Academic literature on the topic 'Government Technical Oil Mission'

ABSTRACT Many small and remote nations of the South Pacific depend primarily on subsistence fisheries for their livelihoods. The foreshores of many of these nations are fringed by coral reefs, on which very active marine ecological systems depend. Oil spills in these areas would have a serious effect both on these systems and on the islands’ economic activities. As part of the International Maritime Organization technical assistance program for Pacific Island nations, the Australian government has carried out a number of missions to develop marine pollution contingency plans. This paper discusses the essential issues for these plans, which are often based on an assumption of low risk, but need to recognize the severe effect that a pollution incident would have on the community and the environment. The linking of national plans with effective regional assistance arrangements is also discussed.

The smallest of the nation's uniformed armed services, the United States Coast Guard's basic missions relate to maritime safety, mobility, and security; national defense, and natural resources protection. It is responsible for enforcement of maritime laws and marine environmental pollution response. The Coast Guard offers many career opportunities for enlisted personnel, including Marine Science Technician (MST). MSTs conduct marine-safety activities such as investigating pollution incidents and monitoring pollution clean-ups. Possible scientific duties include responding to oil and hazardous-materials spills, observing and forecasting weather. An increasing number of civilian employers are becoming more aware of the unique strengths former military personnel can bring with them to a consultant position. A consultant is someone who has expertise in a specific area or areas and offers unbiased opinions and advice for a fee. There are many reasons why the private and public sector need consultants for problem solving. One very important reason; Government regulatory compliance. Government regulations at all levels are constantly changing, and companies are frequently not prepared or trained to comply. Consultants may be retained to provide expertise to assist a company in complying economically, efficiently, and with the least amount of trauma to the organization. They can also be hired to provide in-house training to keep staff informed of new management and supervisory techniques or technical knowledge and to improve employee safety. Successful consultants often possess certain attributes. They can be identified with good physical and mental health, professional etiquette and courtesy, stability of behavior and self-confident. In addition to these skills, here are two military-related attributes that most companies find attractive and will help any organization simplify the task at hand. Loyalty to the Team. Military personnel bring with them an intrinsic understanding of how loyalty adds to team proficiency and builds trust in a work environment. For business leaders looking to make an improvement in their company, military personnel often outperform other candidates as proven team players, as demonstrated by hard work, motivation, and dedication. Reliable Work Ethic. Knowing the importance of adhering to a schedule and consistently performing well at work demonstrates professional maturity. One of the most difficult challenges to hiring professionals is being able to accurately judge candidates in these areas. Through service, training, and lifestyle, former military personnel will typically have the work ethic that any business owner would be thrilled to replicate in all of the organization's employees.

Achieving Clean India by 2016 is the aim of the present government. While 50 % of Indians continue to defecate in openKerala State had ensured 96 % of sanitation coverage, with only 19 gram panchayats remaining as a challenge to declare the state as Nirmal Rajya State. Vattavada, in Devikulam block of Idukki District is one among those Panchayats, where hardly only 15% of the households had access to sanitation. A special project was conceived by the Suchitwa Mission of Kerala State Government which was ably supported by the local panchayat and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Institute based at Kodaikanal to make the panchyat Open defecation. The advisory, implementation and funding support was given Government of India and Suchitwa Mission, Government of Kerala. The Technical support for toilet construction, demand creation and other need based IEC activities were carried out by WASH Institute. The district administration provided staff and monitoring support. The Suchitwa Mission also played a significant role in guiding, coordinating, supervising and helping in timely release of subsidy for the beneficiaries. The identification and selection of beneficiaries, execution and management of the project was done by Panchayat administration. The coordinated efforts of all these agencies resulted in 98 % sanitation coverage in the Panchayat and this case study captures the same.

Rapeseed and mustard oil is one of the most consumed edible oils in India due to pungency and colour. India needs nearly 15-20 million tonnes of rapeseed and mustard seed to meet its growing demand as against current production of 9-10 million tonnes of seeds. As per WHO standards, mustard oil with low saturated fatty acid content and high mono unsaturated fatty acid content is a healthy oil and therefore needs special importance in domestic edible oil basket. Currently (2022-23), Government of India (GOI) is implementing National Food Security Mission (NFSM) - (Oilseeds & Oil palm) for increasing oilseeds production and area expansion under oil palm. The NFSM (OS&OP) will be dropped and two new Scheme National Mission on Edible oils (NMEO)-Oilseeds and NMEO-Oil Palm will be implemented with the aim to enhance the edible oilseeds production and oils availabilityin the countrybyharnessing oilseeds and palmoil productivityand to reduce import burden on edible oils. Besides, NMEO-OS the private participation in technology demonstration, input supply, procurement of produce, value addition, infrastructure development and honey production are very much essential to increase edible oils production.

ABSTRACT Cooperative efforts between the oil industry and governments at the national and local levels have resulted in a series of reports for both technical and general audiences on subjects relating to oil spills, as well as an ongoing series of government/industry regional seminars for senior executives. The seminars emphasize the crucial importance of joint government/industry attention to contingency planning. These activities, which are continuing, are organized under the auspices of an International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association working group, and the International Maritime Organization. Feedback is solicited from seminar participants for use in planning further seminars and to give the IMO a clear picture of follow up activities that have resulted from the seminars.

Nigeria is blessed with crude oil in an abundance, which makes it one of the largest oil producers in Africa. Illegal crude oil bunkering is a regular activity in the Niger Delta region in Nigeria. The trend of illegal bunkering of crude oil activities in the Niger Delta has turned out to be a key concern to the people, government, and the international body. This makes it deem fit to carry out an assessment of the continued negative impact of vandalism, crude oil theft, and illegal bunkering of oil production activities in the Igbomatoru community in Southern Ijaw Local Government Area (SILGA), Bayelsa, Niger Delta area. This report critically examines the negative impact of vandalism and crude oil theft, negative impacts of illegal bunkering of crude oil activities in the community, and finding lasting possible solution to the problem of illegal bunkering of crude oil in the Igbomotoru community. Based on the investigation, some recommendations have been made, including that the government should promote a kick-start of cellular refinery programme to close the refining gap with strong local participation, provide legitimate employment opportunities, make better use of surveillance techniques, youth empowerment programmes should be carried out through vocational training, government should clean-up the degraded sites, government should give free education for the youths and children in the community, and government ought to promptly arrest and prosecute offenders of crude oil theft.

AbstractThis chapter examines the construction of the geographic information market in the United States. The focus is on two key building blocks in this process: (1) the development of (legal and technical) interoperability in the collection and dissemination of geographic information, and (2) the construction of Intellectual Property (IP) regimes. These elements are explored in the context of the institutional configuration between government, the private sector, and the public. This configuration, which in the United States bounds the role of government as a producer of geographic information and limits its actions in the market, creates suitable conditions for the continued production of geographic information as input to a growing market, as well as its consumption, circulation, transformation, and use by government agencies, private firms, and the broader public. Lastly, the chapter characterizes the geographic information market in the United States as relying on the legally delimitated role of the Federal Government as a de jure producer of informational inputs that foster the development of secondary applications in addition to fulfilling its primary mission of public information. Understanding the institutional, legal, and technical dimensions of the geographic information market will enable a clearer analysis of the linkages, transactions, and logics between government agencies, private firms, and civil society groups in the production of value through geographic information and other informational resources. More generally, the author argues that identifying the interplay between specific institutional environments, governing legal frameworks, and processes of technological innovation and knowledge generation is essential to studying, governing, and regulating informational markets in the digital economy.

India ventured into the Skilling space mission launched in 2009 and reoriented its direction and focus to meet “Make in India”, “Start Up-Stand Up” and “Solarizing India”. The Skill spaces and technology investments for “Make in India” are in independent silos with no change in earlier estimated skill requirements for various sectors as estimated by National Skill Development Corporation, now with a renewed thrust of Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana (PMKVY). National Policy on Skill Development (NPSD) under Skill Development mission (2010) approved by the previous government had set a target for skilling 50 crore (500 million) persons by the year 2022. NSDC has now set a revised target of skilling / upskilling 15 crore (1500 Mn.) people by the year 2022. The investments in Technology and the Skilling are operating from respective independent and closed silos with very little interaction.

The importance of the agricultural sector in the economy of Azerbaijan is high. This sector has always been at the center of economic reforms by the government. This chapter overviews economic and trade policies of the government focused on the development of agricultural production since 1991. Authors carry out analysis of policy changes during separate development stages. The research output presents agricultural policy before the oil boom as mainly devoted to achieving structural transformation from centrally planned economy to the market environment. Within the oil boom period, the government provided substantial fiscal and technical support to the agricultural sector as well as applied tax incentives to farmers but did not pay attention to the transformation from family farming to medium and large-scale production. However, fiscal and macroeconomic challenges of post-oil boom period forced the government to focus on increasing efficiency of the subsidies and incentives and implementation of further agricultural reforms.

Abstract Intended to lower British morale, the Luftwaffe ‘Baedeker’ raids struck at the cultural heart of the country. Using a guidebook by Karl Baedeker describing the finest architectural sites in the country, the bombers dropped their loads at night on treasured cathedrals, towns, and cities. In Oxford, in the darkness, one could hear German bombers throb overhead on their way to the Midlands and beyond; but still, the City of Oxford was not targeted. Largely due to the effective action of the Royal Air Force, by early 1942, Britain had withstood the worst of the Luftwaffe attacks, and government officials began looking ahead to rebuilding the nation. Two years earlier, Ernest Bevin, the Minister of Labour, had appointed William Henry Beveridge, an economist and social reformer, to conduct a rapid survey of peace-time manpower requirements. In 1941, however, Beveridge’s mission was changed, and he was appointed Chairman of a committee on social insurance. The work was comprehensive and included a number of social surveys. Added to all the other surveys under way, members of the public complained that every time one ate, or coughed, or failed to attend work, there was another person measuring, timing, and counting what had occurred.

Bearing in mind the strong link between energy and development, and given the country’s heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels, this chapter discusses the opportunity for substituting fossil fuels with biofuels in a Sahelian country, Burkina Faso. Biofuel opportunities are discussed taking into account technical, agronomic, and land potentials in this country. Diversification of energy resources with biofuels would reduce the growth of fuel imports in the short term, improve overall public finances, provide a chance to develop agriculture, and provide benefits for the locals. However, if they are to generate sustainable socio-economic development, biofuel projects need to be mindful of food security and economic incentives, and should be part of national agricultural strategies. The chapter shows that a number of conditions must be met to ensure the advantages of biofuels outweigh the disadvantages: prioritising domestic use over exports; supporting the emergence of decentralised systems; localising dedicated crops in order to avoid competition with food crops; regulating the edible oil market; removing technical obstacles to production and processing; and prioritising projects implying family-farming rather than agri-business.

A wind turbine or even a wind farm, i.e. a group of wind turbines, is becoming an increasingly familiar sight in the countryside today. The wind turbine converts the power in the wind to electrical power and consists of a tower, rotor, typically with three blades as in Fig. 5.1, and a nacelle containing the power converter. From its rebirth in the early 1980s, wind power has experienced a dramatic development. Today, other than hydropower, it is the most important of the renewable sources of power. With an installed capacity equivalent to that required to provide electricity for over 19,000,000 average European homes and annual turnover greater than £5,500,000,000, wind energy has exceeded its year-on-year targets over the last decade. This growth in the contribution to electricity generation from wind power in Europe is likely to continue over the next few years, since the EU Commission has set a European target for 2010 of 12% of electricity generation from renewable sources. In the long term, the achievable limit to the contribution of wind power is estimated to be30%of the total European demand, an amount almost equal to the installed nuclear capacity. In the UK, wind power is the fastest growing energy sector. Over 4,000 people are employed by companies working in the wind sector , and it is estimated by the UK Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) that the next round of offshore wind development could generate a further 20,000 jobs. In a 2003 Energy White Paper, the UK government aspired to achieving a 60% reduction in UK CO2 emissions by 2050. In order to do so, it has set targets for UK electricity generation from renewable sources of 10% of electricity demand by 2010 and20% by 2015. Since it is the most mature of the renewable energies, much of these near term targets must be met by wind power . Irrespective of whether these targets are achieved, the potential for increase in the UK is substantial. The prospects for wind power development in the UK are dependent on the available wind resource, public acceptance, and technical development. Each of these issues is discussed below.

On November 17, 2015, the government of Nigeria launched the Anchor Borrowers' Programme. The programme is aimed at boosting agricultural production and non-oil exports in the face of dwindling crude oil prices. Because the Anchor Borrowers' Programme is relatively recent and relevant to the main theme of the book—financing agricultural production expansion—its vision and mission are highlighted in this chapter with a view to informing and influencing the expected beneficiaries. The methodology employed is a systematic and analytic review of relevant literature. It is concluded that the Anchor Borrowers' Programme is a well-articulated initiative for economic linkage between smallholder farmers and reputable large-scale agro-processors with a view to increasing agricultural output and significantly improving capacity utilization of processors. It is recommended that the government resist the temptation of policies and programmes that are aimed at boosting agricultural financing and production rising and falling with the government that initiated them.

This chapter conceptualizes a process for cryptocurrency to diversify traditional methods of higher education funding in the United States. Cryptocurrency funding augments traditional revenue streams and shifts the discussion of education costs from expenses to a more robust conversation about innovative avenues to wealth generation as a potential solution to fund the mission of American higher education. This chapter acknowledges the central concerns of higher education funding as it explores these arguments as legacy discourses rooted in career preparation, accessibility and affordability, and arguments about the need for a broad-based education vs. more technical skills training. Further, an alternative model to current higher education funding models is presented, and if deployed, this asset class could help to serve education needs by funding research, students, and the academy through an illustrated conceptual framework for funding.

This chapter applies stakeholder theory in order to evaluate whether a blockchain community is demonstrating a communicational maturity in order to achieve its technical, social, and political agenda. The consistence of the mission of an organization or a community is clearly reflected in the eyes of its stakeholders. Therefore, the study adopts a qualitative lens in conducting 11 semi-structured interviews with experts that are prominent international stakeholders of the blockchain in order to gain a deeper understanding of their internalized perception about this technology and its social network. According to the results, the blockchain community members are ready to address the feasibility of their technology and its implications. They also address some aspects of the social suitability of their network. However, they do not fix clear conditions of communication and coordination to discuss the sustainability of the whole organization.

This chapter refers to the supporting environment theory of cooperatives, which posits that success is spurred by the presence of promoters, a good legal and fiscal environment, and government support without government control. It inserts the term “ecosystem” in place of “environment” to foreground the interconnected system dynamics at work in supporting cooperative ecosystems. It also outlines how people launch and grow cooperatives within a particular ecosystem that includes the laws, government programs, and cooperative support organizations that influence them. The chapter mentions the social-movement approach to cooperatives, which suggests that degeneration follows a deemphasis and marginalization of building cohesive networks of apex and sector federations, plans, and proposals for technical and financial assistance. It discusses well-established cooperatives that abandon the mission of developing a cooperative movement in favour of responding to market forces and the individual cooperative's financial goals.

Among other obligations imposed under the forestry permit, watershed rehabilitation planting is perceived by the upstream oil and gas sector as the most complex challenge to conquer. Despite its poor track in fulfilling timeline and required result, there are also other challenges to consider, for instance lack of critical location, weather, fire, land tenure, community habit and capability, and cost optimization. In attempt to respond these challenges, an innovation in management system is constructed at PT Pertamina Hulu Mahakam, embracing and tailoring all related challenges, difficulties, and complexities, escalating the activity to be beyond compliance. So that it will be able to deliver more than merely avoid the identified potential risks towards company. The management system, called PIRAMIDA TINGGI (Pemberdayaan Masyarakat untuk Melestarikan Hutan di Dunia demi Ketahanan Energi Nasional), actively involves government, community, and business sector as equilateral triangle that work together to perform watershed rehabilitation planting. Developed using ISO 9001:2015 process approach namely PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act), the PIRAMIDA TINGGI system is in line as well with NAWACITA (President Joko Widodo’s vision, mission and program). To encounter other issue found during field work, this system is equipped as well with another innovation tool named PARIDA, a geospatial mobile-desk top-web application that easily able to map and identify vegetation in real time for further geo-analyzing multi-purposes, to be operated by local community. Full set implementation of this system has benefitted all parties. To Company in form of significant cost efficiency around 13.9 MUSD and 7 days’ faster result delivery besides obligation fulfillment, for others in form of broader advantage of proven sustainability project that has gave contribution to 5P (People, Planet, Prosperity, Partnership and Peace), objectives required by UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030.

Among other obligations imposed under the forestry permit, watershed rehabilitation planting is perceived by the upstream oil and gas sector as the most complex challenge to conquer. Despite its poor track in fulfilling timeline and required result, there are also other challenges to consider, for instance lack of critical location, weather, fire, land tenure, community habit and capability, and cost optimization. In attempt to respond these challenges, an innovation in management system is constructed at PT Pertamina Hulu Mahakam, embracing and tailoring all related challenges, difficulties, and complexities, escalating the activity to be beyond compliance. So that it will be able to deliver more than merely avoid the identified potential risks towards company. The management system, called PIRAMIDA TINGGI (Pemberdayaan Masyarakat untuk Melestarikan Hutan di Dunia demi Ketahanan Energi Nasional), actively involves government, community, and business sector as equilateral triangle that work together to perform watershed rehabilitation planting. Developed using ISO 9001:2015 process approach namely PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act), the PIRAMIDA TINGGI system is in line as well with NAWACITA (President Joko Widodo’s vision, mission and program). To encounter other issue found during field work, this system is equipped as well with another innovation tool named PARIDA, a geospatial mobile-desk top-web application that easily able to map and identify vegetation in real time for further geo-analyzing multi-purposes, to be operated by local community. Full set implementation of this system has benefitted all parties. To Company in form of significant cost efficiency around 13.9 MUSD and 7 days’ faster result delivery besides obligation fulfillment, for others in form of broader advantage of proven sustainability project that has gave contribution to 5P (People, Planet, Prosperity, Partnership and Peace), objectives required by UN Sustainable Development Goals 2030.

Abstract Kazakhstan has set a lofty goal of becoming one of the world's top 30 developed countries by 2050. This can be accomplished by growing up well-versed, competent, and forward-thinking human capital. We previously discussed curriculum, courses, internships, and student development as part of the World Economic Forum (WEF) pilot project supported by Chevron, Eni, and Shell (Sponsors) to strengthen oil and gas human capital in Kazakhstan (SPE-195903 and SPE-201272). During regular visits, the WEF sponsors and Colorado School of Mines (Mines) could assess the Satbayev University (SU) PE department and underlined the importance of faculty growth. Academic workshops on topics such as course and syllabus design, student assessment, and ABET accreditation standards have been held both offline and online. Meanwhile, to advance the PE program, faculty research capacity must be globally competitive. To begin, the Kazakhstani government distributed visiting scholarship awards on behalf of the supporting World Bank in 2018. Shell Kazakhstan took the initiative and co-funded two PhD candidates so they could perform their research experiments at Pennsylvania State University (PennState). In addition, Mines has gone above and beyond the WEF scope by offering two fully-funded PhD scholarships to exceptional SU faculty. Through the newly constituted Industry-Advisory Board (IAB), the WEF Sponsors emphasized strong contact with the industry, which assisted in identifying a few research topics. These discussions resulted in formulation of four research proposals that were submitted to the Ministry of Education and Science Grants in 2020 and are being co-funded by Sponsors. This collaboration has yielded the approval of two projects by the State. Finally, under the auspices of the IAB meetings, the PE department has been offered opportunity to collaborate with the national KazMunayGas on the company-related project. While academic cooperation is well-known, research and its outcomes are even more critical in today's fast-changing environment. Universities must quickly adapt to industry best practices while remaining committed to their global mission of contributing to national growth and human potential. This paper discusses effective approaches for industry-academia collaboration.

Abstract There is a new drive on well abandonment in Nigeria. Numerous technical challenges arise while safely delivering abandonment wells often due to missing & inaccurate historical data considering that some of the wells were drilled over 60 years ago. This challenge alone makes it an easy oversight from most rig and office-based teams to focus more on the technical challenges while losing sight of an equally important & often understated factor namely non-technical issues. The well objective of decommissioning/abandonment is to install permanent barriers to effectively isolate the hydrocarbon bearing reservoirs from the freshwater reservoirs and the surface in an environmentally safe manner and restore the surface location as close as possible to its original state. What these objectives imply is that benefits (local employment during well intervention, freedom to operate dues and government entitlements as producing communities) are no longer accessible to the local host communities which bring forth a dimension that often times acts as a spanner in the works of efficient & effective abandonment operations. This paper will address in detail the challenges encountered during a recent well abandonment campaign spanning 5 wells in the same calendar year, how the team effectively managed the non-technical issues and continuously improved from high NPT recorded in the 1st well to less than 10% at the end of the campaign without any safety incident. In this new era of focused abandonment in the Nigeria oil industry empowered by recent PIB signed into law, the knowledge and learnings from this project will help other operators who will undergo mandatory abandonment of wells in near & far future to appreciate and plan for these challenges.

Abstract Future aircraft and rotorcraft propulsion systems should be able to meet ambitious targets and severe limitations set by governments and organizations. These targets cannot be achieved through marginal improvements in turbine technology or vehicle design. Hybrid-electric propulsion is being widely considered as a revolutionary concept to further improve the environmental impact of air travel. One of the most important challenges and barriers in the development phase of hybrid-electric propulsion systems is the Thermal Management System (TMS) design, sizing and optimization for addressing the increased thermal loads due to the electric power train. The aim of this paper is to establish an integrated simulation framework including the vehicle, the propulsion system and the fuel-oil system (FOS) for assessing the cooling capability of the FOS for the more electric era of rotorcrafts. The framework consists of a helicopter model, propulsion system models, both conventional and hybrid-electric, and a FOS model. The test case is a twin-engine medium (TEM) helicopter flying a representative Passenger Air Transport (PAT) mission. The conventional power plant heat loads are calculated and the cooling capacity of the FOS is quantified for different operating conditions. Having established the baseline, three different Power Management Strategies (PMS) are considered and the integrated simulation framework is utilized for evaluating FOS temperatures. The results highlight the limitations of existing rotorcraft FOS to cope with the high values of thermal loads associated with hybridization for the cases examined. Hence, new ideas and embodiments should be identified and assessed. The case of exploiting the fuel tank as a heat sink is investigated and the results indicate that recirculating fuel to the fuel tank can enhance the cooling capacity of conventional FOS.

Abstract This paper studies the gaps that oil and gas operators faced when undertaking a bottom-up facility inventory and baseline quantification of emissions to support corporate priorities for project evaluation and enable participation in government subsidies related to emission reduction programs provided by the Government of Alberta, Canada. The paper aggregates the challenges observed during a survey of over 14,000 facilities in Alberta, Canada from 2020-2022. The paper presents best practices to ensure business readiness for baseline emissions quantification. Globally, countries are making international commitments in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) relating to GHG emission reductions. In the case of Alberta, governments, regulators and independent bodies have repeatedly expressed concern that the estimated and reported emissions represent only a fraction of the actual methane emissions from oil and gas production in Alberta, resulting in an inaccurate baseline for decision making. In 2020, the Government of Alberta announced an incentive program to support and encourage producers to create full-field emitter inventories, quantify baseline emissions and identify emission reduction opportunities. Actioning the program required the creation of standardized emissions data collection criteria for all equipment within the production system as well as production facilities. A standardized emissions data collection criteria was developed through stakeholder engagement with the Alberta regulator, government, operators, carbon credit experts, data capture service providers and 3rd party verifiers. The uptake of the program has been strong, with operators benefiting from baseline emission quantification and emitter inventories to prioritize imvestment decisions. Oil and gas producers are now making investment decisions to meet Canada's commitment to the Paris Agreement, with accurate baseline emission quantification and technology implementation plans. These producers are targeting investment to "big hit" emissions reduction investments with the clarity of an accurate bottom-up baseline emission quantification. While the incentive program successfully incentivized and financially supported producers in this endeavor, the participating companies faced several technical roadblocks, including incomplete emitter inventories, emissions data management, change management and repeatability. These challenges need to be addressed to limit stakeholders setting emission reduction targets prior to field level emissions quantification and prioritization of "big hit" emissions reduction opportunities. Through the program the authors observed and developed a business readiness methodology and best practices to address these challenges. This paper presents the business readiness methodology developed and discusses a set of best practices for undertaking site inventories and baseline emissions quantification that can be confidently actioned in any jurisdiction to create impactful methane emission reduction pathways.

PT Chevron Pacific Indonesia (PT CPI) operates the Rokan block with 13,000 km pipeline length in Riau province. Oil theft attempts through illegal tapping is one of the challenges in operating Rokan block. PT CPI experienced 16 spill cases with a volume of 1,085.98 barrels in 2018-2019 as reported to The Government of Indonesia. The investigation using why tree method is conducted to identify the system level root causes described through tree branches. Five investigations in 2018-2019 reveal the repetitive root cause pattern. Significant root causes related to spill due to illegal tapping are key stakeholders’ engagement, surveillance resources, surveillance method and emergency response. Recommendations developed to these root causes create a comprehensive strategy to overcome spill due to illegal tapping. Comprehensive strategy by conducting continuous engagements to state government and local government, increasing personnel for surveillance resources, improving surveillance method and implementing thorough response has created significant impacts. Decreasing number of spill case in 2020 affects the revenue performance on financial aspect. Hiring local community for additional surveillance resources creates positive social impact for operation of PT CPI. Improved surveillance program shows sustained oil flow supporting the operation. Environmental impacts could be reduced by deploying response team immediately, recovering and cleaning the site according to regulation related to hazardous waste. Comprehensive strategy from PT CPI can be adopted by other Production Sharing Company (PSC) operators to maintain sustainability to deliver optimum production to meet the national target.

This report explores what (if any) diversification strategies national oil and gas companies (NOGCs) are employing to engage in an energy transition, with a focus on four South American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Ecuador.The authors identify how four South American NOGCs are preparing to transform in the face of climate change and the energy transition. They do so by looking at these companies’ publicly stated ambitions regarding diversification: they focus in particular on whether and how these companies are leaving fossil fuels behind, as a sign of transforming their core business and moving towards a more structural transformation overall in society. The four South American NOGCs are Ecopetrol (Colombia), Petrobras (Brazil), Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF, Argentina) and EP Petroecuador (Ecuador). While all four companies are controlled by their national governments, three are also public companies that are traded on domestic and international stock markets. This report can serve as a resource for comparative analysis and to inform transition strategies in oil and gas–producing countries, for energy and finance researchers, professionals working within NOGCs, and policymakers shaping NOGCs’ missions, strategies and investments. Key messages National oil and gas companies, or NOGCs, must transform to survive and fit into a new global dynamic for mitigating the impacts of climate change. While navigating their roles in generating public revenue and domestic employment, enabling public services, and other characteristics, they will also have to overcome institutional barriers in order to accelerate their diversification into non-fossil fuel businesses. Diversification to new low-carbon businesses is a part of but not the priority for decarbonization for four of South America’s NOGCs. These four South American NOGCs have limited capacity to expand into new low-carbon businesses. More research is needed to assess and strengthen South American NOGCs’ preparedness for a transition to a low-carbon future, including factors such as financial, technical and managerial capabilities, and their role in national and global political economies.

The Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) is the premier civil works engineering and environmental sciences research and development arm of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE). As such, it partners with the Army, Department of Defense (DoD), federal agencies, and civilian organizations to help solve our Nation’s most challenging problems in civil and military engineering, geospatial sciences, water resources, and environmental sciences. A special government knowledge center, ERDC Information Technology Laboratory’s Information Science and Knowledge Management (ISKM) Branch is critical to ERDC’s mission, fulfilling research requirements by offering a variety of editing and library services to advance the creation, dissemination, and curation of ERDC and USACE research knowledge. Serving as the publishing authority for the ERDC, ISKM publishes all ERDC technical publications to the Digital Repository Knowledge Core, sends a copy to the Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) and creates a press release about each publication on the ERDC website. The Forefront seeks to provide an additional mechanism for highlighting some of our technical publications to the ERDC, USACE, Army, and DoD communities. This publication also encourages those outside ERDC to contact us about using ERDC editing services. For more information regarding the reports highlighted in this publications or others that ERDC researchers’ have created, please contact the ISKM virtual reference desk at erdclibrary@ask-a-librarian.info or visit the ISKM’s online repository, Knowledge Core, at https://erdc-library.erdc.dren.mil/ .

UNIDIR defines WAM in a comprehensive manner covering the oversight, accountability and governance of conventional arms and ammunition throughout their management cycle, including the establishment of relevant national frameworks, processes and practices for the safe and secure production and acquisition of materiel, stockpiling, transfers, end use control, tracing and disposal. This holistic approach is essential in ensuring that efforts to better regulate arms and ammunition are undertaken in alignment with broader security sector, rule of law, armed violence reduction, counter-terrorism, and peacebuilding processes, and not in isolation. This country insight presents key findings of the national WAM baseline follow-up assessment conducted in April 2022 by the Government of the Central African Republic (CAR), via the designated national lead entity, the Commission nationale de Lutte contre la Prolifération des Armes Légères et de Petit Calibre (ComNat-ALPC) in cooperation with and with technical assistance from the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), with the organisational and logistical support of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation Mission in the CAR (MINUSCA). The publication draws from the comprehensive baseline follow-up assessment report transmitted by UNIDIR to the Government of CAR in August 2022 and sheds light on the progress made in WAM since the first baseline assessment in 2017, the existing institutional and operational capacities, challenges faced by the Central African authorities at the strategic and operational levels and options for further strengthening the national framework governing the life-cycle management of weapons and ammunition in CAR. The Country Insight covers the period up to April 2022 and does not reflect or take into account more recent changes and developments including with regards to WAM in CAR since April 2022. Nevertheless, most of the main findings as well as the identified options to further strengthening WAM in CAR remain relevant and valid. UNIDIR encourages the community of states, regional and sub-regional organisations and relevant international partners to consult this CAR WAM Country Insight, as well as its Country Insight and Annual WAM Update series, as a basis for strengthening WAM policies and practices at different levels as well as planning, implementing and evaluating future programmes and projects related to WAM, and related areas, in CAR and other respective African States.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor

1. Macroeconomic Summary In December, headline inflation (13.1%) and the average of the core inflation measures (10.3%) continued to trend upward, posting higher rates than those estimated by the Central Bank's technical staff and surpassing the market average. Inflation expectations for all terms exceeded the 3.0% target. In that month, every major group in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) registered higher-than-estimated increases, and the diffusion indicators continued to show generalized price hikes. Accumulated exchange rate pressures on prices, indexation to high inflation rates, and several food supply shocks would explain, in part, the acceleration in inflation. All of this is in a context of significant surplus demand, a tight labor market, and inflation expectations at different terms that exceed the 3.0% target. Compared to the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, the forecast path for headline and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items: EFR) increased (Graphs 1.1 and 1.2), reflecting heightened accumulated exchange rate pressures, price indexation to a higher inflation rate (CPI and the producer price index: PPI), and the rise in labor costs attributed to a larger-than-estimated adjustment in the minimum wage. Nevertheless, headline inflation is expected to begin to ease by early 2023, although from a higher level than had been estimated in October. This would be supported initially by the slowdown forecast for the food CPI due to a high base of comparison, the end anticipated for the shocks that have affected the prices of these products, and the estimated improvement in external and domestic supply in this sector. In turn, the deterioration in real household income because of high inflation and the end of the effects of pent-up demand, plus tighter external and domestic financial conditions would contribute to diluting surplus demand in 2023 and reducing inflation. By the end of 2023, both headline and core (EFR) inflation would reach 8.7% and would be 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively, by December 2024. These forecasts are subject to a great deal of uncertainty, especially concerning the future behavior of international financial conditions, the evolution of the exchange rate, the pace of adjustment in domestic demand, the extent of indexation of nominal contracts, and the decisions taken regarding the domestic price of fuel and electricity. In the third quarter, economic activity surprised again on the upside and the growth projection for 2022 rose to 8.0% (previously 7.9%). However, it declined to 0.2% for 2023 (previously 0.5%). With this, surplus demand continues to be significant and is still expected to weaken during the current year. Annual economic growth in the third quarter (7.1 % SCA)1 was higher than estimated in October (6.4 % SCA), given stronger domestic demand specifically because of higher-than-expected investment. Private consumption fell from the high level witnessed a quarter earlier and net exports registered a more negative contribution than anticipated. For the fourth quarter, economic activity indicators suggest that gross domestic product (GDP) would have remained high and at a level similar to that observed in the third quarter, with an annual variation of 4.1%. Domestic demand would have slowed in annual terms, although at levels that would have remained above those for output, mainly because of considerable private consumption. Investment would have declined slightly to a value like the average observed in 2019. The real trade deficit would have decreased due to a drop in imports that was more pronounced than the estimated decline in exports. On the forecast horizon, consumption is expected to decline from current elevated levels, partly because of tighter domestic financial conditions and a deterioration in real income due to high inflation. Investment would also weaken and return to levels below those seen before the pandemic. In real terms, the trade deficit would narrow due to a lower momentum projection for domestic demand and higher cumulative real depreciation. In sum, economic growth for all of 2022, 2023, and 2024 would stand at 8.0%, 0.2% and 1.0%, respectively (Graph 1.3). Surplus demand remains high (as measured by the output gap) and is expected to decline in 2023 and could turn negative in 2024 (Graph 1.4). Although the macroeconomic forecast includes a marked slowdown in the economy, an even greater adjustment in domestic absorption cannot be ruled out due to the cumulative effects of tighter external and domestic financial conditions, among other reasons. These estimates continue to be subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which is associated with factors such as global political tensions, changes in international interest rates and their effects on external demand, global risk aversion, the effects of the approved tax reform, the possible impact of reforms announced for this year (pension, health, and labor reforms, among others), and future measures regarding hydrocarbon production. In 2022, the current account deficit would have been high (6.3 % of GDP), but it would be corrected significantly in 2023 (to 3.9 % of GDP) given the expected slowdown in domestic demand. Despite favorable terms of trade, the high external imbalance that would occur during 2022 would be largely due to domestic demand growth, cost pressures associated with high freight rates, higher external debt service payments, and good performance in terms of the profits of foreign companies.2 By 2023, the adjustment in domestic demand would be reflected in a smaller current account deficit especially due to fewer imports, a global moderation in prices and cost pressures, and a reduction in profits remitted abroad by companies with foreign direct investment (FDI) focused on the local market. Despite this anticipated correction in the external imbalance, its level as a percentage of GDP would remain high in the context of tight financial conditions. In the world's main economies, inflation forecasts and expectations point to a reduction by 2023, but at levels that still exceed their central banks' targets. The path anticipated for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate increased and the forecast for global growth continues to be moderate. In the fourth quarter of 2022, logistics costs and international prices for some foods, oil and energy declined from elevated levels, bringing downward pressure to bear on global inflation. Meanwhile, the higher cost of financing, the loss of real income due to high levels of global inflation, and the persistence of the war in Ukraine, among other factors, have contributed to the reduction in global economic growth forecasts. In the United States, inflation turned out to be lower than estimated and the members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the growth forecast for 2023. Nevertheless, the actual level of inflation in that country, its forecasts, and expectations exceed the target. Also, the labor market remains tight, and fiscal policy is still expansionary. In this environment, the Fed raised the expected path for policy interest rates and, with this, the market average estimates higher levels for 2023 than those forecast in October. In the region's emerging economies, country risk premia declined during the quarter and the currencies of those countries appreciated against the US dollar. Considering all the above, for the current year, the Central Bank's technical staff increased the path estimated for the Fed's interest rate, reduced the forecast for growth in the country's external demand, lowered the expected path of oil prices, and kept the country’s risk premium assumption high, but at somewhat lower levels than those anticipated in the previous Monetary Policy Report. Moreover, accumulated inflationary pressures originating from the behavior of the exchange rate would continue to be important. External financial conditions facing the economy have improved recently and could be associated with a more favorable international context for the Colombian economy. So far this year, there has been a reduction in long-term bond interest rates in the markets of developed countries and an increase in the prices of risky assets, such as stocks. This would be associated with a faster-than-expected reduction in inflation in the United States and Europe, which would allow for a less restrictive course for monetary policy in those regions. In this context, the risks of a global recession have been reduced and the global appetite for risk has increased. Consequently, the risk premium continues to decline, the Colombian peso has appreciated significantly, and TES interest rates have decreased. Should this trend consolidate, exchange rate inflationary pressures could be less than what was incorporated into the macroeconomic forecast. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their impact on the country remains high, given the unpredictable course of the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, local uncertainty, and the extensive financing needs of the Colombian government and the economy. High inflation with forecasts and expectations above 3.0%, coupled with surplus demand and a tight labor market are compatible with a contractionary stance on monetary policy that is conducive to the macroeconomic adjustment needed to mitigate the risk of de-anchoring inflation expectations and to ensure that inflation converges to the target. Compared to the forecasts in the October edition of the Monetary Policy Report, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed level of output exceeding the productive capacity of the economy. In this context of surplus demand, headline and core inflation continued to trend upward and posted surprising increases. Observed and expected international interest rates increased, the country’s risk premia lessened (but remains at high levels), and accumulated exchange rate pressures are still significant. The technical staff's inflation forecast for 2023 increased and inflation expectations remain well above 3.0%. All in all, the risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored persists, which would accentuate the generalized indexation process and push inflation even further away from the target. This macroeconomic context requires consolidating a contractionary monetary policy stance that aims to meet the inflation target within the forecast horizon and bring the economy's output to levels closer to its potential. 1.2 Monetary Policy Decision At its meetings in December 2022 and January 2023, Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR) agreed to continue the process of normalizing monetary policy. In December, the BDBR decided by a majority vote to increase the monetary policy interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) and in its January meeting by 75 bps, bringing it to 12.75% (Graph 1.5). 1/ Seasonally and calendar adjusted. 2/ In the current account aggregate, the pressures for a higher external deficit come from those companies with FDI that are focused on the domestic market. In contrast, profits in the mining and energy sectors are more than offset by the external revenue they generate through exports. Box 1 - Electricity Rates: Recent Developments and Indexation. Author: Édgar Caicedo García, Pablo Montealegre Moreno and Álex Fernando Pérez Libreros Box 2 - Indicators of Household Indebtedness. Author: Camilo Gómez y Juan Sebastián Mariño