Journal articles on the topic 'Extreme floods in Bangladesh'
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Webster, Peter J., and Jun Jian. "Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 369, no. 1956 (December 13, 2011): 4768–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0160.
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The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change.
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Wahiduzzaman, Md. "Major Floods and Tropical Cyclones over Bangladesh: Clustering from ENSO Timescales." Atmosphere 12, no. 6 (May 28, 2021): 692. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060692.
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The present study analyzed major floods and tropical cyclones (TCs) over Bangladesh on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) timescales. The geographical location, low and almost flat topography have introduced Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries of the world. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the extreme hazard events like floods and cyclones which are impacted by ENSO. ENSO is mainly a tropical event, but its impact is global. El Niño (La Niña) represents the warm (cold) phase of the ENSO cycle. Rainfall and cyclonic disturbances data have been used for the period of 70 years (1948–2017) and compared with the corresponding observations of the Southern Oscillation Index. Result shows that major flood events occurred during the monsoon period, and most of them are during the La Niña condition, consistent with the historical archives of flood events in Bangladesh. Synoptic conditions of these events are well matched during La Niña condition. On the other hand, the major TC cases are in the period of either pre-monsoon or post-monsoon season. The pre-monsoon cases are under neutral (developing La Niña) or El Niño and the post-monsoon cases are under La Niña, consistent with climatology studies that La Niña is favorable to have more intense TCs over the Bay of Bengal.
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Younus, Md Aboul Fazal. "Crop adaptation processes to extreme floods in Bangladesh: a case study." Environmental Hazards 14, no. 1 (December 2014): 36–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2014.986041.
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Hassani-Mahmooei, Behrooz, and Brett W. Parris. "Climate change and internal migration patterns in Bangladesh: an agent-based model." Environment and Development Economics 17, no. 6 (July 27, 2012): 763–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x12000290.
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AbstractBangladesh is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change impacts such as extreme weather events, due to its low-lying topography, high population density and widespread poverty. In this paper, we report on the development and results of an agent-based model of the migration dynamics that may arise in Bangladesh as a result of climate change. The main modules are each calibrated with data on relevant indicators, such as the incidences of extreme poverty, socioeconomic vulnerability, demography, and historical drought, cyclone and flood patterns. The results suggest likely changes in population densities across Bangladesh due to migration from the drought-prone western districts and areas vulnerable to cyclones and floods in the south, towards northern and eastern districts. The model predicts between 3 and 10 million internal migrants over the next 40 years, depending on the severity of the hazards. Some associated policy considerations are also discussed.
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Haq, Shah Md Atiqul. "Underlying causes and the impacts of disaster events (floods) on fertility decision in rural Bangladesh." Environmental & Socio-economic Studies 6, no. 3 (September 1, 2018): 24–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/environ-2018-0020.
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AbstractThe study attempts to uncover how people living in vulnerable areas address the relationship between the impacts of extreme weather events (floods) and fertility preference. The study selected a village, Sharat Pur from Sunamganj District, which is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of flooding. The study gathered information from 158 respondents by using a semi-structured questionnaire and in-depth interviews. With the small sample size the study used descriptive statistics and qualitative analysis. Findings show that there is still a preference for more sons to recover the damage caused from the impacts of floods. However, people think having a large family is a burden. They emphasize controlling family size through family planning programs and do not take into account the risk of children dying affecting their desire to have additional children. Therefore they consider having more children especially sons as a gift from God and the occurrence of flood events as the wish of God. The intention of the study is not to generalize findings but to comprehend the underlying mechanism between disaster events and fertility behavior. The study collected information from a very small sample size. Future studies might consider a large sample size and explore more deeply the mechanism between the different disaster events and fertility decisions by using a comparative analysis between regions vulnerable to different extreme weather events and not vulnerable to extreme weather events within Bangladesh, and comparing Bangladesh with other South Asian countries.
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Philip, Sjoukje, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, et al. "Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 3 (March 13, 2019): 1409–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019.
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Abstract. In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. This paper presents, for the first time, an attribution of this precipitation-induced flooding to anthropogenic climate change from a combined meteorological and hydrological perspective. Experiments were conducted with three observational datasets and two climate models to estimate changes in the extreme 10-day precipitation event frequency over the Brahmaputra basin up to the present and, additionally, an outlook to 2 ∘C warming since pre-industrial times. The precipitation fields were then used as meteorological input for four different hydrological models to estimate the corresponding changes in river discharge, allowing for comparison between approaches and for the robustness of the attribution results to be assessed. In all three observational precipitation datasets the climate change trends for extreme precipitation similar to that observed in August 2017 are not significant, however in two out of three series, the sign of this insignificant trend is positive. One climate model ensemble shows a significant positive influence of anthropogenic climate change, whereas the other large ensemble model simulates a cancellation between the increase due to greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a decrease due to sulfate aerosols. Considering discharge rather than precipitation, the hydrological models show that attribution of the change in discharge towards higher values is somewhat less uncertain than in precipitation, but the 95 % confidence intervals still encompass no change in risk. Extending the analysis to the future, all models project an increase in probability of extreme events at 2 ∘C global heating since pre-industrial times, becoming more than 1.7 times more likely for high 10-day precipitation and being more likely by a factor of about 1.5 for discharge. Our best estimate on the trend in flooding events similar to the Brahmaputra event of August 2017 is derived by synthesizing the observational and model results: we find the change in risk to be greater than 1 and of a similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach. This study shows that, for precipitation-induced flooding events, investigating changes in precipitation is useful, either as an alternative when hydrological models are not available or as an additional measure to confirm qualitative conclusions. Besides this, it highlights the importance of using multiple models in attribution studies, particularly where the climate change signal is not strong relative to natural variability or is confounded by other factors such as aerosols.
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Alam, Md Ashraful, Craig Farnham, and Kazuo Emura. "Bayesian inference for extreme value flood frequency analysis in Bangladesh using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo techniques." MATEC Web of Conferences 276 (2019): 04006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/matecconf/201927604006.
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In Bangladesh, major floods are frequent due to its unique geographic location. About one-fourth to one-third of the country is inundated by overflowing rivers during the monsoon season almost every year. Calculating the risk level of river discharge is important for making plans to protect the ecosystem and increasing crop and fish production. In recent years, several Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been proposed in extreme value analysis (EVA) for assessing the flood risk in a certain location. The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method was employed to obtain the approximations to the posterior marginal distribution of the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model by using annual maximum discharges in two major river basins in Bangladesh. The discharge records of the two largest branches of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river system in Bangladesh for the past 42 years were analysed. To estimate flood risk, a return level with 95% confidence intervals (CI) has also been calculated. Results show that, the shape parameter of each station was greater than zero, which shows that heavy-tailed Frechet cases. One station, Bahadurabad, at Brahmaputra river basin estimated 141,387 m3s-1 with a 95% CI range of [112,636, 170,138] for 100-year return level and the 1000-year return level was 195,018 m3s-1 with a 95% CI of [122493, 267544]. The other station, Hardinge Bridge, at Ganges basin estimated 124,134 m3 s-1 with a 95% CI of [108,726, 139,543] for 100-year return level and the 1000-year return level was 170,537 m3s-1 with a 95% CI of [133,784, 207,289]. As Bangladesh is a flood prone country, the approach of Bayesian with HMC in EVA can help policy-makers to plan initiatives that could result in preventing damage to both lives and assets.
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Das, Partho, and Rezaur Rahman. "Management of Unanticipated Extreme Flood." International Journal of Disaster Response and Emergency Management 1, no. 1 (January 2018): 22–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijdrem.2018010102.
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South Asian countries (Nepal, India, and Bangladesh) experienced extreme flooding in August 2017 which is one of the deadliest in the recent few decades. Being the downstream country of this Himalayan region Bangladesh experienced immense flooding both in its flood prone and less flood prone areas. Northwest Bangladesh district Dinajpur is known for its high topography where flooding is not a common phenomenon. Due to this reason flood control and flood management practices by concerned agencies are very rare in this region. Such negligence in river and floodplain management turned this region a vulnerable one due to flood. The unexpected August 2017 flood in Dinajpur bears an example that this region is no longer flood free. This study aims to study the insights of this August 2017 flood event bi investigating causes, flood time and after flood recovery, existing management practices and damage information etc. Based on those primary and secondary assessment, future directions for flood management in this region has been proposed.
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Younus, Md Aboul Fazal, and Nick Harvey. "Economic consequences of failed autonomous adaptation to extreme floods: A case study from Bangladesh." Local Economy: The Journal of the Local Economy Policy Unit 29, no. 1-2 (December 18, 2013): 22–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0269094213515175.
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Ahmed, Farhana, Berry Gersonius, William Veerbeek, M. Shah Alam Khan, and Philippus Wester. "The role of extreme events in reaching adaptation tipping points: a case study of flood risk management in Dhaka, Bangladesh." Journal of Water and Climate Change 6, no. 4 (November 15, 2014): 729–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.102.
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Adaptation tipping points (ATPs) refer to the situation where a policy or management strategy is no longer sufficient, and adjustments or alternative policies/strategies have to be considered. In developed countries, the main focus of research has been on characterising the occurrence of ATPs in the face of slow variables like climate change. In developing countries, the system characteristics that lead to ATPs are more uncertain and typically comprise a combination of drivers. It is well recognised that policies and management strategies have often shifted in the wake of extreme events like floods. By focusing on flood risk management (FRM), this paper explores the role of sudden or extreme events and other drivers that trigger ATPs. It analyses the historical flooding pattern of Dhaka and policies relevant to FRM, and determines the tipping points for policy-making. A timeline has been established between the flood events, co-drivers, policy interventions and institutional reforms over the last 50 years. ATPs in a developing country context have been found to result from hydrological factors and uncontrolled urban growth as well as foreign intervention, non-implementation or untimely implementation of planned measures and fund constraints.
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Sarker, Mehraz Hossain, and K. M. Sujauddin. "Bangladesh’s Flooding: Coping Strategies of Flood Affected People of Nageshwari Upazila." American International Journal of Social Science Research 5, no. 3 (September 5, 2020): 36–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.46281/aijssr.v5i3.749.
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Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Southeast Asia, especially in Bangladesh. Extreme flood inundates more than half of the developing country’s landmass causing immense suffering to human life, damages properties, and economy. Furthermore, flood protection and management have been emphasized in terms of the sustainable development approach against climate impacts. As a result, Bangladesh has developed distinct indigenous practices to protect themselves from floods. The study aimed to identify the coping mechanisms and indigenous knowledge and the barriers to using these mechanisms. The study was conducted in two unions named Ratanpur and Nunkhawa of Nageshwari Upazila which is an Upazila of Kurigram District of Bangladesh. The study was based on. A mixed-method was used for the study. The survey questionnaire, focus group discussion (FGD) and key informants’ interviews (KII) were used as the tools for collecting data. Most of the respondents were farmers who had very minimal income level. Even though respondents used the shelter center during the flood incident, selling assents, letting children work, multiple works, extra labor were the fundamental strategies to overcome financial damage. The most common challenges faced by the victims to overcome the situation were the financial scarcity and recovering wasted crops. Filing to recover the vulnerability made some of the respondents migrate to another city or place. Proper money lending and credit system at reasonable or without interest rate, Instant food, and pure water supply can facilitate their mechanism.
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ALAMGIR, Md, Jun FURUYA, Shintaro KOBAYASHI, Mostafiz BINTE, and Md SALAM. "Farmers’ Net Income Distribution and Regional Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Empirical Study of Bangladesh." Climate 6, no. 3 (July 23, 2018): 65. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli6030065.
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Widespread poverty is the most serious threat and social problem that Bangladesh faces. Regional vulnerability to climate change threatens to escalate the magnitude of poverty. It is essential that poverty projections be estimated while bearing in mind the effects of climate change. The main purpose of this paper is to perform an agrarian sub-national regional analysis of climate change vulnerability in Bangladesh under various climate change scenarios and evaluate its potential impact on poverty. This study is relevant to socio-economic research on climate change vulnerability and agriculture risk management and has the potential to contribute new insights to the complex interactions between household income and climate change risks to agricultural communities in Bangladesh and South Asia. This study uses analysis of variance, cluster analysis, decomposition of variance and log-normal distribution to estimate the parameters of income variability that can be used to ascertain vulnerability levels and help us to understand the poverty levels that climate change could potentially generate. It is found that the levels and sources of income vary greatly among regions of Bangladesh. The variance decomposition of income showed that agricultural income in Mymensingh and Rangpur is the main cause of the total income difference among all sources of income. Moreover, a large variance in agricultural income among regions is induced by the gross income from rice production. Additionally, even in the long run the gradual, constant reduction of rice yield due to climate change in Bangladesh is not a severe problem for farmers. However, extreme events such as floods, flash floods, droughts, sea level rise and greenhouse gas emissions, based on Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), could increase the poverty rates in Mymensingh, Rajshahi, Barisal and Khulna—regions that would be greatly affected by unexpected yield losses due to extreme climatic events. Therefore, research into and development of adaptation measures to climate change in regions where farmers are largely dependent on agricultural income are important.
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Biswas, Jatish C., M. Maniruzzaman, M. M. Haque, M. B. Hossain, M. M. Rahman, U. A. Naher, M. H. Ali, and W. Kabir. "Extreme Climate Events and Fish Production in Bangladesh." Environment and Natural Resources Research 9, no. 1 (December 17, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/enrr.v9n1p1.
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Natural hazards frequently batter Bangladesh and cause damages to fisheries sector of the country. The main objective of the present investigation was to evaluate the effects of storm/tidal surge, waterlogging, cyclone, flood, drought and erosion on spatial distribution of damages and economic loss in fisheries of Bangladesh. Data were collected from existing literatures followed by scoring and attribute-wise maps were prepared using IDRISI3.2. The highest economic loss (US$ 17.65 million) in fishery sector was observed in Southern part and the least in hilly regions. The damages caused by natural hazards followed the order of storm/tidal surge > waterlogging > cyclone > flood > drought > erosion. About 21% areas of South and South-east Bangladesh were affected by high to very high storm/tidal surge. Very severe waterlogging problems were observed in 6.96% areas of the country. Moderate to high damages because of cyclone were found in about 11% areas in South and South-east Bangladesh. Moderate to high flooding problems were mostly prevalent in Central and North-east part of the country covering 15-19 per cent areas. Drought and erosion are less damaging to fishery sector compared to other studied natural hazards. Although exposure index to natural hazards is high, relative index to national economy because of damages to fisheries sector are low. Adaptive measures in coastal areas as a long-term strategy would be participatory construction of hard structures and reclamation/conservation of wetlands throughout the country including improved warning system could be undertaken for minimizing damages in fisheries sector of Bangladesh.
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Karim, Rabiul, and A. K. M. Shawkatul Islam. "BLUE ECONOMY AND SDG: A CRITICAL STUDY ON BANGLADESH." INDIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCIAL ISSUES 3, no. 1 (2022): 63–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.47509/ijefi.2022.v03i01.05.
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The blue economy improves livelihoods through sustainable use of marine resources and technological inputs, thereby promoting economic growth. Coastal and marine resources of economic importance are the main components of Bangladesh’s blue economy. These resources are divided into biological resources, nonbiological resources, renewable resources, and commercial and trade resources. The extreme events of climate change include warming trends, cyclones, sea level rise, drought, erosion, tides, salt water intrusion, floods, changes in rainfall trends, and ocean acidification. These extreme events will cause coral hiccups, species migration, loss of biodiversity, changes in species lifestyles, changes in the marine food chain, and ultimately affect the national economy. Therefore, establishing the adaptability of marine ecosystems to climate change is the primary requirement for maximizing benefits from the ocean. This background document provides a strategic framework for the implementation of the climate-resilient blue economy in Bangladesh. The framework is divided into four steps (i.e. problem identification, attention to areas that are important for climate change adaptation to the development of the blue economy, and activities to achieve goals and goal realization). Special attention needs to be paid to energy efficiency, marine and coastal biodiversity, ecosystem-based adaptation, building environmental resilience in coastal areas, restoring ecosystems, building economic resilience, and formulating development policies to adapt to the blue economy of climate change. Mangrove planting, oyster reef construction, mussel beds, sea-grass beds, marsh beds and coral reef protection, the use of renewable energy, special interventions in fisheries and island development, crop insurance, floating agriculture and salt tolerance, ecotourism development, marine protection Zones and declarations, ecologically critical areas, marine spatial planning, policy formulation, institutional integration, and continuous monitoring of the ocean are some examples of possible interventions needed for the development of a climate-resilient blue economy in Bangladesh.
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Mayen, MS, John V., Erik Wood, MS, and Tim Frazier, PhD. "Practical flood risk reduction strategies in South Sudan." Journal of Emergency Management 20, no. 8 (July 25, 2022): 123–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.5055/jem.0669.
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More extreme weather patterns caused by climate change are leading to more intense and frequent flooding in some of the world’s most vulnerable locations. The Republic of South Sudan faces obstacles mitigating rivers and urban floods caused by heavy rainfall in many of its regions. Through a focused review of the related literature, this study will first analyze the effectiveness and failures of the South Sudanese government’s attempts to mitigate flood risks, save lives, and prevent property damage. Study data are derived from various sources including peer-reviewed research, government and nongovernment documents, and the news media. Next, using similar qualitative review methods, a parallel case study from Bangladesh will be used to glean comparative findings and help formulate flood risk reduction recommendations for South Sudan. Findings include that government efforts are highly reactive and lack adequate resources to address flood mitigation. Analysis also indicates that locally driven structural and nonstructural disaster risk reduction efforts are critical to reducing vulnerability to this ongoing and intensifying threat. The study implications and recommendations advance the existing literature on this topic and are relevant to any global region displaying vulnerability opposite the complex threat of repeated intense flooding.
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Khan, Md Ataur Rahman. "Sustainable Coastal Zone Management: Need for a Holistic Approach for Bangladesh." Journal of Management and Sustainability 10, no. 2 (November 5, 2020): 112. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jms.v10n2p112.
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Coastal Zone is the most vulnerable area which is often attacked by cyclones, storm surges, floods, erosion and affected by climate change impacts like prolonged drought, salinity intrusion & greater temperature extremes. These realities are true both for the developed nations and a developing country like Bangladesh. This review study aims to explore the coastal management approaches in the UK & EU and the prevailing coastal management scenarios of Bangladesh. Based on the existing coastal management situations of Bangladesh, this study suggests that Bangladesh needs a holistic coastal management mechanism that should be supported by legislation, run by administrative and institutional frameworks, staffed by multidisciplinary experienced professionals under a Coastal Zone Management Authority (CZMA) for sustainable coastal zone management.
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Mamun, Abdullah Al, Susmita Roy, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam, G. M. Monirul Alam, Edris Alam, Subodh Chandra Pal, Md Abdus Sattar, and Javed Mallick. "Smallholder Farmers’ Perceived Climate-Related Risk, Impact, and Their Choices of Sustainable Adaptation Strategies." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (October 28, 2021): 11922. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132111922.
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Bangladesh is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries on the globe. The country is frequently affected by numerous climatic events including floods, droughts, cyclones, etc., which damages the farm household’s livelihood and socio-economic condition. Therefore, this work intends to appraise the smallholder farmers’ perceived climate-related risk, impact, and the factors that influence their choices of adaptation strategies to cope with the adverse impact of the climatic extreme events in northern Bangladesh. Survey data were collected from 300 respondents from two drought-prone districts of northern Bangladesh in January–February 2020. The climate-related risk perception index (CRRPI) was constructed to assess the farmers’ perceived risk. The multinominal logit (MNL) model was employed to explore the factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation strategies. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change risk were found to be consistent with meteorological data in the research area. Results of the CRRPI revealed that flood, drought, riverbank erosion, and heat waves were the critical risks perceived by the farmers. Farmers used a variety of adaptation measures to deal with these climatic threats, including agricultural diversification, changes in fertilizer and insecticides, and crop and seed changes. The MNL model results showed that the factors that influenced a farmer’s choices of adaptation strategies were age, education level, family members, income level, year of farming experience, and the farmer’s information on climate change. This study also demonstrated that water scarcity in the dry period and the frequency of crop diseases were the major limiting factors experienced by the farmers whilst undertaking adaptation strategies. Thus, awareness and capacity building through training and support to adopt the adaptation strategies are essential to enhance the resilience of the farmers.
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Rahman, A., and G. Björklund. "Workshop 4 (synthesis): securing food production under climate variability - exploring the options." Water Science and Technology 49, no. 7 (April 1, 2004): 147–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2004.0440.
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Climate variabilities may result in different types of dry spells, droughts or flood situations, having harmful effects on agricultural productivity and food security. Long-term trends in climate variabilities and climate extremes may be a consequence of an on-going climate change and would thus result in a more permanent change in the pre-conditions for food production. The presentations and discussion during the workshop concentrated on some different measures to be taken in addressing these kind of situations and in particularly on the adverse effects of dry spells, droughts and to some extent also floods. The different areas presented were examples from Bangladesh, the Indus river and delta region, examples from India (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh), Israel, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan.
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Kafle, Hemu, Soni Khaitu, Dipak Gyawali, Dibas Shrestha, Devesh Koirala, Md Kamaruzzaman, Vimal Khawas, Anjum Rasheed, Shinichi Sobue, and Yasushi Yamaguchi. "Historical drought and its trend in South Asia: Spatial and temporal analysis 2000-2020." APN Science Bulletin 12, no. 1 (December 26, 2022): 190–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.30852/sb.2022.2022.
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Every year, South Asian countries suffer from declining agricultural outputs due to climate extremes such as floods and droughts. Recurrent droughts have depressed rural economies and enhanced widespread hunger and human migration to South Asian cities (Miyan, 2015). Due to climatic changes, the region is projected to experience rising temperatures and more frequent extreme weather events in the long term (Trenberth et al., 2014). Accurate predictions of drought, its impact, and early detection facilities are not present in most South Asian countries due to a lack of sufficient hydro-meteorological datasets, poor access to satellite products, and shortages of well-trained staff. This study seeks to address these deficiencies scientifically by analysing historical drought conditions on a regional scale using open-access satellite products. The Drought Severity Index (DSI) has been employed to assess meteorological droughts from 2000 to 2020 and to prepare drought severity maps for the South Asian region. Results from DSI were further compared with the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) in Nepal and Bangladesh. The results identified pre-monsoon months as the driest period in South Asian countries experiencing severe to moderate drought.
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Kisinger, Chakma, and Kenichi Matsui. "Responding to Climate-Induced Displacement in Bangladesh: A Governance Perspective." Sustainability 13, no. 14 (July 12, 2021): 7788. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13147788.
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Population displacement by extreme weather events have long plagued Bangladesh, a low-lying disaster-prone river delta. The country experiences yearly displacement of approximately one million people and losses of about 1% of its gross domestic product due to cyclones, floods, and riverbank erosion. This study examines how the Bangladesh government has managed climate-induced displacement with a particular focus on socioeconomic development policies. We analyzed the country’s 1984 Land Reform Ordinance, the 2009 climate change strategy and action plan, the 1997 agricultural Khasland settlement policy, perspective plan for 2010–2021, poverty reduction strategy paper, and five-year plans to understand governance changes for displaced communities. We found that, overall, the central government implemented four main strategies. In the first strategy, Bangladesh resettled displaced people in cluster villages on public lands. Then, it provided life skills training (e.g., leadership, disaster preparedness, income generation) to rehabilitate the residents. The third strategy was to align resettlement efforts with local-level climate change adaptation and poverty reduction activities. Here, the central government and its seventeen departments collaborated with local councils to support resettled households under the social safety program. The fourth strategy was to diversify financial resources by obtaining more fund from donors and establishing its own financial mechanism. However, we also found that the decision-making and implementation process remained top-down without need assessment and community participation. This paper intends to offer insights on how similar challenged countries and regions may respond to climate displacement in the future.
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Islam, M., Nynke Hofstra, and Ekaterina Sokolova. "Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River." Geosciences 8, no. 8 (July 24, 2018): 271. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8080271.
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Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management.
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Hanif, Uzma, Shabib Haider Syed, Rafique Ahmad, and Kauser Abdullah Malik. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on the Agricultural Sector of Punjab." Pakistan Development Review 49, no. 4II (December 1, 2010): 771–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v49i4iipp.771-798.
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As back as the Industrial Revolution, anthropogenic activities namely, power generation from fossil fuels and deforestation activities have been continuously increasing the atmospheric concentration of GHGs beyond their natural limits resulting in an enhanced greenhouse effect, vis-à-vis, an increase in global temperature. The rise in temperature could be coupled with changes in rainfall pattern, rise in sea level, and frequency and severity of extreme events namely, cyclones and droughts etc. The sum of all these changes is referred to as climate change. Climate change affects economic development in many ways, especially the agrarian economies have always depended on vagaries of nature and climate. Change in temperature, precipitation averages and extreme climate events can alter yield, income, health, sociology and physical safety. Climate change is a global phenomenon and no country is immune to it. The disappearing of the Himalayan glaciers at a fast pace would increase the probability of extreme water flows, rendering it uncontrolled will bring heavy floods, loss of life, livestock, crops and infrastructural facilities in Pakistan, India, Nepal and Bangladesh. Climate change will affect all sectors of the economy not alone agricultural sector the most as well as health, forests, energy, coastal area, biodiversity and ecology all over the globe. In this connection, it will be pertinent to give the most recent events which have taken place across Asia.
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Haider, Jamal M., Haque M. Aminul, Hossain Md Jahid, and Haque Anisul. "Impact of Human Intervention and Sea Level Rise on Water-Logging Scenarios inside Polders-24 And 25 of Bangladesh." Journal of Engineering Science 12, no. 3 (January 10, 2022): 73–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jes.v12i3.57481.
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Coastal region of Bangladesh possesses a fragile ecosystem and is exposed to hazards like cyclones, floods, storm surges, and water-logging. A detail understanding on the impact of water-logging due to various natural, man-made and climate change scenarios is still lacking. Considering this research gap, the present research is aimed to study impacts of these scenarios inside polders-24 and 25 which are situated on the western part of the coastal region. In this Study as natural scenario, sedimentation in the Hari River; as man-made scenario, new polders in the south-central region and as SLR scenario, an extreme sea level rise of 1.48m are considered. Long-term satellite images are analyzed, and numerical model is applied in the study area. The result shows that water-logging is more acute inside polder-25 compared to polder-24. Sedimentation in Hari River aggravates the water-logging condition. Dredging in Hari River does improve the situation. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 73-83
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Islam, Md Anowarul, and Tomonori Sato. "Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh." Water 13, no. 20 (October 16, 2021): 2915. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13202915.
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The coastal area of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to extreme sea levels because of high population exposure in the low-lying deltaic coast. Since the area lies in the monsoon region, abundant precipitation and the resultant increase in river discharge have raised a flood risk for the coastal area. Although the effects of atmospheric forces have been investigated intensively, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels in this area remains unknown. In this study, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels for three different stations were investigated by multivariate regression using the meteorological drivers of precipitation, sea level pressure, and wind. The prediction of sea levels considering precipitation effects outperformed predictions without precipitation. The benefit of incorporating precipitation was greater at Cox’s Bazar than at Charchanga and Khepupara, reflecting the hilly landscape at Cox’s Bazar. The improved prediction skill was mainly confirmed during the monsoon season, when strong precipitation events occur. It was also revealed that the precipitation over the Bangladesh area is insensitive to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole mode. The precipitation over northern Bangladesh tended to be high in the year of a high sea surface temperature over the Bay of Bengal, which may have contributed to the variation in sea level. The findings suggest that the effect of precipitation plays an essential role in enhancing sea levels during many extreme events. Therefore, incorporating the effect of terrestrial precipitation is essential for the better prediction of extreme sea levels, which helps coastal management and reduction of hazards.
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Gijón Mancheño, Alejandra, Peter M. J. Herman, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Swarna Kazi, Ignacio Urrutia, and Mathijs van Ledden. "Mapping Mangrove Opportunities with Open Access Data: A Case Study for Bangladesh." Sustainability 13, no. 15 (July 22, 2021): 8212. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13158212.
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Mangroves protect coastal areas against hazards like storms or cyclones by attenuating waves and currents, and by trapping floating debris during extreme events. Bangladesh is a very vulnerable country to floods and cyclones, and part of its coastal system is thus being upgraded to a higher safety standard. These upgrades include embankment reinforcement and mangrove afforestation schemes seawards of the embankments. To further strengthen the implementation of combined green–grey infrastructure in future programs, identifying potential mangrove development sites near the polder systems is a necessary first step. We thus developed a tool to systematically identify mangrove sites throughout the coastal area based on open access data. This method identifies potential sites for mangrove development based on their distance from existing mangrove patches and suggests the required technique to implement the vegetation depending on the rate of coastline change. Our method showed that approximately 600 km of the coastal stretches placed seawards of embankments are within 10 km of existing mangroves, and could thus be potential sites for mangrove establishment. Out of those 600 km, we identified 140 km of coastline where the landwards polders are particularly vulnerable to flooding. The sites with highest restoration potential and priority are located in Galachipa, Hatiya, Bhola, Manpura, Khangona, and Boro Moheshkhali. More detailed data collection and local assessments are recommended prior to executing mangrove afforestation schemes. Nevertheless, this method could serve as a useful systematic tool for feasibility studies that identify mangrove opportunities in data-scarce areas and help to prioritize data collection at the sites of highest interest.
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YOUNUS, MD ABOUL FAZAL. "FLOOD VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANGLADESH: A REVIEW." Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management 16, no. 03 (September 2014): 1450024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1464333214500240.
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This paper reviews recent literature on flood research in Bangladesh, focusing on the nation's vulnerability to climate change and its ability to adapt. This review reveals that the literature on community-based vulnerability and adaptation, and their processes and assessments in response to hazards under climate change regimes are inadequate, apart from a recent focus on assessment of the vulnerability of rural communities, their ability to adapt their farming methods, or the economic consequences of failure to adapt in response to extreme flood events, e.g. Younus (2012a,b); Younus and Harvey (2013, 2014). This paper argues that an integrated assessment of rural vulnerability and community-based adaptation is needed in order to ensure sustainable changes in response to future climate change regimes in Bangladesh.
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Mia, Maruf. "Equal Access to Primary Education In Environmentally Challenged Area Of Bangladesh: A Study Into the Tanguar Haor Of Sunamganj District." Social Science Review 38, no. 1 (January 28, 2022): 175–202. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/ssr.v38i1.56530.
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The Tanguar Haor is overwhelmed with huge problems such as flash floods, poverty, extreme dependency on natural resources, lack of alternative sources of income, inadequate health facilities and sanitary latrines, scarcity of potable water, poor road connectivity, the insufficient and flimsy infrastructure of educational institutions. The main objective of this research is to find out the core causes of these problems and to examine how these problems make hindrances to ensure equal access to primary education in Tanguar Haor. Simultaneously, this study has analysed the existing scenario of primary education in this area. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches have been incorporated in this fieldwork-based study. The survey, FGD, and KII methods have been applied in this research to collect primary data from sixty (60) respondents of purposively selected villages and primary schools. The researcher has identified major drawbacks such as poverty, dropout, high repetition, absenteeism in school, shortage of enough teachers that create serious obstacles towards ensuring equal access to primary education in the Tanguar Haor of Sunamganj District. Finally, this study concludes that climate change-induced threats and environmental vulnerabilities are mainly responsible for producing these snags. Social Science Review, Vol. 38(1), June 2021 Page 175-202
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Mitu, Khadija, Nicola Jones, Joost Vintges, and Megan Devonald. "Climate Risks and Truncated Opportunities: How Do Environmental Challenges Intersect with Economic and Social Disadvantages for Rohingya Adolescents in Bangladesh?" Sustainability 14, no. 8 (April 8, 2022): 4466. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14084466.
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Integration of environmental, economic, and social approaches to development is crucial to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Global evidence reflects that this integration is often imbalanced, with development policies and programs in many low- and middle-income countries placing greater emphasis on economic needs than environmental vulnerabilities. Drawing on qualitative research undertaken in mid-2021, this article explores how limited integration of environmental, economic, and social aspects has affected the development of Rohingya refugee adolescents who were forcibly displaced from Myanmar to the Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh. Cox’s Bazar is one of the most climate-vulnerable areas in Bangladesh and is subject to extreme rainfall, landslides, and flash floods. The article highlights the ways in which Rohingya adolescents are highly vulnerable to both the direct and indirect consequences of these environmental conditions due to poverty, and inadequate housing infrastructure and water, sanitation, and hygiene facilities. It discusses the ways in which these environmental challenges intersect with socioeconomic disadvantage, especially limited education, skills development, and livelihood opportunities for young people, which are in turn compounded by limited voice and agency, and a dearth of security and protection measures. For some Rohingya adolescent girls and boys, the findings suggests that these multi-dimensional vulnerabilities place them at risk of exploitation by traffickers, smugglers, extremist groups, and criminals. The article concludes by highlighting the importance of explicitly integrating environmental aspects into policy and programs that support Rohingya adolescents to develop their full capabilities, and encouraging their meaningful participation in policy dialogues and accountability processes.
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Manandhar, Achut, Alex Fischer, David J. Bradley, Mashfiqus Salehin, M. Sirajul Islam, Rob Hope, and David A. Clifton. "Machine Learning to Evaluate Impacts of Flood Protection in Bangladesh, 1983–2014." Water 12, no. 2 (February 11, 2020): 483. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w12020483.
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Impacts of climate change adaptation strategies need to be evaluated using principled methods spanning sectors and longer time frames. We propose machine-learning approaches to study the long-term impacts of flood protection in Bangladesh. Available data include socio-economic survey and events data (death, migration, etc.) from 1983–2014. These multidecadal data, rare in their extent and quality, provide a basis for using machine-learning approaches even though the data were not collected or designed to assess the impact of the flood control investments. We test whether the embankment has affected the welfare of people over time, benefiting those living inside more than those living outside. Machine-learning approaches enable learning patterns in data to help discriminate between two groups: here households living inside vs. outside. They also help identify the most informative indicators of discrimination and provide robust metrics to evaluate the quality of the model. Overall, we find no significant difference between inside/outside populations based on welfare, migration, or mortality indicators. However, we note a significant difference in inward/outward movement with respect to the embankment. While certain data gaps and spatial heterogeneity in sampled populations suggest caution in any conclusive interpretation of the flood protection infrastructure, we do not see higher benefits accruing to those living with higher levels of protection. This has implications for Bangladesh’s planning for future and more extreme climate futures, including the national Delta Plan, and global investments in climate resilient infrastructure to create positive social impacts.
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Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, Junko Mochizuki, and Georg Pflug. "Impacts of Global and Climate Change Uncertainties for Disaster Risk Projections: A Case Study on Rainfall-Induced Flood Risk in Bangladesh." Journal of Extreme Events 03, no. 01 (March 2016): 1650004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s2345737616500044.
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Future risks linked to extreme events and options for managing them are receiving increasing attention in the research and policy arena, where uncertainty is considered to be one of the most challenging aspects in regard to disasters triggered by natural hazards. To shed more light on this issue, this study conducts a detailed uncertainty assessment of a forward-looking country level catastrophe risk model for extreme flood events in Bangladesh and identifies how various sources of uncertainties contribute to the variability in modeling results. Alternative assumptions of climate, exposure and vulnerability parameters show that scenario uncertainty regarding socio-economic development — and exposure in particular — seems to dominate other sources of uncertainty. Importantly, this trend is particularly notable for the estimate of extreme events rather than annual average losses and for the prediction over the longer-time horizons rather than near future. It is concluded that there is ample need to better understand how future vulnerability and exposure will develop as they found to be core determinants of risk, apart from climate change, for increases in extreme losses. One viable way is the incorporation of bottom-up assessment of exposure asset build-up and further analysis of vulnerability drivers, which could reduce epistemic uncertainty regarding projection of catastrophic economic losses into future. It is suggested that the concept of “iterative risk management” may provide a feasible way to achieve reduction of these uncertainties in a step-by-step basis.
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Gros, Clemens, Meghan Bailey, Saroja Schwager, Ahmadul Hassan, Raymond Zingg, Muhammad Mamtaz Uddin, Mohammad Shahjahan, et al. "Household-level effects of providing forecast-based cash in anticipation of extreme weather events: Quasi-experimental evidence from humanitarian interventions in the 2017 floods in Bangladesh." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41 (December 2019): 101275. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101275.
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Paul, Shitangshu Kumar, Md Nazir Hossain, and Shudarshan Kumar Ray. "Monga in northern region of Bangladesh: a study on peoples survival strategies and coping capacities." Rajshahi University Journal of Life & Earth and Agricultural Sciences 41 (January 15, 2015): 41–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/rujleas.v41i0.21620.
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The objective of this paper is to explore peoples survival strategies and coping capacities to combat monga at household level in the northern region of Bangladesh. The agriculture based rural economy, extreme poverty, highpercentage of landless, lack of sufficient caloric intake, unemployment of vast agricultural labour force etc. are the root causes of vulnerability to monga in the northern regions specifically few districts of greater Rangpur. Moreover, geographically this region is vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods and droughts. The past records of food shortages and famine reveal that the trend is still continuing in the monga-prone areas. The present study found that the most vulnerable groups in the monga-prone areas were agricultural wage labourers, landless and marginal farmers, female headed households, children, pregnant women and aged people. The present study also found that with a view to cope with the monga, various coping strategies such as selling of labour with advance payment at cheap rate, borrowing of money, selling of assets, looking for work in other areas, dependency on relief, selling of field crops in advance at cheap rate etc. were adopted by the affected households. The present study also found that coping capacity was associated with household heads socio-economic status e.g. level of education, monthly income, types of occupation, etc. Vulnerability to monga was higher for the illiterate and low income groups than the educated andhigh income groups. The present study argues that the policy makers ofGovernment and NGOs should emphasize on enhancing of coping capacities of poor and marginalized groups through rural centric development, ruralemployment generation, maximum utilization of agricultural land, proper credit support and agro-based industrialisation in the northern Bangladesh.
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Hossain, Babul, Chen Ajiang, and Crispin Magige Ryakitimbo. "Responses to Flood Disaster: Use of Indigenous Knowledge and Adaptation Strategies in Char Village, Bangladesh." Environmental Management and Sustainable Development 8, no. 4 (September 16, 2019): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/emsd.v8i4.15233.
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The present study attempts to analyze flood disaster phenomenon on local char village and the people’s adaptation strategies against the catastrophe flood in the char. This study predominantly is qualitative. At the same time, quantitative data have also been used for doing research meaningfully. After the field survey, the empirical sociological analysis reveals that the socio-economic impact was worsened. This impact showed that almost 100% of crops land washed, 49% of livestock fully damaged, 70% of people lost their income as well as 35.2% of house fully damaged, 95.2% of households loss of food stock and most of the sanitary facilities affected due to the extreme flood in 2017 at kalur para Char village of Fulchari Upazila (Sub-district). Regarding this matter, local people took some of their strategies to alleviate the intensity of the flood disaster, which helped them to survive. These strategies were categorized into three phases, i.e. before, during and after the flood. At the time of field survey, it was found that people were mainly engaged to raise the house from the ground, stockpile dry and constant food, move their livestock to safer palaces, sow rapid growing paddy, take shelter in high places, purify drinking water by boiling before and during the flood. After the flood, some measures taken by people were also identified, i.e. regarding financial solvency people took a loan from various organizations, grow short time crops, explore new work opportunities etc. As a result, the severity of the flood is somewhat reducing, and the affected people are also getting pluck to survive against the flood.
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Sarker, S., MA Farukh, N. Sharmin, and A. Ali. "Assessing the Disaster Induced Migration and Displacement in the South-west of Bangladesh." Journal of Environmental Science and Natural Resources 12, no. 1-2 (February 11, 2021): 135–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jesnr.v12i1-2.52009.
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Climate change has become a major concern for the international community. It has great impact on human migration and displacement. The objective of this study was to know the number of migrants in coastal districts of Bangladesh. The study was conducted in nine southwest districts of Barishal and Khulna division. The research results are based on field surveys, focus group discussion with local people; data from DC office of the respective districts and secondary data from different sources, which were conducted from February to March, 2020 in selected southwest coastal districts of Bangladesh. The study identified the number of human migration and displacement due to different extreme climatic events like riverbank erosion, cyclone and storm surge, flood and salinity intrusion. The study also found that migration and displacement due to disasters is higher in Barishal division than that of Khulna division.
Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 12(1&2): 135-141, 2019
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Bernard, Aurélia, Nathalie Long, Mélanie Becker, Jamal Khan, and Sylvie Fanchette. "Bangladesh's vulnerability to cyclonic coastal flooding." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 3 (March 8, 2022): 729–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-729-2022.
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Abstract. In the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, covering most of Bangladesh, more than 165 million people live in low-lying coasts facing major extreme climatic events, such as cyclones. This article reviews the current scientific literature publications (2007–2020) in order to define vulnerability in the context of coastal Bangladesh facing cyclonic flooding. Based on this review, a new metric, called the socio-spatial vulnerability index (SSVI), is defined as function of both the probability of the cyclonic flood hazard and the sensitivity of delta inhabitants. The main result shows that the districts of Shariatpur, Chandpur and Barisal situated in the tidal floodplain of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta are in the fourth quartile, i.e., highest category, the most vulnerable areas. These districts are very densely populated (from 870 up to 1400 inhabitants per square kilometer) and exposed to inundation hazards with a large number of vulnerability factors. Finally, the delta's mouth was identified as a very vulnerable area to cyclonic flooding as well.
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Miah, Mohammad Yusuf, Mohammad Mosarof Hossain, Petra Schneider, Mohammad Mojibul Hoque Mozumder, Sabrina Jannat Mitu, and Md Mostafa Shamsuzzaman. "Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers of Change under Human-Dominated Pressure—The Meghna River Estuary of Bangladesh." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (April 16, 2021): 4458. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084458.
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The Meghna river estuary has had substantial importance in supporting the coastal community’s livelihood for decades, but the pressure on it is immense due to many anthropogenic drivers. The present study aimed to assess its ecosystem services (ES) according to the framework of the standard international classification of ecosystem services (CICES). This study also identified the drivers, pressure, state, impact, and responses (DPSIR), and the factors responsible for ES changes in the Meghna river estuarine ecosystems. By merging both quantitative and qualitative data, a total of 19 sub-categories of ES were found, among which eight are provisioning, seven are regulatory, and four are cultural services, according to the CICES framework. From the results, it can be concluded that food provisioning from the Hilsha fishery, the national fish as a part of cultural heritage, and nursery habitat functions were the top provisional, regulatory, and cultural services to the society in the study areas and beyond. However, several threats and stressors of both anthropogenic and natural origins were identified as drivers of ES changes, such as overexploitation, destructive and illegal fishing, heavy river bed siltation, and natural hazards such as extreme cyclonic events, floods, and sea levels rising. This study underlines the urgency of research and policy attention to address the challenges, and of transforming management regimes to an ecosystem-based approach, which is part of nature-based solutions according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which refers to the present case, and particularly to fishery co-management. Creating alternative income sources and raising community awareness regarding the importance of maintaining the healthy condition of the river basins, and comprehensive compliance with the rules and regulations are proposed in order to ensure these estuarine ecosystems’ sustainability.
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Billah, Mustain, Md Nasim Adnan, Mostafijur Rahman Akhond, Romana Rahman Ema, Md Alam Hossain, and Syed Md. Galib. "Rainfall prediction system for Bangladesh using long short-term memory." Open Computer Science 12, no. 1 (January 1, 2022): 323–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/comp-2022-0254.
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Abstract Rainfall prediction is a challenging task and has extreme significance in weather forecasting. Accurate rainfall prediction can play a great role in agricultural, aviation, natural phenomenon, flood, construction, transport, etc. Weather or climate is assumed to be one of the most complex systems. Again, chaos, also called as “butterfly effect,” limits our ability to make weather predictable. So, it is not easy to predict rainfall by conventional machine learning approaches. However, several kinds of research have been proposed to predict rainfall by using different computational methods. To accomplish chaotic rainfall prediction system for Bangladesh, in this study, historical data set-driven long short term memory (LSTM) networks method has been used, which overcomes the complexities and chaos-related problems faced by other approaches. The proposed method has three principal phases: (i) The most useful 10 features are chosen from 20 data attributes. (ii) After that, a two-layer LSTM model is designed. (iii) Both conventional machine learning approaches and recent works are compared with the LSTM model. This approach has gained 97.14% accuracy in predicting rainfall (in millimeters), which outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions. Also, this work is a pioneer work to the rainfall prediction system for Bangladesh.
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Hossain, Babul, Md Salman Sohel, and Crispin Magige Ryakitimbo. "Climate change induced extreme flood disaster in Bangladesh: Implications on people's livelihoods in the Char Village and their coping mechanisms." Progress in Disaster Science 6 (April 2020): 100079. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.pdisas.2020.100079.
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Surinaidu, L., Upali Amarasinghe, R. Maheswaran, and M. J. Nandan. "Assessment of long-term hydrogeological changes and plausible solutions to manage hydrological extremes in the transnational Ganga river basin." H2Open Journal 3, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 457–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/h2oj.2020.049.
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Abstract The Ganga is an international transboundary river that flows across three major riparian countries: India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, where India shares a significant proportion of the total basin area. The river system is highly dynamic and regularly floods in all three countries due to abundant rainfall in a short period of only four months each year that causes tremendous loss of both property and human life. In this study, we have done a synoptic review to synthesize the hydrology, hydrogeology, and modeling studies that have analyzed hydrological changes and their impacts in the Ganga basin. This review also identifies some of the knowledge gaps and discusses possible options for enhancing the understanding of sustainable water development and management. This review indicated that transparent data sharing, use of satellite-based observations along with in-situ data, integrated hydro-economic modeling linked to reliable coupled surface–groundwater models, a central shared decision support center for early warning systems to deal with hydrological extremes, joint river commissions and monitoring teams, and multilateral water sharing treaties (agreements) are required to promote sustainable and equitable distribution of water resources and to avoid water sharing conflicts in the Ganga basin.
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Islam, Md Matiul, Mst Gulshan Ara, Tuhin Roy, and Md Sarwar Jahan. "ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES OF COASTAL PEOPLE IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: EXPERIENCES FROM TWO VILLAGES OF DACOPE UPAZILA IN BANGLADESH." Environment & Ecosystem Science 6, no. 1 (2022): 17–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.26480/ees.01.2022.17.28.
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Coastal zone of Bangladesh is vulnerable to different disasters due to global climate change. However, the vulnerability magnitude and impact of climate change has been hardly assessed focusing livelihood issues. Thus, this study was carried out to assess the impacts of the climate change and to find out the existing adaptation strategies at two villages of Dacope upazila in Khulna district of Bangladesh involving purposively selected 100 farmers. A survey was conducted using a pre-tested structured interview schedule. It was found that the highest proportion of the respondents (77%) belonged to low-income group (˂50,000 BDT i.e., 587.98 USD family-1). Villagers faced water stagnation, flood, high salinity, and severe drought during summer. These natural disasters damaged the crops, livestock, poultry, trees, houses, roads and shrimp water bodies. Probable solutions to mitigate the disasters would be construction of strong bunds, collecting and storing fresh water through digging small farm ponds, using the stored water for irrigation, training for awareness building, invention of alternate sustainable technology, excavation of canals and GO-NGO collaboration. Farmers reported that rainwater harvesting, hanging vegetable gardening, gher/embankment gardening, domestic animal rearing, handicrafts, etc. were some viable livelihood options. Development and release of new crop varieties, protection of the Sundarbans and awareness building through motivation might be some coping strategies for future extreme weather events.
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Siddiqui, Rezwan. "Patterns and Factors of Natural Hazard Induced Out-migration from Meghna Estuarine Islands of Bangladesh." GeoScape 8, no. 1 (June 26, 2014): 17–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/geosc-2014-0003.
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Abstract Migration behaviour of the Inhabitants of Meghna Estuarine region has been affected by several social, economic and natural causes. This migration has been thought as a part of social behaviour in this region. It has been predicted in several international researches that, human migration is going to be the worst possible effect triggered by the changing climatic scenario (IPCC, 2007). Natural hazards are also very much responsible for human migration. Purpose of this research is to find out the pattern and factors of natural hazards induced outmigration in Meghna Estuarine Islands of Bangladesh. In this empirical research, primary data has been collected through threestage socioeconomic survey. From this research it has been seen that, natural hazards like river bank erosion, saline tide, flood, cyclone, storms cause extreme havoc to the life and livelihood of the inhabitants of Meghna Estuary islands. Many of these situations force inhabitants to migrate temporarily or permanently. Indirectly these hazards also affects migration behaviours by affecting natural resources and income sources of inhabitants of this region. Natural hazards have two types of effect on migration behaviour; one is forcing rapid migration by riverbank erosion, cyclone etc. and the other is making situations for slow migration decision by disturbing the regular economic, social and environmental system. Two types of outmigrations are prominent in these islands; permanent household migration and partial migration – and these migration behaviours have been influenced by natural hazards of these study areas.
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Dey, Nepal C., Mahmood Parvez, and Mir Raihanul Islam. "A study on the impact of the 2017 early monsoon flash flood: Potential measures to safeguard livelihoods from extreme climate events in the haor area of Bangladesh." International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 59 (June 2021): 102247. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102247.
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Islam, Md Kabirul, Numan Al Kibriya, and Md Maruf Dustegir. "Impact Analysis of Sand Dredging from Alluvial Tidal River." E3S Web of Conferences 40 (2018): 03036. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184003036.
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The Government of Bangladesh has planned to make a large build up area (BUA) in a newly developed sedimentary point bar (locally known as ‘Char’) at Lebukhali along the northern bank of Payra river in the southern part of the country. From a study it was revealed that, this sedimentary bar has to be raised by 3.45 meters from MSL to keep it free from any extreme events (like tidal and storm surge effects) for 100 years return period. Accordingly, it was planned to collect the required filling material (estimated 57.6 million m3 of sand/soil) by dredging the same river bed. In Bangladesh dredging of river is very popular and widely undertaken to collect filling and construction material, but its adverse impact on river bed, bank and adjacent areas are hardly probed. This study aimed at analyzing the adverse impacts of dredging from Payra River bed. Four alternative sand bars have been identified as dredging area at varying distances located both upstream and downstream of the proposed site. The dredging impacts were analyzed for different boundary conditions. The study is based on physical survey (topographic and bathymetric surveys), historical data and numerical model analysis. Numerical model is applied through Delf 3D to investigate the impact on flow parameters: flood depth and velocity magnitude. Continuous field visit and observations were made through last one year to observe real impact. The analysis revealed that dredging of any of the bars have resulted changes in flow field. The distance of dredging point does not control the flow field rather the dredging volume, depth and upstream conditions determine the effect on bank erosion. As such, the dredging locations have been prioritized considering the least possible effects on river bank erosion and founded that little erosion is taking place for both upstream and downstream region. However, the long term impacts in other areas of the river need to be investigated as the time pass.
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Islam, Md Rakibul, Md Jamil Hossain Biswas, Md Golam Rabbani Akanda, Md Ruhul Amin, Imam Mehedi Hasan, Abdulla Al Asif, S. Sheheli, and BM Newaz Sharif. "Attitude of the farmers towards climate change effect on agriculture." Asian Journal of Medical and Biological Research 1, no. 2 (November 23, 2015): 367–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/ajmbr.v1i2.25631.
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Global climate change has triggered the increased incidence of extreme disasters like cyclone, flood, soil salinity, etc. in the coastal region of Bangladesh. In the recent past, an amplified number of fatalities happened and the greater impact also acted upon the attitude of coastal people. Badarpur Union under Patuakhali Sadar upazila of Patuakhali District was the selected locale of the concerned study. Data for this research work were personally collected from a randomly sampled 121 farmers from different villages of Badarpur union by using an interview schedule. Attitude of the farmers was ascertained through a five-point-Likert type scale. Co-efficient of correlation (r) was computed to explore the relationships between farmers? attitude and their selected characteristics. The findings revealed that 51.2 percent of the farmers had moderately favourable attitude towards climate change effect while 42.1 percent had slightly favourable and 6.6 percent had highly favourable attitude. The correlation test showed that the education, farming experience, farm size, annual income, training received and agricultural knowledge had positive significant relationships with farmers? attitude towards climate change effect on agriculture while the rest of the characteristics had no relationship in the present study. The focus findings of the present study were that, the attitude of the farmers is changing due to changes in the climatic conditions and there was a positive effect of it on agriculture.Asian J. Med. Biol. Res. June 2015, 1(2): 367-379
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Asarin, A. E. "Dams and extreme floods." Hydrotechnical Construction 27, no. 8 (August 1993): 444–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/bf01545136.
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Shaw, Rosalind. "Living with Floods in Bangladesh." Anthropology Today 5, no. 1 (February 1989): 11. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3032853.
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JABBAR, M. A. "Floods and Livestock in Bangladesh." Disasters 14, no. 4 (December 1990): 358–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.1990.tb01081.x.
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Khondker, Habibul Haque. "Women and Floods in Bangladesh." International Journal of Mass Emergencies & Disasters 14, no. 3 (November 1996): 281–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/028072709601400302.
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This paper examines the consequences of a flood disaster on rural women in northern Bangladesh. Based on fieldwork. it is argued that floods affect rural women more adversely than rural men. Floods destroy the household resources undermining the economic well-being of rural women. Researchers and authorities in charge of rehabilitation have not paid enough attention to the uneven impact of flood disasters on gender groups. Women are rarely involved in the decision-making process regarding disaster response. The lack of participation of women in particular and the local community in general in the planning and execution of counterdisaster plans insure that such issues are not noticed. Bureaucratic disaster respondents to he short term in its scope and fails to link disaster response and rehabilitation with development activities. Various nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) operating in the rural Bangladesh seem to have closer ties with the local community and a better understanding of the linkage between rehabilitation and development. However, because of the limited scope of their operations and constraints of resources, the influence of these NGOs are not sustainable. The rural women cope on their own. The status quo ante is achieved, a continuation of impoverished existence which makes them vulnerable to the next flooding or other such disasters. Successful counterdisaster strategies need to take gender dimension into account and link crisis response and rehabilitation strategies to development initiatives. This would entail participation of women in counterdisaster plans and assuring the economic well-being of rural women.
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Kimber, Alan, and National Research Council. "Estimating Probabilities of Extreme Floods." Journal of the American Statistical Association 84, no. 406 (June 1989): 627. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2289977.
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Witze, Alexandra. "Attack of the extreme floods." Nature 555, no. 7695 (March 2018): 156–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/d41586-018-02745-0.
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