Academic literature on the topic 'Foreign country assessment'

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Journal articles on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Hooper, Hayley J. "THE FUTURE IS A FOREIGN COUNTRY." Cambridge Law Journal 74, no. 1 (March 2015): 23–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008197315000173.

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IN R. (Lord Carlile) v Secretary of State for the Home Department [2014] UKSC 60; [2014] 3 W.L.R. 1404, the Supreme Court held by a four to one majority (Lords Sumption, Clarke, Neuberger and Lady Hale, Lord Kerr dissenting) that the exclusion of an Iranian dissident from the UK was a proportionate interference with the Article 10 ECHR right to freedom of expression of both the dissident herself and the cross-party group of parliamentarians litigating on her behalf. The parliamentarians had wished to invite Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, the exiled leader of the former terrorist group the People's Mojahedin Organisation of Iran, to the Palace of Westminster to speak about democracy and human rights in Iran. The Home Secretary had excluded the invitee on the basis of a risk assessment formulated in cooperation with the Foreign Office. The risk assessment had concluded that admission of Mrs. Rajavi might endanger foreign relations between Britain and Iran, and British national security because of the potential risk to the safety of British diplomatic personnel based in Iran. Lord Sumption put the matter succinctly: “the future is a foreign country” and the Courts should therefore be reticent to interfere with Executive predictions in the realm of “high policy” (at para. [46]). The judgment is of great interest not only for its background facts, which concern the often fraught and complicated diplomatic relationship between the UK and Iran, but principally because the decision engages central constitutional questions regarding the institutional competence of the courts in judicial review.
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Cavusgil, S. Tamer, Tunga Kiyak, and Sengun Yeniyurt. "Complementary approaches to preliminary foreign market opportunity assessment: country clustering and country ranking." Industrial Marketing Management 33, no. 7 (October 2004): 607–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.indmarman.2003.10.005.

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Shalupayeva, N. S. "FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IMPACT ASSESSMENT METHODS ON THE HOST COUNTRY FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENT: AUTHOR'S APPROACH." Herald of the Belgorod University of Cooperation, Economics and Law 3, no. 70 (2018): 281–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.21295/2223-5639-2018-3-281-292.

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Santanello, Cathy, and Laura Wolff. "Designing Assessment into a Study Abroad Course." Frontiers: The Interdisciplinary Journal of Study Abroad 15, no. 1 (December 19, 2007): 189–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.36366/frontiers.v15i1.226.

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This article presents a study focused on how to assess whether students are learning as a result of a study abroad course and not just experiencing a trip to a foreign country. Appropriate assessments that are embedded into the study abroad course will complement the learning goals of the program and provide course assessment data.
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Arrieta Padilla, Carlos Gustavo. "Assessment of the Political Risk in a Country: a Practitioner’s View." Revue générale de droit 20, no. 3 (March 28, 2019): 407–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.7202/1058448ar.

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Political risk is inherent to foreign investment. It stems from either the government's or the political regime's instability, or restrictive and compelling governmental policies. To cope with this risk, two complementary instruments are used: risk assessment and deterrent measures. Taking into consideration South America, the author explains how the political risk assessment is realized through risks indexes, public or corporate: each carries its own criteria as shown here by the analysis of General Motors and Union Carbide methods of assessment. The author then discusses the means available to the investor to forecast and minimize the negative effects of the actualization of a political risk. He identifies two main categories of deterrent measures: business oriented strategies carried out by the investor or legal techniques of protection. Among the latter, the author analyses the stabilization and internationalization clauses; the security offered by certain bilateral or multilateral treaties to foreign investment; the guarantees agreed upon by organizations such as the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; the transfer of domicile of legal entities.
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OJWANG, J. B., and LUIS G. FRANCESCHI. "CONSTITUTIONAL REGULATION OF THE FOREIGN AFFAIRS POWER IN KENYA: A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT." Journal of African Law 46, no. 1 (April 2002): 43–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0221855302001785.

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This article is concerned with a specialized area of constitutional theory and practice, namely the regulation of the foreign affairs powers. Foreign affairs is a wide term which expresses more than mere relations. “Affairs” include matters and things, as well as relationships and a constitutional grant of legitimate plenary powerr. This entails that foreign affairs are matters relating to foreign countries, i.e. affairs other than domestic and, specifically, matters having to do with the interests of the home country in foreign countries. In this context, foreign affairs may be identified as a function. A function is an activity specially fitted for, appropriate to or expected of some particular type of operation because of its peculiar nature, or qualifications. The foreign affairs function, thus, as Bonfield says, may be in an activity specially fitted for, appropriate to, or expected of international relations—the interests of a state in foreign states—due to the peculiar nature or attributes of such relations. In addition, “power” may be defined as the competence to decide and act that is attached to a specific function. Hence the foreign affairs power is the competenbce to decide and act in matters having to do with the interests of the home state in foreing states. It is made up principally of the following elements: treay making, diplomatic relations, recognition of states and governments, and war and peace. Appropriate regulation of the elements of the foreign affairs power is a vital element of good governance in any particular state.
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Liu, Ping, and Jun Hong Lei. "The Comparative Analysis of Chinese Green Building Assessment System and Foreign Evaluation System." Advanced Materials Research 1004-1005 (August 2014): 1547–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.1004-1005.1547.

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At present, China's economy is developing rapidly, urbanization level enhances increasingly, the energy consumption and environmental pollution problems are getting serious increasingly, and it is deviating from the concept of sustainable development. Green building is an important way to achieve the concept of sustainable development and green building assessment system is the important basis and key to its development. Through the comparative study on evaluation methods and objects of the main evaluation system in China and abroad, this article find out the deficiency of the evaluation system in our country, draw lessons from foreign assessment system, and make our country green building assessment system more perfect.
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Sprinģis, Māris. "ASSESSMENT OF CORRUPTION EFFECT ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT FLOWS." Latgale National Economy Research 1, no. 3 (June 23, 2011): 229. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/lner2011vol1.3.1817.

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The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the impact of corruption on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Using data from the International Monetary Fund, Transparency International and United Nations conference about commerce and development data bases a cross-section econometric model was estimated to evaluate in which way and how strong corruption influence FDI inflows. Econometric modelling covers the period from year 2000 to 2007 and the data about 82 world countries that constitute more than 500 records. The main conclusion of the paper is that corruption has a negative and significant impact on the foreign direct investment inflows. Thus, changes in the level of corruption in the country, which is reflected as a decrease (increase) of the corruption index by one solitary, on average, cause an increase (decrease) in FDI inflow by 96,064 dollars per capita. Moreover, every single point of the corruption index in the previous assessment period, on the average ensures 123,077 dollars inflow of FDI per capita.
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Lyulyov, Oleksii V., and Bogdan A. Moskalenko. "Assessment of Country Investment Attractiveness Evaluation Approaches." Mechanism of an Economic Regulation, no. 4 (2020): 119–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/mer.2019.86.12.

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Investment attractiveness of a country, and approaches to its evaluation have been thoroughly debated over few last decades. Initially, the key question concerned the reasons as to why large number of resource holders (financial funds, technologies, management systems etc.) would locate their assets, especially research and development projects, in other countries rather than remaining in their home economies. Increasing the quantity and quality of contacts with developed countries within investment process is crucially important for the development of Ukrainian economy. As follows from that point, the authors have identified features of approaches to investment attractiveness evaluation on a macroeconomic level analyzing latest works of scientists and researchers around the world. It is believed, that the most valuable type of investments for future GDP growth is funds from multinational corporations: they bring not only money, but technologies, and decision how make new businesses profitable. Thus, the fundamental consideration for countries competing for investments is the influencing and improvement of such factors through effective investment incentives policies. Within this work, we researched recent studies of investment attractiveness evaluation around the world, and assumed key points for improving and applying those approaches in Ukrainian economy. Within literature analysis the authors structured approaches to the evaluation based on the methods and subjects those approaches used. The most common methods are related to econometric analysis of statistical data that is collected and published by international institutions and rating agencies. Current analysis shows a tangible dependence between country investment attractiveness and the dynamics of FDI inflows. This dependence is not always straightforward, which is explained by influence of many other determinants within decision-making process. The authors suggest that involving independent experts from respective sectors of the economy could help to optimize the results of statistical data analysis. The expert survey provides the necessary correction coefficients which are to increase the accuracy and relevance of the investment attractiveness evaluation. The authors proposed a generalized approach to assessing the country investment attractiveness, taking into account international experience and features of the Ukrainian economy. Key words: investments, country investment attractiveness, foreign direct investment, investment attractiveness evaluation.
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Cyrino, Alvaro Bruno, Ronaldo Parente, Denise Dunlap, and Bruno B. de Góes. "A critical assessment of Brazilian manufacturing competitiveness in foreign markets." Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal 27, no. 3 (May 15, 2017): 253–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cr-08-2016-0046.

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Purpose This study aims to examine the competitiveness of firms operating in the emerging economy of Brazil. This study examines the current perception of Brazilian business leaders regarding the level of competitiveness in various sectors of industrial activity and the country’s business environment. Design/methodology/approach Survey data were collected in a joint study developed by Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE) and the Brazilian Institute of Economics (IBRE). The population surveyed was composed of businessmen, managers and directors of Brazilian manufacturing firms. This survey was created based on a similar survey conducted by the Harvard Business School, which was also aimed at identifying the reasons behind national loss of competitiveness. Findings The results of the survey point out that the worsening competitive nature of companies operating in Brazil can be primarily attributed to the deterioration of its country-specific advantages and in particular those linked to government policies, services and bureaucratic procedures, all of which bear a negative impact on the country’s business environment. Research limitations/implications Future research should explore in more depth the specific types of initiatives that these firms have and are continuing to eagerly adopt with the aim of improving their domestic competitiveness and, namely, firm-specific advantages, whether it be by contributing to the improvement of the business environment as a whole, or by improving their own operations and management systems. Practical implications The main obstacles related to competitiveness are associated with the “Brazil Cost”, namely, the tax system, infrastructure, political system, labor laws and bureaucracy that do not appear to offer much room for maneuvering in terms of reducing these barriers in the short term. Managers not addressing these important input factors of competitiveness not only divert attention away from innovation and creativity but also could lead to more serious political, social welfare and economic implications in the global marketplace. Social implications This study helps to gain a better understanding of the initiatives that could and are being used to contribute to a fruitful discussion about leading public policies and government actions geared toward upgrading Brazil’s business environment and country competitiveness as a whole. Originality/value This research contributes to the understanding of the initiatives that could and are being used to improve firm competitiveness in Brazil. These initiatives contribute to a fruitful discussion about leading public policies and government actions geared toward upgrading Brazil’s business environment and country competitiveness as a whole.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Gould, Richard Robert, and RichardGould@ozemail com au. "International market selection-screening technique: replacing intuition with a multidimensional framework to select a short-list of countries." RMIT University. Social Science & Planning, 2002. http://adt.lib.rmit.edu.au/adt/public/adt-VIT20081125.145312.

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The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A
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Oortwijn, Maud. "Foreign entry commitment as a human choice : an empirical study of how firm and manager experience impact the entrance decision and entry mode choice through the managerial assessment of host country conditions in China." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2011. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/51490/.

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This thesis reports on how firm and manager experience relate to internationalization commitment in foreign entrance decisions and mode choice, by studying the managerial assessment of the host country. In doing so, it addresses the core issue of international business studies: a lack of knowledge about foreign markets complicates the decision making on commitment to work across country borders. The basic premise of the well known internationalization process theory is that knowledge on internationalization is acquired through firm experience abroad (Johanson and Vahlne, 1977). This study provides empirical support for the assumed experiential learning within the firm. Multilevel comparative case studies are suited to study how managerial assessment reflects the learning of the firm in the internationalization process. A total of 54 plans with 26 decision making managers are studied in 25 Dutch firms. Data is gathered on (a) the managerial assessment of host country conditions in China, (b) the firm and manager’s experience and (c) how the main strategic choices evolve during the entrance process. This multilevel analysis allows for insight in what causes increasing entry commitments. The findings confirm that more international experience often relates to higher commitment in entrance and entry mode, supporting the internationalization process view empirically. Analysis at a lower level reveals how different managers form varying opinions on host country conditions in China, dependent on the firm and manager’s characteristics and experience. The manager’s host country assessment reflects the learning process in internationalization. The manager and the firm as a context in which entry choices are made, should not be ignored in international business research.
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Mykkänen, Tina. "An Assessment of Returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters’ Commitment to Reintegrate : A Case Study of Kwale County, Kenya." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för samhällsstudier (SS), 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-75957.

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The preoccupation in the past decades with theorizing radicalization in order to prevent violent extremism has left deradicalization undertheorized. As the number of returning Foreign Terrorist Fighters (FTFs) is expected to increase as a result of the anticipated military and intelligence advancement on terrorism, the reintegration imperative stresses the urgency to develop comprehensive reintegration and deradicalization strategies. This study seeks to contribute to filling the research deficit begging for empirical data informed by FTFs’ experiences of, and challenges in, reintegration, through qualitative interviews with returning FTFs in Kwale County, Kenya; a county producing a relative majority of Kenyan recruits to Al Shabaab who are now offered amnesty on return to their county of origin. The Life Psychology framework, which assumes an inherent human strive to obtain a good life, i.e. life embeddedness, is adopted for the analysis. The study finds that returnees commit to reintegration in the absence of other alternatives, due to economic incentives and longing for acceptance. It confirms that the process requires the societal motivation in facilitation, but will fail without the sustained commitment of the returning FTF. The study further establishes that returning FTFs are not able to obtain a flow in life embeddedness, which would indicate inability to reintegrate. Yet, many of the interviewed returning FTFs express the contrary, which challenges the concept of life embeddedness as an indicator for reintegration. The study further challenges the general assumption that deradicalization is a precondition for reintegration, as it finds that radicalized individuals are able to reintegrate into communities of origin without deserting held radical beliefs, if those communities share radical sentiments. This study contributes to filling the deficit in empirical data, which when advanced will work to avert security threats posed by returning FTFs and enable utilizing the potential of the phenomenon to counter violent extremism.
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Kinuthia, Wanyee. "“Accumulation by Dispossession” by the Global Extractive Industry: The Case of Canada." Thèse, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/30170.

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This thesis draws on David Harvey’s concept of “accumulation by dispossession” and an international political economy (IPE) approach centred on the institutional arrangements and power structures that privilege certain actors and values, in order to critique current capitalist practices of primitive accumulation by the global corporate extractive industry. The thesis examines how accumulation by dispossession by the global extractive industry is facilitated by the “free entry” or “free mining” principle. It does so by focusing on Canada as a leader in the global extractive industry and the spread of this country’s mining laws to other countries – in other words, the transnationalisation of norms in the global extractive industry – so as to maintain a consistent and familiar operating environment for Canadian extractive companies. The transnationalisation of norms is further promoted by key international institutions such as the World Bank, which is also the world’s largest development lender and also plays a key role in shaping the regulations that govern natural resource extraction. The thesis briefly investigates some Canadian examples of resource extraction projects, in order to demonstrate the weaknesses of Canadian mining laws, particularly the lack of protection of landowners’ rights under the free entry system and the subsequent need for “free, prior and informed consent” (FPIC). The thesis also considers some of the challenges to the adoption and implementation of the right to FPIC. These challenges include embedded institutional structures like the free entry mining system, international political economy (IPE) as shaped by international institutions and powerful corporations, as well as concerns regarding ‘local’ power structures or the legitimacy of representatives of communities affected by extractive projects. The thesis concludes that in order for Canada to be truly recognized as a leader in the global extractive industry, it must establish legal norms domestically to ensure that Canadian mining companies and residents can be held accountable when there is evidence of environmental and/or human rights violations associated with the activities of Canadian mining companies abroad. The thesis also concludes that Canada needs to address underlying structural issues such as the free entry mining system and implement FPIC, in order to curb “accumulation by dispossession” by the extractive industry, both domestically and abroad.
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St-Amour-Blais, Josette. "Intégrer les études d'impact des droits de la personne au processus législatif canadien : une étude de cas sur des changements apportés à la loi sur l'immigration et la protection des réfugiés concernant les étrangers désignés et les pays d'origine désignés." Thèse, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/12528.

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Le 28 juin 2012, le Parlement canadien adoptait des modifications à la Loi sur l’immigration et la protection des réfugiés introduisant des changements importants dans le traitement des demandes de protection faites à partir du Canada. Ces modifications incorporent deux nouveaux concepts en droit canadien, le premier étant le pays d’origine désigné, qui figure sur une liste. Ces pays considérés comme « sûrs » sont désignés par arrêté par le ministère de la Citoyenneté et de l’Immigration. Les pays d’origine désignés ne peuvent être source de réfugiés, et les demandeurs d’asile provenant de ces pays reçoivent un traitement particulier. Le deuxième concept est celui d’« étranger désigné » : le ministre de la Sécurité publique et de la Protection civile peut désigner des arrivées de migrants comme étant irrégulières, si ces derniers se présentent aux frontières canadiennes sans les documents réglementaires. Ces étrangers sont obligatoirement mis en détention, et leur demande d’asile, le cas échéant, reçoit aussi un traitement particulier. Ces dispositions soulèvent de nombreuses questions concernant leur validité en vertu de la Charte canadienne des droits et libertés et du droit international. Dans un premier temps, ce mémoire a pour objet de montrer qu’il existe une lacune dans le processus législatif canadien. Lorsqu’un gouvernement est majoritaire au Parlement, il peut faire adopter ses projets de loi sans informer adéquatement l’opposition et les électeurs sur les risques qu’ils présentent de violer les droits et libertés de la personne. À notre avis, cette lacune est problématique, car à notre avis, des lois sont adoptées en violation de la constitution et plus particulièrement de la Charte canadienne des droits et libertés sans que le gouvernement ait à se justifier. Ce mémoire explore l’idée d’utiliser les études d’impact sur les droits de la personne, un modèle d’analyse des lois, règlements et politiques publiques qui vise à évaluer et faire connaître les impacts qu’ils ont ou peuvent avoir sur les droits fondamentaux des personnes affectées. Les cas de la France, de la Grande-Bretagne et de la Commission européenne seront analysés. Ce mémoire examine les dispositions concernant les pays d’origine désigné et les étrangers désignés en vertu de la Charte canadienne et du droit international. Nous concluons que si ces dispositions avaient fait l’objet d’une étude d’impact sur les droits de la personne, le Parlement et les Canadiens auraient été informés des risques de violation des droits fondamentaux des demandeurs d’asile concernés.
On the 28th of June 2012, the Parliament of Canada adopted modifications to the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act (IRPA), introducing important changes in the way claims for refugee protection from inside Canada are treated. These modifications bring about new concepts in Canadian law. The first is the notion of “designated countries of origin”. By ministerial Decree, the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration designates countries that do not usually produce refugees. Asylum seekers from these countries will face some important changes in the treatment of their application. The second one is the status of “designated foreign national”; it gives the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness the authority to designate as irregular the arrival of migrants who are not in possession of regulatory documentation. This designation leads to mandatory detention. The designated foreign nationals will also face specific treatment. These dispositions raise questions about their validity with respect to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. As a first step, the object of this master’s thesis is to show that there is an information gap in the Canadian legislative process. A majority government is able to pass into law any of its own bills as it controls both the Executive and the Legislature. The government is not bound to inform adequately the opposition parties nor the electors about the risks of any bill. In our opinion, this is an obvious gap since some bills are adopted without the government having to provide justifications, even if they run the risk of being in violation of the Constitution and more particularly of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedom. This thesis explores the idea of using Human Rights Impact assessments (HRIA): an analysis model evaluating the impact of laws, regulations and public policies on human rights. The cases of France, Great Britain and the European Commission are used in this analysis. Finally, this thesis analyzed “designated country of origin” and “designated foreign national” dispositions of the IRPA in regard to the Canadian Charter and international law. We conclude that if these dispositions had been analyzed using a HRIA prior to their adoption, the Parliament and Canadians would have been informed about the risk of violation of the concerned asylum seekers’ fundamental rights.
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陳映慈. "The Assessment of the Public Sector on the Achievement of the Foreign Workers’ Affairs Inspecting Group-Case study on Changhua County." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98107373146379611314.

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Exnerová, Marie. "Problematika začleňování žáků cizinců se zaměřením na zemi jejich původu." Master's thesis, 2015. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-336698.

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EXNEROVÁ, Marie. The Issue of Integration of Foreign Pupils with Focusing on Their Origin Country. Prague, 2014. Diploma thesis. UK, PedF. The aim of this thesis is to analyze and evaluate the current situation of the integration in the Czech education system focusing on the issues and specifics inclusion of foreign pupils and on consideration of the impact of pupils' country of origin on the process. The theoretical part of diploma thesis mentions the reasons for the integration of foreigners. Moreover, it highlights why and from where they are coming to the Czech Republic. It captures the current legislation and the rights of foreigners who want to settle permanently in the Czech Republic. Further, it shows the analysis of different ways of educating pupils with special needs, the placement of foreign pupils at Czech elementary schools and intercultural differences, which may have impact on pupils' integration. The practical part focuses on comparing the available theoretical knowledge and the everyday reality of Czech teachers who teach foreign pupils and can work on their daily practice. Based on the comparison of theoretical and practical knowledge the author explains the personal point of view on the integration of foreign pupils and suggests some ideas how to overcome mentioned shortcomings....
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Books on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Country risk: Assessment and monitoring. Lexington, Mass: Lexington Books, 1985.

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Krayenbuehl, Thomas E. Country risk: Assessment and monitoring. Cambridge: Woodhead-Faulkner, 1985.

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Country risk: Assessment and monitoring. 2nd ed. Cambridge: Woodhead-Faulkner, 1988.

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Krayenbuehl, Thomas E. Country risk: Assessment and monitoring. Cambridge: Woodhead-Faulkner, 1985.

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professor, Clark Ephraim, and Groslambert Bertrand, eds. Country risk assessment: A guide to global investment strategy. Hoboken, NJ: J. Wiley, 2003.

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S, Ewing John, ed. Country risk assessment: Theory and worldwide practice. New York: Praeger, 1985.

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Asayehgn, Desta. International political risk assessment for foreign direct investment and international lending decisions. Needham Heights, MA: Ginn Press, 1993.

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Ting, Wenlee. Multinational risk assessment and management: Strategies for investment and marketing decisions. New York: Quorum Books, 1988.

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Bouchet, Michel Henry, Bertrand Groslambert, and Ephraim Clark. Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2009.

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Bouchet, Michel Henry, Bertrand Groslambert, and Ephraim Clark. Country Risk Assessment: A Guide to Global Investment Strategy. Wiley & Sons, Incorporated, John, 2003.

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Book chapters on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Osabuohien, Evans S., Ciliaka M. Gitau, Uchenna R. Efobi, and Michael Bruentrup. "Agents and Implications of Foreign Land Deals in East African Community." In Handbook of Research on In-Country Determinants and Implications of Foreign Land Acquisitions, 263–86. IGI Global, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7405-9.ch013.

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Some of the factors that have been attributed to the global increase of Foreign Land Deals (FLDs) include the three Fs (food, fuel, and finance) crises, among others. However, most of the empirical evidence stems from the assessment of a broad set of countries. An analysis on the main determinants across host communities within a country presents specificity and closer reality. This chapter contributes by examining the community factors that could exert significant influence on determining whether or not a community receives FLDs in East African Community (EAC), focusing on Uganda. Uganda is an interesting case to investigate because the country is one of the destinations of FLDs in EAC, apart from Kenya and Tanzania. Taking it one step further, the chapter investigates the possible implications of FLDs on the host communities in terms of improvement (or deterioration) on selected community outcome variables: the quality and services relating to education, road, water, and health facilities.
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"Probation and Parole Protective Factors." In Community Risk and Protective Factors for Probation and Parole Risk Assessment Tools, 157–77. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-1147-3.ch011.

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We now have a $4 trillion federal budget. We can spend this budget to expand our prison complex consisting of 1,719 state prisons, 109 federal prisons, 1,772 juvenile correctional facilities, 3,163 local jails, 80 Indian country jails and military prisons and immigration detention facilities. Or, we can build-up our military-industrial complex (i.e., our $600 billion for national defense and an additional $255 billion for out foreign affairs), Department of Homeland Security, and State Department. Or, we can increase our $750.7 billion budget to implement social service grants to state and local governments, which combined are a set of “protective” factors for probation and parole clients.
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Postal, Karen. "Testifying in a Diverse World." In Testimony That Sticks, 378–98. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/med-psych/9780190467395.003.0017.

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By the year 2050, the majority of Americans will no longer be white, monolingual English-speaking people of European descent. One in three Americans will be Hispanic and one in five foreign-born. As these dramatic demographic changes sweep through the country, the number of plaintiffs and defendants who are “untestable” with our current toolkit of largely monolingual, monocultural neuropsychological and psychological assessment measures will increase dramatically. The changing demographics will also be represented in the jury box and among the personnel in the courtroom. This chapter shares experts’, attorneys’, and judges’ experiences in the courtroom wrestling with these issues. They provide clear, succinct strategies to help experts increase their cultural competence in this changing world.
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Dias da Silva Ruy, Alisson, Ana Luíza Freitas Ferreira, Antônio Ésio Bresciani, Rita Maria de Brito Alves, and Luiz Antônio Magalhães Pontes. "Market Prospecting and Assessment of the Economic Potential of Glycerol from Biodiesel." In Biomass [Working Title]. IntechOpen, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.93965.

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Glycerol from biodiesel is a potential raw material for synthesis of several products with high added value. The world demand and the market value of these products are important information for defining the best investment for the implantation of a biorefinery. The information is available on websites of social associations, production companies and market consulting companies and can be mined, free of charge. The International Trade Center (ITC), with information on world trade and websites linked to the foreign trade agencies of every country, such as Comex Stat, in Brazil, are relevant search sources. In this context, this work presents procedures and search techniques for prospecting such information. Such a procedure is illustrated through a case study for which a search of market parameters for glycerol and its derivatives was carried out for use in the process design and economic evaluation of an industrial plant. It was found that crude glycerol had a market price close to US$ 170/ton, in 2019. Among its derivatives, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile and 1,3-propanediol have great potential for the development of new processes, within the scope of a biorefinery. Industrially, acrylic acid (US$ 1100/ton) and acrylonitrile (US$ 1500/ton) are produced from propene (US$ 880/ ton) and 1,3-propanediol (US $ 2000/ton) comes from glucose (US$ 460/t) or ethylene oxide (US$ 1200/t), which encourages the development of new sustainable processes.
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Ozeren, Suleyman, Suat Cubukcu, and Mehmet F. Bastug. "Lessons Learned from ISIS Recruitment in Turkey: A Paradigm Shift in Counterterrorism Is Needed." In NATO Science for Peace and Security Series – E: Human and Societal Dynamics. IOS Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.3233/nhsdp200077.

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The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has been unprecedentedly effective in recruiting foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs). While Turkey has been a transit country and a major hub for ISIS’s logistical and human resources, it also has become a prolific hotbed for its recruitment. Based on face-to-face interviews and open-source reports, this paper provides an in-depth assessment of ISIS’s recruitment structure and the challenges that Turkey faces in relation to ISIS’s activities and FTFs. We conclude with a set of recommendations and a roadmap for pursuing effective and sustainable policies against ISIS. Overall, Turkey should adopt a paradigm shift on counterterrorism, transform the security and intelligence apparatus, and develop rehabilitation programs that consider the specificity of individuals’ radicalization at different levels.
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Windsor, Duane. "Corruption and Anti-Corruption Reform in Central Asia." In Economic, Educational, and Touristic Development in Asia, 39–69. IGI Global, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2239-4.ch003.

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This chapter surveys information available in English from public sources concerning levels and composition of corruption in the five countries of Central Asia. Similarly, the chapter examines relevant information available in English from public sources concerning anti-corruption reform efforts in Central Asia. Focus is on the relationship between corruption and reform and economic, educational, and touristic development in the five countries. There is consideration of possible links to foreign direct investment and operations by multinational corporations. There is some comparison to neighboring countries. The chapter proceeds in the following phases. The first step is to assemble available information and studies concerning corruption and anti-corruption conditions in the five countries. The second step is to assess the determinants and consequences of both corruption and anti-corruption reform. The third step is to place information and assessment into regional context. The chapter provides a conceptual framework for interpreting detailed country information.
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Korsak, Olena, and Yurii Korsak. "PARTICIPATION OF UKRAINE IN INTERNATIONAL PISA-2018 TESTING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS OF RESULTS." In Priority areas for development of scientific research: domestic and foreign experience. Publishing House “Baltija Publishing”, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-26-049-0-20.

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The relevance of our research is that for the successful development of the country in the nearest future, it is necessary to assess adequately the situation reflecting the level of knowledge of Ukrainian schoolchildren in comparison with other countries. The progress and economy of countries is very dependent on the quality of the educational system and the scientific complex. A competition in education began to exist among the traditional forms of competitions among the states. Developed countries make attempts to attract the best youth from other countries that’s why the purpose of the study is to investigate the problem of pedagogical measuring. The objective of our study is to analyze and compare students’ educational achievements in international measurements. There are many reasons to determine the importance of qualitative and quantitative measuring of educational systems and for this purpose, developed countries have organized the international testing of pupils of all ages. The article focuses on reading skills among pupils of elementary school (PIRLS testing), knowledge of pupils of the 4th and 8th forms in mathematics and sciences of nature (TIMSS testing), and a complex measuring of the «readiness for life – XXI» of 15-year-old students (PISA) – Programme for International Student Assessment). Ukraine took part for the first time in the international PISA-2018 test – a comprehensive measurement of the readiness for life of Generation-Z students born in 2002. We offer an analysis of the reaction of Ukrainian educational administrators and experts to the results of intensive two-hour measurements of knowledge and abilities of many hundreds of our adolescents from secondary and vocational schools posted on the Internet. We provide data for all tests 2000-2018 years for the first time in the pedagogical press of Ukraine. They will allow readers to evaluate their own evolution of the results of all tests. So you can find ways to improve their professional activities based on a combination of administratively recommended and own conclusions. We point to the beginning of changes in higher education and in the content of university quality ratings. The new rating (Impact Rankings 2020) also focuses on protecting humanity and environmental problems.
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Suhail, Khushbakht. "Re-Defining and Re-Designing Public Education in Pakistan." In Educational Reform and International Baccalaureate in the Asia-Pacific, 291–315. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-5107-3.ch016.

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The purpose of this chapter is to offer a re-conceptualization of education in Pakistan, rooted in its unique context, that might maximize progress for the country and its citizens. Attempts at reform in the public education system of Pakistan are examined and parallels with foreign trends in reform largely driven by the popular ‘Human Capital' theory are found. This chapter identifies a form of education based in the cultural and historical legacy of the people of Pakistan, especially focused on development of critical-thinking skills of students. While it is teachers' responsibility to facilitate critical-thinking in students, they cannot do so if their own critical-thinking is not well developed. A critical-thinking disposition assessment of public primary teachers found that teachers have low scores. Therefore, this chapter concludes that the teacher-education system in Pakistan should be revamped to enhance critical-thinking of teachers as well as students. Policymakers in Pakistan are recommended to collaborate with IB for development of such a teacher-education system.
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Sunil, Kumar, and M. K. Salooja. "Using Web for Delivery of Open and Distance Learning Programmes." In Cases on Online Learning Communities and Beyond, 239–65. IGI Global, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-1936-4.ch013.

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This case study focuses on the usage of Web as a delivery mode for open and distance learning programmes in India. It describes the designing and delivering of a postgraduate level academic programme at Indira Gandhi National Open University. The university has been struggling with teething problems tied to the initial stage of acquisition of an online learning platform. It is a bit of an extensive chapter, as it documents academic and administrative policies being practiced by the largest university in the world to overcome these problems. The objective of this case study is to reflect on the evolution process and to identify conducive factors for successful delivery of online programmes. The interpretative case study methodology also facilitates distinguishing the evidence-based best practices. Access to technology and its robustness are the main constraints in delivery of education through online platforms for any developing country. The online programmes are able to attract a good number of foreign students. The institution has to concurrently put in place a policy framework covering aspects like: friendliness to the online interface; standardization of design, delivery, and assessment of the online programmes; recognition to the teachers and administrative staff involved in online programmes; and the use of open educational resources. This case study provides valuable insight for foreign universities ready to plunge into the vast higher education market in India and other developing countries without crossing political borders. It is also very helpful for universities, which are either planning or in the initial stage of acquiring online learning platforms.
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Sudan, Falendra Kumar. "Foreign Direct Investment in Land Acquisitions in India." In Handbook of Research on In-Country Determinants and Implications of Foreign Land Acquisitions, 194–213. IGI Global, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-7405-9.ch010.

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There has been large-scale Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in land in India for promotion of Special Economic Zones (SEZs). The key drivers of land acquisitions are food security, the bio-fuels boom, growing business opportunities, and policy reforms. Increased foreign land investment may increase economic growth and raise government revenues and create new livelihood opportunities through new capital, technology, know-how, infrastructure, and better market access. At the same time, foreign land acquisitions may result in local people losing access to the resources. Therefore, there is a need for wider public consultation involving all stakeholders to ensure improved livelihoods and food security. The creation of robust institutions and social and environmental impact assessments of FDI in land acquisitions are called for to promote inclusive growth through more job creation, infrastructure development, public revenues, environmental protection, and to protect local food security, particularly in times of food crisis. This chapter explores FDI in land acquisition in India.
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Conference papers on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Peyravi, Bahman. "ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL INNOVATION PERFORMANCE OF THE BALTIC COUNTRIES." In Business and Management 2016. VGTU Technika, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2016.47.

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This paper’s aim is to assess national innovation performance of Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) based on European innovation scoreboard results. The paper leans on the performance on each indicator and analyses the main factors behind the development in innovation performances in each country. The main underline of the paper is to explore the main factors which have been developed after being member of the European Union. The results of the paper indicates the inability achieve the standard of human capital, the impact of small economy. Estonia has higher innovation performance among other Baltic states; successful attraction of the foreign investment can be seen as the main cause. Furthermore, the positive relation with Nordic states and favorable tax policy in notable force for higher innovation performance in Estonia.
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Yuan, Fang. "Discussion About Public Participation in Environmental Impact Assessment in China’s Nuclear Power Plant Project." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-67828.

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Public participation systems in environmental impact assessment started late in our country. Relevant laws, regulations, and work protocols need to be further improved. In this study, extensive research was conducted on the public participation systems in the environmental impact assessment of foreign nuclear power plants. Analyze the current status of our public participation systems were drawn from legal aspect and the aspect of implementation. Together with case analysis, main problems of public participation systems in environmental impact assessment of China’s nuclear power plant were summarized from this study: (1) delayed information disclosure; (2) the scope of public participation need to be widened; (3) interactive platforms are required for convenient and efficient public participations instead of a single participation approach; (4) timely response to the platforms and more supervision over the participation systems are desired. Solutions to each problem are proposed to help develop relative regulations and the implementation of these regulations.
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J Clarke, Steven, Mohammadreza Akbari, and Shaghayegh Maleki Far. "Vietnam Trade Policy: A Developing Nation Accessment." In InSITE 2017: Informing Science + IT Education Conferences: Vietnam. Informing Science Institute, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.28945/3730.

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This paper is a review of the progress of the Vietnam socio-economic and development plans, and an assessment of the extent to which Vietnam is putting in place the critical social and economic development structures that will enable it to reach the status of “developed nation” in the time set (2020) by its national strategic plan. The research will identify and review trade patterns, trade policy and the effect of foreign aid on Vietnam’s plan to transform its economy and society from developing to a developed nation status. The overriding question stands as “is” Vietnam effectively moving towards developed nation status soon”? The review is conducted by collecting and analyzing data on foreign trade, foreign aid, business and general economic growth, development and social wellbeing. It identifies and appraises the trade patterns, trade effects, socio-economic policies and the effect of foreign aid on the economic growth and the progress of the country towards becoming a developed nation state. Vietnam has experienced significant progress to date based on conventional developed nation criteria. However, there is an ongoing need for continued assertive governmental application of geo-economic and geopolitical policies focusing on sustainable, comprehensive, and vital social, cultural and economic growth.
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Shaislamova, Nargiza. "Features of Investment Risk Analysis and Assessment." In 22nd International Scientific Conference. “Economic Science for Rural Development 2021”. Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies. Faculty of Economics and Social Development, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.22616/esrd.2021.55.046.

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The article examines the essence of the analysis and assessment of the risks of investment projects in the innovative development of the country's economy. One of the most important tasks for investors in the context of the coronavirus crisis is the analysis, assessment and effective management of risks that can affect investment projects before investing. And also, the investor must identify the factors that negatively affect the project and develop measures to reduce their negative impact. Based on the above, it can be said that improving the risk management methodology and evaluating investment projects based on modern and best practices has become one of the urgent tasks. In this article, the author explains the essence of risk management and presents the main stages of risk management developed by foreign and domestic economists, and also expresses her own opinion about the stages of risk management of investment projects in the form of a scheme. The article also presents the content of the methods of risk analysis that are frequently used in practice. In particular, the author shows the essence of methods for assessing investment risks, such as Break-even point, the sensitivity analysis of the project, the method of Scenarios, the method for assessing the sustainability of the project, Expert evaluation method, Analogy method, and others. We can identify two aims of research: 1) to study the stages of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic scientists, and, on their basis, to propose the stages of risk management, developed by the author; 2) to study various methods of risk assessment, which are a key part of investment risk management, and develop proposals for their application in Uzbekistan. To achieve the objectives of the study, the following tasks were identified:  explain the content of the economic categories “risk” and “investment risk”;  explain the content of investment risk management;  study of the process (stages) of investment risk management, developed by foreign and domestic economists;  development by the author of the stages of the investment risk management process;  study and outline methods for assessing the risks of investment projects;  development of recommendations on the application of risk assessment methods in Uzbekistan. Subject of research: methods for assessing the risks of investment projects. Information sources for writing the research was books and articles by foreign and domestic economists.
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Levine, P. H. "ACQUIRED IMMUNODEFICIENCY SYNDROME, HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS AND HEMOPHILIA." In XIth International Congress on Thrombosis and Haemostasis. Schattauer GmbH, 1987. http://dx.doi.org/10.1055/s-0038-1644752.

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Less than 15 years ago the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute surveyed physicians in the United States in order to characterize the demographics of hemophilia. The average age of persons with hemophilia in the United States was found to be 11.5 years old. By 10 years later, the life expectancy was predicted to be normal, and indeed the average age of persons with hemophilia in the U.S. is now in the early twenties. Early, intensive and predictably efficacious control of hemorrhage has made this result possible, and the therapeutic product which has allowed such control is commercial clotting factor concentrate.We now know that starting in 1978, and with great frquency during 1982 and 1983, the majority of U.S. hemophiliacs were infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It is estimated that as of January, 1987, approximately two thirds of the 20,000' persons with hemophilia in the United States have been infected with HIV. Among those with severe factor VIII deficiency, more than 9056 are seropositive. As of 1/5/87, there were 288 cases of AIDS among U.S. hemophiliacs, for an AIDS rate of approximately 2.256 of those with HIV infection. This number included 185 with severe, 32 with moderate and 28 with mild hemophilia A; 12 with severe, 6 with moderate and 1 with mild hemophilia B; 9 with vWD, and 4 others. A disproportionate number were older patients: 55 were ages 1-19; 62 ages 20-29; 85 ages 30-39, and 86 age 40 or older. Although the AIDS attack rate is no longer climbing logarhythmically, new cases are certainly still occurring.A variety of other HIV-related syndromes have emerged. Of great concern is immune thrombocytopenia, which is now relatively common; among a group of 209 carefully followed HIV-positive patients at our center, 31 (1556) are or have been thrombocytopenic. Progressive failure to normally gain height and weight in children with hemophilia has recently been shown by our group to correlate with HIV antibody positivity, and also with decreased T4/T8 ratio, decreased T4 cell count, decreased skin test reactivity, and subsequent development of ARC or AIDS in some such children. Finally, a picture of progressive fall in T4 count associated with recurrent non-specific infections and increased likelihood of positive viral culture, may predict an increased risk of developing AIDS.We know that the immune dysfunction in hemophilia is complex, and not wholly explained by HIV infection. One important factor may be the many foreign proteins contained in commercial clotting factor concentrates, and their ability to stimulate T cells. It is known that latent HIV infection in cultured T4 lymphocytes can be induced to enter the proliferative, viral secretory phase by the addition of soluble foreign antigens to the cell culture. Recent data of Brettler and colleagues, to be presented at this meeting, suggest that the use of highly purified VI!I:C (specific activity >3000 u/mg) in place of the present extremely impure products, may improve the immune dysfunction in hemophilia. This observation offers a new hypothetical approach to the prevention of progressive T4 cell depletion in HIV infected hemophiliacs, and requires immediate and extensive further study.The psychosocial burden of HIV infection is immense. The need for extensive, formal education and support programs is largely unmet in most parts of the world. Such programs are best run out of hemophilia treatment centers in most cases, and must include an active program on prevention of sexual transmission, provision of HIV testing before and during pregnancies, provision for maintenance of confidentiality, etc. Education concerning HIV is like all other forms of education. It requires formal organization, a curriculum, active rather than passive learning in which there is interaction between the teacher and the pupil, time for planned repetition, reinforcement with written materials, and assessment of goals achieved. For all of these reasons it is inappropriate to assume that the physician at the hemophilia center will be able to provide an adequate education program. Adquate paramedical personnel will need to undertake this effort, under the directjon of the physician.
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Reports on the topic "Foreign country assessment"

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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.
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