Academic literature on the topic 'Extrapolative beliefs'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Extrapolative beliefs.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Journal articles on the topic "Extrapolative beliefs"
1
Son-Turan, Semen, and Erdem Kilic. "X-CAPM REVISITED: THE INSTITUTIONAL EXTRAPOLATIVE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (I-X-CAPM)." Eurasian Journal of Business and Management 6, no. 3 (2018): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.15604/ejbm.2018.06.03.001.
Full textAbstract:
This study constructs and tests a consumption-based asset pricing model in which some investors form beliefs about future price changes in the stock market by extrapolating past price changes, while other investors hold fully rational beliefs. The contribution of the present work is the inclusion of institutional investor bias. As such it extends theory. But it also conducts econometric tests by using daily survey data on individual and institutional investors’ sentiment on the current economic situation and their future expectations. Empirical findings may imply that institutions’ sentiment reverts quicker to the equilibrium price than individual sentiment, at least with regard to their beliefs on future economic outlook. If studied further with a bigger dataset, it may imply that institutional investors are closer to the rational-decision making mechanism compared to individual investors. The theoretical framework rests on prospect theory. The market studied is the US equity market, however findings and suggestions can be applied to global markets and various financial instruments.
2
Frydman, Cary, and Gideon Nave. "Extrapolative Beliefs in Perceptual and Economic Decisions: Evidence of a Common Mechanism." Management Science 63, no. 7 (July 2017): 2340–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2453.
Full text
3
Fuster, Andreas, David Laibson, and Brock Mendel. "Natural Expectations and Macroeconomic Fluctuations." Journal of Economic Perspectives 24, no. 4 (November 1, 2010): 67–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.24.4.67.
Full textAbstract:
A large body of empirical evidence suggests that beliefs systematically deviate from perfect rationality. Much of the evidence implies that economic agents tend to form forecasts that are excessively influenced by recent changes. We present a parsimonious quasi-rational model that we call natural expectations, which falls between rational expectations and (naïve) intuitive expectations. (Intuitive expectations are formed by running growth regressions with a limited number of right-hand-side variables, and this leads to excessively extrapolative beliefs in certain classes of environments). Natural expectations overstate the long-run persistence of economic shocks. In other words, agents with natural expectations turn out to form beliefs that don't sufficiently account for the fact that good times (or bad times) won't last forever. We embed natural expectations in a simple dynamic macroeconomic model and compare the simulated properties of the model to the available empirical evidence. The model's predictions match many patterns observed in macroeconomic and financial time series, such as high volatility of asset prices, predictable up-and-down cycles in equity returns, and a negative relationship between current consumption growth and future equity returns.
4
Kerzel, Dirk, and Jochen Müsseler. "Mental and sensorimotor extrapolation fare better than motion extrapolation in the offset condition." Behavioral and Brain Sciences 31, no. 2 (April 2008): 206–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x08003907.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractEvidence for motion extrapolation at motion offset is scarce. In contrast, there is abundant evidence that subjects mentally extrapolate the future trajectory of weak motion signals at motion offset. Further, pointing movements overshoot at motion offset. We believe that mental and sensorimotor extrapolation is sufficient to solve the problem of perceptual latencies. Both present the advantage of being much more flexible than motion extrapolation.
5
Orestova, Vasilisa R., Daria P. Tkachenko, and Marina A. Manchkhashvili. "IRRATIONALITY OF THINKING AS A WAY TO COPE WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODERN WORLD." RSUH/RGGU Bulletin. Series Psychology. Pedagogics. Education, no. 4 (2021): 50–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.28995/2073-6398-2021-4-50-64.
Full textAbstract:
This work is devoted to the study of the peculiarities of the worldview, in particular, the irrational attitudes of modern people who find themselves in a situation of abrupt changes. Their significance for coping with uncertainty and maintaining a sense of security and control of the world is analyzed. The article considers domestic and foreign approaches to understanding the mechanisms of overcoming and rethinking the changing reality, as well as the contribution of irrational beliefs to strategies aimed at coping with the crisis. The results of an empirical study of the peculiarities of the worldview of people faced with the COVID-19 pandemic and the selfisolation regime introduced in March 2020 are presented. A comparative analysis of the data obtained from 188 respondents was carried out in terms of basic beliefs, belief in the supernatural and conspiracy theory, propensity to pseudo-intentionality, and locus of control. The contributions of gender and age factors to the expression of basic beliefs, irrational attitudes, belief in the supernatural and pseudo-intentionality are shown. The connection of basic beliefs with a tendency to pseudo-intentional attitudes, irrational beliefs and belief in conspiracy theory is demonstrated. The conclusion is made about the predominant importance of maintaining the basic attitudes of the personality when faced with abrupt changes in the familiar world. The limitations of extrapolation of research results due to the specificity of the surveyed sample are noted.
6
Ferreira, M. Jamie. "Religion's ‘Foundation in Reason’: The Common Sense of Hume's Natural History." Canadian Journal of Philosophy 24, no. 4 (December 1994): 565–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00455091.1994.10717385.
Full textAbstract:
David Hume’s critique of religion reveals what seems to be a vacillation in his commitment to an argument-based paradigm of legitimate believing. On the one hand, Hume assumes such a traditional (argumentbased) model of rational justification of beliefs in order to point to the weakness of some classical arguments for religious belief (e.g., the design argument), to chastise the believer for extrapolating to a conclusion which outstrips its evidential warrant. On the other hand, Hume, ‘mitigated’ or naturalist skeptic that he is, at other times rejects an argumentbased paradigm of certainty and truth, and so sees as irrelevant the traditional or ‘regular’ model of rational justification; he places a premium on instinctive belief, as both unavoidable and (usually) more reliable than reasoning. On this view, a forceful critique of religion would have to fault it, not for failing to meet criteria of rational argument (failing to proportion belief to the evidence), but (as Hume sometimes seems to) for failing to be the right sort of instinct.
7
Bode, Michael, Christopher M. Baker, Joe Benshemesh, Tim Burnard, Libby Rumpff, Cindy E. Hauser, José J. Lahoz‐Monfort, and Brendan A. Wintle. "Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios." Methods in Ecology and Evolution 8, no. 8 (December 19, 2016): 1012–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12703.
Full text
8
DellaVigna, S. "Psychology and Economics: Evidence from the Field. Part II: Social Preferences and Nonstandard Beliefs." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 5 (May 20, 2011): 56–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2011-5-56-74.
Full textAbstract:
The second part of a larger work devoted to the modern behavioral economics considers nonstandard preferences that are manifest in altruistic behavior and charitable giving. The author also deals with nonstandard beliefs and shows how overconfidence, incorrect estimation of probabilities and extrapolation of previous experience produce biases in the rational decision-making, including the behavior on financial markets.
9
Skrzypiec, Grace. "Adolescents’ Beliefs About Why Young People Commit Crime." Australian Journal of Guidance and Counselling 23, no. 2 (September 4, 2013): 185–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jgc.2013.16.
Full textAbstract:
The aim of the study was to obtain adolescents’ perspectives about why young people offend. Twenty-four Australian male and female offenders and non-offenders offered insights about what, according to them, motivates young people to become involved in crime. Without the use of sophisticated language, participants offered explanations that were well-aligned with the ‘big three’ theories suggested by Cullen and Agnew (2003) as major criminological theories — namely, control, differential association, and strain theories. Participants also provided explanations that corroborated Carroll, Houghton, Durkin, and Hattie's (2009) reputation enhancing goals theory. Participants’ explanations were consistent with empirically supported criminological theories, suggesting that young people involved in crime, or associated with known offenders, have insights about the causes of crime. An extrapolation of this notion would suggest that they might also have some insight into what measures could be taken to reduce or prevent offending. Notwithstanding further research, it is proposed that young people should be given more voice in criminal justice matters.
10
Dupin de Saint-Cyr, Florence, and Jérôme Lang. "Belief extrapolation (or how to reason about observations and unpredicted change)." Artificial Intelligence 175, no. 2 (February 2011): 760–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.artint.2010.11.002.
Full textDissertations / Theses on the topic "Extrapolative beliefs"
1
(11089731), Zhaojing Chen. "Extrapolative Beliefs and the Value Premium." Thesis, 2021.
Find full textAbstract:
In models of stock returns where investors with extrapolative beliefs on future stocks (e.g., Barberis and Shleifer (2003)), price momentum and the value premium both arise naturally. The key insight from these models is that, the strength and timing of these cross- sectional return anomalies will be conditional on the degree of extrapolative bias. More specifically, higher (lower) degree of over-extrapolation leading to stronger value premium (momentum).
Using the time-series variation in the degree of over-extrapolation documented in Cassella and Gulen (2018), I first directly test the hypothesis that both value and momentum stem from over-extrapolation in financial markets. I find that the average momentum return is 1.00% (0.10%) per month when the degree of over-extrapolation is low (high), whereas the average value premium is 0.51% (1.29%) per month following low (high) levels of over- extrapolation.
Furthermore, I extend the model in Barberis and Shleifer (2003) by having both within- equity extrapolators and across asset-class extrapolator. The extension is based on the idea that when extrapolators move capital in and out of the equity market, they disproportionately buy growth stocks in good times and sell value stocks in bad times. The model predicts that the cross-sectional value premium should be stronger following states of large market- wide over- or undervaluation due to additional extrapolative demand to buy or sell. This prediction is tested empirically and I find strong support for it. The value premium is 3.42% per month following market-wide undervaluation and 1.70% per month following market overvaluation. In the remainder 60% to 80% of the sample, when the market is neither significantly over or under-valued, there is no significant value premium in a monthly horizon and the value premium is only 0.54% per month in an annual horizon. I provide some suggestive evidence regarding portfolio return dynamics, investor expectation errors and fund flows that supports the extrapolative demand channel. Overall, this work examines more closely at the effect of extrapolative beliefs on the cross-section of asset prices and offers some support for extrapolation-based asset-pricing theories.
Books on the topic "Extrapolative beliefs"
1
Tennant, Neil. Core Logic. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198777892.001.0001.
Full textAbstract:
Core Logic has unusual philosophical, proof-theoretic, metalogical, computational, and revision-theoretic virtues. It is an elegant kernel lying deep within Classical Logic, a canon for constructive and relevant deduction furnishing faithful formalizations of informal constructive mathematical proofs. Its classicized extension provides likewise for non-constructive mathematical reasoning. Confining one’s search to core proofs affords automated reasoners great gains in efficiency. All logico-semantical paradoxes involve only core reasoning. Core proofs are in normal form, and relevant in a highly exigent ‘vocabulary-sharing’ sense never attained before. Essential advances on the traditional Gentzenian treatment are that core natural deductions are isomorphic to their corresponding sequent proofs, and make do without the structural rules of Cut and Thinning. This ensures relevance of premises to conclusions of proofs, without loss of logical completeness. Every core proof converts any verifications of its premises into a verification of its conclusion. Core Logic makes one reassess the dogma of ‘unrestricted’ transitivity of deduction, because any core ‘restriction’ of transitivity ensures a more than compensatory payoff of epistemic gain: A core proof of A from X and one of B from {A}∪Y effectively determine a proof of B or of absurdity from some subset of X∪Y. The primitive introduction and elimination rules governing the logical operators in Core Logic are subtly different from Gentzen’s. They are obtained by smoothly extrapolating protean rules for determining truth values of sentences under interpretations. Core rules are inviolable: One needs all of them in order to revise beliefs rationally in light of new evidence.
Book chapters on the topic "Extrapolative beliefs"
1
"Extrapolation in Financial Markets." In A Crisis of Beliefs, 107–36. Princeton University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctvc77dv1.8.
Full text
2
"CHAPTER 4 Extrapolation in Financial Markets." In A Crisis of Beliefs, 107–36. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.23943/9780691184920-006.
Full text
3
Brock, André. "Making a Way out of No Way." In Distributed Blackness, 210–42. NYU Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479820375.003.0007.
Full textAbstract:
This chapter closes out Distributed Blackness by extrapolating from Black digital practice to a theory of Black technoculture, examining Black cultural discourses about technology’s mediations of intellect, sociality, progress, and culture itself. In doing so, it reviews various approaches to theorizing Blackness, Black bodies, Black culture, and technology. These approaches include Afrofuturism; but this chapter supplements Afrofuturism by suggesting that Black technoculture is invested in the “postpresent” rather than speculating about Blackness’s future within some yet to be established sociopolitical technological reality. Black technocultural theory insists that the digital’s virtual separation from the material world still retains ideologies born of physical, temporal, and social beliefs about race, modernity, and the future.
4
Smith, Gary, and Jay Cordes. "Duped and Deceived." In The Phantom Pattern Problem, 47–74. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198864165.003.0004.
Full textAbstract:
We are hard-wired to notice, seek, and be influenced by patterns. Sometimes these turn out to be useful; other times, they dupe and deceive us. Our affinity for patterns is powerful—no doubt, aided and abetted by selective recall and confirmation bias. We remember when a pattern persists and confirms our belief, and we forget or explain away times when it doesn’t. We are still under the spell of silly superstitions and captivated by numerical coincidences. We still think that some numbers are lucky, and others unlucky, even though the numbers deemed lucky and unlucky vary from culture to culture. We still think some numbers are special and notice them all around us. We still turn numerical patterns into laws and extrapolate flukes into confident predictions. The allure of patterns is hard to ignore. The temptation is hard to resist.
5
Gitelman, Zvi. "Do Jewish Schools Make a Difference in the Former Soviet Union?" In Jewish Day Schools, Jewish Communities, 109–38. Liverpool University Press, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.3828/liverpool/9781904113744.003.0006.
Full textAbstract:
This chapter describes Jewish education in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Intensive Jewish education is seen in many countries, including Israel, as the most promising antidote to the assimilation of Jews — meaning the loss of Jewish identity and commitment. Full-day schools especially have been seized upon by Jews in the FSU and their foreign supporters as the optimal solution to the lack of Jewish education, institutions, public life, and private religious practice among the 400,000 or so Jews left in the FSU. This conclusion is based on extrapolation from Western Jewry's experiences. Common sense would also lead one to believe that viable Jewish life — that which engages people in private and public Jewish behaviours and transmits commitment across generations — depends on education, and not of children alone. One crucial difference between the West and the FSU is that in the West, Jewish education is conveyed in a wider context of Jewish commitment and activity: the family, organized peer and interest groups, a communal structure, religious and cultural institutions, and family and group traditions. In the FSU, Jewish schools exist in a partial void.
6
Blum, Bruce I. "The Design Process." In Beyond Programming. Oxford University Press, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195091601.003.0013.
Full textAbstract:
we have arrived at the last layer of the foundation. I now can begin a systematic analysis of design. As a brief reminder, this really is a book about the development of software applications. My thesis is that we can expect only limited improvement to software application and productivity by working within the current design paradigm (i.e, technological design). I believe that we must shift paradigms to exploit the special characteristics of software. But paradigm shifts are revolutions, and one cannot comprehend any new paradigm by extrapolating from the concepts and methods of the present paradigm. Thus, we must destroy before we can rebuild. In the physical sciences, the justification for destruction comes from outside the paradigm; phenomena are observed that are at variance with the models of normal science, and new theories are needed to explain them. Computer science and software engineering, however, are formalizations for free phenomena. In a sense, they are self-defining; they establish their own criteria for relevance and evaluation. If we are to replace those criteria, therefore, we must begin outside normal computer science. And that is the justification for these first two parts. Part I examines the meaning and limitations of science and provides an interpretation of design: the modification of the environment (or “changing existing conditions into preferred ones”). Part II looks at design from the perspective of those who make and use the designs. I deliberately remain outside the domain of computer science in my search for the knowledge that will be relevant to the subsequent examination of software. Once this knowledge has been assembled, Part III can enter into a less biased consideration of software and its role in the next millennium. Thus, the first two parts construct the context within which a new computer science can be defined, and Part III offers adaptive design as an illustration of what this new computer science can accomplish. where are we now in this odyssey? Chapter 1 begins with the traditional view in which the maturity of software engineering as a discipline is related to its utilization of computer science principles.
7
Xu, Zhe, David John, and Anthony C. Boucouvalas. "Fuzzy Logic Usage in Emotion Communication of Human Machine Interaction." In Encyclopedia of Human Computer Interaction, 227–33. IGI Global, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/978-1-59140-562-7.ch036.
Full textAbstract:
As the popularity of the Internet has expanded, an increasing number of people spend time online. More than ever, individuals spend time online reading news, searching for new technologies, and chatting with others. Although the Internet was designed as a tool for computational calculations, it has now become a social environment with computer-mediated communication (CMC). Picard and Healey (1997) demonstrated the potential and importance of emotion in human-computer interaction, and Bates (1992) illustrated the roles that emotion plays in user interactions with synthetic agents. Is emotion communication important for human-computer interaction? Scott and Nass (2002) demonstrated that humans extrapolate their interpersonal interaction patterns onto computers. Humans talk to computers, are angry with them, and even make friends with them. In our previous research, we demonstrated that social norms applied in our daily life are still valid for human-computer interaction. Furthermore, we proved that providing emotion visualisation in the human-computer interface could significantly influence the perceived performances and feelings of humans. For example, in an online quiz environment, human participants answered questions and then a software agent judged the answers and presented either a positive (happy) or negative (sad) expression. Even if two participants performed identically and achieved the same number of correct answers, the perceived performance for the one in the positive-expression environment is significantly higher than the one in the negative-expression environment (Xu, 2005). Although human emotional processes are much more complex than in the above example and it is difficult to build a complete computational model, various models and applications have been developed and applied in human-agent interaction environments such as the OZ project (Bates, 1992), the Cathexis model (Velasquez, 1997), and Elliot’s (1992) affective reasoner. We are interested in investigating the influences of emotions not only for human-agent communication, but also for online human-human communications. The first question is, can we detect a human’s emotional state automatically and intelligently? Previous works have concluded that emotions can be detected in various ways—in speech, in facial expressions, and in text—for example, investigations that focus on the synthesis of facial expressions and acoustic expression including Kaiser and Wehrle (2000), Wehrle, Kaiser, Schmidt, and Scherer (2000), and Zentner and Scherer (1998). As text is still dominating online communications, we believe that emotion detection in textual messages is particularly important.
Conference papers on the topic "Extrapolative beliefs"
1
Kestler, Grady, Shahrokh Yadegari, and David Nahamoo. "Head Related Impulse Response Interpolation and Extrapolation Using Deep Belief Networks." In ICASSP 2019 - 2019 IEEE International Conference on Acoustics, Speech and Signal Processing (ICASSP). IEEE, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icassp.2019.8683570.
Full text
2
Nourgaliev, Robert, Nam Dinh, and Theo Theofanous. "The ‘Characteristics-Based Matching’ (CBM) Method for Compressible Flow With Moving Boundaries and Interfaces." In ASME/JSME 2003 4th Joint Fluids Summer Engineering Conference. ASMEDC, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/fedsm2003-45550.
Full textAbstract:
Recently, Eulerian methods for capturing interfaces in multi-fluid problems become increasingly popular. While these methods can effectively handle significant deformations of interface, they have been known to produce nonphysical oscillations near material interfaces due to the smeared out density profile and radical change in equation of state across a material interface. One promising recent development to overcome these problems is the ‘Ghost Fluid Method’ (GFM). While being able to produce excellent results for simulation of gas-gas flows, the GFM boundary treatment is unsatisfactory for the case of liquid-liquid or liquid-gas compressible flows. The present study devotes to a new methodology for boundary condition capturing in multi-fluid compressible flows. The method, named ‘Characteristics-Based Matching (CBM)’, capitalizes on the recent development of the level set method and related techniques, i.e., PDE-based re-initialization and extrapolation, and the ‘Ghost Fluid Method’ (GFM). Specifically, the CBM utilizes the level set function to ‘capture’ interface position and a GFM-like strategy to tag computational nodes. In difference to the GFM method, which employs a boundary condition capturing in primitive variables, the CBM method implements boundary conditions based on a characteristic decomposition in the direction normal to the boundary. Since the method allows to avoid over-specification of boundary conditions by respecting the information flow, we believe that the CBM is able to ‘cure’ above-mentioned problems of the GFM boundary condition capturing technique. In this paper, the method’s performance is examined on fluid dynamics problems with stationary and moving boundaries. Numerical results agree well with known analytical or computational solutions and experimental data. Robust and accurate solutions were obtained. In particular, spurious over/under-heating errors, typical for moving boundary treatment by other methods, are essentially eliminated in the CBM solutions.