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1
Cole, Selina R., and Melanie J. Hopkins. "Selectivity and the effect of mass extinctions on disparity and functional ecology." Science Advances 7, no. 19 (May 2021): eabf4072. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abf4072.
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Selectivity of mass extinctions is thought to play a major role in coupling or decoupling of taxonomic, morphological, and ecological diversity, yet these measures have never been jointly evaluated within a single clade over multiple mass extinctions. We investigate extinction selectivity and changes in taxonomic diversity, morphological disparity, and functional ecology over the ~160-million-year evolutionary history of diplobathrid crinoids (Echinodermata), which spans two mass extinctions. Whereas previous studies documented extinction selectivity for crinoids during background extinction, we find no evidence for selectivity during mass extinctions. Despite no evidence for extinction selectivity, disparity remains strongly correlated with richness over extinction events, contradicting expected patterns of disparity given nonselective extinction. Results indicate that (i) disparity and richness can remain coupled across extinctions even when selective extinction does not occur, (ii) simultaneous decreases in taxonomic diversity and disparity are insufficient evidence for extinction selectivity, and (iii) selectivity differs between background and mass extinction regimes.
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MORLAN, R. E. "Pleistocene Extinction Reexamined: Quaternary Extinctions." Science 228, no. 4701 (May 17, 1985): 870–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.228.4701.870.
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Finnegan, Seth, Christian M. Ø. Rasmussen, and David A. T. Harper. "Identifying the most surprising victims of mass extinction events: an example using Late Ordovician brachiopods." Biology Letters 13, no. 9 (September 2017): 20170400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2017.0400.
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Mass extinction events are recognized by increases in extinction rate and magnitude and, often, by changes in the selectivity of extinction. When considering the selective fingerprint of a particular event, not all taxon extinctions are equally informative: some would be expected even under a ‘background’ selectivity regime, whereas others would not and thus require special explanation. When evaluating possible drivers for the extinction event, the latter group is of particular interest. Here, we introduce a simple method for identifying these most surprising victims of extinction events by training models on background extinction intervals and using these models to make per-taxon assessments of ‘expected’ risk during the extinction interval. As an example, we examine brachiopod genus extinctions during the Late Ordovician Mass Extinction and show that extinction of genera in the deep-water ‘ Foliomena fauna’ was particularly unexpected given preceding Late Ordovician extinction patterns.
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Thackeray, J. Francis. "Rates of extinction in marine invertebrates: further comparison between background and mass extinctions." Paleobiology 16, no. 1 (1990): 22–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300009702.
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Prominent extinction “events” have been recognized from statistical analyses of marine invertebrate genera represented in Mesozoic and Cenozoic assemblages, contrasting with relatively low “background” extinction intensities measured in terms of a “percentage extinction” index. On a logarithmic scale, the slope of the relationship between time and extinction intensity for background extinctions is shown to be parallel to the slope obtained for most extinction events, characterized by intensities 100.35 above prevailing background levels. Although extinction intensities are variable, this study suggests that the magnitude of the factor(s) primarily associated with most mass extinctions in a 260-m.y. period (N = 9) need not necessarily have been very different from one event to another, an exception being the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous.
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Bush, Andrew M., Steve C. Wang, Jonathan L. Payne, and Noel A. Heim. "A framework for the integrated analysis of the magnitude, selectivity, and biotic effects of extinction and origination." Paleobiology 46, no. 1 (October 24, 2019): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2019.35.
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AbstractThe taxonomic and ecologic composition of Earth's biota has shifted dramatically through geologic time, with some clades going extinct while others diversified. Here, we derive a metric that quantifies the change in biotic composition due to extinction or origination and show that it equals the product of extinction/origination magnitude and selectivity (variation in magnitude among groups). We also define metrics that describe the extent to which a recovery (1) reinforced or reversed the effects of extinction on biotic composition and (2) changed composition in ways uncorrelated with the extinction. To demonstrate the approach, we analyzed an updated compilation of stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. We show that mass extinctions were not more selective than background intervals at the phylum level; rather, they tended to drive greater taxonomic change due to their higher magnitudes. Mass extinctions did not represent a separate class of events with respect to either strength of selectivity or effect. Similar observations apply to origination during recoveries from mass extinctions, and on average, extinction and origination were similarly selective and drove similar amounts of biotic change. Elevated origination during recoveries drove bursts of compositional change that varied considerably in effect. In some cases, origination partially reversed the effects of extinction, returning the biota toward the pre-extinction composition; in others, it reinforced the effects of the extinction, magnifying biotic change. Recoveries were as important as extinction events in shaping the marine biota, and their selectivity deserves systematic study alongside that of extinction.
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Mankun, Liu. "Narrating Extinctions for Survivance." Environmental Humanities 16, no. 2 (July 1, 2024): 331–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/22011919-11150155.
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Abstract This article navigates the obligatory relationship between extinction narratives and future imaginaries through the lens of an artist’s films. Taking Chinese artist Mao Chenyu’s works as case studies, the first part examines the notion of extinction that his video essay Becoming Father (2021) complicates through the perspective of rice (Oryza sativa) and humans in Dongting Lake. It reveals adaptive evolution, hetero-reproduction, and geontopower as three political regimes where extinctive pressures accumulate through the erosion of biocultural inheritability. The second part engages with this tripartite politics by questing for alternative models of inheritance from Mao’s ethnographic films. It centers on how the artist invests in shamanist, geomantic, and animist practices to envision alternative modes of inheritance. Based on this, the article argues that the conception of extinction beyond mass death demands counterextinction measures to aim for more than survival. This volition can be summarized by the term survivance, an ethical way of living in end-times. It concludes by contextualizing Mao’s work in post–Green Revolution China, where a logic of survival has driven mass extinction. On this basis, it proposes that extinction studies could benefit from cultivating a historical consciousness, especially regarding how extinctions are connected to the ideological underpinning of specific Anthropocene processes.
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Raup, David M. "Extinction from a paleontological perspective." European Review 1, no. 3 (July 1993): 207–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1062798700000582.
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Extinction of widespread species is common in evolutionary time (millions of years) but rare in ecological time (hundreds or thousands of years). In the fossil record, there appears to be a smooth continuum between background and mass extinction; and the clustering of extinctions at mass extinctions cannot be explained by the chance coincidence of independent events. Although some extinction is selective, much is apparently random in that survivors have no recognizable superiority over victims. Extinction certainly plays an important role in evolution, but whether it is constructive or destructive has not yet been determined.
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Wagler, Ron. "The Anthropocene Mass Extinction: An Emerging Curriculum Theme for Science Educators." American Biology Teacher 73, no. 2 (February 1, 2011): 78–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/abt.2011.73.2.5.
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There have been five past great mass extinctions during the history of Earth. There is an ever-growing consensus within the scientific community that we have entered a sixth mass extinction. Human activities are associated directly or indirectly with nearly every aspect of this extinction. This article presents an overview of the five past great mass extinctions; an overview of the current Anthropocene mass extinction; past and present human activities associated with the current Anthropocene mass extinction; current and future rates of species extinction; and broad science-curriculum topics associated with the current Anthropocene mass extinction that can be used by science educators. These broad topics are organized around the major global, anthropogenic direct drivers of habitat modification, fragmentation, and destruction; overexploitation of species; the spread of invasive species and genes; pollution; and climate change.
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Foote, Michael. "Extinction and quiescence in marine animal genera." Paleobiology 33, no. 2 (2007): 261–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/06068.1.
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If last appearances of marine animal genera are taken as reasonable proxies for true extinctions, then there is appreciable global extinction in every stage of the Phanerozoic. If, instead, backsmearing of extinctions by incomplete sampling is explicitly taken into consideration, a different view of extinction emerges, in which the pattern of extinction is much more volatile and in which quiescent time spans—with little or no global extinction for several million years—are punctuated by major extinction events that are even more extreme than is generally thought. Independent support for this alternative view comes from analysis of genus occurrence data in the Paleobiology Database, which agrees with previous estimates of sampling probability and implies that offsets between extinction and last appearance of one or more stages are quite probable.
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Raup, David M. "Large-body impact and extinction in the Phanerozoic." Paleobiology 18, no. 1 (1992): 80–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300012227.
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The kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species is used to investigate large-body impact as a cause of species extinction. Current estimates of Phanerozoic impact rates are combined with the kill curve to produce an impact-kill curve, which predicts extinction levels from crater diameter, on the working assumption that impacts are responsible for all “pulsed” extinctions. By definition, pulsed extinction includes the approximately 60% of Phanerozoic extinctions that occurred in short-lived events having extinction rates greater than 5%. The resulting impact-kill curve is credible, thus justifying more thorough testing of the impact-extinction hypothesis. Such testing is possible but requires an exhaustive analysis of radiometric dating of Phanerozoic impact events.
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Campagna, Claudio, Daniel Guevara, and Bernard Le Boeuf. "De-scenting Extinction: The Promise of De-extinction May Hasten Continuing Extinctions." Hastings Center Report 47 (July 2017): S48—S53. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hast.752.
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Kerr, R. A. "PALEONTOLOGY: Mass Extinctions Face Downsizing, Extinction." Science 293, no. 5532 (August 10, 2001): 1037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.293.5532.1037.
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Holland, Steven M. "The Stratigraphy of Mass Extinctions and Recoveries." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 48, no. 1 (May 30, 2020): 75–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-054827.
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Interpretations of the tempo of mass extinctions and recoveries often rely on the distribution of fossils in a stratigraphic column. These interpretations are generally compromised when they are not based on a knowledge of marine ecological gradients and sequence-stratigraphic architecture. Crucially, last and first occurrences of species do not record times of extinction and origination. A face-value interpretation of the stratigraphic record leads to incorrect inferences of pulsed extinction, underestimates of the duration of mass extinction, and overestimates of local recovery times. An understanding of the processes of extinction and recovery is substantially improved by knowledge of the distribution of species along marine environmental gradients, interpreting sequence-stratigraphic architecture to show how those gradients are sampled through time, and sampling along regional transects along depositional dip. Doing so suggests that most ancient mass extinctions were substantially longer and local recoveries substantially shorter than generally thought. ▪ The concepts that let geologists find petroleum allow paleontologists to reinterpret ancient mass extinctions and their recoveries. ▪ Most ancient mass extinctions were longer than the fossil record suggests, lasting hundreds of thousands of years to a few million years. ▪ Ancient recoveries from mass extinctions were shorter than thought and likely overlapped with extinction during a period of turnover.
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Banerjee, Amit, and George E. Boyajian. "Selectivity of foraminiferal extinction in the late Eocene." Paleobiology 23, no. 3 (1997): 347–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300019722.
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Late Eocene foraminiferal extinction shows diverse patterns of selective morphologic and latitudinal extinction. Taxa with discoidal shape, calcareous tests, and narrow and low-latitudinal ranges are at significantly greater risk of extinction. Elevated extinction intensities in calcareous tests are mainly due to the presence of larger benthic foraminifera that evolved in late Paleocene and diversified through the lower to middle Eocene. Selectivity of late Eocene foraminiferal extinction indicates that this extinction event was not a globally uniform event. Although this result does not verify an extraterrestrial impact or any other proposed cause of extinction, it does constrain the causes of late Eocene extinction. Furthermore, the geography of late Eocene foraminiferal extinction, and previously studied Cenomanian/Turonian extinction, demonstrates that mass extinctions exhibit different patterns of selectivity.
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Valentine, James W., and Timothy D. Walker. "Extinctions in a model taxonomic hierarchy." Paleobiology 13, no. 2 (1987): 193–207. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300008745.
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A computer model of background and mass extinctions in a taxonomic hierarchy has been used to study the effects of different extinction patterns in a search for clues as to the causes of actual extinction events. Model taxa at four levels were built up from speciation events in adaptive space according to rules of origination which seem plausible biologically. The frequency distribution of species among the three higher taxonomic levels in the model is similar to that in living marine taxa which have good fossil records. Three mass extinction patterns were imposed on the model after species diversity had attained equilibrium (i.e., when speciation = background extinction): random; bloc (contiguous niches were cleared); and clade (all members of selected higher taxa were removed). Effects on the taxonomic profile varied with pattern. Four of the five historical mass extinctions resemble the effects of the random pattern. End-Permian families were harder hit than those in the random model, but this may be a result of an extremely high species extinction level. It is concluded that the effect of extinctions on the taxonomic hierarchy provides a tool to help in understanding extinction causes.
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Lockwood, Rowan. "Beyond the Big Five: Extinctions as Experiments in the History of Life." Paleontological Society Papers 14 (October 2008): 249–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1089332600001716.
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The past century has witnessed a number of significant breakthroughs in the study of extinction in the fossil record, from the discovery of a bolide impact as the probable cause of the end-Cretaceous (K/T) mass extinction to the designation of the “Big 5” mass extinction events. Here, I summarize the major themes that have emerged from the past thirty years of extinction research and highlight a number of promising directions for future research. These directions explore a central theme—the evolutionary consequences of extinction— and focus on three broad research areas: the effects of selectivity, the importance of recovery intervals, and the influence of spatial patterns. Examples of topics explored include the role that trait variation plays in survivorship, the comparative effects of extinctions of varying magnitudes on evolutionary patterns, the re-establishment of macroevolutionary patterns in the aftermath of extinction, and the extent to which spatial autocorrelation affects extinction patterns. These topics can be approached by viewing extinctions as repeated natural experiments in the history of life and developing hypotheses to explicitly test across multiple events. Exploring the effects of extinction also requires an interdisciplinary approach, applying evolutionary, ecological, geochronological, geochemical, tectonic, and paleoclimatic tools to both extinction and recovery intervals.
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Bromham, Lindell, Robert Lanfear, Phillip Cassey, Gillian Gibb, and Marcel Cardillo. "Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 279, no. 1744 (August 2012): 4024–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2012.1437.
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Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.
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Turvey, Samuel T., and Susanne A. Fritz. "The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 366, no. 1577 (September 12, 2011): 2564–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2011.0020.
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Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.
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Gray, Alan. "The ecology of plant extinction: rates, traits and island comparisons." Oryx 53, no. 3 (May 21, 2018): 424–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0030605318000315.
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AbstractAlthough there is increasing evidence for a sixth mass extinction, relatively few plants have been officially declared extinct (<150 are categorized as Extinct on the IUCN Red List). The Red List, although the data are neither perfect nor comprehensive, is perhaps the most reliable indicator of extinction and extinction threat. Here, data collated from the Red List, of Extinct plant species and of Critically Endangered plant species with populations in decline, are examined to address three questions: (1) How do background, continental, and island plant extinction rates compare? (2) Are biological and physical island parameters associated with plant extinction? (3) Are any plant traits associated with extinction and if so do these differ between islands and continents? The background rate for plant extinction is estimated to be 0.05–0.13 E/MSY (extinctions per million species-years) and the Red List data are above these background rates and also above a higher extinction rate of 0.15 E/MSY. The data indicate that plant extinctions are dominated by insular species. The Red List extinction data are associated with lower competitive ability and lower climate change velocities, and anthropogenic factors. Analyses using only Critically Endangered species whose populations are in decline (arguably the species most at risk of extinction in the near future) largely mirrors this pattern and suggests that drivers of plant extinction may have an inertia that could last well into the future.
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McKinney, Michael L. "Extinction selectivity among lower taxa: gradational patterns and rarefaction error in extinction estimates." Paleobiology 21, no. 3 (1995): 300–313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300013312.
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Documenting past environmental disturbances will provide a very incomplete explanation of extinctions until more data on intrinsic (e.g., phylogenetic) responses to disturbances are collected. Taxonomic selectivity can be used to infer phylogenetic inheritance of extinction-biasing traits. Selectivity patterns among higher taxa, such as between mammals and bivalves, are well documented. Selectivity patterns among lower taxa (genus, species) have great potential for understanding the dynamics underlying higher taxic turnover. Two echinoid data sets, of fossil and living taxa, indicate that species extinctions do not occur randomly within genera. Reverse rarefaction estimates of past species extinction rates assume random species extinction within higher taxa, so these widely cited extinction estimates may be inaccurate. Revised estimates based on a simulated curve imply that past species extinctions rates may be 6%–15% lower than previously cited. Possible causes for the observed selectivity patterns are discussed. These include nonrandom phylogenetic nesting of species with traits often cited as enhancing extinction vulnerability, into certain taxa. Such traits include low abundance, large body size, narrow niche breadth, and many others. Phylogenetic nesting of extinction-biasing traits at many taxonomic levels does not predict that a dichotomy of mass-background selectivity based on a few traits will occur. Instead, it predicts patterns of selectivity at many taxonomic levels, and at many spatio-temporal scales.
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Hubbard, Alan E., and Norman L. Gilinsky. "Mass Extinctions as Statistical Phenomena: An Examination of the Evidence Using χ2 Tests and Bootstrapping." Paleobiology 18, no. 2 (March 1992): 148–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300013944.
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Although much natural historical evidence has been adduced in support of the occurrence of several mass extinctions during the Phanerozoic, unambiguous statistical confirmation of the mass extinction phenomenon has remained elusive. Using bootstrapping techniques that have not previously been applied to the study of mass extinction, we have amassed strong or very strong statistical evidence for mass extinctions (see text for definitions) during the Late Ordovician, Late Permian, and Late Cretaceous. Bootstrapping therefore verifies three of the mass extinction events that were proposed by Raup and Sepkoski (1982). A small amount of bootstrapping evidence is also presented for mass extinctions in the Induan (Triassic) and Coniacean (Cretaceous) Stages, but high overall turnover rates (including high origination) in the Induan and uncertain estimates of the temporal duration of the Coniacean force us to conclude that the evidence is not compelling.We also present the results of more liberal X2 tests of the differences between expected and observed numbers of familial extinctions for stratigraphic stages. In addition to verifying the mass extinctions identified using bootstrapping, these analyses suggest that several stages that could not be verified as mass extinction stages using bootstrapping (including the last three in the Devonian, and the Norian Stage of the Triassic) should still be regarded as candidates for mass extinction. Further analysis will be required to test these stages in more detail.
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Hanna, Emily, and Marcel Cardillo. "Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas." Biology Letters 10, no. 4 (April 2014): 20131066. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2013.1066.
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Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.
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Fordham, Damien A., Barry W. Brook, Conrad J. Hoskin, Robert L. Pressey, Jeremy VanDerWal, and Stephen E. Williams. "Extinction debt from climate change for frogs in the wet tropics." Biology Letters 12, no. 10 (October 2016): 20160236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0236.
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The effect of twenty-first-century climate change on biodiversity is commonly forecast based on modelled shifts in species ranges, linked to habitat suitability. These projections have been coupled with species–area relationships (SAR) to infer extinction rates indirectly as a result of the loss of climatically suitable areas and associated habitat. This approach does not model population dynamics explicitly, and so accepts that extinctions might occur after substantial (but unknown) delays—an extinction debt. Here we explicitly couple bioclimatic envelope models of climate and habitat suitability with generic life-history models for 24 species of frogs found in the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). We show that (i) as many as four species of frogs face imminent extinction by 2080, due primarily to climate change; (ii) three frogs face delayed extinctions; and (iii) this extinction debt will take at least a century to be realized in full. Furthermore, we find congruence between forecast rates of extinction using SARs, and demographic models with an extinction lag of 120 years. We conclude that SAR approaches can provide useful advice to conservation on climate change impacts, provided there is a good understanding of the time lags over which delayed extinctions are likely to occur.
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Kocsis, Ádám T., Carl J. Reddin, and Wolfgang Kiessling. "The biogeographical imprint of mass extinctions." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285, no. 1878 (May 2, 2018): 20180232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.0232.
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Mass extinctions are defined by extinction rates significantly above background levels and have had substantial consequences for the evolution of life. Geographically selective extinctions, subsequent originations and species redistributions may have changed global biogeographical structure, but quantification of this change is lacking. In order to assess quantitatively the biogeographical impact of mass extinctions, we outline time-traceable bioregions for benthic marine species across the Phanerozoic using a compositional network. Mass extinction events are visually recognizable in the geographical depiction of bioregions. The end-Permian extinction stands out with a severe reduction of provinciality. Time series of biogeographical turnover represent a novel aspect of the analysis of mass extinctions, confirming concentration of changes in the geographical distribution of benthic marine life.
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Nagata, Hisashi. "Extinction, the Causes of Extinction and the Conservation of Biodiversity." Journal of Disaster Research 3, no. 3 (June 1, 2008): 166–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2008.p0166.
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Over 25% of species are currently categorized as threatened. Extinction is a natural process in organism evolution, and 99% of all organisms that have thus far existed are already extinct. Current extinction rates, however, is progressing at least 2,500 times faster than in the past. Ongoing extinction is so fast, in fact, that organisms may not be able to adapt environment and to evolve. Current biodiversity crisis is called “sixth extinction” because it is severer than five geological mass extinctions. Habitat destruction, overexploitation, and invasion of species through human activities are currently the major causes of species extinction. Global warming is also expected to pose a considerable threat to Earth’s organisms. I briefly review the nature of species extinction, its processes, causes, theoretical background, and ongoing threats.
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Westermann, Gerd EG. "Modes of extinction, pseudo-extinction and distribution in Middle Jurassic ammonites: terminology." Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences 38, no. 2 (February 1, 2001): 187–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/e00-046.
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Mid-Jurassic Ammonitina (Cephalopoda, Mollusca) provide good examples of true and apparent "extinctions" (i.e., taxon or clade disappearances) at the local, regional, and global scales. A terminology is presented. Extinction is the termination of a phylogenetic lineage or entire clade (not of local demes or regional populations). Extinction was often preceded by progressive range contraction that resulted in diachronous regional disappearance ("extirpation") and occurred with the elimination of the last refuge. Other range contractions, however, were not terminal, but were followed by renewed expansions, resulting in temporary absence of the lineage over part of its known range only, due to pseudo-extinction. Some lineages, called Lazarus taxa, apparently disappeared entirely for short or extended periods by pseudotermination (causing a "phylogenetic hiatus"). This is an extreme form of pseudo-extinction with unknown refuge due to small size and (or) unsuitable facies and location. Lineage or clade reappearance may be in the form of new species, whose relationship to ancestral taxa has been problematic. Some disappearances can be explained with displacive competition, where the replacement taxon is either of endemic origin or an immigrant. Recent research in previously underexplored field areas has closed some of the gaps of documentation by finding the refuges. Range contractions and expansions, together with their regional disappearances and pseudo-extinctions, including pseudotermination, were often causally related to sea-level changes, especially eustasy. Most true extinctions, however, cannot be identified precisely, because they occurred in small populations and (or) refuges. Extinctions presumably did not coincide with global geoevents.
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Stanley, Steven M. "Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 42 (October 3, 2016): E6325—E6334. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613094113.
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Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor–Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ∼81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90–96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed.
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Ceballos, Gerardo, Paul R. Ehrlich, Anthony D. Barnosky, Andrés García, Robert M. Pringle, and Todd M. Palmer. "Accelerated modern human–induced species losses: Entering the sixth mass extinction." Science Advances 1, no. 5 (June 2015): e1400253. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1400253.
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The oft-repeated claim that Earth’s biota is entering a sixth “mass extinction” depends on clearly demonstrating that current extinction rates are far above the “background” rates prevailing between the five previous mass extinctions. Earlier estimates of extinction rates have been criticized for using assumptions that might overestimate the severity of the extinction crisis. We assess, using extremely conservative assumptions, whether human activities are causing a mass extinction. First, we use a recent estimate of a background rate of 2 mammal extinctions per 10,000 species per 100 years (that is, 2 E/MSY), which is twice as high as widely used previous estimates. We then compare this rate with the current rate of mammal and vertebrate extinctions. The latter is conservatively low because listing a species as extinct requires meeting stringent criteria. Even under our assumptions, which would tend to minimize evidence of an incipient mass extinction, the average rate of vertebrate species loss over the last century is up to 100 times higher than the background rate. Under the 2 E/MSY background rate, the number of species that have gone extinct in the last century would have taken, depending on the vertebrate taxon, between 800 and 10,000 years to disappear. These estimates reveal an exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity over the last few centuries, indicating that a sixth mass extinction is already under way. Averting a dramatic decay of biodiversity and the subsequent loss of ecosystem services is still possible through intensified conservation efforts, but that window of opportunity is rapidly closing.
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Nawrot, Rafał, Daniele Scarponi, Michele Azzarone, Troy A. Dexter, Kristopher M. Kusnerik, Jacalyn M. Wittmer, Alessandro Amorosi, and Michał Kowalewski. "Stratigraphic signatures of mass extinctions: ecological and sedimentary determinants." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 285, no. 1886 (September 12, 2018): 20181191. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2018.1191.
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Stratigraphic patterns of last occurrences (LOs) of fossil taxa potentially fingerprint mass extinctions and delineate rates and geometries of those events. Although empirical studies of mass extinctions recognize that random sampling causes LOs to occur earlier than the time of extinction (Signor–Lipps effect), sequence stratigraphic controls on the position of LOs are rarely considered. By tracing stratigraphic ranges of extant mollusc species preserved in the Holocene succession of the Po coastal plain (Italy), we demonstrated that, if mass extinction took place today, complex but entirely false extinction patterns would be recorded regionally due to shifts in local community composition and non-random variation in the abundance of skeletal remains, both controlled by relative sea-level changes. Consequently, rather than following an apparent gradual pattern expected from the Signor–Lipps effect, LOs concentrated within intervals of stratigraphic condensation and strong facies shifts mimicking sudden extinction pulses. Methods assuming uniform recovery potential of fossils falsely supported stepwise extinction patterns among studied species and systematically underestimated their stratigraphic ranges. Such effects of stratigraphic architecture, co-produced by ecological, sedimentary and taphonomic processes, can easily confound interpretations of the timing, duration and selectivity of mass extinction events. Our results highlight the necessity of accounting for palaeoenvironmental and sequence stratigraphic context when inferring extinction dynamics from the fossil record.
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Terzopoulou, Sofia, François Rigal, Robert J. Whittaker, Paulo A. V. Borges, and Kostas A. Triantis. "Drivers of extinction: the case of Azorean beetles." Biology Letters 11, no. 6 (June 2015): 20150273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0273.
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Oceanic islands host a disproportionately high fraction of endangered or recently extinct endemic species. We report on species extinctions among endemic Azorean beetles following 97% habitat loss since AD 1440. We infer extinctions from historical and contemporary records and examine the influence of three predictors: geographical range, habitat specialization and body size. Of 55 endemic beetle species investigated (out of 63), seven can be considered extinct. Single-island endemics (SIEs) were more prone to extinction than multi-island endemics. Within SIEs restricted to native habitat, larger species were more extinction-prone. We thus show a hierarchical path to extinction in Azorean beetles: species with small geographical range face extinction first, with the larger bodied ones being the most threatened. Our study provides a clear warning of the impact of habitat loss on island endemic biotas.
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Kauffinan, Erle G. "Common Patterns of Mass Extinction, Survival, and Recovery in Marine Environments: What Do They Tell Us About the Future?" Paleontological Society Special Publications 7 (1994): 437–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2475262200009709.
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Mass extinction is characterized by the loss of more than 50 percent of the world's species within a short interval of geologic time - months to as much as 3 million years (My). In the fossil record, these events have primarily been recorded from the marine realm. Three patterns of mass extinction have been described - catastrophic, stepwise, and graded extinction. Many well-studied extinction intervals contain elements of more than one pattern, suggesting that these biotic crises were caused by varied forcing mechanisms linked by complex environmental feedback loops. This hypothesis is supported by the discovery that the four well-studied Phanerozoic mass extinctions (Late Devonian, middle and terminal Cretaceous, Eocene-Oligocene boundary extinctions) share a number of physical, chemical, and biological characteristics in common. They consistently show stepwise extinction patterns linked to intervals of extraordinary fluctuations in the temperature, chemistry and structure of ocean-climate systems, at rates and magnitudes well above background levels. In addition, tropical ecosystems were the first and most severely affected, and more poleward, temperate biotas were mainly stressed during the later phases of the extinction interval. Evidence for these unusual environmental changes is derived from high-resolution (cm-scale) paleobiological, sedimentological, trace-element and stable-isotope analyses spanning mass extinction intervals. These dramatic environmental fluctuations were the immediate causes of mass extinction, as they progressively exceeded the survival limits of global biotas largely adapted to warm, equable, ice-free climates which characterized over 90 percent of Phanerozoic time. These environmental fluctuations probably represented feedback phenomena from more powerful, short-term forcing mechanisms which abruptly perturbed the structure of ocean-climate systems. Multiple impacts of extraterrestrial objects within short (<1-3 My) time intervals - so-called meteorite/comet showers - are the most logical candidates. This hypothesis is supported by physical and chemical evidence for impacts clustered around most, but not all, Mesozoic and Cenozoic mass extinctions.
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GRASBY, STEPHEN E., BENOIT BEAUCHAMP, DAVID P. G. BOND, PAUL B. WIGNALL, and HAMED SANEI. "Mercury anomalies associated with three extinction events (Capitanian Crisis, Latest Permian Extinction and the Smithian/Spathian Extinction) in NW Pangea." Geological Magazine 153, no. 2 (July 15, 2015): 285–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0016756815000436.
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AbstractStrata of Permian – Early Triassic age that include a record of three major extinction events (Capitanian Crisis, Latest Permian Extinction and the Smithian/Spathian Extinction) were examined at the Festningen section, Spitsbergen. Over thec. 12 Ma record examined, mercury in the sediments shows relatively constant background values of 0.005–0.010 μg g–1. However, there are notable spikes in Hg concentration over an order of magnitude above background associated with the three extinctions. The Hg/total organic carbon (TOC) ratio shows similar large spikes, indicating that they represent a true increase in Hg loading to the environment. We argue that these represent Hg loading events associated with enhanced Hg emissions from large igneous province (LIP) events that are synchronous with the extinctions. The Hg anomalies are consistent across the NW margin of Pangea, indicating that widespread mercury loading occurred. While this provides utility as a chemostratigraphic marker the Hg spikes may also indicate loading of toxic metals to the environment, a contributing cause to the mass extinction events.
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Collins, Catherine J., Nicolas J. Rawlence, Stefan Prost, Christian N. K. Anderson, Michael Knapp, R. Paul Scofield, Bruce C. Robertson, et al. "Extinction and recolonization of coastal megafauna following human arrival in New Zealand." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 281, no. 1786 (July 7, 2014): 20140097. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2014.0097.
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Extinctions can dramatically reshape biological communities. As a case in point, ancient mass extinction events apparently facilitated dramatic new evolutionary radiations of surviving lineages. However, scientists have yet to fully understand the consequences of more recent biological upheaval, such as the megafaunal extinctions that occurred globally over the past 50 kyr. New Zealand was the world's last large landmass to be colonized by humans, and its exceptional archaeological record documents a vast number of vertebrate extinctions in the immediate aftermath of Polynesian arrival approximately AD 1280. This recently colonized archipelago thus presents an outstanding opportunity to test for rapid biological responses to extinction. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) analysis to show that extinction of an endemic sea lion lineage ( Phocarctos spp.) apparently facilitated a subsequent northward range expansion of a previously subantarctic-limited lineage. This finding parallels a similar extinction–replacement event in penguins ( Megadyptes spp.). In both cases, an endemic mainland clade was completely eliminated soon after human arrival, and then replaced by a genetically divergent clade from the remote subantarctic region, all within the space of a few centuries. These data suggest that ecological and demographic processes can play a role in constraining lineage distributions, even for highly dispersive species, and highlight the potential for dynamic biological responses to extinction.
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Christie, Max, Steven M. Holland, and Andrew M. Bush. "Contrasting the ecological and taxonomic consequences of extinction." Paleobiology 39, no. 4 (2013): 538–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/12033.
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Extinction in the fossil record is most often measured by the percentage of taxa (species, genera, families, etc.) that go extinct in a certain time interval. This is a measure of taxonomic loss, but previous work has indicated that taxonomic loss may be decoupled from the ecological effects of an extinction. To understand the role extinction plays in ecological change, extinction should also be measured in terms of loss of functional diversity. This study tests whether ecological changes increase correspondingly with taxonomic changes during the Late Ordovician M4/M5 extinction, the Ordovician/Silurian mass extinction, and the Late Devonian mass extinction. All three extinctions are evaluated with regional data sets from the eastern United States. Ecological effects are measured by classifying organisms into ecological lifestyles, which are groups based on ecological function rather than evolutionary history. The taxonomic and ecological effects of each extinction are evaluated with additive diversity partitioning, detrended correspondence analysis, and relative abundance distributions. Although the largest taxonomic changes occur in the Ordovician/Silurian extinction, the largest ecological changes occur in the Late Devonian extinction. These results suggest that the ecological consequences of extinction need to be considered in addition to the taxonomic effects of extinction.
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Dai, Xu, and Haijun Song. "Toward an understanding of cosmopolitanism in deep time: a case study of ammonoids from the middle Permian to the Middle Triassic." Paleobiology 46, no. 4 (September 21, 2020): 533–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2020.40.
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AbstractCosmopolitanism occurred recurrently during the geologic past, especially after mass extinctions, but the underlying mechanisms remain poorly known. Three theoretical models, not mutually exclusive, can lead to cosmopolitanism: (1) selective extinction in endemic taxa, (2) endemic taxa becoming cosmopolitan after the extinction and (3) an increase in the number of newly originated cosmopolitan taxa after extinction. We analyzed an updated occurrence dataset including 831 middle Permian to Middle Triassic ammonoid genera and used two network methods to distinguish major episodes of ammonoid cosmopolitanism during this time interval. Then, we tested the three proposed models in these case studies. Our results confirm that at least two remarkable cosmopolitanism events occurred after the Permian–Triassic and late Smithian (Early Triassic) extinctions, respectively. Partitioned analyses of survivors and newcomers revealed that the immediate cosmopolitanism event (Griesbachian) after the Permian–Triassic event can be attributed to endemic genera becoming cosmopolitan (model 2) and an increase in the number of newly originated cosmopolitan genera after the extinction (model 3). Late Smithian cosmopolitanism is caused by selective extinction in endemic taxa (model 1) and an increase in the number of newly originated cosmopolitan genera (model 3). We found that the survivors of the Permian–Triassic mass extinction did not show a wider geographic range, suggesting that this mass extinction is nonselective among the biogeographic ranges, while late Smithian survivors exhibit a wide geographic range, indicating selective survivorship among cosmopolitan genera. These successive cosmopolitanism events during severe extinctions are associated with marked environmental upheavals such as rapid climate changes and oceanic anoxic events, suggesting that environmental fluctuations play a significant role in cosmopolitanism.
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Lombardi, Marco. "Optimal extinction measurements." Astronomy & Astrophysics 615 (July 2018): A174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201832769.
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In this paper we present XNICER, an optimized multi-band extinction technique based on the extreme deconvolution of the intrinsic colors of objects observed through a molecular cloud. XNICER follows a rigorous statistical approach and provides the full Bayesian inference of the extinction for each observed object. Photometric errors in both the training control field and in the science field are properly taken into account. XNICER improves over the known extinction methods and is computationally fast enough to be used on large datasets of objects. Our tests and simulations show that this method is able to reduce the noise associated with extinction measurements by a factor 2 with respect to the previous NICER algorithm, and it has no evident bias even at high extinctions.
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Janevski, G. Alex, and Tomasz K. Baumiller. "Evidence for extinction selectivity throughout the marine invertebrate fossil record." Paleobiology 35, no. 4 (2009): 553–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/0094-8373-35.4.553.
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The fossil record has been used to show that in some geologic intervals certain traits of taxa may increase their survivability, and therefore that the risk of extinction is not randomly distributed among taxa. It has also been suggested that traits that buffer against extinction in background times do not confer the same resistance during mass extinction events. An open question is whether at any time in geologic history extinction probabilities were randomly distributed among taxa. Here we use a method for detecting random extinction to demonstrate that during both background and mass extinction times, extinction of marine invertebrate genera has been nonrandom with respect to species richness categories of genera. A possible cause for this nonrandom extinction is selective clustering of extinctions in genera consisting of species which possess extinction-biasing traits. Other potential causes considered here include geographic selectivity, increased extinction susceptibility for species in species-rich genera, or biases related to taxonomic practice and/or sampling heterogeneity. An important theoretical result is that extinction selectivity at the species level cannot be smoothly extrapolated upward to genera; the appearance of random genus extinction with respect to species richness of genera results when extinction has been highly selective at the species level.
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Reddin, Carl J., Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling. "Climate change and the latitudinal selectivity of ancient marine extinctions." Paleobiology 45, no. 1 (November 23, 2018): 70–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2018.34.
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AbstractGeologically rapid climate change is anticipated to increase extinction risk nonuniformly across the Earth's surface. Tropical species may be more vulnerable than temperate species to current climate warming because of high tropical climate velocities and reduced seawater oxygen levels. To test whether rapid warming indeed preferentially increased the extinction risk of tropical fossil taxa, we combine a robust statistical assessment of latitudinal extinction selectivity (LES) with the dominant views on climate change occurring at ancient extinction crises. Using a global data set of marine fossil occurrences, we assess extinction rates for tropical and temperate genera, applying log ratios to assess effect size and Akaike weights for model support. Among the classical “big five” mass extinction episodes, the end-Permian mass extinction exhibits temperate preference of extinctions, whereas the Late Devonian and end-Triassic selectively hit tropical genera. Simple links between the inferred direction of climate change and LES are idiosyncratic, both during crisis and background intervals. More complex models, including sampling patterns and changes in the latitudinal distribution of continental shelf area, show tropical LES to be generally associated with raised tropical heat and temperate LES with global cold temperatures. With implications for the future, our paper demonstrates the consistency of high tropical temperatures, habitat loss, and the capacity of both to interact in generating geographic patterns in extinctions.
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Hansen, Thor A. "Early Tertiary radiation of marine molluscs and the long-term effects of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction." Paleobiology 14, no. 1 (1988): 37–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300011787.
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The Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction reduced the gamma diversity of molluscs on the U.S. Gulf Coast from over 500 species in the late Maastrichtian to a little over 100 species in the early Danian. Gamma (total) diversity increased in a series of steps that generally tracked temperature, to a high of around 400 species in the late Middle Eocene, at which time diversity declined in the Late Eocene–Oligocene extinctions. The molluscan radiation occurred in at least two distinct phases: 1) an Initial Radiation Phase in which certain families underwent unusually high speciation, apparently filling ecological niches vacated by the extinction, followed by extinction of many of the species in these families in the late Danian; and, 2) a Secondary Radiation Phase where gamma diversity gradually increased and new genera gradually appeared. The fact that the gamma diversity of molluscs did not reach pre-extinction levels before the next extinction in the Late Eocene suggests that molluscan faunas may spend much of their evolutionary time recovering from these extinctions.
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Raup, David M. "Large-body impact: the least unlikely cause of pulsed extinction." Paleontological Society Special Publications 6 (1992): 240. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s2475262200008005.
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In the past year, a strong consensus in the geological community has developed in favor of comet or asteroid impact as the ultimate cause of the K-T mass extinction, although many paleontologists remain doubtful. The discovery of tektites and craters with argon-argon ages matching the K-T boundary has finally removed the “smoking gun” problem. It is important, therefore, to evaluate large-body impact as a possible cause of other Phanerozoic extinctions, and to do so as carefully as possible before enthusiasm for the K-T success overwhelms objectivity in this research area.Approximately 60% of all species extinctions in the Phanerozoic occurred in “pulsed” extinctions, defined as ecologically and geographically pervasive episodes in which the number of species going extinct in a geologically short interval far exceeds any reasonable estimate based on chance coincidence of independent events. In addition to the well-known mass extinctions, pulsed extinctions often mark system, series, and stage boundaries, and probably some zonal boundaries.To be plausible, any proposed cause of pulsed extinctions must be (1) geographically pervasive (regional or global), (2) effective in diverse habitats, and (3) relatively quick-acting (to inhibit survival of species by migration or adaptation). The stresses causing the extinctions must be sufficiently severe and rare to be beyond the reach of natural selection, so that species do not have prior opportunity to evolve defenses.These requirements severely limit the possibilities to phenomena that occur on time scales of one million to tens of millions of years, far longer than the tens or hundreds of years available for study by traditional actualistic approaches. In view of the Phanerozoic record, it is not surprising that the earth has not experienced a pulsed extinction in historic times (excluding human influences). This suggests that extinction is one case where the present is a not the key to the past, and a full exploration of the problem will require a substantial re-ordering of thinking.Furthermore, because pulsed extinctions involve geographically widespread species (as well as restricted taxa), and because extinction of widespread species may be qualitatively different from that of local endemics, the common extrapolation from studies of extinction in local populations is risky.Of the many phenomena suggested as causes of pulsed extinction, large-body impact is the one that most nearly satisfies the requirements, and is therefore the least unlikely of the candidates. Temporal distribution is especially critical. Currently accepted flux estimates for comet and asteroid impacts are in the appropriate frequency range to explain the extinction record, but testing the hypothesis will depend on better radiometric dating of the 100+ craters and other confirmed impact events.
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Sepkoski, J. John. "Some Implications of Mass Extinction for the Evolution of Complex Life." Symposium - International Astronomical Union 112 (1985): 223–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0074180900146558.
Full textAbstract:
Extinction has the destructive effect of eliminating established lineages from an evolutionary system and the constructive effect of vacating ecospace into which new lineages can evolve. Mass extinctions, which are times of unusually intense extinction, have been consistently followed by major radiations of new lineages. Extraterrestrial impacts associated with extinction events and a periodic recurrence of these events implicates an extraterrestrial forcing mechanism as the ultimate cause of mass extinction. This suggests that the extraplanetary environment has played an important, active role in the development of complex life on Earth.
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Finnegan, Seth, Jonathan L. Payne, and Steve C. Wang. "The Red Queen revisited: reevaluating the age selectivity of Phanerozoic marine genus extinctions." Paleobiology 34, no. 3 (2008): 318–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/07008.1.
Full textAbstract:
Extinction risk is inversely related to genus age (time since first appearance) in most intervals of the Phanerozoic marine fossil record, in apparent contradiction to the macroevolutionary Red Queen's Hypothesis, which posits that extinction risk is independent of taxon age. Age-dependent increases in the mean species richness and geographic range of genera have been invoked to reconcile this genus-level observation with the presumed prevalence of Red Queen dynamics at the species level. Here we test these explanations with data from the Paleobiology Database. Multiple logistic regression demonstrates that the association of extinction risk with genus age is not adequately explained by species richness or geographic range: there is a residual association between age and extinction risk even when range and richness effects are accounted for. Throughout most of the Phanerozoic the age selectivity gradient is highest among the youngest age cohorts, whereas there is no association between age and extinction risk among older age cohorts. Some of the apparent age selectivity of extinction in the global fauna is attributable to differences in extinction rate among taxonomic groups, but extinction risk declines with genus age even within most taxonomic orders. Notable exceptions to this pattern include the Cambrian-Ordovician, latest Permian, Triassic, and Paleocene intervals. The association of age with extinction risk could reflect sampling heterogeneity or taxonomic practice more than biological reality, but at present it is difficult to evaluate or correct for such biases. Alternatively, the pattern may reflect consistent extinction selectivity on some as-yet unidentified covariate of genus age. Although this latter explanation is not compatible with a Red Queen model if most genus extinctions have resulted from biological interactions, it may be applicable if most genus extinctions have instead been caused by recurrent physical disturbances that repeatedly impose similar selective pressures.
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Pires, Mathias M., Brian D. Rankin, Daniele Silvestro, and Tiago B. Quental. "Diversification dynamics of mammalian clades during the K–Pg mass extinction." Biology Letters 14, no. 9 (September 2018): 20180458. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2018.0458.
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The Cretaceous/Palaeogene (K–Pg) episode is an iconic mass extinction, in which the diversity of numerous clades abruptly declined. However, the responses of individual clades to mass extinctions may be more idiosyncratic than previously understood. Here, we examine the diversification dynamics of the three major mammalian clades in North America across the K–Pg. Our results show that these clades responded in dramatically contrasting ways to the K–Pg event. Metatherians underwent a sudden rise in extinction rates shortly after the K–Pg, whereas declining origination rates first halted diversification and later drove the loss of diversity in multituberculates. Eutherians experienced high taxonomic turnover near the boundary, with peaks in both origination and extinction rates. These findings indicate that the effects of geological episodes on diversity are context dependent and that mass extinctions can affect the diversification of clades by independently altering the extinction regime, the origination regime or both.
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Schoene, Blair, Michael P. Eddy, Kyle M. Samperton, C. Brenhin Keller, Gerta Keller, Thierry Adatte, and Syed F. R. Khadri. "U-Pb constraints on pulsed eruption of the Deccan Traps across the end-Cretaceous mass extinction." Science 363, no. 6429 (February 21, 2019): 862–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aau2422.
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Temporal correlation between some continental flood basalt eruptions and mass extinctions has been proposed to indicate causality, with eruptive volatile release driving environmental degradation and extinction. We tested this model for the Deccan Traps flood basalt province, which, along with the Chicxulub bolide impact, is implicated in the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) extinction approximately 66 million years ago. We estimated Deccan eruption rates with uranium-lead (U-Pb) zircon geochronology and resolved four high-volume eruptive periods. According to this model, maximum eruption rates occurred before and after the K-Pg extinction, with one such pulse initiating tens of thousands of years prior to both the bolide impact and extinction. These findings support extinction models that incorporate both catastrophic events as drivers of environmental deterioration associated with the K-Pg extinction and its aftermath.
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Boyajian, George E. "Taxon age and selectivity of extinction." Paleobiology 17, no. 1 (1991): 49–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0094837300010344.
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Taxon-age distributions were compiled for families of marine animals surviving or becoming extinct in each stage of the Phanerozoic. I demonstrate, through the use of a modified bootstrap analysis, that there is no difference between the longevity of families becoming extinct during times of background extinction and times of mass extinction. In both mass and background extinction intervals the mean age of families that become extinct is 2 standard deviations below the geometric mean taxon age of families available for extinction. Young families are more susceptible to extinction, perhaps as the result of lower species richness or of occupying a smaller geographic range. There is no tendency during mass extinctions toward loss of families with different taxon ages other than those that become extinct during background times. Thus, in terms of family survival, mass extinction appears to be an exaggeration of processes of background extinction.
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Sclafani, Judith A., Curtis R. Congreve, Andrew Z. Krug, and Mark E. Patzkowsky. "Effects of mass extinction and recovery dynamics on long-term evolutionary trends: a morphological study of Strophomenida (Brachiopoda) across the Late Ordovician mass extinction." Paleobiology 44, no. 4 (August 31, 2018): 603–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/pab.2018.24.
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AbstractMass extinctions affect the history of life by decimating existing diversity and ecological structure and creating new evolutionary and ecological pathways. Both the loss of diversity during these events and the rebound in diversity following extinction had a profound effect on Phanerozoic evolutionary trends. Phylogenetic trees can be used to robustly assess the evolutionary implications of extinction and origination.We examine both extinction and origination during the Late Ordovician mass extinction. This mass extinction was the second largest in terms of taxonomic loss but did not appear to radically alter Paleozoic marine assemblages. We focus on the brachiopod order Strophomenida, whose evolutionary relationships have been recently revised, to explore the disconnect between the processes that drive taxonomic loss and those that restructure ecological communities.A possible explanation for this disconnect is if extinction and origination were random with respect to morphology. We define morphospace using principal coordinates analysis (PCO) of character data from 61 Ordovician–Devonian taxa and their 45 ancestral nodes, defined by a most parsimonious reconstruction in Mesquite. A bootstrap of the centroid of PCO values indicates that genera were randomly removed from morphospace by the Late Ordovician mass extinction, and new Silurian genera were clustered within a smaller previously unoccupied region of morphospace. Diversification remained morphologically constrained throughout the Silurian and into the Devonian. This suggests that the recovery from the Late Ordovician mass extinction resulted in a long-term shift in strophomenide evolution. More broadly, recovery intervals may hold clues to understanding the evolutionary impact of mass extinctions.
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Wang, Steve C., Aaron E. Zimmerman, Brendan S. McVeigh, Philip J. Everson, and Heidi Wong. "Confidence intervals for the duration of a mass extinction." Paleobiology 38, no. 2 (2012): 265–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1666/11016.1.
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A key question in studies of mass extinctions is whether the extinction was a sudden or gradual event. This question may be addressed by examining the locations of fossil occurrences in a stratigraphic section. However, the fossil record can be consistent with both sudden and gradual extinctions. Rather than being limited to rejecting or not rejecting a particular scenario, ideally we should estimate therangeof extinction scenarios that is consistent with the fossil record. In other words, rather than testing the simplified distinction of “sudden versus gradual,” we should be asking, “How gradual?”In this paper we answer the question “How gradual could the extinction have been?” by developing a confidence interval for the duration of a mass extinction. We define the duration of the extinction as the time or stratigraphic thickness between the first and last taxon to go extinct, which we denote by Δ. For example, we would like to be able to say with 90% confidence that the extinction took place over a duration of 0.3 to 1.1 million years, or 24 to 57 meters of stratigraphic thickness. Our method does not deny the possibility of a truly simultaneous extinction; rather, in this framework, a simultaneous extinction is one whose value of Δ is equal to zero years or meters.We present an algorithm to derive such estimates and show that it produces valid confidence intervals. We illustrate its use with data from Late Permian ostracodes from Meishan, China, and Late Cretaceous ammonites from Seymour Island, Antarctica.
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Alroy, John. "Current extinction rates of reptiles and amphibians." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112, no. 42 (October 5, 2015): 13003–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1508681112.
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There is broad concern that a mass extinction of amphibians and reptiles is now underway. Here I apply an extremely conservative Bayesian method to estimate the number of recent amphibian and squamate extinctions in nine important tropical and subtropical regions. The data stem from a combination of museum collection databases and published site surveys. The method computes an extinction probability for each species by considering its sighting frequency and last sighting date. It infers hardly any extinction when collection dates are randomized and it provides underestimates when artificial extinction events are imposed. The method also appears to be insensitive to trends in sampling; therefore, the counts it provides are absolute minimums. Extinctions or severe population crashes have accumulated steadily since the 1970s and 1980s, and at least 3.1% of frog species have already disappeared. Based on these data and this conservative method, the best estimate of the global grand total is roughly 200 extinctions. Consistent with previous results, frog losses are heavy in Latin America, which has been greatly affected by the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Extinction rates are now four orders-of-magnitude higher than background, and at least another 6.9% of all frog species may be lost within the next century, even if there is no acceleration in the growth of environmental threats.
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FOIS, MAURO, GIANLUIGI BACCHETTA, ALBA CUENA-LOMBRAÑA, DONATELLA COGONI, MARIA SILVIA PINNA, ELENA SULIS, and GIUSEPPE FENU. "Using extinctions in species distribution models to evaluate and predict threats: a contribution to plant conservation planning on the island of Sardinia." Environmental Conservation 45, no. 1 (March 13, 2017): 11–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0376892917000108.
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SUMMARYRecent extinction rates suggest that humans are now causing the sixth mass extinction, and the Mediterranean islands are at the forefront of many of the environmental issues involved. This study provides an alternative approach for investigating documented local plant extinctions that occurred in Sardinia (western Mediterranean) during the last half century. A total of 190 local extinctions of 62 plant species were used to investigate the independent effects of eight ecological and anthropogenic variables and to model the areas of potential extinctions where plant conservation efforts could be focused. If all analysed plant species were considered together, ecological factors explained local extinctions more than anthropogenic factors. The independent effects of each factor considerably varied among species of different lifeforms and altitude ranges. Accordingly, distribution models of local extinctions outscored areas that are potentially rich in plant species with conservation interest, but which are particularly affected by humans. This paper suggests a reproducible, operational framework for analysing which extinction factors may play important roles in similar contexts and where they might be relevant.
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Stead, Joseph J., and Melvin G. Hoare. "The Near-IR Extinction Law." Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union 5, H15 (November 2009): 784. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1743921310011622.
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AbstractWe show that the power-law slope of the near-IR extinction law is significantly steeper than previously thought. Simulated colour-colour diagrams including a stellar population synthesis, realistic extinction distribution along the line-of-sight and synthesis through the filter profiles are compared to data from the UKIDSS Galactic Plane Survey. The slope of extinction with wavelength is found to be 2.14 ± 0.05 for total visual extinctions up to about 25 magnitudes and for a number of locations.