Journal articles on the topic 'Ground shaking scenarios'
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Wirth, Erin A., Alex Grant, Nasser A. Marafi, and Arthur D. Frankel. "Ensemble ShakeMaps for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 1 (November 18, 2020): 199–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200240.
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Abstract We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies <1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies >1 Hz) and uniform site amplification factors to create broadband seismograms from this set of 30 earthquake scenarios. Here, we expand on this work by computing site-specific amplification factors for the Pacific Northwest and applying these factors to the ground-motion estimates derived from Frankel et al. (2018). In addition, we use empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) to expand the ground-shaking estimates beyond the original model extent of Frankel et al. (2018) to cover all of Washington State, Oregon, northern California, and southern British Columbia to facilitate the use of these ensemble ShakeMaps in region-wide risk assessments and scenario planning exercises. Using this updated set of 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, we present ensemble ShakeMaps for the median, 2nd, 16th, 84th, and 98th percentile ground-motion intensity measures. Whereas traditional scenario ShakeMaps are based on a single hypothetical earthquake rupture, our ensemble ShakeMaps take advantage of a logic-tree approach to estimating ground motions from multiple earthquake rupture scenarios. In addition, 3D earthquake simulations capture important features such as strong ground-motion amplification in the Pacific Northwest’s sedimentary basins, which are not well represented in the empirical GMMs that compose traditional scenario ShakeMaps. Overall, our results highlight the importance of strong-motion-generating subevents for coastal sites, as well as the amplification of long-period ground shaking in deep sedimentary basins, compared with previous scenario ShakeMaps for Cascadia.
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Scandella, L., C. G. Lai, D. Spallarossa, and M. Corigliano. "Ground shaking scenarios at the town of Vicoforte, Italy." Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 31, no. 5-6 (May 2011): 757–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2010.12.004.
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Ghofrani, Hadi, Gail M. Atkinson, Luc Chouinard, Philippe Rosset, and Kristy F. Tiampo. "Scenario shakemaps for Montreal." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 42, no. 7 (July 2015): 463–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2014-0496.
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Montreal has significant seismic risk due to the combination of moderate seismicity, high population density, and vulnerable infrastructure. An important tool in damage and risk assessment is a scenario shakemap, which shows the expected ground shaking intensity distribution patterns. In this study, we use regional ground motion and site response evaluations to generate scenario shakemaps for Montreal. The impact of event location on expected ground motions and intensities was tested by considering the occurrence of a scenario (a given magnitude event) at various locations, where the scenarios are defined based on an analysis of the most likely future event locations. Variability in near surface geology plays an important role in earthquake ground shaking; we use microzonation information from Montreal to assess the expected site amplification effects. The results of this study may be used as input to seismic risk studies for Montreal.
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Van Dissen, R. J., J. J. Taber, W. R. Stephenson, S. Sritheran, S. A. L. Read, G. H. McVerry, G. D. Dellow, and P. R. Barker. "Earthquake ground shaking hazard assessment for the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas, New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 25, no. 4 (December 31, 1992): 286–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.25.4.286-302.
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Geographic variations in strong ground shaking expected during damaging earthquakes impacting on the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas are identified and quantified. Four ground shaking hazard zones have been mapped in the Lower Hutt area, and three in Porirua, based on geological, weak motion, and strong motion inputs. These hazard zones are graded from 1 to 5. In general, Zone 5 areas are subject to the greatest hazard, and Zone 1 areas the least. In Lower Hutt, zones 3 and 4 are not differentiated and are referred to as Zone 3-4. The five-fold classification is used to indicate the range of relative response.
Zone 1 areas are underlain by bedrock. Zone 2 areas are typically underlain by compact alluvial and fan gravel. Zone 3-4 is underlain, to a depth of 20 m, by interfingered layers of flexible (soft) sediment (fine sand, silt, clay, peat), and compact gravel and sand. Zone 5 is directly underlain by more than 10 m of flexible sediment with shear wave velocities in the order of 200 m/s or less.
The response of each zone is assessed for two earthquake scenarios. Scenario 1 is for a moderate to large, shallow, distant earthquake that results in regional Modified Mercalli intensity V-VI shaking on bedrock. Scenario 2 is for a large, local, but rarer, Wellington fault earthquake. The response characterisation for each zone comprises: expected Modified Mercalli intensity; peak horizontal ground acceleration; duration of strong shaking; and amplification of ground motion with respect to bedrock, expressed as a Fourier spectral ratio, including the frequency range over which the most pronounced amplification occurs. In brief, high to very high ground motion amplifications are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, during a scenario 1 earthquake. Peak Fourier spectral ratios of 10-20 are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, and a difference of up to three, possibly four, MM intensity units is expected between the two zones. During a scenario 2 event, it is anticipated that the level of shaking throughout the Lower Hutt and Porirua region will increase markedly, relative to scenario 1, and the average difference in shaking between each zone will decrease.
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Smerzini, C., K. Pitilakis, and K. Hashemi. "3D NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE SEISMIC RESPONSE OF THE THESSALONIKI URBAN AREA: THE CASE OF THE 1978 VOLVI EARTHQUAKE." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (July 27, 2017): 1433. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11857.
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This study aims at showing the numerical modelling of earthquake ground motion in the Thessaloniki urban area, using a 3D spectral element approach. The availability of detailed geotechnical/geophysical data together with the seismological information regarding the relevant fault sources allowed us to construct a large-scale 3D numerical model suitable for generating physics based ground shaking scenarios within the city of Thessaloniki up to maximum frequencies of about 2 Hz. Results of the numerical simulation of the destructive MW6.5 1978 Volvi earthquake are addressed, showing that realistic estimates can be obtained. Shaking maps in terms of ground motion parameters such as PGV are used to discuss the main seismic wave propagation effects at a wide scale.
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PAN, TSO-CHIEN, KUSNOWIDJAJA MEGAWATI, and CHEE LEONG LIM. "SEISMIC SHAKING IN SINGAPORE DUE TO PAST SUMATRAN EARTHQUAKES." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 01, no. 01 (March 2007): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431107000043.
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In 1996, the Meteorological Service of Singapore (MSS) installed a network of seven seismic stations. Nanyang Technological University (NTU) has also installed two additional seismic stations. Together, the nine stations form a network called the Singapore Array for Earthquake Response (SAFER). One of the stations installed by NTU consists of two sets of four accelerometers installed in a 66-storey commercial building for the study of building response to far-field earthquakes. This paper summarizes the research work that has been developed from the network of sensors. During the operation of the SAFER array, far-field earthquake ground motions have been recorded for many Sumatra earthquake events. From this, local site characteristics have been studied and hazard maps showing the amplified peak ground acceleration of the earthquake has been developed for the local sites. A case study for the hazard map due to the Bengkulu earthquake (Mw = 7.7) of June 4, 2000, is shown. Based on numerical studies of typical building structures in Singapore, an additional response map showing spatial variation of approximate base shear of buildings has been developed for Singapore. A case study of the response map due to the Bengkulu earthquake (Mw = 7.7) of June 4, 2000, is also shown. For future seismic hazard assessments of Singapore, a set of attenuation relationships that can reasonably predict the ground-motion intensity in Singapore generated by potential seismic sources have to be established. These attenuation relationships have to be developed using synthetic seismograms because the ground motion data that have been recorded within the last 10 years is not sufficient to develop them empirically. However, the available ground motions play a critical role in validating the synthetic attenuation relationships. The ultimate objective of this continuing research work is to incorporate a real-time monitoring system with the ground motion prediction models into hazard and response maps for scenario earthquakes. Such an integrated system when developed may assist in the planning of emergency responses to various earthquake scenarios.
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Tanyaş, Hakan, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Luigi Lombardo. "Capturing the footprints of ground motion in the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides." Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 80, no. 6 (April 18, 2021): 4323–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10064-021-02238-x.
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AbstractThe coupled effect of earthquakes and rainfall is rarely investigated in landslide susceptibility assessments although it could be crucial to predict landslide occurrences. This is even more critical in the context of early warning systems and especially in cases of extreme precipitation regimes in post-seismic conditions, where the rock masses are already damaged due to the ground shaking. Here, we investigate this concept by accounting for the legacy of seismic ground shaking in rainfall-induced landslide (RFIL) scenarios. We do this to identify whether ground shaking plays a role in the susceptibility to post-seismic rainfall-induced landslides and to identify whether this legacy effect persists through time. With this motivation, we use binary logistic regression and examine time series of landslides associated with four earthquakes occurred in Indonesia: 2012 Sulawesi (Mw = 6.3), 2016 Reuleut (Mw = 6.5), 2017 Kasiguncu (Mw = 6.6) and 2018 Palu (Mw = 7.5) earthquakes. The dataset includes one co-seismic and three post-seismic landslide inventories for each earthquake. We use the peak ground acceleration map of the last strongest earthquake in each case as a predisposing factor of landslides representing the effect of ground shaking. We observe that, at least for the study areas under consideration and in a probabilistic context, the earthquake legacy contributes to increase the post-seismic RFIL susceptibility. This positive contribution decays through time. Specifically, we observe that ground motion is a significant predisposing factor controlling the spatial distribution of RFIL in the post-seismic period 110 days after an earthquake. We also show that this effect dissipates within 3 years at most.
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van der Meijde, Mark, Md Ashrafuzzaman, Norman Kerle, Saad Khan, and Harald van der Werff. "The Influence of Surface Topography on the Weak Ground Shaking in Kathmandu Valley during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake, Nepal." Sensors 20, no. 3 (January 26, 2020): 678. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20030678.
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It remains elusive why there was only weak and limited ground shaking in Kathmandu valley during the 25 April 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha, Nepal, earthquake. Our spectral element numerical simulations show that, during this earthquake, surface topography restricted the propagation of seismic energy into the valley. The mountains diverted the incoming seismic wave mostly to the eastern and western margins of the valley. As a result, we find de-amplification of peak ground displacement in most of the valley interior. Modeling of alternative earthquake scenarios of the same magnitude occurring at different locations shows that these will affect the Kathmandu valley much more strongly, up to 2–3 times more, than the 2015 Gorkha earthquake did. This indicates that surface topography contributed to the reduced seismic shaking for this specific earthquake and lessened the earthquake impact within the valley.
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Castro, Sebastián, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos Herrera, and Juan Carlos de la Llera. "Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 1 (February 2019): 137–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/101917eqs218m.
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Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.
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Tumurbaatar, Zorigt, Hiroyuki Miura, and Tsoggerel Tsamba. "Development of Building Inventory Data in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia for Seismic Loss Estimation." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 11, no. 1 (December 30, 2021): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11010026.
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During the last two decades, the rapid urbanization movement has increased the concentration of population and buildings in Ulaanbaatar city (UB), Mongolia. There are several active faults around UB. The estimated maximum magnitude of 7 in the Emeelt fault has been expected to significantly impact the UB region because the fault is only 20 km from the city. To consider the disaster mitigation planning for such large earthquakes, assessments of ground shaking intensities and building damage for the scenarios are crucial. In this study, we develop the building inventory data in UB, including structural types, construction year, height, and construction cost in order to assess the buildings’ vulnerability (repair cost) due to a scenario earthquake. The construction costs are estimated based on the procedure of the Mongolian construction code from the coefficients of cost per floor area for each structural type, and coefficients for heating system, floor areas, and buildings’ locations. Finally, the scenario’s economic loss of the damaged buildings is evaluated using the developed building inventory, global vulnerability curves of GAR-13, and estimated spectral accelerations.
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Leopatty, H., R. Alam, Rustan Efendi, L. F. Asyhar, M. Cholidani, A. Mustarang, and S. Feriansyah. "The Identification of Earthquake Shake Levels in Palu City Based on Mw 6,8 Shakemap Scenario by Palu Koro Fault." Gravitasi 21, no. 1 (December 23, 2022): 5–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.22487/gravitasi.v21i1.15836.
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Palu city is an active earthquake region, mainly sourced from the activity of the Palu Koro Fault. Referring to the Mw7.4 Central of Sulawesi earthquake on September 28th, 2018 with ground shaking intensity reached VII-IX MMI level in Palu. As a supporting data and preparation of an earthquake contingency plan document in Palu City, we proposed 3 sources of earthquake scenarios in the Palu Koro fault at a depth of 11 km, namely Mw6.8 in the Palu City Segment with coordinates 119.830 E – 0.800 S, Mw 6.9 in the Saluki segment with coordinates 120.010 E - 1,250 S and Mw 7.1 in the Makassar Strait segment with coordinates 119.750 E – 0.380 S. The worst-case scenario is that the Mw6.8 earthquake in Palu City can reach VI-VIII MMI.
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Moratto, L., A. Vuan, A. Saraò, D. Slejko, C. Papazachos, R. Caputo, D. Civile, et al. "Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 2: broadband scenarios at the Fier Compressor Station (Albania)." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 19, no. 9 (May 22, 2021): 3389–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01122-z.
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AbstractTo ensure environmental and public safety, critical facilities require rigorous seismic hazard analysis to define seismic input for their design. We consider the case of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is a pipeline that transports natural gas from the Caspian Sea to southern Italy, crossing active faults and areas characterized by high seismicity levels. For this pipeline, we develop a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the broader area, and, for the selected critical sites, we perform deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA), by calculating shaking scenarios that account for the physics of the source, propagation, and site effects. This paper presents a DSHA for a compressor station located at Fier, along the Albanian coastal region. Considering the location of the most hazardous faults in the study site, revealed by the PSHA disaggregation, we model the ground motion for two different scenarios to simulate the worst-case scenario for this compressor station. We compute broadband waveforms for receivers on soft soils by applying specific transfer functions estimated from the available geotechnical data for the Fier area. The simulations reproduce the variability observed in the ground motion recorded in the near-earthquake source. The vertical ground motion is strong for receivers placed above the rupture areas and should not be ignored in seismic designs; furthermore, our vertical simulations reproduce the displacement and the static offset of the ground motion highlighted in recent studies. This observation confirms the importance of the DSHA analysis in defining the expected pipeline damage functions and permanent soil deformations.
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Kiratzi, A., Z. Roumelioti, Ch Benetatos, N. Theodulidis, A. Savvaidis, A. Panou, I. N. Tziavos, et al. "SEISIMPACT-THES: A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT OF THE PREFECTURE OF THESSALONIKI." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 36, no. 3 (January 1, 2004): 1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16529.
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In the framework of the "SEISIMPACT-THES" project (Koutoupes et al., 2004; Savvaidis et al., 2004) a GIS database has been designed to include information on a wide range of components related to seismic risk within the broader area of the prefecture of Thessaloniki. One of these components refers to the distribution of strong ground motion produced by large earthquakes and the ability of a potential future user of the database to retrieve information regarding the distribution of strong ground motion from past destructive earthquakes in the area of Thessaloniki, as well as relative information for realistic future scenario earthquakes in the same area. The selection of future scenario earthquakes that may affect this urban region of interest is based on a combined review of historical data, previous probabilistic and deterministic hazard assessments, seismotectonic and microseismicity studies, relocated seismicity in northern Greece and the experience gained from worldwide research. In this study we present the results from hypothetical rupture of one fault that is located at the suburbs of the city, the Asvestochori fault. Empirical relations applicable to Greece (Papazachos & Papazachou 2003), as well as seismicity information are combined to determine the dimensions of the scenario earthquake source. Strong ground motion for the selected scenario is simulated using the stochastic method for finite faults (Beresnev and Atkinson, 1997). Uncertainties due to unknown parameters such as the rupture initiation point and the distribution of slip on the fault plane are taken into account by examining a large number of random scenarios. The average values from these multiple scenarios are then used to compile maps of strong ground motion parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). Although the examined scenario earthquake is moderate in size (Mw 5.2), the level of the resulting strong ground motion parameters is indicative of the potential destructiveness of the examined source. Due to the simplicity in the underlying assumptions of the stochastic method, the results of this study are a first-order approximation to the problem of defining expected shaking in the wider area of Thessaloniki. Other strong motion simulation methods of more deterministic character will also be applied for the same purpose in the framework of the SEISIMPACT-THES project.
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Menafoglio, Alessandra, Sara Sgobba, Giovanni Lanzano, and Francesca Pacor. "Simulation of seismic ground motion fields via object-oriented spatial statistics with an application in Northern Italy." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 34, no. 10 (September 4, 2020): 1607–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-020-01847-4.
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Abstract This work offers a novel methodological framework to address the problem of generating data-driven earthquake shaking fields at different vibration periods, which are key to support decision making and civil protection planning. We propose to analyse the entire profiles of spectral accelerations and project their information content to unsampled locations in the system, based on the theory of Object Oriented Spatial Statistics. The proposed methodology combines a non-ergodic ground motion model with a fully functional model for the residual term, the latter consisting of (i) the spatially-varying systematic effects due to source, site and path, and (ii) the remaining aleatory error. The proposed methodology allows to generate multiple shaking scenarios conditioned on the data, jointly and consistently for all the vibration periods, overcoming the intrinsic limitations of existing multivariate approaches to the problem. The approach is tested on a vast dataset of ground motion records collected in the study-area of the Po Plain (Northern Italy), for which a region-specific fully non-ergodic GMM was previously calibrated. Our validation tests demonstrate the potentiality of the approach, which is capable to effectively simulate spectral acceleration profiles, while keeping the ability to capture the main physical features of ground motion patterns in the region.
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Irizarry, J., N. Lantada, L. G. Pujades, A. H. Barbat, X. Goula, T. Susagna, and A. Roca. "Ground-shaking scenarios and urban risk evaluation of Barcelona using the Risk-UE capacity spectrum based method." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 9, no. 2 (November 12, 2010): 441–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-010-9222-6.
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Konovalov, Alexey, Yuriy Gensiorovskiy, Valentina Lobkina, Alexandra Muzychenko, Yuliya Stepnova, Leonid Muzychenko, Andrey Stepnov, and Mikhail Mikhalyov. "Earthquake-Induced Landslide Risk Assessment: An Example from Sakhalin Island, Russia." Geosciences 9, no. 7 (July 11, 2019): 305. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9070305.
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Damages caused by earthquake-induced ground effects can be of the order or significantly exceed the expected damages from ground shaking. A new probabilistic technique is considered in this study for earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment. A fully probabilistic technique suggests a multi-stage hazard assessment. These stages include the determination of seismic hazard curves and landslide probabilistic models, a vulnerability assessment, and geotechnical investigations. At each of the stages, the uncertainties should be carefully analyzed. A logic tree technique, which handles all available models and parameters, was used in the study. The method was applied considering child education facilities located at the foot of a natural slope in the south of Sakhalin Island which is known as an active seismic and land sliding area. The significant differences in the ground motion scenario in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the fully probabilistic approach considered suggests that seismic landslide risk could be underestimated or overestimated when using the 475-year seismic hazard map for risk assessment. The given approach follows the rational risk management idea that handles well all possible ground motion scenarios, slope models, and parameters. The authors suggest that the given approach can improve geotechnical studies of slope stability.
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Babayev, G., A. Ismail-Zadeh, and J. L. Le Mouël. "Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 12 (December 22, 2010): 2697–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2697-2010.
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Abstract. A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross domestic product per capita, and landslide's occurrence), and exposure of infrastructure and critical facilities. The earthquake risk assessment provides useful information to identify the factors influencing the risk. A deterministic seismic hazard for Baku is analysed for four earthquake scenarios: near, far, local, and extreme events. The seismic hazard models demonstrate the level of ground shaking in the city: PGA high values are predicted in the southern coastal and north-eastern parts of the city and in some parts of the downtown. The PGA attains its maximal values for the local and extreme earthquake scenarios. We show that the quality of buildings and the probability of their damage, the distribution of urban population, exposure, and the pattern of peak ground acceleration contribute to the seismic risk, meanwhile the vulnerability factors play a more prominent role for all earthquake scenarios. Our results can allow elaborating strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the Baku city.
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Nikolaeva, S., and D. Tolstobrov. "Sedimentological records of atastrophic mass movements in the lake bottom-sediments of north-western Kola Peninsula and possible scenarios to explain the seismogenic trigger." Limnology and Freshwater Biology, no. 4 (2022): 1517–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.31951/2658-3518-2022-a-4-1517.
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Abstract. In this present article, we describe disturbances in the sedimentary records of lakes on the western flank of Lake Imandra (NE Fennoscandia, Kola Peninsula). The research framework comprises sedimentological and textural criteria for a visual description of sedimentary structures, borehole drilling data, chronological (radiocarbon dating) data, and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. Synchronicity specific features and fast spontaneous sediment accumulation in lakes, as well as traces of strong prehistoric and historical earthquakes and geomorphic setting in the studied area suggest that the observed mass movements in lake sediments are potentially generated by earthquake shaking.
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Muhammad, Ario, Katsuichiro Goda, Nicholas A. Alexander, Widjo Kongko, and Abdul Muhari. "Tsunami evacuation plans for future megathrust earthquakes in Padang, Indonesia, considering stochastic earthquake scenarios." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 17, no. 12 (December 12, 2017): 2245–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2245-2017.
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Abstract. This study develops tsunami evacuation plans in Padang, Indonesia, using a stochastic tsunami simulation method. The stochastic results are based on multiple earthquake scenarios for different magnitudes (Mw 8.5, 8.75, and 9.0) that reflect asperity characteristics of the 1797 historical event in the same region. The generation of the earthquake scenarios involves probabilistic models of earthquake source parameters and stochastic synthesis of earthquake slip distributions. In total, 300 source models are generated to produce comprehensive tsunami evacuation plans in Padang. The tsunami hazard assessment results show that Padang may face significant tsunamis causing the maximum tsunami inundation height and depth of 15 and 10 m, respectively. A comprehensive tsunami evacuation plan – including horizontal evacuation area maps, assessment of temporary shelters considering the impact due to ground shaking and tsunami, and integrated horizontal–vertical evacuation time maps – has been developed based on the stochastic tsunami simulation results. The developed evacuation plans highlight that comprehensive mitigation policies can be produced from the stochastic tsunami simulation for future tsunamigenic events.
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Sgobba, Sara, Giovanni Lanzano, Francesca Pacor, Rodolfo Puglia, Maria D'Amico, Chiara Felicetta, and Lucia Luzi. "Spatial Correlation Model of Systematic Site and Path Effects for Ground‐Motion Fields in Northern Italy." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 4 (June 11, 2019): 1419–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180209.
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Abstract In this study, we propose an approach to generate spatially correlated seismic ground‐motion fields for loss assessment and risk analysis. Differently from the majority of spatial correlation models, usually calibrated on within‐earthquake residuals, we use the sum of the source‐, site‐, and path‐systematic effects (namely corrective terms) of the ground‐motion model (GMM), obtained relaxing the ergodic assumption. In this way, we build a scenario‐related spatial correlation model of the corrective terms by which adjusting the median predictions of ground motion and the associated variability. We show a case study focused on the Po Plain area in northern Italy, presenting a series of peculiar features (i.e., availability of a dense dataset of seismic records with uniform soil classification and very large plain with variable thickness of the sedimentary cover) that make its study particularly suitable for the purpose of developing and validating the proposed approach. The study exploits the repeatable corrective terms, estimated by Lanzano et al. (2017) in northern Italy, using a local GMM (Lanzano et al., 2016), which predicts the geometric mean of horizontal response spectral accelerations in the 0.01–4 s period range. Our results show that the implementation of a spatially correlated model of the systematic terms provides reliable shaking fields at various periods and spatial patterns compliant with the deepest geomorphology of the area, which is an aspect not accounted by the GMM model. The possibility to define a priori fields of systematic effects depending on local characteristics could be usefully adopted either to simulate future ground‐motion scenarios or to reconstruct past events.
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SOMSA-ARD, NANTHAPORN, and SANTI PAILOPLEE. "SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR MYANMAR." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 07, no. 04 (November 2013): 1350029. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431113500292.
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In this study, the seismic hazards of Myanmar are analyzed based on both deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. The area of the Sumatra–Andaman Subduction Zone is newly defined and the lines of faults proposed previously are grouped into nine earthquake sources that might affect the Myanmar region. The earthquake parameters required for the seismic hazard analysis (SHA) were determined from seismicity data including paleoseismological information. Using previously determined suitable attenuation models, SHA maps were developed. For the deterministic SHA, the earthquake hazard in Myanmar varies between 0.1 g in the Eastern part up to 0.45 g along the Western part (Arakan Yoma Thrust Range). Moreover, probabilistic SHA revealed that for a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 and 100 years, the levels of ground shaking along the remote area of the Arakan Yoma Thrust Range are 0.35 and 0.45 g, respectively. Meanwhile, the main cities of Myanmar located nearby the Sagaing Fault Zone, such as Mandalay, Yangon, and Naypyidaw, may be subjected to peak horizontal ground acceleration levels of around 0.25 g.
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Asimaki, Domniki, Kami Mohammadi, Henry B. Mason, Rachel K. Adams, Sudhir Rajaure, and Diwakar Khadka. "Observations and Simulations of Basin Effects in the Kathmandu Valley during the 2015 Gorkha, Nepal, Earthquake Sequence." Earthquake Spectra 33, no. 1_suppl (December 2017): 35–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/013117eqs022m.
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The M7.8 Gorkha, Nepal main shock ruptured a segment of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) directly below Kathmandu Valley, causing strong shaking levels across the valley. Strong-motion data reveal an initial 6 s source pulse that was amplified and reverberated within the basin. One of the striking features of the observed ground motions in the valley was the exceptionally low energy of periods less than 2 s, which likely limited the extent and severity of structural damage in Kathmandu compared with alternative rupture scenarios of the same magnitude in the region. Isolated cases of liquefaction and lateral spreading of unconsolidated sediments were also observed, but have not yet revealed a systematic damage pattern. Initial analysis of available data suggests that several different factors, including source and path as well as site effects, were responsible for the unusual ground motions characteristics. In this paper, we provide a short description of the Kathmandu Valley geology and analyze available strong-motion records from the main shock and three strong aftershocks, with the intent to shed light on earthquake reconnaissance observations from this earthquake.
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Wong, Ivan, Jawhar Bouabid, William Graf, Charles Huyck, Allan Porush, Walter Silva, Timothy Siegel, Gilles Bureau, Ronald Eguchi, and John Knight. "Potential Losses in a Repeat of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake." Earthquake Spectra 21, no. 4 (November 2005): 1157–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.2083907.
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A comprehensive earthquake loss assessment for the state of South Carolina using HAZUS was performed considering four different earthquake scenarios: a moment magnitude ( M) 7.3 “1886 Charleston-like” earthquake, M 6.3 and M 5.3 events also from the Charleston seismic source, and an M 5.0 earthquake in Columbia. Primary objectives of this study were (1) to generate credible earthquake losses to provide a baseline for coordination, capability development, training, and strategic planning for the South Carolina Emergency Management Division, and (2) to raise public awareness of the significant earthquake risk in the state. Ground shaking, liquefaction, and earthquake-induced landsliding hazards were characterized using region-specific inputs on seismic source, path, and site effects, and ground motion numerical modeling. Default inventory data on buildings and facilities in HAZUS were either substantially enhanced or replaced. Losses were estimated using a high resolution 2- km×2- km grid rather than the census tract approach used in HAZUS. The results of the loss assessment indicate that a future repeat of the 1886 earthquake would be catastrophic, resulting in possibly 900 deaths, more than 44,000 injuries, and a total economic loss of $20 billion in South Carolina alone. Schools, hospitals, fire stations, ordinary buildings, and bridges will suffer significant damage due to the general lack of seismic design in the state. Lesser damage and losses will be sustained in the other earthquake scenarios although even the smallest event could result in significant losses.
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Di Michele, F., J. May, D. Pera, V. Kastelic, M. Carafa, C. Smerzini, I. Mazzieri, et al. "Spectral element numerical simulation of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake on a detailed reconstructed domain." Geophysical Journal International 230, no. 1 (February 11, 2022): 29–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac042.
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SUMMARY In this paper, we simulate the earthquake that hit the city of L’Aquila on 2009 April 6 using SPEED (SPectral Elements in Elastodynamics with Discontinuous Galerkin), an open-source code able to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in complex 3-D domains. Our model includes an accurate 3-D reconstruction of the Quaternary deposits, according to the most up-to-date data obtained from the Microzonation studies in Central Italy and a detailed model of the topography incorporated using a newly developed tool. The sensitivity of our results with respect to different kinematic seismic sources is investigated. The results obtained are in good agreement with the recordings at the available seismic stations at epicentral distances within a range of 20 km. Finally, a blind source prediction scenario application shows that a reasonably good agreement between simulations and recordings can be obtained by simulating stochastic rupture realizations with basic input data. These results, although limited to nine simulated scenarios, demonstrate that it is possible to obtain a satisfactory reconstruction of a ground shaking scenario employing a stochastic source constrained on a limited amount of ex-ante information. A similar approach can be used to model future and past earthquakes for which little or no information is typically available, with potential relevant implications for seismic risk assessment.
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Picozzi, Matteo, Fabrice Cotton, Dino Bindi, Antonio Emolo, Guido Maria Adinolfi, Daniele Spallarossa, and Aldo Zollo. "Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ground-Motion Intensity at the Irpinia Near-Fault Observatory, Southern Italy." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112, no. 1 (December 21, 2021): 243–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120210153.
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ABSTRACT Fault zones are major sources of hazard for many populated regions around the world. Earthquakes still occur unanticipated, and research has started to observe fault properties with increasing spatial and temporal resolution, having the goal of detecting signs of stress accumulation and strength weakening that may anticipate the rupture. The common practice is monitoring source parameters retrieved from measurements; however, model dependence and strong uncertainty propagation hamper their usage for small and microearthquakes. Here, we decipher the ground motion (i.e., ground shaking) variability associated with microseismicity detected by dense seismic networks at a near-fault observatory in Irpinia, Southern Italy, and obtain an unprecedentedly sharp picture of the fault properties evolution both in time and space. We discuss the link between the ground-motion intensity and the source parameters of the considered microseismicity, showing a coherent spatial distribution of the ground-motion intensity with that of corner frequency, stress drop, and radiation efficiency. Our analysis reveals that the ground-motion intensity presents an annual cycle in agreement with independent geodetic displacement observations from two Global Navigation Satellite System stations in the area. The temporal and spatial analyses also reveal a heterogeneous behavior of adjacent fault segments in a high seismic risk Italian area. Concerning the temporal evolution of fault properties, we highlight that the fault segment where the 1980 Ms 6.9 Irpinia earthquake nucleated shows changes in the event-specific signature of ground-motion signals since 2013, suggesting changes in their frictional properties. This evidence, combined with complementary information on the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution, reveals differences in fault segment response to tectonic loading, suggesting rupture scenarios of future moderate and large earthquakes for seismic hazard assessment.
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Touhami, Sara, Filippo Gatti, Fernando Lopez-Caballero, Régis Cottereau, Lúcio de Abreu Corrêa, Ludovic Aubry, and Didier Clouteau. "SEM3D: A 3D High-Fidelity Numerical Earthquake Simulator for Broadband (0–10 Hz) Seismic Response Prediction at a Regional Scale." Geosciences 12, no. 3 (March 2, 2022): 112. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12030112.
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In this paper, we present SEM3D: a 3D high-fidelity numerical earthquake simulator that is tailored to predict the seismic wave field of complex earthquake scenarios from the fault to the epicenter site. SEM3D solves the wave-propagation problem by means of the spectral element method (SEM). The presented demonstrative test case was a blind MW6.0 earthquake scenario at the European experimental site located in the sedimentary basin of Argostoli on the island of Kefalonia (Western Greece). A well-constrained geological model, obtained via geophysical inversion studies, and seismological model, given the large database of seismic traces recorded by the newly installed ARGONET network, of the site were considered. The domain of interest covered a region of 44 km × 44 km × 63 km, with the smallest grid size of 130 m × 130 m × 35 m. This allowed us to simulate the ground shaking in its entirety, from the seismic source to the epicenter site within a 0–10 Hz frequency band. Owing to the pseudo-spectral nature of the numerical method and given the high polynomial order (i.e., degree nine), the model featured 1.35·1010 DOFs (degrees of freedom). The variability of the synthetic wave field generated within the basin is assessed herein, exploring different random realizations of the mean velocity structure and heterogeneous rupture path.
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Hernandez Pardo, Orlando. "Vichada meteorite impact effects from simulation of regional environmental consequences of a meteoroid impact on Earth." Earth Sciences Research Journal 22, no. 1 (January 1, 2018): 7–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v22n1.65459.
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This study estimates the regional environmental consequences of the impactor extraterrestrial body that could produce the probable Vichada impact crater structure on the Vichada Plain, in Colombia, South America. This paper details the parameter assumptions upon which the estimation is made. It describes an approach to quantifying the principal impact processes that could have affected the landscape in the vicinity of the probable Vichada impact event in the past. The key parameters are impactor diameter, impactor density, impact velocity before atmospheric entry, impact angle, and the distance from the impact at which the environmental effects are to be calculated, and the target type of sedimentary rock or crystalline rock. These parameters were chosen with support from The Vichada Structure dimensions obtained from remote sensing data interpretation, regional geologic mapping and interpreted satellite data and ground-based gravity and magnetic anomalies. The calculations are based on compiled novel algorithms for estimating the thermal radiation emitted by the impact-generated vapor plume or fireball, and the intensity of seismic shaking. Model validation is performed by obtaining the approximates various dimensions of the Vichada impact crater and ejecta deposit, as well as estimating the severity of the air blasting both crater-forming and air burst impacts. We illustrate the utility of the calculations by examining the predicted environmental consequences in seven localities of the Colombian territory, through hypothetical impact scenarios occurring in Cumaribo and Puerto Carreño (Vichada), Puerto Inirida (Guainía), Puerto Gaitán and Villavicencio (Meta), Mitú (Vaupes) and Bogotá, D.C. It is concluded that the most wide-reaching environmental consequence is seismic shaking. Both ejecta deposit thickness and air-blast pressure decay much more rapidly with distance than with seismic ground motion. Close to the impact site, the most devastating effect is from thermal radiation; however, the curvature of the Earth implies that distant localities are shielded from direct thermal radiation because the fireball is below the horizon. These results would guide further detailed fieldwork hunting for direct impact crater evidence and interpret high-resolution geophysical studies and borehole that could be carried out in the probable Vichada impact crater area shortly.
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Fortington, Lauren V., Liam West, Damian Morgan, and Caroline F. Finch. "Implementing automated external defibrillators into community sports clubs/facilities: a cross-sectional survey of community club member preparedness for medical emergencies." BMJ Open Sport & Exercise Medicine 5, no. 1 (June 2019): e000536. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjsem-2019-000536.
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ObjectiveThere is a growing focus on ensuring the availability of automated external defibrillators (AED) in sport settings to assist in preventing sudden cardiac death. For the AED to be most effective, understanding how best to integrate it with wider risk management and emergency action plans (EAP) is needed. The aim of this survey was to identify sports club/facility member knowledge of AED use and club EAPs, 6 months following participation in a government-funded AED provision and cardiopulmonary resuscitation training programme.MethodsCross-sectional survey of community sports clubs and facilities in Victoria, Australia. Included participants were members of sports club/facilities that had been provided with an AED and basic first aid training as part of a government programme to increase access to, and awareness of, AEDs. A descriptive analysis of availability of EAPs and AEDs, together with practical scenarios on AED use and maintenance, is presented.ResultsFrom 191 respondents, more than half (56%) had no previous training in AED use. Knowledge on availability of an EAP at the club/facility was varied: 53% said yes and knew where it was located, while 41% did not have, or did not know if they had, an EAP. Responses to clinical scenarios for use of AED were mostly accurate, with the exception of being unsure how to respond when ‘a participant falls to the ground and is making shaking movements.’ConclusionsWhile there were positive outcomes from this programme, such as half of the respondents being newly trained in emergency first aid response, further improvements are required to assist members with embedding their AED into their club/facility EAP and practices.
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Alzabeebee, Saif, and Davide Forcellini. "Numerical Simulations of the Seismic Response of a RC Structure Resting on Liquefiable Soil." Buildings 11, no. 9 (August 25, 2021): 379. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings11090379.
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The seismic response of buildings resting on liquefiable soil is a complex problem that is still poorly understood despite numerous studies on the topic. This paper attempts to enhance the understanding of this phenomenon by simulating an RC structure resting on liquefiable soil and subjected to seismic shakes. The solid-fluid fully coupled analysis was conducted with OpenSeesPL utilizing 58 earthquake records to simulate a wide range of shaking scenarios. In addition, the effect of the soil density and the thickness of the liquefiable layer were examined. It was noted that the liquefaction-induced settlement of the building increased as peak ground acceleration (PGA) increased, where the percentage increase ranged between 2.5% and 888.0% depending on the soil density, thickness of the liquefiable layer, PGA and the predominant frequency of the seismic shake. However, a scatter of the relationship between the PGA and the liquefaction-induced settlement was also noted due to the effect of the predominant frequency of the seismic shake. In addition, a reduced effect from soil density on the liquefaction-induced settlement was observed, where the settlement changed by up to 55% as the soil density changed from loose to medium, and by 68% as the density changed from loose to dense. Additionally, the results of the lateral displacement of the building did not show a definite trend with the increase in PGA, which could be attributed to the complex interaction between PGA amplification and the predominant frequency of the seismic shake as the liquefiable soil layer thickness changed.
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Konovalov, Alexey, Yuriy Gensiorovskiy, and Andrey Stepnov. "Hazard-Consistent Earthquake Scenario Selection for Seismic Slope Stability Assessment." Sustainability 12, no. 12 (June 18, 2020): 4977. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12124977.
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Design ground shaking intensity, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) maps, is most commonly used as a triggering condition to analyze slope stability under seismic loading. Uncertainties that are associated with expected ground motion levels are often ignored. This study considers an improved, fully probabilistic approach for earthquake scenario selection. The given method suggests the determination of the occurrence probability of various ground motion levels and the probability of landsliding for these ground motion parameters, giving the total probability of slope failure under seismic loading in a certain time interval. The occurrence hazard deaggregation technique is proposed for the selection of the ground shaking level, as well as the magnitude and source-to-site distance of a design earthquake, as these factors most probably trigger slope failure within the time interval of interest. An example application of the approach is provided for a slope near the highway in the south of Sakhalin Island (Russia). The total probability of earthquake-induced slope failure in the next 50 years was computed to be in the order of 16%. The scenario peak ground acceleration value estimated from the disaggregated earthquake-induced landslide hazard is 0.15g, while the 475-year seismic hazard curve predicts 0.3g. The case study highlights the significant difference between ground shaking scenario levels in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the considered fully probabilistic approach.
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Chen, Rui, David M. Branum, and Chris J. Wills. "Annualized and Scenario Earthquake Loss Estimations for California." Earthquake Spectra 29, no. 4 (November 2013): 1183–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/082911eqs210m.
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We update annualized and scenario earthquake loss estimations for California using HAZUS, a loss estimation tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and evaluate the effects of changes in input ground motions over the last decade on estimated earthquake losses. Our estimated statewide average earthquake loss to building stock from shaking is approximately $2.8 billion per year, with 32% of it occurring in Los Angeles County and 23% in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont metropolitan statistical area. This estimate reflects a 25% to 28% reduction because of changes in input ground motions. Scenario results indicate a 28% to 63% reduction in estimated building economic losses because of changes in input ground motions. Changes in input ground motions are mainly attributed to the use of next generation attenuation relations and, to a lesser extent, to updated earthquake source models and differing approaches for incorporating near-surface site effects.
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Eckert, Eric, Michelle Scalise, John N. Louie, and Kenneth D. Smith. "Exploring Basin Amplification within the Reno Metropolitan Area in Northern Nevada Using a Magnitude 6.3 ShakeOut Scenario." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112, no. 1 (October 26, 2021): 457–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200309.
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ABSTRACT The Reno metropolitan area (located within the Truckee Meadows in northern Nevada) is subjected to significant seismic risk, primarily resulting from the region’s proximity to the Mount Rose fault system and the urban area’s presence within a large, thin (<1 km thick) sedimentary basin. Numerous paleoseismic studies have shown the Mount Rose fault system has a history of producing large Holocene earthquakes. To help explore this hazard, we used SW4, a physics-based wave-equation modeling tool, to develop the Reno ShakeOut Scenario. The scenario uses a grid with a minimum spacing of 20 m with eight points per minimum wavelength to perform a full 3D simulation for a potential magnitude 6.3 earthquake within the Mount Rose fault system. The calculation assumes a minimum shear-wave velocity (VSmin) of 500 m/s and is accurate up to 3.125 Hz. Results indicate that there is a potential for widespread and variable ground shaking at modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) magnitudes between VII and VIII (very strong to severe ground shaking), with some areas achieving violent (IX and X) motions. Distributions of high shaking are controlled by proximity to the rupture, geotechnical shear-wave velocity, topography; and significantly, basin geometry. Comparisons between SW4 peak ground velocity (PGV) computations, and PGV estimates calculated from the Campbell and Bozorgnia empirical ground-motion model emphasize the degree to which very thin basins may result in greater hazard than is currently predicted. This information helps improve our understanding of regional risk by highlighting these significant basin effects and the local variability that is likely to occur with any large seismic event.
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Braganza, Sebastian, and Gail M. Atkinson. "A model for estimating amplification effects on seismic hazards and scenario ground motions in southern Ontario." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 44, no. 6 (June 2017): 441–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2016-0471.
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Site amplification effects in southern Ontario are highly variable and strongly influence felt effects and damage potential. Site parameters such as shear-wave velocity in the top 30 metres of soil (VS30), traditionally used to estimate site amplification, are not well known in this region. Thus, regional maps of shaking potential and seismic hazard are often overgeneralized. In this study, a site amplification model based on peak frequency (fpeak) is compared to one based on VS30, as given by the 2015 National Building Code of Canada (NBCC). Earthquakes and scenario events are used to estimate ground motions and shaking intensities. It is shown that both models generally predict similar felt intensities but show significant differences in their predicted amplification of ground motions as a function of frequency. The results of this study support the use of fpeak as a site response variable for estimating amplification effects in southern Ontario.
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Murray, Jessica R., Eric M. Thompson, Annemarie S. Baltay, and Sarah E. Minson. "The Impact of 3D Finite-Fault Information on Ground-Motion Forecasting for Earthquake Early Warning." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 112, no. 2 (November 30, 2021): 779–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120210162.
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ABSTRACT We identify aspects of finite-source parameterization that strongly affect the accuracy of estimated ground motion for earthquake early warning (EEW). EEW systems aim to alert users to impending shaking before it reaches them. The U.S. West Coast EEW system, ShakeAlert, currently uses two algorithms based on seismic data to characterize the earthquake’s location, magnitude, and origin time, treating it as a point or line source. From this information, ShakeAlert calculates shaking intensity and alerts locations where shaking estimates exceed a threshold. Several geodetic EEW algorithms under development would provide 3D finite-fault information. We investigate conditions under which this information produces sufficiently better intensity estimates to potentially improve alerting. Using scenario crustal and subduction interface sources, we (1) identify the most influential source geometry parameters for an EEW algorithm’s shaking forecast, and (2) assess the intensity alert thresholds and magnitude ranges for which more detailed source characterization affects alert accuracy. We find that alert regions determined using 3D-source representations of correct magnitude and faulting mechanism are generally more accurate than those obtained using line sources. If a line-source representation is used and magnitude is calculated from the estimated length, then incorrect length estimates significantly degrade alert region accuracy. In detail, the value of 3D-source characterization depends on the user’s chosen alert threshold, tectonic regime, and faulting style. For the suite of source models we tested, the error in shaking intensity introduced by incorrect geometry could reach levels comparable to the intrinsic uncertainty in ground-motion calculations (e.g., 0.5–1.3 modified Mercalli intensity [MMI] units for MMI 4.5) but, especially for crustal sources, was often less. For subduction interface sources, 3D representations substantially improved alert area accuracy compared to line sources, and incorrect geometry parameters were more likely to cause error in calculated shaking intensity that exceeded uncertainties.
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Antonielli, Benedetta, Francesca Bozzano, Matteo Fiorucci, Salomon Hailemikael, Roberto Iannucci, Salvatore Martino, Stefano Rivellino, and Gabriele Scarascia Mugnozza. "Engineering-Geological Features Supporting a Seismic-Driven Multi-Hazard Scenario in the Lake Campotosto Area (L’Aquila, Italy)." Geosciences 11, no. 3 (February 27, 2021): 107. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences11030107.
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This paper aims to describe the seismic-driven multi-hazard scenario of the Lake Campotosto artificial basin (Abruzzo Region, Central Italy), and it can represent a preparatory study for a quantitative multi-hazard analysis. A comprehensive multi-hazard scenario considers all the effects that can occur following the base ground shaking, providing a holistic approach to assessing the real hazard potential and helping to improve management of disaster mitigation. The study area might be affected by a complex earthquake-induced chain of geologic hazards, such as the seismic shaking, the surface faulting of the Gorzano Mt. Fault, which is very close to one of the three dams that form the Lake Campotosto, and by the earthquake-triggered landslides of different sizes and typologies. These hazards were individually and qualitatively analyzed, using data from an engineering-geological survey and a geomechanical classification of the rock mass. With regard to the seismic shaking, a quantitative evaluation of the seismic response of the Poggio Cancelli valley, in the northern part of Lake Campotosto, was performed, highlighting different seismic amplification phenomena due to morphologic and stratigraphic features. Some insights about the possible multi-hazard approaches are also discussed.
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Rodgers, Arthur J., Arben Pitarka, Ramesh Pankajakshan, Bjorn Sjögreen, and N. Anders Petersson. "Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of Mw 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 6 (August 11, 2020): 2862–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200147.
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ABSTRACT Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. We report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra (Bayless and Abrahamson, 2018, 2019a). At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low VS material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface VS of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.
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Felix, Raquel P., Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer. "Tsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrust." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 5 (May 18, 2022): 1665–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1665-2022.
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Abstract. The tsunami hazard posed by the Flores back-arc thrust, which runs along the northern coast of the islands of Bali and Lombok, Indonesia, is poorly studied compared to the Sunda Megathrust, situated ∼250 km to the south of the islands. However, the 2018 Lombok earthquake sequence demonstrated the seismic potential of the western Flores Thrust when a fault ramp beneath the island of Lombok ruptured in two Mw 6.9 earthquakes. Although the uplift in these events mostly occurred below land, the sequence still generated local tsunamis along the northern coast of Lombok. Historical records show that the Flores fault system in the Lombok and Bali region has generated at least six ≥Ms 6.5 tsunamigenic earthquakes since 1800 CE. Hence, it is important to assess the possible tsunami hazard represented by this fault system. Here, we focus on the submarine fault segment located between the islands of Lombok and Bali (below the Lombok Strait). We assess modeled tsunami patterns generated by fault slip in six earthquake scenarios (slip of 1–5 m, representing Mw 7.2–7.9+) using deterministic modeling, with a focus on impacts on the capital cities of Mataram, Lombok, and Denpasar, Bali, which lie on the coasts facing the strait. We use a geologically constrained earthquake model informed by the Lombok earthquake sequence, together with a high-resolution bathymetry dataset developed by combining direct measurements from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) with sounding measurements from the official nautical charts for Indonesia. Our results show that fault rupture in this region could trigger a tsunami reaching Mataram in <9 min and Denpasar in ∼ 23–27 min, with multiple waves. For an earthquake with 3–5 m of coseismic slip, Mataram and Denpasar experience maximum wave heights of ∼ 1.6–2.7 and ∼ 0.6–1.4 m, respectively. Furthermore, our earthquake models indicate that both cities would experience coseismic subsidence of 20–40 cm, exacerbating their exposure to both the tsunami and other coastal hazards. Overall, Mataram is more exposed than Denpasar to high tsunami waves arriving quickly from the fault source. To understand how a tsunami would affect Mataram, we model the associated inundation using the 5 m slip model and show that Mataram is inundated ∼ 55–140 m inland along the northern coast and ∼230 m along the southern coast, with maximum flow depths of ∼ 2–3 m. Our study highlights that the early tsunami arrival in Mataram, Lombok, gives little time for residents to evacuate. Raising their awareness about the potential for locally generated tsunamis and the need for evacuation plans is important to help them respond immediately after experiencing strong ground shaking.
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Grasso, Salvatore, and Michele Maugeri. "The Seismic Microzonation of the City of Catania (Italy) for the Etna Scenario Earthquake (M = 6.2) of 20 February 1818." Earthquake Spectra 28, no. 2 (May 2012): 573–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.4000013.
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Based on the seismic history of the city of Catania (Italy), the Etna earthquake of 20 February 1818 ( IMCS = VIII–IX, MS = 6.2) has been considered as an earthquake scenario. Despite its lower magnitude, the Etna 1818 earthquake can be accounted for in the seismic hazard assessment of Catania, since it may cause heavy damage to the city. The epicenter was located along the southeastern flanks of the Etna Volcano, close to the municipal area of the city of Catania. The ground-response analysis at the surface has been obtained by one-dimensional (1-D) nonlinear models. According to the response spectra obtained through the application of the nonlinear models, the city of Catania has been divided into zones with different peak ground acceleration at the surface. A ground-shaking map for the urban area of the city of Catania was generated via GIS for the 1818 earthquake scenario.
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Nunziata, C., and M. R. Costanzo. "Ground Shaking Scenario at the Historical Center of Napoli (Southern Italy) for the 1456 and 1688 Earthquakes." Pure and Applied Geophysics 177, no. 7 (January 31, 2020): 3175–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-020-02426-y.
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Wein, Anne, and Adam Rose. "Economic Resilience Lessons from the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 559–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3582849.
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Following a damaging earthquake, “business interruption” (BI)—reduced production of goods and services—begins and continues long after the ground shaking stops. Economic resilience reduces BI losses by making the best use of the resources available at a given point in time (static resilience) or by speeding recovery through repair and reconstruction (dynamic resilience), in contrast to mitigation that prevents damage in the first place. Economic resilience is an important concept to incorporate into economic loss modeling and in recovery and contingency planning. Economic resilience framework includes the applicability of resilience strategies to production inputs and output, demand- and supply-side effects, inherent and adaptive abilities, and levels of the economy. We use our resilience framework to organize and share strategies that enhance economic resilience, identify overlooked resilience strategies, and present evidence and structure of resilience strategies for economic loss modelers. Numerous resilience strategies are compiled from stakeholder discussions about the ShakeOut Scenario (Jones et. al. 2008). Modeled results of ShakeOut BI sector losses reveal variable effectiveness of resilience strategies for lengthy disruptions caused by fire-damaged buildings and water service outages. Resilience is a complement to mitigation and may, in fact, have cost and all-hazards advantages.
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Morikawa, Nobuyuki, Shigeki Senna, Yuzuru Hayakawa, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara. "Shaking Maps for Scenario Earthquakes by Applying the Upgraded Version of the Strong Ground Motion Prediction Method “Recipe”." Pure and Applied Geophysics 168, no. 3-4 (May 6, 2010): 645–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0147-4.
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Narayan, J. P., and Kamal. "A scenario of ground shaking hazard in intracratonic circular basins developed by basin-generated surface waves: an earthquake engineering perspective." Natural Hazards 92, no. 3 (April 5, 2018): 1841–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3284-1.
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Porter, Keith, Lucile Jones, Dale Cox, James Goltz, Ken Hudnut, Dennis Mileti, Sue Perry, et al. "The ShakeOut Scenario: A Hypothetical Mw7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 239–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3563624.
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In 2008, an earthquake-planning scenario document was released by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and California Geological Survey that hypothesizes the occurrence and effects of a Mw7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was created by more than 300 scientists and engineers. Fault offsets reach 13 m and up to 8 m at lifeline crossings. Physics-based modeling was used to generate maps of shaking intensity, with peak ground velocities of 3 m/sec near the fault and exceeding 0.5 m/sec over 10,000 km2. A custom HAZUS®MH analysis and 18 special studies were performed to characterize the effects of the earthquake on the built environment. The scenario posits 1,800 deaths and 53,000 injuries requiring emergency room care. Approximately 1,600 fires are ignited, resulting in the destruction of 200 million square feet of the building stock, the equivalent of 133,000 single-family homes. Fire contributes $87 billion in property and business interruption loss, out of the total $191 billion in economic loss, with most of the rest coming from shake-related building and content damage ($46 billion) and business interruption loss from water outages ($24 billion). Emergency response activities are depicted in detail, in an innovative grid showing activities versus time, a new format introduced in this study.
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Gómez Zapata, Juan Camilo, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, Henning Lilienkamp, Simantini Shinde, Paula Aguirre, and Hernán Santa María. "Epistemic uncertainty of probabilistic building exposure compositions in scenario-based earthquake loss models." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 20, no. 5 (January 20, 2022): 2401–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01312-9.
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AbstractIn seismic risk assessment, the sources of uncertainty associated with building exposure modelling have not received as much attention as other components related to hazard and vulnerability. Conventional practices such as assuming absolute portfolio compositions (i.e., proportions per building class) from expert-based assumptions over aggregated data crudely disregard the contribution of uncertainty of the exposure upon earthquake loss models. In this work, we introduce the concept that the degree of knowledge of a building stock can be described within a Bayesian probabilistic approach that integrates both expert-based prior distributions and data collection on individual buildings. We investigate the impact of the epistemic uncertainty in the portfolio composition on scenario-based earthquake loss models through an exposure-oriented logic tree arrangement based on synthetic building portfolios. For illustrative purposes, we consider the residential building stock of Valparaíso (Chile) subjected to seismic ground-shaking from one subduction earthquake. We have found that building class reconnaissance, either from prior assumptions by desktop studies with aggregated data (top–down approach), or from building-by-building data collection (bottom–up approach), plays a fundamental role in the statistical modelling of exposure. To model the vulnerability of such a heterogeneous building stock, we require that their associated set of structural fragility functions handle multiple spectral periods. Thereby, we also discuss the relevance and specific uncertainty upon generating either uncorrelated or spatially cross-correlated ground motion fields within this framework. We successively show how various epistemic uncertainties embedded within these probabilistic exposure models are differently propagated throughout the computed direct financial losses. This work calls for further efforts to redesign desktop exposure studies, while also highlighting the importance of exposure data collection with standardized and iterative approaches.
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Candia, Gabriel, Jorge Macedo, Miguel A. Jaimes, and Carolina Magna‐Verdugo. "A New State‐of‐the‐Art Platform for Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment." Seismological Research Letters 90, no. 6 (September 11, 2019): 2262–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190025.
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ABSTRACT A new computational platform for seismic hazard assessment is presented. The platform, named SeismicHazard, allows characterizing the intensity, uncertainty, and likelihood of ground motions from subduction‐zone (shallow interface and intraslab) and crustal‐zone earthquakes, considering site‐specific as well as regional‐based assessments. The platform is developed as an object‐oriented MATLAB graphical user interface, and it features several state‐of‐the‐art capabilities for probabilistic and deterministic (scenario‐based) seismic hazard assessment. The platform integrates the latest developments in performance‐based earthquake engineering for seismic hazard assessment, including seismic zonation models, ground‐motion models (GMMs), ground‐motion correlation structures, and the estimation of design spectra (uniform hazard spectra, classical conditional mean spectrum (CMS) for a unique tectonic setting). In addition to these standard capabilities, the platform supports advanced features, not commonly found in existing seismic hazard codes, such as (a) computation of source parameters from earthquake catalogs, (b) vector‐probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (c) hazard evaluation based on conditional GMMs and user‐defined GMMs, (d) uncertainty treatment in the median ground motions through continuous GMM distributions, (e) regional shaking fields, and (f) estimation of CMS considering multiple GMMs and multiple tectonic settings. The results from the platform have been validated against accepted and well‐documented benchmark solutions.
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Scrivner, Craig W., and Donald V. Helmberger. "Preliminary work on an early warning and rapid response program for moderate earthquakes." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, no. 4 (August 1, 1995): 1257–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0850041257.
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Abstract Warning of imminent ground shaking due to a large earthquake would be useful to a variety of agencies. This kind of ground-motion prediction is possible in southern California for events with magnitude less than 6, where path effects dominate. The 28 June 1991 Sierra Madre earthquake is presented as a test case for this concept. A single-station inversion of the record from the Pasadena station 20 km SW of the epicenter produces reasonable source parameters for the event. With these source parameters and a library of Green's functions calculated for an average southern California crustal model, ground motions can be predicted throughout the region. In particular, since the peak displacement for the Sierra Madre event occurs at Pasadena before ground motion begins at a station near the San Andreas Fault in San Bernardino, ground motions near the San Andreas Fault can be calculated before the seismic energy has propagated into the area. Considering this scenario in the reverse direction, records from a station near an earthquake on the San Andreas Fault could be used to predict ground motions in the metropolitan Los Angeles area. Broadband, high-dynamic-range seismic instruments produce high-quality records for events over a wide magnitude range. Thus, the development of a warning system can be approached in stages, starting with small events. With path effects determined by modeling moderate-size events, work can begin on developing distributed fault models to predict ground motions of great earthquakes.
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Soriano, C. M., and P. E. Quinay. "Development of Fragility Curves for the Underground PVC Water Distribution Pipes in Quezon City and Damage Estimation under a Magnitude 7.2 Scenario Earthquake." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1091, no. 1 (November 1, 2022): 012005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1091/1/012005.
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Quezon City is traversed by the West Valley Fault System (WVFS) that has the capability of generating a magnitude 7.2 earthquake known as “The Big One”. It has an extensive water distribution network that is very susceptible to damages that will be caused by the ground shaking component of the M 7.2 earthquake. This study focuses on determining the behavior and estimating the damage of underground polyvinyl chloride (PVC) water pipes due to the M 7.2 earthquake by using appropriate empirical repair rates (RR) and developing fragility curves. The appropriate empirical RR equation was determined by comparing the results of selected PVC RR equations and the simulation using line-element modeling. The PGV ranges from 23.10 cm/s to 64.49 cm/s as determined using the Boore and Atkinson (2008) ground motion prediction equation. Using the results from the empirical and simulations methods, the equation by the American Lifelines Alliance (2001) was determined to be the appropriate empirical RR equation for the study area. The expected average repair rate of PVC is 0.05 repairs/km length of pipe or an estimated 84 total PVC pipe repairs in the city. Three fragility curves were generated showing the relationship of PGV and RR which is an important tool in estimating the underground pipe damages with respect to the M 7.2 earthquake and other future earthquakes of similar properties.
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Fujimoto, Kazuo, and Saburoh Midorikawa. "Ground-shaking mapping for a scenario earthquake considering effects of geological conditions: a case study for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu, Japan earthquake." Earthquake Engineering & Structural Dynamics 31, no. 12 (2002): 2103–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/eqe.207.
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Haider, Syed Muhammad Bilal, Zafarullah Nizamani, Chun-Chieh Yip, and Jing-Ying Wong. "NONLINEAR DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF TWO STOREY RC BUILDING MODEL." Jurnal Teknologi 83, no. 4 (June 7, 2021): 51–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.11113/jurnalteknologi.v83.16390.
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Peninsular Malaysia lies in a low seismic zone, but its building structures had come across the concrete deterioration due to the seismic ground motion originated from far or near field. Notably, most of the building structures in this country are designed based on wind load only. Moreover, current practice to analyze or design a building such as FEMA 368 and EC8 underestimated the effect of repeated excitations. These guidelines only considered single vibrations to evaluate the framed structure. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the performance of private educational institute reinforced concrete building with generic 3D two storey frame structure under multiple seismic motions. Structural model was examined under series of earthquake motions which include pre-shock, main shock and aftershock scenario. Total of 7 seismic ground motions were selected to quantify the structural frame model by nonlinear dynamic time history analyses. Pseudo-dynamic ground motions were recorded on shaking table ranging from 0.18 g to 0.82 g were applied onto the building model for assessment. The outcome of this study has identified that the low-rise building model survived at higher PGA values. Moderate damages (0.25 ≤ DI < 0.40) were recorded after passing through multiple ground motions. Moreover, low seismic vibrations with large ground movement had caused ground floor storey act as soft storey. The study concluded that low rise building model had higher tendency to absorb lower to higher ‘g’ values and resist the earthquake loading due to the strength of framed structure.
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Uglešić, Jakov Stanislav, Snježana Markušić, Božo Padovan, and Davor Stanko. "Semi-empirical estimation of the Zagreb ML 5.5 earthquake (2020) ground motion amplification by 1D equivalent linear site response analysis." Geofizika 38, no. 2 (January 24, 2022): 147–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.15233/gfz.2021.38.9.
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The 22 March 2020 Zagreb ML 5.5 earthquake ground shaking resulted in damage to buildings and infrastructure. The most affected buildings were older and cultural heritage buildings (built before 1963) in the old city centre with significant damage extent in the epicentral zone (southeastern foothills of Medvednica Mt.). This study presents site response analysis on the realistic site profiles from the epicentre towards the accelerometric stations QUHS and QARH and comparison with strong motion data recorded during the Zagreb 2020 earthquake. Semi-empirical estimation of the ground motion amplification (i.e., peak ground acceleration at surface) showed that modelled and recorded values are comparable. Moreover, we present 2D model of peak ground acceleration at surface (PGAsurf ) variation for the superimposed site profile from the epicentre towards two accelerometric stations. Ground motion amplification for the Zagreb ML 5.5 earthquake scenario showed that PGAsurf is larger by a factor of 2 than the bedrock value (approx. 0.35 g in the epicentre and 0.20 g on the 12 km distant accelerometric station). This study is a contribution to better understanding of the Zagreb ML 5.5 earthquake effects and significance of local site effects in the damage extent, something that combined with older and heritage buildings resulted in high economic consequences. Therefore, it is important that site-specific ground motion simulation and seismic microzonation of the Zagreb continues with installation of an accelerometric array. This is very important for earthquake retrofitting and resilience of the low, mid- and high-rise buildings with particular care of cultural and historical buildings as well for the further urban planning.