Academic literature on the topic 'Export sales contracts Bangladesh'

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Journal articles on the topic "Export sales contracts Bangladesh"

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Ozkan, Burhan, Robin G. Brumfield, and Osman Karaguzel. "A Profile of Turkish Export Cut-flower Growers." HortTechnology 13, no. 2 (January 2003): 368–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/horttech.13.2.0368.

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Turkish cut-flower exports grew from about $100,000 in 1985 to $11 million in 1995 (not adjusted for inflation). Since this is a growing industry in Turkey, we wanted to examine the production structure and main problems of export-oriented contract growers. We surveyed 33 cut-flower export growers and 30 contract growers between May and July 1997. We conducted the survey in the Antalya province, which is the center of the export-oriented cut-flower production in Turkey. The results indicate that cut-flower companies were not highly mechanized, but did use computerized accounting systems. Transportation of cut flowers to foreign markets was the largest expense item in the cut-flower industry. Despite a high rate of unemployment, cut-flower companies face difficulties in obtaining and keeping qualified employees. Managers tended not to use specific performance indicators such as sales per employee or sales per square foot relevant to the cut-flower industry. The most common method for arranging cut-flower export sales was personal contact with the importers. Contracts between firms which grew and exported flowers and smaller contract growers were common, but some problems existed concerning quality and financial obligations. Growers are using fewer commission contracts and are instead opting to sell on a fixed-price basis. The main concerns raised by managers were related to increased competition, price-cutting, transportation expenses for export, training, and labor supply.
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Kiyoum, Enayat. "Performance Evaluation of Selected Tannery Companies Enlisted in Dhaka Stock Exchange." Asian Accounting and Auditing Advancement 6, no. 1 (December 31, 2015): 26–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.18034/4ajournal.v6i1.34.

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Being a developing country Bangladesh has always been considered as having two natural comparative advantages over its competitors: the domestic livestock population and the low-cost available labor that can help transform this raw material into products suitable for export. The industry employs about 100,000 people directly, producing fine quality crust & finished leather for export as well as for home consumption. In this paper, I have tried to analyze the development and growth of Selected Tannery Companies Enlisted on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. It is observed that all the selected companies are able to experience stable growth in Total Sales, Total Assets, and Net Income during the period of 2007-2011. Sixteen trend equations have been tested for different activities of the Selected Tannery Companies. Among them, the trend value of Fixed Assets, Retained Earnings, Price Earning (P/E) Ratio, and Asset to Equity Ratio are positive in the case of all the selected Tannery Companies. The Square of the correlation coefficient (r2) has also been tested for all trend equations. The r2 of Total Assets, Total Sales, Inventory Turnover Ratio, Net Income, and Export Sales is more than 0.5, which indicates the prospect of selected Tannery Companies in Bangladesh is very bright.
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Chikhachev, Aleksei. "The European Turn in France’s Arms Export." Scientific and Analytical Herald of IE RAS 20, no. 2 (April 30, 2021): 85–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.15211/vestnikieran220218592.

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This article analyzes a new trend in the arms export policy of modern France – an increasing share of European countries in the geographical structure of sales. Based on statistics and examples, regional priorities of French export before Emmanuel Macron’s presidency are identified; the reasons for the turn towards Europe at present stage and its possible limits are studied. The author draws attention to the fact that until recently, the Middle East and Asia have been key partners of France, providing two thirds of international demand for the products of French defense industry. However, today their role is declining in favor of the EU countries: Belgium, Romania, Greece, etc., with which Paris has signed a series of major contracts in 2018–2021. This development primarily stems from a difficult foreign policy context forcing the EU members to allocate more funds for defense needs, as well as from temporary difficulties in France’s relations with Middle Eastern clients. The author concludes that the «Europeanization» of sales is likely to continue but it is too early to talk about a full reorientation of French exports towards Europe. A more realistic task Paris de facto solves is to balance its export structure by diversifying the range of customers.
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Saenz, Fernando, and Ruerd Ruben. "Export contracts for non-traditional products: Chayote from Costa Rica." Journal on Chain and Network Science 4, no. 2 (December 1, 2004): 139–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.3920/jcns2004.x048.

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This paper focuses on the determinants of market and contract choice for non-traditional crops and the possibilities for involving local producers in global agro-food chains through delivery relationships with packers and brokers. Main attention is given to the importance of quality for entering the export market and the impact of contractual arrangements on loyal behaviour. Core stipulations in the contract regarding the frequency of delivery and the provision of technical assistance are mediating factors between quality and loyalty. The study among traditional and recently established producers of chayote in Costa Rica confirms the importance of production scale and experience for engagement in exports. The export share is positively related to quality performance but inversely related to delivery frequency and sales at the local market. Apparently, traditional producers rely on market diversification to maintain a certain bargaining power vis-à-vis traders and processors. Verbal contractual arrangements are mainly offered to newly established but less-experienced farmers living in settlements that try to reduce risk and demonstrate a high commitment. These farmers cultivate on better soils and have more family labour available. Further quality improvement requires technical assistance and a high frequency of delivery. Supplier arrangements that guarantee timely collection, input support and flexible credit services are therefore of critical importance. Additional support from packers and exporters could enable farmers to improve product quality and is likely to be rewarded. with a high degree of loyalty.
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Kranton, Rachel, and Anand V. Swamy. "Contracts, Hold-Up, and Exports: Textiles and Opium in Colonial India." American Economic Review 98, no. 3 (May 1, 2008): 967–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.3.967.

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Trade and export, it is argued, spur economic growth. This paper studies the microeconomics of exporting. We build a heuristic model of transactions between exporters and producers and relate it to East India Company (EIC) operations in colonial Bengal. Our model and the historical record stress two difficulties: the exporter and its agents might not uphold payment agreements, and producers might not honor sales contracts. The model shows when procurement succeeds or fails, highlighting the tension between these two hold-up problems. We analyze several cases, including the EIC's cotton textile venture, the famous Opium Monopoly, and present-day contract farming. (JEL D86, F14, N55, N75)
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Islam, MS, MM Haque, MG Rabbani, and S. Sharmin. "Marketing of shrimp in Bangladesh-A value chain analysis." Journal of the Bangladesh Agricultural University 12, no. 2 (July 12, 2016): 359–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/jbau.v12i2.28696.

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Shrimp is an important fisheries resource in the national economy of Bangladesh. It is considered as an exportable item and in each year it shared about 2.75% of the total export earning of Bangladesh. The present study was conducted to examine the marketing system and value chain, and marketing efficiency of shrimp marketed both in domestic and export market. For this study a total of 182 stakeholders (market intermediaries) were selected where shrimp farmers, export oriented farms, depot owners and other market participants and selling agents were included. Data were collected for the period of 2012-13. The study revealed that 80% shrimp is exported and rest 20% is consumed in the local market. Usually shrimp is exported through exporting agencies and firms. Considering all kinds of market, the average gross marketing margin and profit of shrimp in the local market were Tk 171.00/kg and Tk 134.04/kg respectively but for export market, the corresponding amounts were Tk 142.76/kg and Tk 89.51/kg respectively. Shrimp is sold both in domestic and overseas market and accordingly major supply chain and value chain were identified. Shrimp farmers and exporting agencies supply shrimp to ultimate consumers through supply chain. Actually value chain actors added value at each level of market. After processing and adding value, domestic and overseas consumers purchase 1 kg of shrimp at Tk 55.00 and Tk 142.76 respectively. Marketing efficiency was studied only for domestic market. It revealed that shorter supply channel resulted efficient marketing of shrimp where the shrimp producer received the higher percentages of sales price provided by the retailer in consumer market.J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 12(2): 359-368, December 2014
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Dighton, P. F. "LNG - PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE." APPEA Journal 39, no. 1 (1999): 671. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj98046.

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The first 30 years of LNG export witnessed the development of large movements of natural gas between countries, underpinned by long-term sales contracts and strong relationships. Now the industry has matured, but is faced with the quantum leap of achieving commoditisation of LNG. This would require a break away from long-term contractual ties and the emergence of merchant shipping and merchant plant. This paper examines this trend and the impact upon future Australian exports in the context of emerging markets, low oil prices and intense competition.
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Priddle, R. "Impact of Canadian Regulatory Changes on Cross-Border Trade." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 5, no. 1 (February 1987): 65–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459878700500106.

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In the year following oil deregulation Canada's crude oil productive capacity grew by 5%, but production was unchanged due to a lack of pipeline capacity, the effects of prorationing and a lack of price flexibility. While Canadian oil demand remained stable, exports of crude oil increased by one-third and imports by one-half. Export prices followed world trends with light crude oil export prices declining from $C 40/bl to $C 15 in July 1986. Natural gas exports were down by 17% in the first nine months of the 1986 contract year. This period coincides with the implementation of the Agreement on Natural Gas Markets and Prices, but was also a period marked by declines in US gas prices, declining US gas demand, and significant changes in US gas industry regulation. Prices for gas exports by licence have been renegotiated and some short-term interruptible sales have been made. Export prices approached those for interprovincial sales, which typically offered a better load factor. Licence holders have been able to average export prices over all sales under a licence to satisfy the minimum export price requirement in relation to the domestic reference price. As a result, since the Agreement of 31 October 1985, all renegotiated prices for exports of gas by licence have been approved. The factors having the most impact on gas exports by licence appear to be the 6% decline in US gas demand, limitations on pipeline access during the period of transition in US pipeline regulation, priority given by US pipelines to managing lower-48 take-or-pay obligations, and the changing role of US pipelines to being transporters rather than merchants of gas to the detriment of some Canadian gas export contracts. Exports by licence were at a level of 42% of authorized volumes for most of 1986. Volume authorizations were therefore, not an impediment to exports by licence. There was no volume restriction for short-term exports by order. Gas exports by short-term interruptible order faced US pipeline access restrictions but were affected by the domestic reference price floor. Short-term interruptible exports grew rapidly after the Agreement, peaking in January 1986 and then declined as US competitive prices fell below comparable Canadian domestic prices. Short-term interruptible exports have accounted for only 3% of total exports in the first nine months of the current contract year. Canada's disappointing 1985–6 gas export performance was attributable to weak US gas markets, changing US market structures, and delayed US regulatory change. Although there has been some impact on short-term interruptible sales, the overall decline in gas exports was not significantly relatable to Canadian gas export regulation.
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Jamieson, Eric D. "Crunch Mining: The Logistics of Western Canadian Export Coal Supply." Energy Exploration & Exploitation 12, no. 5 (October 1994): 393–416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014459879401200506.

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Since its revitalization in 1968 the Western Canadian bituminous coal industry has operated almost exclusively in export markets. As a result, coal sales have been subject to external demand and pricing forces beyond the control of Canadian companies and governments. The recession that affected all industrialized nations in the early 1980s compounded by the world oil price collapse of 1986 initiated a period of low coal prices, intensified competition among producers and oversupply of internationally traded coal. The attritional effects of this adverse marketing regime became serious for Western Canadian metallurgical coal producers after 1989 and reached crisis proportions in 1992. Major coal industry restructuring involving corporate consolidation and substantial write-downs of financial assets quickly followed. Four companies emerged from the restructuring process with 90–95% of potentially reduced regional production capacity and appear to be in reasonably solid positions to compete viably under current marketing conditions. The next major crunch for the industry looms in 1998 when initial 15 year contracts come up for renewal at several mines and serious concerns arise over their ability to operate economically beyond then.
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Ecchia, Stefania. "Informal rural credit markets and interlinked transactions in the district of late Ottoman Haifa, 1890–1915." Financial History Review 21, no. 1 (March 4, 2014): 5–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s096856501400002x.

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By examining the acts of the Public Notary of Haifa (1890–1915), this article shows that it was the traditional informal market of credit, run by local notables, which financially supported the development of the small-landholding-based agricultural sector of the Haifa district in late Ottoman Palestine. In seeking to ascertain what led to the success of the informal rural credit market as compared with the formal credit market, the article finds that the local notables, who acted as financial intermediaries for small landholders, enjoyed an information advantage over the banks stemming from the establishment of interlinked credit market transactions connected to the stipulation of bay' wafā, salam and muzara‘ah contracts. In a context of land privatisation and growing commercialisation of agriculture, these contracts became the instruments used by notables to invest in peasants' landholdings and to manage a sales network for agricultural products on a local and international scale, hence representing an efficient financial institution to support the ‘agricultural export-led growth’ of late Ottoman Palestine.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Export sales contracts Bangladesh"

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Sewerin, Diana. "International product liability and uniform sales law." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp03/MQ64305.pdf.

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Brinkhof, Johannes J. Grosheide Frederik Willem. "Contracteren internationaal : opstellen aangeboden door collegae, oud-collegae, medewerkers, oud-medewerkers, promoti en promovendi aan prof. mr. F. Willem Grosheide ter gelegenheid van zijn afscheid als leerstoelhouder in het burgerlijk recht /." Den Haag : Boom, 2006. http://www.gbv.de/dms/spk/sbb/recht/toc/524515891.pdf.

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Mahasneh, Nisreen. "The seller's obligation of delivery and conformity under a contract for sale of goods : the approaches of both English law and the Vienna Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods 1980." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2001. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=166212.

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This thesis examines the seller's obligations of both delivery and conformity under a contract of sale. In this context, the related rules under both English law (represented by the Sale of Goods Act 1979) and the Vienna Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods 1980 have been explored and compared with each other. It was initially necessary to indicate the importance of the Vienna Convention as a model for unifying the law of international trade. As well as indicating potential reasons as to why the UK is unconvinced that it should become a member of the Convention, as well as briefly examining the previous efforts that led to the conclusion of the Convention. While delivery is not defined under the Convention, the SGA considers it a voluntary transfer of possession. Moreover, delivery under English law takes place independently from the transferral of ownership. The matter of transferring the ownership in the goods is not however, dealt with under the Convention, and should be solved by reference to private international law. According to English law the delivery goods must meet the description in sale by description, correspond with the sample in sale by sample, and in all cases be of a satisfactory quality. The goods must meet a particular purpose where some conditions are met, as well as having to be in the right quantity. Art 35 of the Vienna Convention is considered a counterpart of the said rules. Should the seller however, attempt to exclude his liability regarding the said implied terms, such an attempt is subject to the UCTA 1977 and the Unfair Terms in Consumer Contracts Regulations, 1999. In another respect, delivery of the goods may take place actually or constructively, such as delivery by documents, or delivery through a carrier. Furthermore, there are particular rules that control the process of delivery, such as time, place and expenses connected with delivery. Obviously, the intention of the parties plays the essential role in determining these matters. One of the most important issues is the legal effect of the seller's breach of his obligation of conformity or delivery. Here, the buyer is entitled to a wide range of remedies, such as rejection of the goods and avoiding the contract of sale, specific performance, reduction of the price, or damages. The approaches here of both English law and the Convention are distinct in relation to some particular remedies, such as specific performance and reduction of the price.
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Boghossian, Nayiri. "A comparative study of specific performance provisions in the United Nations Convention on contracts for the international sale of goods /." Thesis, McGill University, 1999. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=30286.

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The United Nations Convention on Contracts for the International Sale of Goods (CISG), adopted in April 11, 1980, is an attempt to unify rules of international trade. A large number of states that represent a variety of legal systems and of degrees of development have adhered to this Convention.
As a result of the divergence of approaches and rules in these systems, several issues were debated during the negotiations, among others the remedy of specific performance.
This thesis examines the provisions regarding specific performance in the Convention in attempt to reveal the divergence of approaches between Common Law and Civil Law by means of a comparative study of the two systems.
The purpose is to assess the extent to which uniformity is achieved in the Convention. The study shows that the solution adopted regarding specific performance was a compromise that threatens uniformity to a certain degree.
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Fenton, Denise E. "Dispute resolution in consumer goods manufacture-for-export in the People's Republic of China." access abstract and table of contents access full-text, 2007. http://libweb.cityu.edu.hk/cgi-bin/ezdb/dissert.pl?ma-slw-b22052458a.pdf.

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Thesis (M.A.)--City University of Hong Kong, 2007.
Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Sept. 7, 2007) "Master of Art in arbitration and dispute resolution LW6409 dissertation" Includes bibliographical references.
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Brölsch, Martin W. "Schadensersatz und CISG /." Frankfurt ; New York : P. Lang, 2007. http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&doc_number=014999914&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA.

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Smith, Margaret. "Export earnings instability in Brazil, 1953-1983." Thesis, McGill University, 1987. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=75668.

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The central focus is on the testing of the causes and effects of export earnings instability in Brazil, 1953-1983. While Brazil has been included in some cross-sectional studies of fluctuations in export earnings, it has not been the subject of a case study, as is provided here. We test the traditional theory which stipulates that increased diversification of exports will decrease export earnings instability, and that in turn, a decrease in export earnings instability will enhance economic growth. While we do find that export diversification in Brazil did result in lower export earnings instability, the lower export earnings instability did not in turn stimulate economic growth. Our results indicate that the export earnings instability of manufactured goods was positively associated with the growth rate of Brazil's Gross National Product. The results of this case study may prove relevant to other developing countries striving to emulate the Brazilian success in diversifying into manufactured exports.
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Oser, David. "The UNIDROIT principles of international commercial contracts : a governing law? /." Leiden : Nijhoff, 2008. http://opac.nebis.ch/cgi-bin/showAbstract.pl?u20=9789004167896.

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Marchand, Sylvain. "Les limites de l'uniformisation matérielle du droit de la vente internationale : mise en oeuvre de la Convention des Nations Unies du 11 avril 1980 sur la vente internationale de marchandises dans le contexte juridique suisse /." Bâle [u.a.] : Helbing & Lichtenhahn, 1994. http://www.gbv.de/dms/spk/sbb/recht/toc/278947883.pdf.

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Paulmann, Steffen. "Wirksamkeit von Haftungsausschlüssen und -begrenzungen im deutsch-französischen Warengeschäftsverkehr : unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der UNIDROIT-Principles und der Principles of European Contract Law /." Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] : Lang, 2005. http://www.gbv.de/dms/sbb-berlin/481281568.pdf.

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Books on the topic "Export sales contracts Bangladesh"

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Christiana, Fountoulakis, and Dimsey Mariel, eds. International sales law. Oxford, United Kingdom: Hart Publishing, 2012.

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H, Schwenzer Ingeborg, and Fountoulakis Christiana, eds. International sales law. Abingdon, UK: Routledge-Cavendish, 2006.

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Marshalek, Kathy. Export marketing and sales. Cincinnati, Ohio (10860 Lake Thames Drive, Cincinnati 45242): International Business Publications, Inc., 1992.

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Green, Allen B. International sales: Course manual. Washington, D.C. (1120 20th St., N.W., Washington 20036): Federal Publications, 1996.

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1981-, Hachem Pascal, and Kee Christopher, eds. Global sales and contract law. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011.

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Allgemeines Vertragsrecht und Kaufvertragsrecht: Ein Rechtsvergleich Österreich, USA, Spanien und UN-Kaufrecht, unter Einbeziehung von PECL und UNIDROIT-Prinzipien : Gemeinsamkeiten, Unterschiede, Bewertungsversuche. Frankfurt am Main: P. Lang, 2003.

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Nikoli︠u︡kin, S. V. Pravovoe obespechenie mezhdunarodnykh i rossiĭskikh torgovo-ėkonomicheskikh sdelok. Moskva: I︠U︡rlitinform, 2012.

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Gillette, Clayton P. Sales law: Domestic and international. New York: Foundation Press, 1999.

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D, Walt Steven, ed. Sales law: Domestic and international. New York: Foundation Press, 2002.

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D, Walt Steven, ed. Sales law: Domestic and international. 2nd ed. New York: Foundation Press, 2009.

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Book chapters on the topic "Export sales contracts Bangladesh"

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Seyoum, Belay. "Export Sales Contracts." In Export–Import Theory, Practices, and Procedures, 189–208. 4th ed. New York: Routledge, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9781003020509-12.

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"Export Sales Contracts." In Export-Import Theory, Practices, and Procedures, 190–207. Routledge, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203889305-9.

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"Export Sales Contracts." In Export-Import Theory, Practices, and Procedures, 179–96. Routledge, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203889305.ch8.

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Fox, D., RJC Munday, B. Soyer, AM Tettenborn, and PG Turner. "15. International sales." In Sealy and Hooley's Commercial Law, 501–24. Oxford University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/he/9780198842149.003.0015.

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This chapter examines the rules of English law governing international commercial sales, a subject of disproportionate importance because of the surprisingly large proportion of international trade carried on under contracts governed by English law by choice of the parties. Contracts of this type expose the parties to greater risks than purely domestic sales. The chapter gives detailed coverage of typical export transactions and INCOTERMS, both marine and non-marine, including FOB contracts, FAS contracts, CIF contracts and variants of the CIF contract, and DAP contracts as well as FCA, CIP, and similar contracts. Likely future developments are also mentioned.
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Clarke, MA, RJA Hooley, RJC Munday, LS Sealy, AM Tettenborn, and PG Turner. "15. International sales." In Commercial Law. Oxford University Press, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/he/9780199692088.003.0015.

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This chapter examines the rules of English law governing international sales as they affect buyer and seller. There is more than one way in which a sale of goods contract may have an international element. For example, the seller and buyer may be in different jurisdictions, or the contract of sale may contemplate that the goods are to be carried from one country to another. A surprisingly large proportion of international trade is carried on under contracts governed by English law by choice of the parties. This chapter begins with a discussion of typical export transactions under INCOTERMS 2010, a set of international rules for the interpretation of trade terms promulgated by the International Chamber of Commerce. It then considers sales via sea carriage, along with other contracts involving international sales. It also analyses payment in international sales transactions and concludes with an overview of future prospects for international sales.
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Reports on the topic "Export sales contracts Bangladesh"

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Bakhtiar, M. Mehrab, Abu Sonchoy, Muhammad Meki, and Simon Quinn. Virtual Migration through Online Freelancing: Evidence from Bangladesh. Digital Pathways at Oxford, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-dp-wp_2021/03.

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Youth unemployment is a major issue in many developing countries, particularly in locations not well connected with large urban markets. A limited number of available job opportunities in urban centres may reduce the benefit of policies that encourage rural–urban migration. In this project, we investigated the feasibility of ‘virtual migration’, by training rural youth in Bangladesh to become online freelancers, enabling them to export their labour services to a global online marketplace. We did this by setting up a ‘freelancing incubator’, which provided the necessary workspace and infrastructure – specifically, high-speed internet connectivity and computers. Close mentoring was also provided to participants to assist in navigating the competitive online marketplace. We show the exciting potential of online work for improving the incomes of poor youth in developing countries. We also highlight the constraints to this type of work: financing constraints for the high training cost, access to the necessary work infrastructure, and soft skills requirements to succeed in the market. We also shed light on some promising possibilities for innovative financial contracts and for ‘freelancing incubators’ or ‘virtual exporting companies’ to assist students in their sourcing of work and skills development.
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, October 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.

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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias
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