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Amoussou, Amour Gbaguidi, and Aristide Medenou. "Application of ARIMA models on Export potential Indicator." African Journal of Applied Statistics 8, no. 2 (July 1, 2021): 1165–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2021.1165.263.
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The export potential indicator is designed for countries that aim to support established exports by increasing exports to new or existing target markets, and several studies are being managed using various mathematical model to predict the export values. Here, we propose an econometric model that could be useful to predict the export values. We performed the ARIMA model to evaluate the realized and unrealized export potentials of products. We therefore propose to carry out actions in favor of increasing the export potential.
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Ghauri, Sahir Pervaiz, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Dalia Streimikiene, and Justas Streimikis. "Forecasting Exports and Imports by using Autoregressive (AR) with Seasonal Dummies and Box-Jenkins Approaches: A Case of Pakistan." Engineering Economics 31, no. 3 (June 29, 2020): 291–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.3.25323.
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This research aims to evaluate two econometric models to forecast imports and exports for the financial year (FY) 2020. For this purpose, we used the annual exports and imports data of Pakistan from FY2002 to FY2019. Thus, in this regard, we employed, and compared the results of two econometrics models such as Box Jenkins or Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Auto-Regressive (AR) with seasonal dummies. For examining the precision of forecasting, we employed mean absolute error and root mean square error approaches. The findings of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reveal that the ARIMA or Box Jenkins approach provides better accuracy of the forecast for the exports as compared to the AR model with dummies. However, Auto-Regressive (AR) model has demonstrated more precision for the imports as compared to the Box Jenkins model. Hence, the projected forecasting for the growth of export is 1.87% for the FY2020 and projected forecasting for the import demonstrates a negative variation of -1.61% for the FY2020. The findings of the undertaken study recommend the policymakers of Pakistan to take corrective measures to increase exports and to prevent the country from the trade deficit. The policymakers of Pakistan should give more incentives to the exporters and decrease the cost of doing business to be more competitive than the regional economies such as India, Bangladesh, and China.
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Kaboudan, Mahmoud A. "Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach." International Journal of Middle East Studies 20, no. 1 (February 1988): 45–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020743800057500.
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This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy; policy models; macroeconomic models; econometric models; macroeconometric models; forecasting models; and policy models.
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Plaskon, Svitlana, Halina Seniv, Ivan Novosad, and Vadym Masliy. "APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE." Economic Analysis, no. 30(3) (2020): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.03.025.
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Introduction. Foreign trade operations significantly affect the development of each country's economy, in particular the value of gross domestic product, which is one of the main indicators of economic development and welfare of population. Therefore, it is necessary to study and model the impact of exports, imports and net exports on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze publications that consider export-import operations of Ukraine, study of statistical information in this area, construction and analysis of econometric models of the dynamics of foreign trade operations of Ukraine and their impact on gross domestic product. Method. The article uses regression-correlation analysis as one of the main research methods; time series theory; methods of mathematical modeling. Results. The dynamics of foreign economic operations and gross domestic product of Ukraine are researched and analyzed. It is revealed that the balance of export-import operations has a significant impact on the gross domestic product of Ukraine. An econometric model of the dependence of the nominal gross domestic product on the value of exports of goods and services (coefficient of determination 0.9795) is calculated, using statistical information for 2005-2019 years. It is substantiated that with the increase in exports of goods and services by UAH 1 billion Ukraine's nominal GDP grows by an average of UAH 2.2642 billion. The value of coefficients of import dependence and coverage of import by export in foreign economic operations of Ukraine are analyzed. It is noted that the coefficient of import dependence significantly exceeds the allowable level in the study period, due to certain imbalances in foreign trade relations. The coefficient of coverage of imports by exports only in 2005 was greater than one, and during 2006-2019 it became less than one. In this regard, it is necessary to increase export operations, obtain a positive balance of payments, make effective economic and political decisions to increase exports of Ukrainian goods and services, reduce import dependence, using and implementing innovative methods of production and management.
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Rieländer, Jan, and Bakary Traoré. "Explaining Diversification in Exports Across Higher Manufacturing Content — What is the Role of Commodities?" Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 07, no. 02 (May 4, 2016): 1650007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993316500071.
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This paper adds new empirical evidence to the recent literature about the ways countries develop strong productive capacities by analyzing the patterns of export diversification across different levels of manufacturing content. In addition to the measures commonly used to study diversification, such as the number of active export lines and measures of “discoveries in exports”, we propose two new filters based on the concept of revealed comparative advantage (RCA). We use trade data at the 4-digit level for 176 countries from 1992 until 2011, and we classify all the products into three manufacturing categories (unprocessed, semi processed and finished goods). Data confirms that growing countries continue to add new commodities to their exports basket until they reach around US$ 25,000 of GDP per capita. More interestingly, we found that for many countries expanding the spectrum of commodities exported with comparative advantage (RCA) actually contribute to boosting new productive capacities in manufacturing sectors. This finding is robust to different econometric models and different country groups.
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Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin, Tan Siew Ee, and Sushant Vaidik. "Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia." Journal of International Business and Economy 14, no. 2 (December 1, 2013): 94–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.51240/jibe.2013.2.5.
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The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.
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Mahmoud, E., J. Motwani, and G. Rice. "Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models." Omega 18, no. 4 (1990): 375–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(90)90027-7.
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Maune, Alexander. "Trade in Services-Economic Growth Nexus: An Analysis of the Growth Impact of Trade in Services in SADC Countries." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 11, no. 2(J) (May 13, 2019): 58–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2819.
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The article analysed the trade in services led growth in ten selected countries in the Southern African Development Community region using econometric regression models. Panel data obtained from the World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development databases for the period 1992 to 2015 was analysed. Five variables were used in the econometric analysis. The marginal effects of service and goods exports were positive while those of goods and service imports were negative and highly significant as was expected from literature. Service exports registered an impact that was almost threefold that of service imports and greater than goods exports. Policy-makers are encouraged to, clearly define their trade in service strategy and reduce or remove trade restrictions. The study is of importance to researchers, the private sector and government policymakers.
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Goretzki, Philipp, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Thomas Glauben, and Jens-Peter Loy. "Price discrimination and market power in the international fertiliser market: empirical evidence for exports from Russia." Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal 5, no. 2 (June 20, 2019): 5–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.51599/are.2019.05.02.01.
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Purpose. In 2012, Russia became the world’s second-largest exporter increasing its potash exports from 1996 to 2012 more than two times. The top five countries control more than 50 % of the world’s exports, particularly 53.4 % (38.0 mln MT) for nitrogen, 73.4 % (3.5 mln MT) for phosphate and 90.8 % (35.5 mln MT) for potash. The objective of this study is to analyse the market structure and market concentration of the Russian export company in the international fertiliser market, and to develop hypotheses about the oligopolistic market behaviour. The empirical part of this study tests the hypotheses by employing econometric models to provide evidence for market power and price discrimination in the international fertiliser market.
Methodology / approach. The empirical analysis in this study relies on the theoretical framework of pricing-to-market (PTM) pioneered by Krugman (1986, 1987). Following Krugman’s groundbreaking approach, Knetter (1989) developed an empirical model testing the PTM hypothesis. The major advantages of the Knetter’s model are that the pricing behaviour of the export country towards the import countries can be estimated with public statistical data for the export statistics of the export country and bilateral exchange rates between the currencies of the export and import countries.
Results. This study presents empirical evidence for the behaviour of Russian exporters in the international fertiliser market. The estimation results indicate that market power in the export market for nitrogen fertilisers is exercised by Russian exporters in more than two-thirds of the destination countries and in the export market for potash fertilisers in eight out of nine countries. The exercising market power in the export market for potash fertilisers is much more pronounced than in the nitrogen fertiliser export market.
Originality / scientific novelty. Primarily against the background of increased market concentration by the companies in the fertiliser markets and regarding the aforementioned cartel dispute, this study constitutes a first attempt to close the research gap in the empirical literature and to promote empirical research on the market behaviour of export companies in the international markets for nitrogen and potash fertilisers.
Practical value / implications. This study uses econometric techniques to examine the collapse of the potash cartel on the use of price discrimination and the exercising of market power in the international fertiliser market by Russia. The descriptive analysis shows that Russia plays an important role in the export of nitrogen and potash on the world market and many importing destinations. Often Russia in addition to the high market share also has no or few competitors in the various destinations, which supports speculation of exercising market power.
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Gerasimov, Aleksey N., Evgeny I. Gromov, Yury S. Skripnichenko, Oksana P. Grigoryeva, and Victoria Yu Skripnichenko. "Models and Forecasts of the Export Potential of the Regional Economic System." REGIONOLOGY 30, no. 4 (December 30, 2022): 762–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.121.030.202204.762-782.
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Introduction. The export potential of the regional agricultural market causes great interest from both the scientific community and government agencies. Many scientific studies are devoted to the search for methods to increase the export potential in order to ensure the sustainable development of regional economic systems. The article proposes and tests the original author’s algorithm for creating a dynamic econometric model for forecasting the volumes of production, sales and exports of the main types of livestock products at the regional level. The purpose of the article is to assess the export potential of the main products of the regional agricultural market based on the built dynamic econometric models. Materials and Methods. The research is based on a set of empirical data of result and input variables characterizing the production, sales and export of the main livestock products in the region for the period 2010–2020. Research methods include dynamic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting. The dynamic analysis carried out made it possible to assess the change in the production, sale and export of the main agricultural products in the region, to assess the current trends. Based on the constructed econometric models, the most significant factors influencing the resulting variables were identified, the specifications and verification of the models were carried out. The method of extrapolation of the identified trends made it possible to evaluate the predicted values of the resulting variables for the medium term. Results. Based on the selected input variables, models of production, sale and export of milk, wool and eggs by agricultural producers in the region were built. From a variety of alternative models, models with the best statistical quality characteristics were selected. The high level of quality of the obtained models made it possible to use them for predictive calculations of the levels of resulting variables for the period 2021–2026. Comparison of the results of the forecasts made it possible to identify the types of livestock products that already have a high level of exportability. In addition, types of products with a low level of exportability were identified, which have a high potential for increase. Discussion and Conclusion. As a result of using econometric modeling methods, dynamic models were obtained that made it possible to obtain a forecast for the development of livestock in a region with a high export potential in the near future. The practical significance of this article lies in the possibility of influencing the production, sale and export of livestock products in the region through a change in the corresponding set of factor variables of the models. Thus, the resulting dynamic models can be used both by agricultural producers for planning economic activities, and by regional authorities when drawing up regional development programs.
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Nieto, M. R., R. B. Carmona Benitez, and J. N. Martinez. "Comparing models to forecast cargo volume at port terminals." Journal of Applied Research and Technology 19, no. 3 (June 30, 2021): 238–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/icat.24486736e.2021.19.3.1695.
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Economic growth has a direct link with the volume of cargo at port terminals. To encourage growth, investment decisions on infrastructure are required that can be performed by the development of econometric models. We compare three time-series models and one machine-learning model to estimate and forecast cargo volume. We apply an ARIMA+GARCH+Bootstrap, a multiplicative Holt-Winters, a support vector regression model, and a time-series model with explanatory variables ARIMAX. The models forecast cargo through the ports of San Pedro using data from 2008 to 2016. The database contains imports and exports of bulk, container, reefer, and ro-ro cargo. Results show that the multiplicative Holt-Winters model is the best method to forecast imports and exports of bulk cargo, while the support vector regression model is the best method to forecast imports and exports of container, reefer, and ro-ro cargo. The Diebold-Mariano Test, the RMSE metric, and the MAPE metric validate the results.
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Vasylieva, Natalia, and John R. Kruse. "Models on providing food security: case of Ukraine." Problems and Perspectives in Management 16, no. 4 (December 11, 2018): 344–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.16(4).2018.28.
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Providing food security is a top issue of agricultural economics in a global scale. Although Ukraine helps other countries become more food secure through its exports of wheat, corn, barley, and sunflower, low per capita income levels create challenges for Ukrainians to keep their diet nutrition balance in animal food basket. The research objective supposed applying mathematical apparatus to support solving this problem. The offered consumption optimization model has been developed to ensure inelastic customers’ food preferences by animal products subject to income and calories constraints. The proposed econometric models have been designed to project broiler, pork, eggs, milk, and beef productions. Complex implementation of the set mathematical models maintained the tool to analyze scenarios by expected export/import and demands for grain and oilseed crops used for feed in animal husbandry. The results of this research provide state authorities, livestock and poultry producers, Ukrainian consumers and other interested parties with management guidance focused on developing animal husbandry in the presence of income, as well as animal product price variability.
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Mietule, Iveta, and Gajane Gukasjan. "ECONOMETRIC MODELING OF THE ECONOMY OF LATVIA." Latgale National Economy Research 1, no. 5 (October 21, 2013): 167. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/lner2013vol1.5.1158.
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The article is devoted to the estimation of econometric models of the Latvian economy. The Klein's simplified macroeconomic model of the Latvian economy is discussed. The endogenous variables are consumption, net investment, gross domestic product (excluding net exports and additions to reserves). An exogenous variable is the government spending. The model is just-identified, and Two-stage least squares (2SLS) method provides consistent estimates of the parameters of a structural equation. The modified Keynеsian model was also considered, where the lagged variable - gross domestic product of the previos period is presented. It is proved that the model is over-identified, and the Two-stage least squares (2SLS) method provides estimates of the parameters of a structural equation. We have estimated the models with annual time-series data of the Latvia economy for the years 1995 through 2011 (at basic prices in 2000).
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Jiang, Guirong, Rafael Alvarado, Muntasir Murshed, Brayan Tillaguango, Elisa Toledo, Priscila Méndez, and Cem Isik. "Effect of Agricultural Employment and Export Diversification Index on Environmental Pollution: Building the Agenda towards Sustainability." Sustainability 14, no. 2 (January 8, 2022): 677. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14020677.
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Agricultural activities have a significant impact on environmental quality, because they generate waste that pollutes water and soil. In parallel, the supply of products has diversified in recent years to meet growing demand, exerting strong pressure on nature’s capacity for regeneration and absorption of waste. This research aims to examine the impact of agricultural employment and the export diversification index on ecological footprints, using advanced techniques of panel data econometrics. This relationship is moderated by population density and real per capita product. Cross-section dependence and slope homogeneity were included in the econometric models. The cointegration and causality analysis was reinforced by estimating the short- and long-term elasticities, using the AMG, CCE-MG, FMOLS, and DOLS models. Using annual data for 96 countries, we found a heterogeneous impact of agricultural employment and the export diversification index on ecological footprint, between the short and long term. The findings reveal that the increase of the product increases the pressure on the ecological footprint. The achievement of SDGs must include joint efforts between countries, and not in isolation. Those responsible for environmental policy should promote the idea that production must be friendly to the environment and promote the green growth of countries. The adoption of new technology, higher productivity agricultural employment, and the regulation of exports of sustainable products can contribute to achieving environmental sustainability.
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Hsu, Maxwell K., Junzhou Zhang, and Yamin Ahmad. "Government digital information discovery and exploration: the case of unraveling tourism-led-growth paradox in China." Information Discovery and Delivery 45, no. 4 (November 20, 2017): 212–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/idd-10-2016-0036.
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Purpose This study aims to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth while considering exports simultaneously. Governments in many countries have been developing and deploying strategies to attract tourism receipts as a means for economic growth. However, assessing the potential impact of tourism on economic growth among large economies is still in its infancy. Design/methodology/approach Using a vector error correction model framework, this study examines the relationship among exports, gross domestic product (GDP) and tourism receipts (including international tourism receipts and domestic tourism receipts in two separate models) with macro data that covers two recent decades (1994-2013) in China. Findings The empirical findings confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship in each of these two tri-variate models. The empirical findings reveal that (1) both tourism-led-growth and export-led-growth hypotheses are supported, (2) the growth rate of tourism receipts exhibit a higher relevance with GDP growth than export growth and (3) the growth rate of international tourism shows a higher relevance with GDP growth than domestic tourism growth. Originality/value Using macroeconomic data collected by the Chinese government, the current study employs an advanced econometric methodology to explore the potential benefits of tourism on economic growth in China.
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Shiryaeva, Alina Radimirovna. "Econometric Analysis of GDP Growth in Nordic Region and in the BRICS countries." KANT 41, no. 4 (December 15, 2021): 126–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.24923/2222-243x.2021-41.23.
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The purpose of the study is to determine the relationship between the economic well-being of countries and their openness to external markets. The scientific novelty consists in the comparison of two groups of countries with different characteristics and identifying specific patterns of the impact of selected macroeconomic factors on GDP. The article presents an econometric analysis and contains regression equations for each state. Interpretation of the coefficients of the derived models makes it possible to estimate changes in GDP with the change of indicators. As a result, it was revealed that export is the most stable and strongly influencing the economy of all countries macroeconomic factor, and the strength of influence depends on the level of development of the country. The stability of GDP in developing countries is largely achieved through the regulation of internal factors, and in developed countries through exports regulation.
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Sharma, Om, and Rajendra Bhand. "Foreign Trade and Its Effects on Nepalese Economic Development." Journal of Nepalese Business Studies 2, no. 1 (September 13, 2006): 13–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jnbs.v2i1.51.
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Having with the objectives of understanding the effects of foreign trade on the economic development process of Nepal, this paper attempts to deal the role and the impact of export and import along with many other pertinent factors. The determining factors that have been considered along with export are capital stock, labor force, average propensity to save (APS), relative price index (RPI), ratio of government development expenditure to GDP. Moreover, GDP, PCI, and growth rate of GDP are the assumed development indices. These macro variables are introduced through the application of various econometric models. The empirical results have been estimated by applying annual data for the period of 1974/'75 to 2002/'03. The different models in linear and log-linear forms have justified that exports growth leads to economic growth. Therefore, the policy of adequate investment in export-oriented industries that embody a 'proper mix' of export promotion and import substitutions is suggested.
Journal of Nepalese Business Studies Vol.2(1) 2005 pp.13-32
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F.E., Chinyere, Samuel N.N., Nkama O.N., and Chinwoke R.E. "Evaluation of the Impacts of Non-Oil Exports on Economic Growth in Nigeria Between 1986-2018." African Journal of Accounting and Financial Research 4, no. 3 (August 17, 2021): 39–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.52589/ajafr-mun5qz7w.
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Non-oil exports have been seen to be very vital in economic growth and development, especially for developing economics. Despite the poor contribution of non-oil exports to economic growth in Nigeria, this study is inspired by the inconsistencies in empirical findings regarding the connection and effect of non-oil exports on the economy. The objective of the study was to determine the effect of non-oil exports on economic growth in Nigeria. An ex-post facto research design was adopted. The time frame of thirty three (33) years, from 1986 to 2018 was adopted to allow for a large number of observations which will improve the robustness of the results. The data was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin of 2017. The Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation technique was applied in guesstimating the models. E – views 9.0 was the econometric software used for the analysis. The result revealed that non-oil exports have no significant effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product, agricultural contribution to real gross domestic product is not significantly affected by exports of non-oil products even though there is evidence of a positive but insignificant correlation between them. Manufacturing capacity utilization is not significantly influenced by variation in Nigeria’s non-oil exports. Non-oil exports are positively associated with manufacturing capacity utilization. Economic growth in Nigeria has not been significantly affected by non-oil exports despite the various non-oil promotion strategies by the government. We recommend that cost and access to financial services for non-oil exporters be moderate or relaxed.
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Terzi, Chokri, and Anis El Ammari. "An Econometric Forecasting Model for Foreign Trade: Evidence From Tunisia." Journal of Advance Research in Mathematics And Statistics (ISSN: 2208-2409) 5, no. 8 (August 31, 2018): 01–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.53555/nnms.v5i8.531.
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In this paper and without application because of the not availability of the data, the authors propose specific models in static and dynamic framework to analyze and forecast the evolution of the main components of the foreign trade of the Tunisian economy. For instance, they model and interpret the elasticities of imports and exports to changes in the prices and income. This approach thereby adds theoretical depth to a model that has a good forecasting performance. This paper is one among rare papers which focus on the modelling of the Tunisian foreign trade based on this approach.
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FRANCO, Ray John Gabriel, and Dennis S. MAPA. "ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT GROWTH. A MIXED FREQUENCY MODEL APPROACH." Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields 5, no. 2 (December 31, 2014): 117. http://dx.doi.org/10.14505/tpref.v5.2(10).01.
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Frequency mismatch has been a problem in time series econometrics. Many monthly economic and financial indicators are normally aggregated to match quarterly macroeconomic series such as Gross Domestic Product when performing econometric analysis. However, temporal aggregation, although widely accepted, is prone to information loss. To address this issue, mixed frequency modelling is employed by using state space models with time-varying parameters. Quarter-on-quarter growth rate of GDP estimates are treated as monthly series with missing observation. Using Kalman filter algorithm, state space models are estimated with eleven monthly economic indicators as explanatory variables. A one-step-ahead forecast for GDP growth rates is generated and as more indicators are included in the model, the predicted values became closer to the actual data. Further evaluation revealed that among the group competing models, using Consumer Price Index (CPI), growth rates of Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi), Exchange Rate, Real Money Supply, Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Merchandise Exports are the more important determinants of GDP growth and generated the most desirable forecasts (lower forecast errors).
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Kibona, Cornel Anyisile, Zhang Yuejie, and Lu Tian. "Towards developing a beef meat export oriented policy in Tanzania: -Exploring the factors that influence beef meat exports-." PLOS ONE 17, no. 6 (June 17, 2022): e0270146. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0270146.
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors that influence beef meat exports in Tanzania, with a particular focus on the years 1985 to 2020, in enhancing the development of beef meat export-oriented policy in Tanzania, thereby enhancing beef exports in Tanzania. A time-series panel dataset was analyzed using both descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares (OLS) linear regression analyses models. As per the descriptive analyses, beef meat exports reached the highest pick of 4,300 tons per year in 1990, whereas from 1991 to date, beef meat exportation in Tanzania has been in declining trends despite an increase in beef meat output and trade openness from 162,500 to 486,736 tons and 7.6 to 98.7%, respectively. Nevertheless, while the prospect of Tanzanian beef meat exports appears bright and promising, the industry will continue to encounter trade barriers and must stay competitive to produce enough volume and quality beef meat to meet the needs of its existing and expanding markets. This is because, Tanzanian beef meat competes for market share with beef meat from other countries in the global markets, where customers pay a premium for lines of beef meat that meet quality standards while discarding those that do not. This indicates that the quantity of beef meat produced has no relevance to its world market share, but its quality standards do. Furthermore, the econometric results revealed that the coefficients of the terms of trade, Tanzania GDP per capita, global beef meat consumption, trade openness, and beef meat outputs were found to be significantly positive (P < 0.05) influencing beef meat exports in Tanzania, whereas the trading partners’ GDP per capita and exchange rate were not. The findings have varying implications as to what factors need to be addressed to further improve beef meat exports. From the farmer’s perspective, better access to adequate funds as a result of increased income benefit from export will assist in improving beef cattle productivity and quality to compete effectively in the global markets. From the government’s perspective, because trade openness promotes economic growth through export benefits, the Tanzania government and policymakers need to establish balanced policies to strengthen bilateral trade relationships to generate more opportunities in global markets.
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Atique, Zeshan, and Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad. "The Supply and Demand for Exports of Pakistan: The Polynomial Distributed Lag Model (PDL) Approach." Pakistan Development Review 42, no. 4II (December 1, 2003): 961–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.30541/v42i4iipp.961-972.
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In the global economy, the performance of any country will greatly depend on the performance of its exports. The trade performance determines the prospects of change. It helps countries win friends, and break the traditional mould of isolation and indifference. The performance of exports of countries depends on various price and non-price factors. In international trade transactions it is important to recognise that these transactions require some amount of time that occurs between the decision to buy and actual delivery of the product from foreign country. In the Econometric modelling lag occupies a central role. It is recognised that due to psychological, technical and institutional reasons, a dependent variable may respond to explanatory variables with lapse of time, in particular when dealing with time-series trade models.
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Shpak, Nestor, Solomiya Ohinok, Ihor Kulyniak, Włodzimierz Sroka, Yuriy Fedun, Romualdas Ginevičius, and Joanna Cygler. "CO2 Emissions and Macroeconomic Indicators: Analysis of the Most Polluted Regions in the World." Energies 15, no. 8 (April 15, 2022): 2928. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15082928.
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There is no sector of the economy that is not dependent on the state of development of the energy sector. This sector produces a significant share of global CO2 emissions. Harmful CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas emissions accelerate global warming. Therefore, more and more countries are adopting a strategy for the transition to carbon-neutral energy. However, energy independence and economic competitiveness are closely linked. One cannot analyze them separately. Given these facts, we focused on conducting an econometric study of the impact of key macroeconomic indicators on the level of CO2 emissions into the air in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region as the regions with the largest CO2 emissions. The modeling was carried out using the method of a correlation–regression analysis with the subsequent construction of econometric models. The quality of the built econometric models was checked using the coefficient of determination and Fisher’s criterion. The sample of statistics was formed from all the available values of the World Bank’s annual indicators for the period 1970–2020. The findings achieved showed that: (i) The results of our study confirmed the dependence of CO2 emissions on macroeconomic factors such as GDP, exports and imports, the rate of inflation, and unemployment. It allows the governments of many countries to use research findings to diagnose, monitor, and forecast macroeconomic outcomes to reduce or maintain allowable CO2 emissions. (ii) Identifying and assessing economic losses from environmental pollution by CO2 emissions using econometric models will allow to ensure effective public environmental and economic policies aimed at reducing harmful CO2 emissions into the air. It may be regarded as the practical importance of our study.
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Liaqat, Zara, and Xinya Wang. "Identification of the Long-Run Determinants of U.S.-Canada Softwood Lumber Trade." International Journal of Economics and Finance 10, no. 1 (December 4, 2017): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v10n1p1.
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This paper uses monthly data from 1994 to 2016 in order to analyze the time series properties of the determinants of Canadian softwood lumber exports to the United States. The key findings generally support the hypotheses of previous studies with the exception of the significance of bilateral exchange rate movements. Based on dynamic ordinary least square estimates and several robust cointegraton tests, the paper finds that the estimated coefficients of exchange rate, softwood lumber price ratio and the two softwood lumber trade agreements are highly sensitive to the lag order used in econometric models. On the other hand, the coefficient of housing starts index remains independent of the variation in number of lags included. In addition, we study the long-run response of Canadian exports of lumber to shocks in these determinants by generating impulse response functions.
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Salamaga, Marcin. "Econometric Analysis of the Relationship Between Innovation and Foreign Trade Distance in Central and Eastern Europe Countries." Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia 20, no. 1 (June 1, 2020): 360–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/foli-2020-0021.
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AbstractResearch background: Posner’s technology gap theories and Vernon’s product life cycle assume that differences in innovation and technology levels are the cause of foreign trade. These theories are subject to empirical verification. To date, however, the analysis of the impact of innovation distance on a country’s export competitiveness is omitted. This article tries to fill this research gap. The author attempts to examine the relationship between the innovation gap and export competitiveness in industries with varying levels of technological advancement.Purpose: The aim of the article is to research the direction and strength of the impact of the innovation gap on export competitiveness in 10 different industries in Central and Eastern Europe countries (CEECs).Research methodology: Dynamic panel models were used in the research, which describe the impact of the technological gap on the export competitiveness of countries. To measure innovation, the indicator of innovative comparative advantage was constructed and based on the number of patents used. The technological gap in individual countries was calculated as the Euclidean distance indicators of the innovative advantage in a given country from other countries.Results: In light of the presented results of the study, it can be concluded that innovation generally has a significant and positive impact on the competitiveness of exports in the high and medium-high technology industries of the CEECs, while it does not significantly affect the competitiveness of trade in low technology industries. In addition, the Visegrad countries in the high and medium-high technology industries generally have a low technological gap and a smaller distance in export competitiveness using the dynamic panel data model.Novelty: The added value of this article is an innovative study on the impact of the technological gap on export competitiveness with the example of the CEECs using the dynamic panel data model.
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Kuzmenko, Elena, Luboš Smutka, Mikhail Pankov, and Nadezhda Efimova. "The Success of Economic Policies in Russia: Dependence on Crude Oil vs. Export Diversification." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 65, no. 1 (2017): 299–310. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201765010299.
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In the light of numerous debates around Russia’s dependence on crude oil and the necessity to diversify the Russian economy, the present paper investigates how closely federal budget revenues, structure of export basket and GDP growth in Russia are tied up with crude oil prices (POIL) on the one hand and the real effective exchange rate of ruble (REER) on the other. The study covers the period from 2000:Q1 till 2014:Q4 and employs index analysis along with vector error correction model (VECM) based on Johansen co‑integration technique. The calculated REER revealed its significant appreciation, that together with a high share of mineral products in total Russian exports points to Dutch disease presence. The constructed econometric models revealed the existence of long‑run relationships among the analyzed indicators. Post‑estimation tests proved the validity of the VECMs. According to the obtained results, in order to stimulate “non‑oil” exports monetary authorities should depreciate national currency, whilst fiscal burden should be mild towards “non oil” producers. However, the observed dynamics of macroeconomic indicators points to the fact that the Russian economy is still substantially influenced by POIL and this influence is much more stronger than it is exerted by fiscal and monetary regulators. It allows us to conclude that crude oil will continue to play, at least in foreseeable future, a dominant role in further development of the Russian economy.
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Guillermo, Benavides-Perales, Tellez-Leon Isela Elizabeth, and Venegas-Martinez Francisco. "The impact of banking and external sectors on Mexican agriculture in the period 1995–2015." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 64, No. 1 (January 18, 2018): 36–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/193/2016-agricecon.
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Mexican agricultural production has been characterised by a lack of dynamism in recent years and is losing ground in terms of GDP. This may reflect the lack of funding from commercial and development banks. This research aims at studying the dynamics of the agriculture sector through econometric analysis using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Vector Error Correction (VEC) models in order to examine the short- and long-run relationships among agricultural production, terms of trade (ratio of agricultural prices and general price level), agricultural exports and lending from commercial and development banks. The main empirical findings, contrary to what was expected, is that even though there was a precarious level of funding from the banking sector, credit from commercial banking was higher than that from development banking in the last decades. Further, relative prices were found to have a negative relationship with agricultural exports, showing the importance of the external sector in agriculture.
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Behera, Harendra Kumar, and Inder Sekhar Yadav. "Explaining India’s current account deficit: a time series perspective." Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies 26, no. 1 (June 7, 2019): 117–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/jabes-11-2018-0089.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the issue of high current account deficit (CAD) from various perspectives focussing its behaviour, financing pattern and sustainability for India. Design/methodology/approach To begin with the trends, composition and dynamics of CAD for India are analysed. Next, the influence of capital flows on current account is investigated using Granger non-causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) between current account balance (CAB) to GDP ratio and financial account balance to GDP ratio. Also, the sustainability of India’s current account is examined using different econometrics techniques. In particular, Husted’s (1992), Johansen’s cointegration and vector error correction model (VECM) is applied along with conducting unit root and structural break tests wherever applicable. Further, long-run and short-run determinants of the CAB are estimated using Johansen’s VECM. Findings The study found that the widening of CAD is due to fall in household financial savings and corporate investments. Also, it was found that a large part of India’s CAD has been financed by FDI and portfolio investments which are partly replaced by short-term volatile flows. The unit root and cointegration tests indicate a sustainable current account for India. Further, econometric analysis reveals that India’s current account is driven by fiscal deficit, terms of trade growth, inflation, real deposit rate, trade openness, relative income growth and the age dependency factor. Practical implications Since India’s CAD has widened and is expected to widen primarily due to rise in gold and oil imports, policy makers should focus on achieving phenomenal export growth so that a sustainable current account is maintained. Also, with rising working-age and skilled population, India should focus more on high-value product exports rather than low-value manufactured items. Further, on the structural side it is important to correct fiscal deficit as it is one of the important factors contributing to large CAD. Originality/value The paper is an important empirical contribution towards explaining India’s CAD over time using latest and comprehensive data and econometric models.
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Kierczyńska, Sylwia. "DETERMINANTS OF THE LEVEL AND VOLATILITY OF BLACKCURRANT PURCHASE PRICES IN POLAND." Annals of the Polish Association of Agricultural and Agribusiness Economists XXIV, no. 4 (November 20, 2022): 103–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0016.0946.
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The aim of the study was to identify the factors which significantly influence the purchase prices of blackcurrants in Poland. The average annual purchase prices of blackcurrants between 2004 and 2021 were the research material. The study was based on the data published by the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute in the semi-annual journal “Fruit and Vegetable Market”. The relationship between the fruit purchase prices and the selected explanatory variables was analysed with the multiple regression method. Single-equation econometric models were designated as multi-factor functions. The reference publications were used as the basis for the selection of the following set of potential variables explaining the purchase prices of blackcurrants: the area of blackcurrant plantations in Poland, the yields of blackcurrants in Poland, the yields of blackcurrants in Ukraine, the yields of blackcurrants in Germany (the main importer of frozen products and a producer of currants), the volume of frozen blackcurrant exports and the export price of frozen blackcurrants. Apart from that, the qualitative variable COVID-19 was created, which allowed for the greater demand for blackcurrant preserves during the pandemic. In order to determine the factors which significantly influenced the purchase prices of blackcurrants during the period under analysis, the all possible regression method, also known as the best subsets regression, available in the Statistica PL package, was applied. This was a model with two explanatory variables: the export price of frozen blackcurrants and COVID-19. The linear determination coefficient of the estimated econometric model indicated that 90% of the variance of blackcurrant purchase prices was explained by the model.
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Kocabas, Ceren. "Testing for contagion in economic literature." Journal of Governance and Regulation 8, no. 3 (2019): 42–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/jgr_v8_i3_p3.
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The contagion of the financial crisis is an unavoidable fact for the economies of the global system anymore. Therefore measuring contagion, analyzing the propagation of volatility across countries became mainly important research topics among economists. There are many different econometric techniques used to test for contagion effect of financial crises. Transmission of shocks from one country to another can be calculated with four different techniques. The empirical literature mostly based on the techniques of measuring cross-market correlations, GARCH models, cointegration and probit models. In these models, economists use financial or real indicators or both of them in their analyses. As the financial indicators, they generally use share price indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation rate. As the real indicators, they generally use the values of GDP, imports, exports, unemployment rate, etc. The aim of this paper is to underline the prominent empirical studies in the field of contagious crises
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Hacioglu, Umit, Hasan Dincer, and Ismail Erkan Celik. "Conflict Risk and Its Implication on Economy and Financial System." International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies (2147-4486) 2, no. 2 (November 16, 2016): 109. http://dx.doi.org/10.20525/ijfbs.v2i2.638.
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<p>Considering the impacts of the conflict on the economic parameters in terms of macroeconomics, the following factors might affect the profitability of the company: foreign capital outflows, decrease in exports, increase in the interest rates, disruption of the investment climate, increase in the exchange rates, increase in the costs of import entry etc. Due to the expectable decrease in profit shares as to the investors, the contraction in the risk appetite will cause volatility in the prices of equity securities markets based on the impacts of the conflict, and the equity securities will depreciate. In this study, the main contributions on conflict risk and related econometric models have been discussed.</p>
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Basovskiy, Leonid, and Elena Basovskaya. "The Influence of Socio-Economic and Innovative Factors on Labor Productivity in the Central Federal District." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 7, no. 6 (December 18, 2019): 20–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2019-20-22.
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In order to identify the influence of socio-economic and innovative factors on labor productivity, econometric models were built based on cross-sectional statistics from the regions of the Central Federal District. It has been established that in order to increase productivity, it is necessary to increase investment in new fixed assets, foreign investment, the number of workers with higher education, the level of wages, develop transport infrastructure, expand the use of computers and the Internet, the number of researchers with academic degrees. In addition, the number of employees of territorial executive bodies should reduce, the number of university students and scientists with academic degrees should increase, the innovative activity of organizations should increase, and exports should be stimulated.
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Yurdakul, Funda, and Arda Doğruöz. "Seçimlerin Ekonomik Etkileri: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama." International Journal of Social Sciences 5, no. 23 (November 11, 2021): 290–317. http://dx.doi.org/10.52096/usbd.5.23.5.16.
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This study aims to explore the effects of election periods on the economy from the perspective of the “public choice theory”. We selected our variables from among those focused by the research that examine elections from the standpoint of political business cycles; i.e., exports, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Wholesale Price Index(TEFE), the number of unemployed, and non-performing loans. Then, we constructed simultaneous models in which these variables were explored as endogenous variables. We used dummy variables for general and local elections in these models and identified 2002:04-2020:04 as our study period. We estimated the coefficients for the econometric models we constructed by using the Engle-Granger and Dynamic Least Squares methods. Our analysis results demonstrate that manipulative decisions and arrangements made before elections do not always create business cycles. Expenditures during election periods impose a permanent burden on the system and the economic arrangements during election periods may not result in political business cycles. Moreover, it is harder for the government in power to manipulate policy objectives than to manipulate policy instruments. Because policy instruments such as public expenditure and money supply are largely controlled by the government in power, while government intervention in indicators such as Gross National Product, exports, inflation, and unemployment is relatively limited. Keywords: Engle-Granger Method, Dynamic Least Squares method, Political Business Cycles. Jel Code: E32, C01, G18
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Napiórkowski, Tomasz M. "International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment as Innovation Factors of the U.S. Economy." International Journal of Management and Economics 41, no. 1 (October 17, 2014): 60–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ijme-2014-0037.
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Abstract The aim of this research is to asses the hypothesis that foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade have had a positive impact on innovation in one of the most significant economies in the world, the United States (U.S.). To do so, the author used annual data from 1995 to 2010 to build a set of econometric models. In each model, 11 in total) the number of patent applications by U.S. residents is regressed on inward FDI stock, exports and imports of the economy as a collective, and in each of the 10 SITC groups separately. Although the topic of FDI is widely covered in the literature, there are still disagreements when it comes to the impact of foreign direct investment on the host economy [McGrattan, 2011]. To partially address this gap, this research approaches the host economy not only as an aggregate, but also as a sum of its components (i.e., SITC groups), which to the knowledge of this author has not yet been done on the innovation-FDI-trade plane, especially for the U.S. Unfortunately, the study suffers from the lack of available data. For example, the number of patents and other used variables is reported in the aggregate and not for each SITC groups (e.g., trade). As a result, our conclusions regarding exports and imports in a specific SITC category (and the total) impact innovation in the U.S. is reported in the aggregate. General notions found in the literature are first shown and discussed. Second, the dynamics of innovation, trade and inward FDI stock in the U.S. are presented. Third, the main portion of the work, i.e. the econometric study, takes place, leading to several policy applications and conclusions.
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Zhang, Xiuwu, and Chengkun Liu. "Research on Innovation Knowledge Spillover Effect of China’s High-Tech Industry R&D-Base on Multidimensional Spatial Weight Matrices." Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics 22, no. 4 (July 20, 2018): 437–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2018.p0437.
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Based on the panel data of R&D activities of the provincial high-tech industry in China from 1998 to 2014, this paper adopts the spatial weight matrix of different dimensions including geographical distance, technical distance, economic distance, proximity distance, and human capital distance, to construct a spatial econometric model to analyze the knowledge spillover effects of R&D activities through both local and transnational routes. The results show that in the case of spatial auto-correlation of the dependent variables, the results of the spatial panel model are more accurate and reliable than those obtained by the conventional panel model. The spatial coefficients of the spatial econometric model based on five different spatial weight matrices are all very significant, and there is a clear spatial correlation between the R&D activities of high-tech industries in different regions. Labor input and exports have a positive impact on innovation output, but the introduction of technology will hinder independent innovation in China’s high-tech industry, and the impact of capital investment to innovation output is uncertain, as it closely relates to the set of models. In addition, the space knowledge spillover effect through the local approach is larger than that produced by the transnational route.
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Batrancea, Larissa M., Mehmet Ali Balcı, Ömer Akgüller, and Lucian Gaban. "What Drives Economic Growth across European Countries? A Multimodal Approach." Mathematics 10, no. 19 (October 6, 2022): 3660. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math10193660.
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This research study examines the factors that determined economic growth measured by gross domestic product, gross value added, final consumption expenditure of households, and gross fixed capital formation across a sample of 36 European countries during the time frame Q3 2018−Q3 2021. We conducted a panel data analysis with the first-difference generalized method of moments (GMM) approach and cross-section fixed effects. Empirical results estimated with four econometric models indicated a significant robust impact of the independent variables exports, imports, foreign direct investment inflow, foreign direct investment outflow, social contributions, and wages on economic growth proxies. In addition, multiplex network analysis was used to investigate the connection architectures of the 36 countries, and it yielded statistical measurements for all layers in the multi-layered structure. Relevant policy implications of reported empirical results are also addressed.
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Chávez-Bustamante, Felipe, Elliott Mardones-Arias, Julio Rojas-Mora, and Jaime Tijmes-Ihl. "A Forgotten Effects Approach to the Analysis of Complex Economic Systems: Identifying Indirect Effects on Trade Networks." Mathematics 11, no. 3 (January 18, 2023): 531. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math11030531.
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The purpose of this paper is to identify the emergence of indirect trade flows prompted by the export interaction of the world’s economies. Using data on exports from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) for the period 2016–2021, we construct an international trade network which is analyzed through the “forgotten effects theory” that identifies tuples of countries with an origin, intermediary countries, and a destination. This approach intends to spotlight something beyond the analysis of the direct trade network by the identification of second and third-order paths. The analysis using both network analyses, as well as the forgotten effect approaches, which show that the international trade network presents a hub-and-spoke behavior in contrast to most extant research finding a core-periphery structure. The structure is then comprised of three almost separated trade networks and a hub country that bridges commerce between those networks. The contribution of this article is to move the analysis forward from other works that utilize trade networks, including those of econometric nature—such as the ones based on gravity models—by incorporating indirect relationships between countries, which could provide distinctive and novel insights into the study of economic networks.
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Kang, Hyunsoo. "CO2 Emissions Embodied in International Trade and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for OECD and Non-OECD Countries." Sustainability 13, no. 21 (November 2, 2021): 12114. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su132112114.
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This study examined the relationship between CO2 emissions embodied in international trade and economic growth for OECD and non-OECD countries between 2005 and 2015. Unlike the traditional environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which does not account for trade patterns, CO2 emissions embodied in trade balances were adopted in several models. To analyze the panel series, this study utilized econometric procedures: panel regression, the panel unit root test, the panel cointegration test, and panel Granger causality. To investigate evidence supporting the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH), this study constructed an equation including CO2 emissions embodied in net exports as a proportion of consumption. The results from the panel regression model validated the EKC hypothesis, even considering the CO2 emissions embodied in trade. Results of the panel unit root, panel cointegration, and Granger causality tests showed that CO2 emissions embodied in trade and economic growth have bi-directional Granger causality. This study provided evidence for the PHH, although some upper countries of net exporters or net importers for CO2 emissions can be observed. This study highlighted the need to intensify international cooperation to decrease environmental pollutants in both developed and developing countries, and considered the importance of CO2 emissions embodied in trade by expanding globalization.
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Basovskiy, Leonid, and Elena Basovskaya. "Production Functions of Labor Productivity in Modern Russia." Scientific Research and Development. Economics 10, no. 1 (February 16, 2022): 32–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.12737/2587-9111-2022-10-1-32-35.
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To identify the determinants of labor productivity, estimates of the relationship between labor productivity and indicators reflecting the influence of a wide range of socio-economic and innovative factors in the regions of Russia for 2015-2018 were obtained. For 2018 and the aggregate of data for 2015-2018, according to statistics from 82 regions of Russia, econometric models were built in the form of a standard internally linear function - an analogue of the Cobb-Douglas production function. The resulting models made it possible to establish the following. The capital-labor ratio, average monthly wages, the ratio of funds (indicator of income inequality), innovative activity of organizations and exports have a significant positive effect on labor productivity in the region. The number of researchers with advanced degrees and the import of machinery and equipment have a significant negative impact on labor productivity in the region. The negative impact on labor productivity in the number of researchers with advanced degrees is associated with problems caused by the command and control principles of science and education management. The ineffectiveness of the import of machinery and equipment testifies to the imperfection of foreign economic relations.
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Kranjac, David, Krunoslav Zmaic, and Tihana Sudaric. "Croatian medium-term soft wheat market outlook." Journal of Agricultural Sciences, Belgrade 66, no. 1 (2021): 75–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/jas2101075k.
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With Croatia?s accession to the European Union (EU), numerous changes have taken place within the key agricultural markets. This primarily relates to the introduction of Common Agricultural Policy measures and instruments, the convergence of domestic agri-food product prices, the opening of the domestic market and the producer?s adjustment to the business conditions within the EU single market. Sophisticated tools such as partial equilibrium (PE) econometric models are commonly used in the impact assessments of the integration processes and for the development of medium-term market outlook simulations. The aim of this research is to develop a medium-term outlook of the soft wheat market in the Republic of Croatia up to 2030. As an appropriate tool, the AGMEMOD (PE) model was used to provide baseline simulations. The model results simulate future trends of main agrarian policy indicators (sown area, production, yield, import, export and average producer price) on the soft wheat market. The Croatian soft wheat market outlook assumes ceteris paribus market conditions with the existing agricultural policy structure until the end of the simulated period. The main findings of the simulated outlook indicate a slight growth trend of sown areas, continued growth of yield and production, along with soft wheat exports increase in Croatia by 2030 compared to 2018. Furthermore, the soft wheat degree of self-sufficiency in Croatia is expected to be 114% by the end of the simulated period.
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Konkina, Vera S. "External expansion of the dairy market: Arguments "for" and "against"." Russian Economic Journal, no. 2 (April 13, 2022): 48–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.33983/0130-9757-2022-2-48-59.
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The Russian agro-industrial complex is the most important branch of the national economy participating in the program of import substitution and ensuring food security of the country.
At the moment, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation is implementing an export-oriented model of agricultural development. In the article, the author analyses the dynamics of foreign trade operations in the dairy food market. The information base for the integrated assessment was the data of Rosstat and the Customs Service on group 04 Dairy products TNVED. The dairy industry within the country shows progressive growth — gross production has been increasing since 2017. However, domestic agricultural producers cannot cover the domestic need for milk and dairy products. As a result — an increase in foreign economic operations. The analysis showed an increase in exports and imports. This is due to the influence of many factors. Factors and trends affecting their volumes in the short and long term were identified — the composition and structure of the balance of milk and dairy products resources, average per capita household income, average prices for dairy products, milk consumption per capita per year, volumes of foreign trade operations, etc. The built dynamic econometric models made it possible to distinguish limiting factors for each type of foreign economic transactions. For imports, these are average consumer prices for milk and annual consumption of dairy products per capita. For export — average consumer prices for dairy products. By influencing these factors, it is possible to ensure an increase in demand and supply in the dairy industry.
The conclusions made in the article can be used to develop and substantiate state agri-food policy.
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Łukiewska, Katarzyna, and Małgorzata Juchniewicz. "Identification of the Relationships between Competitive Potential and Competitive Position of the Food Industry in the European Union." Sustainability 13, no. 8 (April 8, 2021): 4160. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13084160.
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The competitiveness of the food industry, which is among the most important areas in the Central European economy, is a significant and topical research area in economics. The sector is particularly important for long-term sustainable growth in Central European national economies. Its high competitiveness is an important stabiliser in an environment of global economic instability. This study aimed to assess the relationships between elements of competitive potential and the competitive position of the food industry in E.U. countries. The relationships between these categories were examined using econometric models with the use of panel data. The results of the spatial-temporal modelling of the panel data confirmed the significant impact of production potential on the share of exports, profitability and the synthetic competitive position index, the impact of labour productivity on all analysed competitive position ratios, the impact of labour costs on the trade coverage, profitability and overall competitive position and the positive impact of innovation on profitability. It was found that labour productivity was of the greatest importance in building a competitive position. The results of the research can be used by food industry companies and government authorities in creating competitive advantages for the food industry in international markets.
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Galanos, George, Thomas Poufinas, and Charalampos Agiropoulos. "Investigating the Relationship Between Country Competitiveness and Financial Market Development in Times of Crisis." Research in World Economy 12, no. 4 (September 6, 2021): 38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5430/rwe.v12n4p38.
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A country’s competitiveness depends on many factors related to general governance, effectiveness of markets, social development, and business perspectives. The role of financial markets for economic growth has been the subject of many scientific studies; most of them concluded that a well-developed financial system should improve the efficiency of financing decisions, favouring a better allocation of resources and thereby economic growth. The financial crisis that started in the summer of 2007 is still testing the strength of the global economic system. It started in the financial sector, but is now having an important impact on the real economy. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between a country’s financial market development and its competitiveness in particular in times of crisis, with the use of a series of econometric models. We find evidence that financial market development is affected (with the anticipated sign of impact) by the Global Competitiveness Index, the GDP per capita and the (un)employment level of a country. It is also related (with an unexpected direction of impact) with the foreign market size and exports, as well as infrastructure. Our findings can be used by the policymakers of countries which wish to improve their competitiveness so as to steer the determining variables in the desired directions and approach their desired competitiveness levels.
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Hummels, David, and Peter J. Klenow. "The Variety and Quality of a Nation's Exports." American Economic Review 95, no. 3 (May 1, 2005): 704–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/0002828054201396.
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Large economies export more in absolute terms than do small economies. We use data on shipments by 126 exporting countries to 59 importing countries in 5,000 product categories to answer the question: How? Do big economies export larger quantities of each good (the intensive margin), a wider set of goods (the extensive margin), or higher-quality goods? We find that the extensive margin accounts for around 60 percent of the greater exports of larger economies. Within categories, richer countries export higher quantities at modestly higher prices. We compare these findings to some workhorse trade models. Models with Armington national product differentiation have no extensive margin, and incorrectly predict lower prices for the exports of larger economies. Models with Krugman firm-level product differentiation do feature a prominent extensive margin, but overpredict the rate at which variety responds to exporter size. Models with quality differentiation, meanwhile, can match the price facts. Finally, models with fixed costs of exporting to a given market might explain the tendency of larger economies to export a given product to more countries.
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Voloshenko, Ksenia Yu, and Tatiana E. Drok. "Econometric Analysis of the Impact of the Intensity of Transboundary Activities on the Level of Economic Complexity: The Case Study of European Countries." REGIONOLOGY 27, no. 4 (December 30, 2019): 602–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.109.027.201904.602-632.
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Introduction. Development of countries, regions and individual ecosystems occurs in the paradigm of innovative and technological change, the crucial element being the production knowledge and competencies. Their ranging in terms of transforming the complexity of the products that the country exports has been embodied and developed in the approach of economic complexity. However, insufficient attention is paid to the study of economic complexity in the context of transboundary processes that impact the development of territories. The objective of this study is to measure the impact of the intensity of transboundary relations on the change in economic complexity through the case study of European countries using the indicators of transboundary specialization of foreign trade turnover. Materials and Methods. The study employed the methods of econometric analysis. Information from the UN Comtrade database, as well as from the special resources for analyzing the economic complexity of countries, the Atlas of Economic Complexity and the Observatory of Economic Complexity, was used as the source data for calculations and measurements. Results. European countries have been classified into 3 subpanels based on Gaussian mixture distributions. The intensity of the impact of the transboundary activities on the complexity of the economy has been identified employing the panel cointegration method based on the constructed models (the combined model and models with fixed and random effects), which were supplemented by data analysis using the fully modified least squares method and the dynamic least squares method. Long-term interdependence between economic complexity and the intensity of transboundary activities has been identified. Discussion and Conclusion. It has been established that the influence of the transboundary interaction factor weakens as the economic complexity increases and under certain conditions it has a negative impact. The revealed dependence is due to the increasing role of global processes rather than the transboundary ones as the economy becomes more complex and more oriented towards the global market. The research findings contribute to further development of the Theory of Economic Complexity; they significantly expand the practical scope of its application, play an important role in understanding and further research on the opportunities and limitations for the development of territories differing in the transboundary cooperation intensity.
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Dreyer, Heiko, Svetlana Fedoseeva, and Roland Herrmann. "Gravity Meets Pricing to Market: What a Combined-Method Approach Tells Us on German Beer Exports and Pricing." Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik 237, no. 4 (October 26, 2017): 295–328. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2017-0106.
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Abstract Gravity and pricing to market (PTM) models have been used to elaborate determinants of bilateral trade and export pricing for different countries and branches. Typically, only one of the two methods was chosen. We show in a stepwise approach how a combination of both methods can reveal novel results on the determinants of exports and export pricing behaviour. For the case of German beer exports, we show that structural differences exist between markets on which exporters apply either PTM or non-PTM strategies. German beer exporters apply PTM strategies, in particular local-currency stabilization, on those markets where imports are very sensitive to exchange-rate changes. Non-PTM strategies, i. e. full exchange-rate transmission, occur on export markets with insensitive reactions. Apart from PTM strategies, German beer exports are strongly dependent on policy variables such as the introduction of the Euro and the partner country’s membership in the EU.
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Mukhametov, Daniyar. "Exploring the Influence of Government Data Performance on Knowledge Capabilities: Towards a Data-Oriented Political Economy." Social Sciences 11, no. 9 (August 26, 2022): 384. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/socsci11090384.
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This article is devoted to the study of the influence of government data performance on knowledge capabilities. Knowledge capabilities play a key role in open innovation and creation of citizen-oriented products and services. However, it is necessary to assess the role of the information environment in the development of knowledge capabilities, including government data as a product and a component of the information environment. Government data performance is expressed through the statistical capacity score and its three dimensions: periodicity assessment of statistical capacity, methodology assessment of statistical capacity, and source data assessment of statistical capacity. Knowledge capabilities are expressed through economic complexity, which reflects the diversity and uniqueness of the production capabilities inherent in each country’s exports. Econometric analysis is based on dynamic panel data models that quantify the effect of government data performance on economic complexity. The final dataset includes 94 countries and their indicators for the selected variables for 2004–2019. The models show that government data performance and its various dimensions influence economic complexity because government data provide a detailed and publicly available description of the economic space, including available resources and potential tasks. Based on these data, agents can produce dissimilar and unique products. This logic may be true in general for the influence of government data performance on knowledge capabilities: structured and complete government data reduces the cost of information analysis and provides information support for decisions. The results of the study contribute to the ideas of a data-oriented political economy. Government participation in value creation includes various forms of indirect influence. The provision of government data is one of these forms. The development of collective data governance and collaborative data projects makes it possible to create more complete datasets and stimulates citizen involvement and deliberation.
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Supriyatna, Rio Kartika, Dedi Junaedi, and Evi Novita. "PENGARUH STABILITAS MONETER TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN NASIONAL." Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah 1, no. 2 (September 30, 2019): 119–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.47467/alkharaj.v1i2.57.
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ABSTRACTObjectives of this research is to analyze: Does monetary stability affect Indonesia's GDP?; Does the difference ingovernance regimes affect the governance of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's GDP?; Doesmonetary stability affect Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?; Does the difference in government regimes affect themanagement of monetary stability in supporting the achievement of Indonesia's per capita income (PCI)?.The research method uses descriptive-quantitative analysis with saturated sampling techniques and secondary datafrom Bank Indonesia, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the WorldBank, and other reference sources. The data is in the form of time series data from the period 1990-2019. The dependentvariable is the value of GDP and GDP per capita (ICP). While the independent variable: the exchange rate, the money supply,the inflation rate, direct investment, financing, the state budget, the amount of debt (US $), the number of exports, the numberof imports, and the dummy variable period of the reform era government with the era of the New Order Government(Soeharto) as comparison or reference. The processed data were analyzed in quantitative descriptive with multipleregression models with dummy variables.The result is that some indicators of monetary stability (money supply, exchange rate, BI rate, investment, imports, andthe state budget) have a significant effect on the economy (GDP). While inflation, financing and foreign debt did notsignificantly affect GDP achievement. The Reformation government regimes (BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, MegawatiSukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) are different and better than the New Order (Soeharto)government in managing stability towards achieving GDP. The econometrics model is GDP$ = 178,542 + 0.0999 * M1M2 -0.0186 * EXCHANGE $ + 9.5872 * BI_RATE + 1.1935 * INVEST $ - 0.000225 * IMPORT + 0.181 * APBN + 182.488 * REZIM1 +171.038 * REZIM2 + 199.86 * REZIM3 + REVIMIM3 + 214.599 * REZIM5. Some indicators of monetary stability (money supply,exchange rate, BI rate, investment, import and APBN) also have a significant effect on GDP per capita. While inflation,financing and foreign debt did not significantly affect the achievement of GDP per capita. The Reform era government regime(BJ Habibie, Abdurrahman Wahid, Megawati Sukarnoputeri, Soesilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Joko Widodo) differed andmore better than the New Order era administration (Soeharto) in governance stability. to the achievement of GDP per capita.The econometric model: PCIUS$ = 5.7594 + 0.0032 * M1M2 - 0.0006 * EXCHANGE$ + 0.3092 * BI_RATE + 0.0385 * INVEST$ -0.0000072 * IMPORT + 0.0058 * APBN + 5.8867 * REZIM1 + 5.5173 * REZIM2 + 6.4471 * REZIM3 + 6.ZZ * REZIM5.JEL CLASSIFICATION: E52, E58, E63Keywords: economy, financial, GDP, monetary, PCI, stability
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Jaiblai, Prince, and Vijay Shenai. "The Determinants of FDI in Sub-Saharan Economies: A Study of Data from 1990–2017." International Journal of Financial Studies 7, no. 3 (August 12, 2019): 43. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs7030043.
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Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can bring in much needed capital, particularly to developing countries, help improve manufacturing and trade sectors, bring in more efficient technologies, increase local production and exports, create jobs and develop local skills, and bring about improvements in infrastructure and overall be a contributor to sustainable economic growth. With all these desirable features, it becomes relevant to ascertain the factors which attract FDI to an economy or a group of adjacent economies. This paper explores the determinants of FDI in ten sub-Saharan economies: Liberia, Sierra Leone, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Cameroun, and Senegal. After an extensive literature review of theories and empirical research, using a set of cross-sectional data over the period 1990–2017, two econometric models are estimated with FDI/GDP (the ratio of Foreign Direct Investment to Gross Domestic Product) as the dependent variable, and with inflation, exchange rate changes, openness, economy size (GDP), income levels (GNI/capita (Gross National Income) per capita), and infrastructure as the independent variables. Over the period, higher inflows of FDI in relation to GDP appear to be have been attracted to the markets with better infrastructure, smaller markets, and lower income levels, with higher openness and depreciation in the exchange rate, though the coefficients of the last two variables are not significant. These results show the type of FDI attracted to investments in this region and are evaluated from theoretical and practical viewpoints. FDI is an important source of finance for developing economies. On average, between 2013 and 2017, FDI accounted for 39 percent of external finance for developing economies. Policy guidelines are formulated for the enhancement of FDI inflows and further economic development in this region. Such a study of this region has not been made in the recent past.
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Tseng, Shoiw-Mei. "CEE’s export instability toward East Asian markets: Evidence from panel ARDL models." Acta Oeconomica 67, no. 1 (March 2017): 99–115. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/032.2017.67.1.6.
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Exports play a significant role in the economic catching-up transition in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The East Asian market has emerged for CEE’s exports not only because of its dynamic economy, but also because of the European debt crisis, the political tension between Ukraine and Russia, and the recent threat of terrorism. This study utilises panel ARDL models to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between export instability and commodity concentration and geographic concentration. The datasets cover the 2004–2014 period for the trade of all the CEE countries with 10 East Asian marketplaces. The results of the causal relationships show significance in the long-run, but not in the short-run. This study suggests that the CEE export policy toward East Asia is likely to consider the impact of trade concentrations on export instability.