Academic literature on the topic 'Fiscal variables'
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Journal articles on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Díaz, Álvaro, Henry Laverde, and John Jairo Gómez. "Choques de política fiscal y sus efectos dinámicos sobre la actividad económica y la deuda pública 1990-2007." Revista CIFE: Lecturas de Economía Social 11, no. 15 (December 22, 2009): 123. http://dx.doi.org/10.15332/s2248-4914.2009.0015.07.
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El presente documento busca evidencia de los efectos dinámicos de la política fiscal colombiana sobre variables como PIB real, precios y tasas de interés, teniendo en cuenta de manera explícita el efecto que tiene la deuda sobre las variables fiscales, vía restricción presupuestaria intertemporal del gobierno. Para tal fin, se emplea un modelo VAR estructural (SVAR), utilizando datos trimestrales durante el período 1990:2-2007:1, mediante el cual se identifican claramente choques exógenos sobre las variables fiscales; asimismo, se estiman los efectos de política fiscal sobre las variables a través de las funciones impulso-respuesta. La incidencia de la deuda sobre las variables fiscales se estima en dos modelos: un modelo SVAR base, en el cual se omite el efecto de la deuda sobre las variables fiscales y otro en el cual se incluye explícitamente, con el ánimo de “rastrear” los efectos dinámicos sobre estas variables.
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Ologbenla, Patrick. "Determinants of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 16, no. 2 (April 8, 2019): 1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.16(2).2019.01.
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The study investigated the factors that determine fiscal behavior in Nigeria. The vulnerability of fiscal policy framework in Nigeria to different shocks and the attendant effects on the behavior of fiscal policy are parts of the reasons that prompted this research work. Annual data between 1980 and 2015 on core fiscal variables such as government revenue, government expenditure, fiscal balance, public debt, as well as other variables such as oil price, exchange rate, and inflation rate commodity price among others, are used. The Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag ARDL estimating technique is used to analyze both the long-run and short-run effects of these variables on fiscal behavior in Nigeria. Findings from the study show that fiscal policy in Nigeria is highly vulnerable to shocks from these variables mostly in the short run. Notwithstanding, variables like government revenue, government expenditure, regime of administration, oil price and commodity price volatilities all have sustained effects till the long-run periods. It was discovered that oil price movements is not the only external factor that has pronounced effects on fiscal behavior, but commodity prices volatility generally constitutes an important influential factor in determination of fiscal policy behavior in Nigeria.
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Borkakati, Santosh, and Singh Gyanendra. "Fiscal responsibility law and subnational finance in India: An analysis of Assam's fiscal scenario." Ekonomski horizonti 23, no. 1 (2021): 71–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/ekonhor2101071b.
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Fiscal responsibility law has become an important instrument for better fiscal management and ensuring fiscal discipline, particularly so in the federal countries where their subnational governments often indulge in fiscal indiscipline. In 2003, India adopted the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act for rule-based fiscal discipline, and the states of India were also asked to adopt their own fiscal rule legislation in line with the legislation adopted by the central government. As a fiscally weak Indian state, Assam enacted the Assam Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (AFRBM) Act in 2005 for better fiscal management. The paper attempts to examine the impact of the AFRBM Act on the fiscal performance of the state by analyzing the dynamics of the fiscal variables in the pre and post-AFRBM Act periods. The study finds that the state has improved its fiscal condition after the introduction of the AFRBM Act, even though it has remained prone to fiscal shocks.
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Burriel, Pablo, Francisco De Castro, Daniel Garrote, Esther Gordo, Joan Paredes, and Javier J. Pérez. "Multiplicadores fiscales en la zona euro." Revista de Economía y Estadística 48, no. 2 (December 1, 2010): 7–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.55444/2451.7321.2010.v48.n2.4105.
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Por medio de un modelo VAR estructural lineal estándar, se analiza lamagnitud y el signo de los multiplicadores fiscales para la zona euro,utilizando una base de datos trimestrales de variables fiscales para el período1981-2007 recientemente disponible. Desde una perspectiva política, elanálisis de los multiplicadores fiscales en "tiempos normales" proporcionainformación detallada sobre el impacto tanto de medidas de estímulo fiscal ymedidas de consolidación fiscal, a condición de que los períodos "buenos" y"malos" sean en promedio similares.
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Stadelmann, David, and Steve Billon. "Capitalisation of Fiscal Variables and Land Scarcity." Urban Studies 49, no. 7 (August 17, 2011): 1571–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098011415433.
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Eromosele, Harrison Ogbeide, and David Umoru. "DO FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES COOPERATE OR CONFLICT WITH EACH OTHER IN NIGERIAN ECONOMY?" SRIWIJAYA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF DYNAMIC ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS 3, no. 1 (March 26, 2019): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.29259/sijdeb.v3i1.15-30.
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The determination for this study was to ascertain if fiscal and monetary policies are cooperating or rather conflicting with each other in Nigerian economy. Government disbursement and growth of money stock were used to denote fiscal and monetary policy variables. Two reduced form equations of monetary and fiscal policies were specified from underlying structural model. This yielded fourteen RF parameters in contrast to eleven structural parameters and so we had system of over-identification. These prompted use of IV estimators such as GMM and 3SLS. Estimates show similar findings for both estimators as we found evidence that fiscal policy does not respond favourably to monetary policy as monetary policy was found to have an insignificant effect on the fiscal policy. More so, fiscal policy does not respond to lag effect of monetary policy. Relatively, monetary policy responds favourably to fiscal policy. The lag effect of money supply was also found to have a significant impact on money supply. Empirical finding so upholds that Nigerian economy is fiscally overriding notwithstanding money being an integral part of all macroeconomic variables. Significance of lag effects of both fiscal and monetary policy is reflection that implementation process of both policies is excessively time overshadowing. Consequently, there is need for building well-organized units of fiscal and monetary authorities that can accelerate implementation process of these policies.
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Laverde, Henry. "Efectividad de la política fiscal sobre la producción y la inequidad en Colombia: 1990-2006." Equidad y Desarrollo, no. 13 (January 28, 2010): 65–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.19052/ed.207.
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Este documento tiene como objetivo identificar los efectos dinámicos de la política fiscal sobre la producción y la distribución del ingreso en Colombia para el periodo 1990-2006. Se pretende indagar sobre la efectividad de la política fiscal en términos de la magnitud y longitud de los multiplicadores fiscales sobre estas dos variables. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo VAR con información trimestral de gastos e impuestos del gobierno nacional, PIB real y el coeficiente Gini. Los resultados encontrados sugieren la escasa efectividad de la política fiscal para reducir la inequidad del ingreso, dada la baja magnitud de los multiplicadores fiscales y su corta longitud.
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Khamdana, Abdillah. "Pengaruh Desentralisasi Fiskal Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Daerah di Indonesia, 2008 – 2012." Indonesian Treasury Review Jurnal Perbendaharaan Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik 1, no. 1 (June 30, 2016): 23–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v1i1.59.
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This study aims to analyze the effect of fiscal decentralization on the economic growth in Indonesian provinces. The analysis of fiscal decentralization used three indicators, i.e. revenue, expenditure, and autonomy, added by control variables that consists of population growth, ratio of domestic investment to GDP, and regional inflation rate. This study used panel data of 33 provinces in Indonesia from the period of 2008-2012 with Random Effect Model (REM) method. The results show that fiscal decentralization has been proven not significantly increase the economic growth of the provinces. Therefore, reconsidering fiscal policy related to regional planning and budgeting, and determining development priority scale are needed. Consequently, it is necessary to strengthen the capacity and capability of regional public officials in fiscal and public policy matters. . ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi di Indonesia. Analisis desentralisasi fiskal menggunakan indikator pendapatan, indikator belanja, dan indikator otonomi serta menggunakan variabel pengendali yang terdiri dari pertumbuhan populasi, rasio investasi domestik terhadap PDRB, dan tingkat inflasi daerah. Studi ini menggunakan data panel 33 provinsi di Indonesia periode 2008–2012 dengan metode Random Effect Model (REM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa desentralisasi fiskal tidak terbukti signifikan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi. Atas dasar hal tersebut, diperlukan peninjauan kembali kebijakan fiskal daerah terkait perencanaan dan penganggaran, serta penetapan skala prioritas pembangunan daerah. Dirasa perlu pula adanya upaya penguatan kapasitas dan kapabilitas aparatur daerah di bidang kebijakan fiskal dan kebijakan publik.
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Uddin, Mian Nasir, Muhammad Tariq, and Saleem Khan. "A cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan." Journl of Applied Economics and Business Studies 2, no. 1 (December 30, 2018): 37–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.34260/jaebs.214.
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This paper estimates the short and long run association between selected macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit in Pakistan for the period of 1985 to 2016. Macroeconomic variables such as exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation have strong implications for the fiscal deficit. This study checks the data for stationarity using the Augmented Dickey Fuller test. Johansen Co-integration test and Vector Error Correction Method are used to investigate both the short and long run relationships. Results indicated the existence of both short run and long run relationship between the macroeconomic variables and fiscal deficit. The findings of the study revealed that exports, exchange rate, GDP per capita, inflation, gross capital formation are important determinants of fiscal deficit in Pakistan. The study suggested that the government may focus on these factors to overcome fiscal deficit in Pakistan.
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Bernasconi, Michele, Oliver Kirchkamp, and Paolo Paruolo. "Do fiscal variables affect fiscal expectations? Experiments with real world and lab data." Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 70, no. 1-2 (May 2009): 253–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2008.11.002.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Badinger, Harald, and Wolf Heinrich Reuter. "Determinants of fiscal rules." Taylor & Francis, 2017. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5478/1/Manuscript.pdf.
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This paper empirically assesses determinants of countries' fiscal rules suggested by the political
science, sociology, and economics literature. We find several of these variables to be related to
the stringency of fiscal rules, providing indirect evidence for the relevance of governments' deficit
bias. These determinants may also serve as instruments in models with (endogenous) fiscal rules
as explanatory variable.
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Melina, Giovanni. "Macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy." Doctoral thesis, Università degli Studi di Salerno, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10556/121.
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2008-2009This thesis investigates the macroeconomics e ects of scal policy from a theoretical and empirical perspective. The rst part of the thesis surveys recent theoretical and empirical studies in the related literature. The analysis shows that while consensus has emerged on the positive e ect that an expansionary scal policy has on output and hours worked, no widespread consensus exists on the e ects that such a policy delivers to private consumption, real wages and investment. While in standard RBC models the negative wealth e ect on households' lifetime resource constraint prevails, in more or less articulated new-Keynesian models a crowding-in e ect of consumption and an increase in wages is made possible also under plausible calibrations. While early empirical contributions gave credit to the standard neoclassical predictions, the most recent econometric applications, generally making use of structural VARs, have supported and in many cases have inspired the latest new-Keynesian claims. Next, this work applies graphical modelling theory to identify scal policy shocks in SVAR models of the US economy. Unlike other econometric approaches { which achieve identi cation by relying on potentially contentious a priori assumptions { graphical modelling is a data based tool. Our results are in line with Keynesian theoretical models, being also quantitatively similar to those obtained in the recent SVAR literature a la Blanchard and Perotti (2002), and contrast with neoclassical real business cycle predictions. Stability checks con rm that our ndings are not driven by sample selection. In its nal part, the thesis empirically explores the information content of a large set of scal indicators for US real output growth and in ation. We provide evidence that uctuations in certain scal variables contain valuable information to predict uctuations in output and prices. The distinction between federal and state-local scal indicators yields useful insights and helps de ne a new set of stylized facts for US macroeconomic conditions. First, we nd that variations in state-local indirect taxes as well as state government surplus or de cit help predict output growth. Next, the federal counterparts of these indicators contain valuable information for in ation. Finally, state-local expenditures help predict US in ation. A set of formal and informal stability tests con rm that these relationships are stable. The scal indicators in questions are also among theones that yield the best in-sample and out-of-sample performances.
VIII n.s.
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Gilliam, Sandra Lee 1952. "Development resource and fiscal variables utilizing Differentiated Group Professional Practice project data." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/278080.
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This study had two purposes: (1) to formulate and test for sensitivity and comparability of Resource variables based on data collected across multiple sites; (2) to formulate and test for sensitivity and comparability of Fiscal variables based upon data collected across multiple sites. This exploratory descriptive study utilized data collected during the Differentiated Group Professional Practice project. Global analysis was utilized in creation of nurse Resource and Fiscal variables. Correlational statistics were utilized to evaluate performance of Resource and Fiscal variables within the project model. The Professional Practice index of Autonomy demonstrated a positive relationship with the nurse Resource variables of Retention and Stability. Increases in Professional Practice indices demonstrated negative relationships with Fiscal variables. Satisfaction demonstrated relationship to Resource or Fiscal variables.
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Billon, Steve. "Capitalization of local fiscal variables into house prices : theory and new empirical evidences." Rennes 1, 2011. http://www.theses.fr/2011REN1G012.
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Cette thèse analyse la dynamique spatiale et temporelle de la capitalisation des variables fiscales locales (impôts et dépenses publiques) dans les valeurs immobilières des communes du Canton de Zurich. Bien que la littérature ait maintes fois mis en évidence le phénomène de capitalisation, la question de son ampleur ainsi que son interprétation reste ouverte. Bon nombre d'analyses interprètent la capitalisation comme un test de l'hypothèse de Tiebout et associe sa présence à une fourniture Pareto-optimale des biens publics. Cependant, une partie de la littérature considère que la présence de capitalisation signifie au contraire que les collectivités locales n'ont pas atteint un équilibre de Tiebout. Par ailleurs, cette thèse contribue au débat sur la persistance de la capitalisation en estimant le changement du taux de capitalisation des variables fiscales en réaction à des différences d'offre immobilière selon la situation de la commune dans l'agglomération Zurichoise et à travers le temps. Ainsi, le taux de capitalisation devrait être plus faible dans les collectivités disposant d'une plus grande quantité de terre disponible et devrait décroître à travers le temps, à mesure que l'offre immobilière s'ajuste par le biais de nouvelles constructions dans les communes attractives. Les résultats indiquent cependant à l'inverse de la théorie une persistance de la capitalisation fiscale à la fois sur l'ensemble de l'agglomération Zurichoise et à travers le temps. Ces résultats soulignent l'importance de l'utilisation du zonage par les autorités locales, qui rendent rigides l'offre immobilière et favorise le phénomène de capitalisationThis thesis analyzes the dynamic of fiscal capitalization across space and over time in the Canton of Zurich. While the literature provides a profusion of evidence on capitalization, there is still a controversy on the extent to which local fiscal variables capitalize into house values and on the appropriate interpretation one must have with respect to the Tiebout hypothesis. The outcome of a significiant degree of tax and public expenditures capitalization is often interpreted as a test of the Tiebout hypothesis and associated with a Pareto efficient provision of local public goods. Some authors criticize this view and argue that capitalization of local fiscal variables does not describe a full Tiebout equilibrium. Fiscal capitalization results from scarcity of land that prevents households from moving toward communities with favorable tax-expenditure packages. While it has been raised in the 70's, the question of the persistence of capitalization has not received a definitive answer. This thesis aims to contribute to this debate. We estimate the change of the capitalization rate in response to housing supply differences across space and over time. The capitalization rate should be lower in communities with higher level of available land for construction and should decrease over time, as new constructions occur in attractive communities. Overall, our estimation seems to indicate a persistence of tax and public expenditures capitalization both across space and over time. These results are consistent with the intensive use of zoning regulations at the local level
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Klyvienė, Violeta. "Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia." Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2014. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2014~D_20141010_115047-23680.
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The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive mode (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, public investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Calderón, Salinas Brillic Paola, Torres Ana Natalia Navarrete, and Castillo Diana Gabriela Ochoa. "Evaluación de las posiciones tributarias respecto a la deducción de la depreciación de maquinarias y equipos devaluados en la industria de alimentos." Bachelor's thesis, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas (UPC), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10757/622187.
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El presente trabajo de suficiencia profesional tiene como objetivo evaluar las posiciones tributarias y establecer aquella cuya exposición de motivos se encuentre sustentada en la legislación fiscal vigente, y respalde a las empresas de la industria de alimentos ante una posible fiscalización de la Administración Tributaria (Sunat), en la cual se cuestione la deducción de la depreciación de maquinarias y equipos, que por adopción NIIF sufrieron una disminución en sus costos históricos. Este hecho genera perjuicios económicos de origen tributario a las empresas del país, en especial a las empresas de la industria de alimentos, afectando su situación económica y fiscal en su calidad de contribuyentes, ya que en su mayoría estas maquinarias no han terminado de depreciarse. Por tal razón, la investigación se argumenta en que, si las empresas se encuentran respaldadas con una posición tributaria sustentada en la normativa fiscal peruana se podrán deducir íntegramente la depreciación tributaria de la maquinaria devaluada, en particular las empresas de la industria de alimentos, evitando así perjuicios económicos en el cumplimiento de sus obligaciones tributarias. Metodológicamente la investigación se basó en entrevistas realizadas con la finalidad de conocer las posiciones tributarias que existen en el mercado, y hacer un análisis de las mismas basándonos en la normativa tributaria. La muestra se compuso por directores y gerentes de impuestos de empresas de la industria de alimentos, firmas auditoras y estudios contables, que prestan servicios de asesoría tributaria en el Perú. Asimismo, los cálculos realizados correspondientes al activo fijo se basaron en informacion proporcionada por una importante empresa de la industria de alimentos que nos permitió cuantificar el impacto económico de las posiciones más representativas del mercado. Los resultados de la investigación demuestran que, la posición que te permite deducir la depreciación tributaria del costo histórico de la maquinaria y equipo devaluada por adopción NIIF, sería la que más se ajusta a la normativa jurídica tributaria vigente.The present work of sufficiency professional has as objective assess them positions tax and establish that whose exhibition of motives is find sustained in the legislation tax existing, and support to the companies of the industry food before a possible control of the Administration tax (Sunat), which is in question the deduction of the depreciation of machinery and equipment, which suffered a decline in their historical costs by adopting IFRS. This made today could generate damages economic of origin tributary to the companies of the country, especially to the companies of the industry food, affecting your situation economic and fiscal in its quality of taxpayers, since most these machines have not finished to depreciate. By such reason, the research is argues in that, if the companies are backed with a position tax supported by Peruvian tax regulations may not be reduced completely devalued machinery tax depreciation, in particular the companies of the industry food, avoiding thus damages economic in the compliance of its obligations tax. Methodologically, the research was based on interviews conducted with the purpose of knowing the tax positions that exist in the market and make an analysis of them based on the tax legislation. The sample was composed by directors and managers of taxes from businesses in the food industry, firms audit and studies accounting, that lend services of advisory tax in the Peru. It was also quantified the economic impact of the most representative of the market positions resulting in that food companies would have a savings tax in case take the position to deduct tax depreciation the historical cost of machinery and equipment devalued by IFRS adoption. Therefore, this position would be that best fits the tax legal regulations, and which based on the results obtained and the analysis regulatory made propose a benefit tax to the taxpayer.
Trabajo de Suficiencia Profesional
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Sow, Moussé Ndoye. "Essays on Exchange Rate Regimes and Fiscal Policy." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015CLF10479/document.
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Cette thèse s’intéresse d’une part aux effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change, et d’autre part, aux récentes évolutions sur la politique budgétaire et la décentralisation. La partie I met essentiellement l’accent sur l’interaction entre les régimes de change (RC) et la politique budgétaire, monétaire et fiscale. Tout d’abord, nous mettons en évidence que les RC peuvent avoir un effet stabilisateur sur la politique budgétaire (chapitre 1). Cependant, cet effet stabilisateur des RC n’est pas automatique mais dépendrait plutôt des conséquences d’une politique budgétaire laxiste. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse quant à lui à la causalité entre RC et crises (bancaire/financière, de change et de dette) et remet en cause la vision bipolaire qui prétendait que les RC intermédiaires sont plus vulnérables aux crises que les solutions en coin (RC fixes/flexibles). Il ressort de notre analyse que les fondamentaux macroéconomiques (la volatilité du crédit au secteur privé, le financement du déficit, et le ratio dette sur PIB) jouent un rôle considérable. Le chapitre 3 met en évidence un lien entre les RC et la politique fiscale. Les pays à RC fixes montrent une plus grande dépendance aux recettes domestiques –telles que la TVA-, comparativement aux pays en change intermédiaires/flexibles pour compenser les pertes de recettes de seigneuriage (effet de substitution). De plus, ces pays avec RC fixes collectent plus de recettes domestiques en compensation de la perte de recettes douanières, suite à la libéralisation commerciale (effet de compétitivité). Dans les trois derniers chapitres (partie II), nous mettons le focus sur la politique budgétaire et les effets de la décentralisation. Le chapitre 4 révèle une relation non-linéaire entre la politique budgétaire et le cycle économique, qui dépend du niveau de la dette publique. Lorsque celle-ci dépasse un certain seuil (87%), la politique budgétaire perd toute propriété contra-cyclique. Nous montrons par ailleurs que l’effet disciplinaire ex-ante des règles budgétaires aide à restaurer la contra-cyclicité de la politique budgétaire. A travers le chapitre 5, nous montrons que la décentralisation budgétaire, dans un cadre politico-institutionnel sein et dépourvu de corruption, améliore l’offre de biens et services publics. Le chapitre 6 conclut que la décentralisation impacte positivement le solde structurel. Cependant une asymétrie entre la décentralisation des dépenses et celle des recettes accroit la dépendance des gouvernements locaux vis-à-vis du gouvernement central en termes de transferts, et amoindrirait considérablement à l’effet positif de la décentralisationThis thesis explored, in two parts, the macroeconomic impacts of exchange rate regimes (ERR), as well as the recent developments in fiscal policy and fiscal decentralization. Part I has reconsidered the role of ERR and its interplay with fiscal, monetary and tax policy. The first result that emerges (Chapter 1) is that fixed ERR can serve as a credible policy tool for stabilizing fiscal policy. However, this stabilizing effect is conditional upon the inter-temporal distribution of the costs of loose fiscal policy. In assessing the linkage between ERR and crises (banking/financial, currency and debt), Chapter 2 evidenced that the bipolar view is no longer valid, and that, crisis proneness rather depends on the macroeconomic fundamentals (the volatility of private sector credit, the deficit-financing mechanism, and the debt-to-GDP ratio). In Chapter 3, we unveiled a strong relationship between ERR and tax policy. Countries with pegged regimes have greater reliance on domestic taxation -such as the VAT- to make up for the loss of seigniorage revenue (substitution effect). Moreover, peggers tend to collect more VAT revenue to offset the shortfall in cross border taxes following the trade liberalization reform (competitiveness effect). Part II discussed the cyclical response of fiscal policy in high debt periods, and focused on fiscal decentralization issues. In Chapter 4, we showed that the reaction of fiscal policy to the business cycle is non-linear and conditional to the level of public debt. When the debt-to-GDP ratio goes beyond a certain threshold (87%), fiscal policy loses its counter-cyclical properties. Further, we highlighted that carefully-designed fiscal rules help maintaining counter-cyclicality through an ex ante disciplinary effect. Chapters 5 and 6 analyzed the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of public service delivery and fiscal policy performance, respectively. Chapter 5 revealed that a sufficient level of expenditure decentralization, coupled with revenue decentralization, improves the efficiency of public service delivery. However, the political and institutional environment is critical for reaping decentralization-led benefits. Lastly, Chapter 6 concluded that fiscal decentralization has destabilizing effect by reducing the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. In addition, we found that decentralization strengthens the structural fiscal balance; however, vertical fiscal imbalances reduce the benefits of decentralization. It is therefore critical to limit asymmetries between expenditure and revenue decentralization, so as to reduce the transfer-dependency of local governments to the central level, and thus prevent decentralization from weakening the fiscal stance at the general government level
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Gerardou, Flor Silvestre. "The impact of fiscal decentralisation on accountability and public entrepreneurship : a case of rural local governments in Mexico." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2016. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/the-impact-of-fiscal-decentralisation-on-accountability-and-public-entrepreneurship-a-case-of-rural-local-governments-in-mexico(4077fed0-dd69-425f-b32c-84efd31c1ef5).html.
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Decentralisation, meaning the delegation of responsibilities from central to lower government levels is generally assumed to improve the delivery of local public services. The theoretical assumption is that local authorities are encouraged by decentralisation to behave in a more accountable and entrepreneurial fashion. At the same time, accountability and (public) entrepreneurship are distinct concepts and may even be considered to involve conflicting behaviours. Therefore, decentralisation outcomes may vary depending on which behavioural pattern predominates. Previous research has focused on using large data sets to examine the impact of decentralisation on outcomes such as economic growth, disparities, poverty reduction and government performance. But there is also a need to better understand how decentralisation, and specifically fiscal decentralisation, may promote accountability and public entrepreneurship in specific settings. To contribute to closing this gap, this dissertation examines both fiscal decentralisation policies and contemporaneous changes in political arrangements. It identifies the incentives these changes create for Mexican local authorities to behave in more accountable and entrepreneurial ways and which may lead to differences in government performance. The study focuses on rural municipalities where achieving the predicted decentralisation outcomes is highly challenging. A mixed methods research design was used with two phases. In the first stage, the relationship between fiscal decentralization and changes in government accountability and entrepreneurship was investigated through statistical analysis based on fixed effects estimation using a sample of 505 rural municipalities. For that purpose a longitudinal dataset was developed, comprising municipal level information between the years 1990 and 2009, including indices for accountability and public entrepreneurship. Phase two involves multiple case studies of individual municipalities that were selected based on performance. The empirical evidence suggests that decentralisation policy has tended to work against accountability but has increased entrepreneurial behaviour in rural municipalities, highlighting the potential tension between the two. The extent to which these effects occur seems to depend on the particular fiscal arrangement. In addition, political competition seems to reinforce accountability and has an impact in entrepreneurship in a different way to the effects expected theoretically, though the effects are not as strong as with fiscal decentralisation. This study advances the public entrepreneurship literature and expands the understanding of fiscal decentralisation. Additionally, it provides suggestions for which policy arrangements are likely to promote accountability and entrepreneurial actions by public authorities.
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Singh, Shiu Raj. "Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis." Diss., Lincoln University, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10182/774.
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Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.
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Klyvienė, Violeta. "Fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui." Doctoral thesis, Lithuanian Academic Libraries Network (LABT), 2014. http://vddb.library.lt/obj/LT-eLABa-0001:E.02~2014~D_20141010_115036-65090.
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Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms.
Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive model (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, government investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.
Books on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Cohen, Darrel. Forecasting exogenous fiscal variables in the United States. Washington, D.C: Federal Reserve Board, 2003.
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Fund, International Monetary, ed. The impact of fiscal policy variables on output growth. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, 1998.
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Kouassi, Eugène. Effects of inflation on Ivorian fiscal variables: An econometric investigation. Nairobi: African Economic Research Consortium, 1996.
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Pagan, Adrian. On econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks and exogenous variables. Bonn, Germany: IZA, 2007.
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Celasun, Oya. On the properties of various estimators for fiscal reaction functions. [Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2006.
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Kouassi, Eugène. Effets de l'inflation sur les variables fiscales ivoiriennes: Une étude économetrique. Nairobi, Kenya: Consortium pour la recherche économique en Afrique, 1997.
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Porto, Alberto. Federalismo fiscal en la práctica. Editorial de la Universidad Nacional de La Plata (EDULP), 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.35537/10915/40537.
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<i>Federalismo fiscal en la práctica</i> brinda un conjunto de elementos para el estudio de los gobiernos multinivel y de las relaciones fiscales intergubernamentales. El enfoque es empírico, centrado en el estudio de variables fiscales de la nación, las provincias y las municipalidades de la Argentina. Se estudian también las relaciones fiscales entre esos niveles de gobierno. <i>(del texto de contratapa)</i>
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Kang, Joong Shik, and Oya Celasun. On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions. International Monetary Fund, 2006.
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Kang, Joong Shik, and Oya Celasun. On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions. International Monetary Fund, 2006.
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Kang, Joong Shik, and Oya Celasun. On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions. International Monetary Fund, 2006.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Heim, John J. "Acronyms Used to Define Variables in Equations." In Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2, 581–83. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64727-8_29.
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Heim, John J. "Comparing Endogenous and Total Loanable Funds Modifiers to Deficit Variables." In Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2, 529–53. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64727-8_24.
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Gumata, Nombulelo, and Eliphas Ndou. "Fiscal Policy Variables Shock Impact on Inflation and GDP Growth." In Labour Market and Fiscal Policy Adjustments to Shocks, 407–19. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-66520-7_28.
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Ndou, Eliphas, and Nombulelo Gumata. "Do Fiscal Policy Variables Drive Inflation in the Same Direction?" In Inflation Dynamics in South Africa, 161–72. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46702-3_11.
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Heim, John J. "Comparing Various Stand-Alone Endogenous Loanable Funds, and FR Securities Purchases Variables Models." In Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2, 479–518. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64727-8_21.
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Heim, John J. "Alternate Ways of Modeling How Deficit Variables Modified by Accommodative Monetary Policy Reduce Crowd Out (Bernanke, Mankiw Definitions of Accommodative Monetary Policy)." In Why Fiscal Stimulus Programs Fail, Volume 2, 321–38. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64727-8_13.
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Heim, John J. "Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (One-Variable Deficit)." In Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus, 43–90. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45967-7_5.
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Heim, John J. "Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (One-Variable Deficit)." In Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus, 91–132. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45967-7_6.
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Heim, John J. "Test Results: Consumer Spending and Borrowing Models (Two-Variable Deficit)." In Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus, 133–49. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45967-7_7.
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Heim, John J. "Test Results: Investment Spending and Borrowing Models (Two-Variable Deficit)." In Crowding Out Fiscal Stimulus, 151–71. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-45967-7_8.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Burentegsh, Dorjjugder, and Péter Elek. "Macroeconomic policy empirical analysis using an unrestricted standard VAR Model." In The European Union’s Contention in the Reshaping Global Economy. Szeged: Szegedi Tudományegyetem Gazdaságtudományi Kar, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14232/eucrge.2022.11.
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This paper is mainly about key fiscal policy indicators and their interrelations between each other. The model that is used in the analysis is the Vector Autoregressive Model. There are seven variables selected: GDP, Money Supply, Government Revenue, Government Expenditure, Export, Government Debt, and Global Copper Price. Besides VAR estimation, IRFs are computed to define how variables react to certain shocks. The key finding of the research is that both GDP and government revenue are sensitive to copper price changes and the resulting shock. Copper Price is an effective tool to predict these two variables in the shortrun. Government Revenue is an effective tool to impact export in the short-run. Government Debt is not an effective indicator to affect any variables except Government Expenditure. Money Supply is only effective for GDP. Government Expenditure is also not significantly effective in having an impact on other variables, but is weakly affected by Government Revenue, Copper Price, and Export. Most variables considered in the research belong to fiscal policy, thus, effective fiscal policy can be implemented using the results of this paper.
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Hadžić, Faruk, and Nebojša Savanović. "FISCAL POLICY IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA - AN INSTRUMENT FOR FASTER GROWTH OR ECONOMIC STAGNATION?" In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2021.0008.
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The paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on economic growth, foreign direct investment and employment in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The focus of research is fiscal policy, which as a lever of economic policy that affects economic growth and development. The aim of the research is to determine the impact of fiscal policy on the economy of Bosnia and Herzegovina and propose solutions for higher growth and development, a higher degree of foreign direct investment and reducing the unemployment rate. The results of the research show that the fiscal policy for the years that are the subject of the research, has affected the public debt of the state. High taxes and contributions have contributed to the spread of the gray economy, fiscal discipline is at a low level due to the management in this way of this lever of economic policy. Public financial management should be one of the key macroeconomic goals, with special emphasis on fiscal policy. The research went in the direction of analyzing current trends and proposals for improving the situation. The research aims to show the current statistical impact of variables on gross domestic product, on growth and development and the impact after the application of expansionary fiscal policy on the same variables. It is recommended that economic policy be conducted in the direction of releasing additional funds through the redistribution of taxes in favor of workers, in the direction of capital investments that will repay themselves, to reduce the rate of taxes and contributions on wages and with incentives for investors, to go towards stimulating production and tax reliefs for export-oriented activities with an effort to try to produce products whose production is possible in our conditions, and all this is mostly possible with the implementation of an expansive fiscal policy.
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Bedir, Serap, and Arzu Tural Dikmen. "Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: New Evidences from Turkey Using a Bounds Testing Approach." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00915.
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A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970–2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank’s Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.
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Aydemir, Ahmet Fatih, and Ahmet Alkan Çelik. "The Relations between Stabilization Policies and Economic Growth in the Economies of Central Asia and Caucasia." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c03.00399.
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In the early 1990s, with the fall of communism and the dissolution of USSR, the so-called transition economies have emerged in Eastern Europe and the former USSR. Within this transition period from planned to market economies, fiscal and monetary discipline has not been adequately emphasized while the crucial aim of these economies is to realize price liberalization, privatization and economic stabilization. Hence, the problems of income distribution and growth have not been able to be solved. In this paper, we analyze the relations between economic growth and fiscal and monetary discipline in the economies of Central Asia and Caucasia since their independence. We use WDI-2010 data of the World Bank in order to develop a model including fiscal and monetary variables, which aims to represent the growth experiences of the aforementioned countries.
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Lim, Choong Heng, Temmy Harianto Dharmadji, Azrin Kassim, Muhammad Usman Ul Haq Sethi, and Muhammad Kamran Qureshi. "Competitive Evaluation of Malaysia Enhanced Profitability Terms with Southeast Asia Fiscal Terms." In International Petroleum Technology Conference. IPTC, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2523/iptc-22162-ms.
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Abstract Malaysia has introduced a shallow-water enhanced profitability term (EPT) production sharing contract (PSC) in the year 2021 to reward a PSC contractor with equitable returns reflecting the business risk and the opportunity to accelerate development and monetization. This study evaluates the attractiveness of the EPT against several fiscal terms adopted in southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar. This paper established an offshore shallow-water field development analogue project with a total production volume of 68 MMbbl, capital expenditure (Capex) of USD 530 million, predevelopment operating expenditure (Opex) of USD 36 million, variable Opex of USD 12.5/bbl, floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) rental of USD 61 million/year, and abandonment capital of USD 101 million. High, base, and low scenarios are considered for oil price per barrel as USD 70, 60, and 50, respectively, and production volume scenarios as 78, 68, and 58 MMbbl, respectively. These values with certain fiscal assumptions are input into a fiscal model engine for economic indicators [net present value (NPV), rate of return (ROR), and payback], revenue take, after-tax cashflow, and variables sensitivity calculations to evaluate base, optimistic, and pessimistic cases. In the base case, the attractiveness order of countries based on a higher-positive NPV at 10% and ROR are Malaysia EPT (NPV at 10% = USD 198 million, ROR = 30.4%), Indonesia PSC (2017) (NPV at 10% = USD 149 million, ROR = 28.3%), and Thailand Royalty and Tax (R/T; 1991) (NPV at 10% = USD 32 million, ROR = 14.5%). In the optimistic case, the NPVs at 10% are improved, ranging from Thailand (+271%), Myanmar (+247%), Malaysia (+151%), and Indonesia and Vietnam (+141%) as compared to the base case. In the pessimistic case, all the fiscal terms are unfeasible for ROR at 10%. Myanmar PSC (1993) yields above 10% ROR only when the production is at the base or high scenario with oil price at USD 70/bbl. Vietnam PSC (2013) is unfeasible for positive NPV at 10% even with high oil price under various taxes, including the windfall profit tax. Indonesia has a better NPV at 10% at a low oil price because of the progressive split that subsidizes the operator. Oil price and production volume are the top two sensitive variables except for Vietnam, where capital is the highest. The contractor take is higher in Malaysia, followed by Indonesia, Thailand, Myanmar, and Vietnam at base and high oil price. When the oil price is low, Indonesia generated a higher contractor take than Malaysia. Malaysia EPT is the only fiscal regime that can generate a contractor take that is higher than government take and stagnant around 55% against the 40% in Indonesia. In conclusion, Malaysia EPT provides a better investment return when the oil price is USD 60/bbl and above, while Indonesia gross split is more profitable when the oil price is low. This study provides insights on the potential investment returns by new EPT fiscal terms. The attractiveness and potential margin upside when the oil price is on the rebound paves the way for other southeast Asia fiscal terms.
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Çevik, Savaş, Ahmet Ay, and Mahamane Moutari Abdou Baoua. "Natural Resources Revenue, Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for Sub-Saharan Africa Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c09.02005.
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The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between natural resources revenue, fiscal policy and economic growth for 35 selected Sub-Saharan African countries. The panel data covering the periods of 1986-2014 was analyzed by using the fixed/random effect model estimation and the panel causality test. We also performed the panel unit root test in order to insure that our variables are stationary. The empirical results indicate that there is insignificant negative effect of natural resources revenue and bad fiscal policy on the economic growth. However, there is significant positive effect of capital formation on economic growth. We also found a bidirectional causality relationship between Natural resources rents and economic growth. There is also unidirectional causality link from government final consumption expenditure to Natural resources revenue and from Natural resources revenue to capital formation. These empirical results mean that Sub-Saharan African countries apply bad fiscal policy to improve the natural resource sector which does not efficiently contribute to the economic growth. This study suggests that countries of Sub-Saharan Africa must apply improved fiscal policy in order to add tax revenue to their total revenue; and they must also use the natural resources revenue in order to invest in other sectors such as education, manufacturing and agriculture.
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Csápai, Ádám. "Analyzing the Interactions of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy Using a DSGE Model." In EDAMBA 2021 : 24th International Scientific Conference for Doctoral Students and Post-Doctoral Scholars. University of Economics in Bratislava, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.53465/edamba.2021.9788022549301.63-72.
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The principal aim of this paper is to estimate a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with monetary and fiscal policy and analyze the interaction of these policies in Hungary. In the paper we present the model in a log-linearized form. We combine both calibration and Bayesian estimation to obtain parameter values of the model. We find that the model is suitable for impulse response analysis, so we estimate the impulse response functions of the model. We examine how five endogenous variables – namely output, inflation, the nominal interest rate, government spending and government revenue – react to non-systematic shocks to the nominal interest rate, government spending and government revenue. The plotted impulse response functions allow us to study how monetary and fiscal policy interacts in a small open economy. In some cases we find that restrictive fiscal policy is accompanied by expansive monetary policy, while in other cases the policy responses to shocks are coordinated. We conclude that our results are in accordance with economic theory.
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Aydın, Eren Gül. "A Study on Informal Employment in Turkey from Theorical and Emprical Perspectives." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00824.
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This paper elaborates both theorical and empirical evolution of the informal employment as an part of the informal economy in Turkey. First of all, economic dualism and migration is emphasized as the main reasons of informal employment and examine other reasons of the informal employment such as social,fiscal and economic.Later of this study, an econometric model is employed by using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. Informal employment is used as independent variables of industrial production(IPI). The first result of econometrics model, informal employment was seen statistically significiant determinator of IPI. Secondly, some production and employment variables and Gross National Product are used for estimating decisive factor of the informal employment in Turkey between 2005 and 2012. Results show that GDP and all other variables used in regression positively corelated to informal employment except import and export in Turkey.
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Velkovska, Ivana. "THE COST OF NEGATIVE INCOME TAX AS A FISCAL MEASURE TO TACKLE POVERTY IN NORTH MACEDONIA." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2020.0002.
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This paper makes an effort to evaluate the cost of negative income tax as a fiscal measure aiming to tackle the persistent high poverty rate in Macedonia. Poverty, income inequality and unemployment are expected to rise all around the world due to the pandemic corona virus outbreak and the subsequent economic crisis. Governments around the world have already implemented measures similar to universal basic income with the purpose of increasing household consumption and stimulating aggregate demand but also to mitigate the devastating effects that the recent unfavorable economic developments have on the citizens living in poverty or are at the risk of poverty. However, shrinking fiscal spaces of small economies could be an obstacle to implement such policies. Compared to universal basic income, negative income tax is a less costly policy option that targets the population living in poverty instead of providing payments to everyone regardless of their income. The analysis based on the available data is indicating that implementing such policy would cost as much as 9.7 billion MKD per year, which is 4% of the planned state budget revenues for Y2020, 8% of the planned social transfers for Y2020 and 29% of the funds that the state has made available for tackling the COVID 19 crisis so far. In addition, the negative income tax could trigger various positive effects on the economy. Since poor people spend almost all of their income, it could be expected that implementing negative income tax would rise household consumption. According to the empirical analysis in this paper, household consumption is in highest correlation to GDP growth in Macedonia compared to the other explanatory variables (government consumption, investments, import and export).
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Noveski, Martin, Nina Mojsova Kjoseva, and Sasho Kjosev. "GOVERNMENT INDEBTEDNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA." In Economic and Business Trends Shaping the Future. Ss Cyril and Methodius University, Faculty of Economics-Skopje, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.47063/ebtsf.2020.0001.
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Government consumption plays an important role for stability of the national economy, especially in periods of economic crisis. However, rapidly growing public debt is a concerning issue nowadays, since it might jeopardize economic growth perspectives. Economic theory suggests that public debt has non-linear impact on economic growth in a form of inverted U-shape. In other words, it is believed that after a certain threshold, public debt will have negative impact on economic growth. Given that such threshold varies significantly across countries, the aim of this paper is to calculate the turning point of the public debt impact in the Republic of North Macedonia. For this purpose, we use non-linear multiple regression model for real GDP growth rate as dependent variable, general government public debt-to-GDP ratio (in nominal and squared terms) as key independent variable, as well as several other controlling variables. Since theory also suggests reverse causality between economic growth and public debt, we use three different estimation techniques (Ordinary Least Squares, Two-Stages Least Squares, and Generalized Method of Moments) to deal with potential endogeneity, as well as to cross-validate the results. Our results show that general government debt in the Republic of North Macedonia positively affects economic growth until it reaches around 30% of GDP, whereas further indebtedness after that turning point will most likely have negative impact. Given that current debt level is slightly above 40% (10 percentage points higher than the turning point), whereby due to the COVID-19 crisis it is expected to grow even more in the upcoming years, the need of urgent fiscal consolidation inevitably arises. In this regards, deeper and more comprehensive analysis is needed in order to identify adequate channels for its efficient and effective implementation.
Reports on the topic "Fiscal variables"
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Valencia, Oscar, Juan José Díaz, and Diego A. Parra. Assessing Macro-Fiscal Risk for Latin American and Caribbean Countries. Inter-American Development Bank, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004530.
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This paper provides a comprehensive early warning system (EWS) that balances the classical signaling approach with the best-realized machine learning (ML) model for predicting fiscal stress episodes. Using accumulated local effects (ALE), we compute a set of thresholds for the most informative variables that drive the correlation between predictors. In addition, to evaluate the main country risks, we propose a leading fiscal risk indicator, highlighting macro, fiscal and institutional attributes. Estimates from different models suggest significant heterogeneity among the most critical variables in determining fiscal risk across countries. While macro variables have higher relevance for advanced countries, fiscal variables were more significant for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) and emerging economies. These results are consistent under different liquidity-solvency metrics and have deepened since the global financial crisis.
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Salazar-Díaz, Andrea, Aaron Levi Garavito Acosta, Sergio Restrepo-Ángel, and Leidy Viviana Arcila-Agudelo. Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Colombia: Thousands of VEC Models Approach. Banco de la República Colombia, December 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1221.
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Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) models suggest many variables as potential drivers of equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER). This gives rise to model uncertainty issues, as ERER depends and varies, often drastically, on a particular set of chosen variables. We address this issue by estimating thousands of Vector Error Correction (VEC) specifications for Colombian data between 2000Q1-2019Q4. According to an extensive literature review, we employ thirty-five proxies categorized among five fixed groups of economic fundamentals that underlie the ERER: Indebtedness, Fiscal sector, Productivity, Terms-of-Trade, and Interest Rate Differentials. Our approach derives an empirical distribution of ERER that allows us to state with greater certainty, among hundreds of plausible economic specifications, whether the real exchange rate is either misaligned or in equilibrium.
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Islam, Wajid, and Junaid Ahmed. To Borrow or Not to Borrow: Empirical Evidence from the Public Debt Sustainability of Pakistan. Asian Development Bank Institute, January 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.56506/mowj8135.
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We aim to evaluate the public debt sustainability of Pakistan using the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework and fiscal reaction function (FRF). For the empirical analysis, we use relevant important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, external debt, primary balance, output growth, current account balance, and oil prices, over the period 1976–2021. The results of the DSA suggest that, at the 10% growth rate with a real interest rate lower than 10%, the public debt level can be brought under the 60% standard sustainable limit from the current 80% by the year 2030. Furthermore, the estimates of the FRF reveal no evidence of debt sustainability. Besides this, the COVID-19 pandemic is positively associated with the primary balance mainly due to the decrease in the primary balance from –3.5% in 2019 to –0.9% in 2020. This is expected as a large amount of debt relief was provided to Pakistan during this period. Overall, our findings indicate that, if the rapid debt accumulation trend continues, the country will be unable to bear such a hefty load of ballooning debt. Therefore, a strategy of continuing coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for robust growth momentum to keep the debt sustainable.
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Cadiero Kaplan, Karen, Magaly Lavadenz, and Elvira Armas. Essential Elements of Effective Practices for English Learners. Center for Equity for English Learners, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.15365/ceel.policy.9.
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One of the most powerful variables for English Learner success is the quality of their teachers. This policy brief published by Californians Together (1) provides a synthesis of effective practices for instructing ELs; (2) presents four research-based essential elements critical for EL program implementation, teacher reflection, and monitoring of teacher effectiveness; and (3) concludes with program and policy recommendations. Three key areas for policy action are prioritized: (1) District and state level policies must require that local and state leadership support the implementation of these essential elements; (2) Alignment of fiscal and human resources must be targeted to ensure that teachers are provided with professional development, materials and curricular program supports required to implement these key elements leading to English learner success; and (3) Teacher preparation and credential requirements need to incorporate the four critical elements of effective practice for success with English Learners.
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Meneses, Juan Francisco, and José Luis Saboin. Growth Recoveries (from Collapses). Inter-American Development Bank, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003419.
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This paper analyzes the behavior of a long list of economic variables during episodes of recovery from an economic collapse. A set of stylized facts is proposed so as to depict what in this work is called \saygrowth recoveries. Through different estimation techniques, it is inferred under which conditions and policies the likelihood of experiencing a growth recovery increases. The results of the paper indicate that collapses tend to occur in countries with high dependence on natural resource rents, macroeconomic mismanagement, low levels of democratic accountability and rule of law and high levels of conflict. Recoveries, on the other hand, tend to be longer than collapses and are more likely to occur in contexts of: improved external conditions, less natural resource rents, balanced fiscal accounts, where the exchange rate corrects but within a more fixed exchange rate regime and a more restricted financial account, and where there are: rebounds in private consumption, increases in international trade and improvements on property rights.
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Mooney, Henry, David Rosenblatt, Cloe Ortiz de Mendívil, Gralyn Frazier, Ariel McCaskie, Victor Gauto, Elton Bollers, Jason Christie, Jeetendra Khadan, and Nazera Abdul-Haqq. Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin: Volume 10: Issue 2, August 2021. Inter-American Development Bank, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003573.
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For more than a year, the Caribbean economics team at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has focused on the potential implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for lives and livelihoods across the region. The pandemic is still with us, but there is hope that the cycles of lockdowns and containment measures will eventually come to an end as vaccination programs progress, even if unevenly, across the region. However, the availability of vaccine supply remains a concern, and the pandemic continues to pose a constraint for the recovery of key sectors such as tourism and local services sectors. This edition of the Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin focuses on two topics: (1) forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, based on the April 2021 WEO, and (2) financial sector risks. In general, regional economies are embarking on a fragile path to recovery. Continued progress with vaccination programs, credible medium-term fiscal programs, and continued attention to financial vulnerabilities will be needed to push that path to recovery forward.
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Prats Cabrera, Joan Oriol, and María Eugenia Pereira. Standardized Sovereign Debt Statistics for Latin America and the Caribbean: Analysis of Regional and Country Trends and Cross-Country Comparisons. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004387.
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This document analyzes gross and net public debt data for countries in the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region up to December 2020. It provides a unique overview of the main characteristics of the regions debt and a comparative analysis of its most pressing risks (currency, maturity, rate, and credit). Its main purpose is to assess the changes in size and composition of debt for the region and to provide a comparative analysis of the diverse country cases that comprise it. 2020 was an atypical and pressing year in fiscal demands motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to increased financing needs and thus a potential to disrupt the characteristics of debt. Using debt data collected since 2006 by the IDBs LAC Debt Group, the analysis aims to contextualize the 2020 debt structure. It also analyzes LAC debt in the first year of the pandemic, examining its evolution between June 2020 and June 2021 and provides an overview of key variables for debt in LAC countries.
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Garcimartín, Carlos, and Jerónimo Roca. Impacto fiscal y distributivo de las medidas adoptadas para hacer frente a la crisis energética en Centroamérica, Panamá y República Dominicana. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, November 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0004563.
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En un contexto en el cual los hogares y empresas ya estaban pasando dificultades económicas por la crisis del COVID-19, los precios internacionales de los combustibles comenzaron a aumentar con el fin de las medidas de confinamiento y la reactivación de la actividad productiva. Posteriormente, tras comenzar la guerra en Ucrania, dicho aumento se aceleró, superando claramente los niveles prepandemia. En respuesta a ello, los países de Centroamérica, Panamá y República Dominicana (CAPRD), al igual que otros de dentro y fuera de Latinoamérica, empezaron a adoptar medidas para mitigar el impacto sobre los consumidores. Sin pretender realizar una rigurosa clasificación conceptual, estas medidas han sido de tres tipos: i) congelamiento de precios, instrumentado por distintas vías; ii) rebaja de precios por una cuantía determinada, directamente o vía reducción de impuestos; y iii) subsidios fijos, ya sea de monto total o por unidad de consumo. Uno de los objetivos principales de este trabajo es presentar estimaciones del costo fiscal directo en 2022 de las medidas tomadas por los países de CAPRD. Con la información disponible a la hora de escribir este documento, el costo promedio en CAPRD fue del 0,5% del PIB hasta agosto incluido. Atendiendo a los diversos combustibles, en promedio de CAPRD la mayor cuota del costo fiscal corresponde al diésel, seguido del GLP, la gasolina superior y, finalmente, la gasolina regular. Respecto a la distribución por tipo de medidas, el congelamiento de precios ha sido la que ha tenido mayor costo fiscal total, seguida de la reducción de impuestos, la rebaja directa de precios y, finalmente, los subsidios. En cuanto al tipo de costo, en promedio, las medidas con costo variable han tenido una mayor participación cuantitativa que las de costo fijo. No obstante, todos estos resultados muestran una alta variabilidad entre países. Finalmente, hemos realizado un análisis distributivo estimado de las medidas adoptadas para tres países: Costa Rica, Panamá y El Salvador. Empleando un indicador estándar de progresividad, dichas medidas han sido progresivas en los dos primeros, aunque las causas son distintas, y regresivas en El Salvador.
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Salas, Humberto. Medición de la confianza empresarial: un enfoque regional desde la Araucanía. Universidad Autónoma de Chile, July 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32457/2050012728/975520193.
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Toloza et al. (2018) describen una dificultad contingente al indicar que en nuestro país no se cuenta con “información robusta” a nivel regional y sectorial para el uso de los distintos agentes económicos. El autor resalta la insuficiente información para la toma de decisiones a nivel territorial y señala que esta es una limitante y un desafío país, por lo que es necesaria la “creación de sistemas regionales integrados de información territorial” (p. 194) para estos fines. El problema anterior, sumado al dilema de comprender el mecanismo bajo el cual estos agentes (empresas, familias y gobierno) forman sus expectativas, representa uno de los desafíos más importantes de la macroeconomía moderna, fundamentalmente en lo que refiere a los ciclos de negocios. Esto, dado que la gran dificultad para estudiar este fenómeno con mayor nivel de desagregación se centra en la disponibilidad de información (Borraz y Gianelli, 2011). Considerando el carácter social que tiene la economía, su comportamiento se ve influenciado por las percepciones de los agentes económicos, respecto de los escenarios futuros. Estas percepciones guardan relación con la coyuntura económica, la política, el resto del mundo y el marco jurídico en un país, entre otros elementos. Es en este contexto en que los gobiernos y el sector privado deben alcanzar un consenso sobre políticas económicas y sociales que produzcan un entorno estable para las regiones (Después de la crisis, 2010). La experiencia internacional indica que una consolidación y un buen manejo de la política fiscal influye fuertemente en el corto plazo en el “sentimiento empresarial” (Michail, et al., 2018). Esta tesis la refuerzan Bachmann y Sims (2012), quienes plantean que una política económica orientada a la consolidación tiene un impacto potente en la economía, a través del canal de confianza empresarial, con efectos que no deben ser subestimados. Considerando que en la Araucanía este componente es importante, la política fiscal juega entonces un papel relevante en las expectativas del empresariado. Es así como en la región, las empresas, gremios, consumidores, comerciantes, agricultores e inversionistas poseen visiones relativas de lo que podría acontecer, considerando su experiencia y apreciaciones, que son muchas veces subjetivas. Se formulan así, período a período, supuestos sobre acontecimientos que buscan explicar escenarios futuros; a este proceso mental colectivo lo llamamos expectativas. No cabe duda de que estas determinan el comportamiento futuro del consumo, del ahorro y la inversión, e incluso de la orientación de la política pública, al impactar directamente en la actividad económica y, más importante, en la generación de empleo e ingresos de la fuerza de trabajo. En consecuencia la situación en la Araucanía no es difiere del problema de cómo los agentes económicos se forman expectativas y cómo logran interactuar con la estructura institucional de la economía, habiendo históricamente interés de los investigadores por incursionar en estas temáticas (Rosser, 2001). La utilización de indicadores que reflejan las expectativas de agentes económicos levantados por medio de encuestas es desarrollada en muchos países que cuentan con un sistema de estadísticas avanzado. Lanzilotta (2014) establece que los indicadores de este tipo son ampliamente utilizados en investigación aplicada, con el fin de capturar y anticipar los movimientos de numerosas variables, para así dar cuenta de la formación de expectativas y los planes de las empresas. El autor plantea que los indicadores de expectativas elaborados a partir tanto de encuestas a empresarios como a consumidores son ampliamente divulgados, principalmente con dos objetivos: explorar los mecanismos de formación de expectativas e identificar su poder predictivo. Es válido, entonces, examinar la forma en que las expectativas locales tienen efectos concretos para la comunidad y los mecanismos en que estas perspectivas afectan realmente el desempeño económico de un territorio. Es en este contexto que según lo expuesto por Salas (2018), la Facultad de Administración y Negocios de la Universidad Autónoma de Chile —con metodología de la Universidad del Desarrollo y el apoyo de la Multigremial de la Araucanía, representante de SOFOFA en la zona— ha aunado esfuerzos para medir la confianza empresarial en la región, desde junio de 2017, creando así el primer Índice de Confianza Empresarial de la Araucanía (ICE Araucanía). Esta iniciativa es relevante, considerando la escasa información para la toma de decisiones del empresariado local en la zona y que la disposición de esta permite a los distintos sectores competir en entornos cambiantes. Así se busca contribuir y hacernos cargo en parte de un problema general que dejó la última crisis económica mundial. Esta manifestó la debilidad de América Latina y de las regiones para competir en una economía global y compleja, debido a la poca información disponible para la toma de decisiones empresariales (Después de la crisis, 2010).
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Ferguson, Thomas, and Servaas Storm. Myth and Reality in the Great Inflation Debate: Supply Shocks and Wealth Effects in a Multipolar World Economy. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, January 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp196.
Full textAbstract:
This paper critically evaluates debates over the causes of U.S. inflation. We first show that claims that the Biden stimulus was the major cause of inflation are mistaken: the key data series – stimulus spending and inflation – move dramatically out of phase. While the first ebbs quickly, the second persistently surges. We then look at alternative explanations of the price rises. We assess four supply side factors: imports, energy prices, rises in corporate profit margins, and COVID. We argue that discussions of COVID’s impact have thus far only tangentially acknowledged the pandemic’s far-reaching effects on labor markets. We conclude that while all four factors played roles in bringing on and sustaining inflation, they cannot explain all of it. There really is an aggregate demand problem. But the surprise surge in demand did not arise from government spending. It came from the unprecedented gains in household wealth, particularly for the richest 10% of households, which we show powered the recovery of aggregate US consumption expenditure especially from July 2021. The final cause of the inflationary surge in the U.S., therefore, was in large measure the unequal (wealth) effects of ultra-loose monetary policy during 2020-2021. This conclusion is important because inflationary pressures are unlikely to subside soon. Going forward, COVID, war, climate change, and the drift to a belligerently multipolar world system are all likely to strain global supply chains. Our conclusion outlines how policy has to change to deal with the reality of steady, but irregular supply shocks. This type of inflation responds only at enormous cost to monetary policies, because it arises mostly from supply-side difficulties that require targeted solutions. But when supply plummets or becomes more variable, fiscal policy also has to adapt: existing explorations of ways to steady demand over the business cycle have to embrace much bolder macroeconomic measures to control over-spending when supply is temporarily constrained.