Academic literature on the topic 'Foreign market assessment'

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Journal articles on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Ziolkowska, J., K. Jechlitschka, and D. Kirschke. "Global implications of national price policies on the wheat market – quantitative assessment of world market effects." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 55, No. 10 (November 9, 2009): 475–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/2612-agricecon.

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Price policy instruments are common political measures to influence the supply and export of agricultural products. Different price policies have thus different influence on national agricultural markets. These policies can also influence the world market and third countries provided that the exporting country places a high share of its production on the world market. Using a Cobb-Douglas market model we quantitatively assess global implications of national price policies in the EU-27, Russia, and the US (as leading wheat exporting countries) on the world market price for wheat and on welfare, foreign exchange, and producer surplus in third countries. The results prove that increasing protectionist price policies in the EU-27, Russia, and the US would only slightly influence the welfare in third countries. This policy would however bring about a higher decrease of foreign exchange and producer surplus in third countries.
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Khalid, Asma. "Pakistan’s Parallel Foreign Exchange Market." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 19, Special Edition (September 1, 2014): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2014.v19.isp.a1.

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This paper seeks to describe and analyze the parallel foreign exchange (FX) market in Pakistan. The very nature of this market implies that there is little formal documentation or data to describe it, and so any assessment will be, by definition, subjective. However, parties that transact in the parallel market are familiar with parts of it, on which basis this paper aims to give a comprehensive picture of the structure and evolution of this market in Pakistan. We start with a brief historical perspective, which flags the importance of workers’ remittances to the country and explains how the bulk of this inflow is transacted through the hundi/hawala network (informal moneychangers). We then place this network within the context of the larger FX market and show how it interfaces with the interbank market. We also discuss how many hundi/hawala agents have evolved into formal exchange companies and list the various sources and uses of FX transacted in the kerb market. The conclusion spells out the importance and resilience of the parallel FX market, the need to push toward full amalgamation with the formal FX market, and the key role of workers’ remittances in Pakistan’s macro-economy.
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Peprný, Aleš, Lea Kubíčková, and Patrik Rovný. "Method of evaluating the success of the small and medium-sized enterprises." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 58, no. 3 (2010): 183–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201058030183.

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At the time of increasing globalization and homogenization of the global markets, the development of information infrastructure technology and world market becomes accessible not only to large multinational companies but also for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This has resulted in increasing competition in the domestic market which domestic firms have to face. Therefore the pro­cess of internationalization of business is a step that allows businesses performing their activities in the domestic market to enter foreign markets and to exploit the opportunities and potential which these markets offer. The paper is focused on the draft of the method for quantification of the factors, which determine the success of the SMEs in foreign markets. In the proposed method the multidimensional assessment of indicators of success of SMEs in foreign markets are used, ie. not only the proportion of sales from exports is observed, but also the profitability of international activities in an absolute and in a relative rate. Other indicators of success are the satisfaction of the company management with international activities and the success of achieving defined targets for business activities in foreign markets. Evaluation is made up of both the objective and the subjective indicators of success. Among the objective indicators of success is included the intensity of international activities of SMEs, which is detected as the sum of revenues generated from international activities in relation to total sales company, the profitability of international activities, (ie. whether the foreign activities are profitable or not), and the relative profitability of international activities, where it is ascertained whether the foreign activities generate higher profit than the activities at the domestic market. The next subjective indicator of success is the success of objectives - it was found how many objectives related to operations in foreign markets has been achieved. Another indicator is the subjective satisfaction of the company management with existing activities on foreign markets. Overall performance on foreign markets of the company is quantified using an assessment of objective and subjective indicators of success. Using the defined evaluation it will be possible to determine which of the SMEs are more and which are less successful in foreign markets. Finally, this evaluation will be used for future research aimed at identifying characteristics affecting the success of SMEs in the foreign markets.
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Ankenbrand, Thomas, and Denis Bieri. "Assessment of cryptocurrencies as an asset class by their characteristics." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 15, no. 3 (August 29, 2018): 169–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.15(3).2018.14.

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The cryptocurrency market has witnessed significant growth in the past few months. The emergence of hundreds of new digital currencies and the huge increase in the prices of their leading representatives have attracted a lot of attention from investors. However, the financial characteristics of the cryptocurrency markets have not been systematically evaluated yet. As a consequence, there is currently no consensus on whether cryptocurrencies constitute an individual asset class or if they share substantial similarities to stocks, bonds, commodities or foreign exchange. Based on Markowitz et al. (2017) this paper aims to fill this lack of research by evaluating the cryptocurrency market based on seven requirements of an individual asset class. The authors find that the cryptocurrency market distinguishes itself remarkably from established asset classes in terms of risk and return. Additionally, the low correlation between the cryptocurrency markets and these established asset classes induces a diversification potential for investors, leading to more favorable risk/return profiles of their portfolios. But also the emergence of investment services and products provided by the financial industry and the increasingly cost-effective access to cryptocurrencies corroborate the conclusion that cryptocurrencies can be seen as an individual asset class.
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Anna, BONDARIEVA, ZHALDAK Maryna, and MOKROUSOVA Olena. "UKRAINEON THE WORLD MARKET OF LEATHER MATERIALS." INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC-PRACTICAL JOURNAL "COMMODITIES AND MARKETS" 38, no. 2 (June 15, 2021): 16–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.31617/tr.knute.2021(38)02.

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Background. The problem of stable activity of domestic producers, in particular in the production of leather and footwear, is exacerbated by increasing global competition along with the loss of significant share of domestic and foreign markets. The regulating of the development of industrial production, domestic and foreign markets for light industry products is one of the most important tasks of the state today. Therefore, the assessment of the state of Ukraine’s foreign trade in the leather and leathermaterials market is important component for forecasting andshaping the development of domestic leather manufacturing. The aim of the work is to analyze the dynamics of Ukraine’s foreign trade on the leather materials market and to establish key directions for thedevelopment of Ukraine’s leather industry to increase the competitiveness of domestic products in an international environment. Materials and methods. Methods of analysis and synthesis, comparison and gene­ra­lization are used for work. Statistical data of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, customs statistics of the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine, as well as data from the Inter­national Trade Center are used to study the leather market of various finishing methods in the world. Results. The analysis of foreign trade activities of the leather materials market showed that leather, additionally processed after tanning, significantly exceeds exports in imports, while tanned leather without processing in exports is ten times higher than im­ports. The analysis of world trade indicators determined that leather with a natural full grain surface is characterized by the greatest competitiveness against polished leather withan artificial grain surface. According to the indicators of foreign trade activity, Ukraine ranks third among the countries – leaders in world imports of leather with a natural full grain surface configuration in the form of halves. According to this commodity position, Ukraine ranks 13th in world exports. Conclusion. The analysis of Ukraine’s foreign trade on the leather materials mar­ket revealed the need of forming commodity and technological specializations of the domestic leather industry in accordance with the production of leather with a natural full grain surface from cowhides as the most competitive product in the international environment.
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Pehrsson, Anders. "Sequential expansion in a foreign market." European Business Review 28, no. 3 (May 9, 2016): 285–311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ebr-01-2016-0017.

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Purpose A multinational firm’s expansion in a foreign market is a key issue of international business. The purpose of this study is to extend the understanding of essential drivers that will facilitate firm’s assessment of alternative modes of sequential expansion. Design/methodology/approach The study applies the knowledge-based view and explores a multinational firm’s sequential post-entry expansion in a foreign market. Event histories of Swedish industrial firms’ establishments of wholly owned subsidiaries in Germany, the UK and the USA were explored using Cox regression. Findings Broad market experiences stemming from corporate strategy and deep experiences from the preceding subsidiary increase the likelihood of a sequential investment. Effects of broad experiences are contingent on the context specified by the geographic scope of the firm and its general subsidiary experience. Research limitations/implications The study contributes to international expansion theory and integrates sources of knowledge originating from strategy theory and internationalization theory. The study shows that the dual approach is needed to understand international expansion. Practical implications In evaluating a further subsidiary investment in a foreign market, the multinational firm is advised to assess whether it possesses enough market experiences to justify the investment. The experiences should be associated with corporate strategy, the previous wholly owned subsidiary and the context specifications identified in the study. Originality/value The study is unique, as it addresses the simultaneous impact of broad and deep market experiences. Also, the inclusion of central context specifications makes the study novel.
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Sandoyan, E. M., M. A. Voskanyan, and A. G. Galstyan. "assessment of Key factors of the foreign Exchange Rate formation in armenia." Finance: Theory and Practice 22, no. 5 (November 23, 2018): 27–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.26794/2587-5671-2018-22-5-27-39.

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Usually, it is diffcult for developing countries to choose a currency regulation policy because of institutional inadequacy, including a signifcant level of concentration in commodity markets, and a high degree of dependence of the national market and fnancial system on exogenous factors and a huge external debt. This article is dedicated to the analysis and evaluation of key factors affecting the formation of the Armenian national currency (dram) exchange rate, as well as to the choice of the currency regulation policy in Armenia. The authors carried out a statistical and econometric analysis of the factors of the foreign exchange rate formation, taking into account the specifcs of the transition economy as a whole, as well as the features of the Armenian economy, in particular. The authors have identifed the exogenous and endogenous factors of the foreign exchange rate formation of the dram, depending on the inflow and outflow of foreign currency. Further, the authors specifed the influence of dominant factors on the choice of the currency regulation policy in the country. The authors carried out an econometric analysis of the factors identifed at the frst stage of the study using the VAR model. The results obtained from this model proved the hypothesis of the non-market nature of the dram’s exchange rate formation. The authors concluded that the dram’s exchange rate formation has non-market nature because of signifcant intervention on the currency market by the “monetary authorities”. The key conclusion of this study is the thesis about the need to change the approaches to currency regulation in Armenia in favour of the transition to a free-floating exchange rate policy in order to stimulate sustainable rates of economic growth in the long term.
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Turapin, S. S., and I. A. Kostovarova. "Analysis of the market for hose reel sprinklers." Machinery and Equipment for Rural Area, no. 7 (July 26, 2021): 2–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.33267/2072-9642-2021-7-2-7.

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The analysis of the market of hose reel sprinklers of domestic and foreign make for the period 20152019 is presented. An assessment of the quantity, cost and geography of supplies of sprinklers to Russia has been performed. The dynamics of deliveries to the domestic market of the country of hose reel sprinklers by foreign and domestic manufacturers is identified.
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Stepanov, Evgeniy, Dmitri Pletnev, and Van Duc Pham. "Assessment of sustainable foreign economic activity strategies of Russian corporations." E3S Web of Conferences 258 (2021): 06017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202125806017.

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In modern economic literature, several strategies for the development of enterprises are considered at the theoretical level. However, as an independent form of strategy, foreign economic activity strategy is not considered, or not enough attention is paid to it. The purpose of the article is to identify the strategies of foreign economic activity of Russian enterprises in the oil and gas, metallurgical industries, and the food industry, based on their annual reports and ratings of Russian analytical agencies. The objectives of the study are, firstly, the development of a methodology for assessing the results of strategies for foreign economic activity, and secondly, the analysis of strategies for foreign economic activity, as a result of their commodity market, resource market, technological, integration, and financial investment strategies. As a result of the study, the features of Russian corporations’ strategies of foreign economic activity have been revealed. Their trajectories are shown in the “commodity item - country” coordinate system.
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Vyzhimova, Natal'ya, and M. Pomykalova. "PROTECTION OF THE NATIONAL LABOR MARKET." Actual directions of scientific researches of the XXI century: theory and practice 8, no. 4 (January 31, 2021): 26–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.34220/2308-8877-2021-8-4-26-37.

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This article examines one of the country's top priorities, such as protecting the national labor market. The modern labor market plays a unique role in the state of the Russian economy. The specificity of this phenomenon is expressed in the diversity of labor resources: Russian and foreign. The bearer of labor power is man, it is he who represents the power of production of the whole society. The labor resource possesses a set of intellectual and physical abilities, values, norms and labor characteristics, which should, first of all, be assessed by the state and the employer in building labor relations. The improvement of the labor market is led by the improvement in the indicators of the economically active population, the level of unemployment and employment. The external labor market is distinguished by its openness and accessibility. The jobs are predominantly occupied by foreign workers. The high level of flows of foreign labor in the Russian Federation forces the state authorities to promptly respond to the situation. The state pays attention, first of all, to providing jobs for the citizens of its country to prevent unemployment. But for a stable economic situation, foreign labor is also required, which is why the state seeks to quantitatively and qualitatively regulate the attraction of foreign flows. Modern Russia is characterized by the western way of attracting foreign labor and limiting migration, it consists in the gradual introduction of a point system for individual assessment of the labor potential of each foreign worker.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Hodge, Sanford John, and S. Kent Roberts. "An assessment of foreign investors in the Washington, D.C. real estate market." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/74807.

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Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Urban Studies and Planning, 1987 [first author]; and, (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Architecture, 1987 [second author].
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 60-62).
by S. John Hodge and S. Kent Roberts.
M.S.
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Radzevičiūtė, Eglė. "Assessment of foreign direct investment by gravity model approach." Master's thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2013. http://vddb.laba.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2013~D_20130129_192400-56972.

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In the thesis foreign direct investment in the Baltic countries using gravity model have been analysed. The first part of the thesis consists of foreign direct investment definition, the positive and negative influencing factors of foreign direct investment evaluation criteria analysis of the scientific literature and the authors different approaches to them. It is also made a critical evaluation of literature, authors usually distinguishing factors mentioned in different sources that affect foreign direct investment. Also in the first part of the paper theoretically gravity model and its application in practice of direct foreign investment assessment has been described. In the practical, analytical part the analysis of the chosen 7 most popular parameters from has been performed using the graphical methods. Also analyzed the market size, average wages, education levels, tax burden, economic openness index , GDP per capita and the average disposable income per household member on foreign direct investment in the Baltic countries, using multiple regression and correlation analysis and using a gravity model. The thesis ends with conclusions and recommendations. Structure: introduction, theoretical part, practical part, conclusions and suggestions, references. Thesis consist of: 77 p. text without appendixes, 19 pictures, 34 tables, 55 bibliographical entries.
Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjamos tiesioginės užsienio investicijos Baltijos šalyse taikant gravitacinį modelį. Pirmoje darbo dalyje pateikiama tiesioginių užsienio investicijų sąvokos, teigiamą ir neigiamą įtaką darančių veiksnių, tiesioginių užsienio investicijų vertinimo kriterijų analizė mokslinėje literatūroje bei skirtingas autorių požiūris į juos. Taip pat atliktas kritinis literatūros vertinimas, išskiriant dažniausiai autorių minimus veiksnius skirtinguose šaltiniuose, kurie daro įtaką tiesioginėms užsienio investicijoms. Taip pat pirmoje darbo dalyje teoriniu požiūriu išanalizuotas gravitacinis modelis bei jo taikymas praktikoje tiesioginėse užsienio investicijoms įvertinti. Praktinėje, analitinėje darbo dalyje pagal pasirinktus 7 parametrus iš dažniausiai pasitaikančių literatūros apžvalgose išanalizuotas Baltijos šalių tiesioginių užsienio investicijų atvejis naudojant grafinę analizę. Taip pat nagrinėjamas rinkos dydžio, vidutinio darbo užmokesčio, išsilavinimo lygio, mokesčių naštos, ekonominio atvirumo indekso BVP vienam gyventojui bei vidutinių disponuojamų pajamų vienam namų ūkio nariui įtaka tiesioginėms užsienio investicijoms Baltijos šalyse naudojant daugianarę koreliacinę regresinę analizę bei pritaikant gravitacinį modelį. Darbo pabaigoje pateikiamos išvados ir siūlymai. Darbą sudaro 2 dalys: įvadas, teorinė dalis, praktinė dalis išvados ir siūlymai, literatūros sąrašas. Darbo apimtis – 77 p. teksto be priedų, 19 iliustr., 34 lent., 55... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Gould, Richard Robert, and RichardGould@ozemail com au. "International market selection-screening technique: replacing intuition with a multidimensional framework to select a short-list of countries." RMIT University. Social Science & Planning, 2002. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20081125.145312.

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The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A
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Mahlaole, Tahane. "The relationship between foreign direct investment and the maturity of the real estate market: an assessment of investment activities of South African real estate companies with exposure on the African continent." Master's thesis, University of Cape Town, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/25335.

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Africa has begun to show tremendous socio-economic development and gradually improving market conditions. As a result, Africa's perceived attractiveness has improved as new investment frontiers are sought. It has become crucial that current and future economic and market growth needs can be met by infrastructure and real estate development. In order for the various real estate markets to develop further, they would need to attract a significant amount of capital expenditure, of which a portion may come from institutional investors. In order to achieve this, Africa needs to ensure that the desired investment environment is stimulated in the real estate market so as to redirect some of the capital flows into improving and increasing current and future real estate stock on the continent. This dissertation focuses on real estate in Africa by assessing the nature of the relationship between the maturity of real estate markets and foreign direct investments. It does so by assessing the investment decisions of South African real estate investors with exposure in the rest of the continent. The research findings seek to provide insight into the nature of the relationship and further assess its level of importance for South African real estate investors. Key findings were that maturity of real estate markets correlated poorly with investment activities and investors priorities when making investment decisions. However, maturity is a factor in real estate investment decisions. The aim was to assess the minimum level of maturity that was required for South African investors before entering a market; however, it became clear that mature markets or very immature markets are not necessarily what investors seek. An element of the risk/return profile is influenced by the maturity of markets: the less mature markets have the greater level of risk and the more mature markets have very little risk in comparison.
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Shtjefni, Geis. "Posouzení možnosti uplatnění výrobkového portfolia v dalších balkánských státech." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2012. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-142200.

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The aim of this thesis is to analyse the current situation in the marketability of the products of the particular company, which operates in the territory of Albania in the production of ceramic bricks. After that their possible application to current markets as well as considering the possibility of expansion to other Balkan states. The thesis further explains the reasons leading the company to consider the expansion.In the thesis there has been evaluated the current economic situation of the company, a survey of the business environment about countries being considered for expansion has been made as well as the research of the competitors in the given area. An important part of this thesis is the selection of the forms of entry into the selected foreign markets by using selected methods and tools of managerial decision making.
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Kinuthia, Wanyee. "“Accumulation by Dispossession” by the Global Extractive Industry: The Case of Canada." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30170.

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This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.
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Books on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Greenwood, Sarah J. Foreign investments in Russia: An assessment of the use of the joint venture by foreign investors in the Russian market. Manchester: UMIST, 1997.

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Karingi, Stephen N. Assessment of the impact of the economic partnership agreement between the COMESA countries and the European Union. Addis Ababa]: African Trade Policy Centre, 2006.

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Burgstaller, Johann. Trade performance of East European producers on EU markets: An assessment of product quality. [Vienna]: Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Studies, 1999.

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Martincus, Christian Volpe. Odyssey in international markets: An assessment of the effectiveness of export promotion activities in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, D.C: Inter-American Development Bank, 2010.

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Ltd, Stollznow Research Pty, and Fiji Visitors Bureau, eds. Assessment of traveller perceptions of Fiji: Market research report. Suva, Fiji: Fiji Visitors Bureau, 2000.

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Canada. Employment and Immigration Canada (Dept.). Strategic Policy and Planning., ed. PEAD, Planning Environment Assessment Document: Trends and perspectives. [Canada]: Employment and Immigration Canada, 1991.

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United States Government Task Force on the EC Internal Market. and United States. Office of the U.S. Trade Representative., eds. EC 1992: An assessment of economic policy issues raised by the European Community's single market program. Washington, D.C: Office of the United States Trade Representative, Executive Office of the President, 1990.

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Holper, Anne, and Lars Kirchhoff, eds. Peace Mediation in Germany’s Foreign Policy. Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5771/9783748926160.

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This volume is dedicated to the field of peace mediation, which has rapidly developed and become profes-sionalised in recent decades, both internationally and in Germany. In bringing together the history and status quo of the field plus the prospects for its future development, the volume has three special features: It combines a critical theoretical and a practical assessment of recent and ongoing political developments. It offers a selection of the ‘Fact Sheets on Peace Mediation’, which have been elaborated by the Federal Foreign Office in cooperation with the Initiative Mediation Support Deutschland (IMSD). And it provides concrete ideas on how Germany's peace mediation profile and methodology can be further heightened and translated into effective and responsible political practice. With contributions by Marike Blunck, Sebastian Dworack, Anne Holper, Lars Kirchhoff, David Lanz, Christoph Lüttmann, Simon J.A. Mason, Dirk Splinter, Luxshi Vimalarajah, Julia von Dobeneck, Brigitta von Messling, Carsten Wieland, Almut Wieland-Karimi and Felix Würkert.
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Federico, Giovanni, and Nikolaus Wolf. A Long-Run Perspective on Comparative Advantage. Edited by Gianni Toniolo. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199936694.013.0012.

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The history of Italy since its unification in 1861 was accompanied by a dramatic increase in the country's integration with European and global commodity markets: foreign trade in the long run grew on average faster than the overall economy. Italy's comparative advantage changed fundamentally, from a high concentration of a few trading partners and a handful of rather simple commodities, into a wide diversification of trading partners and more sophisticated commodities. The chapter uses a new long-term database on Italian foreign trade at a high level of disaggregation to document and analyze these changes. The chapter concludes with an assessment of Italy's prospects from a historical perspective.
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Agricultural marketing: U.S. cotton market before and after import assessments : report to congressional committees. Washington, D.C: The Office, 1996.

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Book chapters on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Lorentzen, Jochen. "The Management of Foreign Direct Investment: A Preliminary Assessment." In Opening up Hungary to the World Market, 151–79. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-23870-5_5.

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Bauder, Harald. "Devalued Germans." In Labor Movement. Oxford University Press, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195180879.003.0015.

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Despite the privilege of German citizenship, Spätaussiedler experience difficulties in the German labor market. Unemployment tends to be high, and many of those who are employed fill positions in the secondary segment of the labor market. A problem for many Spätaussiedler is that their former occupations do not exist or are not in demand in Germany. Tractor operators, technicians in the oil industry, and coal miners from the former Soviet Union have difficulty finding employment in their fields, particularly in Berlin. Other Spätaussiedler still work in their general field, but below their original qualifications. Of these, many are denied work in their former occupations because their foreign occupational and educational credentials are not recognized by German authorities and employers. Government efforts to streamline the transferability of foreign credentials have concentrated on countries within the European Union (Schneider 1995); however, Spätaussiedler from the territory of the former Soviet Union do not benefit from these efforts. Although, as German citizens, they are legally entitled to credential assessment, exclusionary practices in the credential assessment and recognition process still make it difficult for Spätaussiedler to obtain work in the upper labor market segment. These immigrants fall victim to a double standard that values domestic and foreign credentials differently. The nonrecognition of foreign credentials as a mechanism of labor devaluation is not unusual in countries that receive large numbers of immigrants, as illustrated in chapter 5 in the case of immigrants in Vancouver. In Germany, Spätaussiedler present an interesting group because they enjoy citizenship rights and privileges unavailable to other immigrant groups. They receive full legal labor market access, economic integration assistance, the right to credential assessment, privileged treatment by labor market institutions, and, unlike foreigners and naturalized migrants, they are able to use their foreign qualifications to establish small businesses and offer vocational apprenticeships. In some instances, Spätaussiedler even receive preferential treatment relative to other Germans, for example, when applying for small business loans (Juris 2003, BFVG §14). In light of these privileges, labor devaluation through legal exclusion is apparently not an issue for Spätaussiedler.
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Gajewska, Elżbieta, and Magdalena Sowa. "Czego spodziewać się po pracowniku z certyfikatem z języka biznesowego, czyli o kłopotach z testowaniem umiejętności językowych w kontekście zawodowym." In Kompetencje XXI wieku: certyfikacja biegłości językowej / Competences of the 21st century: Certification of language proficiency. University of Warsaw Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31338/uw.9788323546917.pp.203-215.

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A certificate in a foreign language is an important asset in the modern labour market: it certifies communication skills in a foreign language, although it does not guarantee the reliability of certified competences in specific professional situations. Certification of communication skills in the field of languages for specific purposes should include both assessment of language and professional skills, and thus certify the so-called learners’ dual competence. This paper aims to diagnose and discuss the real problems encountered in practice in the assessment of dual competences of learners of specialized languages.
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Dias da Silva Ruy, Alisson, Ana Luíza Freitas Ferreira, Antônio Ésio Bresciani, Rita Maria de Brito Alves, and Luiz Antônio Magalhães Pontes. "Market Prospecting and Assessment of the Economic Potential of Glycerol from Biodiesel." In Biomass [Working Title]. IntechOpen, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93965.

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Glycerol from biodiesel is a potential raw material for synthesis of several products with high added value. The world demand and the market value of these products are important information for defining the best investment for the implantation of a biorefinery. The information is available on websites of social associations, production companies and market consulting companies and can be mined, free of charge. The International Trade Center (ITC), with information on world trade and websites linked to the foreign trade agencies of every country, such as Comex Stat, in Brazil, are relevant search sources. In this context, this work presents procedures and search techniques for prospecting such information. Such a procedure is illustrated through a case study for which a search of market parameters for glycerol and its derivatives was carried out for use in the process design and economic evaluation of an industrial plant. It was found that crude glycerol had a market price close to US$ 170/ton, in 2019. Among its derivatives, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile and 1,3-propanediol have great potential for the development of new processes, within the scope of a biorefinery. Industrially, acrylic acid (US$ 1100/ton) and acrylonitrile (US$ 1500/ton) are produced from propene (US$ 880/ ton) and 1,3-propanediol (US $ 2000/ton) comes from glucose (US$ 460/t) or ethylene oxide (US$ 1200/t), which encourages the development of new sustainable processes.
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Krylov, Eduard. "On Integrative Bilingual Teaching of a Foreign Language and Engineering at a Technical University." In Examining Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) Theories and Practices, 79–96. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-3266-9.ch005.

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Integrative bilingual teaching/learning of foreign language and engineering disciplines at a technical university provides a good opportunity for students of the personal growth both in cognitive and communicative aspects, which contributes to their better positions in the labor market. To put this opportunity into practice, the educators should have clear ideas about the goal of this educational process, psychological aspects accompanying the process, conditions of its implementation, basic units of teaching/learning, means of monitoring, assessment, and control and some others. All these components of methodology are discussed in this chapter.
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Erokhin, Vasily. "Russia's Foreign Trade in Agricultural Commodities in Its Transition to Liberalization." In International Business, 96–116. IGI Global, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-9814-7.ch006.

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The chapter includes an analysis of the current state of the international organic market and contemporary tendencies in the production and marketing of green products in Russia. Analysis of Russia's foreign trade in agricultural products is also provided. This chapter includes an overview of major threats and opportunities for organic production in Russia in view of trade liberalization. This is also related to state support of green production in Russia and CIS and its influence on volumes, directions, structure and effectiveness of trade. The chapter concludes with assessment of perspective tools to ensure sustainability of green production through a set of political, social and financial tools, and bigger involvement of rural households into international competition, diversification of traditional rural sources of income by means of green production, local identification and specialization, and utilization of existing competitive advantages.
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Erokhin, Vasily. "Russia's Foreign Trade in Agricultural Commodities in Its Transition to Liberalization." In Green Economic Structures in Modern Business and Society, 253–73. IGI Global, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-8219-1.ch014.

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The chapter includes an analysis of the current state of the international organic market and contemporary tendencies in the production and marketing of green products in Russia. Analysis of Russia's foreign trade in agricultural products is also provided. This chapter includes an overview of major threats and opportunities for organic production in Russia in view of trade liberalization. This is also related to state support of green production in Russia and CIS and its influence on volumes, directions, structure and effectiveness of trade. The chapter concludes with assessment of perspective tools to ensure sustainability of green production through a set of political, social and financial tools, and bigger involvement of rural households into international competition, diversification of traditional rural sources of income by means of green production, local identification and specialization, and utilization of existing competitive advantages.
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Bobadilla-Pérez, María, and Lucía Fraga Viñas. "Making Language Learning More Inclusive." In Advances in Linguistics and Communication Studies, 152–67. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1219-7.ch010.

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This chapter presents the results of a study conducted in a language classroom in Galicia (Spain). The course was sponsored by the local administration and addressed to unemployed students (n = 14; average age 47). The education in foreign languages of the participants in the ‘80s and ‘90s had been held back due to curricular needs to promote the use of the second official language, Galician. The extrinsic motivation for English language learning of the participants was their need to improve linguistic skills to re-gain access to the job market. It was observed that they were consistently underperforming during writing exam preparation tasks. In order to meet the needs of these students, it was decided to study the impact that the explanation of the assessment rubric had on learners' written production. Results of their performance in a pre-test were compared to the results in a post-test. The implementation of this strategy proved to be effective. By allowing the students to have knowledge of the rubric for the assessment of their writings, their fear was significantly reduced.
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Andreeva, Ekaterina. "National Migration Policy as a Principle for Economic System Structuring in the Modern States." In Socio-Economic Development, 277–302. IGI Global, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-7311-1.ch015.

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This chapter covers three actual problems of the modern economy: immigration processes in developed countries and their “economic effect,” current migration problems of Russian regions, as well as the specifics of economic space structuring considering the overall impact of migration processes on the territorial economy and the labour market. In the chapter, the assessment of the economic role of immigration in developed countries is justified, economic effects of migration processes are established, the analysis of the structure of the economic space of the modern state is conducted, regions of the Russian Federation in line with migration problems and conceptual substantiation of formation mechanisms of the Russian economic space are classified. The recommendations on the modernization of the Russian migration policy related to the use of positive foreign experience are suggested as conclusions. The given problem seems to be especially actual in the light of the strengthening of the latest migration processes, connected with the crisis in the Ukraine.
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Andreeva, Ekaterina. "National Migration Policy as a Principle for Economic System Structuring in the Modern States." In Urbanization and Migration as Factors Affecting Global Economic Development, 40–65. IGI Global, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7328-1.ch003.

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This chapter covers three actual problems of the modern economy: immigration processes in developed countries and their “economic effect,” current migration problems of Russian regions, as well as the specifics of economic space structuring considering the overall impact of migration processes on the territorial economy and the labour market. In the chapter, the assessment of the economic role of immigration in developed countries is justified, economic effects of migration processes are established, the analysis of the structure of the economic space of the modern state is conducted, regions of the Russian Federation in line with migration problems and conceptual substantiation of formation mechanisms of the Russian economic space are classified. The recommendations on the modernization of the Russian migration policy related to the use of positive foreign experience are suggested as conclusions. The given problem seems to be especially actual in the light of the strengthening of the latest migration processes, connected with the crisis in the Ukraine.
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Conference papers on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Ismagilova, Yu D., V. V. Stetsyuk, O. V. Pravikov, and V. V. Denisov. "Assessment of Russian Stock Market Attractiveness for Foreign Investors." In International Scientific Conference "Far East Con" (ISCFEC 2020). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200312.258.

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Izotov, D. A. "TRADE INTERACTIONS IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST: ASSESSMENT OF COMPARATIVE INTENSITY." In SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE RUSSIAN EAST: NEW CHALLENGES AND STRATEGIC GUIDELINES. Khabarovsk: KSUEL Editorial and Publishing Center, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.38161/978-5-7823-0746-2-2021-46-50.

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In the long term, the regions of the Russian Far East traded more intensively with the domestic market than with foreign countries. The low values of trade intensity the Russian Far Eastern regions with NEA countries was compensated by low transport costs. This circumstance determined the export orientation of the Russian Far East in favor of nearby large foreign markets.
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Sándorová, Zuzana. "The Importance of Intercultural and Communicative Competences for Tourism Labour Market." In Fifth International Conference on Higher Education Advances. Valencia: Universitat Politècnica València, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/head19.2019.9389.

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The present paper is founded on two pillars. Firstly, it is one of the current trends in education worldwide, i.e. to connect theory and practice. Secondly, it is the need to be interculturally competent speakers of a foreign language in today’s globalized world of massive migration flows and signs of increasing ethnocentrism. Based upon these two requirements, the ability to communicate in a FL effectively and interculturally appropriately in the tourism industry is a must, since being employed in whichever of its sectors means encountering other cultures on a daily basis. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to find out undergraduate tourism students’ opinion on the importance of intercultural communicative competences for their future profession as well as their self-assessment in the given field. The findings of the research, which are to be compared to employers’ needs, revealed that there is considerable difference between the respondents’ views on the significance of the investigated issues and their self-esteem.
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Heath, Garvin A., David D. Hsu, Daniel Inman, Andy Aden, and Margaret K. Mann. "Life Cycle Assessment of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: Ethanol—Global Warming Potential and Environmental Emissions." In ASME 2009 3rd International Conference on Energy Sustainability collocated with the Heat Transfer and InterPACK09 Conferences. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/es2009-90037.

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Strategies to reduce the dependence of the United States on foreign oil, increase the use of renewable energy, and lessen the contribution to global warming have received significant attention. National adoption of such strategies could significantly impact America’s economy and security as well as global climate change. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) mandates specific renewable energy market penetration targets for the year 2022 [1]. For liquid transportation fuels, the 2022 EISA mandate is 36 billion gallons per year (bgy) of biofuel, of which 21 bgy must come from feedstocks other than corn starch. Despite this legal mandate for renewable biofuels, many questions remain unanswered with regard to the potential environmental effects of such a large increase in the production and use of biofuels. In addition to specifying volumetric standards for these renewable fuels, EISA establishes greenhouse gas mitigation standards. The objective of this study is to use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate the global warming potential (GWP), water use, and net energy value (NEV) associated with the EISA-mandated 16 bgy cellulosic biofuels target, which is assumed in this study to be met by cellulosic-based ethanol, and the EISA-mandated 15 bgy conventional corn ethanol target. Specifically, this study compares, on a per-kilometer-driven basis, the GWP, water use, and NEV for the year 2022 for several biomass feedstocks.
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Luta (Manolescu), Daniela Alice, Adrian Ioana, Daniela Tufeanu, Daniela Ionela Juganaru, and Bianca Cezarina Ene. "FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT ELEMENTS SPECIFIC TO INVESTMENTS APPLICABLE IN EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS." In Sixth International Scientific-Business Conference LIMEN Leadership, Innovation, Management and Economics: Integrated Politics of Research. Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.31410/limen.2020.337.

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Our starting point is the definition and classification of investments, both financial and accounting. Thus, in a financial sense, an investment represents the change of an existing and available amount of money, with the hope of obtaining a higher but probable income in the future. In the accounting sense, an investment is the allocation of an amount available for the purchase of an asset, which will determine the future financial flows of income and expenses. Investments can be classified into two categories: domestic investments - consist of the allocation of capital for the purchase of machines, equipment, constructions, licenses, patents, etc. Their purpose can be to reduce costs, increase production, improve quality, increase market share, etc.; foreign investments - consist of capital investments in shares in other companies. They are also called financial investments and aim to increase the value of the company and diversify sources of income. We also analyze in this article the investment decision. The investment decision is the most important financial decision which a manager has to make. An investment usually involves allocating large sums of money in the long run, with a relatively high degree of risk. We also present and analyze both the stages of establishing an investment decision and the methods of evaluating an investment project. The article also presents management elements regarding the investment recovery term; discounted net value method, investment risk assessment.
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Bryukhova, Olga. "The Formation of an Attractive HR-Brand of a Transport Company's Target Audience of 'Young People'." In The Public/Private in Modern Civilization, the 22nd Russian Scientific-Practical Conference (with international participation) (Yekaterinburg, April 16-17, 2020). Liberal Arts University – University for Humanities, Yekaterinburg, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35853/ufh-public/private-2020-60.

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The article is dedicated to studying the HR-brand of a vehicle company, and seeks ways to improve it further. Theoretical and methodological aspects of shaping the image of an organisation as an employer are now widely reflected in the works of domestic and foreign researchers in the field of human resource management. However, the applied aspects of branding in relation to specific employers from different sectors of the economy remain relevant for the study. The practical interest of the company in question is due to the high turnover rate (15%) and the shortage of young workers. For the purpose of studying the formed corporate HR-brand, the author uses an analysis of local regulations on staff management, employee questionnaires, the assessment of the employer’s value proposition, a reputational audit of the company regarding the Internet environment, etc. The analysis of the internal and external image of the employer concludes that the attractiveness of the HR brand of the enterprise among the target audience ‘young people’ needs to be improved. The successful achievement of this goal is possible through the introduction of career management practices, organising participation in professional competitions; for young promising employees already in the company, developing and implementing a preliminary programme and promoting the company on social media: for potential candidates. Forming an attractive HR brand for young people based on the implementation of a value proposition that takes into account the specifics of this target audience, using new channels and formats to promote the employer brand externally, including in the online environment, will optimise staff turnover, attract and retain talented young people and strengthen the company’s position in the market.
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de Andrade, Antonio Manuel Valente, Susana Costa e Silva, and Goncalo Pereira Rebeca. "E-commerce as an entry mode in foreign markets: A systemic approach to the assessment of opportunities." In 2015 10th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI). IEEE, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/cisti.2015.7170470.

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Narin, Müslüme, and Alpay Öznazik. "International Monetary System and the Emergence of Renminbi." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01945.

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After the 2008 crisis International Monetary System (IMS) entered a period of change. The system under hegemony of dollar criticized in financial markets with regards to instability and lack of confidence. Whereas IMF argued that the IMS should be restructured in emerging markets, in the report of World Bank it was estimated that in the future of IMS a multipolar multiple currency system which includes Dollar, Euro and Renminbi (RMB) will improve (World Bank, 2011: xii). BRICS countries wanted diversify, especially, the Chinese reserves, but the Executive Board of IMF rejected SDR basket to be expanded until 30 November 2015. With the decision taken on this date, it took Chinese national currency RMB into SDR basket since the date of 1 October 2016. After this decision, the value of SDR has been composed of the sum of the currencies of US dollar, Euro, Chinese RMB (yuan), Japanese yen and pound sterling. Thereby, in SDR basket Chinese national currency ranked thirdly by weight. The purpose this paper is to discuss the ever-increasing importance of Chinese national currency RMB in IMS. In this direction, at first, the formation and development of SDR will be informed, then the direction of RMB towards the SDR basket will be discussed, after that, the appearance of the idea of RMB’s internationalization and the period of internationalization of RMB will be addressed. Finally, an assessment will be made about RMB’s being a means of payment and international financial asset in foreign trade.
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Fomina, T. G., E. V. Filippova, N. V. Goryuk, and E. A. Maksimova. "Experience of implementing «multidimensional school engagement scale» in russian sample." In INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC AND PRACTICAL ONLINE CONFERENCE. Знание-М, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.38006/907345-50-8.2020.314.325.

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The article substantiates the relevance of studying school engagement for research and practical perspectives. The authors analyze foreign psychologists’ experience of using various methods for diagnostics of school engagement, considering their advantages and disadvantages. The study presents the results of adapting “Multidimensional School Engagement Scale” (Wang et al., 2019) on the sample of Russian school students. The questionnaire is used for diagnostics of two global factors — school engagement and disengagement, each assessed by four components: behavioral, cognitive, emotional, and social. The experience of using the questionnaire adapted in Russian language demonstrated that it can be used to evaluate and comparatively analyze the general level of engagement/disengagement of different grade schoolchildren, to assess the quality of educational environment, to analyze individual manifestations of school engagement/disengagement, and identify the corresponding risk groups. The questionnaire adaptation results confirmed the relevancy of considering school engagement as a multidimensional construct, supposing assessment of its behavioral, emotional, cognitive, and social aspects. A comparative analysis of the schoolchildren’ engagement/disengagement by various components makes it possible to obtain valuable data on the peculiarities of children’s reflection of their involvement in the school life. Whereas disengagement (if found) serves as a marker of a student’s maladaptation requiring attention from the school administration. The study confirms the importance of investigating school engagement for the purposes of planning activities related to increasing academic motivation, as well as for understanding the principles and quality of educational activities organization, students’ reflection of their school activities, depending on contextual factors. The authors consider the options for using the questionnaire in the practice of a school psychologist and in the field of educational psychology research.
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Marsh, Carl A. "Generator Recovery Project Case Study." In ASME 2004 Power Conference. ASMEDC, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/power2004-52017.

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The Generator Recovery Project Case Study is a technical paper that will discuss a project which started with a simple open, clean, and close of a 40MW air cooled generator and turned out to be much more. The unit experienced a gradual increase in winding temperatures over the last several years, with a more notable increase in phase B temperatures. In the history of the unit, it was observed that the unit became contaminated with carbonaceous deposits due to the environment in which it operated. Routine cleanings during scheduled outages were successful in lowering the increased temperature trends. With today’s market environment and an increasing commonality of extending outage intervals, the routine outage interval had been extended to 7 years from the previous outage. The scope of work was to remove the rotor, clean, inspect, test and return the unit to service in just over one week’s time. The requirements of the project were that the efforts be maximized so that the unit returned to service in the most economical means while adhering to practices that would maximize the unit’s availability and reliability. With findings of significant contamination of carbonaceous deposits and significant foreign object damage (FOD), the project lead to overwhelming questions and concerns. The case study will discuss the immediate concerns of the unknown, such as if the core was even recoverable and what was the source of FOD. The case study will walk through the questions raised and the actions taken to first assess the condition of the unit and what actions to be taken to recover the core damage, if at all possible. Most importantly, determining the source of FOD and the rectifications to eliminate future sources of FOD from this area. Detailed information on repair assessments and validation will be presented and procedures for repair and recovery will be discussed. Final testing and validation to return to service will be discussed and the operational characteristics after the repair will be revealed.
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Reports on the topic "Foreign market assessment"

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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