Journal articles on the topic 'Hazard'
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Sedgwick, P. "Hazards and hazard ratios." BMJ 345, sep07 1 (September 7, 2012): e5980-e5980. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.e5980.
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Hernán, Miguel A. "The Hazards of Hazard Ratios." Epidemiology 21, no. 1 (January 2010): 13–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/ede.0b013e3181c1ea43.
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Liu, Baoyin, Yim Ling Siu, and Gordon Mitchell. "Hazard interaction analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on hazard-forming environment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 2 (March 3, 2016): 629–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-629-2016.
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Abstract. This paper develops a systematic hazard interaction classification based on the geophysical environment that natural hazards arise from – the hazard-forming environment. According to their contribution to natural hazards, geophysical environmental factors in the hazard-forming environment were categorized into two types. The first are relatively stable factors which construct the precondition for the occurrence of natural hazards, whilst the second are trigger factors, which determine the frequency and magnitude of hazards. Different combinations of geophysical environmental factors induce different hazards. Based on these geophysical environmental factors for some major hazards, the stable factors are used to identify which kinds of natural hazards influence a given area, and trigger factors are used to classify the relationships between these hazards into four types: independent, mutex, parallel and series relationships. This classification helps to ensure all possible hazard interactions among different hazards are considered in multi-hazard risk assessment. This can effectively fill the gap in current multi-hazard risk assessment methods which to date only consider domino effects. In addition, based on this classification, the probability and magnitude of multiple interacting natural hazards occurring together can be calculated. Hence, the developed hazard interaction classification provides a useful tool to facilitate improved multi-hazard risk assessment.
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Liu, B., Y. L. Siu, and G. Mitchell. "Hazard interaction analysis for multi-hazard risk assessment: a systematic classification based on hazard-forming environment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 12 (December 1, 2015): 7203–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-7203-2015.
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Abstract. This paper develops a systematic hazard interaction classification based on the geophysical environment that natural hazards arise from – the hazard-forming environment. According to their contribution to natural hazards, geophysical environmental factors in the hazard-forming environment were categorized into two types. The first are relatively stable factors which construct the precondition for the occurrence of natural hazards, whilst the second are trigger factors, which determine the frequency and magnitude of hazards. Different combinations of geophysical environmental factors induce different hazards. Based on these geophysical environmental factors for some major hazards, the stable factors are used to identify which kinds of natural hazards influence a given area, and trigger factors are used to classify the relationships between these hazards into four types: independent, mutex, parallel and series relationships. This classification helps to ensure all possible hazard interactions among different hazards are considered in multi-hazard risk assessment. This can effectively fill the gap in current multi-hazard risk assessment methods which to date only consider domino effects. In addition, based on this classification, the probability and magnitude of multiple interacting natural hazards occurring together can be calculated. Hence, the developed hazard interaction classification provides a useful tool to facilitate improved multi-hazard risk assessment.
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Wagner, Harrison R. "The hazards of thinking about moral hazard." Ethnopolitics 4, no. 2 (June 2005): 237–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17449050500147283.
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Read, Laura K., and Richard M. Vogel. "Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16, no. 4 (April 11, 2016): 915–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-915-2016.
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Abstract. Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.
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Read, L. K., and R. M. Vogel. "Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 11 (November 13, 2015): 6883–915. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-6883-2015.
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Abstract. Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Generalized Pareto (GP) model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series X, with corresponding failure time series T, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with rich opportunities for future extensions.
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Gill, Joel C., and Bruce D. Malamud. "Hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) within multi-hazard methodologies." Earth System Dynamics 7, no. 3 (August 23, 2016): 659–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-659-2016.
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Abstract. This paper combines research and commentary to reinforce the importance of integrating hazard interactions and interaction networks (cascades) into multi-hazard methodologies. We present a synthesis of the differences between multi-layer single-hazard approaches and multi-hazard approaches that integrate such interactions. This synthesis suggests that ignoring interactions between important environmental and anthropogenic processes could distort management priorities, increase vulnerability to other spatially relevant hazards or underestimate disaster risk. In this paper we proceed to present an enhanced multi-hazard framework through the following steps: (i) description and definition of three groups (natural hazards, anthropogenic processes and technological hazards/disasters) as relevant components of a multi-hazard environment, (ii) outlining of three types of interaction relationship (triggering, increased probability, and catalysis/impedance), and (iii) assessment of the importance of networks of interactions (cascades) through case study examples (based on the literature, field observations and semi-structured interviews). We further propose two visualisation frameworks to represent these networks of interactions: hazard interaction matrices and hazard/process flow diagrams. Our approach reinforces the importance of integrating interactions between different aspects of the Earth system, together with human activity, into enhanced multi-hazard methodologies. Multi-hazard approaches support the holistic assessment of hazard potential and consequently disaster risk. We conclude by describing three ways by which understanding networks of interactions contributes to the theoretical and practical understanding of hazards, disaster risk reduction and Earth system management. Understanding interactions and interaction networks helps us to better (i) model the observed reality of disaster events, (ii) constrain potential changes in physical and social vulnerability between successive hazards, and (iii) prioritise resource allocation for mitigation and disaster risk reduction.
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Khatakho, Rajesh, Dipendra Gautam, Komal Raj Aryal, Vishnu Prasad Pandey, Rajesh Rupakhety, Suraj Lamichhane, Yi-Chung Liu, et al. "Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal." Sustainability 13, no. 10 (May 11, 2021): 5369. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13105369.
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Natural hazards are complex phenomena that can occur independently, simultaneously, or in a series as cascading events. For any particular region, numerous single hazard maps may not necessarily provide all information regarding impending hazards to the stakeholders for preparedness and planning. A multi-hazard map furnishes composite illustration of the natural hazards of varying magnitude, frequency, and spatial distribution. Thus, multi-hazard risk assessment is performed to depict the holistic natural hazards scenario of any particular region. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, multi-hazard risk assessments are rarely conducted in Nepal although multiple natural hazards strike the country almost every year. In this study, floods, landslides, earthquakes, and urban fire hazards are used to assess multi-hazard risk in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is then integrated with the Geographical Information System (GIS). First, flood, landslide, earthquake, and urban fire hazard assessments are performed individually and then superimposed to obtain multi-hazard risk. Multi-hazard risk assessment of Kathmandu Valley is performed by pair-wise comparison of the four natural hazards. The sum of observations concludes that densely populated areas, old settlements, and the central valley have high to very high level of multi-hazard risk.
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Yilmaz, Işık, Marian Marschalko, and Martin Bednarik. "Gypsum collapse hazards and importance of hazard mapping." Carbonates and Evaporites 26, no. 2 (June 28, 2011): 193–209. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s13146-011-0055-4.
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Uddin, S. M. Jamil, Alex Albert, Abdullah Alsharef, Bhavana Pandit, Yashwardhan Patil, and Chukwuma Nnaji. "Hazard Recognition Patterns Demonstrated by Construction Workers." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 21 (October 24, 2020): 7788. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17217788.
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Construction workers fail to recognize a large number of safety hazards. These unrecognized safety hazards can lead to unintended hazard exposure and tragic safety incidents. Unfortunately, traditional hazard recognition interventions (e.g., job hazard analyses and safety training) have been unable to tackle the industry-wide problem of poor hazard recognition levels. In fact, emerging evidence has demonstrated that traditional hazard recognition interventions have been designed without a proper understanding of the challenges workers experience during hazard recognition efforts. Interventions and industry-wide efforts designed based on a more thorough understanding of these challenges can yield substantial benefits—including superior hazard recognition levels and lower injury rates. Towards achieving this goal, the current investigation focused on identifying hazard categories that workers are more proficient in recognizing and others that they are less proficient in recognizing (i.e., hazard recognition patterns). For the purpose of the current study, hazards were classified on the basis of the energy source per Haddon’s energy release theory (e.g., gravity, motion, electrical, chemical, etc.). As part of the study, 287 workers representing 57 construction workplaces in the United States were engaged in a hazard recognition activity. Apart from confirming previous research findings that workers fail to recognize a disproportionate number of safety hazards, the results demonstrate that the workers are more proficient in recognizing certain hazard types. More specifically, the workers on average recognized roughly 47% of the safety hazards in the gravity, electrical, motion, and temperature hazard categories while only recognizing less than 10% of the hazards in the pressure, chemical, and radiation hazard categories. These findings can inform the development of more robust interventions and industry-wide initiatives to tackle the issue of poor hazard recognition levels in the construction industry.
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Mar’atusholihah, Euis Rahmah, E. K. S. Harini Muntasib, and Siti Badriyah Rushayati. "Tourism Hazard Mitigation in Mount Rinjani National Park, West Nusa Tenggara." Social Science, Humanities and Sustainability Research 2, no. 2 (June 18, 2021): p5. http://dx.doi.org/10.22158/sshsr.v2n2p5.
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Mountaineering tourism in Mount Rinjani National Park has various potential natural hazards and requires improved mitigation to ensure tourism security and sustainability. The purpose of this research is to identify the perceptions of tourism actors on the tourism hazards, inventory the types of tourism hazards that occur and mitigate the hazards that have been carried out, and develop tourism hazard mitigation. The methods used in this research are interviews, field observations, and literature studies. Public perceptions of the mountaineering tourism hazard are included in the good category, which means people already know and understand the type and risk of hazard tourism. The types of tourism hazards that have occurred are earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, fires, ravines, slippery ravines, cold temperatures, fog, wildlife, and plant hazard. The mitigation that has been carried out consists of mitigation before the hazard event and after the hazard event. Mitigation efforts are divided into regulations, facilities and infrastructure, education, and awareness programs. It is necessary to improve mitigation through addition and improvement of climbing procedures and hazard management procedures, improvement of hiking hazard maps, improvement quality of facilities to minimize damage, making secure infrastructure as a means of warning, security, and emergency response, and socialization/education-related hazard mitigation and how to deal with it.
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Reuter, Hauke, Gertrud Menzel, Hendrik Pehlke, and Broder Breckling. "Hazard mitigation or mitigation hazard?" Environmental Science and Pollution Research 15, no. 7 (October 7, 2008): 529–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-008-0049-5.
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Drakes, Oronde, and Eric Tate. "Social vulnerability in a multi-hazard context: a systematic review." Environmental Research Letters 17, no. 3 (February 21, 2022): 033001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac5140.
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Abstract The interacting effects of multiple hazards pose a substantial challenge to poverty reduction and national development. Yet, social vulnerability to multiple hazards is a relatively understudied, though growing concern. The impacts of climate hazards in particular, leave increasingly large populations becoming more exposed and susceptible to the devastating effects of repeat, chronic and sequential natural hazards. Multi-hazard research has focused on the physical aspects of natural hazards, giving less attention to the social facets of human-hazard interaction. Further, there is no single conceptualization of ‘multi-hazard’. This systematic review utilizes correlations and hierarchical clustering to determine how social vulnerability is assessed in the context of the three most common classifications of ‘multi-hazard’: aggregate, cascading and compound. Results reveal these classifications of ‘multi-hazard’ each focus on different aspects of social vulnerability. Studies in the aggregate classification of multi-hazard were more likely to represent social vulnerability as an outcome of hazard events, while those in the cascading and compound classifications more often addressed social vulnerability as a preexisting condition. Further, knowledge of social vulnerability to multi-hazards comes mainly from the aggregate classification and the mitigation phase of the disaster cycle. The difference in perspectives of social vulnerability covered, and limited context in which multi-hazard studies of social vulnerability have been applied, mean a full understanding of social vulnerability remains elusive. We argue that research should focus on the cascading and compound classifications of multi-hazards, which are more suited to interrogating how human-(multi)hazard interactions shape social vulnerability.
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Raynor, Steve, and Megan Boston. "Multi-hazard analysis and mapping of coastal Tauranga in support of resilience planning." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 54, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 176–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.54.2.176-183.
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High growth is increasingly forcing development of hazard prone land in the coastal city of Tauranga. A multi-hazard mapping tool developed to guide strategic growth planning in this natural hazard rich environment gives direct comparison of total hazard levels across the city. By aggregating individual hazards into a summative multi-hazard rating for each part of the city, urban planners and engineers have a decision support tool to aid city planning over the next 100 years.
Tauranga growth requires 40,000 new homes over the next four decades in addition to the existing 57,000 homes. This 70% growth must squeeze within tight geographic constraints as Tauranga's 137,000 residents nestle around a harbour and are bound by open coast to the north and steep terrain to the south.
This research quantifies Tauranga’s natural hazards of sea level rise, storm surge, coastal erosion, tsunami, earthquake shaking, liquefaction, landslides volcanic ashfall and flooding. Each hazard is spatially represented through hazard maps. Individual hazards are combined into a multi-hazard model to represent the aggregated hazard exposure of each point of the city. The multi-hazard exposure is spatially mapped using GIS allowing an area with tsunami, liquefaction and storm surge as dominant hazards to be directly compared with an area of different hazards such as flooding and landslides. Mapping of these hazards provides strategic input for building city resilience through land use planning and mitigation design. A pilot study area of 25 km2 selected from the Tauranga City Council total area of 135 km2 demonstrates the accumulated mapping approach. The pilot area contains a thorough representation of geology, elevation, landform and hazards that occur throughout the city.
Our findings showed the highest aggregated hazard areas in Tauranga are along the coast. As is common with many beach resort towns this corresponds with the most popular living areas. The lower hazard areas suitable for urban growth are distributed mostly away from the open coast in the slightly elevated topography.
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Asadamraji, Morteza, Mahmoud Saffarzadeh, Aminmirza Borujerdian, and Tayebeh Ferdousi. "Hazard Detection Prediction Model for Rural Roads Based on Hazard and Environment Properties." PROMET - Traffic&Transportation 30, no. 6 (December 21, 2018): 683–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.7307/ptt.v30i6.2638.
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A driver’s reaction time encountering hazards on roads involves different sections, and each section must occur at the right time to prevent a crash. An appropriate reaction starts with hazard detection. A hazard can be detected on time if it is completely visible to the driver. It is assumed in this paper that hazard properties such as size and color, the contrast between the environment and a hazard, whether the hazard is moving or fixed, and the presence of a warning are effective in improving driver hazard detection. A driving simulator and different scenarios on a two-lane rural road are used for assessing novice and experienced drivers’ hazard detection, and a Sugeno fuzzy model is used to analyze the data. The results show that the hazard detection ability of novice and experienced drivers decreases by 35% and 64%, respectively, during nighttime compared to daytime. Also, moving hazards increase hazard detection ability by 9% and 180% for experienced and novice drivers, respectively, compared to fixed hazards. Moreover, increasing size, contrast, and color difference affect hazard detection under nonlinear functions. The results could be helpful in safety improvement solution prioritization and in preventing vehicle-pedestrian, vehicle-animal, and vehicle-object crashes, especially for novice drivers.
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Mihić, Matej. "CLASSIFICATION OF CONSTRUCTION HAZARDS FOR A UNIVERSAL HAZARD IDENTIFICATION METHODOLOGY." JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT 26, no. 2 (February 7, 2020): 147–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jcem.2020.11932.
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Hazard identification in the construction industry is subject to a larger number of variables and unknowns than in other manufacturing industries making the hazard identification process more difficult and resulting in many injuries and fatalities. Moreover, previous research identified a research gap with regards to a universal hazard identification method. The results presented in this paper are a prerequisite for the development of such a method. Specifically, this paper proposes a novel classification of hazards in order to enable a more accurate hazard identification process which can take all possible hazards into consideration. Based on the theoretical framework, three hazard types are proposed in the research: self-induced hazards, peer-induced hazards, and global hazards. This classification is based on who is the source (who causes) the hazards in relation to who is affected by the hazards. Such classification was not identified in previous literature. This research also has practical implications. Such classification of hazards may influence safety experts to more actively focus on peer-induced hazards which are the hardest to identify. Finally, the outputs of the entire research should enable a more accurate and comprehensive hazard identification resulting in reduced injury and fatality rates in the construction industry.
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McIvor, David, Douglas Paton, and David Johnston. "Modelling Community Preparation for Natural Hazards: Understanding Hazard Cognitions." Journal of Pacific Rim Psychology 3, no. 2 (November 1, 2009): 39–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1375/prp.3.2.39.
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AbstractThis article examines how personal beliefs about hazard events interact with social context factors to influence how individuals interpret their relationship with their environment, assign meaning to natural hazards and their consequences, and make preparedness decisions. Building on earlier work applying the same theoretical model to volcanic hazard preparedness, this article examines earthquake and flood hazard preparedness. The study incorporates both quantitative and qualitative approaches to elicit more detailed information regarding the influences underlying individuals' decisions to adopt preparation activities to minimise the effects of natural hazards. Findings indicate that preparedness decisions are not made in isolation. Through community level discourse and processes importance is attached to natural hazards and protective measures. It is only when natural hazards are perceived as having greater salience than other threats that people are motivated to prepare for their effects. A major finding is a distinction between trust and distrust of civic authorities. The data suggest that preparedness decisions were strongly influenced by the relevance people attached to information provided by these civic authorities. Delivering hazard mitigation strategies involves engaging with community members in order to understand their needs and to render meaningful assistance to their preparedness decisions.
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Gong, Wenwu, Jie Jiang, and Lili Yang. "Dynamic risk assessment of compound hazards based on VFS–IEM–IDM: a case study of typhoon–rainstorm hazards in Shenzhen, China." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 10 (October 12, 2022): 3271–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3271-2022.
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Abstract. Global warming has led to increased compound hazards, and an accurate risk assessment of such hazards is of great importance to urban emergency management. Due to the interrelations between multiple hazards, the risk assessment of a compound hazard faces several challenges: (1) the evaluation of hazard level needs to consider the correlations between compound hazard drivers, (2) usually only a small number of data samples are available for estimating the joint probability distribution of the compound hazard drivers and the loss caused by the hazards, and (3) the risk assessment process often ignores the temporal dynamics of compound hazard occurrences. This paper aims to address the mentioned challenges and develop an integrated risk assessment model VFS–IEM–IDM to quantify the dynamic risk of compound hazards based on variable fuzzy set theory (VFS), information entropy method (IEM), and information diffusion method (IDM). For the first challenge, VFS–IEM–IDM measures the effect of the compound hazard drivers via the use of relative membership degree and analyses the correlation between drivers with the entropy weight method, which is combined to evaluate compound hazard level. To address the second challenge, VFS–IEM–IDM applies the normal diffusion function to estimate the probability distribution of the compound hazard and the corresponding loss vulnerability curve. To deal with the third challenge, VFS–IEM–IDM assesses the risk of a compound hazard in different months based on the definition of probabilistic risk. In the end, this paper takes the typhoon–rainstorm disaster in Shenzhen, China, as an example to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed VFS–IEM–IDM model. The results show that VFS–IEM–IDM effectively estimates the typhoon–rainstorm compound hazard level and assesses the dynamic risk of the compound hazards.
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Feng, Siqi, Kexin Yang, Jianli Liu, Yvlu Yang, Luna Zhao, Jiahong Wen, Chengcheng Wan, and Lijun Yan. "Multi-Hazard Population Exposure in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones of China from 1990 to 2020." Sustainability 15, no. 17 (August 24, 2023): 12813. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151712813.
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China’s low-elevation coastal zone (LECZ) is characterized by multiple hazards and high impacts. How to quantitatively portray the spatiotemporal characteristics of the exposed population to multi-hazards in the LECZ is an important subject of risk reduction. In this study, the overall characteristics, spatial patterns, and main impact hazard in the LECZ from 1990 to 2020 were investigated using a multi-hazard population exposure model, spatial autocorrelation method, and principal component analysis (PCA) method. The results show that among the four hazards (earthquake, tropical cyclones (TCs), flood, and storm surge), TCs cover the largest area, accounting for 90.1% of the total LECZ area. TCs were also the hazard with the largest average annual growth rate of the exposed population (2.36%). The central region of China’s LECZ is the cluster of exposed populations and the main distribution area with the largest increase in exposed populations. Therefore, the central region is a hotspot for multi-hazard risk management. Additionally, flood contributes the most to the multi-hazard population exposure index; thus, flood is a key hazard of concern in the LECZ. This study identifies the hotspot areas and priority hazards of multi-hazard exposed populations in the LECZ and provides important policy recommendations for multi-hazard risk management in the LECZ, which is important for LECZ to enhance the resilience of hazards.
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Rubio, Francisco J., Laurent Remontet, Nicholas P. Jewell, and Aurélien Belot. "On a general structure for hazard-based regression models: An application to population-based cancer research." Statistical Methods in Medical Research 28, no. 8 (August 2018): 2404–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0962280218782293.
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The proportional hazards model represents the most commonly assumed hazard structure when analysing time to event data using regression models. We study a general hazard structure which contains, as particular cases, proportional hazards, accelerated hazards, and accelerated failure time structures, as well as combinations of these. We propose an approach to apply these different hazard structures, based on a flexible parametric distribution (exponentiated Weibull) for the baseline hazard. This distribution allows us to cover the basic hazard shapes of interest in practice: constant, bathtub, increasing, decreasing, and unimodal. In an extensive simulation study, we evaluate our approach in the context of excess hazard modelling, which is the main quantity of interest in descriptive cancer epidemiology. This study exhibits good inferential properties of the proposed model, as well as good performance when using the Akaike Information Criterion for selecting the hazard structure. An application on lung cancer data illustrates the usefulness of the proposed model.
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Li, Jin. "Analysis of Evolving Hazard Overflows and Construction of an Alert System in the Chinese Finance Industry Using Statistical Learning Methods." Mathematics 11, no. 15 (July 26, 2023): 3279. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math11153279.
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With the global economic situation still uncertain and various businesses interconnected within the finance system, financial hazards exhibit characteristics such as rapid propagation and wide scope. Therefore, it is of great significance to analyze evolving changes and patterns of hazard overflow in the finance industry and construct a financial hazard alert system. We adopt the time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive model to examine the degree and evolving characteristics of financial hazard alerts from an industry perspective and construct financial hazard measurement indicators. To effectively prevent financial hazards and consider the non-linear causal relationship between financial hazards and macroeconomic variables, we utilize the long/short-term memory network model, which can capture temporal features, to construct a financial hazard alert system. Furthermore, we explore whether the inclusion of an online sentiment indicator can enhance the accuracy of financial hazard alerts, aiming to provide policy recommendations on strengthening financial market stability and establishing a hazard alert mechanism under macro-prudential supervision.
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Tosic, Radislav, Slavoljub Dragicevic, Novica Lovric, and Ivica Milevski. "Multi-hazard assessment using GIS in the urban areas: Case study - Banja Luka municipality, B&H." Glasnik Srpskog geografskog drustva 93, no. 4 (2013): 41–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/gsgd1304041t.
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The research presents a techniques for natural hazard assessment using GIS and cartographic approaches with multi-hazard mapping in urban communities, because natural hazards are a multi-dimensional phenomena which have a spatial component. Therefore the use of Remote Sensing and GIS has an important function and become essential in urban multi-hazard assessment. The first aim of this research was to determine the geographical distributions of the major types of natural hazards in the study area. Seismic hazards, landslides, rockfalls, floods, torrential floods, and excessive erosion are the most significant natural hazards within the territory of Banja Luka Municipality. Areas vulnerable to some of these natural hazards were singled out using analytical maps. Based on these analyses, an integral map of the natural hazards of the study area was created using multi-hazard assessment and the total vulnerability was determined by overlapping the results. The detailed analysis, through the focused research within the most vulnerable areas in the study area will highlight the administrative units (urban centres and communes) that are vulnerable to various types of natural hazard. The results presented in this article are the first multi-hazard assessment and the first version of the integral map of natural hazards in the Republic of Srpska.
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Halebsky, Max. "System Safety Engineering as Applied to Ship Design." Marine Technology and SNAME News 26, no. 03 (July 1, 1989): 245–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5957/mt1.1989.26.3.245.
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This paper describes the application of System Safety Engineering (SSE) during the design development phase of a ship program. The major objective is to incorporate safety into the initial ship design, including consideration of maintenance and operating safety. Accomplishment is by safety analyses which identify potential safety hazards and recommend specific actions to eliminate or minimize the hazards. The principal types of analyses performed are the preliminary hazard analysis, the subsystem hazard analysis, the system hazard analysis, the operating hazard analysis, and the fault tree analysis. Hazards are classified from Category I (catastrophic) to Category IV (negligible). Corrective action follows an order of precedence in which the preferred approach is to eliminate or control the hazard by means of the basic design, and the least desirable approach is to attempt to avoid the hazard by means of operating procedures
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Shim, Jae, and Chun-Il Kim. "Measuring Resilience to Natural Hazards: Towards Sustainable Hazard Mitigation." Sustainability 7, no. 10 (October 20, 2015): 14153–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su71014153.
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Nadal-Caraballo, Norberto C., Madison O. Campbell, Victor M. Gonzalez, Marissa J. Torres, Jeffrey A. Melby, and Alexandros A. Taflanidis. "Coastal Hazards System: A Probabilistic Coastal Hazard Analysis Framework." Journal of Coastal Research 95, sp1 (May 26, 2020): 1211. http://dx.doi.org/10.2112/si95-235.1.
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Argyropoulos, Christos P., and Mark L. Unruh. "The hazards of the changing hazard of dialysis modalities." Kidney International 86, no. 5 (November 2014): 884–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ki.2014.249.
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Bartlett, Jonathan W., Tim P. Morris, Mats J. Stensrud, Rhian M. Daniel, Stijn K. Vansteelandt, and Carl-Fredrik Burman. "The Hazards of Period Specific and Weighted Hazard Ratios." Statistics in Biopharmaceutical Research 12, no. 4 (June 23, 2020): 518–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/19466315.2020.1755722.
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Perperoglou, Aris, Saskia le Cessie, and Hans C. van Houwelingen. "Reduced-rank hazard regression for modelling non-proportional hazards." Statistics in Medicine 25, no. 16 (2006): 2831–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.2360.
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Bilger, Angela. "Hazard." Minnesota review 2018, no. 90 (2018): 49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00265667-4391417.
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Coculescu, Delia, and Ashkan Nikeghbali. "HAZARD PROCESSES AND MARTINGALE HAZARD PROCESSES." Mathematical Finance 22, no. 3 (December 5, 2010): 519–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00471.x.
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Li, Qian, Zhe Zhang, and Fei Peng. "Causality-Network-Based Critical Hazard Identification for Railway Accident Prevention: Complex Network-Based Model Development and Comparison." Entropy 23, no. 7 (July 6, 2021): 864. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e23070864.
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This study investigates a critical hazard identification method for railway accident prevention. A new accident causation network is proposed to model the interaction between hazards and accidents. To realize consistency between the most likely and shortest causation paths in terms of hazards to accidents, a method for measuring the length between adjacent nodes is proposed, and the most-likely causation path problem is first transformed to the shortest causation path problem. To identify critical hazard factors that should be alleviated for accident prevention, a novel critical hazard identification model is proposed based on a controllability analysis of hazards. Five critical hazard identification methods are proposed to select critical hazard nodes in an accident causality network. A comparison of results shows that the combination of an integer programming-based critical hazard identification method and the proposed weighted direction accident causality network considering length has the best performance in terms of accident prevention.
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Ward, Philip J., James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, et al. "Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 4 (April 26, 2022): 1487–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022.
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Abstract. Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the European Union (EU), the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management have taken centre stage in recent years. In this perspective paper, we outline several key developments in multi-(hazard-)risk research in the last decade, with a particular focus on the EU. We present challenges for multi-(hazard-)risk management as outlined in several research projects and papers. We then present a research agenda for addressing these challenges. We argue for an approach that addresses multi-(hazard-)risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-(hazard-)risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. Finally, we present a new pan-European research project in which our proposed research agenda will be implemented, with the goal of enabling stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and spatial scales.
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Ward, Philip J., James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, et al. "Invited perspectives: A research agenda towards disaster risk management pathways in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 4 (April 26, 2022): 1487–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022.
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Abstract. Whilst the last decades have seen a clear shift in emphasis from managing natural hazards to managing risk, the majority of natural-hazard risk research still focuses on single hazards. Internationally, there are calls for more attention for multi-hazards and multi-risks. Within the European Union (EU), the concepts of multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment and management have taken centre stage in recent years. In this perspective paper, we outline several key developments in multi-(hazard-)risk research in the last decade, with a particular focus on the EU. We present challenges for multi-(hazard-)risk management as outlined in several research projects and papers. We then present a research agenda for addressing these challenges. We argue for an approach that addresses multi-(hazard-)risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards. In this approach, the starting point is a specific sustainability challenge, rather than an individual hazard or sector, and trade-offs and synergies are examined across sectors, regions, and hazards. We argue for in-depth case studies in which various approaches for multi-(hazard-)risk management are co-developed and tested in practice. Finally, we present a new pan-European research project in which our proposed research agenda will be implemented, with the goal of enabling stakeholders to develop forward-looking disaster risk management pathways that assess trade-offs and synergies of various strategies across sectors, hazards, and spatial scales.
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Dai, Qiang, Xuehong Zhu, Lu Zhuo, Dawei Han, Zhenzhen Liu, and Shuliang Zhang. "A hazard-human coupled model (HazardCM) to assess city dynamic exposure to rainfall-triggered natural hazards." Environmental Modelling & Software 127 (May 2020): 104684. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104684.
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Depietri, Yaella, Khila Dahal, and Timon McPhearson. "Multi-hazard risks in New York City." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 12 (December 21, 2018): 3363–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3363-2018.
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Abstract. Megacities are predominantly concentrated along coastlines, making them exposed to a diverse mix of natural hazards. The assessment of climatic hazard risk to cities rarely has captured the multiple interactions that occur in complex urban systems. We present an improved method for urban multi-hazard risk assessment. We then analyze the risk of New York City as a case study to apply enhanced methods for multi-hazard risk assessment given the history of exposure to multiple types of natural hazards which overlap spatially and, in some cases, temporally in this coastal megacity. Our aim is to identify hotspots of multi-hazard risk to support the prioritization of adaptation strategies that can address multiple sources of risk to urban residents. We used socioeconomic indicators to assess vulnerabilities and risks to three climate-related hazards (i.e., heat waves, inland flooding and coastal flooding) at high spatial resolution. The analysis incorporates local experts' opinions to identify sources of multi-hazard risk and to weight indicators used in the multi-hazard risk assessment. Results demonstrate the application of multi-hazard risk assessment to a coastal megacity and show that spatial hotspots of multi-hazard risk affect similar local residential communities along the coastlines. Analyses suggest that New York City should prioritize adaptation in coastal zones and consider possible synergies and/or trade-offs to maximize impacts of adaptation and resilience interventions in the spatially overlapping areas at risk of impacts from multiple hazards.
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Li, Hai Ping, Rong Xiang Shan, and Zong Ling Yan. "The Causes of Geological Disasters in Chongqing Expressway Mechanism and Treatment Research." Applied Mechanics and Materials 166-169 (May 2012): 2669–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.166-169.2669.
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The thesis, based on the analysis of geological hazard, environment, and mechanism of hazard occurrence, accounting for the key factors of controlling disaster, and combining the object hazard damages to, proposed we should take a dynamic treatment of hazard according to the different hazard factors, and proposed reasonable methods to deal with these hazards, which exerts a good influence on the similar circumstances.
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Suhardi, Bambang, Pringgo Widyo Laksono, Andhika Ayu V.E, Jafri Mohd.Rohani, and Tan Shy Ching. "Analysis of the Potential Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) and Hazard Operability Study (HAZOP): Case Study." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 3.24 (August 10, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.24.17290.
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This study aims to investigate the potential hazards and accidents that might occur at batik printing PT. Batik Merak Manis and recommends practical solutions to enhance safety and health at the workplace. This research adopts Hazard Identification Risk Assessment (HIRA) and Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP) to perform risk identification and assessment in the workplace. There are 17 findings of potential hazards in the production areas of batik printing which can be categorized into five types of hazards including: workers attitude, work posture, work procedure, workstation, and physical work environment. Of the risk assessment, the obtained value of 34% in the category of extreme hazard, 24% hazard in the high and medium category respectively, and 18% lower hazard category. Proposed improvements are made based HAZOP analysis worksheet. The proposed practical solutions include improvements in work attitude, work posture, and physical work environment.
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Sun, Long, Meiqi Zhang, Yuanbo Qiu, and Changlu Zhang. "Effects of Sleep Deprivation and Hazard Types on the Visual Search Patterns and Hazard Response Times of Taxi Drivers." Behavioral Sciences 13, no. 12 (December 8, 2023): 1005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/bs13121005.
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The present study attempted to explore the effects of sleep deprivation on the visual search patterns and hazard response times of taxi drivers when they encountered different types of hazards. A two (driver groups: sleep deprivation or control) × two (hazard types: covert hazard or overt hazard) mixed experimental design was employed. A total of 60 drivers were recruited, half of whom were in the sleep-deprived group and half of whom were in the control group. A validated video-based hazard perception test that either contained covert hazards (12 video clips) or overt hazards (12 video clips) filmed from the drivers’ perspective was presented to participants. Participants were instructed to click the left mouse button quickly once they detected a potentially dangerous situation that could lead to an accident. Participants’ response time and eye movements relative to the hazards were recorded. The sleep-deprived group had a significantly longer response time and took a longer time to first fixate on covert hazards than the control group, while they had a shorter response time to overt hazards than the control group. The first fixation duration of sleep-deprived drivers was longer than that of the control group for overt hazards, while the duration of the first fixation of the two driver groups was similar for covert hazards. Sleep deprivation affects the visual search patterns and response times to hazards, and the adverse effects of sleep deprivation were worse in relation to covert hazards. The findings have some implications for classifying and evaluating high-risk taxi drivers whose hazard perception ability might be affected by insufficient sleep.
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Yang, Jingshuai, Chengxin Liu, Pengzi Chu, Xinqi Wen, and Yangyang Zhang. "Exploration of the Relationships between Hazard Perception and Eye Movement for Young Drivers." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2021 (December 28, 2021): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/6642999.
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Aiming at young drivers’ hazard perception (HP) and eye movement, a cross-sectional study was conducted in the city of Xi’an, China. 46 participants were recruited, and 35 traffic scenes were used to test drivers’ hazard perception and eye movement. The difference analysis and correlation analysis were carried out for the acquired data. The results suggest that some indices of hazard perception and eye movement are significantly correlated. A higher saccade speed is in the direction of higher hazardous scenes. Higher complex scenes result in smaller saccade angle. The number of hazards unidentified is negatively influenced by complexity degree and hazardous degree of traffic scenes, and similar associations are found between hazard identification time, complexity degree, and hazardous degree. The hazard identification time and the number of hazards slowly identified are positively affected by the number of fixations and the number of saccades. Meanwhile, differences in the hazardous degree evaluation, hazard identification time, number of hazards unidentified, number of fixations, and number of saccades are found in different types of traffic scenes. The results help us to improve the design of road and vehicle devices, as well as the assessment and enhancement of young drivers’ hazard perception skills.
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Emrich, Christopher T., Yao Zhou, Sanam K. Aksha, and Herbert E. Longenecker. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data." Sustainability 14, no. 5 (February 25, 2022): 2685. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14052685.
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The US is exposed to myriad natural hazards causing USD billions in damages and thousands of fatalities each year. Significant population and economic growth during the last several decades have resulted in more people residing in hazardous places. However, consistent national-scale hazard threat assessment techniques reflecting the state of hazard knowledge are not readily available for application in risk and vulnerability assessments. Mapping natural hazard threats is the crucial first step in identifying and implementing threat reduction or mitigation strategies. In this study, we demonstrate applied GIS approaches for creating and synthesizing US hazard threat extents using publicly available data for 15 natural hazards. Individually mapping each threat enables empirically supported intervention development and the building of a Composite Hazard Index (CHI). Summarizing the hazard frequencies provides a novel representation of US hazardousness. Implementing cluster analysis to regionalize US counties based on their underlying hazard characteristics offers insight into hazard threats’ spatial (non-political) natures. The results indicate that the southeast, central plains, and coastal regions of the northeast had high hazard occurrence scores, whereas more moderate hazard scores were observed west of the continental divide. Furthermore, while no place is safe from hazard occurrence, identifying each region’s distinct “hazardousness” can support individualized risk assessments and mitigation intervention development.
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Aidonojie, Paul Atagamen. "Environmental Hazard: The Legal Issues Concerning Environmental Justice in Nigeria." Journal of Human Rights, Culture and Legal System 3, no. 1 (February 14, 2023): 17–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.53955/jhcls.v3i1.60.
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One of the challenges the global community seeks to solve is environmental hazards emanating from human harmful activities. Although, Nigeria seems to be part of the global authors seeking environmental justice concerning environmental hazards, however, the incidence of environmental hazards seems to be very pronounced, given the ineptitude of environmental justice towards victims of an environmental hazard. It is concerning this that this study tends to embark on a hybrid method of study in ascertaining the current state of environmental hazard in Nigeria and the challenges concerning environmental justice. The study further found that the continuous environmental hazard in Nigeria is a result of the ineptitude of environmental justice toward the victim of an environmental hazard. The study therefore concludes and recommends that for an effective curtailing of the incidence of environmental hazards in Nigeria, the Nigerian government needs to intensify justice for the victim of environmental hazards and ensure the predators of environmental hazards are legally constricted from their continuous harmful activities.
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Woodbridge, Tom. "A Structured Scenario-Based Approach for Performing Functional Hazard Identification Analyses." Journal of System Safety 51, no. 1 (January 1, 2015): 24–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.56094/jss.v51i1.172.
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Several industry standards call for performing a functional hazard analysis as an early step in the overall hazard analysis process. This paper describes the structured, scenario-based approach for a functional hazard identification analysis used by the NASA Constellation Program’s Level 2 Ground Integration Hazard Analysis Team. The team used this method to determine system functions and identify the hazards associated with the Constellation Ares I rocket while on the launch pad. This paper provides examples from the analysis performed on the Ares I Crew Launch Vehicle, describes the method and offers a summary of the hazards uncovered by the method per vehicle stage. This method is applicable for identifying hazards in all types of systems and system integration scenarios. Lastly, while this functional hazard identification analysis approach has its advantages and should be in the safety engineer’s analytical toolbox, this paper also touches on the approach’s limitations.
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Hwang, Seong Nam, William G. Sanderson, and Michael K. Lindell. "State Emergency Management Agencies’ Hazard Analysis Information on the Internet." International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters 19, no. 1 (March 2001): 85–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/028072700101900104.
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This study examined hazard analysis information on state emergency management agencies’ (SEMAs’) Internet Web sites. The results showed that 3 of the 51 SEMAs in the United Stales did not have Web sites accessible to the public, and another 13 provided no hazard analysis information on their Web sites. Among those that da provide information about hazards, most address relatively few of the hazards to which their states are vulnerable. Moreover, there is poor correspondence of the hazard agents addressed on SEMA Web sites with either long-term vulnerability determined from hazard maps or recent impacts defined by federal major disaster declarations. This suggests that states are missing a major opportunity to educate local emergency managers and the public about the hazards to which they are vulnerable. Several recommendations are made for improving the content and format of hazard analysis information on SEMAs’ Web sites.
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Zhou, Di, Xiao Zhuang, Hongfu Zuo, Jing Cai, and Han Bao. "Hazard identification and prediction system for aircraft electrical system based on SRA and SVM." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part G: Journal of Aerospace Engineering 234, no. 4 (January 29, 2020): 1014–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0954410019894121.
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The aircraft electrical system provides power for the normal operation of the aircraft. Its normal operation is critical to ensure the safe flight of the aircraft. Therefore, it is very important to identify the hazards in the aircraft electrical system. In this paper, a hazard identification and prediction system which can intelligently identify potential hazards in aircraft electrical system is proposed. The proposed hazard identification and prediction system mainly includes three processes: variable selection, hazard identification, and hazard prediction. In the process of variable selection, the stepwise regression analysis is used to select 8 main parameters that have the major influence on the DC bus voltage value from 18 parameters. In the process of hazard identification, support vector machine is used to identify pre-existing hazards in electrical system based on the status of all components. The identification accuracy of the support vector machine is 92.3%. When the electrical system does not have unacceptable hazards, a prediction of the variation range of the DC bus voltage value in the aircraft electrical system is performed. The average prediction relative error of support vector machine is only 0.86%. Overall, the identification accuracy and average prediction relative error show that the proposed hazard identification and prediction system can accurately and effectively identify and predict the hazards in the aircraft electrical system.
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SZRAMA, Sławomir, and Adam KADZIŃSKI. "Hazard identification process in the selected analysis domain of the F100 turbofan engines maintenance system." Combustion Engines 171, no. 4 (November 1, 2017): 68–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.19206/ce-2017-412.
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The multirole F-16 is the most advanced aircraft in the Polish Air Forces. It has been equipped with the very modern, sophisticated and advanced turbofan engine F100-PW-229. Due to the fact, that there is only one engine, its reliability, durability efficiency and performance are the crucial factors for the safety reasons. In the article authors researched maintenance system of the F100 turbofan engines, which are built on the multirole F-16 aircraft. For the study purposes F100 maintenance system model has been created. From this model, the main analysis domain was derived, comprising “Major engine objects discrepancies removal” process. Considering such an analysis domain, on the basis of the schematic diagram of the hazard identification process, authors presented the following procedures: tools preparation for the hazard sources identification, hazard sources identification, hazard sources grouping and hazards formulation. The main goal of this article was to provide hazard identification process results as hazard specifications, which include: a group of hazard sources, hazards formulation and the most probable/predictable consequences, severities and losses/harms of the hazard activation.
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Kasperson, Roger E., and K. David Pijawka. "Societal Response to Hazards and Major Hazard Events: Comparing Natural and Technological Hazards." Public Administration Review 45 (January 1985): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3134993.
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Bang, Henry Ngenyam. "A Concise Appraisal of Cameroon’s Hazard Risk Profile: Multi-Hazard Inventories, Causes, Consequences and Implications for Disaster Management." GeoHazards 3, no. 1 (February 11, 2022): 55–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geohazards3010004.
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The paucity of a comprehensive document on Cameroon’s hazard/disaster risk profile is a limitation to the country wide risk assessment and adequate disaster resilience. This article narrows this gap by retrospectively exploring Cameroon’s hazard/disaster profile. This has been achieved through an investigative approach that applies a set of qualitative methods to derive and articulate an inventory and analysis of hazards/disasters in Cameroon. The findings indicate that Cameroon has a wide array and high incidence/frequency of hazards that have had devastating consequences. The hazards have been structured along four profiles: a classification of all hazard types plaguing Cameroon into natural, potentially socio-natural, technological, and social and anthropogenic hazards; occurrence/origin of the hazards; their impacts/effects to the ‘at risk’ communities/populace and potential disaster management or mitigation measures. In-depth analysis indicate that natural hazards have the lowest frequency but the potential to cause the highest fatalities in a single incident; potentially socio-natural hazards affect the largest number of people and the widest geographical areas, technological hazards have the highest frequency of occurrence; while social/anthropogenic hazards are the newest in the country but have caused the highest population displacement. Arguably, the multi-hazard/disaster inventory presented in this article serves as a vital preliminary step to a more comprehensive profile of Cameroon’s disaster risk profile.
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Hu, Q., Y. Zhou, S. X. Wang, F. T. Wang, and H. J. Wang. "FRACTAL-BASED SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS AND MEASUREMENT OF SPATIAL ASSOCIATION WITH HAZARD-RELATED PREDISPOSING FACTORS." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLII-3/W10 (February 7, 2020): 125–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xlii-3-w10-125-2020.
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Abstract. Fractal model as an effective solution to complex nonlinear problems or phenomena has been widely used to describe such complicated phenomenon as geological hazards. Quantitative analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of geological hazards and measuring its fractal relation on a national scale are significant for the geological hazards prevention or mitigation. In this contribution, firstly, three typical geological hazards, such as landslides, collapses and mudslides, were taken as research objects for fractal analysis, and a detailed hazard inventory including 109,008 landslides, 55,178 collapses, and 28,914 mudslides cases were compiled as data samples. Next, the fractal dimensions describing the spatial distribution characteristics of geological hazard densities were calculated by the invariant fractal model, and then the internal classification of five common predisposing factors (elevation, slope, aspect, NDVI, and precipitation) was applied, and the relative density of geological hazard was calculated by the ratio of "hazard ratio" and "grid ratio" on the basis of 1 km × 1 km grid cells. Finally, the variable fractal model was introduced for measuring the spatial association among three typical geological hazards and five common predisposing factors, and the obtained fractal dimensions were regarded as the quantitative measure of the effect of predisposing factors on geological hazards. The results shows that the fractal dimensions of spatial distribution of landslide, collapse and mudslide densities are 1.3042, 1.5185 and 1.5897, respectively. Moreover, the relative densities of geological hazards also follows the fractal features with hazard-related predisposing factors, the elevation factor has the greatest impact on the landslide, collapse, and mudslide hazard, while other predisposing factors have different effects on different types of geological hazards.
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Brannath, Werner, Matthias Brückner, Meinhard Kieser, and Geraldine Rauch. "The Average Hazard Ratio – A Good Effect Measure for Time-to-event Endpoints when the Proportional Hazard Assumption is Violated?" Methods of Information in Medicine 57, no. 03 (May 2018): 089–100. http://dx.doi.org/10.3414/me17-01-0058.
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Summary Background: In many clinical trial applications, the endpoint of interest corresponds to a time-to-event endpoint. In this case, group differences are usually expressed by the hazard ratio. Group differences are commonly assessed by the logrank test, which is optimal under the proportional hazard assumption. However, there are many situations in which this assumption is violated. Especially in applications were a full population and several subgroups or a composite time-to-first-event endpoint and several components are considered, the proportional hazard assumption usually does not simultaneously hold true for all test problems under investigation. As an alternative effect measure, Kalbfleisch and Prentice proposed the so-called ‘average hazard ratio’. The average hazard ratio is based on a flexible weighting function to modify the influence of time and has a meaningful interpretation even in the case of non-proportional hazards. Despite this favorable property, it is hardly ever used in practice, whereas the standard hazard ratio is commonly reported in clinical trials regardless of whether the proportional hazard assumption holds true or not. Objectives: There exist two main approaches to construct corresponding estimators and tests for the average hazard ratio where the first relies on weighted Cox regression and the second on a simple plug-in estimator. The aim of this work is to give a systematic comparison of these two approaches and the standard logrank test for different time-toevent settings with proportional and nonproportional hazards and to illustrate the pros and cons in application. Methods: We conduct a systematic comparative study based on Monte-Carlo simulations and by a real clinical trial example. Results: Our results suggest that the properties of the average hazard ratio depend on the underlying weighting function. The two approaches to construct estimators and related tests show very similar performance for adequately chosen weights. In general, the average hazard ratio defines a more valid effect measure than the standard hazard ratio under non-proportional hazards and the corresponding tests provide a power advantage over the common logrank test. Conclusions: As non-proportional hazards are often met in clinical practice and the average hazard ratio tests often outperform the common logrank test, this approach should be used more routinely in applications.