Academic literature on the topic 'Fertility – Econometric models'

Defence date: 10 June 2022<br>Examining Board: Prof. Thomas Crossley (EUI, Supervisor); Prof. Alessandro Tarozzi (EUI, Co-Supervisor); Prof. Nadia Campaniello (University of Torino and Collegio Carlo Alberto); Prof. Emilia Del Bono (ISER, University of Essex)<br>This thesis is composed of three independent essays in applied microeconomics. The first contributes to the field of labor and health economics and analyzes the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio. The second chapter speaks to health and development economics literature, evaluating the impact of agricultural price spikes on farmers’ nutrition, considering the case study of quinoa in Peru. The topic of the final chapter lies within the fields of gender and political economics and discusses the effect of gender representation within local governments on expenditure in social services. Even though the three chapters seem separate, all of them share my interest in gender and health economics, as well as causal estimation. In Chapter 1, I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. This is the first paper to causally investigate the effect of local economic conditions on abortion choice. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. A one standard deviation (sd) increase in unemployment induces a 0.9 sd decrease in the fertility rate, a 0.27 sd increase in the abortion rate, and a 0.35 sd increase in the abortion ratio. In percentage terms, these changes mean that a 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate brings about a 1.7% decrease in the general fertility rate, a 1.4% increase in the abortion rate, and a 1.8% increase in the abortion ratio. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35-49 age group. In Chapter 2, I consider the impact of food price changes on farmers’ particular nutrition, as part of a discussion of the effect of preference shifts in the global North on welfare in the global South. Previous research has yielded contrasting results, while this question is increasingly relevant. The case of quinoa provides an ideal event study, where quinoa prices steeply increased from 2008 onwards, led by increasing international demand. I study the effect of this price shock on the nutrition of Peruvian households in a difference in differences framework. Results point to a limited effect on nutritional outcomes: in the short- term, neither caloric intake nor diet quality significantly increases in quinoa-farming households and districts. Chapter 3 investigates the effect of executive female representation on the provision of different social services, in the context of Italy. While Italy is a high-income country, many families still rely on women to take care of children, the elderly, and family members in need of assistance. We exploit a 2014 reform that mandated 40% gender quotas in the executive committees of municipalities with more than 3000 inhabitants. To account for confounding policies introduced at the same cutoff, we employ a difference-in-discontinuities empirical strategy. We find that while the policy was effective in increasing female representation, it did not have an impact on any category of social services expenditures.<br>1 Not the right time for children: unemployment, fertility, and abortion 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Institutional framework 1.3 Data and descriptive statistics 1.3.1 Data and construction of the sample 1.3.2 Dependent variables 1.3.3 Descriptive statistics 1.4 Empirical strategy 1.5 Results 1.5.1 Age heterogeneity 1.6 Robustness checks 1.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 1.A Additional results 1.A.1 Age heterogeneity - response to the aggregate unemployment rate 1.A.2 Geographic heterogeneity 1.A.3 Robustness checks -- Appendix 1.B Bartik instrument 1.B.1 Industry sectors 1.B.2 First stage relationship 1.B.3 Alternative Bartik instruments -- Appendix 1.C Descriptive analysis of the recessio 1.C.1 The recession in Italy . 1.C.2 North and South -- Appendix 1.D Data appendix 2 Do food price shocks affect farmers’ nutrition? A study on rising quinoa prices in Peru 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Quinoa: history, characteristics, production 2.3 Data and sample selection 2.4 Empirical strategy and sample selection 2.4.1 Pre-treatment characteristics 2.4.2 Parallel trends 2.5 Results 2.6 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 2.A Descriptives 2.A.1 Summary statistics 2.A.2 Sample selection - balance of characteristics 2.A.3 Quinoa - production and consumption -- Appendix 2.B Parallel trends -- Appendix 2.C Other results -- Appendix 2.D Nutrition estimation 2.D.1 Estimation of food and nutrient consumption 2.D.2 Estimation of diet quality 2.D.3 Diet index and caloric intake -- Appendix 2.E Institutional initiatives 3 Executive Gender Quotas and Social Services: Evidence from Italy 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Institutions and Data 3.2.1 Institutional Framework 3.2.2 Data Sources and Sample Selection 3.2.3 Descriptive Statistics 3.3 Conceptual Framework 3.4 Empirical Strategy 3.4.1 Confounding Policies and Treatments’ Definition 3.4.2 Potential Outcomes, Assumptions, and Estimator 3.4.3 Estimation 3.5 Results 3.5.1 Share and Number of Women in Municipal Executive 3.5.2 Effect on Social Spending 3.5.3 Internal Validity 3.6 Robustness 3.7 Conclusion -- References -- Appendix 3.A Empirical Strategy: Diff-in-disc in Our Setting 3.A.1 Local Parallel Trends, Expenditure Subgroups 3.A.2 Results on Total Accrued Expenses Appendix 3.B Pre-existing policies and potential confounders 3.B.1 Changes in Council and Executive Size 3.B.2 Joint Provision of Childcare