Journal articles on the topic 'Foreign exchange – Econometric models – Australia'

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1

Islam, Tamanna, Ashfaque A. Mohib, and Shahnaz Zarin Haque. "Econometric Models for Forecasting Remittances of Bangladesh." Business and Management Studies 4, no. 1 (December 13, 2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/bms.v4i1.2860.

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At present, the remittance of Bangladesh (RB) is the largest source of foreign exchange earning of the country. The RB plays a critical role in alleviating the foreign-exchange constraint and supporting the balance of payments, enabling imports of capital goods and raw materials for industrial development. Remittance from overseas migrant workers certainly increases the income disparity between classes of the rural society. Therefore forecasting plays an important role to know the future situation of economic condition. This paper employed the prospective data on RB to derive a unique and suitable forecasting model. The data were collected from Bangladesh Bank (BB) during January, 1998 to December, 2003. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models were used to find out the best one. The findings indicated that the ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,2,1)12 and the GARCH (2,1) models were appropriate for our data and the GARCH (2,1) model appeared to be the best one between these.
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Chen, An-Sing, and Mark T. Leung. "Dynamic Foreign Currency Trading Guided by Adaptive Forecasting." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 01, no. 03 (September 1998): 383–418. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091598000247.

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The difficulty in predicting exchange rates has been a long-standing problem in international finance as most standard econometric methods are unable to produce significantly better forecasts than the random walk model. Recent studies provide some evidence for the ability of multivariate time-series models to generate better forecasts. At the same time, artificial neural network models have been emerging as alternatives to predict exchange rates. In this paper we propose a nonlinear forecast model combining the neural network with the multivariate econometric framework. This hybrid model contains two forecasting stages. A time series approach based on Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) models is applied to the first stage of forecasting. The estimates from BVAR are then used by the nonparametric General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to generate enhanced forecasts. To evaluate the economic impact of forecasts, we develop a set of currency trading rules guided by these models. The optimal conditions implied by the investment rules maximize the expected profits given the expected changes in exchange rates and the interest rate differentials between domestic and foreign countries. Both empirical and simulation experiments suggest that the proposed nonlinear adaptive forecasting model not only produces better forecasts but also results in higher investment returns than other types of models. The effect of risk aversion is also considered in the investment simulation.
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ZIMMERMANN, GEORG, RALPH NEUNEIER, and RALPH GROTHMANN. "MULTI-AGENT MARKET MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES." Advances in Complex Systems 04, no. 01 (March 2001): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021952590100005x.

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A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The macroeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.
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Aries, Morgan, Gianfranco Giromini, and Gunter Meissner. "A Model for a Fair Exchange Rate." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 09, no. 01 (March 2006): 51–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091506000641.

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Financial markets have developed formulas and models to derive fair values for bonds, futures, swaps, options and other securities. This model derives a fair value of an exchange rate, which might be used as a benchmark for a long-term equilibrium level to stabilize currency markets. The model is based on the value-added tax adjusted purchasing power parity exchange rate. This rate is then modified by five components: the macro-economic component, the foreign currency reserve component, the debt component, the interest rate component, and the political stability/leadership component. With respect to the American dollar, the model shows that the Euro and the Japanese Yen are overvalued compared to its current exchange rate, while the Brazilian Real, the Russian Ruble, the Chinese Yuan and the Australian dollar are currently undervalued.
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Sun, Wenxiang, Jisheng Peng, Juelin Ma, and Weiguo Zhong. "Evolution and performance of Chinese technology policy." Journal of Technology Management in China 4, no. 3 (September 25, 2009): 195–216. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17468770911013528.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the evolution of Chinese technology policy, assess its technological and economic performance from the visual angle of “market in exchange for technology” strategy.Design/methodology/approachA quantified method based on policy contents from policy power, policy goals and policy means was developed to build a policy database, and analyze the evolutionary tendency of Chinese technology policy. In addition, econometric models were built to assess the performance of technology policy.FindingsThe critical goals of Chinese technology policy are introducing technology directly or indirectly by introducing foreign investment and innovation, but the critical linkage between introduction and innovation‐technology absorption was absent – almost all policy means aim at the introduction of foreign investment and innovation but not technology absorption. More unfortunately, the econometric results show that introduction of foreign investment contributes little, while technology absorption contributes much more. Institutional path‐dependence and the competition for benefits among different departments have aggravated an already unbalanced emphasis on technology policies during the reform.Research limitations/implicationsDuring the quantification of technology policy, one perhaps loses some information about policy, and it can only be used to analyze the technology policy system, not special technology policy.Practical implicationsAnalyses of the evolution of Chinese technology policy and econometric results show the blunder of “market in exchange for technology” strategy from policy formulation and execution. Also, it leads to the optimization of technology policy from policy targets, implements based on national technology and innovation strategy.Originality/valueThe paper develops the method of technology policy quantification and builds econometric models to assess the contribution of technology policy to technology progress and economy development.
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Ahmed, KHATTAB, and SALMI Yahya. "Modeling Sources of Asymmetry in the Volatility of the Moroccan Dirham Exchange Rate." Applied Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (July 26, 2021): 31. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/aef.v8i4.5232.

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The main objective of this paper is to study the sources of asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral exchange rates of the Moroccan dirham (MAD), against the EUR and the USD using the asymmetric econometric models of the ARCH-GARCH family. An empirical analysis was conducted on daily central bank data from March 2003 to March 2021, with a sample size of 4575 observations. Central bank intervention in the foreign exchange (interbank) market was found to affect the asymmetry in the volatility of the bilateral EUR/MAD and USD/MAD exchange rates. Specifically, sales of foreign exchange reserves by the monetary authority cause a fall in the exchange rate, which means that the market response to shocks is asymmetric. Finally, the selection criterion (AIC) allowed us to conclude that the asymmetric model AR(1)-TGARCH(1,1) is adequate for modeling the volatility of the exchange rate of the Moroccan dirham.
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Shafiullah, Muhammad, Luke Emeka Okafor, and Usman Khalid. "Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories." Tourism Economics 25, no. 2 (September 20, 2018): 274–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354816618800642.

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This article explores whether the determinants of international tourism demand differ by states and territories in Australia. This is the first attempt at econometric modelling of international tourism demand in the states and territories of Australia. A demand model is specified where international visits to states and territories is a function of world income, state-level transportation costs, stock of foreign-born residents, the Australian real exchange rate and the price levels of international and domestic substitutes. Panel and time series econometric techniques are employed to test the model variables for stationarity, cointegration and direction of causality. Panel and time series cointegration tests show that the model is cointegrated. The causality analysis indicates that all explanatory variables Granger cause international visits to the Australian states and territories. Further, we show that the impacts of the determinants of international tourism vary by states and territories. The results underscore the importance of targeted policymaking that takes into account the economic and social structure of each state and territory instead of designing tourism policies on the basis of one-size-fits-all approach.
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Bozhechkova, A. V., S. G. Sinelnikov-Murylev, and P. V. Trunin. "Factors of the Russian ruble exchange rate dynamics in the 2000s and 2010s." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 8 (August 3, 2020): 5–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2020-8-5-22.

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The article discusses the key factors of the ruble exchange rate dynamics, analyzes the features of Russian currency market in the context of inflation targeting and the application of the budget rule. The basic theoretical approaches to modeling the dynamics of real and nominal exchange rates are presented, including behavioral models of the exchange rate, the monetary model of the exchange rate, and the hypothesis of uncovered interest parity. The most important factors of long-term and short-term dynamics of the exchange rate are revealed. The results of an econometric evaluation of the models of the real and nominal ruble exchange rates using dynamic least squares method (DOLS) are presented. It is shown that the key factors shaping the dynamics of the nominal ruble exchange rate are the terms of trade, the interest rate spread, the VIX volatility index, and the operations of the Russian Ministry of Finance under the budget rule. The long-term trajectory of the real exchange rate is formed by the terms of trade conditions, the Balassa—Samuelson effect, the dynamics of net foreign assets of the private sector.
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Van der Geest, Willem. "Peter J. Montiel, Pierre-Richer Agenor, and Nadeem ul Haque. Informal Financial Markets in Developing Countries: A Macroeconomic Analysis. Published in the "Advances in Theoretical and Applied Economics" series edited by Homa Motamen-Scobie. Oxford: Blackwell. 1992. i-xi + 212 pp., including appendices. Hardbound. £40.00." Pakistan Development Review 32, no. 3 (September 1, 1993): 332–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v32i3pp.332-335.

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This volume reviews the nature and scope of informal financial markets in developing countries and elaborates on the theoretical and conceptual models which analyse 'financial repression' and other aspects of government intervention in financial markets. It also focuses on the consequences which the prevalence of informal financial markets in developing countries may have for monetary and exchange rate policy. In particular, it attempts to capture the functioning of informal, unregulated markets into macroeconomic models, working towards a general eqUilibrium model with informal financial markets. Two types of informal markets are analysed. The first are for informal lending at terms and conditions which differ greatly from those prevailing in the official banking system. The second are the 'parallel' markets for foreign exchange which tend to emerge in response to quantity restrictions on trade and administered allocation of foreign exchange to certain users at official rates, which are well below those on the parellel markets. The key question is whether these informal markets change the efficacy of monetary and credit policy-and, if they do, to what extent and in what direction? Two supporting appendices present econometric analyses of the efficiency of parallel currency markets and the degree of capital mobility in developing countries.
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Tufail, Saira, and Sadia Batool. "An Analysis of the Relationship between Inflation and Gold Prices: Evidence from Pakistan." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 18, no. 2 (July 1, 2013): 1–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2013.v18.i2.a1.

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In this study, we formulate a new inflation equation to capture the potential effects of gold and stock prices on inflation in Pakistan. We aim to assess the inflation-hedging properties of gold compared to other assets such as real estate, stock exchange securities, and foreign currency holdings. Applying time-series econometric techniques (cointegration and vector error correction models) to data for 1960–2010, we find that gold is a potential determinant of inflation in Pakistan. On the other hand, it also provides a complete hedge against unexpected inflation. Real estate assets are more than a complete hedge against expected inflation, although stock exchange securities outperform gold and real estate as a hedge against unexpected inflation. Foreign currency proves to be an insignificant hedge against inflation. Given the dual nature of the relationship between gold and inflation, it is increasingly important for the government to monitor and regulate the gold market in Pakistan. Moreover, stock market investment should be encouraged by the government given that asset price inflation does not pose a critical problem for Pakistan as yet.
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Hacioglu, Umit, Hasan Dincer, and Ismail Erkan Celik. "Conflict Risk and Its Implication on Economy and Financial System." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 2, no. 2 (November 16, 2016): 109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v2i2.638.

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<p>Considering the impacts of the conflict on the economic parameters in terms of macroeconomics, the following factors might affect the profitability of the company: foreign capital outflows, decrease in exports, increase in the interest rates, disruption of the investment climate, increase in the exchange rates, increase in the costs of import entry etc. Due to the expectable decrease in profit shares as to the investors, the contraction in the risk appetite will cause volatility in the prices of equity securities markets based on the impacts of the conflict, and the equity securities will depreciate. In this study, the main contributions on conflict risk and related econometric models have been discussed.</p>
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Panda, Ajaya Kumar, Swagatika Nanda, Vipul Kumar Singh, and Satish Kumar. "Evidence of leverage effects and volatility spillover among exchange rates of selected emerging and growth leading economies." Journal of Financial Economic Policy 11, no. 2 (May 7, 2019): 174–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-03-2018-0042.

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Purpose The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates. Findings The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods. Practical implications The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates. Originality/value This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.
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LAKSMI, PUTU IKA OKTIYARI, KOMANG DHARMAWAN, and LUH PUTU IDA HARINI. "PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL ARMAX DENGAN NILAI KURS DAN EKSPOR-IMPOR SEBAGAI FAKTOR EKSOGEN." E-Jurnal Matematika 3, no. 4 (November 28, 2014): 138. http://dx.doi.org/10.24843/mtk.2014.v03.i04.p076.

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Forecasting is science to estimate occurrence of the future. This matter can be conducted by entangling intake of past data and place to the next period with a mathematical form. This research aims to estimate the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali models using autoregressive moving average exogenous (ARMAX). The data used in this study is the number of tourists in Australia and the number of tourists in the RRC as a variable Y, and foreign currency exchange rate AUD, Chinese Yuan, and Export Import as the X factor from the period July 2009 to July 2014. In the analysis can be obtained in the best ARMAX models of the number of tourists in Australia is ARMAX(1,2,2) and the best model of the number of tourists in the RRC does not exist because the data for the ARMAX model parameters tourists no significant RRC.
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Mowlaei, Mohammad. "The impact of foreign capital inflows on economic growth on selected African countries." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 9, no. 4 (December 3, 2018): 523–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-01-2018-0021.

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Purpose Nowadays, foreign capital inflow (FCI) is considered as a catalyst for economic development and an important source of transferring technology and foreign exchange earnings from developed to developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to study, first, the impact of different forms of FCIs, namely, foreign direct investment (FDI), personal remittances (PR) and official development assistant (ODA) on economic growth on 26 top African countries; and, second, which of them is more effective on economic growth of the studied countries. The results of this paper are very important for host governments’ policy and help them to design their economic plans to absorb the suitable foreign inflow. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses Pooled Mean Group (PMG) econometric technique to estimate the heterogeneous panels over the period 1992–2016. Findings The results of the study show that all three forms of FCIs have positive and significant effects on economic growth in the long and short run. However, the PR had the most effect on economic growth in the long and short run. The study suggests that the governments should design and implement appropriate fiscal, monetary and trade policies in order to create and improve an enabling environment to attract FCIs as a supplementary source of domestic investment. Research limitations/implications The research limitations of this paper are as follows: data sets of FDI, PR and ODA were available not for all African countries; and, data sets that were available were of before the year 1992. Thus, the research is done for the African countries which had the data sets after the year 1992. Practical implications The result of this paper indicates the impact of each FDI, PR and ODA in economic growth. So, countries can take more attentions to each of them on economic planning. Social implications FCIs are one of the important external source of exchange for each country. So, the study of importance of each of them is necessary for economic planning. Originality/value Most of the previous studies have examined the impact of three different forms of FCIs on economic growth separately, on different countries and regions and using various models and econometric techniques. One of the contributions of this paper is focused on the impacts of FDI, PR and ODA on economic growth separately and simultaneously in 26 top recipient African countries and using the PMG technique which is an advanced econometrical estimation and studied less about it. The other contribution of this research is the comparison of the impact of different FCIs on economic growth, and it is very important for governments’ economic policy.
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Rana Shahid Imdad Akash, Muhammad Mudasar Ghafoor, and Navid Ahmed. "Testing the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Theory and Dynamics of Exchange Rate Behavior (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey)." Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies 6, no. 1 (March 31, 2020): 127–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.26710/jafee.v6i1.1059.

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Purpose: This study is aimed at to observe the purchasing power parity (PPP) Theory. The purchasing power parity (PPP) is the most enduring debate of literature in international macroeconomics. It is most controversial due to various puzzles and tested with different econometric models for certain group of countries. Therefore, the PPP is valid assumption while international comparison due to use of common exchange rate and the prevalence of Law of One price. Design/Methodology/Approach: The validity of PPP for relative countries (Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey) was tested and analyzed for the sample period 2001 to 2018. Findings: It is observed that exchange rates of Pakistan, China, Iran and Turkey are not consistent and constant. The deviations of PPP through structural changes identified and are not persistence over long period. Overall results reflected that there is an existence of long run equilibrium relation in between Pakistan and China as well as in between Iran and Turkey. The error correction model has confirmed the adjustment speed of short run disequilibrium to long term disequilibrium level. Implications/Originality/Value: The expected differential level of inflation has significant positive impact to exchange rate shift to Pakistan and trading activity patterns. The changes in foreign exchange market and commodity market due to economic integration are important implications for economic globalization.
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Mele, Marco. "A Logical Process about the Chaos in FOREX Financial Market." Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting 9, no. 1 (February 25, 2017): 105. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ajfa.v9i1.10343.

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Foreign exchange market has been subject of studies and discussions for many years. They were created modern theories and models to understand and predict the evolution of the price of money, and embarked on new discussions and new frontiers of study.In this paper we test the hypothesis of non-linearity and behavior chaotic the latest developments of the markets, to arrive at a solid and unambiguous conclusion on this type of dynamic systems analyzed. In particular, we introduce mathematical concepts and to study the properties of chaotic dynamics and non-linear in nature. It will delve into topics not therefore always present in economics courses in order to base the tests carried out on solid considerations from the point of view of formal mathematical. It will be followed, finally, a scientific rigor during the course of the analysis in order to give an interpretation of the results of logistic type can lead to scientific considerations different from econometric modeling.
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Nag, Tirthankar, and Chanchal Chatterjee. "Exploring Linkages Between Corporate Governance and Business Performance: Does Good Corporate Governance Lead to Enhanced Business Value?" South Asian Survey 27, no. 1 (March 2020): 37–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0971523120907189.

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This study explores the influence of corporate governance practices in corporate boards on firm performance and draws insights on the relative importance for companies for fostering the development of governance mechanisms in business. The study examines 50 firms belonging to the benchmark index of the National Stock Exchange of India (NIFTY 50) and tracks them for over a five-year period. The study uses fixed and random effect econometric models to explore the relationship between corporate governance variables, and firm performance using both accounting returns (EVA, ROA and ROE) and market returns (MVA). The study finds that corporate governance variables significantly improve firm performance or value creation. Especially, multiple directorships, involvement of foreign institutional investors and increase in promoter holdings may significantly affect returns of the firm. The study suggests that it may be useful to foster better corporate governance practices and monitor linkages with firm performance as the effect is influenced by other control variables also.
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Prevedouros, Panos D. "Origin-Specific Visitor Demand Forecasting at Honolulu International Airport." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1600, no. 1 (January 1997): 18–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.3141/1600-03.

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The development of a PC-based and easy-to-use-and-update econometric model system for forecasting arrivals at the Honolulu International Airport is presented. A model system instead of a single model was designed so that differential growth rates from various origins as well as arrivals affected by curfews at the origin or the destination, or both, can be estimated. The airport system of the state facilitates the only mode of transportation into and out of Hawaii. Planning based on reliable demand forecasts is therefore essential. Separate models of arrivals from Australia and New Zealand, Canada, Germany, Korea, and the United Kingdom were specified and estimated using the Cochrane-Orcutt regression method. Several diagnostic tests were employed to arrive at the final models, as problems of correlation (over time) and collinearity (among variables) were present. Independent variables include the gross domestic product, population, monetary exchange rate, and unemployment rate of the origin countries. Historical values for the independent variables were taken from the publications of international organizations. Variables for wars that tend to affect flying security and natural disasters in Hawaii that affect the supply of tourist accommodations were included in the model specifications.
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Shen, Mei-Li, Cheng-Feng Lee, Hsiou-Hsiang Liu, Po-Yin Chang, and Cheng-Hong Yang. "An Effective Hybrid Approach for Forecasting Currency Exchange Rates." Sustainability 13, no. 5 (March 4, 2021): 2761. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13052761.

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Accurately forecasting the movement of exchange rates is of interest in a variety of fields, such as international business, financial management, and monetary policy, though this is not an easy task due to dramatic fluctuations caused by political and economic events. In this study, we develop a new forecasting approach referred to as FSPSOSVR, which is able to accurately predict exchange rates by combining particle swarm optimization (PSO), random forest feature selection, and support vector regression (SVR). PSO is used to obtain the optimal SVR parameters for predicting exchange rates. Our analysis involves the monthly exchange rates from January 1971 to December 2017 of seven countries including Australia, Canada, China, the European Union, Japan, Taiwan, and the United Kingdom. The out-of-sample forecast performance of the FSPSOSVR algorithm is compared with six competing forecasting models using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE), including random walk, exponential smoothing, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), seasonal ARIMA, SVR, and PSOSVR. Our empirical results show that the FSPSOSVR algorithm consistently yields excellent predictive accuracy, which compares favorably with competing models for all currencies. These findings suggest that the proposed algorithm is a promising method for the empirical forecasting of exchange rates. Finally, we show the empirical relevance of exchange rate forecasts arising from FSPSOSVR by use of foreign exchange carry trades and find that the proposed trading strategies can deliver positive excess returns of more than 3% per annum for most currencies, except for AUD and NTD.
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Jaiblai, Prince, and Vijay Shenai. "The Determinants of FDI in Sub-Saharan Economies: A Study of Data from 1990–2017." International Journal of Financial Studies 7, no. 3 (August 12, 2019): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs7030043.

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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring in much needed capital, particularly to developing countries, help improve manufacturing and trade sectors, bring in more efficient technologies, increase local production and exports, create jobs and develop local skills, and bring about improvements in infrastructure and overall be a contributor to sustainable economic growth. With all these desirable features, it becomes relevant to ascertain the factors which attract FDI to an economy or a group of adjacent economies. This paper explores the determinants of FDI in ten sub-Saharan economies: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Cameroun, and Senegal. After an extensive literature review of theories and empirical research, using a set of cross-sectional data over the period 1990–2017, two econometric models are estimated with FDI/GDP (the ratio of Foreign Direct Investment to Gross Domestic Product) as the dependent variable, and with inflation, exchange rate changes, openness, economy size (GDP), income levels (GNI/capita (Gross National Income) per capita), and infrastructure as the independent variables. Over the period, higher inflows of FDI in relation to GDP appear to be have been attracted to the markets with better infrastructure, smaller markets, and lower income levels, with higher openness and depreciation in the exchange rate, though the coefficients of the last two variables are not significant. These results show the type of FDI attracted to investments in this region and are evaluated from theoretical and practical viewpoints. FDI is an important source of finance for developing economies. On average, between 2013 and 2017, FDI accounted for 39 percent of external finance for developing economies. Policy guidelines are formulated for the enhancement of FDI inflows and further economic development in this region. Such a study of this region has not been made in the recent past.
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Meyer, Daniel Francois, and Lerato Mothibi. "The Effect of Risk Rating Agencies Decisions on Economic Growth and Investment in a Developing Country: The Case of South Africa." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 14, no. 7 (June 24, 2021): 288. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14070288.

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Over the last decade, the South African economy has endured prevailing economic challenges, including weak economic growth, unreliable electricity supply, rising fiscal deficits, declining investment inflows and the inexorable rise in government debt alongside the expected impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Credit ratings have significantly evolved, making them key elements in the modern financial markets because of their creditworthiness opinions, as many investors across the globe rely heavily on their opinions. A quantitative research approach was followed using data from 1994Q1 to 2020Q2. The analysis entailed a descriptive and econometric analysis where two models were estimated using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. The findings reveal long-run relationships between economic growth (GDP), risk rating index, foreign direct investment (FDI), exchange rate, gross fixed capital formation and lending rates. The results also reveal a bi-directional causality between economic growth and the rating index and between FDI and the rating index. This study’s findings suggest that investments and economic growth in the country need to be stimulated significantly to impact risk rating agencies decisions. Policymakers need to redirect resources towards effective and efficient capital-forming initiatives and development projects to improve the country’s sovereign risk rating to re-ignite growth.
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Supriyatna, Rio Kartika, Dedi Junaedi, and Evi Novita. "PENGARUH STABILITAS MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN NASIONAL." Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah 1, no. 2 (September 30, 2019): 119–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.47467/alkharaj.v1i2.57.

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ABSTRACTObjectives of this research is to analyze: Does monetary stability affect Indonesia's GDP?; Does the difference ingovernance regimes affect the governance of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP?; Doesmonetary stability affect Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?; Does the difference in government regimes affect themanagement of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?.The research method uses descriptive-quantitative analysis with saturated sampling techniques and secondary datafrom Bank Indonesia, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the WorldBank, and other reference sources. The data is in the form of time series data from the period 1990-2019. The dependentvariable is the value of GDP and GDP per capita (ICP). While the independent variable: the exchange rate, the money supply,the inflation rate, direct investment, financing, the state budget, the amount of debt (US $), the number of exports, the numberof imports, and the dummy variable period of the reform era government with the era of the New Order Government(Soeharto) as comparison or reference. The processed data were analyzed in quantitative descriptive with multipleregression models with dummy variables.The result is that some indicators of monetary stability (money supply, exchange rate, BI rate, investment, imports, andthe state budget) have a significant effect on the economy (GDP). While inflation, financing and foreign debt did notsignificantly affect GDP achievement. The Reformation government regimes (BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, MegawatiSukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) are different and better than the New Order (Soeharto)government in managing stability towards achieving GDP. The econometrics model is GDP$ = 178,542 + 0.0999 * M1M2 -0.0186 * EXCHANGE $ + 9.5872 * BI_RATE + 1.1935 * INVEST $ - 0.000225 * IMPORT + 0.181 * APBN + 182.488 * REZIM1 +171.038 * REZIM2 + 199.86 * REZIM3 + REVIMIM3 + 214.599 * REZIM5. Some indicators of monetary stability (money supply,exchange rate, BI rate, investment, import and APBN) also have a significant effect on GDP per capita. While inflation,financing and foreign debt did not significantly affect the achievement of GDP per capita. The Reform era government regime(BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) differed andmore better than the New Order era administration (Soeharto) in governance stability. to the achievement of GDP per capita.The econometric model: PCIUS$ = 5.7594 + 0.0032 * M1M2 - 0.0006 * EXCHANGE$ + 0.3092 * BI_RATE + 0.0385 * INVEST$ -0.0000072 * IMPORT + 0.0058 * APBN + 5.8867 * REZIM1 + 5.5173 * REZIM2 + 6.4471 * REZIM3 + 6.ZZ * REZIM5.JEL CLASSIFICATION: E52, E58, E63Keywords: economy, financial, GDP, monetary, PCI, stability
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Rushchyshyn, Nadiya, Tetyana Medynska, Uliana Nikonenko, Zoryana Kostak, and Roksolana Ivanova. "REGULATORY AND LEGAL COMPONENT IN ENSURING STATE’S FINANCIAL SECURITY." Business: Theory and Practice 22, no. 2 (August 24, 2021): 232–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/btp.2021.13580.

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The purpose of the study is to scientifically substantiate the place and role of regulatory support in the formation of financial security, study the factors influencing its level and identify ways to improve it. The study used general scientific and special research methods: analysis, synthesis, methods of systematization and logical generalization − when disclosing the theoretical provisions of the financial security of the state and its legal regulation; correlation and regression analysis, econometric methods and models − to determine and study the influence of factor values on the volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves of the NBU; method of expert assessments − when developing recommendations for the formation of an effective mechanism for ensuring the financial security of the state, a graphical method. The nature and significance of the legal support of financial security are outlined, which is aimed at creating an improved legal framework and a system for controlling financial business entities in order to detect and prevent financial crimes. The factors influencing the level of the state’s financial security are considered. Their influence on the volume of gold and exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine which in the conditions of financial stability should be balanced is determined. The mechanism to ensure the state’s financial security is offered, which further contributes to the implementation of a set of legal, structural and organizational, procedural, personnel, technological and resource tasks. In the future special attention should be paid to improving the current legal framework that would protect the interests of entities of a financial system from illegal encroachment and help recover offense damages. All these measures will contribute to raising the level of the state’s financial security and will help integrate the state into the international financial and economic space.
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Aregbeshola, Rafiu Adewale. "The machination of foreign direct investment flow to emerging markets – a focus on Africa." African Journal of Economic and Management Studies 9, no. 4 (December 3, 2018): 430–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ajems-12-2017-0313.

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Purpose The deterministic role of various macroeconomic fundamentals on the attractiveness of countries to inflow of FDI is well documented in literature. The role of market size, infrastructural development, inflation and exchange rates differential have been supported as determinants of FDI direction. However, no documented study has benefited from diverse measures of institutional adequacy as presented in this study. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach The paper adopts various econometric approaches that include descriptive statistics, fixed effects models, LM test of independence, feasible generalised least squares regression and SUR estimations. Findings This study unveils the specific impacts and explanatory power of each of the variables along country lines, and the author compares the results of some emerging markets in Asia, Eastern Europe, and South America to some selected countries in Africa. Using data set from various sources over a period of 44 years in a seemingly unrelated regression environment, this study suggests that poor technological capability, inadequate political system, weak productivity gains are major deterrents to the attractiveness of African countries to inflow of FDI. Research limitations/implications The major limitation of this study revolves around availability of usable data, which compels the researcher to limit the focus and the span of time series. Practical implications The study suggests the need to improve institutional quality in emerging economies, especially countries in Africa in order to enhance their attractiveness to FDI inflow. More importantly, the study found that low capital productivity gains hinder the attractiveness of African emerging markets to FDI inflow. Social implications To alleviate poverty, attraction of FDI is considered important, and the improvement of institutional functionality in that regard is found to be important. The need to augment technological improvement is considered very important and critical. Originality/value This serves to confirm that the article entitled “The Machination of Foreign Direct Investment Flow to Emerging Markets – A focus on Africa” is my own original work, envisaged to contribute to the debate about the role of macroeconomic fundamentals, especially capital productivity gains as determinants of a country’s attractiveness to inflow of foreign capital in academic literature. All the sources used and consulted have been fully acknowledged by a way of complete referencing. The author hereby agrees to the terms and conditions as stipulated by the publisher and the editorial board of this prestigious journal.
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Mejía-Matute, Silvia Raquel, and Luis Gabriel Pinos-Luzuriaga. "Petróleo y Enfermedad Holandesa en el Ecuador, 2001 – 2015." UDA AKADEM, no. 7 (April 1, 2021): 158–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.33324/udaakadem.vi7.373.

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La literatura de la economía del desarrollo, considera que un país con auge por hidrocarburos sufre de la enfermedad holandesa cuando el incremento del ingreso de capitales por el sector en auge, las remesas o la inversión extranjera, producen apreciación del tipo de cambio real que provoca desindustrialización. Los objetivos de esta investigación fueron establecer si la economía ecuatoriana sufrió del mal holandés en el segundo auge petrolero del Ecuador, entre el periodo 2001-2014 y determinar las variables que explican estos síntomas. Para ello, se realiza un análisis descriptivo basado en información del Banco Central y se construyen dos modelos econométricos con series de tiempo, donde las variables independientes son el tipo de cambio real y el peso de los bienes transables y los bienes no transables. Las variables independientes son el precio del petróleo, el gasto público, el índice de precios del consumidor y las exportaciones manufactureras. Los resultados muestran que la economía ecuatoriana presentó síntomas del mal holandés como el estancamiento de la industria, pero, no existe suficiente evidencia empírica que permita aseverar que fue causado por la apreciación del tipo de cambio real y el incremento de los precios del petróleo. Palabras clave: Enfermedad Holandesa, Petróleo, Tipo de Cambio Real, Transables y No Transables. Abstract The literature on development economics considers that a country with a hydrocarbon boom suffers from the Dutch Disease when the increase in capital inflows by the booming sector, remittances or foreign investment produces appreciation of the real exchange rate that causes deindustrialization. The objectives of this research were to establish if the Ecuadorian economy suffered from Dutch disease in the second oil boom in Ecuador between the period 2001 - 2014 and to determine the variables that explain these symptoms. For this, a descriptive analysis based on information from the Central Bank is carried out and two econometric models with time series are constructed, where the independent variables are the real exchange rate and the weight of tradable goods and nontradable goods. The independent variables are the price of oil, public spending, consumer´s price index and manufacturing exports. The results show that the Ecuadorian economy presented symptoms of the Dutch disease such as the stagnation of the industry, but there is not enough empirical evidence to assert that it was caused by the appreciation of the real exchange rate and the increase in oil prices.Keywords: Dutch Disease, Oil, Real Exchange Rate, Tradable and Non-Tradable
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Hasan, Arshad, and Zafar Mueen Nasir. "Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach." Pakistan Development Review 47, no. 4II (December 1, 2008): 501–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v47i4iipp.501-513.

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The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.
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Kallianiotis, Ioannis N. "Exchange Rate Determination: The Portfolio-Balance Approach." Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, October 13, 2020, 19–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.47260/jafb/1112.

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The portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination is part of the Asset Market Models and is largely attributed to economists after 1973 when the exchange rate became flexible (market determined). This article first introduces the setting of the model embedded in the portfolio balance approach that encompasses two assets (money and bonds), which deviates a little from the models and approaches used for the monetary approach to the balance of payment, the overshooting model, and from the associated market equilibria. The effects of monetary policy, of current account, and of wealth under the portfolio-balance approach are examined, here, theoretically and empirically. The current econometric results show that the exchange rate is determined by the foreign bonds, the domestic interest rate, and the foreign interest rate. JEL classification numbers: F31, F47, E52, E41, C52, E21, E43. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy, Demand for Money, Model Evaluation and Testing, Consumption and Saving, Interest Rates.
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28

Saatcioglu, Cem. "An Analysis Of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence From Turkey." International Business & Economics Research Journal (IBER) 5, no. 9 (February 17, 2011). http://dx.doi.org/10.19030/iber.v5i9.3506.

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This paper investigates the characteristics of the foreign exchange operations of the CBRT during the period following the Turkish economic crisis in February 2001. Using time series based econometric models, we estimate the parameters of the FOREX market, along with the degree of effectiveness of the interventions of the monetary authority and the inflation targeting framework it employs. The results indicate that the CBRT interventions are inefficient and are mainly influenced by the uncertainties inherent in the economic environment, and cannot decrease the volatility of the exchange markets.
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"EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE INDEX AS A MACROECONOMIC RISK MEASURING INSTRUMENT." ECONOMY AND SOCIOLOGY 2020 NO. 1, no. 1 (July 15, 2020): 10–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.36004/nier.es.2020.1-01.

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The financial sector of the Republic of Moldova belongs to the developing ones and is characterized by a higher level of risk and, therefore, a higher likelihood of a systemic crisis. Globalization and development of advanced information technologies not only create great opportunities for rapid economic development, but also pose serious security threats to the economic development of states, especially in a developing economy. In these conditions, the issue of ensuring the financial stability of the state is becoming increasingly relevant. The state of the financial and foreign exchange market represents one of the most important aspects of the financial security of the state. This study has been developed as part of the scientific project 15.817.06.02A "Development of tools for measuring the financial stability of the state". The study analyzes various macrofinancial risk management tools. The purpose of this study was to calculate the pressure index on the foreign exchange market of both the Republic of Moldova and the main partner countries in terms of international trade. The results of related studies conducted by the authors of this work, which revealed that stability indicators in the foreign exchange market are associated with foreign trade risks served as an argument for the authors of the work to calculate the pressure index on the currency market of Romania and the Russian Federation for comparison with the indicators of the Republic of Moldova. Methods used in research include theoretical and comparative approaches, descriptive statistics and econometric models. The results of the research showed that international trade and the foreign exchange market are interdependent. The first can be considered a channel for transmitting the currency crisis, since demand increases with increasing imports, and this leads to increased pressure on the foreign exchange market. Increased exports reduce pressure on the foreign exchange market. But the greatest impact on the foreign exchange market in the Republic of Moldova is made by remittances from abroad, which are directly correlated with the dynamics of labor exports. At the same time, it was concluded that at present, due to macroprudential regulation, there are no linear dependencies in financial markets and, therefore, there are no correlations, but only the interdependence of variables.
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Dona, Elva. "Model Dinamik Paritas Suku Bunga Indonesia Menggunakan Error Correction Model." JURNAL PUNDI 1, no. 3 (March 31, 2018). http://dx.doi.org/10.31575/jp.v1i3.10.

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The purchasing power parity doctrine in determining exchange rate changes focuses on price factor changes (Jiang, Li, Chang, & Su, 2013)This study examines how currency and interest rates interact with each other to achieve a balance position in the foreign exchange market.Through this approach the exchange rate is determined by the balance of demand and supply between two currencies. This approach also explains how the influence of economic variables such as money supply, national income, price level, and interest rate on the formation of currency rates. Data using the first quarter of 2000 through the fourth quarter of 2013, With econometric analysis through cointegration approach and Error Correction Model will be tested the validity of interest rate parity condition in Indonesi.Estimation of the error correction model variable (V), indicating that the variable passed the t test at 5% confidence level. It indicates that the models specification is acceptable and there is cointegration between the observed variables.
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"Financial Forecasting Model in Developed and Developing Economies." International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering 8, no. 3S3 (December 16, 2019): 291–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.35940/ijrte.c1067.1183s319.

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The study focused on the volatility forecasting in developed and developing share market. The objective of the study was to evaluate the ability of six different statistical and econometric volatility forecasting models in the context of India, Brazil, Japan and US stock market from November 1994 till February 2005 on the basis of four evaluation error measures statistics which are mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), Theil’s U (TU) and MAPE. The monthly data of stock market index of India, Brazil, Japan and US were collected from January 1992 till April 2005 and also monthly data of stock market index, discount rate, consumer price index (CPI), industrial production and foreign exchange reserves of India, Brazil, Japan and US respectively were collected. Then further analysis was done using four forecasting models which were moving average, exponential weighted moving average, multiple regression, GARCH. The study found out that GARCH and MAE forecasting models are superior in developed market as well as developing market like India.
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32

"Annex I. Fiscal Policy Simulations Using Forward-Looking Exchange Rates in Gem by Andrew Gurney∗." National Institute Economic Review 131 (February 1990): 47–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/002795019013100104.

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In the past year we have attempted to incorporate forward-looking exchange rates into our econometric model, GEM. This work is still at an experimental stage, and hence will not be immediately available to model-users, but we feel we have made sufficient progress to present some of the results.The introduction of forward-looking exchange rates is consistent with modern economic theories of exchange-rate determination. These view the exchange rate as an asset price, which is valued according to the expected returns from holding domestic and foreign assets. This gives rise to the short-run arbitrage condition, that the interest-rate differential between equivalent assets in different currencies should equal the expected depreciation of the exchange rate between those currencies. The expected depreciation is determined by a longer-term view of the currencies' worth, which can be related to the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER), which would achieve a balance between the current account and long-term capital account flows. Previous work at the Institute has expanded on some of these issues. Davies (1988) and Gurney (1988) look at some the issues raised by forward-looking exchange rates. Barrell, Gurney, Pesaran and Wren-Lewis (1988) look at alternative forward-looking models and Barrell and Wren-Lewis (1989) investigate FEERs based on the trade equations used in GEM.
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Feng, Yun, and Yan Cui. "Dual and single hedging strategy: a novel comparison from the direct and cross hedging perspective." China Finance Review International ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (December 8, 2020). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cfri-05-2020-0053.

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PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to deeply study and compare the dual and single hedging strategy, from the direct and cross hedging perspective.Design/methodology/approachThe authors not only first consider the dual hedge of integrated risks in this oil prices and foreign exchange rates setting but also make a novel comparison between the dual and single hedging strategy from a direct and cross hedging perspective. In total, six econometric models (to conduct one-step-ahead out-of-sample rolling estimation of the optimal hedge ratio) and two hedging performance criteria are employed in two different hedging backgrounds (direct and cross hedging).FindingsResults show that in the direct hedging background, a dual hedge cannot outperform the single hedge. But in the cross dual hedging setting, a dual hedge performs much better, possibly because the dual hedge brings different levels of advantages and disadvantages in the two different settings and the superiority of the dual hedge is more obvious in the cross dual hedging setting.Originality/valueThe existing literature that deals with oil prices and foreign exchange rates mostly concentrates on their relationship and comovements, while the dual hedge of integrated risks in this setting remains underresearched. Besides, the existing literature that deals with dual hedge gets its conclusions only based on a single specific background (direct or cross hedging) and lacks deeper investigation. In this paper, the authors expand the width and depth of the existing literature. Results and implications are revealing.
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Ben Salah, Olfa, and Anis Jarboui. "Dividend policy, earnings management and the moderating effect of corporate governance in the French context." Journal of Financial Economic Policy ahead-of-print, ahead-of-print (July 27, 2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jfep-02-2021-0034.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of corporate governance on the impact of earnings management on dividend policy. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors selected French non-financial companies listed on the CAC All Tradable index during the 2008–2015 period. Feasible generalized least square regression method is used to estimate the econometric models. Findings The empirical results allowed the authors to confirm and/or reject certain hypotheses. First, the ownership concentration seems to positively moderate the impact of earnings management on dividend policy. Another conclusion that the authors have been able to draw is that the effect of earnings management on dividend policy is more favorable in the case of firms with a small director’s board. Practical implications Our results have shown that French firms run earnings to inform the market that they can distribute dividends. Therefore, we recommend that the various partners of the firm pay more attention to the governance mechanisms of these types of companies and, in particular, in countries where foreign investors suffer from weak legal protection (Easterbrook, 1984; Gomes, 2000; La Porta et al., 2000 and Athari et al., 2016). In fact, standardization bodies, the Ministry of Finance, external auditors and stock exchange organizer must focus on sophisticated governance mechanisms to ensure better quality of financial reporting. Originality/value To our knowledge, no other research has examined whether the impact of earnings management on dividend policy varies significantly with the moderating effect of certain governance mechanisms in France.
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"The dynamics of export-import interaction." Journal of Economics and International Relations, no. 13 (2021). http://dx.doi.org/10.26565/2310-9513-2021-13-06.

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This work is devoted to the dynamic interpretation of the basic provisions of the quantitative theory of money. Namely, the construction of models of price changes for marketable products in the performance of export-import activities both in discrete and continuous time. A number of hypotheses are used to determine the conditions for the violation of the equilibrium states of the trade balance using the classical macroeconomic Fisher equation. An overview of scientific works is presented, which highlights the main factors for the implementation of foreign economic activity: exchange rates and devaluation. The analysis of the considered sources testifies to the presence of the problem of stability of the observed dynamic processes in the vicinity of the state of equilibrium, which have the traditional name of the Marshall-Lerner condition. A detailed study of the stability criteria of a discrete dynamic model with quadratic nonlinearity demonstrates a significant variety of trajectories of the studied process. These are, in particular, increasing or decreasing aperiodic behavior, oscillating processes of a fixed period, bifurcations of doubling the period and chaotic trajectories. The limits of distribution of various types of evolutionary changes in terms of elasticities as important indicators of export-import operations are indicated. For models of pricing dynamics in continuous time, a detailed analysis of the structural instability of equilibrium states was performed. Saddle-nodal bifurcation and no less important Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, which is associated with the formation of a boundary cycle around the equilibrium state, are distinguished. It is proved that the found cycle is unique and stable. For a discrete model of price formation, appropriate calculations are performed to demonstrate different types of evolutionary behavior. The given discrete model based on the Fisher equation can be used for qualitative forecasting (by trajectories) of the dynamics of internal pricing without the use of traditional methodology of econometric analysis of time series. This model is characterized by the fact that it is reduced to a single complex parameter and this greatly simplifies the definition of the corresponding types of dynamical regimes in the vicinity of equilibrium states.
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Luckhurst, Mary, and Jen Rae. "Diversity Agendas in Australian Stand-Up Comedy." M/C Journal 19, no. 4 (August 31, 2016). http://dx.doi.org/10.5204/mcj.1149.

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Stand-up is a global phenomenon. It is Australia’s most significant form of advocatorial theatre and a major platform for challenging stigma and prejudice. In the twenty-first century, Australian stand-up is transforming into a more culturally diverse form and extending the spectrum of material addressing human rights. Since the 1980s Australian stand-up routines have moved beyond the old colonial targets of England and America, and Indigenous comics such as Kevin Kopinyeri, Andy Saunders, and Shiralee Hood have gained an established following. Additionally, the turn to Asia is evident not just in trade agreements and the higher education market but also in cultural exchange and in the billing of emerging Asian stand-ups at mainstream events. The major cultural driver for stand-up is the Melbourne International Comedy Festival (MICF), Australia’s largest cultural event, now over 30 years old, and an important site for dissecting constructs of democracy and nationhood. As John McCallum has observed, popular humour in post-World War II Australia drew on widespread feelings of “displacement, migration and otherness—resonant topics in a country of transplanted people and a dispossessed indigenous population arguing over a distinct Australian identity” (205–06). This essay considers the traditional comic strategies of first and second generation immigrant stand-ups in Australia and compares them with the new wave of post 9/11 Asian-Australian and Middle-Eastern-Australian stand-ups whose personas and interrogations are shifting the paradigm. Self-identifying Muslim stand-ups challenge myths of dominant Australian identity in ways which many still find confronting. Furthermore, the theories of incongruity, superiority, and psychological release re-rehearsed in traditional humour studies, by figures such as Palmer (1994) and Morreall (2009), are predicated on models of humour which do not always serve live performance, especially stand-up with its relational dependence on audience interaction.Stand-ups who immigrated to Australia as children or whose parents immigrated and struggled against adversity are important symbols both of the Australian comedy industry and of a national self-understanding of migrant resilience and making good. Szubanski and Berger hail from earlier waves of European migrants in the 1950s and 1960s. Szubanski has written eloquently of her complex Irish-Polish heritage and documented how the “hand-me-down trinkets of family and trauma” and “the culture clash of competing responses to calamity” have been integral to the development of her comic success and the making of her Aussie characters (347). Rachel Berger, the child of Polish holocaust survivors, advertises and connects both identities on her LinkedIn page: “After 23 years as a stand-up comedian, growing up with Jewish guilt and refugee parents, Rachel Berger knows more about survival than any idiot attending tribal council on reality TV.”Anh Do, among Australia’s most famous immigrant stand-ups, identifies as one of the Vietnamese “boat people” and arrived as a toddler in 1976. Do’s tale of his family’s survival against the odds and his creation of a persona which constructs the grateful, happy immigrant clown is the staple of his very successful routine and increasingly problematic. It is a testament to the power of Do’s stand-up that many did not perceive the toll of the loss of his birth country; the grinding poverty; and the pain of his father’s alcoholism, violence, and survivor guilt until the publication of Do’s ironically titled memoir The Happiest Refugee. In fact, the memoir draws on many of the trauma narratives that are still part of his set. One of Do’s most legendary routines is the story of his family’s sea journey to Australia, told here on ABC1’s Talking Heads:There were forty of us on a nine metre fishing boat. On day four of the journey we spot another boat. As the boat gets closer we realise it’s a boatload of Thai pirates. Seven men with knives, machetes and guns get on our boat and they take everything. One of the pirates picks up the smallest child, he lifts up the baby and rips open the baby’s nappy and dollars fall out. And the pirate decides to spare the kid’s life. And that’s a good thing cos that’s my little brother Khoa Do who in 2005 became Young Australian of the Year. And we were saved on the fifth day by a big German merchant ship which took us to a refugee camp in Malaysia and we were there for around three months before Australia says, come to Australia. And we’re very glad that happened. So often we heard Mum and Dad say—what a great country. How good is this place? And the other thing—kids, as you grow up, do as much as you can to give back to this great country and to give back to others less fortunate.Do’s strategy is apparently one of genuflection and gratitude, an adoption of what McCallum refers to as an Australian post-war tradition of the comedy of inadequacy and embarrassment (210–14). Journalists certainly like to bill Do as the happy clown, framing articles about him with headlines like Rosemary Neill’s “Laughing through Adversity.” In fact, Do is direct about his gallows humour and his propensity to darkness: his humour, he says, is a means of countering racism, of “being able to win people over who might have been averse to being friends with an Asian bloke,” but Neill does not linger on this, nor on the revelation that Do felt stigmatised by his refugee origins and terrified and shamed by the crippling poverty of his childhood in Australia. In The Happiest Refugee, Do reveals that, for him, the credibility of his routines with predominantly white Australian audiences lies in the crafting of himself as an “Aussie comedian up there talking about his working-class childhood” (182). This is not the official narrative that is retold even if it is how Do has endeared himself to Australians, and ridding himself of the happy refugee label may yet prove difficult. Suren Jayemanne is well known for his subtle mockery of multiculturalist rhetoric. In his 2016 MICF show, Wu-Tang Clan Name Generator, Jayemanne played on the supposed contradiction of his Sri Lankan-Malaysian heritage against his teenage years in the wealthy suburb of Malvern in Melbourne, his private schooling, and his obsession with hip hop and black American culture. Jayemanne’s strategy is to gently confound his audiences, leading them slowly up a blind alley. He builds up a picture of how to identify Sri Lankan parents, supposedly Sri Lankan qualities such as an exceptional ability at maths, and Sri Lankan employment ambitions which he argues he fulfilled in becoming an accountant. He then undercuts his story by saying he has recently realised that his suburban background, his numerical abilities, his love of black music, and his rejection of accountancy in favour of comedy, in fact prove conclusively that he has, all along, been white. He also confesses that this is a bruising disappointment. Jayemanne exposes the emptiness of the conceits of white, brown, and black and of invented identity markers and plays on his audiences’ preconceptions through an old storyteller’s device, the shaggy dog story. The different constituencies in his audiences enjoy his trick equally, from quite different perspectives.Diana Nguyen, a second generation Vietnamese stand-up, was both traumatised and politicised by Pauline Hanson when she was a teenager. Hanson described Nguyen’s community in Dandenong as “yellow Asian people” (Filmer). Nguyen’s career as a community development worker combating racism relates directly to her activity as a stand-up: migrant stories are integral to Australian history and Nguyen hypothesises that the “Australian psyche of being invaded or taken over” has reignited over the question of Islamic fundamentalism and expresses her concern to Filmer about the Muslim youths under her care.Nguyen’s alarm about the elision of Islamic radicalism with Muslim culture drives an agenda that has led the new generation of self-identified Muslim stand-ups since 9/11. This post 9/11 world is described by Wajahat as gorged with “exaggerated fear, hatred, and hostility toward Islam and Muslim [. . . ] and perpetuated by negative discrimination and the marginalisation and exclusion of Muslims from social, political, and civic life in western societies.” In Australia, Aamer Rahman, Muhamed Elleissi, Khaled Khalafalla, and Nazeem Hussain typify this newer, more assertive form of second generation immigrant stand-up—they identify as Muslim (whether religious or not), as brown, and as Australian. They might be said to symbolise a logical response to Ghassan Hage’s famous White Nation (1998), which argues that a white supremacism underlies the mindset of the white elite in Australia. Their positioning is more nuanced than previous generations of stand-up. Nazeem Hussain’s routines mark a transformation in Australian stand-up, as Waleed Aly has argued: “ethnic comedy” has hitherto been about the parading of stereotypes for comfortable, mainstream consumption, about “minstrel characters” [. . .] but Hussain interrogates his audiences in every direction—and aggravates Muslims too. Hussain’s is the world of post 9/11 Australian Muslims. It’s about more than ethnic stereotyping. It’s about being a consistent target of political opportunism, where everyone from the Prime Minister to the Foreign Minister to an otherwise washed-up backbencher with a view on burqas has you in their sights, where bombs detonate in Western capitals and unrelated nations are invaded.Understandably, a prevalent theme among the new wave of Muslim comics, and not just in Australia, is the focus on the reading of Muslims as manifestly linked with Islamic State (IS). Jokes about mistaken identity, plane crashes, suicide bombing, and the Koran feature prominently. English-Pakistani Muslim, Shazia Mirza, gained comedy notoriety in the UK in the wake of 9/11 by introducing her routine with the words: “My name’s Shazia Mirza. At least that’s what it says on my pilot’s licence” (Bedell). Stand-ups Negin Farsad, Ahmed Ahmed, and Dean Obeidalla are all also activists challenging prevailing myths about Islam, skin colour and terrorism in America. Egyptian-American Ahmed Ahmed acquired prominence for telling audiences in the infamous Axis of Evil Comedy Tour about how his life had changed much for the worse since 9/11. Ahmed Ahmed was the alias used by one of Osama Bin Laden’s devotees and his life became on ongoing struggle with anti-terrorism officials doing security checks (he was once incarcerated) and with the FBI who were certain that the comedian was among their most wanted terrorists. Similarly, Obeidalla, an Italian-Palestinian-Muslim, notes in his TEDx talk that “If you have a Muslim name, you are probably immune to identity theft.” His narration of a very sudden experience of becoming an object of persecution and of others’ paranoia is symptomatic of a shared understanding of a post 9/11 world among many Muslim comics: “On September 10th 2001 I went to bed as a white American and I woke up an Arab,” says Obeidalla, still dazed from the seismic shift in his life.Hussain and Khalafalla demonstrate a new sophistication and directness in their stand-up, and tackle their majority white audiences head-on. There is no hint of the apologetic or deferential stance performed by Anh Do. Many of the jokes in their routines target controversial or taboo issues, which up until recently were shunned in Australian political debate, or are absent or misrepresented in mainstream media. An Egyptian-Australian born in Saudi Arabia, Khaled Khalafalla arrived on the comedy scene in 2011, was runner-up in RAW, Australia’s most prestigious open mic competition, and in 2013 won the best of the Melbourne International Comedy Festival for Devious. Khalafalla’s shows focus on racist stereotypes and identity and he uses a range of Middle Eastern and Indian accents to broach IS recruitment, Muslim cousin marriages, and plane crashes. His 2016 MICF show, Jerk, was a confident and abrasive routine exploring relationships, drug use, the extreme racism of Reclaim Australia rallies, controversial visa checks by Border Force’s Operation Fortitude, and Islamophobia. Within the first minute of his routine, he criticises white people in the audience for their woeful refusal to master Middle Eastern names, calling out to the “brown woman” in the audience for support, before lining up a series of jokes about the (mis)pronunciation of his name. Khalafalla derives his power on stage by what Oliver Double calls “uncovering.” Double contends that “one of the most subversive things stand-up can do is to uncover the unmentionable,” subjects which are difficult or impossible to discuss in everyday conversation or the broadcast media (292). For instance, in Jerk Khalafalla discusses the “whole hating halal movement” in Australia as a metaphor for exposing brutal prejudice: Let me break it down for you. Halal is not voodoo. It’s just a blessing that Muslims do for some things, food amongst other things. But, it’s also a magical spell that turns some people into fuckwits when they see it. Sometimes people think it’s a thing that can get stuck to your t-shirt . . . like ‘Oh fuck, I got halal on me’ [Australian accent]. I saw a guy the other day and he was like Fuck halal, it funds terrorism. And I was like, let me show you the true meaning of Islam. I took a lamb chop out of my pocket and threw it in his face. And, he was like Ah, what was that? A lamb chop. Oh, I fucking love lamb chops. And, I say you fool, it’s halal and he burst into flames.In effect, Khalafalla delivers a contemptuous attack on the white members of his audience, but at the same time his joke relies on those same audience members presuming that they are morally and intellectually superior to the individual who is the butt of the joke. Khalafalla’s considerable charm is a help in this tricky send-up. In 2015 the Australian Department of Defence recognised his symbolic power and invited him to join the Afghanistan Task Force to entertain the troops by providing what Doran describes as “home-grown Australian laughs” (7). On stage in Australia, Khalafalla constructs a persona which is an outsider to the dominant majority and challenges the persecution of Muslim communities. Ironically, on the NATO base, Khalafalla’s act was perceived as representing a diverse but united Australia. McCallum has pointed to such contradictions, moments where white Australia has shown itself to be a “culture which at first authenticates emigrant experience and later abrogates it in times of defiant nationalism” (207). Nazeem Hussain, born in Australia to Sri Lankan parents, is even more confrontational. His stand-up is born of his belief that “comedy protects us from the world around us” and is “an evolutionary defence mechanism” (8–9). His ground-breaking comedy career is embedded in his work as an anti-racism activist and asylum seeker supporter and shaped by his second-generation migrant experiences, law studies, community youth work, and early mentorship by American Muslim comic trio Allah Made Me Funny. He is well-known for his pioneering television successes Legally Brown and Salam Café. In his stand-up, Hussain often dwells witheringly on the failings and peculiarities of white people’s attempts to interact with him. Like all his routines, his sell-out show Fear of the Brown Planet, performed with Aamer Rahman from 2004–2008, explored casual, pathologised racism. Hussain deliberately over-uses the term “white people” in his routines as a provocation and deploys a reverse racism against his majority white audiences, knowing that many will be squirming. “White people ask me how can Muslims have fun if they don’t drink? Muslims have fun! Of course we have fun! You’ve seen us on the news.” For Hussain stand-up is “fundamentally an art of protest,” to be used as “a tool by communities and people with ideas that challenge and provoke the status quo with a spirit of counterculture” (Low 1–3). His larger project is to humanise Muslims to white Australians so that “they see us firstly as human beings” (1–3). Hussain’s 2016 MICF show, Hussain in the Membrane, both satirised media hype and hysterical racism and pushed for a better understanding of the complex problems Muslim communities face in Australia. His show also connected issues to older colonial traditions of racism. In a memorable and beautifully crafted tirade, Hussain inveighed against the 2015 Bendigo riots which occurred after local Muslims lodged an application to Bendigo council to build a mosque in the sleepy Victorian town. [YELLING in an exaggerated Australian accent] No we don’t want Muslims! NO we don’t want Muslims—to come invade Bendigo by application to the local council! That is the most bureaucratic invasion of all times. No place in history has been invaded by lodging an application to a local council. Can you see ISIS running around chasing town planners? Of course not, Muslims like to wait 6–8 months to invade! That’s a polite way to invade. What if white people invaded that way? What a better world we’d be living in. If white people invaded Australia that way, we’d be able to celebrate Australia Day on the same day without so much blood on our hands. What if Captain Cook came to Australia and said [in a British accent] Awe we would like to apply to invade this great land and here is our application. [In an Australian accent] Awe sorry, mate, rejected, but we’ll give you Bendigo.As Waleed Aly sees it, the Australian cultural majority is still “unused to hearing minorities speak with such assertiveness.” Hussain exposes “a binary world where there’s whiteness, and then otherness. Where white people are individuals and non-white people (a singular group) are not” (Aly). Hussain certainly speaks as an insider and goes so far as recognising his coloniser’s guilt in relation to indigenous Australians (Tan). Aly well remembers the hate mail he and Hussain received when they worked on Salam Café: “The message was clear. We were outsiders and should behave as such. We were not real Australians. We should know our place, as supplicants, celebrating the nation’s unblemished virtue.” Khalafalla, Rahman, Elleissi, and Hussain make clear that the new wave of comics identify as Muslim and Australian (which they would argue many in the audiences receive as a provocation). They have zero tolerance of racism, their comedy is intimately connected with their political activism, and they have an unapologetically Australian identity. No longer is it a question of whether the white cultural majority in Australia will anoint them as worthy and acceptable citizens, it is a question of whether the audiences can rise to the moral standards of the stand-ups. The power has been switched. For Hussain laughter is about connection: “that person laughs because they appreciate the point and whether or not they accept what was said was valid isn’t important. What matters is, they’ve understood” (Low 5). ReferencesAhmed, Ahmed. “When It Comes to Laughter, We Are All Alike.” TedXDoha (2010). 16 June 2016 <http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/TEDxDoha-Ahmed-Ahmed-When-it-Co>.Aly, Waleed. “Comment.” Sydney Morning Herald 24 Sep. 2013."Anh Do". Talking Heads with Peter Thompson. ABC1. 4 Oct. 2010. Radio.Bedell, Geraldine. “Veiled Humour.” The Guardian (2003). 8 Aug. 2016 <https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2003/apr/20/comedy.artsfeatures?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other>.Berger, Rachel. LinkedIn [Profile page]. 14 June 2016 <http://www.linkedin.com/company/rachel-berger>.Do, Anh. The Happiest Refugee. Sydney: Allen and Unwin, 2010. Doran, Mark. "Service with a Smile: Entertainers Give Troops a Taste of Home.” Air Force 57.21 (2015). 12 June 2016 <http://www.defence.gov.au/Publications/NewsPapers/Raaf/editions/5721/5721.pdf>.Double, Oliver. Getting the Joke: The Inner Workings of Stand-Up Comedy. 2nd ed. London: Bloomsbury, 2014.Filmer, Natalie. "For Dandenong Comedian and Actress Diana Nguyen The Colour Yellow has a Strong Meaning.” The Herald Sun 3 Sep. 2013.Hage, Ghassan. White Nation: Fantasies of a White Supremacy in a Multicultural Age. Sydney: Pluto Press, 1998.Hussain, Nazeem. Hussain in the Membrane. Melbourne International Comedy Festival, 2016.———. "The Funny Side of 30.” Spectrum. The Age 12 Mar. 2016.Khalafalla, Khaled. Jerk. Melbourne International Comedy Festival, 2016.Low, Lian. "Fear of a Brown Planet: Fight the Power with Laughter.” Peril: Asian Australian Arts and Culture (2011). 12 June 2016 <http://peril.com.au/back-editions/edition10/fear-of-a-brown-planet-fight-the-power-with-laughter>. McCallum, John. "Cringe and Strut: Comedy and National Identity in Post-War Australia.” Because I Tell a Joke or Two: Comedy, Politics and Social Difference. Ed. Stephen Wagg. New York: Routledge, 1998. Morreall, John. Comic Relief. Oxford: Wiley-Blackwell, 2009.Neill, Rosemary. "Laughing through Adversity.” The Australian 28 Aug. 2010.Obeidalla, Dean. "Using Stand-Up to Counter Islamophobia.” TedXEast (2012). 16 June 2016 <http://tedxtalks.ted.com/video/TEDxEast-Dean-Obeidalla-Using-S;TEDxEast>.Palmer, Jerry. Taking Humour Seriously. London: Routledge, 1994. Szubanski, Magda. Reckoning. Melbourne: Text Publishing, 2015. Tan, Monica. "Aussie, Aussie, Aussie! Allahu Akbar! Nazeem Hussain's Bogan-Muslim Army.” The Guardian 29 Feb. 2016. "Uncle Sam.” Salam Café (2008). 11 June 2016 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeQPAJt6caU>.Wajahat, Ali, et al. "Fear Inc.: The Roots of the Islamophobia Network in America.” Center for American Progress (2011). 11 June 2016 <https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/religion/report/2011/08/26/10165/fear-inc>.
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Barnes, Duncan, Danielle Fusco, and Lelia Green. "Developing a Taste for Coffee: Bangladesh, Nescafé, and Australian Student Photographers." M/C Journal 15, no. 2 (May 2, 2012). http://dx.doi.org/10.5204/mcj.471.

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Abstract:
IntroductionThis article is about the transformation of coffee, from having no place in the everyday lives of the people of Bangladesh, to a new position as a harbinger of liberal values and Western culture. The context is a group of Australian photojournalism students who embarked on a month-long residency in Bangladesh; the content is a Nescafé advertisement encouraging the young, middle-class Bangladesh audience to consume coffee, in a marketing campaign that promotes “my first cup.” For the Australian students, the marketing positioning of this advertising campaign transformed instant coffee into a strange and unfamiliar commodity. At the same time, the historic association between Bangladesh and tea prompted one of the photographers to undertake her own journey to explore the hidden side of that other Western staple. This paper explores the tradition of tea culture in Bangladesh and the marketing campaign for instant coffee within this culture, combining the authors’ experiences and perspectives. The outline of the Photomedia unit in the Bachelor of Creative Industries degree that the students were working towards at Edith Cowan University (ECU) in Australia states that:students will engage with practices, issues and practicalities of working as a photojournalist in an international, cross cultural context. Students will work in collaboration with students of Pathshala: South Asian Institute of Photography, Dhaka Bangladesh in the research, production and presentation of stories related to Bangladeshi society and culture for distribution to international audiences (ECU). The sixteen students from Perth, living and working in Bangladesh between 5 January and 7 February 2012, exhibited a diverse range of cultures, contexts, and motivations. Young Australians, along with a number of ECU’s international students, including some from Norway, China and Sweden, were required to learn first-hand about life in Bangladesh, one of the world’s poorest and most densely populated countries. Danielle Fusco and ECU lecturer Duncan Barnes collaborated with staff and students of Pathshala, South Asian Media Institute (Pathshala). Their recollections and observations on tea production and the location are central to this article but it is the questions asked by the group about the marketing of instant coffee into this culture that provides its tensions. Fusco completed a week-long induction and then travelled in Bangladesh for a fortnight to research and photograph individual stories on rural and urban life. Barnes here sets the scene for the project, describing the expectations and what actually happened: When we travel to countries that are vastly different to our own it is often to seek out that difference; to go in search of the romanticised ideals that have been portrayed as paradise in films, books and photographs. “The West” has long been fascinated with “The East” (Said) and for the past half century, since the hippie treks to Marrakesh and Afghanistan, people have journeyed overland to the Indian sub-continent, both from Europe and from Australia, yearning for a cultural experience they cannot find at home. Living in Perth, Western Australia, sometimes called the most isolated capital city in the world, that pull to something “different” is like a magnet. Upon arrival in Dhaka, you find yourself deliciously overwhelmed by the heavy traffic, the crowded markets, the spicy foods and the milky lassie drinks. It only takes a few stomach upsets to make your Western appetite start kicking in and you begin craving things you have at home but that are hard to find in Bangladesh. Take coffee for example. I recently completed a month-long visit to Bangladesh, which, like India, is a nation of tea drinkers. Getting any kind of good coffee requires that you be in what expatriates call “the Golden Triangle” of Dhaka city—within the area contained by Gulshan-Banani-Baridhara. Here you find the embassies and a sizeable expatriate community that constitutes a Western bubble unrepresentative of Bangladesh beyond these districts. Coffee World is an example of a Western-style café chain that, as the name suggests, serves coffee beverages. It has trouble making a quality flat white. The baristas are poorly trained, the service is painfully slow, yet the prices are comparable to those in the West. Even with these disadvantages, it is frequented by Westerners who also make use of the free WiFi. In contrast, tea is available at every road junction for around 5 cents Australian. It’s ready in seconds: the kettle is always hot due to a constant turnover of local customers. It was the history of tea growing in Bangladesh, and a desire to know more about a commodity that people in the West take for granted, that most attracted Fusco’s interest. She chose to focus on Bangladesh’s oldest commercial tea garden (plantation) Sylhet, which has been in production since 1857 (Tea Board). As is the case with many tea farms in the Indian sub-continent, the workers at Sylhet are part of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Fusco left Dhaka and travelled into the rural areas to investigate tea production: Venturing into these estates from the city is like entering an entirely different world. They are isolated places, and although they are close in distance, they are completely separate from the main city. Spending time in the Khadim tea estate amongst the plantations and the workers’ compounds made me very aware of the strong relationship that exists between them. The Hindu teaching of Samsara refers to the continuous cycle of repeated birth, life, death and rebirth [Hinduism], which became a metaphor for me, for this relationship I was experiencing. It is clear that neither farm [where the tea is grown] nor village [which houses the people] could live without each other. The success and maintenance of the tea farm relies on the workers just as much as the workers rely on the tea gardens for their livelihood and sustenance. Their life cycles are intertwined and in synch. There are many problems in the compounds. The people are extremely poor. Their education opportunities are limited, and they work incredibly hard for very little money for their entire lives. They are bound to stay and work here and as those generations before them, were born, worked and died here, living their whole lives in the community of the tea farm. By documenting the lives of the people, I realised I was documenting the process of the lives of the tea trees at the same time. This is how I met Lolita.Figure 1. Bangladeshi tea worker, Lolita, stands in a small section of the Khadim tea plantation in the early morning. Sylhet, Bangladesh (Danielle Fusco, Jan. 2012). This woman emulated everything I was seeing and feeling about the village and the garden. She spoke about the reliance on the trees, especially because of the money and, therefore, the food, they provide for her and her husband. I became aware of the injustice of this system because the workers are paid so little while this industry is booming. It was obvious that life here is far from perfect, but as Lolita explains, they make do. She has worked on the tea estate for decades. As her husband is no longer working, she is the primary income earner. They are able, however, to live in relative comfort now their children have all married and left and it is just the two of them. Lolita describes that money lies within these trees. Money for her means that she can eat that day. Money for the managers means industrial success. Either way, whether it is in the eyes of the individual or the industry, tea always comes down to Taka [the currency of Bangladesh]. Marketing Coffee in a Culture of Tea and Betel Nut With such a strong culture of tea production and consumption and a coffee culture just existing on the fringe, a campaign by Nescafé to encourage Bangladeshi consumers to have “my first cup” of Nescafé instant coffee at the time of this study captured the imagination of the students. How effective can the marketing of Nescafé instant coffee be in a society that is historically a producer and consumer of tea, and which also still embraces the generations-old use of the betel nut as an everyday stimulant? Although it only employs some 150,000 (Islam et al.) in a nation of 150 million people, tea makes an important contribution to the Bangladesh economy. Shortly after the 1971 civil war, in which East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) became independent from West Pakistan (now Pakistan), the then-Chairman of the Bangladesh Tea Board, writing in World Development, commented:In the highly competitive marketing environment of today it is extremely necessary for the tea industry of Bangladesh to increase production by raising the per acre yield, improve quality by adoption of finer plucking standards and modernization of factories and reduce per unit cost of production so as to be able to sell more of our teas to foreign markets and thereby earn higher amounts of much needed foreign exchange for the country as well as generate additional resources within the industry for ploughing back for further development (Ali 55). In Bangladesh, tea is a cash crop that, even in the 1970s following vicious conflicts, is more than capable of meeting local demand and producing an export dividend. Coffee is imported commodity that, historically, has had little place in Bangladeshi life or culture. However important tea is, it is not the traditional Bangladesh stimulant. Instead, over the years, when people in the West would have had a cup of tea or coffee and/or a cigarette, most Bangladeshis have turned to the betel nut. A 2005 study of 100 citizens from Araihazar, Bangladesh, conducted by researchers from Columbia University, found that coffee consumption is “very low in this population” (Hafeman et al. 567). The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of betel quids (the wad of masticated nut) and the chewing of betel nuts, upon tremor. For this reason, it was important to record the consumption of stimulants in the 98 participants who progressed to the next stage of the study and took a freehand spiral-drawing test. While “26 (27%) participants had chewed betel quids, 23 (23%) had smoked one or more cigarettes, [and] 14 (14%) drank tea; on that day, only 1 (1%) drank caffeinated soda, and none (0%) drank coffee” (Hafeman et al. 568). Given its addictive and carcinogenic properties (Sharma), the people who chewed betel quids were more likely to exhibit tremor in their spiral drawings than the people who did not. As this (albeit small) study suggests, the preferred Bangladeshi stimulant is more likely to be betel or tobacco rather than a beverage. Insofar as hot drinks are consumed, Bangladesh citizens drink tea. This poses a significant challenge for multinational advertisers who seek to promote the consumption of instant coffee as a means of growing the global market for Nescafé. Marketing Nescafé to Bangladesh In Dhaka, in January 2012, the television campaign slogan for Nescafé is “My first cup”, with the tagline, “Time you started.” This Nescafé television commercial (NTC) impressed itself upon the Australian visitors, both in terms of its frequency of broadcast and in its referencing of Western culture and values. (The advertisement can be viewed at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2E8mFX43oAM). The NTC’s three stars, Vir Das, Purab Kohli, and leading Bollywood actress Deepika Padukone, are highly-recognisable to young Bangladeshi audiences and the storyline is part of a developing series of advertisements which together form a mini-soap opera, like that used so successfully to advertise the Nescafé Gold Blend brand of instant coffee in the West in the 1980s to 1990s (O’Donohoe 242; Beale). The action takes place in Kohli’s affluent, Western-style apartment. The drama starts with Das challenging Kohli regarding whether he has successfully developed a relationship with his attractive neighbour, Padukone. Using a combination of local language with English words and sub-titles, the first sequence is captioned: “Any progress with Deepika, or are you still mixing coffee?” Suggesting incredulity, and that he could do better, Das asks Kohli, according to the next subtitle, “What are you doing dude?” The use of the word “dude” clearly refers to American youth culture, familiar in such movies as Dude, where’s my car? This is underlined by the immediate transition to the English words of “bikes … biceps … chest … explosion.” Of these four words only “chest” is pronounced in the local tongue, although all four words are included as captions in English. Kohli appears less and less impressed as Das becomes increasingly insistent, with Das going on to express frustration with Kohli through the exclamation “u don’t even have a plan.” The use of the text-speak English “u” here can be constructed as another way of persuading young Bangladeshi viewers that this advertisement is directed at them: the “u” in place of “you” is likely to annoy their English-speaking elders. Das continues speaking in his mother tongue, with the subtitle “Deepika padukone [sic] is your neighbour and you are only drinking coffee,” with the subsequent subtitle emphasising: “Deepika and only coffee.” At this point, Padukone enters the apartment through the open door without knocking and confidently says “Hi.” Kohli explains the situation by responding (in English, and subtitled) “my school friend, Das”. Padukone, in turn, responds in a friendly way to both men (in English, and subtitled) “You guys want to have coffee?” Instead of responding directly to this invitation, Das models to Kohli what it is to take the initiative in this situation: what it is to have a plan. “Hello” (he says, in English and subtitled) “I don’t have coffee but I have a plan. You and me, my bike, right now, hit the town, party!” Kohli looks down at the floor, embarrassed, while Padukone looks quizzically at him over Das’s shoulder. Kohli smiles, and points to himself and Padukone, clearly excluding Das: “I will have coffee” (in English, and subtitle). “Better plan”, exclaims Padukone, “You and me, my place, right now, coffee.” She looks challengingly at Das: “Right?,” a statement rather than a request, and exits, with Kohli following and Das left behind in the apartment. Cue voice-over (not a subtitle, but in-screen speech bubble) “[It’s] time you started” (spoken) “the new Nescafé” (shot change) “My first cup” (with an in-screen price promotion). This commercial associates coffee drinking with Western values of social and personal autonomy. For young women in the traditional Muslim culture of Bangladesh, it suggests a world in which they are at liberty to spend time with the suitors they choose, ignoring those whom they find pushy or inappropriate, and free to invite a man back to “my place, right now” for coffee. The scene setting in this advertisement and the use of English in both the spoken and written text suggests its target is the educated middle class, and indicates that sophisticated, affluent, trend-setters drink coffee as a part of getting to know their neighbours. In line with this, the still which ends the commercial promotes the Facebook page “Know your neighbours.” The flirtatious nature of the actors in the advertisement, the emphasis on each of the male characters spending time alone with the female character, and the female character having both power and choice in this situation is likely to be highly unacceptable to traditional Bangladeshi parental values and, therefore, proportionately more exciting to the target audience. The underlying suggestion of “my first cup” and “time you started” is that the social consumption of that first cup of coffee is the “first step” to becoming more Western. The statement also has overtones of sexual initiation. The advertisement aligns itself with the world portrayed in the Western media consumed in Bangladesh, and the implication is that—even if Western liberal values are not currently a possible choice for all—it is at least feasible to start on the journey towards these values through drinking that first cup of coffee. Unbeknownst to the Bangladesh audience, this Nescafé marketing strategy echoes, in almost all material particulars, the same approach that was so successful in persuading Australians to embrace instant coffee. Khamis, in her essay on Australia and the convenience of instant coffee, argues that, while in 1928 Australia had the highest per capita consumption of tea in the world, this had begun to change by the 1950s. The transformation in the market positioning of coffee was partly achieved through an association between tea and old-fashioned ‘Britishness’ and coffee and the United States: this discovery [of coffee] spoke to changes in Australia’s lifestyle options: the tea habit was tied to Australia’s development as a far-flung colonial outpost, a daily reminder that many still looked to London as the nation’s cultural capital: the growing appeal of instant coffee reflected a widening and more nuanced cultural palate. This was not just ‘another’ example of the United States postwar juggernaut; it marks the transitional phase in Australia’s history, as its cultural identity was informed less by the staid conservativism of Britain than the heady flux of New World glamour (219). Coffee was associated with the USA not simply through advertising but also through cultural exposure. By 1943, notes Khamis, there were 120,000 American service personnel stationed in Australia and she quotes Symons (168) as saying that “when an American got on a friendly footing with an Australian family he was usually found in the kitchen, teaching the Mrs how to make coffee, or washing the dishes” (168, cited in Khamis 220). The chances were that “the Mrs”—the Australian housewife—felt she needed the tuition: an Australian survey conducted by Gallup in March 1950 indicated that 55 per cent of respondents at that time had never tried coffee, while a further 24 per cent said they “seldom” consumed it (Walker and Roberts 133, cited in Khamis 222). In a newspaper article titled, “Overpaid, Oversexed and Over Here”, Munro describes the impact of exposure to the first American troops based in Australia during this time, with a then seven year old recalling: “They were foreign, quite a different culture from us. They spoke more loudly than us. They had strange accents, cute expressions, they were really very exotic.” The American troops caused consternation for Australian fathers and boyfriends. Dulcie Wood was 18 when she was dating an American serviceman: They had more money to spend (than Australian troops). They seemed to have plenty of supplies, they were always bringing you presents—stockings and cartons of cigarettes […] Their uniforms were better. They took you to more places. They were quite good dancers, some of them. They always brought you flowers. They were more polite to women. They charmed the mums because they were very polite. Some dads were a bit more sceptical of them. They weren’t sure if all that charm was genuine (quoted in Munro). Darian-Smith argues that, at that time, Australian understanding of Americans was based on Hollywood films, which led to an impression of American technological superiority and cultural sophistication (215-16, 232). “Against the American-style combination of smart advertising, consumerism, self-expression and popular democracy, the British class system and its buttoned-up royals appeared dull and dour” writes Khamis (226, citing Grant 15)—almost as dull and dour as 1950s tea compared with the postwar sophistication of Nescafé instant coffee. Conclusion The approach Nestlé is using in Bangladesh to market instant coffee is tried and tested: coffee is associated with the new, radical cultural influence while tea and other traditional stimulants are relegated to the choice of an older, more staid generation. Younger consumers are targeted with a romantic story about the love of coffee, reflected in a mini-soap opera about two people becoming a couple over a cup of Nescafé. Hopefully, the Pathshala-Edith Cowan University collaboration is at least as strong. Some of the overseas visitors return to Bangladesh on a regular basis—the student presentations in 2012 were, for instance, attended by two visiting graduates from the 2008 program who were working in Bangladesh. For the Australian participants, the association with Pathshala, South Asian Media Institute, and Drik Photo Agency brings recognition, credibility and opportunity. It also offers a totally new perspective on what to order in the coffee queue once they are home again in Australia. Postscript The final week of the residency in Bangladesh was taken up with presentations and a public exhibition of the students’ work at Drik Picture Agency, Dhaka, 3–7 February 2012. Danielle Fusco’s photographs can be accessed at: http://public-files.apps.ecu.edu.au/SCA_Marketing/coffee/coffee.html References Ali, M. “Commodity Round-up: Problems and Prospects of Bangladesh Tea”, World Development 1.1–2 (1973): 55. Beale, Claire. “Should the Gold Blend Couple Get Back Together?” The Independent 29 Apr 2010. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/advertising/should-the-gold-blend-couple-get-back-together-1957196.html›. Darian-Smith, Kate. On the Home Front: Melbourne in Wartime 1939-1945. 2nd ed. Melbourne: Melbourne UP, 2009. Dude, Where’s My Car? Dir. Danny Leiner. Twentieth Century Fox, 2000. Edith Cowan University (ECU). “Photomedia Summer School Bangladesh 2012.” 1 May 2012 .Grant, Bruce. The Australian Dilemma: A New Kind of Western Society. Sydney: Macdonald Futura, 1983. Hafeman, D., H. Ashan, T. Islam, and E. Louis. “Betel-quid: Its Tremor-producing Effects in Residents of Araihazar, Bangladesh.” Movement Disorders 21.4 (2006): 567-71. Hinduism. “Reincarnation and Samsara.” Heart of Hinduism. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://hinduism.iskcon.org/concepts/102.htm›. Islam, G., M. Iqbal, K. Quddus, and M. Ali. “Present Status and Future Needs of Tea Industry in Bangladesh (Review).” Proceedings of the Pakistan Academy of Science. 42.4 (2005): 305-14. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.paspk.org/downloads/proc42-4/42-4-p305-314.pdf›. Khamis, Susie. “It Only Takes a Jiffy to Make: Nestlé, Australia and the Convenience of Instant Coffee.” Food, Culture & Society 12.2 (2009): 217-33. Munro, Ian. “Overpaid, Oversexed and Over Here.” The Age 27 Feb. 2002. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2002/02/26/1014704950716.html›. O’Donohoe, Stephanie. “Raiding the Postmodern Pantry: Advertising Intertextuality and the Young Adult Audience.” European Journal of Marketing 31.3/4 (1997): 234-53 Pathshala. Pathshala, South Asian Media Academy. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.pathshala.net/controller.php›. Said, Edward. Orientalism. New York: Pantheon Books, 1978. Sharma, Dinesh. “Betel Quid and Areca Nut are Carcinogenic without Tobacco.” The Lancet Oncology 4.10 (2003): 587. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.lancet.com/journals/lanonc/article/PIIS1470-2045(03)01229-4/fulltext›. Symons, Michael. One Continuous Picnic: A History of Eating in Australia. Ringwood, Vic: Penguin, 1984. Tea Board. “History of Bangladesh Tea Industry.” Bangladesh Tea Board. 8 Apr. 2012 ‹http://www.teaboard.gov.bd/index.php?option=HistoryTeaIndustry›. Walker, Robin and Dave Roberts. From Scarcity to Surfeit: A History of Food and Nutrition in New South Wales. Sydney: NSW UP, 1988.
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