Journal articles on the topic 'Ground motion scenario'
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Tarbali, Karim, and Brendon A. Bradley. "Representative ground-motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 47, no. 4 (December 31, 2014): 231–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.47.4.231-252.
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In this paper, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. For each considered scenario rupture, ensembles of 20 and 7 ground motions are selected using the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean and distribution of ground motion intensity which such scenarios could impose. These scenario-based ground motion sets can be used to complement ground motions which are often selected in conjunction with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, in order to understand the performance of structures for the question “what if this fault ruptures?”
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Maeda, Takahiro, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara. "Seismic Hazard Visualization from Big Simulation Data: Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data." Journal of Disaster Research 12, no. 2 (March 16, 2017): 233–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0233.
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This paper describes a method of extracting the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and a seismic source model, based on ground-motion simulation data output in planar form for many earthquake scenarios, and the construction of a parallel distributed processing system where this method is implemented. The extraction is realized using two-stage clustering. In the first stage, the ground-motion indices and scenario parameters are used as input data to cluster the earthquake scenarios within each evaluation mesh. In the second stage, the meshes are clustered based on the similarity of earthquake-scenario clustering. Because the mesh clusters can be correlated to the geographical space, it is possible to extract the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and the scenario parameters by examining the relation between the mesh clusters and scenario clusters obtained by the two-stage clustering. The results are displayed visually; they are saved as GeoTIFF image files. The system was applied to the long-period ground-motion simulation data for hypothetical megathrust earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. This confirmed that the relation between the extracted ground-motion characteristics of each area and scenario parameters is in agreement with the results of ground-motion simulations.
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Wirth, Erin A., Alex Grant, Nasser A. Marafi, and Arthur D. Frankel. "Ensemble ShakeMaps for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 1 (November 18, 2020): 199–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200240.
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Abstract We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies <1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies >1 Hz) and uniform site amplification factors to create broadband seismograms from this set of 30 earthquake scenarios. Here, we expand on this work by computing site-specific amplification factors for the Pacific Northwest and applying these factors to the ground-motion estimates derived from Frankel et al. (2018). In addition, we use empirical ground-motion models (GMMs) to expand the ground-shaking estimates beyond the original model extent of Frankel et al. (2018) to cover all of Washington State, Oregon, northern California, and southern British Columbia to facilitate the use of these ensemble ShakeMaps in region-wide risk assessments and scenario planning exercises. Using this updated set of 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, we present ensemble ShakeMaps for the median, 2nd, 16th, 84th, and 98th percentile ground-motion intensity measures. Whereas traditional scenario ShakeMaps are based on a single hypothetical earthquake rupture, our ensemble ShakeMaps take advantage of a logic-tree approach to estimating ground motions from multiple earthquake rupture scenarios. In addition, 3D earthquake simulations capture important features such as strong ground-motion amplification in the Pacific Northwest’s sedimentary basins, which are not well represented in the empirical GMMs that compose traditional scenario ShakeMaps. Overall, our results highlight the importance of strong-motion-generating subevents for coastal sites, as well as the amplification of long-period ground shaking in deep sedimentary basins, compared with previous scenario ShakeMaps for Cascadia.
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Anderson, John G. "Benefits of scenario ground motion maps." Engineering Geology 48, no. 1-2 (November 1997): 43–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s0013-7952(97)81913-8.
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Thomson, Ethan M., Robin L. Lee, and Brendon A. Bradley. "Ground motion simulations of Hope fault earthquakes." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 52, no. 4 (December 1, 2019): 152–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.52.4.152-171.
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This paper examines ground motions for a major potential Mw7.51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physics based simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaik¯oura Mw7.8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region and similar levels of ground motion in Canterbury. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes.
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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Toshihiko Hayakawa, Satsuki Shimono, and Sho Akagi. "Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 2 (March 19, 2018): 254–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254.
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We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorized into 30 clusters. In addition, based on clustering results, we determined that extracting relationships between principal components and scenario parameters is possible. Furthermore, by utilizing these relationships, it may be possible to easily estimate the approximate ground-motion distribution from the principal components of arbitrary sets of scenario parameters.
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Ghofrani, Hadi, Gail M. Atkinson, Luc Chouinard, Philippe Rosset, and Kristy F. Tiampo. "Scenario shakemaps for Montreal." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 42, no. 7 (July 2015): 463–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/cjce-2014-0496.
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Montreal has significant seismic risk due to the combination of moderate seismicity, high population density, and vulnerable infrastructure. An important tool in damage and risk assessment is a scenario shakemap, which shows the expected ground shaking intensity distribution patterns. In this study, we use regional ground motion and site response evaluations to generate scenario shakemaps for Montreal. The impact of event location on expected ground motions and intensities was tested by considering the occurrence of a scenario (a given magnitude event) at various locations, where the scenarios are defined based on an analysis of the most likely future event locations. Variability in near surface geology plays an important role in earthquake ground shaking; we use microzonation information from Montreal to assess the expected site amplification effects. The results of this study may be used as input to seismic risk studies for Montreal.
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Baby, Ajin, and Manish Shrikhande. "Wavelet Packet Characterization of Scenario Earthquake Ground Motions." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 11, no. 03 (August 14, 2017): 1750006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431117500063.
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With increased emphasis on performance-based seismic design, the need for appropriate ground motion time histories for use in nonlinear dynamic analyses is felt accutely. However, it is generally not possible to get a suitable recorded time history consistent with the estimated hazard at a specific site. The ground motion prediction models are therefore derived/developed from a statistical analysis of recorded ground motion for a variety of source and site conditions to address this need. Most often, the ground motion prediction models are developed to model the response spectrum amplitudes at a set of natural periods and the ground motion time history, if required, is then generated to be consistent with this predicted response spectrum. These simulated time histories often lack in modeling the wave arrivals and temporal variation in the distribution of energy with respect to frequency. In this paper, we present a wavelet-based ground motion prediction model for directly generating ground motion time history that is consistent with the postulated scenario earthquake at a site.
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Graves, Robert W., Brad T. Aagaard, and Kenneth W. Hudnut. "The ShakeOut Earthquake Source and Ground Motion Simulations." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 273–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3570677.
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The ShakeOut Scenario is premised upon the detailed description of a hypothetical Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault and the associated simulated ground motions. The main features of the scenario, such as its endpoints, magnitude, and gross slip distribution, were defined through expert opinion and incorporated information from many previous studies. Slip at smaller length scales, rupture speed, and rise time were constrained using empirical relationships and experience gained from previous strong-motion modeling. Using this rupture description and a 3-D model of the crust, broadband ground motions were computed over a large region of Southern California. The largest simulated peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) generally range from 0.5 to 1.0 g and 100 to 250 cm/s, respectively, with the waveforms exhibiting strong directivity and basin effects. Use of a slip-predictable model results in a high static stress drop event and produces ground motions somewhat higher than median level predictions from NGA ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs).
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Raghukanth, S., J. Dixit, and S. Dash. "Ground motion for scenario earthquakes at Guwahati city." Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Hungarica 46, no. 3 (September 2011): 326–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/ageod.46.2011.3.5.
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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Sho Akagi, and Toshihiko Hayakawa. "Cluster Analysis of the Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data: Application of the Sagami Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 3 (March 28, 2019): 435–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0435.
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A clustering method that classifies earthquake scenarios and the local area on the basis of similarities in the spatial distribution of ground motion was applied to long-period ground-motion data computed by a seismic wave propagation simulation. The simulation utilized a large number of seismic source models and a three-dimensional velocity structure model in which megathrust earthquakes in the Sagami Trough were assumed. The relationship between the clusters, earthquake scenario parameters, and the velocity structure model was examined. In addition, the relationship between the earthquake scenario clusters for a case in which actual strong-motion observation points were treated as a mesh and those for a case in which an entire set of meshes was investigated, and a spatial interpolation method that estimated a ground-motion distribution from strong-motion observation data was examined.
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Lacour, Maxime, and Norman A. Abrahamson. "Efficient Propagation of Epistemic Uncertainty in the Median Ground‐Motion Model in Probabilistic Hazard Calculations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 5 (July 16, 2019): 2063–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180327.
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Abstract A computationally efficient methodology for propagating the epistemic uncertainty in the median ground motion in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is developed using the polynomial chaos (PC) approach. For this application, the epistemic uncertainty in the median ground motion for a specific scenario is assumed to be lognormally distributed and fully correlated across earthquake scenarios. In the hazard calculation, a single central ground‐motion model (GMM) is used for the median along with the epistemic standard error of the median for each scenario. A set of PC coefficients is computed for each scenario and each test ground‐motion level. The additional computation burden in computing these PC coefficients depends on the order of the approximation but is less than computing the median ground motion from one additional GMM. With the PC method, the mean and fractiles of the hazard due to the epistemic uncertainty distribution of the median ground motion are computed as a postprocess that is very fast computationally. For typical values of the standard deviation of epistemic uncertainty in the median ground motion (<0.2 natural log units), the methodology accurately estimates the epistemic uncertainty distribution of the hazard over the 1%–99% range. This full epistemic range is not well modeled with just a small number of GMM branches uses in the traditional logic‐tree approach. The PC method provides more accuracy, faster computation, and reduced memory requirements than the traditional approach. For large values of the epistemic uncertainty in the median ground motion, a higher order of the PC expansion may be needed to be included to capture the full range of the epistemic uncertainty.
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Liu, Chenying, and Jorge Macedo. "New conditional, scenario-based, and non-conditional cumulative absolute velocity models for subduction tectonic settings." Earthquake Spectra 38, no. 1 (October 25, 2021): 615–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/87552930211043897.
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The PEER NGA-Sub ground-motion intensity measure database is used to develop new conditional ground-motion models (CGMMs), a set of scenario-based models, and non-conditional models to estimate the cumulative absolute velocity ([Formula: see text]) of ground motions from subduction zone earthquakes. In the CGMMs, the median estimate of [Formula: see text] is conditioned on the estimated peak ground acceleration ([Formula: see text]), the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil ([Formula: see text]), the earthquake magnitude ([Formula: see text]), and the spectral acceleration at the period of 1 s ([Formula: see text]). Multiple scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are developed by combining the CGMMs with pseudo-spectral acceleration ([Formula: see text]) ground-motion models (GMMs) for [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] to directly estimate [Formula: see text] given an earthquake scenario and site conditions. Scenario-based [Formula: see text] models are capable of capturing the complex ground-motion effects (e.g. soil non-linearity and regionalization effects) included in their underlying [Formula: see text]/[Formula: see text] GMMs. This approach also ensures the consistency of the [Formula: see text] estimates with a [Formula: see text] design spectrum. In addition, two non-conditional [Formula: see text] GMMs are developed using Bayesian hierarchical regressions. Finally, we present comparisons between the developed models. The comparisons show that if non-conditional GMMs are properly constrained, they are consistent with scenario-based GMMs. The [Formula: see text] GMMs developed in this study advance the performance-based earthquake engineering practice in areas affected by subduction zone earthquakes.
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Kiratzi, A., Z. Roumelioti, Ch Benetatos, N. Theodulidis, A. Savvaidis, A. Panou, I. N. Tziavos, et al. "SEISIMPACT-THES: A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT OF THE PREFECTURE OF THESSALONIKI." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 36, no. 3 (January 1, 2004): 1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16529.
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In the framework of the "SEISIMPACT-THES" project (Koutoupes et al., 2004; Savvaidis et al., 2004) a GIS database has been designed to include information on a wide range of components related to seismic risk within the broader area of the prefecture of Thessaloniki. One of these components refers to the distribution of strong ground motion produced by large earthquakes and the ability of a potential future user of the database to retrieve information regarding the distribution of strong ground motion from past destructive earthquakes in the area of Thessaloniki, as well as relative information for realistic future scenario earthquakes in the same area. The selection of future scenario earthquakes that may affect this urban region of interest is based on a combined review of historical data, previous probabilistic and deterministic hazard assessments, seismotectonic and microseismicity studies, relocated seismicity in northern Greece and the experience gained from worldwide research. In this study we present the results from hypothetical rupture of one fault that is located at the suburbs of the city, the Asvestochori fault. Empirical relations applicable to Greece (Papazachos & Papazachou 2003), as well as seismicity information are combined to determine the dimensions of the scenario earthquake source. Strong ground motion for the selected scenario is simulated using the stochastic method for finite faults (Beresnev and Atkinson, 1997). Uncertainties due to unknown parameters such as the rupture initiation point and the distribution of slip on the fault plane are taken into account by examining a large number of random scenarios. The average values from these multiple scenarios are then used to compile maps of strong ground motion parameters (e.g. peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration). Although the examined scenario earthquake is moderate in size (Mw 5.2), the level of the resulting strong ground motion parameters is indicative of the potential destructiveness of the examined source. Due to the simplicity in the underlying assumptions of the stochastic method, the results of this study are a first-order approximation to the problem of defining expected shaking in the wider area of Thessaloniki. Other strong motion simulation methods of more deterministic character will also be applied for the same purpose in the framework of the SEISIMPACT-THES project.
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Tarbali, Karim, Brendon A. Bradley, and Jack W. Baker. "Ground Motion Selection in the Near-Fault Region considering Directivity-Induced Pulse Effects." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 2 (May 2019): 759–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/102517eqs223m.
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This paper focuses on the selection of ground motions for seismic response analysis in the near-fault region, where directivity effects are significant. An approach is presented to consider forward directivity velocity pulse effects in seismic hazard analysis without separate hazard calculations for ‘pulse-like’ and ‘non-pulse-like’ ground motions, resulting in a single target hazard (at the site of interest) for ground motion selection. The ability of ground motion selection methods to appropriately select records that exhibit pulse-like ground motions in the near-fault region is then examined. Applications for scenario and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis cases are examined through the computation of conditional seismic demand distributions and the seismic demand hazard. It is shown that ground motion selection based on an appropriate set of intensity measures (IMs) will lead to ground motion ensembles with an appropriate representation of the directivity-included target hazard in terms of IMs, which are themselves affected by directivity pulse effects. This alleviates the need to specify the proportion of pulse-like motions and their pulse periods a priori as strict criteria for ground motion selection.
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Konovalov, Alexey, Yuriy Gensiorovskiy, and Andrey Stepnov. "Hazard-Consistent Earthquake Scenario Selection for Seismic Slope Stability Assessment." Sustainability 12, no. 12 (June 18, 2020): 4977. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12124977.
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Design ground shaking intensity, based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) maps, is most commonly used as a triggering condition to analyze slope stability under seismic loading. Uncertainties that are associated with expected ground motion levels are often ignored. This study considers an improved, fully probabilistic approach for earthquake scenario selection. The given method suggests the determination of the occurrence probability of various ground motion levels and the probability of landsliding for these ground motion parameters, giving the total probability of slope failure under seismic loading in a certain time interval. The occurrence hazard deaggregation technique is proposed for the selection of the ground shaking level, as well as the magnitude and source-to-site distance of a design earthquake, as these factors most probably trigger slope failure within the time interval of interest. An example application of the approach is provided for a slope near the highway in the south of Sakhalin Island (Russia). The total probability of earthquake-induced slope failure in the next 50 years was computed to be in the order of 16%. The scenario peak ground acceleration value estimated from the disaggregated earthquake-induced landslide hazard is 0.15g, while the 475-year seismic hazard curve predicts 0.3g. The case study highlights the significant difference between ground shaking scenario levels in terms of the 475-year seismic hazard map and the considered fully probabilistic approach.
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Macedo, Jorge, Norman Abrahamson, and Jonathan D. Bray. "Arias Intensity Conditional Scaling Ground‐Motion Models for Subduction Zones." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 4 (June 18, 2019): 1343–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180297.
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Abstract Conditional ground‐motion models (CGMMs) for estimating Arias intensity (IA) for earthquakes in subduction zones are developed. The estimate of IA is conditioned in these models on the estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA), the spectral acceleration at T=1 s (SA1), time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the top 30 m (VS30), and magnitude (Mw). Random‐effects regressions are used to develop CGMMs for Japan, Taiwan, South America, and New Zealand. By combining the conditional models of IA with the ground‐motion models (GMMs) for PGA and SA1, the conditional models are converted to scenario‐based GMMs that can be used to estimate the median IA and its standard deviation directly for a given earthquake scenario and site conditions. The conditional scaling approach ensures the estimated IA values are consistent with a design spectrum that may correspond to above‐average spectral values for the controlling scenario. In addition, this approach captures the complex ground‐motion scaling effects found in GMMs for spectral acceleration, such as sediment‐depth effects, soil nonlinearity effects, and regionalization effects, in the developed scenario‐based models for IA. Estimates from the new scenario‐based IA models are compared to those from traditional GMMs for IA in subduction zones.
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Rowshandel, Badie. "Ground Motion Hazard and Scenario Design Earthquakes Including Source Rupture Effects, Case in Study: City of San Francisco." Earthquake Spectra 25, no. 2 (May 2009): 379–414. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3111172.
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Using a probabilistic approach, a directivity model, and the fault and seismicity database of the California Geological Survey, one-second spectral accelerations for a site in the city of San Francisco are computed for several fault rupture types. Five rupture scenarios were investigated. Of these, two cases involve random distribution of hypocenters and two are “limiting cases,” resulting in the lower-bound and the upper-bound ground motions at the site. Deaggregation of hazard in terms of magnitude, distance, epsilon, and directivity for the rupture scenarios studied reveals that three scenario events dominate ground motion hazard at the site. Expressed in terms of modal values of the hazard parameters, these are: (1) [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], (2) [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and (3) [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]. The relative significance of these scenario events varies mostly with rupture type and to lesser degrees with site condition and return period. The first scenario event is a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The second represents the impact of the San Gregorio fault and North-Coast and Offshore segments of the San Andreas fault, and the third reflects the seismicity mainly on the Peninsula and the Santa Cruz Mountains segments of the San Andreas fault.
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Hong, HP, and TJ Liu. "Site, local, and regional earthquake ground motion characterization and application." Advances in Structural Engineering 20, no. 1 (July 28, 2016): 34–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1369433216646004.
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A systematic overview and comparison is presented on the seismic hazard assessment based on the observations and seismic hazard model and the characteristics of earthquake ground motions for a site, a local area, and a region. It shows that the seismic hazard estimated by directly using the observations could differ from that evaluated using an adopted seismic hazard model. It indicates the importance to judiciously select the seismic hazard model, as well as to understand that historical records for a limited period may not fully reflect the seismic hazard. The comparison of the ground motion characteristics is focused on the variability of the ground motion measures, the coherency for record components in two orthogonal orientations, and the spatial correlation and spatial coherency. Procedures for simulating bidirectional excitations at a site and record components at multiple sites for a scenario seismic event are given. The application of the simulated record components to estimate the seismic loss for a portfolio of hypothetical buildings by considering a scenario event is shown, indicating the effectiveness of the presented methodology for seismic loss estimation.
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Somerville, Paul. "Seismic hazard evaluation." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 33, no. 3 (September 30, 2000): 371–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.33.3.371-386.
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This paper reviews concepts and trends in seismic hazard characterization that have emerged in the past decade, and identifies trends and concepts that are anticipated during the coming decade. New methods have been developed for characterizing potential earthquake sources that use geological and geodetic data in conjunction with historical seismicity data. Scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters have been developed to provide a more detailed representation of the earthquake source for ground motion prediction. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude - distance - soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near- fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. The probabilistic approach to characterizing the ground motion that a given site will experience in the future is very compatible with current trends in earthquake engineering and the development of building codes. Performance based design requires a more comprehensive representation of ground motions than has conventionally been used. Ground motions estimates are needed at multiple annual probability levels, and may need to be specified not only by response spectra but also by suites of strong motion time histories for input into time-domain non-linear analyses of structures.
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Atkinson, Gail M., and Igor A. Beresnev. "Compatible ground-motion time histories for new national seismic hazard maps." Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 25, no. 2 (April 1, 1998): 305–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/l97-094.
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Ground-motion time histories which are compatible with the uniform hazard spectra (UHS) provided by the new national seismic hazard maps of the Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) are simulated. Time histories are simulated for the following cities: Halifax, La Malbaie, Québec, Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Prince George, Tofino, Vancouver, and Victoria. The target UHS for the time history simulations are the GSC 5% damped horizontal-component spectra for "firm ground" (Class B) sites for an annual probability of 1/500. The Canadian Council on Earthquake Engineering is currently considering the adoption of these maps as the seismological basis for the earthquake design requirements for future editions of the National Building Code of Canada. It is therefore useful to have compatible time histories for these spectra, in order that dynamic analysis methods requiring the use of time histories can be employed. The simulated records provide a realistic representation of ground motion for the earthquake magnitudes and distances that contribute most strongly to hazard at the selected cities and probability level. For each selected city, two horizontal components are generated for a moderate earthquake nearby, and two horizontal components are generated for a larger earthquake farther away. These records match the short- and long-period ends of the target UHS, respectively. These simulations for local and regional crustal earthquakes are based on a point-source stochastic simulation procedure. For cities in British Columbia, records are also simulated for a scenario M8.5 earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone, using a stochastic finite-fault simulation model. Four different rupture scenarios are considered. The ground motions for this scenario event are not associated with a specific probability level, but current information suggests that their probability of occurrence is comparable to that of the 1/500 UHS (the probabilistic analyses performed for the national hazard maps do not explicitly include the Cascadia subduction event). Thus it would be reasonable to conduct engineering analyses for cities in British Columbia using both the simulated crustal-event motions and the simulated Cascadia-event motions for the Cascadia event. The time histories simulated for this study are available free of charge to all interested parties.Key words: compatible time-histories, seismic hazard, ground motions.
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Karastathis, V. K., G. A. Papadopoulos, T. Novikova, Z. Roumelioti, P. Karmis, and P. Tsombos. "Prediction and evaluation of nonlinear site response with potentially liquefiable layers in the area of Nafplion (Peloponnesus, Greece) for a repeat of historical earthquakes." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 11 (November 17, 2010): 2281–304. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2281-2010.
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Abstract. We examine the possible non-linear behaviour of potentially liquefiable layers at selected sites located within the expansion area of the town of Nafplion, East Peloponnese, Greece. Input motion is computed for three scenario earthquakes, selected on the basis of historical seismicity data, using a stochastic strong ground motion simulation technique, which takes into account the finite dimensions of the earthquake sources. Site-specific ground acceleration synthetics and soil profiles are then used to evaluate the liquefaction potential at the sites of interest. The activation scenario of the Iria fault, which is the closest one to Nafplion (M=6.4), is found to be the most hazardous in terms of liquefaction initiation. In this scenario almost all the examined sites exhibit liquefaction features at depths of 6–12 m. For scenario earthquakes at two more distant seismic sources (Epidaurus fault – M6.3; Xylokastro fault – M6.7) strong ground motion amplification phenomena by the shallow soft soil layer are expected to be observed.
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Aagaard, B. T., R. W. Graves, A. Rodgers, T. M. Brocher, R. W. Simpson, D. Dreger, N. A. Petersson, S. C. Larsen, S. Ma, and R. C. Jachens. "Ground-Motion Modeling of Hayward Fault Scenario Earthquakes, Part II: Simulation of Long-Period and Broadband Ground Motions." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100, no. 6 (December 1, 2010): 2945–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090379.
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Van Dissen, R. J., J. J. Taber, W. R. Stephenson, S. Sritheran, S. A. L. Read, G. H. McVerry, G. D. Dellow, and P. R. Barker. "Earthquake ground shaking hazard assessment for the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas, New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 25, no. 4 (December 31, 1992): 286–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.25.4.286-302.
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Geographic variations in strong ground shaking expected during damaging earthquakes impacting on the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas are identified and quantified. Four ground shaking hazard zones have been mapped in the Lower Hutt area, and three in Porirua, based on geological, weak motion, and strong motion inputs. These hazard zones are graded from 1 to 5. In general, Zone 5 areas are subject to the greatest hazard, and Zone 1 areas the least. In Lower Hutt, zones 3 and 4 are not differentiated and are referred to as Zone 3-4. The five-fold classification is used to indicate the range of relative response.
Zone 1 areas are underlain by bedrock. Zone 2 areas are typically underlain by compact alluvial and fan gravel. Zone 3-4 is underlain, to a depth of 20 m, by interfingered layers of flexible (soft) sediment (fine sand, silt, clay, peat), and compact gravel and sand. Zone 5 is directly underlain by more than 10 m of flexible sediment with shear wave velocities in the order of 200 m/s or less.
The response of each zone is assessed for two earthquake scenarios. Scenario 1 is for a moderate to large, shallow, distant earthquake that results in regional Modified Mercalli intensity V-VI shaking on bedrock. Scenario 2 is for a large, local, but rarer, Wellington fault earthquake. The response characterisation for each zone comprises: expected Modified Mercalli intensity; peak horizontal ground acceleration; duration of strong shaking; and amplification of ground motion with respect to bedrock, expressed as a Fourier spectral ratio, including the frequency range over which the most pronounced amplification occurs. In brief, high to very high ground motion amplifications are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, during a scenario 1 earthquake. Peak Fourier spectral ratios of 10-20 are expected in Zone 5, relative to Zone 1, and a difference of up to three, possibly four, MM intensity units is expected between the two zones. During a scenario 2 event, it is anticipated that the level of shaking throughout the Lower Hutt and Porirua region will increase markedly, relative to scenario 1, and the average difference in shaking between each zone will decrease.
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Arteta, Carlos A., and Norman A. Abrahamson. "Conditional Scenario Spectra (CSS) for Hazard-Consistent Analysis of Engineering Systems." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 2 (May 2019): 737–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/102116eqs176m.
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Objective assessment of the seismic response of engineering systems is achievable through estimating the rate of exceedance (risk) of the engineering-demand parameters (EDPs), which are usually obtained by performing dynamic analyses with incrementally scaled seed ground motions. However, assigning rates of occurrence to such EDPs is difficult because the input ground motions are inconsistent with those that go into the hazard estimation. The Conditional Scenario Spectra (CSS) are a set of realistic ground-motion spectra with assigned rates of occurrence that reproduce the hazard at a site over various hazard levels and over a period range. The CSS methodology is an improvement over the CS method in that it includes the additional step of adjusting the rates to ensure the consistency of the target hazard. In this article, a step-by-step procedure for estimating the CSS is presented. The analysis of a structural system illustrates the uses of the CSS set for assessing EDPs over a wide range of demand intensity so that the estimation of the risk of these EDPs can be accomplished with ease.
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Chao, Shu-Hsien, Brian Chiou, Chiao-Chu Hsu, and Po-Shen Lin. "A horizontal ground-motion model for crustal and subduction earthquakes in Taiwan." Earthquake Spectra 36, no. 2 (March 13, 2020): 463–506. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/8755293019891711.
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In this study, a new horizontal ground-motion model is developed for crustal and subduction earthquakes in Taiwan. A novel two-step maximum-likelihood method is used as a regression tool to develop this model. This method simultaneously considers both the correlation between records and the biased sampling because of random truncation. Moreover, additional ground-motion data can be considered to derive more reliable analysis results. The functional form of the proposed ground-motion model is constructed using the response spectrum of the reference ground-motion scenario and different scalings of the source, path, and site to illustrate the ground-motion characteristics. The variabilities in the ground-motion intensity that result from different events, stations, and records are developed individually to derive a single-station sigma. The proposed ground-motion model may be useful for predicting ground-motion intensity and performing site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in Taiwan.
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Nunziata, C., C. Sacco, and G. F. Panza. "Modeling of Ground Motion at Napoli for the 1688 Scenario Earthquake." Pure and Applied Geophysics 168, no. 3-4 (March 31, 2010): 495–508. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0113-1.
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Aagaard, B. T., R. W. Graves, D. P. Schwartz, D. A. Ponce, and R. W. Graymer. "Ground-Motion Modeling of Hayward Fault Scenario Earthquakes, Part I: Construction of the Suite of Scenarios." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100, no. 6 (December 1, 2010): 2927–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090324.
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Liu, Ping, Tongjie Ren, Hai Wang, Chunfeng Li, Baoqiang Wang, and Zhengwei Xu. "Multisource Ground Motion Attenuation Relationship Model for the Vertical Component of the Wenchuan Earthquake on May 12, 2008." Advances in Civil Engineering 2021 (June 24, 2021): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5583859.
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In order to extend the multisource model to vertical ground motion, we fit the vertical ground motion attenuation relationship of the Wenchuan earthquake. Different from traditional attenuation relationship forms, we propose a simplified ground motion attenuation function including site effect via a flag related to VS30. The regression results show that it has site effect on the vertical ground motion of the Wenchuan earthquake and gradually weakens with the increase in periods. According to residuals analysis, the hanging-wall effect on vertical ground motion is strong for the Wenchuan earthquake, especially in short periods. The result analysis indicates that the shape of the vertical response spectrum based on regression is different from that of the horizontal component and complies with the recommended design vertical response spectrum of FEMA P-1050. V/H (vertical-to-horizontal ratios), as a main way to estimate vertical ground motion, cannot be simply fixed as 2/3. Therefore, site location, site condition, and frequency spectrum have to be considered comprehensively. The regression accuracy of the vertical ground motion of the multisource model is slightly higher than that of the point-source model and lower than that of the finite fault source model. It is expected that this model will serve as an alternative for source-to-site distance when multiple asperities are to be modeled in the absence of the detail fault model to get a general scenario of the future ground motions.
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Wang, Xiang-Chao, Jin-Ting Wang, Lei Zhang, Shuai Li, and Chu-Han Zhang. "A Multidimension Source Model for Generating Broadband Ground Motions with Deterministic 3D Numerical Simulations." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 111, no. 2 (January 12, 2021): 989–1013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200221.
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ABSTRACT A multidimension source model for generating broadband ground motions with deterministic 3D numerical simulations is proposed in this article. In this model, the source is composed of several superimposed layers, and the total seismic moment is assigned to these layers in different proportions. Each layer exactly fills up the seismic fault and is uniformly divided into subsources with size decreased progressively to reflect different levels of rupture details. Hence, the proposed multidimension source model may consider the realistic rupture process of an earthquake, that is, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of source parameters, and generate broadband ground motions. To verify this source model, the 1994 Northridge earthquake is simulated with four multidimension source models, based on different source inversion results. The amplitudes, durations, and spectral characteristics of the observed ground motions of the 1994 Northridge earthquake are respectably reproduced in a range of frequencies up to 5 Hz. In addition, a scenario earthquake is also simulated with four multidimension source models, with different synthetic rupture process. The simulated ground motions of the scenario earthquake are generally in good agreement with the Next Generation Attenuation-West 2 ground-motion prediction equations. This demonstrates that it is promising to simulate realistic broadband ground motions of strong earthquakes with a proper source description and realistic Earth models.
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Wang, Zhenming, David T. Butler, Edward W. Woolery, and Lanmin Wang. "Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area, Gansu Province, China." International Journal of Geophysics 2012 (2012): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2012/461863.
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A scenario seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Tianshui. The scenario hazard analysis utilized the best available geologic and seismological information as well as composite source model (i.e., ground motion simulation) to derive ground motion hazards in terms of acceleration time histories, peak values (e.g., peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity), and response spectra. This study confirms that Tianshui is facing significant seismic hazard, and certain mitigation measures, such as better seismic design for buildings and other structures, should be developed and implemented. This study shows that PGA of 0.3 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity VIII) should be considered for seismic design of general building and PGA of 0.4 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity IX) for seismic design of critical facility in Tianshui.
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De Jesus Vega, Eric, and Luis A. Montejo. "Influence of ground motion duration on ductility demands of reinforced concrete structures." International Journal of Advanced Structural Engineering 11, no. 4 (October 25, 2019): 503–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40091-019-00249-3.
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Abstract This article investigates the level of influence that strong motion duration may have on the inelastic demand of reinforced concrete structures. Sets of short-duration spectrally equivalent records are generated using as target the response spectrum of an actual long-duration record. The sets of short-duration records are applied to carefully calibrated numerical models of the structures along with the target long-duration records. The input motions are applied in an incremental dynamic analysis fashion, so that the duration effect at different levels of inelastic demand can be investigated. It was found that long-duration records tend to impose larger inelastic demands. However, such influence is difficult to quantify, as it was found to depend on the dynamic properties of the structure, the strength, and stiffness degrading characteristics, the approach used to generate the numerical model and the seismic scenario (target spectrum). While for some scenarios, the dominance of the long record was evident; in other scenarios, the set of short records clearly imposed larger demands than the long record. The detrimental effect of large strong motion durations was mainly observed in relatively rigid structures and poorly detailed flexible structures. The modeling approach was found to play an important role in the perceived effect of duration, with the lumped plasticity multilinear hysteretic models suggesting that the demands from the long records can be up to twice the inferred from distributed plasticity fiber models.
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Schiappapietra, Erika, and Chiara Smerzini. "Spatial correlation of broadband earthquake ground motion in Norcia (Central Italy) from physics-based simulations." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 19, no. 12 (June 24, 2021): 4693–717. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01160-7.
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AbstractThis paper investigates the spatial correlation of response spectral accelerations from a set of broadband physics-based ground motion simulations generated for the Norcia (Central Italy) area by means of the SPEED software. We produce several ground-motion scenarios by varying either the slip distribution or the hypocentral location as well as the magnitude to systematically explore the impact of such physical parameters on spatial correlations. We extend our analysis to other ground-motion components (vertical, fault-parallel, fault-normal) in addition to the more classic geometric mean to highlight possible ground-motion directionality and therefore identify specific spatial correlation features. Our analyses provide useful insights on the role of slip heterogeneities as well as the relative position between hypocentre and slip asperities on the spatial correlation. Indeed, we found a significant variability in terms of both range and sill among the considered case studies, suggesting that the spatial correlation is not only period-dependent, but also scenario-dependent. Finally, our results reveal that the isotropy assumption may represent an oversimplification especially in the near-field and thus it may be unsuitable for assessing the seismic risk of spatially-distributed infrastructures and portfolios of buildings.
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Liu, Bo Yan, Wen Hao Shen, and Bao Ping Shi. "Seismic Hazard Assessment of Hengshui Area by the Modified Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling." Applied Mechanics and Materials 744-746 (March 2015): 894–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.744-746.894.
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In recent years, numerical simulation of strong ground motion has been well developed with the progress of earthquake science, and it has become an important approach to estimate strong ground motion. In this research, we improve the original program of EXSIM and the modified program named MEXSIM to calculate the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) which is essential for seismic hazard assessment of Hengshui area. Considering the impact of V30(the average shear-velocity down to 30 m) we calculate the impact of two scenario earthquakes from the rupture processes of Hengshui fault and Qianmotou fault. Comparing to Qianmotou scenario earthquake, if the instability fault is Hengshui fault, the PGA and PGV could be 200-360gal and 20-35cm/s respectively in Hengshui city.
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Sabetta, Fabio, Antonio Pugliese, Gabriele Fiorentino, Giovanni Lanzano, and Lucia Luzi. "Simulation of non-stationary stochastic ground motions based on recent Italian earthquakes." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 19, no. 9 (April 7, 2021): 3287–315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01077-1.
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AbstractThis work presents an up-to-date model for the simulation of non-stationary ground motions, including several novelties compared to the original study of Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seism Soc Am 86:337–352, 1996). The selection of the input motion in the framework of earthquake engineering has become progressively more important with the growing use of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Regardless of the increasing availability of large strong motion databases, ground motion records are not always available for a given earthquake scenario and site condition, requiring the adoption of simulated time series. Among the different techniques for the generation of ground motion records, we focused on the methods based on stochastic simulations, considering the time- frequency decomposition of the seismic ground motion. We updated the non-stationary stochastic model initially developed in Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seism Soc Am 86:337–352, 1996) and later modified by Pousse et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96:2103–2117, 2006) and Laurendeau et al. (Nonstationary stochastic simulation of strong ground-motion time histories: application to the Japanese database. 15 WCEE Lisbon, 2012). The model is based on the S-transform that implicitly considers both the amplitude and frequency modulation. The four model parameters required for the simulation are: Arias intensity, significant duration, central frequency, and frequency bandwidth. They were obtained from an empirical ground motion model calibrated using the accelerometric records included in the updated Italian strong-motion database ITACA. The simulated accelerograms show a good match with the ground motion model prediction of several amplitude and frequency measures, such as Arias intensity, peak acceleration, peak velocity, Fourier spectra, and response spectra.
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Nath, S. K., A. Raj, K. K. S. Thingbaijam, and A. Kumar. "Ground Motion Synthesis and Seismic Scenario in Guwahati City--A Stochastic Approach." Seismological Research Letters 80, no. 2 (March 1, 2009): 233–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.80.2.233.
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Aagaard, B. T., T. M. Brocher, D. Dolenc, D. Dreger, R. W. Graves, S. Harmsen, S. Hartzell, et al. "Ground-Motion Modeling of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake, Part II: Ground-Motion Estimates for the 1906 Earthquake and Scenario Events." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, no. 2 (April 1, 2008): 1012–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120060410.
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OLSEN, KIM B. "THREE-DIMENSIONAL GROUND MOTION SIMULATIONS FOR LARGE EARTHQUAKES ON THE SAN ANDREAS FAULT WITH DYNAMIC AND OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS." Journal of Computational Acoustics 09, no. 03 (September 2001): 1203–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218396x01001273.
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I have simulated 0–0.5 Hz viscoelastic ground motion in Los Angeles from M 7.5 earthquakes on the San Andreas fault using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference method. Two scenarios are considered: (a) a southeast propagating and (b) a northwest propagating rupture along a 170-km long stretch of the fault near Los Angeles in a 3D velocity model. The scenarios use variable slip and rise time distributions inferred from the kinematic inversion results for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. The spatially variable static slip distribution used in this study, unlike that modeled in a recent study,1 is in agreement with constraints provided by rupture dynamics. I find peak ground velocities for (a) and (b) of 49 cm/s and 67 cm/s, respectively, near the fault. The near-fault peak motions for scenario (a) are smaller compared to previous estimates from 3D modeling for both rough and smooth faults.1,2 The lower near-fault peak motions are in closer agreements with constraints from precarious rocks located near the fault. Peak velocities in Los Angeles are about 30% larger for (b) 45 cm/s compared to those for (a) 35 cm/s.
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Star, Lisa M., Jonathan P. Stewart, and Robert W. Graves. "Comparison of Ground Motions from Hybrid Simulations to NGA Prediction Equations." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (May 2011): 331–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3583644.
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We compare simulated motions for a Mw 7.8 rupture scenario on the San Andreas Fault known as the ShakeOut event, two permutations with different hypocenter locations, and a Mw 7.15 Puente Hills blind thrust scenario, to median and dispersion predictions from empirical NGA ground motion prediction equations. We find the simulated motions attenuate faster with distance than is predicted by the NGA models for periods less than about 5.0 s After removing this distance attenuation bias, the average residuals of the simulated events (i.e., event terms) are generally within the scatter of empirical event terms, although the ShakeOut simulation appears to be a high static stress drop event. The intra-event dispersion in the simulations is lower than NGA values at short periods and abruptly increases at 1.0 s due to different simulation procedures at short and long periods. The simulated motions have a depth-dependent basin response similar to the NGA models, and also show complex effects in which stronger basin response occurs when the fault rupture transmits energy into a basin at low angle, which is not predicted by the NGA models. Rupture directivity effects are found to scale with the isochrone parameter.
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Rodgers, Arthur J., Arben Pitarka, Ramesh Pankajakshan, Bjorn Sjögreen, and N. Anders Petersson. "Regional-Scale 3D Ground-Motion Simulations of Mw 7 Earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, Northern California Resolving Frequencies 0–10 Hz and Including Site-Response Corrections." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 6 (August 11, 2020): 2862–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200147.
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ABSTRACT Large earthquake ground-motion simulations in 3D Earth models provide constraints on site-specific shaking intensities but have suffered from limited frequency resolution and ignored site response in soft soils. We report new regional-scale 3D simulations for moment magnitude 7.0 scenario earthquakes on the Hayward Fault, northern California with SW4. Simulations resolved significantly broader band frequencies (0–10 Hz) than previous studies and represent the highest resolution simulations for any such earthquake to date. Seismic waves were excited by a kinematic rupture following Graves and Pitarka (2016) and obeyed wave propagation in a 3D Earth model with topography from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) assuming a minimum shear wavespeed, VSmin, of 500 m/s. We corrected motions for linear and nonlinear site response for the shear wavespeed, VS, from the USGS 3D model, using a recently developed ground-motion model (GMM) for Fourier amplitude spectra (Bayless and Abrahamson, 2018, 2019a). At soft soil locations subjected to strong shaking, the site-corrected intensities reflect the competing effects of linear amplification by low VS material, reduction of stiffness during nonlinear deformation, and damping of high frequencies. Sites with near-surface VS of 500 m/s or greater require no linear site correction but can experience amplitude reduction due to nonlinear response. Averaged over all sites, we obtained reasonable agreement with empirical ergodic median GMMs currently used for seismic hazard and design ground motions (epsilon less than 1), with marked improvement at soft sedimentary sites. At specific locations, the simulated shaking intensities show systematic differences from the GMMs that reveal path and site effects not captured in these ergodic models. Results suggest how next generation regional-scale earthquake simulations can provide higher spatial and frequency resolution while including effects of soft soils that are commonly ignored in scenario earthquake ground-motion simulations.
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Scrivner, Craig W., and Donald V. Helmberger. "Preliminary work on an early warning and rapid response program for moderate earthquakes." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, no. 4 (August 1, 1995): 1257–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0850041257.
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Abstract Warning of imminent ground shaking due to a large earthquake would be useful to a variety of agencies. This kind of ground-motion prediction is possible in southern California for events with magnitude less than 6, where path effects dominate. The 28 June 1991 Sierra Madre earthquake is presented as a test case for this concept. A single-station inversion of the record from the Pasadena station 20 km SW of the epicenter produces reasonable source parameters for the event. With these source parameters and a library of Green's functions calculated for an average southern California crustal model, ground motions can be predicted throughout the region. In particular, since the peak displacement for the Sierra Madre event occurs at Pasadena before ground motion begins at a station near the San Andreas Fault in San Bernardino, ground motions near the San Andreas Fault can be calculated before the seismic energy has propagated into the area. Considering this scenario in the reverse direction, records from a station near an earthquake on the San Andreas Fault could be used to predict ground motions in the metropolitan Los Angeles area. Broadband, high-dynamic-range seismic instruments produce high-quality records for events over a wide magnitude range. Thus, the development of a warning system can be approached in stages, starting with small events. With path effects determined by modeling moderate-size events, work can begin on developing distributed fault models to predict ground motions of great earthquakes.
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Chao, Shu-Hsien, and Yi-Hau Chen. "A Novel Regression Analysis Method for Randomly Truncated Strong-Motion Data." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 2 (May 2019): 977–1001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/022218eqs044m.
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Regression analysis is a basic and essential tool for developing the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). Generally, the probability of intensity measurement for a given ground motion scenario described by several predictors is assumed to be normally distributed. However, because of the triggering threshold of the strong-motion station, ground motion records below the triggering threshold are truncated (i.e., not recorded), and the truncated intensity levels of spectral accelerations at different periods are random variables. Consequently, the sampling of the ground motion data used in GMPE development is biased, and the observed probability of the intensity measurement is no longer normally distributed. Therefore, a novel two-step maximum-likelihood method is proposed in this paper as a regression tool to overcome this problem in GMPE development. The advantage of the proposed method is that the correlation between records from the same events and those from the same sites as well as the biased sampling problem can be considered simultaneously, and more ground motion data can be considered to derive more reliable analysis results.
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PAN, TSO-CHIEN, KUSNOWIDJAJA MEGAWATI, and CHEE LEONG LIM. "SEISMIC SHAKING IN SINGAPORE DUE TO PAST SUMATRAN EARTHQUAKES." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 01, no. 01 (March 2007): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431107000043.
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In 1996, the Meteorological Service of Singapore (MSS) installed a network of seven seismic stations. Nanyang Technological University (NTU) has also installed two additional seismic stations. Together, the nine stations form a network called the Singapore Array for Earthquake Response (SAFER). One of the stations installed by NTU consists of two sets of four accelerometers installed in a 66-storey commercial building for the study of building response to far-field earthquakes. This paper summarizes the research work that has been developed from the network of sensors. During the operation of the SAFER array, far-field earthquake ground motions have been recorded for many Sumatra earthquake events. From this, local site characteristics have been studied and hazard maps showing the amplified peak ground acceleration of the earthquake has been developed for the local sites. A case study for the hazard map due to the Bengkulu earthquake (Mw = 7.7) of June 4, 2000, is shown. Based on numerical studies of typical building structures in Singapore, an additional response map showing spatial variation of approximate base shear of buildings has been developed for Singapore. A case study of the response map due to the Bengkulu earthquake (Mw = 7.7) of June 4, 2000, is also shown. For future seismic hazard assessments of Singapore, a set of attenuation relationships that can reasonably predict the ground-motion intensity in Singapore generated by potential seismic sources have to be established. These attenuation relationships have to be developed using synthetic seismograms because the ground motion data that have been recorded within the last 10 years is not sufficient to develop them empirically. However, the available ground motions play a critical role in validating the synthetic attenuation relationships. The ultimate objective of this continuing research work is to incorporate a real-time monitoring system with the ground motion prediction models into hazard and response maps for scenario earthquakes. Such an integrated system when developed may assist in the planning of emergency responses to various earthquake scenarios.
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Moratto, L., A. Vuan, A. Saraò, D. Slejko, C. Papazachos, R. Caputo, D. Civile, et al. "Seismic hazard for the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Part 2: broadband scenarios at the Fier Compressor Station (Albania)." Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering 19, no. 9 (May 22, 2021): 3389–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10518-021-01122-z.
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AbstractTo ensure environmental and public safety, critical facilities require rigorous seismic hazard analysis to define seismic input for their design. We consider the case of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which is a pipeline that transports natural gas from the Caspian Sea to southern Italy, crossing active faults and areas characterized by high seismicity levels. For this pipeline, we develop a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) for the broader area, and, for the selected critical sites, we perform deterministic seismic hazard assessment (DSHA), by calculating shaking scenarios that account for the physics of the source, propagation, and site effects. This paper presents a DSHA for a compressor station located at Fier, along the Albanian coastal region. Considering the location of the most hazardous faults in the study site, revealed by the PSHA disaggregation, we model the ground motion for two different scenarios to simulate the worst-case scenario for this compressor station. We compute broadband waveforms for receivers on soft soils by applying specific transfer functions estimated from the available geotechnical data for the Fier area. The simulations reproduce the variability observed in the ground motion recorded in the near-earthquake source. The vertical ground motion is strong for receivers placed above the rupture areas and should not be ignored in seismic designs; furthermore, our vertical simulations reproduce the displacement and the static offset of the ground motion highlighted in recent studies. This observation confirms the importance of the DSHA analysis in defining the expected pipeline damage functions and permanent soil deformations.
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Abdi, F., N. Mirzaei, and E. Shabani. "Ground-motion scenarios consistent with PSH deaggregation for Tehran, capital city of Iran." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, no. 3 (March 20, 2013): 679–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-679-2013.
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Abstract. This study presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) deaggregation for 5%-damped 0.2 and 1.0 s spectral accelerations, corresponding to mean return periods (MRPs) of 50, and 475 yr for Tehran city. The aim of this paper is to quantify the dominant events that have the most contribution on ground-motion exceedance from the above mentioned hazard levels. The scenario earthquakes are characterized by bins of magnitude (M), source-to-site distance (R), and epsilon (ε). The results reveal that for Tehran city, the hazard is mainly controlled by local seismicity. Generally, as the spectral acceleration period increase, the contribution of larger and more distant scenario earthquakes to the overall seismic hazard increase.
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Kumar, A., S. Pasari, A. Mehta, and H. Verma. "Impact of directional effect of strong ground motion on scenario-based earthquake hazards: preliminary results." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1032, no. 1 (June 1, 2022): 012042. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1032/1/012042.
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Abstract Scenario-based earthquake hazards are useful for social planning and disaster mitigation. In this study, general attenuation properties of earthquake events are analysed empirically with respect to the direction of seismic rupture from the epicentre. The study is primarily focused on presenting a relationship between fault source characteristics and the most credible direction of any earthquake that occurs at that source. Since such a direction is not only a function of source but also is dependent on site parameters, several ground motion prediction equations are utilised in congregation with methods to evaluate site parameters. The method involves a graphical relationship between scenario spectral ordinates and polar coordinates to estimate the most credible direction for that scenario. An analysis illustrating the method is presented here for the Himalayan megathrust fault, the Main Boundary Thrust.
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Castro, Sebastián, Alan Poulos, Juan Carlos Herrera, and Juan Carlos de la Llera. "Modeling the Impact of Earthquake-Induced Debris on Tsunami Evacuation Times of Coastal Cities." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 1 (February 2019): 137–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/101917eqs218m.
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Tsunami alerts following severe earthquakes usually affect large geographical regions and require people to evacuate to higher safety zones. However, evacuation routes may be hindered by building debris and vehicles, thus leading to longer evacuation times and an increased risk of loss of life. Herein, we apply an agent-based model to study the evacuation situation of the coastal city of Iquique, north Chile, where most of the population is exposed to inundation from an incoming tsunami. The study evaluates different earthquake scenarios characterized by different ground motion intensities in terms of the evacuation process within a predefined inundation zone. Evacuating agents consider the microscale interactions with cars and other people using a collision avoidance algorithm. Results for the no ground shaking scenario are compared for validation with those of a real evacuation drill done in 2013 for the entire city. Finally, a parametric analysis is performed with ten different levels of ground motion intensity, showing that evacuation times for 95% of the population increase in 2.5 min on average when considering the effect of building debris.
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Gong, Mao Sheng, Jing Sun, and Li Li Xie. "Attenuation of Hysteretic Energy Spectra of Strong Ground Motion." Applied Mechanics and Materials 166-169 (May 2012): 2453–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.166-169.2453.
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Based on 266 strong ground motions from 15 significant earthquakes in California of America, the attenuation law of hysteretic spectra is established by using nonlinear regression method, and the effects of site class and ductility level on the hysteretic spectra constructed from the attenuation relationship are discussed in the paper. The results show that the site has significant effects on hysteretic energy spectra, and the more soft the site is, the more hysteretic energy structure will suffer from earthquake. Moreover, for ductility level scaled by ductility factor, the results show that structure with greater ductility factor can dissipate more input energy from the earthquake by means of the plastic deformation. The up limit design value of ductility factor for a structure is proposed as 4 because there is little difference between the hysteretic energy demand for ductility factor 4 and larger values. The hysteretic energy demand for structures at a given site in scenario earthquakes can be evaluated according to the results of the paper.
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Candia, Gabriel, Jorge Macedo, Miguel A. Jaimes, and Carolina Magna‐Verdugo. "A New State‐of‐the‐Art Platform for Probabilistic and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment." Seismological Research Letters 90, no. 6 (September 11, 2019): 2262–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190025.
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ABSTRACT A new computational platform for seismic hazard assessment is presented. The platform, named SeismicHazard, allows characterizing the intensity, uncertainty, and likelihood of ground motions from subduction‐zone (shallow interface and intraslab) and crustal‐zone earthquakes, considering site‐specific as well as regional‐based assessments. The platform is developed as an object‐oriented MATLAB graphical user interface, and it features several state‐of‐the‐art capabilities for probabilistic and deterministic (scenario‐based) seismic hazard assessment. The platform integrates the latest developments in performance‐based earthquake engineering for seismic hazard assessment, including seismic zonation models, ground‐motion models (GMMs), ground‐motion correlation structures, and the estimation of design spectra (uniform hazard spectra, classical conditional mean spectrum (CMS) for a unique tectonic setting). In addition to these standard capabilities, the platform supports advanced features, not commonly found in existing seismic hazard codes, such as (a) computation of source parameters from earthquake catalogs, (b) vector‐probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (c) hazard evaluation based on conditional GMMs and user‐defined GMMs, (d) uncertainty treatment in the median ground motions through continuous GMM distributions, (e) regional shaking fields, and (f) estimation of CMS considering multiple GMMs and multiple tectonic settings. The results from the platform have been validated against accepted and well‐documented benchmark solutions.
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Papadopoulos, Athanasios N., Mohsen Kohrangi, and Paolo Bazzurro. "Correlation of Spectral Acceleration Values of Mainshock-Aftershock Ground Motion Pairs." Earthquake Spectra 35, no. 1 (February 2019): 39–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/020518eqs033m.
Full textAbstract:
This study examines the statistical correlation between the spectral accelerations of mainshock-aftershock ground motion pairs in the NGA-West2 ground motion database. Aftershock spectral accelerations are found mildly correlated with their mainshock counterparts for closely spaced periods of vibration and are weakly correlated over the rest of the period range. We further investigate for potential differences between the interperiod correlations of mainshock and aftershock spectral accelerations, finding no substantial evidence to support the use of different models for the two cases. Furthermore, the impact of different rupture scenario parameters on correlation is examined and discussed. The derived correlation estimates are expected to aid in aftershock seismic hazard assessment and/or in record selection for risk assessment applications by using the mainshock spectral ordinates to obtain better predictions for the aftershock ground motion.