Academic literature on the topic 'Exports Econometric models'
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Journal articles on the topic "Exports Econometric models"
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Amoussou, Amour Gbaguidi, and Aristide Medenou. "Application of ARIMA models on Export potential Indicator." African Journal of Applied Statistics 8, no. 2 (July 1, 2021): 1165–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2021.1165.263.
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The export potential indicator is designed for countries that aim to support established exports by increasing exports to new or existing target markets, and several studies are being managed using various mathematical model to predict the export values. Here, we propose an econometric model that could be useful to predict the export values. We performed the ARIMA model to evaluate the realized and unrealized export potentials of products. We therefore propose to carry out actions in favor of increasing the export potential.
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Ghauri, Sahir Pervaiz, Rizwan Raheem Ahmed, Dalia Streimikiene, and Justas Streimikis. "Forecasting Exports and Imports by using Autoregressive (AR) with Seasonal Dummies and Box-Jenkins Approaches: A Case of Pakistan." Engineering Economics 31, no. 3 (June 29, 2020): 291–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.31.3.25323.
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This research aims to evaluate two econometric models to forecast imports and exports for the financial year (FY) 2020. For this purpose, we used the annual exports and imports data of Pakistan from FY2002 to FY2019. Thus, in this regard, we employed, and compared the results of two econometrics models such as Box Jenkins or Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Auto-Regressive (AR) with seasonal dummies. For examining the precision of forecasting, we employed mean absolute error and root mean square error approaches. The findings of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) reveal that the ARIMA or Box Jenkins approach provides better accuracy of the forecast for the exports as compared to the AR model with dummies. However, Auto-Regressive (AR) model has demonstrated more precision for the imports as compared to the Box Jenkins model. Hence, the projected forecasting for the growth of export is 1.87% for the FY2020 and projected forecasting for the import demonstrates a negative variation of -1.61% for the FY2020. The findings of the undertaken study recommend the policymakers of Pakistan to take corrective measures to increase exports and to prevent the country from the trade deficit. The policymakers of Pakistan should give more incentives to the exporters and decrease the cost of doing business to be more competitive than the regional economies such as India, Bangladesh, and China.
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Kaboudan, Mahmoud A. "Oil Revenue and Kuwait's Economy: An Econometric Approach." International Journal of Middle East Studies 20, no. 1 (February 1988): 45–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020743800057500.
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This paper presents a macroeconomic model for a small developing oil-exporting economy: Kuwait. The model is a simultaneous system of difference equations. Historic effects of changes in revenues from oil exports on the country's economic conditions are simulated. The model is then used to forecast these conditions through 1990, and to test two fiscal policy alternatives under the assumption that revenues from Kuwait's oil exports will remain constant from 1986 to 1990. The following are key words: developing economies; oil-exporting economies; Middle East economies; Kuwait; Kuwait's economy; policy models; macroeconomic models; econometric models; macroeconometric models; forecasting models; and policy models.
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Plaskon, Svitlana, Halina Seniv, Ivan Novosad, and Vadym Masliy. "APPLICATION OF ECONOMETRIC MODELING IN THE EVALUATION OF FOREIGN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY OF UKRAINE." Economic Analysis, no. 30(3) (2020): 25–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.35774/econa2020.03.025.
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Introduction. Foreign trade operations significantly affect the development of each country's economy, in particular the value of gross domestic product, which is one of the main indicators of economic development and welfare of population. Therefore, it is necessary to study and model the impact of exports, imports and net exports on macroeconomic indicators of Ukraine. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to analyze publications that consider export-import operations of Ukraine, study of statistical information in this area, construction and analysis of econometric models of the dynamics of foreign trade operations of Ukraine and their impact on gross domestic product. Method. The article uses regression-correlation analysis as one of the main research methods; time series theory; methods of mathematical modeling. Results. The dynamics of foreign economic operations and gross domestic product of Ukraine are researched and analyzed. It is revealed that the balance of export-import operations has a significant impact on the gross domestic product of Ukraine. An econometric model of the dependence of the nominal gross domestic product on the value of exports of goods and services (coefficient of determination 0.9795) is calculated, using statistical information for 2005-2019 years. It is substantiated that with the increase in exports of goods and services by UAH 1 billion Ukraine's nominal GDP grows by an average of UAH 2.2642 billion. The value of coefficients of import dependence and coverage of import by export in foreign economic operations of Ukraine are analyzed. It is noted that the coefficient of import dependence significantly exceeds the allowable level in the study period, due to certain imbalances in foreign trade relations. The coefficient of coverage of imports by exports only in 2005 was greater than one, and during 2006-2019 it became less than one. In this regard, it is necessary to increase export operations, obtain a positive balance of payments, make effective economic and political decisions to increase exports of Ukrainian goods and services, reduce import dependence, using and implementing innovative methods of production and management.
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Rieländer, Jan, and Bakary Traoré. "Explaining Diversification in Exports Across Higher Manufacturing Content — What is the Role of Commodities?" Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy 07, no. 02 (May 4, 2016): 1650007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793993316500071.
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This paper adds new empirical evidence to the recent literature about the ways countries develop strong productive capacities by analyzing the patterns of export diversification across different levels of manufacturing content. In addition to the measures commonly used to study diversification, such as the number of active export lines and measures of “discoveries in exports”, we propose two new filters based on the concept of revealed comparative advantage (RCA). We use trade data at the 4-digit level for 176 countries from 1992 until 2011, and we classify all the products into three manufacturing categories (unprocessed, semi processed and finished goods). Data confirms that growing countries continue to add new commodities to their exports basket until they reach around US$ 25,000 of GDP per capita. More interestingly, we found that for many countries expanding the spectrum of commodities exported with comparative advantage (RCA) actually contribute to boosting new productive capacities in manufacturing sectors. This finding is robust to different econometric models and different country groups.
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Mohd Thas Thaker, Hassanudin, Tan Siew Ee, and Sushant Vaidik. "Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Econometric Evidence from Malaysia." Journal of International Business and Economy 14, no. 2 (December 1, 2013): 94–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.51240/jibe.2013.2.5.
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The objective of this paper is to test the validity of the Export-led Growth Hypothesis (ELGH) in the Malaysian economy. Malaysia has always been considered to have attained its growth primarily through exports (Okposin, Bassey, Hamid, Halim, and Boon, 1999; Mun, 2008; Mahathir, 1990). In the past, several studies on this topic have been conducted but their analyses were limited to relationships using Bound-testing, Autoregressive –Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Toda Yamamoto analysis. Empirical data and analysis in our paper cover a 21 – year span and quarterly time-series data (1991:Q1 – 2012:Q4) are used to test this ELG hypothesis. Also, many dynamic econometric measures including the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillip – Perron (PP) unit root tests, Cointegration test as well as the Vector Error Correction model (VEC) for the long run have been applied. Based on these generic models, both real exports and capital stock (productivity) are found to have stimulated positive adjustments to economic growth in the long run whereas real exchange rate is found to have influenced economic growth negatively. Overall, our conclusion is that the ELG hypothesis seems applicable to Malaysia in the long run.
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Mahmoud, E., J. Motwani, and G. Rice. "Forecasting US exports: An illustration using time series and econometric models." Omega 18, no. 4 (1990): 375–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(90)90027-7.
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Maune, Alexander. "Trade in Services-Economic Growth Nexus: An Analysis of the Growth Impact of Trade in Services in SADC Countries." Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies 11, no. 2(J) (May 13, 2019): 58–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.22610/jebs.v11i2(j).2819.
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The article analysed the trade in services led growth in ten selected countries in the Southern African Development Community region using econometric regression models. Panel data obtained from the World Bank and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development databases for the period 1992 to 2015 was analysed. Five variables were used in the econometric analysis. The marginal effects of service and goods exports were positive while those of goods and service imports were negative and highly significant as was expected from literature. Service exports registered an impact that was almost threefold that of service imports and greater than goods exports. Policy-makers are encouraged to, clearly define their trade in service strategy and reduce or remove trade restrictions. The study is of importance to researchers, the private sector and government policymakers.
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Goretzki, Philipp, Oleksandr Perekhozhuk, Thomas Glauben, and Jens-Peter Loy. "Price discrimination and market power in the international fertiliser market: empirical evidence for exports from Russia." Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal 5, no. 2 (June 20, 2019): 5–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.51599/are.2019.05.02.01.
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Purpose. In 2012, Russia became the world’s second-largest exporter increasing its potash exports from 1996 to 2012 more than two times. The top five countries control more than 50 % of the world’s exports, particularly 53.4 % (38.0 mln MT) for nitrogen, 73.4 % (3.5 mln MT) for phosphate and 90.8 % (35.5 mln MT) for potash. The objective of this study is to analyse the market structure and market concentration of the Russian export company in the international fertiliser market, and to develop hypotheses about the oligopolistic market behaviour. The empirical part of this study tests the hypotheses by employing econometric models to provide evidence for market power and price discrimination in the international fertiliser market.
Methodology / approach. The empirical analysis in this study relies on the theoretical framework of pricing-to-market (PTM) pioneered by Krugman (1986, 1987). Following Krugman’s groundbreaking approach, Knetter (1989) developed an empirical model testing the PTM hypothesis. The major advantages of the Knetter’s model are that the pricing behaviour of the export country towards the import countries can be estimated with public statistical data for the export statistics of the export country and bilateral exchange rates between the currencies of the export and import countries.
Results. This study presents empirical evidence for the behaviour of Russian exporters in the international fertiliser market. The estimation results indicate that market power in the export market for nitrogen fertilisers is exercised by Russian exporters in more than two-thirds of the destination countries and in the export market for potash fertilisers in eight out of nine countries. The exercising market power in the export market for potash fertilisers is much more pronounced than in the nitrogen fertiliser export market.
Originality / scientific novelty. Primarily against the background of increased market concentration by the companies in the fertiliser markets and regarding the aforementioned cartel dispute, this study constitutes a first attempt to close the research gap in the empirical literature and to promote empirical research on the market behaviour of export companies in the international markets for nitrogen and potash fertilisers.
Practical value / implications. This study uses econometric techniques to examine the collapse of the potash cartel on the use of price discrimination and the exercising of market power in the international fertiliser market by Russia. The descriptive analysis shows that Russia plays an important role in the export of nitrogen and potash on the world market and many importing destinations. Often Russia in addition to the high market share also has no or few competitors in the various destinations, which supports speculation of exercising market power.
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Gerasimov, Aleksey N., Evgeny I. Gromov, Yury S. Skripnichenko, Oksana P. Grigoryeva, and Victoria Yu Skripnichenko. "Models and Forecasts of the Export Potential of the Regional Economic System." REGIONOLOGY 30, no. 4 (December 30, 2022): 762–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.15507/2413-1407.121.030.202204.762-782.
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Introduction. The export potential of the regional agricultural market causes great interest from both the scientific community and government agencies. Many scientific studies are devoted to the search for methods to increase the export potential in order to ensure the sustainable development of regional economic systems. The article proposes and tests the original author’s algorithm for creating a dynamic econometric model for forecasting the volumes of production, sales and exports of the main types of livestock products at the regional level. The purpose of the article is to assess the export potential of the main products of the regional agricultural market based on the built dynamic econometric models. Materials and Methods. The research is based on a set of empirical data of result and input variables characterizing the production, sales and export of the main livestock products in the region for the period 2010–2020. Research methods include dynamic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting. The dynamic analysis carried out made it possible to assess the change in the production, sale and export of the main agricultural products in the region, to assess the current trends. Based on the constructed econometric models, the most significant factors influencing the resulting variables were identified, the specifications and verification of the models were carried out. The method of extrapolation of the identified trends made it possible to evaluate the predicted values of the resulting variables for the medium term. Results. Based on the selected input variables, models of production, sale and export of milk, wool and eggs by agricultural producers in the region were built. From a variety of alternative models, models with the best statistical quality characteristics were selected. The high level of quality of the obtained models made it possible to use them for predictive calculations of the levels of resulting variables for the period 2021–2026. Comparison of the results of the forecasts made it possible to identify the types of livestock products that already have a high level of exportability. In addition, types of products with a low level of exportability were identified, which have a high potential for increase. Discussion and Conclusion. As a result of using econometric modeling methods, dynamic models were obtained that made it possible to obtain a forecast for the development of livestock in a region with a high export potential in the near future. The practical significance of this article lies in the possibility of influencing the production, sale and export of livestock products in the region through a change in the corresponding set of factor variables of the models. Thus, the resulting dynamic models can be used both by agricultural producers for planning economic activities, and by regional authorities when drawing up regional development programs.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Exports Econometric models"
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Savard, Marielle. "Impact of Canadian stabilization programs on pork exports to the United States." Thesis, McGill University, 1989. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=55675.
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Faleiros, João Paulo Martin. "Modelo \'export-led growth\' : evidências empíricas em uma perspectiva não linear." Universidade de São Paulo, 2008. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12140/tde-14052008-172702/.
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Esse trabalho faz uma avaliação não linear sobre \"Export-Led Growth\" (ELG), por meio do modelo MR-STVAR. O tratamento não linear aqui desenvolvido assumiu que a trajetória da taxa de crescimento do produto, ao longo do tempo, pode alternar entre quatro diferentes tipos de regimes. Cada um destes se caracteriza como uma combinação entre altas e baixas taxas de crescimento, tanto do produto, como das exportações. Realizando o teste de causalidade de Granger, nessa estrutura não linear, é possível verificar se a taxa trimestral de crescimento do valor das exportações aumenta a capacidade preditiva do crescimento do PIB. Portanto, esse enfoque possibilita expandir a análise, até então realizada, de que as contribuições das taxas de crescimento das exportações, às taxas de crescimento do produto, são lineares ao longo do tempo. E essa última perspectiva, implicitamente assume uma dinâmica temporal uniforme, bastante restritiva em termos da complexidade que ronda o padrão de desenvolvimento econômico de uma nação. O modelo MR-STVAR foi aplicado para um conjunto de 7 países, Estados Unidos, Canadá, Japão, Hong Kong, Coréia do Sul, Brasil, Chile e México, além de Hong Kong.The aim of this thesis is to evaluate Export-Led Growth hypothesis through MR-STVAR. If its model is assumed, the pattern of growth alternates among four distinct regimes. Each of them is characterized by the combination of high and low rates of output and export growth. To verify if the value of export quarterly growth increases the forecasting capabilities of output quarterly growth, it is applied a Granger causality test. Hence, this approach contributes to the analysis of traditional literature that supposes a linear view of development. The traditional literature, in general, verify ELG hypothesis using a Granger causality test in a linear framework. The MR-STVAR was applied to seven countries, United States, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Chile and Mexico, furthermore, Hong Kong, special administrative region of the People\'s Republic of China.
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Salman, Abdul Khalik Abbas. "An econometric study of export instability and stabilisation policies in the Iraqi economy." Thesis, Cardiff University, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.329663.
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Ato, Emma. "Les comportements des ménages agricoles face à la commercialisation des produits vivriers en République centrafricaine." Clermont-Ferrand 1, 1996. http://www.theses.fr/1996CLF10178.
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La commercialisation des produits vivriers doit rester au centre des préoccupations des autorités politiques dans la mesure où elle explique en grande partie les faibles niveaux de production vivrière en Afrique au Sud du Sahara. La pertinence de cette hypothèse réside dans le fait que la commercialisation constitue un facteur déterminant dans le développement de la production agricole, d’autant que la plupart des économies africaines repose sur l’agriculture. Les marchés agricoles ont été le plus souvent organisés dans les pays africains en faveur des cultures d’exportation et la priorité continue de leur être accordée. Les performances agricoles insuffisantes enregistrées pendant ces dernières décennies en Afrique au Sud du Sahara et plus particulièrement en République centrafricaine, nous amène à nous demander s’il n’y a pas de divergence entre les objectifs de l’Etat, qui cherche avant tout à maximiser ses recettes fiscales (prélèvement sur les exportations), et ceux des paysans, qui cherchent plutôt à satisfaire d’autres besoins (consommation, revenu, …). Si tel est le cas, l’analyse des comportements des ménages agricoles face aux contraintes de production et de commercialisation devient une nécessité avant la mise en place de toute action de politique économique visant à promouvoir le secteur agricole. A défaut de pouvoir étudier un modèle de comportement agricole et/ou de surplus commercialisable, faute de données micro-économiques, nous avons appréhendé les réactions des paysans par rapport aux signaux du marché (prix …) et par rapport à d’autres variables pouvant affecter la production en utilisant le modèle d’offre de Nerlove avec un mécanisme à correction d’erreur. Les résultats des estimations économétriques de l’offre de vivriers et de celle du coton tendent à confirmer l’hypothèse d’ajustement graduel des producteurs et à mettre en lumière le rôle important joué par les prix dans la production agricole. Dans tous les cas, la politique d’administration de prix entreprise par l’Etat centrafricain ne semble pas avoir eu un effet significatif sur l’offre des vivriers comme dans le cas du coton faute de structure de commercialisation appropriée. De plus, le comportement des paysans paraît beaucoup plus flexible dans le processus d’ajustement quand il s’agit de culture de renteThe commercialization of food products remains the main concern of political authorities in so far as it explains in large part the weak levels of food output in Sub Saharan Africa. The relevance of this hypothesis resides in the fact that commercialization constitutes a determining factor in the development of agricultural production, the more so as the majority of African economies depend on agriculture. Agricultural markets have most often been established in African countries in favor of export goods and these countries are still giving them a priority status. The insufficient agricultural performances recorded during the recent decades in Sub-Saharan Africa, and specially in the Central Africa Republic, leads us to ask if there doesn’t exist a divergence between the objectives of the government, which seeks above all to maximise its fiscal receipts (increase in exports), and those of the farmers who prefer satisfying other needs (consumption, income). If this is the case, the analysis if the behavior of agricultural household, confronted by production and commercialization constraints, becomes necessary before the implantation of any economic policy decisions aimed at the promotion of agricultural sector. For want of being able to study a model of agricultural household behavior and/or of marketable surplus, due to a lack of the micro-economic data, we estimated the farmers’ reactions, as regards market signals (price) and as regards other variables which could exercise an effect on agricultural production, by using the Nerlove supply model, incorporating an error correction mechanism. The results of the econometric estimation for the supply of food crops and cotton tend to confirm the hypothesis of gradual adjustment by the producers and to highlight the important role payed by prices in agricultural production. In all cases, the price administration policy undertaken by the Cantral Africa government does not seem to have a significate effect on the supply of food products as it did in the case of cotton, due to the adoption of an appropriate commercialization structures. Moreover, the farmers’ behavior should appear a great deal more flexible in the adjustment process when it is a matter of export foods
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Erasmus, Coert Frederik. "Determinants of asset quality in South African banks." Thesis, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/25138.
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The maturity transformation of deposits is a primary driver of economic growth, as loans enable borrowers to spend funds, thereby growing the economy. However, if borrowers cannot repay their loans, the asset quality of banks deteriorate, resulting in non-performing loans or, worse, an economic crisis. An understanding of how macroeconomic and microeconomic determinants impact bank asset quality in South Africa can contribute to knowledge of the bank asset quality phenomenon in the African context. Due to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, the introduction of new legislation and the value of gold exports, the South African economy presents an opportunity to make an original contribution to the knowledge of determinants that influence bank asset quality. In addition to studying bank asset quality determinants that are contested in research, this study also aims to determine whether a superior returns determinant of non-performing loans exists when comparing a bank’s profitability determinants, namely return on assets, return on equity and interest income on loans.
This study applied panel data regression analysis, making use of a balanced panel approach, to study the determinants of bank asset quality. This approach recontextualises the existing bank asset quality theory for the South African financial sector. The results indicate that South Africa is not resilient against the impact of global financial crises trickling through international trade linkages and that regulatory changes do not instantly improve bank asset quality, and may even reduce the short-term asset quality. Moreover, bank asset quality in South Africa is sensitive to the total value of gold exports. It is evident from the profitability measures that the interest income on loans is the most suitable profitability measure of bank asset quality.
This study provides an original contribution to bank asset quality determinants and recommends that regulators should pre-emptively determine the impact of new legislation on bank asset quality. Furthermore, interest income on loans as a profitability measure provides the most accurate results. Lastly, a single-country bank asset quality analysis is important, especially for economies that have commodity exports that significantly weigh in on the bank asset mix.Die termyntransformasie rakende deposito's is die primêre dryfkrag vir groei in die ekonomie: Lenings maak dit vir leners moontlik om fondse te bestee, wat die ekonomie laat groei. Indien hierdie leners hul lenings egter nie kan terugbetaal nie, gaan die gehalte van bankbates agteruit, wat tot wanpresterende lenings of, nog erger, tot 'n ekonomiese krisis kan lei. As begryp kan word hoe makro-ekonomiese en mikro-ekonomiese bepalende faktore op die gehalte van bankbates in Suid-Afrika inwerk, kan dit bydra tot kennis van die verskynsel van bankbategehalte in die Afrika-konteks. In die lig van die 2008/2009 wêreldwye finansiële krisis, die uitvaardiging van nuwe wetgewing en die waarde van gouduitvoere bied die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie ’n geleentheid om ’n oorspronklike bydrae te lewer tot kennis van die bepalende faktore wat bankbategehalte beïnvloed. Benewens die bestudering van die bepalende faktore van die gehalte van bankbates wat in navorsing redelik omstrede is, het hierdie studie ten doel om, wanneer 'n bank se winsgewendheidsbepalers, naamlik opbrengs op bates, opbrengs op ekwiteit (eiekapitaal) en rente-inkomste op lenings, met mekaar vergelyk word, vas te stel of daar ’n superieure opbrengsbepaler van wanpresterende lenings bestaan. Vir hierdie studie is ’n regressieontleding van paneeldata uitgevoer, en daar is van ’n gebalanseerde paneelbenadering gebruik gemaak om die bepalende faktore van bankbategehalte te bestudeer. Hierdie benadering herkontekstualiseer die bestaande bankbategehalteteorie vir die Suid-Afrikaanse finansiële sektor. Die resultate van die studie dui daarop dat Suid-Afrika nie veerkragtig is om die uitwerking van wêreldwye finansiële krisisse teen te werk wat met internasionale handelskakelings deursyfer nie en dat reguleringsveranderinge nie dadelik die bankbategehalte verbeter nie; dit kan inteendeel die korttermynbategehalte verlaag. Bowendien is die bankbategehalte in Suid-Afrika gevoelig vir die totale waarde van gouduitvoere. Dit blyk uit die winsgewendheidsmaatstawwe dat die rente-inkomste op lenings die mees geskikte winsgewendheidsmaatstaf van bankbategehalte is. Hierdie studie lewer ’n oorspronklike bydrae tot die bepalers van bankbategehalte en beveel aan dat reguleerders vooruit reeds die uitwerking van nuwe wetgewing op bankbategehalte moet bepaal. Daarby voorsien rente-inkomste op lenings as winsgewendheidsmaatstaf die akkuraatste resultate. Laastens is ’n ontleding van ’n enkele land se bankbategehalte van belang, in die besonder vir ekonomieë met kommoditeitsuitvoere wat beduidend tot die samestelling van bankbates bydra.
Kadimo ya nako ye kopana ya ditipositi ke mokgwa wo bohlokwa wa kgolo ya ekonomi, ka ge dikadimo di dumelela baadimi go šomiša matlotlo, go realo e le go godiša ekonomi. Efela, ge baadimi ba sa kgone go lefela dikadimo tša bona, boleng bja thoto ya dipanka bo a phuhlama, go feleletša go e ba le dikadimo tše di sa šomego gabotse goba, go feta fao, phuhlamo ya ekonomi. Kwešišo ya ka fao ditaetšo tša makroekonomi le maekroekonomi di huetšago boleng bja thoto ya panka ka Afrika Borwa e ka ba le seabe go tsebo ya taba ya boleng bja thoto ya panka go ya ka seemo sa Afrika. Ka lebaka la mathata a ditšhelete a lefase a 2008/2009, tsebišo ya molao wo moswa le boleng bja dithomelontle tša gauta, ekonomi ya Afrika Borwa e fa sebaka seabe sa mathomo tsebong ya ditaetšo tšeo di huetšago boleng bja thoto ya panka. Go tlaleletša nyakišišong ya ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka tšeo di ganetšwago nyakišišong, maikemišetšo a nyakišišo ye gape ke go laetša ge eba taetšo ya letseno le legolo la dikadimo tše di sa šomego gabotse di gona ge go bapetšwa ditaetšo tša poelo ya panka, e lego letseno la dithoto, letseno la dišere le letseno la dikadimo. Nyakišišo ye e šomišitše tshekatsheko ya poelomorago ya datha ya phanele, ya go šomiša mokgwa wa phanele wo o lekaneditšwego, go nyakišiša ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka. Mokgwa wa go tšwetšapele gape teori ya boleng bja thoto ya panka ya lekala la Afrika Borwa la ditšhelete. Dipoelo di laetša gore Afrika Borwa ga e fokole kgahlanong le khuetšo ya mathata a ditšhelete a lefase ao a rothelago ka dikamanong tša kgwebišano ya boditšhabatšhaba le gore diphetogo tša taolo ga di kaonafatše boleng bja thoto ya panka ka lebelo, gomme di ka fokotša le boleng bja thoto bja paka ye kopana. Go feta fao, boleng bja thoto ya panka ka Afrika Borwa bo ela hloko boleng bja palomoka bja dithomelontle tša gauta. Go a bonagala go tšwa go dikgato tša tiro ya poelo gore letseno la tswala godimo ga dikadimo ke kgato ya poelo ye maleba gagolo ya boleng bja thoto ya panka. Nyakišišo ye e fa seabe sa mathomo ditaetšo tša boleng bja thoto ya panka gomme e šišinya gore balaodi ba swanela go laetša e sa le ka pela khuetšo ya molao wo moswa ka ga boleng bja thoto ya panka. Go feta fao, letseno la tswala godimo ga dikadimo bjalo ka kelo ya tiro ya poelo le go fa dipoelo tše di lebanego gabotse. Sa mafelelo, tshekatsheko ya boleng bja thoto ya panka ya naga e tee, kudu diekonomi tšeo di nago le dithomelontle tša ditšweletšwa tšeo gagolo di dumelelago motswako wa thoto ya panka.
Business Management
Ph. D. (Management Studies)
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"The effect of institutional quality on export dynamics." 2013. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549323.
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本文探讨了国家制度环境对出口企业以及出口企业动态的影响。目前关于制度对贸易总值影响的研究已引起了越来越多的关注。然而，关于制度环境对贸易动态影响的研究是非常有限的。所有现有的研究都是基于对某一国家的分析。本文采用世界银行出口企业动态数据库，该数据库包含45个出口国以及200多个进口国的多国面板数据。研究表明，有效的制度环境会增加两国间的出口企业的数量以及出口企业的存活率。良好的制度环境会减少双方违反合同的可能性同时减少对合同执行以及经济法律体制的不确定性。其次，研究表明,与出口国不同，进口国的制度环境对出口企业的平均出口值有负面的影响。进口国有效的制度环境吸引了一些边际生产者进入出口市场，从而降低了整体企业出口的平均值。最后，本文发现制度环境的提升会减少出口企业的市场进入率。有效的制度环境会提高出口市场的稳定性，减少市场内部的流动率。This paper studies the effect of institutional quality on exporter behavior and export dynamics. There is a growing interest in the study on the effect of institutions on aggregate trade volume in the recent literature. However, the analysis of institutional effect on the dynamics of trade is relatively limited. Besides, all the existing studies that analyze the dynamic effect of institutions are based on exporting firms in a single country. We use the Exporter Dynamics Database from World Bank that contains rich panel of cross-country data involving 45 exporting countries and more than 200 importing countries in the world. First, we find that there are more exporting firms and the survival rate of the exporting firms is higher in better institutional environment. The good contracting environment makes the breach of the contract more difficult and reduces the uncertainty about contract enforcement and general economic legal system. Secondly, we show that institutions in the importing country have a negative effect on average export value, which is different from the exporting country. The effective institutions in the importing country attract some marginal producers in the export market which reduces the average export value per firm. Finally, entry rate of the exporting firms reduces with the quality of the country’s institutions. The good institutional environment increases market stability and reduces the turnover rate in the export market.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Liu, Xiaojie.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2013.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 59-63).
Electronic reproduction. Hong Kong : Chinese University of Hong Kong, [2012] System requirements: Adobe Acrobat Reader. Available via World Wide Web.
Abstracts also in Chinese.
Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.5
Chapter 1. --- Related Literature --- p.8
Chapter 2. --- Data Analysis --- p.12
Chapter 3. --- Empirical Analysis --- p.17
Chapter 4. --- Discussion of the Results --- p.20
Chapter 5.1 --- Extensive Margin --- p.21
Chapter 5.2 --- Intensive Margin --- p.23
Chapter 5.3 --- Entry Rate --- p.24
Chapter 5.4 --- Survival Rate --- p.26
Chapter 5. --- Econometric Issues --- p.29
Chapter 6.1 --- Omitted Variable Bias --- p.29
Chapter 6.2 --- Endogeneity --- p.30
Chapter 7. --- Sensitivity Analysis and Robustness Checks --- p.32
Chapter 7.1 --- Sensitivity to Alternative Samples --- p.32
Chapter 7.2 --- Using Alternative Measures of Institutional Quality --- p.33
Chapter 8. --- Conclusion --- p.35
Tablesand Figures --- p.38
References --- p.59
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Tien, Shu-Yu, and 田書宇. "The Impacts of WTO on Taiwan Export—Application of Spatial Econometric Model." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/50446007187727303839.
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"Export elasticity to real exchange rate and urban-rural income inequality in China." 2012. http://library.cuhk.edu.hk/record=b5549098.
Full textAbstract:
本文主要研究實際匯率出口彈性對中國貧富懸殊的影響。我們使用了二十八個省份從1995年至2008年的數據。結果顯示實際匯率出口彈性愈高的省份其城鄉收入差距就會愈廣。另外，我們使用了各省的加工出口比例作為實際匯率出口彈性的工具變量。本文主要的貢獻在於分別地考慮出口數量和出口的商品種類來研究開放度對貧富懸殊的關係。在分開了出口數量和出口商品的種類對貧富懸殊的影響後，我們發現數據中呈現的中國對外開放度和貧富懸殊的正向關係，是基於出口商品的種類改變，而非如以前的文獻所說，是基於出口量的增長。因此，要決定一個省份的城鄉收入差距，該省份生產甚麼比其生產數量更重要。
This paper investigates the effect of export elasticity to real exchange rate and on urban-rural income disparity in China. We use annual data from 28 provinces from 1995 to 2008. The main finding is that provinces producing more elastic exported goods would have a higher urban-rural income inequality. We also construct the processing export ratio as an instrumental variable for the elasticity terms.
One main contribution of this paper is to consider separately the effect of export value and the composition of exports when we examine the relationship between openness and income inequality. After separating the effect of export value and the composition of exports, we find that the positive relationship between openness and income inequality mentioned in previous literature is caused by a change in export composition, rather than in export value. Hence, what the provinces produce matters much more than how much they produce when we determine urban-rural income inequality.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Detailed summary in vernacular field only.
Chan, Ying Tung.
Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2012.
Includes bibliographical references (leaves 32-34).
Abstracts also in Chinese.
ABSTRACT --- p.II
摘要 --- p.III
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS --- p.IV
Chapter 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1
Chapter 1.1 --- OPENNESS AND INEQUALITY --- p.1
Chapter 1.2 --- COMPOSITION OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.2
Chapter 2 --- LITERATURE REVIEWS --- p.4
Chapter 2.1 --- LITERATURE ON THE CAUSE OF INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.4
Chapter 2.2 --- LITERATURE ON THE EFFECT OF OPENNESS ON INCOME INEQUALITY IN CHINA --- p.6
Chapter 2.3 --- LITERATURE ON THE COMPOSITION OF EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA --- p.9
Chapter 3 --- DATA --- p.11
Chapter 4 --- REGRESSION MODEL --- p.12
Chapter 4.1 --- REGRESSION RESULT (WITHOUT THE ELASTICITY TERM) --- p.15
Chapter 4.2 --- ROLLING REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATING THE ELASTICITY TERMS --- p.17
Chapter 4.3 --- REGRESSION RESULT OF REGRESSION (1) --- p.19
Chapter 4.4 --- INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE FOR THE ELASTICITY TERM --- p.20
Chapter 4.5 --- REGRESSION RESULT AFTER USING TWO-STAGE LEAST SQUARE (2SLS) --- p.23
Chapter 5 --- DISCUSSION --- p.24
Chapter 6 --- CONCLUSION --- p.29
REFERENCES --- p.32
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Finch, Brian G. "Defense spending and regional growth: an examination of an export-base model and on econometric model." Thesis, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/22722.
Full textBooks on the topic "Exports Econometric models"
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Beenstock, Michael. The supply and demand for exports in Israel. Jerusalem, Israel: Research Dept., Bank of Israel, 1991.
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Bernard, Andrew B. Export entry and exit by German firms. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1998.
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Rubio, Oscar Bajo. Un estudio empírico sobre los determinantes de la exportación industrial española. Madrid: Ministerio de Industria y Energía, Secretaría General Técnica, Subdirección General de Estudios y Promoción Industrial, 1988.
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Roy, Saikat Sinha. Demand and supply factors in the determination of India's disaggregated manufactured exports: A simultaneous error-correction approach. Thiruvananthapuram: Centre for Development Studies, 2007.
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Mehta, Rajesh. Short-term forecasting of India's export: Developing a framework by countries and commodities. New Delhi: Research and Information System for the Non-aligned and Other Developing Countries, 2003.
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Muñoz, Sònia. Zimbabwe's export performance: The impact of the parallel market and governance factors. Washington, D.C: International Monetary Fund, African Dept., 2006.
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Omodeo, Ana María Cerro de. Apertura, exportaciones y crecimiento económico. S.M. de Tucumán: Fundación de Tucumán, 1994.
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Egwaikhide, Festus O. Economic growth through export expansion: Evidence from Nigeria. Ibadan: Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research (NISER), 1992.
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Lindquist, Kjersti-Gro. Empirical modelling of exports of manufactures: Norway, 1962-1987. Oslo: Statistisk sentralbyrå, 1993.
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Tokarick, Stephen. Does import protection discourage exports? [Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, Research Dept., 2006.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Exports Econometric models"
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Ishikawa-Ishiwata, Yuki, and Jun Furuya. "Economic Evaluation and Climate Change Adaptation Measures for Rice Production in Vietnam Using a Supply and Demand Model: Special Emphasis on the Mekong River Delta Region in Vietnam." In Interlocal Adaptations to Climate Change in East and Southeast Asia, 45–53. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-81207-2_4.
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AbstractVietnam is one of the most affected countries in terms of monetary losses or mortality of extreme events due to climate change in the world. Since agriculture is directly affected by the climate conditions in Vietnam, several adaptation measures such as shifting transplanting dates and/or using different cultivars have been taken to mitigate the loss of rice production because of climate change. In this chapter, we introduce the econometric evaluation methods of the adaptation measures with the supply and demand models. The supply and demand models each consist of yield, planted area, exports, imports, stock changes, and food demand functions of rice. By measuring the yield and planted area functions with climate variables, the effect of climate change on future rice production and food demand can be estimated. By inserting a mathematical model of dissemination of new cultivars, the possible outlook of the adaptation measure can be assessed as scenarios. In the case of the Mekong Delta Region, farmers in the coastal to central areas have been shifting the aquaculture-based farming style. We also discuss these transitions of farming style.
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Heim, John J. "The Exports Demand Equation." In An Econometric Model of the US Economy, 221–28. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-50681-4_6.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0008.
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Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Mokhtarzadeh, Fatemeh. "A global vector autoregression model for softwood lumber trade." In International trade in forest products: lumber trade disputes, models and examples, 174–93. Wallingford: CABI, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1079/9781789248234.0174.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract A novel econometric approach is developed in this chapter, namely, the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model. It provides a comprehensive framework for analyzing the country-level impacts of various domestic, foreign, and/or global shocks on softwood lumber trade. The GVAR approach is applied to Canada-U.S. trade in softwood lumber and used to analyze the effect of external shocks on Canadian lumber prices. Findings indicate that Canada's export prices are positively correlated to U.S. housing starts and real GDP. Further, using impulse response functions, it is used to examine the effects on regional lumber export prices in Canada of: (1) a change in U.S. housing starts; (2) a reduction in U.S. GDP by one standard deviation; (3) a COVID-19 induced decline in U.S. GDP (of three standard deviations); (4) an increase in global oil prices; and, in the Appendix, (5) an increase in the long-term interest rate. Price impacts vary a great deal by Canadian region depending on the type of shock, with the propagation mechanism in Alberta significantly different from that in other regions. For example, with an oil price shock and because Alberta is a major exporter of oil, the lumber export price remains high even as the shock dissipates over time.
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Boonyakunakorn, Petchaluck, Pathairat Pastpipatkul, and Songsak Sriboonchitta. "Forecasting Thailand’s Exports to ASEAN with Non-linear Models." In Predictive Econometrics and Big Data, 339–49. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-70942-0_24.
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Lorentsen, Lorents, and Kjell Roland. "Norway’s Export of Natural Gas to the European Gas Market. Policy Issues and Model Tools." In International Studies in Economics and Econometrics, 103–22. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-5127-3_5.
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Veretekhina, Svetlana. "Functional and Cost Analysis of the Econometric Model of Integrated Logistics Support for Technical Operation of Exported Knowledge-Intensive Products." In Data Science and Algorithms in Systems, 467–87. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21438-7_37.
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Draper, D. A. G. "Exports." In Explaining Unemployment: Econometric Models for the Netherlands, 123–48. Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0573-8555(1998)0000250011.
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Volontyr, Lyudmila. "THEORETICAL GROUNDS OF ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF AN ENTERPRISE BANKRUPTCY UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF THE PANDEMIC AND ITS IMPACT ON EXPORT-IMPORT OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE." In Global trends and prospects of socio-economic development of Ukraine. Publishing House “Baltija Publishing”, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.30525/978-9934-26-193-0-3.
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The purpose of the work is to study the transformation of the concept of bankruptcy in Ukraine and the world in pandemic conditions, carrying out econometric modeling of exports and imports and taking into account seasonal fluctuations and their forecasting. Methodology. The paper considers the legal settlement of the grounds, procedures and consequences of the debtor’s insolvency. The concept of “bankruptcy” is used in many socio-political and natural sciences where it is given its own interpretation. The most typical definitions of the concept of “bankruptcy” that occur in foreign and domestic scientific publications are considered. Studying the chronology of the “bankruptcy” concept interpretation allows us to assess the change of positions and approaches to understanding its essence. It is emphasized that bankruptcy should be investigated as a method of anticrisis management. The classification of bankruptcy on various grounds is considered. Introductions in the regulatory framework concerning bankruptcy are considered. Econometric modeling has shown that the exports and imports of goods, works and services of Ukraine has a general tendency to decrease and seasonal fluctuations have a significant impact on them. Practical implications. Introductions into the regulatory framework concerning bankruptcy, namely the procedure for the out-of-court recovery and the procedure for initiating a simplified bankruptcy procedure of the debtor, are liquidated by the owner. These provisions make it possible to make national insolvency and bankruptcy legislation more flexible and adapt it to European legislation. Particular attention is paid to legal relations associated with bankruptcy, which are governed by a number of regulations of different legal force that together constitute a separate institution in the system of economic legislation. The analysis of bankrupt enterprises in Ukraine in 2016–2019 revealed that most enterprises in Ukraine went bankrupt in 2016, the least – in 2019, i.e., there is a downward trend in this indicator, which indicated a gradual improvement in Ukraine’s economic situation. Most companies went bankrupt in February 2017, the least – in November 2019. Based on econometric modeling, the forecast of exports and imports is determined and, taking into account seasonal fluctuations, we determine their values for each quarter of 2021–2023. The largest volume of exports falls on the third quarter, while the largest volume of imports – on the fourth. As a result of the study, based on the analysis of the dynamics of exports, imports and gross domestic product of Ukraine during 2010–2020, it was found that exports and imports of goods and services had a general tendency to decrease. Value/originality. Effective management of export-import operations is impossible without a science-based approach to solving a set of problems of their information support. In a pandemic, businesses need to respond quickly to environmental conditions. Risks arising from quarantine measures need to be minimized immediately. The analysis of the dynamics of exports, imports, gross domestic product of Ukraine during 2010–2020 revealed that the balance of foreign economic transactions, in particular the value of exports of goods and services, has a significant impact on Ukraine’s gross domestic product. The constructed econometric model of dependence of GDP upon exports and imports of Ukraine is adequate (determination coefficient is 0.963). It is substantiated that with the increase in exports by UAH 1 million, gross domestic product will decrease by UAH 11.89 million provided that the remaining factors remain unchanged. If the volume of imports is increased by UAH 1 million, the gross domestic product will increase by UAH 4.51 million. provided that the remaining factors stay unchanged. The values of the coefficients of import dependence and export coverage of imports were analyzed and it was noted that these indicators significantly exceed the allowable level during almost the entire study period. The negative balance of export-import operations in 2010–2020 also indicates some imbalances in Ukraine’s foreign trade relations. During 2014–2020, there was a reverse, unfavorable for Ukraine trend of lower value of exports of goods and services compared to their imports. Note that the best values do not always match.
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Amadu, Ismaila, and Epo Boniface Ngah. "Electricity Supply and Manufacturing Exports." In The Oxford Handbook of the Economy of Cameroon, 663–74. Oxford University Press, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780192848529.013.31.
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Abstract Electricity shortages are a serious threat to manufacturing exports. This chapter estimates the impact of power deficits on the manufacturing exports in Cameroon. We mobilized a Vector Error Correction Model and data gotten from the 2018 World Development Indicators data set for the period 1972-2017 for the econometric estimations. Results reveal that a percentage decrease in electricity supply causes a reduction in the exports of manufactured products by a percentage point in the short-term and six percentage points in the long-term. The other covariates suggest that a one percent increase in manufacturing causes labor force to increase by seven percent in the short-term with the long-term value not being significant. The implications of these findings purport that adequate and stable power supply are critical in improving the exports of industrial products. Consequently, increasing electricity supply and making it more affordable and accessible to manufacturing industries should be at the core of the current industrial policy, economic development programs and the national development strategy in Cameroon.
Conference papers on the topic "Exports Econometric models"
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Aydın, Eren Gül. "A Study on Informal Employment in Turkey from Theorical and Emprical Perspectives." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00824.
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This paper elaborates both theorical and empirical evolution of the informal employment as an part of the informal economy in Turkey. First of all, economic dualism and migration is emphasized as the main reasons of informal employment and examine other reasons of the informal employment such as social,fiscal and economic.Later of this study, an econometric model is employed by using Multiple Linear Regression Analysis. Informal employment is used as independent variables of industrial production(IPI). The first result of econometrics model, informal employment was seen statistically significiant determinator of IPI. Secondly, some production and employment variables and Gross National Product are used for estimating decisive factor of the informal employment in Turkey between 2005 and 2012. Results show that GDP and all other variables used in regression positively corelated to informal employment except import and export in Turkey.
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Tsvil, Mariya, Maria Kobeleva, and Anastasia Ponomareva. "ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF EXPORT VOLUMES OF OILSEEDS AND GRAIN CROPS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION." In Economy of Russia: problems, trends, forecasts. au: AUS PUBLISHERS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.26526/conferencearticle_61cc296bd73781.36815816.
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The article presents econometric models of time series presented on the basis of quarterly data on the export volumes of oilseeds and cereals of the Russian Federation in the period from 01.01.2017 to 31.09. 2021. According to the obtained multiplicative model, the forecast of export volumes for 12 commodity groups for the 4th quarter of 2021 is presented
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Tsvil, Mariya, and Daniil Krasyukov. "CUSTOMS PAYMENTS IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS OF THE CUSTOMS BODIES ACTIVITY AND THEIR CURRENT DYNAMICS." In Economy of Russia: problems, trends, forecasts. au: AUS PUBLISHERS, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.26526/conferencearticle_61cc296bdce218.75443788.
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The given article presents an econometric analysis of the volume of enumerations of customs payments into the federal budget of the Russian Federation during export and import. On the basis of the given data for 2012-2020, econometric models have been constructed and the volumes of the customs payments in both directions of movement for 2021 have been predicted
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Бугримова, Яна, and Yana Bugrimova. "ECONOMIC INDICATORS AS BASIS IN THE ASSESSMENT OF EFFICIENCY OF ACTIVITY OF CUSTOMS AUTHORITIES." In Mathematics in Economics. AUS PUBLISHERS, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.26526/conferencearticle_5c24b1d1636ad1.45614102.
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The article presents the algorithm for the analysis of econometric indicators of the customs authorities, the factors affecting the appropriate indicators have been revealed. The main methods of calculations on the example of individual indicators are given. These factors allowed to draw a conclusion based on the given data. The econometric model for export and import was built and a forecast was made based on the analysis of data for 2011 – 2017.
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Xu, Yanli, Dan Liu, and Limei Zheng. "Econometric Model Analysis of Influencing Factors of Import and Export in Zhanjiang City." In 2017 7th International Conference on Education and Management (ICEM 2017). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/icem-17.2018.164.
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Hacıoğlu Deniz, Müjgan, and Kutluk Kağan Sümer. "The Effects of Oil Price Volatility on Foreign Trade Revenue and National Income: A Comparative Analysis on Selected Eurasian Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01362.
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The aim of this study is to identify the effects of the volatility of oil prices and exchange rates on foreign trade revenue of a few selected Eurasian Economies. These countries are oil and natural gas exporting countries and getting most of their trade revenue from exporting these commodities. The effects of sharply falling oil prices since June 2014 and depreciating exchange rates on these countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The sample of this analysis covered the period from June 2014 when oil prices has started falling sharply – till June 2015 in which still world oil price is lower than the price of 140-150 dollars for per gallon in the previous years. Decreasing prices basically destabilize the revenues of these states since approximately two third (2/3) of their export revenue and substantial part of their budget revenue that comes from oil and natural gas. In Russian economy falling prices of oil depreciates both public revenue and economic activity. This means predominantly depending on one commodity for export and foreign trade makes these countries’ economies in dependence of that commodity’s price and makes these economies so vulnerable to global crisis and price volatilities. In order to avoid from this situation, these countries should divert their production and increase in variety for exporting goods.
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Ersungur, Ş. Mustafa, Mehmet Barış Aslan, and Ömer Doru. "The Econometric Analysis in the Sectorial Basis of Income and Price Effects on the Foreign Trade Deficits: The Case of Turkey." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01864.
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In Turkey which is one of the countries whose current account deficit has been chronic from the 1980s until today, the most important reason for the current account deficit is foreign trade deficit. The aim of our study in this context is to shed light on policies oriented foreign trade deficits by examining foreign trade of intermediate and capital goods which are one of the most important causes of foreign trade deficits in Turkey, in terms of income and exchange rate indicators. In the study in which the Marshall-Lerner condition and the foreign and domestic income elasticities were tested separately for each model, the Econometric method and quartile data between 1998 to 2014 were used. The results of the study showed that Marshall-Lerner condition is not valid in foreign trade of any goods group, and domestic and foreign income variable coefficients are strong effect on both imports and exports. In the direction of these results, we think that the economic policies to be developed for domestic and foreign revenues will be more effective than the real exchange rate policies for being decreased the foreign trade deficits of both intermediate and capital goods in Turkey.
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Cook, Gary A. S., and Naresh R. Pandit. "Clustering and the internationalisation of high technology small firms in film and television." In 16th Annual High Technology Small Firms Conference, HTSF 2008. University of Twente, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.3990/2.268488363.
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This paper draws together three strands of literature, that on clustering, entrepreneurship and international business, examining the relationship between these three in promoting firm formation and growth within clusters. The evidence drawn on includes econometric models based on the unique International Trade in Services Film and Television dataset, an in-depth interview survey and questionnaire survey. The key conclusions are firstly that strong clusters promote entrepreneurship, which in turn promotes cluster strength in a self-reinforcing dynamic. Secondly, some firms are better able than others to benefit from cluster location due to superior firm competencies and absorptive capacity. Thirdly, cluster strength and internationalization are mutually reinforcing. Cluster strength contributes to the ability of entrepreneurial firms to expand overseas via export sales, licensing and FDI. Evidence is presented which indicates firms have greater intensity of export and import activity if they have resource-strengths, some of which are derived from their membership of a strong cluster. Strong clusters also attract multinationals and in the case of the London media cluster, although those multinationals appear somewhat less embedded than non-MNEs, they are nevertheless quite strongly embedded. This means that there is a second important feedback loop as spillovers from MNEs to local firms enhances cluster strength which attracts further multinationals. The acquisition of high performing firms by overseas MNEs does not appear to have reduced either their performance or their embeddedness in the cluster. Fourthly, the nature of internationalization strategies are conditioned by firm and industry characteristics. In particular, the extent to which tacit knowledge is embodied in a product emerges as being influential in terms of the decision of which internationalisation mode to use. Finally, the resource-based view of the firm emerges as a useful integrative framework for understanding the interplay between clusters, entrepreneurship and internationalisation strategies.
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BUCHINSKAIA, Olga, and Elena STREMOUSOVA. "SOURCES OF INNOVATION ACTIVITY AS A FACTOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT." In Contemporary Issues in Business, Management and Economics Engineering. Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.003.
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Purpose – the purpose of the study is to define the sources and restrictions of new industry development based on the R&D -related factors of the countries studied; to show the conditions of inequality based on the existing infrastructure, which are obstacles for achieving an advantage in technology. Research methodology – the panel studies were conducted on four groups of countries divided by the level of GDP per capita. High technology exports and charges for the use of the intellectual property were used as dependent variables. Findings – as a result of the study, the factors that influenced the dependent variables in each of these groups of countries were identified. The differences in the significance of factors are shown. Research limitations – the limitations of the study are significant gaps in the time series for a number of countries. They make it impossible to use such data in the econometric model. Some indicators are taken into account relatively recently, which makes it impossible to consider long-term trends. Practical implications – the results of the research should help the country decision-makers optimize measures to develop domestic R&D and innovative production. Originality/Value – the originality of the research is the study of country sets grouped by the level of GDP per capita. The specifics of patents and trademarks influence on the innovative activity of countries with different income levels are determined.