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1
Baussola, Maurizio. "Technological change, diffusion and output growth." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1999. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/58594/.
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The thesis presents a critical review of both traditional and new growth models emphasising their main implications and points of controversy. Three main research directions have been followed, refining hypothesis advanced in the sixties. We first find models which follow the learning by doing hypothesis and therefore consider knowledge embodied in physical capital. The second class of models incorporate knowledge within human capital while the third approach considers knowledge as generated by the research sector which sells designs to the manufacturing sector producing capital goods. A typical outcome of such models is the existence of externalities which causes divergence between market and socially optimal equilibria. Policy intervention aimed at subsidising either human capital or physical capital is thus justified. Empirical analysis has received new impetus from the theoretical debate. However, past empirical tests are mainly based on heterogeneous cross section data which take into account mean growth rates over given periods of time, and ignore pure time series analysis. On empirical grounds, the role of investment in the growth process has been emphasised. This variable has also been decomposed to consider the impact of machinery and equipment investment alone. In this thesis we have underlined six aspects of endogenous growth models, which in our opinion reflect the main points of controversy: i) scale effects; ii) the treatment of knowledge as a production input; iii) the role of institutions; iv) the empirical controversy dealing with the robustness of growth regression estimates and the measurement of the impact of some crucial variables (e.g., investment) on growth; v) the simplified representation of R&D; vi) the absence of any discussion of diffusion phenomena. We then propose a new version of an R&D endogenous growth model, which explicitly incorporates the diffusion of innovations and permits comparison with results derived from other models which do not consider the diffusion process. In this new model the interaction between the sector producing final output and the sector producing capital goods generates the time path of diffusion and hence the growth rate of the economy. In this new model there is a clear growth effect of a change in the interest rate. Such a change, on the one hand, affects the determination of the value of human capital in research, and, on the other hand, affects the diffusion path of new producer durables. This is important for policy because policy aimed at stimulating growth may be mainly concerned with reductions of the interest rate and will thus cause a higher allocation to human capital in research and a larger supply (and use) of new intermediate goods. In addition, there is another clear growth effect which derives from changes in the parameter which defines the diffusion path of new capital goods. An increase in the value of this parameter again causes an increase in human capital devoted to research and an upward shift of the diffusion path, thus increasing the long-run growth rate. This result underlines the difference with previous R&D endogenous growth models in that we now have a clear distinction between the sectors producing and using new capital goods. The empirical implications of the theoretical models are then investigated by testing the causal link between R&D and investment, on the one hand, and output growth and investment on the other hand. Indeed, a crucial task of any empirical investigation dealing with endogenous growth theories is to explain the nature of the links between industrial research, investment and economic growth. There is much room for study in this framework, as there are still only a few studies analysing these relationships. Our analysis deals with both aggregate data for the US and UK economies and an intersectoral analysis for the US manufacturing sector. We have used a test procedure which allows us to analyse both the short-run and the long-run properties of the variables using cointegration techniques. We are able to test for any feedback between these variables, thus giving more detailed and robust evidence on the forces underlying the growth process. The results suggests that R&D Granger causes investment in machinery and equipment only in the US economy. However, there is evidence of long-run feed-back implying that investment may also affect R&D. In the UK economy there is no evidence for R&D causing investment nor is there strong evidence of long-run feed-back between the two variables. This suggests that the causal link between R&D and investment may not be thought of as a stylised fact in industrialised economies. We have also analysed the relationship between investment and output growth to test whether investment may be considered as the key factor in the growth process. We find little support for the hypothesis that investment has a long-run effect on growth. In addition, causality tests support bi-directional causality between these variables in the US economy while in the UK economy, output growth causes investment both in the shortrun and in the long-run.
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Savoie, Charles. "Input-output analysis and growth theory." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2017. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:df6791d1-39b2-478f-9682-957f46b3defb.
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This thesis studies a theory for the amplification of technological improvement by the production network structure of the economy. The theory is motivated by the idea that, to the extent that inputs and outputs of industries form a chain, improvements are passed down the chain and accumulate multiplicatively. Under a simple model for technological improvement it is possible to compute the overall improvement factor for the general case where the production network has a complicated structure containing cycles. We call this the trophic depth by analogy with ecology. This leads to testable predictions about GDP growth and its variance. We analyse data for 40 countries and 35 industries from 1995 to 2009 and demonstrate that trophic depths are strongly correlated with economic growth. A regression of GDP growth of countries against their trophic depths has a highly statistically significant R-squared equal to 0.38, and when other standard explanatory variables are added to the regression, the trophic depth remains a robust and statistically significant contributor. We perform some statistical analysis to understand the evolution of trophic depths at different stage of the economic development. We identify two growth paths. Along the first growth path, countries are catching up frontier economies while along the second growth path countries are falling behind. This approach allows us to make some forecasts about the evolution of trophic depths and of the wealth of countries. This provides a comprehensive framework to understand the acceleration and deceleration of economic growth. Then, we study another type of technological progress that corresponds to the adoption of new goods in the production chain. This mechanism is related to the dynamic of the production network and for this purpose we perform a link prediction analysis to determine some key factors for new adoptions. Finally, we analyse the relation between stock return comovement and institutional preferences across stocks of various size. A growing literature highlights the role of investors' common asset holdings on market dynamics. While previous studies focused on large stocks we also include small stocks in the sample in order to acknowledge the shift in institutional preferences towards small stocks over the last decades. Moreover, we add the input-output linkages between firms from different industries to our set of explanatory variables.
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Alliwa, Maher. "Modelling inflation, output growth and their uncertainties." Thesis, Brunel University, 2016. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.707765.
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This thesis consists of three studies that cover topics in inflation and output growth, and their uncertainties in G7 and developing countries. We utilise the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Industrial Price Index (IPI) as proxies for the inflation rate (price level) and the growth rate (output), respectively. Chapter 2 considers the case of three developing countries Turkey, Egypt and Syria. We analyse the inflation and growth using asymmetric PGARCH model. In accordance with this, we estimate all the models using two alternative distributions the normal and Student’s t. Moreover, dummy variables are chosen in the inflation data according to some economic events in Turkey, Egypt and Syria. Even more, the mean equation is adjusted to include these dummy variables on the intercept. To summarize, the results show an evidence of the Cukierman–Meltzer (1986) hypothesis, which is labelled as the ‘opportunistic Fed’ by Grier and Perry (1998), in Egypt and Syria. On the other hand, an evidence of the Holland (1995) hypothesis is obtained in Turkey, this result suggests that the ‘stabilizing Fed’ notion is plausible. Moreover, an evidence for the first leg of Friedman (1977) hypothesis is obtained in Egypt and Turkey. Chapter 3 examines the causal relationship between inflation and output growth, and their variabilities for G7 countries by applying the bivariate constant conditional correlation CCC – GARCH (1,1)-ML models. Moreover, we employ the models including dummy variables in the mean equations to investigate the impact of economic events on inflation and output. Briefly, there are evidences of the second leg of Friedman (1977) hypothesis in the US, UK, Germany, Italy, France and Canada while there is an evidence of Dotsey and Sarte (2000) in Japan. In addition, there are evidences for positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation in the US, Germany, Japan and France in line of Cukierman and Meltzer (1986) hypothesis. Moreover, the results of estimation CCC-GARCH (1,1) in mean models including dummy variables highlight a strong support for the two legs of Friedman (1977) hypothesis and Cukierman and Meltzer (1986). Lastly, Chapter 4 is based on examining the inflation rates for three developing countries Turkey, Syria and Egypt by applying the Bai and Perron (2003) breakpoint specification technique in the monthly inflation data of our sample. As a result, three possible break points for each of the inflation rates in the conditional variance have been determined. In addition, we employ GARCH model to control the breaks in the conditional mean and variance equations. To conclude, the autoregressive coefficients seem to cause a statistically significant impact on the breaks only in the case of Turkey, also, the parameters of the mean equation show time varying characteristics across three breaks. As far as the conditional variance is concerned the ARCH parameter (?) shows no time varying behaviour while for the GARCH parameter only one significant break seems to impact the inflation rate in Syria.
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Alava, Mónica Hernández. "Growth dynamics : an empirical investigation of output growth using international data." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/30140.
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The rates of growth of output per head vary across countries. Despite the fact that these differences are of a small order of magnitude, they would translate into large differences in the average living standards of the countries if they were to persist over the years. It is therefore very important to understand the process of long run growth and as a consequence many recent studies concentrate on the issue of cross country convergence. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the process of growth across countries and the possibility of inter-relationships of these processes across countries. To this avail, an empirical analysis of per capita output across countries out first using the exact continuous time version of two neoclassical growth models, the Solow growth model and The Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model. Results show that when these models are estimated consistently countries do not seem to be converging in the sense typically used in the literature. The rest of the thesis aims to investigate in more detail the processes by which growth in different countries might be related. Based on extensions of another neoclassical model, the Overlapping Generations model, and using a nonlinear switching regime model for estimation, two empirical analyses are carried out. The first one examines the role of balance of payments constraints in cross country growth determination. The second studies the extent of technology spillovers across countries and their effect on the process of growth. On one hand, results reveal little evidence of current account deficits constraining growth in the long run in the G7 countries although there is ample evidence of an influence in the short run dynamics of growth. On the other hand, spillovers of technology across the G7 countries are found to be of importance in the process of growth.
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Jouan, Jean Karl. "Financial liberalisation in Mauritius and the finance-growth nexus." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2005. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/3598.
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The purpose of the thesis is to explore the empirical relevance of the theory of financial liberalisation in the Mauritian context. After confronting the conflicting views in the literature, the changes that have taken place in the financial sector in terms of monetary policy and the institutional developments are examined. The study shows that government has played a role in boosting financial intermediation before liberalisation and that it has still a role to play after liberalisation. It also explains the measuresta ken to improve financial stability. The high concentration in both the banking and insurance sectors are also discussed. The thesis finds no evidence of an increase in real interest rate after liberalisation or any consequential improvement in domestic savings as suggested by the liberalisation theories. Further external liberalisation has not led to a drop in real interest rate and increased savings. Some minor episodes of banking and stock market crises have been identified. The research also examines the links between interest spread after liberalisation, fund cost and market share and the results tend to support the proposition that there is unidirectional causality from market share to interest spread. No significant change in share market size, liquidity and activity has been observed after liberalisation and the collective investment schemes have not yet indicated signs of ability to considerably mobilize savings and hence to boost the security market. There is evidence of a slow down of the financial deepening process as the liquidity ratio M2 Y exceeds 65%. Financial deepening is not found to be positively i related to real interest rate. This applies not only to Mauritius but equally to some other countries of the region. Although the evidence does not support the McKinnon and Shaw predictions concerning interest rate and mobilization of savings, yet there has been freer access to credit after liberalisation and the study has shown that private sector credit as a share of GDP is positively related to economic growth and that there is bidirectional causality between them. With respect to corporate financing the study shows that the behaviour of listed firins is consistent with the pecking order theory of finance and that the listed companies are now more sensitive to external financing for the acquisition of physical investment, in relation to their internal growth strategy.
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Drewett, Thoams Ashley. "The growth and quality of UK grown Douglas-fir." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2015. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/9163.
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Timber is a local, sustainable and valuable building material, but it is highly variable compared to other building materials (e.g. concrete, steel). The quality of wood is its suitability for the end-user, in this case the construction industry (via timber processors). Douglas-fir is a tall conifer capable of producing high construction grade timber. Native to the north-western Pacific regions of America and Canada, Douglas-fir was introduced to the UK in 1827. After World War 1, the planting of conifers greatly increased due to the establishment of the Forestry Commission. Despite being a high value timber crop in North America, Douglas-fir was not highly utilised in Great Britain due to a perceived lack of suitable growing sites (requiring nutrient-rich soil) and a lack of knowledge on its qualities (mechanical). Consequently, it still to this day covers a relatively small amount of the total UK conifer plantation area, but under predicted climate change projections an increased range of sites will become more suitable for Douglasfir, thus investigation now is imperative. To investigate the quality of Douglas-fir timber and its biological variation, a variety of sites were sampled in Scotland and Wales. The variation in the physical and mechanical properties of UK-grown Douglas-fir were investigated to determine how strength and stiffness of Douglas-fir compares to other commercially important timber species in the UK (as well as compared to Douglas-fir grown in different countries). Standing and felled tree measurements relating to tree architecture and important for timber volume (e.g. size, height, branching habits and taper) were collected in the forest. This was followed by laboratory testing of wood samples obtained from those trees to determine important raw material properties. Ultimately this will enable some explanation and prediction of the variation in mechanical and physical properties in Douglas-fir. It was found that Douglas-fir is stronger, stiffer and denser than the UK's most planted conifer, Sitka spruce. Wood adjacent to the pith (middle of tree) termed as juvenile was weaker, less stiff and less dense. Within-tree variation accounted for most of the variation for the key properties of strength, stiffness and density. It was possible to build models for some of these properties based on cambial age (ring number from the pith). Considering branches, it was found that within-tree variation in size, frequency, angle and status (alive or dead) were highly variable but it was possible to build empirical models to describe branch architecture for a typical tree. It was possible to measure the rate of swelling in oven dry Douglas-fir in the radial and tangential dimensions, but swelling of the longitudinal dimension was below the limit of detection for the apparatus. Heartwood area can be successfully predicted from the diameter of tree at a given point. It is hoped the information in this study will detail some characteristic Douglas-fir traits that may be deemed beneficial for the timber construction industry and allow understanding of its variability plus provide important models to use in helping to describe Great Britain's forest resource.
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Badinger, Harald. "Cyclical Expenditure Policy, Output Volatility, and Economic Growth." Taylor & Francis, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3029/1/Manuscript.pdf.
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This paper provides a comprehensive empirical assessment of the relation between the cyclicality of fiscal expenditure policy, output volatility, and economic growth, using a large cross-section of 88 countries over the period 1960 to 2004. Identification of the effects of (endogenous) cyclical expenditure policy is achieved by exploiting the exogeneity of countries political and institutional characteristics, which we find to be relevant determinants of the cyclicality of expenditures. There are three main results: First, both pro- and countercyclical expenditure policy amplify output volatility, much in a way like pure fiscal shocks that are unrelated to the cycle. Second, output volatility, due to variations in cyclical and discretionary fiscal policy, is negatively associated with economic growth. Third, there is no direct effect of cyclicality on economic growth other than through output volatility. These findings advocate the introduction of fiscal rules that limit the use of (discretionary and) cyclical fiscal (expenditure) policy to improve growth performance by reducing volatility. (author's abstract)
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Ogbonna, Donatus. "Impact of bank funding on the growth of Nigeria's manufacturing sector." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2018. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/1516539.
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Several studies and theories have linked economic growth to finance and further posit that a well funded and supported manufacturing sector could transform the economic fortunes of nations. However, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has complained of paucity and unfavourable terms of funding from the Nigerian banks. This study is motivated by the concerns of the industry stakeholders on the need to evaluate the contributions of bank funding on economic growth of Nigeria. Therefore the main aim of the study is to investigate the impact of bank funding on the growth of Nigeria's manufacturing sector. To achieve this aim, the objectives of the study are to contribute to knowledge and practice, examine causality relationship in the funding-growth nexus and assess the impact of bank funding on the growth of the nation's manufacturing sector. Others are to identify factors that affect bank lending to the manufacturers and make recommendations that can improve lending practice. The research is anchored on the endogenous growth theory and underpinned by the realist philosophical paradigm thereby employing both qualitative and quantitative approaches in data seeking, gathering and analysis. The study identified the lending banks, the regulators and the manufacturers as the three majorstakeholders and administered structured questionnaires on 227 bank operators and 213 manufacturers covering the six identified domains of factors that affect bank funding. The causality and impact tests established that there is a bidirectional relationship between bank funding and manufacturing sector growth and the impact of bank funding is with a lapse of time while the impacts of interest and inflation rates are immediate. Factor analysis of stakeholders'responses confirmed this result and further revealed that weak publicinfrastructure, insurgencies, harsh fiscal and monetary policies adversely affect manufacturers' growth. The findings of this study shall help stakeholders have a better understanding of the issues militating against improved bank funding and challenges of the manufacturers towards achieving economic growth in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that for the economy to tap from the growth enhancing potentials of the manufacturing sector, it is essential to adopt policy measures favourable to the banking and manufacturing sectors. The government should create enabling business environment with special single-digit interestmanufacturing sector intervention fund, provision of stable power and infrastructure for the sectors, and maintain stable exchange rate regime that makes foreign exchange available to the manufacturers. This work covers data from 1987 to 2015 and limited to bank lending as the source of funding to manufacturers. Further studies could extend the period, funding sources, sectors and even territorial coverage.
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Bhuvapanich, Sasipen. "Regional Disparity of Output and Income Growth in Thailand." Graduate School of International Development,Nagoya University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7300.
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Zhang, Congshan (Stuart). "An investigation of the key market growth factors for golf development in China as a recreation and luxury product." Thesis, Edinburgh Napier University, 2014. http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/7569.
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The aim of this research is to investigate the key market growth factors for golf development in China as a recreation and luxury product. After nearly 30 years of development, China now has the largest golf complex in the world and the golf market in China is growing at its fastest pace for recent years (Verot, 2013). Due to rapid economic growth and the emergence of a large number of wealthy people, it has been argued that the consumption of luxury and recreational products will increase. Practically, there is evidence to suggest that golfing in China is being developed as both recreational product and luxury product. However, little research has been carried out to answer the question why a foreign game could develop so robustly, and the key factors that have contributed to its growth in relation to its unique features. Moreover, golf development in China is taking place within an increasingly complicated environment, which necessitates strategic adjustments in golf and related businesses for sustained growth. After examining existing literature, this research proposed the theoretical framework, which identifies the relationship among golf industry, features and potential factors. To test the hypotheses generated from the theoretical framework and to enrich the argument a pragmatic methodology is adopted, which involve both positivist and interpretivist approaches. Therefore, both questionnaire and in-depth interview methods are applied in this research to reach the requirement of both broadness and depth. The questionnaire was distributed to 230 golf course managers in China, and 213 valid responses were collected. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were carried out and the quantitative findings were complemented by evidence from interviews with 5 experienced golf course managers who have worked in several golf courses around China. The theoretical framework is tested through designed research and suggests that when considering golf as a recreation and luxury product, the economic factor is the key market growth factor in China. The in-depth interviews supported this finding and further suggested that the cultural factor is also significant for golf development. Moreover, the interviews also provided comprehensive information about how political, economic, cultural, technological, geographic and environmental factor are influencing current and future golf development. Accordingly, golf business should adjust their practices to their external environment. Using the political factor as an example, golf industry has the capacity to influence the factor to their advantage. The golf industry could project a positive image that golf development will not harm the natural environment if the maintenance procedures are appropriated. Furthermore, the golf industry should launch information campaigns and lobby the government to demonstrate that the concern from public is unnecessary. The findings of this study presented implications for academic literature and the golf industry. From the academic perspective, this research tested theories from existing literature in the field of golf development in China. Meanwhile, this research provides the framework for research in a related area in the future. Furthermore, this study highlighted a new niche subject of academic study, the luxury recreational sector that encompasses luxury experiences and recreation specialisation. For the golf industry in China, the framework provided by this research will help practitioners to understand their external business environment and implement innovative strategies. The information revealed by the framework will also help potential international investors to develop better strategies to gain access to the Chinese market.
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Fraenkel, Jonathan. "Growth and slowdown : profitability, capital and output in Britain 1873-1973." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361299.
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The thesis looks at trends in British economic growth, capital accumulation and profitability from 1873 to 1973. It divides into three parts. The first considers the historical origins of modem growth theory, and provides a critique of Neoclassical 'marginal productivity' categories. The second investigates the concepts underlying national accounting estimation of 'output', 'capital' and 'profit', and offers an alternative estimate of long-run capital outlay/GDP ratios, and the rate of return, for the British economy after 1873. The third part breaks the period down into three consecutive phases; 1873-1914, the interwar years and the post-1945 period up to 1973. It looks first at the controversy surrounding the 'Great Depression, 1873- 96', and the view that a 'climacteric' is better located in the Edwardian era, arguing that trends in profits and prices, not output and employment, marked out the former period as depressed. The chapter on the interwar years highlights the deceleration in capital outlay dating from the Edwardian era, and views the 1930s recovery as predicated upon a restoration of profitability, rather than a 'Keynesian' expansion of aggregate demand. In the penultimate chapter, the GDP acceleration witnessed during the 1950s and 1960s is linked, neither to Keynesian 'multiplier' effects of increased state expenditure nor to a spontaneous working out of market-driven technological influences. Instead, the trans-World War Two rise in the rate of return provided the catalyst for high GDP growth in the early 1950s, while key institutional transformations enabled continuity of the 'Golden Age' during the 1960s, despite diminishing rates of return to capital.
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Moll, Terence Clive. "Output and productivity trends in South Africa : apartheid and economic growth." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.359403.
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Abeng, Magnus O. "Oil price uncertainty, sectoral stock returns and output growth in Nigeria." Thesis, University of Surrey, 2018. http://epubs.surrey.ac.uk/845835/.
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This thesis examines the influence of oil price uncertainty shocks on sector stock return uncertainties and real output and provides new insights on how oil price uncertainty impulses are transmitted to the Nigerian macroeconomy. Five industry sectors namely banking, oil and gas, insurance, food beverages and tobacco, and consumer goods are investigated. The major contributions of this thesis include the decomposition of the effect of oil price change into sector stocks, application of second moment analysis, utilisation of high frequency micro-data and adoption of more than one econometric methodology. This deviates markedly from previous studies and unveils critical decision making information that was hitherto subsumed under the conventional macro-analysis approach. Three themes are examined for Nigeria using the multifactor model and the structural vector autoregressive framework. The first focuses on estimating sector stock returns sensitivity to oil price changes; the second analyses the effect of oil price uncertainty shocks on sector stock returns uncertainty, while the third assesses the effect of oil price uncertainty shocks on output growth. Significant policy issues include the overwhelming consequence of the oil price factor, the industry-wide negative effect of exchange rate and the near neutrality of interest rate effect. Evidence of price and exchange rate puzzles are clearly demonstrated. Though this poses a serious threat to the effective conduct of monetary policy in achieving the price and monetary stability mandate, they however, serve as potent tools for economic agents’ portfolio selection and management of investment risks. Suggested policy direction includes monitoring oil price movements, ensuring a stable foreign exchange market, and the removal of structural rigidities such as infrastructural bottlenecks and fuel subsidy programme. This would eliminate the perceived impediments to the effective conduct and implementation of monetary policy as well as enhance the seamless transmission of policy impulses to the economy.
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Tongo, Yanga. "Financial sector development and sectoral output growth evidence from South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002739.
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The goal of the study is to examine the relationship between financial sector development and output growth in the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. The analysis is based on the hypothesis that financial development is essential for promoting production growth in an economy. To test the hypothesis, in the South African context, the vector autoregressive model (VAR) framework and Granger causality test are applied to a quarterly data set starting from 1970 quarter one to 2009 quarter four. The results suggest that financial intermediary development (bank based measure) and stock market development (market based measure) have a positive impact on output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. There is evidence of a one way causal relationship between financial sector development and sectoral output growth. Particularly, there is evidence that financial intermediary development and stock market development causes output growth in the agriculture, mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. However, there is no evidence showing causality running from sectoral output growth to financial sector development. The results provide evidence supporting the theory which states that financial development is essential to promote output growth in a country i.e. in our case South Africa. Thus an efficient financial system which promotes efficient channeling of resources towards the agricultural, mining and manufacturing sectors should be built.
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Fabiani, Silvia. "Technological change and output fluctuations : an empirical analysis for the G7 countries." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1996. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.313897.
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Javed, Yielmaz. "Economic Impact of Natural Disasters : Tracking the Medium-Short term Growth Time Path in Asian Countries." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Economics, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-12743.
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Past decades have witnessed evidence to large-scale upheaval caused by natural disasters. Thus, there is a need for determination of mechanisms through which natural disasters may influence growth, especially for developing countries. This paper traces the medium-short run time path of agricultural and industrial output growth response to four types of disasters in Southern and Southeastern Asian countries. Disasters considered are floods, droughts, storms and earthquakes. The empirical results suggest heterogeneous effects for disasters as well as different economic sectors. In many cases disaster impact was delayed. Generally speaking, floods and droughts have a stronger effect while earthquakes and storms have a weaker one on disaggregated output growth. Floods have a predominantly posi-tive effect while droughts have a negative one on both agricultural and industrial sectors. Storms seem to show a stronger negative effect in the agricultural sector than in industrial sector hinting at existence of short lived indirect effects. Earth-quakes, on the other hand, presented ambiguous growth responses.
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Rodríguez, Pardina Martín Augusto. "Growth and structural change in Argentina 1953-1984 : an input-output analysis." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.625099.
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Ragacs, Christian, Thomas Steinberger, and Martin Zagler. "Growth theories and the persistence of output fluctuations. The case of Austria." Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 1998. http://epub.wu.ac.at/212/1/document.pdf.
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The paper analyses the degree of output persistence in GDP in order to empirically discriminate between the Solow growth model, the perfect competition endogenous growth model, the imperfect competition endogenous growth model, and the subcase of a multiple equilibria model of endogenous growth for the case of Austria. We find that a temporary shock in the growth rate of output induces a permanent and larger effect on the level of GDP. This leads us to refute the Solow growth model and the perfect competition model. We find strong empirical support for the imperfect competition growth model, but cannot fully rule out the possibility of multiple equilibria growth rates.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Liu, Xinman. "Trade linkages and growth in South Africa: an SVAR analysis." Master's thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. https://hdl.handle.net/11427/31614.
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This paper investigates the vulnerability of South Africa to the shocks that originate from its major trading partners over time using a structural vector autoregressive framework. We examine the impact of shocks emanating from the EU, the US, China, Japan, India and Brazil on South Africa’s output growth through both direct and indirect trade linkages, by considering the changing trade patterns from 1996 to 2017. The results suggest that the South African economy has become more integrated with emerging economies. Furthermore, China has increased its impact on the output growth of the other sample economies through trade linkages, which implies that developments in China are of increasing importance to other economies. The US and the EU are still dominated in propagating shocks despite their declining impact on the output growth of other economies in this sample.
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Enocksson, David. "Forecasting Swedish Output Growth: : An Empirical Comparison of MIDAS Regressions and theRAMSES Model." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-195873.
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This thesis compares MIDAS regressions, introduced in Ghysels, Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2002), to the RAMSES model, used by the Riksbank,in forecasting Swedish quarterly output growth (GDP). Using Swedish GPDdata from 1993Q1 and onwards, we compare forecasts for the period 2010Q1to 2011Q4, and we show that for longer forecast horizons (commonly usedby the Riksbank for monetary policy decisions), such as two and three yearsahead in time, the MIDAS regressions clearly outperforms the RAMSESmodel. For shorter horizons the results are not conclusive.KEYWORDS: MIDAS, GDP, forecasting, Sveriges Riksbank
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Ng, Kar Wei. "Enhancements in light output power by MOCVD patterned growth and in situ roughening /." View abstract or full-text, 2007. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?ECED%202007%20NG.
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Angjellari-Dajci, Fjorentina. "Output performance, institutions and structural policy reforms for transition economies." Diss., Manhattan, Kan. : Kansas State University, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/2097/86.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos, and Harald Badinger. "Economic growth, volatility, and cross-country spillovers: new evidence for the G7 countries." Elsevier, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.035.
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This study examines the linkages between output growth and output volatility in the G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2013M8. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) we find that: i) output growth and volatility are highly intertwined; ii) spillovers have reached unprecedented levels during the global financial crisis; and iii) the US has been the largest transmitter of growth and volatility shocks. Generalized impulse response analyses suggest moderate growth spillovers and sizable volatility spillovers across countries. Cross-variable effects indicate that volatility shocks lead to lower growth, while growth shocks reduce output volatility.
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Berglund, Mårten. "Green growth? A consumption perspective on Swedish environmental impact trends using input–output analysis." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Globala energisystem, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-157800.
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Consumption-based environmental impact trends for the Swedish economy have been generated and analysed in order to determine their levels compared to official production-based data, and to determine whether or not the Swedish economy has decoupled growth in domestic final demand from worldwide environmental impact. Three energy resources (oil, coal and gas use, as well as their aggregate fossil fuel use) and seven emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC, as well as the aggregate CO2 equivalents) were studied. An augmented single-regional input–output model has been deployed, with world average energy and emission intensities used for products produced abroad. A new method for updating input–output tables for years missing official input–output tables, was also developed. For each of the resources and the emissions, two time series were generated based on two different revisions of Swedish national accounts data, one for the period 1993–2003, the other for the period 2000–2005. The analysis uses a recently revised time series of environmental data from the Swedish environmental accounts, as well as recently published global environmental data from the IEA and from the EDGAR emissions database (all data from 2010 or later). An index decomposition analysis was also performed to detect the various components of the time series. For fossil fuels consumption-based data don't differ much from production-based data in total. For the greenhouse gases there is a clear increase (CO2eq emissions increase approximately 20 % from 1993–2005, mainly driven by an increase in CH4 emissions), resulting from increased emissions abroad due to the increased demand for imported products. This suggests Sweden has not decoupled economic growth from increasing greenhouse gas emissions – contrary to what the slightly decreasing official production-based UNFCCC data say. For the precursor gases (SO2, NOx, CO and NMVOC), emissions are generally decreasing, with the exception of SO2 and NOx which increase in the second time series. For all emissions studied, consumption-based data lie at much higher levels than the official production-based UNFCCC data. However, further research is needed regarding the resolution of the data of the energy use and the emissions generated abroad by the Swedish domestic final demand. Also, extension of the time series and of the environmental parameters to such things as material use is needed to find out with more certainty to what extent Swedish growth has been sustainable or not.I den här studien har konsumtionsbaserade tidsserier på svensk fossilbränsleanvändning och på svenska utsläpp av luftföroreningar tagits fram i avsikt att jämföra dessa med de officiella produktionsbaserade tidsserierna. Syftet har varit att avgöra om det svenska samhällets påverkan på resurser och miljö ur ett konsumtionsperspektiv har minskat eller ökat över tiden, och framförallt om en frikoppling har skett mellan den svenska ekonomiska tillväxten och den påverkan Sverige har på miljön i Sverige och utomlands. Tre fossila bränslen (olja, kol, gas samt aggregatet fossila bränslen) och sju luftföroreningar (CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO och NMVOC samt aggregatet CO2-ekvivalenter) har analyserats. En enkelregional input–output-modell har tagits fram, utökad med globala medelintensiteter för den produktion som sker utanför Sverige. En ny metod har också utvecklats för att generera input–output-tabeller för år där officiella sådana tabeller saknas. För samtliga energiresurser och luftföroreningar, upprättades två stycken tidsserier, baserat på två olika revisioner av ekonomiska data från nationalräkenskaperna. Den första tidsserien täcker åren 1993–2003, och den andra åren 2000–2005. Miljödata togs från nyligen reviderade tidsserier från de svenska miljöräkenskaperna samt från IEA och den internationella luftföroreningsdatabasen EDGAR (alla data reviderade 2010 eller senare). En komponentanalys utfördes också, för att identifiera olika bidragande komponenter i tidsserierna. Vad gäller fossila bränslen i sin helhet, uppstår ingen markant skillnad mellan konsumtionsbaserade och produktionsbaserade data. Vad gäller växthusgaserna kan en klar ökning urskiljas (20 procents ökning av CO2-ekvivalenter mellan 1993–2005; CH4-utsläppen har där bidragit mest), vilket beror på stigande utsläpp utomlands orsakade av ökad efterfrågan på importerade produkter. Detta antyder att den svenska tillväxten ännu inte frikopplats från ökade utsläpp av växthusgaser, vilket står i motsats till den minskning i utsläpp som de officiella produktionsbaserade siffrorna från UNFCCC-rapporteringen redovisar. För övriga luftföroreningar (SO2, NOx, CO och NMVOC), sker i allmänhet en minskning, förutom för SO2 och NOx som ökar i den andra tidsserien. Samtliga luftföroreningar ligger vidare på en betydligt högre nivå jämfört med UNFCCC-rapporteringen. Mer detaljerade studier behövs dock på den energiförbrukning och de utsläpp som svensk slutlig användning för med sig utomlands. Tidsserierna behöver också förlängas och fler miljövariabler som t.ex. materialanvändningen behöver studeras för att kunna dra säkrare slutsatser kring i vilken utsträckning som den svenska tillväxten har varit hållbar eller ej.
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Park, Yeong-Chun. "The level and variability of inflation, output growth and money : cross-section empirical analysis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1996. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9821335.
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Antonakakis, Nikolaos, and Harald Badinger. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries." WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2012. http://epub.wu.ac.at/3533/1/wp141.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
This paper considers the linkages between output growth and output volatility for the
sample of G7 countries over the period 1958M2-2011M7, thereby paying particular attention
to spillovers within and between countries. Using the VAR-based spillover index approach by
Diebold and Yilmaz (2012), we identify several empirical regularities: i) output growth and
volatility are highly intertwined, with spillovers taking place into all four directions; ii) the
importance of spillovers has increased after the mid 1980s and reached unprecedented levels
during the recent financial and economic crisis; iii) the US has been the largest transmitter
of output and volatility shocks to other countries. Generalized impulse response analyses
point to moderate growth-growth spillovers and sizable volatility-volatility spillovers across
countries, suggesting that volatility shocks quintuplicate in the long run. The cross-variable
effects turn out negative: volatilty shocks lead to lower economic growth, growth shocks
tend to reduce output volatility. Our findings underline the increased vulnerability of the G7
countries to destabilizing shocks and their detrimental effects on economic growth, which are
sizeably amplified through international spillover effects and the associated repercussions.Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series
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Li, Bin. "An application of multiregional extended input-output modelling in a developing country : the case of Taiwan." Thesis, University of Liverpool, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.367241.
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Mwanawina, Inyambo. "An input-output and econometric approach to analysing structural change and growth strategies in the Zambian economy." Konstanz : Hartung-Gorre, 1990. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/25009094.html.
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Mbiti, Titus Kivaa Peter, and tkivaap@yahoo com. "A System Dynamics Model of Construction Output in Kenya." RMIT University. Property Construction & Project Management, 2008. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20081211.160910.
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This study investigates fluctuations of construction output, and growth of the output in Kenya. Fluctuation and growth of construction activity are matters of concern in construction industries of many countries in the developing as well as in the developed world. The construction industry of Kenya is therefore an exemplifying case for this phenomenon. Construction activity in Kenya fluctuates excessively and grows very slowly. This remains a big challenge to policy makers, developers, consultants and contractors in their decision-making processes. In this study, systems thinking was applied to investigate the problem of excessive fluctuations and stunted growth of construction output in Kenya. The study developed a system dynamics model to simulate the construction output problem behaviour. The historical behaviour of the construction industry was described using construction output data of a 40-year period - from 1964 to 2003. Line graphs of the historical data exhibited profiles that helped to identify the system archetypes operating in the industry. From the profiles, it was deduced that the problem of fluctuations and slow growth of construction output in Kenya is encapsulated in two system archetypes, namely: balancing process with a delay, and limits to growth. The relationship between construction output and its determinant factors from the constru ction industry's environment was investigated using time series regression, which involved autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression and multiple regression modelling of the output. On the basis of the historical data analysis and the system archetypes identified, a system dynamics (SD) model was developed to replicate the problem of fluctuations and slow growth in the construction output. The data used to develop the system dynamics model was annual construction output in Kenya from 1964 to 2003. The model was then used: to appraise policy changes suggested by construction industry participants in Kenya, and to project construction output in Kenya from year 2004 to year 2050, in order to establish the expected future fluctuations and growth trends of the construction output. It was observed that three fundamental changes are necessary in the system structure of the construction industry of Kenya, in order to minimize fluctuations and foster growth in construction output in the country, in the long run. The changes are: setting long-term targets of annual construction output in the industry as a whole, incorporating reserve capacity in the production process, and expanding the system st ructure to capture a larger construction market. The study recommends regulation of the response of the construction industry of Kenya to changes in construction demand in the market, and expansion of the construction industry's market into the African region and beyond.
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Alsaied, Tarek. "The Effect of Fetal Hemodynamics on Fetal Growth in Single Ventricle and Transposition of the Great Arteries Fetuses." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1490354610737131.
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Wood, Richard, Konstantin Stadler, Moana Simas, Tatyana Bulavskaya, Stefan Giljum, Franz Stephan Lutter, and Arnold Tukker. "Growth in Environmental Footprints and Environmental Impacts Embodied in Trade: Resource Efficiency Indicators from EXIOBASE3." Wiley, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12735.
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Most countries show a relative decoupling of economic growth from domestic resource use,
implying increased resource efficiency. However, international trade facilitates the exchange
of products between regions with disparate resource productivity. Hence, for an understanding
of resource efficiency from a consumption perspective that takes into account the
impacts in the upstream supply chains, there is a need to assess the environmental pressures
embodied in trade. We use EXIOBASE3, a new multiregional input-output database,
to examine the rate of increase in resource efficiency, and investigate the ways in which
international trade contributes to the displacement of pressures on the environment from
the consumption of a population. We look at the environmental pressures of energy use,
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, material use, water use, and land use. Material use stands
out as the only indicator growing in both absolute and relative terms to population and
gross domestic product (GDP), while land use is the only indicator showing absolute decoupling
from both references. Energy, GHG, and water use show relative decoupling. As
a percentage of total global environmental pressure, we calculate the net impact displaced
through trade rising from 23% to 32% for material use (1995¿2011), 23% to 26% for water
use, 20% to 29% for energy use, 20% to 26% for land use, and 19% to 24% for GHG
emissions. The results show a substantial disparity between trade-related impacts for Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries.
At the product group level, we observe the most rapid growth in environmental footprints
in clothing and footwear. The analysis points to implications for future policies aiming to
achieve environmental targets, while fully considering potential displacement effects through
international trade.
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Khanam, Bilkis R. "Contributions of highway capital to output, cost, and productivity growth evidence from the Canadian goods-producing sector /." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0018/NQ56238.pdf.
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Musisi, Aldret Albert. "Underinvestment in public infrastructure capital and private sector output and productivity in Uganda : implications for economic growth /." Maastricht : Shaker Pub, 2007. http://www.loc.gov/catdir/toc/fy0716/2007468533.html.
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Olatunji, Lateef Ademola. "Essays on foreign direct investment institutions output efficiency and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa countries (SSA)." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2015. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/18500/.
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The main motivation of this thesis is to contribute to the literature and deepen our understanding of economic growth in a wide variety of countries. Explaining the course of economic growth and determine factors that might affect it, have been for a long time, and continue to be, one of the most important topics of economic literature. This thesis provides a survey and synthesis of econometric tools that have been employed to study economic growth. While these tools range across a variety of statistical methods, they are united in the common goals of first, contributing to our understanding of the empirical work on economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa economies. Second, the study quantifies the empirical relationship between Output FDI, institutions, efficiency and productivity and a wide array of factors using data over the last 41years. The first chapter is the introduction; the second chapter is an overview of Sub-Saharan Africa. The empirical analysis of the research can be categorized into three main chapters. In the first chapter (Chapter 3), Complementarity versus Substitutability: FDI and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa countries are investigated to examine the degree of complementarity between FDI and domestic capital and the level of absorptive capacity of the host countries. In the second chapter (Chapter 4), Output and Institutions are investigated to examine whether institutional development is a determinant of output per worker and productivity growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. The last chapter of empirical analysis (Chapter 5), The Role of Political and Economic Institutions on National efficiency: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, examines the role political and economic institutions play in promoting national efficiency and thus economic development. And Chapter 6 concludes the study.
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Li, Linyu. "Economic growth in Sweden, 2000-2010 : The dot-com bubble and the financial crisis." Thesis, Högskolan Dalarna, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:du-14883.
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Economic growth is the increase in the inflation-adjusted market value of the goods and services produced by an economy over time. The total output is the quantity of goods or servicesproduced in a given time period within a country. Sweden was affected by two crises during the period 2000-2010: a dot-com bubble and a financial crisis. How did these two crises affect the economic growth? The changes of domestic output can be separated into four parts: changes in intermediate demand, final domestic demand, export demand and import substitution. The main purpose of this article is to analyze the economic growth during the period 2000-2010, with focus on the dot-com bubble in the beginning of the period 2000-2005, and the financial crisis at the end of the period 2005-2010. The methodology to be used is the structural decomposition method. This investigation shows that the main contributions to the Swedish total domestic output increase in both the period 2000-2005 and the period 2005-2010 were the effect of domestic demand. In the period 2005-2010, financial crisis weakened the effect of export. The output of the primary sector went from a negative change into a positive, explained mainly by strong export expansion. In the secondary sector, export had most effect in the period 2000-2005. Nevertheless, domestic demand and import ratio had more effect during the financial crisis period. Lastly, in the tertiary sector, domestic demand can mainly explain the output growth in the whole period 2000-2010.
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Hovander, Sebastian. "The Distance to a University and Regional Output : A Study of how Distance to a University Impacts the Economic Productivity of a Municipality." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-34589.
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The Swedish population is rapidly increasing in educational level in the past two decades and educational level has long been a topic of interest for labor productivity. This increase in educational level brings up an interesting discussion of whether the remoteness of a university helps create productivity and if so by how much. This is a study that will try and explain the impact on regional productivity by having a university closer, using the distance to the closest university of each municipality in Sweden, and depending on what quality this university possess. Using simple OLS regressions results have shown some reasons for increased productivity, either positive or negative, while distance showed to not matter for regional productivity at all. This field is somewhat untouched, and with further research and by including other geographical economic theories, it could become an interesting study.
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Shvechikov, Ivan. "Conditional Impact of Institutions on Output Growth_ does the level of institutions differ systematically with the level of development?" Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-264548.
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The institutional quality concept, advanced by academic literature as a mean to enhance output growth, suffer from the absence of a clear implementation strategy. Considering that developing countries usually lack resources to be able to afford large-scale universal institutional reforms, the lack of roadmap puts substantial obstacles to practical application of the given concept. This thesis therefore goes beyond the simple statement of institutional primacy and sets an objective to differentiate the institutional effects relative to the level of development. To test it empirically, fixed effects model is chosen and interaction terms between the measures of institutional quality and the share of middle class are employed. Obtained coefficients indicate that institutions promote economic growth only when middle class share exceeds 25%. At the same time, different aspects of institutional quality exhibit contradictory dynamics. The control of corruption becomes growth enhancing only when middle class constitutes over one third of the population, while the relevance of government effectiveness for economic growth on the contrary decreases with the enlargement of middle class. These findings confirm the presence of conditionality and deny the existence of universal recipe for institutional reforms. Implementation of better institutions based on context-specific approach would therefore bring greater results in terms of economic growth than the direct adoption of best-practice institutions, so intensively advanced by the World Bank and the IMF.
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Siegel, Paul B. "The relationship between changing economic structure and performance: diversification, diversity, growth, stability, and distribution impacts." Diss., Virginia Tech, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/40017.
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Hermansson, Erik. "Population ageing and regional economic growth : A master thesis examining the effect of an ageing population on the output of Swedish municipalities." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Jönköping University, IHH, Nationalekonomi, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-48587.
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Swedish municipalities have very different age structures. Migration from rural to urban areas has led to a polarisation of Swedish regions, where urban centres have an inflow of young and skilled workers while rural regions are ageing and falling behind economically. This thesis examines what effect population ageing has on output of Swedish municipalities and how that effect differs between urban and rural municipalities. By classifying all 290 municipalities as either rural or urban and dividing the population of each municipality into six age cohorts, a clear negative relation is found between the share of people aged 65 to 79 and gross regional product per capita in both types of municipalities. Surprisingly, this negative relation is not found for the share of people above 80. This group is positively related to output in urban municipalities, but not in rural ones. Overall, population ageing seems to be negative for economic growth in both urban and rural municipalities.
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Kadhim, Hatem Hatef Abdul. "The relationship between technological change and economic growth in Iraq : an analysis of technology transfer in Iraq for the period 1960-1978 : a production function approach is used and relationships between technology transfer and economic growth identified." Thesis, University of Bradford, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/3405.
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In this study an attempt has been made to explore the role of technology transfer in the economic growth of Iraq, through the change in the technology itself for the period 1960-1978. For this purpose the economy was disaggregated into seven sectors. The experience of developed countries has shown that technical change is one of the most important factors of economic growth alongside, or even overshadowing, such factors as labour and capital. In the light of technology transfer, developing countries have the advantage of introducing high levels of advancement of knowledge which can be used to induce domestic technical change at later stages. Technical change is normally defined as a shift in the production function, and for this reason two forms of production function were estimated and tested, i. e. the constant elasticity of substitution and the Cobb-Douglas function. Also two specifications (constant and variable) were assigned to technical change. To validate the use of these, statistical tests were conducted to establish the optimum fit. Then the selected form was used to simulate output levels for comparison with actual figures. The techniques used for estimation are both linear and non-linear. Data used are time series in real terms of capital stock and output, as well as number of persons employed. Furthermore in order to judge the importance of technical change to the growth of output on aggregate and sectoral levels, as regards economic growth, comparisons were drawn with existing data from other developed and developing countries, including centrally planned economies.
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Gustavsson, Lisa. "The language learning infant : effects of speech input, vocal output, and feedback /." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Department of Linguistics, Stockholm University, 2009. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-26735.
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Voigtländer, Nico. "Essays on Economic Growth and the skill bias of technology." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7374.
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Esta tesis doctoral es una colección de tres artículos. Los capítulos 1 y 2, co-autorados con Joachim Voth, investigan por qué Europa en 1700 ya era más rico que el resto del mundo y por qué Inglaterra fue el primer país en industrializarse. Encontramos que las dinámicas de la población, en lugar del crecimiento de la productividad, fueron los promotores más importantes del desarrollo económico de Europa Occidental durante la temprana edad moderna (1450-1700). Calibramos un modelo probabilístico para representar Inglaterra en 1700 y encontramos que ingresos iniciales más altos unidos a limitaciones de fertilidad aumentaron la probabilidad de industrialización. En el tercer capítulo, presento un nuevo hecho estilizado y analizo su contribución al sesgo del cambio tecnológico hacia los trabajadores más cualificados: El porcentaje de trabajadores cualificados en la producción intermedia está altamente correlacionado con la proporción de trabajo cualificado en la producción final. Esto genera un efecto multiplicador que refuerza la demanda de trabajo cualificado a lo largo de la cadena de producción. El efecto es importante, explica más de un tercio del aumento de la demanda de trabajadores cualificados en la industria manufacturera de EE.UU.This dissertation is a collection of three essays. Chapters 1 and 2, co-authored with Joachim Voth, investigate the question why Europe in 1700 was ahead of the rest of the world and why England was the first country to industrialize. We find that population dynamics, rather than productivity growth, were the most important drivers for Western Europe to overtake China in the early modern period (1450-1700). We calibrate a probabilistic model to match England in 1700 and find that higher initial per capita incomes together with fertility limitation increased its industrialization probabilities. In the third chapter, I present a novel stylized fact and analyze its contribution to the skill bias of technical change: The share of skilled labor embedded in intermediate inputs correlates strongly with the skill share employed in final production. This delivers a multiplier that reinforces skill demand along the production chain. The effect is large, accounting for more than one third of the observed skill upgrading in U.S. manufacturing.
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Khan, Muhammad. "Impact de l’Inflation sur la croissance et ses déterminants macroéconomiques." Thesis, Orléans, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014ORLE0503/document.
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La présente thèse analyse l’impact de l’inflation sur la croissance économique et ses différents déterminants. Dansun premier temps, notre étude s’intéresse à deux aspects de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance économique.Ainsi, nous examinons tout d’abord la non-linéarité du lien entre l’inflation et la croissance économique et identifionsplusieurs seuils pour l'échantillon global ainsi que pour les différents sous-échantillons définis selon le niveau durevenu. Ensuite, nous procédons à l’identification de certaines caractéristiques macroéconomiques au niveau despays qui influencent cette non-linéarité. Nos résultats empiriques corroborent les deux éléments d’analyse précédentset montrent que la non-linéarité de la relation entre l'inflation et la croissance dépend de l’ouverture commerciale dupays, de son accumulation de capital et du niveau de ses dépenses publiques (chapitre 2). Puis, dans un secondtemps, nous nous intéressons à l’explication de la non-linéarité de la relation entre l’inflation et la croissance entestant l’effet Tobin de l’inflation sur le capital physique et sur l’effet de substitution entre le travail et l’éducationpour le capital humain. Nous montrons que l’impact positif des taux d’inflation modérés résulte de l’effet Tobin surle capital physique, tandis que la réduction de l'impact de l'accélération de l'inflation provient d’une meilleureaccumulation du capital humain. Nous confirmons tous ces effets et mettons en évidence le rôle du développementfinancier pour l'ensemble de ces mécanismes (chapitre 3). Enfin, nous abordons la question du manque de cohérenceentre la vision macroéconomique fondée sur la détermination d’un seuil optimal d'inflation et les préférences réellesdes banques centrales à travers le monde. Nous remarquons que les banques centrales utilisent des modèlesmicroéconomiques néo-keynésiens qui définissent le taux d'inflation optimal comme celui minimisant les dispersionsdans les marchés des produits et des facteurs de production. Nous testons alors l'effet de l'inflation sur la variabilitédes prix relatifs et de la croissance ; nos résultats montrent que seul un faible taux d’inflation positif réduit cesincertitudes et cela quel que soit le niveau de revenu du pays. Concernant les pays émergents de notre échantillon, lechoix du régime de politique monétaire affecte également cette variabilité (chapitre 4)This thesis is concerned with the effects of inflation on output growth and on its determinants. In the first step, ourstudy analyzes two aspects of the inflation–growth relationship. First, it examines the nonlinearity of the relationshipbetween inflation and output growth and identifies several thresholds for the global sample and for various incomespecificsub-samples. Secondly, it identifies some country-based macroeconomic features that influence thisnonlinearity. Our empirical results substantiate both views and validate the fact that the inflation–growth nonlinearityis sensitive to a country’s trade openness capital accumulation, and government expenditures (chapter 2). After that,we explain this inflation–growth nonlinearity by testing a Tobin effect of inflation on physical capital and asubstitution effect – from work to education – for human capital. We find that the positive effects of moderateinflation rate are due to the Tobin effect on physical capital whereas a weak negative effect of high inflation ratestems from a better human capital accumulation. We identify a strong role of well developed financial systems in allthese mechanisms (chapter 3). Lastly, we address a lack of coherence between the macro based optimal inflationthresholds for output growth and the actual preferences of central banks around the world. We notice that centralbanks use micro based New-Keynesian models and their optimal inflation rate is the one that minimizes dispersionsin factors and product markets. We test the effect of inflation on relative price variability and output growthvariability and, for all income groups, the results support a slight positive inflation rate to minimize theseuncertainties. For our selected emerging economies, monetary policy regimes also affect these dispersions (chapter4)
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Atsebi, Bédhat Jean-Marc. "Essays on Financial Crises and Growth Surges." Thesis, Université Clermont Auvergne (2017-2020), 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020CLFAD006.
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Cette thèse étudie deux phénomènes qui ont impacté la trajectoire de développement de plusieurs pays dans le monde : les crises financières et les poussées de croissance. La première partie de cette thèse, composée de deux chapitres (chapitres 1 et 2), analyse les coûts commerciaux et les contractions économiques associés aux crises financières dans les pays en développement et émergents. Elle examine également les canaux de transmission de ces effets et le rôle de l'espace budgétaire dans la relance économique d'après crise. La seconde partie, elle aussi composée de deux chapitres (chapitres 3 et 4), analyse les déterminants des poussées de croissance et le rôle du Fonds Monétaire International dans leur initiation. Cette thèse contribue significativement à la littérature existante sur ces deux phénomènes. Le chapitre 2 étudie les effets des crises de la dette, bancaire et de change sur le commerce des biens agricoles, miniers, manufacturiers et des services dans 41 pays émergents sur la période allant de 1980 à 2018. Il révèle que les crises génèrent une baisse prononcée et persistante du commerce international (exportations et importations), portée principalement par la contraction du commerce des biens manufacturiers, et dans une certaine mesure par la baisse du commerce des services, des produits miniers, alors que les biens agricoles apparaissent plus résilients, notamment à la suite des crises de la dette. En outre, la baisse du commerce est beaucoup plus accentuée pour les crises combinées. Les crises induisent cette baisse à travers des effets de composition (la structure et la diversification du commerce), de demande (baisse de la demande de biens et services), et d'offre (baisse de l'offre du crédit, des flux de capitaux entrants et du développement financier). Le chapitre 3 étudie le rôle de l'espace budgétaire sur les effets récessifs des crises financières et la politique de relance économique dans 35 pays en développement et 56 pays émergents sur la période 1985-2017. Il montre que la disponibilité de l'espace budgétaire avant la crise génère une dualité. Dans les pays qui ont un espace budgétaire suffisant, les coûts des crises sont plus faibles voir nuls et les gouvernements mènent des politiques de relance, supportées par une hausse de la consommation, des investissements et des flux nets de capitaux. Dans les pays avec un espace budgétaire faible, les gouvernements renoncent à leurs politiques de relance et mènent des politiques de consolidations budgétaires pour accroître la soutenabilité des finances publiques ; dans ce cas, la consommation, les investissements et les flux nets de capitaux baissent, et la récession est accentuée et persistante. Le chapitre 4 s'intéresse aux déterminants des poussées de croissance économique. Il identifie 132 épisodes de croissance soutenue dans 117 pays sur la période 1980-2010. Il montre que les améliorations de la stabilité macroéconomique et des conditions externes et dotations en ressources augmentent plus la probabilité des poussées de croissance. Elles sont suivies par les vagues de réformes structurelles, les gains d'investissements, de travail et de productivité, l'amélioration de la diversification et la qualité du commerce, et enfin par l'amélioration des facteurs institutionnels. De plus, il montre que la probabilité d'avoir des poussées de croissance augmente significativement quand les améliorations de la stabilité macroéconomique et des conditions externes et dotations en ressources interviennent, d'une part, et les autres facteurs, d'autre part. Ces deux premiers facteurs apparaissent donc comme des facteurs dominants. Le chapitre 5 évalue le rôle du FMI dans l'initiation des périodes de croissance soutenue et contribue à la littérature très controversée sur l'efficacité des politiques du FMI. Il montre que le FMI a significativement contribué à générer des périodes de croissance soutenue, notamment à travers ses programmes PRGT. (...)This dissertation studies two phenomena that have been widespread in many countries of the world through history and have huge implications for development, namely the financial crises and growth surges. The first part, comprising two chapters (chapters 2 and 3), analyzes the sectoral trade and output costs of financial crises in the context of developing and emerging countries. It also examines the channels by which financial crises affect trade and output and assess the role of fiscal policy and space to alleviate the output costs. The second part, comprising also two chapters (chapters 4 and 5) turns our attention to the determinants of growth surges in countries and the International Monetary Fund's role in igniting growth surges. Chapter 2 studies the response of different types of trade (i.e. agricultural, mining, and manufactured goods, and services) following various types of financial crises (i.e. debt, banking, and currency crises) in 41 emerging countries over the period 1980-2018. It reveals that the collapse of total trade in the aftermath of financial crises is long-lasting and mainly driven by the fall of manufacturing trade. Also, trade in both mining goods and services declines following several types of financial crises, while trade in agricultural goods seems to benefit from a possible substitution effect particularly following debt crises. These trade costs are reinforced for combined crises and can be explained by compositional and structural (trade structure and diversification), demand-side (fall in demand for goods and services), and supply-side channels (disruption of financial development, fall of net capital inflows and deterioration of credit ratings). Chapter 3 studies how fiscal policy space shapes the dynamics of output losses in the aftermath of financial crises and normal recessions in a sample of 35 developing and 56 emerging countries over the period 1985-2017. It reveals that the availability of fiscal space in the aftermath of financial crises and normal recessions generates a mixed fiscal environment with different output losses of shocks. In countries with enough fiscal space, governments can enact credible fiscal policy expansion by increasing their deficit and using their fiscal space to alleviate the costs of financial crises and normal recessions. In such a situation, private consumption and investment, as well as net capital inflows, increase, which favors a rapid recovery. In countries with limited fiscal space, the story is different and painful; governments immediately trade output stabilization goals out to address the debt sustainability issues while implementing fiscal consolidations, which deepens the recessionary forces. Besides, in these countries, private consumption and investment, as well as net capital inflows, are depressed, and recovery, if any, is a distant and uncertain prospect. Chapter 4 studies the determinants of growth surges. It identifies 132 episodes of growth surges in 117 countries over the period 1980-2010 and finds that improvements in macroeconomic stability and external factors and endowments favor a higher probability of growth surge. They are followed by structural reforms, investments, labor and productivity, trade diversification and quality, and lastly by institutions. Besides, it shows that countries can maximize the likelihood of igniting growth surges if they jointly achieve significant improvements in macroeconomic stability and external conditions and endowments, on one hand, and other determinants, on the other hand. Moreover, significant changes in macroeconomic stability, and to some extent, external factors and endowments may be considered as dominant strategies to ignite a growth surge, as no improvements in these determinants, generally constraint the other determinants to have a smaller effect on growth surges. Chapter 5 engages and contributes to the debate on the effectiveness of the IMF in promoting growth. (...)
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Yasar, Pinar. "Macroeconomic Impact Of Workers." Master's thesis, METU, 2005. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/3/12606261/index.pdf.
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In this study, a demand oriented simultaneous equation macroeconometric model with a dynamic perspective is constructed in order to investigate the impact of workers&rsquoremittances on output growth via their effects on key macro variables such as private consumption, investment and imports for Turkey. The study covers the period of 1964-2003 on an annual basis. Results of the analysis suggest that workers&rsquo
remittances affect output growth in a positive manner through the multiplier process. It is found that the highest induced growth rate by remittances to output growth belongs to the early 1970s especially the year of 1973, which corresponds to the date of first oil shock and also the end of labour migration to Europe. Thus, it is concluded that although workers&rsquo
remittances have been mostly used for consumption and imports as mentioned in most of the studies both for Turkey and other countries, remittances contributed to economic growth of Turkey positively through the multiplier process especially in the early 1970s.
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Di, Barcelos Leandro Bezerra. "Sistema financeiro e seu impacto na simulação da dinamica de uma macroeconomia." [s.n.], 2008. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/259759.
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Orientadores: Raul Vinhas Ribeiro, Rui Henrique Pereira Leite de AlbuquerqueDissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação
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Resumo: Esta tese de mestrado propõe-se a testar, avaliar e validar a importância do sistema financeiro, bem como seus impactos em um sistema econômico. Utilizando uma modelagem fundamentada em análise insumo-produto realizada com auxílio de ferramentas de programação linear, incorpora-se à estrutura clássica apresentada por Leontief um módulo que representa o sistema financeiro e, a partir deste novo modelo, estudam-se as alterações em sua dinâmica.
Abstract: The purpose of this master thesis is to test, evaluate and validate the importance of the financial system and its effects on an economical system. By the use of a modeling technique based on input-output analysis, conducted with the aid of linear programming tools, a module representing the financial system is incorporated to the classical structure proposed by Leontief, thus introducing a new model from which we study variations on its dynamics.
Mestrado
Automação
Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica
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Nykvist, Marcus, and Eric Månsson. "The Stock Market as a Leading Macroeconomic Indicator." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för ekonomistyrning och logistik (ELO), 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-106644.
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This article goes on to explain and seek if there is any predictive power in the stock markets toward GDP. Put in other words, this study examines whether or not the stock market can be seen as a leading indicator toward GDP for the ten biggest economies measured by GDP in the year 2020. What can be concluded from the results discussed in the analysis section is that the best predictability is when the stock market leads GDP with three to five quarters. In earlier studies on the same topic, the same results can be concluded. However, these previous studies have all shown an extended predictive period between one and five quarters, compared to our results which showed three to five quarters. One note worth mentioning is that we obtained contradictory results depending on if the tests were implemented for each country individually through time series data analysis, or collectively through panel data analysis. Our conclusion was drawn with the panel data analysis as the underlying truth, as it is viewed as more efficient and informative while also being a more suitable tool for studying the dynamics of change.
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Davis, Jonathan P. "Studies on the influence of ambient temperature and food supply on growth rate, carbohydrate content and reproductive output in diploid and triploid Pacific oysters, Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg) /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1994. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/5347.
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Pakravanmobarakeh, Mohammad Hossein. "Economic Input-Output Analysis for Battery Recycling Programs at the Higher Education Institutions and Regional Sustainability Planning." University of Dayton / OhioLINK, 2014. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=dayton1397736905.
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Martins, Daniel. "Os determinantes do crescimento econômico regional: um estudo da região da produção do estado do Rio Grande do Sul." Universidade do Vale do Rio do Sinos, 2008. http://www.repositorio.jesuita.org.br/handle/UNISINOS/2771.
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Previous issue date: 15Nenhuma
O presente estudo objetiva determinar através do Método Estrutural-Diferencial a dinâmica do crescimento econômico através do emprego setorial na Região da Produção no estado do Rio Grande do Sul no período de 1996 a 2006. Para tanto, utilizou-se de dois métodos de análise: o Método Estrutural-Diferencial e o Método de Análise Insumo-Produto. O Método Estrutural-Diferencial procura descrever o crescimento econômico de uma região em termos de sua estrutura produtiva. Através da decomposição de dois fatores: um de ordem endógena devido as vantagem locacionais – e o outro de ordem exógena – pelo fato de que a região possui indústrias dinâmicas em nível nacional. O Método Insumo-Produto utiliza-se dos modelos de equilíbrio geral para as trocas setoriais da economia regional, pois cada setor absorve insumos de outros setores, além de produzir bens e serviços que, que por sua vez, serão utilizados por outros setores para serem processados ou para um consumo final. A Região da Produção apresentou crescimento positiv
The present study objective to determine through the Shift-Share Method the dynamics of the economic growth through the sectoral job in the Região da Produção in the state of the Rio Grande do Sul in the period of 1996 the 2006. For in such a way, it was used of two methods of analysis: the Shift-Share Method and the Method of Input-Output Analysis. The Shift-Share method looks for to describe the economic growth of a region in terms of its productive structure. Through the decomposition of two factors: one of places which had internal order to the advantage - and the other of extern order - for the fact of that the region possess dynamic industries in national level. The Input-Output method is used of the models of general balance for the sectoral exchanges of the regional economy, therefore each sector absorbs inputs of other sectors, beyond producing goods and services that, that in turn, will be used by other sectors to be processed or for a final consumption. The Region of the Production presented positi