Academic literature on the topic 'Futur au cinéma'

Le cinéma propose un reflet des choses qui le contraint à se conjuguer au passé même s’il nous invite à le vivre comme un présent. C’est ce qui en fait le lieu idoine de l’incarnation de la mémoire : depuis les débuts de leur histoire, les films proposent des modalités de représentation différentes du retour et de la persistance de ce qui a été dans ce qui est. Si la figure du spectre (cet être translucide, voire transparent, qui rappelle le vivant qu’il a habité) s’est imposée comme la plus à même de remplir cette fonction, et ce, sous diverses formes témoignant d’une réflexion du médium sur lui-même, ses attributs ont su dépasser le cadre du fantastique pour s’incarner dans des procédés cinématographiques (flash-back, anaphores musicales, surimpressions) qui traduisent certains mécanismes de la vie psychique et qui engagent à une lecture anthropologique du cinéma dans le sillage du livre d’Edgar Morin, Le cinéma ou L’homme imaginaire. De fait, si la possibilité de représenter la mémoire permet de réfléchir à sa spécificité, la réciproque est pareillement vraie, car rien ne nous éclaire plus sur l’homme, éveillé ou assoupi, présent, passé ou futur, que l’analyse de ses créations.

Résumé Des artistes ont changé leur rapport à l’art et ont collaboré à bouleverser le paysage culturel dans des domaines tels que la littérature, la musique, le cinéma ou l’art plastique. Comme en témoignent les œuvres de Yazid Kheloufi, Hosni Hertili, Hassan Massoudy et Alexia Traore, en s’attaquant aux interdits, leur liberté d’expression a laissé place à une force créatrice. Ils sont devenus maîtres de leur passé, de leur présent, de leur futur et même de leurs corps.

RésuméOn examinera ici ce qu’a de particulier la lecture faite par Gilles Deleuze de la notion du dehors et de l’impuissance de la pensée chez Blanchot, qu’il subvertit en quelque sorte — l’usage deleuzien de Blanchot n’étant guère blanchotien — en appuyant sa lecture sur celle de Michel Foucault, puis en faisant ici et là un détour par Henri Bergson et saint Augustin, dont il reprendra l’idée de la multiplicité des présents (présents du passé, du présent, du futur). On verra aussi, conséquemment, comment le rôle joué par l’« attracteur étrange » que représente Maurice Blanchot dans la pensée que développe Deleuze dansL’image-tempssert à colmater une ligne de fuite qui traverse tout le dispositif de l’image-temps et fait vaciller la possibilité d’inscrire l’image dans le temps. En opposant dehors et dedans, visible et non-visible, présent et devenir, on arrivera aux conclusions suivantes, à savoir que le cinéma ne rend pas le temps visible, mais qu’il rend au contraire perceptible le mouvement par lequel le temps échappe à l’image, que l’attrait du dehors fait du paradoxe du mouvement (visible et non visible, continu et continûment discontinu) le principe même de l’image cinématographique, et que l’image-temps, enfin, est traversée par le mouvement d’un devenir qui, en prenant le nom de « pensée du dehors », met en jeu la pensée elle-même. À l’aide d’un film de Jean-Luc Godard intituléÉloge de l’amour, dont le principe d’organisation peut être considéré comme une illustration de la conception deleuzienne du temps, on verra enfin comment la logique du devenir, qui rend tout présent impossible, détermine le rapport de toute image au temps, comment le dehors, suivant cette idée d’un temps en devenir et à la linéarité rompue, empêcherait le temps en même temps qu’il en annoncerait l’éventuel avènement.

This article examines the relationship between French film funding and the regional cinemas of the Southern Cone of Latin America (Cono Sur) and the Maghreb. Since the 1980s, France has steadily increased its support of filmmakers in francophone regions, expanding its funding of organizations and financial aids like Fonds Sud (now Aide aux cinémas du monde) and Fonds Image de la Francophonie in order to promote francophone filmmaking throughout the world. In the cases of the Southern Cone (Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay) and the Maghreb (Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia), the opportunities provided by French funding and the interest in co-producing global cinema coincides with a rise in local productions within these regions. A French co-production status also promotes the global visibility of other national cinemas. Yet the discourse surrounding the types of narratives shown in French co-productions and the ways in which filmmakers are limited by funding stipulations highlights an ongoing issue that filmmakers from the Southern Cone and the Maghreb face when accepting France’s financial support. The combination of France’s global financing of films and the expanding interest in Southern Cone and North African cinema establishes a complex relationship around French funding institutions, francophone regions (as well as their relationships to the term “francophone”), and identity within an increasingly globalized film space. By examining the history and current state of these regions’ cinemas, as well as their relationships to France, this article analyzes the positive and negative effects of France’s history in financially shaping the national (and regional) cinemas of southern Latin America and the Maghreb, the current landscape of Southern Cone and North African filmmaking, and the possibilities for change in transnational filmmaking in the future.

My thesis investigates issues of sustainability and belonging surrounding the Bulgarian feature film industry. There is a limited body of scholarship on Bulgarian cinema, most of which focuses on film aesthetics and fails to account for the socio-historical and industrial context of local film creation, dissemination and consumption. My work is a continuation of Dina Iordanova’s New Bulgarian Cinema (2008) which promoted the idea of cross-Balkan creative collaborations. In contrast, I see pan-Balkan alliances as simply one part of the transnational co-operation and appropriation practices that have shaped Bulgarian film culture. I reveal that early productions like The Bulgarian Is Gallant (Vassil Gendov, 1915) and Cairn (Alexander Vazov, 1936) sought to reaffirm Bulgaria’s place in European culture and act as a business bridge between the East and the West. During Communism (1944-1989) the Bulgarian Poetic Realist movement and the detective cycle appropriated narrative and aesthetic ideas from, respectively, the Italian Neorealism and British/American spy movies, achieving sustainability not necessarily reliant on state funding. With the shift to an open market economy, I show how the notion of national cinema changed under different legislation as did the balance between state subsidy and private funding. The tension between the art-house canon and contemporary domestic audiences’ idea of Bulgarian cinema is evident in my case-studies of The World Is Big and Salvation Lurks Around the Corner (Stephan Komandarev, 2008), Mission London (Dimitar Mitovski, 2010) and Love.net (Ilian Djevelekov, 2011). The emergence of the Sofia International Film Festival, digital distribution and piracy further redefined the cinema experience in Bulgaria. The case of Bulgaria illustrates the complexities of describing a small national cinema in an environment of legislative and economic inconsistency. It exposes the need for overcoming stereotypes when examining Eastern Europe and questions the existence of singular definitions when it comes to European film culture.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T20:25:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2266.pdf: 3103895 bytes, checksum: a4d755cbc7e743599ce63a1139cca791 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009-02-18
The present study aims to analyze the representations of future in four science fiction movies launched at random during the past thirty years. Blade Runner,by Ridley Scott, Artificial Intelligence, by Steven Spilberg, Idiocracy, by Mike Judge and Children of Men by Alfonso Cuarón, compose our selected corpus for discussion and dialogue. For that purpose, we some concepts have been borrowed as Memory of Future, Dialogism and Intertextuality. The first science fiction film placed in the future we have ever seen was Terminator and the war between Humans and Machines. The child´s innocence made us count the days for the fatidic 1997, but there was no background to feel the film was reconstructing the present of that time, the Reagan era and his technological pyrotechnics war. If each era represents the future according to its own contradictions, in these movies the dialogues are marked above all by political, ideological and even existential ruptures. On the selected movies the world is always in transformation, reflecting the contexts of their times. Another goal of this thesis is to reflect upon the transposition process of literary tradition texts to the motion pictures language aiming the work production to the great audience via movie- theaters and television. At last there is an intent to contribute to the language and cultural studies, applied to the science fiction movies, and leave something relevant about the filmic representations of the future presented on movie-theaters screens.
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as representações de futuro contidas em quatro filmes de ficção cientifica lançados aleatoriamente nos últimos 30 anos. Blade Runner: o caçador de andróides , de Ridley Scott, Inteligencia Artificial, de Steven Spielberg, Idiocracia, de Mike Judge e Filhos da Esperança, de Alfonso Cuarón,compõem nosso corpus selecionado para discussão e diálogo. Para isso trabalhamos alguns conceitos como Memória de Futuro, Dialogismo e Intertextualidade. Se tentamos puxar pela memória o primeiro filme de ficção ambientado no futuro que assistimos, logo nos vem os robôs assassinos de O exterminador do Futuro e a guerra entre Humanos e Máquinas. A inocência da criança nos fez contar os dias para o 1997 fatídico, mas não havia embasamento para sentir que aquele filme reconstruía o presente de então, a era Reagan e suas pirotecnias tecnológicas de guerra. Se cada época representa o futuro de acordo com suas próprias contradições, nestes filmes os diálogos são marcados, sobretudo pela ruptura: política, ideológica e até existencial. Nos filmes selecionados o mundo está sempre em transformação, refletindo os contextos de sua época de realização. Um outro objetivo desta dissertação é refletir sobre o processo de transposição de textos da tradição literária para a linguagem cinematográfica, com vistas à produção de obras destinadas ao grande público de veículos como o cinema e a televisão. Por fim pretendemos contribuir para os estudos de linguagem e cultura, aplicados ao cinema de ficção científica, e dizer algo de relevante sobre as representações cinematográficas dos futuros apresentados nas telas do cinema.

“What is more real than the thoughts in your mind?”, “Re/structure your memories, re/construct your reality, re/define yourself”. The foundation of my research is about practising theory instead of theorising practice. My project begins with theory, which then leads to the science fiction film Mnemophrenia that constitutes the practical aspect of it. I attempt to demonstrate how theory and practice can be joined to create a fruitful union, each one feeding the other. In my research, I am inspired by Marshall McLuhan’s idea and use the medium as the message in order to depict and explore how cinema can affect human memory and more specifically create artificial memories and thus contribute to the dissolution of any boundaries between reality and fiction. The key research question that Mnemophrenia explores is: what would happen if in a future postmodern society the Bazinian myth of ‘total’ cinema becomes a reality? If ‘total cinema’ is pure realism and cinema can lead to artificial memories, then artificial memories and pure realism become one and films become artificial memories. Mnemophrenia depicts a different kind of human being or species, a schizophrenic ‘cyborg’ changed from within due to the advancement of virtual reality films which signals the end of cinema as we know it today. Mnemophrenia is about the future of cinema and maintains a horizon of hope that could lead to utopia; it does not discard technology as something evil as many previous science fiction films have done. I am interested in depicting through the film and examining in my thesis the possibility of a society where the dissolution of borders between fiction and reality does not lead to horrific consequences for humanity but instead promotes a potential for a new kind of identity that is an amalgam of real and artificial memories.

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Humanas, Departamento de História, 2008.
Submitted by Ruthléa Nascimento (ruthlea@bce.unb.br) on 2008-10-30T16:08:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 2008_AndreLuizFCunha.pdf: 916428 bytes, checksum: 8ec64be587bafb0cb7c57aeba424efe5 (MD5)
Approved for entry into archive by Luanna Maia(luanna@bce.unb.br) on 2009-02-26T15:34:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 2008_AndreLuizFCunha.pdf: 916428 bytes, checksum: 8ec64be587bafb0cb7c57aeba424efe5 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2009-02-26T15:34:24Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2008_AndreLuizFCunha.pdf: 916428 bytes, checksum: 8ec64be587bafb0cb7c57aeba424efe5 (MD5)
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar as representações de futuro contidas em dois filmes de ficção científica lançados no ano de 1968: 2001 – Uma Odisséia no Espaço e Planeta dos Macacos. Para isso, trabalho com alguns conceitos, tais como Horizonte de Expectativa, universo diegético, representação, entre outros. Além de analisar cada um dos filmes no contexto cultural e sócio-político, em fins da década de 60, do século XX, buscando compreender significados e sentidos nos elementos que constituem a narrativa fílmica, esta pesquisa também se deteve sobre as formas de apropriação, ou seja, as formas como foram lidas, interpretadas na imprensa tais narrativas, particularmente a crítica carioca. Se cada época representa o futuro de acordo com as suas próprias contradições, em 1968 essa projeção é, sobretudo, marcada pela ruptura: política, ideológica, existencial. Tanto em 2001 quanto em Planeta dos Macacos, o mundo está em transformação, refletindo o contexto da época. Por fim, pretende contribuir para os estudos culturais voltados para o cinema de ficção científica e dizer algo de relevante sobre as representações cinematográficas do futuro em 1968. ______________________________________________________________________________________ ABSTRACT
The following study pretends to analyze the representations of future within two science fiction movies released in the year of 1968: 2001 - A Space Odissey, and Planet of the Apes. To do so, presents some concepts, such as Expectation Horizon, diegetic universe, representation, and others. Beyond analyzing each of the films in the cultural and socio-politic context, in the late 60`s, seeking to comprehend meanings and directions within the cinematic narrative, this research also lingers on the ways of appropriation; witch means the ways that where seen, in the press, their release, particularly in Rio de Janeiro’s criticism. If each epoch represents the future in accordance with its own contradictions, in 1968 this projection is mainly marked by breakage: social, ideological, existential. In both 2001 and Planet of the Apes the world is changing, reflecting its own epoch context. Finally, I pretend to contribute to the cultural studies related to the science fiction cinema and say something weighty about the representations of future at the movies in 1968.

Tato práce se zabývá konceptem imerze ve videohrách a analyzuje možné implikace, které mohou videohry mít pro kinematografii. Imerze je zkoumána jakožto kvantifikovatelná zkušenost prostřednictvím hry ?Heavy Rain? (2010 PS3 titul). Tato práce taky prozkoumává negativní aspekty imerze a současné argumenty pro a proti prosazování prostorových a kinestetických imerzních technologií. Nakonec se práce věnuje vývoji těchto dvou médií a pokouší se predikovat budoucí podobu vyprávění příběhu.

L'elaborato intende proporre una narrazione dei cambiamenti concorsi in questi ultimi anni pandemici nel settore eventistico e festivaliero cinematografico, delineandone l’attuale panorama con lo scopo di tracciare le linee guida per il modello-festival del futuro. Si tratta di una indagine volta sia a documentare le scelte fatte dai festival (obbligate o meno che siano), sia a porre delle basi utili ad esaudire quell’urgenza di rinnovare i modi ed i metodi organizzativi di tali eventi, che come altri si sono dovuti adattare ad esigenze particolarmente stringenti, inesorabili e rapide. Il testo propone, quindi, uno studio storico di queste manifestazioni, concentrandosi sulle loro origini e significati, tale da intercettare quelle fondamenta che ancora oggi sono valide ed esistenti, fortemente radicate. Successivamente ci si concentrerà sui metodi di progettazione e management in uso nell'era pre-Covid, per poi passare al vaglio degli accadimenti emergenziali. Da qui si entrerà più nello specifico andando ad indagare le esperienze e le questioni legate alle “Covid-Edition” dei festival. Si esploreranno i rivoluzionamenti subiti ed attuati, individuando le più significative e principali mutazioni che si potrebbero rivelare come quelle evoluzioni indispensabili e vantaggiose per l’organizzazione e il successo degli eventi di oggi e domani. Toccheremo alcune delle più discusse tematiche odierne, approfondendole, valutandone gli effettivi impatti ed evidenziandone i risvolti positivi. Si includerà un confronto di analisi sui risultati delle ricerche di settore “Effetto Festival: festival e consumi culturali ai tempi del Covid-19” e “Piattaforma festival. Indagine sul futuro degli eventi di cinema”, con lo scopo di evidenziare ulteriormente i vantaggi ottenuti nel 2020. Concluderò la trattazione con l’ipotesi della nuova pratica festivaliera, modello e spunto di riflessione su una progettualità applicabile agli eventi festivalieri di oggi e del futuro.

The science fiction cinema is often concerned about future, and presents to its audience possible alternatives for it. Each science fiction film about the future constructs a different idea in the audience&rsquo
s mind and supports a currently existing ideology at the same time. The science fiction genre extrapolates and speculates about future which results in a new world: Aliens, androids or clones become participants of this world, intergalactic federations regulate diplomatic relationships or natural disasters endanger the whole humankind. The indispensable factor in every case is that new objects surround the future. They are extrapolated or speculated as well from the objects of today in order to fit to and satisfy the needs of the future world of the science fiction film. The ideas about the future presented in the film are supported by the material existence of these future objects. This study demonstrates the ideas and ideologies in respect to future in the science fiction cinema and investigates how the future objects contribute to constructing them.

Submitted by Filipe dos Santos (fsantos@pucsp.br) on 2018-12-05T11:47:25Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Júlia Ramiro Belintani.pdf: 1644791 bytes, checksum: 109215c4c0bcff1bdea018ff4d8f8428 (MD5)
Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-05T11:47:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Júlia Ramiro Belintani.pdf: 1644791 bytes, checksum: 109215c4c0bcff1bdea018ff4d8f8428 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-10-26
Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
The research has emerged from the concern about technologies that fascinate people due to their eases and possibilities and that also frighten because of the overlooked practices and knowledge that preceded them. Does the novelty replace what comes previously or simply overlap it? What does one gain and what does one lose in this process? Among several examples, I focused on a technological transition and a professional category that symbolized this lack of communication between the new and what precedes it; they mirrored each other. The film-to-digital transition in the cinema was also the projectionist - IT technician transition. What other transitions exist within this one? From film to digital. From the 35mm projector to the digital projector. From the projectionist to the IT technician. From the analog to the digital. From the photochemical film to the computer. From the touch to the virtual. From the physics and chemistry to the mathematics. The research has aimed to understand the film-to-digital transition from the point of view of the cinema projectionist. For that, semi-structured interviews were conducted with three professionals in the city of São Paulo, with similar years of experience and involvement with cinema, similar belonging and affection feelings. In addition, the narratives of two other professionals who worked in the 1950s have been added. These interviews were transcribed in full, sequentially organized in order to identify the themes and later analyzed through thematic maps. The results of the analysis were presented in a narrative form, composed by the direct inscription of the interviews, historical passages about the cinema and testimonies of other professionals of the area, as well as of intellectuals who dialogue with the research proposal. These different points of view have been structured in a narrative form in this dissertation, as a conversation. The research has been anchored in the constructivist approach of discursive practices and production of meanings in everyday life. The analysis pointed out to the intrinsic relationship between death and life in technology and in professional relationships, with emphasis on the importance of registration and of cultural memory
A pesquisa surgiu da inquietação diante de tecnologias que fascinam por suas facilidades e possibilidades e assustam pelo descaso com práticas e saberes que as precederam. O novo substitui o anterior ou apenas se sobrepõe a ele? O que se ganha, o que se perde nesse processo? Entre diversos exemplos, focalizei uma transição tecnológica e uma categoria profissional que simbolizavam essa falta de comunicação entre o novo e o precedente; espelhavam uma à outra. A transição película / digital no cinema era também a transição projecionista / técnico de TI. Quais outras transições existem dentro dessas? Da película para o digital. Do projetor 35mm para o projetor digital. Do projecionista para o técnico de TI. Do analógico para o digital. Do filme fotoquímico para o computador. Do tato ao virtual. Da física e da química para a matemática. A pesquisa teve por objetivo entender a transição película / digital do ponto de vista do projecionista de cinema. Para tanto, foram realizadas entrevistas semiestruturadas com três profissionais na cidade de São Paulo, com tempo de ofício e envolvimento semelhantes com o cinema, de pertencimento e afeto. Além disso, somaram-se às narrativas destes as de outros dois profissionais que atuaram nos anos 1950. As entrevistas foram transcritas na íntegra, organizadas sequencialmente para identificação dos temas e posteriormente analisadas por meio de mapas temáticos. Os resultados da análise foram apresentados de forma narrativa, compostos com a inscrição direta das entrevistas, passagens históricas sobre o cinema e depoimentos de outros profissionais da área, bem como de intelectuais que dialogam com a proposta da pesquisa. Esses diversos pontos de vista foram estruturados em narrativa nesta dissertação, como uma conversa. A pesquisa foi ancorada na abordagem construcionista de práticas discursivas e produção de sentidos no cotidiano. A análise apontou para a relação intrínseca entre morte e vida na tecnologia e nas relações profissionais, com ênfase na importância do registro e da memória cultural

This book presents the bold and original proposal to replace the general appellation of ‘world cinema’ with the more substantive concept of ‘realist cinema’. Veering away from the usual focus on modes of reception and spectatorship, it locates instead cinematic realism in the way films are made. The volume is structured across three innovative categories of realist modes of production: ‘noncinema’, or a cinema that aspires to be life itself; ‘intermedial passages’, or films that incorporate other artforms as a channel to historical and political reality; and ‘total cinema’, or films moved by a totalising impulse, be it towards the total artwork, total history or universalising landscapes. Though mostly devoted to recent productions, each part starts with the analysis of foundational classics, which have paved the way for future realist endeavours, proving that realism is timeless and inherent in cinema from its origin.

AbstractEntertainment of the future is a bright embodiment of science and inventions and fantasy and reality, which will plunge humanity into a new life. The global entertainment and entertainment industry are impossible without immersion in virtual reality. The Concert of the Future is a high-quality HD hologram that can be sent from anywhere in the world to a concert hall due to high-speed data transmission. In the future, people will be able to travel mentally to visit the places they want, so buying tickets and booking hotels will no longer be necessary. Also, the music, television, and cinema industry will change immensely. New technologies with an incredible rate of change in the culture and entertainment industry are coming into our lives.

Self-service systems have flourished in recent years; to make it easier for consumers to purchase tickets, cinema operators introduced self-service ticketing kiosks. The performance of the operator interface and the amount of time spent affect the user's propensity to utilize the self-service ticketing kiosk at the Cinema. In the initial observation, most individuals prefer to purchase tickets at the traditional counter rather than the self-service option. This study used an experimental task, SUS, QUIS, and participant's feedback questionnaire, to determine why self-service ticketing kiosks are not meeting users' needs. The study identified cognitive disparities in the ticketing process of the existing self-service kiosks in Cinema and a lack of substantial status presentation and transparent organization in the ticketing interface. It leads inexperienced users to misunderstandings and operational blunders. This study's conclusions can serve as a foundation for the future optimization of self-service ticketing kiosks in cinemas. The results showed that the participants had problems with the faulty operation of the interface of all three cinemas. (1) When purchasing tickets, two cinemas popped up with a "confirm membership status" prompt, which made many participants hesitant and confused. (2)Order corrections problems, including the lack of a "back to the previous step" function, causing the participants to be unable to correct wrong purchases and need to cancel the entire order to purchase again. (3) All three cinemas had unclear information on the seat selection page. 73.3% of the participants felt that the presentation was not straightforward. Includes no seat numbers, alphabetical presentation of row numbers, and no indication of seat status. (4) 43.33% of participants stated that the existing self-service ticketing kiosks at the three cinemas are less convenient and time-efficient than purchasing tickets at the counter, so they prefer to buy tickets at the counter. Moreover, the SUS scale of the kiosk in the three cinemas were 62.5 (D level),56 (F level), and 54.5 (F level), respectively; neither of them could meet the operational requirements. The results of this study provide us with an understanding of the current user behavior and evaluation of the self-service ticketing interface at the Cinema, which could be used to improve the user experience in the future, allowing users to have a better experience during the ticketing process.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.