Academic literature on the topic 'Geopolitics – asia, central'
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Journal articles on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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D.P. "Central Asia: The new geopolitics." Orbis 37, no. 3 (June 1993): 480–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0030-4387(93)90186-g.
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Shahid, Tanweer, and Adam Saud. "CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICS IN CENTRAL ASIA: IMPEDIMENTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR PAKISTAN." Pakistan Journal of Social Research 04, no. 02 (June 30, 2022): 717–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.52567/pjsr.v4i2.524.
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Central Asia and Pakistan embrace distant neighbourhood and cordial relations. However, affluent potential of their relationship remained untapped and almost stagnant. This soaring state undergoes a pull and push of geopolitical contest of great and rising powers - ‘the new great game’, in Central Asia. The United States, Russia, China, India and their antagonism share convergence and divergence of interests. This interplay casts their positive and negative impacts on the future relations of Pakistan with Central Asia. This qualitative research, based on inductive reasoning, analyses impediments and opportunities for Pakistan in the Central Asia vis-à-vis the power play therein. Being devoid of a common border with Central Asia, Pakistan can acquire energy security and geopolitical weight engaging Central Asia whereas the latter can access the world through Pakistan’s Gwadar port and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, unshackling off Russian dependency. Central Asia and Pakistan has potential to rejuvenate their relationships. Keywords: Geopolitics, Great game, Central Asia, Great powers, Foreign policy.
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Foxall, Andrew. "Borders, Boundaries, and Central Asia Geopolitics." Geopolitics 23, no. 3 (July 3, 2018): 743–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2018.1451845.
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Azizian, Rouben, and Elizabeth Van Wie Davis. "Terrorism, Geopolitics, and Multinational Security Cooperation in Central Asia." American Journal of Islam and Society 23, no. 3 (July 1, 2006): 149–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.35632/ajis.v23i3.1614.
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On 22-24 February 2006, the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies(APCSS) held this conference on the complex security environment ofCentral Asia as the region continues to struggle with the phenomena of terrorismand religious extremism, poverty and corruption, political instabilityand authoritarian governance, as well as great power (China, Russia, and theUnited States) suspicion and rivalry. These challenges are not uniquelyCentral Asian, but the region seems to be particularly vulnerable to them asits young nations are undergoing a significant political, social, and economictransformation. How the region copes with these issues will extend importantlessons to the world as a whole.This forum examined the trilemma posed for Central Asia and thebroader Asia-Pacific region. First, for the war on terror in the region to besuccessful, it must evolve into well-implemented stabilization and reconstructionefforts as well as dramatic improvements in governance andhuman rights. Second, no country on its own can alter the situation inCentral Asia, for such an effort requires cooperation between all of the majorpowers and stakeholders in the region (India, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey).The magnitude of the problem of terrorism, which affects most if not allcountries in the region, should preclude another variation of the Great Game.Finally, while the number of regional organizations and security forums inCentral Asia has been growing, the low degree of coordination among themtriggers counterproductive rivalries and plays into the hands of extremistelements. Since terror knows no borders, what happens in Central Asia significantlyimpacts developments elsewhere.Although the counterterrorist effort in Central Asia has successfullymarginalized the Taliban and al-Qaeda, the localization of the terrorist threatmeans that new autonomous extremist cells continue to emerge in CentralAsia. The sources of proliferation of radical Islam can be found in socioeconomicdeprivation, widespread corruption, and political ...
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Suhartini, Ayu, Dian Permata Pratiwi, Jorshy Amanda Sudarno, Paulus Anggiat Siregar, Shybill Natalia De Queljoe, and Syahrir Roni Geyasra. "EKSISTENSI JEPANG DAN TIONGKOK DALAM GEOPOLITIK ENERGI DI ASIA TENGAH." Jurnal Asia Pacific Studies 2, no. 1 (July 23, 2019): 116. http://dx.doi.org/10.33541/japs.v2i1.1068.
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Abstract
In addition to its existence stretching along Silk Road between Europe and East Asia which later made it theheart of Euroasia, the Central Asia region is also a region rich in energy resources, specifically oil and naturalgas. These two factors then brought the region of Central Asia to develop into the second largest oil and gasproducing region in the world, after the Middle East. This makes the Central Asian region as an arena as well asa battle theater for energy interests between western countries, Russia, China, Japan, South Asian countries andthe Middle East. Japan and China particulary, in the past decade began to show their interest and concentrationin this region. This can be seen through the establishment of the 2004 Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue and the2006 Official Development Assistance (ODA) by Japan. Do not want to fall behind, in 2013 through itsPresident, Xi Jinping, China building the cooperation with the Central Asia through the One Belt One Road(OBOR) initiative. The purpose of this paper is to explain how the existence of Japan and China and theirinfluence in the dynamics of geopolitical energy in the Central Asian region. To complete this paper, the authorused qualitative research methods. From this paper, it was found that the existence of Japan and China hadpositive impact on the dynamics of energy geopolitics in the Central Asia region.
Keywords: Geopolitical energy, oil, natural gas, Japan, China, Central Asia.
Abstrak
Selain keberadaannya yang terbentang di sepanjang Silk Road antara Eropa dan Asia Timur sehinggamenjadikannya jantung dari Euroasia, Asia Tengah juga merupakan wilayah yang kaya akan sumber daya energiterutama minyak dan gas alam serta penghasil terbesar kedua di dunia setelah Timur Tengah. Hal ini membuatkawasan Asia Tengah sebagai arena sekaligus teater pertempuran kepentingan energi antara negara-negara barat,Rusia, Tiongkok, Jepang, negara-negara Asia Selatan dan Timur Tengah. Jepang dan Tiongkok secara khususdalam dekade terakhir mulai menunjukan minat dan konsentrasinya pada kawasan ini. Terbukti melaluipembentukan Central Asia Plus Japan Dialogue tahun 2004 dan Official Development Assistance (ODA) tahun2006 oleh Jepang. Tidak ingin ketinggalan pada tahun 2013 melalui Presidennya, Xi Jinping, Tiongkokmembangun kerjasama melalui inisiatif One Belt One Road (OBOR). Adapun tujun dari tulisan ini adalah untukmenjelaskan bagaimana eksistensi dan pengaruh dari keberadaan Jepang dan Tiongkok dalam dinamikageopolitik energi di kawasan Asia Tengah. Dalam menyelesaikan tulisan ini, penulis menggunakan metodepenelitian kualitatif. Dari tulisan ini didapatkan bahwa keberadaan Jepang dan Tiongkok cukup memberikanpengaruh positif bagi dinamika geopolitik energi di kawasan Asia Tengah.
Kata Kunci: Geopolitik energi, minyak bumi, gas alam, Jepang, Tiongkok, Asia Tengah
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Solovyev, D. "Central Asia: geopolitics of water and energy." Энергетическая политика, no. 2 (2021): 84–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.46920/2409-5516_2021_2156_84.
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Zreik, Mohamad. "CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICS OF EURASIA AND THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE." Eurasian Research Journal 4, no. 1 (January 15, 2022): 7–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.53277/2519-2442-2022.1-01.
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In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping launched the Belt and Road Initiative. This modern initiative aims to revive the ancient Silk Road and connect China with many neighboring and distant countries and economic blocs. China invests mainly in infrastructure by developing a network of land and maritime roads, facilitating communication, trade and transportation. The various projects under this initiative will make China a leader in international trade and an attractive region for giant partners. This paper analyzes the Chinese presence in Eurasia after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative and the contemporary geopolitics of Eurasia in light of the great Chinese expansion. This study contributes to clarifying the China-Central Asia relationship and represents this relationship within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. This study is based on data issued by governmental institutions and international research centers, which makes it an important reference in Central Asian studies. This paper concluded that the Belt and Road Initiative will have a significant impact on the economy of Central Asia and its geopolitical position through the great Chinese openness and dependence on Central Asia in China’s regional and international trade. The paper also discusses the Sino-Russian contrast that may arise with the Chinese penetration into Central Asia.
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Makhmutov, R. R., and A. A. Saliev. "Socialization of Islam In The Geopolitics of Central Asia." Communicology 10, no. 3 (October 9, 2022): 54–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.21453/2311-3065-2022-10-3-54-66.
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The paper examines the socialization of Islam in the context of geopolitical processes with an emphasis on the socio-cultural component of interstate interactions in Central Asia. Based on a review of the current state of the processes of religious socialization and religious policy in the Central Asian republics, the authors conclude that these processes in the countries of the region within the framework of the EAEU are most productive when using new communicative approaches that allow stopping destructive and radical religious trends, rather than hushing them up, or ignoring. The uniqueness of the new socialization of Islam as an unconditional communicative interstate mechanism for containing radical Islamic movements lies in the fact that for the first time an idea is being implemented that involves solving the problem of terrorism and extremism, not related to the ban on religious organizations and the use of force. The authors emphasize the need for a correct, active and consistent use of the religious component in interstate integration interactions in the social space of Central Asia. This is especially important when using digital methods of interaction with actors of social action in the context of hybrid communications and the exacerbation of the geopolitical situation.
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Walsh, J. Richard. "China and the New Geopolitics of Central Asia." Asian Survey 33, no. 3 (March 1, 1993): 272–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2645251.
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Chun, Kwang Ho. "Contemporary Geopolitics Conflict between US and Central Asia." Crisis and Emergency Management 13, no. 2 (February 23, 2017): 89–105. http://dx.doi.org/10.14251/crisisonomy.2017.13.2.89.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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Mott, Christopher Douglas. "The formless empire : the evolution of indigenous Eurasian geopolitics." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/5149.
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This dissertation seeks to make a unique contribution to the study of geopolitics and empire in Central Asia by focusing on both the indigenous developments of grand strategies and their legacies by examining several key points in the history of the region's geopolitics in order to determine the peculiar and specific nature of regional geopolitical evolution, and how its basic concepts can be understood using such a locally based framework. By putting the focus on several key concepts which hold steady through major societal and technological upheavals, as well as foreign incursion and both the inward and outward migrations, which together create the conditions which I have dubbed ‘The Formless Empire', it is possible to see the elements of a regional and homegrown tradition of grand strategy and geopolitical thinking which is endemic to the area of Inner Eurasia, even as this concept adapts from a totality of political policy to merely frontier and military policy over the course of time. This indigenous concept of grand strategy encompasses political, military, and diplomatic aspects utilizing the key concepts of strategic mobility, and flexible or indirect governance. These political power systems originated in their largest incarnations amongst the nomadic people of the steppe and other people commonly considered peripheral in history, but who in a Central Asian context were the original centerpieces of regional politics until technological changes led to their eclipse by the big sedentary powers such as Russia and China. However, even these well-established states took elements of ‘The Formless Empire' into their policies (if largely relegated to frontiers, the military, and a few informal relationships alone) and therefore the influence of the region's past still lingers on in different forms in the present.
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Spaiser, Olga A. "Exercising influence in a challenging geopolitical environment : the EU’s 'Far Neighborhood’ policy in Central Asia." Thesis, Paris, Institut d'études politiques, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015IEPP0021.
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En s’appuyant sur le cas d’Asie centrale, cette thèse a pour ambition de comprendre les principes, les mécanismes et le fondement du processus de la politique étrangère européenne actuelle par lesquels l’Union européenne s’efforce de construire une politique de « grand voisinage ». L’objectif central est de savoir si l’Union est en mesure de construire des relations stables et cohérentes avec un espace stratégique et dans un environnement géopolitique complexe, audelà de sa politique européenne de voisinage. Il s’agit donc d’un cas d’étude sur le savoirfaire de l’Europe dans le monde. Notre étude a montré que l'UE essaie d'exercer son influence en prenant un rôle de « consultant ». Elle se présente comme un acteur inoffensif qui agit en dehors de tout enjeu géopolitique et qui offre son expertise. Ainsi, elle prend consciemment la position d'un acteur de second rang. Cependant, nous avons argumenté que sa vision de la région ainsi que son approche sont tout à fait de nature géopolitique, ce que l’UE dénie pourtant. Quant à son influence réelle, elle est limitée notamment en ce qui concerne sa politique normative (promotion de droits de l’homme, et d’état de droit). Bien que l'UE ne soit pas en mesure de rivaliser avec les autres acteurs dans la région (Russie, Chine), elle a pourtant des avantages comparatifs: elle est perçue comme inoffensive et occupe les domaines de sécurité qui sont négligés par les autres acteurs (la gouvernance, les conflits liés à l’eau et la gestion des frontières), jouant ainsi, certes d’acteur indispensableCentral Asia is a region beyond the EU’s direct neighborhood and thus an area that allows the EU to demonstrate its desire to enter the global political stage where it needs to cope with other great powers and to pursue its own strategic interests. However, the Central Asian republics have shown little interest for European transition assistance and political norms, unlike other postcommunist countries in Europe’s orbit. Hence, the central question of our study was thus: How does the EU exert influence in such a challenging geopolitical context? Our empirical results suggest that the EU tries to exert influence in such environment by consciously taking the position of a secondtier actor who acts as a “consultant”, rather than a power, and whose influence is confined to niche domains in the security sphere. The EU is eager to project a picture of itself as an honest broker with no geopolitical agenda in order to enhance its legitimacy; however, its vision of Central Asia being its ‘far neighborhood’ and the related approach unveils the geopolitical nature of its policies through which the EU tries to shape its close and wider environment. However, the EU struggles to put into effect its normative agenda beyond the EU’s direct neighborhood where other normative actors’ influence (Russia, China) exceeds that of the EU. The EU is not a great power in the region that is capable of competing with other external actors. Nor it is willing to become one. It does, however, have comparative advantages in being perceived as inoffensive and for occupying areas that are neglected by the other actors, thus playing the role of a niche actor, albeit an indispensable one
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Xiaodi, Wu. "Back to the heartland? transformation of Chinese geopolitics and the 'renewed' importance of Central Asia /." Related electronic resource: Current Research at SU : database of SU dissertations, recent titles available full text, 2005. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/syr/main.
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Peterson, Michael A. "China's great game in Central Asia : implications to U.S. policy in the region /." Thesis, Monterey, Calif. : Springfield, Va. : Naval Postgraduate School ; Available from National Technical Information Service, 2005. http://library.nps.navy.mil/uhtbin/hyperion/05Sep%5FPeterson%5FMichael.pdf.
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CANCARINI, DAVIDE. "LA GEOPOLITICA DELL'ENERGIA IN ASIA CENTRALE DOPO IL DISSOLVIMENTO DELL'UNIONE SOVIETICA." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/11376.
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Il dissolvimento dell'Unione Sovietica, alla fine del 1991, ha avuto un impatto di straordinaria rilevanza sull'Asia Centrale. Se il controllo di Mosca sull'area portò alla formazione di entità statuali con confini artificiali e caratterizzate dalla presenza al loro interno di un intricatissimo melting pot etnico, il crollo dell'Urss ha fatto sorgere un inedito scenario geopolitico. Il vuoto di potere registrato nel centro asiatico, infatti, ha generato una serrata competizione diplomatica tra i principali attori del sistema internazionale, ansiosi di accrescere la propria influenza sulla regione. Ciò sulla base dei principali fattori della sua rilevanza strategica, primo fra tutti quello energetico. Prendendo le mosse da tali considerazioni, il progetto di ricerca – utilizzando un approccio storico-politico – mira ad analizzare la geopolitica dell'energia relativamente al Turkmenistan, paese che dispone delle quarte riserve mondiali di gas naturale. Sulla base, da un lato, delle peculiari caratteristiche di tale risorsa e, dall'altro, dell'impatto del suo possesso sulla sfera politica interna e la proiezione internazionale della Repubblica centro asiatica, ci si propone di stabilire se quest'ultima abbia la possibilità di accrescere in futuro il proprio ruolo geopolitico, diventando un attore al centro delle dinamiche strategiche regionali e globali.The crumbling of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 has represented a decisive moment for Central Asia. Moscow's control over the area favoured the formation of state actors characterized by artificial frontiers and an extraordinary ethnic mix. On the other hand, the soviet dissolution has led to a new geopolitical situation. The lack of power experimented in the region has generated an international diplomatic race, with the main state actors eager to increase their influence over Central Asia. This mainly due to the strategic relevance of the area, especially related to the energy dimension. By starting from these assumptions, the research project aims to analyze – by adopting an historical-political approach – the geopolitics of energy with reference to Turkmenistan, a country that has at its disposal the fourth biggest reserves of natural gas globally. On the basis of the specific properties of this raw material on the one hand, and of the impact of its possession on the turkmen political sphere, on the other, the issue is defined. The goal is to establish whether Turkmenistan has the chance to increase its future geopolitical role, becoming an actor at the heart of regional and global strategic dynamics.
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CANCARINI, DAVIDE. "LA GEOPOLITICA DELL'ENERGIA IN ASIA CENTRALE DOPO IL DISSOLVIMENTO DELL'UNIONE SOVIETICA." Doctoral thesis, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10280/11376.
Full textAbstract:
Il dissolvimento dell'Unione Sovietica, alla fine del 1991, ha avuto un impatto di straordinaria rilevanza sull'Asia Centrale. Se il controllo di Mosca sull'area portò alla formazione di entità statuali con confini artificiali e caratterizzate dalla presenza al loro interno di un intricatissimo melting pot etnico, il crollo dell'Urss ha fatto sorgere un inedito scenario geopolitico. Il vuoto di potere registrato nel centro asiatico, infatti, ha generato una serrata competizione diplomatica tra i principali attori del sistema internazionale, ansiosi di accrescere la propria influenza sulla regione. Ciò sulla base dei principali fattori della sua rilevanza strategica, primo fra tutti quello energetico. Prendendo le mosse da tali considerazioni, il progetto di ricerca – utilizzando un approccio storico-politico – mira ad analizzare la geopolitica dell'energia relativamente al Turkmenistan, paese che dispone delle quarte riserve mondiali di gas naturale. Sulla base, da un lato, delle peculiari caratteristiche di tale risorsa e, dall'altro, dell'impatto del suo possesso sulla sfera politica interna e la proiezione internazionale della Repubblica centro asiatica, ci si propone di stabilire se quest'ultima abbia la possibilità di accrescere in futuro il proprio ruolo geopolitico, diventando un attore al centro delle dinamiche strategiche regionali e globali.The crumbling of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 has represented a decisive moment for Central Asia. Moscow's control over the area favoured the formation of state actors characterized by artificial frontiers and an extraordinary ethnic mix. On the other hand, the soviet dissolution has led to a new geopolitical situation. The lack of power experimented in the region has generated an international diplomatic race, with the main state actors eager to increase their influence over Central Asia. This mainly due to the strategic relevance of the area, especially related to the energy dimension. By starting from these assumptions, the research project aims to analyze – by adopting an historical-political approach – the geopolitics of energy with reference to Turkmenistan, a country that has at its disposal the fourth biggest reserves of natural gas globally. On the basis of the specific properties of this raw material on the one hand, and of the impact of its possession on the turkmen political sphere, on the other, the issue is defined. The goal is to establish whether Turkmenistan has the chance to increase its future geopolitical role, becoming an actor at the heart of regional and global strategic dynamics.
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Ferreira, Solange Reis 1964. "Grande estratégia e ordem regional : a política de energia dos Estados Unidos na Ásia Central e no Cáucaso." [s.n.], 2013. http://repositorio.unicamp.br/jspui/handle/REPOSIP/280941.
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Orientador: Sebastião Carlos Velasco e CruzTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-23T11:29:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Ferreira_SolangeReis_D.pdf: 2451285 bytes, checksum: 3d1a87c71861d9c08b3213ac4f0ddcc3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013
Resumo: Esta tese analisa a política externa de energia dos Estados Unidos na Ásia Central e no Cáucaso após a Guerra Fria. Ambas as regiões foram incluídas na grande estratégia do país, pois o fim da fronteira ideológica criou a oportunidade para que os Estados Unidos estendessem sua hegemonia. Como os recursos energéticos regionais representavam novas opções para o mercado global e condicionavam as relações entre as antigas repúblicas soviéticas, os assuntos de energia tornaram-se o princípio orientador da política externa dos Estados Unidos para essas regiões. Ademais, controlar o comércio global de energia sempre fora parte do processo de construção da Pax Americana. Nos governos Bill Clinton e George W. Bush, o planejamento implicou uma política de "portas abertas" para que o capital internacional não encontrasse barreiras de entrada. O objetivo era desenvolver os setores de petróleo e gás, e a capacidade de exportação dos países produtores. A primeira meta era aumentar a segurança energética europeia, cuja dependência em relação à Rússia interferia nos interesses estratégicos dos Estados Unidos. Tal propósito encontrou inúmeros obstáculos, sendo o principal deles o domínio russo sobre as rotas de distribuição. Diante deste quadro, o plano de ação adquiriu um caráter geopolítico, visando reduzir o monopólio russo e a projeção iraniana nas regiões. A baixa permeabilidade regional à influência da superpotência contribuiu para o fracasso do projeto. Na gestão Obama, as possibilidades surgidas com a "revolução de xisto" nos Estados Unidos indicam que a abordagem geoestratégica poderá ser substituída por uma lógica comercial, com maior foco nas nações consumidoras no entorno da Ásia Central e do Cáucaso
Abstract: This thesis analyses U.S. energy foreign policy in Central Asia and Caucasus after the Cold War. Both Regions became part of the American grand strategy, as the end of the ideological frontier created the opportunity for the extension of U.S. hegemony. Since regional energy resources meant new options for the global market and shaped the relations among the old soviet republics, energy became the guiding principle for U.S. foreign policy in those regions. Besides, the control of global energy trade had always been part of the building process of Pax Americana. In Bill Clinton's and George W. Bush's administrations, the plan implied an "open door" policy for the international capital not to face any barriers. The objective was to develop oil and gas sectors and the export capacity of the producing countries. A primary goal was to increase European energy security, whose dependence towards Russia affected U.S. strategic interests. This purpose encountered several obstacles, the main one being Russian domain over distribution routes. This framework led to a geopolitical action plan aimed to reduce Russian monopoly and Iranian projection. The regional impermeability to an influence from a superpower contributed to the failure of the project. In Obama's administration, the possibilities that arouse with "shale revolution" in U.S. suggest that the geostrategic approach might be replaced by a commercial logic, with a greater focus on consuming nations in the vicinity of Central Asia and the Caucasus
Doutorado
Ciencia Politica
Doutora em Ciência Política
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Stutte, Corey. "An Examination of Central Asian Geopolitics Through the Expected Utility Model: The New Great Game." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2009. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/2513.
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The New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data were used to develop balance of power positions and compare the outcome of 100 simulations to the actual outcome in 2000 based on Correlates of War project data. This allows us to judge whether the emergence of Russia's weak advantage as well as the continuation of the competition in the New Great Game as of 2000 could have been predicted based on what was known in 1992 and 1993. By using only one year's data to forecast the New Great Game, we are able to eliminate historical and researcher bias and judge the applicability of the model in global policy and strategic analysis.Ph.D.
Other
Health and Public Affairs
Public Affairs PhD
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Aghaie, Joobani Hossein. "Meta-Geopolitics of Central Asia : A Comparative Study of the Regional Influence of the European Union and the Shanghai Co-operation Organization." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-100397.
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Central Asia has been the focal point of intense geopolitical power struggle throughout history. At the dawn of the 21st century, Central Asia has undergone major changes as the European Union and the China-led Shanghai Co-operation Organization have emerged as two normative powers, both seeking to influence the patterns of security governance in the region. This study aims to delve deep into ‘the black boxes’ of the EU’s and China’s foreign policies toward five CA republics. It starts from the premise that the bulk of research on Eurasian politics tend to concentrate mostly on realist and traditional geopolitical doctrine, which seem to have failed to properly explain the normative and ideational transformations that have taken place in the region as a result of the presence of these two emerging normative agents. By interweaving both realist and constructivist theories of International Relations (IR) into a new all-encompassing analytical framework, termed “meta-geopolitics”, the thesis seeks to trace and examine how geopolitical as well as normative components of the EU and Chinese regional strategies have affected the contemporary power dynamics in the post-Soviet space. I argue that, in contrast to the geopolitical struggle during the 19th and 20th centuries, a clash of normative powers is brewing in the region between China, under the aegis of the SCO, and the EU. The research also concludes that China has relatively been in a better position in comparison to the EU to render its policies as feasible, effective and legitimate to the Central Asian states.
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Zhang, Yike. "La Chine en Asie centrale à travers l’étude de l’Organisation de Coopération de Shanghai." Thesis, Paris 4, 2009. http://www.theses.fr/2009PA040255.
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L’émergence de la Chine ajoute une nouvelle donnée dans la reconfiguration géopolitique de l’Asie centrale après la dissolution de l’Union soviétique. Cependant il y a peu de connaissances sur les intentions de la Chine en Asie centrale et la façon dont la politique chinoise se développe vers cette région. Tout en partant de la méthodologie géopolitique, et empruntant quelques théories des relations internationales, l’étude analyse le positionnement de la Chine en Asie centrale. Nous constatons que la Chine s’adapte de plus en plus à la nouvelle situation centrasiatique par l’adoption de l’approche multilatérale dans sa politique étrangère. Ses activités dans la région sont principalement soutenues par l’Organisation de Coopération de Shanghai, dont le prédécesseur est le Shanghai Cinq visant à résoudre la démarcation et la démilitarisation des zones frontalières. La Chine est ainsi devenue un acteur majeur et flexible, qui a relativement bien réalisé ses intérêts nationaux, tels que la stabilité du Xinjiang, la sécurité des frontières, le développement économique et l’importation énergétiqueThe emergence of China adds a new data in the geopolitical reconfiguration of Central Asia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. However, there is little knowledge about the intentions of China in Central Asia and how China’s policy is developing towards the region. Using the geopolitical methodology and borrowing some theories of international relations, the study examines the positioning of China in Central Asia. We noticed that China is becoming increasingly better adapted to the new Central Asian situation by adopting a multilateral approach in its foreign policy. Its activities in the region are mainly supported by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, whose predecessor is the Shanghai Five to resolve the demarcation and demilitarization issues of the border areas. China has become a major and flexible player, which has relatively well achieved its national interests, such as Xinjiang’s stability, border security, economic development and energy imports
Books on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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E, Fuller Graham. Central Asia: The new geopolitics. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 1992.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423.
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Ali, Banuazizi, and Weiner Myron, eds. The New geopolitics of Central Asia. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1994.
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Snyder, Jed C. After empire: The emergin geopolitics of Central Asia. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1995.
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C, Snyder Jed, National Defense University Press, and National Defense University. Institute for National Strategic Studies, eds. After empire: The emerging geopolitics of Central Asia. Washington, DC: National Defense University Press, 1995.
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Effendi, M. Y. Into the vortex of Asia: (Geo-political studies of Central Asia and Afghanistan from a South Asian viewpoint). Peshawar: Area Study Centre, University of Peshawar, 2006.
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Effendi, M. Y. Into the vortex of Asia: (Geo-political studies of Central Asia and Afghanistan from a South Asian viewpoint). Peshawar: Area Study Centre, University of Peshawar, 2006.
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Ali, Banuazizi, and Weiner Myron, eds. The New geopolitics of Central Asia and its borderlands. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1994.
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Wie, Davis Elizabeth Van, and Azizian Rouben, eds. Islam, oil, and geopolitics: Central Asia after September 11. Lanham, Md: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc., 2007.
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Marketos, Thrassy N. China's energy geopolitics: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Central Asia. Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2008.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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Hierman, Brent. "Geopolitics in Central Asia." In The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary Geopolitics, 1–23. Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-25399-7_17-1.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "India–Central Asia Relations." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 124–62. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-3.
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Jelen, Igor, Angelija Bučienė, Francesco Chiavon, Tommaso Silvestri, and Katie Louise Forrest. "Political Geography and Geopolitics." In The Geography of Central Asia, 325–47. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61266-5_14.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "Geopolitics of energy in Central Asia." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 52–123. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-2.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "Geopolitics of energy and energy security." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 14–51. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-1.
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Pradhan, Sanjay Kumar. "Central Asia: Geopolitics and “New Great Game”." In India’s Quest for Energy Through Oil and Natural Gas, 87–101. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5220-5_4.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "India–Central Asia and the energy quest." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 191–213. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-5.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "Transit routes between India and Central Asia." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 241–63. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-7.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "Introduction." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 1–13. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-0.
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Pradhan, Ramakrushna. "India’s energy trajectory." In Geopolitics of Energy in Central Asia, 163–90. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2021.: Routledge India, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003142423-4.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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Tianbao, Wang. "ON THE TURKIFICATION IN CENTRAL ASIA." In Chinese Studies in the 21st Century. Buryat State University Publishing Department, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18101/978-5-9793-1802-8-2022-74-82.
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"Central Asia" is not only a concept of physical geography, but also a concept of cultural region and geopolitics, and has a narrow and broad sense. At present, the common term "Central Asia" refers to Central Asia in a narrow sense, whi ch is closely related to the political and economic fields, namely, the "five Central Asian countries". Historically, the region has been affected by Turkization for a long time. In the 6th century, Turks first e s- tablished and ruled in Central Asia, which was the warm up stage of Turkization in Central Asia. In the 7th century, Arabs moved eastward to promote the integration between Central Asian people and Turks, which was the initial stage of Turkization in Central Asia. In the 11th century, the Turkic dy nasty represented by the Karahan Khanate replaced the rule of the Iranian language group in Central Asia, and the Turkization of Central Asia stepped into an accelerated stage. In the 15th century, the Mongols were also Turkized in the process of ruling Central Asia, and Central Asia Turkization entered the formation stage.
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De Jesus, Letícia, and Paulo Duarte. "The Geopolitics of Sino-Russian Regionalism in Central Asia: Kazakhstan in Analysis." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c14.02616.
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Central Asia is often seen as Russia’s near-abroad. Nonetheless, recent years have shown a more active China in quest for resources, stability, and an attempt to build a Eurasian land axis, to allow a faster connection between East and West within China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Interestingly, both China (BRI) and Russia’s (Eurasian Economic Union) regionalist projects were launched in Kazakhstan, which shows the centrality of this country in the region. We will focus on the geopolitical impacts for Kazakhstan stemming from the overlapping synergies between both the BRI and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). We aim to understand whether this juxtaposition of regional initiatives could be beneficial or cause harm to Kazakhstan’s regional interests. In so doing, we aim at filling in a gap in literature, which has failed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the benefits versus handicaps caused by the overlapping generated by the EAEU and the BRI. Drawing on a qualitative methodology which encompasses primary sources (official speeches and news agencies) and secondary sources (the most respected authors on the field), we argue that Kazakhstan stance vis-à-vis the BRI and the EAEU has been proposedly ambiguous in order to maximize its interests. This being said, the conceptual lens that best serves our purposes is social constructivism. According to it, international relations are best explained by a moderate approach in which states cooperate instead of relying either on a search for survival (as realism defends) or on a utopia of liberal kindness (according to liberalism).
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Karluk, S. Rıdvan, and Ayşen Hiç Gencer. "Turkey and Uzbekistan Relations within the Scope of Economic and Political Integration of Central Asia." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01466.
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After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan declared her sovereignty on June 20th, 1990 and her independence on September 1st, 1991. Turkey was the first country to recognize the Republic of Uzbekistan on December 16th, 1991. On March 4th, 1992, diplomatic relations between Turkey and Uzbekistan were established and more than 90 bilateral agreements and protocols were signed. Among the Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan has an important geopolitical location and has the largest Turkish population. Turkish and Uzbek people share the same culture and language (Uzbek-Chagatai Turkish). Prime Minister Erdoğan and President Kerimov emphasized the necessity of improving the Turkish-Uzbek relations at the opening ceremony of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics. Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoğlu's visit on July 10th, 2014 started improving bilateral relations that had come to a halt in 2003. This paper analyzes Turkish-Uzbek relations in the framework of integration in Central Asia and with respect to the structural economic changes in Uzbekistan and her foreign trade policy.
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JI- EON, LEE, and YOO NA-YEON. "SOUTH KOREA’S DIPLOMATIC RELATIONSHIP WITH UZBEKISTAN SINCE 1991: STRATEGY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF EACH GOVERNMENT." In UZBEKISTAN-KOREA: CURRENT STATE AND PROSPECTS OF COOPERATION. OrientalConferences LTD, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.37547/ocl-01-03.
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One of the biggest events in international political history at the end of the 20th century was end of the Cold War due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, the Cold War system, led by the US and the Soviet Union as the two main axes, disappeared into history, dramatically changing the international situation and creating new independent states in the international community. In the past, as the protagonist of the Silk Road civilization, it was a channel of trade and culture, linking the East and the West, but as members of the former Soviet Union, Central Asian countries whose importance and status were not well known have emerged on the international stage in the process of forming a new international order. After independence, Central Asia countries began to attract attention from the world as the rediscovery of the Silk Road, that is, the geopolitical importance of being the center of the Eurasian continent, and as a treasure trove of natural resources such as oil and gas increased.
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Gazioğlu, Şaziye, and Fatoş Otcuoğlu. "The Central Asian Countries and the Energy Sector: Economics, Politics and Legal Aspects." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00434.
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This paper is written with aim of investigating the importance of the natural resources within the Central Asian energy sector. The geopolitics position of the Central Asian Countries place them in the centre of conflicting powers; that is to say, on the one hand they are providing energy to Europe and USA, and on the other hand they are next to China, which has the highest and growing demand for energy consumption. In political arena, China accordingly seeks to prevent the independence of East Turkistan, which has historical links to Turkistan (West) in Russia. In this regard, we examine the energy policies and trade between states, and we particularly focus on the gas and oil pipelines from said countries to Europe. We also examine the demand from Caucasian and the Central Asian Countries by European, and Pacific Countries and, as well as, the USA. Correspondingly, we discuss the political conflicts upon the energy investments, and mainly concentrate on the investments in Central Asian and Commonwealth of Independent States (“CIS”), and the political risks and legal disputes relating to foreign energy investment and stability implications in this regard.
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Özkan, Gökhan. "The Nabucco Project within Context of Energy Supply Security and International Politics." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00202.
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The Nabucco Project is a project, which aims to transport rich natural gas resources of the Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East to the European market via Turkey. In this study, the Nabucco Project was evaluated within context of the energy supply security concept and international politics.
Firstly, interdependence between national power and energy supply security was investigated. How oil and natural gas became strategic raw materials of world politics beyond being primary energy resources of the global economy was examined. It was found that discovery of rich oil and natural gas resources in the Central Asia and the Caucasus after the Cold War turned the region into a focus of interest of the global and regional actors. In this connection, perspectives of the global and regional actors about the Nabucco Project were examined.
As a result of analyses and evaluations, it was concluded that the Nabucco Project is a project that can significantly enhance Turkey’s geopolitical importance and make Turkey one of the key countries of the east-west energy corridor.
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Karaağaçlı, Abbas. "Interaction of Political Stability and Economic Development in Central Asian Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00467.
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Central Asian Countries decolonized by break up of USSR, struggle with the important and unsolvable problems during the process of transition from an implicit and statist economic system to the capitalist system. Although 20 years have passed, the liberal countries adopted the free market economy, face the big handicaps in the transition process of their economic system to the modern capitalist system. I have been in these territories in the transition process from socialist system to the capitalist system. So I am sure that the field of tourism, trade, industry, agriculture and service has the important role in the development planning of the countries. In this study I will try to emphasize the significance and necessity of political stability and social peace and comfort to the development of tourism and trade. My former studies focused on some countries of the Central Asian Countries, had got great attention in the international congresses. Now I will try to review the importance of tourism and trade in the development of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and necessity of political stability and the advantages and disadvantages of these countries in this way. Naturally underground and over ground treasures, geopolitical, geostrategic, geo-economic positions, political systems, social structures of this region and regional balances affect directly or deviously the political stability of above countries. In this study I will try to offer suggestions in view of the fact that these interactions.
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Khristoforov, Vasily Stepanovich. "RUSSIA, CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES AND AFGHANISTAN IN THE NEW GEOPOLITICAL LANDSCAPE: PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION, NEW RISKS AND «WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY»." In Международная научная конференция "Мир Центральной Азии-V", посвященная 100-летию Института монголоведения,буддологии и тибетологии Сибирского отделения Российской академии наук. Новосибирск: Сибирское отделение РАН, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53954/9785604788981_652.
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Dmitriev, Vladimir. "ON THE GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST DURING THE 360S — 370S AD." In ANCIENT AND MEDIEVAL CULTURES OF CENTRAL ASIA (THE FORMATION, DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION OF URBANIZED AND CATTLE-BREEDING SOCIETIES). Institute for the History of Material Culture of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31600/978-5-907298-09-5-179-180.
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Akça, Tacinur. "Foreign Trade Relations Between Turkey and the Eurasian Countries: An Empirical Study." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c07.01793.
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The Eurasian Countries incorporates many economic and cultural wealth. The Eurasian countries have attracted attention all over the world with its rich oil and natural gas reserves and geopolitical situation. Due to the increasing importance of the Eurasian countries, as well as being an alternative to a political foreign policy and it has created an economically viable alternative in terms of foreign trade for Turkey. The importance of exports is increasing for the development of Turkey and Eurasia cannot be neglected as an important issue. History of the republic's foreign policy is focused on establishing good relations with the West. Of the Soviet Union collapsed and the Cold War ended after the opening of the new Turkish foreign policy became inevitable to be based in Central Asia and the Caucasus, Turkey aimed to be active in this region.
The main purpose of our study was that Turkey's foreign trade with The Eurasian Countries is to reveal the relationship. The interest in the region began in the beginning of 1990, the economic policies implemented by Turkey has tried to analyze using relevant data. İn our study, in order to analyze the economic relationship between our countries and Eurasian Countries, Turkey's import and export figures which were explained in the form of tables with the countries concerned. We will concentrate on the major Eurasian countries, especially in our work we focus on Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova.
Reports on the topic "Geopolitics – asia, central"
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Arduino, Alessandro. Central Asia caught in a geopolitical tug of war. East Asia Forum, February 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.59425/eabc.1708984800.
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Goreczky, Péter. Southeast Asia in the US-China Tech Rivalry II. : Digital Infrastructure Development and Data Governance. Külügyi és Külgazdasági Intézet, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.47683/kkielemzesek.ke-2022.17.
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The economic development of Southeast Asia is increasingly dependent on establishing a cutting-edge digital infrastructure. In some segments of digital infrastructure, for example, data centre operations, the presence and strategy of the two nations’ tech companies in Southeast Asia has mainly been driven by market considerations. As for smart and safe city solutions, submarine internet cables, and 5G infrastructure, investment projects are linked to security concerns to a greater extent and are increasingly affected by the tech rivalry of the two great powers. The maze of geopolitical and business motivations and interests makes it more challenging for ASEAN nations to navigate the tech war and face the dual challenge of rapidly developing the digital infrastructure and avoiding taking sides in tech decoupling. The lack of global legislation on digital issues enables great tech powers to push their own data governance models. An intensifying clash between the US and China over data governance concepts would pose a risk to the evolution of adequate local legislation in the ASEAN region.
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Chandrasekhar, C. P. The Long Search for Stability: Financial Cooperation to Address Global Risks in the East Asian Region. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp153.
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Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.
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Fernandez-Stark, Karina, Penny Bamber, and Vivian Couto. Analysis of the Textile and Clothing Industry Global Value Chains. Inter-American Development Bank, December 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004638.
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The textile and apparel industry is a highly globalized, multi-trillion-dollar sector. Today, production networks are dominated by low-cost Asian countries with very large labor-pools, which has made it increasingly difficult for other producers around the world to compete, including those in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). While the region has participated in the industry, there are currently no LAC countries amongst the leading ten exporters. The COVID-19 pandemic, together with rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China, however, has disrupted this well-established business model over the past two to three years. This creates the most significant opportunity of the past decade to reconfigure the geography of the supply chain; as a small, but long-term supplier, with proximity to the worlds largest single market, Central America is well-positioned to benefit from these changes. Nonetheless, the region needs to upgrade various aspects of their GVC participation in order to become a serious contender in the reconfiguration of the industry. Key policies should focus on developing human capital through industry-specific training initiatives; intensifying investment attraction efforts; and aggressively investing in both hard and soft infrastructure to reduce barriers to trade and enhance lead time responsiveness.
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Fernandez-Stark, Karina, Penny Bamber, and Vivian Couto. Analysis of the Textile and Clothing Industry Global Value Chains: Summary. Inter-American Development Bank, December 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004663.
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The textile and apparel industry is a highly globalized, multi-trillion-dollar sector. Today, production networks are dominated by low-cost Asian countries with very large labor-pools, which has made it increasingly difficult for other producers around the world to compete, including those in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). While the region has participated in the industry, there are currently no LAC countries amongst the leading ten exporters. The COVID-19 pandemic, together with rising geopolitical tensions between the US and China, however, has disrupted this well-established business model over the past two to three years. This creates the most significant opportunity of the past decade to reconfigure the geography of the supply chain; as a small, but long-term supplier, with proximity to the worlds largest single market, Central America is well-positioned to benefit from these changes. Nonetheless, the region needs to upgrade various aspects of their GVC participation in order to become a serious contender in the reconfiguration of the industry. Key policies should focus on developing human capital through industry-specific training initiatives; intensifying investment attraction efforts; and aggressively investing in both hard and soft infrastructure to reduce barriers to trade and enhance lead time responsiveness.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.
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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias