Academic literature on the topic 'External United States'

Based on fieldwork conducted in England, Wales, and two American states, this paper suggests six themes about “high stakes testing.” First, not all stakes are perceived to be equally high. Second, pressure to respond to a test comes from more than just formal stakes. Third, external pressure leads to symbolic responses outside the classroom. Fourth, external pressure can be useful for changing content taught. Fifth, external pressure is less effective in changing instructional strategy than content taught. Sixth, the effects of stakes will depend on a variety of other policy factors.

Has the development of post-Soviet Russia in an international system dominated by a democracy-promoting United States bred an authoritarian reaction in Russia as a response to perceived threats from the West? Beginning with the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, Russian elites have increasingly seen the United States as a distinctively threatening power, one with a strategy to exploit civic organizations, ethnic groups, and other forms of domestic pluralism as “fifth columns” in an effort to overthrow unfriendly regimes. With each new crisis in U.S.-Russian relations – Ukraine 2004, Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014 – the Russian leadership has tightened controls over society, the press, and the state. The result is that the United States’ muscular promotion of democracy abroad has produced the opposite of its intended effect on Russia, leading successive Russian governments to balance the perceived threat from the United States by pursuing greater military and intelligence capacity to intervene abroad, and by tightening internal authoritarian controls at home to prevent foreign exploitation of the nascent internal pluralism that emerged in the wake of Communism.

Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the trends of various types of data breaches and their compromised records in the USA using a new model recently developed by the authors. Design/methodology/approach – The 2,280 data breaches and over 512 million related compromised records tracked by the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse from 2005 through 2010 were analyzed and classified into four external, five internal and one non-traceable data breach categories, after which trends were determined for each. Findings – The findings indicate that although the trends for the annual number of data breaches and each of the internal and external categories and their related compromised records have increased over the six-year period, the changes have not been consistent from year to year. Practical implications – By classifying data breaches into internal and external categories with the use of this new data breach model provides an excellent methodological framework for organizations to use to develop more workable strategies for safeguarding personal information of consumers, clients, employees and other entities. Originality/value – The topic of data breaches remains salient to profit and nonprofit organizations, researchers, legislators, as well as criminal justice practitioners and consumer advocate groups.

Large current account deficits and foreign debt levels remain a source of concern for international financial markets and policymakers. Yet, exactly what an “excessive” external deficit or liability position for an advanced economy is at any time has never been adequately defined. This article addresses the question by proposing new methods for assessing the proximity of current account deficits and the associated foreign debt to their upper bounds. It contends that productive investment fundamentally sets the feasible limit for current account deficits, whereas the capital to output ratio ultimately sets the foreign debt to GDP limit. Benchmark estimates for the United States, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, advanced economies that have borrowed heavily since 1990, reveal external deficits have usually been well within limits, although recent United States experience is an exception.

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The rock lobster industry in Cearà has grown rapidly since 1955, when the United tates and Europe demand for lobster has steadily increased. During the industry evelopment process, lobster has become a major item in the export sector of CearÃ, as created several jobs and has increased state income and government revenue. evertheless, the lack of a sustainable lobster-fishing programme and recent trends in the international market for this product, the relative economic relevance of this ndustry may be at stake. This work contributes through the use of econometric echniques, cointegrating and error-correction model to explore the behavior of the xport of cearense lobster for the North merican market, the destination of pproximately 90% of exports of this crustacean. The model results indicated that the mount of lobster Cearà exported to the U.S. is more sensitive to changes in income than in the price.
O setor lagosteiro do Cearà teve seu desenvolvimento acelerado a partir de 1955, quando a lagosta passou a ser um item de crescente demanda em paÃses da Europa e nos EUA. Durante esse processo de desenvolvimento do setor, a lagosta tornouse um dos principais itens da pauta de exportaÃÃo do CearÃ, tambÃm se destacando na economia cearense em termos de geraÃÃo de emprego e renda. No entanto, por falta de um ordenamento eficiente da atividade, aliado à pesca predatÃria, observase, atualmente uma queda na produÃÃo. Este trabalho contribui por meio do emprego de tÃcnicas economÃtricas, cointegraÃÃo e modelo de correÃÃo de erros, para explorar o comportamento da exportaÃÃo de lagosta cearense para o mercado norte americano, destino de aproximadamente 90% das exportaÃÃes deste crustÃceo. Os resultados do modelo indicaram que a quantidade de lagosta exportada do Cearà para os EUA à mais sensÃvel a variaÃÃes na renda do que no preÃo.

This study examined three broad areas which related to plant level productivity in two apparel manufacturing plants. First, external factors, specifically unemployment and seasonal cycles, were examined. Second, internal organizational factors involving the size of the organization over time and the absenteeism rate within the company were studied. Finally, after holding constant the effects of the above factors, this study examined the impact of two types of positive incentive programs on employee productivity. It was hypothesized that there would be a positive relationship between unemployment and plant productivity. Partial support was found in one plant. A relationship between productivity level and seasonal cycles was also hypothesized. Generally, season was related to productivity, although the patterns for these relationships were very plant specific. The hypothesis that there would be a negative relationship between productivity rate and absenteeism rate received support in one plant only. It was further hypothesized that there would be a negative relationship between productivity level and size of the plant over time. The results for both plants were very different; however neither were in support of the hypothesis in the predicted direction. To evaluate the impact of the two productivity improvement programs, mean differences (adjusted for covariates and autocorrelation) were compared for three time periods: before, during, and after program implementation. In the Salem plant the time periods before and during the program had significantly higher productivity rates when compared to the period after the program ended. In the Jefferson plant the productivity level was slightly higher during program implementation when compared to the time period before the program. No other significant differences were found.
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The Structural Impediments Initiative (SII) talks held from September 1989 to July 1990 represented the first attempt by Japan and the United States to harmonise their domestic problems in international trade negotiations. These bilateral talks were also the first of their kind to delve into a comprehensive review of domestic laws and intrinsic business practices. In this sense, the SII talks may be seen as a preamble to mutual arrangements by domestic economies of their respective institutions and practices. This is likely to feature more prominently in the field of international relations, as seen recently in the European Community (EC) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). In this context, as the United States and Japan are the two largest and most technologically advanced economies in the world, accounting for more than 40 per cent of the world total gross national product, it is significant that they started harmonising their domestic rules through the SII talks, which are examined in this thesis.

The complexity of spoilers in the conflict resolution and the breakdown of the peace process through violence or other method have made spoiling an interesting topic. The discussion and the research on the spoiler has contributed to understanding the nature of the issue of spoilers. However, the discussion is rolling over the perception of spoiler and the obstacle of spoiling behavior. Some researchers are focusing on spoiling behavior of internal and external spoiler who are within the country of the conflict, while some of the recent researches concentrate on the spoiling actions of states or actors who are geographically external to the conflict which can derail the peace processes. Obviously the role of external states actors especially the US  was not covered by the research with the only exceptions in which the United State has been highlighted as the external state spoiler in Colombia.  In the case of the Afghanistan there are several states involved in Afghan conflict but there is no research has been done on democratic countries, such as the US as having potential spoiling behavior in the Afghan peace process. Therefore this study is trying to see if the US has a spoiling behavior in the context of Afghanistan. The analytical framework developed in this study outline some condition to spoiling behavior and activities which is applied to case of study US in Afghanistan to find out if the US acting as potential spoiler in Afghan peace process. The role of US in Afghanistan is one of the reason that encourage looking into the US impact on the country and its long pursuit of peace. In this study, the US opinion, role, and activities towards Afghan peace process and conflict are discussed throughout this study.  The analytical framework which has been developed in this study suggests that the US has the potential to spoiling behavior.

The accident at the three reactor units at Fukushima Daiichi showed weaknesses in the plant coping capability for beyond design basis accidents caused by extreme external events. The weaknesses included plant design features, accident management procedures and guidance, and offsite emergency response. As a result, significant changes to plant coping capability have been made to light water reactors worldwide to enhance the coping capabilities for beyond design basis accidents. However, the response in the United States has been significantly different from that in Europe in a number of ways. In the United States, the regulator and the industry convened separate expert panels to review the Fukushima accident and make recommendations for enhancements. On the regulatory side, a series of three Orders were issued and that required the implementation of certain enhancements (Mitigation strategies, hardened vents for certain BWRs, spent fuel pool level indication) to ensure adequate protection for the health and safety of the public. Other enhancements were subject to the “Backfit Rule” which requires that changes to regulatory requirements be shown to be cost beneficial using accepted methodologies. Simultaneously, the industry took independent steps to develop a diverse and flexible coping strategies (known as FLEX) and other enhancements. The focus in the United States was clearly on enhancements to guarantee continued core, containment and spent fuel pool cooling in the event of beyond design basis accidents, particularly those resulting from extreme external events. In Europe, the regulatory agencies ordered the development and completion of “Stress Tests” for each reactor site. These Stress Tests were focused on identifying the capability of the plant and its staff to respond to increasingly severe external events. The Stress Tests not only examined the ability to maintain core, containment and spent fuel pool cooling but also the ability to mitigate the consequences of accidents that progress to core damage (i.e., a severe accident). Regulatory requirements were then issued by the national regulators that addressed the weaknesses identified from the Stress Tests. While many of the enhancements to the plant coping capability were similar to those in the United States, significant hardware enhancements were also required to reduce the consequences of core damage accidents including hydrogen control and containment filtered venting. Finally, most European regulators also include severe accident management guidance (SAMG) as a regulatory requirement. In the United States, SAMG will be maintained as a voluntary industry commitment that is subject to regulatory oversight review.

In December 2000, a 7” long axial crack was visually identified on the compressor rear frame of an LM2500 propulsion gas turbine engine aboard the USS MITSCHER (DDG 57). This was originally thought to be a unique failure mode possibly caused by misaligned brackets external to the engine imparting undo thermal stresses onto the engine casing and flange. Since that time, 17 additional engines in the Navy fleet have been identified with either the large axial crack on the compressor casing or a small craze crack on the CRF flange, which appears to be the origination point prior to crack propagation. This paper discusses the extent of the cracking problem in the US Navy, the engineering investigation undertaken by the OEM and Navy to determine the root cause of the cracks and development of a field repair strategy to mitigate the impact of these cracks. The focus of the paper includes metallurgical analysis of failed compressor rear frame hardware, vibratory evaluation of the engine’s external piping system as a contributory failure mode and results of strain gage testing of the mid flange region.

In this study, we focus on the Acela Express, and try to find out how selected internal and external factors affect the Acela Express’s ridership. A two-stage least square regression model is introduced in order to eliminate the endogeneity problem caused by price and ridership. Also the Cochrane-Orcutt Procedure is adopted to solve autocorrelation. The result shows that ticket price and train on-time performances, which are used to being thought as important factors affect ridership become insignificant, while other factors like employment of business and professional in the Northeast Corridor areas have higher influence on high speed train ridership. The broader objective of this research is to provide policy suggestions for building of an efficient high-speed rail network that can both be profitable and solve practical problems that the contemporary transportation system faces.

The purpose of this research is to experimentally study how vertical mini-fins affect the overall heat transfer on a solid surface under external condensation conditions. Filmwise condensation is a major factor when designing steam condensers for thermoelectric power plants. These plants currently account for 40% of freshwater withdrawal and 3% of freshwater usage in the United States. Filmwise condensation averages five times lower heat transfer coefficients than those present in dropwise condensation. Due to the elevated nucleation rates in thermoelectric power plant condensers, filmwise condensation is the dominant condensation regime. The film thickness is directly proportional to the condenser’s overall thermal resistance on a surface under filmwise condensation. This research investigates the potential of mini-fins to mitigate the onset and effect of filmwise condensation, thus reducing thermal resistance and maximizing heat transfer. The overall heat transfer is determined by measuring the temperature gradient across aluminum test sections. The experimental setup was designed to control the cooling load, pressure, and steam quality in order to measure the temperature gradient under steady state conditions. By comparing the overall heat transfer of surfaces with different mini-fins, the optimal surface geometries can be found. Preliminary results show that mini-fins can improve the overall heat transfer ratios. Future work will introduce other mini-fin shapes, as well as focus on investigating the most efficient heat fluxes for each mini-fin.

Injury to the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) occurs 200,000 times per year in the United States. About half of these patients opt for ACL reconstruction (ACLr), while the other half choose non-surgical, conservative treatment. ACLr has been found to result in altered kinematics, namely external tibial rotation and knee adduction, during downhill running 1. ACLr also contributes to alterations in muscle activity after surgery. Leg muscles of the affected limb are weakened and contract in different muscle activation patterns when compared to healthy, uninjured patients 2.

In the United States, there are approximately 1 million fractures annually [1]. These fractures can be treated successfully with the use of casts or internal fixation (i.e. screws, bone plates, or intramedullary rods). However, for approximately 1 out of 20 people with a fracture, these treatments are not successful and result in either a malunion or a non-union. A malunion or a non-union reduces the ability of the bone to withstand the loads it is intended to take. This can cause pain and suffering for the patient. Clinically, non-unions can be treated using mechanical stimulation via an external fixator. Current treatments and the literature suggest that the mechanical environment of a healing fracture callus can influence tissue differentiation, perhaps even stimulate healing [2,3,4,5,6,7]. This leads to the overarching question, what is the precise relationship between the local mechanical environment of a fracture and patterns of bone repair? In order to answer this question, one must be able to control and measure the amount of motion or force applied to the fracture so as to properly relate the healing patterns with a particular stimulus.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the extreme inequality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, and pushed millions into poverty. The economic crisis continues due to the obscene global vaccine inequality. As of end March 2022, a dismal 14% of SADC citizens had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, compared with 65.5% in the United States and 73% in the European Union. In 2021, with infections rising in SADC, the critical health, social protection and economic programmes put in place by most governments in 2020 were rolled back and replaced with austerity, in the context of growing debt burdens and lack of external support for country budgets. Such austerity has been built into IMF programmes in the region. Recovering from the pandemic, however, offers SADC governments a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do what their citizens want: increase taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, boost public spending (especially on healthcare, education and social protection), and increase workers’ rights as well as tackling joblessness and precarious work. With external support, including through debt relief and aid, they could reduce inequality drastically and eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the extreme inequality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries, and pushed millions into poverty. The economic crisis continues due to the obscene global vaccine inequality. As of end March 2022, a dismal 14% of SADC citizens had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, compared with 65.5% in the United States and 73% in the European Union. In 2021, with infections rising in SADC, the critical health, social protection and economic programmes put in place by most governments in 2020 were rolled back and replaced with austerity, in the context of growing debt burdens and lack of external support for country budgets. Such austerity has been built into IMF programmes in the region. Recovering from the pandemic, however, offers SADC governments a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do what their citizens want: increase taxes on the wealthy and large corporations, boost public spending (especially on healthcare, education and social protection), and increase workers’ rights as well as tackling joblessness and precarious work. With external support, including through debt relief and aid, they could reduce inequality drastically and eliminate extreme poverty by 2030.

Public transit agencies in the United States depend on external vendors to help deliver and maintain many essential services and to provide critical technologies, from ticket purchases to scheduling to email management. While the integration of new, advanced technologies into the public transit industry brings important advancements to U.S. critical transportation infrastructure, the application of digital technologies also brings with it a new assortment of digital risks. Transit agencies of all sizes are finding themselves subject to cyber incidents—most notably ransomware attacks—like those experienced by larger, more prominent companies and critical infrastructure providers. The findings in this report focus on helping all parties involved improve in three key areas: cyber literacy and procurement practices, the lifecycle of technology vis-à-vis transit hardware, and the importance of embracing risk as a road to resiliency.

The author characterized the Ukrainian national values, national interests and national goals. It is emphasized that national values are conceptual, ideological bases, consolidating factors, important life guidelines on the way to effective protection of Ukraine from Russian aggression and building a democratic, united Ukrainian state. Author analyzes the functioning of the mass media in the context of educational propaganda of individual, social and state values, the dominant core of which are patriotism, human rights and freedoms, social justice, material and spiritual wealth of Ukrainians, natural resources, morality, peace, religiosity, benevolence, national security, constitutional order. These key national values are a strong moral and civic core, a life-giving element, a self-affirming synergy, which on the basis of homogeneity binds the current Ukrainian society with the ancestors and their centuries-old material and spiritual heritage. Attention is focused on the fact that the current problem of building the Ukrainian state and protecting it from the brutal Moscow invaders is directly dependent on the awareness of all citizens of the essence of national values, national interests, national goals and filling them with the meaning of life, charitable socio-political life. It is emphasized that the missionary vocation of journalists to orient readers and listeners to the meaningful choice of basic national values, on the basis of which Ukrainian citizens, regardless of nationality together they will overcome the external Moscow and internal aggression of the pro-Russian fifth column, achieve peace, return the Ukrainian territories seized by the Kremlin imperialists and, in agreement will build Ukrainian Ukraine.

Executive Summary Patient registries are important tools for advancing research, improving healthcare quality, and supporting health policy. Registries contain vast amounts of data that could be used for new purposes when linked with other sources or shared with researchers. This toolkit was developed to summarize current best practices and provide information to assist registries interested in sharing data. The contents of this toolkit were developed based on review of the literature, existing registry practices, interviews with registries, and input from key stakeholders involved in the sharing of registry data. While some information in this toolkit may be relevant in other countries, this toolkit focuses on best practices for sharing data within the United States. Considerations related to data sharing differ across registries depending on the type of registry, registry purpose, funding source(s), and other factors; as such, this toolkit describes general best practices and considerations rather than providing specific recommendations. Finally, data sharing raises complex legal, regulatory, operational, and technical questions, and none of the information contained herein should be substituted for legal advice. The toolkit is organized into three sections: “Preparing to Share Data,” “Governance,” and “Procedures for Reviewing and Responding to Data Requests.” The section on “Preparing to Share Data” discusses the role of appropriate legal rights to further share the data and the need to follow all applicable ethical regulations. Registries should also prepare for data sharing activities by ensuring data are maintained appropriately and developing policies and procedures for governance and data sharing. The “Governance” section describes the role of governance in data sharing and outlines key governance tasks, including defining and staffing relevant oversight bodies; developing a data request process; reviewing data requests; and overseeing access to data by the requesting party. Governance structures vary based on the scope of data shared and registry resources. Lastly, the section on “Procedures for Reviewing and Responding to Data Requests” discusses the operational steps involved in sharing data. Policies and procedures for sharing data may depend on what types of data are available for sharing and with whom the data can be shared. Many registries develop a data request form for external researchers interested in using registry data. When reviewing requests, registries may consider whether the request aligns with the registry’s mission/purpose, the feasibility and merit of the proposed research, the qualifications of the requestor, and the necessary ethical and regulatory approvals, as well as administrative factors such as costs and timelines. Registries may require researchers to sign a data use agreement or other such contract to clearly define the terms and conditions of data use before providing access to the data in a secure manner. The toolkit concludes with a list of resources and appendices with supporting materials that registries may find helpful.

Executive Summary Patient registries are important tools for advancing research, improving healthcare quality, and supporting health policy. Registries contain vast amounts of data that could be used for new purposes when linked with other sources or shared with researchers. This toolkit was developed to summarize current best practices and provide information to assist registries interested in sharing data. The contents of this toolkit were developed based on review of the literature, existing registry practices, interviews with registries, and input from key stakeholders involved in the sharing of registry data. While some information in this toolkit may be relevant in other countries, this toolkit focuses on best practices for sharing data within the United States. Considerations related to data sharing differ across registries depending on the type of registry, registry purpose, funding source(s), and other factors; as such, this toolkit describes general best practices and considerations rather than providing specific recommendations. Finally, data sharing raises complex legal, regulatory, operational, and technical questions, and none of the information contained herein should be substituted for legal advice. The toolkit is organized into three sections: “Preparing to Share Data,” “Governance,” and “Procedures for Reviewing and Responding to Data Requests.” The section on “Preparing to Share Data” discusses the role of appropriate legal rights to further share the data and the need to follow all applicable ethical regulations. Registries should also prepare for data sharing activities by ensuring data are maintained appropriately and developing policies and procedures for governance and data sharing. The “Governance” section describes the role of governance in data sharing and outlines key governance tasks, including defining and staffing relevant oversight bodies; developing a data request process; reviewing data requests; and overseeing access to data by the requesting party. Governance structures vary based on the scope of data shared and registry resources. Lastly, the section on “Procedures for Reviewing and Responding to Data Requests” discusses the operational steps involved in sharing data. Policies and procedures for sharing data may depend on what types of data are available for sharing and with whom the data can be shared. Many registries develop a data request form for external researchers interested in using registry data. When reviewing requests, registries may consider whether the request aligns with the registry’s mission/purpose, the feasibility and merit of the proposed research, the qualifications of the requestor, and the necessary ethical and regulatory approvals, as well as administrative factors such as costs and timelines. Registries may require researchers to sign a data use agreement or other such contract to clearly define the terms and conditions of data use before providing access to the data in a secure manner. The toolkit concludes with a list of resources and appendices with supporting materials that registries may find helpful.

Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report—a national overview of domestic animal health in the United States for 2004—is a direct result of an external review of the Nation’s animal health safeguarding system. The Animal Health Safeguarding Review assessed the performance, processes, and procedures used to ensure the success of the mission of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)–Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service’s (APHIS) Veterinary Services (VS) program: to protect and to improve the health, quality, and marketability of our Nation’s animals, animal products, and veterinary biologics.