Academic literature on the topic 'Fixed Wage'

We study the importance of wage rigidities for the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Using uniquely rich micro data on Swedish wage negotiations, we isolate periods when the labor market is covered by fixed-wage contracts. Importantly, negotiations are coordinated in time but their seasonal patterns are far from deterministic. Using a two-regime VAR model, we document that monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on production during fixed-wage episodes as compared to the average response. The results do not seem to be driven by the periodic structure, nor the seasonality, of the renegotiation episodes. (JEL E23, E24, E52, J31, J41)

The article considers influence of entrepreneurial experience on the wageemployment wages. Empirical analysis is based on the RLMS-HSE panel data, 2000—2013, with using fixed effects models on the overall sample, five-year- and flexible window. Results show that transition from entrepreneurship to wageemployment leads to penalty of wages. Wage growth rate of former entrepreneurs’ lag behind the wage growth rate of workers without entrepreneurial experience. The size of wage-penalty decreases if the profession remains the same in transition from entrepreneurship to wage-employment.

AbstractWe analyse the correlations between individual and firm fixed effects, and wage and job-duration functions. Our results for large firms suggest that low-wage firms tend to be stable firms, suggesting that lower wages can buy job stability. Furthermore, high-wage workers sort into the stable low-wage firms. Our interpretation is that high-wage workers have a higher wage to insure against job loss and can afford more easily to forgo wages in favour of job stability. This may provide an explanation of the puzzle identified in previous literature that high-wage workers are matched to low-wage firms.

We begin with two uncontroversial hypotheses - firm productivity is expensive to measure and employment entails relationship-specific investments. These assumptions imply that firms would optimally choose fixed-wage contracts, and complement these with bonus pay when measuring employee performance is not too costly. These assumptions imply that under an optimal employment contract hours of work is less responsive, while total compensation is more responsive to shocks under bonus-pay contracts compared to fixed wage contracts. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) where shocks are proxied using the local unemployment rate, we find strong support for these two implications.

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Since 1998 in the Public Administration there are statutory workers ('estatutários') and others hired by the CLT labor regime ('celetistas'). Thisfact occurs due the Constitutional Amendment number 19 , formulated that year, which has changed the article 39 of Brazilian Constitution. It allowed public entities to hire employees under CLT legislation. This situation lasted until 2007 when the Supreme Court of Brazil suspended such modification and so the original understanding of the Constitution was reestablished. This work intends to evaluate the wage differential between statutory and CLT employees by means of an econometric approach. Using a fixed effectsregression we have analyzed the impact of the labor regime upon public workers wages and using the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition we quantified how much of such differential is due the labor regime and how much is due to the individual characteristics (education, tenure and others). There are evidences that CLT workers have in average wages R$ 310.00 lower than statutory. Controlling by occupation we also see a negative prize to CLT worker to all groups except by the High Skilled Workers that have a salary R$ 95.98 higher than the Statutory. Low Skilled Workers show the smallest differential (R$ 12.20) followed by Teachers and Researchers (R$ 85.27) and Technicians (R$ 97.11). The Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the largest part is not explained by endowments differences. The spending with wages and benefits to public employees is one of the main debates in the current scenario of fiscal adjustment facing the relevant increase of Public Debt in the last years. The Brazilian society has a perception that the Government has an excessive amount of workers and furthermore these onesreceive higher wages without a reasonable explanation when compared to similar occupations in private companies. At the end of 2017 the Brazilian Government presented an action plan to reduce the spending with wages and benefits of public employees. Among the proposals there were a decrease in the initial salary of public service and an increase in the public pension plan contribution.
Desde o ano de 1998 coexistem na Administração Direta, Autarquias e Fundações Públicas, funcionários públicos estatutários e 'celetistas'. Esta situação decorre da Emenda 19, a qual alterou o artigo 39 da Constituição e permitiu que estas entidades contratassem funcionários pela CLT. Essa situação perdurou até o ano de 2007, quando o Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF)suspendeu liminarmente (ADI 2135) a nova redação e dessa forma restaurou a situação original, válida atualmente. Este trabalho se propõe a medir a diferença no salário entre servidores públicos estatutários e celetistas por meio de uma abordagem econométrica. Utilizando uma regressão de efeitos fixos foi analisado o impacto do regime de trabalho sobre o salário dos servidores e por meio da decomposição de Oaxaca-Blinder estimou-se quanto desta diferença decorre do regime de trabalho e quanto se deve às características dos indivíduos de cada grupo (escolaridade, experiência e outros). Há indícios de que os celetistas recebem um salário R$ 310.00 menor do que seus pares estatutários. Controlando os efeitos de cada profissão há um diferencial negativo para todas os celetistas exceto para os profissionais de alta qualificação os quais possuem um salário R$ 95.98 maior do que os estatutários. Com relação aos outros grupos, os profissionais de baixa qualificação apresentam o menor diferencial de salários (R$ 12.20) seguido por professores e pesquisadores (R$ 85.27) e técnicos (R$ 97.11). Na decomposição do diferencial a maior parte não decorre de diferenças nas características dos indivíduos de cada grupo. O impacto dos salários e benefícios de funcionários públicos sobre as contas públicas é um dos principais pontos debatidos dentre as propostas que englobam o plano de ajuste fiscal do Governo Brasileiro. A percepção atual da sociedade é que além do governo contar com um contingente significativo de servidores públicos, estes recebem maiores salários quando comparados a trabalhadores em atividades semelhantes na iniciativa privada. Nesse contexto o governo federal apresentou no final de 2017 uma série de medidas para adequação dos gastos com folha de pagamento de servidores públicos, dentre elas a redução do salário inicial e elevação da contribuição previdenciária destes trabalhadores.

Abstract  Course: NAA305 Bachelor Thesis in Economics 15 ECTS  University: Mälardalen University, School of Business, Society and Engineering, Västerås  Title: The effects of immigration on the income of native-born workers:  Evidence from Sweden Author: Arnold Schanzer-Larsen  Supervisor: Johan Lindén  Problem: Sweden has experienced a lot of immigration, and the phenomenon has received a great deal of attention in the public and political debate. There is, among other things, fear that immigration could be harmful for the labor market outcome of the receiving country. Researchers from a variety of countries have tried to address this issue by estimating the effect of immigration on the native wage of the receiving country. The results have varied strongly and no universal conclusion can be drawn. For what can be said about Sweden, there is no paper (of our knowledge) that has done any similar estimates. For that reason, it is of great importance that there is some research which could bring empirical evidence and shed light on the debate.  Purpose of the Research: The aim of the thesis is to quantitatively measure immigrations effect on the wage of native workers in Sweden. Methodology:  Conducting a panel study, observation of the average native income from 290 municipalities over 2011-2019 was collected. The effect was estimated using OLS regression technique and a fixed effect model.  Conclusion: From a 10% increase in the share of foreign-born within a municipality, led on average to a 2.89% increase in the native average income in that municipality.  Keywords: Immigration, Income, Wage, Unemployment rate, Panel study, Fixed effect model, Native, Labor market, The equilibrium model, Human capital, Skill-composition

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions l'effet de l'auto-sélection des salariés sur l'estimation de la productivité, des différentiels de salaires et de qualité du travail entre les secteurs. Afin de prendre en compte l'auto-sélection des employés dans l'estimation des différentiels le long de la distribution des salaires, nous construisons une approche innovante composée de trois caractéristiques: (i) nous nous intéressons aux effets par quantile inconditionnel; (ii) nous incorporons des effets fixes spécifiques à chaque quantile; (iii) nous proposons une méthode de correction de l'incidental parameter bias. Cette approche permet de produire des résultats exploitables en terme de politiques publiques. Nous montrons dans un premier temps que la sélection positive dans le secteur public tend à se dégrader. Elle disparaît totalement en haut de la distribution des salaires dans la période récente, suggérant un effet négatif du gel des salaires nominaux. Dans notre deuxième article, nous mettons en évidence une sélection négative substantielle dans le secteur informel concernant les hommes et les bas salaires. Cette sélection négative apparaît à la suite de la Grande Récession, indiquant une réallocation des salariés les moins productifs vers le secteur informel. Dans le dernier article, nous montrons pour la période récente que le niveau de productivité des SCOP n'est pas significativement différent de celui des autres entreprises. Nous confirmons l'hypothèse selon laquelle les motivations non-pécunières des employés expliquent une partie importante de la productivité des SCOP dans deux des secteurs étudiés (secteur manufacturier et secteur des transports)
This PhD thesis studies the effect of workers' self-selection when estimating productivity, wages and job quality differentials between sectors. In order to account for the self-selection of employees in the estimation of differentials along the wage distribution, we develop an innovative approach comprising three features: (i) we rely on unconditional quantile effects ; (ii) we incorporate quantile-specific fixed effects; (iii) we suggest a treatment of the incidental parameter bias. This method allows to provide public policies relevant comparisons. We show first that the positive selection into public jobs tends to decline. It totally disappears among top earners in the recent period, suggesting the detrimental effect of nominal wage freeze. In the second paper, we unveil that there is a substantial negative selection into informal salary work for men on average and particularly at low wages. It arises in the wake of the Great Recession, pointing to a shakeout of less productive workers in the formal sector. In the last paper, we account for employees' non-pecuniary motives in our comparison of the productivity of labour-managed firms and other for-profits company. We confirm for the recent period and on a large scale that the SCOP total factor productivity level is not significantly different from the other firms'. We find also results that support the hypothesis that employees non-pecuniary motives accounts for a substantial part of French labour-managed firms productivity in two of the three industries studied (manufacturing and transports)

This thesis deals with the nonlinear interaction of water waves with fixed and floating bodies. The case of a two-dimensional fixed surface body is first investigated using a newly developed linear and second-order boundary element model, the fully nonlinear model of Hague & Swan (2009) and new experimental observations. In this case, second-order freely propagating harmonics arising due to the wave-structure interaction are identified and quantified. Subsequently, a two- dimensional floating body is investigated, undergoing one or two motion modes, and comparisons with the fixed body case are made. These observations confirm that the wave-vessel interactions again lead to the generation of freely propagating nonlinear wave harmonics and that the magnitude of these components varies significantly for bodies with different hydrodynamic properties. Building on the physical understanding achieved from the two-dimensional study, the case of a three-dimensional floating body is considered. This concerns the interaction with both regular waves, propagating at varying angles of wave incidence, and directional wave groups. In both cases the effects of wave-vessel interactions on the surface profile are identified. Finally, it is shown that the nonlinear wave-vessel interactions identified previously can, after interacting with the incoming wave field, lead to unexpected wave impacts on the vessel. As a result, it is concluded that the occurrence of wave impacts, particularly on the side shell of a vessel, cannot be assessed on the basis of the incident waves alone.

A broadband fixed-beam leaky-wave antenna is presented in this thesis. The proposed antenna consists of a graded dielectric superstrate placed on top of a closely-spaced thin slot array. The graded dielectric superstrate is designed using transformation electromagnetics to couple the radiation from underlying leaky slot-line into free space. Wave propagation in graded dielectric media, properties of leaky-wave antennas, and conformal transformation electromagnetics have been explored prior to the design. The behaviour of the proposed antenna has been subsequently improved through developing a technique that exploits transformation electromagnetics. The technique adjusts the discrepancy in phase produced as a result of coordinate stretching at the boundary of transformed medium. Full-wave simulations are carried out to demonstrate the performance of the leaky-wave antenna. Broadband radiation characteristics are achieved from the antenna with peak radiation around 33⁰, 30% side-lobe level, 53% back-lobe level, 30.6⁰ beamwidth, and 11.8 directivity. Such performance makes the antenna suitable for planar applications where a fixed oblique beam is required over a broad bandwidth.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Engineering, School of (Okanagan)
Graduate

AbstractThe early 1990s were a crucial turning point in Zimbabwe. Not only was the Structural Adjustment Program (ESAP) initiated in 1990, but the country was also hit with a major drought in 1991/92. We know that the urban poor were (and continue to be) disproportionately impacted by wage cuts, lay-offs and changes to food prices, especially since data from the period indicate that the poor spent a third to twice as much of their expenditures on food and health care than the non-poor. This chapter explores the food security situation of 100 lodgers (private renters) in the medium-sized city of Gweru, located halfway between Harare and Bulawayo. Based on data from diverse types of lodging across all density areas, it discusses the linkages between strength of rural ties, modes of livelihood, household composition, and fixed expenses such as rent and food security.

Population is an important factor in development of a country. As a constraint, not only the size of the population is important but also its quality in the development process. Women’s health is considered all over the world and the data about this aspect is published by the World Health Organization annually. Among others maternal mortality rate is one of the major problems affecting women’s health and population. Everyday 830 women die due to the problems related to pregnancy and childbirth in the world. While this number is relatively lower in the developed countries, it is higher in the underdeveloped and developing countries. In addition, the maternal mortality rate in the Caucasus and Central Asia ranks in the worst third in the world. In the Kyrgyz Republic, this rate is 82.083333 per 10000 live births which is the worst in the region. Therefore, it is among one of the countries where the maternal mortality should be reduced in the framework of the Millennium Development Goals. In this study, the determinants of maternal mortality rate are analyzed in the Kyrgyz Republic regions during 2000-2015 by using static panel data methods fixed effects and random effects. The findings show that there are significant decreasing effects of GDP, number of assistant physicians, births by skilled staff, improved sanitation facilities, and gender wage equality, there are significant increasing effects of health expenditures, medical facilities, and poverty among women on the maternal mortality.

Abstract Generally, numerous marine and offshore structures are composed of a number of modules which introduce narrow gaps between the multi-modules arranged side by side. The interaction between water waves and floating structures excites complex wave runup in the gaps and wave forces on the adjacent modules. In this study, free surface oscillations in twin narrow gaps between identical floating rectangular boxes are investigated by establishing a 2D viscous flow numerical wave tank based on a Constrained Interpolation Profile (CIP) method. The Tangent of Hyperbola for INterface Capturing (THINC) method is employed to capture the free surface. The rigid floating bodies are treated by a Virtual Particle Method (VPM). The incident waves are generated by an internal wave maker. For the fixed module cases, the computational results of wave height in narrow gaps are found in good coincidence with the available experimental measurements, especially for the resonant frequencies. The wave forces on the floating bodies are calculated numerically. The characteristic response of wave forces on the leading and rear bodies are consistent with the free surface elevations in the corresponding narrow gaps. With shallow draft, the gap resonance occurs at higher wave number.

This paper reports on a two-tiered experiment designed to separately identify the selection and effort margins of pay-for-performance (P4P). At the recruitment stage, teacher labor markets were randomly assigned to a pay-for-percentile or fixed-wage contract. Once recruits were placed, an unexpected, incentive-compatible, school-level re-randomization was performed, so that some teachers who applied for a fixed-wage contract ended up being paid by P4P, and vice versa. By the second year of the study, the within-year effort effect of P4P was 0.16 standard deviations of pupil learning, with the total effect rising to 0.20 standard deviations after allowing for selection.

In 2014, Colombia implemented a policy that added flexibilization to labor contracts for part-time workers that reduced the quasi-fixed costs of employing formal workers. We find that the reform increased the probability of entering the formal sector within the targeted population: low-wage, part-time workers. We use administrative employer-employee matched data and leverage variation across cities and industries in demand for part-time work before the reform. We find that, after the tax reform, the change in the total number of formal workers is 6 percentage points higher at firms that use the new contracts relative to their counterparts that choose not to hire low-wage, formal, part-time workers under the new tax form. Mean daily wages temporarily declined after the reform.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor to unexpectedly high inflation in the fourth quarter. Price adjustments for fuels and certain utilities can explain the acceleration in inflation for regulated items, which was more significant than anticipated. Prices in the CPI for goods excluding food and regulated items also rose more than expected. This was partly due to a smaller effect on prices from the national government’s VAT-free day than anticipated by the technical staff and more persistent external pressures, including via peso depreciation. By contrast, the CPI for services excluding food and regulated items accelerated less than expected, partly reflecting strong competition in the communications sector. This was the only major CPI basket for which prices increased below the target inflation rate. The technical staff revised its inflation forecast upward in response to certain external shocks (prices, costs, and depreciation) and domestic shocks (e.g., on meat products) that were stronger and more persistent than anticipated in the previous report. Observed inflation and a real increase in the legal minimum wage also exceeded expectations, which would boost inflation by affecting price indexation, labor costs, and inflation expectations. The technical staff now expects year-end headline inflation of 4.3% in 2022 and 3.4% in 2023; core inflation is projected to be 4.5% and 3.6%, respectively. These forecasts consider the lapse of certain price relief measures associated with the COVID-19 health emergency, which would contribute to temporarily keeping inflation above the target on the forecast horizon. It is important to note that these estimates continue to contain a significant degree of uncertainty, mainly related to the development of external and domestic supply shocks and their ultimate effects on prices. Other contributing factors include high price volatility and measurement uncertainty related to the extension of Colombia’s health emergency and tax relief measures (such as the VAT-free days) associated with the Social Investment Law (Ley de Inversión Social). The as-yet uncertain magnitude of the effects of a recent real increase in the legal minimum wage (that was high by historical standards) and high observed and expected inflation, are additional factors weighing on the overall uncertainty of the estimates in this report. The size of excess productive capacity remaining in the economy and the degree to which it is closing are also uncertain, as the evolution of the pandemic continues to represent a significant forecast risk. margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. The technical staff revised its GDP growth projection for 2022 from 4.7% to 4.3% (Graph 1.3). This revision accounts for the likelihood that a larger portion of the recent positive dynamic in private consumption would be transitory than previously expected. This estimate also contemplates less dynamic investment behavior than forecast in the previous report amid less favorable financial conditions and a highly uncertain investment environment. Third-quarter GDP growth (12.9%), which was similar to projections from the October report, and the fourth-quarter growth forecast (8.7%) reflect a positive consumption trend, which has been revised upward. This dynamic has been driven by both public and private spending. Investment growth, meanwhile, has been weaker than forecast. Available fourth-quarter data suggest that consumption spending for the period would have exceeded estimates from October, thanks to three consecutive months that included VAT-free days, a relatively low COVID-19 caseload, and mobility indicators similar to their pre-pandemic levels. By contrast, the most recently available figures on new housing developments and machinery and equipment imports suggest that investment, while continuing to rise, is growing at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. The trade deficit is expected to have widened, as imports would have grown at a high level and outpaced exports. Given the above, the technical staff now expects fourth-quarter economic growth of 8.7%, with overall growth for 2021 of 9.9%. Several factors should continue to contribute to output recovery in 2022, though some of these may be less significant than previously forecast. International financial conditions are expected to be less favorable, though external demand should continue to recover and terms of trade continue to increase amid higher projected oil prices. Lower unemployment rates and subsequent positive effects on household income, despite increased inflation, would also boost output recovery, as would progress in the national vaccination campaign. The technical staff expects that the conditions that have favored recent high levels of consumption would be, in large part, transitory. Consumption spending is expected to grow at a slower rate in 2022. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) would continue to recover, approaching its pre-pandemic level, though at a slower rate than anticipated in the previous report. This would be due to lower observed GFCF levels and the potential impact of political and fiscal uncertainty. Meanwhile, the policy interest rate would be less expansionary as the process of monetary policy normalization continues. Given the above, growth in 2022 is forecast to decelerate to 4.3% (previously 4.7%). In 2023, that figure (3.1%) is projected to converge to levels closer to the potential growth rate. In this case, excess productive capacity would be expected to tighten at a similar rate as projected in the previous report. The trade deficit would tighten more than previously projected on the forecast horizon, due to expectations of an improved export dynamic and moderation in imports. The growth forecast for 2022 considers a low basis of comparison from the first half of 2021. However, there remain significant downside risks to this forecast. The current projection does not, for example, account for any additional effects on economic activity resulting from further waves of COVID-19. High private consumption levels, which have already surpassed pre-pandemic levels by a large margin, could be less dynamic than expected. And the normalization of monetary policy in the United States could come more quickly than projected in this report, which could negatively affect international financing costs. Finally, there remains a significant degree of uncertainty related to the duration of supply chocks and the degree to which macroeconomic and political conditions could negatively affect the recovery in investment. External demand for Colombian goods and services should continue to recover amid significant global inflation pressures, high oil prices, and less favorable international financial conditions than those estimated in October. Economic activity among Colombia’s major trade partners recovered in 2021 amid countries reopening and ample international liquidity. However, that growth has been somewhat restricted by global supply chain disruptions and new outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff has revised its growth forecast for Colombia’s main trade partners from 6.3% to 6.9% for 2021, and from 3.4% to 3.3% for 2022; trade partner economies are expected to grow 2.6% in 2023. Colombia’s annual terms of trade increased in 2021, largely on higher oil, coffee, and coal prices. This improvement came despite increased prices for goods and services imports. The expected oil price trajectory has been revised upward, partly to supply restrictions and lagging investment in the sector that would offset reduced growth forecasts in some major economies. Elevated freight and raw materials costs and supply chain disruptions continue to affect global goods production, and have led to increases in global prices. Coupled with the recovery in global demand, this has put upward pressure on external inflation. Several emerging market economies have continued to normalize monetary policy in this context. Meanwhile, in the United States, the Federal Reserve has anticipated an end to its asset buying program. U.S. inflation in December (7.0%) was again surprisingly high and market average inflation forecasts for 2022 have increased. The Fed is expected to increase its policy rate during the first quarter of 2022, with quarterly increases anticipated over the rest of the year. For its part, Colombia’s sovereign risk premium has increased and is forecast to remain on a higher path, to levels above the 15-year-average, on the forecast horizon. This would be partly due to the effects of a less expansionary monetary policy in the United States and the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia. Given the above, international financial conditions are projected to be less favorable than anticipated in the October report. The increase in Colombia’s external financing costs could be more significant if upward pressures on inflation in the United States persist and monetary policy is normalized more quickly than contemplated in this report. As detailed in Section 2.3, uncertainty surrounding international financial conditions continues to be unusually high. Along with other considerations, recent concerns over the potential effects of new COVID-19 variants, the persistence of global supply chain disruptions, energy crises in certain countries, growing geopolitical tensions, and a more significant deceleration in China are all factors underlying this uncertainty. The changing macroeconomic environment toward greater inflation and unanchoring risks on inflation expectations imply a reduction in the space available for monetary policy stimulus. Recovery in domestic demand and a reduction in excess productive capacity have come in line with the technical staff’s expectations from the October report. Some upside risks to inflation have materialized, while medium-term inflation expectations have increased and are above the 3% target. Monetary policy remains expansionary. Significant global inflationary pressures and the unexpected increase in the CPI in December point to more persistent effects from recent supply shocks. Core inflation is trending upward, but remains below the 3% target. Headline and core inflation projections have increased on the forecast horizon and are above the target rate through the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the expected dynamism of domestic demand would be in line with low levels of excess productive capacity. An accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances in Colombia and the increased likelihood of a faster normalization of monetary policy in the United States would put upward pressure on sovereign risk perceptions in a more persistent manner, with implications for the exchange rate and the natural rate of interest. Persistent disruptions to international supply chains, a high real increase in the legal minimum wage, and the indexation of various baskets in the CPI to higher inflation rates could affect price expectations and push inflation above the target more persistently. These factors suggest that the space to maintain monetary stimulus has continued to diminish, though monetary policy remains expansionary. 1.2 Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s board of directors (BDBR) in its meetings in December 2021 and January 2022 voted to continue normalizing monetary policy. The BDBR voted by a majority in these two meetings to increase the benchmark interest rate by 50 and 100 basis points, respectively, bringing the policy rate to 4.0%.