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1
Chen, An-Sing, and Mark T. Leung. "Dynamic Foreign Currency Trading Guided by Adaptive Forecasting." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 01, no. 03 (September 1998): 383–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091598000247.
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The difficulty in predicting exchange rates has been a long-standing problem in international finance as most standard econometric methods are unable to produce significantly better forecasts than the random walk model. Recent studies provide some evidence for the ability of multivariate time-series models to generate better forecasts. At the same time, artificial neural network models have been emerging as alternatives to predict exchange rates. In this paper we propose a nonlinear forecast model combining the neural network with the multivariate econometric framework. This hybrid model contains two forecasting stages. A time series approach based on Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models is applied to the first stage of forecasting. The estimates from BVAR are then used by the nonparametric General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to generate enhanced forecasts. To evaluate the economic impact of forecasts, we develop a set of currency trading rules guided by these models. The optimal conditions implied by the investment rules maximize the expected profits given the expected changes in exchange rates and the interest rate differentials between domestic and foreign countries. Both empirical and simulation experiments suggest that the proposed nonlinear adaptive forecasting model not only produces better forecasts but also results in higher investment returns than other types of models. The effect of risk aversion is also considered in the investment simulation.
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ZIMMERMANN, GEORG, RALPH NEUNEIER, and RALPH GROTHMANN. "MULTI-AGENT MARKET MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES." Advances in Complex Systems 04, no. 01 (March 2001): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021952590100005x.
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A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The macroeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.
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Ahmed, KHATTAB, and SALMI Yahya. "Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate." Applied Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (July 26, 2021): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v8i4.5232.
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The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.
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Panda, Ajaya Kumar, Swagatika Nanda, Vipul Kumar Singh, and Satish Kumar. "Evidence of leverage effects and volatility spillover among exchange rates of selected emerging and growth leading economies." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, no. 2 (May 7, 2019): 174–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2018-0042.
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Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates. Findings The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods. Practical implications The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates. Originality/value This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.
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Bozhechkova, A. V., S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, and P. V. Trunin. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 8 (August 3, 2020): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-8-5-22.
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The article discusses the key factors of the ruble exchange rate dynamics, analyzes the features of Russian currency market in the context of inflation targeting and the application of the budget rule. The basic theoretical approaches to modeling the dynamics of real and nominal exchange rates are presented, including behavioral models of the exchange rate, the monetary model of the exchange rate, and the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity. The most important factors of long-term and short-term dynamics of the exchange rate are revealed. The results of an econometric evaluation of the models of the real and nominal ruble exchange rates using dynamic least squares method (DOLS) are presented. It is shown that the key factors shaping the dynamics of the nominal ruble exchange rate are the terms of trade, the interest rate spread, the VIX volatility index, and the operations of the Russian Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. The long-term trajectory of the real exchange rate is formed by the terms of trade conditions, the Balassa—Samuelson effect, the dynamics of net foreign assets of the private sector.
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Hacioglu, Umit, Hasan Dincer, and Ismail Erkan Celik. "Conflict Risk and Its Implication on Economy and Financial System." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 2, no. 2 (November 16, 2016): 109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v2i2.638.
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<p>Considering the impacts of the conflict on the economic parameters in terms of macroeconomics, the following factors might affect the profitability of the company: foreign capital outflows, decrease in exports, increase in the interest rates, disruption of the investment climate, increase in the exchange rates, increase in the costs of import entry etc. Due to the expectable decrease in profit shares as to the investors, the contraction in the risk appetite will cause volatility in the prices of equity securities markets based on the impacts of the conflict, and the equity securities will depreciate. In this study, the main contributions on conflict risk and related econometric models have been discussed.</p>
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SALİHOĞLU, Esengül. "The Effects Of The Exchange Rate On Foreign Trade Performance In Countries With Foreign Trade Deficit." İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi 11, no. 3 (September 30, 2022): 1712–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1143215.
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Exchange rates have become increasingly important as the rise of free trade has been supported by globalization and technological developments. In flexible exchange rate systems, the exchange rate is expected to affect the volume of foreign trade and thus aggregate output. In this context, it is important to understand the relationship between the exchange rate and foreign trade in economic policy implementation. The aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by comparatively analyzing the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade volumes in selected countries. Accordingly, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate (REER) and import and export volumes of the eight countries with the largest foreign trade deficits in 2020 (USA, UK, India, France, Turkiye, Egypt, Philippines, and Pakistan) is estimated using monthly data for the period January 2003–January 2022. By including the REER as a proxy for the exchange rate in the analysis, domestic prices and prices in the trading countries, which are important determinants of foreign trade, are also considered. The heterogeneous structure of the countries and the horizontal cross-sectional dependence between the series are taken into account in the choice of the analysis method. In the analysis using new generation econometric methods compatible with the characteristics of the series, CADF and CIPS unit root tests are followed by Westerlund's (2008) Durbin-Hausman Cointegration Test, then Pesaran's (2006) Common Correlated Effects (CCE) Estimator and Emirmahmutoglu and Kose's (2011) Panel Causality Test are applied.The findings of the analysis are listed as follows. According to the results of the cointegration test, a cointegration relationship was found between the REER and import and export volume in all countries included in the analysis. Then, the long-run coefficients of the models were estimated. According to the CCE estimation results, export volume is negatively affected by the REER in the long run, while import and export volumes are positively affected by each other. According to the Panel Fisher test statistics of the Panel Causality Test, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between export volume and the REER. The bidirectional relationship between the REER and foreign trade volumes in the short run indicates that the interaction between the variables is cyclical.
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Pluskota, Anna. "Makroekonomiczne determinanty ryzyka kredytowego w Polsce ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem kursów walut obcych." Finanse i Prawo Finansowe 3, no. 31 (September 30, 2021): 107–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.18778/2391-6478.3.31.07.
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The purpose of the article. The aim of the study is to show the impact of the key macroeconomic determinants of the credit risk of the banking sector in Poland in 2011–2020. This aim was achieved by analysis of the Pearson correlation coefficient and econometric models allowing to determine the impact of individual variables on the NPL index.
Methodology: The empirical part includes the presentation and description of basic descriptive statistics, as well as the calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficient with the interpretation of the obtained results. The dynamic econometric model describing the variability of the NPL ratio was built using mainly macroeconomic variables.
Results of the research: Research has shown the impact of changes in the unemployment rate and the inflation rate on credit risk. On the other hand, the impact of economic growth on the NPL ratio in the analyzed period was not statistically significant. The relationship between credit risk and changes in foreign exchange rates (CHF, USD, EUR) turned out to be negative in the analyzed period, which means that the increases in exchange rates of these currencies did not result in a significant burden of credit risk in the banking sector in Poland.
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Van der Geest, Willem. "Peter J. Montiel, Pierre-Richer Agenor, and Nadeem ul Haque. Informal Financial Markets in Developing Countries: A Macroeconomic Analysis. Published in the "Advances in Theoretical and Applied Economics" series edited by Homa Motamen-Scobie. Oxford: Blackwell. 1992. i-xi + 212 pp., including appendices. Hardbound. £40.00." Pakistan Development Review 32, no. 3 (September 1, 1993): 332–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v32i3pp.332-335.
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This volume reviews the nature and scope of informal financial markets in developing countries and elaborates on the theoretical and conceptual models which analyse 'financial repression' and other aspects of government intervention in financial markets. It also focuses on the consequences which the prevalence of informal financial markets in developing countries may have for monetary and exchange rate policy. In particular, it attempts to capture the functioning of informal, unregulated markets into macroeconomic models, working towards a general eqUilibrium model with informal financial markets. Two types of informal markets are analysed. The first are for informal lending at terms and conditions which differ greatly from those prevailing in the official banking system. The second are the 'parallel' markets for foreign exchange which tend to emerge in response to quantity restrictions on trade and administered allocation of foreign exchange to certain users at official rates, which are well below those on the parellel markets. The key question is whether these informal markets change the efficacy of monetary and credit policy-and, if they do, to what extent and in what direction? Two supporting appendices present econometric analyses of the efficiency of parallel currency markets and the degree of capital mobility in developing countries.
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Shen, Mei-Li, Cheng-Feng Lee, Hsiou-Hsiang Liu, Po-Yin Chang, and Cheng-Hong Yang. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates." Sustainability 13, no. 5 (March 4, 2021): 2761. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13052761.
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Accurately forecasting the movement of exchange rates is of interest in a variety of fields, such as international business, financial management, and monetary policy, though this is not an easy task due to dramatic fluctuations caused by political and economic events. In this study, we develop a new forecasting approach referred to as FSPSOSVR, which is able to accurately predict exchange rates by combining particle swarm optimization (PSO), random forest feature selection, and support vector regression (SVR). PSO is used to obtain the optimal SVR parameters for predicting exchange rates. Our analysis involves the monthly exchange rates from January 1971 to December 2017 of seven countries including Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the FSPSOSVR algorithm is compared with six competing forecasting models using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), including random walk, exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA, SVR, and PSOSVR. Our empirical results show that the FSPSOSVR algorithm consistently yields excellent predictive accuracy, which compares favorably with competing models for all currencies. These findings suggest that the proposed algorithm is a promising method for the empirical forecasting of exchange rates. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of exchange rate forecasts arising from FSPSOSVR by use of foreign exchange carry trades and find that the proposed trading strategies can deliver positive excess returns of more than 3% per annum for most currencies, except for AUD and NTD.
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Rana Shahid Imdad Akash, Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor, and Navid Ahmed. "Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Behavior (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey)." Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies 6, no. 1 (March 31, 2020): 127–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jafee.v6i1.1059.
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Purpose: This study is aimed at to observe the purchasing power parity (PPP) Theory. The purchasing power parity (PPP) is the most enduring debate of literature in international macroeconomics. It is most controversial due to various puzzles and tested with different econometric models for certain group of countries. Therefore, the PPP is valid assumption while international comparison due to use of common exchange rate and the prevalence of Law of One price.
Design/Methodology/Approach: The validity of PPP for relative countries (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey) was tested and analyzed for the sample period 2001 to 2018.
Findings: It is observed that exchange rates of Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey are not consistent and constant. The deviations of PPP through structural changes identified and are not persistence over long period. Overall results reflected that there is an existence of long run equilibrium relation in between Pakistan and China as well as in between Iran and Turkey. The error correction model has confirmed the adjustment speed of short run disequilibrium to long term disequilibrium level. Implications/Originality/Value: The expected differential level of inflation has significant positive impact to exchange rate shift to Pakistan and trading activity patterns. The changes in foreign exchange market and commodity market due to economic integration are important implications for economic globalization.
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Prevedouros, Panos D. "Origin-Specific Visitor Demand Forecasting at Honolulu International Airport." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1600, no. 1 (January 1997): 18–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1600-03.
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The development of a PC-based and easy-to-use-and-update econometric model system for forecasting arrivals at the Honolulu International Airport is presented. A model system instead of a single model was designed so that differential growth rates from various origins as well as arrivals affected by curfews at the origin or the destination, or both, can be estimated. The airport system of the state facilitates the only mode of transportation into and out of Hawaii. Planning based on reliable demand forecasts is therefore essential. Separate models of arrivals from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom were specified and estimated using the Cochrane-Orcutt regression method. Several diagnostic tests were employed to arrive at the final models, as problems of correlation (over time) and collinearity (among variables) were present. Independent variables include the gross domestic product, population, monetary exchange rate, and unemployment rate of the origin countries. Historical values for the independent variables were taken from the publications of international organizations. Variables for wars that tend to affect flying security and natural disasters in Hawaii that affect the supply of tourist accommodations were included in the model specifications.
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Suhendra, Indra, Cep Jandi Anwar, Navik Istikomah, Eka Purwanda, and Lilis Nur Kholishoh. "The Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Central Bank Rate on Exchange Rate Volatility in Indonesia." International Journal of Innovative Research and Scientific Studies 5, no. 4 (October 28, 2022): 343–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.53894/ijirss.v5i4.851.
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This research measures the short and long-run effects of central bank policy rate on the volatility of the exchange rate in Indonesia using the quarterly data from Q1 1992 to Q4 2019. The process involves applying an Autoregressive Distribution Lag estimation to investigate the effects of the variables. The exchange rate volatilities include Indonesia Rupiah to US Dollar (IDR-USD), Indonesia Rupiah to Singapore Dollar (IDR-SGD), Indonesia Rupiah to Australia Dollar (IDR-AUD), Indonesia Rupiah to British Pound Sterling (IDR-GBP), and Indonesia Rupiah to Euro (IDR-EURO). Several results were obtained and the first to show the adjustment time for exchange rate volatility to achieve long-run equilibrium was 1.77 quarters to 2.26 quarters using the ARDL estimation. Secondly, a decrease in the central bank rate was found to significantly reduce the exchange rate volatility in the short run and long run. These results are robust since Full Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) estimation was applied for all five models. Furthermore, it was found that in the long run, the central bank policy rate had a significant positive effect on the volatility of the Indonesia Rupiah against five foreign exchange rates. Therefore, it was suggested that the policymakers need to keep the interest rate of the central bank low and stable to ensure the Rupiah exchange rate stability.
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Meyer, Daniel Francois, and Lerato Mothibi. "The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 7 (June 24, 2021): 288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070288.
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Over the last decade, the South African economy has endured prevailing economic challenges, including weak economic growth, unreliable electricity supply, rising fiscal deficits, declining investment inflows and the inexorable rise in government debt alongside the expected impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Credit ratings have significantly evolved, making them key elements in the modern financial markets because of their creditworthiness opinions, as many investors across the globe rely heavily on their opinions. A quantitative research approach was followed using data from 1994Q1 to 2020Q2. The analysis entailed a descriptive and econometric analysis where two models were estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal long-run relationships between economic growth (GDP), risk rating index, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rate, gross fixed capital formation and lending rates. The results also reveal a bi-directional causality between economic growth and the rating index and between FDI and the rating index. This study’s findings suggest that investments and economic growth in the country need to be stimulated significantly to impact risk rating agencies decisions. Policymakers need to redirect resources towards effective and efficient capital-forming initiatives and development projects to improve the country’s sovereign risk rating to re-ignite growth.
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Aregbeshola, Rafiu Adewale. "The machination of foreign direct investment flow to emerging markets – a focus on Africa." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 9, no. 4 (December 3, 2018): 430–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-12-2017-0313.
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Purpose The deterministic role of various macroeconomic fundamentals on the attractiveness of countries to inflow of FDI is well documented in literature. The role of market size, infrastructural development, inflation and exchange rates differential have been supported as determinants of FDI direction. However, no documented study has benefited from diverse measures of institutional adequacy as presented in this study. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts various econometric approaches that include descriptive statistics, fixed effects models, LM test of independence, feasible generalised least squares regression and SUR estimations. Findings This study unveils the specific impacts and explanatory power of each of the variables along country lines, and the author compares the results of some emerging markets in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America to some selected countries in Africa. Using data set from various sources over a period of 44 years in a seemingly unrelated regression environment, this study suggests that poor technological capability, inadequate political system, weak productivity gains are major deterrents to the attractiveness of African countries to inflow of FDI. Research limitations/implications The major limitation of this study revolves around availability of usable data, which compels the researcher to limit the focus and the span of time series. Practical implications The study suggests the need to improve institutional quality in emerging economies, especially countries in Africa in order to enhance their attractiveness to FDI inflow. More importantly, the study found that low capital productivity gains hinder the attractiveness of African emerging markets to FDI inflow. Social implications To alleviate poverty, attraction of FDI is considered important, and the improvement of institutional functionality in that regard is found to be important. The need to augment technological improvement is considered very important and critical. Originality/value This serves to confirm that the article entitled “The Machination of Foreign Direct Investment Flow to Emerging Markets – A focus on Africa” is my own original work, envisaged to contribute to the debate about the role of macroeconomic fundamentals, especially capital productivity gains as determinants of a country’s attractiveness to inflow of foreign capital in academic literature. All the sources used and consulted have been fully acknowledged by a way of complete referencing. The author hereby agrees to the terms and conditions as stipulated by the publisher and the editorial board of this prestigious journal.
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Hasan, Arshad, and Zafar Mueen Nasir. "Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach." Pakistan Development Review 47, no. 4II (December 1, 2008): 501–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v47i4iipp.501-513.
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The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.
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Kallianiotis, Ioannis N. "Exchange Rate Determination: The Portfolio-Balance Approach." Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, October 13, 2020, 19–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1112.
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The portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination is part of the Asset Market Models and is largely attributed to economists after 1973 when the exchange rate became flexible (market determined). This article first introduces the setting of the model embedded in the portfolio balance approach that encompasses two assets (money and bonds), which deviates a little from the models and approaches used for the monetary approach to the balance of payment, the overshooting model, and from the associated market equilibria. The effects of monetary policy, of current account, and of wealth under the portfolio-balance approach are examined, here, theoretically and empirically. The current econometric results show that the exchange rate is determined by the foreign bonds, the domestic interest rate, and the foreign interest rate. JEL classification numbers: F31, F47, E52, E41, C52, E21, E43. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy, Demand for Money, Model Evaluation and Testing, Consumption and Saving, Interest Rates.
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Dona, Elva. "Model Dinamik Paritas Suku Bunga Indonesia Menggunakan Error Correction Model." JURNAL PUNDI 1, no. 3 (March 31, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.31575/jp.v1i3.10.
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The purchasing power parity doctrine in determining exchange rate changes focuses on price factor changes (Jiang, Li, Chang, & Su, 2013)This study examines how currency and interest rates interact with each other to achieve a balance position in the foreign exchange market.Through this approach the exchange rate is determined by the balance of demand and supply between two currencies. This approach also explains how the influence of economic variables such as money supply, national income, price level, and interest rate on the formation of currency rates. Data using the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2013, With econometric analysis through cointegration approach and Error Correction Model will be tested the validity of interest rate parity condition in Indonesi.Estimation of the error correction model variable (V), indicating that the variable passed the t test at 5% confidence level. It indicates that the models specification is acceptable and there is cointegration between the observed variables.
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"Annex I. Fiscal Policy Simulations Using Forward-Looking Exchange Rates in Gem by Andrew Gurney∗." National Institute Economic Review 131 (February 1990): 47–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795019013100104.
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In the past year we have attempted to incorporate forward-looking exchange rates into our econometric model, GEM. This work is still at an experimental stage, and hence will not be immediately available to model-users, but we feel we have made sufficient progress to present some of the results.The introduction of forward-looking exchange rates is consistent with modern economic theories of exchange-rate determination. These view the exchange rate as an asset price, which is valued according to the expected returns from holding domestic and foreign assets. This gives rise to the short-run arbitrage condition, that the interest-rate differential between equivalent assets in different currencies should equal the expected depreciation of the exchange rate between those currencies. The expected depreciation is determined by a longer-term view of the currencies' worth, which can be related to the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which would achieve a balance between the current account and long-term capital account flows. Previous work at the Institute has expanded on some of these issues. Davies (1988) and Gurney (1988) look at some the issues raised by forward-looking exchange rates. Barrell, Gurney, Pesaran and Wren-Lewis (1988) look at alternative forward-looking models and Barrell and Wren-Lewis (1989) investigate FEERs based on the trade equations used in GEM.
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"The Influence of Oil Prices on Stock Market Returns in Saudi Arabian Companies: The Implementation of Econometric Models." MANAGEMENT AND ECONOMICS REVIEW 6, no. 2 (December 12, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.24818/mer/2021.12-10.
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The countries in the sample are of special importance, as they have different rates of growth, different important characteristics of the financial system and levels of stock market progress. The research looks on equity market growth and measures its foreign economic effect, not in terms of profitability to investors (not beyond the scope of our study), but in terms of progress relative to the scale of these economies and the capital expenditure fund needs of those countries. The data used in this study were taken from GCC's monthly time series over the 2008-2018 period. Such factors are actual interest rates, global development level, commodity market returns on commodities and the true price of oil (in US dollars). Thomson Reuters DataStream, Bloomberg and OECD database gather data for this study. For this study, the actual interest rate was selected as this element illustrates market swings. The Industrial Production Index has defined it since the overall energy consumption in an economy is calculated by the amount of products and services generated in the region. The research implemented and econometric approach throughout addressing data from 2008 till 2018 which means 10 years to study the impact of oil prices, exchange rates and their impact on stock market, case Saudi Arabia. The key results showed that the contemporary and postponed impacts on economic development in either capital market liquidity, as measured by turnover or economic change, as measured by the institutional efficiency index. The relationship predictor (investment / Turnover ratio) was seen for the Arab countries to have an important result from the robustness measure. Implementing the strategy of gross capital expenditure expansion and the turnover partnership will lead to a positive impact on the connection between country expenditure and stock market liquidity during the competitive growth model.
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Feng, Yun, and Yan Cui. "Dual and single hedging strategy: a novel comparison from the direct and cross hedging perspective." China Finance Review International ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (December 8, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cfri-05-2020-0053.
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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to deeply study and compare the dual and single hedging strategy, from the direct and cross hedging perspective.Design/methodology/approachThe authors not only first consider the dual hedge of integrated risks in this oil prices and foreign exchange rates setting but also make a novel comparison between the dual and single hedging strategy from a direct and cross hedging perspective. In total, six econometric models (to conduct one-step-ahead out-of-sample rolling estimation of the optimal hedge ratio) and two hedging performance criteria are employed in two different hedging backgrounds (direct and cross hedging).FindingsResults show that in the direct hedging background, a dual hedge cannot outperform the single hedge. But in the cross dual hedging setting, a dual hedge performs much better, possibly because the dual hedge brings different levels of advantages and disadvantages in the two different settings and the superiority of the dual hedge is more obvious in the cross dual hedging setting.Originality/valueThe existing literature that deals with oil prices and foreign exchange rates mostly concentrates on their relationship and comovements, while the dual hedge of integrated risks in this setting remains underresearched. Besides, the existing literature that deals with dual hedge gets its conclusions only based on a single specific background (direct or cross hedging) and lacks deeper investigation. In this paper, the authors expand the width and depth of the existing literature. Results and implications are revealing.
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"The dynamics of export-import interaction." Journal of Economics and International Relations, no. 13 (2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2310-9513-2021-13-06.
Full textAbstract:
This work is devoted to the dynamic interpretation of the basic provisions of the quantitative theory of money. Namely, the construction of models of price changes for marketable products in the performance of export-import activities both in discrete and continuous time. A number of hypotheses are used to determine the conditions for the violation of the equilibrium states of the trade balance using the classical macroeconomic Fisher equation. An overview of scientific works is presented, which highlights the main factors for the implementation of foreign economic activity: exchange rates and devaluation. The analysis of the considered sources testifies to the presence of the problem of stability of the observed dynamic processes in the vicinity of the state of equilibrium, which have the traditional name of the Marshall-Lerner condition. A detailed study of the stability criteria of a discrete dynamic model with quadratic nonlinearity demonstrates a significant variety of trajectories of the studied process. These are, in particular, increasing or decreasing aperiodic behavior, oscillating processes of a fixed period, bifurcations of doubling the period and chaotic trajectories. The limits of distribution of various types of evolutionary changes in terms of elasticities as important indicators of export-import operations are indicated. For models of pricing dynamics in continuous time, a detailed analysis of the structural instability of equilibrium states was performed. Saddle-nodal bifurcation and no less important Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, which is associated with the formation of a boundary cycle around the equilibrium state, are distinguished. It is proved that the found cycle is unique and stable. For a discrete model of price formation, appropriate calculations are performed to demonstrate different types of evolutionary behavior. The given discrete model based on the Fisher equation can be used for qualitative forecasting (by trajectories) of the dynamics of internal pricing without the use of traditional methodology of econometric analysis of time series. This model is characterized by the fact that it is reduced to a single complex parameter and this greatly simplifies the definition of the corresponding types of dynamical regimes in the vicinity of equilibrium states.