Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Global environmental change – Economic aspects'

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: One of the most topical and widely discussed factors which could lead to the ultimate end of life on earth is global warming and its devastating effects. Several current trends clearly demonstrate that global warming is directly impacting on rising sea levels, the melting of icecaps and other significant worldwide climatic changes. These climatic changes will have a profound effect on the economy of the world as well as having health and social consequences for humans on earth. It has also become evident that mankind has played a significant role in causing global warming through its excessive burning of fossil fuels and its deforestation activities. Mainstream economists have increasingly realised that the prime cause of environmental problems is the absence of markets and more specifically, the absence of private ownership, which provide the foundation for markets. This occurrence has also been described in the literature as the tragedy of the commons. Mankind has come to a point in its history whereby it is in great danger of causing its own annihilation through the destruction of its natural environment. As a result of this, world leaders and many industrialists have realised that it is essential that the world must do something to preserve the natural environment. This was the rationale behind the Kyoto Protocol. In Kyoto 38 industrial states undertook to reduce their total emissions of six important greenhouse gases by at least 5 percent by the period 2012 at the latest. It was agreed in Kyoto that the system to be used to curb global warming should be based on free market principles that would focus on limiting the tragedy of the commons. On this basis it was agreed that the international trade in greenhouse gas emission allowances might fulfil an important role in providing countries and companies with the capabilities to achieve part of their reduction obligations. The Kyoto mechanism was therefore designed on the basis of emissions trading, but also had an equity objective with respect to developing countries. Supporters of the trading scheme are of the opinion that this market will guarantee that certain emission targets are met. In principle, the international trade in emission credits offers several advantages in terms of a flexible and cost-efficient realisation of the reduction obligations undertaken at Kyoto. Supporters of emissions trading are also of the opinion that trading in these gases also has economic and technological benefits. The answer to global warming might be as simple as buy low, sell high conventions. Now greenhouse-gas emissions are becoming a commodity that can be bought and sold on a worldwide scale, just like gold or soybeans. It is expected that the trading in greenhouse-gas emission rights will ultimately constitute the largest commodities market in the world. An international market for greenhouse gas emission allowances is already developing. However, rules governing such transactions are not fully worked out yet. The 178-nation Kyoto Protocol on global warming may provide a start, despite the US's refusal to support the treaty. It will be the aim of this thesis to provide understanding in terms of the functioning of emissions trading schemes and therefore the Kyoto mechanism as a solution to this problem of global warming. It will also be an important objective of this thesis to provide insight into the issues applicable to climatic change and the Kyoto mechanism.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Atmosfeerverwarming is wêreldwyd een van die mees bespreekte kwessies. Die nadelige effek van atmosfeerverwarming as gevolg van die toenemende kweekhuiseffek, het die potensiaal om tot die uiteindelike uitwissing van lewe op aarde te lei. Verskeie tendense dui daarop dat atmosfeerverwarming 'n direkte impak op stygende seevlakke, die ontvriesing van die pakys by die pole en ander noemenswaardige klimaatsversteuringe het. Indien iets drasties nie gedoen word om atmosfeer verhitting te keer nie, sal klimaatsversteuringe 'n geweldig nadelige effek op die wêreld ekonomie te weeg bring, asook 'n nadelige effek op gesondheids- en sosiale toestande tot gevolg hê. Dit het duidelik geword dat die aktiwiteite van die mensdom, hoofsaaklik verbranding van fossielbrandstowwe en ontbossing, te blameer is vir atmosfeerverwarming. Ekonome wêreldwyd het toenemend besef dat die hoofrede vir omgewingsprobleme, soos atmosfeerverwarming, toegeskryf kan word aan die afwesigheid van markte en meer spesifiek die afwesigheid van privaatbesit, wat in effek die basis van die vrye mark vorm. Hierdie gebeurtenis word in die ekonomiese literatuur beskryf as die "tragedie van die gemene goedere" . Wêreldpolitici en industriële leiers het besef dat die mens by 'n punt in sy geskiedenis gekom het waar hy moontlik sy eie uitwissing kan bewerkstellig en dat iets drasties gedoen moet word om die natuurlike omgewing te beskerm om sodoende volhoubare ekonomiese groei te verseker. Hierdie besef het gelei tot die totstandkoming van die Kyoto Protokol waar 38 nywerheidslande ooreengekom het om voor die jaar 2012 hul totale nasionale emissies van die ses belangrikste kweekhuisgasse met ten minste 5 persent tot onder hul 1990 emissievlakke te verminder. Daar was in Kyoto ooreengekom dat die stelsel wat gebruik moet word om die Kyoto doelwitte te bereik sterk vryemark eienskappe moet besit asook meganismes om regverdigheid en gelykheid tussen lande in terme van kweekhuisgasbeperkings te verseker. Die Kyoto meganismes is ontwerp met sterk vryemark eienskappe, wat basies 'n stelsel is waarvolgens lugbesoedelingsregte verhandel kan word. Hierdie verhandeling van besoedelingsregte kan toegepas word om kweekhuis gasse te verminder. Die Kyoto meganismes en dus lugbesoedelingsverhandeling verskaf buigbaarheid aan besighede en lande om hul onderskeie besoedelingsbeperkingsdoelwitte op die mees koste effektiewe manier te bereik. Die antwoord op atmosfeer verwarming kan dalk so eenvoudig wees soos koop laag en verkoop hoog. Kweekhuisgasse is besig om net soos graan of goud 'n kommoditeit te raak. Daar word verwag dat die verhandeling in kweekhuis gas besoedelingsregte uiteindelik sal groei tot die grootste kommoditeitsmark ter wêreld. Ondersteuners van die Kyoto meganismes is van mening dat kweekhuisgas verhandeling ook ekonomiese en tegnologiese voordele inhou. Dit is 'n oogmerk van die Kyoto meganismes om die verskuiwing van tegnologie tussen ontwikkelde en ontwikkelende lande asook volhoubare groei te verseker. 'n Grysmark vir kweekhuisgas regte is reeds internasionaal, voor die beplande instelling van die Kyoto meganismes, aan die ontwikkel. Die reëls en regulasies vir die Kyoto meganismes is nog nie gefinaliseer nie. Dit en die onwilligheid van die VSA om die Protokol te onderteken, belemmer die vroegtydige implementering van die Kyoto meganismes en die effektiwiteit van die stelsel. Dit is die doelwit van die werkstuk om die leser bekend te maak met die funksionering van emissieverhandeling as 'n vryemark stelsel om omgewingsprobleme soos atmosfeerverwarming te verminder. Die werkstuk beoog ook om die kwessies betrokke by klimaatsverandering en die Kyoto meganismes aan die leser te verduidelik.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2005
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Strong scientific evidence suggests that global warming is altering the world's climate and that this phenomenon is being accelerated as a result of human activities. Climate change is affecting weather patterns and, in addition to demonstrated sea-level rise, these in turn have and are likely to continue having significant, mostly negative, impacts - both economic and loss of life - on governments, industries and people. Ocean levels rose between 15 and 20 centimeters in the 20th century, mostly as a result of melting glaciers and thermal expansion of the oceans. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a: 16) in its 2001 estimate suggests a potential rise in average sea level from nine to 88 centimeters from 1990 to 2100. Areas of risk in the City of Cape Town are residential property, infrastructure and beaches in low-lying areas. These areas are likely to be impacted as a result of increasing sea-level rise and increasing severity and frequency of storms. This study seeks to • demonstrate that sufficient evidence exists to compel decision-makers in the City of Cape Town that climate change and the impacts of sea-level rise and increasing frequency and severity of storms need to be considered in development planning; and • test cost-benefit analysis (through climate change impact analysis) as a tool for decision-makers to consider adaptation measures, using Langebaan as a case study. The research comprises a comprehensive literature study of the impacts of climate change, particularly with respect to coastal areas. A case study based on the eroding beaches at Langebaan is used to test cost-benefit analysis as a tool for decision-makers in dealing with the impacts. Despite the uncertainties associated with the impacts of climate change (time, place and extent) the issues of sea-level rise and severe storms seem to warrant further investigation, especially at a local level. This study provides local context to a global problem and makes recommendations for decision-makers in the City of Cape Town. Climate impact analysis (incorporating cost-benefit analysis) is suggested as a tool to quantify avoided damages at vulnerable coastal sites in the City of Cape Town. In conclusion, the impacts of climate change are a complex and multivariate problem. However, there are a number of identified vulnerable areas along the coastline of the City of Cape Town and using tools like climate impact analysis and cost-benefit analysis may assist in identifying, costing and managing these economic risks before the problem becomes unmanageable - a case for quantifying avoided damage.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sterk wetenskaplike bewyse bestaan dat globale verwarming besig is om die wêreld se klimaat te verander en hierdie verskynsel word versnel deur die mens se handelinge. Klimaatsverandering affekteer weerpatrone en bykomend tot gedemonstreerde stygende seevlakke, sal dit waarskynlik 'n langdurige en meestal negatiewe impak - beide ekonomies en lewensverlies - op regerings, industrieë en mense hê. Seevlakke het in die twintigste eeu met tussen 15 en 20 sentimeter gestyg, meestal as gevolg van smeltende ysberge en hitte uitsetting van die oseane. Die 'International Panel on Climate Change' (IPCC, 2001a: 16) het in hul skatting 'n waarskynlike seevlak styging van tussen 9 en 88 sentimeters voorspel vir die tydperk 1990 - 2100. Risikogebiede in die Stad Kaapstad is residensiële gebiede, infrastruktuur en strande in laagliggende gebiede. Hierdie gebiede sal ge-affekteer word deur stygende seevlakke en groter en meer gereelde storms. Hierdie studie poog om • te demonstreer dat voldoende bewyse bestaan om besluitnemers van die Stad Kaapstad te oortuig dat weerveranderinge en die impak van seevlakstygings en toenemende storms in aanmerking geneem moet word in ontwikkelings beplanning; en • koste-voordeel analises (deur klimaatsverandering impak analises) te beproef as 'n hulpmiddel vir besluitnemers om aanpasbare maatreëls te oorweeg, deur Langebaan as 'n voorbeeld te gebruik. Ten spyte van onsekerhede wat saamgaan met die impak van klimaatverandering (tyd, plek en omvang) regverdig die problem van stygende seevlakke en erge storms verdere ondersoek, meer spesifiek op plaaslike vlak. Hierdie studie gee plaaslike konteks aan 'n globale probleem en maak aanbevelings aan beplanners van die Stad Kaapstad. Klimaat impak analises word as hulpmiddel voorgestel om vermybare skades by kwesbare kusgebiede in die Stad Kaapstad te kwantifiseer. Ten slotte: die impak van klimaatsverandering is 'n komplekse probleem met baie fasette. Nietemin is daar verskere sensitiewe areas langs die kus van Stad Kaapstad, en klimaat impak analises en koste-voordeel analises kan help met die identifisering, kosteberekening en bestuur van hierdie ekonomiese risiko areas, voordat dit onhanteerbaar raak.

Recently, bankers have come to realise that banking operations, especially corporate lending, affect and are affected by the natural environment and that consequently, the banks might have an important role to play in helping to raise environmental standards. Although the environment presents significant risks to banks, in particular environmental credit risk, it also perhaps presents profitable opportunities. Stricter environmental regulations have forced companies to invest in environmentally friendly technologies and pollution control measures and in tum generated lending opportunities for bankers. This research examines the corporate practices of three of the four dominant banks in South Africa with respect to the environment, focusing on issues of climate change and environmental risk management by way of reporting and disclosure to all stakeholders. The emphasis on environmental reporting by South African banks has been reinforced by the latest release of the King III Report on Corporate Governance in South Africa. Global governance requires that the triple-bottom line should be applied in all corporate undertakings due to globalisation and trade liberalisation; however, the banking sector has responded poorly to the clarion call. The false view that the banks have no significant relationship with environmental degradation is being disproved. Environmental management is a huge and massive reconstruction of what has gone wrong with nature by human influence. The South African banks have had to face with the challenging tasks of reporting on the direct and mostly the indirect impacts of their environmental activities. Based on the three sampled banks which incidentally had greater percentages of the market capitalizations, the banks have fairly performed in environmental reporting. For example, Standard Bank (SA) Ltd has just signed the Equator Principles in 2007 implying corporate lending was done in 2007 without any respect to environmental impact assessments by corporate borrowers. Consequently, environmental reporting was not done to facilitate informed decision-making by stakeholders mostly shareholders and the communities where borrowers tun businesses. The objective of this research study is to investigate the extent and quantity of/voluntary environmental disclosures in the annual and sustainability reports of the banks listed on Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The periods examined were those subsequent to the release of the Exposure Draft Coalition for Environmentally Responsible Economies (CERES) Global Reporting Initiatives (GRI) issued in 1999. Using content analysis to focus on the environmental aspects, the research study compared three annual reports and three sustainability reports of 2007 year for the three sampled banks in order to evaluate reporting practices in the period surrounding this intervention. The results suggest a trend to triple bottom-line reporting and the extent and quantity of environmental information, albeit in specific categories.

Scientists started to study the relationship between changing weather patterns and the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other harmful gasses. They soon discovered compelling evidence that CO2 concentration and other gases have been increasing and it was causing temperatures to increase in certain areas on the earth, which disturb historic weather patterns. Climate change has become a very popular field of study in the modern science. Europe first introduced measures to reduce carbon emissions but it was the Kyoto in 1997 where global leaders were asked to participate in a joint protocol to reduce greenhouse gases. South Africa responded to climate change challenges in 2008 with the Long term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS). The Integrated Resource Plan for electricity to 2030 was developed from the LTMS scenarios and after some major amendments it was accepted and promulgated by Government and has recently been included in the National Development Plan to 2030 (NDP). There are concerns about the achievability of some of the objectives listed in the NDP and this study explored the IRP2010 as the proposed strategy to meet energy demand and reduce emissions. The purpose for this study was to answer this question: Is there an optimum climate change mitigation strategy for South Africa and how can the effect thereof be simulated on economic growth? Through primary and secondary research during the study it was possible to define some 32 categories of energy producing assets that are commercially active or nearly market-ready. The characteristics of the various assets and the relevant fuel are defined in mathematical equations. It was found that the three portfolios that matched the 450TWh electricity requirement would perform substantially better than the NDP portfolio in terms of cost and similar on emissions with marginally fewer employment opportunities created. The proposed electricity strategy in this study was 390TWh and 33.5 Million tonnes of oil consumption by 2030. This strategy was substantially more affordable than the 450TWh strategy. Trends in the Supply and Use tables since 1993 were studied and then forecasted to 2030 to determine consumption levels on electricity and liquid fuel into the future. It was found that electricity demand is seriously overestimated and South Africa would end up with large excess capacity in electricity infrastructures if the NDP energy strategy (IRP2010) is implemented. It is concluded that the NDP energy strategy to 2030 is based on an incorrect electricity demand forecast. It would lead to excessive investment in an electricity infrastructure. Government has confirmed that part of the new infrastructure would be nuclear. It is also found that NDP has not clearly supported nuclear as part of the strategy. Nuclear is partly the reason why the capital requirement of the NDP portfolio is so much higher than the other portfolios. It is the conclusion of this study that South Africa do not need to invest in a nuclear build programme as the electricity demand would be adequately covered by adding the new Medupi and Kusile power stations, Ingula pump storage scheme, some wind and solar renewables, electricity from cogeneration, biogas, biomass, small hydro and imported hydro from neighbour countries. To invest in electricity capacity to generate 450TWh annually by 2030 would result in excessive energy cost, GDP growth could be up to 1% lower due to underperforming capital investments in the electricity infrastructure and higher energy cost would lead to a decline in global competitiveness.

We examined how fast- and slow-growing families (based on height at 10 years) of Pinus banksiana Lamb. are affected by a climate altered by CO$ sb2$ during their first growing season. Our primary objective was to evaluate the possibility that genotypes performing best under present conditions may not necessarily do best under projected warmer climate. Seedlings were grown for six months in two climatic environments (350 $ mu$L/L CO$ sb2$ x present temperatures and 700 $ mu$L/L CO$ sb2$ x 4$ sp circ$C warmer temperatures) and with 100 ppm and 5 ppm nitrogen.
The CO$ sb2$T$ sp circ$ environment had a significant effect on most biomass components of seedlings and water-use efficiency but not on height and other growth variables. The nitrogen fertilization was generally the most significant effect of the treatments for most growth variables.
All the families responded in a similar way to variations in the growing environments except for WUE. Family differences were more important for measurements of height and growth variables than for biomass components. The architecture of seedlings was also highly variable between families. Norm of reaction graphs were built for several growth variables to outline which families were overall most successful in an enriched CO$ sb2$T$ sp circ$ environment. Of the 15 families studied, four of them were classified as most successful in a projected high CO$ sb2$T$ sp circ$ climate.

This thesis is about economic transformation in Mexico City between 1980 and 2000. It explores the extent to which Mexico City’s economic restructuring process has been caused by trade liberalisation. The thesis assesses the extent to which industries located in Mexico City reacted to a reorientation in production focus, characterised by the shift from national to international markets. It analyses in detail the pace and geography of neo-liberal economic change, and its effects upon a specific location. It also evaluates the role played by global economic agents in gauging the forces influencing economic restructuring in Mexico, and particularly in Mexico City. At the core of this restructuring process is the change in regional industrial location patterns in Mexico, as well as the decline of manufacturing – with regard to production and employment – in Mexico City and its rise as a service centre. The thesis therefore engages with current debates on new economic geography on the one hand and globalisation on the other, focusing attention on the possible emergence of a group of “global” urban centres embedded in a broader network of cities in developed and developing countries alike, which connect global production circuits and coordinate global/regional markets. More concretely, the thesis focuses on the automotive and consumer electronics industries with the aim of understanding the causes and effects of economic events in terms of location decisions, particularly those made by transnational corporations. By placing the empirical processes of economic restructuring within the theoretical context of trade liberalisation and globalisation, I seek to make an original contribution to social science debates about the way industry reacts to economic signals and how global processes, despite taking place in specific locations, have wide-reaching effects upon social welfare, mainly though the transformation of local labour markets.

According to Munich Re (2013), economic losses related to natural disasters have increased from an average of $50 billion in the 1980s to $200 billion over the last decade. The cost of natural disasters is accumulating rapidly and some claim that climate change is responsible. Others believe that human behaviors like population growth or land use should be blamed for these rising costs. The process of climate change has already taken place, and it is expected to continue to impact the future. As a result, people are more vulnerable today. Therefore, understanding the economic aspects of climate change and natural hazard risks should be considered as a major issue and addressed in greater detail. This dissertation aimed to explore household preferences of climate change adaptation and the economic impacts of natural hazards at both micro- and macro- levels. The dissertation consisted of three related empirical studies based on the two main changes that will occur with climate change predicted by scientific climate models: stronger hurricanes and rising sea levels. The first chapter examined the impact of a recent hurricane on household activities. The objective was to find out whether a more intensified hurricane caused greater damages, and whether such damages had a long-lasting impact on household recovery. If the impact of natural hazards is worse than before, people should avoid putting themselves in harm's way. However, evidence indicates that the population in coastal cities is still growing fast, as people tend to reside near the beaches and attractive landscapes. Concerns are thus prompted by the possible lack of perceptions for future risks caused by natural hazards. Therefore, the second chapter focused on household perceptions and preferences for adapting to sea level rise in Florida. Lastly, although a disaster strikes rich or poor nations indifferently, some small island nations are among the most vulnerable. In the third chapter, the macroeconomic implications of natural hazards in Central America and the Caribbean were investigated. A careful examination of the economic factors that can lead to smaller losses and higher abilities to cope with disasters is crucial in such countries.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2000.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This mini-study project was undertaken to investigate the dynamics of the international wine industry in an era of increased globalisation. The capacity of old and new wine producing countries to adapt to the new dynamics was assessed by determining their competitive positions in the global industry. The impact of industry driving forces on trends and future developments was determined and predictions were made for the immediate future of the industry. The cyclical nature of the global wine industry was investigated and the industry's ability to balance supply and demand in the foreseeable future was assessed. Recommendations were finally made on how to establish greater stability in the global wine industry. Wine consumption in traditional wine countries decreased as a result of changing life styles, and prompted the wine industry to focus increasingly on importing countries. Transformation within the wine industry is assisted by the innovative and aggressive marketing strategies of new wine countries. Product differentiation, brand building and the development of a more effective distribution channel are allowing new wine countries to increase market share at the expense of old wine countries. The global wine industry experiences cyclical instability in supply and demand. Evidence suggests that a cycle is completed every eight years. A threatening oversupply of quality white wine will result in increased competition and lower prices, while red wine supply is likely to exceed demand from 2003 onwards. The wine industry needs to introduce some measure of control to co-ordinate expansion and replacement programs of vineyards with an increased quality focus. Producers and wineries will have to be far more sensitive to changing consumer attitudes and life styles and should develop appropriate production strategies in order to meet changing demands.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie werkstuk is onderneem om die veranderende dinamika binne die internasionale wynindustrie te ondersoek teen 'n agtergrond van toenemende globalisering. Die vermoë van oud en nuwe wêreld produksielande om aan te pas by veranderinge is beoordeel deur die bepaling van hul onderskeie mededingende posisies in die globale wynindustrie. Die impak van industrie-dryfkragte op tendense en toekomstige verwikkelinge is ondersoek en voorspellings is gemaak vir die onmiddellike toekoms van die industrie. Die sikliese aard van die globale wynbedryf is ondersoek, sowel as die vermoë van die bedryf om vraag en aanbod in die afsienbare toekoms te stabiliseer. Ter afsluiting word aanbevelings gemaak ten einde groter stabiliteit in die bedryf te bewerkstellig. Leefstyl veranderinge en 'n gepaardgaande daling in wynverbruik in tradisionele wynlande, veroorsaak dat die internasionale wynindustrie sy aandag toenemend op invoerlande vestig. Vernuwing in die bedryf word aangevuur deur die kragtige bemarkingsaanslag van nuwe wêreldlande. Deur differensiasie van hul produkte, handelsmerkontwikkeling en die uitbou van 'n meer effektiewe distribusiekanaal, slaag nuwe wynlande reeds daarin om hul internasionale markaandeel uit te bou ten koste van ou wynlande. Die globale wynbedryf ervaar sikliese onstabiliteit in vraag en aanbod en bewyse is gevind dat die siklus elke agt jaar voltooi word. 'n Dreigende ooraanbod van hoë kwaliteit witwyn sal lei tot strawwer mededinging en laer wynpryse. Die rooiwynaanbod sal moontlik teen 2003 die vraag oorskry. 'n Mate van beheer word onder meer vir die industrie voorgestel om te verseker dat uitbreiding en vervanging van wingerde beheersd en kwaliteitgerig sal geskied. Groter bewustheid van moontlike verandering van verbruikersvoorkeure en daadwerklike aksie is krities belangrik, ten einde 'n herhaling van die afgelope dertig jaar se negatiewe groei tendens te voorkom.

The potential for an adaptive response to global climatic change was evaluated for an annual C$ sb3$ weed, Brassica juncea, by performing a selection on fecundity for eight generations. During the selection, atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature were gradually increased from current levels (370 $ rm mu L cdot L sp{-1}$ CO$ sb2$, 20$ sp circ$C) to conditions predicted during the next century by climate models (650 $ rm mu L cdot L sp{-1}$ CO$ sb2$, 23.6$ sp circ$C) including heat stress events at 32$ sp circ$C/26$ sp circ$C day/night), At the end of the selection, a reciprocal transplant experiment was conducted to identify genetic differences between control selection lines of plants and those selected under increasing CO$ sb2$ and temperature. I observed a genetic adaptation of early vegetative growth elevated CO$ sb2$ and temperature, which resulted in to 63% more biomass and 11% higher photosynthetic rates. Reproductive biomass, however, was decreased during the selection, mainly due to temperature stress, which disrupted flower development and induced strong maternal effects, counteracting the selection on fecundity.

In my thesis, I address two important issues: (i) the creation of a price signal through the use of carbon markets (or cap-and-trade schemes) and (ii) the necessity to reach a global agreement on greenhouse gas emission reduction policies. It consists of three separate papers. Chapters 2 and 3 of this thesis emphasize theoretically and empirically the fact that achieving international cooperation on climate change is very difficult. Chapter 3 suggests that the global nature of the climate change problem and the design of climate agreements (i.e. the means available to reduce CO2 emissions) may explain this failure. Chapter 2 shows theoretically that asymmetric information between countries may exacerbate the free-rider problem. These two chapters also provide some possible solutions to the lack of international cooperation. To address the issue of information asymmetry, chapter 2 proposes the creation of institutions in charge of gathering and certifying countries' private information before environmental negotiations. If achieving international cooperation is still not possible, chapter 3 suggests that regional cooperation may supplement global treaties. Chapter 1 presents an example of such a regional agreement to reduce CO2 emissions. The EU emissions trading system is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change. However, as it is highlighted in chapter 1, the design of such regional carbon markets really matters for their success in reducing carbon emissions. This chapter shows the interactions between intertemporal permit trading and the incentives of firms to undertake long-term investments in abatement technologies.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
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Cette thèse étudie théoriquement et empiriquement les interrelations entre la santé de la population, la dégradation de l'environnement et le développement économique, ses conséquences pour les pays en développement, et fournit certaines réponses en termes de politique économique. Elle est subdivisée en deux parties. La première partie s’intéresse à la relation entre l’environnement, la santé, et les inégalités. Elle analyse dans un premier temps l’hypothèse selon laquelle la dégradation de l'environnement pourrait être considérée comme un canal supplémentaire par lequel les inégalités de revenu affectent les taux de mortalité infantile et juvénile (chapitre 2). Nos travaux théoriques et empiriques montrent que les inégalités de revenu affectent négativement la qualité de l'air et de l'eau, et cela à son tour dégrade la santé de la population. Par conséquent, la dégradation de l'environnement peut être considérée comme un canal non négligeable à travers lequel les inégalités de revenu influence l’état de santé. Il est ensuite démontré que les émissions de dioxyde de soufre (SO2) et celles des micro-Particules (PM10) sont en partie responsables des grandes disparités dans la mortalité infantile et juvénile au sein des pays pauvres (chapitre 3) .En outre, nos résultats soutiennent l’idée selon laquelle les institutions démocratiques jouent un rôle de protection sociale en atténuant cet effet pour les classes de revenu les plus pauvres et ainsi réduisent les inégalités de santé provoquées par la pollution. La deuxième partie évalue le lien entre la santé, l'environnement et la croissance économique. Le Chapitre 4 évalue l'effet de la santé (charge globale de la maladie, maladies transmissibles et paludisme) sur la croissance économique. Ce chapitre montre que les indicateurs de santé, lorsqu'ils sont correctement mesurés par l'écart entre l'état de santé actuel et une situation de santé idéal où toute la population vit à un âge avancé, indemne de maladie et d'invalidité, et lorsqu’ils sont convenablement instrumentés, ont un impact négatif significatif sur la performance économique. Les conséquences de ces interactions sur la convergence économique des pays pauvres vers leur état régulier, sont théoriquement et empiriquement analysées dans le dernier chapitre. Il en ressort que la dégradation de l'environnement réduit la capacité des pays pauvres d'atteindre leur état régulier, renforçant ainsi notre argument théorique selon lequel l’amélioration de la qualité de l'environnement joue un rôle considérable dans le processus de convergence économique. En outre, la dégradation de la qualité de l'air et de l'eau affecte négativement la performance économique, et l'état de santé demeure un canal important par lequel la dégradation de l'environnement agit sur la croissance économique même si elle n'est pas le seul. L’hypothèse de la courbe environnementale de Kuznets (EKC) est également vérifiée
This dissertation investigates theoretically and empirically the interrelationships among population’s health,environmental degradation and economic development, its consequences for developing countries, and someeffective policy responses. The first part explores the association between health, environment, and inequalities. Itfirstly analyzes whether environmental degradation could be considered as an additional channel through whichincome inequality affects infant and child mortality (chapter 2). Theoretical and empirical investigations show thatincome inequality affects negatively air and water quality, and this in turn worsens population’s health. Therefore,environmental degradation is an important channel through which income inequality affects population health. Then,it is shown that sulphur dioxide emission (SO2) and particulate matter (PM10) are in part responsible for the largedisparities in infant and child mortalities between and within developing countries (chapter 3). In addition, we foundthat democratic institutions play the role of social protection by mitigating this effect for the poorest income classesand reducing the health inequality it provokes. The second part is devoted to the link among health, environment,and economic growth. The effect of health (global burden of disease, communicable disease, and malaria) oneconomic growth is assessed in Chapter 4. This chapter shows that health indicators, when correctly measured by thegap between current health status and an ideal health situation where the entire population lives to an advanced age,free of disease and disability, and when accurately instrumented have significant impact on economic performance.The consequences of these interrelationships on the convergence of poor countries towards their steady state aretheoretically and empirically investigated in the last Chapter (chapter 5). It is found that environment degradationreduces the ability of poor countries to reach their own steady state, reinforcing our argument according to whichenvironment quality improvement plays a considerable role in economic convergence process. Moreover, thedegradation of air and water quality affects negatively economic performance, and health status remains an importantchannel through which environment degradation affects economic growth even if it is not alone. The EnvironmentalKuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis is also verified

Climate change is a human development challenge. Its negative impacts have the potential to reverse the human development gains made in Africa. South Africa, just like many other countries in the Global South, is being negatively affected by climate change. The country`s economy is largely dependent on agriculture, extractive industries and manufacturing, all of which are vulnerable to climate change in different ways. This vulnerability means different public and private stakeholders must institute sustainable climate change mitigation and adaptation measures so as to ameliorate climate change impacts. Gradually transforming to an environmentally friendly ‘green economy’ and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are some of South Africa’s climate change mitigation priorities. Just like the public sector, the private sector has a major role to play in this transition to a low carbon economy through minimising its carbon emissions in their operations. Against this background, this qualitative research examines the role played by four major supermarkets (Shoprite, Spar, Pick n Pay and Woolworths), in climate change mitigation and resilience building. It does so through an appraisal of their mitigation and resilience programs. The four supermarkets were purposively selected in East London, Eastern Cape. Data collection combined heavy reliance on desktop discourse analysis with field interviews in the form of purposively sampled key informant interviews. The results show that the four major supermarkets are implementing a variety of climate change mitigation and resilience strategies. These include reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, prioritisation of renewable energy, recycling and environmentally friendly packaging, promotion of sustainable ways of farming and improved fuel efficiency in their transport systems. In terms of policy improvement, the study recommends that there is need for supermarkets to learn from each other’s’ climate change mitigation initiatives so as to advance South Africa’s ‘green economy’ agenda.

There is convergence at the international level that conserving biodiversity can contribute to poverty alleviation, but empirical evidence for this relationship is scarce. In this thesis I assess the relationship between poverty and biodiversity, within the context of land use change, using a case-study from the Solomon Islands. This interdisciplinary study is based on both social and ecological data, primarily collected through focus groups, household surveys and avian line transect surveys. Poor households in Kahua were characterised by fewer members of a working age and fewer male members. They were also found to own fewer assets, which were correlated to lower land tenure. Natural resources, including wild foods, were a crucial resource for the consumption and income for poor households, with evidence of wild foods buffering shortfalls in household consumption. The livelihoods of poor households were dependent on natural resources, whereas wealthier households relied on cash crops. The lower involvement of poor households in cash cropping suggests that the poor have less access to such income sources, possibly through a lack of initial land holding assets. Cash crop areas of monoculture cocoa were the most intensive land use in Kahua and were found to be a poor habitat for many bird species, including most endemics. Overall, the relationship between poverty and biodiversity was found to be complex, context dependent and influenced by various social and institutional factors. Household inequalities in access to land and resources indicate that a social-ecological trap may be occurring for poorer households in Kahua, possibly perpetuated by the livelihoods of wealthier households. More research is required in translating the concept of social-ecological traps into management actions, but this thesis concludes that this could be a useful concept for improving poverty alleviation and biodiversity conservation initiatives.

The rapid growth of Louisiana's coastal restoration science and technology assets is paralleled by the growth of business resources to fulfill myriad project needs. Many institutions and organizations in Louisiana seek to further develop the state's research, education, engineering and related restoration assets into a globally competitive set of industries with exportable expertise and products that help the state capitalize on its water challenges. Globally, similar efforts are identified (and often branded) as water technology innovation clusters (or more simply water clusters). This paper explores the phenomenon of the development of water clusters by public-private partnerships and initiatives, nationally and internationally, in a comparative analysis with Louisiana.

The broad objective of the study was to determine the economic value of local pigs in marketand subsistence-oriented production systems in communal areas of Southern Africa. Data were collected from 288 households to investigate farmer perceptions, effects on pig production and handling of disease outbreaks such as classical swine fever (CSF) in market- and subsistenceoriented production systems. The utilisation of local pigs in these market- and subsistenceoriented production systems in improving people‟s welfare was evaluated. Climate change was identified by farmers in these production systems as a major constraint to pig production hence an experiment was carried out in the hottest season to determine diurnal heat-related physiological and behavioural responses in Large White (LW) and South African local pigs. The same genotypes were used to determine effects of diurnal heat-related stress on their growth performance. Choice experiment was done to determine farmer preferences for local pig traits and implicit prices for these traits in CSF-affected and unaffected areas that were under subsistence- and market-oriented production systems. In this experiment, the importance of heat tolerance was assessed relative to other productive and climate change adaptation traits. Significantly more pigs were culled in the CSF-affected areas that were market-oriented (8.0 ± 1.76) than subsistence-oriented (4.1 ± 1.00) production system. The risk of parasites and disease challenges was high in subsistence-oriented production system and coastal areas. In both production systems, CSF was perceived as destructive since the culling of pigs affected pork availability and income generation. The high risk of disease outbreaks and threat of climate change caused farmers in subsistence-oriented production system to select local pigs for their adaptive traits while those in the market-oriented production system focused on productive imported pigs. Farmers (83 %) indicated that they wanted pig genotypes that were adapted to climate change effects such as hot conditions. Local pigs were found to have superior heat tolerance over LW pigs (P < 0.05) in terms of lower heart rate and skin surface temperature. Frequency per day and duration for behavioural heat loss activities such as wallowing, sleeping in a prostrate posture and sprawling in slurry were also lower (P < 0.05) for local than LW pigs. The superiority of heat tolerance of local over LW pigs was further confirmed by their uncompromised growth performance under high diurnal temperatures. The Pearson‟s product moment correlation coefficient between temperature and feed conversion ratio for LW pigs was strongly positive (r = 0.50; P < 0.001) unlike the weak and positive correlation for local pigs (r = 0.20; P < 0.05). There was a quadratic relationship between temperature and average daily gain (ADG) for both pig genotypes. The regression coefficients for ADG were higher (P < 0.001) for LW than local pigs. It was concluded that at high ambient temperatures, performance of local pigs was less compromised than for LW pigs. Although local pigs were found to be heat tolerant, results of choice experiment showed that this trait was not selected for relative to other traits. Keeping pigs that required bought-in feeds, fell sick often and produced low pork quality (eating quality based on farmer perceptions) negatively affected farmers‟ livelihoods more in subsistence- than market-oriented production system. Farmers in market-oriented production system derived more benefit from productive traits such as heavier slaughter weights and large litter size than subsistence-oriented farmers. Under the subsistence-oriented production system, farmers in CSF-affected areas placed high prices on adaptive traits than the unaffected areas. Subsistence-oriented farmers who were affected by CSF wanted a total compensation price of R10 944.00 (USD1563.43) for keeping a pig genotype with unfavourable traits when compared to R4235.00 (USD605.00) for their CSF-unaffected counterparts. Implicit prices for traits could not be determined for market-oriented production system. It was concluded that farmers in CSFaffected areas placed high economic values on pig traits than farmers from the CSF-unaffected areas. The findings suggest that adapted local pigs can be promoted in subsistence-oriented production systems while productive imported pigs and their crosses with local pigs can be kept in market-oriented production systems.

Considerable interest lies in understanding the hydrologic response to climate change in the upper Deschutes Basin, particularly as it relates to groundwater fed streams. Much of the precipitation occurring in the recharge zone falls as snow. Consequently, the timing of runoff and recharge depend on accumulation and melting of the snowpack. Numerical modeling can provide insights into evolving hydrologic system response for resource management consideration. A daily mass and energy balance model known as the Deep Percolation Model (DPM) was developed for the basin in the 1990s. This model uses spatially distributed data and is driven with daily climate data to calculate both daily and monthly mass and energy balance for the major components of the hydrologic budget across the basin. Previously historical daily climate data from weather stations in the basin was used to drive the model. Now we use the University of Washington Climate Impact Group's 1/16th degree daily downscaled climate data to drive the DPM for forecasting until the end of the 21st century. The downscaled climate data is comprised from the mean of eight GCM simulations well suited to the Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, there are low emission and high emission scenarios associated with each ensemble member leading to two distinct means. For the entire basin progressing into the 21st century, output from the DPM using both emission scenarios as a forcing show changes in the timing of runoff and recharge as well as significant reductions in snowpack. Although the DPM calculated amounts of recharge and runoff varies between the emission scenario of the ensemble under consideration, all model output shows loss of the spring snowmelt runoff / recharge peak as time progresses. The response of the groundwater system to changing in the time and amount of recharge varies spatially. Short flow paths in the upper part of the basin are potentially more sensitive to the change in seasonality. However, geologic controls on the system cause this signal to attenuate as it propagates into the lower portions of the basin. This scale-dependent variation to the response of the groundwater system to changes in seasonality and magnitude of recharge is explored by applying DPM calculated recharge to an existing regional groundwater flow model.

South Africa has less than 1 percent of the global land surface, yet it is ranked highly in terms of remaining mineral resources. Mineral wealth has not translated into a better life for all. Poverty, however, abounds; particularly in the rural areas and this study seeks to identify a solution or partial solution to this situation. The study combines two critical areas, Mineral Based Rural Development, and Mineral Based Enterprise Development and draws from it a model for Mineraldriven Rural Economic Development viable for all parts of South Africa. This study comprised research on a national scale and thus covered a section of each of South Africa‟s nine provinces. It investigated the conditions in rural and urban centres, and geologically, it traversed examples of Archaean, Proterozoic and Phanerozoic formations. The field visits deliberately set out to look at some of the lowest value commodities; typically the only minerals available to the surrounding rural communities. This was done to see if a case could be made for even the lowest value commodities which are often found furthest from the large markets. This study indicates that for a rural area to be able to compete nationally or internationally, it is important to be competitive so that the area can participate in the economy. The creation of regional competitive areas allow for the focusing of strategies and funding for targeted rural projects. Enterprises, typically the product of entrepreneurial activity, are required to increase economic intensity and activity. xxvii The goal of poverty reduction, has been identified by government so that enterprises, as products of economic development, can be focused on the situation. Interviews conducted by the researcher indicated that part of the problem to overcome is the bureaucracy created by government which hinders enterprise development. Recommendations are made that government should exempt rural enterprises from some of the compliance hurdles. This will serve to accelerate rural development. An important aspect of urban enterprises is that they have access to labour without too many problems. Thirteen developed or developing corridors were visited of the five types of development corridors identified. It was found that those in areas of high poverty (for example the corridors of the Eastern Cape) are difficult to develop and make self-sustaining. The corridors linked to any point of Gauteng (Johannesburg or Pretoria) are more robust, although the relatively short length of the corridor is not an indicator of effectiveness. The key recommendations made include the completion of a national rural mineral-asset audit; the use of the information to demarcate rural-regions that can be developed as nationally and internationally competitive regions; the establishment of a rural Resource and Training Academy(ies) so that skills are developed close to areas where they will be deployed; provision of an easier way to launch mineral-based rural enterprises and incentivise these for accelerated development; and the development of an indigenous body of knowledge to mine small scale deposits

[EN] In the last decade, there has been an increase in demand for biofuels, fostered by public policies. In the European Union, Directive 2009/28/EC (RED) establishes a 10% target for renewable energy use in the transport sector by 2020, in order to reduce overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In view of the land use change (LUC) that has recently occurred on a global scale as a consequence of bioenergy expansion, environmental considerations are more frequently incorporated into biofuel policies in order to promote only those biofuels delivering substantial GHG savings. The aim of the present thesis has been to analyze the environmental effects of the introduction of biodiesel for transport in the context of Spain, by applying different methodologies under a life cycle perspective, in order to address controversial issues, such as indirect LUC. First of all, the environmental and economic benefits brought about by an integrated process for waste management have been analyzed; biodiesel is obtained from the treatment of used cooking oil (UCO). The evaluation of the environmental performance has been carried out by means of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology, while the financial assessment has been performed by applying a Life Cycle Costing (LCC). Both methodologies are based on a holistic approach and are crucial for a more thorough understanding of the sustainability of the proposed system. The combined study shows that the process has the potential to cause significant environmental benefits (subject to methodological assumptions), but this comes at the expense of the profits generated when the analysis is carried out from a municipal point of view. LCA has been subsequently applied to different systems for biodiesel production under a consequential approach, as the only way to measure indirect effects. There are different methodologies to carry out a consequential LCA, and all of them require the application of economic concepts. The first one consists of performing system expansion in order to include the additional functions provided by the co-products, since indirect effects arise from co-product interactions with other life cycles in the international market. This has allowed for the biodiesel domestically produced from UCO to be compared with the soybean biodiesel imported from Argentina. Furthermore, a mathematical programming model has been proposed based on the biodiesel sector's nameplate capacity in Spain. Its aim is to determine the optimal feedstock mix according to economic criteria, in order to meet the target demand for 2020; the biodiesel resulting from the mix must also fulfill the environmental requirements in the RED. The model allows for an LCA to be simultaneously carried out, in order to calculate the emissions associated with each production pathway. Indirect emissions from LUC in the Spanish agriculture can also be estimated. Finally, a general equilibrium model has been used to analyze the global environmental consequences, in terms of GHG emissions and LUC, of increasing the demand for biodiesel in the EU to meet the RED targets, in combination with recent anti-dumping measures on biodiesel imports from some specific countries. The outcomes from these studies have allowed for emission factors to be determined for different biodiesel production pathways in the Spanish market. Not only global warming has been taken into account but also other impact categories, which may be equally critical. In addition, pros and cons of the methodologies applied have been identified, depending on the goal and scope of the study; they should be applied in a complementary manner for a better understanding of the global phenomenon of bioenergy, increasing the confidence in GHG emission results. Reducing uncertainty in LUC estimates is crucial to enhance the applicability of future biofuel policies.
[ES] La demanda de biocombustibles ha aumentado progresivamente en los últimos años, fomentada por políticas públicas. En la Unión Europea, la Directiva 2009/28/EC (RED) establece un objetivo del 10% para el uso de energías renovables en el sector del transporte en 2020, con tal de reducir los gases de efecto invernadero (GEI). Ante la evidencia del cambio en el uso del suelo (CUS) a escala global a consecuencia del auge de los biocombustibles, se han incorporado consideraciones ambientales para promover únicamente aquellos biocarburantes que causen un ahorro sustancial de GEI. El objetivo de la presente tesis ha sido analizar los efectos ambientales de la introducción de biodiesel en el contexto español, aplicando distintas metodologías bajo una perspectiva del ciclo de vida, con el fin de abordar cuestiones controvertidas como el CUS indirecto. En primer lugar, se han evaluado los beneficios ambientales y económicos derivados de un proceso integrado de tratamiento de residuos donde se produce biodiesel a partir de aceite de cocina usado (ACU). La evaluación ambiental se ha realizado mediante la metodología de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV), mientras que la evaluación financiera se ha llevado a cabo mediante el cálculo del Coste del Ciclo de Vida. Ambas metodologías comparten el mismo enfoque holístico y son esenciales para una comprensión más completa de la sostenibilidad del sistema propuesto. El análisis combinado revela que, si bien éste presenta el potencial de generar importantes beneficios ambientales (sujeto a supuestos metodológicos), esto ocurre a costa del beneficio económico cuando el análisis se hace desde el punto de vista municipal. A continuación, se ha aplicado el ACV a distintos sistemas de producción de biodiesel bajo un enfoque consecuencial, como la única forma de estimar el CUS indirecto. Existen diferentes metodologías para la realización de un ACV consecuencial y todas ellas requieren la aplicación de conceptos económicos. La primera consiste en aplicar la expansión del sistema para incluir las funciones adicionales desempeñadas por los coproductos, ya que los efectos indirectos surgen de las interacciones de éstos con otros ciclos de vida en el mercado internacional. Ello ha permitido comparar la producción de biodiesel de ACU frente a la importación de biodiesel de soja de Argentina. Se ha propuesto también un modelo de programación matemática basado en la capacidad nominal del sector del biodiesel en España. Su objetivo es determinar la combinación de materias primas óptima, desde el punto de vista económico, para cumplir con de la demanda proyectada para 2020 pero que cumpla a su vez con las exigencias ambientales de la RED. El modelo incorpora un módulo para realizar un ACV de forma simultánea, que permite estimar las emisiones asociadas a las distintas vías de obtención de materias primas. Se pueden calcular incluso las emisiones indirectas por CUS en la agricultura española. Finalmente, se ha aplicado un modelo de equilibrio general para el análisis de las consecuencias ambientales globales (en términos de emisiones de GEI y CUS) de un aumento en la demanda de biodiesel en la UE según la RED, en combinación con las recientes medidas arancelarias sobre las importaciones de determinados países. Todo ello ha permitido calcular factores de emisión para diferentes alternativas de producción de biodiesel destinado al mercado español, no sólo en relación al calentamiento global sino también a otras categorías de impacto que pueden ser igualmente críticas. Además, se han identificado ventajas e inconvenientes de las metodologías aplicadas, dependiendo del objetivo y el alcance de estudio; lo ideal es aplicarlas de forma complementaria para una mayor comprensión del fenómeno global de la bioenergía, contribuyendo a una mayor solidez en los resultados de GEI. Reducir la incertidumbre en las estimaciones de CUS es fundamental para asegurar la a
[CAT] La demanda de biocombustibles ha augmentat progressivament els darrers anys, fomentada per polítiques públiques. En la Unió Europea, la Directiva 2009/28/EC (RED) estableix un objectiu del 10% per a l'ús d'energies renovables en el sector del transport en 2020, amb l'objectiu de reduir els gasos d'efecte hivernacle (GEH). Davant l'evidència del canvi en l'ús del sòl (CUS) a escala global a conseqüència de l'auge dels biocombustibles, s'han incorporat consideracions ambientals per promoure únicament aquells biocarburants que causen un estalvi substancial de GEH. L'objectiu de la present tesi ha estat analitzar els efectes ambientals de la introducció de biodièsel en el context espanyol, mitjançant l'aplicació de diferents metodologies sota una perspectiva del cicle de vida, amb la finalitat d'abordar qüestions tan controvertides com el CUS indirecte. En primer lloc, s'han avaluat els beneficis ambientals i econòmics derivats d'un procés integrat de tractament de residus on es produeix biodièsel a partir d'oli de cuina usat (OCU). L'avaluació ambiental s'ha realitzat mitjançant la metodologia d'Anàlisi de Cicle de Vida (ACV), mentre que l'avaluació financera s'ha dut a terme mitjançant el càlcul del Cost del Cicle de Vida. Ambdues metodologies comparteixen el mateix enfocament holístic i són essencials per a una comprensió més completa de la sostenibilitat del sistema proposat. L'anàlisi combinada revela que, si bé aquest presenta el potencial de generar importants beneficis ambientals (subjecte a supòsits metodològics), això ocorre a costa del benefici econòmic quan l'anàlisi es fa des del punt de vista municipal. A continuació, s'ha aplicat l'ACV a diferents sistemes de producció de biodièsel sota un enfocament conseqüencial, com l'única forma d'estimar el CUS indirecte. Existeixen diferents metodologies per a la realització d'un ACV conseqüencial i totes elles requereixen l'aplicació de conceptes econòmics. La primera consisteix a aplicar l'expansió del sistema per incloure les funcions addicionals exercides pels coproductes, ja que els efectes indirectes sorgeixen de les interaccions d'aquests amb altres cicles de vida al mercat internacional. Això ha permès comparar la producció de biodièsel d'OCU amb la importació de biodièsel de soia de l'Argentina. S'ha proposat també un model de programació matemàtica basat en la capacitat nominal del sector del biodièsel a Espanya. El seu objectiu és determinar la combinació òptima de matèries primeres, des del punt de vista econòmic, per complir amb de la demanda projectada per 2020 però que complisca al seu torn amb les exigències ambientals de la RED. El model incorpora un mòdul per realitzar un ACV de forma simultània, el qual permet estimar les emissions associades a les diferents vies d'obtenció de matèries primeres. Es poden calcular fins i tot les emissions indirectes per CUS en l'agricultura espanyola. Finalment, s'ha aplicat un model d'equilibri general per a l'anàlisi de les conseqüències ambientals globals (en termes d'emissions de GEH i CUS) d'un augment en la demanda de biodièsel en la UE segons la RED, en combinació amb les mesures aranzelàries recents sobre les importacions des de determinats països. Tot això ha permès calcular factors d'emissió per a diferents alternatives de producció de biodièsel destinat al mercat espanyol, no només en relació a l'escalfament global sinó també a altres categories d'impacte que poden ser igualment crítiques. A més, s'han identificat avantatges i inconvenients de les metodologies aplicades, depenent de l'objectiu i l'abast d'estudi; l'ideal és aplicar-les de forma complementària per a una major comprensió del fenomen global de la bioenergia, per contribuir a una major solidesa en els resultats de GEH. Reduir la incertesa en les estimacions de CUS és fonamental per assegurar l'aplicabilitat de les polítiques de biocombustibles en el futur.
Escobar Lanzuela, N. (2015). Contribution to the environmental impact assessment of biodiesel in the context of Spain [Tesis doctoral]. Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/52027
TESIS

Climate variability and change as well as sea level rise poses significant challenges to livelihoods, water and food security in small island developing states (SIDSs) including the Zanzibar Islands. Thus, without planned strategic adaptation, the future projected changes in climate and sea level will intensify the vulnerability of these sensitive areas. This thesis is based on research conducted in two sites located in the north eastern parts of each island, namely Kiuyu Mbuyuni, Pemba Island and Matemwe, Unguja Island. The research focused firstly on assessing the vulnerability of these two coastal communities to climate variability and change and other stressors. This included investigation of (1) the perceptions of fishers, farmers and seaweed farmers regarding climate stressors and shocks and associated risks and impacts, (2) existing and possible future water and food security issues, and (3) household's access to important livelihood assets. This was followed by an exploration of the coping and adaptive responses of farmers, fishers and seaweed farmers to perceived shocks and stresses and some of the barriers to these responses. Lastly, an analysis of the implications of the findings for achieving sustainable coastal livelihoods and a resilient coastal community was undertaken. The general picture that emerges is that local people along the east coasts of both islands are already vulnerable to a wide range of stressors. Although variability in rainfall is not a new phenomenon in these areas, increasing frequency of dry spells and coastal floods resulting from the influence of El Niño and La Niña events exert enormous pressures on local activities (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) which are the crux of the local economy. The main argument of the study is that the nature and characteristics of these activities are the main source of sensitivity amongst these communities and this creates high levels of vulnerability to climate shocks and trends. This vulnerability is evidenced by the reoccurrence of localised food shortages and the observed food and water insecurity. The study found that food insecurity is a result of unreliable rainfall, drought and seasonality changes. These interacted with other contextual factors such as poor soil, low purchasing power and the lack of livelihood diversification options. In addition to exposure to these almost unavoidable risks from climate variability, the vulnerability of the local communities along the east coasts is also influenced by the low level of capital stocks and limited access to the assets that are important for coping and adaptation. Despite this, some households managed to overcome barriers and adapt in various ways both within the three main livelihood sectors (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) as well as through adopting options outside these sectors resulting in diversification of the livelihood portfolio. However, the study found that most of the strategies opted for by fishers, farmers and seaweed farmers were mainly spontaneous. Few planned adaptation measures supported by state authorities were observed across the sites, with the exception of the provision of motorised boats which were specifically meant to increase physical assets amongst fishers, reduce pressure in the marine conservation areas and prevent overfishing in-shore. Furthermore, numerous strategies that people adopted were discontinued when further barriers were encountered. Interestingly, some of the barriers that prevented households adapting were the same ones that forced households that had responded to abandon their adaptations. To increase resilience amongst east coast communities to current and future predicted changes in climate and sea level, the study argues that traditional livelihood activities (fishing, farming and seaweed farming) need to be better supported, and access to a range of livelihood assets improved. This may be achieved through increased access to local sources of water and facilitation of rainwater harvesting, expanding the livelihood options available to people and increasing climate change awareness, and access to sources of credit.

Achieving food security under climate change is one of the biggest challenges of the 21st century. The challenge becomes even greater when contextualised within our current limited understanding of how the food system functions as a complex, adaptive socio-ecological system, with food security as one of its outcomes. Adding climate change into this already complex and uncertain mix creates a ‘wicked problem’ that must be solved through the development of adaptive food governance. The thesis has 4 key aims:

• 1. To move beyond an understanding of food security that is dependent solely on agricultural production, and therefore the reliance of future food security predictions on production data based on climate model inputs.
• 2. To ground the theoretical aspects of complex adaptive systems with empirical data from multi-level case studies.
• 3. To investigate the potential role of the private sector in food system futures.
• 4. To analyse food system dynamics across scales and levels.

In order to realise these aims, a complex adaptive system (CAS) approach within the GECAFS food system framework is employed to multilevel case studies in South Africa and Brazil. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of the private sector and how these vital actors, comprising a powerful component of the global food system, can be mobilized towards building adaptive capacity for a more resilient food system. Critically, the private sector is often left out of academic discussions on adaptation, which tend to focus more on civil society and governmental capacity to adapt. This thesis provides novel insight into how the power of the private sector can be harnessed to build adaptive capacity. The findings of the thesis showed that applying CAS to issues of governance has three important implications: The first is that in a complex system, it is critical to maintain diversity. This can translate into appreciating a multiplicity of viewpoints in order to reflect a range of decision-making options. This finding makes the case for closer synergy between the public and private sectors around areas like product development and distribution that includes an emphasis on enhancing food security under climate change. In the developing country context, the inclusion of smallholders and local entrepreneurs is also vital for building adaptive capacity. In this sense, it is possible for business to help achieve development goals by developing the capacity of those most vulnerable to socio-economic and environmental shocks. Secondly, adapting to climate change and other environmental and economic pressures will require a shift in mind-set that embraces the uncertainty of the future: ‘managing for uncertainty rather than against it’. This entails a shift in governance mindset away from linear thinking to a decision-making paradigm that is more flexible to deal with unexpected shocks. The third implication for governance is the need to understand the complex interplay of multiple interlinking processes and drivers that function across many levels and sometimes have exponential positive feedbacks in the food system. Adaptive governance is an iterative process, but as more is learnt and information is retained in the system, the ideal is that the beneficial processes that lower inequality and increase food security will start to be reinforced over those that entrench the current inequality in the food system.

Humans make decisions within ecosystems to enhance their well-being, but choices can lead to unintended consequences. The ecosystem services (ES) approach supports decision-making that considers all environmental goods and services. Many challenges remain in the implementation of the ES approach like how specific ES vary through space and time. We address this research problem using the Tualatin and Yamhill river basins in northwestern Oregon as a study area. Freshwater ES are quantified and mapped with the spatially-explicit ES modeling tool, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST). In chapter II, we develop a simple urban land cover change modeling approach with selected stakeholder input. The products of this analysis are used in part to answer the question of how the freshwater ES of water yield, nutrient retention, and sediment retention will change in the future, and how their distribution potentially will change? In chapter III, these ES are modeled in InVEST using the land cover scenarios and three downscaled global climate models. The base period is 1981 to 2010 and the future period is 2036 to 2065. The models are calibrated to empirical estimates, and display different sensitivities to inputs. Water yield increases with higher rainfall but decreases with the highest temperature scenario. Nutrient export and retention estimates are positively correlated. In the Tualatin basin, more urban lands generally lead to increases in nutrient exports and retention. The effect is reversed in the Yamhill basin from much larger agricultural exports. Sediment exports and retention increase with higher winter rainfall but are negatively spatially correlated due to topographic effects. Simulation of a landscape scale installation of riparian buffers leads to decreases in exports and increases in retention. The distribution of the provision of freshwater ES remains unchanged throughout the scenarios. With few parameters in each InVEST model, all display a high degree of sensitivity. Parameterization is subject to high uncertainty even with calibrated values. We discuss the assumptions and limitations of InVEST's freshwater models. The spatially explicit nature of InVEST is its main advantage. This work coupled with other analyses in the study area can facilitate the identification of tradeoffs amongst ES leading to better ecosystem management.

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Bachelors
Business Administration
Business Economics

This study investigates the extent to which South African short-term insurance companies manage climate change risk, as evidenced in their annual and sustainability reporting. The study context takes into account the fact that the world’s climate has been changing at a more accelerated rate since the early 1970s, causing disasters that have negatively affected world economies in the last ten years. Insurers, due to their huge financial resource base, long history of spurring innovation around risk and encouraging loss-reducing behaviour as well as high levels of vulnerability, have been identified as one industry that could lead societies in finding solutions to climate change risk. A key element of such a corporate resolve involves taking a leadership position which makes business sense for insurers. As such, this research analyses how innovative solutions to change-related problems could result in reduced exposure to climate change in line with corporate triple bottom line objectives. Based on a purposive sampling of short-term insurance companies operating in the South African market during the 2007 financial year, the study uses the companies’ annual and sustainability reports in order to critically assess evidence of climate change-related performance. The assessment is undertaken against the best practice indicators of climate change risk management, as defined by Ceres – a global researcher on climate change management in the business context. The data analysis is largely qualitative, consisting of a narrative presentation of the results and a conceptual application of the results to the triple bottom line which forms the theoretical framework of this study. The study finds that the South African short-term insurers were generally not living up to the climate change management ideals, in comparison to their multinational counterparts. For the South African short-term insurers, corporate strategic product innovation and planning was insignificant. Also negligible was board involvement, as well as CEO involvement, though in at least one case of the 4 local short-term insurance, there was evidence of extensive CEO involvement in climate change risk management. On the whole, these findings represent a lapse in corporate governance inasmuch as climate change risk management is concerned. Local short-term insurers generally performed well in the area of public disclosure, with their scores ranging from insignificant to extensive. In contrast, multinational short-term insurers’ performance with regard to climate change risk intervention ranged from insignificant tointegrated, across the five governance areas of board oversight, management execution, public disclosure, emissions accounting and strategic planning. As such, the study broadly recommends that short-term insurers in South Africa should make climate change part of their overall risk management strategies in order for them to remain competitive in an environment of increased climate change-related risk. More specifically, the research project recommends that the local insurers should proactively lead climate change mitigation measures through, for instance, investing in clean energy projects and incentivising their clients’ participation in the carbon market to prepare themselves for possible regulatory restrictions after the Copenhagen climate change conference planned for December 2009. This study also challenges insurers to help communities and as well as other businesses in their value chain to reduce their negative impacts on the world’s climate and to be more resilient against disasters which may arise from the high levels of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere. Further, it recommends that insurers should create internal board and executive level climate change-related structures, as these will facilitate the integration of the proposed initiatives into their overall sustainability strategies. Above all, the study recommends that insurers should enhance the reporting of their climate change-related risk, opportunities and initiatives to improve their integrity.

Thesis (MSc)--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Climate has shown some remarkable changes over the past century, especially at the polar and sub-polar regions. Southern Ocean Islands provide good models for studies related to climate change effects, since effects may be evident in the short term and may also be clearer. Marion Island is an example of such a system with a harsh abiotic environment, and low species richness often vulnerable to change. Climate change is predicted, and also reported, to have biological consequences on plant communities, affecting the phenology, morphology, and the interaction between individuals and species. This study examines the association between the keystone plant species, Azorella selago Hook. (Apiaceace), and its dominant epiphyte Agrostis magellanica Lam. (Poaceae). Two complimentary approaches were used, one observational and the other experimental. The main objective for the observational study was to quantify bioticallyrelevant microclimate temperature, as well as the morphology, epiphyte load and phenology of A. selago at three different altitude sites on Marion Island. This provided information on baseline variation for understanding specific variability in plant response to the experimental part of this study, against which future patterns arising from biological monitoring can be compared. Studying plants at different altitudes provides a possible analogue for temperature-related climate change consequences for the ecology of A. selago, and its interaction with A. magellanica. The microclimate temperature associated with A. selago differed between the three sites examined. This difference was related to local topographic conditions and altitude differences. Cushion size differed distinctively between the three altitude sites, with this difference related to environmental heterogeneity such as differences in age and substrate structure. Azorella selago annual growth rate was estimated through stem length and the number of leaves on both exposed and shaded stems. Within-site variability, as well as epiphyte cover were found to be the contributing factors on A. selago annual growth rate. This highlights the importance of site-specificity when estimating growth rate within and between different altitude sites. Leaf characteristics differed between the sites, with this attributed to local habitat conditions, such as topography, as well as epiphyte cover. As expected, the difference in leaf size between exposed and shaded leaves demonstrated a larger specific leaf area on leaves shaded by A. magellanica. Agrostis magellanica abundance and density were altitudinally related, with A. selago demonstrating facilitation effects on A. magellanica. The trend shown in this study suggests that in spite of general facilitative effect of A. selago on A. magellanica towards higher altitudes, the abiotic environmental threshold for A. magellanica occurs at lower altitudes than it does for A. selago. Phenological differences were also apparent between the three sites. The objectives of the experimental part of this study were to quantify the effect of the dominant epiphyte, A. magellanica on biotically-relevant microclimatic temperatures, as well as on the phenology and physical condition of A. selago. Different treatments were applied to cushions at the three altitude sites to examine the shading effect of epiphytic A. magellanica on cushion plants, as well as the effect of treatment-related disturbance. Azorella selago microclimate temperature showed no significant difference between treatments, suggesting that on average epiphytic A. magellanica cover has no effect on cushion microclimate temperature. The percentage of flower budding and flowering of A. selago was negatively related to epiphyte cover. Cushion vitality was also responsive to epiphyte cover, with higher vitality scores on low grass covered cushions than on high grass cushions. This shows that A. magellanica competes with A. selago, while A. selago facilitates A. magellanica. Heavy epiphyte numbers impose negative effects on A. selago vegetative and reproductive performance, as well as cushion vitality. Therefore, the results of this research show that the vegetative and reproductive performance of A. selago and cushion vitality are likely to be negatively affected under ongoing climate change on Marion Island if this brings about heavier epiphyte loads on this keystone cushion plant species.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die afgelope eeu het die klimaat in die Antarktiese en sub-Antarktiese gebiede merkwaardige verandering getoon. Die Suidelike See Eilande dien as goeie modelle vir studies verwant aan die gevolge van klimaatsverandering, aangesien die kort termyn effekte in die gebiede duideliker mag wees in die toekoms. Marion Eiland is ‘n voorbeeld van so ‘n sisteem, met ‘n ruwe abiotiese omgewing en lae spesies rykheid, wat vatbaar is vir verandering. Daar word voorspel, en is reeds bevind dat klimaatsverandering biologiese gevolge op plant gemeenskappe het, in terme van morfologie, fenologie en die interaksie tussen individue en spesies. Hierdie studie ondersoek die assosiasie tussen die hoeksteen plant spesie, Azorella selago (Apiaceace), en sy dominante epifietiese gras, Agrostis magellanica Lam. (Poaceae). Die studie is op twee komplimentêre maniere benader, naamlik deur waarneming en eksperiment. Die hoof doel van die studie was om die biotiese belang van mikroklimaat temperatuur te kwantifiseer, en die hoeveelheid epifiete, die morfologie en die fenologie van A. selago te bepaal by drie verskillende hoogtes op Marion Eiland. Laasgenoemde het inligting verskaf oor die variasie in die reaksie van plante tot die eksperimentele aspek van die studie, waarteen patrone vanaf toekomstige biologiese beheer vergelyk kon word. Deur plante te bestudeer by verskillende hoogtes bo seespieël word ‘n moontlike analoog vir die gevolge van temperatuur-verwante klimaatverandering in terme van die ekologie van A. selago, en laasgenoemde se interaksie met A. magellanica verskaf. Die mikroklimaat temperatuur geassosieer met A. selago verskil tussen dié drie liggings. Die versil was verwant aan die plaaslike topografiese toestande en die verskillende hoogtes bo seespieël. Die grootte van die kussingplante het duidelik versil tussen die drie liggings, met die verskille verwant aan die omgewing se heterogeneïteit, byvoorbeeld die verskille in ouderdom en substraat struktuur. Azorella selago se jaarlikse groeitempo was bepaal deur die stingel lengte en die aantal blare, op beide die wat oorskadu is deur die gras, en die was nie oorskadu is nie. Daar is gevind dat die faktore wat bygedra het tot die jaarlikse groeitempo van A. selago, varieër binne die verskillende liggings, en bedekking deur epifiete. Dit beklemtoon die belang van spesifisiteit van ligging wanneer groeitempo in en tussen die liggings van verskillende hoogtes bepaal word. Die blaar eienskappe het verskil tussen verskillende liggings, as gevolg van plaaslike habitat toestande, soos topografie en bedekking deur epifiete. Soos verwag, het die blare wat oorskadu was deur A. magellanica ‘n groter spesifieke blaar area getoon as blare wat blootgestel was. Die hoeveelheid en digtheid van Agrosits magellanica was verwant aan hoogte bo seespieël, met A. selago wat fasiliterende effekte toon op A. magellanica. Die tendens waargeneem in hierdie studie is dat ten spyte van die algemene fasiliterende effek van A. selago op A. magellanica, die abiotiese omgewingsdrempel op ‘n laer hoogte is vir A. magellanica as vir A. selago. Fenologiese verskille was ook duidelik tussen die drie liggings. Die doel van die eksperimentele deel van die studie was om die effek van die dominante epifiet, A. magellanica, te bepaal op bioties relevante mikroklimaat temperature, asook op die fenologie en fiesiese toestand van A. selago. Verskeie behandelings is aangewend op die kussingplante by die drie liggings om die effek van skaduwee van die epifietiese A. magellanica op die plante te bepaal, asook die effek van versteurings versoorsaak deur die behandelings. Azorella selago se mikroklimaat temperatuur het geen betekenisvolle verskille tussen behandelings getoon nie, wat voorstel dat epifitiese A. magellanica oor die algemeen geen effek op die kussingplante se mikroklimaat temperatuur het nie. Daar was ‘n negatiewe verwantskap tussen die hoeveelheid epifiete op A. selago en die persentasie blomme en blomknoppe op die kussingplante. Die plante se vitaliteit was ook afhanklik van epifiet bedekking, met ‘n hoër vitaliteit telling vir kussingplante bedek met lae gras as die bedek met hoë gras. Dit toon dat A. magellanica met A. selago wedywer, terwyl A. selago vir A. magellanica fasiliteer. Hoë epifiet getalle het negatiewe effekte op A. selago se vegetatiewe en reproproduktiewe nakoming, asook die kussingplante se vitaliteit. Die resultate van hierdie studie toon dus dat die vegetatiewe en reproduktiewe nakoming van A. selago en kussingplant vitaliteit heel moontlik negatief geaffekteer sal word indien klimaatsverandering op Marion Eiland hoër epifiet getalle op die sleutel kussingplant spesie tot gevolg sal hê.

The global threat of climate change is one of the most crucial environmental issues facing the world in modern times. In response to this threat, international governments have drafted the Kyoto Protocol which included the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). The CDM is a scheme which invited developing countries, like South Africa, to become involved in climate change mitigation projects. While South Africa has been identified as an attractive host country for CDM projects, research has revealed that it lags behind other developing countries in this regard. This study provides a theoretical background to the CDM and grounds the subject within the field of Environmental Economics. Following a literature review of factors that could influence the involvement of a municipality in CDM projects, this thesis undertook a case study of the barriers and drivers to CDM implementation within the Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (NMBM). Use was made of semi-structured interviews, where a questionnaire was used to guide the researcher’s interview process. Five NMBM officers, who were likely to have been involved with CDM project implementation, were interviewed. Data collected was analyzed using a coding technique and was compared and contrasted to the literature in a process of explanation building. It was possible to elicit 14 factors that acted as CDM-barriers; seven that acted as CDM-drivers; and 10 that were required to change within the NMBM to encourage greater CDM involvement. Of the barriers, lack of awareness, poor political will and lack of funding emerged as the most inhibiting. Of the CDM-drivers, the potential financial benefits; ownership of infrastructure capable of producing carbon assets; and technology transfer emerged as the factors most likely to promote CDM involvement. With regards the factors that require change, it emerged that a positive response would result from a proactive stance by National Government on the CDM; the use of Public-Private-Partnerships to facilitate CDM projects; and improved communication and capacity building within the NMBM and the Nelson Mandela Bay business community. The main recommendation offered to the NMBM was for it to draft a Sustainable Development Policy as well as a formal sustainable development strategy to drive a coherent and consolidated approach to the Municipality’s involvement with CDM projects. Further, it was proposed that the NMBM should, lobby National Government for it to promulgate enabling legislation and a framework which would encourage CDM investment in South Africa; and engage with local business to promote the active involvement of the Nelson Mandela Bay with the implementation of CDM projects. Keywords: Global Warming, Kyoto Protocol, Clean Development Mechanism, Sustainable Development, Environmental Economics, Public Sector, Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality.

Ng King Sau.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2005.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 138-147).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Abstract --- p.iii
論文摘要 --- p.iv
Acknowledgements --- p.v-vi
Chapter Chapter 1 --- Introduction
Chapter 1.1 --- Research Background --- p.1-3
Chapter 1.2 --- Research Questions --- p.3-5
Chapter 1.3 --- Research Significance --- p.5-7
Chapter 1.4 --- Overview of the Research --- p.7-9
Chapter Chapter 2 --- Literature Review
Chapter 2.1 --- Definition of Civil Society --- p.10-16
Chapter 2.2 --- The Idea of Global Civil Society --- p.16-19
Chapter 2.3 --- Development of Chinese Civil Society --- p.19-23
Chapter 2.4 --- Development of Global Civil Society in China --- p.23-26
Chapter Chapter 3 --- Analytical Framework and Methodology
Chapter 3.1 --- Structural Level of Analysis --- p.21-29
Chapter 3.2 --- Organizational Level of Analysis --- p.29-33
Chapter 3.3 --- Individual Level of Analysis --- p.33-34
Chapter 3.4 --- Definition of Culture --- p.34-40
Chapter 3.5 --- Methodology --- p.40-45
Chapter Chapter 4 --- Global Civil Society: The case of Greenpeace
Chapter 4.1. --- A History of Greenpeace --- p.46-47
Chapter 4.2. --- The Mission of Greenpeace --- p.47
Chapter 4.3 --- The Resources of Greenpeace --- p.48-49
Chapter 4.4. --- Organizational Structure of Greenpeace: a M-form organization --- p.49-52
Chapter 4.5. --- Global Strategy of Greenpeace --- p.52-56
Chapter 4.6 --- Background of Establishment of China Office --- p.56-57
Chapter 4.7 --- Greenpeace China I: An Introduction to the Hong Kong Unit --- p.57-58
Chapter 4.8 --- Greenpeace China II: An Introduction to the Beijing Unit --- p.58-60
Chapter 4.9 --- Greenpeace China III: An Introduction to the Guangzhou Unit --- p.60-62
Chapter 4.10 --- Conclusion --- p.62-63
Chapter Chapter 5 --- Guangzhou Unit: Process and Mechanisms of Cultural Diffusion
Chapter 5.1 --- Structural Level of Analysis: An Introduction of Guangzhou --- p.64-69
Chapter 5.2 --- Organizational Level of Analysis: Cooperation with local civil society and local authorities --- p.69-82
Chapter 5.3 --- Individual Level of Analysis: Social Remittance Theory and Opinion Leader --- p.82-83
Chapter 5.4 --- Conclusion --- p.83-84
Chapter Chapter 6 --- Before Change: Development of Traditional Chinese Civic Culture
Chapter 6.1 --- Chinese Civility: From Traditional to Contemporary China --- p.85-88
Chapter 6.2 --- Compare Chinese Civility to Western Civility --- p.88-92
Chapter 6.3 --- Conclusion --- p.92-93
Chapter Chapter 7 --- After Change: Success and Constraints on Cultural Change
Chapter 7.1 --- Diffusion of the Consciousness of Civil Rights --- p.94-100
Chapter 7.2 --- Diffusion of the Consciousness of Social Rights --- p.100-102
Chapter 7.3 --- Diffusion of the Consciousness of Political Participation --- p.102-104
Chapter 7.4 --- Diffusion of the Consciousness of Community Participation --- p.104-112
Chapter 7.5 --- Constraints --- p.112-117
Chapter 7.6 --- Conclusion --- p.117-120
Chapter Chapter 8 --- Conclusion
Chapter 8.1 --- Globalness and Cultural Change --- p.121-122
Chapter 8.2 --- Roles Played by Local Civil Society --- p.122-123
Chapter 8.3 --- Culturla Change led by Greenpeace --- p.124-128
Chapter 8.4 --- Reflections and Implications --- p.128-129
Appendix I --- p.130-131
Appendix II --- p.132-135
Appendix III --- p.136
Appendix IV --- p.137
Bibliography --- p.138-147

Environmental migration is an idea that has attracted significant attention from policy-makers, activists, the media and academic researchers since the 1970s. Since its inception, however, questions have remained over how best to explore environment-mobility dynamics. Much progress has been made in this area, particularly in unpacking the political ecological context in which mobility patterns emerge, yet researchers are still faced with limited conceptual frameworks from which to develop context-specific explanations of the influence of environmental change on mobility patterns. Existing conceptualizations tend to be biased towards structural explanations. This thesis seeks to improve conceptual clarity by applying new theoretical approaches to understanding the influence of environmental change on mobility. The study draws on debates within general migration theory as a springboard for exploring the theoretical challenges associated with explaining mobility. These theoretical discussions form the basis for identifying the influence of environmental changes on existing mobility patterns. The methodological approach in this study employs social practices theory to examine how chains of action are the result of both individual actors and the effect of social structures organized around shared practical understandings. The study used a case study design and employed qualitative methods such as interviews, group discussions, participant observation and document analysis to analyse the linkages between multi-scale contexts of action. The fieldwork was conducted in three rural villages in Albay province, the Philippines. Albay was selected because it experiences a range of different environmental shocks and stressors and is a province with net out-migration, characterized by seasonal and circular mobility patterns. While mobility could certainly be conceptualised as a 'rational' response, for research participants, working for periods of time in urban areas also represented a familiar practice-part of the rhythm of daily life. Mobility for Albayanos was viewed as an opportunity to transform oneself and improve livelihood security, despite the often disappointing experiences of working elsewhere. Decisions associated with mobility were suffused with a range of emotions. The decision to move was not so much a process of quantifying what was better or worse (to stay or go), but rather what fitted with the values, emotions and ideas of self in particulars moment and over the experience of mobility. These findings challenge the dominant framing of environmental migrants as rational actors responding to particular push and pull factors. The study concludes that practice-based approaches are a valuable way to explore the numerous dimensions of the mobility experience. It draws on this approach to bridge the structure-agency divide evident in many contemporary conceptualizations of environmental migration. One of the distinguishing features of a practice theory approach is the consideration not only of reflexivity and conscious thought for understanding agency, but also shared and routinized dimensions. This approach shifts the focus away from how individuals rationalize their migration decision, to how various practices solidify and routinize practices relating to mobility. The natural environment forms part of this context, but its influence cannot be understood without explicit and critical consideration of interconnected practices involved in mobility patterns.

A research report submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science by Coursework and Research Report. Johannesburg 2014.
Climate change is an issue of global significance resulting in trans-boundary environmental and socio-economic impacts. South Africa is involved in the international efforts to address climate change, has accepted the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report and developed a National Climate Change Response Policy, listing the impacts of climate change on the sustainable development in South Africa. The main causes of climate change are Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), which have been emitted from different development activities over temporal and spatial scales. In order to reduce the emissions of GHGs and protect proposed development projects from climate change impacts, climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be incorporated into Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). This research aimed to describe climate change incorporation into the EIA legal regime and practice in South Africa, based on climate change impacts on sustainable development and the role of EIA in considering climate change. The methodology involved reviewing EIA regulations and related legislation, EIA case studies from Gauteng province conducted between 2010 and 2013, key informant interviews with Environmental Assessment Practitioners (EAPs), and discussion on the linkedin group of the International Association for Impact Assessment of South Africa (IAIAsa). The study concluded that climate change is not explicitly incorporated into the EIA regime, but it is implied in the EIA regulations and related legislation. Largely as a result of the lack of climate change incorporation in the EIA legal regime, climate change is not adequately considered in the EIA practice. In order to support the contribution of EIA to sustainable development in South Africa, It is recommended that climate change should be incorporated into EIA regulations in the next amendment of NEMA. This can be done through including listed activities that require climate change incorporation into the EIA based on type of an activity and/or specific receiving environments. It is also suggested that EIA guidelines for climate change consideration be developed. Further recommendations include supporting the role that Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and Environmental Management Framework (EMF) play, in conjunction with the EIA, in considering climate change; increasing the availability of accurate, local climate change data and modelling technology; developing staff capacity and awareness about climate change, and building EAP’s ability to incorporate climate change in the EIA through the support of government related authorities and associations such as IAIAsa and EAPSA. Key words: climate change, EIA, mitigation, adaptation, EIA legal regime, EIA practice.

This paper focuses on the possible input of African Ethics into the global warming and climate change discourse in light of the economic dilemma of sustainability. The paper argues that African Ethics through its concept of Ubuntu can make a worthy contribution to the issues surrounding sustainable development, ecological debt and international climate change talks. In a world where the lives of the affluent nations impact drastically on our climate and necessitate calamitous climate disasters and cause the poor to suffer, why is it that the international community has not reached any noteworthy climate change solutions? The same poor countries are also burdened by payment of huge debts and poor climate change adaptation and development. Can African ethics make some contribution to these challenging issues brought by global warming and climate change? The dissertation seeks to tackle these questions by employing a qualitative methodology informed by Gadamer’s philosophical hermeneutics and using the research design of Boff’s ecological holism and Murove’s relational paradigm. However, in order for African ethics to make such a viable contribution the paper seeks to reveal the philosophical and economic substrata sustaining the incessant degradation of the ecology. This opens us the entry point for African ethics through Ubuntu to engage with other voices in the search for solutions to the global warming and climate change crises.
Thesis (M.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2013.

Climate change is as much an economic phenomenon as an environmental or moral one. Therefore, discussion of climate change mitigation needs to include the finance sector. Banks, in particular, are economic gatekeepers. Their day-to-day activities of financing, lending, investing, trading and advising bring them into frequent and direct contact with large corporations that are responsible for intensive global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well as the development of low-carbon technologies. This has two consequences, both of which make banks key players in the transition to a low-carbon economy. First, nearly all economic decisions made by banks will have indirect environmental impacts - for better or worse. Second, banks are optimally placed to enrol other corporate actors in GHG mitigation efforts. However, little research exists concerning whether, to what extent, or why banks would seek to facilitate climate change mitigation, especially when not compelled to do so. What makes this subject particularly important is that despite regulatory uncertainty on climate change at international and national levels, early-moving private sector banks are making voluntary climate-related changes to their business practices. Yet it remains unclear why they are doing so, and whether or how such 'enlightened' practices might become mainstreamed in the industry as a whole. The purpose of this dissertation is twofold. First, it answers the question of why early-moving private sector banks are adopting climate-related practices. It does so taking account of but going beyond the relevant literature on 'why companies go green', which is conceptualised through intra-organisational (micro), inter-organisational (meso) and socio-cultural (macro) theoretical lenses. In so doing, it employs a multiple case design and analyses interview data from seven early-moving or 'leading' banks to provide insights about internal and external influences on corporate environmental behaviour. Second, this dissertation draws implications from the empirical findings for: (a) the mainstreaming of 'enlightened' banking practices in the industry as a whole; and (b) effective climate finance policymaking. The findings in this dissertation demonstrate that the meso-level literature on the business case provides the most convincing explanation as to why early-moving banks are 'going green '. In so doing, a new taxonomy of corporate 'reputation' is proposed, which includes a new classification of 'client service reputation' with the established 'social reputation' as twin drivers of corporate greening. Equally as important, this dissertation demonstrates that ethical or 'corporate social responsibility' motivations do not drive corporate greening in the banking industry. Finally, this dissertation yields jurisdictionally-specific findings on how regulatory contexts shape corporate decision-making on climate change. In drawing implications from these findings, this dissertation shows that mainstreaming of purely voluntary 'leading' bank practices will probably occur over time incrementally, which will not assist the transition to a low-carbon economy fast or far enough. Therefore, this dissertation recommends that government regulatory intervention at the national/regional level is required, regardless of international agreement. Theories of 'new governance' and 'nudge economics' are used to suggest that indirect 'steering' regulation can expand clean energy markets while harnessing the business case imperative of banks to assist timely transition to a low-carbon global economy.

Rapid, human-forced climate change as a result of greenhouse gases is threatening the fabric of human civilisation itself. It is clear that we need to alter our development and poorer countries will need to develop while limiting their emissions, but it is not clear what sustainable development would entail. Climate change policy solutions have pivoted on carbon trading, under the auspices of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), but this too has failed to limit growth in carbon emissions. This report looks at the operations of the CDM in South Africa as a source of climate finance meant to facilitate sustainable development. Though South Africa has emphasised its commitment towards a low-carbon transition, in practice its national planners seek to preserve energy-intensive mineral and industrial sectors. This research draws on both primary and secondary documents as well as interviews with carbon professionals to conclude that CDM projects have played a limited role in South Africa, but has tended to reproduce the existing minerals and energy complex within the country.

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 379-409)
2 v. : ill. ; 30 cm.
Title page, contents and abstract only. The complete thesis in print form is available from the University Library.
Develops a framework for evaluating environmental impact assessment (EIA) and organisational change, and examines the influence of the EIA system on two government organisations within South Australia, Transport SA and ETSA . Finally analyses patterns of organisational change process in South Australia in comparision with experience in the United States.
Thesis (Ph.D.(Arts))--Adelaide University, Dept. of Geographical and Environmental Studies, 2001

Includes bibliographical references (leaves 379-409)
2 v. : ill. ; 30 cm.
Develops a framework for evaluating environmental impact assessment (EIA) and organisational change, and examines the influence of the EIA system on two government organisations within South Australia, Transport SA and ETSA . Finally analyses patterns of organisational change process in South Australia in comparision with experience in the United States.
Thesis (Ph.D.(Arts))--Adelaide University, Dept. of Geographical and Environmental Studies, 2001

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environment, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Engineering, 2016
Global climate change is among the major challenges the world is facing today, and can be attributed to enhanced concentrations of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere. Therefore, there is an urgent need to mitigate CO2 emissions, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) is amongst the possible options to reduce CO2 emissions. Against this background, this work investigated the synthesis and performance evaluation of Polyaspartamide (PAA) adsorbent for CO2 capture. In particular, the effect of the presence of water-soluble amines in the amine-grafted poly-succinimide (PSI) (referred to as Polyaspartamide (PAA) adsorbent), was investigated. Methyl Amine (MA) and Mono-Ethanol Amine (MEA) were employed as water-soluble amines and the effect of changes in their concentration on CO2 adsorption capacity was investigated as well. Water-soluble amines were incorporated to allow water solubility of the adsorbent paving the way for freeze-drying to improve the geometric structure (surface area, pore volume and pore size) of the adsorbent. Initially, the PSI was loaded with Ethylenediamine (EDA), forming PSI-EDA. The water-soluble amines were grafted to PSI-EDA, with the EDA added to improve the chemical surface of the adsorbent for CO2 capture. NMR and FTIR analyses were performed and confirmed the presence of MA and MEA amine groups in the PAA, thereby indicating the presence of the grafted amines on the backbone polymer. BET analysis was performed and reported the pore volume, pore size and surface area of the freeze-dried material. It was observed that the physical properties did not change significantly after the freeze-drying compared to literature where freeze-drying was not employed. An increase in adsorption capacity with an increase in MA and MEA concentrations in MA-PAA and MEA-PAA samples was observed. At low amine concentrations (20% amine and 80% EDA grafted), MEA-PAA was observed to exhibit higher adsorption capacity compared to the MA-PAA samples. At high amine (100% amine grafted) concentrations, MA-PAA samples displayed higher adsorption capacity. Three runs were performed on each sample and the results obtained were reproducible. The best adsorption capacity obtained was 44.5 g CO2/kg Ads. Further work was then performed to understand the effects of operating variables on CO2 adsorption as well as the interactive effect using the Response Surface Methodology approach. The experiments were done by use of CO2 adsorption equipment attached to an ABB gas analyzer. A central composite design of experiment method with a total of 20 experiments was employed to investigate three factors, namely, temperature, pressure and gas flow rate. Six regression models were drawn up and mean error values computed by use of Matlab, followed by response surfaces as well as contours, showing the influence of the operating variables on the adsorption capacity as well as interaction of the factors were then drawn up. The results obtained displayed that each of the factors investigated, temperature, pressure and gas flowrate had an incremental effect on the adsorption capacity of PAA, that is, as each factor was increased, the adsorption capacity increased up to a point where no more increase occurred. Adsorption was seen to increase for both an increase in gas flowrate and adsorption pressure to a maximum, thereafter it starts to decrease. A similar trend was observed for the interaction between temperature and pressure. However, the interaction between gas flowrate and temperature was such that, initially as the temperature and the gas flowrate increase, the adsorption capacity increases to a maximum, thereafter, the temperature seizes to have an effect on the adsorption capacity with a combined effect of decreasing temperature and increasing gas flowrate resulting in a further increase in adsorption capacity. It was confirmed that the operating variables as well as the flow regime have an effect on the CO2 adsorption capacity of the novel material. The highest adsorption capacity was obtained in the pressure range 0.5 bar to 1.7 bar coinciding with the temperature range of 10 oC to 45 oC. The interaction of gas flowrate and adsorption pressure was such that the highest adsorption capacity is in the range 0.8 bar to 1.5 bar which coincides with the gas flowrate range from 35 ml / min to 60 ml / min. In conclusion, the best adsorption capacity of 44.5 g / kg via the TGA and 70.4 g / kg via the CO2 adsorption equipment was obtained from 100 % MA grafted PSI.
GR2016

This thesis examines the relationship between commercial television and the more than-human world at a time when global ecological degradation challenges human well-being and the survival of other species. In the latter half of the twentieth century, television became the means by which most people got to know about society and publicly important events or issues. As billions of people the world over regularly view television the planet’s ice caps, rainforests, soil and oceans continue to be depleted. The research considers three questions aimed at a fuller understanding of the role of commercial television in Western society’s approach to global ecological degradation. What arises from being immersed in the more-than-human world? What arises from encountering the broadcast of commercial television? What arises from being immersed in the world of producing commercial television? The literature on global ecological degradation is substantial; the reasons why Western society is having difficulty coming to terms with the issue is less understood. While quantitative studies of the environmental content of television output have been undertaken, there has not been research into understanding the relationship between ecological awareness, television viewing and commercial television production. This research takes a hermeneutic phenomenological approach to the questions above. Firstly, the researcher immerses himself in the native woodlands and creeks of his immediate vicinity and gradually peels back layers of his perception. He then immerses himself in the world of watching contemporary commercial television and reflecting on his memories of Australian television since 1956. He juxtaposes the content of twenty-four hours of commercial television with personal recollections that reflect both the invisible and sedimented experiences of commercial television. Thirdly, the researcher observes a range of commercial television production environments (News, Advertising and Drama). In doing so he reflects on conversations with and between television executives, directors and scriptwriters who occupy this world. The main findings are that commercial television scriptwriters and personalities hold the most available tools for delivering an Australian-based ecological message through the plot and actions of characters, via a ‘green mise-en-scène’. However, there are severe constraints on this process because of the over-riding importance of ratings. Commercial television is a ratings hungry ‘third parent’ that has increasingly occupied the everydayness of Australian homes since 1956. The invisible technological nature of television has created a particular distance between the production of commercial television and how its mise-en-scène is perceived in domestic Australia, by a population that is technologically and procedurally removed from the more-than-human world.
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the world. Therefore, adaptation is increasingly seen as both a necessary and urgent response. However, little is known in terms of who are the most vulnerable and how adaptation will take place. This thesis examines vulnerability and resilience to climate variability and change among communities in the northern mountainous region (NMR) of Vietnam which have been identified as among the most vulnerable communities in Vietnam. The conceptual framework of this thesis draws on the linkage between vulnerability, adaptive capacity and resilience through which to gain a better understanding of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience to climate change in Vietnam's NMR. I adopt a participatory approach to vulnerability assessment using community villages as case studies and using drought, flood and cold weather snaps as study events. The case study of the human-natural system is located in the Ba Be district of Bac Kan province in the NMR of Vietnam. Data were collected in the field from July 2009 to February 2010. Primary data in the form of interviews, focus groups and community workshops, and field observations, as well as insights from local and regional decision-makers, resource managers, scientists and secondary data in the form of published and unpublished literature are used to investigate how communities manage and experience climate-related risks. This study found that households and communities in the NMR are vulnerable to multiple stresses. The main socio-econmic determinants of local vulnerability include poverty, inequality, environmental degradation, ethnicity and community. The interaction of climate risks and local vulnerability factors threatens to overwhelm their resilience. Therefore, this thesis argues that adaptation needs to be rooted in both reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience of communities. The central approach is to increase the adaptive capacity of communities to become resilient in the context of change and uncertainty. It will be more fruitful if policy interventions focus on improving adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities rather than providing specific solutions to uncertain future climates. Addressing fundamental livelihood and development problems and strengthening social, economic, and environmental resilience will make it easier for local communities to respond to climatic risks, whether they are droughts, floods or cold snaps. Another key conclusion is that communities that learn to live with change and uncertainty become resilient. The insights emphasize the importance of learning, information exchange, reflection, innovation, and anticipation, all of which are key elements of the adaptation process.

A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of Science, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science. Johannesburg, 5 June 2017.
Environmental reporting is largely voluntary for companies, unlike financial reporting which has well set standards for measurement, reporting, auditing and governing laws based on IFRS and GAAP. A driver such as a stock exchange is able to act as a “regulating body” that requires a minimum reporting standard for companies listed on the stock exchange. Stock exchanges have an ethical responsibility to encourage companies listed with them to be environmental stewards to provide investors with responsible investment opportunities. This study provides an understanding of the quality of environmental guidelines presented by international stock exchanges compared to key global environmental concerns. The aim of this dissertation was to assess and compare sustainability guidelines provided by selected stock exchanges, with specific focus on key global environmental concerns. The objectives were (1) to assess the existing environmental reporting requirements of 19 stock exchanges across all continents, (2) to determine how the JSE environmental reporting guidelines compared to those of other stock exchanges, (3) to compare 20 JSE listed companies’ environmental reports based on the presence and quality of data, (4) to compare what companies reported to what the JSE required and (5) to identify possible differences in reporting between the impact levels and industries of companies. A Sustainability Balanced Scorecard (SBSC) was developed by identifying seven key global environmental concerns (resources; biodiversity; water; energy; emissions, pollution and waste; products and services; and supply chain management) that were common themes from the MEA (2005) and UNEP Ecosystem Management policy (2010). A five tier scoring system specific to assessing reporting guidelines and another five tier scoring system specific to assessing company environmental reports were used. Nineteen stock exchange guidelines were assessed to represent both developing and developed countries and all regions (Africa, America, Australasia and Europe). Overall, the stock exchange guidelines addressed the key global environmental concerns rather poorly. There were no differences in the quality of guidelines for stock exchanges that recommended guidelines in developing or developed countries. There were no differences found in the guidelines of stock exchanges operating in different regions. There were differences in the focus on key global environmental concerns by the guidelines. The environmental information reported by twenty companies spanning three impact levels and seven industries was also assessed. The companies in the high and medium impact levels iv reported similarly and better than the companies in the low impact levels. There were differences found in the way companies reported according to the different industries as well as differences in the way companies addressed the key global environmental concerns. Even though the JSE’s developed guidelines did not account for resources and biodiversity, the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI) reporting guidelines that the JSE recommended to their listed companies covered these categories. Companies reported voluntarily on the categories because they may understand the importance of managing resources and biodiversity for the sustainability of their business. Stock exchanges are faced with a variety of companies at different impact levels representing different industries, making it difficult to provide a minimum set of environmental reporting guidelines. Stock exchanges should require companies to report on all key global environmental concerns identified in this study, but should not dictate how the companies report on them. Global environmental reporting standards may be better suited with a global sustainability body like the Global Sustainability Standards Board (GSSB) that is able to provide global standards for all companies. Companies need to change the way that they do business, the benefits of reporting on environmental performance outweigh the risks of not reporting and managing these impacts. Sustainability reporting and best practise today may be the compliance of the future. Stakeholders are increasingly expecting companies to contribute more to environmental sustainability. Companies are essential in building a resilient planet that will be able to feed a growing population that will increase from seven to nine billion people by 2050. Key words: Environmental Sustainability; Johannesburg Stock Exchange; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment; Sustainability Balanced Score Card Approach; United Nations Environment Programme Ecosystem Management Policy
GR2018

The primary aim of my research was to identify the impacts and adaptation options of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. The following objectives were identified: To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province , To assess the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province and To identify adaptation measures that reduces the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production in Limpopo province. A representative sample of 300 farmers aged 16- 65+ years (46 percent males and 54 percent females) participated in the study. The study involved Sekhukhune and Capricorn districts, with 56 percent farmers in Capricorn and 44 percent in Sekhukhune district. The following 11 local municipalities were visited: Elias Motsoaledi, Makhuduthamaga, Fetakgomo, Ephraim Mogale, Tubatse, Lepelle Nkumpi, Blouberg, Aganang, Polokwane, and Molemole. The Limpopo province is one of the poorest provinces in the country, characterized by high unemployment rate, poverty and lack of access to a range of resources that frustrate majority of people ability to secure their livelihoods. In this study the province's economic, biological and physical environment were highlighted. The study further covers the province, s farming enterprises, systems, categories, infrastructure as well as other constraints that maybe facing the emerging farmer in the province. It is assumed that the majority of farmers in both the Capricorn and Sekhukhune districts are using different coping and adaptation strategies in order to increase their crop yields. Literature studies show that climate variability and change adaptation strategies vary from area to area due to agro ecological zones and the harshness of the effects of climate variability and change. It has also been noted that climate change is fast pushing the poorest and most marginalized communities beyond their capacity to respond. This study draws on lessons learned, experiences, and other existing research on climate change impacts and adaptation across the globe. It sets out what is needed to enable people living in poverty to adapt to climate change, and a range of interventions that are available across climate - sensitive sectors. The study has provided a literature review of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. In fact, it has documented some of the likely impacts of climate change based on International, continental, regional, national and provincial agricultural sector. The study highlighted the impact of climate change also on various climate - sensitive sectors including understanding water resources, forestry, natural ecosystem human health, infrastructure and coastal zones. This research also confirmed that being a full time farmer, gender, information on climate change, information received through extension services and adaptation to climate change are some of the important determinants of agricultural production, food scarcity and unemployment. A worrying situation is reviewed globally in this study and it can be concluded that climate variability and change is affecting every sector in society and it needs urgent attention. Statistics was used to determine climate variability and change impact on agricultural production. Results indicate that farmers are aware that Limpopo province is getting warmer and drier with increased frequency of droughts, changes in the timing of rains, observed trends oftemperature and precipitation. The study also presented perceived adaptation strategies used by farmers in Limpopo province. Some of their perceived adaptation strategies included: (a) Soil management strategies, (b) Water management strategies and (c) Others like use of subsidies and use of insurance. Other important adaptation options being used by farmers were also discussed in this study including different adaptation measures against colds, heat, frost, abnormal wind, hail, lack of extension support, nematodes, insecticides, worms, temperature and rainfall. The results of this study are potentially valuable to the agricultural sector considering the threats that climate change poses across climate sensitive sectors.
Environmental Sciences
D. Phil. (Environmental Management)

Thesis (M.Phil. (Environmental Law and Management)) -- University of Limpopo, 2009
In recent years, a lot has been said about global warming and climate change. Governments and Institutions have been congregating more frequently all over the world. The subject of global warming and climate change is believed to be a ticking time bomb, which can have catastrophic effects on the existence of the human race and other living organisms. This led me to think and ponder about all our coastal towns in South Africa. What would happen if the melting of the glaciers continues and the sea levels rise by over two meters? This surely is a recipe for disaster and hence a look at the Western Cape Province was really necessary to find out on the province and the country‟s preparedness. Climate change has been scientifically proven to be occurring and is being aggravated by industrialisation1. With South Africa being the 19th Green House Gas (GHG) emitter in the world, the government should definitely take action by either mitigating or adapting to these effects.2 Rightly so, something is being done not only at national level, but at a regional and international level. A number of treaties, conventions and protocols to do with climate change and its related effects have been passed and ratified by most countries. The most notable international protocol is the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change‟s (UNFCCC) Kyoto protocol. At a regional level, New Partnership for Africa‟s Development (NEPAD) and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC), have come in support of environmental initiatives like the Atmospheric Pollution Information Network for Africa (APINA). The Western Cape Province, in line with most of these agreements and national strategies, have come up with their own polices in trying to mitigate and/or adapt to climate change.

The impact of climate change on the financial performance of companies is of concern to bank credit processes. The main objective of this research was to develop a South African contextualised credit process that incorporates environmental risk. The research methodology comprised of a mixed-method being content analysis – the qualitative portion and the Probability of Default prediction using a Merton Model and the Hoffmann and Busch (2008) carbon risk analysis model - the quantitative portion. A content analysis of the banks’ Annual Reports, Integrated Reports and Sustainability Reports showed that, while South African banks follow a qualitative approach to embedding environmental risk into their credit process, none of the four banks that formed part of the study divulged their quantitative approach to embedding environmental risk. The study used a proximity matrix method to examine the level of embedding. The second part of the study, which used prior studies as the benchmark, adopted the following: (1) a simulated carbon tax regime as a proxy for an environmental risk, and (2) the Hoffmann and Busch (2008) carbon risk analysis tool and the Merton Model (1974) as the bank credit process proxies. The second part of the study used a sample of 33 JSE-listed Carbon Disclosure Project reporting companies out of a population of 107. The carbon risk analysis showed that the companies in the materials and energy sector have a high carbon risk. However, the results from the Merton Model showed that the companies have enough profit to cushion the additional carbon tax liability, given the insignificant shift in probability of default between the three scenarios, where financial data had (1) no carbon tax, (2) was adjusted for a carbon tax with incentives, and (3) adjusted for carbon tax without incentives. Triangulation of the results from the content analysis, carbon risk analysis and the probability of default analysis confirms that South African banks do not fully integrate environmental risk across the credit value chain or process in the 2010 to 2017 period. However, the carbon risk analysis shows a heavy dependency on carbon sources for critical inputs into the South African companies’ production processes, which if not checked, will affect the credit portfolios of banks.
Finance, Risk Management and Banking
D. Phil (Management Studies)