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Academic literature on the topic 'Fires Casualties Mathematical models'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 December 2022
Last updated: 28 January 2023

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Journal articles on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

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Kumar, Rajiv, A. K. Gupta, and M. Naveen. "Compartment Fires: BFD Curve and Mathematical Models." Journal of Applied Fire Science 17, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 73–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.2190/af.17.1.e.

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Mazakov, T. Zh, and A. A. Sametova. "CLASSIFICATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR FOREST AND STEPPE FIRES." REPORTS OF THE NAS RK 5, no. 339 (October 15, 2021): 219–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.32014/2021.2518-1483.102.

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Anoikin, Roman K. "Analysis of Mathematical Models Used for Forest Ground Fires Forecasting." Технологии гражданской безопасности 17, no. 2 (2020): 58–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.54234/cst.19968493.2020.17.2.64.10.58.

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Wang, Ziqi, Tao Peng, and Zhaoyou Lu. "Comparative Research on Forest Fire Image Segmentation Algorithms Based on Fully Convolutional Neural Networks." Forests 13, no. 7 (July 19, 2022): 1133. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f13071133.

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In recent years, frequent forest fires have plagued countries all over the world, causing serious economic damage and human casualties. Faster and more accurate detection of forest fires and timely interventions have become a research priority. With the advancement in deep learning, fully convolutional network architectures have achieved excellent results in the field of image segmentation. More researchers adopt these models to segment flames for fire monitoring, but most of the works are aimed at fires in buildings and industrial scenarios. However, there are few studies on the application of various fully convolutional models to forest fire scenarios, and comparative experiments are inadequate. In view of the above problems, on the basis of constructing the dataset with remote-sensing images of forest fires captured by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and the targeted optimization of the data enhancement process, four classical semantic segmentation models and two backbone networks are selected for modeling and testing analysis. By comparing inference results and the evaluation indicators of models such as mPA and mIoU, we can find out the models that are more suitable for forest fire segmentation scenarios. The results show that the U-Net model with Resnet50 as a backbone network has the highest segmentation accuracy of forest fires with the best comprehensive performance, and is more suitable for scenarios with high-accuracy requirements; the DeepLabV3+ model with Resnet50 is slightly less accurate than U-Net, but it can still ensure a satisfying segmentation performance with a faster running speed, which is suitable for scenarios with high real-time requirements. In contrast, FCN and PSPNet have poorer segmentation performance and, hence, are not suitable for forest fire detection scenarios.
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Lu, Ying, Xiaopeng Fan, Zhipan Zhao, and Xuepeng Jiang. "Dynamic Fire Risk Classification Prediction of Stadiums: Multi-Dimensional Machine Learning Analysis Based on Intelligent Perception." Applied Sciences 12, no. 13 (June 29, 2022): 6607. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12136607.

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Stadium fires can easily cause massive casualties and property damage. The early risk prediction of stadiums will be able to reduce the incidence of fires by making corresponding fire safety management and decision making in an early and targeted manner. In the field of building fires, some studies apply data mining techniques and machine learning algorithms to the collected risk hazard data for fire risk prediction. However, most of these studies use all attributes in the dataset, which may degrade the performance of predictive models due to data redundancy. Furthermore, machine learning algorithms are numerous and applied to fewer stadium fires, and it is crucial to explore models suitable for predicting stadium fire risk. The purpose of this study was to identify salient features to build a model for predicting stadium fire risk predictions. In this study, we designed an index attribute threshold interval to classify and quantify different fire risk data. We then used Gradient Boosting-Recursive Feature Elimination (GB-RFE) and Pearson correlation analysis to perform efficient feature selection on risk feature attributes to find the most informative salient feature subsets. Two cross-validation strategies were employed to address the dataset imbalance problem. Using the smart stadium fire risk data set provided by the Wuhan Emergency Rescue Detachment, the optimal prediction model was obtained based on the identified significant features and six machine learning methods of 12 combination forms, and full features were input as an experimental comparison study. Five performance evaluation metrics were used to evaluate and compare the combined models. Results show that the best performing model had an F1 score of 81.9% and an accuracy of 93.2%. Meanwhile, by introducing a precision-recall curve to explain the actual classification performance of each model, AdaBoost achieves the highest Auprc score (0.78), followed by SVM (0.77), which reveals more stable performance under such imbalanced data.
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Urrutia, J. D., L. A. Bautista, and E. B. Baccay. "Mathematical models for estimating earthquake casualties and damage cost through regression analysis using matrices." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 495 (April 4, 2014): 012024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/495/1/012024.

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Labovská, Zuzana, and Juraj Labovský. "Estimation of thermal effects on receptor from pool fires." Acta Chimica Slovaca 9, no. 2 (October 1, 2016): 169–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/acs-2016-0029.

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Abstract The aim of this contribution is to provide an overview of the calculation procedures of risk analysis, that is, the effects and consequences of pool fires. Fires and explosions are the most significant and most common causes of damage to equipment and of injuries and death in industry. Damages are a direct consequence of the generated heat flux. Mathematical tools for the prediction of heat flux at a distance can be divided into four classes: semi-empirical models, field models, integral models and zone models. Semi-empirical modeling is a relatively simple technique providing models predicting heat flux at a distance. There are two types of semi-empirical models: point source models and surface emitter models. By their nature, semi-empirical models depend strongly on experimental data. Correlations are able to describe the general features of a fire. Semi-empirical models are ideal for routine hazard assessment purposes because they are mathematically simple, and hence easily understood. However, if more models describing the same phenomenon are available, significant differences in the heat flux prediction can be expected. In this contribution, differences in the prediction of the heat flux from pool fires are discussed.
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Radovanovic, Milan, Yaroslav Vyklyuk, Milan Stevancevic, Milan Milenkovic, Dejana Jakovljevic, Marko Petrovic, Slavica Malinovic-Milicevic, et al. "Forest fires in Portugal - case study, 18 june 2017." Thermal Science 23, no. 1 (2019): 73–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/tsci180803251r.

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Forest fires that occurred in Portugal on June 18, 2017, caused several tens of human casualties. The cause of their emergence, as well as many others that occurred in western Europe at the same time remained unknown. Taking into account consequences, including loss of human lives and endangerment of ecosystem sustainability, discovering of the forest fires causes is the very significant question. The heliocentric hypothesis has indirectly been tested, according to which charged particles are a possible cause of forest fires. We must point out that it was not possible to verify whether in this specific case the particles by reaching the ground and burning the plant mass create the initial phase of the formation of the flame. Therefore, we have tried to determine whether during the critical period, i. e. from June 15-19 there is a certain statistical connection between certain parameters of the solar wind and meteorological elements. Based on the hourly values of the charged particles flow, a correlation analysis was performed with hourly values of individual meteorological elements including time lag at Monte Real station. The application of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System models has shown that there is a high degree of connection between the flow of protons and the analyzed meteorological elements in Portugal. However, further verification of this hypothesis requires further laboratory testing.
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Sukhodolov, Alexander, Polina Sorokina, and Alina Lebedeva. "Mathematical Model of Fight Against Forest Fires in Terms of Irkutsk Oblast: Computational Experiments in Terms of the Julia Language." Bulletin of Baikal State University 29, no. 3 (September 12, 2019): 349–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.17150/2500-2759.2019.29(3).349-358.

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Forest fires extremely undermine the environment, cause serious damage to the forests, wildlife resources and national economy of the country. The issues of fight against forests fires and their prevention are especially important for Eastern Siberia with its huge spaces, low population density and poor development of the road network on the taiga territories. Organizing and delivering largescale fire prevention activities entails enormous financial and material and technical resources Therefore, ecological-mathematical modeling of situations arising from countering forest fires becomes relevant. The purpose of investigations of such models is to develop a fire fighting strategy that would ensure an acceptable environmental level and, at the same time, be economically effective. This article pays attention to solving the problem of optimal control of forest fire fighting, the prototype of which is the well-known model by G.M. Parks. To analyze the model, the modern programming language Julia is used, which is designed to perform mathematical calculations and numerical investigations. It mostly designed for mathematical calculations and numerical analysis of various problems. Irkutsk Oblast has been chosen as a model territory of research.
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Mohamad Sharaf, Iman, and Ghada El-Sawah. "Optimization of an automated smoke control system in an industrial atrium." International Journal of Petrochemical Science & Engineering 4, no. 1 (February 28, 2019): 25–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.15406/ipcse.2019.04.00099.

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Pool fires are the most common hazard in many industrial applications. Therefore, automated fire control systems and occupational safety design codes and procedures are of major importance in industrial building systems design. Smoke is the main factor that causes deaths and casualties in fires. Thus, fire safety engineering (FSE) considers smoke management system as one of the most important factors. In this study, smoke generation during pool fire is numerically simulated to optimize the smoke management system. The smoke and temperature distributions inside a mechanically ventilated atrium are simulated using a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) transient model after initiating a diesel pool fire in the worst case scenario. Four numerical models are simulated and their results are compared to choose the model that optimizes smoke control. The models enable better approximations of the underlying physical phenomena in smoke transport for a single phase gas mixture. A velocity field approach is predicted using a turbulent standard k-ε model to study the domain with smoke plume. The ability to demonstrate and predict the flow field inside the atrium while the roof exhaust fans are operating is also investigated. The study aids in smoke management systems' design and helps to better understand of smoke plume behavior inside large spaces.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

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Choi, Joonho. "Concurrent fire dynamic models and thermomechanical analysis of steel and concrete structures." Diss., Atlanta, Ga. : Georgia Institute of Technology, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/26679.

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Ierardi, James A. "A computer model of fire spread from engine to passenger compartments in post-collision vehicles." Link to electronic version, 1999. http://www.wpi.edu/Pubs/ETD/Available/etd-052499-135914/unrestricted/thesis.pdf.

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Dell'Orfano, Michael E. "Fire Behavior and Fuel Modeling of Flammable Shrub Understories in Northeastern Pine-Oak Forests." Digital WPI, 2004. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1070.

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"This thesis evaluates the effectiveness of BEHAVE: Fire Behavior Prediction and Fuel Modeling System in predicting fire behavior in the Northeastern pine-oak forest. This fuel complex is composed primarily of a litter and huckleberry shrub understory with a pitch pine and oak overstory. Measurements of fuel bed physical characteristics, weather and fire behavior are taken from a series of prescribed burn studies in Cape Cod National Seashore in Massachusetts. Site-specific fuel models are constructed which provide the necessary inputs for fire predictions. Observed spread rates and flame lengths are over-predicted by BEHAVE for burns conducted during the winter (dormant season) and under-predicted for burns conducted during the summer (growing season). Attempts to improve winter predictions are successful when the litter moisture is adjusted in order to account for the live wintergreen which increases the overall moisture content of the surface fuels. A sensitivity study is performed where each input parameter is varied over a reasonable interval in order to view its impact on predictions. The model’s high sensitivity to fuel bed depth and 1-hr surface-area-to-volume ratio appear to be the cause for fire prediction deviations during the winter, while the high live fuel moisture contents appear to overwhelm and suppress fire behavior predictions during the summer. It is concluded to overwhelm and suppress fire behavior predictions during the summer. It is concluded that BEHAVE’s representation of fuel complexes as a homogeneous fuel bed with constant properties does not take into account the unique features of the litter and shrub components. An alternative, simple model of fire spread is developed which treats each component as a separate fuel bed. The model is based on a measurement of the heat release rate which can be determined directly through the principle of oxygen consumption calorimetry. Future work using small- and large- scale testing apparatus will help determine the ignition process of the live shrubs and the effect of parameters such as moisture content on the burning characteristics of the fuels. "
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Beller, Douglas K. "Alternate Computer Models of Fire Convection Phenomena for the Harvard Computer Fire Code." Digital WPI, 2000. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/892.

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"Alternate models for extended ceiling convection heat transfer and ceiling vent mass flow for use in the Harvard Computer fire Code are developed. These models differ from current subroutines in that they explicitly consider the ceiling jet resulting from the fire plume of a burning object. The Harvard Computer fire Code (CFC) was used to compare the alternate models against the models currently used in CFC at Worcester Polytechnic Institute and with other available data. The results indicate that convection heat transfer to the ceiling of the enclosure containing the fire may have been previously underestimated at times early in the fire. Also, the results of the ceiling vent model provide new insight into ceiling vent phenomena and how ceiling vents can be modeled given sufficient experimental data. this effort serves as a qualitative verification of the models as implemented; complete quantitative verification requires further experimentation. Recommendations are also included so that these alternate models may be enhanced further. "
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Ghosh, Gregory. "Lifesafety Analysis in the Building Firesafety Method." Digital WPI, 2004. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1106.

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"The purpose of this thesis is to demonstrate and enhance the technical basis of the procedure for evaluating lifesafety within the Building Firesafety Engineering Method (BFSEM). A framework for the analysis has been documented, but not extensively tested in a building situation. Hence, procedures to obtain the necessary input data and to evaluate that data needed to be developed. In addition, the general framework had to be tested rigorously enough to identify weaknesses. "
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Hardison, Tanya. "Applications of Remote Sensing and GIS to Modeling Fire for Vegetative Restoration in Northern Arizona." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2003. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4323/.

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An accurate fire model is a useful tool in predicting the behavior of a prescribed fire. Simulation of fire requires an extensive amount of data and can be accomplished best using GIS applications. This paper demonstrates integrative procedures of using of ArcGIS™, ERDAS Imagine™, GPS, and FARSITE© to predict prescribed fire behavior on the Kaibab-Paiute Reservation. ArcGIS was used to create a database incorporating all variables into a common spatial reference system and format for the FARSITE model. ArcGIS Spatial Analyst was then used to select optimal burn sites for simulation. Our predictions will be implemented in future interagency efforts towards vegetative restoration on the reservation.
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WadeChang and 張偉德. "Mathematical models of optimal ambulance redeployment for shipping mass casualties in the emergency medical services system." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/36585571481308966636.

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碩士
國立成功大學
工業與資訊管理學系
104
The aim of this study included developing mathematical models of optimal ambulance redeployment for shipping mass casualties in an emergency medical services system by using integer programming. Additionally, the objectives of the study involved minimizing the total waiting time for casualties. In the study, two ambulance redeployment problems, namely (1) Ambulance Dispatching Problem with the Initial Location provided, and (2) Ambulance Dispatching Problem with a Flexible initial Location, were investigated. It was assumed that the number of event points, hospitals, and patients were given for both problems. Although both problems required solving for optimal ambulance routings, the latter problem focused more on initial ambulance deployment. An integer programming model was formulated on a time space network for the first problem. However, the model was extremely time consuming. This was followed by developing a greedy heuristics based on a nearest first concept, in which the ambulance closest to a casualty was assigned to the casualty. In order to derive a fair waiting time, another heuristics that allowed each casualty to have a more equal waiting time was also employed. With respect to the second problem, certain properties of optimal redeployment were first derived for a hospital case, and then greedy heuristics were derived for other general cases. Unfortunately, a specific relationship between the optimal number of ambulances and the distance of the number of casualties to event points could not be derived from the results of the study.
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Beck, Judith A. "Decision support for Australian fire management." Master's thesis, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/155786.

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Mahmud, H. M. Iqbal. "Simulation of the suppression of fires using water mists." Thesis, 2016. https://vuir.vu.edu.au/31116/.

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As warships can carry weapons on board, the unlikely occurrence of fire is one of the most feared events on board. Until recently, halon 1301 (bromo-tri-fluoro methane, CF3Br) has been the primary fire-fighting agent for protecting the machinery spaces of ships. Halon 1301 is not only harmful to humans, but it also depletes the ozone layer. Water-mist fire suppression systems (WMFSS) have been considered as a potential candidate for the replacement of halon-based fire suppression systems by fire protection industries. WMFSS is already being used in commercial buildings, passenger and naval ships, etc. However, it is essential to examine the efficacy of water-mist droplets in suppressing fires. The efficacy of a water-mist system can be investigated in two ways: (i) experimental investigation; and (ii) numerical analysis. This study is a combination of an experimental study (water mist spray without fire) and two types of numerical studies using (a) semi-empirical equations based model developed in this study; and (b) a state of the art computational fluids dynamics (CFD) based fire model.
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Books on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

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Barr, Donald Roy. Estimation of expected casualties using aliveness adjustments. Monterey, Calif: Naval Postgraduate School, 1987.

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Brushlinskiĭ, N. N., and A. I︠A︡ Korolʹchenko. Modelirovanie pozharov i vzryvov. Moskva: Assot︠s︡iatsiia "Pozhnauka", 2000.

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McCaffrey, Bernard J. Naval fire fighting trainers: Effect of ventilation on fire environment (model calculations for 19F3 FFT). Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, 1985.

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Stroup, David W. The establishment of a catalog of compartment fire model algorithms and associated computer subroutines. Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, 1985.

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Morris, Glen A. A simple method for computing spotting distances from wind-driven surface fires. Ogden, Utah: Intermountain Research Station, 1987.

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Kisko, T. M. Network models of building evacuation: Development of software system. Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, Center for Fire Research ; [, 1985.

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Mitler, Henri E. Comparison of several compartment fire models: An interim report. Gaithersburg, MD: National Bureau of Standards, 1985.

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Komorovskiĭ, V. S. Modeli organizat︠s︡ii i upravlenii︠a︡ pri borʹbe s lesnymi pozharami: Monografii︠a︡. Moskva: Infra-M, 2012.

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Cooper, Leonard Y. Ceiling jet-driven wall flows in compartment fires. Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, 1987.

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Cooper, Leonard Y. Ceiling jet-driven wall flows in compartment fires. Gaithersburg, MD: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, National Bureau of Standards, 1987.

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Book chapters on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

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Huang, Ting-Yu, and Yuan-Shang Lin. "Investigation of Factors and Construction of Statistical Models on Predicting Life Casualties in Building Fires in New Taipei City." In The Proceedings of 11th Asia-Oceania Symposium on Fire Science and Technology, 359–77. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9139-3_27.

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"Mathematical Simulation of Anthropogenic Load on Forested Territories." In Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies, 272–94. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7250-4.ch016.

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Human activity causes forest fires near the municipalities and different transportation structures. It is suggested to define linear objects that caused human activity and the similarity of the human activity spread and heat conduction applicable for numerical simulation. The numerical parameter of the human activity is the virtual (possible) number of forest fires (VNF) near the linear object. One-dimensional and two-dimensional numerical models to evaluate the distribution of human activity from linear objects are presented. It is possible to mark out following linear objects: country roads, motorways, and railways. Dependence of the VNF for typical data from linear objects of human activity changed through the time and space are obtained. Conclusions are drawn about the patterns of human activity from linear objects. The prospects of further development are described for this direction to design software for forest fire danger prediction.
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Antonov, Ivan, Rositsa Velichkova, Svetlin Antonov, and Kamen Grozdanov. "Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of Development of the Fires in Confined Spaces." In Fire Safety and Management Awareness. IntechOpen, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.91274.

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The mathematical models of fire distribution in a confined space–in underground garages and in buildings—are described. Integral and computational fluid mechanics methods are used. The chapter presents the results of a fire simulation using the software Fluent. It uses Reynolds-type turbulence models of the Fire Dynamic Simulation or PyroSim graphical interface with a solution model describing a turbulence. For both cases, the pictures of the spread of fire and smoke over time in an atrium of an administrative building and a five-story building of the TUS were presented.
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Lloret, Francisco, and Josep Piñol. "Wildfires." In The Physical Geography of the Mediterranean. Oxford University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199268030.003.0033.

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Fire is currently recognized as one of the major natural hazards of the Mediterranean basin. In an average year the total burnt area in the whole basin is around 600,000 hectares, the product of approximately 50,000 fires. The estimated annual cost is around 775 million Euros (FAO 2001). Official data on casualties due to fires are often not available, but, for example, seventy-nine people have been killed directly by fire in Portugal since 1966 and fifty in Catalonia (northeast Spain) since 1970. Fire is commonly considered to be a key component of the dynamics of Mediterranean ecosystems (Chapters 7 and 23). Long dry periods, usually in summer, and vegetation assemblages that produce large amounts of standing branches and debris, are the main factors promoting the propagation of fires. These characteristics are common to other regions of the world with a similar climate and vegetation structure including California, central Chile, South Africa, and south-western Australia. Fire is a common occurrence and a significant natural hazard in all these regions. Although initially a natural phenomenon, during the course of the Holocene human activity has become an increasingly powerful driver of fires (Chapter 9). Prevention of wildfires is now one of the top priorities of the forestry and environmental agencies across the Mediterranean region because of the huge extent of the burned surface area, the high expenditure on both fire prevention and fire fighting, and the impacts in terms of both human life and property. The development of models to investigate the relative roles of extreme weather conditions and fire suppression policies in the generation of large fires is a key area of research (Piñol et al. 2007). The pattern of fire occurrence is not uniform across the Mediterranean basin and orders of magnitude differences appear. When standardized to the forested area of each country, the average burnt area exceeds 103 ha per 103 km2 per year in Greece, Israel, Italy, Algeria, Portugal, and Spain. This means that, on average, more than 1 per cent of the forested area is burnt in these countries each year.
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"Mathematical Modeling of Forest Fuel Ignition by the Heated Up to High Temperatures Particle." In Advances in Environmental Engineering and Green Technologies, 167–99. IGI Global, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-7250-4.ch012.

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This chapter provides information on the physical and mathematical models of forest fuel layer ignition by the metal or non-metal particle heated up to high temperatures. Mathematically, the forest fuel layer ignition is described by a system of equations of heat conduction and diffusion with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. Scenario modeling of forest fuel layer ignition was carried out in the temperature range characteristic to the occurrence of forest fires. A scenario of a catastrophic forest fire danger is considered when there is no moisture in the forest fuel layer.
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Bacciu, Valentina, Maria Mirto, Sandro Luigi Fiore, Costantino Sirca, Josè Maria Costa Saura, Sonia Scardigno, Valentina Scardigno, et al. "An operational platform for fire danger prevention and monitoring: insights from the OFIDIA2 project." In Advances in Forest Fire Research 2022, 87–92. Imprensa da Universidade de Coimbra, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.14195/978-989-26-2298-9_13.

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The project OFIDIA2 (Operational FIre Danger preventIon plAtform 2), funded by the Interreg Greece-Italy 2014-2020 Programme, proposed a pragmatic approach to improve the operational capacity of the stakeholders to detect and fight forest wildfires. A data analytics system was designed and implemented within the project to manage, transform, and extract knowledge from heterogenous data sources, through forecasting models such as weather, fire danger, and fire behaviour models. The high-resolution weather forecasting network previously developed in OFIDIA1 was enhanced by using a mesoscale configuration of the WRF-ARW model over the Central Mediterranean Sea. A nested domain over the Southern Italy at ~2km horizontal resolution allows getting high-resolution weather forecasts (2x2km) and processing data into fire danger models. Fires, fuel, topography and weather data were collected from several sources and used to run and calibrate fire models (FlamMap and Wildfire Analyst) in Apulia region (Italy). Based on the analyses of recurrent weather conditions leading to large fires, fire metrics’ maps for prevention and fire-fighting activities were produced. Finally, a Decision Support System (DSS) was also developed to provide support for 1) the selection of fire behaviour scenarios by means of mathematical models; and 2) the prevention of emergencies thanks to weather forecast information with fire danger indices at high resolutions.
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Conference papers on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

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Xie, Shuyi, Shaohua Dong, and Guangyu Zhang. "Identification of Key Factors of Fire Risk of Oil Depot Based on Fuzzy Clustering Algorithm." In ASME 2019 Pressure Vessels & Piping Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2019-93125.

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Abstract With the rapid development of the national economy, the demand for oil is increasing. In order to meet the increasing energy demand, China has established a number of oil depot in recent years, whose largest capacity reaching up to tens of millions of cubic meters. Due to the flammable and explosive nature of the stored medium, the risk of fire in the oil depot area has increased dramatically as the tank capacity of the storage tank area has increased. The intensification of the oil depot and the development of large-scale oil storage tanks have brought convenience to the national oil depot, but also brought many catastrophic consequences. In recent years, there have been many fires and explosions in the oil depot, causing major casualties and property losses, which seriously endangered the ecological environment and public safety. Based on the constructed oil depot fire risk index system, the fuzzy C-means algorithm (FCM) and fuzzy maximum support tree clustering algorithm is introduced. Through the two fuzzy clustering mathematical models, key factors in the established index system are identified. Firstly, the expert scoring method is used to evaluate the indicators in the oil depot fire risk index system, and the importance degree evaluation matrix of oil depot fire risk factors is constructed through the fuzzy analysis of expert comments. Then, the fuzzy C-means algorithm (FCM) and the fuzzy clustering tree algorithm are used to cluster the various risk indicators, and the key factors of the oil depot fire risk are identified. Through the comparative analysis and cross-validation of the results of the two fuzzy clustering methods, the accuracy of the recognition results is ensured. Finally, using an oil depot as a case study, it is found that passive fire prevention capability and emergency rescue capability are key factors that need to be paid attention to in the oil depot fire risk index. The fuzzy clustering algorithm used in this paper can digitize the subjective comments of experts, thus reducing the influence of human subjective factors. In addition, by using two fuzzy clustering algorithms to analyze and verify the key factors of the oil depot fire risk, the reliability of the clustering results is guaranteed. The identification of key factors can enable managers to predict high-risk factors in advance in the fire risk prevention and control process of the oil depot, so as to adopt corresponding preventive measures to minimize the fire risk in the oil depot, and ensure the safety of the operation of the oil depot.
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2

Kim, Hyeong-Jin, and David G. Lilley. "Basic Models in Fire Development." In ASME 1999 Design Engineering Technical Conferences. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc99/cie-9056.

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Abstract The ultimate goal of this study is to improve scientific understanding of fire behavior leading to flashover in structural fires. This document summarizes important information in five topic areas: burning rates, radiant ignition, fire spread rates, ventilation limit imposed by size of opening, and flashover criteria. These are the main components related to the scientific understanding of the fire growth and flashover problem involved in real-world structural fires. Within each topic area, there are four subsections dealing with background, theory, comments, and references. Main components of the study are to develop improved mathematical simulations so as to improve the accuracy of theoretical calculation and to develop and extend the range of knowledge and modeling capability so as to extend the range of available experimental data.
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Kim, Hyeong-Jin, and David G. Lilley. "Review of Basic Models in Fire Dynamics." In ASME 2000 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2000-1654.

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Abstract The ultimate goal of this study is to improve scientific understanding of fire behavior leading to flashover in structural fires. This document summarizes important information in five topic areas: burning rates, radiant ignition, fire spread rates, ventilation limit imposed by size of opening, and flashover criteria. These are the main components related to the scientific understanding of the fire growth and flashover problem involved in real-world structural fires. Within each topic area, there are four subsections dealing with background, theory, comments, and references. Main components of the study are to develop improved mathematical simulations so as to improve the accuracy of theoretical calculation and to develop and extend the range of knowledge and modeling capability so as to extend the range of available experimental data.
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4

Paik, Jeom Kee, Yeon Chul Ha, Bong Ju Kim, and Jung Kwan Seo. "Test Facilities for Safety Studies of Ships and Offshore Structures Associated With Extreme and Accidental Conditions." In ASME 2015 34th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2015-41123.

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Ships and offshore structures can face extreme and accidental events that can result in catastrophic consequences in association with casualties, property damages and pollution. Because the mechanism and its responses of structures in extreme and accidental events are highly nonlinear, it is essential to take advantage of experimental approaches as well as computational approaches in terms of identifying such nonlinear responses. Relevant test facilities are then required to meet the needs where full scale or at least large scale models should be dealt with. The objective of this article is to introduce test facilities recently built in the Korea Ship and Offshore Research Institute (KOSORI) at Pusan National University in Korea in terms of specifications and capabilities of various test facilities. Those facilities include test infrastructures in association with ultra-high subsea pressure, fires, explosions, structural failure and dropped object as well as high speed material test.
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Kim, Hyeong-Jin, and David G. Lilley. "Temperature and Smoke Prediction in Structural Fires." In ASME 2001 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2001/cie-21677.

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Abstract Temperature and smoke level predictions in several rooms of a structural fire are possible with a variety of available computer codes. The accuracy and applicability of the results is greatly enhanced though the comparison of the calculations with experimental data. Experimental work assists in understanding fire behavior in structural fires. Temperature measurements at different locations during a house fire provide necessary data for the development of mathematical models, which attempt to simulate the fire on a computer. In this paper, a small 46 square meter single-level house was the subject of a complete experimental burn, with temperature measurements and fire observations during the entire burn. The CFAST computer code (Consolidated Model of Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) can be used to calculate temperatures and smoke levels in the various rooms of the house during the burn. Five fire scenarios are considered in the simulation, with progressively increasing realism regarding the actual fire specification. It is seen that calculations with the most realistic fire simulation (permitting burning in all rooms during the course of the fire) are in very good agreement with the experimental data, with regard to rate of fire spread throughout the structure, and the accuracy of the calculations of flashover, temperatures and smoke levels in each of the rooms.
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Acton, Michael R., Geoff Hankinson, Blaine P. Ashworth, Mohsen Sanai, and James D. Colton. "A Full Scale Experimental Study of Fires Following the Rupture of Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines." In 2000 3rd International Pipeline Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/ipc2000-107.

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The gas industry has an excellent safety record in operating high pressure transmission pipelines. Nevertheless, it is important that pipeline operators have an understanding of the possible consequences of an accidental gas release, which may ignite, in order to help manage the risks involved. This paper describes two full scale experiments, conducted as part of a research programme into the consequences of pipeline failures, undertaken by an international collaboration of gas companies. The experiments involved the deliberate rupture of a 76km length of 914mm diameter natural gas pipeline operating at a pressure of 60 bar, with the released gas ignited immediately following the failure. Instrumentation was deployed to take detailed measurements, which included the weather conditions, the gas outflow, the size and shape of the resulting fire, and the thermal radiation levels. The results provide important data for the validation of mathematical models, used in developing risk assessment methodologies, and in establishing those standards and design codes for gas pipelines that are risk based.
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7

YAGLA, JON J., and GEORGE A. ANDERSON. "BARREL HEATING IN HYPERVELOCITY POWDER GUNS." In 32ND INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON BALLISTICS. Destech Publications, Inc., 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.12783/ballistics22/36093.

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When a gun fires, hot propellant grains and gas heat the barrel. The first phase of heating is the in–bore period (i.e., action time). During this period, the projectile travels down the barrel to the exit plane of the muzzle. The second phase of barrel heating is “blowdown.” When the projectile leaves, the hot high–velocity gas expands and accelerates, rushes out of the barrel, and sweeps forward over the projectile. The blowdown time is not a definite measurable quantity like the action time. The gas vents out of the barrel according to exponential decay formulas of gas dynamics. Mathematical models and results are provided for both phases of heating. For velocities over 1,000 m/s, radiation is the dominant mechanism. Conduction during blowdown is a large contributor.
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8

Kupciuniene, Kristina, and Robertas Alzbutas. "External Events Importance for Safety of the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant." In 16th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. ASMEDC, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone16-48230.

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Probabilistic risk analysis of external events impact on the safety important systems of Ignalina nuclear power plant (NPP) is performed. At first, the methodology was established for screening out external events, which impact on Ignalina NPP safety is not significant. In order to estimate probabilities of external events occurrences the statistical data were collected, mathematical models were constructed and probabilities of these events occurrences were determined. For risk estimation, the following external events were studied: forest fires, external floods, aircraft crash, seismic events, extreme winds, fall of frequency in electricity network and loss of an external electricity supply. The aircraft crash event was modeled and analyzed in more detail. The crash probability estimation model is improved considering uncertain data. The aircraft crash probability on the territory of the Ignalina NPP with the radius r is expressed by the derived analytical formula. This formula is used to calculate the aircraft crash probability applying the most recent statistical data. The aircraft crash dependencies upon the amount of flights and crashes in the different radius territories were analyzed. Relationship of non-flying zone around Ignalina NPP and aircraft crash frequency was investigated. As a part of the initial conditions and parameters of aircraft crash model are not well-known or have different values for various types of aircrafts, the sensitivity analysis was performed for the model. This analysis determines the parameters that have the greatest influence on the model results. Conclusions about the importance of the parameters and sensitivity of the results are obtained using a sensitivity measures of the model under analysis.
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9

Kim, Hyeong-Jin, and David G. Lilley. "Accuracy of the Three-Room Simulation of a Ten-Room Large House Fire." In ASME 2002 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2002. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/detc2002/cie-34451.

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Calculations (with a 10-room and a simpler 3-room simulation of the large house fire) of temperature and smoke levels in several rooms of a structural fire are possible with the CFAST computer code. The accuracy and applicability of the results is greatly enhanced though the comparison of the calculations with experimental data. Experimental work thereby assists in understanding fire behavior in structural fires. Temperature measurements at different locations during a house fire provide necessary data for the development of mathematical models, which attempt to simulate the fire on a computer. In this paper, a large 170 square meter single-level house was subject to a complete experimental burn, with temperature measurements and fire observations during the entire burn, and subsequent modeling via a detailed 10-room simulation and a simpler 3-room simulation. The CFAST (Consolidated Model of Fire Growth and Smoke Transport) computer code is used to calculate temperatures and smoke levels in the various rooms of the house during the burn (with 10 different rooms). Four fire scenarios are considered in the simulation, with increasing realism regarding the actual fire specification. A simpler calculation (with 3 different rooms) has also done to see if the similar results would be shown with the 10-room simulation. It was found that results for smoke temperature and smoke layer heights were very similar, leading to the conclusion that a 3-room simulation of a 10-room building gives adequate modeling capability of the real structural fire. Computation results give the expected trends (deduced from local point temperature measurements) of initial temperature surge and decay, peak and leveling off temperatures, especially with respect to the northwest bedroom with a closed door. The effect of whether a door of a room would have been open was investigated computationally, with results illustrating far more dangerous smoke temperature and smoke level in the room when its door is open.
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10

Ramos, Marilia A., Enrique L. Droguett, Marcelo R. Martins, and Henrique P. Souza. "Quantitative Risk Analysis and Comparison for Onshore and Offshore LNG Terminals: The Port of Suape - Brazil Case." In ASME 2011 30th International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering. ASMEDC, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/omae2011-50268.

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In recent decades, natural gas has been gaining importance in world energy scene and established itself as an important source of energy. One of the biggest obstacles to increase the usage of natural gas is its transportation, mostly done in its liquid form, LNG – Liquefied Natural Gas, and storage. It involves the liquefaction of natural gas, transport by ship, its storage and subsequent regasification, in order to get natural gas in its original form and send it to the final destination through natural gas pipeline system. Nowadays, most terminals for receiving, storing and regasificating LNG, as well as sending-out natural gas are built onshore. These terminals, however, are normally built close to populated areas, where consuming centers can be found, creating safety risks to the population nearby. Apart from possible damages caused by its cryogenic temperatures, LNG spills are associated with hazards such as pool fires and ignition of drifting vapor clouds. Alternatively to onshore terminals, there are currently several offshore terminals projects in the world and some are already running. Today, Brazil owns two FSRU (Floating Storage and Regasification Unit) type offshore terminals, one in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro and the other in Pece´m, Ceara´, both contracted to PETROBRAS. The identification of the operation risks sources of LNG terminals onshore and offshore and its quantification through mathematical models can identify the most suitable terminal type for a particular location. In order to identify and compare the risks suggested by onshore and offshore LNG terminals, we have taken the example of the Suape Port and its Industrial Complex, located in Pernambuco, Brazil, which is a promising location for the installation of a LNG terminal. The present work has focused on calculating the distance to the LNG vapor cloud with the lower flammability limits (LFL), as well as thermal radiation emitted by pool fire, in case of a LNG spill from an onshore and from an offshore terminal. The calculation was made for both day and night periods, and for three types of events: operational accident, non-operational accident and worst case event, corresponding to a hole size of 0,75m, 1,5m e 5m, respectively. Even though the accidents that happen at an onshore terminal generate smaller vulnerability distances, according to the results it would not be desirable for the Suape Port, due to the location high density of industries and people working. Therefore, an offshore terminal would be more desirable, since it presents less risk to the surrounding populations, as well as for workers in this location.
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Reports on the topic "Fires Casualties Mathematical models"

1

Levin, Sheldon G., and J. T. Klopcic. Mathematical Models for Prediction of Neuropsychiatric and Other Non-Battle Casualties in High Intensity Combat. Fort Belvoir, VA: Defense Technical Information Center, July 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.21236/ada171283.

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