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1
Kim Yen, Wun, Ratneswary Rasiah, and Jason James Turner. "An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of Fertility: International Evidence." Journal of International Business, Economics and Entrepreneurship 3, no. 1 (June 30, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/jibe.v3i1.14434.
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This study aims to analyse the socio and macroeconomic determinants of fertility in 108 countries across the globe. Focusing on the variables of inflation, income, education level and urbanization, this study employs the cross-sectional econometrics technique of Ordinary Least Squares to analyse the causal relationship between these variables and fertility. The empirical results reveal a significant and negative relationship between income and fertility in the overall model of the 108 countries, as well as in the models involving developing countries, and countries in the African, American and Asian regions. Education was found to also have a significant and negative relationship with fertility in the overall model and the developing countries. Urbanisation, on the other hand, was found to have a significant and positive relationship with fertility in the overall model, developing countries and in countries in the African and Asian regions. Inflation was the only predictor found to be not significant in all the models. As far as the least developed countries, developed countries and the countries in the European region were concerned, none of the independent variables were significant predictors of fertility. The study concludes with an examination of policy implications of the findings
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Barbieri, Laura. "Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility." Journal of Applied Statistics 40, no. 8 (August 2013): 1701–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02664763.2013.793660.
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Haque, Ismail, Dipendra Nath Das, and Priyank Pravin Patel. "Reading the geography of India’s district-level fertility differentials: a spatial econometric approach." Journal of Biosocial Science 51, no. 5 (August 8, 2019): 745–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0021932019000087.
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AbstractIndia has gradually progressed into fertility transition over the last few decades. However, the timing and pace of this transition has varied notably in terms of both its geography and the demographic groups most affected by it. While much literature exists on the relationships between fertility level and its influence on demographic, economic, socio-cultural and policy-related factors, the potential spatial variations in the effects of these factors on the fertility level remain unaddressed. Using the most recent district-level census data (of 2011) for India, this nationwide study has identified plausible spatial dependencies and heterogeneities in the relationships between the district-wise Total Fertility Rates (TFRs) and their respective demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors. After developing a geocoded database for 621 districts of India, spatial regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models were used to decipher location-based relationships between the district-level TFR and its driving forces. The results revealed that the relationships between the district-level TFR and the considered selected predictors (percentage of Muslims, urbanization, caste group, female mean age at marriage, female education, females in the labour force, net migration, sex ratio at birth and exposure to mass media) were not spatially invariant in terms of their respective strength, magnitude and direction, and furthermore, these relationships were conspicuously place- and context-specific. This study suggests that such locality-based variations and their complexities cannot be explained simply by a single narrative of either socioeconomic advancement or government policy interventions. It therefore contributes to the ongoing debate on fertility research in India by highlighting the spatial dependence and heterogeneity of the impacts made by demographic, socioeconomic and cultural factors on local fertility levels. From a methodological perspective, the study also discerns that the GWR local model performs better, in terms of both model performance and prediction accuracy, compared with the conventional global model estimates.
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Sakhbetdinova, Kamilya. "Determinants of fertility in Russian families." Moscow University Economics Bulletin 2020, no. 6 (December 30, 2020): 104–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.38050/01300105202066.
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Competent demographic policy implies an understanding by the state of the economic, social, and demographic processes taking place in society. In earlier Russian and foreign studies, the authors found a number of fertility factors, however, the direction of influence of such determinants could be opposite. Aware of the special influence of sociocultural attitudes and values of the population on the number of children in a family, the author made an attempt to identify the determinants of fertility based on an empirical study of the World Values Survey. Using statistical and econometric methods, models that reflect the determinants of fertility in modern Russia were constructed. This work revealed a positive effect on the birth rate of religiosity, traditional views and the importance of the family for the respondent. Inversely related to the number of children in a family such factors as the level of education of the population and the value of leisure.
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Nickayin, Samaneh Sadat, Francesco Chelli, Rosario Turco, Bogdana Nosova, Chara Vavoura, and Luca Salvati. "Economic Downturns, Urban Growth and Suburban Fertility in a Mediterranean Context." Economies 10, no. 10 (October 12, 2022): 252. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/economies10100252.
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Despite the wealth of micro–macro data on short-term demographic dynamics, the impact of metropolitan growth and economic downturns on local fertility is still under-investigated in advanced economies. Recent studies in low-fertility contexts have assumed suburban birth rates as being systematically higher than urban and rural rates. This assumption (hereafter, known as the ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) was grounded on stylized facts and spatial regularities that imply a significant role of both macro (contextual) and micro (behavioral) factors positively influencing fertility in suburban locations. To verify such a hypothesis from a macro (contextual) perspective, the present study compares the general fertility rate of urban, suburban, and rural settlements of the Athens’ metropolitan region (Greece) at various observation years between 1860 and 2020. Long-term Athens’ growth represented a sort of ‘quasi-experiment’ for Mediterranean Europe, linking sequential urban stages and distinctive waves of economic expansion and recession. Using multivariate exploratory analysis and global/local econometric models, a dominant ‘rural’ fertility regime was recorded for 1860 and 1884. A characteristic ‘urban’ fertility regime was, instead, found over a relatively long, intermediate period between 1956 and 1990. Higher fertility in suburban settlements (10 km away from downtown Athens, on average) was, finally, observed since 2000. Considering a sufficiently long-time interval, the existence of multiple fertility regimes along the distance gradient has demonstrated how fertility dynamics are intrinsically bonded with metropolitan growth, economic downturns, and social transformations in Mediterranean Europe.
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Coale, Ansley. "G. M. Farooq and G. B. Simmons (eels.). Fertility in Developing Countries. London: The MacMillan Press (for the International Labour Office). 1985. xXiii + 533 pp." Pakistan Development Review 26, no. 1 (March 1, 1987): 119–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v26i1pp.119-120.
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In 1972 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities initiated support for a programme of research within the International Labour Organization on population and employment. Determinants of fertility have been a major theme in this research programme, as is evident in an earlier Progress Report on the programme [3]. The book here reviewed is an attempt to distil some general conclusions from this research, and to present ideas and evidence not included in the 1982 publication. The first section of the book contains a summary of theories of fertility determination; a brief description of the findings of empirical research on fertility, and of the problems of empirical research on the economics of fertility; some comments on the relevance for policy of research on the economics of fertility; and some suggestions for more fruitful research strategies. The second part deals with selected methodological problems: the definition and measurement of fertility; econometric problems of analysing cross-sectional and time-series data; estimation and interpretation of aggregate data; specification and estimation of models fertility; and the uses of simulation techniques in studying the effects of economic policy on fertility. As this list of topics indicates, the emphasis in this section (and in most of the book) is on research on fertility by economists. The last chapter in the second section, however, describes anthropological approaches to the study of fertility. The final section contains six case studies on Kenya, Nigeria, rural India, rural Turkey, Yugoslavia, and a comparative study of Costa Rica and Mexico.
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Davia, María A., and Nuria Legazpe. "Decisiones laborales de las mujeres casadas o cohabitantes en España." Studies of Applied Economics 30, no. 3 (June 7, 2020): 1065. http://dx.doi.org/10.25115/eea.v30i3.3618.
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The aim of this paper is to analyse the determinants of employment decisions (entry and exit from employment) of married or cohabiting women in Spain. We use the Fertility, Family and Values Survey of 2006, conducted by the Sociological Research Centre in 2006. The econometric technique deployed consists in different discrete-time duration models using Meyer’s application (Meyer, 1990) to Prentice-Gloeckler model (1978) that enables control for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show, among other things, that highly educated women and women from more recent cohorts are more likely to (re-)enter the labour market after marriage. Mothers of small children are more likely to exit employment than non-mothers.
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Dhar, Soma. "Economic Development and Female Labor Force Participation in Bangladesh: A Test of the U-Shaped Hypothesis." Journal of South Asian Studies 8, no. 3 (December 23, 2020): 99–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.33687/jsas.008.03.3826.
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The study aims to explain the relationship between economic development measured by GDP per capita on PPP and female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) in Bangladesh. Using Time series data from (1991-2019), extracted from secondary data sources; the study develops three models to test the U-shape hypothesis. The study uses control variables such as Female Unemployment rate, Fertility rate, and Urbanization. The Ordinary Least Square Regression Analysis is used to run the regression by using Econometric Software STATA (version12.0). The regression result indicates that the Female unemployment rate has a positive impact on FLFPR. Fertility rate and Urbanization have a negative effect. There is a significant impact of the quadratic GDP per capita PPP on FLFPR. The overall results of this paper suggest that a U-shape does not exist in Bangladesh. The research investigates an upward pattern in the female labor force participation rate by measuring the relationship between economic growth and female labor force participation rate in Bangladesh.
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Kucher, Anatolii. "Soil fertility, financial support, and sustainable competitiveness: evidence from Ukraine." Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal 6, no. 2 (June 20, 2020): 5–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.51599/are.2020.06.02.01.
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Purpose. The purpose of this paper was to highlight the results of the study of the influence of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises.
Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, we used such methods: correlation analysis (to identify and assess the close relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness); econometric modeling (to develop a mathematical model of the dependence of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare); economic-statistical and monographic (for the assessment and analysis of the influence of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and financial support per hectare on the formation of sustainable competitiveness); abstract-and-logical (for generalization and analysis of the research results); graphical (for the visual representation of the revealed dependencies). The study was performed on a selected sample of agricultural enterprises of districts of Kharkiv, Volyn and Chernihiv region, which represent all the soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The time range of this research covers the years 2010–2016. The database of the 189 observations in Kharkiv region, 93 – in Volyn region and 88 – in Chernihiv region was as the empirical basis.
Results. This paper presents empirical evidence for the impact of the soil fertility and financial support on the formation of sustainable competitiveness of enterprises. The obtained results prove the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils, financial support per hectare, and the sustainable competitiveness of subjects, however, the level of impact of soil fertility differs significantly in different soil-climatic conditions. It is shown that soil fertility and financial support can sometimes act as substitutes, for example, in a zone of insufficient moisture or low soil fertility. Increasing the financial support for agricultural production per hectare may be a strategy to increase productivity when soils are less fertile.
Originality / scientific novelty. For the first time, one- and two-factor linear and quadratic econometric models were developed, which made it possible to carry out quantitative assessment of the impact of the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield in various soil-climatic zones of Ukraine. The provision on the formation of the subindex of competitiveness by the yield under the conditions of the economic law of diminishing returns, was further developed.
Practical value / implications. The main results of the study can be used for (i) estimation and forecasting of the level of competitiveness depending on the ecological-agrochemical assessment of soils and the financial support per hectare; (ii) determining the effect of measures to improve the soil fertility on the competitiveness; (iii) determining the impact of soil degradation on competitiveness of agribusiness entities; (iv) identification of reserves to improve competitiveness.
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Tikhomirov, N. P., and T. M. Tikhomirova. "ASSESSING AND MANAGING THE REPRODUCTION POTENTIAL OF RUSSIA." Federalism, no. 3 (September 16, 2019): 51–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2073-1051-2019-3-51-71.
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At present Russian Federation in a whole and most of its regions face the problem of justifying the social and economic policy, that ensures the shift from prolonged depopulation to the regime of expanded reproduction of the population. The proposed methodology for such a justification is based on the designing the econometric models, that describe the patterns of objective indicators of population’s natural movement intensity, depending on the main “material” factors, determining the characteristics of its demographic behavior (standard of living, health care expenditures, payments for children, etc.). As such indicators, it is proposed to use the marginal growth rate or its refined modifications, which are calculated only on the basis of sex-age-specific fertility and mortality rates and do not depend on changes in age structures. Such marginal indicators more reliably characterize the potential of self-reproduction of the population in comparison to the total and standardized fertility and mortality rates, commonly used in demography and corresponding to them population growth rates. The paper presents estimates of the marginal rates of natural movement of the Russian population in 1990—2017, which indicate, that the decline in the potential of demographic self-reproduction in the last decade of the 20th century in Russia was quite significant, and the rate of its recovery in the 21st century was not high enough, thus, as a consequence, by 2017 the country had not yet shifted to the regime of expanded reproduction, although in some of its regions such a regime had already been established in 2007—2012. The econometric model, presented in the work, reflecting the dependence of the marginal growth rate of Russian population on the standard of living and the expenditures on demographic policy measures, shows that the shift of the country as a whole to the regime of sustainable extended demographic self-reproduction is possible by 2025—2030, subject to a 2—3% annual increase in the levels of these factors.
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Melich-Iwanek, Krystyna. "ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE POPULATION IN POLAND – SELECTED PROBLEMS AND CONDITIONS." Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas Zarządzanie 22, no. 3 (September 30, 2021): 9–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.4216.
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The aim of the article is to analyze, from statistical and econometric perspectives, the dynamics of Poles’ economic activity, in particular, an attempt at a statistical measurement of the impact of select phenomena conditioning the labor market. Key considerations are preceded by a presentation the historical and current demographic situation in Poland. Problems of foreign migration and the aging of the Polish society were investigated. Moreover, impact of social policies on the labor market was analyzed, including the “Family 500+” program as well as regulations concerning retirement age. The study utilizes quantitative methods of time series analysis, including the time series models taking into account the occurrence of turning points. The results of research show, that: in the near future the Polish demographic situation will not improve, the lowering of retirement age is a threat to the labor market, the “500+” program not only did not influence a rise in fertility rate but lowered the rate of economic activity of women.
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Mukai, Shiro. "Combined Agronomic and Economic Modeling in Farmers’ Determinants of Soil Fertility Management Practices: Case Study from the Semi-Arid Ethiopian Rift Valley." Agriculture 13, no. 2 (January 23, 2023): 281. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13020281.
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Studies on smallholders’ determinants of soil fertility management practices have become increasingly important for boosting agricultural productivity, particularly in cereal-based farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa. In these parts of Africa, farmers preferentially apply organic and inorganic fertilizers to the fields close to their housing compounds (infields). In addition, they prefer to use more fertilizers to grow cash crops rather than food crops. Many researchers suggested that farmers use limited nutrient resources in their hot-spot fields, e.g., infields and/or cash-crop fields. Recent econometric case studies have suggested using a model that considers a complementarity or substitutability between organic and inorganic fertilizers use. This study employed bivariate probit models to analyze 524 plot data collected from the northern semi-arid Ethiopian Rift Valley. A K-means cluster analysis divided the sample data into two subdatasets, representing food-crop-based cropping system (FCCS) and cash-crop-based cropping system (CCCS). Based on narrative inquiry interviews and the cluster analysis, this study considered reflecting the structure of the local farming system in modeling: a data segmentation approach and dummy variable method. Bivariate and univariate probit analyses showed that, first, the farmers’ determinants differed between the FCCS and CCCS. Second, the correlation between organic and inorganic fertilizers use was independent. Farmers’ determinants were primarily governed by the biophysical features of the plots (commuting distance to the plot, plot size, type of the plot, etc.), which narrowed down the feasible soil fertility management options in the plot to one or two; farmers’ more specific decisions on soil fertility management practices depend on individual farmers’ socioeconomic endowments (farm holding, livestock ownership, etc.).
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Melich-Iwanek, Krystyna. "ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF THE POPULATION IN THE SILESIAN VOIVODSHIP IN THE BACKGROUND OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT." Zeszyty Naukowe Wyższej Szkoły Humanitas Zarządzanie 23, no. 1 (March 31, 2022): 51–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0015.8609.
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The aim of the article is to analyze, from statistical and econometric perspectives, the dynamics of economic activity of the population of the Silesian Voivodeship in particular, an attempt at a statistical measurement of the impact of select phenomena conditioning the labor market. Key considerations are preceded by a presentation the historical and current demographic situation in the voivodeship. Problems of foreign and inter-voivodeship migrations, the aging of population of the province were investigated. Moreover, impact of social policies on the labor market was analyzed, including the “Family 500+” program as well as regulations concerning retirement age. The study utilizes quantitative methods of time series analysis, including the time series models taking into account the occurrence of turning points. The results of research show, that in the near future, the demographic situation of the Silesian Voivodeship will not improve,, the lowering of retirement age is a threat to the labor market, the “500+” program not only did not influence a rise in fertility rate but lowered the rate of economic activity of women.
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Thi Lan Huong, Nguyen, Yao Shun Bo, and Shah Fahad. "Farmers’ perception, awareness and adaptation to climate change: evidence from northwest Vietnam." International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management 9, no. 4 (August 21, 2017): 555–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-02-2017-0032.
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Purpose This study aims to examine the extent to which farmers are aware of climate change and how they have modified their growing practices in response to perceived climate changes. Design/methodology/approach A logit model was used to explore farmers’ awareness and a binary logistic model was used to analyze their adaptive responses. Data from 335 farm households were collected from three provinces of Northwest Vietnam with different climate change vulnerability. Findings Farmers’ awareness of climate change was related significantly to household and farm characteristics. Farm experience, education level, location, tenancy status, soil fertility, access to credit, climate information, agricultural extension services, farmer groups, non-agriculture income, distance to market and house and climate change experience influence adaptation measure choices. Research limitations/implications These findings suggest that investment strategies must promote adaptation to climate change by supporting technological and institutional methods, such as education, markets, credit and information. Originality/value This study is the first study that uses econometric models to analyze farmers’ perception effect and adaptation to climate change aspect in Northwest Vietnam
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Adolwa, Ivan Solomon, Stefan Schwarze, Boaz Waswa, and Andreas Buerkert. "Understanding system innovation adoption: A comparative analysis of integrated soil fertility management uptake in Tamale (Ghana) and Kakamega (Kenya)." Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 34, no. 04 (October 2, 2017): 313–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1742170517000485.
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AbstractSustainable intensification of African farming systems has been high on the agenda of research and development programs for decades. System innovations such as integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) and conservation agriculture have been proposed to tackle the complex challenges farmers face. In this study, we assess how different factors at the plot, farm and institutional level can influence the adoption of ISFM. We employed a stratified sampling approach to randomly select 285 and 300 farmers in Tamale, northern Ghana and Kakamega County, western Kenya, respectively. These two locations were selected to understand the underlying reasons for their divergent adoption levels. Ordinal regression models were used to identify determinants of adoption. In Tamale, adoption rates of ISFM are much lower than in Kakamega. Only 3% of the farmers fully adopted the recommended practices compared with 36% in Kakamega. The low availability of improved seeds is a major reason for the lower uptake of the complete ISFM paradigm in Tamale. The econometric analysis revealed that plot level variables such as soil carbon, soil texture, slope and plot area had a significant effect on the number of adopted ISFM components at both locations. Moreover, family labor availability is also an important factor. Other farm and household characteristics, such as off-farm occupation, livestock ownership, and membership in associations, matter for Kakamega only. Key policy recommendations include promotion of locally available organic resources and improved access to improved seeds in Tamale.
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Bezverbny, Vadim A., and Sergey V. Pronichkin. "MODELING OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC AND LABOR POTENTIAL OF THE RYAZAN REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS." Scientific Review. Series 1. Economics and Law, no. 4 (2020): 29–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.26653/2076-4650-2020-4-03.
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The article is devoted to the assessment and forecasting of demographic indicators, gross regional product, employment, labor force and unemployment by industry in the Ryazan region until 2025-2050. The article analyzes the trends in the demographic development of the Ryazan region, including the dynamics of fertility, mortality and migration. The consequences of population aging and the peculiarities of changes in the age and sex structure of the region's population are also considered. To solve the problem of modeling and forecasting, economic and mathematical models have been developed that include the parameters of socio-economic development. The social component is based on a systematic approach to forecasting employment, depending on the anthropogenic load index, which takes into account life expectancy and standard of living, literacy of the population, crime rate, ecological state and other indicators of socio-economic development of the region. The economic component uses econometric analysis by types of economic activities in the Ryazan region, as well as time series analysis to predict employment in both the medium and short term. In terms of the labor market, the labor force is forecasted taking into account the socio-economic effect of hidden unemployment. In conclusion, forecasts are made about the dynamics of unemployment in the Ryazan region and the influence of demographic factors on the formation of the labor force.
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Liu, Hongbin, Zhanli Sun, Xiaojuan Luo, Xiuru Dong, and Mengyao Wu. "A Spatial-Temporal Analysis of the Effects of Households’ Land-use Behaviors on Soil Available Potassium in Cropland: A Case Study from Urban Peripheral Region in Northeast China." Land 9, no. 5 (May 20, 2020): 160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/land9050160.
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Available potassium (AVK) in the soil of cropland is one of the most important factors determining soil quality and agricultural productivity. Thus, it is crucial to understand the variation of AVK and its influencing factors for sustaining soil fertility and mitigating land degradation. Farm households are the ultimate land users, and their land-use behaviors inevitably play an important role in the variation of AVK. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the effects of households’ land-use behaviors on soil AVK from spatial and temporal perspectives. Taking an urban peripheral region in Northeast China as the study area, we firstly use geostatistics (Kriging interpolation) and GIS tools to map out the spatial AVK distributions in 1980, 2000, and 2010, based on soil sampling data points, and then assess the impacts of land-use behaviors on AVK using econometric models. The results show that, although the AVK content in the study area has a largely downward trend over the 30 years, there are distinct trends in different stages. The disparity of trends can be attributed to the changes in households’ land-use behaviors over time. The spatial variation of AVK is also substantial and intriguing: the closer to the urban area, the greater the decline of soil AVK content, while the farther away from the urban area, the greater the rise of soil AVK content. This spatial disparity can too be largely explained by the obvious differences in households’ land-use behaviors in various regions.
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Oladimeji, Tolulope E., Oyakhilomen Oyinbo, Abubakar A. Hassan, and Oseni Yusuf. "Understanding the Interdependence and Temporal Dynamics of Smallholders’ Adoption of Soil Conservation Practices: Evidence from Nigeria." Sustainability 12, no. 7 (March 31, 2020): 2736. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12072736.
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The adoption of soil conservation practices is widely recognized as essential in improving soil fertility and promoting climate-smart agriculture in general. Yet, smallholders’ adoption of soil conservation practices in Sub-Saharan Africa has not been adequately documented, especially in relation to the interdependence and temporal dynamics of adoption decisions. In this paper, we analyze the interdependence and temporal dynamics of smallholders’ adoption of soil conservation practices, such as animal manure, crop residue retention, intercropping, and crop rotation in northern Nigeria. We use data from two rounds of a farm-household panel survey among maize-based farming households and estimate econometric models, including pooled multivariate probit and random effects ordered probit. We found that there is a significant positive correlation between the soil conservation practices, suggesting that adoption decisions for these practices are interrelated and the practices are considered complements by the farmers. We found evidence of inter-temporal variability in the adoption of soil conservation practices, which suggests that some farmers do switch in and out of these practices and may likely explain the often-reported variability in maize yields. Also, we found that the farmers’ decisions to adopt soil conservation practices and the intensity of adoption are influenced by several factors, including farmer-, household-, farm-, institutional-, and biophysical-level factors. Yet, the factors that significantly influence the likelihood of adoption differ slightly from those that influence the intensity of adoption. Policy interventions to enhance the adoption intensity of conservation practices should strongly leverage important factors, such as contract farming, crop–livestock integration, and off-farm income diversification.
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Trusova, Alla Yu, Alla I. Ilyina, and Evgeniya N. Osipova-Barysheva. "Methodology of application of methods of multidimensional and dynamic analysis when studying living standards of the population." Vestnik of Samara University. Economics and Management 13, no. 2 (July 20, 2022): 182–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.18287/2542-0461-2022-13-2-182-204.
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The article presents fundamental approaches to the study of periods of development of socio-economic indicators and their mutual influence. The forms of influence of indicators on each other are investigated. The dynamic analysis of the standard of living of the population and the factors of social and economic spheres is completed with the tools of econometric modeling and canonical analysis. Birth rate, mortality, employment, unemployment, investments in fixed capital, GRP per capita, the account of resource production, the standard of living of the population and fixed assets according to the data of the Samara Region for the period 20062019, registered in the annual collections of state statistics bodies, are considered as indicators. The predicted values of the standard of living by various methods are calculated, confidence intervals for the studied indicators are constructed. By means of adaptive forecasting using the Brown model, forecast values are calculated and confidence intervals are constructed. Using the tools of canonical analysis, integral indicators are calculated and grouping by time factor is carried out. The spatial grouping of the time factor depending on the standard of living of the population and canonical integral factors is presented. According to the results of the analysis of autoregressive models, it was found that in terms of employment, unemployment, fertility, mortality, investment in fixed assets, GRP per capita, resource production and fixed assets, the impact of the indicator of the previous year is statistically significant, and in terms of the standard of living of the population statistically insignificant. In the second-order autoregression, it was found that all statistical indicators have an impact on the studied indicator, except for indicators of employment and the standard of living of the population. Thus, the forms of models of multiple linear regression, paired linear regression and autoregressive models allow us to assess the numerical impact of all indicators on the studied indicators, as well as their impact on the Standard of living of the population. Visualization of multidimensional data contributes to an in-depth analysis of indicators when grouping, for example, by the time factor.
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Gemeyida, Kusse Haile, Engida Gebre Yesho, and Agegnehu Workye Belaneh. "Production Efficiency of Sesame Producer Farm Households: The Case of Bench Maji Zone, Southwest Ethiopia." Acta Scientiarum Polonorum Administratio Locorum 20, no. 3 (October 4, 2021): 189–201. http://dx.doi.org/10.31648/aspal.6248.
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Motives: Agricultural sector in Ethiopia is characterized by its poor performance, despite the livelihoods of the large population of the country depends on agriculture. Sesame is an important cash crop and plays vital role in the livelihood of many people in Ethiopia. However a number of challenges hindered the development of sesame sector along with the productivity. Aim: This study attempted to analyze production efficiency of sesame producers in Bench Maji Zone of Southwest Ethiopia. The study used both primary and secondary data sources. Purposive sampling techniques were employed to draw 270 sesame producer farm households. Descriptive statistics and econometric models were used to analyze the data. Results: The estimated stochastic production frontier model indicated that input variables such as inorganic fertilizer, sesame seed, oxen power, labor and chemicals found to be important factors in increasing the level of sesame output in the study area. The result further revealed significant differences in production efficiency among sesame growing farmers in the study area. Applying the Cobb-Douglas functional form the average, technical, allocative and economic efficiencies found are 50.72%, 86.83% and 44.2% for sesame producers, respectively. Also among fourteen variables used in the analysis of determinants, experience in sesame farming, education level, farm income, total cultivated land, social responsibility, frequency of extension contact, participation in off/nonfarm activities, credit, proximity to market and soil fertility were found to be significant sources of technical, allocative and economic inefficiencies of sesame producer farmers. Strengthening education, extension service, credit access at affordable interest rate and accessibility of transport services and motivating farm household to participate different training as well as their experience sharing with other sesame producing farmers improve productivity of sesame production. Therefore, those important socioeconomic and institutional factors which are mentioned above must take into account to improve the productivity of sesame in the study area.
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Okwu, Andy Titus, Rowland Tochukwu Obiakor, Timothy Chidi Obiwuru, Margret N. Kabuoh, and Emeka Okoro Akpa. "Public family spending, labour productivity, income inequality and poverty gap in the group of seven countries." Review of innovation and competitiveness 6, no. 1 (November 24, 2020): 49–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.32728/ric.2020.61/3.
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Purpose. Comparable data on distribution of family income provide reference point for determining economic performance of any country, opportunity to assess effects of income inequality and poverty drivers that are either country- or region-specific. This study analysed the effectiveness of composite indices of public spending on family benefits, labour productivity, macroeconomic performance indicators and moderating factors in reducing income inequality and poverty gap in the Group of Seven (G7) countries from 1980 to 2019. Methodology. The study employed fixed effects Least Squares regression model in panel environment within the framework of empirical econometric methodologies. The composite indices comprised public spending on family benefits in cash and kind, unemployment allowance payments, tax on personal income, labour productivity, harmonised unemployment rate, consumer price index, real GDP growth rate, GDP per capita and per hour worked, fertility rate and trade. After graphical analysis of the data, order of integration was via unit root tests. Hausman test was carried out to choose between fixed and random effects models. Subsequently, parameters of the models were estimated and evaluated for significance at the 0.05 critical level. Findings. The results showed that percentage changes in income inequality and poverty gap indices differed for same percentage change in components of the composite indices. Some variable-specific percentage changes in income inequality and poverty gap were statistically significant, while others were not. However, the overall percentage changes was statistically significant. The paper concluded that while some specific effectiveness of the explanatory variables in reducing income inequality and poverty gap was not significant, their joint effectiveness significantly reduced poverty. Therefore, it is pertinent that family-oriented fiscal policy thrusts should be strengthened and sustained so as to continually reduce income inequality and, ultimately, narrow poverty gap in the countries. Limitations. The study considered the G7 countries for a period of 40 years. The limitations were that the variables considered to influence income inequality and poverty gap in the countries were both exhaustive. Also, the results were conditioned to the method used, and different methods can alternatively be used by other researchers and the results compared with this. Originality. The study is original research paper. It has neither been published in any other peer-reviewed journal not under consideration for publication by any other journal.
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MILLER, PAUL W. "ECONOMIC MODELS OF FERTILITY BEHAVIOUR IN AUSTRALIA*." Australian Economic Papers 27, no. 50 (June 1988): 65–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.1988.tb00807.x.
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Arroyo, Cristino R., and Junsen Zhang. "Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey." Journal of Population Economics 10, no. 1 (April 2, 1997): 23–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050030.
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Melkersson, Maria, and Dan-Olof Rooth. "Modeling female fertility using inflated count data models." Journal of Population Economics 13, no. 2 (July 6, 2000): 189–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050133.
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Mayer, Jochen, and Regina T. Riphahn. "Fertility assimilation of immigrants: Evidence from count data models." Journal of Population Economics 13, no. 2 (July 6, 2000): 241–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050136.
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Schoonbroodt, Alice, and Michèle Tertilt. "Property rights and efficiency in OLG models with endogenous fertility." Journal of Economic Theory 150 (March 2014): 551–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2013.09.016.
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Vogl, Tom S. "Intergenerational Associations and the Fertility Transition." Journal of the European Economic Association 18, no. 6 (March 17, 2020): 2972–3005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvaa006.
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Abstract Evolutionary theorists have long noted that intergenerational transmission in fertility may counteract aggregate fertility decline through a process of natural selection. I study this evolutionary process by estimating how intergenerational associations in fertility vary over the fertility transition and feed back into the level of average fertility. Microdata from 40 developing countries indicate that intergenerational persistence breaks down at the onset of the fertility transition but then strengthens as the transition progresses. These changes are attributable to a reversal of fertility differences by skill, as predicted by economic models of long-run demographic change. As fertility approaches the replacement level, rising intergenerational associations reweight the population to raise aggregate fertility rates, pushing back against aggregate fertility decline.
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Jones, Larry E., and Alice Schoonbroodt. "COMPLEMENTS VERSUS SUBSTITUTES AND TRENDS IN FERTILITY CHOICE IN DYNASTIC MODELS*." International Economic Review 51, no. 3 (August 4, 2010): 671–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2010.00597.x.
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Chatterjee, Shoumitro, and Tom Vogl. "Escaping Malthus: Economic Growth and Fertility Change in the Developing World." American Economic Review 108, no. 6 (June 1, 2018): 1440–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170748.
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Following mid-twentieth century predictions of Malthusian catastrophe, fertility in the developing world more than halved, while living standards more than doubled. We analyze how fertility change related to economic growth during this episode, using data on 2.3 million women from 255 household surveys. We find different responses to fluctuations and long-run growth, both heterogeneous over the life cycle. Fertility was procyclical but declined and delayed with long-run growth; fluctuations late (but not early) in the reproductive period affected lifetime fertility. The results are consistent with models of the escape from the Malthusian trap, extended with a life cycle and liquidity constraints. (JEL D15, I12, I15, J13, J16, O15, O47)
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Schäfer, Andreas, and Simone Valente. "HABIT FORMATION, DYNASTIC ALTRUISM, AND POPULATION DYNAMICS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, no. 3 (April 7, 2010): 365–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s136510051000009x.
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We study the general equilibrium properties of two growth models with overlapping generations, habit formation, and endogenous fertility. In the neoclassical model, habits modify the economy's growth rate and generate transitional dynamics in fertility; stationary income per capita is associated with either increasing or decreasing population and output, depending on the strength of habits. In the AK specification, growing population and increasing consumption per capita require that the habit coefficient lie within definite boundaries; outside the critical interval, positive growth is associated with either declining consumption due to overcrowding, or extinction paths with declining population. In both frameworks, habits reduce fertility: the trade-off between second-period consumption and spending for bequests prompts agents to decrease fertility in order to make parental altruism less costly. This mechanism suggests that status-dependent preferences may explain part of the decline in fertility rates observed in most developed economies.
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Rotering, Paul. "Intergenerational Transmission of Reproductive Behavior in Sweden, 1850-1889." Historical Life Course Studies 4 (November 14, 2017): 181–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9347.
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Previous studies have consistently observed intergenerational continuities in childbearing. This study uses individual-level parish records to examine the intergenerational transmission of fertility over the life course of women in Sweden during the fertility transition in the second half of the nineteenth century. Bivariate correlations, event history analysis and Poisson regression models are estimated for a large number of indicators of reproductive behavior. In line with the literature, the findings show evidence of intergenerational fertility correlations. The observed correlations are often small, but show that fertility transmission did occur during the demographic transition. The findings confirm our current understanding of intergenerational transmission and highlight the role of kin members in shaping reproductive outcomes.
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Mogstad, Magne, and Matthew Wiswall. "Testing the quantity-quality model of fertility: Estimation using unrestricted family size models." Quantitative Economics 7, no. 1 (March 2016): 157–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/qe322.
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Korn, Evelyn, and Matthias Wrede. "Working Mums and Informal Care Givers: The Anticipation Effect." B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy 14, no. 2 (July 16, 2013): 473–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/bejeap-2012-0023.
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Abstract Fertility and the provision of long-term care are connected by an aspect that has not received attention so far: both are time consuming activities that can be produced within the household or bought at the market and are, thus, connected through the intertemporal budget constraint of the household that accounts for time and money. This paper models that link and analyzes the effect of intervention in the long-term-care market on female labor-market related decisions. It shows that women’s fertility and their labor supply when young are affected by such policies. The overall effect can be decomposed into an opportunity-cost effect and a consumption-smoothing effect that each impact fertility as well as labor supply in opposite directions. Using survey data, the paper provides some evidence that in the member states of the European Union the consumption-smoothing effect is dominant.
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Berman, Eli, Laurence R. Iannaccone, and Giuseppe Ragusa. "FROM EMPTY PEWS TO EMPTY CRADLES: FERTILITY DECLINE AMONG EUROPEAN CATHOLICS." Journal of Demographic Economics 84, no. 2 (May 14, 2018): 149–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dem.2017.22.
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Abstract:Total fertility in the Catholic countries of Southern Europe has dropped to remarkably low rates (=1.4) despite continuing low rates female labor force participation and high historic fertility. We model three ways in whichreligionaffects the demand for children – through norms, market wages, and childrearing costs. We estimate these effects using new panel data on church attendance and clergy employment for 13 European countries from 1960 to 2000, spanning the Second Vatican Council (1962–65). Using nuns per capita as a proxy for service provision, we estimate fertility effects on the order of 300 to 400 children per nun. Moreover, nuns outperform priests as a predictor of fertility, suggesting that changes in childrearing costs dominate changes in theology and norms. Reduced church attendance also predicts fertility decline, but only for Catholics, not for Protestants. Service provision and attendance complement each other, a finding consistent with club models of religion.
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Elgin, Ceyhun. "A THEORY OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WITH ENDOGENOUS FERTILITY." Macroeconomic Dynamics 16, no. 5 (June 2, 2011): 686–705. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100510000842.
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In this paper I build a unified model of economic growth to account for the time-series evolution of output, fertility, and population in the industrialization of an economy. Specifically, I merge the unified growth models of Galor and Weil [American Economic Review 90 (2000), 806–828] and Hansen and Prescott [American Economic Review 92 (2002), 1205–1217] to capture the importance of human capital formation, fertility decline, and the transition from agriculture to industry in transition from stagnation to growth. Moreover, I also incorporate young adult mortality into the model. Initially, the aggregate human capital and return to education are low and the mortality rate is high; therefore parents invest in quantity of children. Once sufficient human capital is accumulated and mortality rates are reduced, thanks to increasing life expectancy, with the activation of the modern human capital–intensive sector, parents start to invest in the quality of their children. The simulation of the model economy improves upon the quantitative performance of the existing literature and successfully captures the evolution of fertility, population, and GDP in the British economy between 1750 and 2000.
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Nakagaki, Yoko. "Fertility, female labor participation and income in East Asia." International Journal of Development Issues 17, no. 1 (April 3, 2018): 69–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijdi-06-2017-0106.
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PurposeThis study aims to apply two recently discovered relationships that describe fertility recovery in developed countries to East Asia: the U-shaped relationship between fertility and FLP (female labor participation) and the inverse-J-shaped relationship between fertility and income.Design/methodology/approachIt uses a panel data set of 176 countries including 13 East Asian countries from 1990 to 2014. Pooled ordinary least squares, fixed-effects and random-effects models are tested.FindingsThe main findings are the following points concerning East Asia: The U-shape and the inverse-J-shape are confirmed, suggesting that fertility recovery could be realized if both FLP and income are high enough and increasing; in the region, the U-shape is peculiar. Lower-income countries’ data move from the upper-right to the bottom, whereas higher-income countries’ data move from the upper-left to the bottom; no country in the region has reached the stage where both FLP and income are high enough.Originality/valueThis is the first paper on East Asia to show the U-shape and the inverse-J-shape concerning fertility recovery and the peculiarity of the U-shape in East Asia. It explains the background of low fertility using the relationship between fertility, FLP and income.
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Carlos Córdoba, Juan, and Marla Ripoll. "The Elasticity of Intergenerational Substitution, Parental Altruism, and Fertility Choice." Review of Economic Studies 86, no. 5 (December 21, 2018): 1935–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdy071.
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Abstract Dynastic models common in macroeconomics use a single parameter to control the willingness of individuals to substitute consumption both intertemporally, or across periods, and intergenerationally, or across parents and their children. This article defines the concept of elasticity of intergenerational substitution (EGS), and extends a standard dynastic model in order to disentangle the EGS from the EIS, or elasticity of intertemporal substitution. A calibrated version of the model lends strong support to the notion that the EGS is significantly larger than one. In contrast, estimates of the EIS suggests that it is at most one. What disciplines the identification is the need to match empirically plausible fertility rates for the U.S. We illustrate the potential role of the EGS in macroeconomics.
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Jones, Charles I. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population." American Economic Review 112, no. 11 (November 1, 2022): 3489–527. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201605.
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In many models, economic growth is driven by people discovering new ideas. These models typically assume either a constant or growing population. However, in high income countries today, fertility is already below its replacement rate: women are having fewer than two children on average. It is a distinct possibility that global population will decline rather than stabilize in the long run. In standard models, this has profound implications: rather than continued exponential growth, living standards stagnate for a population that vanishes. Moreover, even the optimal allocation can get trapped in this outcome if there are delays in implementing optimal policy. (JEL I12, J11, J13, O41)
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Grawe, Nathan D., and Casey B. Mulligan. "Economic Interpretations of Intergenerational Correlations." Journal of Economic Perspectives 16, no. 3 (August 1, 2002): 45–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/089533002760278703.
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Since accurate prediction ultimately determines the usefulness of theory, our paper gives the reader a taste of some predictions derived from economic theory and some empirical successes and failures. We provide only a taste, because there are a great many economic models relevant to intergenerational correlations— such as models of educational attainment, neighborhood effects in schooling, family formation and fertility choice, occupational choice and discrimination—and quite a variety of predictions that might be derived from these models. However, a simple model of investment and intergenerational decision making can be interpreted as a conceptual aggregation of many more detailed economic models. We present such a model and from it derive one class of predictions that has received substantial attention in the empirical literature—the role of endowments and credit markets in determining intergenerational correlations.
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Willführ, Kai P., and Charlotte Störmer. "Social Strata Differentials in Reproductive Behavior among Agricultural Families in the Krummhörn Region (East Frisia, 1720-1874)." Historical Life Course Studies 2 (December 3, 2015): 58–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9359.
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In this paper, we investigate how the reproductive behavior of families in the historical Krummhörn region was affected by their social status and by short-term fluctuations in their socioeconomic conditions. Poisson and Cox regression models are used to analyze the age at first reproduction, fertility, the sex ratio of the offspring, sex-specific infant/child survival, and the number of children. In addition, we investigate how fluctuations in crop prices affected infant and child mortality and fertility using Cox proportional regression models. We also include information about the seasonal climate that may have had an effect on crop prices, as well as on infant mortality via other pathways. We find that the economic upper class produced more infants and had more children who survived to adulthood than the lower social strata. While the upper class did not have lower infant and child mortality than the lower class, they had more surviving children because of their shorter birth intervals and lower female age at marriage. Crop prices did not affect mortality or fertility before 1820. From 1820 onwards, high crop prices were associated with increased child (but not infant) mortality and with extended inter-birth intervals. We believe this period-sensitive response to changes in the crop price was the result of a social transition that took place during our study period, in which relations between the classes went from being based on communal “table fellowships” (Tischgemeinschaft) to being based on capitalist employer/employee arrangements.
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Sheikh, Qurra-tul-ain Ali, Mahpara Sadaqat, and Muhammad Meraj. "Reckoning females’ education as a determinant of fertility control in Pakistan." International Journal of Social Economics 44, no. 3 (March 6, 2017): 414–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-01-2015-0007.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to obtain empirical evidence on the impacts of socio-economic and demographic factors on the fertility decisions taken by a common family in developing countries like Pakistan. Also, this study contravenes the conventional orthodoxy of childbirth decisions of a family by enlarging the canvas and conjectures the fundamental nexus amongst female’s education, fertility and contraceptive use. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on micro-level data, obtained from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (2012-2013) which is the third survey carried out in Pakistan. Demographic and socio-economic profiles of 13,558 ever-married women, aged 15-49 years, were randomly selected from Gilgit Baltistan and the four provinces of Pakistan. Three dependent variables are used in empirical analysis i.e. current use of contraceptives, total fertility and cumulative fertility. In order to estimate the probability of contraceptive use maximum likelihood, Probit technique is employed with ordinary least squares on reduced form specifications of total fertility and cumulative fertility models. Findings The empirical results proved the hypotheses that educated females practice more family planning through modern contraceptives which leads to a decrease in total fertility rates. Some significant links among females’ education, contraceptive use and fertility define the quantity – quality trade-off and opportunity cost of time. Evidently, female education provides maturity and awareness of family size which is necessary to take crucial economic decisions. Research limitations/implications The empirical evidence suggests that maximum efforts should be made toward women’s education. The current standard of education in Pakistan is not enough to overcome the long-standing problem of excessive child birth. This could be done with the help of public – private partnership as the measures taken by the government alone are insufficient. The government should initiate some adequate measures such as education and awareness about contraceptive usage at the secondary school level that could be a vivacious step to support fertility reduction. Practical implications The framework used in this study provides a broader intra-household income–expenditure approach. With a smaller family size, the household’s income would be shared among fewer individuals. It is highly probable that parents would be more attentive if they need to look after a few children. That is the best way to progress their children with limited resources. Social implications From the socioeconomic perspectives, educated parents plan the ideal family size which allows them to spend more on their children’s upbringing. Originality/value This study captures the magnitude of fertility decisions with the relevance of the wife’s education because the present practice in Pakistan does not allow higher education for married women. This is why this study could be used as a benchmark for further study in the same area.
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Caudill, Steven B., and Franklin G. Mixon. "Modeling household fertility decisions: Estimation and testing of censored regression models for count data." Empirical Economics 20, no. 2 (June 1995): 183–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01205434.
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Keane, Michael P. "Labor Supply and Taxes: A Survey." Journal of Economic Literature 49, no. 4 (December 1, 2011): 961–1075. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.49.4.961.
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I survey the male and female labor supply literatures, focusing on implications for effects of wages and taxes. For males, I describe and contrast results from three basic types of model: static models (especially those that account for nonlinear taxes), life-cycle models with savings, and life-cycle models with both savings and human capital. For women, more important distinctions are whether models include fixed costs of work, and whether they treat demographics like fertility and marriage (and human capital) as exogenous or endogenous. The literature is characterized by considerable controversy over the responsiveness of labor supply to changes in wages and taxes. At least for males, it is fair to say that most economists believe labor supply elasticities are small. But a sizable minority of studies that I examine obtain large values. Hence, there is no clear consensus on this point. In fact, a simple average of Hicks elasticities across all the studies I examine is 0.31. Several simulation studies have shown that such a value is large enough to generate large efficiency costs of income taxation. For males, I conclude that two factors drive many of the differences in results across studies. One factor is use of direct versus ratio wage measures, with studies that use the former tending to find larger elasticities. Another factor is the failure of most studies to account for human capital returns to work experience. I argue that this may lead to downward bias in elasticity estimates. In a model that includes human capital, I show how even modest elasticities—as conventionally measured—can be consistent with large efficiency costs of taxation. For women, in contrast, it is fair to say that most studies find large labor supply elasticities, especially on the participation margin. In particular, I find that estimates of “long-run” labor supply elasticities—by which I mean estimates that allow for dynamic effects of wages on fertility, marriage, education and work experience—are generally quite large. (JEL D91, J13, J16, J22, J31, H24)
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Nozaki, Yuko. "The effects of higher education on childrearing fertility behavior in Japan." International Journal of Social Economics 44, no. 5 (May 8, 2017): 653–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijse-12-2014-0246.
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Purpose Cost-benefit theory cannot explain the inverse relationship between education and fertility behavior among developed countries. The purpose of this paper is to examine psychological factors in fertility decisions, focusing on the number of children and determinants involved in the decision to have three or more children. Design/methodology/approach Two empirical models were employed utilizing data from the Japanese General Social Survey of 2005 and 2006. An ordered logit model was used to examine how educational background impacts the number of children people choose to have. A logit model focused on psychological factors was used to investigate the effect of the burden of childcare on the decision to have more children. Findings The probability of a third birth declines as the number of years of education increases for women, but not for men. Women whose mothers were housewives tended to have fewer children, whereas women who live in families and are homeowners were likely to have more children. For women, the most influential factor in the decision to have a child was awareness of childrearing costs. Men from higher-class, higher-income families tended to have more children. Practical implications The analysis indicates that maternal leave or systemic re-employment support can impact a woman’s decision to have a child. Social implications The inverse relationship between women’s fertility behavior and education can be partially explained by the awareness among educated women of the duties and burdens of childrearing. Originality/value This study contributes to practical information concerning the role of psychological factors in fertility decisions.
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Vandenbroucke, Guillaume. "Fertility and Wars: The Case of World War I in France." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 6, no. 2 (April 1, 2014): 108–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.6.2.108.
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During World War I, the birth rate in France fell by 50 percent. Why? I build a model of fertility choices where the war implies a positive probability that a wife remains alone, a partially-compensated loss of a husband's income, and a temporary decline in productivity followed by faster growth. I calibrate the model's key parameters using pre-war data. I find that it accounts for 91 percent of the decline of the birth rate. The main determinant of this result is the loss of expected income associated with the risk that a wife remains alone. (JEL D74, J13, J24, N33, N34, N44)
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Todd, Petra E., and Kenneth I. Wolpin. "Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of Child Schooling and Fertility." American Economic Review 96, no. 5 (November 1, 2006): 1384–417. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.96.5.1384.
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This paper uses data from a randomized social experiment in Mexico to estimate and validate a dynamic behavioral model of parental decisions about fertility and child schooling, to evaluate the effects of the PROGRESA school subsidy program, and to perform a variety of counterfactual experiments of policy alternatives. Our method of validation estimates the model without using post-program data and then compares the model's predictions about program impacts to the experimental impact estimates. The results show that the model's predicted program impacts track the experimental results. Our analysis of counterfactual policies reveals an alternative subsidy schedule that would induce a greater impact on average school attainment at similar cost to the existing program.
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Greenwood, Jeremy, Nezih Guner, and Guillaume Vandenbroucke. "Family Economics Writ Large." Journal of Economic Literature 55, no. 4 (December 1, 2017): 1346–434. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jel.20161287.
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Powerful currents have reshaped the structure of families over the last century. There has been (1) a dramatic drop in fertility and greater parental investment in children; (2) a rise in married female labor-force participation; (3) a significant decline in marriage; (4) a higher degree of positive assortative mating; (5) more children living with a single mother; and (6) shifts in social norms governing premarital sex and married women’s roles in the workplace. Macroeconomic models explaining these aggregate trends are surveyed. The relentless flow of technological progress and its role in shaping family life are stressed. (JEL D13, J12, J13, J16, J22, O33, Z13)
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Lambert, Philippe, and Vincent Bremhorst. "Inclusion of time‐varying covariates in cure survival models with an application in fertility studies." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 183, no. 1 (August 25, 2019): 333–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12501.
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Reher, David, and Glenn Sandström. "Dimensions of Rational Decision-Making during the Demographic Transition; Aranjuez (Spain) Revisited." Historical Life Course Studies 2 (March 2, 2015): 20–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.51964/hlcs9356.
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A set of linked reproductive histories taken from the Spanish town of Aranjuez during the demographic transition is used to address key issues regarding reproductive change and reproductive choice. This paper builds on the existing literature and especially on the findings first shown in Reher & Sanz-Gimeno (2007) and in Van Poppel et al. (2012) where the links between childhood survival and reproductive decision-making were specified. This paper goes beyond the original ones in two important ways: (a) the sex composition of the surviving sibset is included in the analysis and (b) behavior is modeled by means of event history analysis. In these models, controls for the survival status of the previous child are introduced so as to distinguish between biological factors related to the cessation of breastfeeding and both short term (child replacement) and more long-term reproductive strategies. The results offer convincing proof that couples were continually regulating their fertility in order to achieve reproductive goals both in terms of net fertility and of the sex composition of the resulting sibset. Here results show that both sexes were desired by parents but that lack of surviving males had greater influence on fertility behavior. As expected, controls for the survival status of the previous-born child were important though they did not diminish appreciably the overall effect of the number of surviving offspring. This article offers strong proof for the existence of active decision-making during the demographic transition and applies a method to model these behaviors over the full reproductive history of the couple.
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Chih-Chun, Kung. "A dynamic framework of sustainable development in agriculture and bioenergy." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 64, No. 10 (October 24, 2018): 445–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/281/2017-agricecon.
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The use of fossil fuels raises serious environmental concerns and causes major adverse effects such as the ocean level rise and the increased occurrence of hurricanes. To alleviate such problems, a global movement towards the generation of renewable energy is considered to be an effective way to help reducing the global greenhouse gas emissions and to sustain social development. Bioenergy is one attractive renewable energy source in Taiwan because a substantial amount of cropland has been released after the participation in the World Trade Organization (WTO). This study proposes two dynamic agricultural sector models to analyse how changes in the land fertility affect agricultural activities and bioenergy development. The analytical result indicates that economic incentives such as the direct subsidy and tax credit can be used to maintain a desired fertility level. In addition, the objectives of bioenergy development must be defined in advance because changes in discount rates and planning horizons have considerable influences on the effectiveness of policies.