Journal articles on the topic 'Future climate information'
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Tierney, Jessica E., Christopher J. Poulsen, Isabel P. Montañez, Tripti Bhattacharya, Ran Feng, Heather L. Ford, Bärbel Hönisch, et al. "Past climates inform our future." Science 370, no. 6517 (November 5, 2020): eaay3701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aay3701.
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As the world warms, there is a profound need to improve projections of climate change. Although the latest Earth system models offer an unprecedented number of features, fundamental uncertainties continue to cloud our view of the future. Past climates provide the only opportunity to observe how the Earth system responds to high carbon dioxide, underlining a fundamental role for paleoclimatology in constraining future climate change. Here, we review the relevancy of paleoclimate information for climate prediction and discuss the prospects for emerging methodologies to further insights gained from past climates. Advances in proxy methods and interpretations pave the way for the use of past climates for model evaluation—a practice that we argue should be widely adopted.
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Moss, Richard H. "Improving information for managing an uncertain future climate." Global Environmental Change 17, no. 1 (February 2007): 4–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.12.002.
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Grainger, Sam, Suraje Dessai, Joseph Daron, Andrea Taylor, and Yim Ling Siu. "Using expert elicitation to strengthen future regional climate information for climate services." Climate Services 26 (April 2022): 100278. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100278.
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Belda, Michal, Petr Skalák, Aleš Farda, Tomáš Halenka, Michel Déqué, Gabriella Csima, Judit Bartholy, et al. "CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal." Advances in Meteorology 2015 (2015): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/354727.
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Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3°C in the first period and 2 and 5°C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to −1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.
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McSweeney, Carol F., Richard G. Jones, and Ben B. B. Booth. "Selecting Ensemble Members to Provide Regional Climate Change Information." Journal of Climate 25, no. 20 (May 18, 2012): 7100–7121. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00526.1.
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Abstract Climate model ensembles, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), are used to characterize broadscale ranges of projected regional climate change and their impacts. The 17-member Hadley Centre perturbed physics GCM ensemble [Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (“QUMP”)] extends this capability by including data enabling dynamical downscaling of these ranges, and similar data are now being made available from the CMIP phase 5 (CMIP5) GCMs. These raise new opportunities to provide and apply high-resolution regional climate projections. This study highlights the importance of employing a well-considered sampling strategy from available ensembles to provide scientifically credible information on regional climate change while minimizing the computational complexity of ensemble downscaling. A subset of the QUMP ensemble is selected for a downscaling program in Vietnam using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional climate modeling system. Multiannual mean fields from each GCM are assessed with a focus on the Asian summer monsoon, given its importance to proposed applications of the projections. First, the study examines whether any model should be eliminated because significant deficiencies in its simulation may render its future climate projections unrealistic. No evidence is found to eliminate any of the 17 GCMs on these grounds. Second, the range of their future projections is explored and five models that best represent the full range of future climates are identified. The subset characterizes the range of both global and regional responses, and patterns of rainfall response, the wettest and driest projections for Vietnam, and different projected Asian summer monsoon changes. How these ranges of responses compare with those in the CMIP3 ensemble are also assessed, finding differences in both the signal and the spread of results in Southeast Asia.
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Lunt, D. J., H. Elderfield, R. Pancost, A. Ridgwell, G. L. Foster, A. Haywood, J. Kiehl, et al. "Warm climates of the past—a lesson for the future?" Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 371, no. 2001 (October 28, 2013): 20130146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0146.
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This Discussion Meeting Issue of the Philosophical Transactions A had its genesis in a Discussion Meeting of the Royal Society which took place on 10–11 October 2011. The Discussion Meeting, entitled ‘Warm climates of the past: a lesson for the future?’, brought together 16 eminent international speakers from the field of palaeoclimate, and was attended by over 280 scientists and members of the public. Many of the speakers have contributed to the papers compiled in this Discussion Meeting Issue. The papers summarize the talks at the meeting, and present further or related work. This Discussion Meeting Issue asks to what extent information gleaned from the study of past climates can aid our understanding of future climate change. Climate change is currently an issue at the forefront of environmental science, and also has important sociological and political implications. Most future predictions are carried out by complex numerical models; however, these models cannot be rigorously tested for scenarios outside of the modern, without making use of past climate data. Furthermore, past climate data can inform our understanding of how the Earth system operates, and can provide important contextual information related to environmental change. All past time periods can be useful in this context; here, we focus on past climates that were warmer than the modern climate, as these are likely to be the most similar to the future. This introductory paper is not meant as a comprehensive overview of all work in this field. Instead, it gives an introduction to the important issues therein, using the papers in this Discussion Meeting Issue, and other works from all the Discussion Meeting speakers, as exemplars of the various ways in which past climates can inform projections of future climate. Furthermore, we present new work that uses a palaeo constraint to quantitatively inform projections of future equilibrium ice sheet change.
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Davis, Corey, Heather Aldridge, Ryan Boyles, Karen S. McNeal, Lindsay Maudlin, and Rachel Atkins. "Visually Communicating Future Climate in a Web Environment." Weather, Climate, and Society 12, no. 4 (October 2020): 877–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-19-0152.1.
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AbstractWhile there is growing demand for use of climate model projections to understand the potential impacts of future climate on resources, there is a lack of effective visuals that convey the range of possible climates across spatial scales and with uncertainties that potential users need to inform their impact assessments and studies. We use usability testing including eye tracking to explore how a group of resource professionals (foresters) interpret and understand a series of graphical representations of future climate change, housed within a web-based decision support system (DSS), that address limitations identified in other tools. We find that a three-map layout effectively communicates the spread of future climate projections spatially, that location-specific information is effectively communicated if depicted both spatially on a map and temporally on a time series plot, and that model error metrics may be useful for communicating uncertainty and in demonstrating the utility of these future climate datasets.
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Gaur, Abhishek, and Michael Lacasse. "Climate Data to Support the Adaptation of Buildings to Climate Change in Canada." Data 7, no. 4 (April 6, 2022): 42. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/data7040042.
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Climate change will continue to bring about unprecedented climate extremes in the future, and buildings and infrastructure will be exposed to such conditions. To ensure that new and existing buildings deliver satisfactory performance over their design lives, their performance under current and future projected climates needs to be assessed by undertaking building simulations. This study prepares climate data needed for building simulations for 564 locations by bias-correcting the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 4 (CanRCM4) large ensemble (LE) simulations with reference to observations. Technical validation results show that bias-correction effectively reduces the bias associated with CanRCM4-LE simulations in terms of their marginal distributions and the inter-relationship between climate variables. To ensure that the range of projected climate change impacts are encompassed within these data sets, and to furthermore provide building moisture and energy reference years, the reference year files were prepared from bias-corrected CanRCM4-LE simulations and are comprised of a typical meteorological year for building energy applications, a typical and extreme moisture reference year, a typical downscaled year, an extreme warm year, and an extreme cold year.
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Linderholm, H. W., J. A. Björklund, K. Seftigen, B. E. Gunnarson, I. Drobyshev, J. H. Jeong, P. Stridbeck, and Y. Liu. "Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potentials." Climate of the Past Discussions 5, no. 3 (May 19, 2009): 1415–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cpd-5-1415-2009.
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Abstract. Dendroclimatology, i.e. using tree-ring data to reconstruct past climates, in Fennoscandia has a strong tradition. Due to the high-latitude location of the region, trees are sensitive to climate; in general to temperatures during summer. However, a strong gradient from the oceanic west to the continental east, makes it possible to find trees that respond to other parameters, such as precipitation and drought. Situated in a sparsely populated part of the Boreal belt, Fennoscandia with its large areas of old-growth forests is suitable for constructing tree-ring chronologies reaching far back in time. Indeed, some of the world longest tree-ring chronologies are found in the region, covering all, or most of, the Holocene. In addition to providing valuable information about regional climate variability during the Holocene, tree-ring data have played significant roles in recent reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperatures as well as large-scale circulation patterns. Here we review the field of dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia, showing the wealth of climate information obtained from various tree-ring parameters (ring widths, density and stable isotopes), and look in to future possibilities.
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Brewington, Laura, Victoria Keener, and Alan Mair. "Simulating Land Cover Change Impacts on Groundwater Recharge under Selected Climate Projections, Maui, Hawaiʻi." Remote Sensing 11, no. 24 (December 17, 2019): 3048. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs11243048.
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This project developed an integrated land cover/hydrological modeling framework using remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) data, stakeholder input, climate information and projections, and empirical data to estimate future groundwater recharge on the Island of Maui, Hawaiʻi, USA. End-of-century mean annual groundwater recharge was estimated under four future land cover scenarios: Future 1 (conservation-focused), Future 2 (status-quo), Future 3 (development-focused), and Future 4 (balanced conservation and development), and two downscaled climate projections: a coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 “dry climate” future and a CMIP3 A1B “wet climate” future. Results were compared to recharge estimated using the 2017 baseline land cover to understand how changing land management and climate could influence groundwater recharge. Estimated recharge increased island-wide under all future land cover and climate combinations and was dominated by specific land cover transitions. For the dry future climate, recharge for land cover Futures 1 to 4 increased by 12%, 0.7%, 0.01%, and 11% relative to 2017 land cover conditions, respectively. Corresponding increases under the wet future climate were 10%, 0.9%, 0.6%, and 9.3%. Conversion from fallow/grassland to diversified agriculture increased irrigation, and therefore recharge. Above the cloud zone (610 m), conversion from grassland to native or alien forest led to increased fog interception, which increased recharge. The greatest changes to recharge occurred in Futures 1 and 4 in areas where irrigation increased, and where forest expanded within the cloud zone. Furthermore, new future urban expansion is currently slated for coastal areas that are already water-stressed and had low recharge projections. This study demonstrated that a spatially-explicit scenario planning process and modeling framework can communicate the possible consequences and tradeoffs of land cover change under a changing climate, and the outputs from this study serve as relevant tools for landscape-level management and interventions.
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Stott, Peter A., and Chris E. Forest. "Ensemble climate predictions using climate models and observational constraints." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1857 (June 14, 2007): 2029–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2075.
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Two different approaches are described for constraining climate predictions based on observations of past climate change. The first uses large ensembles of simulations from computationally efficient models and the second uses small ensembles from state-of-the-art coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. Each approach is described and the advantages of each are discussed. When compared, the two approaches are shown to give consistent ranges for future temperature changes. The consistency of these results, when obtained using independent techniques, demonstrates that past observed climate changes provide robust constraints on probable future climate changes. Such probabilistic predictions are useful for communities seeking to adapt to future change as well as providing important information for devising strategies for mitigating climate change.
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Lee, Kyu Jong, Semi Lee, Byun Woo Lee, and Kwang Soo Kim. "Implementation of GrADS and R Scripts for Processing Future Climate Data to Produce Agricultural Climate Information." Atmosphere 23, no. 2 (June 30, 2013): 237–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/atmos.2013.23.2.237.
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Leijonhufvud, Gustaf. "Making sense of climate risk information: The case of future indoor climate risks in Swedish churches." Climate Risk Management 13 (2016): 76–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.05.003.
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Munden-Dixon, Kate, Kenneth Tate, Bethany Cutts, and Leslie Roche. "An uncertain future: climate resilience of first-generation ranchers." Rangeland Journal 41, no. 3 (2019): 189. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/rj18023.
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Policymakers and scholars agree that the aging and declining number of ranchers is a serious problem for the future of ranching and range management. Studies show that recruiting and retaining new ranchers is difficult due to a complex mix of start-up costs, knowledge and skill requirements, and regulatory barriers. While research suggests that first-generation farmers are different demographically and require individualised information, there is limited research on first-generation ranchers (FGRs); at best they are generalised as beginning farmers in research and outreach programs. This is surprising given ranchers’ unique knowledge requirements relating to the production of food and fibre, and the management of vast areas of public and private land. Based on a rangeland decision-making survey of 507 California Cattlemen’s Association members, this paper examines similarities and divergences in socioeconomic factors, management practices, drought adaptation strategies, information needs, and values between FGRs and multigenerational ranchers (MGRs). Survey results indicate FGRs and MGRs are not statistically different demographically and have similar values; however, key differences include FGRs using fewer information sources about ranching, fewer general management practices, and fewer drought adaptation practices. FGRs are also more susceptible to drought, and are underserved by organisations. Their vulnerability is particularly concerning, as many have limited drought experience, are more likely to take risks, and are less likely to find value and/or participate in ranching organisations. The future of rangelands requires that organisations interested in conserving rangelands and supporting ranchers re-evaluate assumptions about why FGRs and MGRs have different information needs beyond simplistic demographic identity, and instead focus on their affinity as FGRs in order to understand the complexity of the processes underlying these differences. We end with suggestions for a research agenda to support the climate resiliency of FGRs and increase the efficacy of support organisations.
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Nastos, Panagiotis, and Andreas Matzarakis. "Present and Future Climate—Tourism Conditions in Milos Island, Greece." Atmosphere 10, no. 3 (March 18, 2019): 145. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10030145.
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The objective of this study is to analyze the present and future climate-tourism conditions in Milos Island, Cyclades, Greece, by means of the assessment of the three climate components (physical, thermal, and aesthetic), which interprets the so-called climatic tourism potential. Milos Island is chosen as a representative island of the Cyclades complex in the Aegean Sea. Future climate change conditions are analyzed using the high-resolution simulations (grid size 0.11° × 0.11°) of the Regional Climate Model ALADIN 5.2 from Centre National de Recherche Meteorologiques, Meteo France (CNRM). The climate simulations concern the future periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 against the reference period 1961–1990, under two Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Based on regional climate simulations, the tourism potential can be described in a meaningful and simple way by applying the Climate-Tourism-Information-Scheme (CTIS), which depicts detailed climate information that could be used by tourists to foresee the thermal comfort, aesthetic, and physical conditions for planning their vacations. More specifically, the thermal climate component is interpreted by the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), which is one of the most popular physiological thermal indices based on the human energy balance. The findings of the analysis could be used by stakeholders and the tourism industry in decision-making regarding the destination of Milos for tourism planning and touristic infrastructure development.
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Pan, Shan L., Lemuria Carter, Yenni Tim, and M. S. Sandeep. "Digital sustainability, climate change, and information systems solutions: Opportunities for future research." International Journal of Information Management 63 (April 2022): 102444. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2021.102444.
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Yuan, Wei, Shuang-Ye Wu, Shugui Hou, Zhiwei Xu, Hongxi Pang, and Huayu Lu. "Projecting Future Vegetation Change for Northeast China Using CMIP6 Model." Remote Sensing 13, no. 17 (September 6, 2021): 3531. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13173531.
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Northeast China lies in the transition zone from the humid monsoonal to the arid continental climate, with diverse ecosystems and agricultural land highly susceptible to climate change. This region has experienced significant greening in the past three decades, but future trends remain uncertain. In this study, we provide a quantitative assessment of how vegetation, indicated by the leaf area index (LAI), will change in this region in response to future climate change. Based on the output of eleven CMIP6 global climates, Northeast China is likely to get warmer and wetter in the future, corresponding to an increase in regional LAI. Under the medium emissions scenario (SSP245), the average LAI is expected to increase by 0.27 for the mid-century (2041–2070) and 0.39 for the late century (2071–2100). Under the high emissions scenario (SSP585), the increase is 0.40 for the mid-century and 0.70 for the late century, respectively. Despite the increase in the regional mean, the LAI trend shows significant spatial heterogeneity, with likely decreases for the arid northwest and some sandy fields in this region. Therefore, climate change could pose additional challenges for long-term ecological and economic sustainability. Our findings could provide useful information to local decision makers for developing effective sustainable land management strategies in Northeast China.
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Rhodes, Lauren A., and Bruce A. McCarl. "The Value of Ocean Decadal Climate Variability Information to United States Agriculture." Atmosphere 11, no. 4 (March 25, 2020): 318. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040318.
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Ocean-related decadal climate variability (ODCV) has the potential to influence regional climates and, in turn, crop yields. ODCV event forecasts with associated climate and crop yield implication information can provide farmers with the opportunity to alter their crop mixes and input usage to adapt to the forecast conditions. We investigate the value of ODCV information and the nature of adaptations. This is done by estimating the changes in welfare under differing information scenarios using a nonlinear dynamic optimization model. We find evidence that both perfect forecasts and the use of forecasts permitting a conditional probability of future phase combinations can significantly increase agriculture consumer and producer welfare. This is a new result that is an estimate of the US national value of releasing ODCV forecasts and accompanying yield information.
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Beattie, Geoffrey, Melissa Marselle, Laura McGuire, and Damien Litchfield. "Staying over-optimistic about the future: Uncovering attentional biases to climate change messages." Semiotica 2017, no. 218 (September 26, 2017): 21–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/sem-2016-0074.
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AbstractThere is considerable concern that the public are not getting the message about climate change. One possible explanation is “optimism bias,” where individuals overestimate the likelihood of positive events happening to them and underestimate the likelihood of negative events. Evidence from behavioral neuroscience suggest that this bias is underpinned by selective information processing, specifically through a reduced level of neural coding of undesirable information, and an unconscious tendency for optimists to avoid fixating negative information. Here we test how this bias in attention could relate to the processing of climate change messages. Using eye tracking, we found that level of dispositional optimism affected visual fixations on climate change messages. Optimists spent less time (overall dwell time) attending to any arguments about climate changes (either “for” or “against”) with substantially shorter individual fixations on aspects of arguments for climate change, i.e., those that reflect the scientific consensus but are bad news. We also found that when asked to summarize what they had read, non-optimists were more likely to frame their recall in terms of the arguments “for” climate change; optimists were significantly more likely to frame it in terms of a debate between two opposing positions. Those highest in dispositional optimism seemed to have the strongest and most pronounced level of optimism bias when it came to estimating the probability of being personally affected by climate change. We discuss the importance of overcoming this cognitive bias to develop more effective strategies for communicating about climate change.
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Hughes, D. A. "Scientific and practical tools for dealing with water resource estimations for the future." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 371 (June 12, 2015): 23–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-371-23-2015.
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Abstract. Future flow regimes will be different to today and imperfect knowledge of present and future climate variations, rainfall–runoff processes and anthropogenic impacts make them highly uncertain. Future water resources decisions will rely on practical and appropriate simulation tools that are sensitive to changes, can assimilate different types of change information and flexible enough to accommodate improvements in understanding of change. They need to include representations of uncertainty and generate information appropriate for uncertain decision-making. This paper presents some examples of the tools that have been developed to address these issues in the southern Africa region. The examples include uncertainty in present day simulations due to lack of understanding and data, using climate change projection data from multiple climate models and future catchment responses due to both climate and development effects. The conclusions are that the tools and models are largely available and what we need is more reliable forcing and model evlaution information as well as methods of making decisions with such inevitably uncertain information.
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Chivulescu, Serban, Juan García-Duro, Diana Pitar, Ștefan Leca, and Ovidiu Badea. "Past and Future of Temperate Forests State under Climate Change Effects in the Romanian Southern Carpathians." Forests 12, no. 7 (July 7, 2021): 885. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f12070885.
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Research Highlights: Carpathian forests hold high ecological and economic value while generating conservation concerns, with some of these forests being among the few remaining temperate virgin forests in Europe. Carpathian forests partially lost their original integrity due to their management. Climate change has also gradually contributed to forest changes due to its modification of the environmental conditions. Background and Objectives: Understanding trees’ responses to past climates and forms of management is critical in foreseeing the responses of forests to future conditions. This study aims (1) to determine the sensitivity of Carpathian forests to past climates using dendrochronological records and (2) to describe the effects that climate change and management will have on the attributes of Carpathian forests, with a particular focus on the different response of pure and mixed forests. Materials and Methods: To this end, we first analysed the past climate-induced growth change in a dendrochronological reference series generated for virgin forests in the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and then used the obtained information to calibrate spatially explicit forest Landis-II models for the same region. The model was used to project forest change under four climate change scenarios, from mild to extreme. Results: The dendrochronological analysis revealed a climate-driven increase in forest growth over time. Landis-II model simulations also indicate that the amount of aboveground forest biomass will tend to increase with climate change. Conclusions: There are differences in the response of pure and mixed forests. Therefore, suitable forest management is required when forests change with the climate.
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Sohngen, Brent. "Climate Change and Forests." Annual Review of Resource Economics 12, no. 1 (October 6, 2020): 23–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-110419-010208.
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Forests have become an important carbon sink in the last century, with management and carbon fertilization offsetting nearly all of the carbon emitted due to deforestation and conversion of land into agricultural uses. Society appears already to have decided that forests will play an equally ambitious role in the future. Given this, economists are needed to help better understand the efficiency of efforts society may undertake to expand forests, protect them from losses, manage them more intensively, or convert them into wood products, including biomass energy. A rich literature exists on this topic, but a number of critical information gaps persist, representing important opportunities for economists to advance knowledge in the future. This article reviews the literature on forests and climate change and provides some thoughts on potential future research directions.
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De Mel, Manishka, William Solecki, Radley Horton, Ryan Bartlett, Abigail Hehmeyer, Shaun Martin, and Cynthia Rosenzweig. "Perceptions of Climate Risk and Use of Climate Risk Information by Natural Resource Conservation Stakeholders Participating in ADVANCE Projects in Asia and Latin America." Weather, Climate, and Society 13, no. 3 (July 2021): 423–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-20-0010.1.
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AbstractIntegrating climate risk information into resilience-building activities in the field is important to ensure that adaptation is based on the best available science. Despite this, many challenges exist when developing, communicating, and incorporating climate risk information. There are limited resources on how stakeholders perceive risks, use risk information, and what barriers exist to limit knowledge integration. This paper seeks to define the following: 1) What do conservation stakeholders consider to be the most significant climate risks they face now and possibly in the future? 2) What have been the most significant barriers to their using climate risk information? 3) What sources and types of knowledge would be most useful for these managers to overcome these barriers? A survey was conducted among stakeholders (n = 224) associated with World Wildlife Fund projects in tropical and subtropical countries. A very high proportion of stakeholders used climate risk information and yet faced integration-related challenges, which included too much uncertainty and the lack of a relevant scale for planning. The main factors preventing the use of climate risk information in decision-making were unavailability of climate risk information, no or limited financial or human resources available to respond, lack of organizational mandate or support, and no or limited institutional incentives. Comparing perceived current and future risks revealed a decline in concern for some future climate hazards. Survey respondents identified scientific reports, climate scientists, and online sources as the most useful information sources of climate risk information, while (i) maps and illustrations; (ii) scenarios format; and (iii) data tables, graphs, and charts were identified as user-friendly formats.
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Latkin, Carl, Lauren Dayton, Catelyn Coyle, Grace Yi, Da-In Lee, and Abigail Winiker. "The Relationship between Social Norms, Avoidance, Future Orientation, and Willingness to Engage in Climate Change Advocacy Communications." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 24 (December 10, 2021): 13037. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182413037.
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This study examined factors associated with willingness to engage in communication behaviors related to climate change advocacy. Data were collected as part of an online, longitudinal US study beginning in March 2020. Outcomes included willingness to post materials online, contact state legislators, and talk with peers about climate change. Covariates included climate change-related social norms, avoidance of climate change information, and perceptions of the future impact of climate change. A minority of the 586 respondents (23%) reported regular conversations about climate change, while approximately half of the respondents reported willingness to discuss climate change with peers (58%), post materials online (47%), and contact state legislators (46%). Strong predictors of willingness to engage in each climate change communications behaviors included climate change social norms, not avoiding climate change information, and believing that climate change will have a negative impact on the future. Findings indicate the importance of designing programs to foster increased climate change communications in order to promote community-level climate change advocacy norms.
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Lackstrom, Kirsten, Gregory J. Carbone, Daniel L. Tufford, and Aashka Patel. "Climate and Water Resources in the Carolinas: Approaches to Applying Global Climate Change Information to Local Decisions." Journal of South Carolina Water Resources, no. 3 (June 1, 2016): 49–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.34068/jscwr.03.06.
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A wide range of resource managers, community planners, and other stakeholders are increasingly asking for information regarding how climate change will affect South Carolina’s freshwater and coastal resources. They are interested in using this information for decisions related to infrastructure design, water system planning, vulnerability assessments, and ecosystem management. While climate change data, projections, and related information are also becoming increasingly available, many uncertainties around future climate change and its potential impacts often hinder its application. Furthermore it is often not available in a format or at a scale that is easily translated to local- and regional resource management decisions. This article highlights decision-maker questions about climate change in the Carolinas, approaches to using global climate change information, and opportunities to bridge the gap that often exists between scientific research and applications. We find that integration of future climate scenarios with water resources issues succeeds when robust links exist between climate variables and system response, and when scenarios from observed or simulated climate data are representative, plausible, and consistent. In general, there is no one “best” model that depicts future climate conditions, nor can climate science provide accurate predictions for specific locations and impacts. However, climate change projections can be used in conjunction with a variety of other tools and resources, such as vulnerability assessments and historical climate observations, to inform planning processes. Improved understanding of the system of concern, the linkages to climate, and the most important variables can help decision makers and researchers alike to develop the most relevant and informative analyses for climate-related questions. Ongoing engagement, as well as a willingness to experiment and share lessons learned, between and across the resource management and science communities will help to advance the climate change dialogue in the Carolinas and enhance the production and use of climate change information.
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Wübbelmann, Thea, Steffen Bender, and Benjamin Burkhard. "Modelling flood regulation ecosystem services dynamics based on climate and land use information." Landscape Online 88 (February 6, 2021): 16. http://dx.doi.org/10.3097/lo.202188.
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The concept of ecosystem service (ES) identifies benefits that people obtain from ecosystems with contributions to human well-being. One important ES under external pressure is “flood regulation” that describes an ecosystem’s capacity to reduce flood hazards.
Several related studies estimate current flood regulation ES. However, regional climate projections indicate a shift in precipitation patterns. Therefore, Climate and land use changes make it necessary to assess future supply in order to test functionality and adaptation measures. This study focuses on surface retention ES. We used two methods to show the relevance of different landscape scenarios and climate information for flood regulation ES supply: 1) hydraulic simulations with the model HEC-RAS 2) the flood retention capacity indicator suggested by the German MAES-Working group. We simulated two events: the historic flood of 2013 and future hypothetically 10% higher water levels. Furthermore, three land use change scenarios were evaluated.
The model results indicate water accumulation by vegetation. Higher water levels of future climate scenarios lead to an increase in flooded areas and higher water volumes. To evaluate flood regulation capacities, an approach solely based on 2D retention areas, such as the MAES-indicator, is not sufficient. Modelling approaches deliver the opportunity for future scenario simulations.
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Schattman, Rachel E., Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, Sarah Wiener, Meredith T. Niles, and David Y. Hollinger. "Farm service agency employee intentions to use weather and climate data in professional services." Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 33, no. 3 (February 20, 2018): 212–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1742170517000783.
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AbstractAgricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) field staff (n = 4621) was conducted in 2016. The survey was designed to assess FSA employees’ use of climate and weather-related data and explore their perspectives on climate change, attitudes toward adaptation and concerns regarding climate- and weather-driven risks. Two structural equation models were developed to explore relationships between these factors, and to predict respondents’ willingness to integrate climate and weather data into their professional services in the future. The two models were compared with assess the relative influence of respondents’ current use of weather and climate information. Findings suggest that respondents’ perceptions of weather-related risk in combination with their personal observations of weather variability help predict whether an individual intends to use weather and climate information in the future. Importantly, climate change belief is not a significant predictor of this intention; however, the belief that producers will have to adapt to climate change in order to remain viable is. Surprisingly, whether or not an individual currently uses weather and climate information is not a good predictor of whether they intend to in the future. This suggests that there are opportunities to increase employee exposure and proficiency with weather and climate information to meet the needs of American farmers by helping them to reduce risk.
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Mohamed, Abul-Soud. "The smart agriculture applications (current and future)." Annals of Civil and Environmental Engineering 6, no. 1 (December 5, 2022): 071–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.29328/journal.acee.1001045.
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Smart agriculture applications (monitoring, sensing, automation and control) of micro-climate and environmental conditions for different agriculture production sectors and scales, decision-makers and researchers need to take it into consideration to strengthen the efforts of mitigation and adaption of climate change impacts as well as maximize the natural resources use efficiencies and food production. Motivate the farmers to implement smart agriculture applications, especially in developed and poor countries, strong cooperation for technology transfer and build up the technology infrastructure of information and communication (ICT) plus the internet of things (IoT).
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Lee, Jaenam, and Hyungjin Shin. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impact on an Agricultural Reservoir in South Korea." Water 13, no. 15 (August 2, 2021): 2125. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13152125.
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Drought has been frequently occurring in South Korea due to climate change. Analyzing the water supply capacity of the water resource system provides essential information for water resource management. This study evaluates the future water supply capacity of the Gwanghye (GH) agricultural reservoir based on the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. We performed a reservoir simulation by reflecting the full water level of the reservoir before and after reservoir heightening. Climate change is expected to decrease the GH reservoir’s future available water resources due to the overall reduction in the reservoir’s runoff. After the reservoir-heightening project, an overall improvement was observed in the stability of the future irrigation water supply. Moreover, the remaining water after the supply of the irrigation water could supply 0.6–7.2 × 103 m3 of daily instream water. Thus, flexible reservoir operations are necessary according to climate change scenarios and the reservoir operation period. The use of climate change information should be expanded to establish reasonable water management policies for future climate change scenarios.
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Kim, Daeha, Jong Ahn Chun, and Seon Tae Kim. "Overcoming the Challenges of an Uncertain Future with Enhanced Climate Information and Services." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 100, no. 5 (May 2019): ES133—ES136. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-18-0327.1.
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Yuan, Qifen, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Stein Beldring, Wai Kwok Wong, and Chong-Yu Xu. "Bridging the scale gap: obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25, no. 9 (September 28, 2021): 5259–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5259-2021.
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Abstract. Climate change impact assessment related to floods, infrastructure networks, and water resource management applications requires realistic simulations of high-resolution gridded precipitation series under a future climate. This paper proposes to produce such simulations by combining a weather generator for high-resolution gridded daily precipitation, trained on a historical observation-based gridded data product, with coarser-scale climate change information obtained using a regional climate model. The climate change information can be added to various components of the weather generator, related to both the probability of precipitation as well as the amount of precipitation on wet days. The information is added in a transparent manner, allowing for an assessment of the plausibility of the added information. In a case study of nine hydrological catchments in central Norway with the study areas covering 1000–5500 km2, daily simulations are obtained on a 1 km grid for a period of 19 years. The method yields simulations with realistic temporal and spatial structures and outperforms empirical quantile delta mapping in terms of marginal performance.
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Bowen, David E., and Benjamin Schneider. "A Service Climate Synthesis and Future Research Agenda." Journal of Service Research 17, no. 1 (June 25, 2013): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1094670513491633.
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Knutti, Reto. "Should we believe model predictions of future climate change?" Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, no. 1885 (September 25, 2008): 4647–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0169.
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Predictions of future climate are based on elaborate numerical computer models. As computational capacity increases and better observations become available, one would expect the model predictions to become more reliable. However, are they really improving, and how do we know? This paper discusses how current climate models are evaluated, why and where scientists have confidence in their models, how uncertainty in predictions can be quantified, and why models often tend to converge on what we observe but not on what we predict. Furthermore, it outlines some strategies on how the climate modelling community may overcome some of the current deficiencies in the attempt to provide useful information to the public and policy-makers.
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Hewitt, C. D., E. Allis, S. J. Mason, M. Muth, R. Pulwarty, J. Shumake-Guillemot, A. Bucher, et al. "Making Society Climate Resilient: International Progress under the Global Framework for Climate Services." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, no. 2 (February 1, 2020): E237—E252. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-18-0211.1.
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Abstract There is growing awareness among governments, businesses, and the general public of risks arising from changes to our climate on time scales from months through to decades. Some climatic changes could be unprecedented in their harmful socioeconomic impacts, while others with adequate forewarning and planning could offer benefits. There is therefore a pressing need for decision-makers, including policy-makers, to have access to and to use high-quality, accessible, relevant, and credible climate information about the past, present, and future to help make better-informed decisions and policies. We refer to the provision and use of such information as climate services. Established programs of research and operational activities are improving observations and climate monitoring, our understanding of climate processes, climate variability and change, and predictions and projections of the future climate. Delivering climate information (including data and knowledge) in a way that is usable and useful for decision-makers has had less attention, and society has yet to optimally benefit from the available information. While weather services routinely help weather-sensitive decision-making, similar services for decisions on longer time scales are less well established. Many organizations are now actively developing climate services, and a growing number of decision-makers are keen to benefit from such services. This article describes progress made over the past decade developing, delivering, and using climate services, in particular from the worldwide effort galvanizing around the Global Framework for Climate Services under the coordination of UN agencies. The article highlights challenges in making further progress and proposes potential new directions to address such challenges.
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Mohammed, Fahmy Osman, Anwar Othman Mohammad, Hivi Shawket Ibrahim, and Rozhgar Abdullah Hasan. "Future Scenario of Global Climate Map change according to the Köppen -Geiger Climate Classification." Baghdad Science Journal 18, no. 2(Suppl.) (June 20, 2021): 1030. http://dx.doi.org/10.21123/bsj.2021.18.2(suppl.).1030.
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Earth’s climate changes rapidly due to the increases in human demands and rapid economic growth. These changes will affect the entire biosphere, mostly in negative ways. Predicting future changes will put us in a better position to minimize their catastrophic effects and to understand how humans can cope with the new changes beforehand. In this research, previous global climate data set observations from 1961-1990 have been used to predict the future climate change scenario for 2010-2039. The data were processed with Idrisi Andes software and the final Köppen-Geiger map was created with ArcGIS software. Based on Köppen climate classification, it was found that areas of Equator, Arid Steppes, and Snow will decrease by 3.9 %, 2.96%, and 0.09%, respectively. While the areas of Warm Temperature and Dessert will increase by 4.5% and 0.75%, respectively. The results of this study provide useful information on future climate Köppen-Geiger maps and areas that will most likely be affected by climate change in the following decades
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Ciancio, Virgilio, Serena Falasca, Iacopo Golasi, Pieter de Wilde, Massimo Coppi, Livio de Santoli, and Ferdinando Salata. "Resilience of a Building to Future Climate Conditions in Three European Cities." Energies 12, no. 23 (November 27, 2019): 4506. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en12234506.
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Building energy need simulations are usually performed using input files that contain information about the averaged weather data based on historical patterns. Therefore, the simulations performed are not able to provide information about possible future scenarios due to climate change. In this work, future trends of building energy demands due to the climate change across Europe were studied by comparing three time steps (present, 2050, and -2080) in three different European cities, characterized by different Köppen-Geiger climatic classes. A residential building with modern architectural features was taken into consideration for the simulations. Future climate conditions were reached by applying the effects of climate changes to current hourly meteorological data though the climate change tool world weather file generator (CCWorldWeatherGen) tool, according to the guidelines established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In order to examine the resilience of the building, the simulations carried out were compared with respect to: peak power, median values of the power, and energy consumed by heating and cooling system. The observed trend shows a general reduction in the energy needs for heating (–46% for Aberdeen, –80% for Palermo, –36% for Prague in 2080 compared to the present) and increase (occurrence for Aberdeen) in cooling requirements. These results imply a revaluation of system size.
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Zhang, Fan, Xing Li, Weimin Wang, Xinli Ke, and Qingling Shi. "Impacts of Future Grassland Changes on Surface Climate in Mongolia." Advances in Meteorology 2013 (2013): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/263746.
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Climate change caused by land use/cover change (LUCC) is becoming a hot topic in current global change, especially the changes caused by the grassland degradation. In this paper, based on the baseline underlying surface data of 1993, the predicted underlying surface data which can be derived through overlaying the grassland degradation information to the map of baseline underlying surface, and the atmospheric forcing data of RCP 6.0 from CMIP5, climatological changes caused by future grassland changes for the years 2010–2020 and 2040–2050 with the Weather Research Forecast model (WRF) are simulated. The model-based analysis shows that future grassland degradation will significantly result in regional climate change. The grassland degradation in future could lead to an increasing trend of temperature in most areas and corresponding change range of the annual average temperature of −0.1°C–0.4°C, and it will cause a decreasing trend of precipitation and corresponding change range of the annual average precipitation of 10 mm–50 mm. This study identifies lines of evidence for effects of future grassland degradation on regional climate in Mongolia which provides meaningful decision-making information for the development and strategy plan making in Mongolia.
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Lioubimtseva, Elena. "Climate change in arid environments: revisiting the past to understand the future." Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 28, no. 4 (December 2004): 502–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1191/0309133304pp422oa.
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Arid regions are expected to undergo significant changes under a scenario of climate warming, but there is considerable variability and uncertainty in these estimates between different scenarios. The complexities of precipitation changes, vegetation-climate feedbacks and direct physiological effects of CO2 on vegetation present particular challenges for climate change modelling of arid regions. Great uncertainties exist in the prediction of arid ecosystem responses to elevated CO2 and global warming. Palaeodata provide important information about the past frequency, intensity and subregional patterns of change in the world’s deserts that cannot always be captured by the climatic models. However, it is important to bear in mind that the global mechanisms of Quaternary climatic variability were different from present-day trends, and any direct analogies between the past and present should be treated with great caution. Although palaeodata provide valuable information about possible past changes in the vegetation-climate system, it is unlikely that the history of the world’s deserts is a key for their future.
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Linderholm, H. W., J. A. Björklund, K. Seftigen, B. E. Gunnarson, H. Grudd, J. H. Jeong, I. Drobyshev, and Y. Liu. "Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potential." Climate of the Past 6, no. 1 (February 23, 2010): 93–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-6-93-2010.
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Abstract. Fennoscandia has a strong tradition in dendrochronology, and its large tracts of boreal forest make the region well suited for the development of tree-ring chronologies that extend back several thousands of years. Two of the world's longest continuous (most tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved) tree-ring width chronologies are found in northern Fennoscandia, with records from Torneträsk and Finnish Lapland covering the last ca. 7500 yr. In addition, several chronologies between coastal Norway and the interior of Finland extend back several centuries. Tree-ring data from Fennoscandia have provided important information on regional climate variability during the mid to late Holocene and have played major roles in the reconstruction of hemispheric and global temperatures. Tree-ring data from the region have also been used to reconstruct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, regional precipitation and drought. Such information is imperative when trying to reach better understanding of natural climate change and variability and its forcing mechanisms, and placing recent climate change within a long-term context.
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Vousdoukas, Michalis I., Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen. "Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 18, no. 8 (August 10, 2018): 2127–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018.
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Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policymaking, and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight into the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the coastal flood risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea level (ESL), (ii) the underlying uncertainty in the digital elevation model (DEM), (iii) flood defence information, (iv) the assumptions behind the use of depth–damage functions that express vulnerability, and (v) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties on estimated expected annual damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal, and on the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, and their absolute and relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.
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Tocatlian, Jacques. "Unesco and the Information Superhighway." Information Development 11, no. 3 (September 1995): 146–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/026666699509110307.
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In 1995 the celebration of Unesco's 50th anniversary and a number of related historical commemorations create a propitious climate for reflection and renewal. This article analyzes Unesco's role in information, linking past and future. It briefly reports on the draft 4th Medium-Term Strategy (1996–2001) and explains how the information programmes of the Organization have adapted to the changing needs of Member States and the advances in information technologies. It argues that the proposed emphasis in Unesco's future strategy is in line with general trends observed in leading national studies. The information programmes of Unesco are gradually evolving to enter the information superhighway of tomorrow.
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Potts, John. "Futurism, Futurology, Future Shock, Climate Change: Visions of the Future from 1909 to the Present." PORTAL Journal of Multidisciplinary International Studies 15, no. 1-2 (July 4, 2018): 99–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.5130/portal.v15i1-2.5810.
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This essay charts a brief intellectual history of the futures – both utopian and dystopian – conceived in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It traces perspectives on the future since 1909, when the term ‘futurism’ was coined in the publication of the ‘The Founding and Manifesto of Futurism’. The essay maps changes in the vision of the future, taking a chronological approach in noting developments in the discourse on the future. A prominent theme in pronouncements on the future is technological progress, first in relation to industrial technology, later in the context of post-industrial or information technology. A turning-point in this discourse can be isolated around 1973, when ideas of technological progress begin to be challenged in the public sphere; from that date, environmental concern becomes increasingly significant in discussions of the future.
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Jylhä, Kirsti, Heikki Tuomenvirta, Kimmo Ruosteenoja, Hanna Niemi-Hugaerts, Krista Keisu, and Juha A. Karhu. "Observed and Projected Future Shifts of Climatic Zones in Europe and Their Use to Visualize Climate Change Information." Weather, Climate, and Society 2, no. 2 (April 1, 2010): 148–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010wcas1010.1.
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Abstract A Web site questionnaire survey in Finland suggested that maps illustrating projected shifts of Köppen climatic zones are an effective visualization tool for disseminating climate change information. The climate classification is based on seasonal cycles of monthly-mean temperature and precipitation, and it divides Europe and its adjacent land areas into tundra, boreal, temperate, and dry climate types. Projections of future changes in the climatic zones were composed using multimodel mean projections based on simulations performed with 19 global climate models. The projections imply that, depending on the greenhouse gas scenarios, about half or possibly even two-thirds of the study domain will be affected by shifts toward a warmer or drier climate type during this century. The projected changes within the next few decades are chiefly located near regions where shifts in the borders of the zones have already occurred during the period 1950–2006. The questionnaire survey indicated that the information regarding the shifting climatic zones as disseminated by the maps was generally interpreted correctly, with the average percentage of correct answers being 86%. Additional examples of the use of the climatic zones to communicate climate change information to the public are included.
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Trenberth, Kevin E., Berrien Moore, Thomas R. Karl, and Carlos Nobre. "Monitoring and Prediction of the Earth’s Climate: A Future Perspective." Journal of Climate 19, no. 20 (October 15, 2006): 5001–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3897.1.
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Abstract The climate is changing because of human activities and will continue to do so regardless of any mitigation actions. Available climate observations and information are also changing as technological advances take place. Accordingly, an overview is given of a much-needed potential climate information system that embraces a comprehensive observing system to observe and track changes and the forcings of the system as they occur, and that develops the ability to relate one to the other and understand changes and their origins. Observations need to be taken in ways that satisfy the climate monitoring principles and ensure long-term continuity, and that have the ability to discern small but persistent signals. Some benchmark observations are proposed to anchor space-based observations and trends, including a much-needed step forward in the quality of water vapor observations. Satellite observations must be calibrated and validated, with orbital decay and drift effects fully dealt with if possible, and adequate overlap to ensure continuity. The health of the monitoring system must be tracked and resources identified to address issues. Fields must be analyzed into global products and delivered to users while stakeholder needs are fully considered. Data should be appropriately archived with full and open access, along with metadata that fully describe the observing system status and environment in which it operates. Reanalysis of the records must be institutionalized along with continual assessment of impacts of new observing and analysis systems. Some products will be used to validate and improve models, as well as initialize models and predict future evolution on multiple time scales using ensembles. Attribution of changes to causes is essential, and it is vital to fully assess past changes and model performance and results in making predictions to help appraise reliability and assess impacts regionally on the environment, human activities, and sectors of the economy. In particular, a revolution in the way developing countries use and apply climate information is expected. Such a system will be invaluable and further provides a framework for setting priorities of new observations and related activities. Without the end-to-end process the investments will not deliver adequate return and our understanding will be much less than it would be otherwise.
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Lanzante, John R., Keith W. Dixon, Mary Jo Nath, Carolyn E. Whitlock, and Dennis Adams-Smith. "Some Pitfalls in Statistical Downscaling of Future Climate." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99, no. 4 (April 2018): 791–803. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-17-0046.1.
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AbstractStatistical downscaling (SD) is commonly used to provide information for the assessment of climate change impacts. Using as input the output from large-scale dynamical climate models and observation-based data products, SD aims to provide a finer grain of detail and to mitigate systematic biases. It is generally recognized as providing added value. However, one of the key assumptions of SD is that the relationships used to train the method during a historical period are unchanged in the future, in the face of climate change. The validity of this assumption is typically quite difficult to assess in the normal course of analysis, as observations of future climate are lacking. We approach this problem using a “perfect model” experimental design in which high-resolution dynamical climate model output is used as a surrogate for both past and future observations.We find that while SD in general adds considerable value, in certain well-defined circumstances it can produce highly erroneous results. Furthermore, the breakdown of SD in these contexts could not be foreshadowed during the typical course of evaluation based on only available historical data. We diagnose and explain the reasons for these failures in terms of physical, statistical, and methodological causes. These findings highlight the need for caution in the use of statistically downscaled products and the need for further research to consider other hitherto unknown pitfalls, perhaps utilizing more advanced perfect model designs than the one we have employed.
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Ziska, Lewis H. "Climate Change and the Herbicide Paradigm: Visiting the Future." Agronomy 10, no. 12 (December 12, 2020): 1953. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10121953.
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Weeds are recognized globally as a major constraint to crop production and food security. In recent decades, that constraint has been minimized through the extensive use of herbicides in conjunction with genetically modified resistant crops. However, as is becoming evident, such a stratagem is resulting in evolutionary selection for widespread herbicide resistance and the need for a reformation of current practices regarding weed management. Whereas such a need is recognized within the traditional auspices of weed science, it is also imperative to include emerging evidence that rising levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) and climatic shifts will impose additional selection pressures that will, in turn, affect herbicide efficacy. The goal of the current perspective is to provide historical context of herbicide use, outline the biological basis for CO2/climate impacts on weed biology, and address the need to integrate this information to provide a long-term sustainable paradigm for weed management.
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Briggs, Chad. "Climate Change and Hybrid Warfare Strategies." Journal of Strategic Security 13, no. 4 (December 2020): 45–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.13.4.1864.
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Concepts of hybrid warfare and climate security are contested on their own, and are rarely considered as connected in planning for future security risks. Yet climate change presents new hazards for national security, and opportunities for those looking to foment instability and uncertainty in traditional institutions. This article examines the connections between climate change risks and hybrid war strategies, and focuses on concepts of resilience targeting, information warfare, and geoengineering, illustrating that ‘full spectrum’ analyses of security are necessary in developing future security strategies.
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Graham, Nicholas E., and Konstantine P. Georgakakos. "Toward Understanding the Value of Climate Information for Multiobjective Reservoir Management under Present and Future Climate and Demand Scenarios." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 49, no. 4 (April 1, 2010): 557–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jamc2135.1.
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Abstract Numerical simulation techniques and idealized reservoir management models are used to assess the utility of climate information for the effective management of a single multiobjective reservoir. Reservoir management considers meeting release and reservoir volume targets and minimizing wasteful spillage. The influence of reservoir size and inflow variability parameters on the management benefits is examined. The effects of climate and demand (release target) change on the management policies and performance are also quantified for various change scenarios. Inflow forecasts emulate ensembles of dynamical forecasts for a hypothetical climate system with somewhat predictable low-frequency variability. The analysis considers the impacts of forecast skill. The mathematical problem is cast in a dimensionless time and volume framework to allow generalization. The present work complements existing research results for specific applications and expands earlier analytical results for simpler management situations in an effort to draw general conclusions for the present-day reservoir management problem under uncertainty. The findings support the following conclusions: (i) reliable inflow forecasts are beneficial for reservoir management under most situations if adaptive management is employed; (ii) tolerance to forecasts of lower reliability tends to be higher for larger reservoirs; (iii) reliable inflow forecasts are most useful for a midrange of reservoir capacities; (iv) demand changes are more detrimental to reservoir management performance than inflow change effects of similar magnitude; (v) adaptive management is effective for mitigating climatic change effects and may even help to mitigate demand change effects.
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Haworth, Billy, Eloise Biggs, John Duncan, Nathan Wales, Bryan Boruff, and Eleanor Bruce. "Geographic Information and Communication Technologies for Supporting Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Resilience." Climate 6, no. 4 (December 10, 2018): 97. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli6040097.
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Multiple factors constrain smallholder agriculture and farmers’ adaptive capacities under changing climates, including access to information to support context appropriate farm decision-making. Current approaches to geographic information dissemination to smallholders, such as the rural extension model, are limited, yet advancements in internet and communication technologies (ICTs) could help augment these processes through the provision of agricultural geographic information (AGI) directly to farmers. We analysed recent ICT initiatives for communicating climate and agriculture-related information to smallholders for improved livelihoods and climate change adaptation. Through the critical analysis of initiatives, we identified opportunities for the success of future AGI developments. We systematically examined 27 AGI initiatives reported in academic and grey literature (e.g., organisational databases). Important factors identified for the success of initiatives include affordability, language(s), community partnerships, user collaboration, high quality and locally-relevant information through low-tech platforms, organisational trust, clear business models, and adaptability. We propose initiatives should be better-targeted to deliver AGI to regions in most need of climate adaptation assistance, including SE Asia, the Pacific, and the Caribbean. Further assessment of the most effective technological approaches is needed. Initiatives should be independently assessed for evaluation of their uptake and success, and local communities should be better-incorporated into the development of AGI initiatives.
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Naga Sowjanya, Ponguru, Venkata Reddy Keesara, Shashi Mesapam, Jew Das, and Venkataramana Sridhar. "Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow in the Krishna River Basin, India: Uncertainty and Multi-Site Analysis." Climate 10, no. 12 (December 1, 2022): 190. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli10120190.
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In Peninsular India, the Krishna River basin is the second largest river basin that is overutilized and more vulnerable to climate change. The main aim of this study is to determine the future projection of monthly streamflows in the Krishna River basin for Historic (1980–2004) and Future (2020–2044, 2045–2069, 2070–2094) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with the help of the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). SWAT model parameters are optimized using SWAT-CUP during calibration (1975 to 1990) and validation (1991–2003) periods using observed discharge data at 5 gauging stations. The Cordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) provides the future projections for meteorological variables with different high-resolution Global Climate Models (GCM). Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) is used to analyze the uncertainty of meteorological variables associated within the multiple GCMs for simulating streamflow. REA-projected climate parameters are validated with IMD-simulated data. The results indicate that REA performs well throughout the basin, with the exception of the area near the Krishna River’s headwaters. For the RCP 4.5 scenario, the simulated monsoon streamflow values at Mantralayam gauge station are 716.3 m3/s per month for the historic period (1980–2004), 615.6 m3/s per month for the future1 period (2020–2044), 658.4 m3/s per month for the future2 period (2045–2069), and 748.9 m3/s per month for the future3 period (2070–2094). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, lower values of about 50% are simulated during the winter. Future streamflow projections at Mantralayam and Pondhugala gauge stations are lower by 30 to 50% when compared to historic streamflow under RCP 4.5. When compared to the other two future periods, trends in streamflow throughout the basin show a decreasing trend in the first future period. Water managers in developing water management can use the recommendations made in this study as preliminary information and adaptation practices for the Krishna River basin.