Journal articles on the topic 'Fires Casualties Mathematical models'
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1
Kumar, Rajiv, A. K. Gupta, and M. Naveen. "Compartment Fires: BFD Curve and Mathematical Models." Journal of Applied Fire Science 17, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 73–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/af.17.1.e.
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Mazakov, T. Zh, and A. A. Sametova. "CLASSIFICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR FOREST AND STEPPE FIRES." REPORTS OF THE NAS RK 5, no. 339 (October 15, 2021): 219–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32014/2021.2518-1483.102.
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Anoikin, Roman K. "Analysis of Mathematical Models Used for Forest Ground Fires Forecasting." Технологии гражданской безопасности 17, no. 2 (2020): 58–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.54234/cst.19968493.2020.17.2.64.10.58.
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Wang, Ziqi, Tao Peng, and Zhaoyou Lu. "Comparative Research on Forest Fire Image Segmentation Algorithms Based on Fully Convolutional Neural Networks." Forests 13, no. 7 (July 19, 2022): 1133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13071133.
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In recent years, frequent forest fires have plagued countries all over the world, causing serious economic damage and human casualties. Faster and more accurate detection of forest fires and timely interventions have become a research priority. With the advancement in deep learning, fully convolutional network architectures have achieved excellent results in the field of image segmentation. More researchers adopt these models to segment flames for fire monitoring, but most of the works are aimed at fires in buildings and industrial scenarios. However, there are few studies on the application of various fully convolutional models to forest fire scenarios, and comparative experiments are inadequate. In view of the above problems, on the basis of constructing the dataset with remote-sensing images of forest fires captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the targeted optimization of the data enhancement process, four classical semantic segmentation models and two backbone networks are selected for modeling and testing analysis. By comparing inference results and the evaluation indicators of models such as mPA and mIoU, we can find out the models that are more suitable for forest fire segmentation scenarios. The results show that the U-Net model with Resnet50 as a backbone network has the highest segmentation accuracy of forest fires with the best comprehensive performance, and is more suitable for scenarios with high-accuracy requirements; the DeepLabV3+ model with Resnet50 is slightly less accurate than U-Net, but it can still ensure a satisfying segmentation performance with a faster running speed, which is suitable for scenarios with high real-time requirements. In contrast, FCN and PSPNet have poorer segmentation performance and, hence, are not suitable for forest fire detection scenarios.
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Lu, Ying, Xiaopeng Fan, Zhipan Zhao, and Xuepeng Jiang. "Dynamic Fire Risk Classification Prediction of Stadiums: Multi-Dimensional Machine Learning Analysis Based on Intelligent Perception." Applied Sciences 12, no. 13 (June 29, 2022): 6607. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12136607.
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Stadium fires can easily cause massive casualties and property damage. The early risk prediction of stadiums will be able to reduce the incidence of fires by making corresponding fire safety management and decision making in an early and targeted manner. In the field of building fires, some studies apply data mining techniques and machine learning algorithms to the collected risk hazard data for fire risk prediction. However, most of these studies use all attributes in the dataset, which may degrade the performance of predictive models due to data redundancy. Furthermore, machine learning algorithms are numerous and applied to fewer stadium fires, and it is crucial to explore models suitable for predicting stadium fire risk. The purpose of this study was to identify salient features to build a model for predicting stadium fire risk predictions. In this study, we designed an index attribute threshold interval to classify and quantify different fire risk data. We then used Gradient Boosting-Recursive Feature Elimination (GB-RFE) and Pearson correlation analysis to perform efficient feature selection on risk feature attributes to find the most informative salient feature subsets. Two cross-validation strategies were employed to address the dataset imbalance problem. Using the smart stadium fire risk data set provided by the Wuhan Emergency Rescue Detachment, the optimal prediction model was obtained based on the identified significant features and six machine learning methods of 12 combination forms, and full features were input as an experimental comparison study. Five performance evaluation metrics were used to evaluate and compare the combined models. Results show that the best performing model had an F1 score of 81.9% and an accuracy of 93.2%. Meanwhile, by introducing a precision-recall curve to explain the actual classification performance of each model, AdaBoost achieves the highest Auprc score (0.78), followed by SVM (0.77), which reveals more stable performance under such imbalanced data.
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Urrutia, J. D., L. A. Bautista, and E. B. Baccay. "Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 495 (April 4, 2014): 012024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/495/1/012024.
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Labovská, Zuzana, and Juraj Labovský. "Estimation of thermal effects on receptor from pool fires." Acta Chimica Slovaca 9, no. 2 (October 1, 2016): 169–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/acs-2016-0029.
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Abstract The aim of this contribution is to provide an overview of the calculation procedures of risk analysis, that is, the effects and consequences of pool fires. Fires and explosions are the most significant and most common causes of damage to equipment and of injuries and death in industry. Damages are a direct consequence of the generated heat flux. Mathematical tools for the prediction of heat flux at a distance can be divided into four classes: semi-empirical models, field models, integral models and zone models. Semi-empirical modeling is a relatively simple technique providing models predicting heat flux at a distance. There are two types of semi-empirical models: point source models and surface emitter models. By their nature, semi-empirical models depend strongly on experimental data. Correlations are able to describe the general features of a fire. Semi-empirical models are ideal for routine hazard assessment purposes because they are mathematically simple, and hence easily understood. However, if more models describing the same phenomenon are available, significant differences in the heat flux prediction can be expected. In this contribution, differences in the prediction of the heat flux from pool fires are discussed.
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Radovanovic, Milan, Yaroslav Vyklyuk, Milan Stevancevic, Milan Milenkovic, Dejana Jakovljevic, Marko Petrovic, Slavica Malinovic-Milicevic, et al. "Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017." Thermal Science 23, no. 1 (2019): 73–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci180803251r.
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Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.
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Sukhodolov, Alexander, Polina Sorokina, and Alina Lebedeva. "Mathematical Model of Fight Against Forest Fires in Terms of Irkutsk Oblast: Computational Experiments in Terms of the Julia Language." Bulletin of Baikal State University 29, no. 3 (September 12, 2019): 349–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(3).349-358.
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Forest fires extremely undermine the environment, cause serious damage to the forests, wildlife resources and national economy of the country. The issues of fight against forests fires and their prevention are especially important for Eastern Siberia with its huge spaces, low population density and poor development of the road network on the taiga territories. Organizing and delivering largescale fire prevention activities entails enormous financial and material and technical resources Therefore, ecological-mathematical modeling of situations arising from countering forest fires becomes relevant. The purpose of investigations of such models is to develop a fire fighting strategy that would ensure an acceptable environmental level and, at the same time, be economically effective. This article pays attention to solving the problem of optimal control of forest fire fighting, the prototype of which is the well-known model by G.M. Parks. To analyze the model, the modern programming language Julia is used, which is designed to perform mathematical calculations and numerical investigations. It mostly designed for mathematical calculations and numerical analysis of various problems. Irkutsk Oblast has been chosen as a model territory of research.
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Mohamad Sharaf, Iman, and Ghada El-Sawah. "Optimization of an automated smoke control system in an industrial atrium." International Journal of Petrochemical Science & Engineering 4, no. 1 (February 28, 2019): 25–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15406/ipcse.2019.04.00099.
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Pool fires are the most common hazard in many industrial applications. Therefore, automated fire control systems and occupational safety design codes and procedures are of major importance in industrial building systems design. Smoke is the main factor that causes deaths and casualties in fires. Thus, fire safety engineering (FSE) considers smoke management system as one of the most important factors. In this study, smoke generation during pool fire is numerically simulated to optimize the smoke management system. The smoke and temperature distributions inside a mechanically ventilated atrium are simulated using a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) transient model after initiating a diesel pool fire in the worst case scenario. Four numerical models are simulated and their results are compared to choose the model that optimizes smoke control. The models enable better approximations of the underlying physical phenomena in smoke transport for a single phase gas mixture. A velocity field approach is predicted using a turbulent standard k-ε model to study the domain with smoke plume. The ability to demonstrate and predict the flow field inside the atrium while the roof exhaust fans are operating is also investigated. The study aids in smoke management systems' design and helps to better understand of smoke plume behavior inside large spaces.
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Mohamad Sharaf, Iman, and Ghada El-Sawah. "Optimization of an automated smoke control system in an industrial atrium." International Journal of Petrochemical Science & Engineering 4, no. 1 (February 28, 2019): 25–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15406/ipcse.2019.04.00099.
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Pool fires are the most common hazard in many industrial applications. Therefore, automated fire control systems and occupational safety design codes and procedures are of major importance in industrial building systems design. Smoke is the main factor that causes deaths and casualties in fires. Thus, fire safety engineering (FSE) considers smoke management system as one of the most important factors. In this study, smoke generation during pool fire is numerically simulated to optimize the smoke management system. The smoke and temperature distributions inside a mechanically ventilated atrium are simulated using a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) transient model after initiating a diesel pool fire in the worst case scenario. Four numerical models are simulated and their results are compared to choose the model that optimizes smoke control. The models enable better approximations of the underlying physical phenomena in smoke transport for a single phase gas mixture. A velocity field approach is predicted using a turbulent standard k-ε model to study the domain with smoke plume. The ability to demonstrate and predict the flow field inside the atrium while the roof exhaust fans are operating is also investigated. The study aids in smoke management systems' design and helps to better understand of smoke plume behavior inside large spaces.
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Baranovskiy, Nikolay. "Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Predict Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Mounting Areas." Forecasting 3, no. 4 (September 27, 2021): 695–715. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/forecast3040043.
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Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained.
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Wang, Xiaoxue, Chengwei Wang, Guangna Zhao, Hairu Ding, and Min Yu. "Research Progress of Forest Fires Spread Trend Forecasting in Heilongjiang Province." Atmosphere 13, no. 12 (December 16, 2022): 2110. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122110.
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In order to further grasp the scientific method of forecasting the spreading trend of forest fires in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in Northeast China, the basic concepts of forest fires, a geographical overview of Heilongjiang Province, and an overview of forest fire forecasting are mainly introduced. The calculation and computer simulation of various forest fire spread models are reviewed, and the selected model for forest fires spread in Heilongjiang Province is mainly summarized. The research shows that the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the actual situation of Heilongjiang Province. However, few studies over the past three decades have updated the formula. Therefore, this empirical model is mainly analyzed in this paper. The nonlinear least squares method is used to re-fit the wind speed correction coefficient, which gets closer results to the actual values, and the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model is rewritten and evaluated for a more precise formula. In addition, a brief overview of the commonly used Rothermel mathematical–physical model and the improved ellipse mathematical model is given, which provides a basis for the improvement of the forest fires spread model in Heilongjiang Province.
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Perryman, Holly A., Christopher J. Dugaw, J. Morgan Varner, and Diane L. Johnson. "A cellular automata model to link surface fires to firebrand lift-off and dispersal." International Journal of Wildland Fire 22, no. 4 (2013): 428. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf11045.
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In spite of considerable effort to predict wildland fire behaviour, the effects of firebrand lift-off, the ignition of resulting spot fires and their effects on fire spread, remain poorly understood. We developed a cellular automata model integrating key mathematical models governing current fire spread models with a recently developed model that estimates firebrand landing patterns. Using our model we simulated a wildfire in an idealised Pinus ponderosa ecosystem. Varying values of wind speed, surface fuel loading, surface fuel moisture content and canopy base height, we investigated two scenarios: (i) the probability of a spot fire igniting beyond fuelbreaks of various widths and (ii) how spot fires directly affect the overall surface fire’s rate of spread. Results were averages across 2500 stochastic simulations. In both scenarios, canopy base height and surface fuel loading had a greater influence than wind speed and surface fuel moisture content. The expected rate of spread with spot fires occurring approached a constant value over time, which ranged between 6 and 931% higher than the predicted surface fire rate of spread. Incorporation of the role of spot fires in wildland fire spread should be an important thrust of future decision-support technologies.
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Sullivan, Andrew L. "Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 3: Simulation and mathematical analogue models." International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, no. 4 (2009): 387. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf06144.
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In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007. The present paper surveys models of a simulation or mathematical analogue nature. Most simulation models are implementations of existing empirical or quasi-empirical models and their primary function is to convert these generally one-dimensional models to two dimensions and then simulate the propagation of a fire perimeter across a modelled landscape. Mathematical analogue models are those that are based on some mathematical concept (rather than a physical representation of fire spread) that coincidentally represents the spread of fire. Other papers in the series survey models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and empirical or quasi-empirical nature. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.
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Kopylov, N. P., I. R. Khasanov, A. E. Kuznetsov, and E. Yu Sushkina. "Spark transfer in forest fires and their localization using aviation." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2389, no. 1 (December 1, 2022): 012012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2389/1/012012.
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Abstract The results of modelling of spark transfer as one of the most powerful factors influencing forest fire propagation are discussed in the paper. It is shown that this process depends on many factors such as the type and intensity of the fire, characteristics of forest vegetation, wind speed, size, mass and shape of burning particles, duration of their burning and terrain. The accuracy of the description of this process by mathematical methods depends on the degree of consideration of various factors affecting the transfer of burning particles. The developed mathematical models and the techniques created on their basis make it possible to assess the range of transport of burning particles and predict the risks of the occurrence and spread of fire including affecting settlements and objects. In particular, the obtained numerical values of the casting range of burning elements in forest fires allow correct determination of the size of the barrier strips near settlements and objects located in forests.
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Nuhut, Özgür, and Ihsan Sabuncuoglu. "Simulation Analysis of Army Casualty Evacuations." SIMULATION 78, no. 10 (October 2002): 612–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0037549702078010003.
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Since war games and field exercises are very expensive, mathematical models are often developed to analyze military systems. In this study, the authors investigate a brigade casualty evacuation system (BCES) via simulation. Specifically, they model the existing BCES of the Turkish Army and analyze the system to improve the patient flow processes in main facilities. The proposed model aims to provide the necessary information to the commanders in a maneuver, logistics, and medical unit about casualties such as time in medical facilities, waiting times in doctor queues, utilization of doctors, and percentages of casualties who return to duty or are sent to higher level medical facilities. The simulation model is also used to compare several alternative system designs and evaluate their impacts on system performance. The result of this study highlights the major problem areas of the system and the possible ways to deal with them.
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Sullivan, Erik A., and André G. McDonald. "Mathematical model and sensor development for measuring energy transfer from wildland fires." International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, no. 7 (2014): 995. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf14016.
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Current practices for measuring high heat flux in scenarios such as wildland forest fires use expensive, thermopile-based sensors, coupled with mathematical models based on a semi-infinite-length scale. Although these sensors are acceptable for experimental testing in laboratories, high error rates or the need for water cooling limits their applications in field experiments. Therefore, a one-dimensional, finite-length scale, transient-heat conduction model was developed and combined with an inexpensive, thermocouple-based rectangular sensor, to create a rapidly deployable, non-cooled sensor for testing in field environments. The proposed model was developed using concepts from heat conduction and with transient temperature boundary conditions, to avoid complicated radiation and convection conditions. Constant heat flux and tree-burning tests were respectively conducted using a mass loss cone calorimeter and a propane-fired radiant panel to validate the proposed analytical model and sensor as well as test the sensor in a simulated forest fire setting. The sensor was mounted directly beside a commercial Schmidt–Boelter gauge to provide data for comparison. The proposed heat flux measurement method provided results similar to those obtained from the commercial heat flux gauge to within one standard deviation. This suggests that the use of a finite-length scale model, coupled with an inexpensive thermocouple-based sensor, is effective in estimating the intense heat loads from wildland fires.
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Dobrinkova, Nina. "An Overview of Modelling Bulgarian Wildland Fire Behaviour by Application of a Mathematical Game Method and WRF-Fire Models." Serdica Journal of Computing 6, no. 4 (March 20, 2013): 451–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.55630/sjc.2012.6.451-466.
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This paper presents the main achievements of the author’s PhD dissertation. The work is dedicated to mathematical and semi-empirical approaches applied to the case of Bulgarian wildland fires. After the introductory explanations, short information from every chapter is extracted to cover the main parts of the obtained results. The methods used are described in brief and main outcomes are listed. ACM Computing Classification System (1998): D.1.3, D.2.0, K.5.1.
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Biehl, L. Charles. "Forest Fires, Oil Spills, and Fractal Geometry Part 2: Using Fractal Complexity to Analyze Mathematical Models." Mathematics Teacher 92, no. 2 (February 1999): 128–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.5951/mt.92.2.0128.
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Minguela-Castro, Gerardo, Ruben Heradio, and Carlos Cerrada. "Automated Support for Battle Operational–Strategic Decision-Making." Mathematics 9, no. 13 (June 30, 2021): 1534. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9131534.
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Battle casualties are the subject of study in military operations research, which applies mathematical models to quantify the probability of victory vs. loss. In particular, different approaches have been proposed to model the course of battles. However, none of them provide adequate decision-making support for high-level command. To overcome this situation, this paper presents an innovative high-level decision-making model, which uses an adaptive and predictive control architecture. The paper reports empirical evidence supporting our model by considering one of the greatest battles of World War II: the Battle of Crete.
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Kharin, Vladimir V., Vitaliy I. Sibirko, Andrey A. Kondashov, Evgeniy V. Bobrinev, and Elena Yu Udavtsova. "Dependence of death and injury of people in fires on the duration of fires." SAFETY OF TECHNOGENIC AND NATURAL SYSTEMS, no. 4 (November 30, 2021): 19–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.23947/2541-9129-2021-4-19-24.
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Introduction. The effectiveness of the actions of the fire protection units depends on their readiness for action, that is, on the state of the forces and means of the station and the ability to perform the main task within the existing tactical capabilities.
Problem Statement. When developing mathematical models of the operational activities of the fire department, its effectiveness and the assessment of the readiness of fire protection units to extinguish fires, it is important to study the dependence of the death of people in fires on the duration of the fire. This study is devoted to this task.
Theoretical Part. The distribution of fires in the Russian Federation for 2016-2020 by their duration and the dependence of deaths and injuries of people in fires, as well as their ratio to the duration of fires in the Russian Federation for 2016-2020, is studied. It is shown that the average duration of the fire during the studied period was 26 minutes, the median value of the distribution was 18 minutes. The dependences of deaths and injuries of people in fires on the duration of fires are approximated by a logarithmic function. When the duration of the fire is up to 26 minutes. the ratio of the number of people injured in fires to those killed decreases exponentially, but remains stable in the rest of the time range.
Conclusions. It is concluded that it is necessary to increase the readiness of the fire department for actions to extinguish fires and rescue people, which includes the development of an information and analytical model of the operational activities of the fire department.
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Qin, Xiaoyu, Qianmin Ma, Rongxin Guo, and Shaoen Tan. "Prediction of Compressive Strength Loss of Normal Concrete after Exposure to High Temperature." Applied Sciences 12, no. 23 (November 29, 2022): 12237. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app122312237.
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In recent years, there has been an increasing number of fires in buildings. The methods for detecting residual properties of buildings after fires are commonly destructive and subjective. In this context, property prediction based on mathematical modeling has exhibited its potential. Backpropagation (BP), particle swarm algorithms optimized-BP (PSO-BP) and random forest (RF) models were established in this paper using 1803 sets of data from the literature. Material and relevant heating parameters, as well as compressive strength loss percentage, were used as input and output parameters, respectively. Experimental work was also carried out to evaluate the feasibility of the models for prediction. The accuracy of all the models was sufficiently high, and they were also much more feasible for prediction. Moreover, based on the RF model, the importance of the inputting parameters was ranked as well. Such prediction has provided a new perspective to non-destructively and objectively assess the post-fire properties of concrete. Additionally, this model could be used to guide performance-based design for fire-resistant concrete.
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Hulida, E. M., I. V. Pasnak, O. E. Vasylieva, and I. O. Movchan. "Providing the environmental safety by increasing the efficiency of firefighting in unsheltered timber warehouses." Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, no. 1 (2021): 123–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2021-1/123.
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Purpose. To develop a method for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free burning of timber, the speed of fire front spread, emissions of combustion products and the duration of the firefighting. Methodology. During the experimental research, the method of fractional factor experiment was used. Theoretical research was performed using optimization mathematical models. The Monte Carlo method is used to solve optimization problems. To implement this method, block diagrams of algorithms was developed, based on written corresponded computer programs. Findings. The method was developed for reducing the impact of fires in unsheltered timber warehouses on the environmental safety by reducing the duration of free development of the fire, the speed of fire front spread, the concentration of combustion products and the duration of the fire. Fire prevention measures to reduce the duration of fire and to reduce emissions of combustion products due to fires in unsheltered timber warehouses was implemented by using an automated system to determine the fire extinguishing means and forces by setting an optimization problem, applying the Monte Carlo method and developing software to solve it. Originality. The scientific novelty is the justification of ways to reduce the duration of the free development of fire and to reduce the amount of toxic emissions using optimization mathematical models. Practical value. It is possible to use the obtained results in the practical activities of fire and rescue units of the SES of Ukraine and provide environmental safety in case of fire in unsheltered timber warehouse due to the practical implementation of administrative, legal and economic methods.
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Oliveira, Luis A., António G. Lopes, Bantwal R. Baliga, Miguel Almeida, and Domingos X. Viegas. "Numerical prediction of size, mass, temperature and trajectory of cylindrical wind-driven firebrands." International Journal of Wildland Fire 23, no. 5 (2014): 698. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf13080.
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Mathematical models and numerical solution procedures for predicting the trajectory, oscillation, possible rotation, and mass and size time-evolution of cylindrical wind-driven firebrands are described and discussed. Two test problems and the results, used for validating the mathematical models, are presented. In one, experimental measurements of non-burning cylindrical particles falling in still air are compared to numerical predictions and in the other, predictions of time-evolution of mass and size of stationary burning particles in air flows are compared with experimental results reported in the literature. Results yielded by the proposed models for a demonstration problem involving cylindrical wind-driven firebrands, with the same initial volume, mass and position, but different initial aspect ratios and distinct initial orientations relative to the wind velocity, are then presented. These results show the following: the horizontal distance travelled by the firebrand from release to landing locations is an increasing function of its initial aspect ratio; and the initial orientation of the firebrand, and its subsequent oscillations including possible rotation, have a significant influence on its trajectory, thus it is important to account for them in mathematical models formulated for predicting the spread of fires by spotting.
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Mangiameli, Michele, Giuseppe Mussumeci, and Annalisa Cappello. "Forest Fire Spreading Using Free and Open-Source GIS Technologies." Geomatics 1, no. 1 (January 25, 2021): 50–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geomatics1010005.
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Forest fires are one of the most dangerous events, causing serious land and environmental degradation. Indeed, besides the loss of a huge quantity of plant species, the effects of fires can go far beyond: desertification, increased risk of landslides, soil erosion, death of animals, etc. For these reasons, mathematical models able to predict fire spreading are needed in order to organize and optimize the extinguishing interventions during fire emergencies. This work presents a new system to simulate and predict the movement of the fire front based on free and open source Geographic Information System (GIS) technologies and the Rothermel surface fire spread model, with the adjustments made by Albini. We describe the mathematical models used, provide an overview of the GIS design and implementation, and present the results of some simulations at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy), characterized by high geomorphological heterogeneity, and where the native flora and fauna may be preserved and perpetuated. The results consist of raster maps representing the progress times of the fire front starting from an ignition point and as a function of the topography and wind directions. The reliability of results is strictly affected by the correct positioning of the fire ignition point, by the accuracy of the topography that describes the morphology of the territory, and by the setting of the meteorological conditions at the moment of the ignition and propagation of the fire.
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Matyushin, A. V., A. G. Firsov, Yu A. Matyushin, and V. S. Goncharenko. "Integral Assessment of the Results of the Activities of the Main Directorate of the EMERCOM of Russia by the Subjects of the Russian Federation in 2021." Occupational Safety in Industry, no. 9 (September 2022): 28–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.24000/0409-2961-2022-9-28-33.
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The legislation of the Russian Federation established that the criteria for assigning control objects to the risk of harm should be formed based on the results of an assessment of the risk of harm. In the existing literary sources there are no mathematical models for determining the risk of harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings for an integral assessment of the results of the fire authority activities. A mathematical model was developed and tested to determine the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings on the territory of the subjects of the Russian Federation. This allows to evaluate the results of the activities of the main departments of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia by the subjects of the Russian Federation, and to determine the categories of the level of ensuring fire safety depending on the calculated value of the risk of harm. As a criterion for assigning the subjects of the Russian Federation to different categories of the level of ensuring their fire safety, it is proposed to use the risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires in buildings located on the territory of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation. The values of the risk of harm for each subject of the Russian Federation are given. It is established that the distribution of the subjects of the Russian Federation by categories of the level of ensuring fire safety significantly depends on the objectivity of statistical information about fires and the number of buildings on the territory of each subject. The assessment of the results of the activities of each of the 86 main departments of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia is given. Their rating is determined depending on the calculated value of the risk of causing harm, as a result of fires on the territory of the relevant subject of the Russian Federation.
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Sullivan, Andrew L. "Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 1: Physical and quasi-physical models." International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, no. 4 (2009): 349. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf06143.
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In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across the landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007, providing a useful starting point for those readers interested in recent modelling activities. The current paper surveys models of a physical or quasi-physical nature. These models are based on the fundamental chemistry and physics, or physics alone, of combustion and fire spread. Other papers in the series review models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but in much less detail.
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Anisin, A. V., A. V. Denisov, and V. M. Shapovalov. "The severity degree estimation for the lower extremity blast injury." Bulletin of the Russian Military Medical Academy 21, no. 2 (December 15, 2019): 215–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/brmma25947.
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The present review is concerned with the modern state of the problem connected with the severity degree estimation of the lower extremity blast injury. The specific character of modern combat activity is considered to be the prevalence of the blast trauma in the structure of casualties, this trauma amounting up to 69% of all the combat injuries. The problem of the adequate unbiased estimation of the severity degree for this kind of trauma appears to be critical, because it is important for the appraisal of the necessary volume of medical care provided for the casualties and optimal assignment of the casualties to the medical evacuation stages beginning from the combat zone up to the specialized trauma center. The combat blast trauma is distinguished from the civilian trauma, it also differs from blast injuries occurring during technological disasters. In this regard, the use of traditional estimation parameters for the lower extremity trauma severity, based on clinical findings of civilian injuries, seems not possible. The development of appropriate severity estimation technique for the lower extremity blast trauma is essential not only for the medical care, but also for the adequate experimental modeling processes using human cadavers and biomorphic models, and the development of virtual “mathematical” simulators. Currently, investigators are involved in developing specific severity degree estimation scales for the lower extremity blast injury, based on the case histories analysis and casualties’ follow-up. Foreign experts have proposed a number of assessment classifications of mine-explosive injury, allowing to formulate a diagnosis and determine the severity of the injured explosive limb injuries. In our country, there is currently no generally accepted classification developed in relation to the explosive injury of the lower extremities, but the methods proposed by domestic military field surgeons and traumatologists allow us to effectively assess the severity of this injury and make a certain sorting decision.
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Nuianzin, Oleksandr, Taras Samchenko, Serhii Kasiarum, Kostiantyn Hryhorenko, and Mykola Kryshtal. "The Heat Exchange Mathematical Model of Fire in Cable Tunnel Adequacy Research." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.3 (September 15, 2018): 303. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.3.19810.
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According to the results of the conducted studies, the adequacy of the mathematical models of cable tunnels for their further use in the study of the temperature regime of the fire was checked. For this purpose, full–scale tests and findings about the dynamics of temperature change in cable tunnels with known geometrical parameters and fire load were conducted at the experimental test site of the Ukrainian Civil Protection Research Institute (Kyiv).In one of the CFD software systems, a mathematical model of a cable tunnel similar to the actual one was created. A computational experiment was conducted. Based on the results of the computational experiment and field tests, the criteria for adequacy (Student's t–criterion, Cochran's Q–criterion, Fisher's F–criterion) and the relative error of the experiments were calculated. On the basis of the analysis, the adequacy of the used mathematical models was studied.In this article, further development of the use of computational experiments to study the heat and mass exchange processes during fires in cable tunnels.
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White, Benjamin Leonardo Alves, Larissa Alves Secundo White, Genésio Tâmara Ribeiro, and Rosemeri Melo Souza. "FIRE BEHAVIOR PREDICTING MODELS EFFICIENCY IN BRAZILIAN COMMERCIAL EUCALYPT PLANTATIONS." CERNE 22, no. 4 (December 2016): 389–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/01047760201622042226.
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ABSTRACT Knowing how a wildfire will behave is extremely important in order to assist in fire suppression and prevention operations. Since the 1940’s mathematical models to estimate how the fire will behave have been developed worldwide, however, none of them, until now, had their efficiency tested in Brazilian commercial eucalypt plantations nor in other vegetation types in the country. This study aims to verify the accuracy of the Rothermel (1972) fire spread model, the Byram (1959) flame length model, and the fire spread and length equations derived from the McArthur (1962) control burn meters. To meet these objectives, 105 experimental laboratory fires were done and their results compared with the predicted values from the models tested. The Rothermel and Byram models predicted better than McArthur’s, nevertheless, all of them underestimated the fire behavior aspects evaluated and were statistically different from the experimental data.
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Wang, Ru-Guan, Pai-Yu Wu, Chang-Yuan Liu, Jia-Cheng Tan, Mei-Ling Chuang, and Chien-Cheng Chou. "Route Planning for Fire Rescue Operations in Long-Term Care Facilities Using Ontology and Building Information Models." Buildings 12, no. 7 (July 21, 2022): 1060. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12071060.
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As our society ages, more and more elderly or disabled people live in long-term care (LTC) facilities, which are vulnerable to fires and may result in heavy casualties. Because of the low mobility of LTC residents, firefighters often need to enter the facility to save people. In addition, due to LTC facility management needs, many doors or windows on the passages for a fire rescue operation may be blocked. Thus, firefighters have to employ forcible entry tools such as disk cutters for passing through, which may lengthen the rescue time if an incorrect route or tool is utilized. As new information technologies such as ontology and building information modeling (BIM) have matured, this research aims at proposing a BIM-based ontology model to help firefighters determine better rescue routes instead of using rules of thumb. Factors such as the path length, building components and materials encountered, and forcible entry tools carried are considered in the model. Real LTC fire investigation reports are used for the comparisons between the original routes and the ones generated by the proposed model, and seven experts joined the evaluation workshop to provide further insights. The experts agreed that using the proposed approach can lead to better fire rescue route planning. The proposed BIM-based ontology model could be extended to accommodate additional needs for hospital fire scenes, in the hopes of enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of firefighters’ rescue operations in such important facilities.
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Sullivan, Andrew L. "Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models." International Journal of Wildland Fire 18, no. 4 (2009): 369. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/wf06142.
Full textAbstract:
In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007. The current paper surveys models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature. These models are based on the statistical analysis of experimentally obtained data with or without some physical framework for the basis of the relations. Other papers in the series review models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. The main relations of empirical models are those of wind speed and fuel moisture content with rate of forward spread. The focus of the discussion is on the treatment of the wind speed and fuel moisture functions by the models.
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Nuianzin, Oleksandr, Mykola Kryshtal, Artem Nesterenko, Dmytro Kryshtal, and Taras Samchenko. "Investigation of the regularities of temperature regime of fire in cable tunnels depending on its parameters." MATEC Web of Conferences 230 (2018): 02022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201823002022.
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Simulation, as a method of scientific research, makes it possible, without performing costly and labor-intensive field experiments on models, to carry out all necessary experiments to determine the temperature modes of fire in cable tunnels. The purpose of the research of this work was to determine the temperature regime of fire in a cable tunnel depending on its shape, size and fire load. Mathematical models of cable tunnels were created in one of the CFD software systems. Cable products are constantly evolving and improving. For tests on the fire resistance of building structures of cable tunnels, a standard temperature mode of fire is used which may not correspond to fire mode in a real cable tunnel. The computational experiments were carried out and the temperature regimes of fires in tunnels with different parameters were determined. The obtained results showed the parameters of cable tunnels, which influence the temperature regime of fire in tunnels most. In this paper the use of computational experiments for the study of heat and mass transfer processes in fires in cable tunnels was examined further. CFD Fire Dynamics Simulator 6.2 was used.
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Kukkonen, J., J. Nikmo, M. Sofiev, K. Riikonen, T. Petäjä, A. Virkkula, J. Levula, S. Schobesberger, and D. M. Webber. "Applicability of an integrated plume rise model for the dispersion from wild-land fires." Geoscientific Model Development Discussions 7, no. 1 (January 16, 2014): 483–527. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-483-2014.
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Abstract. We have presented an overview of a mathematical model, BUOYANT, that was originally designed for the evaluation of the dispersion of buoyant plumes originated from major warehouse fires. The model addresses the variations of the cross-plume integrated properties of a buoyant plume in the presence of a vertically varying atmosphere. The model also includes a treatment for a rising buoyant plume interacting with an inversion layer. We have compared the model predictions with the data of two prescribed wild-land fire experiments. For the SCAR-C experiment in Quinault (US) in 1994, the predicted vertical extents of the plume at maximum plume rise were between 500–800 m and 200–700 m, using two alternative meteorological datasets. The corresponding observed injection heights of the aerosol particles measured using an airborne LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) ranged from 250 and 600 m. For the prescribed burning experiment in Hyytiälä (Finland) in 2009, the model predictions were compared with plume elevations and diameters, determined based on particulate matter number concentration measurements on board an aeroplane. The agreement of modelled and measured results was good, provided that one assumes the measured maximum convective heat fluxes as input data for the model. The results demonstrate that in field experiments on wild-land fires, there are substantial uncertainties in estimating both (i) the source terms for the atmospheric dispersion computations, and (ii) the relevant vertical meteorological profiles. The results provide more confidence that cross-plume integrated mathematical models, such as the BUOYANT model, can be used to fairly good accuracy for evaluating the dispersion from major wild-land fires.
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Barrile, V., G. Bilotta, A. Fotia, and E. Bernardo. "INTEGRATED GIS SYSTEM FOR POST-FIRE HAZARD ASSESSMENTS WITH REMOTE SENSING." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLIV-3/W1-2020 (November 18, 2020): 13–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xliv-3-w1-2020-13-2020.
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Abstract. Fires continue to devour hundreds of thousands of hectares of forest even in 2020, generating gigantic damage to the ecosystem, if we think that we are in the midst of a climate crisis caused precisely by CO2 emissions into the atmosphere by man, due to burning of fossil fuels. The action to safeguard the territory and the fight against its progressive environmental degradation focus a great attention towards forest fires, also considering the enormous environmental damage that these have caused to important and very large areas of the globe. The aim of the contribution that we here propose is the design and implementation of a software tool that performs predictive functions of triggering possible forest fires, thanks to the integration and manipulation of data from different sources and processed by predictive mathematical models, to support decisions; the comparison of techniques for the processing of high-resolution remote sensing data from optical satellites for the best automatic discrimination of the areas covered by fire plays a fundamental role in the analysis. This allows managing the burnt areas also considering subsequent fire risks, and the integration of the techniques developed in a GIS in order to obtain an accurate perimeter and a fire risk map prevision.
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Topolskiy, N. G., V. Ya Vilisov, R. Sh Khabibulin, B. M. Pranov, and F. V. Demekhin. "Application of Markov chains to rank fires and forecast fire development phases." Pozharovzryvobezopasnost/Fire and Explosion Safety 30, no. 6 (February 3, 2022): 39–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.22227/0869-7493.2021.30.06.39-51.
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Introduction. The simulation of fire development and suppression processes must take account of a large number of random factors concerning the fire environment and the resources, available for its putting out. An important feature of the fire development is its step-by-step nature, whereby one phase (stage) is naturally replaced by another as a result of physical combustion processes and decisions made amid certain states of fire. In the practice of modeling multiphase (multistage) processes, such models as decision trees, multistep positional games, random processes, including discrete Markov chains, and others are widely used. Each of these models has its own structure and parameters. The choice of the model structure for a particular application represents a heuristic step. In almost every case, parameters of models are set on the basis of logical inferences, physics, ongoing processes and available statistical data about the simulated phenomenon. This approach is usually referred to as normative. Its alternative is an adaptive approach, whereby model parameters are evaluated using historical data. This approach allows to make models that are sufficiently similar to real objects and capable of adapting to the nonstationary features of the environment and the changeability of the decision maker’s preferences.The relevance of the study lies in the development of a machine learning technology for the Markov models of the fire development process, which allow predicting the completion time of individual phases and the whole fire. The Markov model can also serve as the basis for determining the optimal fire rank.Goals and objectives. The aim of the work is to create and test the technology for designing models that allow to make projections of the fire completion time. The tasks of the model machine learning and its use as a tool for making projections and determining the rank of fire are set in line with this goal.Methods. The authors used methods of the theory of random processes, mathematical statistics, simulation modeling, technical and economic evaluations. The research is based on materials extracted from domestic and foreign publications.Results and discussion. The proposed method, designated for the machine learning of the Markov chains using statistical data on the response time of firefighting and rescue units, coupled with the use of trained models, technical and economic evaluations for assigning optimal fire ranks allow to apply algorithms built on their basis as part of fire safety decision support systems.Conclusions. The presented solutions to the problem of designing adequate models designated for projecting fire development phases and assigning fire ranks serve as the basis for effective decision support systems in terms of the short-term fire safety management.
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Monzón, Julia, Federico Liberatore, and Begoña Vitoriano. "A Mathematical Pre-Disaster Model with Uncertainty and Multiple Criteria for Facility Location and Network Fortification." Mathematics 8, no. 4 (April 3, 2020): 529. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math8040529.
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Disasters have catastrophic effects on the affected population, especially in developing and underdeveloped countries. Humanitarian Logistics models can help decision-makers to efficiently and effectively warehouse and distribute emergency goods to the affected population, to reduce casualties and suffering. However, poor planning and structural damage to the transportation infrastructure could hamper these efforts and, eventually, make it impossible to reach all the affected demand centers. In this paper, a pre-disaster Humanitarian Logistics model is presented that jointly optimizes the prepositioning of aid distribution centers and the strengthening of road sections to ensure that as much affected population as possible can efficiently get help. The model is stochastic in nature and considers that the demand in the centers affected by the disaster and the state of the transportation network are random. Uncertainty is represented through scenarios representing possible disasters. The methodology is applied to a real-world case study based on the 2018 storm system that hit the Nampula Province in Mozambique.
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Karouni, Ali, Bassam Daya, Samia Bahlak, and Pierre Chauvet. "A Simplified Mathematical Model for Fire Spread Predictions in Wildland Fires Combining between the Models of Anderson and Rothermel." International Journal of Modeling and Optimization 4, no. 3 (June 2014): 197–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.7763/ijmo.2014.v4.372.
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Klyuchko, Olena, Vladimir Shutko, Olena Kolganova, Alina Lizunova, and Denis Navrotskyi. "Information Technologies: Physical and Mathematical Models of Detectors for Environment Monitoring Systems." Electronics and Control Systems 4, no. 70 (January 4, 2022): 9–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.18372/1990-5548.70.16736.
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Ecological monitoring is a real need in contemporary world with its growing tendency of environmental industrial pollution. Among such pollutants there are chemicals emanated in fires, explosions and other emergencies, in process of ruining of chemical enterprises, enterprises of oil and gas cycle, and etc. Some information systems for appropriate monitoring were described briefly in this article together with incorporated hybrid system of electronic chemical pollution detectors that were able to input information to such systems. In previous works of the authors the necessity of development of two types of such detectors with specified properties were substantiated: biosensors and detectors with elements – artificially elaborated selective membranes. This article describes the second type of detectors. The proposed detectors were able to detect harmful chemicals in the environment in the air and water phases; development of such devices was based on the theory of membrane systems. The detectors contained sensor elements covered with chemo-sensitive specific coatings – layers of substances: membranes, films, etc. When in contact with certain chemicals, these detectors demonstrate the properties of chemo-sensitivity and primary identification of such compounds. These studies were aimed on developing detectors of various environmental pollutants based on the theory that can be used as a basis for the detection of such substances. The works were based on a deep study of membrane systems with further development of physical and mathematical models of some substances detection taking into account basic chemical and physical properties of artificial and natural membranes, as well as their ionic selectivity. Some results of mathematical modeling of such detectors with artificial membranes – chemo-sensitive surfaces – were described in the article. Summarizing the previous experience, a brief review of authors’ publications in these items was done, as well as the works of some other authors. The purpose of the work was, basing on profound studying of artificial membrane systems, to suggest them as physical model and summarize the experience of development of their mathematical models.
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Baranovskiy, Nikolay, and Viktoriya Kirienko. "Mathematical Simulation of Forest Fuel Pyrolysis in One-Dimensional Statement Taking into Account Soot Formation." Processes 9, no. 9 (September 8, 2021): 1616. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pr9091616.
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Pyrolysis (thermal decomposition) is considered as the most important stage of a forest fire before direct forest fuel ignition. This process is accompanied by soot particle formation. Such particles have a negative impact on public health in the vicinity of forest fires. The purpose of this article was to investigate the heat and mass transfer process occurring in a typical forest fuel element (birch leaf). The pyrolysis and soot formation processes were taken into account, and various forest fire scenarios were considered. Computational experiments were carried out using the high-level programming language Delphi. Heat and mass transfer processes were described by nonlinear non-stationary differential heat conduction equations with corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The differential equations were solved by the finite difference method. Nonlinearity was resolved using a simple iteration. The main results of the research were (1) physical and mathematical models proposed for modeling forest fuel pyrolysis, taking into account soot formation and conditions corresponding to various forest fires; (2) a computer program coded in the high-level programming language Delphi; (3) the obtained temperature distributions over leaf thickness; (4) volume fractions obtained for various components dependent on time and space coordinates. The qualitative analysis of the dependencies showed that the temperature distributions in the birch leaf structure are similar for all forest fire types and differ only in absolute value. The intensity of the soot formation process directly depends on the forest fire type. The presented results should be useful in predicting and assessing forest fire danger, including near the facilities of the Russian Railways.
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Kovalenko, Roman, Sergii Nazarenko, Volodymyr Demianyshyn, Oleksandr Kolienov, and Valeriya Semkiv. "Дослідження статистики потоку пожеж, що виникають на території міст." Problems of Emergency Situations, no. 34 (2021): 134–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.52363/2524-0226-2021-34-10.
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The flow of calls related to fires occurring on the territory of cities has been investigated. To do this, using the methods of cluster analysis, the cities were divided into groups according to the criteria of population size and area. As a result, the cities were grouped into six groups. Only Kiev was included in a separate group. Further, five cities were selected from each of the groups and statistics on the number of fires for the period of 2020 were processed. Based on the data obtained, a statistical hypothesis was tested that the flow of fires occurring in cities can be described by the Poisson distribution law. The Romanovsky criterion was chosen as the consistency criterion. In total, out of 26 cities under study in 7 cities, the call flow can be described by the Poisson distribution law. The indicator of the call flow associated with fires for these cities ranged from 69 to 342. The only city in this range for which the previously mentioned hypothesis was not confirmed was the city of Kherson. For cities where the annual fire rate was less than 69 or more than 342, the statistical hypothesis of Poisson call traffic was not confirmed. Variance was also calculated based on the data reflecting the daily number of calls in cities during the year. It was found that for cities for which the Poisson distribution of the call flow was con-firmed, this indicator ranges from 0.21 to 1.72. Accordingly, the flow of fires that occurs in cities cannot always be described by the Poisson distribution law, and therefore, before using the mathematical models built on its basis for research, it is necessary to first test this hypothesis. Failure to fulfill the above condition may further negatively affect the adequacy of the results obtained.
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Kryvonosov, Valery, and Serhii Vasylenko. "MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR DIAGNOSTICS OF A BOLTED CONDUCTIVE JOINT UNDER CONDITIONS OF CHANGING MODE PARAMETERS." Bulletin of the National Technical University "KhPI". Series: Energy: Reliability and Energy Efficiency, no. 1 (2) (July 2, 2021): 45–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.20998/2224-0349.2021.01.07.
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The reliability of the transmission and distribution of electricity in ports, ships and energy enterprises depends on the condition of the bolted conductive joints. Operational practice shows that 2 % of cases of emergency shutdowns of technological lines and fires on electrical equipment occur due to the weakening of bolted conductive joints. The main reasons for the bolted joint weakening are dynamic changes in operating current loads and changes in climatic parameters. It is possible to increase the reliability of bolted conductive joints using modern diagnostic methods that allow identifying the appearance of bolted joint weakening. The existing methods for diagnosing the state of bolted joints, which are based on monitoring the temperature of the bolted joint, are analysed. It has been established that the use of such methods to identify the initial moment of the joint weakening is impractical, since they react to the emergency state of the bolted joint, that is, to the critical temperature value. To identify the initial moment of the bolted joint weakening, it is proposed to simultaneously monitor the values of the load current and the parameters of the ambient air, which makes it possible to increase the reliability of detecting pre-emergency situations. To diagnose the initial moment of the bolted joint weakening, it is proposed to use the estimated Boolean functions. Arguments of Boolean variables are obtained for a stationary and continuous process of changing current and ambient temperatures, a stationary and deterministic process as well as a random and deterministic process. The minimized Boolean functions are given for the normal operation of the bolted joint, when the initial moment of weakening appears and when the emergency mode occurs.
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Shnal, Taras, Serhii Pozdieiev, Oleksandr Nuianzin, and Stanislav Sidnei. "Improvement of the Assessment Method for Fire Resistance of Steel Structures in the Temperature Regime of Fire under Realistic Conditions." Materials Science Forum 1006 (August 2020): 107–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/msf.1006.107.
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There was researched the influence of fire temperature regimes, obtained by the proposed mathematical models, on the mechanical characteristics of metal structures. As a result, the identified patterns of the influence of the parameters of the premises with fires are shown as the slit coefficient decreases and the fire load density increases, the actual limit of fire resistance begins to decrease, as well as at values of fire load density less than 600 [MJ/m2], there is an area where the occurrence of a boundary state is not observed and Nomograms for determining the limit of fire resistance for steel structures at standard values of critical temperature were constructed and an appropriate method was developed.
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Lavrov, Evgeniy, Olga Siryk, Aleksandr Volosiuk, Aleksandr Zolkin, and Nelly Sedova. "Sustainability and reliability ensurance models for automated technological systems in chemical industry: systemic ergonomic approach." E3S Web of Conferences 280 (2021): 02005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202128002005.
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The paper considers accidents and potential hazards of the world chemical enterprises, and provides statistics of accidents and human casualties. The authors investigate harmful factors affecting the production process and a human-operator, showing the central role of a human in the technological process (both as a source of errors and as an active element that eliminates errors, failures and cyber attacks’ consequences). We essentially consider automated technological complex as a Human-Machine-Environment system, thus a human-system approach should be applied. The authors developed a complex of systemic components and morphological models, which describe the human-machine system in the sections required for analysis, to ensure sustainable and reliable design with initial data. The authors also propose a method and information technology for interfaces’ ergonomic assessment; the principles for adaptive interfaces design; and mathematical models and information technology to assess safety and timeliness indicators of the chemical production operators’ activities. The models are based on the principles of the functional-structural theory by Anatoly Gubinsky, Vladimir Evgrafov, Akiva Asherov, Pavel Chabaneko and others, and on the mathematical apparatus of functional networks. Further, the authors develop an optimization model for decision supporting organizing the human-machine control technology, using the criterion of minimizing losses from unreliability and unsustainability. Both the models and the information technology have undergone extensive testing, including solving the tasks of: choosing the automation level for the control process; distributing functions between operators; control algorithms design; user interface design, design of agent-managers to support the operators’ activities. The results can be used as the basis for a decision support system to ensure sustainability and reliability of automated technological systems in chemical industry.
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Hulida, E. M., O. M. Koval, and V. V. Sharii. "PROVIDING FIRE PROTECTION OF INDUSTRIAL WAREHOUSE FACILITIES CONSIDERING FIRE RISK." Fire Safety, no. 34 (July 19, 2019): 28–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.32447/20786662.34.2019.05.
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Formulation of the problem. Minimizing the consequences of fires is the problem of particular importance for the cities of Ukraine. Closed and open warehouses in industrial enterprises are the buildings of the highest risk. Due to the results of the analysis, the problem is that insufficient consideration is given to the provision of fire protection of industrial warehouse facilities. Proceeding from the above it is possible to state that the elaboration of the main directions of provision of fire protection of industrial warehouse facilities is very important. The goal of the work. To develop a methodology for providing fire protection of industrial warehouse facilities taking into account the fire risk. Tasks setting and their solution. To ensure the fire protection of industrial warehouse facilities, the following tasks must be addressed as a priority: 1) to develop a classification of industrial warehouse facilities for the possible grouping of fire-prevention means for protection of such facilities during fires; 2) to develop mathematical dependencies for determining the required number of fire-prevention means for industrial warehouse facilities; 3) to develop a methodology for providing fire protection of industrial warehouse facilities taking into account the fire risk. To solve the first problem, recommendations were taken into account, on the basis of which the scheme of classification of industrial warehouse facilities was developed. In order to solve the second task in the first stage, all necessary fire protection facilities were determined to ensure the fire safety of industrial warehouse facilities. After accepting all necessary fire-fighting equipment for the provision of fire safety of industrial warehouse facilities, mathematical dependencies have been developed to determine their required quantity. To solve the third task the recommendations of the World Health Organization and the Decree of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine dated February 29, 2012, № 306 was used. Taking into account the above mentioned fire protection systems, mathematical models of fire risk calculation for closed, semi-closed and open industrial and warehouse facilities were developed. Conclusions and specific suggestions: 1. The mathematical models of fire risks for closed, semi-closed and open industrial warehouse facilities are given, which make it possible to develop a methodology for determining the optimal amount of fire-fighting equipment and thereby provide fire protection for these objects. 2. To optimize the choice of the required number of fire-fighting equipment, it is necessary to establish an optimization criterion that would be based on the determined direct losses from the fire, expenses of the fire and rescue units for the elimination of fire and expenses for fire protection. 3. The developed mathematical models of fire risks require further improvement with the aim of their introduction and use on the basis of information technologies. These models allow to take all necessary measures for providing fire safety during the audit of closed, semi-closed and open industrial warehouse facilities.
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Kim, Doo-young, and Chan-sol Ahn. "Numerical Study on Vertically Rising Time of Plumes in Stairwells of High-rise Buildings." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 20, no. 2 (April 30, 2020): 153–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2020.20.2.153.
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The vulnerabilities of high-rise buildings to fires and the safe evacuation of the occupants therein have been consistently highlighted in the media. Unexpected natural disasters that occur frequently such as earthquakes increase the potential risk in large cities. If an earthquake with a magnitude that exceeds the load for safety design occurs and causes a fire in a high-rise building, it would lead to serious casualties among the occupants evacuating the building. This study represented the stairs in high-rise buildings using several full-scale models and examined the characteristics of a high temperature plume rising vertically from the ignition source using numerical analysis with Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). We analyzed the effects of calorific value and ventilation in the middle floors and examined the time taken by a plume rising vertically from the stairs to reach each floor. Furthermore, the empirical line suggested by McCaffrey (1979) was used to compare the characteristics of a plume rising vertically inside stairs and in a limited space with those of a plume rising vertically in an open space. Based on the time taken by a plume front to rise, which is calculated based on numerical analyses, this study identified and suggested an experiment equation to make it possible to predict the time taken by a plume to rise from the stairs in a typical high-rise building.
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Dashko, Vitaly Mikhailovich. "Modeling of fire risk management support in the residential sector during individual insurance." Technology of technosphere safety 97 (2022): 160–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.25257/tts.2022.3.97.160-170.
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Introduction. A significant factor influencing the reduction of the risk of death in case of fires in the residential sector is the presence of fire alarm systems (FAS) in residential premises. Ensuring FAS in the course of insurance is one of the effective ways to improve the level of fire safety in the residential sector. The relevance of the study lies in the development of a support model for fire risk management in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance of residential real estate in the Russian Federation. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the article is the development of calculation models for determining the economic effect for the insurer and the insured from the presence of FAS at the insurance object and the development of a support model for fire risk management in the residential sector based on the individual insurance system. This goal allows us to solve the problem of improving the level of fire safety in the residential sector on the territory of the Russian Federation. Methods. The basis of theoretical research was the methods of system analysis, mathematical statistics, socio-economic analysis and mathematical modeling. The basis of the study was domestic and foreign sources, statistical materials and the results of research work on the subject of the study. Results and discussion. Solutions have been found to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance of residential real estate. And new scientifically substantiated results of the implementation of the tasks set are presented, the solution of which is essential for improving the level of fire safety in the Russian Federation. Conclusions. The results of solving a scientific problem to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector in the course of individual insurance in the territory of the Russian Federation are presented. The decision is based on economic motivation, both insurers and policyholders. Calculation models for determining the economic effect for the insurer and the insured from the presence of FAS at the insurance object are proposed and a model is developed to support the management of fire risks in the residential sector based on the individual insurance system, which allows achieving voluntary, economically motivated fulfillment of fire safety requirements. The socio-economic expediency of the developed model is shown. Keywords: fires, loss of life in fires, integral fire risks, fire automatics, residential real estate insurance.
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Grecea, Danut, Gabriela Pupazan, Zoltan Vass, Cosmin Colda, and Adriana Andris. "Analysis of the purge time values for pressurized enclosure using a parameterized CFD model." MATEC Web of Conferences 342 (2021): 04005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/202134204005.
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The use of computerized simulations offers definite advantages in understanding phenomena and analysing parameters that have influence during a complex process, more can provide on the basis of scenarios valuable information on the effects for physical processes analysed. Thus, in this paper, using mathematical models and numerical solutions based on physical principles and functions with assumed accuracy are analyse, using CFD (Computational fluids dynamics), the values of purge time for pressurized enclosure, resulting in the action of post-processing of construction for graphs and colour icons, in order to render images as representative possible both for the design phase of the equipment with protection type pressurization “p” and for their evaluation for certification. Determining the values of purging time by using computer simulations is particularly important for avoiding catastrophic events caused by explosions that can lead to human casualties, significant material losses or have significant environmental consequences.
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Zhdanova, Alena, Geniy Kuznetsov, Jean Legros, and Pavel Strizhak. "Thermal conditions for stopping pyrolysis of forest combustible material and applications to firefighting." Thermal Science 21, no. 6 Part A (2017): 2565–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci151006121z.
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Five models describing heat transfer during evaporation of the water sprayed over the forest to stop fires and to cool down the pyrolysis of the bio- top layer are established and investigated by a parametric approach. It aims to improve the understanding of the behaviour and the properties of the forest combustible material. A mathematical description of forest combustible material surfaces (needles of pine and fir-tree, leaves of birch) is established. The characteristic time, td, to cool down the forest combustible material layer below the temperature of the onset of the pyrolysis is the important parameter investigated in the present work. The effective conditions were determined allowing to reach the shortest td and the lowest consumption of e. g. water to be dropped.