Academic literature on the topic 'Foreign market potential'

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Journal articles on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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Ozturk, Ayse, Eric Joiner, and S. Tamer Cavusgil. "Delineating Foreign Market Potential: A Tool for International Market Selection." Thunderbird International Business Review 57, no. 2 (January 28, 2015): 119–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/tie.21686.

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Taylor, Robert. "The New Chinese Consumer: Potential Markets for Foreign Companies." Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics 6, no. 2 (July 1995): 101–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/02601079x9500600201.

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In 1978 the Chinese leaders launched the open door policy, committing themselves to an ambitious programme of macroeconomic reform in order to enable China to join the ranks of developed countries during the early decades of the twenty-first century. An integral part of that policy is the utilisation of market forces to make China’s goods competitive at home and abroad. Under the terms of a market economy, rising living standards, on which the leadership has staked its legitimacy, are increasingly seen as key incentives for China’s workforce and management. Increasing personal discretionary income is in turn creating more consumer demand, even though there are already widening disparities in wealth between urban and rural residents. Greater purchasing power for a wide range of consumer goods in the cities is nevertheless setting a trend for future demand in the villages. Significantly, more and more sectors of the Chinese economy, including retailing and distribution, are becoming open to foreign investment, and the products of wholly owned foreign companies and joint ventures may increasingly be sold on Chinese domestic markets. Overseas manufacturers may elect to export or localise their operations. In any case China offers a range of potentially lucrative consumer markets which require careful targeting through market research and advertising.
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Pakhucha, E. V., I. O. Sievidova, and A. M. Pakhuchyi. "ECONOMIC POTENTIAL OF CROPS ON THE FOREIGN MARKET." Financial and credit activity: problems of theory and practice 3, no. 26 (September 28, 2018): 227–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v3i26.139843.

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Metcalfe, Brian. "The Market Potential of Australia's New Foreign Banks." International Journal of Bank Marketing 4, no. 2 (February 1986): 3–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/eb010774.

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Yakovleva, E., and Alisher Subkhonberdiev. "THE MARKET POTENTIAL OF INNOVATIVE FOREST PRODUCTS." Actual directions of scientific researches of the XXI century: theory and practice 8, no. 1 (October 26, 2020): 375–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.34220/2308-8877-2020-375-379.

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The article summarizes the data on the competitive advantages of innovative forest products in Russia and abroad. It is noted that the Russian market is not completely ready for innovative products that have been intensively developed recently. To ensure universal promotion of new products, it is necessary to use a system of product standardization, improve staff skills, and increase consumer literacy. The problem is that many innovative products are developed abroad and enter the Russian market as a result of foreign investment in the Russian timber industry. The production of composite structural wood materials is due to the fact that in some regions of the world there is a large proportion of low-quality wood raw materials, which cannot be used in industry in the form of balances, technological raw materials and firewood. Innovative technologies make it possible to obtain construction and structural materials from low-quality wood raw materials, in which there are no shortcomings of solid wood. New structural wood materials fill specific market niches, leading to deeper market differentiation. The price factor largely determines the demand for innovative products in the domestic market, otherwise, excess volumes of products are exported to foreign markets.
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Nitsevych, Arthur. "Potential for German investors: entering the Ukrainian market." German Law Journal 5, no. 6 (June 1, 2004): 679–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2071832200012785.

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Following the break-up of the USSR, the Ukrainian economy went into a lingering depression. In the last few years, however, its potential has been recovering: Ukraine is now one of the most successful of the former Soviet republics in attracting foreign investment. The main issue for a foreign investor is thus not whether to invest, but how best to enter the Ukrainian market.
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Kumar, V., Antonie Stam, and Erich A. Joachimsthaler. "An Interactive Multicriteria Approach to Identifying Potential Foreign Markets." Journal of International Marketing 2, no. 1 (March 1994): 29–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1069031x9400200103.

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The authors address the issue of portfolio management in the context of an international marketing problem. Screening, identification, and selection characterize the three stages in the evaluation of potential foreign markets. The proposed methodology is used for identifying potential foreign markets. This article contributes to the existing literature in four ways: (a) it integrates the past research on international market evaluation into a comprehensive framework, (b) it fills a gap in this area, by offering a flexible, cost efficient methodology that is easy to comprehend and adopt, (c) it simultaneously considers the objectives of the firm, its resource constraints, and expansion strategies while identifying potential foreign markets, and (d) it introduces a multicriteria methodology for solving problems of multiobjective decision models, to the international marketing managers.
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Khodadadi, Mohammad Rasoul, Geoff Dickson, Adel Shomali, and Roghayeh Sarlab. "Determining the foreign market potential for Iranian sporting goods." International Journal of Business Excellence 22, no. 3 (2020): 418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijbex.2020.110960.

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Sarlab, Roghayeh, Adel Shomali, Geoff Dickson, and Mohammad Rasoul Khodadadi. "Determining the foreign market potential for Iranian sporting goods." International Journal of Business Excellence 1, no. 1 (2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/ijbex.2019.10023283.

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Hopkins, Willie. "Knowledge sufficiency: when institutional distance is insufficient." Journal of Strategy and Management 7, no. 3 (August 12, 2014): 284–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jsma-06-2013-0039.

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Purpose – For firms entering a foreign market for the first time, institutional distance can be thought of as being insufficient in the sense that knowledge gap issues associated with large distances are not easily resolved. The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of knowledge sufficiency and the implications that this concept holds for assuaging these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The concept of knowledge sufficiency is developed into a practical framework. The framework is comprised of the knowledge that firms accumulate about potential host countries. This accumulated knowledge is disaggregated into components that provide the basic structure of the knowledge sufficiency framework and facilitate a systematic assessment of accumulated knowledge. Findings – Accumulated knowledge about foreign market risk factors that exist in potential host countries is disaggregated into three components. The breadth of knowledge component is designed to help answer the question: what do firms know about foreign market risk factors in potential host countries? The depth of knowledge component is designed to help answer the question: how much do firms know about foreign market risk factors in potential host countries. The quality of knowledge component is designed to answer the question: are firms confident in what they know about foreign market risk factors in potential host countries? Research limitations/implications – There is a tendency for strategic decision makers in firms to feel that they have “deep” knowledge of foreign market risk factors when they may actually have only “surface” knowledge of these factors. The result is likely to be an unwarranted lowering of the risk they perceive to exist in potential host countries. Consequently, the host country selected for entry may not be optimal and the mode of entry may be inappropriate. The issue to be resolved is how to ascertain how much knowledge firms actually possess about these foreign market risk factors. Practical implications – Selecting the “right” foreign market and entering that market in the “right” way is unquestionably one of the most important topics in the international literature and has been extensively studied. However, there is no central repository of finding from these studies that will help firms going international for the first time to systematically assess whether their choice of market and entry mode is optimal. Utilization of the knowledge sufficiency framework will significantly improve firms’ chances of entering the “right” foreign markets in the “right” way, which holds practical implications for their initial and long-term performance in these markets. Originality/value – For firms entering a foreign market for the first time, answers to two questions are essential: what foreign market should we enter? How should we enter that foreign market? The extant literature does not provide a framework that allows firms to systematically search for answers to these questions such that, when satisfactorily found, will boost confidence that answers to these two questions are optimized. In addition to filling an important gap in the extant literature, the framework's usefulness as an aid for making internationalization decisions also makes an important contribution to practice.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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卓季宇 and Kwai-yu Theresa Cheuk. "Opportunities and potential of the Vietnam market for foreigners." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1993. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31265601.

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Cheuk, Kwai-yu Theresa. "Opportunities and potential of the Vietnam market for foreigners /." [Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong], 1993. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13731063.

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Daoud, Dana, and Veronica Högfeldt. "Expanding into new markets : Is Lebanon a potential market for Swedish fast fashion companies?" Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Textilhögskolan, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-17106.

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The aim of the thesis is to describe and analyze the potential in a new and foreign market and the market we chose to define is Lebanon. We want to see if there is any potential for Swedish fashion companies to establish there and what kind of problems and barriers the companies could bump into if they decide to expand their operations to Lebanon.The theories that the study is based on are Push & Pull, The Uppsala-model, the Internationalization model, international market environments and the entry modes.Lebanon is a potential market for Swedish fashion companies. It is a market with a big consumer group that likes to spend money on fashion. Since Sweden is famous for fashion that comes with both good quality and price, it would profit them if they entered the Lebanese market. Companies should travel to Lebanon and experience the market and the potential there by themselves, before they enter it. It is important that companies which are in the starting hole to expand to a newmarket collect as much information as possible about it before establishing there to be able to succeed.
Program: Magisterutbildning i Fashion Management
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Gould, Richard Robert, and RichardGould@ozemail com au. "International market selection-screening technique: replacing intuition with a multidimensional framework to select a short-list of countries." RMIT University. Social Science & Planning, 2002. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20081125.145312.

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The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A
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Andom, Rebecka, and Patricia Joxelius. "Entering Japan : A qualitative literary study on potential barriers to market entry for Swedish retail companies in Japan." Thesis, Högskolan i Borås, Institutionen Textilhögskolan, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hb:diva-16783.

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Background and problem: There are strong incentives for Swedish retail companies to establish their business in Japan. With its 128 million inhabitants the country accounts for 40 percent of the total world consumption of luxury goods and is the world’s largest importer of foreign fashion. Moreover, Japan is the second largest retail market in the world. However, as a company in a foreign market there are many obstacles to overcome. A Swedish retail company aiming to enter the Japanese market does not have the same insight and knowledge into the formal and informal institutions in the country as a domestic company might have. Furthermore, Japan is experiencing complaints from both business organisations and foreign politicians regarding the trade practices in the country arguing that the Japanese market is not receptive enough to Western products. A company that moreover aims to enter markets where both the cultural and actual distance is far away from the business’ home country shall preferably realize the complexity of such a decision and be as prepared as possible. Purpose: The purpose of the study is that “through a literary study identify and provide a deeper understanding of the major entry barriers a Swedish retail company may encounter when entering the Japanese market”. The following research questions were developed in order to reach the purpose: “What are the main industry and institution-based barriers a Swedish retail company may encounter when establishing its business in Japan?” and “What are the main cultural barriers a Swedish retail company may encounter when establishing its business in Japan?”Methodology: When conducting the study, a descriptive research approach has been used. The study is of a qualitative nature and the design of the study is a descriptive literary study. Performing a literary study involves the collection of data from already published scientific articles, journals and dissertations. The data used for this study consist of eight scientific articles and journals and one dissertation. Conclusions: The analysis was based on the theories, which explains a company’s decisions of where, when and how to enter a foreign market as well as theories that explains a nation’s cultural impact on an organisation. Based on the findings the results were divided into two sections. The study reached the conclusion that among the industry and institution-based barriers the high level of rivalry among firms, the high level of bargaining power of suppliers, the high standards regarding quality and service, regulatory risks, trade barriers and institutional norms were the most important barriers to market entry for foreign companies in Japan. The most important cultural barriers to market entry in Japan were the high level of collectivism, power distance, uncertainty avoidance and masculinity in the country.
Program: Master in Fashion Management with specialisation in Fashion Marketing and Retailing
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Zhao, Jing. "The potential impact of the General Agreement on Trade in Services on the market access of foreign banks into China, a Chinese perspective." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/mq36094.pdf.

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Kang, Jun-Koo. "The international market for corporate control : mergers and acquisitions of U.S. firms by Japanese firms and potential sources of gains in foreign takeovers." Connect to resource, 1991. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1265129598.

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Britain-Renecke, Cézanne. "Potential alternative sources of funding South Africa's land redistribution programme in its agricultural sector." University of the Western Cape, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/3048.

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Fast, Sara, and Mirjam Ling. "A Retail Expansion in the UK : A qualitative analysis of smaller Scandinavian fashion companies' expansion options and market potentials in the UK market." Thesis, Högskolan i Halmstad, Sektionen för ekonomi och teknik (SET), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hh:diva-19748.

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The fashion industry has become an industry with high attention, and in recent years Swedish fashion has become a strong name internationally. At the same time, it is a competitive industry where smaller fashion companies are competing with big clothing chains. For these actors it is important to internationalise and enter foreign markets to be able to grow. This requires resources and capital that many of the smaller fashion companies today is missing; market knowledge, export knowledge and commercial knowledge.  This makes it interesting to see what factors are important for smaller Scandinavian fashion companies to succeed in establishing on the international market. The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate and analyze conditions for three smaller Scandinavian fashion companies' internationalisation process. The study is based on case studies of these fashion companies. Theories have been chosen according to the background. These highlights the importance for companies to have knowledge of their market, and how internationalisation is a process of knowledge in which they learn something from each step. Furthermore, how companies in some cases follow a particular pattern and how the establishment can be done in specific steps. It may be important to develop relations with actors in their environment.  By different theories, the authors have designed an assumption about what is important for the smaller fashion companies.  In the dissertation we have found that the most significant and important factors are collaborations, available resources internally or externally, and to have knowledge of the market. The expansion of the business as a foreign establishment means that companies need to seek help outside their organization to succeed internationally.
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Du, Plessis Jan-Adriaan. "The BRICS countries as potential destinations for multinational manufacturing enterprises (MMEs)." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/29588.

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A shift in economic power from the developed world to emerging markets has seen the BRICS countries becoming the new growth centre of the world. In 2010, half of the total global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows went to emerging economies. A large portion of these FDI flows goes to the manufacturing industry with a quarter of the global GDP being generated by the production processes of multinational manufacturing enterprises (MMEs). The challenge for the BRICS countries will be to sustain their trend in FDI inflow. Previous studies on this topic focused on the determinants of FDI at country level as opposed to an industry specific focus. The outcome of this study assists MMEs in their entering decisions and policy makers in developing policies that create an enabling environment that will attract foreign capital.This research analyses the BRICS countries as potential destinations for FDI in the manufacturing industry. The analyses followed a three phased approach. The first phase identified the potential determinants of FDI to the manufacturing industry of the BRICS countries. The second phase either validated or disproved investor perceptions about the factors that would impact on the performance of an investment. In the third and final phase of the analysis, the competitiveness of the BRICS countries in attracting FDI to the manufacturing industry was assessed.The analysis of the three hypotheses contributed to the overarching theme of evaluating the BRICS countries as potential destinations for MMEs. The outcome of the analysis highlights that countries are unique and that investor perceptions about a country’s conditions and how this will impact on the performance of an investment are not always valid. In the overall analysis of the BRICS countries as potential destinations for FDI, the majority of the BRICS countries, with the exception of South Africa, are found to be competitive destinations for attracting FDI to the manufacturing industry. On the basis of the outcome of the analysis and the methodology followed in this study, a general model that can be used in future FDI research is suggested.
Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
unrestricted
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Books on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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AMEC, Inc. Analysis of the foreign market potential for Montana processed beef. Bozeman, Mont: AMEC, 1986.

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Lewis, Karen K. Is the international diversification potential diminishing?: Foreign equity inside and outside the U.S. Cambridge, Mass: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

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Nissanke, Machiko. Revenue potential of the currency transaction tax for development finance: A critical appraisal. Helsinki: United Nations University, World Institute for Development Economics Research, 2003.

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Brenton, Paul. The initial and potential impact of preferential access to the U.S. market under the African growth and opportunity act. Washington, D.C: World Bank, 2004.

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Schmieding, Holger. Lending stability to Europe's emerging market economies: On the potential importance of the EC and the ECU for Central and Eastern Europe. Tübingen: Mohr, 1992.

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United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Foreign Relations. Subcommittee on African Affairs. Economic statecraft: Embracing Africa's market potential : hearing before the Subcommittee on African Affairs of the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundred Twelfth Congress, second session, June 28, 2012. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2012.

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Materials, United States Congress House Committee on Commerce Subcommittee on Finance and Hazardous. PNTR: Opening the world's biggest potential market to American financial services competition : hearing before the Subcommittee on Finance and Hazardous Materials of the Committee on Commerce, House of Representatives, One Hundred Sixth Congress, 2nd session, May 23, 2000. Washington: U.S. G.P.O., 2000.

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Lending stability to Europe's emerging market economies: On the potential importance of the EC and the ECU for Central and Eastern Europe (Kieler Studien). Mohr, 1992.

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Amann, Edmund. Multinational Corporations from Brazil. Edited by Edmund Amann, Carlos R. Azzoni, and Werner Baer. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190499983.013.34.

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Following an overview of relevant theoretical considerations centering on Mathews’s view of the potential sources of emerging market multinational corporation (MNC) advantage, this chapter presents a brief survey of statistical trends surrounding Brazilian outward foreign direct investment (FDI) over the past 15 years or so. The chapter characterizes the sectoral orientation of Brazilian MNCs, pointing out the significant natural-resource base (NRB) focus of many of the largest enterprises. It also considers the broad policy-related factors that have helped propel the recent surge in outward investment. The chapter concludes by considering the challenges currently facing Brazilian MNCs. Not the least of these is the current wave of corruption scandals surrounding key MNCs in the energy and construction sectors. It is argued that these partly underlie a process of consolidation and divestment that is taking place in many of Brazil’s largest MNCs.
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von Bernstorff, Jochen. “Community Interests” and the Role of International Law in the Creation of a Global Market for Agricultural Land. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198825210.003.0015.

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The chapter explores the notion of “community interests” with regard to the global “land-grab” phenomenon. Over the last decade, a dramatic increase of foreign investment in agricultural land could be observed. Bilateral investment treaties protect around 75 per cent of these large-scale land acquisitions, many of which came with associated social problems, such as displaced local populations and negative consequences for food security in Third World countries receiving these large-scale foreign investments. Hence, two potentially conflicting areas of international law are relevant in this context: Economic, social, and cultural rights and the principles of permanent sovereignty over natural resources and “food sovereignty” challenging large-scale investments on the one hand, and specific norms of international economic law stabilizing them on the other. The contribution discusses the usefulness of the concept of “community interests” in cases where the two colliding sets of norms are both considered to protect such interests.
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Book chapters on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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Song, Di, and Aiqi Wu. "Pursuing International Opportunities in a Digitally Enabled World." In Digital Entrepreneurship, 265–81. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-53914-6_13.

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AbstractDigitalization has tremendously challenged how international opportunities are created and captured. Inspired by researches in the field of both entrepreneurship and international business, this study provides a comprehensive framework toward the impact of digital technologies (DTs) on opportunity pursuit in foreign markets. We identify two perspectives of DTs, i.e., DTs as ‘driving force’ and DTs as ‘disrupting force,’ which characterize DTs as a catalyst of experiential knowledge acquisition, and as a factor altering the relative significance of experiential knowledge to opportunity pursuit, respectively. By bridging these two perspectives with the notion of market-specific knowledge and general knowledge within internationalization process theory, some arguments with regard to what specific influences DTs play on international opportunity pursuit are further introduced. We hope this study can potentially offer some nuances to both practitioners as well as the research in the interaction of digitalization and international opportunity.
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Weldon, Isaac, and Steven J. Hoffman. "Harnessing Canada’s Potential for Global Health Leadership: Leveraging Strengths and Confronting Demons." In The Palgrave Handbook of Canada in International Affairs, 483–510. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-67770-1_22.

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AbstractDespite its modest position on the international stage, Canada has been able to leverage significant influence in matters of global health. The country’s global health leadership draws on its strengths as a staunch participant in multilateral activities, a large funder of global health initiatives, a defender of a rule-based international order, and an active promoter of human rights, health equity, and global citizenship. These sources of strength, though, are being undermined by ongoing challenges to and recent deviations from the country’s traditional commitment to global health. Canada recently shifted its funding for global health initiatives away from its multilateral partnerships, recent actions have violated international law, findings from the Truth and Reconciliation Commission reveal how Canada’s Indigenous peoples still face many health disparities at home, and some Canadian businesses continue to operate in foreign markets with questionable human rights practices. While there are many reasons to celebrate Canadian contributions to global health, there is also much that can be improved. If Canada wants to harness its potential as a global health leader, it should focus on consolidating the sources of its strength, which will give it greater influence in matters of global health.
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Gaufman, Elizaveta. "Cybercrime and Punishment: Security, Information War, and the Future of Runet." In The Palgrave Handbook of Digital Russia Studies, 115–34. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42855-6_7.

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AbstractCybersecurity à la Russe is marked by the authoritarian nature of the state that is primarily concerned by the question of regime survival. This logic motivates continuous securitization of the Internet that is framed as a potential accessory to crimes committed both by foreign and domestic actors. This chapter aims to show the discrepancies in Russian cyber politics at home and abroad, highlighting its struggle for more internet regulation that is seen by the Russian government as a panacea against perceived external attempts at regime change while exploiting digital public spaces abroad. At the same time, this chapter shows that despite seemingly formidable “cyber army” capabilities for external use, domestic surveillance and attempts to build a Great Russian Firewall are still lacking.
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Miadzvetskaya, Yuliya. "Between Strategic Autonomy and International Norm-setting." In Global Studies, 261–86. Bielefeld, Germany: transcript Verlag, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.14361/9783839457474-011.

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According to the 2016 EU Global Strategy (EUGS), today's world is characterized by an increased strategic competition and rising threats to multilateralism and a rules-based order. In this fast-evolving environment, the EU has shifted from its traditional “values-based” approach in foreign policy to a “principled pragmatism”. This holds that the EU should solidify relations with countries with shared values, while also engaging strategically with rivals. The EU's goal is to protect its strategic interests in the world marked by the US-China rivalry, a confrontational relationship with the Trump administration, and Russia's growing ambitions in their shared neighborhood. The present chapter examines some aspects of the EU's efforts to secure its autonomy in an emergent terrain for international competition: cyberspace. The analysis will begin with an explanation of the broader context for the EU's approach to cybersecurity, which should be understood as part of the Union's longstanding pursuit of “strategic autonomy” in an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment. It then offers a description of deterrence theory and its application to cyberspace, before turning to the development of the EU Cyber Diplomacy toolbox and targeted restrictive measures in response to cyberattacks. It will then seek to assess the deterrence potential of restrictive measures on the basis of some generic attributes of the concept of deterrence identified in rich theoretic contributions on deterrence theory and cyberspace. It concludes that while sanctions might appear to be ineffective and non-aligned with the operational characteristics of the cyber domain, their potential for establishing good practices should not be discarded. They should instead be used as a vehicle for promoting and informing the international discourse on the norms of responsible state behavior in cyberspace.
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Kuna-Marszałek, Anetta, and Agnieszka Kłysik-Uryszek. "Outward Foreign Direct Investments." In Foreign Direct Investments, 1076–99. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2448-0.ch045.

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Dynamic changes that have taken place on Polish, European and global markets for the last two decades shifted significantly the conditions in which companies operate. Globalization, liberalization of capital flows, participation in the European Union not only increased competition on Polish market, but radically boosted the competitive potential of Polish firms. This, in turn resulted in growing interest in expanding the activity on international scale in the form of Outward Foreign Direct Investments (OFDI). Therefore, the aim of the chapter is to discuss the most important stimuli, which impact competitive potential of Polish companies and increase their interest in foreign activity. Moreover, theoretical background of company's internationalisation are presented, as well as the scale and structure of Polish OFDI and incentives provided by Polish institutions.
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Kuna-Marszałek, Anetta, and Agnieszka Kłysik-Uryszek. "Outward Foreign Direct Investments." In Global Perspectives on Trade Integration and Economies in Transition, 238–61. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-0451-1.ch012.

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Dynamic changes that have taken place on Polish, European and global markets for the last two decades shifted significantly the conditions in which companies operate. Globalization, liberalization of capital flows, participation in the European Union not only increased competition on Polish market, but radically boosted the competitive potential of Polish firms. This, in turn resulted in growing interest in expanding the activity on international scale in the form of Outward Foreign Direct Investments (OFDI). Therefore, the aim of the chapter is to discuss the most important stimuli, which impact competitive potential of Polish companies and increase their interest in foreign activity. Moreover, theoretical background of company's internationalisation are presented, as well as the scale and structure of Polish OFDI and incentives provided by Polish institutions.
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Cergibozan, Raif, and Caner Demir. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows from Turkey." In Foreign Direct Investments, 659–75. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2448-0.ch028.

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The aim of this study is to specify the determinants of the outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows from Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL Bounds Test is used in order to observe the possible relation between these flows and define potential factors that might have an effect on them. The evidences of the empirical analysis reveal that the destination countries' market size, the home country's development level, trade openness and wage rate are positively related to outward FDI while the home country's interest rate shows a negative relationship. Turkey's outward FDI is significantly determined by the opportunities of the foreign markets as well as the outstanding home country factors.
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Cergibozan, Raif, and Caner Demir. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Outflows from Turkey." In Outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Emerging Market Economies, 227–43. IGI Global, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-2345-1.ch011.

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The aim of this study is to specify the determinants of the outward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows from Turkey. For this purpose, the ARDL Bounds Test is used in order to observe the possible relation between these flows and define potential factors that might have an effect on them. The evidences of the empirical analysis reveal that the destination countries' market size, the home country's development level, trade openness and wage rate are positively related to outward FDI while the home country's interest rate shows a negative relationship. Turkey's outward FDI is significantly determined by the opportunities of the foreign markets as well as the outstanding home country factors.
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Chhabra, Shalini. "Mutual Fund." In Foreign Direct Investments, 210–24. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2448-0.ch009.

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Mutual funds provide various facilities that make saving and investing simple, accessible and affordable, by using professional management, diversification, variety of products, liquidity, affordability, convince. Moreover, strict government regulation and full disclosure of information makes the investment more secures in India. In India mutual funds market the key area of interest of market experts are understanding the investor's expectations and meeting those expectations. The mutual fund sector is one of the fast growing sectors in Indian economy and has tremendous potential for sustained future growth. The present era of exponential growth has seen changes, refinements and innovation etc. the industry needs to identify the expectation and houses of the investors and meet their expectations in a better way by overcoming the challenges the mutual fund industry is facing. Keeping in view that ever increasing competition of similar or alternative product, marketing has been concerned the most vital area of operation of Mutual funds industry. Mutual fund Marketing is different from marketing of other goods. The present chapter tries to explore the marketing strategies adopted by Mutual funds, the different 7 Ps that are involved by the various mutual funds for attracting the investors.
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Malhotra, Madhuri. "Foreign Direct Investment Opportunities in Infrastructure Development." In Foreign Direct Investments, 225–35. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2448-0.ch010.

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India's rising growth trajectory requires rapidly expanding infrastructure facilities to support it. The availability of efficient infrastructure services is an important determinant of the pace of market development and output growth. Access to affordable infrastructure services for consumption purposes serves to improve household welfare, particularly among the poor. The potential contribution of infrastructure to economic growth and poverty reduction has not been fully realized, and existing infrastructure stock and services fall far short of the requirements. The Government recognises the fact that domestic resources alone may not be adequate to sustain the required expansion in infrastructure, and hence it has followed a strategy to create incentives for Foreign Direct Investment in infrastructure sector. This study examines the current state of infrastructure in emerging India, use of FDI is infrastructure sector and policy measures to be taken up to speed up infrastructure growth in India.
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Conference papers on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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Noyan Yalman, İlkay, Mutlu Türkoğlu, and Yalçın Yalman. "Small and Medium Sizes Enterprises (SMEs) and Foreign Trade Policy." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01207.

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A high level of a country’s foreign trade is related to the growth of foreign earnings, to the acceleration of investments, to increase employment and contributes significantly to the growth of the country's economy. In this context, SMEs as one of the mile stones of the economy, foreign trade and economic growth are located in the leading roles. Especially SMEs sufficiently developed oppressed against strong opponents abroad, government policies or practices in trade restrictive policies are some of the reasons for this downside. SMEs that exports goods, or the infrastructure needed to produce goods for SMEs who import raw materials as well as the country's foreign trade policies and developments in the world economy is important. SMEs to follow the development, recognizing competitors, new markets, new products is very important in terms of growth both business and the countries. In this study, SMEs engaged in foreign trade in Sivas Province performing an application on in terms of both the business and government policy at the local level status will be examined. Data will be obtained on issues such as ultimately foreign trade potential of existing SMEs while doing foreign trade problems they face, strengths and weaknesses, market policies at national and international levels, the opinions about the state's foreign trade policy. The results obtained from the data on SMEs engaged in foreign trade by making general inferences about the data obtained on a micro scale, will allow making inferences on the macro scale.
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Reel, Yeşim. "The Dependency Game and Potential Gains in Energy Sector of Eurasia." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c01.00195.

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The integration of the Eurasian super-continent will potentially have major implications for the Eurasian region, and also for the world economy. Traditionally, economic integration has ben analyzed and measured mostly with regard to trade and transport linkages. Turning from the most obvious linkages in energy to other areas, the first point to be made is that the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) had a devastating impact on trade within the former Soviet regional trading bloc known as COMECON (Linn and Tiomkin,2007). Opening Greater Central Asia to continental trade in energy and goods would give countries in the region greater access to foreign technology and foreign exchange revenue, increase market access. Forecasts about the positive effects of construction and restoration of road corridors suggest there could be enormous gains (Norling and Swanström,2007). Moreover, potential gains in energy transit are also massive (Pandian,2005). It is stated that the increasing demand for Eurasian energy is creating a very interesting dependency game involving three groups of countries. The existing dependencies are based on a number of variables (Svedberg,2007). The aim of this paper is to analyze the current situation, the dependency game and potential gains in Eurasia’s energy sector. The current situation’s analysis presents a framework which shows Eurasia’s energy sector’s data, trends and problems. The dependency game indicates the linkages between different countries which are related to the sector, and these countries’ positions. The potential gains are important particularly in energy production, energy projects and energy trade for Eursia. Considering all these, first part presents introduction. The second part analyzes the current situation, the dependency game and, gives outcomes of this dependency in the sector. Third part presents the potential gains for this sector. Last part gives a conclusion.
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Gerni, Cevat, Selahattin Sarı, Ömer Selçuk Emsen, and Burhan Kabadayı. "Foreign Direct Investment in Transition Economies: Is It Related to Export Expansion or Import Substitution?" In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00968.

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It is propounded that there are two motivations behind foreign direct investments (FDI). One of them is to invest in foreign countries because of trade barrier to export. In this case foreign investors operate in import substitution industries (ISI). The second fact to invest in another country away from homeland is to get benefit from cost advantages such as cheap labor and inputs, positioning closed to developed countries. With this aspect foreign investors operate in export oriented sectors (EOS). The economic consequences were discussed lighting on study’s aim examining the FDI to Transitions Countries whether are ISI or EOS. The foreign direct investments to Transitions Countries were investigated by panel data analysis. First and second generation unit root tests and cross section dependency tests were applied. Long and short term regressions were realized. The data set were obtained from Word Bank Data Base and annually data were collected between 1993 and 2012. Theoretically and statistically expected coefficients and coefficient’s sign for explanatory variables have been obtained. It is as a result observed that the countries have higher internal market potential to take foreign direct investments to import substitution industries. The countries close to developed economies have been drawing foreign direct investments to export oriented sectors.
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Reyhan, Hakan, and Ahmet Mutlu. "The Future of Multinational Corporation Investments In Turkey: An Evaluation of Environmental and Natural Sources Investments." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00474.

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It’s well known that receiving foreign investments is one of the main targets of Turkey’s economic policies since 1980’s. As a result of these policies, foreign-capitalized companies have considerable market shares in many sectors from automotive to mining, from food and beverage to petroleum, from agriculture to chemicals, from construction to pharmaceutical products. On the other hand, in last year’s there is a remarkable and growing public reaction to the foreign investments especially investments related to natural resources and environmental areas. Thus, in near future MNC’s which wanted to invest in Turkey would need to take more attention to public’s tendencies then government policies. In this study, main policies concerning MNC investments in Turkey will be evaluated and public’s approaches to foreign investments in environmental and natural resources will be discussed. In this study government perspectives of the foreign investments made by MNC’s and stimulation policies for foreign investments made by MNC’s will be evaluated in terms of sustainable development policies. Then, public’s reactions which raised especially after 2000’s to the foreign investments in environmental and natural resources and potential results of these reactions for future investments will be evaluated. Method of the study, based on literature review, and analysis of statistics and social event. In the study, the sensitivity against environmental and natural resource investments was found to be active in the past. Thus, MNC, for this type of investment, must more focus on changes in Turkey.
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Vlasov, Dmitry. "SYNERGY OF THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY ELECTRONIC PLATFORM FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY PARTICIPANTS AND UNIFIED AUTOMATED INFORMATION SYSTEM OF CUSTOMS SERVICES (UAIS) AS A BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGY FOR RUSSIAN TRANSIT POTENTIAL GROWING AND STRENGTHENING COOPERATION IN THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET." In Globalistics-2020: Global issues and the future of humankind. Interregional Social Organization for Assistance of Studying and Promotion the Scientific Heritage of N.D. Kondratieff / ISOASPSH of N.D. Kondratieff, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46865/978-5-901640-33-3-2020-128-138.

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The implementation of communication identification tools in form of comprehensive triple toolkit as part of the “transparent international transport green corridor” will significantly simplify and accelerate the rate of passage and movement for transit foreign trade cargo flows. It will help law-abiding business community as foreign trade participants to follow the customs legislation within the customs territory of the EAEU, as well as to follow the level and quality of customs control at border checkpoints and within the route of goods along the entire transport corridor. The innovations will provide a huge regional infrastructure and socio-economic stability of regions, districts and settlements, thus it will lead to the stable employment of Russia and other EAEU citizens, as well as other world country-partners that take part in the “transparent international transport green corridor”.
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Kotulovski, Karla, and Sandra Laleta. "THE ABUSE AND EXPLOITATION OF FOREIGN SEASONAL WORKERS: DID THE CORONAVIRUS EMERGENCY WORSEN ALREADY PRECARIOUS WORKING CONDITIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR?" In EU 2021 – The future of the EU in and after the pandemic. Faculty of Law, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.25234/eclic/18310.

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Seasonal workers are increasingly important in some Member States as a means to fill the labour market needs. Preferred due to their lower salaries, greater docility and the evasion of administrative and social security obligations, migrant workers are often treated less favourably than domestic workers in terms of employment rights, benefits and access to adequate housing. The agricultural sector of employment is particularly at risk of labour exploitation during harvest seasons and thus associated with atypical or informal forms of employment and precarious working conditions. The COVID-19 pandemic gave visibility to the new risks the seasonal workers are exposed to. In addition, it showed that in some cases such problems can lead to the further spreading of infectious diseases and increase the risk of COVID-19 clusters. The consequences of of the pandemic can be observed in Croatia too. This paper primarily covers the position of third-country nationals who enter and reside in Croatia for the purpose of agricultural seasonal work within the framework of the Seasonal Workers Directive (Directive 2014/36/EU). Significant challenges facing the Croatian labour market have been addressed by means of a comparative approach in order to present the current situation on the EU labour market and suggest potential legal solutions applicable in regard to the national circumstances.
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Heath, Garvin A., David D. Hsu, Daniel Inman, Andy Aden, and Margaret K. Mann. "Life Cycle Assessment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol—Global Warming Potential and Environmental Emissions." In ASME 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the Heat Transfer and InterPACK09 Conferences. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2009-90037.

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Strategies to reduce the dependence of the United States on foreign oil, increase the use of renewable energy, and lessen the contribution to global warming have received significant attention. National adoption of such strategies could significantly impact America’s economy and security as well as global climate change. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates specific renewable energy market penetration targets for the year 2022 [1]. For liquid transportation fuels, the 2022 EISA mandate is 36 billion gallons per year (bgy) of biofuel, of which 21 bgy must come from feedstocks other than corn starch. Despite this legal mandate for renewable biofuels, many questions remain unanswered with regard to the potential environmental effects of such a large increase in the production and use of biofuels. In addition to specifying volumetric standards for these renewable fuels, EISA establishes greenhouse gas mitigation standards. The objective of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), water use, and net energy value (NEV) associated with the EISA-mandated 16 bgy cellulosic biofuels target, which is assumed in this study to be met by cellulosic-based ethanol, and the EISA-mandated 15 bgy conventional corn ethanol target. Specifically, this study compares, on a per-kilometer-driven basis, the GWP, water use, and NEV for the year 2022 for several biomass feedstocks.
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Kamalova, Anara. "State Marketing as a Factor in the Strengthening of Macroeconomic Indicators." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01439.

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This article deals with the state of marketing and its role in strengthening macroeconomic indicators of the Kyrgyz Republic, but it does not apply in the country properly. The need for the use of state marketing is intensifying with the entering of Kyrgyzstan to EEU as a member. To improve the structure of foreign trade, it is proposed marketing initiatives and research on the study of the external market, the internal potential of the country, specialization of production, the creation of "umbrella brand" for the country, the best way of satisfying consumers of public services, effective control of the quality and safety of products, regulation of the relevant parameters, that meet international standards, the fight against counterfeit, creating a positive image of Kyrgyzstan in the world and others.
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Uzun Kocamış, Tuğçe, Serdar Kuzu, and Emre Aksu. "An Overview of Relations between Turkey and Kazakhstan in Light Of Economic Developments in Central Asia." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00459.

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Kazakhstan is in a distinctive position among other Central Asian Republics due to its rich economic resources. It has the highest per capita GDP. Turkey is the first country to recognize the independence of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the major strategic partner of Turkey in Central Asia. Due to its active and constructive approach, its importance has been increasing in Turkey’s foreign policy. Turkey, having qualified human resources, technology know-how, and international experience, is capable of supporting Central Asian countries in various areas. When their economy, production structure, export and import demands are compared withTurkey, we may see a great collaboration opportunities to complement each other. Due to the common history, ethnics, and culture, Turkey has become the strategic partner for Kazakhstan. Turkeyis also an important market for Kazakhstan as it has a continously developing industry, increasing consumer expenses, and growing export potential.
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Hilšerová, Monika, Dominika Hrabalová, Markéta Kalábová, and Antonín Dvořák. "Competitive advantages of the Czech Republic for the development of medical tourism." In XXIII. mezinárodní kolokvium o regionálních vědách / 23rd International Colloquium on Regional Sciences. Brno: Masaryk University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5817/cz.muni.p210-9610-2020-44.

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Medical tourism is one of the forms of tourism with dynamic development in recent years. To determine the strategic development of the area, it is necessary to determine the strengths of the destination with regard to trends and opportunities that the market offers. The aim of this paper is to identify the competitive advantages of the Czech Republic in terms of medical tourism and answer the key question whether the Czech Republic has the prerequisites for future development. The evaluation was performed on the basis of a comparison of research reports of the Czech Tourist Board (CzechTourism) with international reports evaluating the competitiveness and position of the Czech Republic, namely the country reports of the International Medical Travel Journal, Euro Health Consumer Index, Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index. Furthermore, the services offered for foreign tourists were evaluated. A price comparison of selected procedures was also included. Based on the analysis, the competitive advantages of the Czech Republic were determined. The identified competitive advantages show that the Czech Republic has good potential for the development of medical tourism. Based on a comparison of the main final reports of foreign and domestic organizations, it follows that the main competitive advantages of the Czech Republic in the field of medical tourism are almost zero waiting times and low cost of quality medical procedures and quality medical care.
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Reports on the topic "Foreign market potential"

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Cao, Shoufeng, Uwe Dulleck, Warwick Powell, Charles Turner-Morris, Valeri Natanelov, and Marcus Foth. BeefLedger blockchain-credentialed beef exports to China: Early consumer insights. Queensland University of Technology, May 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5204/rep.eprints.200267.

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The BeefLedger Export Smart Contracts project is a collaborative research study between BeefLedger Ltd and QUT co-funded by the Food Agility CRC. This project exists to deliver economic value to those involved in the production, export and consumption of Australian beef to China through: (1) reduced information asymmetry; (2) streamlined compliance processes, and; (3) developing and accessing new data-driven value drivers, through the deployment of decentralised ledger technologies and associated governance systems. This report presents early insights from a survey deployed to Chinese consumers in Nov/Dec 2019 exploring attitudes and preferences about blockchain-credentialed beef exports to China. Our results show that most local and foreign consumers were willing to pay more than the reference price for a BeefLedger branded Australian cut and packed Sirloin steak at the same weight. Although considered superior over Chinese processed Australian beef products, the Chinese market were sceptical that the beef they buy was really from Australia, expressing low trust in Australian label and traceability information. Despite lower trust, most survey respondents were willing to pay more for traceability supported Australian beef, potentially because including this information provided an additional sense of safety. Therefore, traceability information should be provided to consumers, as it can add a competitive advantage over products without traceability.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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