Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Fiscal inequality'

This PhD thesis gathers three essays on income inequality and fiscal policy. Chapter 2, “Inequality and the Size of Government”, written with Andrew Pickering and Paulo Santos Monteiro, revisits Meltzer and Richard (1981) but with the twist that income inequality is induced by differences in capital income as well as differences in labor productivity. When capital income is difficult to tax, as often observed, then greater capital income inequality leads to reduced demands for tax as the poor cannot effectuate redistribution. Using OECD data, government size and capital income inequality (proxied by the top 1 percent income share) are found to be negatively related in both fixed effects and instrumental variable regressions. Chapter 3, “Inequality and Growth in the Twenty-First Century”, builds on chapter 2 to investigate how economic growth is affected by inequality in an endogenous growth model. The benchmark is Persson and Tabellini (1994), who argue that productivity-induced income inequality leads to lower growth as distortionary taxes increase and harm capital accumulation. However, if income inequality stems from differences in capital, then labor tax rates fall, leading to higher growth. Based on OECD data, the chapter shows that an increase in capital income inequality has a significant positive relationship with subsequent economic growth. Chapter 4, “Demography and the Composition of Taxes”, analyzes the impact of population aging on the composition of taxes in an overlapping generations model. When the median voter is of working age, then population aging increases the demand for expenditure taxes rather than income taxes in order to increase the tax burden on the retired population. Consistent with the theory, international panel data exhibit a robust negative correlation between the extent of taxes on income relative to expenditure, and the fraction of the retired population.

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Um dos principais problemas do crescimento econômico nas economias em desenvolvimento é a desigualdade de renda. Assim, muitos estudos sobre a teoria macroeconômica tentaram deter- minar quais são os principais modos pelos quais a desigualdade pode ser reduzida. A política fiscal redistributiva tem sido considerada uma maneira importante de reduzir a desigualdade e aumentar o crescimento econômico ao mesmo tempo. Tendo em vista a relação entre essas variáveis, este estudo procura esclarecer como a política fiscal afeta a desigualdade de renda e o crescimento econômico. Para realizar tal análise, nós utilizamos três diferentes abordagens. Na primeira estimamos os impactos da política fiscal sobre a desigualdade de renda e o cres- cimento econômico entre os estados brasileiros utilizando um conjunto de modelos de dados em painel. A análise abrange os anos de 1996 a 2011, último ano disponível, compreendendo 16 anos para 26 dos 27 estados brasileiros. Estimamos uma equação individual para explicar o crescimento econômico e duas equações individuais para a desigualdade de renda, cada uma com um conj unto diferente de variáveis explicativas. Com base em modelos de dados em painel, apresentamos evidências de que a relação entre carga tributária, crescimento econômico e desi- gualdade de renda não é linear. Mostramos que quando a carga tributária corresponde a 23% do PIB, o crescimento econômico é máximo e quando a carga tributária corresponde a 19% do PIB, a desigualdade e mínima. Na segunda, construímos um modelo e analisamos os efeitos de uma política fiscal de redistribuição de renda para a economia brasileira. Especificamente, tentamos mostrar os efeitos de uma transferência de renda para a parte mais pobre da população. Criamos um modelo estocástico dinâmico com parâmetros calibrados para o Brasil. Os resultados mostram que os impostos ótimos sobre a renda do capital e a renda do trabalho se comporta- ram de maneiras opostas em ambos os choques (gastos governamentais e produtividade). A composição do orçamento do governo muda de acordo com seu favoritismo para os pobres. As simulações mostram que a existência de desigualdade de renda altera o nível ótimo de impostos e as reações aos choques de oferta e demanda, embora a política fiscal tenha limites. Os resul- tados também mostram evidências de que reduzir a pobreza pode aumentar o produto, eliminar a necessidade de transferências e reduzir, consideravelmente, as flutuações nos impostos. Na terceira abordagem, propomos um modelo que seja uma versão de um equilíbrio competitivo do modelo de crescimento neoclássico básico, que incorpora desigualdade de renda endogena- mente e agentes heterogêneos: pobres e ricos, nos permitindo compreender esse problema de forma dinâmica. Utilizamos o problema de Ramsey para determinar as sequências ótimas para os três tipos de impostos distorcivos, sobre a renda do capital, sobre a renda do trabalho e sobre o consumo em uma economia não estocástica. A solução analítica encontrada sugere que, no estado estacionário, o imposto ideal sobre o capital deve sempre ser zero, independentemente do favoritismo do governo em relação a um agente em particular. Além disso, o governo deveria financiar as transferências para o agente pobre usando diferentes combinações de impostos sobre consumo e renda do trabalho.
One of the main problems of economic growth in developing economies is income inequality. Thus many studies in macroeconomic theory have attempted to determine what are the main ways in which inequality can be reduced. Redistributive fiscal policy has been considered an important way to reduce inequality and increase economic growth at same time. Considering the relationship between these variables, this study seeks to clarify how fiscal policy affects income inequality and economic growth. To perform such analysis, we used three different approaches. First we estimate the impacts of fiscal policy on income inequality and economic growth among Brazilian states using a set of panel data models. The analysis covers the ye- ars from 1996 to 2011, comprising 16 years for 26 of the 27 Brazilian states. We estimated an individual equation to explain economic growth and two individual equations for income inequality, each with a different set of explanatory variables. Based on panel data models, we present evidence that the relationship between Tax Burden and economic growth and income inequality is not linear. We show that when the Tax Burden corresponds to 23% of GDP the economic growth is maximum and when the Tax Burden corresponds to 19% of GDP the ine- quality is minimal. Second, we construct a model and analyze the effects of a fiscal policy of income redistribution for Brazilian economy. Specifically, we try to show the effects of an income transfer for the poorest part of the population. We build a dynamic stochastic model calibrated for Brazil. The results show the optimal taxes on capital income and labor income in opposite way in both shocks (government spending and productivity). The composition of the government budget changes according to the favoritism towards the poor. The simulations show that the existence of income inequality changes the optimal level of taxes and the reactions to supply and demand shocks, although the fiscal policy has limits. Also, we present evidence that reducing poverty can increase output, eliminating the necessity of transfers and reducing considerably the fluctuations of taxes. Third, we propose a model that is a version of a compe- titive equilibrium of the basic neoclassical growth model, which incorporate income inequality endogenously and heterogeneous agents: poor and rich, allowing us to understand this problem in a dynamic way. We use the Ramsey problem to determine the optimal sequences for the three types of flat-rate tax: capital income, labor income and consumption, in a non-stochastic economy. The analytical solution suggests that in the steady state, optimal tax on capital should always be zero, regardless of the government’s favoritism towards particular agents. Also, the government should finance the transfers to the poor agent using different combinations of taxes on consumption and labor income.

Thesis advisor: Robert G. Murphy
This paper seeks to further establish the effects of fiscal decentralization on income inequality. While many major world organizations, such as the United Nations, and politicians are promoting the use of decentralization policies, their effects on income inequality remain largely unstudied. I add to the literature on fiscal decentralization in order to determine if it should be used as a policy tool designed to decrease income inequality. I empirically study the effects of fiscal decentralization by using a model largely based off of Akai and Sakata (2005). I quantify fiscal decentralization with two measures in order to conclude what form of fiscal decentralization, if any, should be used in order to decrease income inequality. My hope is that this paper contributes to the literature on fiscal decentralization, specifically in providing caution to politicians who haphazardly institute policies calling for increased fiscal decentralization
Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2007
Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
Discipline: College Honors Program

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is the leading international economic crisis manager, but the effects of its loans and conditionality reach far beyond overarching macroeconomic indicators. This paper will examine the consequences of IMF fiscal policy conditions on income inequality and poverty by examining cases in Latin America, and specifically Mexico during the 1980s. The role that internal politics within borrowing countries plays is also closely examined. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for the IMF to ensure the most equitable and effective means of overcoming balance of payments crises.

La question du développement inclusif dans les pays en développement est au cœur de cette thèse. Cette dernière s'articule autour de quatre chapitres sur les questions de politique fiscale et les questions liées à la croissance inclusive. Le chapitre 1 explore comment la politique fiscale de l’Etat affecte l'inclusivité de la croissance dans les pays en développement. Nous observons que la politique fiscale affecte la croissance inclusive de manière significative si et seulement si les pays ont de fortes qualités institutionnelles. En outre, notre résultat montre qu'il existe un seuil optimal au-delà duquel toute augmentation du taux d'imposition négativement la croissance inclusive. Le chapitre 2 examine les effets des composantes des dépenses publiques sur l'équité et la croissance dans les pays d’Afrique subsaharienne, notamment s'il est possible de concevoir des dépenses publiques en vue de promouvoir une société plus équitable sans sacrifier la croissance économique. Notre étude a permis de montrer que l’investissement en infrastructure a contribué à une croissance plus inclusive en Afrique subsaharienne que d'autres dépenses publiques. Ces résultats suggèrent que des programmes temporaires et bien ciblés devraient être mis en place pour aider ceux qui sont laissés pour compte par le processus de croissance. Le chapitre 3 cherche à savoir si les problèmes d’inégalités de revenus se sont posés ou non dans les périodes d'ajustement budgétaire en Côte d'Ivoire au cours de la période 1980-2014. Nos résultats montrent une amélioration de la performance de croissance après les épisodes de consolidation budgétaire, mais aussi des diminutions de l'écart de revenu dans les périodes suivantes les années d’ajustements budgétaires. Enfin, le chapitre 4 évalue la crédibilité des prévisions budgétaires et leurs effets sur le bien-être social dans les pays de la CEMAC et de l'UEMOA. Nous sommes aboutis aux résultats que l'inefficacité des prévisions budgétaires se produit dans la plupart des cas parce que les erreurs de prévisions sont proportionnelles à la prévision elle-même, mais aussi parce que les erreurs passées sont répétées dans le temps. En outre, une partie des erreurs de prévision des recettes peut s'expliquer par des chocs aléatoires survenus dans l'économie. Par conséquent, ces erreurs dans les prévisions de revenus considérées comme des chocs de politique budgétaire ont un effet négatif sur la croissance inclusive
The issue of inclusive development in developing countries is at the heart of this thesis. The latter revolves around four chapters on fiscal policy issues and inclusive growth-related matters. Chapter 1 explores how government tax policy affects the inclusiveness of growth in developing countries. Evidence is shown that tax policy affects significantly inclusive growth if and only if the countries have a strong institution quality like low corruption and a good bureaucratic policy. In addition, our result shows that there is an optimal tax beyond which, any increase in the personal income tax rate should have negative impact on inclusive growth. The Chapter 2 examines the effects of government expenditure components on both equity and growth in sub-Saharan countries, especially whether it is possible to design public spending to promote a more equitable society without sacrificing economic growth. We find that investment in infrastructure contributed to more inclusive growth in Sub-sub Saharan African economies than others government spending. These results suggest that temporary and well-targeted programs should be implemented to help those being left out by the growth process. The Chapter 3 investigates whether income inequality matters in the periods of fiscal adjustments in Côte d’Ivoire over the period 1980-2014. The results show an improvement in growth performance after fiscal consolidations episodes, but also income gap decreases in the periods ahead fiscal adjustments. Lastly, Chapter 4 assesses the credibility of fiscal forecasts and their social effects in CEMAC and WAEMU countries. We obtain evidence that the inefficiency of fiscal forecast occurs in most time because the forecast deviation is proportional to the forecast itself, but also because the past errors are repeated in the present. Furthermore, a part of revenue forecast errors can be explained by random shocks to the economy. Therefore, these errors in revenue forecast considered as fiscal policy shocks has a detrimental effect on inclusive growth

This thesis investigates economic aspects of the measurement of fiscal decentralisation to establish how a nation's fiscal arrangements can be consistently measured, so they can be compared internationally. A new index of fiscal decentralisation is developed that reflects two key elements of the theory of fiscal decentralisation: the fiscal autonomy of subnational governments; and their fiscal importance. The role of fiscal inequality in subnational governments' public finances is also considered. The thesis consists of nine chapters which are distinct but closely related. These nine chapters can be divided into the three

This thesis consists of three essays concerned with endogenous fiscal policy and its interaction with political economy constraints. The first essay presented in Chapter 2 examines the cyclical behavior of endogenous government consumption over the business cycle absent a commitment mechanism in a neoclassical economy with Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks and investment shocks. Tax rates that finance public consumption are chosen in a time consistent way in a dynamic game between the government and a representative agent that values public goods in his utility. It is found that government consumption set without commitment behaves procyclical in response to the mentioned shocks. The government-consumption-output ratio is mildly procyclical or countercyclical depending on the selected calibration. Particularly, the elasticity of substitution between private and public goods plays an important role. The second essay showed in Chapter 3 extends the model studied in Chapter 2 adding agent heterogeneity in wealth and labor productivity. The aim of this study is to identify how policy outcomes are affected by inequality of households, particularly the median voter's choice of tax rates that finance public goods. For a standard RBC calibration to the U.S. economy the result is a strong procyclical comovement of public consumption with output, and a relatively weak procyclical comovement of the output share of public consumption with output, that becomes stronger with rising inequality. The politico-economic channel induces causality from output to lagged tax rates, therefore after a Hicks neutral productivity shock the median voter tries to delay the increase in the tax rate, such that the increment will take place just after the accumulation of more capital. In the case of equal agents the response is to decrease the tax rate in the first year after the shock. Additionally, the model predicts that the size of government consumption decreases with inequality. The last essay in Chapter 4 presents a stylized model of external sovereign debt that incorporates corruption in the form of rent-seeking groups by which the choice to cooperate or non-cooperate in providing public goods, in extracting rents and in issuing debt, is endogenized. More than one rent-seeking group originates a "tragedy of the commons" over fiscal resources that make the borrower economy to show collective fiscal impatience. External creditors envision that impatience and require higher interest rates for buying bonds, exacerbating the problem of high debt. The high level of interest rates decreases the wealth of the country and endangers its ability to repay the debt. We show that bailout plans, defined as temporary loans with lower than market level interest rates, are not effective in such economies.

Orientador: Marcos Simão Figueiras
Resumo: O presente trabalho, em síntese, tem por objetivo investigar como o princípio da capacidade contributiva, previsto no artigo 145, § 1°, da Constituição Federal, tem sido aplicado pelo Supremo Tribunal Federal. Parte-se do pressuposto de que o Estado como instituição politicamente organizada atrai para si atribuições destinadas ao desenvolvimento e bem estar social dos cidadãos e que estes, por sua vez, devem contribuir financeiramente para o custeio das atividades desenvolvidas pelo Estado. Neste contexto, a imposição tributária se instala como contribuição de cada indivíduo em prol da coletividade. É justamente esta possibilidade de cada indivíduo concorrer para o financiamento do Estado, ou seja, a medida do sacrifício individual que o Estado poderá legitimamente cobrar revela a importância do princípio da capacidade contributiva como requisito a ser avaliado para garantir justiça na imposição tributária. Neste passo, a pesquisa se justifica para averiguar se há compatibilidade entre a interpretação dada pela doutrina e a jurisprudência da Corte Suprema do Brasil. A pesquisa parte da premissa de que a forma de tributação de Estado pode ser um instrumento de redução da desigualdade e promoção da cidadania e, desta forma, pretende contribuir para fomentar as discussões sobre a justiça fiscal no país.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate the progress of the contributory capacity, provided for in article 145, paragraph 1, of the Federal Constitution, which has been applied by the Federal Supreme Court. The State has a political organization to attract and the attributions to the development and social welfare of the citizens and that, in turn, contribute financially to the cost of activities rich by the State. In this context, taxation imposes itself as a contribution of each individual to the benefit of the collectivity. It is possible that each individual competes for state funding, that is, a measure of individual sacrifice that can be assessed to do justice to taxation. In this article, the research is justified to ascertain if there is any difference between a given given by the doctrine and a jurisprudence of the Supreme Court of Brazil. The formation of an instrument to reduce inequality and promote citizenship and, thus, the use of an instrument to reduce inequality and promote citizenship in the country.
Mestre

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine three distributional issues in macroeconomics. First I explore the effects fiscal federalism on economic growth across regions in China. Using the comprehensive official data set of China for 31 regions from 1952 until 1999, I investigate a number of indicators used by the literature to measure federalism and find robust support for only one such measure: the ratio of local total revenue to local tax revenue. Using a difference-in-difference approach and exploiting the two-year gap in the implementation of a tax reform across different regions of China, I also identify a positive relationship between fiscal federalism and regional economic growth. The second paper hypothesizes that an inequitable distribution of income negatively affects the rule of law in resource-rich economies and provides robust evidence in support of this hypothesis. By investigating a data set that contains 193 countries and using econometric methodologies such as the fixed effects estimator and the generalized method of moments estimator, I find that resource-abundance improves the quality of institutions, as long as income and wealth disparity remains below a certain threshold. When inequality moves beyond this threshold, the positive effects of the resource-abundance level on institutions diminish quickly and turn negative eventually. This paper, thus, provides robust evidence about the endogeneity of institutions and the role income and wealth inequality plays in the determination of long-run growth rates. The third paper sets up a dynamic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to investigate the causal channels which run from a concern for international status to long-run economic growth. The simulation results show that the initial distribution of income and wealth play an important role in whether agents gain or lose from globalization.

China's economic development has performed spectacularly during the period of China's economic transition as a result of radical economic reform in the all markets. The country has also gone through extensive fiscal reforms in the last three decades. However, a number of problems have been associated with such rapid economic growth. One of these has been raising inequality. In both Keynesian and neoclassical endogenous growth theories, public spending can play an important role for economic growth and inequality. The majority of previous studies have focused on the relationship between public spending and economic growth, or between public spending and inequality separately. There is no doubt that public spending has an effect on both economic growth and equity simultaneously. In this respect, this thesis attempts to address the problems that have emerged during the period of China's fiscal reforms, and seeks to examine the effects of public spending on economic growth and equality in the same model. This thesis investigates the dynamic relationships among these three variables in China. For aggregate national data, vector error correction model (VECM) has been used. Analysis at the provincial level is based on the panel vector auto-regression (PVAR) model. These methods help to solve the endogeneity in estimations. The national level analysis indicates that total public spending shows a long term Granger causality with GDP per capita, which supports the positive growth effect of public spending in the Keynesian and endogenous growth model. Social public spending has a negative effect on real output per capita in both the short term and long term, but it also has a negative impact on income inequality. Moreover, we find that a higher level of real GDP per capita will increase the level of inequality, but a higher level of inequality has a negative effect on real GDP per capita in the long term. Furthermore, total provincial public spending and provincial social spending have either a non-significant effect on economic growth. On the other hand, the SOEs' investment has a significant, positive growth effect at both the national and provincial level. As for the redistributive role of the public spending, the provincial total public spending and social spending have played an important role on income distribution. Furthermore, the Gini coefficient has a positive effect on the per capita growth rate at the provincial level, but the economic growth has no significant impact on the Gini coefficient.

This dissertation consists of two independent essays on public economics. The first essay studies the consequences of fiscal decentralization on poverty and income inequalities. This essay describes the possible channels through which fiscal decentralization might affect poverty and income inequalities, and carries out an empirical analysis with data of a large number of countries at different stages of development, for the period 1971-2000. Fiscal decentralization is found to have significant effects on poverty and income inequalities. These findings are important because they suggest, contrary to the traditional public finance theory, that sub-national governments can play an important role in the reduction of poverty and income inequalities. The second essay studies the second best solution to the public expenditures’ problem in the presence of a proportional labor income tax. By allowing the tax base to vary with the taxpayers’ behavioral responses to taxation, we derive the “effective” budget constraint faced by the government, which describes the set of affordable combinations of public and private goods. We show that the optimal solution to the government problem corresponds to the point of tangency between the effective budget constraint and the highest attainable social indifference curve. The traditional normative prescription for public expenditures under a second-best scenario does not satisfy this condition, and therefore it provides a suboptimal solution. Finally, we use the same analytical framework in order to explain the flypaper effect, an empirical regularity that has for long challenged the conventional theory.

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Funda????o Jo??o Pinheiro
A Constitui????o Federal de 1988 inova o modelo tradicional de Federalismo, ao conceder aos munic??pios status de ente aut??nomo, e que, portanto, possuem legitimidade politico-institucional e independ??ncia administrativa. As implica????es desse reconhecimento resultam em uma disputa vertical com os demais n??veis de governo, tanto por recursos como pelas responsabilidades de atendimento ??s demandas sociais, e em uma disputa horizontal que remete ao problema da equidade entre os governos subnacionais. Portanto, a cria????o de mecanismos e instrumentos que visem a redu????o das desigualdades ?? condi????o fundamental para a manuten????o do pacto federativo. Este trabalho busca discutir as estrat??gias adotadas pela Federa????o para enfrentar as disparidades inter-regionais, e avaliar em que medida elas contribu??ram no per??odo 2000-2005 para a equaliza????o da capacidade de gastos or??ament??rios, verificando, inclusive, 0 seu impacto sobre as atividades desenvolvidas pelos munic??pios.
Governo e Pol??tica

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This Master s thesis has the scope to deepen the knowledge on state tax incentives regarding ICMS and its misuse as an instrument to accomplish the constitutional objectives considering the Brazilian federalism characteristics. It aims to identify the peculiarities that forged a distorted model in the federative balance that allowed (and even reinforced) the birth and encouragement of what is known as tax harmful competition ; pointing out the various critiques that refute the theoretical notion that ICMS tax incentives represent unquestionably useful instruments in order to foster economic / social development and reduce the regional inequality that subsists in Brazil.
A presente dissertação tem por objetivo aprofundar o entendimento sobre os incentivos fiscais estaduais e a inadequação de seu manejo como instrumento de concretização dos objetivos constitucionais tendo em vista as características do federalismo brasileiro. Busca-se identificar as particularidades que forjaram um modelo com distorções no equilíbrio federativo que permitiram (e mesmo motivaram) a instalação e fortalecimento da guerra fiscal, com apontamento das críticas - sob diversas vertentes que refutam a concepção teórica de que os incentivos fiscais de ICMS consistem em mecanismos inegavelmente úteis para a promoção do desenvolvimento nacional e diminuição das desigualdades regionais.

O presente estudo volta-se à discussão do Federalismo Fiscal na América Latina, em particular nas quatro Federações Brasil, Argentina, México e Venezuela, como instrumento de integração. A proposta de integração desenvolve-se a partir da compreensão do sentido de pobreza, que na região está associado à desigualdade, inserido sobretudo a partir de uma primeira integração digamos, quando houve um encontro entre as civilizações pré-hispânicas e europeia, notadamente Espanha e Portugal, em decorrência da qual se enraízam a pobreza e a exclusão social na sociedade dela resultante. No entanto, passados cinco séculos, entende-se que a integração da América Latina poderá encontrar em oportunidades de participação da sociedade no debate político, e portanto, na inclusão social, uma outra realidade em que a pobreza possa ser reduzida ou extinta. Para tanto, o estudo ora apresentado utiliza da teoria sobre uma ética de participação e distribuição, construída nas democracias latino-americanas. Esse sentido de construção de relações sociais vincula-se à necessidade também de serem estruturadas relações sociais condizentes com a solidariedade social, estabelecendo-se na região instituições próprias que assegurem a redução das desigualdades sociais e que possam revelar um novo e autêntico modelo de integração. As normas jurídicas presentes no Federalismo Fiscal nas quatro Federações mencionadas são valioso instrumento do fortalecimento de um institucionalismo próprio ao ensejo de desenvolvimento regional, com inclusão social em que a conservação do meio ambiente reflete a preocupação com o ser humano. Enfim, a proposta de integração regional está expressa na distribuição e aplicação de receitas arrecadas por meio da tributação ambiental, enlaçando o Federalismo Fiscal próprio e comum às Federações latino-americanas.
This paper then turns to a discussion of Fiscal Federalism in Latin America, particularly in the four Federations Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Venezuela, as an instrument of integration. The proposed integration is developed from the understanding of the meaning of poverty in the region that is associated with inequality , especially inserted from a first integration say, when there was a meeting between the pre - Hispanic and European civilizations , notably Spain and Portugal , as a result of which are rooted poverty and social exclusion resulting in her society. However, after five centuries, it is understood that the integration of Latin America can find opportunities in a society participation in political debate, and therefore, social inclusion, another reality in which poverty can be reduced or extinguished. Thus, the study presented here uses the theory of an ethic of participation and distribution , built in Latin American democracies. This sense of building social relationships linked to the need also to be structured social solidarity, settling in the region institutions that ensure the reduction of social inequalities and that may prove a new and authentic integration model . Legal norms present in Fiscal Federalism in the four Federations mentioned are valuable instrument of strengthening a institutionalism itself and the opportunity for regional development with social inclusion in the conservation of the environment, which reflects a concern with the human being. Finally, the proposed regional integration is expressed in the distribution and application of revenues collected through environmental taxation, linking the Fiscal Federalism itself and common to Latin American Federations.

While the long run productivity of federal highway infrastructure spending has been well researched, their short run effects and effects on income inequality. This dissertation explores those under-researched unconventional effects. In the first chapter, I investigate the effects of federal infrastructure grants on income inequality. I find that grants reduce inequality in both recipient and neighboring states. The reduction is driven by greater income among the bottom three income quintiles. I explore two mechanisms using person level data and find that the reduction in inequality is attributable to higher income for low-skilled workers and workers working in low-skilled industries. In the second chapter, I investigate the role of implementation lags in the ARRA. I find that the employment effects after six months were nearly twice as high in short lag counties compared to long lag counties. However, these effects quickly fade. I find no evidence of implementation lags impacting employment after one year. In the third chapter, I examine the effect of the business cycle on completion times of federally financed transportation infrastructure projects. I find that projects that begin construction during periods of economic slack are completed more quickly, suggesting an alternative mechanism for state dependent fiscal multipliers.

Les crises globales entraînent souvent d'énormes perturbations économiques, qui peuvent durer de nombreuses années. Il est donc important de comprendre leurs conséquences et comment élaborer des politiques efficaces dans la réduction de leurs impacts. Il existe une littérature abondante sur les effets d’une crise au niveau agrégé et le rôle stabilisateur des politiques macroéconomiques. Toutefois, on a accordé beaucoup moins d'attention aux effets distributifs des crises et encore moins aux interactions entre ces effets et l'évolution de l’activité macroéconomique post crise. Si une aggravation des inégalités peut contribuer à une reprise faible de l'activité, alors le système d’impôts et prestations sociales peut être un stabilisateur macroéconomique en sus de son rôle redistributif. Il est donc essentiel de comprendre comment le système peut influer tant sur les effets agrégés, que sur les inégalités en temps de crise. Cette thèse vise à apporter un éclairage neuf sur ces questions, en utilisant de multiples méthodologies et ensembles de données, au niveau micro et macro, dans une approche empirique et théorique.Le premier article fait une évaluation détaillée de l'évolution des inégalités de revenus et des effets redistributifs du système d’impôts et prestations sociales après la crise de 2007-08 aux États-Unis. Utilisant un large éventail d'indicateurs, il examine plusieurs sections de la distribution de revenus et analyse la contribution des différentes composantes du système d’impôts et prestations sociales. Le second article développe une nouvelle méthode pour modéliser la distribution de revenus disponibles et décomposer l’évolution de celle-ci dans le temps, utilisant une double approche microéconométrique et de microsimulation. Il l’applique à l'étude de l'évolution de la distribution de revenus au Portugal après la crise de 2007-08 en tenant compte des effets de la crise et des politiques de relance et de consolidation budgétaire. Le troisième article développe un modèle théorique DSGE à agents hétérogènes, avec une hétérogénéité à la fois ex-ante et ex-post des ménages et assurance chômage. Il présente les résultats d'une première expérience quantitative, étudiant les effets distributifs et agrégés d'une crise et le rôle de l'assurance chômage pour ces effets, sous plusieurs scénarios hypothétiques de crise.Plusieurs conclusions émergent des résultats obtenus dans cette thèse. Premièrement, les crises globales peuvent avoir des effets très hétérogènes et persistants sur la répartition de revenus, particulièrement pénalisants pour les ménages à faible revenu. Deuxièmement, le système d’impôts et prestations sociales peut jouer un rôle crucial dans l'évolution de la distribution de revenus à la suite d'une crise. Un système fort peut amortir une augmentation des inégalités induite par la crise, tandis qu'un système faible peut les aggraver. Troisièmement, non seulement la magnitude, mais aussi la conception du système affecte son rôle en temps de crise. En particulier, un instrument plus progressif aura un effet stabilisateur plus important qu'un instrument uniforme. Quatrièmement, les politiques de stabilisation des agrégats économiques en temps de crise peuvent avoir des effets importants sur la répartition de revenus. En particulier, la mise en œuvre de mesures de consolidation peut renforcer les pertes de revenus induites par la crise et augmenter l'hétérogénéité des effets d'une crise. Enfin, l'hétérogénéité des ménages et de l’assurance sociale jouent un rôle important dans la transmission d'une crise globale à l’activité économique. La contraction de la consommation agrégée suite à une crise sera plus accentuée dans un monde où les ménages sont hétérogènes à la fois ex ante et ex post que dans un monde où l'hétérogénéité est uniquement ex post. De plus, une crise impliquera une contraction de la consommation agrégée plus faible dans un monde avec assurance sociale que dans un monde sans assurance sociale
Aggregate crises often bring tremendous economic disruptions, which may persist for many years. Understanding their consequences and how to effectively design crisis-coping policies is therefore of capital importance. The aggregate effects of crises and the stabilising role of macroeconomic policies have been significantly studied in the literature. Much less attention, however, has been given to the distributional effects of crises and even less to the possible interactions between these effects and the post-crisis evolution of aggregate outcomes. If a crisis-led increase in inequality can feedback into an anemic recovery of economic activity, then the tax and transfer system may have a role in stabilising not only the income distribution but also the macroeconomy. Understanding how the system may affect both distributional and aggregate developments in a crisis aftermath is therefore key. This thesis aims at shedding new light on these issues, using multiple methodologies and datasets both at the micro and macro level, applying both an empirical and theoretical approach.The first paper provides a detailed assessment of the evolution of income inequality and the redistributive effects of the tax and transfer system following the 2007-2008 crisis, in the US. Using a wide range of indicators, it looks at several sections of the income distribution and analyses the contribution of different components of the tax and transfer system. The second paper develops a new method to model the household disposable income distribution and decompose changes in this distribution over time, integrating both a microeconometric and microsimulation approach. It applies the method to the study of changes in the income distribution in Portugal following the 2007-2008 crisis, accounting for the effects of the crisis and of the aftermath fiscal stimulus and consolidation policies. The third paper develops a theoretical heterogeneous agents DSGE model, with both ex-ante and ex-post household heterogeneity and unemployment insurance. It presents the results of a first quantitative experiment, studying the distributional and aggregate effects of a crisis and the role of unemployment insurance in shaping these effects, under several hypothetical crisis scenarios.Several conclusions can be drawn from the results obtained in this thesis. First, aggregate crises may have substantial heterogeneous effects across the income distribution, being particularly penalising for lower income groups, and these effects may be highly persistent. Second, the tax and transfer system can crucially shape distributional developments following a crisis. A strong tax and transfer system may fully cushion a crisis-led increase in inequality, while a weak one may deepen it. Beyond the effects of automatic stabilisers, discretionary policy choices may have substantial effects. Third, not only the size but also the design of the tax and transfer system matters for its role in times of crisis. In particular, a more progressive instrument will have a higher stabilising effect than a flat one, both at the distributional and aggregate level. Fourth, policies aimed at stabilising aggregate outcomes in times of crisis may have significant "collateral" effects on the income distribution. In particular, the implementation of consolidation measures may reinforce income losses induced by the contractionary effects of the crisis and increase the heterogeneity of the effects of a crisis on households' incomes. Finally, household heterogeneity and social insurance matter for the transmission of an aggregate crisis to aggregate outcomes. A crisis will lead to a higher contraction of aggregate consumption in a world where there are both ex-ante and ex-post sources of household heterogeneity than in a world where there is only ex-post heterogeneity. Furthermore, a crisis will imply a smaller contraction of aggregate consumption in a world with social insurance than in a world without

Cette thèse se pose la question de savoir comment la politique budgétaire pourrait être utilisée à des fins de financement du développement. Elle identifie et explore les canaux par lesquels les pays en développement peuvent efficacement mobiliser les ressources (internes et externes) pour le financement du développement. Pour cela, nous conduisons des recherches axées sur les politiques économiques (en utilisant des outils statistiques et économétriques appropriés) et nous formulons des recommandations de politiques économiques aux pays en développement. La première partie de cette thèse s’intéresse à la question de la mobilisation des ressources externes dans les pays en développement (Chapitre 1 et Chapitre 2). Dans le Chapitre 1, nous analysons les effets des dépenses publiques sur les spreads de taux dans les pays émergents. Nous montrons que les pays en développement pourraient avoir un meilleur accès aux marchés financiers internationaux en augmentant leurs investissements publics et en réduisant leurs dépenses courantes. Plus précisément, les dépenses en capital humain (éducation et santé) et autres infrastructures publiques réduisent considérablement les spreads de taux. Ils devraient également améliorer la qualité de la gouvernance puisque les marchés financiers récompensent les pays bien gouvernés à travers de meilleures conditions d'emprunt. Nous examinons, dans le Chapitre 2, la force des règles de politiques budgétaires en termes d’amélioration de l’accès des marchés financiers internationaux par les pays en développement. Nous trouvons que l’adoption de règles budgétaires réduit les taux d’intérêts sur la détention des obligations d’Etat souverains et par conséquent améliore l’accès aux marchés financiers. Nous expliquons ce résultat par le canal de la crédibilité de la politique budgétaire : les gouvernements crédibles sont récompensés sur les marchés financiers internationaux par de faibles taux d’intérêt et des notations élevées des dettes souveraines. Nos résultats prouvent que l’adoption et la bonne mise en œuvre des règles de politiques budgétaires constitue un moyen substantiel pour les décideurs publics d’améliorer l’accès des pays en développement aux marchés financiers internationaux. La deuxième partie de cette thèse se focalise sur ce que les pays en développement pourraient faire pour améliorer la mobilisation des ressources internes (Chapitre 3 et Chapitre 4). En effet, nous explorons la relation entre l’adoption des règles budgétaires et la réduction des inégalités de revenus (Chapitre 3) et nous trouvons que l’adoption des règles budgétaires réduit les inégalités de revenus. Ces pays pourront financer leur développement de façon soutenable (à travers la réduction des inégalités) en adoptant des règles budgétaires. En outre, nous évaluons les effets de la lutte contre les flux financiers illicites sur la mobilisation de recettes fiscales (Chapitre 4). Nous révélons que les pays qui respectent les Recommandations du Groupe d’Action Financière (GAFI) en matière de lutte contre le blanchiment d’argent et le financement du terrorisme (pays coopératifs) enregistrent des montants de recettes fiscales plus élevés comparativement aux pays qui ne respectent pas ces Recommandations (pays non coopératifs). Par conséquent, les pays en développement pourront mobiliser plus de recettes fiscales en mettant en œuvre des politiques visant à empêcher les flux financiers illicites. Par ailleurs, ils doivent mettre en place de bonnes institutions
The central question of this thesis is how fiscal policy could be used for development finance purposes. Indeed, we identify and investigate pathways through which developing states can mobilize resources to improve sustainable development. For this purpose, we conduct policy-oriented researches (using suitable statistical and econometrical tools) and provide advices for developing countries. The first part of the dissertation addresses the issue of external resources mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 1 and Chapter 2). In Chapter 1, we investigate the effects of public expenditures on sovereign bond spreads in emerging market countries. We show that developing countries could have a better access to international financial market by supporting public investment and reducing current spending. Specifically, spending on human capital (education and health) and other public infrastructures significantly reduce bond spreads. They should also improve the quality of governance since financial markets award well-governed countries with better borrowing conditions. We examine, in Chapter 2, the strength of fiscal rules in terms of improving financial markets access for developing countries. We find that the adoption of fiscal rules reduces sovereign bond spreads and consequently improve financial market access. Indeed, this result is explained by the credibility of fiscal policy channel: more credible governments are rewarded in the international financial markets with low sovereign bond spreads and high sovereign debt ratings. Our findings confirm that the adoption and sound implementation of fiscal rules is an instrument for policy makers to improve developing countries’ financial market access. The second part of the dissertation focuses on what developing countries could do to improve internal resources mobilization (Chapter 3 and Chapter 4). As a matter of fact, we explore the relationship between fiscal rules and inequality (Chapter 3) and find that fiscal rules adoption contributes to reduce inequality in developing countries. The policy implication is that developing countries could finance their development in a sustainable way (via the reduction of inequalities) by adopting fiscal rules. Moreover, we assess the effects of combating illicit financial flows on domestic tax revenue mobilization in developing countries (Chapter 4). We highlight that countries which cooperate with international standards for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) are more able to mobilize tax revenue than countries which do not cooperate. Consequently, developing countries could mobilize more domestic tax revenue by implementing policies to curtail illicit financial flows. They should establish sound institutions

Cette thèse a pour but de contribuer à la connaissance des facteurs et processus politiques agissant sur les finances des collectivités locales. Cette problématique est étudiée à partir d'une analyse empirique des comptes des communes françaises. Les deux premiers chapitres de cette thèse visent à étudier les liens entre décideurs politiques de différents échelons de pouvoir public et leur impact sur l'allocation territoriale de fonds publics d'investissement. L'analyse se concentre sur les subventions d'investissement reçues par les municipalités, et montre un impact important du cumul des mandats ainsi que de la carrière d'élu local des responsables politiques nationaux sur l'allocation de ces transferts. Le troisième chapitre de cette thèse vise à évaluer l'impact des inégalités de revenu au niveau municipal sur les décisions de finance publique locale. Cette analyse s'inscrit dans une abondante littérature en Économie Politique visant à déterminer l'impact de la distribution des revenus sur les processus de décision publique. Les résultats montrent un rôle significatif des inégalités de revenu sur les niveaux d'infrastructure publique municipale et de taxation locale
This thesis aims at bringing new knowledge on political factors and processes affecting local governments. This investigation is made through an empirical analysis of French municipalities’ accounts. The first two chapters of this thesis investigate the impact of links between politicians of different tiers of government on the territorial allocation of public investment funds. The analysis focuses on discretionary investment grants received by municipalities. Evidence shows an important impact of multiple office-holding, and a significant influence of top national politicians’ career in local councils on the allocation of these transfers. The third chapter of this thesis aims at studying the impact of local income inequality on local public decisions. This work contributes to an important literature in Political Economy on the impact of income distribution on political processes. Evidence suggests a significant role of income inequality on local public investment and local taxation

1. Può un Modello DSGE spiegare una disinflazione costosa? Questo lavoro mostra che un modello DSGE non è in grado di spiegare una disinflazione costosa con indicizzazione parziale e bassa dei prezzi e dei salari. Il modello invece è in grado di replicare una disinflazione recessiva sostituendo il meccanismo di modellizazione delle rigidità nominali di Calvo (1983) con quello di Rotemberg (1982). 2. Disinflazione e Diseguaglianza in un Modello Monetario DSGE: Un’Analisi di Welfare Questo lavoro analizza gli effetti redistributivi di una politica disinflazionistica in un modello DSGE con Partecipazione Limitata ai Mercati degli Assets. Due sono i meccanismi che guidano a distribuzione del consumo e del reddito: il markup delle imprese e il cosiddetto vincolo cash in advance. I risultati suggeriscono che la disinflazione aumenta inequivocabilmente la diseguaglianza con il meccanismo di Rotemberg. Invece con il meccanismo di Calvo questo effetto viene ottenuto soltanto se le imprese non sono costrette ad indebitarsi per finanziare il fattore lavoro. 3. Consolidamento Fiscale e Consumatori Rule of Thumb Questo lavoro simula un esperimento di consolidamento fiscale in un modello DSGE con partecipazione limitata ai mercati degli assets. I risultati mostrano che durante un processo di consolidamento fiscale riduzioni temporanee delle tasse o aumenti temporanei di transfers consentono sia di ridurre il debito che stimolare il consumo.
1. Can a DSGE Model Explain a Costly Disinflation? This paper shows that a medium scale DSGE model fails to explain a costly disinflation with low and partial indexation of prices and wages. Alternatively to Calvo (1982) price setting, with the Rotemberg (1982) framework the model can replicate a recessionary disinflation for any indexation degree. 2. Disinflation and Inequality in a DSGE Monetary Model: A Welfare Analysis This paper investigates the redistributive effects of a disinflation experiment in a standard DSGE model with Limited Asset Market Participation. There are two key mechanisms driving consumption and income distribution: firms’ markup and the cash in advance channel. Results show that disinflation unambiguously increases inequality under Rotemberg. Under Calvo this effect only obtains if the cash in advance doesn’t bind firms ability to finance their working capital. 3. Fiscal Consolidation and Rule of Thumb Consumers: Gain With or Without Pain? This paper simulates a fiscal consolidation in a medium scale DSGE model augmented with Limited Asset Market Participation. Results show that during the consolidation process temporary tax reductions or temporary transfer increases allow to both reduce public debt and boost consumption. A countercyclical monetary policy is an effective complement to fiscal policy as stabilization tool.

My thesis contains essays on voting theory, market structures and fiscal federalism: (i) One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation, (ii) Runoff Elections and the Condorcet Loser, (iii) On the Influence of Rankings when Product Quality Depends on Buyer Characteristics, and (iv) Redistributing Income under Fiscal Vertical Imbalance.

(i) One Person, Many Votes: Divided Majority and Information Aggregation (joint with Micael Castanheira)

In elections, majority divisions pave the way to focal manipulations and coordination failures, which can lead to the victory of the wrong candidate. This paper shows how this flaw can be addressed if voter preferences over candidates are sensitive to information. We consider two potential sources of divisions: majority voters may have similar preferences but opposite information about the candidates, or opposite preferences. We show that when information is the source of majority divisions, Approval Voting features a unique equilibrium with full information and coordination equivalence. That is, it produces the same outcome as if both information and coordination problems could be resolved. Other electoral systems, such as Plurality and Two-Round elections, do not satisfy this equivalence. The second source of division is opposite preferences. Whenever the fraction of voters with such preferences is not too large, Approval Voting still satisfies full information and coordination equivalence.

(ii) Runoff Elections and the Condorcet Loser

A crucial component of Runoff electoral systems is the threshold fraction of votes above which a candidate wins outright in the first round. I analyze the influence of this threshold on the voting equilibria in three-candidate Runoff elections. I demonstrate the existence of an Ortega Effect which may unduly favor dominated candidates and thus lead to the election of the Condorcet Loser in equilibrium. The reason is that, contrarily to commonly held beliefs, lowering the threshold for first-round victory may actually induce voters to express their preferences excessively. I also extend Duverger's Law to Runoff elections with any threshold below, equal or above 50%. Therefore, Runoff elections are plagued with inferior equilibria that induce either too high or too low expression of preferences.

(iii) On the Influence of Rankings when Product Quality Depends on Buyer Characteristics

Information on product quality is crucial for buyers to make sound choices. For "experience products", this information is not available at the time of the purchase: it is only acquired through consumption. For much experience products, there exist institutions that provide buyers with information about quality. It is commonly believed that such institutions help consumers to make better choices and are thus welfare improving.

The quality of various experience products depends on the characteristics of buyers. For instance, conversely to the quality of cars, business school quality depends on buyers (i.e. students) characteristics. Indeed, one of the main inputs of a business school is enrolled students. The choice of buyers for such products has then some features of a coordination problem: ceteris paribus, a buyer prefers to buy a product consumed by buyers with "good" characteristics. This coordination dimension leads to inefficiencies when buyers coordinate on products of lower "intrinsic" quality. When the quality of products depends on buyer characteristics, information about product quality can reinforce such a coordination problem. Indeed, even though information of high quality need not mean high intrinsic quality, rational buyers pay attention to this information because they prefer high quality products, no matter the reason of the high quality. Information about product quality may then induce buyers to coordinate on products of low intrinsic quality.

In this paper, I show that, for experience products which quality depends on the characteristics of buyers, more information is not necessarily better. More precisely, I prove that more information about product quality may lead to a Pareto deterioration, i.e. all buyers may be worse off due.

(iv) Redistributing Income under Fiscal Vertical Imbalance (joint with Marjorie Gassner and Vincenzo Verardi)

From the literature on decentralization, it appears that the fiscal vertical imbalance (i.e. the dependence of subnational governments on national government revenues to support their expenditures) is somehow inherent to multi-level governments. Using a stylized model we show that this leads to a reduction of the extent of redistributive fiscal policies if the maximal size of government has been reached. To test for this empirically, we use some high quality data from the LIS dataset on individual incomes. The results are highly significant and point in the direction of our theoretical predictions.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis is composed of three distinct but related essays. The first essay studies the role of the size of the economy in mitigating the impact of public sector corruption on economic development. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which growth occurs endogenously through the invention and manufacture of new intermediate goods that are used in the production of output. Potential innovators decide to enter the market considering the fraction of future profits that may be lost to corruption. We find that depending on the number of times bribes are demanded, the size of the economy may be an important factor in determining the effects of corruption on innovation and economic growth. The second essay presents an occupational choice model in which a household can choose either formal or informal entrepreneurship or at the subsistence livelihood. Credit market constraints and initial wealth conditions (bequest) determine an agent's occupational choice. Corruption arises when bureaucrats exchange investment permits for bribes. Corruption worsens credit market constraints. Equilibrium with corruption is characterised by an increase (decrease) in informal (formal) entrepreneurship and a decrease in formal entrepreneurship wealth. Since corruption-induced credit constrained households choose informal entrepreneurship as opposed to subsistence livelihood income in the formal sector, the informal economy is shown to mitigate the extent of income inequality. The third essay explains the role of bureaucratic corruption in undermining public service delivery, public finance, and economic development through incentivising tax evasion. The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which a taxable household observes the quality of public services and decides whether or not to fulfil his tax obligation. Bureaucratic corruption compromises the quality of public services such that a taxable household develops incentives to evade tax payment. We show that corruption-induced tax evasion increases the likelihood of a budget deficit, renders tax payable increase counter-productive, and aggravates the negative effect of bureaucratic corruption on economic development.

The overall objective of the thesis is to investigate needs and incentives of all income/wealth groups in order to explore ways and means to remedy the excessive economic inequality. A closer examination of individual decisions across richer and poorer households allows us to recognize conflicts of wants, needs and values and subsequently to draw recommendations for future policies. The first chapter examines households' preferences over the redistribution of wealth resources. The preferences of voting households are restricted by agents' present and future resource constraints. The wealth resources vary over the business cycle, which affects the grounds for speculations of voting households. We augment the standard Real-Business-Cycle (RBC) model by the majority voting on lump-sum redistribution employing a balanced government budget. Our findings indicate that for the usual elasticity of labor supply both transfers' level and share of output are procyclical, with the procyclicality increasing in the discrepancy between richer and poorer households. In the second chapter we analytically demonstrate that all economic agents face subsistence costs that hinder economic and financial decisions of the poor. We find that the standard two-asset portfolio-selection model with a time-invariant subsistence component in the common-across agents Stone-Geary utility function is capable of explaining qualitatively and quantitatively three empirical regularities: (i) increasing saving rates in wealth, (ii) rising risky portfolio shares with wealth, (iii) more volatile consumption growth of the richer. On the contrary, "keeping-up-with-the-Joneses" utility with a time-varying weighted mean consumption produces identical saving rates and portfolio asset shares across richer and poorer agents, failing to match the micro data. Finally, in the third chapter we use Epstein-Zin-Weil recursive preferences altered to include subsistence costs, as this form of utility function enables trade-off between stability and safety. We pursue an analytical investigation of a more complex multi-asset portfolio-choice model with perfectly insurable labor risk and no liquidity constraints and find further support of the data evidence. If households' total resources are anticipated to increase over time, poorer agents can afford to gradually escape subsistence concerns by choosing lower saving rates and accepting only minor portfolio risks as their consumption hovers close to the subsistence needs. The calibration part of the model economy shows that analytical results can quantitatively reconcile the data, too.

Le 1er chapitre présente une série de 50 ans sur les hauts revenus chiliens basée sur des données fiscales et comptes nationaux. L’étude contredit les enquêtes, selon lesquelles les inégalités diminuent les 25 dernières années. Au contraire, elles changent de direction à partir de 2000. Le Chili est parmi les pays les plus inégalitaires de l’OCDE et l’Amérique latine. Le 2ème chapitre mesure la sous-estimation des revenus factoriels dans les données distributives. Les ménages ne reçoivent que 50% des revenus du capital brut, par opposition aux firmes. L’hétérogénéité des taux de réponse et autres problèmes font que les enquêtes ne capturent que 20% de ceux-ci, contre 70% du revenu du travail. Cela sous-estime l’inégalité,dont les estimations deviennent insensibles à la "capital share" et sa distribution. Je formalise à partir d’identités comptables pour ensuite calculer des effets marginaux et contributions aux variations d’inégalité. Le 3ème chapitre présente une méthode pour ajuster les enquêtes. Celles-ci capturent souvent mal le sommet de la distribution. La méthode présente plusieurs avantages par rapport aux options précédentes : elle est compatible avec les méthodes de calibration standard ; elle a des fondements probabilistes explicites et préserve la continuité des fonctions de densité ; elle offre une option pour surmonter les limites des supports d’enquête bornées; et elle préserve la structure de micro données en préservant la représentativité des variables sociodémographiques. Notre procédure est illustrée par des applications dans cinq pays, couvrant à la fois des contextes développés et moins développés
The 1st chapter presents historical series of Chilean top income shares over a period of half a century, mostly using data from tax statistics and national accounts. The study contradicts evidence based on survey data, according to which inequality has fallen constantly over the past 25 years. Rather, it changes direction, increasing from around the year 2000. Chile ranks as one of the most unequal countries among both OECD and Latin American countries over the whole period of study. The 2nd chapter measures the underestimation of factor income in distributive data. I find that households receive only half of national gross capital income,as opposed to corporations. Due to heterogeneous non-response and misreporting, Surveys only capture 20% of it, vs. 70% of labor income. This understates inequality estimates, which become insensitive to the capital share and its distribution. I formalize this system based on accounting identities. I then compute marginal effects and contributions to changes in fractile shares. The 3rd chapter, presents a method to adjust surveys. These generally fail to capturethe top of the income distribution. It has several advantages over previous ones: it is consistent with standard survey calibration methods; it has explicit probabilistic foundations and preserves the continuity of density functions; it provides an option to overcome the limitations of bounded survey-supports; and it preserves the microdata structure of the survey

Cette thèse consiste en trois essais sur les réponses des individus aux systèmes fiscaux et à la taxation. Le premier chapitre, "Partial Unemployment Insurance and Hour Decisions", mesure l'impact des incitations contenues dans le programme d'activité réduite. L'activité réduite (AR) permet aux chômeurs qui travaillent de garder leurs allocations chômage sous conditions. Nous exploitons comme quasi-expérimentation la réforme de 2006 en France, qui consiste en une baisse de 20% du seuil horaire. La réforme a significativement augmenté la probabilité conditionnelle de choisir une AR peu intensive. Le second chapitre, "Potential Drivers of Undeclared Work", explore les déterminants potentiels de l'activité dissimulée en France et en Europe. Cette étude utilise une enquête pilote examinant les comportements d'activité dissimulée des ménages en France (EPMF). Nos résultats montrent que l'hétérogénéité individuelle (la perception de l'entourage, les sanctions et les valeurs civiques) sont positivement corrélées à l'activité dissimulée. A l'aide d'une enquête semblable, nous obtenons des résultats comparables au niveau européen. Le troisième chapitre, "Top-income tax avoidance and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from the Panama Papers" explique l'impact des scandales sur les préférences pour la redistribution. Les Panama Papers sont utilisés comme quasi-expérimentation: ce scandale exogène a mis en lumière les comportements d'optimisation fiscale des ménages. Après le scandale, les individus sont plus en faveur des politiques de redistribution: les scandales financiers encouragent une mise à jour de la perception des inégalités
This dissertation gathers three essays on behavioral responses to fiscal systems and benefits.The first chapter, ``Partial Unemployment Insurance and Hour Decisions", measures how financial incentives in Partial Unemployment Insurance (PUI) programs affect job uptake. PUI programs allow jobseekers to keep their benefits when working if the job abides by eligibility conditions. We exploit as a quasi-experiment the 2006 French PUI reform consisting in a decrease in the hour threshold. The main finding is that the reform significantly increased the conditional probability to take up a PUI job below the new hour threshold. A narrowed benefit availability contributes to a decline in worked hours for PUI claimants.The second chapter, ``Potential Drivers of Undeclared Work", investigates undeclared work in France and Europe. This study exploits a unique pilot survey on supply and demand of households. We find that the social circle, autoestimated risk and sanctions and civic values are strongly correlated with undeclared work. Individual heterogeneity adds up but is not substitutable to standard socio-demographic variables. Using the Eurobarometer survey, we find comparable estimates at the European level.The third chapter, ``Top income tax evasion and redistribution preferences: Evidence from the Panama Papers" attempts to explain changes in perceived inequality after worldwide fiscal scandals. I exploit as an exogeneous shock the 2016 Panama Papers scandal revealing top-income households' tax avoidance. I find that, post-scandal, stated preferences for redistribution strongly increases. Using additional data, I find consistent results at the European level

La couverture sanitaire universelle (CSU) est considérée comme un pilier des objectifs de développement durable 2015-2030. Cette thèse se propose d’éclairer le débat sur la soutenabilité financière de la CSU et son impact sur des variables micro- et macro-économiques à l’aide d’un modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable, associé à des techniques de microsimulation. Le premier chapitre présente le modèle théorique calibré pour refléter les principales caractéristiques des pays en développement. Les résultats montrent, pour deux modalités du financement de la CSU, comment peut varier le degré de protection financière contre les risques maladies. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous adaptons le modèle général au contexte particulier de la Palestine pour analyser l’effet de la mise en œuvre de la CSU sur le budget du gouvernent et le bien-être de la population. Les résultats démontrent qu’une expansion en parallèle de la CSU sur la population et les services de soins peut améliorer le bien-être des ménages. Néanmoins, dans des conditions d'espace budgétaire limité, cette expansion s’avère insoutenable à long-terme, appelant ainsi à un ajustement de la politique fiscale. Le troisième chapitre se consacre à l’évaluation des inégalités intergénérationnelles induites par le choix des politiques visant à assurer la pérennité de la CSU. Nous proposons une mesure permettant d’évaluer les transferts intergénérationnels liés au fardeau de la CSU. Les résultats montrent que, dans des conditions d'espace budgétaire limité, le choix des politiques peut impliquer un arbitrage entre la soutenabilité financière de la CSU et différents degrés d’inégalités intergénérationnelles
Universal Health Coverage (UHC) has received during the last decade a revived interest by policy-makers, international organizations and researchers worldwide. There has been hitherto no theoretical-empirical work that can enable to assess the feasibility of UHC and its potential effects at both micro- and macro-economic levels. This thesis presents an operationalizing theoretical framework that is capable of addressing the above issues using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and microsimulation technique. The first chapter presents the DSGE model that is calibrated to capture the salient features of an archetype developing economy. Results illustrate how the degree of financial-risk protection can vary with the financing-mix used to implement the UHC reform. The second chapter assesses the macro-fiscal conduciveness of UHC reforms and its impact on welfare and public finance in the particular context of Palestine. Results show that while UHC can enhance welfare, a parallel expansion of the breadth and width of coverage may not be feasible unless a policy adjustment is undertaken. The third chapter examines the potential impact of UHC reforms on intergenerational inequalities in view of fiscal sustainability. The question of who bears the burden of the UHC is addressed using an overlapping generation model, while a convenient measure to assess the social impact of UHC-financing strategies is proposed. Results show that under conditions of limited fiscal space, the choice between deferred-debt and current UHC-financing implies a trade-off between fiscal sustainability against intergenerational inequality, with which the policy-maker will have to confront

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The spin-1=2 and spin-1 Ising models, as well as the spin-1 Blume-Capel model have been studied in one-, two-, and three-dimensional lattices. A variational method based on Bogoliubov inequality for the free-energy has been employed. The trial Hamiltonians consist of clusters of free spins, pairs of spins, and a combination of free spins and pairs of spins. For the three approximations, the thermodynamic quantities of interest have been calculated, together with the critical transition temperature and the behavior close to the transition, in the latter case in order to compute the corresponding critical exponents. The results have been compared to each other as well with exact results, when available, or results coming from more reliable approximate methods. It has been noted that as more interactions are taken into account in the trial Hamiltonian, better results are obtained for the transition temperature, although the critical exponents are always the mean eld like ones.
Os modelos de Ising de spin-1=2 e spin-1, e o de Blume-Capel de spin-1 foram estudados em redes de uma, duas e três dimensões. Foi empregado o método variacional baseado na desigualdade de Bogoliubov para a energia livre. Os hamiltonianos tentativa utilizados consistem em blocos de spins livres, de pares de spins, e da combinacão de spins livres mais pares de spins. Para as três aproximacões, foram obtidas as quantidades termodinâmicas de interesse, bem como a temperatura crítica e o comportamento perto da transição, neste ultimo caso para se obter os respectivos expoentes críticos. Os resultados foram comparados entre si, bem como com os resultados exatos, quando dispon veis, ou provenientes de outras aproxima c~oes mais elaboradas. Veri ca-se que a medida que se incorpora mais intera c~oes nos hamiltonianos tentativa, melhores resultados s~ao obtidos para a temperatura de transi c~ao, embora os expoentes cr ticos continuem sempre sendo os mesmo de campo médio usual. Palavras-Chave: Modelo de Ising,Blume-Capel,desigualdade de Bogoliubov, campo médio.

Cette thèse couvre plusieurs sujets sur la répartition des revenus et des richesses. Dans le premier chapitre, nous développons une nouvelle méthode pour exploiter les tabulations de revenu et de richesse, telle que celle publiée par les autorités fiscales. Nous y définissons les courbes de Pareto généralisées comme la courbe des coefficients de Pareto inversés b(p), où b(p) est le rapport entre le revenu moyen ou la richesse au-dessus du rang p et le p-ième quantile Q(p) (c'est-à-dire b(p)=E[X|X>Q(p)]/Q(p)). Nous les utilisons pour caractériser des distributions entières, y compris les endroits comme le sommet où la lois de Pareto est une bonne description, et les endroits plus bas où elles ne le sont pas. Nous développons une méthode pour reconstruire de manière flexible l'ensemble de la distribution sur la base de données tabulées sur le revenu ou le patrimoine, qui produit courbes de Pareto généralisées lisses et réalistes.Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous présentons une nouvelle approche pour combiner les données d'enquête et les tabulations fiscales afin de corriger la sous-représentation des plus riches au sommet. Elle détermine de façon endogène un "point de fusion'' entre les données avant de modifier les poids tout au long de la distribution et de remplacer les nouvelles observations au-delà du support original de l'enquête. Nous fournissons des simulations de la méthode et des applications aux données réelles. Les premières démontrent que notre méthode améliore la précision et la stabilité des estimations de la distribution, par rapport à d'autres méthodes de correction d'enquêtes utilisant des données externes, et même en présence d'hypothèses extrêmes. Les applications empiriques montrent que non seulement les niveaux d'inégalité des revenus peuvent changer, mais aussi les tendances.Dans le troisième chapitre, nous estimons la distribution du revenu national dans 38 pays européens entre 1980 et 2017 en combinant enquêtes, données fiscales et comptes nationaux. Nous développons une méthodologie cohérente combinant des méthodes d'apprentissage statistique, de calage non linéaire des enquêtes et la théorie des valeurs extrêmes afin de produire des estimations de l'inégalité des revenus avant et après impôt, comparables d'un pays à l'autre et conformes aux taux de croissance macroéconomiques. Nous constatons que les inégalités se sont creusées dans une majorité de pays européens, en particulier entre 1980 et 2000. Le 1% les plus riches en Europe a augmenté plus de deux fois plus vite que les 50% les plus pauvres et a capturé 18% de la croissance des revenus régionaux.Dans le quatrième chapitre, je décompose la dynamique de la distribution de la richesse à l'aide d'un modèle stochastique dynamique simple qui sépare les effets de la consommation, du revenu du travail, des taux de rendement, de la croissance, de la démographie et du patrimoine. À partir de deux théorèmes de calcul stochastique, je montre que ce modèle est identifié de manière non paramétrique et qu'il peut être estimé à partir de données en coupes répétées. Je l'estime à l'aide des comptes nationaux distributifs des États-Unis depuis 1962. Je trouve que, de l'augmentation de 15pp. de la part de la richesse détenue par les 1% les plus riches observée depuis 1980, environ 7pp. peut être attribuée à l'inégalité croissante des revenus du travail, 6pp. à la hausse des rendements sur le capital (principalement sous forme de plus-values), et 2pp. à la baisse de la croissance. En suivant les paramètres actuels, la part de la richesse des 1% les plus riches atteindrait sa valeur stationnaire d'environ 45% d'ici les années 2040, un niveau similaire à celui du début du XXe siècle. J'utilise ensuite le modèle pour analyser l'effet d'un impôt progressif sur les patrimoines au sommet de la distribution
This thesis covers several topics on the distribution of income and wealth. In the first chapter, we develop a new methodology to exploit tabulations of income and wealth such as the one published by tax authorities. In it, we define generalized Pareto curves as the curve of inverted Pareto coefficients b(p), where b(p) is the ratio between average income or wealth above rank p and the p-th quantile Q(p) (i.e. b(p)=E[X|X>Q(p)]/Q(p)). We use them to characterize entire distributions, including places like the top where power laws are a good description, and places further down where they are not. We develop a method to flexibly recover the entire distribution based on tabulated income or wealth data which produces smooth and realistic shapes of generalized Pareto curves.In the second chapter, we present a new approach to combine survey data with tax tabulations to correct for the underrepresentation of the rich at the top. It endogenously determines a "merging point'' between the datasets before modifying weights along the entire distribution and replacing new observations beyond the survey's original support. We provide simulations of the method and applications to real data. The former demonstrate that our method improves the accuracy and precision of distributional estimates, even under extreme assumptions, and in comparison to other survey correction methods using external data. The empirical applications show that not only can income inequality levels change, but also trends.In the third chapter, we estimate the distribution of national income in thirty-eight European countries between 1980 and 2017 by combining surveys, tax data and national accounts. We develop a unified methodology combining machine learning, nonlinear survey calibration and extreme value theory in order to produce estimates of pre-tax and post-tax income inequality, comparable across countries and consistent with macroeconomic growth rates. We find that inequality has increased in a majority of European countries, especially between 1980 and 2000. The European top 1% grew more than two times faster than the bottom 50% and captured 18% of regional income growth.In the fourth chapter, I decompose the dynamics of the wealth distribution using a simple dynamic stochastic model that separates the effects of consumption, labor income, rates of return, growth, demographics and inheritance. Based on two results of stochastic calculus, I show that this model is nonparametrically identified and can be estimated using only repeated cross-sections of the data. I estimate it using distributional national accounts for the United States since 1962. I find that, out of the 15pp. increase in the top 1% wealth share observed since 1980, about 7pp. can be attributed to rising labor income inequality, 6pp. to rising returns on wealth (mostly in the form of capital gains), and 2pp. to lower growth. Under current parameters, the top 1% wealth share would reach its steady-state value of roughly 45% by the 2040s, a level similar to that of the beginning of the 20th century. I then use the model to analyze the effect of progressive wealth taxation at the top of the distribution

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Double Degree in Economics from the Nova School of Business and Economics and University of Maastricht
This paper investigates the role of income inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers during the recent crisis. Using various measures of income inequality, the empirical strategy developed suggests a positive and statistically significant impact of inequality on the size of fiscal multipliers of European economies during 2010-11. The results are robust after controlling for the role of outliers, by adding controls that could be driving the results, testing for different forecast vintages, and using a different source of standardized income inequality data. Theoretical arguments that may explain the results are presented. Namely the existence of credit constraints to relatively poor households, and the lower propensity to consume of relatively wealthier households.

The ability to raise revenue is one of the most fundamental requirements for state- hood. Without revenues, states are unable to perform even the most basic tasks. In this dissertation I aim to answer the question: When do authoritarian elites in- vest in fiscal capacity? First, I develop a theoretical argument using computational modeling techniques. I contend that inequality increases the costs associated with higher fiscal capacity due to a possible regime change in the future. On the other hand, elite demand for government spending can raise the incentives for autocrats to increase the tax capacity of the state. Complimentarity between elite-owned capital and government investment can lead to a demand for higher taxation. Based on their personal utility associated with government spending, elites weigh the current benefit of higher tax capacity with possible future costs.

I then test the overarching theoretical argument across two different datasets. First, I empirically investigate the question on a sample of over 90 authoritarian regimes from 1980 to 2006. Estimating a number of different models and including a variety of controls, I find that inequality has a strong negative long term effect on fiscal capacity. On the other hand, more industrial countries have higher levels of capacity. In the second empirical chapter, I investigate the theoretical argument on newly collected data on tax revenue and administrative spending in local Prussian counties in the 19th century. Again, I find that local inequality has strong negative effects, while more industrial areas are associated with higher levels of fiscal capacity.

Dissertation

碩士
國立成功大學
經濟學系碩博士班
96
The paper investigates how fiscal policies affect economic growth and income inequality in an economy populated by heterogeneous agents with quasi-geometric discounting factor. Incorporating these assumptions pertaining to time preferences, this research aims to examine whether the invisible hand works or whether government’s regulation is preferable to laissez-faire fiscal policy in a two-sector neoclassical growth model. Theoretical and calibration results indicate that government’s fiscal instruments cannot vary agents’ effective discount factors. A laissez-faire fiscal policy is associated with faster economic growth. Redistributive intervention policies lead to distortions in agents’ saving decisions. However, the policy of subsidizing the majority who are relatively poor along with taxing wealthy agents can mitigate income discrepancy between them.

碩士
國立政治大學
財政研究所
97
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of regional fiscal distribution inequality on the economic growth in post-reform China. By using of the time-series data during the period of 1979-2006, this study analyzes whether or not China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality provides a positive effect for economic growth. Both theoretical papers and empirical papers related to the relationship between regional fiscal distribution inequality and economic growth are reviewed. This study establishes nine empirical models and are estimated by ARDL with cointegration model which attempts to catch the relationship more comprehensively between regional fiscal distribution inequality and the economic growth in China. The main finding of this study is that China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect on its economic growth in the long run. In the short run, China’s regional fiscal distribution inequality has the significantly positive effect or not has an effect on its economic growth. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in positive models and enable the study more rigorous, this study uses more methods to test the models and the result.

What explains variation in fiscal capacity over time and across sub-national units within the same country? In this dissertation, I argue that incumbent political elites, anticipating the redistributive consequences of democratization, can hollow out fiscal capacity. Places where such a phenomenon is likely to occur are those characterized by high levels of social-status inequality arising from historical inter-group segregation. I examine fiscal capacity in colonial Indian provinces and demonstrate that an exogenous episode of limited franchise expansion to lower-status groups was followed by a period of declining fiscal institutions. I use a novel historical dataset spanning 43 districts in the provinces of Madras and Bombay between 1914--1925 and qualitative evidence from legislative proceedings in the two provinces, and find that tax institutions declined in the districts with higher levels of status inequality, as opposed to inequality in wealth. This decline was more pronounced in the reform years, as upper-status groups anticipating the ascendance of lower-status groups into politics hollowed out tax institutions. Next, I examine a case of political mobilization in contemporary India and demonstrate that an announcement by the Government of India in 1990 to implement affirmative action for lower-status groups was followed by a rise in the right-wing vote share for the Bharatiya Janata Party after 1990. Using survey data and electoral data, I finds that both wealthy and poor upper-status Indians voted for the right-wing after 1990 in places where there was greater status inequality in 1931 -- a pattern that did not exist in previous elections. These findings provide evidence for the claim that when upper-status groups face threats to their social standing, cross-class solidarities emerge in support of anti-redistribution parties.

碩士
國立臺北大學
財政學系
95
In the past, in order to solve the expansion of fiscal deficit, government sets up fiscal discipline, redirection of public expenditure, stress rational budget policies and so on. Fiscal balance has become the ideal goal for Taiwan’s deficit. Even though government has aimed for the expansion of fiscal deficit, it is still increasing rapidly. Meanwhile, the inequality of income has also existed. Hence, the main purpose of this study is to discuss the impact of global economy and income inequality on the expansion of fiscal deficit. In fact, the global economy has based on the neo-liberalism since 1980s. This economic theory emphasizes the deregulation can make the distribution of resources more efficiently. We must recognize that the market system is inseparable in our life, however, people’s property or resources are requirements to enter the market system. Furthermore, the ability to pay will decide the competitiveness in the market system. Once economic ability is unequal, it will lead to unfair exchange in the market system and even result in income inequality. In the capitalism and democratic society, governmental fiscal policies are affected by economic stronger, such as tax reduction or exemption regulations. In addition, government should avoid economic weaker excluding from the market system employs education, social security, etc. Under the insufficient tax revenue, tax base erosion and public expenditure increasingly, the income inequality in society caused the expansion of fiscal deficit. Therefore, government must devote to improving the income distribution to slacken off the expansion of fiscal deficit.

We argue that the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers depends crucially on the type of fiscal experiment used as well as on the measure of the wealth distribution. We calibrate an incomplete-markets, overlapping generations model to different European economies and use Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) data to compare fiscal multipliers when models are calibrated to match the distribution of liquid vs. net wealth. We find a negative relationship between fiscal multipliers and wealth inequality when considering fiscal consolidation programs, in contrast to fiscal expansions experiments which are standard in the literature. The underlying mechanism relies on the relationship between the distribution of wealth and the share of credit constrained agents. We examine the role of households’ balance sheet compositions regarding asset liquidity and find that when calibrating the model to match liquid wealth, the relationship between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers is much stronger.

acase@tulane.edu
This dissertation includes three essays analyzing the socio-economic impacts of fiscal policies in the areas of educational attainment, interstate migration, inequality, and poverty. The first chapter, Labor versus Capital in the Provision of Public Services: Estimating the Marginal Products of Inputs in the Production of Student Outcomes, evaluates and compares the impact of various types of school expenditures on student test scores. It finds that additional operating expenditure has a positive short-term impact on students’ test scores (mainly through its impact on teachers’ compensation) while capital expenditures do no have any impact. The second chapter, Do Government Subsidies to Low-income Individuals Affect Interstate Migration? Evidence from the Massachusetts Health Care Reform, estimates the impact of MHCR on interstate migration of low income individuals to Massachusetts. It finds that providing health subsidy to low income individuals increases the population growth rate of low income individuals in border cities of Massachusetts with the other states and the effect diminishes quickly as distance to the state border increases. The third chapter, Fiscal Policy, Inequality, and Poverty in Iran: Assessing the Impact and Effectiveness of Taxes and Transfers, analyzes the fiscal system in Iran and its impact on inequality and poverty. It finds that the Targeted Subsidy Reform plays the major role in reducing inequality and poverty in Iran.
1
Ali Enami

archives@tulane.edu
This dissertation examines how fiscal policy affects gender inequality using a comparable and comprehensive framework and data from Brazil, Colombia, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, and Uruguay. Using the harmonized household microdata provided by the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Institute at Tulane University, this study assesses how fiscal policy in these countries affects households and beneficiaries with gender equity as the focus. This is the first cross-country comprehensive gendered fiscal incidence analysis evaluating the impact of direct and indirect taxes (including consumption taxes and subsidies), direct and indirect subsidies (e.g., cash transfers), and in-kind education and health transfers combined. The study reveals that male breadwinner households are more disadvantaged pre and post government intervention as compared to female breadwinner households. However, female headed households are more disadvantaged than male headed households. In fact, female headed households are the most severely disadvantaged group compared to any other gender variable. In all countries analyzed in this study, fiscal policy as a whole does improve the wellbeing of those who are more disadvantaged pre fisc (i.e., the poor, defined as those who earn less than US$5.50 PPP per day) regardless of their gender. Further research is needed to determine why female breadwinners are better off than male breadwinners, but female headed households are more disadvantaged than any other type of gender household classification. Additionally, more research should be done to determine the most effective gender variables necessary to assess fiscal policy.
1
Samantha Greenspun

This work studies the response of social welfare to fiscal consolidations, by focusingon a less debated characteristic of fiscal plans: the speed of deleveraging. A neo-classical overlapping generations model is calibrated to the German economy, anda sequence of reductions of the same size in the debt-to-GDP ratio are simulatedconsidering different adjustment periods. Welfare gains are found to be larger inslow, delayed fiscal consolidations, due to the presence of incomplete markets. It isalso found that the aggregate welfare response depends on the distribution of wealthand the type of fiscal instrument used.

This paper studies whether there are differences in fiscal consolidation's effect on the distribution of income, depending on a countrys currency regime. I find that countries under a fixed currency regime experience lower inequality measured by the Gini coefficient in times of fiscal consolidation when compared to countries with free floating currencies. Limiting the sample to fixed countries, consolidation still tends to lower inequality. The effect is only apparent for small consolidation episodes, larger ones - > 1% of GDP - show disequalizing effects. Spending cuts and tax hikes both increase the Gini in floating countries and have equalizing effects in fixed countries. Their size matters for fixed countries.

Dans le sillage de la récession mondiale de 2008-09, plusieurs questions ont été soulevées dans la littérature économique sur les effets à court et à long terme de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité économique par rapport à son signe, sa taille et sa durée. Ceux-ci ont des implications importantes pour mieux comprendre les canaux de transmission et l’efficacité des politiques budgétaires, avec la politique monétaire étant poursuivi, ainsi que pour leurs retombées économiques. Cette thèse fait partie de ce regain d’intérêt de la littérature d’examiner comment les changements dans la politique budgétaire affectent l’activité économique. Elle repose alors sur trois essais: les effets macroéconomiques des chocs de dépenses publiques et des recettes fiscales, les résultats macroéconomiques de l’interaction entre les politiques budgétaire et monétaire et le lien entre la politique budgétaire et la répartition des revenus. Le premier chapitre examine les effets des chocs de politique budgétaire (chocs de dépenses publiques et chocs de recettes fiscales) sur l’économie canadienne au cours de la période 1970-2010, en s’appuyant sur la méthode d’identification des restrictions de signe développée par Mountford et Uhlig [2009]. En réponse à la récession mondiale, les autorités fiscales dans les économies avancées, dont le Canada ont généralement mis en oeuvre une approche en deux phases pour la politique budgétaire. Tout d’abord, ils ont introduit des plans de relance sans précédent pour relancer leurs économies. Par exemple, les mesures de relance au Canada, introduites à travers le Plan d’action économique du Canada, ont été projetées à 3.2 pour cent du PIB dans le budget fédéral de 2009 tandis que l’ "American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"(ARRA) a été estimé à 7 pour cent du PIB. Par la suite, ils ont mis en place des plans d’ajustement en vue de réduire la dette publique et en assurer la soutenabilité à long terme. Dans ce contexte, évaluer les effets multiplicateurs de la politique budgétaire est important en vue d’informer sur l'efficacité de telles mesures dans la relance ou non de l'activité économique. Les résultats montrent que les multiplicateurs d'impôt varient entre 0.2 et 0.5, tandis que les multiplicateurs de dépenses varient entre 0.2 et 1.1. Les multiplicateurs des dépenses ont tendance à être plus grand que les multiplicateurs des recettes fiscales au cours des deux dernières décennies. Comme implications de politique économique, ces résultats tendent à suggérer que les ajustements budgétaires par le biais de grandes réductions de dépenses publiques pourraient être plus dommageable pour l'économie que des ajustements budgétaires par la hausse des impôts. Le deuxième chapitre, co-écrit avec Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, estime les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses publiques aux Etats-Unis en fonction du cycle de la politique monétaire. Les chocs de dépenses publiques sont identifiés comme étant des erreurs de prévision du taux de croissance des dépenses publiques à partir des données d'Enquêtes des prévisionnistes professionnels et des informations contenues dans le "Greenbook". L'état de la politique monétaire est déduite à partir de la déviation du taux des fonds fédéraux du taux cible de la Réserve Fédérale, en faisant recours à une fonction lisse de transition. L'application de la méthode des «projections locales» aux données trimestrielles américaines au cours de la période 1965-2012 suggère que les effets multiplicateurs des dépenses fédérales sont sensiblement plus élevées quand la politique monétaire est accommodante que lorsqu'elle ne l'est pas. Les résultats suggèrent aussi que les dépenses fédérales peuvent stimuler ou non la consommation privée, dépendamment du degré d’accommodation de la politique monétaire. Ce dernier résultat réconcilie ainsi, sur la base d’un cadre unifié des résultats autrement contradictoires à première vue dans la littérature. Ces résultats ont d'importantes implications de politique économique. Ils suggèrent globalement que la politique budgétaire est plus efficace lorsqu'on en a le plus besoin (par exemple, lorsque le taux de chômage est élevé), si elle est soutenue par la politique monétaire. Ils ont également des implications pour la normalisation des conditions monétaires dans les pays avancés: la sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles conduirait à des multiplicateurs de dépenses fédérales beaucoup plus faibles qu'autrement, même si le niveau de chômage restait élevé. Ceci renforce la nécessité d'une calibration prudente du calendrier de sortie des politiques monétaires non-conventionnelles. Le troisième chapitre examine l'impact des mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sur la distribution des revenus dans un panel de 18 pays d'Amérique latine au cours de la période 1990-2010, avec un accent sur les deniers 40 pour cent. Il explore alors comment ces mesures fiscales ainsi que leur composition affectent la croissance des revenus des dernier 40 pour cent, la croissance de leur part de revenu ainsi que la croissance économique. Les mesures d'expansion et de contraction budgétaire sont identifiées par des périodes au cours desquels il existe une variation significative du déficit primaire corrigé des variations conjoncturelles en pourcentage du PIB. Les résultats montrent qu'en moyenne l'expansion budgétaire par la hausse des dépenses publiques est plus favorable à la croissance des revenus des moins bien-nantis que celle par la baisse des impôts. Ce résultat est principalement soutenu par la hausse des dépenses gouvernementales de consommation courante, les transferts et subventions. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. En outre ces mesures d’expansion budgétaire sont favorables à la réduction des inégalités car elles permettent d'améliorer la part des revenus des moins bien-nantis tout en réduisant la part des revenus des mieux-nantis de la distribution des revenus. Cependant, l'expansion budgétaire pourrait soit n'avoir aucun effet sur la croissance économique ou entraver cette dernière à travers la hausse des dépenses en capital. Les résultats relatifs à la contraction budgétaire sont quelque peu mitigés. Parfois, les mesures de contraction budgétaire sont associées à une baisse de la croissance des revenus des moins bien nantis et à une hausse des inégalités, parfois l'impact de ces mesures est non significatif. Par ailleurs, aucune des mesures n’affecte de manière significative la croissance du PIB. Comme implications de politique économique, les pays avec une certaine marge de manœuvre budgétaire pourraient entamer ou continuer à mettre en œuvre des programmes de "filets de sauvetage"--par exemple les programmes de transfert monétaire conditionnel--permettant aux segments vulnérables de la population de faire face à des chocs négatifs et aussi d'améliorer leur conditions de vie. Avec un potentiel de stimuler l'emploi peu qualifié, une relance budgétaire sage par les dépenses publique courantes pourrait également jouer un rôle important pour la réduction des inégalités. Aussi, pour éviter que les dépenses en capital freinent la croissance économique, les projets d'investissements publics efficients devraient être prioritaires dans le processus d'élaboration des politiques. Ce qui passe par la mise en œuvre des projets d'investissement avec une productivité plus élevée capable de générer la croissance économique nécessaire pour réduire les inégalités.
In the wake of the 2008-09 Global Recession, several issues have been raised in the economic literature about the short and long-run effects of fiscal policy on economic activity with respect to its signs, its size and its duration. These have important implications to better understand the transmission channels and the effectiveness of fiscal policies, along with the monetary policy being pursued, as well as for their economic fallouts. This dissertation is part of this renewed strand of literature to assess how changes in fiscal policy affect economic activity. It therefore relies on three essays: the macroeconomic effects of government spending and tax revenue shocks, the economic outcomes of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and the nexus between fiscal policy and income distribution. The first chapter examines the effects of fiscal policy shocks (government spending and tax revenue shocks) on the Canadian economy, building on the sign-restrictions-VAR approach developed by Mountford and Uhlig [2009]. In response to the Global Recession, fiscal authorities in advanced economies including Canada typically implemented a two-phase approach to fiscal policy. First, they introduced unprecedented stimulus packages to revive their economies. For instance, stimulus measures in Canada, introduced through Canada's Economic Action Plan, were projected at 3.2 percent of GDP in the 2009 federal budget while the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was estimated at 7 percent of GDP. Following the stimulus, they shifted gears, adopting adjustment plans to reduce public debt and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability. Against this backdrop, examining the size of fiscal multiplier is important to informing the effectiveness of such policy measures in reviving or not economic activity. I find that tax-cut multipliers vary between 0.2 and 0.5, while spending multipliers range between 0.2 and 1.1. Spending multipliers tend to be larger than tax-cut multipliers over the last two decades. For policy implications, these results tend to suggest that fiscal consolidations through large spending cuts could be more harmful to the economy than tax-based fiscal adjustments. The second chapter, co-written with Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, provides estimates of the US government spending multiplier over the monetary policy cycle. Government spending shocks are identified as forecast errors of the growth rate of government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from the Greenbook record, further stripped from their predictable components. The state of monetary policy is inferred from the deviation of the Fed funds rate from the target rate, using a smooth transition function. Applying the local projections method to quarterly US data over the period 1965-2012, results show that the federal government spending multiplier is substantially higher under accommodative than non-accommodative monetary policy. The estimations also suggest that federal government spending may crowd-in or crowd-out private consumption, depending on the extent of monetary policy accommodation. The latter result reconciles---in a unified framework---apparently contradictory findings in the literature. These findings have important policy implications. They broadly suggest that fiscal policy is more effective when needed the most (e.g., at times of slack), if supported by monetary policy. They also have implications for the normalization of monetary conditions in advanced economies: the exit from UMP would lead to much lower federal government spending multipliers than otherwise, even if some amount of slack was to remain in the economy. This further highlights the need for a careful calibration of the timing of exit from unconventional monetary policy. The third chapter examines the impact of fiscal expansion and fiscal contraction measures on income distribution in a panel of 18 Latin American countries over the period 1990-2010, with a focus on the bottom 40 percent. It therefore explores how these fiscal measures and their composition have affected the income growth of the bottom 40 percent, their income share growth and economic growth. Fiscal expansions and fiscal consolidations are identified by periods for which there is a significant change in the cyclically-adjusted primary deficit as share of GDP. I find that on average, expenditures-based fiscal expansion are more likely to increase the income of the bottom 40 percent than revenues-based fiscal expansion. This result is mainly driven by government current consumption, transfers and subsidies. In addition, these fiscal expansion measures help to reduce income inequality by improving the income share of the bottom segments of the population while reducing the top income share. However, fiscal expansion could either have no effect on economic growth or prevent the latter through capital expenditures increases. Results for fiscal consolidation are somewhat mixed. Sometime, fiscal consolidation is associated with a decline of the income growth of the less well-off and rising inequality, sometime the impact is non-significant. None of the fiscal contraction measures affects significantly GDP growth. These findings have important policy implications. Countries with some fiscal space could initiate or continue to implement safety nets program--like conditional cash transfer programs--necessary to prevent the vulnerable segment of the population to adverse shocks and to improve their living standards. With a potential of stimulating low-skill employment, a wise fiscal stimulus through government current consumption increases could also play a significant role to reduce income inequality. Also, to avoid capital expenditures that hinder economic growth, efficient public investment projects should be prioritized in the policy making process. This consists of implementing investment projects with higher productivity that can enhance economic growth necessary to reduce inequality.

This thesis investigates the effects of fiscal consolidations on income inequality. Although fiscal consolidations have become a popular economic research topic, their effects on income inequality, which itself has gained broad popularity lately, are relatively unexplored. Therefore, this thesis econometrically assesses the development of Gini coefficients during and after austerity measures. The paper applies regression analysis with panel data techniques using a sample of 17 high-income countries during the period of 1978 - 2009. It finds that a consolidation, measured by a deliberate improvement of the primary budget balance significantly increases income inequality of the referring country. In detail, an improvement of the primary budget balance about one percent of GDP is associated with an increase in market income inequality of 0.6% and a smaller increase in net income inequality in the year after. Moreover, this thesis explores the discretionary effect of different consolidation compositions. To do so, it introduces a novel approach to differentiate between consolidations that are either exclusively undertaken through spending cuts, tax increases or a combination of both. Thereby, it is found that especially tax-only consolidations tend to be equality-friendly but also rather small in size...

in English In my diploma thesis I propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to describe economic inequality. The model combines two approaches that were traditionally used to model inequality - first, it features two classes of agents that differ in their ownership of capital and second, each class consists of heterogeneous agents who are subject to uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. This combination allows the two classes to behave in a fundamentally different way while maintaining the individual character of agents in the economy - a feature that has not been modeled before but which adequately describes the empirical reality. I show that the model with classical RBC structure and a single wage underestimates the observed inequality. When the wage differential is introduced through different taxation of the two classes, the model matches empirical inequality much better. Further I argue that the government can significantly reduce inequality at a relatively small cost in terms of output lost. Finally using Theil coefficient decomposition, I show how much of the total inequality is attributable to between-class and within-class inequalities.

Cette thèse explore les effets macroéconomiques et distributionnels de la taxation dans l’économie américaine. Les trois premiers chapitres prennent en considération l’interaction entre l’entrepreneuriat et la distribution de richesse tandis que le dernier discute l’arbitrage du mode de financement d’une diminution d’impôt sur les sociétés sous la contrainte de neutralité fiscale pour le gouvernement. Spécifiquement, le chapitre 1 en utilisant les données du Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) , fournit des évidences selon lesquelles le capital humain ou l’expérience entrepreneuriale est quantitativement important pour expliquer les disparités de revenu et de richesse entre les individus au cours de leur cycle de vie. Pour saisir ces tendances, je considère le modèle d’entrepreneuriat de Cagetti et De Nardi (2006), modifié pour prendre en compte la dynamique du cycle de vie. J’introduis également l’accumulation de l’experience entrepreneuriale, laquelle rend les entrepreneurs plus productifs. Je calibre ensuite deux versions du modèle (avec et sans accumulation d’expérience d’entreprise) en fonction des mêmes données américaines. Les résultats montrent que le modèle avec accumulation d’expérience réplique le mieux les données. La question de recherche du chapitre 2 est opportune à la réforme fiscale récente adoptée aux États-Unis, laquelle est un changement majeur du code fiscal depuis la loi de réforme fiscale de 1986. Le Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) voté en décembre 2017 a significativement changé la manière dont le revenu d’affaires est imposé aux États-Unis. Je considère alors le modèle d’équilibre général dynamique avec choix d’occupations développé au Chapitre 1 pour une évaluation quantitative des effets macroéconomiques du TCJA, tant dans le court terme que dans le long terme. Le TCJA est modélisé selon ses trois provisions clés : un nouveau taux de déduction de 20% pour les firmes non- incorporées, une baisse du taux fiscal statutaire pour sociétés incorporées de 35% à 21% et la réduction de 39.6% à 37% du taux marginal supérieur pour les individus. Je trouve que l’économie connait un taux de croissance du PIB de 0.90% sur une fenêtre fiscale de dix ans et le stock de capital en moyenne augmente de 2.12%. Ces résultats sont consis- tants aux évaluations faites par le Congressional Budget Office et le Joint Committee on vi Taxation. Avec des provisions provisoires, le TCJA génère une réduction dans l’inégalité de la richesse et celle du revenu mais l’opposé se réalise une fois que les provisions sont faites permanentes. Dans les deux scénarios, la population subit une perte de bien-être et exprime un faible soutien. Le chapitre 3 répond à la question normative: Les entrepreneurs devraient-ils être imposés différemment? Par conséquent, j’analyse quantitativement la désirabilité d’une taxation basée sur l’occupation dans un modèle à générations imbriquées avec entrepreneuriat et une prise en compte explicite des cohortes transitionnelles. La reforme principale étudiée est le passage d’une taxation progressive fédérale identique tant pour les revenus du travail que pour le bénéfice d’entreprise au niveau individuel à un régime fiscal différentiel où le profit d’affaires fait face à un taux d’imposition proportionnel pendant que le revenu du travail est toujours soumis au code de taxation progressive. Je trouve qu’une taxe proportionnelle de 40% imposée aux entrepreneurs est optimale. Plus générale- ment, je montre que le taux d’imposition optimal varie entre 15% et 50%, augmentant avec l’aversion du planificateur pour les inégalités et diminuant avec son évaluation rel- ative du bien-être des générations futures. Dans le contexte de la réforme fiscalité des entreprises, le chapitre 4 évalue les compromis de neutralité fiscale de revenu dans le financement d’une réduction de l’impôt des sociétés. Pour respecter la neutralité fiscale, le gouvernement utilise trois instruments pour équilibrer son budget, à savoir l’impôt sur le revenu du travail, les dividendes et les gains en capital. Je construis ensuite un modèle d’équilibre général parcimonieux pour obtenir des multiplicateurs budgétaires équilibrés associés à une réforme de l’impôt sur les sociétés. En utilisant un calibration standard de l’économie américaine, je montre que les multiplicateurs liés à l’impôt sur le revenu du travail et l’impôt sur les dividendes sont négatifs, suggérant ainsi un compromis entre une réduction de l’impôt des sociétés et ces deux taux d’imposition. D’autre part, le multiplicateur lié à l’impôt sur les gains en capital est positif, ce qui prédit une coordination d’une double réduction des taux d’imposition des sociétés et des gains en capital. De plus, les gains de bien-être des différents scénarios sont mitigés.
This thesis explores the macroeconomic and distributional effects of taxation in the U.S. economy. The first three chapters take advantage of the interplay between entrepreneurship and wealth distribution while the last one discusses the trade-offs when financing a corporate tax cut under revenue neutrality. Specifically, Chapter 1 provides evidence using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) that occupation-specific human capital or business experience is quantitatively important in explaining income and wealth disparities among individuals over their life cycle. To capture the data patterns, I build on Cagetti and De Nardi (2006) occupational choice model, modified to feature life-cycle dynamics. I also introduce managerial skill accumulation which leads entrepreneurs to become more productive with experience. I then calibrate two versions of the model (with and without accumulation of business experience) to the same U.S. data. Results show that the model with business experience margin is the closest one. Chapter 2's research question is timely to the recent tax reform enacted in the US, which is a major change of the tax code since the 1986 Tax Reform Act. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) as of December 2017 significantly altered how business income is taxed in the US. I consider a dynamic general equilibrium model of entrepreneurship developed in Chapter 1 to provide a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of the TCJA, both in the short run and in the long run. The TCJA is modeled by its three key provisions: a new 20-percent-deduction rate for pass-throughs, a drop in the statutory tax rate for corporations from 35% to 21% and the reduction to 37% of the top marginal tax rate for individuals from 39.6%. I find that the economy experiences, a GDP growth rate of 0.90% over a ten-year window and average capital stock increases by 2.12%. These results are consistent with estimates made by the congressional budget office and the joint committee on taxation. With temporary provisions, the TCJA delivers a reduction in wealth and income inequality but the opposite occurs once provisions are made permanent. In both scenarios, the population suffers a welfare loss and finds them difficult to support. Chapter 3 answers the normative question: Should entrepreneurs be taxed differently? Accordingly, I quantitatively investigate the desirability of occupation-based taxation in the entrepreneurship model of Chapter 1, when transitional cohorts are explicitly taken into account. The main experiment is to move from the federal single progressive taxation for both labor income and business profit at the individual level to a differential tax regime where business income faces a proportional tax rate and labor income is still subject to the progressive scheme. I find that a tax rate of 40% is optimal. More generally, the optimal tax rate varies between 15% and 50%, increasing with the planner's aversion to inequality and decreasing with its relative valuation of future generations' welfare. In the context of business tax reform, chapter 4 assesses revenue-neutral trade-offs when financing a corporate tax cut. To meet revenue neutrality, the policymaker uses three instruments to balance the government budget, namely labor income tax, dividend tax, and capital gains tax. I then construct a parsimonious general equilibrium model to derive balanced fiscal multipliers associated with corporate tax reform. Using a standard calibration, I show that both labor income tax and dividend tax multipliers are negative, suggesting a trade-off between a corporate tax cut and these two tax rates. On the other hand, the multiplier related to the capital gains tax is positive, which predicts the coordination of a double cut in both corporate and capital gains tax rates. Moreover, the welfare gains of the different scenarios are mixed.

The post-apartheid government of 1994 is a product of the ‘Age of Rights’. Statemaking processes and the exercise of state powers is managed by the rule of law based on a constitution. Constitutionally recognised rights, and rights protection institutions, animate a transition from a legacy of Black political exclusion and underdevelopment. Intensifying class stratification and inequality constrain Black’s formal realisation of citizenship rights, placing great pressure on creative interpretation of constitutionally legitimated claims. My thesis examines the rights discourse informing the Constitution, particularly issues about the realisation of social and economic rights. I examine the unfolding of discourses on the right to housing between 1994 to 2008, to illustrate of the complexity of the discourse. Episodic housing protests suggest significant degrees of alienation, marginalisation, and disappointment with expectations of citizenship and the non-realisation of social and economic rights. Housing rights is an issue that will affect the democratic consolidation and political stability prospects of the new political order. I examine the interface between macro-economic policies, budgets, and the realisation of housing rights, and assess the impact of an identifiable configuration of forces expected to play important roles in realising a rights culture and broadening the discourse. My study draws on a spectrum of qualitative, interpretive, and analysis of discourse approaches, using data from: published articles, annual reports and archives, speeches, court proceedings and statements, interviews with persons whose scope of activities impact the unfolding of the concerned rights, namely, representatives of government departments, private sector developers, financing institutions, and civil society formations. My main findings are that few actors in the configuration support the view that the Constitution should be changed to make explicit the state’s obligations on the realisation of social and economic rights. Nevertheless, there are isolated cases of people expressing an absolute entitlement sense of rights --- the state should deliver when demands are made. My conclusions are that considerable political unrest about non-realisation of these rights will persist, but will not cause a collapse of the post-1994 political institutions and processes. More likely, political actors, legal scholars and jurists, will persistently engage the prevailing rights discourse and the variety of institutions acting towards their realisation, without effecting drastic changes to these, but always invoking positions about how they still are suited for a post-apartheid transformation project yet need critical interrogation and improvisation.