To see the other types of publications on this topic, follow the link: Flood forecasting Victoria Mathematical models.
Journal articles on the topic 'Flood forecasting Victoria Mathematical models'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the top 17 journal articles for your research on the topic 'Flood forecasting Victoria Mathematical models.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Browse journal articles on a wide variety of disciplines and organise your bibliography correctly.
1
Zhijia, Li, and Kong Xiangguang. "Comparison on Three Mathematical Models For Special Values in Flood Forecasting." Journal of Lake Sciences 9, no. 2 (1997): 117–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.18307/1997.0204.
Full text
2
De OLIVEIRA, Guilherme Garcia, Dejanira Luderitz SALDANHA, and Laurindo Antonio GUASSELLI. "MODELS FOR SPATIALIZATION AND FORECASTING OF FLOODED AREAS IN THE SÃO SEBASTIÃO DO CAÍ URBAN ZONE, RIO GRANDE DO SUL STATE, BRAZIL." Pesquisas em Geociências 38, no. 2 (August 31, 2011): 132. http://dx.doi.org/10.22456/1807-9806.26379.
Full textAbstract:
The study aims at developing models for the spatialization and forecasting of floods in the urban area of São Sebastião do Caí, RS, Brazil. For the calculation of return period (RP), and in order to analyze the seasonality of floods, streamflow data from the station located in the city were used. However, for the development of a mathematical model for flood forecasting, the time series of a station upstream was also used in order to perform a regression with the quotas recorded in both seasons. For the identification of flood plains, a digital terrain model was produced based on elevation data in scales between 1:2,000 and 1:10,000. The QuickBird satellite image (spatial resolution of 0.61 m) was used only for the spatialization of the land use and land cover reached by each flood scenario. Mapping and 3D simulation of the areas affected by flooding were obtained for RP of 2, 5, 10 and 30 years. The following results are most significant: i) the river water level rises between 9.28 m and 11.98 m for RP of 2 to 30 years; ii) along the historical series, 75% of floods have occurred between June and October; iii) the mathematical model for flood forecasting showed an average error of 0.72 m, and the accuracy varies between 0.62 m and 1.84 m, according to the expected magnitude; iv) it was observed that 93 hectares of urban area in São Sebastião do Caí are hit by floods with a RP of 30 years (23% of the urban area); v) modelling of a recent flood event dated of 24/09/2007 has resulted in similar values for the simulated and observed flooded area.
3
Marquez, Adriana, Bettys Farias, and Edilberto Guevara. "Method for forecasting the flood risk in a tropical country." Water Supply 20, no. 6 (June 18, 2020): 2261–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/ws.2020.129.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract In this study, a novel method for forecasting the flood risk in a tropical country is proposed, called CIHAM-UC-FFR. The method is based on the rainfall–runoff process. The CIHAM-UC-FFR method consists of three stages: (1) calibration and validation for the effective precipitation model, called CIHAM-UC-EP model, (2) calibration of forecasting models for components of the CIHAM-UC-EP model, (3) proposed model for forecasting of gridded flood risk called CIHAM-UC-FR. The CIHAM-UC-EP model has a mathematical structure derived from a conceptual model obtained by applying the principle of mass conservation combined with the adapted principle of Fick's law. The CIHAM-UC-FR model is a stochastic equation based on the exceedance probability of the forecast effective precipitation. Various scenarios are shown for a future time where the flood risk is progressively decreased as the expected life parameter of the hydraulic structure is increased.
4
Kizilova, N. M., and N. L. Rychak. "Probabilistic models of water resources management on urbanized areas." Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Series: Physics and Mathematics, no. 4 (2020): 22–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.17721/1812-5409.2020/4.3.
Full textAbstract:
Gradual global climate change poses new challenges to the mathematical sciences, which are related to forecasting of meteorological conditions, preparing the infrastructure for possible rains, storms, droughts, and other climatic disasters. One of the most common approaches is synthetic regression-probability models, which use the spatio-temporal probability density functions of precipitation level. This approach is applied to the statistics of precipitation in the Kharkiv region, which shows the tendency to a gradual increase in air temperature, high indices of basic water stress, indices of drought and riverside flood threats. Open data on temperature distributions and precipitation were processed using various probability statistics. It is shown that the lognormal distribution most accurately describes the measurement data and allows making more accurate prognoses. Estimates of drought and flood probabilities in Kharkiv region under different scenarios of climate change dynamics have been carried out. The results of the study can be used for management of water resources on urban territories at global climate warming.
5
Simmonds, Jose, Juan A. Gómez, and Agapito Ledezma. "The role of agent-based modeling and multi-agent systems in flood-based hydrological problems: a brief review." Journal of Water and Climate Change 11, no. 4 (October 25, 2019): 1580–602. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2019.108.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Flood problems are complex phenomena with a direct relationship with the hydrological cycle; these are natural processes occurring in water systems, that interact at different spatial and temporal scales. In modeling the hydrological phenomena, traditional approaches, like physics-based mathematical equations and data-driven modeling (DDM) are used. Advances in hydroinformatics are helping to understand these physical processes, with improvements in the collection and analysis of hydrological data, information and communication technologies (ICT), and geographic information systems (GIS), offering opportunities for innovations in model implementation, to improve decision support for the response to societally important floods impacting our societies. This paper offers a brief review of agent-based models (ABMs) and multi-agent systems (MASs) methodologies' applications for solutions to flood problems, their management, assessment, and efforts for forecasting stream flow and flood events. Significant observations from this review include: (i) contributions of agent technologies, as a growing methodology in hydrology; (ii) limitations; (iii) capabilities of dealing with distributed and complex domains; and (iv), the capabilities of MAS as an increasingly accepted point of view applied to flood modeling, with examples presented to show the variety of system combinations that are practical on a specialized architectural level for developing and deploying sophisticated flood forecasting systems.
6
Mazzoleni, M., M. Verlaan, L. Alfonso, M. Monego, D. Norbiato, M. Ferri, and D. P. Solomatine. "Can assimilation of crowdsourced streamflow observations in hydrological modelling improve flood prediction?" Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 11 (November 3, 2015): 11371–419. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-11371-2015.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. Monitoring stations have been used for decades to properly measure hydrological variables and better predict floods. To this end, methods to incorporate such observations into mathematical water models have also being developed, including data assimilation. Besides, in recent years, the continued technological improvement has stimulated the spread of low-cost sensors that allow for employing crowdsourced and obtain observations of hydrological variables in a more distributed way than the classic static physical sensors allow. However, such measurements have the main disadvantage to have asynchronous arrival frequency and variable accuracy. For this reason, this study aims to demonstrate how the crowdsourced streamflow observations can improve flood prediction if integrated in hydrological models. Two different types of hydrological models, applied to two case studies, are considered. Realistic (albeit synthetic) streamflow observations are used to represent crowdsourced streamflow observations in both case studies. Overall, assimilation of such observations within the hydrological model results in a significant improvement, up to 21 % (flood event 1) and 67 % (flood event 2) of the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index, for different lead times. It is found that the accuracy of the observations influences the model results more than the actual (irregular) moments in which the streamflow observations are assimilated into the hydrological models. This study demonstrates how networks of low-cost sensors can complement traditional networks of physical sensors and improve the accuracy of flood forecasting.
7
Issermann, Maikel, Fi-John Chang, and Haifeng Jia. "Efficient Urban Inundation Model for Live Flood Forecasting with Cellular Automata and Motion Cost Fields." Water 12, no. 7 (July 14, 2020): 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12071997.
Full textAbstract:
The mitigation of societal damage from urban floods requires fast hydraulic models for emergency and planning purposes. The simplified mathematical model Cellular Automata is combined with Motion Cost fields, which score the difficulty to traverse an area, to the urban inundation model CAMC. It is implemented with simple matrix and logic operations to achieve high computational efficiency. The development concentrated on an application in dense urban built-up areas with numerous buildings. CAMC is efficient and flexible enough to be used in a “live” urban flood warning system with current weather conditions. A case study is conducted in the German city of Wuppertal with about 12,000 buildings. The water depth estimation of every time step are visualized in a web-interface on the basis of the virtual globe NASA WorldWind. CAMC is compared with the shallow water equations-based model ANUGA. CAMC is approximatively 5 times faster than ANUGA at high spatial resolution and able to maintain numerical stability. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (0.61), Root Mean Square Error (0.39 m) and Index of Agreement (0.65) indicate acceptable agreement for water depth estimation but identify different areas where important deviations occur. The estimation of velocity performs considerably less well (0.34 for Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, 0.13 ms − 1 for Root Mean Square Error, and 0.39 for Index of Agreement) because CA ignores momentum conservation.
8
Zhu, D., and I. D. Cluckie. "A preliminary appraisal of Thurnham dual polarisation radar in the context of hydrological modelling structure." Hydrology Research 43, no. 5 (May 3, 2012): 736–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2012.023.
Full textAbstract:
The Thurnham radar is a prototype of a potential operational C-Band dual-polarisation weather radar designed specifically for the measurement of rainfall. It is also designed to increase the radar coverage over London when operating as a conventional C-Band radar as a direct consequence of the Lewes floods of October 2000. Dual-polarisation processing is expected to provide improved estimation of rainfall rates, especially at higher intensities, in terms of clutter removal, attenuation correction and rainfall estimation. In this study, three hydrological models with different mathematical structures were selected to evaluate the impact that dual-polarisation technology could have on operational hydrology and recommendations provided on the further development of the dual-polarisation algorithms in the short term. The preliminary appraisal was focused on the Upper Medway Catchment (south of London, UK) using different precipitation inputs, including raingauge measurements, radar rainfall estimates from single-polarised algorithms (cartesian format) and five different dual-polarisation algorithms (polar format). The influence of the different rainfall inputs on the various hydrological models were compared using a extreme flood event to provide an initial evaluation of the performance of the Thurnham radar. Recommendations for applying dual-polarisation radar to real-time flood forecasting are discussed in detail.
9
Berdnikov, Sergey V., Liudmila V. Dashkevich, Valerii V. Kulygin, Igor V. Sheverdyaev, I. A. Tretyakova, and Natalia A. Yaitskaya. "EX-MARE - FORECASTING SYSTEM OF NATURAL HAZARDS IN THE AZOV SEA REGION." GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY 11, no. 2 (June 28, 2018): 29–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-2-29-45.
Full textAbstract:
The paper presents approach used for the development of the forecasting system of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the region of the Sea of Azov. Due to numerous dangerous extreme events that occurred in the beginning of XXI century the issue of creation such system has become very relevant and important. The forecasting system, named EX-MARE, was started developing in 2014 as a complex of mathematical models. For each type of hydro-meteorological events, the modeling component was designed. The EX-MARE system is based on a scenario approach implied the consideration a variety of possible futures taking into account the existing uncertainty. Accurate extreme events estimation requires automated monitoring systems and longterm database application. In the paper, the detail description of the system components and the data sources is examined. Three case studies about the sea surges, flash flood and ice conditions researches demonstrate the application of the EX-MARE system and the benefits of its using. Further development of the EX-MARE system assumes adding data on exposure and vulnerability to perform the risk assessment, as well as focusing on multi-hazards exploring methodology.
10
Royal Yusibov, Tofiq Samedov, Royal Yusibov, Tofiq Samedov. "FORECAST OF HYDROCARBON RATIOS BASED ON EXTRACTED RESERVES." PAHTEI-Procedings of Azerbaijan High Technical Educational Institutions 17, no. 06 (May 18, 2022): 170–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.36962/pahtei17062022-170.
Full textAbstract:
The article provides an analysis of the forecast of hydrocarbon ratios based on the data extracted. Various methods are used in the technological processes of gas extraction in order to build forecast models of the final gas-condensate yield coefficients. It is important to select the most accurate and reliable models in order to determine the recoverable reserves of gas and condensate fields operated in flood and depletion regimes or to assess the effectiveness of geological and technical measures taken to increase development efficiency. Mathematical modeling methods are widely used for analysis, control of gas and condensate field development and qualitative and quantitative forecasting of its technological parameters. At the same time, long-term operation of gas-condensate fields shows that the application of erolusion modeling methodology, which is one of the most accurate methods for determining the forecast values of recoverable gas reserves for different stages of development, is more appropriate. Keywords: Extracted reserves, hydrocarbon ratios, forecast, regimes, water pressure, gas-condensate fields.
11
Kozytskyi, O. M., S. A. Shevchuk, and I. A. Shevchenko. "MONITORING AND MANAGEMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL RISKS IN THE RIVER BASINS OF UKRAINE." Міжвідомчий тематичний науковий збірник "Меліорація і водне господарство", no. 2 (December 12, 2019): 157–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.31073/mivg201902-206.
Full textAbstract:
Background of the study. Due to the increasing intensity and frequency of catastrophic floods occurrence, one of the most important tasks of the water management of Ukraine is to increase the efficiency of the existing system of flood protection due to the implementation of integrated flood risk management methods based on the assessment of flood hazard levels requirements according to Directive 2007/60/EC. The development of scientific and methodological bases for the assessment and mapping of flood hazard and risk levels, as well as the development of integrated flood risk management plans based on them, is an important and urgent task in Ukraine as an associated EU member.
The purpose of the work is to highlight the main works results, performed at the Institute on the study of patterns of riverbed transformations, the development of strategies for flood risk management and scientific and methodological support of the assessment and mapping of flood hazard and risk, taking into account the nature and the intensity of river bed transformation and exogenous processes in river basins of Ukraine.
Outline of the main material. Systematic research on flood protection issues and river bed evolution in IWPaLR has been conducted since the middle of the last century.
The problems of the dynamics of river bed’s evolutions, ensuring the stability of dams, erosion of the tail water of dam, development of active hydraulic structures and their arrangement in river beds, forecasting river bed evolution, runoffs, development study of permissible (nondestructive) flow velocities for alluvial soils, taking into account the phenomenon of self-patching of the river bed, the dynamic equilibrium of the beds, the typing of the beds of mountain rivers, etc., were studied and solved under the natural conditions and in the hydraulic laboratory of the Institute. Based on the results of theoretical and experimental studies of river bed evolution, a number of methodological provisions on the complex regulation of channel deformations and safe passage of high floods were formulated and published a number of regulatory and methodological documents on the calculation and forecasting of river bed transformations, designing of dams and protection structures.
An important role was given to the issues of regulation and redistribution of floodwater by the system of river reservoirs and replenishment of groundwater reserves.
The methodological recommendations for sampling of river bed deposits and sediments, on the base of the international ISO standards’ requirements and recommendations of have been developed at the Institute, as well as the method of estimation of the river bed transformation’s dynamics, for the discrete and quantitative assessments of river bed deformations and their intensity.
The paper also highlights the main results of work on the implementation of the Flood Directive 2007/60/EC in Ukraine, in particular, the development of a Flood Risk Management Strategy in the Ukrainian Carpathian River basins. In the Strategy declared the latest approaches to flood response, which foresee the abandonment of the current paradigm of "flood protection" to favor integrated flood risk management. It defines national mechanisms of strategic management in the field of flood risk reduction, directions of transboundary cooperation, coordination of works within river basins. For the future development of this Strategy, the paper presents the scientific and methodological bases for a comprehensive assessment of the total levels of flood hazard and flood risk and their mapping on a GIS basis.
Conclusion. In the future, scientific research on integrated flood risk management should focus on the study of patterns of evolution of river bed and development of mathematical models of regulation of channel deformations, improvement of the flood forecasting and prevention methodology based on simulation modeling, as well as the development new management schemes for runoff ‘s regulation.
12
Idier, Déborah, Axel Aurouet, François Bachoc, Audrey Baills, José Betancourt, Fabrice Gamboa, Thierry Klein, et al. "A User-Oriented Local Coastal Flooding Early Warning System Using Metamodelling Techniques." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 9, no. 11 (October 27, 2021): 1191. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse9111191.
Full textAbstract:
Given recent scientific advances, coastal flooding events can be properly modelled. Nevertheless, such models are computationally expensive (requiring many hours), which prevents their use for forecasting and warning. In addition, there is a gap between the model outputs and information actually needed by decision makers. The present work aims to develop and test a method capable of forecasting coastal flood information adapted to users’ needs. The method must be robust and fast and must integrate the complexity of coastal flood processes. The explored solution relies on metamodels, i.e., mathematical functions that precisely and efficiently (within minutes) estimate the results that would provide the numerical model. While the principle of relying on metamodel solutions is not new, the originality of the present work is to tackle and validate the entire process from the identification of user needs to the establishment and validation of the rapid forecast and early warning system (FEWS) while relying on numerical modelling, metamodelling, the development of indicators, and information technologies. The development and validation are performed at the study site of Gâvres (France). This site is subject to wave overtopping, so the numerical phase-resolving SWASH model is used to build the learning dataset required for the metamodel setup. Gaussian process- and random forest classifier-based metamodels are used and post-processed to estimate 14 indicators of interest for FEWS users. These metamodelling and post-processing schemes are implemented in an FEWS prototype, which is employed by local users and exhibits good warning skills during the validation period. Based on this experience, we provide recommendations for the improvement and/or application of this methodology and individual steps to other sites.
13
Kholoptsev, Alexander, Sergei Podporin, and Evgeniy OlKhovik. "Impact of Floods in the Kolyma River Delta on Navigation Conditions in the East Siberian Sea." E3S Web of Conferences 363 (2022): 01004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236301004.
Full textAbstract:
Problem of improving the quality of medium- and long-term forecasting of changes in ice conditions in the Northern Sea Route, and in particular in the east Siberian sea, where one of the methods of selecting waterways is the passage of ships in areas of ice-covered polynya. The hypothesis is verified that during the summer months, such changes may be significantly influenced by the timing of the onset of high water in the Kolyma River delta. Data from the global reanalysis GLORYS12v1 supported by the European Copernicus Marine Service were used as factual material on the ice cover and levels of the East Siberian Sea in the months of May to October 1993-2019. The analysis is based on mathematical models of the NEMO family verified by satellite altimetry data. Using the developed methodology, the dates of abrupt changes in level and sea ice extent on the Kolyma River estuarine seashore have been estimated for selected periods of the year. The study uses statistical methods to confirm the validity of the stated hypothesis for a number of areas of the East Siberian Sea, through which the shipping routes of the Northern Sea Route pass. It has been established that the greatest influence of flood timing on ice conditions and navigation conditions in such areas takes place in July. It is shown that early floods in the Kolyma delta generally lead to improvement of ice conditions, while late floods lead to complication of ice conditions. The identified relationships are recommended for use in forecasting changes in ice conditions. It has been suggested that with further climate warming and shifting of flood dates to earlier dates, the complication of ice conditions due to freezing of the formed polynya is not excluded.
14
PERMINOV, A. V., O. S. ERMOLAEVA, E. V. KUZNETSOVA, and V. V. ILJINICH. "Experience of computer simulation of flood runoff of the Kuban river to the Krasnodar reservoir based on the DWAT model." Prirodoobustrojstvo, no. 4 (2022): 107–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.26897/1997-6011-2022-4-107-113.
Full textAbstract:
The article is dedicated to PC modeling of the maximum water runoff of the Kuban rivers flowing to the Krasnodar reservoir after the storm rains. A mathematical model of the «precipitation-runoff» type – DWAT was used. This model is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for use on rivers with flash floods, based on river survey digital elevation models and storm rain forecasts. A possibility of using proposed approach, the estimated possibility of using DWAT for short-term forecasting of flood inflow to the Krasnodar reservoir based on storm precipitation at predictor meteorological stations, which is tentatively assessed based on the analysis of the dependence of the main elements of floods on the storm rain characteristics. In addition to the digital relief model, the model uses georeferenced layers of data on vegetation, land use types and soils of the catchment area. In general, the article shows the process of entering and processing data into the model. The obtained final simulation results, expressed by the forecast hydrograph, are compared with the observed true values. The forecasted flood graphs correspond suffi ciently to the observed ones and in general the ma ximum water discharges of the forecasted floods obtained using the model under study for previous precipitation are for the most part slightly higher than the observed ones, which is partly explained by the spatial data due to map resolution used. The use of more detailed source data and map resolution may improve the final result.
15
Kholoptsev, Aleksandr V., and Sergey A. Podporin. "IMPACT OF FLOODS IN THE KOLYMA RIVER DELTA ON NAVIGATION CONDITIONS IN THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA." Vestnik Gosudarstvennogo universiteta morskogo i rechnogo flota imeni admirala S. O. Makarova 14, no. 4 (September 13, 2022): 563–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.21821/2309-5180-2022-14-4-563-570.
Full textAbstract:
The problem of improving the quality of medium- and long-term forecasting of changes in the ice situation on the Northern Sea Route, and in particular in the East Siberian Sea, where one of the methods for choosing waterways is the passage of vessels in the areas of flaw polynya, is considered. The hypothesis that in the summer months such changes can be significantly affected by the terms of floods onset in the Kolyma River Delta is tested. The data of the GLORYS12v1 global reanalysis supported by the Copernicus Marine Service are used as factual material on the ice cover and levels of the East Siberian Sea in the months from May to October of 1993-2019. The reanalysis is based on mathematical models of the NEMO family, verified using altimetry data from satellite measurements. Using the developed methodology for the selected periods of the year, the dates of sharp changes in the level and ice cover on the pre-estuary seaside of the Kolyma River are estimated. Using statistical methods, the validity of the stated hypothesis for a number of the East Siberian Sea areas, along which the shipping lanes of the Northern Sea Route pass, is confirmed. It has been established that the greatest influence of the floods terms on the ice situation and navigation conditions in such areas takes place in July. It has been shown that early floods in the Kolyma delta generally lead to an improvement in the ice situation, and late floods lead to its complication. The identified relationships are recommended for use in forecasting changes in ice conditions. The assumption that with further climate warming and a shift in the flood terms to earlier dates, it is possible that the ice conditions will become more complicated due to the freezing of the formed polynya, is made.
16
Guinaldo, Thibault, Simon Munier, Patrick Le Moigne, Aaron Boone, Bertrand Decharme, Margarita Choulga, and Delphine J. Leroux. "Parametrization of a lake water dynamics model MLake in the ISBA-CTRIP land surface system (SURFEX v8.1)." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 3 (March 10, 2021): 1309–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1309-2021.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract. Lakes are of fundamental importance in the Earth system as they support essential environmental and economic services, such as freshwater supply. Streamflow variability and temporal evolution are impacted by the presence of lakes in the river network; therefore, any change in the lake state can induce a modification of the regional hydrological regime. Despite the importance of the impact of lakes on hydrological fluxes and the water balance, a representation of the mass budget is generally not included in climate models and global-scale hydrological modeling platforms. The goal of this study is to introduce a new lake mass module, MLake (Mass-Lake model), into the river-routing model CTRIP to resolve the specific mass balance of open-water bodies. Based on the inherent CTRIP parameters, the development of the non-calibrated MLake model was introduced to examine the influence of such hydrological buffer areas on global-scale river-routing performance. In the current study, an offline evaluation was performed for four river networks using a set of state-of-the-art quality atmospheric forcings and a combination of in situ and satellite measurements for river discharge and lake level observations. The results reveal a general improvement in CTRIP-simulated discharge and its variability, while also generating realistic lake level variations. MLake produces more realistic streamflows both in terms of daily and seasonal correlation. Excluding the specific case of Lake Victoria having low performances, the mean skill score of Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) is 0.41 while the normalized information contribution (NIC) shows a mean improvement of 0.56 (ranging from 0.15 to 0.94). Streamflow results are spatially scale-dependent, with better scores associated with larger lakes and increased sensitivity to the width of the lake outlet. Regarding lake level variations, results indicate a good agreement between observations and simulations with a mean correlation of 0.56 (ranging from 0.07 to 0.92) which is linked to the capability of the model to retrieve seasonal variations. Discrepancies in the results are mainly explained by the anthropization of the selected lakes, which introduces high-frequency variations in both streamflows and lake levels that degraded the scores. Anthropization effects are prevalent in most of the lakes studied, but they are predominant for Lake Victoria and are the main cause for relatively low statistical scores for the Nile River However, results on the Angara and the Neva rivers also depend on the inherent gap of ISBA-CTRIP process representation, which relies on further development such as the partitioned energy budget between the snow and the canopy over a boreal zone. The study is a first step towards a global coupled land system that will help to qualitatively assess the evolution of future global water resources, leading to improvements in flood risk and drought forecasting.
17
Panant, Charoen, and Samakkee Boonyawat. "A Simplified Rainfall-Streamflow Network Model on Multivariate Regression Analysis for Water Level Forecasting in Klong Luang (KGT.19 Station) Sub-watershed, Chon Buri Province, Thailand." Applied Environmental Research, October 17, 2014, 53–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.35762/aer.2014.36.4.6.
Full textAbstract:
A simplifiedrainfall-streamflownetwork model based on multivariate linear regression (MLR) analysishas been proposed. To determine significant coefficients of streamflow network, eleven MLR models were examined. The study’s three objectives were 1) to develop a novel a mathematical model based on MLR analysis for forecasting optimal water levels;2) to determine the most significant coefficient of rainfall-streamflow network among in the area of interest in the vicinity of Klong Luang sub-watershedKGT.19 station; and3) to apply the optimal MLR model forwater level andflood forecasting mapsin Klong Luang Sub-watershed. We used Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remotely Sensed Data (RS) data recorded from Klong Luang (KGT.19 Station) sub-watershed, and Phanat Nikhom, Chonburi, Ban Bueng and Phan Thong districts, in Chonburi Province, Thailand.The findings indicated that the MLR based Model No. 8 is the most applicable and effective. The proposed model also could be applied in water level forecasting, water resource management, flood hazard planning, and flood early warning.