Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Foreign exchange – Econometric models – Australia'
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1
Marshall, Peter John 1960. "Rational versus anchored traders : exchange rate behaviour in macro models." Monash University, Dept. of Economics, 2001. http://arrow.monash.edu.au/hdl/1959.1/9048.
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Forrester, David Edward Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "Market probability density functions and investor risk aversion for the australia-us dollar exchange rate." Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Economics, 2006. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/27199.
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This thesis models the Australian-US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate with particular attention being paid to investor risk aversion. Accounting for investor risk aversion in AUD/USD exchange rate modelling is novel, so too is the method used to measure risk aversion in this thesis. Investor risk aversion is measured using a technique developed in Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004), which makes use of Probability Density Functions (PDFs) extracted from option markets. More conventional approaches use forward-market pricing or Uncovered Interest Parity. Several methods of estimating PDFs from option and spot markets are examined, with the estimations from currency spot-markets representing an original application of an arbitrage technique developed in Stutzer (1996) to the AUD/USD exchange rate. The option and spot-market PDFs are compared using their first four moments and if estimated judiciously, the spot-market PDFs are found to have similar shapes to the option-market PDFs. So in the absence of an AUD/USD exchange rate options market, spot-market PDFs can act as a reasonable substitute for option-market PDFs for the purpose of examining market sentiment. The Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) attached to the AUD/USD, the US Dollar-Japanese Yen, the US Dollar-Swiss Franc and the US-Canadian Dollar exchange rates is measured using the Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique. Amongst these exchange rates, only the AUD/USD exchange rate demonstrates a significant level of investor RRA and only over a weekly forecast horizon. The Bliss and Panigirtzoglou (2004) technique is also used to approximate a time-varying risk premium for the AUD/USD exchange rate. This risk premium is added to the cointegrating vectors of fixed-price and asset monetary models of the AUD/USD exchange rate. An index of Australia???s export commodity prices is also added. The out-of-sample forecasting ability of these cointegrating vectors is tested relative to a random walk using an error-correction framework. While adding the time-varying risk premium improves this forecasting ability, adding export commodity prices does so by more. Further, including both the time-varying risk premium and export commodity prices in the cointegrating vectors reduces their forecasting ability. So the time-varying risk premium is important for AUD/USD exchange rate modelling, but not as important as export commodity prices.
3
Klongkratoke, Pittaya. "Econometric models in foreign exchange market." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2016. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/7333/.
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According to the significance of the econometric models in foreign exchange market, the purpose of this research is to give a closer examination on some important issues in this area. The research covers exchange rate pass-through into import prices, liquidity risk and expected returns in the currency market, and the common risk factors in currency markets. Firstly, with the significant of the exchange rate pass-through in financial economics, the first empirical chapter studies on the degree of exchange rate pass-through into import in emerging economies and developed countries in panel evidences for comparison covering the time period of 1970-2009. The pooled mean group estimation (PMGE) is used for the estimation to investigate the short run coefficients and error variance. In general, the results present that the import prices are affected positively, though incompletely, by the exchange rate. Secondly, the following study addresses the question whether there is a relationship between cross-sectional differences in foreign exchange returns and the sensitivities of the returns to fluctuations in liquidity, known as liquidity beta, by using a unique dataset of weekly order flow. Finally, the last study is in keeping with the study of Lustig, Roussanov and Verdelhan (2011), which shows that the large co-movement among exchange rates of different currencies can explain a risk-based view of exchange rate determination. The exploration on identifying a slope factor in exchange rate changes is brought up. The study initially constructs monthly portfolios of currencies, which are sorted on the basis of their forward discounts. The lowest interest rate currencies are contained in the first portfolio and the highest interest rate currencies are in the last. The results performs that portfolios with higher forward discounts incline to contain higher real interest rates in overall by considering the first portfolio and the last portfolio though the fluctuation occurs.
4
Hillman, Robert J. T. "Econometric modelling of nonlinearity and nonstationarity in the foreign exchange market." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.264846.
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Yuen, Wai-kee, and 袁偉基. "A historical event analysis of the variability in the empirical uncovered interest parity (UIP) coefficient." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 2006. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B36424201.
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李寶昇 and Po-sing Li. "The study of the combination of technical analysis and qualitative model in financial forecasting." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1998. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31269035.
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McDonald, Mark F. J. "An investigation into the dynamics of correlation networks in the foreign exchange market." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.670178.
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8
Hakim, Abdul. "Modelling the interactions across international stock, bond and foreign exchange markets." UWA Business School, 2009. http://theses.library.uwa.edu.au/adt-WU2009.0202.
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[Truncated abstract] Given the theoretical and historical evidence that support the benefit of investing internationally. there is Iittle knowledge available of proper international portfolio construction in terms of how much should be invested in foreign countries, which countries should be targeted, and types of assets to be included in the portfolio. The prospects of these benefits depend on the market volatilities, cross-country correlations, and currency risks to change in the future. Another important issue in international portfolio diversification is the growth of newly emerging markets which have different characteristics from the developed ones. Addressing the issues, the thesis intends to investigate the nature of volatility, conditional correlations, and the impact of currency risks in international portfolio, both in developed and emerging markets. Chapter 2 provides literature review on volatility spillovers, conditional correlations, and forecasting both VaR and conditional correlations using GARCH-type models. Attention is made on the estimated models, type of assets, regions of markets, and tests of forecasts. Chapter 3 investigates the nature of volatility spillovers across intemational assets, which is important in determining the nature of portfolio's volatility when most assets are seems to be connected. ... The impacts of incorporating volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect on the forecast performance of conditional correlation will also be examined in this thesis. The VARMA-AGARCH of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008) and the VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003) will be estimated to accommodate volatility spillovers and asymmetric effect. The CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) will also be estimated as benchmark as the model does not incorporate both volatility spillovers and asymmetric effects. Given the information about the nature of conditional correlations resulted from the forecasts using a rolling window technique, Section 2 of Chapter 4 investigates the nature of conditional correlations by estimating two multivariate GARCH models allowing for time-varying conditional correlations, namely the DCC model of Engle (2002) and the GARCC model of McAleer et al. (2008). Chapter 5 conducts VaR forecast considering the important role of VaR as a standard tool for risk management. Especially, the chapter investigates whether volatility spillovers and time-varying conditional correlations discussed in the previous two chapters are of helps in providing better VaR forecasts. The BEKK model of Engle and Kroner (1995) and the DCC model of Engle (2002) will be estimated to incorporate volatility spillovers and conditional correlations, respectively. The DVEC model of Bollerslev et al. (1998) and the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990) will be estimated to serve benchmarks, as both models do not incorporate both volatility spillovers and timevarying conditional correlations. Chapter 6 concludes the thesis and lists somc possible future research.
9
Tsu, Maria E. "Dynamic analysis of an open economy and foreign exchange risk management using path-dependent options." Thesis, This resource online, 1994. http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/available/etd-06112009-063829/.
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Mnjama, Gladys Susan. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Kenya." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002709.
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In 1993, Kenya liberalised its trade policy and allowed the Kenyan Shillings to freely float. This openness has left Kenya's domestic prices vulnerable to the effects of exchange rate fluctuations. One of the objectives of the Central Bank of Kenya is to maintain inflation levels at sustainable levels. Thus it has become necessary to determine the influence that exchange rate changes have on domestic prices given that one of the major determinants of inflation is exchange rate movements. For this reason, this thesis examines the magnitude and speed of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in Kenya. In addition, it takes into account the direction and size of changes in the exchange rates to determine whether the exchange rate fluctuations are symmetric or asymmetric. The thesis uses quarterly data ranging from 1993:Ql - 2008:Q4 as it takes into account the period when the process of liberalization occurred. The empirical estimation was done in two stages. The first stage was estimated using the Johansen (1991) and (1995) co integration techniques and a vector error correction model (VECM). The second stage entailed estimating the impulse response and variance decomposition functions as well as conducting block exogeneity Wald tests. In determining the asymmetric aspect of the analysis, the study followed Pollard and Coughlin (2004) and Webber (2000) frameworks in analysing asymmetry with respect to appreciation and depreciation and large and small changes in the exchange rate to import prices. The results obtained showed that ERPT to Kenya is incomplete but relatively low at about 36 percent in the long run. In terms of asymmetry, the results showed that ERPT is found to be higher in periods of appreciation than depreciation. This is in support of market share and binding quantity constraints theory. In relation to size changes, the results show that size changes have no significant impact on ERPT in Kenya.
11
Walker, Sébastien. "Essays in development macroeconomics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.712398.
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Senzangakhona, Phakama. "The impact of oil price volatility on unemployment: a case study of South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/1697.
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This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.
13
Malek, Mansour Jeoffrey H. G. "Three essays in international economics." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/210878.
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This thesis consists in a collection of research works dealing with various aspects of International Economics. More precisely, we focus on three main themes: (i) the existence of a world business cycle and the implications thereof, (ii) the likelihood of asymmetric shocks in the Euro Zone resulting from fluctuations in the euro exchange rate because of differences in sector specialization patterns and some consequences of such shocks, and (iii) the relationship between trade openness and growth influence of the sector specialization structure on that relationship.Regarding the approach pursued to tackle these problems, we have chosen to strictly remain within the boundaries of empirical (macro)economics - that is, applied econometrics. Though we systematically provide theoretical models to back up our empirical approach, our only real concern is to look at the stories the data can (or cannot) tell us. As to the econometric methodology, we will restrict ourselves to the use of panel data analysis. The large spectrum of techniques available within the panel framework allows us to utilize, for each of the problems at hand, the most suitable approach (or what we think it is).
Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
14
Ajagbe, Stephen Mayowa. "An analysis of the long run comovements between financial system development and mining production in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002689.
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This study examines the nature of the relationship which exists between mining sector production and development of the financial systems in South Africa. This is particularly important in that the mining sector is considered to be one of the major contributors to the country’s overall economic growth. South Africa is also considered to have a very well developed financial system, to the point where the dominance of one over the other is difficult to identify. Therefore offering insight into the nature of this relationship will assist policy makers in identifying the most effective policies in order to ensure that the developments within the financial systems impact appropriately on the mining sector, and ultimately on the economy. In addition to using the conventional proxies of financial system development, this study utilises the principal component analysis (PCA) to construct an index for the entire financial system. The multivariate cointegration approach as proposed by Johansen (1988) and Johansen and Juselius (1990) was then used to estimate the relationship between the development of the financial systems and the mining sector production for the period 1988-2008. The study reveals mixed results for different measures of financial system development. Those involving the banking system show that a negative relationship exists between total mining production and total credit extended to the private sector, while liquid liabilities has a positive relationship. Similarly, with the stock market system, mixed results are also obtained which reveal a negative relationship between total mining production and stock market capitalisation, while a positive relationship is found with secondary market turnover. Of all the financial system variables, only that of stock market capitalisation was found to be significant. The result with the financial development index reveals that a significant negative relationship exists between financial system development and total mining sector production. Results on the other variables controlled in the estimation show that positive and significant relationships exist between total mining production and both nominal exchange rate and political stability respectively. Increased mining production therefore takes place in periods of appreciating exchange rates, and similarly in the post-apartheid era. On the other hand, negative relationships were found for both trade openness and inflation control variables. The impulse response and variance decomposition analyses showed that total mining production explains the largest amount of shocks within itself. Overall, the study reveals that the mining sector might not have benefited much from the development in the South African financial system.
15
"Exchange rate regime and monetary independence of four newly industrialized economies in East Asia." 2007. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5893305.
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Lam, Lai Fong.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007.
Includes bibliographical references (p. 47-50).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
ABSTRACT --- p.ii
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS --- p.iv
LIST OF TABLES --- p.vi
LIST OF FIGURES --- p.vi
CHAPTER
Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter II --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.6
Chapter III --- THE EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES OF THE FOUR NIES --- p.10
Review of the Exchange Rate Regimes of the Four NIEs
Frankel-Wei Regression
Chapter IV --- METHODOLOGY --- p.19
Measurement of the Monetary Independence
Specification of Model
Chapter V --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.2?
Unit Root Test
The Endogeneity Test
Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model
Chapter VI --- CONCLUSIONS --- p.37
APPENDICES --- p.41
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.47
TABLES --- p.51
FIGURES --- p.59
16
"Cointegration and model selection on foreign exchange markets." 1998. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5889711.
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by Wai-Man Leung.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1998.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 107-112).
Abstract also in Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- Problems of Cointegration Analysis --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- Contributions of this Research --- p.2
Chapter 1.3 --- Applications of this Research --- p.3
Chapter 1.4 --- Organization of this Thesis --- p.3
Chapter 2 --- Foreign Exchange Features --- p.5
Chapter 2.1 --- Spot Exchange Rate Markets --- p.5
Chapter 2.2 --- Development of International Monetary System --- p.6
Chapter 2.3 --- Determinants of Foreign Exchange Rates --- p.7
Chapter 2.4 --- Description of Foreign Exchange Data --- p.9
Chapter 3 --- Literature Overview --- p.17
Chapter 3.1 --- Model Selection --- p.17
Chapter 3.2 --- Line and Curve Detection......................................................' --- p.20
Chapter 3.3 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.23
Chapter 4 --- Regression by Minor Component Analysis --- p.24
Chapter 4.1 --- Regression by Ordinary Least Squares --- p.24
Chapter 4.2 --- Regression by Total Least Squares --- p.27
Chapter 4.3 --- The comparison of PCA and MCA --- p.28
Chapter 4.4 --- Experiment 4A : Regression on Artifical Data --- p.29
Chapter 4.5 --- Experiment 4B : Regression on FX Data --- p.30
Chapter 4.6 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.32
Chapter 5 --- Cointegration Test by Minor Component Analysis --- p.33
Chapter 5.1 --- Concept of Cointegration --- p.33
Chapter 5.2 --- MCA Based Cointegration Test --- p.34
Chapter 5.3 --- Experiment 5B : Cointegration Test on FX Data --- p.36
Chapter 5.4 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.38
Chapter 6 --- Model Selection by Minor Component Analysis --- p.44
Chapter 6.1 --- Hypothesis Test on Minor Component Coefficients --- p.44
Chapter 6.2 --- Experiment 6B : Forward Selection on FX Data --- p.46
Chapter 6.3 --- Experiment 6B : Backward Elimination on FX Data --- p.50
Chapter 6.4 --- Experiment 6C : MCA Based Selection on FX Data --- p.53
Chapter 6.5 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.54
Chapter 7 --- Cointegration by Modular MCA --- p.55
Chapter 7.1 --- Ordinary Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.56
Chapter 7.2 --- Experiment 8A : OMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.58
Chapter 7.3 --- Experiment 8B : OMMCA on FX Data --- p.63
Chapter 7.4 --- Variable-Dependent Modular MCA Method --- p.71
Chapter 7.5 --- "Experiment 8C : VMMCA on Artificial Data," --- p.73
Chapter 7.6 --- Experiment 8D : VMMCA on FX Data --- p.80
Chapter 7.7 --- Adaptive Modular MCA Based Cointegration --- p.89
Chapter 7.8 --- Experiment 8E : AMMCA on Artificial Data --- p.90
Chapter 7.9 --- Experiment 8F : AMMCA on FX Data --- p.94
Chapter 7.10 --- Concluding Remarks --- p.103
Chapter 8 --- Conclusions and Future Works --- p.105
17
"Models for major exchange rates: estimation and forecasting." 1999. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5889900.
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by Hou Ka Chun.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1999.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 89-95).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
LIST OF TABLES --- p.vii
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.viii
CHAPTER
Chapter I --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter II --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.6
Monetary Models
Nominal Exchange Rate Prediction
Nonparametric Estimation Techniques
Chapter III --- METHODOLOGY --- p.17
Unit-Root Tests
Zivot-Andrews Test
Error Correction Model
Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach to Cointegration
Local Polynomial Fitting
Chapter IV --- DATA --- p.36
Chapter V --- PARAMETRIC MODELING --- p.39
Estimation Procedure
Empirical Findings
Japan
Germany
Britain
Chapter VI --- NONPARAMETRIC MODELING --- p.50
Estimation Procedure
Empirical Findings
Chapter VII --- CONCLUSION --- p.54
TABLES --- p.56
ILLUSTRATIONS --- p.77
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.89
18
"Exchange rate pass-through: evidence from Hong Kong imports." 1997. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5889223.
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by Ng Yiu Hong.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1997.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 77-80).
Chapter ONE --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter TWO --- HONG KONG'S IMPORT PERFORMANCE --- p.5
Chapter THREE --- REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE --- p.9
The Elasticity Approach
Market Structure and Product Characteristics
Long-Run Profit Maximization
Hysteresis Models
Multinational Corporations and Intra-Firm Trade
Non-Tariff Barriers
Other Explanations
Chapter FOUR --- THE ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK --- p.19
Chapter FIVE --- DATA AND ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS --- p.22
Data
Econometric Analysis
Chapter SIX --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.33
Chapter SEVEN --- CONCLUSION --- p.40
TABLES --- p.43
APPENDIX --- p.64
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.77
19
"Forecasting exchange rates using extended Markov switching models." Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5888468.
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by Hok-hoi Fung.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1995.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 58-59).
LIST OF TABLES --- p.ii
LIST OF FIGURES --- p.iii
CHAPTER
Chapter 1. --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter 2. --- LITERATURE REVIEW --- p.3
Chapter 3. --- METHODOLOGY --- p.6
Formulation of the TVTP Model --- p.6
Filtered and Smoothed Probabilities --- p.9
Maximization of the Expected Log-likelihood --- p.13
Chapter 4. --- EMPIRICAL RESULTS --- p.15
The Simple 2-state Markov Switching Model --- p.15
The TVTP Model --- p.17
The 3-state Markov Switching Model --- p.26
Chapter 5. --- OUT - OF- SAMPLE FORECASTING --- p.34
Chapter 6. --- CONCLUSION --- p.40
APPENDICES --- p.42
BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.58
20
Buncic, Daniel Economics Australian School of Business UNSW. "An examination of some statistical and economic models involving exchange rates." 2007. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/40577.
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This dissertation is concerned with the examination of some widely employed nonlinear exchange rate models. In particular, its aim is to assess how well non-linear statistical models accommodate the theoretical implications contained in economic models and how well they are able to capture the empirical properties of the data. Chapter 2 gives a brief background to the concept of PPP and discusses the role of transaction costs in economic models, making it necessary to model exchange rates within a non-linear framework. Parametric as well as non-parametric statistical techniques are applied to a long time-series data set to give an indication of the empirical validity of non-linearity in real exchange rates. Wide threshold bands are found to be a common characteristic of real exchange rate data. Chapter 3 studies the fitness of the ESTAR model for real exchange rate modelling. It is shown that wide threshold bands in the empirical data necessitate a small transition function parameter in the exponential regime weighting function, leading to difficulties in the meaningful interpretation of regimes. When this occurs, it is also shown that the ESTAR model is weakly identified over the range of the sample data that one generally works with. These results are illustrated on an empirical data set by replicating the often cited study of Taylor et al. (2001). In Chapter 4 and Chapter 5 a number of non-linear models are evaluated. Simulation experiments indicate that LM style tests that are commonly employed in the literature to test for ESTAR non-linearity have a very low probability of rejecting the false null hypothesis of linearity when the true data generating process is in fact the ESTAR model of Taylor et al. (2001). It is further shown that, contrary to the claims of the recent study by Rapach and Wohar (2006), long-horizon forecasts from the ESTAR model converge to the unconditional mean of the series, so that there is no gain in utilising the ESTAR model for long-horizon forecasts. Studying the Markov switching model of Bergman and Hansson (2005) reveals that the model does not generate any non-linearity as predicted from economic models.
21
"The profitability of trading rules in international currency market." 2004. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5892217.
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Chiang Lok Man Cally.Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2004.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 29-31).
Abstracts in English and Chinese.
Chapter 1 --- Introduction --- p.1
Chapter 2 --- Literature Review --- p.4
Chapter 2.1 --- Studies against the trading rule profits --- p.4
Chapter 2.2 --- Studies for the trading rule profits --- p.5
Chapter 3 --- Data Descriptions and Methodology --- p.8
Chapter 4 --- Empirical Results --- p.14
Chapter 4.1 --- First trading rule --- p.14
Chapter 4.2 --- Second trading rule --- p.19
Chapter 4.3 --- Comparison between the two trading rules --- p.23
Chapter 5 --- Other Related Results --- p.25
Chapter 6 --- Conclusions --- p.27
Reference --- p.29
Figure 1 - 12 --- p.32
Table 1 - 14 --- p.44
22
"Study on forward premium puzzle." Thesis, 2007. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b6074212.
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Existing literature reports a puzzle about the forward foreign exchange rate premium over the spot foreign exchange rate. The premium is often negatively correlated with subsequent changes in the spot rate, which is considered to defy economic intuition and possibly violate market efficiency. Rational explanations include non-stationary risk premia and econometric misspecifications, and the puzzle as a guide to profitable trading. Actually, the puzzle consists of three aspects of anomalies: volatility, persistence, and unbiasedness. The puzzle has not yet solved fully thus far.In the latter part of the thesis, we try to explore the behavioral aspects of the investors in the foreign currency markets (spot and forward markets). We discuss asset prices in an economy where investors derive direct utility from their consumption and adjust their utility based on the concept of habit formation and "catching up with Joneses", therefore explaining thus far the formidable unbiasedness anomaly to a certain extent. Simulation results exhibit properties similar to what has been observed in historical data.
This thesis suggests firstly that there may be no real puzzle. A simple model fits the data. Starting from examining the relations between the excess return of speculation in foreign currency forward markets and the change rates of the return rate on equity (stock) portfolio and the change rate of futures price on stock index as well as foreign currencies where the stock markets and futures market are active, publicly traded, and highly transparent markets, the source of the risk premia in the future change in spot rate has been analyzed in detail. We believe that the panel data analysis is in place for the puzzle based on its nature. In this thesis we find that the future change in spot foreign exchange rate correlate with both forward premium and especially the change rate in stock index or the change rate of futures settlement price on the stock index or on the currencies, which implies that the investors compare and employ the profitable opportunities across financial markets not just act in only one market such as just foreign exchange forward market, thus maximizing the utility or efficiency of their funds. In addition, the change rate of futures price has rather impacts on the excess return of speculation in forward currency markets, thus establishing the relation between OTC markets and publicly traded markets of foreign exchange.
Tan Yue.
"January 2007."
Adviser: Jia He.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 68-09, Section: A, page: 4006.
Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2007.
Includes bibliographical references.
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Electronic reproduction. [Ann Arbor, MI] : ProQuest Information and Learning, [200-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Electronic reproduction. Ann Arbor, MI : ProQuest dissertations and theses, [201-] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstract in English and Chinese.
School code: 1307.
23
"Export elasticity to real exchange rate and urban-rural income inequality in China." 2012. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549098.
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本文主要研究實際匯率出口彈性對中國貧富懸殊的影響。我們使用了二十八個省份從1995年至2008年的數據。結果顯示實際匯率出口彈性愈高的省份其城鄉收入差距就會愈廣。另外，我們使用了各省的加工出口比例作為實際匯率出口彈性的工具變量。本文主要的貢獻在於分別地考慮出口數量和出口的商品種類來研究開放度對貧富懸殊的關係。在分開了出口數量和出口商品的種類對貧富懸殊的影響後，我們發現數據中呈現的中國對外開放度和貧富懸殊的正向關係，是基於出口商品的種類改變，而非如以前的文獻所說，是基於出口量的增長。因此，要決定一個省份的城鄉收入差距，該省份生產甚麼比其生產數量更重要。
This paper investigates the effect of export elasticity to real exchange rate and on urban-rural income disparity in China. We use annual data from 28 provinces from 1995 to 2008. The main finding is that provinces producing more elastic exported goods would have a higher urban-rural income inequality. We also construct the processing export ratio as an instrumental variable for the elasticity terms.
One main contribution of this paper is to consider separately the effect of export value and the composition of exports when we examine the relationship between openness and income inequality. After separating the effect of export value and the composition of exports, we find that the positive relationship between openness and income inequality mentioned in previous literature is caused by a change in export composition, rather than in export value. Hence, what the provinces produce matters much more than how much they produce when we determine urban-rural income inequality.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Chan, Ying Tung.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-34).
Abstracts also in Chinese.
ABSTRACT --- p.II
摘要 --- p.III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.IV
Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- OPENNESS AND INEQUALITY --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- COMPOSITION OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.2
Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEWS --- p.4
Chapter 2.1 --- LITERATURE ON THE CAUSE OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.4
Chapter 2.2 --- LITERATURE ON THE EFFECT OF OPENNESS ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.6
Chapter 2.3 --- LITERATURE ON THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA --- p.9
Chapter 3 --- DATA --- p.11
Chapter 4 --- REGRESSION MODEL --- p.12
Chapter 4.1 --- REGRESSION RESULT (WITHOUT THE ELASTICITY TERM) --- p.15
Chapter 4.2 --- ROLLING REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE ELASTICITY TERMS --- p.17
Chapter 4.3 --- REGRESSION RESULT OF REGRESSION (1) --- p.19
Chapter 4.4 --- INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE FOR THE ELASTICITY TERM --- p.20
Chapter 4.5 --- REGRESSION RESULT AFTER USING TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARE (2SLS) --- p.23
Chapter 5 --- DISCUSSION --- p.24
Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.29
REFERENCES --- p.32
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Tekle, Binyam Yemane. "Productivity bias hypothesis in purchasing power parity : a Swiss-South African case, 1994-2003." Thesis, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10413/6839.
Full textAbstract:
Professors Bela Balassa and Paul Samuelson (1964) have made a significant contribution to the theories of exchange rate by bringing a new thinking to the most popular exchange rate model, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). They have elucidated the contribution of productivity
in the determination of PPP. Accordingly, the emphasis of this thesis is Balassa and Samuelson’s Productivity Bias Hypothesis (PBH) in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the application thereof to South Africa and Switzerland for the period 1994Q1 -2003Q4.
The productivity bias hypothesis that explains real exchange rate movements in terms of sectoral productivities rests on two components: firstly, it implies that the relative price of non-traded goods in each country should reflect the relative productivity of labour in the traded and non-traded goods sectors. Secondly, it assumes that purchasing power parity holds for traded goods. The deviation of PPP from the equilibrium exchange rate or the real exchange rate is directly related to the ratio of productivity in a counter country over that of the base country. With inter-country productivity differences believed to be smaller in the service sector than in the sectors producing goods and with the prices of traded goods equalised through arbitrage, the relative prices of non-traded goods (services) would be directly correlated with productivity levels in individual countries. The thesis employs stationarity and cointegration tests in order to determine the presence of long-term, equilibrium, relationship between PPP and productivity variables of the above-mentioned two countries.
The overall finding of this thesis is supportive of the productivity bias hypothesis in purchasing power parity concerning the two countries, South Africa and Switzerland. Accordingly, it has been found out that the deviation from equilibrium exchange rate can be explained by differences in productivity. Though currently being challenged by the service sector, South Africa’s manufacturing sector is assuming an important place in the economy. Given the need for improved competitiveness in the manufacturing sector, it is imperative that policy analysis and formulation render increased emphasis on efficiency and costeffectiveness. Such an integrated approach may aid not only in raising productivity but also in managing the intertwined socio-economic challenges of unemployment, poverty and inequality.Thesis (M.A.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2005.
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Mynbaev, Kairat T. "Two essays in microeconomic theory and econometrics." Thesis, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/35191.
Full textAbstract:
The thesis contains two chapters which address questions important both for
the economic theory and applications.
In Chapter I we show that inequalities are an important tool in the theory of
production functions. Various notions of internal economies of scale can be
equivalently expressed in terms of upper or lower bounds on production functions. In
the problem of aggregation of efficiently allocated goods, if one is concerned with
two-sided bounds as opposed to exact expressions, the aggregate production function
can be derived from some general assumptions about production units subject to
aggregation. The approach used does not require smoothness or convexity properties.
In Chapter II we introduce a new forecasting techniques essential parts of
which include using average high-order polynomial estimators for in-sample fit and
low-order polynomial extension for out-of-sample fit. We provide some statements
following the Gauss-Markov theorem format. The empirical part shows that algebraic
polynomials treated in a proper way can perform very well in one-step-ahead
prediction, especially in prediction of the direction of exchange rate movements.Graduation date: 1995