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1
Forster, Piers Mde F., and Karl E. Taylor. "Climate Forcings and Climate Sensitivities Diagnosed from Coupled Climate Model Integrations." Journal of Climate 19, no. 23 (December 1, 2006): 6181–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli3974.1.
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Abstract A simple technique is proposed for calculating global mean climate forcing from transient integrations of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). This “climate forcing” differs from the conventionally defined radiative forcing as it includes semidirect effects that account for certain short time scale responses in the troposphere. First, a climate feedback term is calculated from reported values of 2 × CO2 radiative forcing and surface temperature time series from 70-yr simulations by 20 AOGCMs. In these simulations carbon dioxide is increased by 1% yr−1. The derived climate feedback agrees well with values that are diagnosed from equilibrium climate change experiments of slab-ocean versions of the same models. These climate feedback terms are associated with the fast, quasi-linear response of lapse rate, clouds, water vapor, and albedo to global surface temperature changes. The importance of the feedbacks is gauged by their impact on the radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. Partial compensation is found between longwave and shortwave feedback terms that lessens the intermodel differences in the equilibrium climate sensitivity. There is also some indication that the AOGCMs overestimate the strength of the positive longwave feedback. These feedback terms are then used to infer the shortwave and longwave time series of climate forcing in twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations in the AOGCMs. The technique is validated using conventionally calculated forcing time series from four AOGCMs. In these AOGCMs the shortwave and longwave climate forcings that are diagnosed agree with the conventional forcing time series within ∼10%. The shortwave forcing time series exhibit order of magnitude variations between the AOGCMs, differences likely related to how both natural forcings and/or anthropogenic aerosol effects are included. There are also factor of 2 differences in the longwave climate forcing time series, which may indicate problems with the modeling of well-mixed greenhouse gas changes. The simple diagnoses presented provides an important and useful first step for understanding differences in AOGCM integrations, indicating that some of the differences in model projections can be attributed to different prescribed climate forcing, even for so-called standard climate change scenarios.
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Hansen, J., M. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy. "The missing climate forcing." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 352, no. 1350 (February 28, 1997): 231–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.1997.0018.
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Observed climate change is consistent with radiative forcings on several time–scales for which the dominant forcings are known, ranging from the few years after a large volcanic eruption to glacial–to–interglacial changes. In the period with most detailed data, 1979 to the present, climate observations contain clear signatures of both natural and anthropogenic forcings. But in the full period since the industrial revolution began, global warming is only about half of that expected due to the principal forcing, increasing greenhouse gases. The direct radiative effect of anthropogenic aerosols contributes only little towards resolving this discrepancy. Unforced climate variability is an unlikely explanation. We argue on the basis of several lines of indirect evidence that aerosol effects on clouds have caused a large negative forcing, at least −1 Wm −2 , which has substantially offset greenhouse warming. The tasks of observing this forcing and determining the microphysical mechanisms at its basis are exceptionally difficult, but they are essential for the prognosis of future climate change.
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Hansen, James, Makiko Sato, Pushker Kharecha, Gary Russell, David W. Lea, and Mark Siddall. "Climate change and trace gases." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 365, no. 1856 (May 18, 2007): 1925–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.
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Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the ‘albedo flip’ property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that ‘flips’ the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO 2 emissions and reduce non-CO 2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO 2 forcings is methane (CH 4 ), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O 3 ), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon (‘black soot’) has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.
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Ramaswamy, V., W. Collins, J. Haywood, J. Lean, N. Mahowald, G. Myhre, V. Naik, et al. "Radiative Forcing of Climate: The Historical Evolution of the Radiative Forcing Concept, the Forcing Agents and their Quantification, and Applications." Meteorological Monographs 59 (January 1, 2019): 14.1–14.101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/amsmonographs-d-19-0001.1.
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Abstract We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.
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Hoffmann, G., and J. Beer. "Holocene Climate Variability and Climate Forcing." PAGES news 12, no. 3 (December 2004): 18–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.22498/pages.12.3.18b.
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Shi, Xiangjun, Wentao Zhang, and Jiaojiao Liu. "Comparison of Anthropogenic Aerosol Climate Effects among Three Climate Models with Reduced Complexity." Atmosphere 10, no. 8 (August 9, 2019): 456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080456.
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The same prescribed anthropogenic aerosol forcing was implemented into three climate models. The atmosphere components of these participating climate models were the GAMIL, ECHAM, and CAM models. Ensemble simulations were carried out to obtain a reliable estimate of anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF). The ensemble mean ERFs from these three participating models with this aerosol forcing were −0.27, −0.63, and −0.54 W∙m−2. The model diversity in ERF is clearly reduced as compared with those based on the models’ own default approaches (−1.98, −0.21, and −2.22 W∙m−2). This is consistent with the design of this aerosol forcing. The modeled ERF can be decomposed into two basic components, i.e., the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) from aerosol–radiation interactions (RFari) and the aerosol-induced changes in cloud forcing (△Fcloud*). For the three participating models, the model diversity in RFari (−0.21, −0.33, and −0.29 W∙m−2) could be constrained by reducing the differences in natural aerosol radiative forcings. However, it was difficult to figure out the reason for the model diversity in △Fcloud* (−0.05, −0.28, and −0.24 W∙m−2), which was the dominant source of the model diversity in ERF. The variability of modeled ERF was also studied. Ensemble simulations showed that the modeled RFs were very stable. The rapid adjustments (ERF − RF) had an important role to play in the quantification of the perturbation of ERF. Fortunately, the contribution from the rapid adjustments to the mean ERF was very small. This study also showed that we should pay attention to the difference between the aerosol climate effects we want and the aerosol climate effects we calculate.
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Kravitz, Ben, Douglas G. MacMartin, Philip J. Rasch, and Andrew J. Jarvis. "A New Method of Comparing Forcing Agents in Climate Models*." Journal of Climate 28, no. 20 (October 13, 2015): 8203–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00663.1.
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Abstract The authors describe a new method of comparing different climate forcing agents (e.g., CO2 concentration, CH4 concentration, and total solar irradiance) in climate models that circumvents many of the difficulties associated with explicit calculations of efficacy. This is achieved by introducing an explicit feedback loop external to a climate model that adjusts one forcing agent to balance another while keeping global-mean surface temperature constant. The convergence time of this feedback loop can be adjusted, allowing for comparisons of forcing agents to be achieved with relatively short simulations. Comparisons between forcing agents are highly linear in concordance with predicted scaling relationships; for example, the global-mean climate response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration is equivalent to that of a 2.1% change in total solar irradiance. This result is independent of the magnitude of the forcing agent (within the range of radiative forcings considered here) and is consistent across two different climate models.
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Gillett, Nathan P., Hideo Shiogama, Bernd Funke, Gabriele Hegerl, Reto Knutti, Katja Matthes, Benjamin D. Santer, Daithi Stone, and Claudia Tebaldi. "The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP v1.0) contribution to CMIP6." Geoscientific Model Development 9, no. 10 (October 18, 2016): 3685–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3685-2016.
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Abstract. Detection and attribution (D&A) simulations were important components of CMIP5 and underpinned the climate change detection and attribution assessments of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The primary goals of the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) are to facilitate improved estimation of the contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing changes to observed global warming as well as to observed global and regional changes in other climate variables; to contribute to the estimation of how historical emissions have altered and are altering contemporary climate risk; and to facilitate improved observationally constrained projections of future climate change. D&A studies typically require unforced control simulations and historical simulations including all major anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such simulations will be carried out as part of the DECK and the CMIP6 historical simulation. In addition D&A studies require simulations covering the historical period driven by individual forcings or subsets of forcings only: such simulations are proposed here. Key novel features of the experimental design presented here include firstly new historical simulations with aerosols-only, stratospheric-ozone-only, CO2-only, solar-only, and volcanic-only forcing, facilitating an improved estimation of the climate response to individual forcing, secondly future single forcing experiments, allowing observationally constrained projections of future climate change, and thirdly an experimental design which allows models with and without coupled atmospheric chemistry to be compared on an equal footing.
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de Jager, C. "Solar Forcing of Climate." Surveys in Geophysics 33, no. 3-4 (May 9, 2012): 445–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-012-9193-z.
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Ocko, Ilissa B., V. Ramaswamy, and Yi Ming. "Contrasting Climate Responses to the Scattering and Absorbing Features of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcings." Journal of Climate 27, no. 14 (July 10, 2014): 5329–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00401.1.
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Abstract Anthropogenic aerosols comprise optically scattering and absorbing particles, with the principal concentrations being in the Northern Hemisphere, yielding negative and positive global mean radiative forcings, respectively. Aerosols also influence cloud albedo, yielding additional negative radiative forcings. Climate responses to a comprehensive set of isolated aerosol forcing simulations are investigated in a coupled atmosphere–ocean framework, forced by preindustrial to present-day aerosol-induced radiative perturbations. Atmospheric and oceanic climate responses (including precipitation, atmospheric circulation, atmospheric and oceanic heat transport, sea surface temperature, and salinity) to negative and positive particulate forcings are consistently anticorrelated. The striking effects include distinct patterns of changes north and south of the equator that are governed by the sign of the aerosol forcing and its initiation of an interhemispheric forcing asymmetry. The presence of opposing signs of the forcings between the aerosol scatterers and absorbers, and the resulting contrast in climate responses, thus dilutes the individual effects of aerosol types on influencing global and regional climate conditions. The aerosol-induced changes in the variables also have a distinct fingerprint when compared to the responses of the more globally uniform and interhemispherically symmetric well-mixed greenhouse gas forcing. The significance of employing a full ocean model is demonstrated in this study by the ability to partition how individual aerosols influence atmospheric and oceanic conditions separately.
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Bellouin, Nicolas, Laura Baker, Øivind Hodnebrog, Dirk Olivié, Ribu Cherian, Claire Macintosh, Bjørn Samset, et al. "Regional and seasonal radiative forcing by perturbations to aerosol and ozone precursor emissions." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 16, no. 21 (November 9, 2016): 13885–910. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-13885-2016.
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Abstract. Predictions of temperature and precipitation responses to changes in the anthropogenic emissions of climate forcers require the quantification of the radiative forcing exerted by those changes. This task is particularly difficult for near-term climate forcers like aerosols, methane, and ozone precursors because their short atmospheric lifetimes cause regionally and temporally inhomogeneous radiative forcings. This study quantifies specific radiative forcing, defined as the radiative forcing per unit change in mass emitted, for eight near-term climate forcers as a function of their source regions and the season of emission by using dedicated simulations by four general circulation and chemistry-transport models. Although differences in the representation of atmospheric chemistry and radiative processes in different models impede the creation of a uniform dataset, four distinct findings can be highlighted. Firstly, specific radiative forcing for sulfur dioxide and organic carbon are stronger when aerosol–cloud interactions are taken into account. Secondly, there is a lack of agreement on the sign of the specific radiative forcing of volatile organic compound perturbations, suggesting they are better avoided in climate mitigation strategies. Thirdly, the strong seasonalities of the specific radiative forcing of most forcers allow strategies to minimise positive radiative forcing based on the timing of emissions. Finally, European and shipping emissions exert stronger aerosol specific radiative forcings compared to East Asia where the baseline is more polluted. This study can therefore form the basis for further refining climate mitigation options based on regional and seasonal controls on emissions. For example, reducing summertime emissions of black carbon and wintertime emissions of sulfur dioxide in the more polluted regions is a possible way to improve air quality without weakening the negative radiative forcing of aerosols.
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Rotstayn, Leon D., and Joyce E. Penner. "Indirect Aerosol Forcing, Quasi Forcing, and Climate Response." Journal of Climate 14, no. 13 (July 2001): 2960–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<2960:iafqfa>2.0.co;2.
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Smith, Christopher J., Ryan J. Kramer, Gunnar Myhre, Kari Alterskjær, William Collins, Adriana Sima, Olivier Boucher, et al. "Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 16 (August 17, 2020): 9591–618. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020.
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Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.
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Klingmüller, Klaus, Jos Lelieveld, Vlassis A. Karydis, and Georgiy L. Stenchikov. "Direct radiative effect of dust–pollution interactions." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19, no. 11 (June 4, 2019): 7397–408. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-7397-2019.
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Abstract. The chemical ageing of aeolian dust, through interactions with air pollution, affects the optical and hygroscopic properties of the mineral particles and hence their atmospheric residence time and climate forcing. Conversely, the chemical composition of the dust particles and their role as coagulation partners impact the abundance of particulate air pollution. This results in a change in the aerosol direct radiative effect that we interpret as an anthropogenic radiative forcing associated with mineral dust–pollution interactions. Using the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry climate model (EMAC), which combines the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) with the European Centre Hamburg (ECHAM) climate model, including a detailed parametrisation of ageing processes and an emission scheme accounting for the chemical composition of desert soils, we study the direct radiative forcing globally and regionally, considering solar and terrestrial radiation. Our results indicate positive and negative forcings, depending on the region. The predominantly negative forcing at the top of the atmosphere over large parts of the dust belt, from West Africa to East Asia, attains a maximum of about −2 W m−2 south of the Sahel, in contrast to a positive forcing over India. Globally averaged, these forcings partially counterbalance, resulting in a net negative forcing of −0.05 W m−2, which nevertheless represents a considerable fraction (40 %) of the total dust forcing.
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Schneider, Edwin K., Michael J. Fennessy, and James L. Kinter. "A Statistical–Dynamical Estimate of Winter ENSO Teleconnections in a Future Climate." Journal of Climate 22, no. 24 (December 15, 2009): 6624–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3147.1.
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Abstract Changes in the atmospheric response to SST variability in the decade 2065–75 are estimated from time-slice-like experiments using the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model, version 3 (CAM3) AGCM forced by specified SST and external forcing. The current climate is simulated using observed monthly SST and external forcing for 1951–2000. The change in mean SST for the future is represented by the difference between the 2065–75 and 1965–75 decadal mean SST climatologies from coupled model twentieth-century/future climate simulations of the response to external forcing. The change in external forcing is similarly specified as the change of the external forcing concurrent with the SST change. These seasonally varying changes in SST and external forcing are added to the 50-year sequence of 1951–2000 observed SST and external forcings to produce the specified future climate forcings for the AGCM. Changes in the December through February mean ENSO teleconnections are evaluated from the difference between ensemble means from future and current climate time slice simulations. The ENSO teleconnections are strengthened and displaced westward in the time slice simulations, which is not in agreement with CGCM projections. These changes are associated with increased precipitation/atmospheric heating anomalies due to the warmer tropical SST. The quasigeostrophic stationary wave activity flux indicates that the dominant cause of the changes is a southward shift in a midlatitude central Pacific wave activity source rather than changes in the basic-state stationary wave dispersion properties.
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Sexton, David M. H., Howard Grubb, Keith P. Shine, and Chris K. Folland. "Design and Analysis of Climate Model Experiments for the Efficient Estimation of Anthropogenic Signals." Journal of Climate 16, no. 9 (May 1, 2003): 1320–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442-16.9.1320.
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Abstract Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space–time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.
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Verronen, Pekka T., Daniel R. Marsh, Monika E. Szeląg, and Niilo Kalakoski. "Magnetic-local-time dependency of radiation belt electron precipitation: impact on ozone in the polar middle atmosphere." Annales Geophysicae 38, no. 4 (July 13, 2020): 833–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/angeo-38-833-2020.
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Abstract. The radiation belts are regions in the near-Earth space where solar wind electrons are captured by the Earth's magnetic field. A portion of these electrons is continuously lost into the atmosphere where they cause ionization and chemical changes. Driven by the solar activity, the electron forcing leads to ozone variability in the polar stratosphere and mesosphere. Understanding the possible dynamical connections to regional climate is an ongoing research activity which supports the assessment of greenhouse-gas-driven climate change by a better definition of the solar-driven variability. In the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), energetic electron and proton precipitation is included in the solar-forcing recommendation for the first time. For the radiation belt electrons, the CMIP6 forcing is from a daily zonal-mean proxy model. This zonal-mean model ignores the well-known dependency of precipitation on magnetic local time (MLT), i.e. its diurnal variability. Here we use the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with its lower-ionospheric-chemistry extension (WACCM-D) to study effects of the MLT dependency of electron forcing on the polar-ozone response. We analyse simulations applying MLT-dependent and MLT-independent forcings and contrast the resulting ozone responses in monthly-mean data as well as in monthly means at individual local times. We consider two cases: (1) the year 2003 and (2) an extreme, continuous forcing. Our results indicate that the ozone responses to the MLT-dependent and the MLT-independent forcings are very similar, and the differences found are small compared to those caused by the overall uncertainties related to the representation of electron forcing in climate simulations. We conclude that the use of daily zonal-mean electron forcing will provide an accurate ozone response in long-term climate simulations.
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Shindell, D. T., A. Voulgarakis, G. Faluvegi, and G. Milly. "Precipitation response to regional radiative forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 12, no. 2 (February 13, 2012): 5015–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-12-5015-2012.
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Abstract. Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potential (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced changes in temperature, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.
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Shindell, D. T., A. Voulgarakis, G. Faluvegi, and G. Milly. "Precipitation response to regional radiative forcing." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 15 (August 2, 2012): 6969–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-6969-2012.
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Abstract. Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.
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Fyfe, John C., Viatcheslav V. Kharin, Benjamin D. Santer, Jason N. S. Cole, and Nathan P. Gillett. "Significant impact of forcing uncertainty in a large ensemble of climate model simulations." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 23 (June 1, 2021): e2016549118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2016549118.
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Forcing due to solar and volcanic variability, on the natural side, and greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, on the anthropogenic side, are the main inputs to climate models. Reliable climate model simulations of past and future climate change depend crucially upon them. Here we analyze large ensembles of simulations using a comprehensive Earth System Model to quantify uncertainties in global climate change attributable to differences in prescribed forcings. The different forcings considered here are those used in the two most recent phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), namely CMIP5 and CMIP6. We show significant differences in simulated global surface air temperature due to volcanic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 19th century and in the early 21st century. The latter arise from small-to-moderate eruptions incorporated in CMIP6 simulations but not in CMIP5 simulations. We also find significant differences in global surface air temperature and Arctic sea ice area due to anthropogenic aerosol forcing in the second half of the 20th century and early 21st century. These differences are as large as those obtained in different versions of an Earth System Model employing identical forcings. In simulations from 2015 to 2100, we find significant differences in the rates of projected global warming arising from CMIP5 and CMIP6 concentration pathways that differ slightly but are equivalent in terms of their nominal radiative forcing levels in 2100. Our results highlight the influence of assumptions about natural and anthropogenic aerosol loadings on carbon budgets, the likelihood of meeting Paris targets, and the equivalence of future forcing scenarios.
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Baker, Hugh S., Tim Woollings, and Cheikh Mbengue. "Eddy-Driven Jet Sensitivity to Diabatic Heating in an Idealized GCM." Journal of Climate 30, no. 16 (August 2017): 6413–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0864.1.
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The eddy-driven jet is studied using a dry idealized model to determine its sensitivity to thermal forcings. The jet latitude, speed, and variability are investigated under a series of Gaussian patch thermal forcing simulations applied systematically on a latitude–sigma grid in the troposphere. This work builds on previous studies by isolating the responses of the jet speed and latitude as opposed to combining them into a single annular mode index. It also explores the sensitivity of the jet to much smaller spatial heatings rather than applying forcing patterns to simulate anthropogenic climate change, as the size and magnitude of the forcings due to anthropogenic climate change are uncertain. The jet speed and latitude are found to have different sensitivity distributions from each other, which also vary between summer and winter. A simple mechanistic understanding of these sensitivities is presented by considering how the individual thermal forcings modify mean isentropic surfaces. In the cases analyzed, the jet response to forcing scales approximately linearly with the strength of the forcing and when forcings are applied in combination. The findings show a rich latitude–pressure distribution of jet sensitivities to thermal forcings, which will aid interpretation of jet responses in a changing climate. Furthermore, they highlight the areas where uncertainty needs to be reduced in the size and position of expected anthropogenic forcings, in order that the uncertainty in changes of the eddy-driven jet can be reduced.
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Erb, Michael P., Charles S. Jackson, and Anthony J. Broccoli. "Using Single-Forcing GCM Simulations to Reconstruct and Interpret Quaternary Climate Change." Journal of Climate 28, no. 24 (December 15, 2015): 9746–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0329.1.
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Abstract The long-term climate variations of the Quaternary were primarily influenced by concurrent changes in Earth’s orbit, greenhouse gases, and ice sheets. However, because climate changes over the coming century will largely be driven by changes in greenhouse gases alone, it is important to better understand the separate contributions of each of these forcings in the past. To investigate this, idealized equilibrium simulations are conducted in which the climate is driven by separate changes in obliquity, precession, CO2, and ice sheets. To test the linearity of past climate change, anomalies from these single-forcing experiments are scaled and summed to compute linear reconstructions of past climate, which are then compared to mid-Holocene and last glacial maximum (LGM) snapshot simulations, where all forcings are applied together, as well as proxy climate records. This comparison shows that much of the climate response may be approximated as a linear response to forcings, while some features, such as modeled changes in sea ice and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), appear to be heavily influenced by nonlinearities. In regions where the linear reconstructions replicate the full-forcing experiments well, this analysis can help identify how each forcing contributes to the climate response. Monsoons at the mid-Holocene respond strongly to precession, while LGM monsoons are heavily influenced by the altered greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Contrary to previous studies, ice sheets produce pronounced tropical cooling at the LGM. Compared to proxy temperature records, the linear reconstructions replicate long-term changes well and also show which climate variations are not easily explained as direct responses to long-term forcings.
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Andrews, Timothy, Piers M. Forster, and Jonathan M. Gregory. "A Surface Energy Perspective on Climate Change." Journal of Climate 22, no. 10 (May 15, 2009): 2557–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2759.1.
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Abstract A surface forcing response framework is developed that enables an understanding of time-dependent climate change from a surface energy perspective. The framework allows the separation of fast responses that are unassociated with global-mean surface air temperature change (ΔT), which is included in the forcing, and slow feedbacks that scale with ΔT. The framework is illustrated primarily using 2 × CO2 climate model experiments and is robust across the models. For CO2 increases, the positive downward radiative component of forcing is smaller at the surface than at the tropopause, and so a rapid reduction in the upward surface latent heat (LH) flux is induced to conserve the tropospheric heat budget; this reduces the precipitation rate. Analysis of the time-dependent surface energy balance over sea and land separately reveals that land areas rapidly regain energy balance, and significant land surface warming occurs before global sea temperatures respond. The 2 × CO2 results are compared to a solar increase experiment and show that some fast responses are forcing dependent. In particular, a significant forcing from the fast hydrological response found in the CO2 experiments is much smaller in the solar experiment. The different fast response explains why previous equilibrium studies found differences in the hydrological sensitivity between these two forcings. On longer time scales, as ΔT increases, the net surface longwave and LH fluxes provide positive and negative surface feedbacks, respectively, while the net surface shortwave and sensible heat fluxes change little. It is found that in contrast to their fast responses, the longer-term response of both surface energy fluxes and the global hydrological cycle are similar for the different forcing agents.
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Eby, M., A. J. Weaver, K. Alexander, K. Zickfeld, A. Abe-Ouchi, A. A. Cimatoribus, E. Crespin, et al. "Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity." Climate of the Past 9, no. 3 (May 16, 2013): 1111–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1111-2013.
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Abstract. Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.
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Sobolowski, Stefan, Gavin Gong, and Mingfang Ting. "Modeled Climate State and Dynamic Responses to Anomalous North American Snow Cover." Journal of Climate 23, no. 3 (February 1, 2010): 785–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli3219.1.
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Abstract The radiative and thermal properties of widespread snow cover anomalies have the potential to modulate local and remote climate over monthly to seasonal time scales. In this study, physical and dynamical links between anomalous North American snow conditions and Northern Hemisphere climate are examined. A pair of 40-member ensemble AGCM experiments is run, with prescribed high- and low-snow forcings over North America during the course of an entire year (EY). The difference between the two ensemble averages reflects the climatic response to sustained EY snow forcing. Local surface responses over the snow forcing occur in all seasons, and a significant remote surface temperature response occurs over Eurasia during spring. A hemispheric-scale transient eddy response to EY forcing also occurs, which propagates downstream from the forcing region to Eurasia, and then reaches a maximum in extent and amplitude in spring. The evolution of this transient eddy response is indicative of considerable downstream development and is consistent with known storm-track dynamics. This transient response is shown to be a result of persistent steepened temperature gradients created by the anomalous snow conditions, which contribute to enhanced baroclinicity over the storm-track entrance regions. A second pair of experiments is run, with the prescribed high- and low-snow forcings over North America restricted to the fall season (FS). The dynamical response to FS forcing is muted compared to the EY scenario, suggesting that the seasonal timing and persistence of the snow forcing are essential for the remote teleconnection.
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Iglesias-Suarez, Fernando, Douglas E. Kinnison, Alexandru Rap, Amanda C. Maycock, Oliver Wild, and Paul J. Young. "Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18, no. 9 (May 3, 2018): 6121–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6121-2018.
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Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.
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McLandress, Charles, Theodore G. Shepherd, John F. Scinocca, David A. Plummer, Michael Sigmond, Andreas I. Jonsson, and M. Catherine Reader. "Separating the Dynamical Effects of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Troposphere." Journal of Climate 24, no. 6 (March 15, 2011): 1850–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3958.1.
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Abstract The separate effects of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) on forcing circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere are investigated using a version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is coupled to an ocean. Circulation-related diagnostics include zonal wind, tropopause pressure, Hadley cell width, jet location, annular mode index, precipitation, wave drag, and eddy fluxes of momentum and heat. As expected, the tropospheric response to the ODS forcing occurs primarily in austral summer, with past (1960–99) and future (2000–99) trends of opposite sign, while the GHG forcing produces more seasonally uniform trends with the same sign in the past and future. In summer the ODS forcing dominates past trends in all diagnostics, while the two forcings contribute nearly equally but oppositely to future trends. The ODS forcing produces a past surface temperature response consisting of cooling over eastern Antarctica, and is the dominant driver of past summertime surface temperature changes when the model is constrained by observed sea surface temperatures. For all diagnostics, the response to the ODS and GHG forcings is additive; that is, the linear trend computed from the simulations using the combined forcings equals (within statistical uncertainty) the sum of the linear trends from the simulations using the two separate forcings. Space–time spectra of eddy fluxes and the spatial distribution of transient wave drag are examined to assess the viability of several recently proposed mechanisms for the observed poleward shift in the tropospheric jet.
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Meehl, Gerald A., Warren M. Washington, Julie M. Arblaster, Aixue Hu, Haiyan Teng, Claudia Tebaldi, Benjamin N. Sanderson, et al. "Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4." Journal of Climate 25, no. 11 (June 2012): 3661–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00240.1.
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Results are presented from experiments performed with the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). These include multiple ensemble members of twentieth-century climate with anthropogenic and natural forcings as well as single-forcing runs, sensitivity experiments with sulfate aerosol forcing, twenty-first-century representative concentration pathway (RCP) mitigation scenarios, and extensions for those scenarios beyond 2100–2300. Equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM4 is 3.20°C, and the transient climate response is 1.73°C. Global surface temperatures averaged for the last 20 years of the twenty-first century compared to the 1986–2005 reference period for six-member ensembles from CCSM4 are +0.85°, +1.64°, +2.09°, and +3.53°C for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5, respectively. The ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, which weakens during the twentieth century in the model, nearly recovers to early twentieth-century values in RCP2.6, partially recovers in RCP4.5 and RCP6, and does not recover by 2100 in RCP8.5. Heat wave intensity is projected to increase almost everywhere in CCSM4 in a future warmer climate, with the magnitude of the increase proportional to the forcing. Precipitation intensity is also projected to increase, with dry days increasing in most subtropical areas. For future climate, there is almost no summer sea ice left in the Arctic in the high RCP8.5 scenario by 2100, but in the low RCP2.6 scenario there is substantial sea ice remaining in summer at the end of the century.
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Bradley, Raymomd S. "Climate Forcing During the Holocene." PAGES news 11, no. 2-3 (October 2003): 18–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.22498/pages.11.2-3.18.
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Ruzmaikin, Alexander. "Climate Patterns: Origin and Forcing." American Journal of Climate Change 10, no. 02 (2021): 204–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ajcc.2021.102010.
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Lacis, Andrew, James Hansen, and Makiko Sato. "Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters 19, no. 15 (August 3, 1992): 1607–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/92gl01620.
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Davey, Michael. "Climate forcing by warm seas." Nature 334, no. 6183 (August 1988): 565–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/334565a0.
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Pekarek, Alfred H. "Solar Forcing of Earth's Climate." Environmental Geosciences 7, no. 4 (December 2000): 215. http://dx.doi.org/10.1046/j.1526-0984.2000.74003-7.x.
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Bottcher, Frits. "Climate Change: Forcing a Treaty." Energy & Environment 7, no. 4 (December 1996): 377–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958305x9600700407.
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The theory of global warming, for which there is little evidence, has come to dominate the world's environmental agenda to such an extent that an international treaty is based on it. This remarkable feat came about through the well-orchestrated efforts of an inner circle of science-policy makers within the IPCC, who dominated discussion in order to achieve the necessary 'scientific consensus' for politicians to take action. This paper explains how all this was achieved, and traces the global warming campaign from its inception in the 1980s to the Berlin conference of 1995.
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Finkl, Charlie. "Climate forcing of geological hazards." International Journal of Environmental Studies 70, no. 3 (June 2013): 460–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2013.802939.
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Hansen, J., M. Sato, and R. Ruedy. "Radiative forcing and climate response." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 102, no. D6 (March 1, 1997): 6831–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/96jd03436.
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CHARLSON, R. J., S. E. SCHWARTZ, J. M. HALES, R. D. CESS, J. A. COAKLEY, J. E. HANSEN, and D. J. HOFMANN. "Climate Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols." Science 255, no. 5043 (January 24, 1992): 423–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.255.5043.423.
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Haigh, Joanna D. "Radiative forcing of climate change." Weather 57, no. 8 (August 1, 2002): 278–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1256/004316502320517362.
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Soon, W., E. Posmentier, and S. Baliunas. "Climate hypersensitivity to solar forcing?" Annales Geophysicae 18, no. 5 (May 31, 2000): 583–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00585-000-0583-z.
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Abstract. We compare the equilibrium climate responses of a quasi-dynamical energy balance model to radiative forcing by equivalent changes in CO2, solar total irradiance (Stot) and solar UV (SUV). The response is largest in the SUV case, in which the imposed UV radiative forcing is preferentially absorbed in the layer above 250 mb, in contrast to the weak response from global-columnar radiative loading by increases in CO2 or Stot. The hypersensitive response of the climate system to solar UV forcing is caused by strongly coupled feedback involving vertical static stability, tropical thick cirrus ice clouds and stratospheric ozone. This mechanism offers a plausible explanation of the apparent hypersensitivity of climate to solar forcing, as suggested by analyses of recent climatic records. The model hypersensitivity strongly depends on climate parameters, especially cloud radiative properties, but is effective for arguably realistic values of these parameters. The proposed solar forcing mechanism should be further confirmed using other models (e.g., general circulation models) that may better capture radiative and dynamical couplings of the troposphere and stratosphere.Key words: Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology · general or miscellaneous) · Solar physics · astrophysics · and astronomy (ultraviolet emissions)
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Spracklen, Dominick V., Boris Bonn, and Kenneth S. Carslaw. "Boreal forests, aerosols and the impacts on clouds and climate." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, no. 1885 (September 30, 2008): 4613–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0201.
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Previous studies have concluded that boreal forests warm the climate because the cooling from storage of carbon in vegetation and soils is cancelled out by the warming due to the absorption of the Sun's heat by the dark forest canopy. However, these studies ignored the impacts of forests on atmospheric aerosol. We use a global atmospheric model to show that, through emission of organic vapours and the resulting condensational growth of newly formed particles, boreal forests double regional cloud condensation nuclei concentrations (from approx. 100 to approx. 200 cm −3 ). Using a simple radiative model, we estimate that the resulting change in cloud albedo causes a radiative forcing of between −1.8 and −6.7 W m −2 of forest. This forcing may be sufficiently large to result in boreal forests having an overall cooling impact on climate. We propose that the combination of climate forcings related to boreal forests may result in an important global homeostasis. In cold climatic conditions, the snow–vegetation albedo effect dominates and boreal forests warm the climate, whereas in warmer climates they may emit sufficiently large amounts of organic vapour modifying cloud albedo and acting to cool climate.
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Slangen, Aimée B. A., John A. Church, Xuebin Zhang, and Didier P. Monselesan. "The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*." Journal of Climate 28, no. 21 (October 30, 2015): 8521–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-15-0376.1.
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Abstract Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.
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Boer, G. J., K. Hamilton, and W. Zhu. "Climate sensitivity and climate change under strong forcing." Climate Dynamics 24, no. 7-8 (February 15, 2005): 685–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0500-3.
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Schaller, N., J. Cermak, M. Wild, and R. Knutti. "The sensitivity of the modeled energy budget and hydrological cycle to CO<sub>2</sub> and solar forcing." Earth System Dynamics 4, no. 2 (August 2, 2013): 253–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-253-2013.
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Abstract. The transient responses of the energy budget and the hydrological cycle to CO2 and solar forcings of the same magnitude in a global climate model are quantified in this study. Idealized simulations are designed to test the assumption that the responses to forcings are linearly additive, i.e. whether the response to individual forcings can be added to estimate the responses to the combined forcing, and to understand the physical processes occurring as a response to a surface warming caused by CO2 or solar forcing increases of the same magnitude. For the global climate model considered, the responses of most variables of the energy budget and hydrological cycle, including surface temperature, do not add linearly. A separation of the response into a forcing and a feedback term shows that for precipitation, this non-linearity arises from the feedback term, i.e. from the non-linearity of the temperature response and the changes in the water cycle resulting from it. Further, changes in the energy budget show that less energy is available at the surface for global annual mean latent heat flux, and hence global annual mean precipitation, in simulations of transient CO2 concentration increase compared to simulations with an equivalent transient increase in the solar constant. On the other hand, lower tropospheric water vapor increase is similar between simulations with CO2 and solar forcing increase of the same magnitude. The response in precipitation is therefore more muted compared to the response in water vapor in CO2 forcing simulations, leading to a larger increase in residence time of water vapor in the atmosphere compared to solar forcing simulations. Finally, energy budget calculations show that poleward atmospheric energy transport increases more in solar forcing compared to equivalent CO2 forcing simulations, which is in line with the identified strong increase in large-scale precipitation in solar forcing scenarios.
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Schaller, N., J. Cermak, M. Wild, and R. Knutti. "The sensitivity of the energy budget and hydrological cycle to CO<sub>2</sub> and solar forcing." Earth System Dynamics Discussions 4, no. 1 (March 18, 2013): 393–428. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esdd-4-393-2013.
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Abstract. The transient responses of the energy budget and the hydrological cycle to CO2 and solar forcings of the same magnitude in a global climate model are quantified in this study. Idealized simulations are designed to test the assumption that the responses to forcings are linearly additive, i.e. whether the response to individual forcings can be added to estimate the response to the combined forcing, and to understand the physical processes occurring as a response to a surface warming caused by CO2 or solar forcing increases of the same magnitude. For the global climate model considered, the responses of most variables of the energy budget and hydrological cycle, including surface temperature, do not add linearly. A separation of the response into a forcing and a feedback term shows that for precipitation, this non-linearity arises from the feedback term, i.e. from the non-linearity of the temperature response and the changes in the water cycle resulting from it. Further, changes in the energy budget show that less energy is available at the surface for global annual mean latent heat flux, and hence global annual mean precipitation, in simulations of transient CO2 concentration increase compared to simulations with an equivalent transient increase in the solar constant. On the other hand, lower tropospheric water vapor increases more in simulations with CO2 compared to solar forcing increase of the same magnitude. The response in precipitation is therefore more muted compared to the response in water vapor in CO2 forcing simulations, leading to a larger increase in residence time of water vapor in the atmosphere compared to solar forcing simulations. Finally, energy budget calculations show that poleward atmospheric energy transport increases more in solar forcing compared to equivalent CO2 forcing simulations, which is in line with the identified strong increase in large-scale precipitation in solar forcing scenarios.
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Olivié, D. J. L., G. P. Peters, and D. Saint-Martin. "Atmosphere Response Time Scales Estimated from AOGCM Experiments." Journal of Climate 25, no. 22 (November 14, 2012): 7956–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00475.1.
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Abstract The global-mean surface air temperature response of the climate system to a specific radiative forcing shows characteristic time scales. Identifying these time scales and their corresponding amplitudes (climate sensitivity) allows one to approximate the response to arbitrary radiative forcings. The authors estimate these time scales for a set of atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) based on relatively short integrations of 100–300 yr for some idealized forcings. Two modes can be clearly distinguished but a large spread in time scales and climate sensitivities exists among the AOGCMs. The analysis herein also shows that different factors influence the mode estimates. The value and uncertainty of the smallest time scale estimate is significantly lower when based on step scenarios than gradual scenarios; the uncertainty on the climate sensitivity of the slow mode can only be reduced significantly by performing longer AOGCM simulations; and scenarios with only a monotonically increasing forcing do not easily permit the climate sensitivity and the response time for the slow mode to be disentangled. Finally, climate sensitivities can be estimated more accurately than response times.
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Song, Yangyang, Guoxing Chen, and Wei-Chyung Wang. "Aerosol Direct Radiative and Cloud Adjustment Effects on Surface Climate over Eastern China: Analyses of WRF Model Simulations." Journal of Climate 32, no. 4 (February 2019): 1293–306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0236.1.
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The WRF-simulated changes in clouds and climate due to the increased anthropogenic aerosols for the summers of 2002–08 (vs the 1970s) over eastern China were used to offline calculate the radiative forcings associated with aerosol–radiation (AR) and aerosol–cloud–radiation (ACR) interactions, which subsequently facilitated the interpretation of surface temperature changes. During this period, the increases of aerosol optical depth (ΔAOD) averaged over eastern China range from 0.18 in 2004 to 0.26 in 2007 as compared to corresponding cases in the 1970s, and the multiyear means (standard deviations) of AR and ACR forcings at the surface are −6.7 (0.58) and −3.5 (0.63) W m−2, respectively, indicating the importance of cloud changes in affecting both the aerosol climate forcing and its interannual variation. The simulated mean surface cooling is 0.35°C, dominated by AR and ACR with a positive (cooling) feedback associated with changes in meteorology (~10%), and two negative (warming) feedbacks associated with decreases in latent (~70%) and sensible (~20%) heat fluxes. More detailed spatial characteristics were analyzed using ensemble simulations for the year 2008. Three regions—Jing-Jin-Ji (ΔAOD ~ 0.63), Sichuan basin (ΔAOD ~ 0.31), and middle Yangtze River valley (ΔAOD ~ 0.26)—at different climate regimes were selected to investigate the relative roles of AR and ACR. While the AR forcing is closely related to ΔAOD values, the ACR forcing presents different regional characteristics owing to cloud changes. In addition, the surface heat flux feedbacks are also different between regions. The study thus illustrates that ACR forcing is useful as a diagnostic parameter to unravel the complexity of climate change to aerosol forcing over eastern China.
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Ma, X., K. von Salzen, and J. Li. "Modelling sea salt aerosol and its direct and indirect effects on climate." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 7, no. 5 (October 18, 2007): 14939–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-7-14939-2007.
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Abstract. A size-dependent sea salt aerosol parameterization was developed based on the piecewise log-normal approximation (PLA) for aerosol size distributions. Results of this parameterization from simulations with a global climate model produce good agreement with observations at the surface and for vertically-integrated volume size distributions. The global and annual mean of the sea salt burden is 10.1 mg m−2. The direct radiative forcing is calculated to be −1.52 and −0.60 W m−2 for clear sky and all sky, respectively. The first indirect radiative forcing is about twice as large as the direct forcing for all-sky (−1.34 W m−2). The results also show that the total indirect forcing of sea salt is −2.9 W m−2 if climatic feedbacks are taken into account. The sensitivity of the forcings to changes in the burdens and sizes of sea salt particles was also investigated based on additional simulations with a different sea salt source function.
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Ma, X., K. von Salzen, and J. Li. "Modelling sea salt aerosol and its direct and indirect effects on climate." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 8, no. 5 (March 6, 2008): 1311–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1311-2008.
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Abstract. A size-dependent sea salt aerosol parameterization was developed based on the piecewise log-normal approximation (PLA) for aerosol size distributions. Results of this parameterization from simulations with a global climate model produce good agreement with observations at the surface and for vertically-integrated volume size distributions. The global and annual mean of the sea salt burden is 10.1 mg m−2. The direct radiative forcing is calculated to be −1.52 and −0.60 W m−2 for clear sky and all sky, respectively. The first indirect radiative forcing is about twice as large as the direct forcing for all-sky (−1.34 W m−2). The results also show that the total indirect forcing of sea salt is −2.9 W m−2 if climatic feedbacks are taken into account. The sensitivity of the forcings to changes in the burdens and sizes of sea salt particles was also investigated based on additional simulations with a different sea salt source function.
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Makkonen, R., A. Asmi, V. M. Kerminen, M. Boy, A. Arneth, P. Hari, and M. Kulmala. "Air pollution control and decreasing new particle formation lead to strong climate warming." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 12, no. 3 (February 8, 2012): 1515–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-12-1515-2012.
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Abstract. The number concentration of cloud droplets determines several climatically relevant cloud properties. A major cause for the high uncertainty in the indirect aerosol forcing is the availability of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which in turn is highly sensitive to atmospheric new particle formation. Here we present the effect of new particle formation on anthropogenic aerosol forcing in present-day (year 2000) and future (year 2100) conditions. The present-day total aerosol forcing is increased from −1.0 W m−2 to −1.6 W m−2 when nucleation is introduced into the model. Nucleation doubles the change in aerosol forcing between years 2000 and 2100, from +0.6 W m−2 to +1.4 W m−2. Two climate feedbacks are studied, resulting in additional negative forcings of −0.1 W m−2 (+10% DMS emissions in year 2100) and −0.5 W m−2 (+50% BVOC emissions in year 2100). With the total aerosol forcing diminishing in response to air pollution control measures taking effect, warming from increased greenhouse gas concentrations can potentially increase at a very rapid rate.
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Colfescu, Ioana, and Edwin K. Schneider. "Decomposition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Historical Climate Simulation." Journal of Climate 33, no. 10 (May 15, 2020): 4229–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0180.1.
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AbstractThe Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) modulates various climate features worldwide with enormous societal and economic implications, including variations in hurricane activity in the Atlantic, sea level, West African and Indian monsoon rainfall, European climate, and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Leading hypotheses regarding the nature and origin of AMV focus primarily on its links with oceanic and coupled ocean–atmosphere internal variability, and on its response to external forcing. The role of another possible process, that of atmospheric noise forcing of the ocean, has received less attention. This is addressed here by means of historical coupled simulations and diagnostic experiments, which isolate the influences of external and atmospheric noise forcings. Our findings show that external forcing is an important driver of the simulated AMV. They also demonstrate that weather noise is key in driving the simulated internal AMV in the southern part (0°–60°N) of the AMV region, and that weather noise forcing is responsible for up to 10%–20% of the multidecadal internal SST variability in some isolated areas of the subpolar gyre region. Ocean dynamics independent from the weather noise forcing is found to be the dominant cause of multidecadal SST in the northern part of the AMV region.