opportunities for new research projects that develop explanations.

In this chapter we describe the Samples of Anonymised Records (SARs) and Longitudinal Studies (LSs). The SARs are cross-sectional data like the area and interaction data, but the LSs track people over time. These datasets differ from the United Kingdom’s other census outputs being individual-level ‘microdata’ and population samples. The microdata files are very versatile, allowing multi-way crosstabulations and statistical techniques and enabling application-relevant re-coded variables and study populations to be defined. The SARs files offer UK coverage although a UK-wide study is challenging because data for each country may be in separate files with different access arrangements and variable detail may be country specific. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study for England and Wales has underpinned a wide range of research since the 1970s. This well-established source is now complemented by longitudinal data for Scotland and Northern Ireland. Largely driven by the need to ensure respondent confidentiality, the SARs and LSs have some drawbacks for migration-related research. In addition to stringent access arrangements, the geographical area to which individuals are located in the SARs tend to be coarse and although the LS databases record the small area in which the LS member was living at each census, specific ‘place’ information is unlikely to be considered non-disclosive unless for large geographies. However, generic, contextual information about the ‘space’ in which people live is useful even though actual places are not identified. Whilst the SARs and LSs are samples, they are, however, very large samples in comparison with other national surveys and represent first rate resources to complement other sources. In the course of this chapter, along with other references to SARs and LS-based migration research, we review work which utilised these sources to investigate inter-relationships between health, deprivation and migration. The SARs data show that migration is health-selective by age and distance moved and that those persons living in the public housing tenure who are moving into or within deprived areas are most likely to be ill. The role of migration in changing health inequalities between differently deprived areas can be explored using longitudinal data on both origins and destinations. The ONS LS reveals that migrants into and between the least deprived areas have better health than non-migrants, but migrants into and between the most deprived areas have the worst health. The effect of these changes has been to increase the inequality in health between differently deprived areas. A sorting, largely driven by selective migration occurs.

New trends of reasonable consumption, healthy lifestyle, and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in the urban environment popularize the bicycle as a new type of vehicle. In comparison with European countries in Russia, the bicycle has not yet achieved much attention from the citizens. However, in Russia, according to social surveys, there is a request for the development of bicycle infrastructure. This study examines how the growth of cycling infrastructure may depend on the development of cycling in the country. The article presents both a comparison of various cities according to the index of the provision of bicycle paths for the population, and the identification of leading countries in the statistics of sports victories, the number of indoor bike tracks and the world championships held. The city of Izhevsk acts as an object for comparison in the study. Based on open data on the cycling infrastructure of the city and the document on the development strategy of the Udmurt Republic, the article discusses the identified criteria and how they can affect the development of cycling infrastructure in Russia.

The impact of Apartment Design on the well-being of occupants has become even more critical during the time of the Covid-19 Pandemic. This health crisis is emphasizing the need for resilient built form, especially in the field of housing. Unlike standalone housing, communal housing in the form of high-rise apartments pose many challenges to the lifestyle and the sense of well-being of residents during a pandemic. Lockdowns, social isolation, and quarantine have an adverse impact on the physical, social, and mental well-being of apartment dwellers. This study aims to explore the sense of well-being, their adaptations, and resilience to living in apartments during the Covid-19 pandemic, through a case study of an upper-middle-income apartment complex in Sri Lanka. Primary data on respondents’ perceptions, lifestyle during the pandemic, and the challenges to their well-being are explored via online surveys among 38 respondents. Secondary data on the apartment design features are explored via observations and document analysis. Both descriptive statistics and content analysis is conducted to explore the quantitative and qualitative data respectively. Findings reveal apartment design considerations for more resilient and adaptable dwellings in the face of a pandemic, to address the sense of well-being of its dwellers.

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in families self-isolating under incredible stress. Viral containment strategies included school closures with parents left to homeschool their children with few supports from the educational system. Recent data show that those with children at home were more likely to drink heavily during the pandemic (Rodriguez et al., in press). Gaps remain, however, in understanding whether these effects are due to the stresses of homeschooling and whether they extend to cannabis use. Seven-hundred-and-sixty Canadian romantic couples (total N=1520 participants; mean age = 57 years; 50% women) who were self-isolating together during the month of April 2020 were recruited through Qualtrics Panel Surveys. Measures were completed retrospectively in early July 2020; participants were asked to report on their feelings and behavior in April 2020 during lockdown. They completed the GAD-7 (Spitzer et al., 2006) and the PHQ-9 (Kronke et al., 2001) to assess anxiety and depression, brief versions of four subscales of the COVID-19 Stress Scales (Taylor et al., 2020) to assess stress around the pandemic, and the Life Orientation Test – Revised (Chiesi et al., 2013) to assess optimism. They completed a measure of role strain (Statistics Canada, 2015) and a measure of conflict with their partner (Murray et al., 2003). They also completed a validated measure of cannabis use frequency and quantity (Cuttler et al., 2017), as well as two validated items from the Brief Cannabis Motives Measures (Bartel et al., 2020) to assess cannabis use to cope with depression and anxiety, respectively. All measures were completed for a 30-day timeframe during the month of April. Participants also reported on whether they were homeschooling one or more children in Grade 1-12 during the month of April. Data was analyzed with a one-way (homeschooling group) Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) controlling for group differences in age; a Bonferroni-correction was applied to account for multiple tests. Compared to those who did not homeschool (n=1116), those who did homeschool (n=404) experienced significantly more depression (p=.001), more COVID-19-related stress around socioeconomic consequences (p<.001) and traumatic stress (p<.001), and less optimism (p=.002). And those who homeschooled experienced more role strain between their home and work responsibilities (p<.001) and more conflict both toward and from their partner (p’s<.001) than those who did not homeschool. Those who homeschooled also used cannabis significantly more frequently in the month of April than those who did not homeschool (p=.003). Compared to cannabis users who did not homeschool (n=122), cannabis users who did homeschool (n=61) reported more frequent cannabis use to cope with both depression and anxiety (p’s = .003). These findings suggest that unintended consequences of our societal viral containment strategies include more depression, pessimism, role strain, inter-parental conflict, and certain COVID-related stresses, and extend to more frequent cannabis use to cope with negative affect, among parents required to homeschool during the pandemic. These unintended mental health and substance misuse consequences for parents need to be considered when planning for an educational strategy in the fall and for any future waves of the pandemic.

For the confidence intervals used in the standards for rates from vital statistics and complex health surveys, this report evaluates coverage probability, relative width, and the resulting percentage of rates flagged as statistically unreliable when compared with previously used standards.

The Montney Formation is a highly productive hydrocarbon reservoir with significant reserves of hydrocarbon gases and liquids making it of great economic importance to Canada. However, high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) have been encountered during exploration and development that have detrimental effects on environmental, health, and economics of production. H2S is a highly toxic and corrosive gas and therefore it is essential to understand the distribution of H2S within the basin in order to enhance identification of areas with a high risk of encountering elevated H2S concentrations in order to mitigate against potential negative impacts. Gas composition data from Montney wells is routinely collected by operators for submission to provincial regulators and is publicly available. We have combined data from Alberta (AB) and British Columbia (BC) to create a basin-wide database of Montney H2S concentrations. We then used an iterative quality control and quality assurance process to produce a dataset that best represents gas composition in reservoir fluids. This included: 1) designating gas source formation based on directional surveys using a newly developed basin-wide 3D model incorporating AGS's Montney model of Alberta with a model in BC, which removes errors associated with reported formations; 2) removed injection and disposal wells; 3) assessed wells with the 50 highest H2S concentrations to determine if gas composition data is accurate and reflective of reservoir fluid chemistry; and 4) evaluated spatially isolated extreme values to ensure data accuracy and prevent isolated highs from negatively impacting data interpolation. The resulting dataset was then used to calculate statistics for each x, y location to input into the interpolation process. Three interpolations were constructed based on the associated phase classification: H2S in gas, H2S in liquid (C7+), and aqueous H2S. We used Empirical Bayesian Kriging interpolation to generate H2S distribution maps along with a series of model uncertainty maps. These interpolations illustrate that H2S is heterogeneously distributed across the Montney basin. In general, higher concentrations are found in AB compared with BC with the highest concentrations in the Grande Prairie region along with several other isolated region in the southeastern portion of the basin. The interpolations of H2S associated with different phases show broad similarities. Future mapping research will focus on subdividing intra-Montney sub-members plus under- and overlying strata to further our understanding of the role migration plays in H2S distribution within the Montney basin.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

To assess the effectiveness of youth centers in reaching adolescents with reproductive health information, life skills, and services, the Reproductive Health Research Unit in KwaZulu Natal and the Population Council conducted an assessment of 12 youth centers and their affiliated peer education programs. The centers were run by the KwaZulu Natal Department of Health, the loveLife program, and the Youth and Adolescent Reproductive Health Program. Researchers also examined young people’s use of condoms as protection against pregnancy and HIV/AIDS. Data sources for this study, conducted in 2000, were an inventory of youth center services, interviews with center staff and clients, service statistics, and community surveys of 1,399 young people aged 12–24 and their parents. As noted in this brief, the study found that many sexually active young people in South Africa are knowledgeable about the sexual transmission of HIV/AIDS but do not use condoms consistently. Service providers can do more to promote condom use among youth by placing condom dispensers in private places and counseling youth on correct condom use and safer sexual practices.