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1
Löbler, Helge, Hans Kjellberg, Kaj Storbacka, Melissa Akaka, Jennifer Chandler, John Finch, Sara Lindeman, Katy Mason, Janet McColl-Kennedy, and Suvi Nenonen. "Market futures, future markets." Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2017. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-218378.
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What do marketing scholars need to know about markets? The quote above places markets at the heart of marketing theory. Yet many commentators have lamented the scant attention paid to markets in marketing and argued for the need to better understand this central facet of the subject (Araujo et al., 2008; Vargo, 2007; Venkatesh et al., 2006). We share this view and outline issues and research opportunities against the backdrop of recent contributions proposing a practice approach to markets (Araujo et al., 2010; Kjellberg and Helgesson, 2007; Storbacka and Nenonen, 2011; Vargo and Lusch, 2011). A central tenet in this tradition is the idea that working markets are always in the making; that they are the continuous results of market practices. Paraphrasing Vargo and Lusch (2004): markets are not, they become. In this process of becoming, markets take on multiple forms as a result of practical efforts by many different actors to shape economic exchanges, establish rules for their performance, and represent such exchanges as markets. The observation that economic theories (including marketing) contribute to shape markets by influencing these practical efforts (Callon, 1998) introduces a complication in our study of markets and presents a reflexive challenge for marketers studying the shaping of markets.
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Wong, Alan 1954. "Futures-Forward Price Differences and Efficiency in the Treasury Bill Futures Market." Thesis, North Texas State University, 1986. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc330688/.
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This study addressed two issues. First, it examined the ability of two models, developed by Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR), to explain the differences between futures and implicit forward prices in the thirteen-week T-bill market. The models imply that if future interest rates are stochastic, futures and forward prices differ; the structural difference is due to the daily settlement process required in futures trading. Second, the study determined the efficiency of the thirteen-week T-bill futures market using volatility and regression tests. Volatility tests use variance bounds to examine whether futures prices are excessively volatile for the market to be efficient. Regression tests investigate whether futures prices are unbiased predictors of future spot prices. The study was limited to analysis of the first three futures contracts, using weekly price data as reported in the Wall Street Journal from March, 1976 to December, 1984. Testing of the first CIR model involved determination of whether changes in futures-forward price differences are related to changes in local covariances between T-bill futures and bond prices. The same procedure applied in testing the second model with respect to changes in futures-forward price differences, local covariances between T-bill spot and bond prices, and local variances of bond prices. Volatility tests of market efficiency involved comparison of mean variances on both sides of two inequality equations. Regression tests involved determination of whether slope coefficients are significantly different from zero.
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Mattsson, Henrik, and Jonas Vikström. "Currency Future Efficiency : Do Currency Futures Predict Future Spot Exchange Rates?" Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-45940.
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This paper has tested the efficiency, weak form according to EMH, of the currency future market. The efficiency test has been incorporated in the research question since the market has to be efficient in order for the future to work as predictor of the future spot rate - Can currency futures be used as a tool for predicting futures spot exchange rate? The two sub questions are - Is the prediction power of currency futures stable over time and is the prediction power of currency futures similar for different currencies? The main theory in the research is the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the Random Walk Hypothesis. The research was conducted with a positivistic philosophy in conjunction with a realistic approach. Since the research question has been deducted from the theoretical framework the research has a deductive approach, a quantitative technique was adapted when the data at hand was mainly future and spot rate data. Data on 13 currencies ranging from 2005 to 2010 was used. The prices were available in weekly intervals for all currencies except for the Brazilian real, Swiss frank and the Mexican peso. The statistical test that was used is the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and the Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration test. The test was conducted on the whole timeframe. After that, the data was divided into three sub periods to show if the efficiency where different in the period before the crises (2005-2007), during the crises (2008-2009) and after the crises (2010). The test has also been done on annual and quarterly data to show if the length of the time period tested has an effect on efficiency. The PO test has been conducted on all data and the ADF test has been conducted on the whole timeframe and the sub periods. The results show that, ten of the currencies which we had weakly data, the future is a good predictor of the future spot exchange rate. This is true when the tests are done on an interval of one year and more. For the three currencies that we had monthly data, the results showed cointegration on the whole timeframe. When shorter time periods were tested the currencies that consisted of monthly data showed no cointegration sooner than the weakly data. When test is done on quarterly data, only one test is cointegrated. It cannot concluded that, the future was not a good predictor for the future spot exchange rate during this time, merely that this particular test might be the true one and that the tests where not able to capture it. Several reasons for this are presented in the analysis chapter, where the statistical tests and their design are mentioned among other reasons.
4
Assakul, Phensoame Fai. "Future perspectives for manufacturing : exploring the futures-strategy interface." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.615257.
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Phillips, Sean M. Arch Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Forest futures." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/115626.
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Thesis: M. Arch., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Architecture, 2018.This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.
Cataloged from student-submitted PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (page 141).
With recent interest in carbon emissions, wood has returned as a fashionable building material. Renewable, flexible, and a carbon sink, wood is increasingly seen as a material that responds to concerns of climate change. However, an acceptance of the Anthropocene demands a re-thinking of how humans relate to natural systems, and this thesis argues that with a return to wood, architecture must also return to its source - the forest - for inspiration and sites of intervention. This thesis sites itself within Mendocino National Forest in northern California. As sites of both extraction and conservation, National Forests are messy landscapes often overlooked in favor of their more manicured cousins, National Parks. National Forests are also under threat. Political hostility towards public land, drought, and wildfire threaten northern Californian forests more than ever before. 2017 - like 2015, 2012, 2006, and 2002 - has been the worst year on record for wildfire in California. National Forest budgets are increasingly consumed by fire suppression and - fueled by a changing climate and poor management - dangerous wildfires are the new normal for California. Fire, the great destroyer, is also a valuable ecosystem actor. Forest (and Californian) futures will depend on looking beyond the crisis of fire for opportunities within the fire cycle. This project proposes 'forest futures' in three chapters, each located at a point within the northern Californian mixed-conifer fire cycle - fighting fire, after the burn, and working with fire. Mendocino National Forest, even as the least visited in California, is filled with overlapping human and non-human worlds. Each chapter proposes an architectural intervention that engages the world of a forest dweller and their forest - the Conservation Tower, Burnout Lodge, and the Yule Tree Farm.
by Sean Phillips.
M. Arch.
6
Hardesty, Robby. "CATASTROPHIC FUTURES." UKnowledge, 2018. https://uknowledge.uky.edu/geography_etds/59.
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By means of a peculiar magic, insurance preserves the quantified value of capital through destructive, contingent events. The principal subjects of this project, global reinsurers, stand at the end of a long line of loss claims, holding capital together as forces threaten to tear it apart. The apocalyptic imaginaries of climate change portend events that will be increasingly destructive to capital, and insurers counter with new products and narratives. In examining reinsurers and the catastrophes they protect against, this project questions how novelty emerges from the eternal return of the same. I show how power is inscribed in the landscape, maintained through the ritual of daily reproduction, and protected from looming outliers to build a long inheritance. Using Walter Benjamin's meditations on violence, I then explore the swerves and breaks that might make the world otherwise.
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Baylor, Brendan Neil. "Contested futures." Thesis, University of Iowa, 2014. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/4573.
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Wong, Cheong-har. "The business of futures." View the Table of Contents & Abstract, 1990. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13563567.
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Wong, Cheong-har, and 黃創霞. "The business of futures." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1990. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31972792.
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Löbler, Helge, Hans Kjellberg, Kaj Storbacka, Melissa Akaka, Jennifer Chandler, John Finch, Sara Lindeman, Katy Mason, Janet McColl-Kennedy, and Suvi Nenonen. "Market futures, future markets: research directions in the study of markets." Sage, 2012. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A15286.
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What do marketing scholars need to know about markets? The quote above places markets at the heart of marketing theory. Yet many commentators have lamented the scant attention paid to markets in marketing and argued for the need to better understand this central facet of the subject (Araujo et al., 2008; Vargo, 2007; Venkatesh et al., 2006). We share this view and outline issues and research opportunities against the backdrop of recent contributions proposing a practice approach to markets (Araujo et al., 2010; Kjellberg and Helgesson, 2007; Storbacka and Nenonen, 2011; Vargo and Lusch, 2011). A central tenet in this tradition is the idea that working markets are always in the making; that they are the continuous results of market practices. Paraphrasing Vargo and Lusch (2004): markets are not, they become. In this process of becoming, markets take on multiple forms as a result of practical efforts by many different actors to shape economic exchanges, establish rules for their performance, and represent such exchanges as markets. The observation that economic theories (including marketing) contribute to shape markets by influencing these practical efforts (Callon, 1998) introduces a complication in our study of markets and presents a reflexive challenge for marketers studying the shaping of markets.
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An, Jihyun. "Feminist Futures : Futures studies through the lens of feminist epistemologies." Thesis, KTH, Hållbar utveckling, miljövetenskap och teknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-224522.
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This study explores how futures studies could engage with critical feminist perspectives in an intrinsic manner and what feminist futures might mean. The study brings attention to the less discussed subject of epistemological basis in futures studies. Literature study and semi-structured interviews with practitioners and researchers working with feminist approaches in the fields related to futures development was deployed. I’ve analyzed Wendell Bell’s discussion on epistemological foundation of futures studies from feminist epistemological perspective, and have suggested the potential of feminist epistemology of situated knowledges and partial objectivity for futures studies. Based on the findings from the semi-structured interviews, an alternative feminist scenario set in Swedish society in the year of 2050 in the format of a fiction is presented with the aim to provide a detailed and situated narrative of political and daily lives in feminist futures. The feminist futures scenario should not be understood as the singular feminist future suggested for implementation. The intention is to demonstrate how the visionary dimensions of feminist studies could be articulated in various forms of futures studies, and to open up space for rich debates on envisioning feminist futures.Denna studie utforskar hur framtidsstudier skulle kunna anta ett kritiskt feministiskt perspektiv på ett djuplodande sätt och vad feministiska framtider skulle kunna innebära. Litteraturstudier och semistrukturerade intervjuer med utövare och forskare som arbetar med feministiska tillvägagångssätt inom fält relaterade till framtidsutveckling har genomförts. Jag har analyserat Wendell Bells diskussion om den epistemologiska grunden för framtidsstudier utifrån ett feministiskt epistemologiskt perspektiv, och har föreslagit feministisk epistemologi om situerad kunskap och partiell objektivitet som potentiell epistemologi för framtidsstudier. Utifrån fynden i de semistrukturerade intervjuerna presenteras ett alternativt feministiskt scenario för ett svenskt samhälle år 2050 i ett fiktivt format med syftet att ge ett detaljerat och situerat narrativ om det politiska och dagliga livet inom feministiska framtider. Det feministiska framtidsscenariot bör inte läsas som den enda feministiska framtiden avsedd för implementering. Avsikten är att visa hur feministiska studiers visionära dimensioner kan uttryckas på olika sätt i framtidsstudier och ge utrymme för en bred debatt om hur feministiska framtider kan gestaltas.
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He, Qiao. "Trading Oil Futures." Thesis, University of Gävle, Department of Technology and Built Environment, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hig:diva-629.
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Oil is an important energy source and a necessary industrial raw material. Every country’s economic growth and the daily life of its people are dependent on this energy form.
Historically, the oil prices have varied significantly on the world market. This led to at least two oil crises when prices increased in a very fast pace. In order to reduce such rapid fluctuations, oil was introduced at so called commodity exchanges. At such trading places oil could be traded openly for future delivery and hence the market was aware of price changes in advance. A commodity exchange sells special contracts in the form of so called “futures”. In fact there are many different contracts, each exchange has its own set of them covering for a number of different oil types. This thesis deals with these contracts and how they are traded.
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Hrečka, Marek. "Obchodování futures spread." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2013. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-198251.
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The purpose of the thesis is to identify factors that affect the profitability and risk of trading futures calendar spreads. The basic characteristics of futures and trading calendar spreads with seasonal time frames are described in the first part of the thesis. The selected factors such as the correlation of short-term and long-term seasonal patterns, the trading in the extreme, the trading single or multiple crops, the width of the seasonal window, the win probability, the length of backtested period and intermarket vs. intramarket spreads are analyzed from the perspective of profitability and risk in the second part. A summary of the results is contained in the conclusion.
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Heyman, Susanna. "Visualizing Financial Futures." Doctoral thesis, KTH, Medieteknik och interaktionsdesign, MID, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-211657.
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Research on financial decision aids, systems designed to help people make financial decisions, is sparse. Previous research has often focused on the theoretical soundness of the advice that the systems provide.The original contribution of this doctoral thesis is a set of empirical studies of how non-expert people understand the advice provided by financial decision aids. Since every piece of advice must be interpreted by a receiver, the accuracy of the advice can be corrupted along the way if the receiver does not understand complicated terminology, probabilistic reasoning, or abstract concepts.The design concept resulting from the studies visualizes a unique combination of short-term and long-term variables that are usually treated as separate and not interacting with each other; loans and amortizations, insurance, retirement saving, and consumption. The aim is to visualize the consequences of different decisions and possible adverse events in terms of their effect on the user’s future consumption, rather than abstract numbers detached from the user’s lived experience.The design concept was tested and evaluated by personal finance experts and professional financial advisors, as well as students and people without financial education, who represented the target users of the system. Results indicate that the system has a learning curve, but that once users understand how to read the graph, they find it more informative than conventional financial planning tools.QC 20170809
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Coelho, Bruno. "Um estudo sobre os impactos da surpresa dos indicadores macroeconômicos de atividade e inflação no mercado futuro brasileiro de juros." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12361.
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The monetary policy guidelines are defined based on macro indexes released to the market periodically. The agents of this market react quickly to any changes in macroeconomic environment, trying to obtain high profits or to avoid significant financial losses. Considering this, this paper intends to analyze how interest rate future market reacts when surprises in macroeconomic indexes are released, suggesting a new methodology to forecast the market reaction through the construction of an aggregate surprise index. Using data extracted from Bloomberg and BM&F Bovespa, we constructed a simplified data base by adopting assumptions to measure the impact of surprises disclosed in the price of DI Futuro. The standardization of parameters, applying average tests and optimizing regressions by OLS allowed to weight relatively a set of macro indexes according to their effect on market volatility. Finally, we made a test on the proposed aggregate surprise index that showed it was more efficient in forecasting the market reaction than another index that considered equal weights to all set of macroeconomic index.
As diretrizes de política monetária são definidas com base em resultados dos indicadores macroeconômicos divulgados ao mercado periodicamente. Os agentes deste mercado respondem rapidamente às alterações de cenário, com o objetivo de obter lucro ou evitar perdas financeiras expressivas. Com este motivacional, a proposta deste trabalho é avaliar como reage o mercado futuro de juros diante da divulgação de surpresas em determinados indicadores macroeconômicos, propondo um indicador de surpresa agregado para prever os impactos causados. Através dos dados extraídos da Bloomberg e da BM&F Bovespa, foi construída uma base de dados simplificada pela adoção de premissas para mensuração do impacto das surpresas divulgadas no preço do DI Futuro. A padronização dos parâmetros, a realização dos testes de média e as regressões otimizadas pelo método OLS possibilitaram ponderar os indicadores econômicos de acordo com a oscilação que os mesmos causam a este mercado. Por fim, o teste de comparação mostrou que o indicador de surpresa proposto foi mais eficiente nas previsões da reação do mercado do que um indicador que pondere de forma igualitária todos os indicadores macroeconômicos.
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Wright, David Lindsay. "Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2010. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/41516/1/David_Wright_Thesis.pdf.
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How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.
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Cheng, Sai-ho. "Rolling Forex /." Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 1998. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B19909135.
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Lau, Sun-wo. "Government regulation of futures market /." [Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong], 1985. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B12316854.
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Zhang, Siran. "The Predictive Power of the VIX Futures Prices on Future Realized Volatility." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2019. https://scholarship.claremont.edu/cmc_theses/2174.
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Many past literatures have examined the predictive power of implied volatility versus that of historical volatility, but they have showed divergent conclusions. One of the major differences among these studies is the methods that they used to obtain implied volatility. The VIX index, introduced in 1993, provides a model-free and directly observable source of implied volatility data. The VIX futures is an actively traded VIX derivative product, and its prices are believed to contain market’s expectation about future volatility. By analyzing the relationship between the VIX futures prices and the realized volatilities of the 30-day period that these VIX futures contracts cover, this paper finds that the VIX futures contracts with shorter maturities have predictive power on future realized volatility, but they are upwardly biased estimates. The predictive power, however, decreases as the time to maturity increases. The outstanding VIX futures contracts with the nearest expiration dates outperform GARCH estimates based on historical return data at predicting future realized volatility.
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Cheung, Yuk-lung Alan. "The Hang Seng Index options market in Hong Kong /." [Hong Kong] : University of Hong Kong, 1994. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13787093.
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Evans, Martyn. "Design futures : an investigation into the role of futures thinking in design." Thesis, Lancaster University, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.551668.
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Designers consider the future as an intrinsic aspect of the design process yet, there has been limited academic investigation of the approaches designers employ to create next- next generation products and services. The central aim of this thesis is to investigate the role of futures thinking in design. It draws upon the field of future studies to provide a theoretical base for the research. The research answers three questions: How do designers engage with the future within the design process? What futures thinking methods are employed in the design process? What futures thinking methods do designers employ? Data was collected via semi-structured interviews in the UK and USA with 40+ designers, researchers, and design managers. Six research propositions provide a framework for qualitative data analysis through which a series of theoretical categories and associated substantive factors are identified. Analysis of the research findings supported the development of a design futures framework that communicates a representative picture of the role of future thinking in design, and contributes to understanding the ways in which designers consider the future in the design process. The study identifies the growing need for organisations to engage designers to consider the future within an increasingly complex and competitive product and service developmental landscape.
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Soyinka, Bambo. "Virtual futures : imagining futures through moving imagery and narrative in documentary film." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2010. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.584993.
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The thesis explores how documentary film makers and viewers use moving imagery and narrative as tools to imagine virtual futures. The author uses the term "virtual futures" to describe latent personal, environmental or social processes that are underway in the present (Adam 2004). The aim of this thesis is to explore the potential for creative and beneficial transformation that occurs when humans enter into an imaginative dialogue with these virtual futures. Underlying the study is an interest in the sustainable growth of the person in relation to wider environmental, global and future realities. How then, as documentary film makers and viewers, can we mediate relations between visual and virtual realities The thesis argues, using Sterling's theory of "sustainable education" (2001), that the challenge is neither to simply make invisible futures visible (filming about sustainable development), nor to produce alternative visions for futures (film making for sustainable development), but to help individuals engage with the future as a process (film making as sustainable development). Virtual Futures brings together knowledge across two key fields: social science and film studies. In addition, the thesis is informed by a third area: the author's practice as an artist and film maker. The text builds upon the works of Barbara Adam, Augusto Boal, Sergei Eisenstein, John Grierson, Charles S Pierce, Alfred Schutz, Stephen Sterling, Bronislaw Szerszynski and Dziga Vertov. Empirically, the author uses ethnographic methods and interviews to explore contemporary film makers' experiences. She also studies online audience forums, in which viewers discuss their experiences of the film Koyaanisqatsi (Reggio 1983). Theoretically, the thesis develops a "semiotic phenomenology" of futures and includes an exposition of instantaneous, immediate and durational aspects of film. The author proposes that certain formations in film can expand outwards to embrace futures and, subsequently, she searches for moving-images, narratives and ways of viewing that engage with the future as process. Ultimately, the thesis provides an overview and analysis of the intersubjective and inter-relational exchanges that occur between film makers, participants and viewers and with the hidden, future relationships that connect them.
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Atkinson, Stuart. "A futures approach to water distribution and sewer network (re)design." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10871/10730.
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When designing urban water systems (i.e. water distribution and sewer systems) it is imperative that uncertainty is taken into consideration. However, this is a challenging problem due to the inherent uncertainty associated with both system loading requirements and the potential for physical components failure. It is therefore desirable to improve the reliability of each system in order to account for these uncertainties. Although it is possible to directly evaluate the reliability of a water distribution systems (WDS) (using reliability measures), the calculation processes involved are computationally intensive and therefore unsuitable for some state-of-the-art, iterative design approaches (such as optimisation). Consequently, interest has recently grown in the use of reliability indicators, which are simpler and faster to evaluate than conventional direct reliability methods. In this thesis, a novel measure (the RUF) is developed to quantify reliability in urban water systems with a view to enhance their robustness under a range of future scenarios (Policy Reform, Market Forces, Fortress World and New-Sustainability Paradigm). The considered four future scenarios were synthesized in the EPSRC supported multidisciplinary 4 year project: Urban Futures. Each investigated urban future scenario is characterised by a distinct household water demand and local demand distribution (emerging due to different urban forms evolving in future scenarios). In order to assess the impact of urban futures, RUF has been incorporated into Urban Water System (UWS) dynamic simulations for both WDSs and Foul Sewer Systems (FSSs) using open source codes of EPANET and SWMM. Additionally, in order to overcome extensive computational effort, resulting from the use of traditional reliability measures, a new holistic reliability indicator, the hydraulic power entropy (IHPE) has been developed and compared to existing reliability indicators. Additionally, the relationship between the new reliability indicator and the above mentioned RUF reliability measure is investigated. Results suggest that the magnitude of the IHPE in network solutions provides a holistic indication of the hydraulic performance and reliability for a WDS. However, the performance of optimal solutions under some Urban Futures indicates that additional design interventions are required in order to achieve desired future operation. This thesis also proposes a new holistic foul sewer system (FSS) reliability indicator (the IFSR). The IFSR represents sewer performance as a function of excess pipe capacity (in terms of available increase and also decrease in inflow). The indicator has been tested for two case studies (i.e. different sewer network layouts). Results suggest that the magnitude of IFSR has positive correlations with a number of identified key performance indicators (i.e. relating to capacity, velocity, blockages). Finally, an Integrated Design Approach (IDA) has been developed in order to assess the implications of applying design interventions on both a WDS and downstream FSS. The approach holistically considers present and future operation of each interconnected system. The approach was subsequently demonstrated using two proposed design interventions. Results suggest that, for the considered design interventions, there is trade-off between the simultaneous improvement of both WDS and FSS operation and reliability.
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Wan, Hon-kuen Francis. "The Hong Kong stock index futures market /." [Hong Kong] : University of Hong Kong, 1987. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B12334868.
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Shu, Haicheng. "Essays on commodity futures." Thesis, University of York, 2017. http://etheses.whiterose.ac.uk/18802/.
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This thesis intends to study the mechanism behind the commodity futures term structure, and the interaction between commodity markets, particularly the crude oil market, and the macroeconomic indicators in the real economy. The first part of thesis comprises a comprehensive review of the relevant literature, revealing that, although there has been extensive investigation into commodity prices and their term structure modelling, based on either ``pure macro'' or ``pure finance'' perspectives, the discussion of their joint application, remains very limited. The subsequent preliminary data analysis highlights some other concerns in respect to this subject area, such as the effect of the unit root, commonly observed in the commodity price related models, and its possible solution. On the basis of these observations, I propose two models to add to the existing literature. The second part of this thesis proposes a joint affine term structure model for multiple commodity futures contracts. In this model, the instantaneous short rate factor is a pure latent variable, and is jointly determined by several commodity markets. The empirical evidence, presented in this part, suggests that the path of this ``commodity market implied short rate factor'' is consistent with the policy rate. It reveals that the expectation in respect to the interest rate in the commodity market reflects and anticipates developments in monetary policy. The third part of this thesis presents a macro-finance model for the economy and the oil market, allowing us to study interactions between the convenience yield, the spot and futures markets, monetary policy and macroeconomic variables. I use the Kalman filter to represent latent variables that handle the effects of exogenous shocks to inflation and the oil price, and to deal with missing observations. Traditional models use latent variables, with little economic meaning, to explain commodity futures, while this model makes the effect of macroeconomic variables explicit. I find a significant interaction between the economy and the oil markets, including an important link in the monetary transmission mechanism, running from the policy interest rate to the convenience yield, oil price and hence inflation and policy transmission.
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Gammon, Sean James. "Sporting pasts – tourist futures." Thesis, University of Central Lancashire, 2011. http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/3053/.
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The last fifteen years has seen significant growth and advancement in the study of sport tourism. The publication of numerous texts, journal and conference papers - along with the progress made to the Journal of Sport and Tourism are testament to the subject’s maturity. In tandem with these developments institutions in higher education have seen a proliferation in modules, programmes and courses at both under graduate and post graduate level in sport tourism, as well as notable increases in PhD theses with sport tourism related themes and perspectives. This commentary presents a synthesized critical evaluation on my research publications and their impact upon the developments of sport tourism detailed above. The ten publications chosen have come from both journals and book chapters, and are a blend of conceptual and empirical studies. Whilst the majority of the published are conceptual in nature the methodology adopted in the empirical studies have ranged from qualitatively driven research using in-depth interviews and observational methods – to more quantitatively driven studies which implemented questionnaire and document analyses. The case is made that the evaluated published works have both collectively contributed to the knowledge in the areas of sport tourist motivation with particular reference to nostalgia and heritage. More specifically, the synthesis demonstrates that the selected studies have contributed in laying the foundations of sport tourism by introducing and explaining the synergistic relationship between the two concepts of sport and tourism, as well as identifying definitive sport tourism markets – and doing so providing unique insights into the distinct sport and tourism-related services and experiences required by each. Furthermore, not only do the published works introduce, define and categorise for the first time the concept of heritage sport tourism but also offer the first empirical studies on the experience and design of sport stadium tours. Collectively, the papers are regularly referred to in the literature and, as a consequence, continue to stir debate and further research in the area which, in turn, will contribute to the general advancement of sport tourism.
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Trúchly, Marek. "Analýza obchodovania s Futures." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2010. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-73784.
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The final thesis will focus on explanation of basic knowledge regarding futures contracts trading and possible ways of trading them as the basis for the analytical part. Analytical part is based on real-time trading of stock, currency, index and commodity futures during several days and intraday trading. In several time periods we will focus on the results of portfolio made by these futures traded on american stock markets. In the end we will compare the results of trading with the opportunity cost of the investor and evaluate his behavior on the futures market.
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Schultz, Tristan. "Decolonising Design: Mapping Futures." Thesis, Griffith University, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/386318.
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This thesis expands upon design theories and methods for understanding and speculating
futures. New perspectives on participatory design techniques combined with Indigenous
approaches to knowledge production are presented as experiments of decolonising futures
through creative critical mapping practices. Informed by my Australian Aboriginal and European
ancestry, I outline the practice-led research including ways for readers to apply the creative
experiments, provided in a series of reflections and appendix guides. I ask what might be an
appropriate way of enabling people to map options for their futures. I consider how one might
create a design practice that collaborates with people intent on navigating decolonising options.
The research reveals strategies for decolonising the self, one’s practice and design. It
demonstrates the designing of effective modes of listening, articulating and communicating with
people about plural options for their futures.
The thesis theoretically develops a critical lens on modernity and colonialism, particularly
detailing how continuing and emerging conditions of coloniality debilitate Indigenous peoples’
ability to transition to decolonising futures. It then provides methodologies for a practice of
decolonising mapping in which one’s relationship with modernity and coloniality can be
understood. The creative experiments apply these methodologies in educational, arts-based,
community-based and other event-based and organisational settings. These diverse settings
demonstrate a spectrum of new strategic combinations of, for example, Aboriginal yarning,
relational mapping, design fiction, plausibility and futures thinking and concept articulation
tactics in strategic sessions, participatory workshops, major public arts events, an interactive
website and other environments and mediums. The work contributes not only to scholarship in
design research, studies, thinking and education, but also beyond the broad design community
to policymakers, government, organisational management and other community and social
groups who are looking to think about, talk about, and mobilise futures. The practice in this
research should be understood as creative experiments, not as ‘proof of commercialisation’ or
‘product’ designs. The primary focus of this qualitative research contribution is on
experimentation, creative insight, iteration and reflection of how mapping with people in situated
contexts can occur, rather than what has been articulated. Experiments in this research all
occurred in Australia, mostly in South-East Queensland. Archived evidence of the creative
practice is represented with photos and graphics integrated throughout the document chapters
and in a comprehensive appendix. The implications of this research are that it contributes to
redirecting the locus of design from a service provision activity towards a rapidly emerging
critical design field. This thesis exhibits a unique theoretical, methodological and creative body
of work of critical mapping as an articulatory design practice.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Queensland College of Art
Arts, Education and Law
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Firch, Robert S. "Inverted Cotton Futures Markets." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/203915.
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Fredriksson, Joel, and Andreas Kristoffersson. "Moderna hävstångsinstrument : En studie av Mini Futures framtid på den svenska marknaden." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Ekonomihögskolan, ELNU, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-18976.
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Det har skett en nästintill explosionsartad utveckling på den svenska marknaden för hävstångsinstrument under de senaste åren och en mängd nya produktinnovationer och emittenter har dykt upp. Handeln med Mini Futures är väl utbredd i Europa där det funnits under en längre tid, och produkten lanserades för några år sedan på den svenska marknaden. Syftet med denna uppsats är att kartlägga både emittenter och konsumenters syn på Mini Futures och analysera om dessa hävstångsinstrument är lämpliga för vanliga småsparare. Likaså vill vi undersöka produktens potential och hur framtidsutsikterna kan se ut på den svenska marknaden. Vi har genomfört en kvalitativ studie där vi intervjuat personer som arbetar med eller i nära anknytning till handeln med hävstångsinstrument. Studien har även kompletterats med en kvantitativ enkätundersökning för att lyfta in investerarnas perspektiv. Respondenterna bestod av medlemmar i Unga Aktiesparare som vi anser de intresse som krävs för att kunna ge trovärdiga svar. Då Mini Futures är en relativt ny produkt är forskningen inom området högst begränsad. Vi har därför byggt upp vår teoretiska referensram med teorier som påverkar börshandeln i allmänhet, bland annat börspsykologi, risker och portföljteori. För att kunna förstå moderna investerarbeteenden har vi också tagit med en del forskning om generation Y. I vår analys har vi vävt ihop våra informanters röster med resultaten från vår enkätundersökning samt sökt stöd i den teoretiska referensramen. Detta har sedan analyserats utifrån valda områden: Risk och möjlighet, Hävstång i portföljen, Kunskap och marknadsföring, Förutsättningar för emittenternas val samt Framtid och utveckling. I de slutsatser som presenteras i uppsatsen berör vi bland annat hur sparandet i Mini Futures bör förhålla sig till traditionellt sparande, för vilka personer som det inte är lämpligt att handla med Mini Futures, i vilket syfte produkten kan användas samt hur utvecklingen kommer se ut på den svenska marknaden. Avslutningsvis ger vi rekommendationer på framtida forskning inom området.There has been a boom on the Swedish market for leveraged products and a whole new set of product innovations and issuers have emerged. Trading in Mini Futures is widely spread in Europe and the product was launched on the Swedish market a few years ago. The purpose of this paper is to identify both issuers and consumers' views on Mini Futures and analyze if these leveraged products are suitable for small time investors. Also, we want to explore the potential of the product and what future prospects look like on the Swedish market. We conducted a qualitative study where we interviewed people who work in close association with, and have a vast knowledge of, leveraged instruments. In order to raise the investor’s perspective we have also supplemented this study with a quantitative survey. The respondents consisted of members from the Young Shareholders Association which we consider have a good awareness of the market. Mini Futures is a relatively new product and research in this field is very limited. Therefore we had to build our theoretical framework with theories that affect the stock market in general. For example stock market psychology, risk and portfolio theory. In order to understand modern investor behavior, we also included some research on Generation Y. In the analysis, we combine the empirical research results with the results of the survey and sought support from the theoretical framework. This was then analyzed from selected areas Risk and opportunity, Leverage in the portfolio, Knowledge and marketing, Conditions for the issuers´s choice, Future options and development. The conclusions presented in this paper concerns how the savings in Mini Futures should relate to traditional savings, which individuals are not appropriate to trade with Mini Futures, for which purposes the product can be used and how the future development will look like on the Swedish market. Finally, we give recommendations for future research in the area.
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Stultz, Bailey E. "Mnemonic Futures: Exploring the future of place-based memory in post-industrial landscapes." University of Cincinnati / OhioLINK, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ucin1522340029293925.
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Huang, He. "Macroeconomic news effects in commodity futures and German stock and bond futures markets." Lohmar Eul, 2009. http://d-nb.info/1000781631/04.
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Balnaves, Peter M. "The success and failure of futures contracts." Thesis, This resource online, 1990. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-03122009-040713/.
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Alampieski, Kiril. "The impact of a tick size reduction in Futures Markets: evidence from the Sydney Futures Exchange." Thesis, Finance, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/2212.
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This dissertation examines the impact of a reduction in the minimum price increment on market quality and price impact in the 3 Year Commonwealth Treasury Bond Futures contract. Prior to the tick size reduction, the minimum tick was one basis point. However, as of December 15, 2006, the minimum price increment was reduced to half a basis point. Using two data sets, the first provided by SIRCA and the second a proprietary data set provided by the Sydney Futures Exchange, this study is the first to examine how a reduction in minimum tick affects both market quality and price impact in a futures market setting. This thesis contributes to, and extends, the literature on minimum tick size reductions in several ways. First, this thesis extends the tick size literature into futures markets. Second, the proprietary data set allows an analysis of how the reduction in tick size affects the price impact of institutional trade packages. Finally, this dissertation is the first tick size study to consider both the seasonality in bond futures trading as well as the virtual round-the-clock trading of futures. Results indicate that bid-ask spreads and quoted depth are significantly reduced after the tick reduction. While the price impact of small trades is insignificantly different from zero in all periods examined, after the tick size reduction, large trade packages experience reductions in price impact. These findings suggest that overall market quality has improved after the reduction in minimum tick. The improvements in market quality are isolated to the 3 year bond futures contract, with minimal variations in control contracts. Robustness tests isolate market quality improvements to the 3 year bond futures and attribute the improvement to the reduction in minimum tick.Finance
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Keyser, Johannes de Kock. "The relationship between futures prices and expected future spot prices : some South African evidence." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/53155.
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Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2002.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: A unique data set consisting of economists' expectations on key economic indicators was examined within the context of the controversial normal backwardation theory of Keynes. The economists' expectations were regarded as the expected future spot price and the relationship between them and the corresponding futures contracts was analysed. The respective economic indicators were: i) the yield from aparastatal Bond, ii) the yield from Government Bonds, iii) the rate of the 90 day Banker's Acceptance (BA) Deposit Rate and iv) the Rand/Dollar (R/$) Exchange Rate for the past seven years, i.e. 1995 to 2001. The accuracy of the economists' predictions was tested both on a visual basis and the relationship between the expected values and the futures prices was plotted in a graphical format. A nonparametric statistical procedure was used to determine whether the economists' expectations were of any value. To put it differently, the question being posed is: do these economists, as a group, possess some superior forecasting skills? Two different conclusions were reached from the analysis: First conclusion: by accepting the normal backwardation theory, it implies that the contango theory also holds. Therefore, when analysing the data set visually - depending on which theory it supports - the futures price must trade consistently below or above the expected future spot price. For this particular analysis the yield of the bond, and not its price, was the important factor. In most cases the plotted relationships between the expected values and the futures prices were found to support the contango theory and, to a lesser extent, the normal backwardation theory. Hence, speculators were, in order to make profits, predominately sellers of futures contracts. Second conclusion: the strongest conclusion, however, follows from the statistical tests conducted on the expected values. It was found that economists do possess some superior forecasting skills and if they had used their predictions and had taken the corresponding market positions, they would have been consistent winners in the futures market. Their reward would be mainly for their ability to forecast eventual spot prices and, to a lesser extent, for their risk bearing. It was impossible to link the two conclusions to confirm the normal backwardation theory, for the particular South African data set. The evidence is thus consistent with the hypothesis that the futures price is an unbiased estimate of the expected future spot price.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: 'n Unieke datastel, bestaande uit ekonome se vooruitsigte van kern ekonomiese aanwysers, is ondersoek binne die konteks van die omstrede normale terugwaardasie-teorie (d.i. "normal backwardation theory") van Keynes. Die ekonome se vooruitsigte is aanvaar as die verwagte toekomstige kontantprys en die verhouding hiertussen en die ooreenstemmende termynpryse is ontleed. Die onderskeie ekonomiese aanwysers was: i) die opbrengs op 'n Semi-Staatseffek, ii) die opbrengs op Staatseffekte, iii) die koers van die negentig-dae-Bankaksepte (BA) Depositokoers en iv) die Rand/Dollar (R/$) Wisselkoers oor die afgelope sewe jaar, d.w.s. 1995 tot 2001. Die akkuraatheid van die ekonome se vooruitskattings is op 'n visuele basis vergelyk, en die verhouding tussen die verwagte prys en die termynpryse is in grafiese formaat gekarteer. 'n Nie-parametriese statistiese prosedure is gebruik om vas te stel of hierdie ekonome se vooruitsigte van enige waarde was. Anders gestel, die vraag is: beskik hierdie ekonome as 'n groep oor sekere superieure vooruitskattingsvaardighede? Die volgende twee afsonderlike gevolgtrekkings is geformuleer: Eerste gevolgtrekking: deur die normale terugwaardasie-teorie te aanvaar, impliseer dit dat die contango-teorie (d.i, "contango theory") ook geldig is. Dus, wanneer die datastel visueel getoets word - afhangende van watter teorie dit ondersteun - moet die termynprys konsekwent bo of onder die verwagte toekomstige kontantprys verhandel. Vir hierdie bepaalde analise was die opbrengs van die staatseffek die belangrike faktor en nié die prys daarvan nie. In die meeste gevalle het die gekarteerde verhouding tussen die verwagte prys en die termynprys getoon dat dit die contango-teorie ondersteun het en, in 'n mindere mate, die normale terugwaardasie-teorie. Derhalwe was spekulante, ten einde wins te maak, oorwegend die verkopers van termynkontrakte. Tweede gevolgtrekking: die belangrikste gevolgtrekking volg egter uit die statistiese toetse wat uitgevoer is op die verwagte pryse. Daar is bevind dat ekonome wel oor superieure vooruitskattingsvaardighede beskik en dat, indien hulle hul vooruitskattings gebruik en die ooreenstemmende markposisies ingeneem het, hulle konsekwent wenners in die termynmark sou gewees het. Hulle vergoedings sou hoofsaaklik gewees het vir hulle vermoë om uiteindelike kontantpryse te voorspel en, in 'n mindere mate, vir hulle risiko-blootstelling. Dit was onmoontlik om hierdie twee vergelykings met mekaar te verbind om sodoende die normale terugwaardasie-teorie te onderskryf vir die betrokke Suid-Afrikaanse datastel. Die bewyslewering is dus konsekwent met die hipotese dat die termynprys 'n onsydige skatting van die verwagte toekomstige kontantprys is.
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Knapp, James W. "Should the Department of Defense hedge oil prices in order to save money?" Monterey, Calif. : Naval Postgraduate School, 2008. http://bosun.nps.edu/uhtbin/hyperion-image.exe/08Mar%5FKnapp%5FMBA.pdf.
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"Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business Administration from the Naval Postgraduate School, March 2008."Advisor(s): Hudgens, Bryan ; Dew, Nicholas. "March 2008." "MBA professional report"--Cover. Description based on title screen as viewed on May 7, 2008. Includes bibliographical references (p. 45-48). Also available in print.
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Tomčiak, Boris. "Úloha Managed Futures pri správe investičného portfólia." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-71972.
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This thesis is focused on Managed Futures, which is one of alternative investment instruments. Even though its popularity in developed countries rises, it is a rarity in Czech financial market. The main intent is to clarify specifications, historical roots, legal framework and other characteristic aspects. Part of the work will be devoted to the analysis of performance, risk, correlation with other investments and the possibility of inclusion in a portfolio of experienced Czech investor.
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PENG, XUE, and YU FANG. "Futures-Spot Arbitrage of Stock Index Futures in China : Empirical Study on Arbitrage Strategy." Thesis, Umeå University, Umeå School of Business, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-34919.
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The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate what is the optimal futures-spot arbitrage strategy for China‘s stock index futures investment. Specifically, Index replication method and no-arbitrage pricing model are examined. We compare the different combinations of ETFs portfolio in mainland China with W.I.S.E-CSI 300 ETF in Hong Kong in three aspects including liquidity level, correlation of ETFs with underlying index, and tracking error of the replication methods. Then, we add several new parameters into interval pricing model to obtain a more accurate no-arbitrage band. As a result, we found that the portfolio of SSE 50 ETF, SZSE 100 ETF, and SSE Bonus ETF could provide the best tracking effect of CSI 300 Index, with different weight as 0.369, 0.403, and 0.19 in turn separately. Furthermore, the new modified pricing model could find out more arbitrage opportunities than interval pricing model especially for reverse cash-and-carry arbitrage. On the whole, the optimal arbitrage strategy for investment on CSI 300 Index futures consist of two steps, implement ETFs portfolio replicate CSI 300 Index and using new modified pricing model to discover and define arbitrage opportunities then to apply futures-spot arbitrage. At the end of thesis, we also give a small case study to illustrate how to exercise the arbitrage strategy in realistic situation.
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Pereira, Camila Monteiro. "Imagining Alternative Futures: ethnography through critical and speculative design workshops." Master's thesis, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10316/92543.
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Antropologia Social e Cultural apresentada à Faculdade de Ciências e TecnologiaO presente trabalho é uma etnografia das práticas de imaginação de futuros em oficinas de design crítico especulativo. Meu trabalho de campo, portanto foi realizado em três distintas oficinas de design crítico e especulativo. Esses eventos ocorreram no ano de 2019 em três países diferentes sendo que um ocorreu em Portugal. Esta pesquisa trata o futuro não como um destino limitado pelas impossibilidades do presente, mas de arranjos distintos e possíveis, nos quais a noção de ‘temporalidades espontâneas’ (livre tradução do termo ‘eventful temporalities’ de Savransky et al., 2017: 7) nos é de grande ajuda. O foco é em como a antropologia pode engajar-se com construções de mundos futuros. Este trabalho também é uma tentativa de experimentar com a antropologia design e a antropologia para o futuro, onde as antropólogas não apenas observam e descrevem o que já está a acontecer como também intervém e colaboram para a catalisação do que pode vir a ser. Eu afirmo que a crise contemporânea do Antropoceno traz novos e complexos problemas que demandam um entendimento diferenciado da agencialidade humana. O argumento principal é que, como o design tornou-se um lugar de mudança e produção cultural nas sociedades modernas (Miller, 2018), a prática do design crítico e especulativo surge como um canal disruptivo e um lugar onde é possível desafiar a presente crise de imaginação. Por essa razão, o presente trabalho entende que o design crítico e especulativo pode exercer um papel importante na exploração, no campo subjetivo, de futuros alternativos. Entretanto, para esse papel ser satisfatório, as práticas de imaginação de futuros pelo design crítico e especulativo deve examinar criticamente suas metodologias e abrir suas práticas e espaços para uma colaboração mais ampla e interdisciplinar.
The present work is an ethnography of future imagining practices in critical and speculative design workshops. My fieldwork is based on three distinct critical and speculative design workshops. All three events took place in 2019 in three different countries including one in Portugal. This research addresses the future not as a destination limited to the impossibilities of the present but as a space of distinct, possible arrangements, for which the notion of ‘eventful temporalities’ (Savransky et al., 2017: 7) is helpful. The focus is on how anthropology can engage with future world making. This work is also an attempt at experimenting with anthropology design and future anthropology, where anthropologists not only observe and describe what is already there but intervene and collaborate to catalyse what could be. I state that the contemporary crisis of the Anthropocene brings new and complex issues that demands a different understanding of human agency. The main argument is that, as design becomes a significant site for cultural change and production in modern societies (Miller, 2018), the practice of critical and speculative design emerges as a disruptive channel and a place for defying the present crises of imagination. For this reason, the present work understands that critical and speculative design could play an important role in exploring alternative futures subjectively. However, for this role to be satisfactory, the practice of future imagining through critical and speculative design should critically examine its methodologies and open its practices and spaces to a broader and more interdisciplinary collaboration.
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Chen, Yu-Cheng, and 陳俞成. "Forecasting Future Exchange Rates by Currency Futures." Thesis, 2018. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/43fk7d.
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陳文全. "Price Discovery in Taiwan Index Futures, Financial futures, and Electronic Futures." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/vz2rcu.
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碩士銘傳大學
風險管理與統計資訊研究所碩士班
92
This paper uses Granger causality to investigate price discovery in three Taiwan index futures markets: TAIFEX Taiwan index futures, Electronic Futures, and Financial Futures. Another purpose is to test that does there have any arbitrage opportunity? Per minute intraday data for the three futures and the index are used in this study. The research data is from 2003/2/6 to 2003/3/31. In this paper, we demonstrate all data by unit roots test, AIC test, Granger causality test. Empirical results indicate that all series data are stationary with unit root test. In 2 months, Using lag length 21 is the best choice to predict the other variable in TAIFEX Taiwan index futures market, 26 in financial futures market, and 20 in electronic futures market. We also find that all spot index and futures have bi-direction Granger causality using synchronized data. Finally, this study finds that there are 6 times arbitrate opportunities in TAIFEX Taiwan index futures market. There are 8 times arbitrate opportunities in financial futures market and electronic futures market respectively.
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Murata, Takuya. "A futures studies approach to Japan's futures." Thesis, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/10125/20840.
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"China futures market." Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5888641.
Full textAbstract:
by Au Kar Oi, Karen, Wong Hak Chi.Thesis (M.B.A.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1996.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-59).
ABSTRACT --- p.i
TABLE OF CONTENTS --- p.iii
LIST OF FIGURES --- p.v
LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.vii
Chapter
Chapter I. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Objectives --- p.1
Chapter II. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.3
Chapter III. --- ENVIRONMENT OF CHINA --- p.4
Area and population --- p.4
Economic Overview --- p.4
National Resources and Energy Production --- p.8
Foreign Investment --- p.8
Legal System --- p.9
Chapter IV --- BACKGROUND INFORMATION OF FUTURES MARKET --- p.11
History of Futures Market in the World --- p.11
Functions of Futures Market --- p.12
Hedging --- p.12
Speculating --- p.12
Arbritaging --- p.12
Structure of Futures Market --- p.13
Traders --- p.13
Futures Exchange --- p.13
Futures Brokage House --- p.13
Futures Clearing House --- p.14
Futures Guarantor --- p.14
Chapter V. --- REASONS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF CHINA FUTURES MARKET --- p.15
International Economic Development --- p.15
Rapid change in the world economy --- p.15
Trend of the development of futures exchange --- p.16
Risk diversification --- p.17
Local Economic Development --- p.17
Free-market economy enables the development of the futures market --- p.17
Financial reform stimulates the development of the futures market --- p.19
Chapter VI. --- CHARATERISTICS OF MARKET --- p.20
Contractal Basis --- p.20
Credit System --- p.20
Speculative Nature --- p.21
Uniquness of the Chinese Market --- p.21
Chapter VII --- THE ZHENGZHOU EXPERIENCE IN THE EARLY DAYS --- p.23
Grain Trading in China --- p.24
Operation --- p.25
Results --- p.25
Problems of the Exchange during the first two years --- p.28
Chapter VIII --- RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN CHINA FUTURES MARKET --- p.31
China Bond Futures Scandal --- p.33
Cease of Red bean futures trading in Suzhou Commodity Exchange --- p.35
Regulatory interventions --- p.36
Chapter IX --- PROBLEMS IN THE FUTURES MARKET IN CHINA --- p.39
Price Reform .................……… --- p.40
Shrinking and duplication of contracts --- p.41
Frequent Forced liquidation --- p.42
Exchanges --- p.43
Exchange Members --- p.44
Market Players ....................………………… --- p.44
Futures Contract ...........................….… --- p.45
Brokerages --- p.45
Hot Money --- p.46
Enterprise Reform --- p.47
Chapter X. --- PROSPECTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS IN DEVELOPMENT OF FUTURES MARKET IN CHINA --- p.49
Curb speculation and court more hedgers --- p.49
Strengthen Market Regulations --- p.52
Avoid Unnecessary Competition --- p.53
Develop the underlying spot market --- p.55
Chapter XI. --- CONCLUSION --- p.56
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.57
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HUANG, KE-CHIN, and 黃克勤. "Strategy of Spread Trading on Futures and Taiwan 50 ETF: Using TAIEX Futures, Electronic Sector Index Futures, Finance Sector Index Futures." Thesis, 2017. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/4m9g4q.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
金融系金融資訊碩士班
105
Taiwan financial market becomes international, and the category of financial products also increases rapidly. Because the regulation of stock futures was reformed, stock futures achieve advantages on trading market that can replace limitation of stock market. Since stock futures continue growing, stock futures becomes popular investment target on spread trading. Spread trading means when two related products have unreasonable price spread, investors make two positions that buy low price product and meanwhile sell high price product. They will close out positions and gain profit until the price spread of two products becomes balanced condition. The paper uses the price data of Taiwan futures, electronic futures, financial futures and Taiwan 50 ETF. These data are highly correlated between each other such that the spread will change with the price. The study uses spread strategy between futures spot price and futures prices, and uses the least squares method to calculate the optimal transaction ratio, and establish different spreads combinations by means of Bollinger bands to examine whether the combinations present phenomenon of spread and hidden risk arbitrage. We also investigate the performance of futures-spot spread in the different scenarios. During the sample period, the pairs with TAIEX Index Futures and Taiwan Top 50 ETF had the best performance. In the test sample data, one month was higher than one year in the standard deviation.
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Becker, Madeline. "Lonely Futures?" 2020. https://ul.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A73162.
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HSIANG, CHEN， HUEI, and 陳惠香. "Price Expectation and Futures Pricing:Evidence from the Finance Sector Index Futures and Single Stock Futures." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/93d9gd.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立高雄科技大學
金融系
107
This thesis uses the TWIFEX (Taiwan Futures Exchange) finance sector index futures and single stock futures to compare the pricing performance of the cost of carry and the price expectation models. Additionally, this thesis also compares (1) the difference in pricing performance between the financial sector index futures and single stock futures; (2) the difference in pricing performance between the near month and far month contracts; (3) the difference in pricing performance between the early and late stages of the empirical period. The empirical findings of this thesis are as follows： (1)The price expectation model has better pricing performance for the finance sector index futures, but the cost of carry model has better pricing performance for the finance sector stock futures. (2)For financial index futures, the pricing performance of the near month contracts is better than that of the far month contracts. (3)As time passes, market efficiency has improved. Therefore, whether using the cost of carry model or the price expectation model, compared with the early stage of the empirical period, there is better pricing performance in the late stage of the empirical period.
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Chan, Nai-Ching, and 詹乃磬. "A Model of Index Futures Manipulation with TAIEX Futures." Thesis, 2005. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/77166896792834136260.
Full textAbstract:
碩士國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
93
The spot markets are often reported to be very volatile in the final settlement day or expiration day of the futures. The volatility is mostly due to manipulation. To examine the ways in which large traders make profit by manipulation, this article establishes the model of futures manipulation with the TAIEX Futures. This model demonstrates the strategies which the manipulators will take and whether manipulation is worth it or not (i.e does the large trader earn positive expected profits by establishing a futures position and then trading in the spot markets to manipulate the spot price). If there is one manipulator in the markets, we find that the difference of the optimal quantity of each stock is their outstanding shares. We also show that the capital distribution on stocks is not only determined by the weight but also by the basic price and market depth and what will happen when the manipulator increases his futures positions by an example. Furthermore, to adjust the model to fit the real world, we add the other trading volume of the stock markets and restructure the model under the uncertain state. Finally, this article provides another example for the model with the other trading volume and presents the importance of the monopoly power.
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Su, Chung-Wei, and 蘇仲徽. "The Analysis of Stock Index Futures inTaiwan Futures Exchange." Thesis, 2000. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/73122044882982256876.
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CHEN, WEI-HAN, and 陳威翰. "Research in Futures Price Discovery:Evidence from International Futures Markets." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/83369664380847110751.
Full textAbstract:
碩士世新大學
財務金融學研究所(含碩專班)
104
This paper is based on the data of future and spot for US., DE., Jp., HK., and TW.. investigate the price discovery role. The data was measured from January 5, 2012 to December 30, 2015 every day. The tools apply ADF Unit Root Test, Vector Autoregression (VAR) Models, Impulse - Response Analysis and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to examine the price discovery function and the relationship between futures and spot. The conclusion can be summarized as follows: (1) Futures and spot exist a co-integration relationship from ADF Unit Root Test； (2) Estimated coefficients of the vector error correction model suggest that price adjustment takes place in the index futures of US., DE., JP.,and TW.. (3) For impulse response function, the auto variance extent has more innovation effects in the futures vs. spot. This conclusion provide a information to the investment one that future index could be seen as a leader, besides, it could be seen as a hedge tool for people.
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Tsai, Chun-Min, and 蔡俊旻. "The Expiration-Date Effects of Index Futures: Evidence From TAIEX Futures And Weekly Mini-TAIEX Futures." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/48s86b.
Full textAbstract:
碩士元智大學
財務金融暨會計碩士班(財務金融學程)
107
Given that traders realize the convergence between the stock prices of futures and spot market, leading to a large number of buy and sell trades instantly on the expiration date before settlement by applying cash settlement policy in futures market. Accordingly, the lack of liquidity in the market may be triggered by rapid trading involving entering and exiting the market. That is, we can notice price impacts from the spot market with unusual trading volumes and prices existing, which can be defined as Expiration-Day Effects. This study is aim to focus on analysis of three types of investors in the market, including hedgers, speculators and arbitrageurs and employing market spread in stocks and futures, foreign investors’ net buy and net sell, open interest volume and ratio, and bullish/bearish attitudes towards stock index five different variables indicating trading status in the markets to explore the effect between trading behavior on TAIEX futures and Weekly Mini-TAIEX futures respectively. Further, we attempt to investigate the Expiration-Date Effects and traders’ strategies in market through the relationship between rate of return of futures on the expiration date, price impacts and price reversal in spot market, so as to gain a better understanding on the main reason of the Expiration-Date Effects. Based on the results of five empirical models established in this paper, the trading strategies of speculators and foreign institutional investors (hedgers) in the market are the main causes of price anomalies on the expiration date of the TAIEX futures. When the foreign institutional investors are net buyers in the spot market on the maturity date, it is very likely that speculators and foreign institutional investors intend to manipulate the stock index to a high level in order to profit from futures position. Moreover, the stock index shows a significant drop on the next day of settlement date, bring the market back to the average benchmark, and vice versa.