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Proskuryakova, Liliana. "Russia’s energy in 2030: future trends and technology priorities." foresight 19, no. 2 (April 10, 2017): 139–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2016-0034.
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Purpose The purpose of the study is to discuss and critically assess the outcomes of the Foresight study of the Russian energy sector, undertaken in 2014 in the course of a large-scale national Foresight exercise – “Science and Technology (S&T) Foresight 2030”. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the author performs an ex post evaluation of the Foresight study. The methods used are the literature review of the research and analytical publications that appeared after 2014, policy analysis of new national energy regulations and technologies, interviews and expert panels, and performing a final SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of the Foresight study. Findings As a result of the study, the expediency, efficacy, process efficiency, quality, impact and process improvement of the National S&T Foresight 2030 were assessed. Moreover, the SWOT for the National Foresight and its energy-related outcomes were identified. The National Foresight methodology and its outcomes are critically reviewed, and recommendations for their refinement are made. Research limitations/implications Future research on the topic may include subsequent ex ante and ex post evaluations of energy technology foresights that will include revised lists of technologies, given the rapidly changing energy markets, as well as an assessment of the integration of the study results in the energy and S&T policy documents. Practical implications The practical implications of the study are linked with turning the prospective R&D areas identified through the Foresight into state priorities for funding energy research. Energy companies may utilize the study results in their development plans and R&D strategies. Originality/value This paper offers a valuable insight in the future of energy research and technologies in Russia. It is a comprehensive study that covers all energy aspects from extraction of hydrocarbons to fuel cells and nuclear energy. An ex post assessment of the study is made with implications for the future research.
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Joneidi Jafari, Mahdi, and Seyed Akbar NiliPourTabataba’i. "Corporate foresight and its effect on innovation, strategic decision making and organizational performance (case study: Iranian banking industry)." foresight 19, no. 6 (November 13, 2017): 559–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2017-0035.
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Purpose This paper aims to examine the capability of corporate foresight in the organizations and its impacts on innovation, quality of managers’ strategic decision-making and organizational performance in the banking industry of Iran. Design/methodology/approach In the first part, upon introducing corporate foresight from the two process and content perspectives, influential elements in this construct are discussed. Then, corporate foresight’s relationship with innovation and strategic decision-making is examined and its effect on organizational performance is analyzed within a structural model. Using interview and questionnaire, the data research were collected from the banking industry of Iran including 30 banks (state-commercial banks, specialist-state banks, interest-free loan funds and private banks). Through descriptive, inferential statistical analyses and structural equation modeling using SPSS and Smart PLS software, reliability of the measurement model with 576 samples was confirmed. Findings The results show that the corporate foresight playing three roles of initiator, strategist, and opponent affects the innovation. Moreover, the research results suggest that using the data from the foresight and identifying the weak signals, we can reduce the uncertainty and issue prior warnings in order to enhance the quality of manager’s strategic decision making and promote the organizational performance. Originality/value This paper is one of the articles from the sources of the doctoral thesis of Futures Studies as “The relationship between knowledge absorption capacity, corporate foresight and its effect on the performance of the banking industry in Iran”.
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Semke, Lisa-Marie, and Victor Tiberius. "Corporate Foresight and Dynamic Capabilities: An Exploratory Study." Forecasting 2, no. 2 (June 1, 2020): 180–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/forecast2020010.
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Firms engage in forecasting and foresight activities to predict the future or explore possible future states of the business environment in order to pre-empt and shape it (corporate foresight). Similarly, the dynamic capabilities approach addresses relevant firm capabilities to adapt to fast change in an environment that threatens a firm’s competitiveness and survival. However, despite these conceptual similarities, their relationship remains opaque. To close this gap, we conduct qualitative interviews with foresight experts as an exploratory study. Our results show that foresight and dynamic capabilities aim at an organizational renewal to meet future challenges. Foresight can be regarded as a specific activity that corresponds with the sensing process of dynamic capabilities. The experts disagree about the relationship between foresight and sensing and see no direct links with transformation. However, foresight can better inform post-sensing activities and, therefore, indirectly contribute to the adequate reconfiguration of the resource base, an increased innovativeness, and firm performance.
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Baumgartner, Stefanie, and Marc K. Peter. "Strategic Foresight and Innovation Management: A Comparative Study across International Swiss Banks." Athens Journal of Business & Economics 8, no. 4 (September 8, 2022): 309–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.30958/ajbe.8-4-1.
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International Swiss banks are challenged more than ever. The fast-paced global environment forces them to develop new and innovative products, services, and processes to sustain in the long-term. Therefore, strategic foresight is important to understand the organisations’ customers, their evolving needs and changing behaviour, and in turn provides banks with the necessary analysis and knowledge about future customer needs, enabling them to take the right decisions to be prepared for future change. This paper investigates how the incorporation of strategic foresight in international Swiss banks is executed to enhance their innovation activity. Through an in-depth analysis of academic papers and three case studies based on twelve qualitative interviews with management representatives from the financial services industry, a new framework was developed. The framework of “enhanced innovation activity through collaborative foresight activities” is designed as an iterative process consisting of internal and external dimensions. Innovation activity can be enhanced while focusing on setting the right parameters throughout the organisation. The strategic foresight process enables practitioners in collecting the right information about future trends and customer needs, which supports innovative thinking and human involvement. Applying the framework reinforces banks in focusing on the decisive dimensions of the strategic foresight process and enhances innovation activity. Keywords: strategic foresight, innovation management, enhanced innovation activity framework, foresight research, Swiss banks
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Chulok, Alexander A. "Economic analysis of foresight as an instrument of strategic corporate management: World trends and Russian experience." Russian Management Journal 19, no. 2 (2021): 151–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.21638/spbu18.2021.202.
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This article presents the results of a comprehensive research of foreign and Russian studies in the field of corporate foresight, identifies their key research questions, conducts a structural analysis of cases, gives a classification and summarizes characteristics of domestic projects using foresight methods since the 90s of the past century. The search for an effective tool to ensure strategic development and sustainable competitiveness of the company has been the subject of lively academic discussion since the middle of the last century. However, the research landscape is still highly fragmented and is characterized by the presence of several large gaps associated with an integrated approach to the study of the company, taking into account the action of global trends, incentives and patterns of behavior of key stakeholders and the formation of recommendations for the company’s management. One of the platforms uniting various scientific schools is foresight, a tool for shaping the vision of the future, which has been actively used by global corporations for over 70 years and has won wide recognition in the Russian community in recent years. It is shown that the current stage of Russian corporate foresights is in a state of rapid development and in many respects begins to correspond to world trends. The factors influencing the demand of Russian companies for foresight are determined. The author's forecast of possible trends for the development of foresight as a tool for strategic management of the company for the next 10 years has been made.
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MIETZNER, DANA, and GUIDO REGER. "PRACTICES OF STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN BIOTECH COMPANIES." International Journal of Innovation Management 13, no. 02 (June 2009): 273–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1363919609002297.
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This paper deals with the practice and requirements of strategic foresight in biotechnology firms. Processes and the degree of method application of strategic foresight are less investigated in small- and medium-sized enterprises. Based on case study research of 30 biotechnology companies in Germany, six different approaches of strategic foresight are identified. The study shows how strategic foresight is organised, which methods for strategic foresight are implemented, who is responsible for strategic foresight, what the main characteristics of the different approaches are, and how the strengths and weaknesses of strategic foresight practice in biotechnology firms can be characterized. Furthermore, firms' requirements for suitable foresight processes and methods are identified within the scope of case study research.
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Nazarko, Joanicjusz, Piotr Radziszewski, Katarzyna Dębkowska, Joanna Ejdys, Alicja Gudanowska, Katarzyna Halicka, Jarosław Kilon, et al. "Foresight Study of Road Pavement Technologies." Procedia Engineering 122 (2015): 129–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.10.016.
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Schiermeier, Quirin. "Foresight study blazes trail in Germany." Nature 393, no. 6680 (May 1998): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/29850.
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Kononiuk, Anna, Anna Sacio-Szymańska, and Judit Gáspár. "How do companies envisage the future? Functional foresight approaches." Engineering Management in Production and Services 9, no. 4 (December 20, 2017): 21–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/emj-2017-0028.
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Abstract The main aim of the paper is to present the synthesis of the results of methodological analysis conducted on examples of foresight projects executed in chosen companies representing four companies type: small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), nonprofit- organization, international corporations and consulting companies as well as to posit functional approach for the implementation of foresight research within organizations. The empirical part of the study is based on the qualitative approach. A multiple case study methodology is employed. The research objects are sixteen companies experienced in foresight research. The first part of the paper gives an overview of definitions of corporate foresight and the analysis of background that have influence on the conducting of foresight in large multinational companies on one side and SMEs on the other side. In the field of the theory of foresight research, the study demonstrates that there are different motivations for foresight introduction as well as different organizational structure of teams conducting the activities and the approaches that they use. In the practical perspective, the study and a detailed functional foresight approach proposed by authors could be valuable for SMEs who consider implementing foresight research into their strategic planning processes.
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Deineko, L. V., and E. I. Sheludko. "Conducting pre-foresight research: organizational aspect." Ukrainian Society 77, no. 2 (July 15, 2021): 26–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/socium2021.02.026.
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The growing uncertainty of economic development increases the interest in future research and its role in determining the priority areas of scientific and technological, socio-economic, regional development. Related to this is the rapid spread of the foresight practice as a process of actively learning about the future and creating a medium- and long-term vision to consolidate the efforts of all stakeholders in making relevant decisions. The scope of foresight, which is already becoming the subject of international cooperation, is also expanding. Methodological recommendations have been adopted for the EU countries to balance the countries’ foresight methods when conducting strategic forecast research. Ukraine lags far behind European practices in organising the foresight process, limiting itself to individual initiatives for limited periods. The country has not yet developed the organisational methods required for full-fledged foresight research. Above all, the analysis of organisational and methodological support of the foresight process, the basic aspects of which are formed at the pre-foresight stage of the study. Therefore, the subject of the study was to highlight the organisational aspect of pre-foresight research. The purpose of this publication is a detailed study and analysis of the organisation of pre-foresight research in terms of the formation of informational, communicative, and methodological components of the pre-foresight stage, as well as recommendations for measures to improve the effectiveness of national foresight as a tool for long-term development in the country. Based on bibliographic analysis using systematic, comparative-historical, structural, interdisciplinary approaches, the foreign experience of organising pre-foresight research was generalised, the expediency of improving the information and regulatory framework for foresight research was substantiated, the scope of application of foresight-specific research and criteria were determined by stakeholders of the process, as well as methodological approaches to the formation of a combination of research methods were discovered.
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Hafezi, Reza, Siavosh Malekifar, and Amirnaser Akhavan. "Analyzing Iran’s science and technology foresight programs: recommendations for further practices." foresight 20, no. 3 (June 11, 2018): 312–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2017-0064.
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PurposeStudying previous science and technology (S&T) foresight activities reveals information that helps decision makers to redesign policy-making templates aimed at dealing with new millennium challenges. To propose policy recommendations about further S&T foresight programs in Iran, this paper aims to propose a three-phase process to study historical S&T foresight activities at national and sub-national level since 2005 to 2015, to analyze the state of selected activities to discover weaknesses and potential solutions and, finally, to provide strategies and tactics to improve further S&T foresight activities through an expert-based process.Design/methodology/approachThis paper provides a three-stage methodology, designed to survey Iranian historical foresight practices (study) using scoping framework equipped with additional features, diagnosis and evaluating (analyze) and finally proposing recommendations to organize and implement more efficient further foresight practices (design) to initialize further practices in developing countries such as Iran.FindingsAlthough concerns about future and the importance of foresight activities are raised however Iranian foresight community needs to be developed. As noted in Section 5, Iranian foresight facilitators and specialist are biased to limited methodologies and methods; therefore, creating foresight networks and developing communities is strongly recommended.Research limitations/implicationsThe main constraint of this research was lack of valid data in the case of some Iranian S&T foresight programs.Originality/valueIran as a developing country needs to plan for long-run programs; however, there is no integrated study which reviews and analyzes the previous attempts to dedicate insights about how to reframe existing foresight paradigms. As foresight practices facilitate the paths toward sustainability, analyzing and diagnosis of a series of foresight practices in a devolving country may initialize designing such efforts in less developed world.
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Padbury, Peter. "An Overview of the Horizons Foresight Method: Using the “Inner Game” of Foresight to Build System-Based Scenarios." World Futures Review 12, no. 2 (February 6, 2020): 249–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756719896007.
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Humans have an amazing capacity to imagine the future, and most foresight tools use this capacity but don’t explicitly support it. The Horizons Foresight Method puts this power to model and visualize at the center of the foresight process. This paper introduces foresight and scanning in general terms, describes how we can support the “inner game” of foresight, outlines the steps in the Horizons Foresight Method and some of the practical issues that arise when using it. There are many tools in the futurist’s toolbox and many good foresight methods. At Policy Horizons Canada, we use a variety of methods depending on the purpose of each foresight study. The Horizons Foresight Method is a strategic foresight method that was designed to help government policy analysts and decision-makers explore how complex systems could evolve and to address the kinds of policy relevant uncertainty these shifts generate. It provides a context for policy development and vision-building. All the tools integrated in the Horizons Foresight Method were developed in the field of futures studies. Teaching this method can expose students and practitioners to some of the most useful tools in doing foresight.
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Rondon, Danielli, and Adriana Bin. "Corporate Foresight: The Strategy of Looking to The Future in a Research Organization." Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies 13, no. 3 (September 2, 2021): 356–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24023/futurejournal/2175-5825/2021.v13i3.579.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the practice of foresight at a public research organization in Brazil. Theoretical framework – It was used the concept of foresight to research institutes of a public nature, from the perspective of corporate foresight. Design/methodology/approach – A case study was carried out at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA). The type of case study adopted was the single case study, with an emphasis on in-depth understanding of the investigated case. The phenomenon studied was the accumulated experiences and foresight practices within a research organization. Findings – EMBRAPA has a formal structure and processes related to foresight, indicating the importance that the company places in foresight exercises to support decision making. To this end, it has been employing several foresight exercises to assist strategic planning, research agenda definitions and identification of emerging and future technologies. Originality/value – According to the literature, it was possible to understand that public research organizations can also use foresight to establish strategic research priorities to answer national and international trends in S&T (Science and Technology) well as to the development and societal needs.
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Gusmanov, Rasul, Almir Askarov, Milyausha Lukyanova, Vitaliy Kovshov, and Eugene Stovba. "Strategic Planning of Rural Development Based on Foresight Methodologies." Scientifica 2020 (February 20, 2020): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/5195104.
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The purpose of the study is to establish scientific rational for the use of the foresight methodology in the strategic planning of rural development. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the development of an algorithm for strategic planning of rural development based on the foresight methodology and by the formation of a set of practical recommendations for the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The paper states that modern foresight methodology is quite flexible and multifaceted. It can be widely applied at different hierarchical levels of management. In our research, we consistently analyzed foresight projects and programs used in the rural management and development forecasting. The use of a systematic approach in combination with foresight technologies allows developing strategic plans for the rural areas development from the perspective of improvement of their economic and social component. The research presents the foresight algorithm of the rural development strategic planning and its implementation mechanism at the municipal level. The main components of the foresight testing procedure of the rural areas economic development were determined on the example of such a classic agricultural region of the Russian Federation as the Republic of Bashkortostan. The results of a comprehensive foresight analysis of alternative scenarios of the rural development have been formed. We summarized that the foresight technologies should be used as a system tool for the formation and implementation of the strategy of the sustainable rural areas development. The main results of the study include summarizing the experience of foresight studies on the rural areas development; design of an algorithm of strategic planning of the rural areas development based on the foresight methodology; the formation of alternative scenarios of the rural areas development at the regional level.
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Baškarada, Saša, Diana Shrimpton, and Simon Ng. "Learning through foresight." Foresight 18, no. 4 (August 8, 2016): 414–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-09-2015-0045.
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Purpose This paper aims to investigate how and why foresight may affect individual and organizational learning. Design/methodology/approach This paper builds on prior research through a qualitative study with 13 foresight practitioners. Findings This paper derives four broad foresight capabilities that are underpinned by a number of interdependent factors and relates those to the wider literature on individual and organizational learning. Practical implications Practitioners may use this paper’s findings to enhance any individual and organizational learning effects of foresight activities. Deriving four broad foresight capabilities via a range of interdependent factors may assist practitioners with evaluating and/or enhancing the effectiveness of these capabilities in an organized fashion. Additionally, the findings show that foresight mode, with its strong relationship to foresight-related accountabilities and incentives, plays a central role in all four foresight capabilities. This stresses the importance of having a continuous foresight capability with strong top management commitment, effective governance and clearly defined roles and responsibilities. Originality/value This paper makes a number of theoretical contributions. First, it contributes toward further operationalizing foresight. Second, it demonstrates a substantial overlap between the concepts of foresight and absorptive capacity, which suggests that foresight scholars and practitioners may benefit from a large and mature related body of literature. Third, it identifies explicit links between specific foresight and individual/organizational learning constructs.
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Greenblott, Joseph M., Thomas O’Farrell, Robert Olson, and Beth Burchard. "Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government: A Survey of Methods, Resources, and Institutional Arrangements." World Futures Review 11, no. 3 (December 13, 2018): 245–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756718814908.
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The goal of this study is to help identify approaches and practices for improving Federal foresight efforts and the means for integrating foresight work into strategic planning and decision making. We present the results of semistructured interviews with people involved with foresight in 19 Federal agencies, and with two non-Federal experts on foresight in government. We discuss where agencies use similar approaches and where their approaches diverge, and include particularly insightful quotes from interviewees. We also discuss “broader observations” regarding the state of strategic foresight efforts across the Federal government and how our findings relate to opportunities and challenges to institutionalizing foresight in the Federal government.
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Jez, C. "The foresight approach." Advances in Animal Biosciences 4, s2 (October 2013): 52–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2040470013000344.
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To shed some light on possible directions for research and public policies, but also to help equine industry stakeholders to prepare for upcoming changes, the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), together with the French Institute for Horse and Horse Riding (IFCE), have conducted a collective scenario-building exercise for the French equine industry to 2030. The study is based on “morphological analysis”, a method which explores past and current trends, and potential shifts in order to consider possible future developments.
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Awedyk, Matylda. "Foresight as a Tool in Regional Tourism Development – a Case Study of Tourism Foresight Project." Ekonomiczne Problemy Turystyki 33 (2016): 81–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.18276/ept.2016.1.33-07.
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Choo, Eddie, and Alessandro Fergnani. "The adoption and institutionalization of governmental foresight practices in Singapore." foresight 24, no. 1 (October 18, 2021): 19–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-10-2020-0103.
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Purpose The aim of this study is to trace the factors that have contributed to the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices within the Singapore Public Service, Government of Singapore. Design/methodology/approach This study discusses the history of the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government; this study has carried out content analysis of secondary literature and conducted 11 in-depth semi-structured interviews with elite informants. Findings This study finds that the adoption and institutionalization of foresight practices in the Singapore Government was brought about by a combination of five factors. The most foundational factor in our model is the role of institutional entrepreneurs, who drew upon the symbolic representation of Singapore’s vulnerability to legitimize the use of foresight, thus resonating well with local technocratic groups to maintain steady economic progress. This study further argues that the underdevelopment of foresight in the local private and academic domains can be at least in part explained by the historical connotations of foresight that were uncovered. Research limitations/implications As the findings are fruit of the authors’ interpretation of the secondary literature/interview data, they require further triangulation by future research. Originality/value This study presents the interpretation of elite informants’ accounts and historical documents to explain one of the most exemplar yet classified case studies of governmental foresight globally.
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Kleňha, Jan. "Improving national strategic foresight with the use of forecasting tournaments and its implications for the study of international relations." Stosunki Międzynarodowe – International Relations 2 (January 21, 2022): 4. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/stomiedintrelat.17424.1.
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Improving national strategic foresight can help the formation of more robust and informed policies, including foreign policy. Predicated upon the theory behind peer-prediction elicitation methods such as Reciprocal Scoring, we combined two foresight methods - Forecasting tournaments and a Delphi method - into a design in which a forecasting tournament predicted the results of a Delphi. Experts in a Delphi could take into account the arguments of participants from a prior forecasting tournament and thus make better-informed decisions. This methodological article aims to validate the feasibility of this design. It describes how we implemented it for identifying and prioritizing global megatrends as part of a strategic foresight project for the Czech government. We found this design practically applicable, while the forecasting tournament also seems to improve the ability of participants to predict a group consensus. Similar combinations of foresight methods could be used to enhance the study of international relations.
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Ena, Oleg V., Alexander A. Chulok, and Sergey A. Shashnov. "Networking for sustainable Foresight: A Russian study." Technological Forecasting and Social Change 119 (June 2017): 268–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.05.014.
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Kastrinos, Nikos. "Do statistics need foresight?" foresight 20, no. 2 (April 9, 2018): 137–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-07-2017-0039.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between foresight and official statistics in the context of sustainability and big-data. The aim is to draw ideas, guidance and lessons on how foresight could help national and international statistical offices deal with an increasingly turbulent and demanding environment. Design/methodology/approach The paper analyzes the challenges and opportunities posed by big data and sustainability for official statistics. Findings Drawing on the analysis of the BOHEMIA study – a foresight study launched by the European Commission to support its future policy for research and innovation – the paper proposes elements that could form a foresight programme for statistical offices. Originality/value Statistical offices and foresight have been worlds apart. The need to engage with each other is a recent and interesting phenomenon.
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Kováříková, Ludmila, Stanislava Grosová, and Dušan Baran. "Critical factors impacting the adoption of foresight by companies." foresight 19, no. 6 (November 13, 2017): 541–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-02-2017-0009.
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Purpose The presented study aims to provide an understanding of the mechanism whereby foresight is accepted by Czech companies. The results of the study can offer insights into how to design an optimized corporate foresight tool. Design/methodology/approach The well-established framework of unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT2) served as a baseline for research into key determinants of the behavioral intention to use the foresight. The proposed research model included independent variables of UTAUT2 relevant in the context of foresight. The additional variable of personal innovativeness was introduced as a potential predictor. Structural equation modeling (SmartPLS 2.0 software) was used to evaluate the data. Findings Performance expectancy regarding foresight was identified as the most substantial predictor of behavioral intention in line with the scientific literature. Surprisingly, the second strongest predictor was the construct of personal innovativeness, and social influence was also proven to affect behavioral intention. The results show that traditional determinants of effort expectancy, facilitating conditions, hedonic motivation and habit did not play a significant role in relation to behavioral intention to adopt the foresight. Research limitations/implications The attributes of cost and intention to use could not be included in the research model, as the corporate foresight is not commonly implemented. Second, the tested sample included 103 interviewed organizations but only from Czech Republic. Originality/value The study primarily aims to enhance the corporate foresight theory. Secondarily, it extends the UTAUT2 theoretical framework by testing personal innovativeness as a variable explaining behavioral intention. The authors provide statistical evidence of factors impacting the adoption of corporate foresight by companies.
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Prodanova, Larysa. "FORSITE TECHNOLOGIES IN MODERN ECONOMIC RESEARCH." Proceedings of Scientific Works of Cherkasy State Technological University Series Economic Sciences, no. 60 (April 19, 2021): 93–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.24025/2306-4420.1.60.2021.228575.
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The article is devoted to the study of the theory and practice of modern technologies of scientific prediction and forecasting of scenarios of the future state of society and its economy for the purposes of effective formation and implementation of socio-economic policy. The purpose of the article is to determine the features of the use of foresight technologies in modern economic research. The dynamics of research publications (journal articles) on the subject of foresight (by keywords "foresight", "foresight technology", "foresight methodology"), presented in the online collection of published scientific materials ScienceDirect published by Elsevier, for the period 1997–2020 is analyzed. The tendencies of foresight distribution in the world practice of scientifically substantiated forecasting and programming of social and economic processes are characterized. The experience of conducting foresight research in the United States, the European Union, Japan, as well as in Kazakhstan, Belarus and Russia is summarized. It is emphasized that the experience of domestic and foreign foresight should be organized taking into account the specifics of the following numerous components of the foresight process: purpose and objectives of the study, way of presenting the future and results, information sources, approach to organization, process structure, procedure and stages of research, research methods and their combination, priority area, scale, field of implementation and scope, focus and time horizon, initiators and performers, range of stakeholders and potential users, results obtained and end effects, sources of funding. As a result of the analysis of the achievements of Ukrainian scientists and the domestic practice of applying the methods of scientific prediction, it is concluded that Ukraine is at the initial stage of the development of foresight technologies.
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Meissner, Dirk, and Pavel Rudnik. "Creating sustainable impact from Foresight on STI Policy." foresight 19, no. 5 (September 11, 2017): 457–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2016-0021.
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Purpose Foresight is frequently used to establish science and technology investment priorities and develop corresponding technology and innovation support programmes. In the light of technology and innovation policy, many individual Foresight studies are undertaken which are separate and little linked with the broader policy scope and ambition. This paper aims to look at an approach towards a consistent Foresight system which is linked closely to science, technology and innovation policy. Design/methodology/approach The paper provides an in-depth case study of the Russian Foresight system. The case study is based on desk research and extensive experience of the authors with the system. Findings Russia has developed a systematic approach towards organising Foresight which involves and serves multiple stakeholders, including government, ministries, federal and regional agencies, higher education institutions, public research institutes, state-owned companies and private businesses and a large range of associations. Under the auspicious of a dedicated commission, targeted Foresight is undertaken with clearly defined scope for each. The paper finds that the Russian system is unique in its organisational structure and in the integration of Foresight with science, technology and innovation policy measures. Originality/value The paper describes all facets of the Russian Foresight system which has not been done before. It also outlines the practical steps to further develop and leverage the system.
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Müller, Adrian W., and Jan Oliver Shwarz. "Assessing the functions and dimensions of visualizations in foresight." Foresight 18, no. 1 (March 14, 2016): 76–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-04-2014-0027.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address a central question in foresight exercises: how to communicate derived results? Design/methodology/approach – By drawing on an empirical study, this paper presents a framework for using visualizations in foresight and illustrates its application by referring to a case study. Findings – The argument is made that by using a dimensional framework, the effects of visualization can be leveraged for communicating foresight results and creating stronger buy-in. Originality/value – Although visualizations appear to be a central means of communication and engagement, little is known in the context of foresight on the functions and dimension of visualizations.
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Стовба, Евгений, Evgeniy Stovba, Миляуша Лукьянова, Milyausha Luk'yanova, Виталий Ковшов, and V. Kovshov. "Foresight as a strategic planning and forecasting tool of sustainable development of rural areas." Agrarian Bulletin of the 190, no. 11 (November 14, 2019): 92–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.32417/article_5dcd861eb7f0a4.35513022.
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Abstract. The article actualizes the need of foresight technologies in the sustainable development of strategic plans of sustainable development in rural municipalities at the level of the Russian Federation. It is pointed out that the modern methodology of foresight studies is quite flexible and multifaceted, has wide application at different hierarchical levels of management. The purpose of the study is to prove the need to use the foresight methodologies for rural development strategic planning and forecasting tool. In the course of the study, the following methods were used: strategic planning and forecasting, foresight technologies (expert survey and expert opinions), comparative analysis. The scientific novelty of the study is determined by the formation of a set of practical recommendations on the use of foresight tools at the municipal level of management in rural areas. The systematic approach usage in combination with foresight technologies allows to develop strategic plans for the development in rural areas from the perspective of long-term improvement of their economic and social component. A brief analysis of the current state and development of foresight research in the Russian Federation is presented. It is concluded that in modern conditions of rural development it is necessary to develop strategic programs and anti-crisis measures that should focus on the application of the foresight technologies. It shows that the characteristic features of the rural municipal foresight are, on the one hand, the obligatory interconnection of strategic priorities for rural areas development in the long term and, on the other hand, the need to achieve the interest of key factors in regional development. Results of a research: the algorithm of strategic planning of sustainable development of rural areas of the region based on foresight technologies and the mechanism for its implementation at the municipal level are considered; strategic goals and priority areas for sustainable development of rural areas of the Republic of Bashkortostan in the sub-regional context were defined. On the basis of the foresight analysis, a three-level branding of agri-food products manufactured in the region was carried out, and brands within the considered rural municipalities were identified. It is concluded that foresight technologies should be used as the system tool for the formation and implementation of sustainable development strategy in rural areas of the Republic of Bashkortostan.
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Jore, Sissel Haugdal, Inger-Lise Førland Utland, and Victoria Hell Vatnamo. "The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning." foresight 20, no. 1 (March 12, 2018): 68–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2017-0045.
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Purpose Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning. Design/methodology/approach This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex. Findings Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.
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Sheludko, Ella, and Maria Zavgorodnia. "Tools and methods of conducting pre-foresight research of the economy of Ukraine." University Economic Bulletin, no. 49 (May 22, 2021): 127–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.31470/2306-546x-2021-49-127-139.
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Relevance of research topic. Increasing the stability of economic development of the Ukrainian economy requires improving the management system with the use of modern tools, one of which in recent years has become the Foresight methodology. Foresight forecasting as an innovative tool is the most effective in the field of national competitiveness in the face of rapid change. Foresight is a special technology for designing the future based on the consolidation of disparate visions that guide the roadmap for decision-making in the medium and long term perspective. Formulation of the problem. The organization of Foresight research in Ukraine requires the use of the latest tools and expert research methods that are widely used in the world to design the future. The relevance of this study lies in a more specific and reasoned justification of the need to adapt the methodological tools of the foresight to Ukrainian realities. Analysis of recent research and publications. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study were the works of domestic and foreign scientists. In particular, focusing on the tools and methods used in the pre-Foresight stage of the study has been the focus of such foreign specialists as: E. Anselmo de Castro, N. Ya. Kalyuzhnova, M. Kinen, G. P. Korshunov, S. V. Kryukov, I. Miles, E. J. Mouse, S. Mendonya, R. Popper, R. Rohrbex, J. Tymen, B. Sapio, V. P. Tretyak, N. Chrysulakis, F. Schweizer, as well as domestic scientists: V. M. Geyts, S. I. Doroguntsov, L. V. Deineko, M. Z. Zgurovsky, T. K. Kvasha, M. O. Kizim, I. O. Kirnos, E. M. Libanova, O. I. Reshetnyak, O. F. Paladchenko, V. E. Khaustova, S. S. Shumska. Description of unexplored parts of the general problem. There is a lack of materials in the domestic scientific literature explaining the preparation for Foresight research, justification of the combination and choice of certain methods for case studies. Also, there is still no permanent practice of Foresight in Ukraine, which would be embodied in political decisions. The methodological tools for the implementation of Foresight procedures have not yet been adapted to the Ukrainian experience, which is due to the significant practical interest in the research topic and determined its theoretical and methodological value. Problem statement, the purpose of the study. Foresight research is an extremely promising tool for strategic management, the basis for the formation of the state strategy for the development of the country, region, and any field of activity. Given this fact, the task of this study is: taking into account international experience, to consistently explore a set of tools and methods used in domestic practice of planning and organizing Foresight research, which will ensure the introduction of scientific prediction technology on a regular basis and its improvement at all levels of public administration, local self-government, with the involvement of leading scientific institutions and public organizations. The purpose of the article is to substantiate the need to develop a comprehensive approach to the preparation of Foresight using world’s best practices and adapt them to the conditions of medium and long-term forecasting of the national economy. Method or methodology for conducting research. In the process of solving the problem, in particular, the following general and special methods were used: methods of system analysis, analysis and synthesis, grouping; empirical methods of comparison and generalization; dialectical method of cognition and ascent from the concrete terms to the abstract terms. Presentation of the main material (results of research). The basis of the article on pre-Foresight research of the Ukrainian economy was the study of international experience and modern approaches to the organization of pre-Foresight research, in particular, on the practical aspects of organizing the development of Foresight in terms of determining tools and methods used in its conduct. The long-term experience of Ukraine in the implementation of Foresight on various research topics is analyzed and the differences in the application of a set of methods in the implementation of Foresight research are identified. It is pointed out that Ukraine needs a more consistent and comprehensive approach in planning and organizing Foresight research of various levels and different topics. Field of application of results. Generalization of the methodology for regulation and refinement of mechanisms (tools, methods, practical organizational techniques) is important for assessing the state of the economy at the stage of pre-Foresight research for conscious use in the state innovation policy of Ukraine in determining priorities of socio-economic and scientific-technical development. Conclusions. Given that Foresight has proven to be the most effective tool for choosing long-term priorities of socio-economic, scientific and technological development, it is necessary to deepen the research on forecasting as a key tool for the development and implementation of public policy.
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Koloskova, O. I. "FORECASTING OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPMENT AT THE HIGH-TECH ENTERPRISES." Education and Science without Limits: Fundamental and Applied Researches, no. 10 (November 25, 2019): 22–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.36683/2500-249x-2019-10-22-25.
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The article is devoted to the research of scientific prediction, or foresight, for forecasting of innovative activity development of high-tech enterprises. The general technology of foresight research is described. The application purposes and directions of such technology in the study of innovative activity of domestic high-tech branches are singled out. The foresight procedure at high-tech enterprises is developed.
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Kuznetsova, Lidia, and Oleksandr Bilotserkivets'. "Forsight in Ukraine: problems of organization in the context of world practice." Ekonomìka ì prognozuvannâ 2021, no. 1 (April 10, 2021): 127–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/eip2021.01.127.
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The article presents the results of a research on world and European experience of foresight research. Attention is focused on the organization of foresight research and institutional support of foresight in EU countries. The authors substantiate the necessity of expanding the practice of foresight research in Ukraine in the conditions of those changes in the nature of the world economy that occur under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and on the verge of upcoming change in the Kondratiev long cycles. Current trends in the world economy facilitate access to foreign markets, but at the same time create certain risks for national economies. Increasing competition between domestic and foreign producers for many countries means the bankruptcy of domestic enterprises, especially medium- and high-tech ones, which are unable to compete with corporations that are more powerful. Domestic prices for almost all goods increasingly depend on prices in other markets, which can form imbalance between the cost and price of labor and destroy the labor market, increasing migration of the working population, especially those with high levels of human capital, which reduces the country's opportunities in education, science and production and even multiplicatively affects economic growth. In these conditions, it becomes extremely important to determine the guidelines for future economic development and society, which actualizes the whole range of foresight research. For Ukraine, where foresight research is limited, the experience of those countries where foresight has become an integral part of strategic planning is vital. The article is devoted to the study of this experience, which identifies the basic organizational measures of foresight research, the main aspects of foresight institutionalization and the problems that hinder the development of foresight in Ukraine. The publication was prepared within the research project on "Institutional and organizational basis for the foresight research "Economy of Ukraine – 2050” « (state registration No 0121U108846).
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AMNIATTALAB, AYDA, and REZA ANSARI. "THE EFFECT OF STRATEGIC FORESIGHT ON COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE WITH THE MEDIATING ROLE OF ORGANISATIONAL AMBIDEXTERITY." International Journal of Innovation Management 20, no. 03 (March 9, 2016): 1650040. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1363919616500407.
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In the recent, the aspect of foresight is considered globally important. Specially, it has gained a meaningful position in strategic planning. This study examines the quantitative relationships between strategic foresight, ambidexterity and competitiveness of firms. Based on the literature review, it appears that strategic foresight has positive impact on organisational ambidexterity which in turn contributes to competitive advantage. We have utilised structural equations modeling (SEM) to empirically test the mentioned relationships in Iran’s nanotechnology firms. Results show that the degree of strategic foresight has a direct effect on organisational ambidexterity which in turn affects competitive advantage.
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Kahan, James P. "Educating researchers in the metadiscipline of foresight." foresight 22, no. 5/6 (June 5, 2020): 703–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-03-2020-0022.
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Purpose The science of Foresight differs from the commonplace notion of what a science is because it is a metadiscipline – a logical type of science higher than the logical type of disciplinary sciences. It is practical, uses transdisciplinary processes that combine scientific disciplines and often examines counterfactuals in a scientific manner. This study aims to demonstrate that Foresight is a science, by presenting a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science. Design/methodology/approach The methods of scientific education that have served us well in the past are inadequate for metadisciplinary sciences such as Foresight. The paper discusses what metadisciplinarity is, using a variety of examples, and distinguishes it from disciplines and ways of crossing disciplinary boundaries. Understanding the essential characteristics of Foresight as a metadisciplinary science leads to identifying current best practices and possible educational innovations in undergraduate education that will facilitate obtaining Foresight skills. Throughout the paper, examples are drawn from the education and professional experience of the author in the USA and Europe. Findings This paper demonstrates that Foresight is a science and presents a number of best practices and potential innovations in higher education that could facilitate obtaining skills for Foresight science. It identifies barriers to those innovations and approaches to overcome them. Originality/value This viewpoint paper clarifies the meaning of the terms interdisciplinarity, transdisciplinarity and metadisciplinarity to identify the essential characteristics of Foresight as a science. Then, it identifies and advocates needed changes in North American higher education to provide earlier and more efficient opportunities for Foresight researchers and users to obtain the skills they need.
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Park, Seongwon. "A possible metric for assessing self-efficacy toward postulated futures." foresight 20, no. 1 (March 12, 2018): 50–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2017-0044.
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Purpose This paper raises a question of how to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity. Among the various assessments of foresight activity, the author explores how to develop and assess an individual’s abilities in relation to foresight activity. More specifically, the author suggests a possible metric for assessing how foresight activity can help individuals cultivate self-efficacy toward postulated futures. This paper aims to propose that researchers and practitioners working in foresight can leverage the concept of self-efficacy toward futures to develop a method of evaluating foresight activities on an individual level. Design/methodology/approach To assess the concept of self-efficacy toward futures, this research identifies the factors that could create a possible metric of self-efficacy with respect to various futures on an individual level. For this study, citizens living in Korea participated in a futures studies program, where the author measured and analyzed to what extent participatory foresight activities could help these individuals perceive their own self-efficacy toward futures. The changes in the participants’ attitudes were measured by conducting the survey before and after the program. Findings Based on the literature review and a survey, the author crafted a potential self-efficacy in relation to a scale of futures, which consists of four subscales: an ability to shape new meanings, an ability to challenge the status quo, an ability to make a decision and put it into action and an ability to learn something new by cooperating with others. These abilities are believed to be relevant elements to prepare for, adapt to and evolve with social changes. This paper also uses the possible metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight activity in Korea and argues that foresight activity helps Korean individuals perceive self-efficacy toward postulated futures. Originality/value Researchers attempted to answer the question of what foresight activities are generally useful to laypersons. The author proposes that perceiving self-efficacy toward futures is one of the efficacies that foresight pursues. The author endeavors to create a metric to assess the effectiveness of foresight attempts to identify which capabilities can be developed through participation in foresight activities.
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Abuzaid, Ahmad Nasser, Yazan Emnawer Al Haraisa, and Manal Mohammad Alateeq. "The Mediating Effect of Dynamic Capabilities on the Relationship Between Strategic Foresight and Strategic Renewal: Evidence from Islamic Banks in Jordan." International Journal of Professional Business Review 7, no. 2 (September 1, 2022): e0369. http://dx.doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2022.v7i2.369.
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Purpose: The present study aimed to examine the mediating effect that dynamic capabilities may have on the relationship between strategic foresight and strategic renewal. Design/methodology/ approach: The present study relied on quantitative and qualitative methods. More specifically, the authors used a cross-sectional design and survey strategy. Three hundred and three participants were selected randomly from four Islamic banks operating in Jordan completed the study questionnaire. A structural equation modeling technique was employed to test the study hypotheses by using SmartPLS 3 software package. Findings: The results demonstrated that strategic foresight and dynamic capabilities have a significant and positive effect on strategic renewal. Also, the results illustrated that the dynamic capabilities have a partial mediating effect on the relationship between strategic foresight and strategic renewal. Research limitations: The results of the present study relate to Islamic banks in Jordan; hence the ability to generalize the findings to other sectors is limited. Another limitation is respondent bias because the study design relies heavily on the participants’ perceptions. Practical implementation: Used properly, strategic foresight allows managers to see how events in the external environment influence their organizations’ performance. Thus, managers can use strategic foresight for making corrections in plans, policies, strategies, and objectives to get performance back on track using their organizations’ dynamic capabilities. Originality: Despite the amount of research and studies that have been devoted to understanding strategic foresight, dynamic capabilities, and strategic renewal over the last decades, the relationship between these three constructs has never been studied collectively. Therefore, the present study fills this gap in the literature.
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Hideg, Eva, Erzsébet Nováky, and Péter Alács. "Interactive foresight on the Hungarian SMEs." Foresight 16, no. 4 (August 5, 2014): 344–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-12-2012-0091.
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Purpose – The aim of this study is to present a concept of interactive foresight process, its theoretical and methodological considerations and a foresight exercise concerning the development of knowledge economy in the Central Hungarian Region. Design/methodology/approach – A methodology of interactive foresight process for creating regional future concepts is developed, which is based on a specific meaning of integral futures and uses online solutions, too. Findings – Personal meetings with small and medium enterprise (SME) stakeholders and the works of interactive communications with feedbacks within and among stakeholder groups was organized around the research homepage. The networking created the interconnection and the feedbacks between the stakeholders and the futurist group in the process of shaping regional future ideas. The online networking is running. Research limitations/implications – The low number of stakeholders can limit the validity and acceptance of futures ideas created by this process. Practical implications – The developed interactive foresight process can also be applicable at different organizational levels and in different fields for shaping shared future ideas. Social implications – Application of interactive foresight process can contribute to the development of anticipatory democracy. Originality/value – A theoretically based interactive foresight process has been developed in which stakeholders can participate not only interactively in the foresight process but they can implement the achievements in their enterprising activity as well. The participants were interested in foresight and cooperative during the whole process because they learned the use of foresight tools through collective solution of practical tasks which were important for them.
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Mahmood, Tariq, and Aleem Ahmed. "Technology Foresight Exercise in Pakistan: A Case Study." Science, Technology and Development 34, no. 4 (April 1, 2015): 242–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.3923/std.2015.242.248.
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Kononiuk, Anna, and Ewa Glińska. "Foresight in a Small Enterprise. A Case Study." Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 213 (December 2015): 971–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.11.513.
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Kuznetsova, Lidiia, and Oleksandr Bilotserkivets'. "Forsight in Ukraine: problems of organization in the context of world practice." Economy and forecasting 2021, no. 1 (May 30, 2021): 102–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/econforecast2021.01.102.
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The article presents the results of a research on world and European experience of foresight research. Attention is focused on the organization of foresight research and institutional support of foresight in EU countries. The authors substantiate the necessity of expanding the practice of foresight research in Ukraine in the conditions of those changes in the nature of the world economy that occur under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and on the verge of upcoming change in the Kondratiev long cycles. Current trends in the world economy facilitate access to foreign markets, but at the same time create certain risks for national economies. Increasing competition between domestic and foreign producers for many countries means the bankruptcy of domestic enterprises, especially medium- and high-tech ones, which are unable to compete with corporations that are more powerful. Domestic prices for almost all goods increasingly depend on prices in other markets, which can form imbalance between the cost and price of labor and destroy the labor market, increasing migration of the working population, especially those with high levels of human capital, which reduces the country's opportunities in education, science and production and even multiplicatively affects economic growth. In these conditions, it becomes extremely important to determine the guidelines for future economic development and society, which actualizes the whole range of foresight research. For Ukraine, where foresight research is limited, the experience of those countries where foresight has become an integral part of strategic planning is vital. The article is devoted to the study of this experience, which identifies the basic organizational measures of foresight research, the main aspects of foresight institutionalization and the problems that hinder the development of foresight in Ukraine
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Woodgate, Derek, and Helga Veigl. "Exploring the Future of Universities Through Experimental Foresight." World Futures Review 12, no. 4 (December 2020): 322–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1946756720976714.
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Throughout 2018/2019, The Futures Lab, Inc. (TFL) was commissioned to undertake a comprehensive foresight study on the potential futures for universities in Norway. For the most part, the project followed the full, TFL comprehensive six-stage foresight process and a number of customized approaches that leveraged the specificities of the Norwegian Education System. The foresight project covered two future time horizons, namely 2025 to 2030 and 2031 to 2040. Rather than focus here on the Future of the University project itself, this paper considers five experimental foresight methods that produced an extra edge to the creative inputs to this project and delivered some unexpected and critical insights that became decisive platforms and framing cues for the ultimate seven futures scenarios that were delivered, and for which strategies and action plans were created. The term experimental foresight is interpreted as freeform thinking, testing the boundaries, incorporating unorthodox, disparate approaches, tools, artifacts and environment, and real-time improvization, it is about testing new techniques and repurposing and updating older ones. Experimental foresight is closely allied with and some would claim often indistinguishable from experiential futures, which has become prominent within foresight. We distinguish the two insomuch that experiential refers to the way the foresight is conducted, whereas experimental is what is conducted. The paper describes the five experimental foresight methods and techniques based upon theory, practice and proprietary development processes, reflecting various approaches to creative thinking. The paper outlines the design and architecture of each method as well as how it was applied to the Future of the University project, the outcomes, values and benefits. Where appropriate examples of the outcomes have been used to explain or underpin the purpose and benefits of the method under discussion. The methods selected are always harmonized with the more linear, mathematical and modeling applied in the practice of foresight.
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Putra, Angga Kiryaditama. "ANALYSIS OF BPK LEGAL BASIS FOR FORESIGHT AUDITORS FOR THE ACCELERATED ACHIEVEMENT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS." Jurnal Tata Kelola dan Akuntabilitas Keuangan Negara 6, no. 2 (December 28, 2020): 103–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.28986/jtaken.v6i2.383.
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Law Number 15 of 2004 and Law Number 15 of 2006 only lay down the authority of the BPK in conducting audits in general and the types of audits that can be conducted by BPK. These regulations, however, do not specifically and explicitly provide the authority to the conduct of a foresight audit. Foresight audit launched by BPK in the 2016-2020 BPK Strategic Plan will be very important in the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs) by 2030, given that the BPK will provide feedback and suggestions on important future policies to accelerate the achievement of SDGs. Legal instruments have an important role for BPK as the legal basis for the institution in achieving the Highest Maturity Model of the Accountability Organization in conducting a foresight audit. This study employs a normative legal research method that aims to explore and study regulations that support BPK as a foresight auditor in the future. The results illustrate that the legal basis or legal instruments for the exercise of BPK’s foresight audit authority is sufficient but still needs to be improved. The addition of legal instruments and authorities can be a solution to ensure that any foresight audit performed in the future can run optimally and accelerate the achievement of the SDGs.
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Vuori, Johanna. "A foresight process as an institutional sensemaking tool." Education + Training 57, no. 1 (February 9, 2015): 2–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/et-07-2013-0090.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine how a foresight project supports institutional positioning efforts through joint sensemaking. Design/methodology/approach – This paper describes a case study that investigated the design, implementation, and outcomes of a foresight project at a Finnish higher education institution that selected sales and services as its institutional focus areas. According to the institutional strategy, all students should have acquired solid sales and service skills before the completion of their studies. The foresight methods used in this study were e-Delphi, futures workshops, and futures narratives. The data gathered in this iterative foresight process resulted in the delineation of eight future sales and service roles and their related competences, which were subsequently used for redesigning curricula, new programme development, and personnel training. Findings – With the careful choice of foresight methods, the organisation was not only able to define future competence needs based on the collective wisdom of its stakeholders, but also fostered the organisation’s strategic transformation process. Practical implications – This paper gives insight into how to use a foresight process to foster institution-wide change. Originality/value – This is one of only a few studies on how higher education institutions could implement their positioning strategies.
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ROGACHEVSKYI, Oleksandr. "CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF PROVIDING FORESIGHT METHODOLOGY IN THE STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATIONAL HEALTH CARE SECTOR." Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics 5, no. 3 (September 7, 2020): 304–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2020-3-33.
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Introduction. The use of strategic tools to manage the health sector is currently an urgent problem for Ukraine. Foresight technology aims to democratize the processes of socio-economic regulation and management in the national environment of the country, which provides a social function in the health sector. The purpose of the article is to propose a conceptual model for providing a foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector. Results. The analysis of the factors influencing the foresight methodology for the healthcare sector, in the structure of which endogenous and exogenous factors occupy a special place. The model for providing the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the national health care sector was proposed. The scenarios used in the foresight methodology should show the possible alternative changes in the relevant environment of the national health care sector and their impact on the prospects of strategic development of the medical sector, as well as the reverse impact of medical technology on the industry. It should be emphasized that the scenarios effectively complement the results of SWOT-analysis, brainstorming, patent analysis, cross-interaction research, etc., as the structured system of methodical tools of the foresight methodology is constantly changing. The system of methods used in foresight methodology is analyzed. The application of foresight technology for the analysis of scenarios for further development of the Covid-19 pandemic is analyzed. Conclusions. According to the results of the study, it is proved that in the conditions of transparent transformations of the national healthcare sector, the application of the foresight methodology will allow to raise to a new level measures to create a modern model of medical facilities in the country, providing quality medical services to citizens of the country. The application of the foresight methodology in the strategic development of the country's healthcare sector will provide a visualization of the probable trend of development of the medical sphere and its components, through the socio-economic and innovation-technological component. Keywords: healthcare, strategic management, strategy, healthcare industry, foresight.
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Fernández Güell, José Miguel, and Javier González López. "Cities futures. A critical assessment of how future studies are applied to cities." foresight 18, no. 5 (September 12, 2016): 454–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-06-2015-0032.
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Purpose This paper aims to assess recent foresight exercises applied to cities by evaluating three major issues. Have foresight practitioners understood cities complexity? Have urban planners used adequate tools to generate plausible future visions? Are city policy makers using foresight studies to limit urban uncertainty? Design/methodology/approach In total, 20 city foresight examples were selected which either have international relevance or which constitute good examples of future-oriented initiatives. Case studies were classified into five taxonomies: European Union initiatives; local initiatives; academic initiatives; corporate initiatives; and architectural initiatives. A set of assessment criteria was established: city complexity conceptualization; methodological approach; and study impact. Findings Preliminary research outcomes show growing doubts about the appropriateness of the foresight tools used in cities and about the competency of foresight practitioners in understanding the complex and dynamic nature of contemporary cities. Furthermore, policy makers do not seem to grasp the potential of foresight to formulate urban strategies. Research limitations/implications Some of the initiatives studied are relatively recent, so impact analysis has been limited by available data. Mostly, secondary documented sources were used to validate cases’ assessment. Research suggests a number of areas in which foresight studies may have a practical application to the urban realm. Originality/value The value of the present work lies in the effort for assessing and improving forward-looking activities undertaken at cities through a set of criteria which take into consideration the complexity and diversity of contemporary cities.
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Muidh Saleh Al-Maghdi, Muidh Saleh Al-Maghdi. "Foresight Competency Styles Upon Academic Leaders at King Abdulaziz University: أنماط كفاءة الاستشراف لدى القيادات الأكاديمية بجامعة الملك عبد العزيز." مجلة العلوم الإقتصادية و الإدارية و القانونية 6, no. 11 (May 1, 2022): 1–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.26389/ajsrp.q061221.
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The study aimed to identify the reality of foresight competence styles upon academic leaders at king Abdulaziz University. and to reveal if there are statistically significant differences between academic leaders due to the different variables (gender, years of experience). The researcher used the descriptive approach, in its survey style, and the researcher used the Foresight Styles Assessment (FSA) scale designed by (Dian, 2009) and developed by (Gary, 2009) and distributed to a sample of (50) individuals from the study population, whose number is (350), and the study concluded that the efficiency of foresight among academic leaders at King Abdulaziz University in general came with an average of (3.84 out of 5), that is, with a (high) efficiency. As for their prevailing foresight patterns, the (adaptive) pattern came in the first order; With an average of (4.01), then the insightful with an average of (3.93) and thirdly the experimenter with an average of (3.80), all of them with a degree of efficiency (high) and finally the pattern of waiting with an average of (3.36) and an estimate of efficiency (medium), and the results concluded that there are no statistically significant differences at the level of significance (0.05). ) between the averages of the academic leaders' responses about the patterns of their foresight efficiency, in their four types, according to the variables of gender or years of experience. In light of the previous results, the researcher recommended the establishment of a center at King Abdulaziz University to be concerned with forward-looking studies; To develop the capabilities of the foresight leaders, and invest them in carrying out prospective studies in all fields, and to disseminate and enhance the skills and tools of scientific foresight in the academic community at King Abdulaziz University and all universities in the Kingdom.
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Vishnevskiy, Konstantin, and Andrei Yaroslavtsev. "Russian S&T Foresight 2030: case of nanotechnologies and new materials." foresight 19, no. 2 (April 10, 2017): 198–217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-08-2016-0041.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to apply Foresight methodology to the area of nanotechnologies and new materials within the framework of Russian S&T Foresight 2030 aimed at revelation of major trends, most promising products and technologies. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this goal, best international practice was analyzed that provided a solid basis for Russian S&T Foresight 2030 (section “Nanotechnology and new materials”). The study used a wide range of advanced Foresight methods adapted to Russian circumstances. During the Foresight study, the authors integrated “market pull” and research “technology push” approaches including both traditional methods (priority-setting, roadmaps, global challenges analysis) and relatively new approaches (horizon scanning, weak signals, wild cards, etc.). Findings Using the methods of the Foresight, the authors identified trends with the greatest impact on the sphere of nanotechnology and new materials, promising markets, product groups and potential areas of demand for Russian innovation technologies and developments in this field. The authors assessed the state-of-the-art of the domestic research in the area of nanotechnologies and new materials to identify “white spots”, as well as parity zone and leadership, which can be the basis for integration into international alliances and positioning of Russia as a center of global technological development in this field. Originality/value The results of applying Foresight methodology toward revelation of the most prospective S&T areas in the field of nanotechnologies and new materials can be used by a variety of stakeholders including federal and regional authorities, technology platforms and innovation and industrial clusters, leading universities and scientific organizations in formulation of their research and strategic agenda. Russian businesses including both large companies and small and medium-sized enterprises can use results of the study in creating their strategic R&D programs and finding appropriate partners.
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Butter, Maurits, and Joost Hoogendoorn. "Foresight versus FP7: comparing innovations in healthcare." Foresight 10, no. 6 (October 15, 2008): 39–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/14636680810918577.
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PurposeThe EU Framework Programme and the foresight community are both focusing on future developments in innovation. This paper seeks to answer the questions: How much can they learn from one another to enhance their visions on the future? Are both perspectives aligned?Design/methodology/approachThis research used the Dynamo approach, which analyses the match and mismatch of innovation entities by characterising both by a codified taxonomy on innovation. This taxonomy is based on the experience of TNO in innovation. In total, 140 flagship foresight activities from the EFMN database are analysed, as well as the Working Programmes 2007‐2008 from FP7 Cooperation.FindingsThe findings show that the perspectives of FP7 and the foresight community on innovations in health are highly aligned. Some interesting mismatches are identified that can be taken up by FP8 and the foresight community. Only a limited number of innovation themes are not addressed by both perspectives.Practical implicationsThese results can help the foresight community to focus on important innovation themes in health not generally addressed and give input to the new FP7 working for 2009‐2013.Originality/valueThe results of the study show a more detailed insight into what innovation topics foresight and FP7 are mentioning/addressing.
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Vicente Oliva, Silvia, and Angel Martinez-Sanchez. "Technology roadmapping in security and defence foresight." foresight 20, no. 6 (November 12, 2018): 635–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/fs-12-2017-0074.
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Purpose This paper aims to provide an analysis of Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is based on a content analysis of public domain Spanish Defence National Foresight Exercise, and a study directed to analyse the impact on defence technological and industrial base. Findings Foresight studies on the defence and security environment uses hybrid methodologies, but rarely involve all the stakeholders, and specially the citizens. The authors place a particular emphasis on the impact of these defence and security foresight studies, and following policies to increase the competitiveness and advanced technologies in the future. The analysis of the Spanish contractors allows an evaluation of the roadmaps as a policy instrument for the industrial defence industry. The main challenges for the next exercises in the European countries are to increase the interest in the firms’ intelligence systems, and the participation and representation of citizens as a way to guarantee their rights. Therefore, a technology roadmap must be complemented with other more participative foresight methods. Originality/value Foresight studies on the defence and security environment have been the subject of very few systematic analyses of impact. This paper makes a contribution to such analysis.
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Semenova, L. M., and Kačans V. "Functions of a professional brand-building foresight technology in modelling the competitiveness of university graduates in the labour market." Education and science journal 23, no. 9 (November 12, 2021): 11–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.17853/1994-5639-2021-9-11-45.
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Introduction. The emergence of social, political and economic processes in the modern world leads to the development of innovative educational technologies, among which the researchers’ attention is drawn to a professional brand-building foresight technology. The professional brand-building foresight technology is a system of principles, methods and techniques for expert analysis of current achievements of students, young professionals and anyone who seeks self-improvement. Moreover, this training technology includes the development of programmes to optimise the professional and personal self-development of an individual in terms of his/her possible career growth.The aim of the current research was to justify the professional brand-building foresight technology developed by the authors, and to check the effectiveness of its application in the formation of brand-building and foresight competencies in a future specialist in the educational process of higher education.Methodology and research methods. The theoretical and methodological strategy in the study is a competency-based approach, which contributes to the formation of brand-building and foresight competencies. The conceptual provisions of the foresight approach, implemented in a complex of brand-forming tools of a single foresight trajectory in order to model and design a professional brand in relation to the strategic goals of a future specialist, became a practice-oriented research tactic. The authors used the following general scientific and specific scientific methods: questionnaire survey based on random systematic (mechanical) sampling, in-depth interview, expert survey, document analysis, self-assessment of readiness for personal brand-building.Results. The authors presented the professional brand-building foresight technology, the essence of which lies in the design of a professional brand and future career path. Its structure includes four programmes: self-marketing, personal branding, brand-building case and a road map to success. As a result of training, brand-building and foresight competencies are developed. The approbation experiment demonstrated that without special brand-building and foresight training of students, these competencies are formed spontaneously. Based on the results of the conducted surveys, the authors analysed the level of formation of brand-building and foresight competencies and the interest in the technology of personal brand-building as a factor of career self-development. A survey of university graduates revealed the dependence of employment on special teaching methods and the professional brand-building foresight technology. The interviews held with Russian and Latvian teachers determined the effectiveness of this technology. The study of the employers’ opinions showed the reasons that hinder the successful employment of young specialists. In addition, the authors revealed a lack of knowledge and a non-systematic limited nature of teaching these competencies in universities.Scientific novelty lies in the replenishment of interdisciplinary (at the intersection of pedagogy, brand building, forecasting, professional studies) scientific knowledge about foresight methodology. The emphasis is on the innovativeness of the professional brand-building foresight technology, which contributes to the competitiveness of university graduates and increases their chances of professional success.Practical significance. The results of the research can be useful for developing ideas about brand-building and foresight competencies development, personal brand-building, professional brand-building foresighting. The research materials can be employed by students and teachers of higher education institutions, heads of educational systems in the organisation of the educational process, as well as by various specialists and practitioners.
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Zhanbayev, Rinat, Saule Sagintayeva, Abildina Ainur, and Anton Nazarov. "The Use of the Foresight Methods in Developing an Algorithm for Conducting Qualitative Examination of the Research Activities Results on the Example of the Republic of Kazakhstan." Mathematics 8, no. 11 (November 13, 2020): 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8112024.
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In modern conditions, it is interesting to study foresight as an effective tool for identifying new strategic scientific directions. Its purpose is to develop an algorithm for conducting qualitative expertise in the application of the foresight methods with the ability to integrate forecast estimates. Currently, the vast majority of research activities results do not contribute to the innovative development of the state. To solve this problem, it is necessary to ensure a stable systemic relationship between specific sectors of the economy and higher education. The algorithm is developed on the basis of a systematic approach to the foresight methods and the use of the methods of bibliometrics, scientometrics, patent analysis and forecasting. The results and conclusions of this study are: an algorithm has been developed for conducting qualitative examination of the results of scientific activities in order to increase its practical significance, in which the authors propose the foresight methods as the most optimal tool for choosing priority areas of science and technology. Putting this approach into practice will make it possible to increase the efficiency of the foresight methods by both reducing time costs, and rationally using monetary and human resources.