Journal articles on the topic 'Export price index'
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1
Gnidchenko, A., and V. Salnikov. "Russian foreign trade price competitiveness." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2014): 108–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2014-1-108-129.
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We examine export and import prices for Russian commodities relative to world prices during 2002—2011 across aggregated and disaggregated commodity groups. We also propose an aggregated export price competitiveness index as a tool of monitoring quality dynamics and a composite price competitiveness rating by commodity groups.
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Xue, Huidan, Chenguang Li, Liming Wang, and Wen-Hao Su. "Spatial Price Transmission and Price Dynamics of Global Butter Export Market under Economic Shocks." Sustainability 13, no. 16 (August 19, 2021): 9297. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13169297.
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Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better understand international butter export prices transmission, the feedback between the economic context changes and price fluctuations, and the link between the global butter market, energy market, and other commodity markets. We assessed which key factors are typically associated with butter export price movements with regards to shocks to crude oil price, palm oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, exchange rates, and consumer price index (CPI) for food of the EU, New Zealand, the U.S., and the rest of world (RoW), respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this study found that decreases in farm-gate raw milk price could be swiftly transmitted to butter export prices of not only a home country but other foreign countries. However, palm oil price and crude oil price merely affects global butter export prices. We also found that U.S. dollar depreciations against the Euro will cause a decline in U.S. butter export price. It is concluded that butter export markets are not well-integrated, yet butter export prices of New Zealand and the U.S. are highly linked.
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Dastagiri, M. B., and S. M. Jainuddin. "International Trading Prices Of India’s Oilseed Crops: Growth Rates, Elasticities And Foreign Trade Policy." European Scientific Journal, ESJ 13, no. 31 (November 30, 2017): 185. http://dx.doi.org/10.19044/esj.2017.v13n31p185.
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World prices influence international trade and so economic precision is required. This foreign trade research study examines exports and imports of India’s major oilseeds from 1990-91 to 2015-16. The methodology employed is the estimation of CAGR, Instability Index, Export import price elasticities of oilseeds and identification of top export import destinations. The results show that export prices of groundnut, soybean, niger, safflower, sesamum and sunflower were higher than import prices indicating that India has a comparative advantage in these crops. The terms of trade of India’s oilseeds were found to have increased for all oilseeds except mustard crop. The exports price growth rate of groundnut, niger, safflower and sunflower were higher than imports. The study found that among oilseeds, mustard (0.97 %) has high export elasticity and that export imports prices of groundnut, soybean, safflower, sunflower and niger crops were found to be stable. It also found that India’s major exports destinations for groundnut, soybean, niger seeds, sesamum, and sunflower are Indonesia, USA, South Korea and Philippines respectively, whereas major imports destinations are Germany, USA, Nigeria and Ukraine for groundnut, soybean, sesamum, and sunflower respectively. The study suggests that multilateral trade relationship with countries having high export imports share would help in smooth trade of oilseeds. These findings have important implications for policy research and R&D strategies in response and re-orientation of the R&D system to the changing trade scenario to benefit from WTO.
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Darman, Darman. "ANALISIS EKSPOR-IMPOR DAN INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN PADA PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA." Jurnal Manajemen Indonesia 16, no. 1 (April 17, 2017): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.25124/jmi.v16i1.726.
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This study aims to assess and analyze the Effect of Export, Impor and Consumer Price Index in economic growth in Indonesia from 2000 to 2014. This research uses quantitative descriptive approach with the nature of verification explanatory method. The data used are secondary data in the form of Export, Import, and the Consumer Price Index of Indonesian Economic Growth (GDP) in 2000-2014. The results showed that export push the GDP more effectively: compared to import sector and CPI. Regression analysis showed that the constant value of GDP was 0.526. Also, the Export Coefficients value is 0.015, the Import Coefficients value is -0,026 and CPI is -0.2303. Meaning that 1 percent of the value of exports will increase GDP by 1.5 percent, 1 percent of imports will lower the value of GDP by 2.6 percent and 1 percent of the CPI will lower the value of GDP by 23.03 percent. This means that Exports variable boots GDP more effective from Import sector and the Consumer Price Index. Significance test results showed that the variables of export, import and CPI jointly influence economic growth (GDP) with the alpha (a) of 5% as shown by the F-statistic significant value of 0.74, greater than a=0,05. In other words, the independent variabel (exports, imports and CPI) jointly affect the dependent variable (GDP)
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Beard, KT. "Efficiency of index selection for dairy cattle using economic weights for major milk constituents." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research 39, no. 2 (1988): 273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/ar9880273.
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A breeding objective (aggregate genotype) for dairy cattle based on returns, net of feed costs, from yield of fat, protein and carrier (the non-fat, non-protein component of the milk) was developed. Returns were estimated using a forecast of the future Australian dairy market structure, and feed costs were estimated from the metabolizable energy required to produce each of three milk components.The effects of erors in forecasting future conditions on economic weights and efficiency of index selection of sires were examined.Economic weights varied widely when subject to errors in the price of milk components within markets, errors in the export price for milk and errors in feed cost.Selection based on an optimal index of sire expected breeding values for fat, protein and milk was sensitive to low export market prices, high feed costs, high protein price and high carrier price. This index was quite insensitive to variation in prices and costs opposite in sign to those above, to variation in milk prices on the domestic markets, and to variation in the size of quotas on domestic markets.
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Hussain, Altaf, Musrat Rafique, Ambar Khalil, and Maryam Nawaz. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Price Variations: An Economic Analysis of Kse-100 Index." Pakistan Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences 1, no. 1 (June 30, 2013): 28–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.52131/pjhss.2013.0101.0003.
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The main objective of this study is to assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock price variability in Pakistan. The quarterly data on macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rates, Exports, Money Supply and Unemployment Rate) and KSE-100 Index as proxy of stock price variation for the period of 1992:01 to 2012:04 is taken for the empirical investigation. Johansen co-integration test and VECM is used for this purpose. The analysis of this study specifies that the foreign direct investment, interest rates, export and unemployment rate have significant and negative impact on KSE-100 index, while money supply has found to be a significant and positive determinant of stock prices. On the other hand gross domestic product have a positive but insignificant impact on stock prices in Pakistan.
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Ghafoor, Abdul, Khalid Mushtaq, and Abedullah Abedullah. "The Export Supply Response of Mangoes: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis." LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 18, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 93–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.2013.v18.i1.a5.
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This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.
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Shuquan, He, and Matukorn Bu-iad. "Economic factors affecting Thailand’s frozen shrimp export volume to the United States and Japan." Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks 4, no. 4 (2020): 66–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21272/fmir.4(4).66-74.2020.
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A Study of Economic Factors Affecting Thailand’s Frozen Shrimp Export Volume to the United States and Japan which hypothesized that there are economic factors that affect the quantity of frozen shrimp exports from Thailand to the United States, namely the Manufacturing Production Index classified by production activity, Frozen Seafood (MPI), Domestic Wholesale Shrimp Price (PRIshrimp), United States Gross Domestic Product (GDPU.S.A.), Per Capita Income of US Population (PCIU.S.A.), Rate Of Change In Private Consumption And Consumption Expenditures Of The US Private Sector (PCEU.S.A.) and assumed that there are economic factors affecting the quantity of frozen shrimp exports to Japan, namely the Manufacturing Production Index classified by production activity, Frozen Seafood Category (MPI), Domestic Wholesale Shrimp Price (PRIshrimp) , Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDPJapan), Per Capita Income Of Japanese Population (PCIJapan), Rate Of Change In Private Consumption And Consumption Expenditures Of The Japanese Private Sector (PCEJapan) which are consistent with the research of Pathumnakul, S., Khamjan, S., & Piewthongngam, K. (2007). Will use secondary data by collecting data on a monthly basis from January 2017 to December 2019 with the analysis of complex regression equations. By the least-squares estimation method, the study found that the economic factors affecting frozen shrimp export volume of Thailand to the United States in the same direction are manufacturing production index classified by production activity, frozen seafood category, wholesale shrimp prices in the country, the gross domestic product of USA, income per capita of the United States population and rate of change in US private consumption expenditure has no effect on the export volume of frozen shrimp from Thailand to the United States. For economic factors affecting the frozen shrimp export volume of Thailand to Japan in the same direction is statistically significant, the manufacturing production index classified by production activity, frozen seafood category, wholesale shrimp prices in the country, the gross domestic product of Japan, income per capita of the Japanese population and the rate of change in Japanese private consumption expenditure has no effect on the export volume of frozen shrimp from Thailand to Japan. Keywords: economic factors, frozen shrimp, export volume.
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Bonino-Gayoso, Nicolás, Antonio Tena-Junguito, and Henry Willebald. "URUGUAY AND THE FIRST GLOBALIZATION: ON THE ACCURACY OF EXPORT PERFORMANCE, 1870-1913." Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History 33, no. 2 (May 5, 2015): 287–320. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0212610915000130.
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ABSTRACTIn order to understand Uruguay’s long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan export series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of export records, first, according to import partners’ records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and an export price index which present a more unstable and less dynamic export evolution than that of neighbouring Argentina.
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Sumantri, Fazhar, and Umi Latifah. "THE INFLUENCE OF INTEREST RATE, MONEY CIRCULATION, INFLATION, AND CPI AGAINST EXPORT AND IMPORT IN INDONESIA 2012-2018." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 17, no. 2 (January 1, 2020): 108. http://dx.doi.org/10.22219/jep.v17i2.10242.
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Indonesia’s economic growth can no longer depends on internal trade only but needs to depend on the export and import with the global market, thus macroeconomic influence towards export and import needs further research.Thus, this research focuses on the effect of multiple macroeconomic variables which are the rate of loans, money supply, inflation and consumer price index towards export and import in Indonesia. The data used in this research are secondary data acquired from BPS, BI and the Ministry of Trade during the periode of 2012-2018, which are analyzed using the classic assumption tests (normality test, autocorrelation test, heteroscedasticity test, and multicollinearity test) followed by the multiple regression analysis. Based on the F test we concluded that all the dependent variables are simultaneously effecting both import and export, while the T test shows that only the Consumer Price Index does not have any effect towards both import and export while the other variables effect both import and export, this signifies that Consumer Price Index does not need to be considered in analyzing and forecasting of both import and export.
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Anindita, Theresia, and Ari Apri Syaputra. "ANALISIS PENGARUH KURS USD, HARGA BATUBARA ACUAN, DAN VOLUME PRODUKSI TERHADAP VOLUME EKSPOR PADA PT. BUKIT ASAM (PERSERO) TBK." Jurnal Manajemen Industri dan Logistik 1, no. 2 (December 2, 2018): 111–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.30988/jmil.v1i2.11.
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The research method used is descriptive quantitative. The data used are the USD exchange rate, coal price index, production volume, and export volume of 2014-2016 which is converted in monthly form, it is expected that this research will be utilized by the company to consider export sales and further research. The result of research based on multiple linear regression analysis showed that R2 equal to 16,3% which mean influence of USD exchange rate, coal price index and production volume to export volume only had effect of 16,3%. Partially only reference coal price index variable which significantly have positive effect. In simultaneously, the independent variable does not significantly affect the dependent variable.
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Rasool, Nosheen, and Muhammad Mubashir Hussain. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis of Islamabad Stock Exchange." Journal of Global Economy 10, no. 2 (July 2, 2014): 73–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1956/jge.v10i2.346.
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The purpose of this study was to analyze long-run causal relationship between ISE (Islamabad Stock Exchange) and macroeconomic variables in Pakistan and also find out the direction of causality. The impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices of ISE has not been previously discussed by the researchers. The monthly data from January 2001 to December 2010 was used in this study. The set of macroeconomic variables include Exchange Rate (ER), Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER), Industrial Production Index (IPI), Interest Rate (IR), Imports (M), Money Supply (MS), Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Exports (X). Descriptive statistics and Unit root test, Johansen Co-integration Technique and Granger Causality Technique were employed to analyze the long-run and causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and stock prices.  The results revealed that M showed positive and significant relationship but Foreign Exchange Reserves (FER) and Industrial Production Index (IPI) indicated positive and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. Exchange rate(ER), Money supply (MS) and  Whole sale price index(WPI) showed negative but significant relationship while Interest  rate (IR) and Export( X )indicated a negative and insignificant relationship with the stock prices. The findings of Granger Causality revealed that only exports showed a unidirectional causal relationship.Â
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Munka, S. "Analysis of the Influence of Foreign Trade on Investment Attractiveness of Ukraine." Modern Economics 25, no. 1 (February 23, 2021): 105–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.31521/modecon.v25(2021)-16.
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Annotation. Introduction. The studying process of the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian economy remains a priority for domestic economists, because the economic growth is impossible without the involvement in investment. In order to improve the investment attractiveness of the economy it would be desirable to determine the factors and relationships that improve the corresponding indicator. Purpose. The main purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of foreign trade on the investment attractiveness, develop projections for the investment climate in Ukraine. The definition of the role of the country’s stock index in investment attractiveness. Results. The study reveals the concept of the investment attractiveness. The influence of export goods on investment attractiveness was investigated. A number of key export goods for the domestic economy were identified. The projections of the investment attractiveness for future periods were developed due to the price of export goods in the world market. The role of the stock index in the country’s investment climate was determined. The projections of the stock index of Ukraine were developed. Recommendations for increasing the investment attractiveness of the national economy were given. Conclusions. Based on the research, we can draw conclusions about the strong positive correlation between the foreign trade and the investment attractiveness. Now, Ukrainian exports are commodity-focused and, as a result, the economy depends on the price of agricultural products and iron ores on the world market. The results of the study predict and an increase in the cost of food products in the world and, as a consequence, an increase in the investment attractiveness of the Ukrainian economy. Despite the positive projections for the growth of commodity prices, the export of goods with high added value goods will be more profitable option for the economy. Keywords: investment activity; investment climate; foreign trade; economic growth; export; projection; polynomial trend line; iron or; correlation-regression analysis; stock index.
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Belkania, Davit. "Dissecting Export Trade Patterns of Georgian Economy and the Growing Importance of the European Union Market." European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 5, no. 1 (April 30, 2019): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.26417/ejis-2019.v5i1-274.
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From the very beginning of its rebirth after leaving the Soviet Union, Georgia embarked on a transition to a free market economy and linked its fate to western culture. Since then, strengthening the private sector, creating an attractive investment climate, promoting trade liberalization and above all else fostering exports are the main concerns of the country. Thus, as an export-oriented country, close examination of the Georgian export performance is of great importance. Besides the decomposition of general export trends for the period of 2008-2017, this paper applies Balassa index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to identify the key export sectors with comparative advantage and correspondingly with higher growth potential; By this shaping the export promotion policy to prioritize those sectors as the main drivers to increase export earnings. Furthermore, the study employed export product diversification index to gauge the convergence degree of Georgian exports structure by products to the structure of the world; as it significantly affects the resistance of a country towards the trade shocks caused by a price instability of the exported commodities. Eventually, the EU-Georgia trade relationship will be assessed through the trade intensity index to check whether the value of trade between the EU and Georgia is corresponding to the expectations based on their importance in world trade. The results show the comparative advantage for nine products (HS4) that account for -60%- of total exports including all the major sectors of Georgian export production. The diversification degree of export products improved over the last decade but still very poor, thus, it is unlikely for Georgia to resist the external trade shocks in case of a price instability of the exported commodities. Furthermore, despite the removal of the main trade barriers between EU and Georgia, it appears that the bilateral trade relationship is characterized by a low-intensity pattern, meaning that there is much to trade between the partners. The problem of low-intensity can be linked to the lack of accessible export-related information that limits the ability of the new entrants to survive. As a result, discouragement of new firms to become exporters limits the diversification of export basket, which in turn negatively affects the level of trade intensity between the trade partners and decreases the potential trade benefits of bilateral agreements.
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Belkania, Davit. "Dissecting Export Trade Patterns of Georgian Economy and the Growing Importance of the European Union Market." European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 5, no. 1 (April 30, 2019): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.26417/ejis.v5i1.p18-26.
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From the very beginning of its rebirth after leaving the Soviet Union, Georgia embarked on a transition to a free market economy and linked its fate to western culture. Since then, strengthening the private sector, creating an attractive investment climate, promoting trade liberalization and above all else fostering exports are the main concerns of the country. Thus, as an export-oriented country, close examination of the Georgian export performance is of great importance. Besides the decomposition of general export trends for the period of 2008-2017, this paper applies Balassa index of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) to identify the key export sectors with comparative advantage and correspondingly with higher growth potential; By this shaping the export promotion policy to prioritize those sectors as the main drivers to increase export earnings. Furthermore, the study employed export product diversification index to gauge the convergence degree of Georgian exports structure by products to the structure of the world; as it significantly affects the resistance of a country towards the trade shocks caused by a price instability of the exported commodities. Eventually, the EU-Georgia trade relationship will be assessed through the trade intensity index to check whether the value of trade between the EU and Georgia is corresponding to the expectations based on their importance in world trade. The results show the comparative advantage for nine products (HS4) that account for -60%- of total exports including all the major sectors of Georgian export production. The diversification degree of export products improved over the last decade but still very poor, thus, it is unlikely for Georgia to resist the external trade shocks in case of a price instability of the exported commodities. Furthermore, despite the removal of the main trade barriers between EU and Georgia, it appears that the bilateral trade relationship is characterized by a low-intensity pattern, meaning that there is much to trade between the partners. The problem of low-intensity can be linked to the lack of accessible export-related information that limits the ability of the new entrants to survive. As a result, discouragement of new firms to become exporters limits the diversification of export basket, which in turn negatively affects the level of trade intensity between the trade partners and decreases the potential trade benefits of bilateral agreements.
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Ansonfino, Ansofino, Zusmelia Zusmelia, Lovelly Dwinda Dahen, and Yossi Eka Puteri. "Diamond Model and Competition of Rubber Export Markets: Evidence from Sumatra Economic Growth Center." Agris on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics 13, no. 1 (March 30, 2021): 15–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.7160/aol.2021.130102.
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The focus of this research is on how the position of competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports among ASEAN countries and the dominant factors causing the competitiveness of Indonesian rubber exports experienced a downward. Approach to measuring rubber export competitiveness uses the Lafay Index, and factors that affect the competitiveness using the Diamond model by using panel data analysis method. The results show that there has been a decline in the competitiveness of Indonesia's rubber exports to ASEAN countries, the greatest decline in competitiveness that occurred in Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Factors that affect Indonesia's export competitiveness that is more dominant are a foreign direct investment, price levels, and interest rates. FDI should be directed at improving the quality of export products following the quality of ISNR and upgrading the quality of rubber export products from SIT 20, and directly more beneficial for the manufacture of goods for final consumers.
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ITO, TADASHI, and TOSHIHIRO OKUBO. "PRODUCT QUALITY AND INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE." Singapore Economic Review 61, no. 04 (September 2016): 1550106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217590815501064.
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In this study, we argue that the conventional intra-industry trade (IIT) index does not directly address the quality issue and propose a methodology to make full use of unit price gap information to deduce quality differences between simultaneously exported and imported products. By applying this measure to German trade data at the eight-digit level, we study the quality change of Chinese export goods in its IIT with Germany. We compare the case of China with those of Eastern European countries, which are also major trading partners of Germany. Our results show that the unit value difference in IIT between Germany and Eastern European countries is clearly narrowing. However, China’s export prices to Germany are much lower than Germany’s export prices to China, and this gap has not narrowed over the last 23 years. This is at odds with the common perception that China’s product quality has improved, as documented by Rodrik [Rodrik, D (2006). Whats so special about China’s exports? China and World Economy, 14(5), 1–19.] and Schott [Schott, P (2008). The Relative sophistication of Chinese exports. Economic Policy, 53, 5–49.]. Our results support Xu [Xu, B (2010). The sophistication of exports: Is China special? China Economic Review, 21(3), 482–493.], which argued that incorporating the quality aspect of the exported goods weakens or even eliminates the evidence of the sophistication of Chinese export goods in Rodrik [Rodrik, D (2006). Whats so special about China’s exports? China and World Economy, 14(5), 1–19.].
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Prowanta, Embun, Moeljadi Moeljadi, Sumiati Sumiati, and Kusuma Ratnawati. "The Impact of Macro Economy on Stock Price Index: An Empirical Study of Five ASEAN Countries." GATR Global Journal of Business Social Sciences Review 5, no. 2 (April 13, 2017): 40–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.35609/gjbssr.2017.5.2(7).
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Objective - The objective of the study is to empirically investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, current accounts and export-import towards the stock price index. Methodology/Technique - The data used is monthly data for macroeconomic and the stock price index of five ASEAN countries including Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines from 2006 to 2015. The analysis uses a regression estimation of panel data and a series of chow tests i.e. the Hausman test and the LM test as the selection process, with the aim of determining the macroeconomic variables that could significantly affect the stock price index of five ASEAN countries. Findings - The result show that of the seven macroeconomic variables affecting the stock price index, only four macroeconomic variables showed a significant effect. These are GDP, interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation. Meanwhile, three other variables (foreign exchange reserves, current accounts and export-import) did not show a significant effect. Novelty - The study looked at the effect of deregulation on stock markets, focusing on variables that significantly influence the stock price index. Type of Paper - Empirical Keywords: Stock Price Index; Macro Economics; Five ASEAN Countries.
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Helmy, Omneia, Mona Fayed, and Kholoud Hussien. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in Egypt: a structural VAR approach." Review of Economics and Political Science 3, no. 2 (July 31, 2018): 2–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/reps-07-2018-001.
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Purpose The theoretical and empirical literature stipulated that exchange rate shocks do influence the domestic price of imports. Hence, this paper aims to investigate the underlying relationship between the exchange rate and prices known as the exchange rate pass-through. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model, drawing on Bernanke (1986) and Sims (1986), to empirically examine and analyze the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to domestic prices in Egypt. Findings The empirical results of the monthly data between 2003 and 2015 revealed that the exchange rate pass-through in Egypt is fairly substantial but incomplete and slow in the three price indices [IMP, producer price index and consumer price index (CPI)]. However, the impact is more prominent for consumer prices than for any other price index. This finding could be attributed to the fact that the CPI in Egypt is composed of a relatively large number of subsidized commodities and goods with administered prices as well as the authorities’ behavior in manipulating prices (i.e. export ban). This is expected to weaken the transmission of exchange rate shocks. Practical implications The result has interesting implications for Egypt’s ability to attain an effective inflation targeting regime. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature by assessing the effect of changes in the exchange rate (the Egyptian £ vis-à-vis the US$) on prices using an updated time series from 2003 to 2015. It addresses the limitations of the study of Nafie et al. (2004), which found no strong relationship between the exchange rate and inflation rate in the Egyptian context. One of these limitations was using the CPI, as the only price index.
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Yuliati, Lilis, Shofiyya Farras Setyawan, and Fajar Wahyu Prianto. "Tingkat Instabilitas Komoditi Ekspor Nonmigas di Indonesia Periode 2007Q1-2015Q4." e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi 4, no. 2 (November 14, 2017): 173. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/ejeba.v4i2.5793.
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The purpose of this study was to assess the value of non-oil export instability in Indonesia and to determine the dominant factor affecting the movement of the level of instability in Indonesia's non-oil exports. The data used in this research is secondary data obtained from the central bank and the relevant agencies. The analytical tool used in this research is the index of instability of exports to the data time series. The objects of this study are value, volume and price of non-oil exports in Indonesia 2007Q1-2015Q4 period. The results of this study is the movement of the value of non-oil exports in Indonesia are relatively stable or have a low level of instability and the dominant affecting factor is the volume of exports.
Keywords: Instability of exports, instability indexes, non-oil, export
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Fitrianti, Shinta. "THE EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF INDONESIA'S EXPORTS TO JAPAN AND THE US." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 20, no. 1 (September 28, 2017): 49–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v20i1.724.
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This paper investigates the long-run and short-run impacts of the exchange rate volatility onIndonesia’s real exports to its major trading partners; Japan and US. The study uses monthly data from January 1998 to October 2015 in order to capture the structural break period of the Global Financial Crisis 2008. In addition, commodity price is included as an explanatory variable. The index of exchange rate volatility is generated using moving sample standard deviation of the growth of the real exchange rate. This paper estimates the long-run cointegration using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing, while for the short-run dynamic this paper use error-correction-model (ECM). The findings suggest rupiah volatility against the Japanese yen reduces Indonesia’s export to Japan, both in the short and the long-run. Fluctuation of rupiah against the US dollar helps Indonesia’s export to the US in the short run, but the impact is not carried out to the long-run. On the other hand, the impact of commodity price shock is negligible, except for the long-run export to Japan.
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Frankel, Jeffrey A. "Peg the export price index: A proposed monetary regime for small countries." Journal of Policy Modeling 27, no. 4 (June 2005): 495–508. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2005.04.013.
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Fuadi, Faiq. "ANALISIS PENAWARAN EKSPOR TEKSTIL DAN PRODUK TEKSTIL INDONESIA KE ASEAN (Studi Kasus Negara Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philipina dan Kamboja)." JURNAL DINAMIKA EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN 1, no. 2 (October 4, 2018): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/jdep.1.2.1-9.
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International trade plays an important role in economic growth after consumption, investment and government spending. the industrial sector is encouraged to increase international trade, especially non-oil exports. Textiles and textile products (TPT) is one of the most important parts of Indonesian non-oil industry, this is because the textile industry contributes substantially to GDP. This study aimed to analyze the effect of the exchange rate, international prices of textile and textile domestic price index to the volume of Indonesian textile export supply in some ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia).The data used in this research are secondary data in the period January 2011 to December 2014, and the industry codes are used Harmonized System (HS) 50 to 63. The analytical method used is the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) using Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV).The results showed that the exchange rate, domestic production index are positive and have significant impact on the volume of Indonesian textile exports to ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines and Cambodia). While international prices have positive effect and it not significant.
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Saman, Corina, and Cecilia Alexandri. "THE IMPACT OF THE WORLD FOOD PRICE INDEX ON SOME EAST-EUROPEAN ECONOMIES." Journal of Business Economics and Management 19, no. 2 (September 20, 2018): 268–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/jbem.2018.5208.
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This paper deals with the dynamic response of exchange rates, inflation and agricultural foreign trade in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania to global food prices. We employ time-varying VARs with stochastic volatility to estimate the behaviour of these macroeconomic variables over the 2001M1–2015M12 period. The original contribution of this paper is that it captures the time variation and nonlinearities of the relationship between variables taking into account food price volatility and its macroeconomic implications. The main findings of the paper are: (i) high global food prices were transmitted to domestic economies causing pressure on inflation in the long run; (ii) in the short run the impact of a positive shock in international food price increases domestic inflation, depreci-ates the currency and reduces the agricultural trade; (iii) the vulnerabilities to global food prices are more pregnant for Romania and Bulgaria; (iv) the difference in the transmission of world prices is related to the different status of the countries as regards food and agricultural trade. The findings of the research would be significant for the governments to promote policies to help farmers respond to the rising of food prices by growing more and responding to export opportunities that may arise.
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Orman, Turgut, and İlkay Dellal. "Cointegration Analysis of Exchange Rate Volatility and Agricultural Exports in Turkey: an Ardl Approch." Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology 9, no. 6 (July 4, 2021): 1180–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.24925/turjaf.v9i6.1180-1185.4456.
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This study aims to reveal the impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural exports of Turkey by using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model. While quarterly time series data covering period of 2001: Q1 to 2018: Q4 were used to carry out analyses, Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (1.1) is used to acquire exchange rate volatility series. The research findings showed that agricultural export is cointegrated with exchange rate volatility, producer price index and real effective exchange rate. Furthermore, our findings indicate that increases in real effective exchange rate have a statistically significant positive influence on the export volume whereas exchange rate volatility has negative impact on it.
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Azizi Kouchaksaraei, Meysam, Hamed Movahedizadeh, and Hoda Mohammadalikhani. "Determinant of the Relationship between Natural Gas Prices and Leading Natural Gas Countries’ Stock Exchange." International Journal of Economics and Finance 8, no. 4 (March 23, 2016): 246. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v8n4p246.
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<p>Over the recent decades, natural sources of energy have become an interesting topic to investigate for researchers. Sources of energy play a crucial role in all industrial segments such as export revenue, exchange rate and stock market. One of the major sources is natural gas which its price affects many countries’ economy. This paper investigates the effect of natural gas price on the three leading natural gas exporting countries’ stock market: Russia, Norway and Qatar. This paper employs monthly data observations including natural gas price and stock exchange market index on Russia, Norway and Qatar from January 2005 to November 2013. This study uses Unrestricted Vector Autoregressive model (VAR) to apply Granger Causality test, Impulse Response functions and Variance Decomposition. Findings show that there are two-way causality relationship between natural gas prices and stock exchanges of Russia and Norway, though natural gas prices affected Russia stock exchange index at 10% significance level and Norway stock exchange index at 5% significance. However, there is not causality relationship between Qatar stock exchange and natural gas prices. Moreover, outcomes of impulse response function present that natural gas price shock does not have significant impact on all three countries’ stock exchange. The variance decomposition test also reinforces the results from impulse response function since Russia, Norway and Qatar’s stock exchange variance are not significantly due to natural gas price.</p>
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Vajda, Andrea, and Róbert Magda. "Foreign Trade in the View of Competitiveness in the EU." Polgári szemle 16, no. 4-6 (2020): 149–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.24307/psz.2020.1011.
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Competitiveness is examined at national, regional and corporate levels. The primary aim of the study is to present and analyse the competitiveness of the EU Member States and to evaluate trends. Two statistical indicators are worth considering: the commodity terms of trade (C), also known as the net barter terms of trade (N), and the income terms of trade index (I), which expresses the correlation between changes in prices and quantities. The economic structure allows the surplus in the balance of trade with most countries, and also requires improvement in the exchange rate. The indicator seeks primarily to capture the knowledge capital present in the country, which may facilitated by the structure and characteristics of trade. The export surplus to GDP is extremely high for Ireland, Switzerland and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom, France and Romania recognised negative trade balances. Nominal trading values continued to rise in 2018 as a result of volume and price changes. Global commodity exports increased by 10 per cent, driven mainly by the 20 per cent rise in oil prices. Growth in exports and GDP need rapid development in innovation. Export grows significantly faster in Euro Area Member States then in other EU Member States.
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Glavonjić, Branko, Aleksandra Lazarević, Leon Oblak, Miljan Kalem, and Predrag Sretenović. "Competitiveness of Selected South-Eastern European Countries in European Union Wood Flooring Market." Drvna industrija 71, no. 3 (July 10, 2020): 281–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.5552/drvind.2020.1963.
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Selected South-Eastern European countries (SEEC - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Slovenia) represent significant producers and exporters of wood flooring in Europe. In 2018, 9.4 % of Europe’s wood flooring production originated from this region. The region is a net exporter of wood flooring since it exports over 50 % of total production. The most important market for the export of wood flooring is the European Union with a share of over 60 % in total exports. Trends in this market are important for manufacturers and exporters from the region. Therefore, the analysis of the impact of the European Union imports on wood flooring production in the SEEC was conducted by application of econometric modelling. The parameters of the obtained model show that the increase of approximately 0.75 % could be expected in the production of wood flooring in selected South-Eastern European countries for each precentral increase in the European Union imports. In addition to these results, the paper presents the analysis of the competitiveness of wood flooring export from the region measured by the Competitiveness Growth Index (RCA1). The aim of this analysis was to quantify the level of their price and non-price competitiveness in the European Union market. Conducted analyses show that the Competitiveness Growth Index (RCA1) had positive values (higher than one) for most significant countries from the SEEC for most of the observed period.
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Kang, Kichun. "The export price index with the effect of variety and an empirical analysis." Economic Modelling 26, no. 2 (March 2009): 385–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2008.08.006.
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KANG, KICHUN. "WHAT MATTERS FOR THE EXTENSIVE AND INTENSIVE MARGINS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE? EVIDENCE FROM KOREAN EXPORTS." Singapore Economic Review 57, no. 03 (September 2012): 1250018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s021759081250018x.
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Recently, there has been increased interest in the distinction between the extensive margin (EM) and the intensive margin (IM) of international trade. Between 1988 and 2006, the growth of the EMs and IMs of Korean exports has been diverse across its destinations. This paper links each component of the trade value (EM, IM, price index and quantity index) to factors that have been identified as trade determinants in the suggested model. This paper finds that the destination GDP, distance, tariffs, language, existence of an export promotion agency (EPA), local infrastructure and import procedures have an effect on the EMs and IMs of Korea's exports, and the effect works largely through the IM. This paper examines the external environment that shapes the contributions of each of these margins of a country's exports.
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Siew-Ling Liew, Mohammad Affendy Arip, and Chin-Hong Puah. "Determinants of Export Competitiveness of Agricultural Products in Malaysia." International Journal of Business and Society 22, no. 2 (August 12, 2021): 618–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.33736/ijbs.3747.2021.
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This study intends to evaluate the export competitiveness of agricultural products using the data of 186 agricultural commodities in Malaysia for the period ranging from 1988 to 2014. Besides, this study engages in the total export of the world with Standard International Trade Classification Revision Three-SITC Revision 3 (5-digits code) to analyse the index of comparative advantage of agricultural commodities in Malaysia. In addition, the study employs Balassa (1965) index of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) to measure competitiveness. The findings show that 56 commodities have comparative advantage. Apart from that, this study also empirically examines the determinants of competitiveness which are commodities price, GDP per capita, labour participation and capital formation. The results of cointegration tests estimation indicates that there is a long-run relationship between the variables under study. The outcomes denote that price of commodities, GDP per capita and crises in 2008 have negative association while labour participation and capital formation are positively relatedly to competitiveness. The results also specify that there is a short-run dynamic impact on competitiveness with the variables. This study suggests that the government should consider intensifying the current economic policy through focusing on downstream products by taking the benefit of its comparative advantage in upstream industries to increase competitiveness.
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Folorunso Sunday Ayadi and Olubunmi Elizabeth Oluwagbemi. "Oil Export Earnings, Exchange Rate Variability, and Economic Growth in Nigeria." International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management 3, no. 4 (October 2014): 11–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijsem.2014100102.
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This paper investigates oil revenue and exchange rate volatility and as well as their impacts on Nigerian economic growth which is examined from 1980 – 2010. Exchange rate volatility was captured using standard deviationof monthly nominal effective exchange rate. During this period, Nigeria recorded high levels of volatility (in oil receipt and effective exchange rate) as can be seen from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) - ARCH/GARCH results. Also, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test indicate that some of the variables exhibit unit root, this research further makes use of vector autoregressive process (VAR) using the variance decomposition of Choleski factorisation in which forecast error variance of some systems of equations has innovations which is credited to each variable and the method of impulse response function. The authors established that exchange rate in Nigeria due to its volatility causes revenue volatility from oil and this has a daring consequence on Nigeria's economic growth (being a monoculture economy). They found that change in oil price index, change in interest rate, proportion of export to GDP and exchange rate variability bears some negative impacts on change in the rate of output growth in Nigeria. Moreover, government size and exchange rate variability created some disturbances to change in the rate of output, these changes were not as substantial as those created by change in interest rate, ratio of oil export to GDP and change in oil price index. In addition, change in output responds negatively for some time horizon to one-standard deviation shocks in change in oil price index, change in interest rate, oil export to GDP and exchange rate variability. The authors recommend economic diversification and sound macroeconomic management among others.
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Sharma, Om, and Rajendra Bhand. "Foreign Trade and Its Effects on Nepalese Economic Development." Journal of Nepalese Business Studies 2, no. 1 (September 13, 2006): 13–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/jnbs.v2i1.51.
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Having with the objectives of understanding the effects of foreign trade on the economic development process of Nepal, this paper attempts to deal the role and the impact of export and import along with many other pertinent factors. The determining factors that have been considered along with export are capital stock, labor force, average propensity to save (APS), relative price index (RPI), ratio of government development expenditure to GDP. Moreover, GDP, PCI, and growth rate of GDP are the assumed development indices. These macro variables are introduced through the application of various econometric models. The empirical results have been estimated by applying annual data for the period of 1974/'75 to 2002/'03. The different models in linear and log-linear forms have justified that exports growth leads to economic growth. Therefore, the policy of adequate investment in export-oriented industries that embody a 'proper mix' of export promotion and import substitutions is suggested.
Journal of Nepalese Business Studies Vol.2(1) 2005 pp.13-32
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Zhukov, S. V., A. О. Maslennikov, and M. V. Sinitsyn. "Factors of Global Competitiveness of American LNG." Outlines of global transformations: politics, economics, law 12, no. 6 (December 30, 2019): 43–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.23932/2542-0240-2019-12-6-3.
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The United States started lique fied natural gas (LNG) export in 2016 and just in two years became the world’s fourth largest exporter of LNG. There is a high probability that in the near future the U.S. will emerge as the third largest LNG exporter after Australia and Qatar. The article focuses on the factors, which ensure global competitiveness of U.S. LNG until 2030. The authors show that: first, the first wave of American export LNG projects significantly speeded up restructuring of contract system in the world gas trade as well as suppor ted development of a more flexible mechanism of natural gas pricing; secondly, production costs of the associated natural gas in the U.S. are relatively low and it is highly probable to expect Henry hub gas price to stabilize at around 2.5 dollars per MMBTU in the long run, what gives the American gas producers potential capability to significantly improve their global competitiveness by means of production and transportation costs reduction; fourthly, new waves of U.S. LNG export will not necessa rily be linked to the Henry Hub index, but to a wide range of price indicators, inclu ding the Brent oil price. With increasing flows of globally competitive Ameri can LNG entering the market, transformation of the institutional structure, contracts system and price mecha nism that have been unfold in the world LNG trade for the last ten to fifteen years became irreversible. That creates prerequisites for rapid formation of the world LNG market as well as with a some time lag of a global gas market.
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MUDRAK, Ruslan, and Volodymyr LAGODIENKO. "AGROINFLATION AND CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR FOODSTUFFS: UKRAINE-EU COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS." Economy of Ukraine 2018, no. 1 (January 3, 2018): 28–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/economyukr.2018.01.028.
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One of the fundamental conditions for food security is a sufficient level of economic access to food; so, finding the reasons for rising consumer food prices is an urgent research problem. In view of this, the purpose of the article is to determine the extent and causes of the impact of agricultural price index on consumer price index for foodstuffs on the basis of comparison of the phenomena studied in Ukraine and the EU. The following conclusions are drawn: (i) some Ukrainian households are in a state of food hazards due to excessive expenses for buying food; one of the main reasons for this is the constant rise in food prices; (ii) over the past 20 years in Ukraine, prices for foodstuffs rose 11.8 times, agricultural products – 23.5 times; in the EU they increased by 45% and 32%, respectively; (iii) the main source of inflationary impulses in Ukraine’s food market is agroinflation in the livestock sector of agriculture; (iv) sectoral structure of agricultural production is noticeably distorted in Ukraine: the share of livestock industries accounts for only 31.5%, which is by 12.3 pp less than that in the EU. This is the main reason for the shortage of food products of livestock production; (v) per capita production of all types of meat is by 40% higher in the EU than in Ukraine; that of milk – by 21.5% higher; (vi) in the EU (unlike Ukraine), production and consumption of foodstuffs, in particular of animal origin, are of a relatively high level of stability; (vii) export-import operations in Ukraine with food of animal origin are aimed at providing the narrow corporate interests irrespective of national ones; (viii) in Ukraine, unlike the EU, more than 99% of livestock business entities are small organizational forms that hold less than 5 heads of livestock. Such farms have relatively higher production costs; (ix) the reason for agroinflation and growth of consumer price index for foodstuffs in Ukraine is the lack of compensators of production costs in the form of budget subsidies.
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Grossmann, Axel, and Marc W. Simpson. "Predictability of the U.S. Dollar Index using a U.S. export and import price index-based relative PPP model." Journal of Economics and Finance 35, no. 4 (September 3, 2009): 417–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12197-009-9102-6.
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Golubova, G. V. "The Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Ukraine’s Export." Statistics of Ukraine 81, no. 2 (October 18, 2018): 6–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.31767/su.2(81)2018.02.01.
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In the article the author determined the main directions of foreign economic activity of the country and was established that the main course for Ukraine is foreign trade and international investment activity. The author done analysis of the foreign trade balance of Ukraine for 2017 shows the passive balance of trade balance. The analyzed indicators of foreign trade balance show that in 2017 Ukraine economy was opened (0.93), i. e. it is risk-prone, import-dependent (46.8%), the share of exports in the total amount of the gross domestic product was 45.8%, the coefficient of coverage the export over import was 98%.
The calculated coefficient of the international intraspecific specialization of the country shows that Ukraine is import-dependent from the following groups of goods and services: works of art (–75,5%), polymer materials, plastics and articles (–75,0%), means of land transport, aircraft, floating means (–68.4%), optical and photographic equipment (-59.9%), state and government services (–99.5%), royalties (–83.3 %), financial services (–74.2%).
The author was determined and substantiated the factors influencing the tendencies of export development of Ukraine, which were the basis of correlation-regression analysis. The export links with all selected factors based on the pair correlation coefficients are analyzed. A high correlation was found between exports with imports (0.987), a rather close but inverse relationship with the US dollar (–0.887), a significant and direct correlation between export of FDI to Ukraine (0.693) and a noticeable but inverse relationship exports with GDP (–0.693) and consumer price index (–0.690).
During the analysis, the author built two regressive models of export dependence from import transactions and under the influence of the exchange rate. The author substantiated the effect of the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate on exports of goods and services, and predicted Ukraine’s exports in the short period.
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Malisa, Nor, and Karsinah Karsinah. "Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Indonesia With VECM Approach." Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics 2, no. 2 (June 1, 2019): 424–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/efficient.v2i2.30802.
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The purpose of this research is to determine and analyze the degree of pass-through in Indonesia, which calculated from the cumulative response of the exchange rate to the CPI and the exchange rate on the exchange rate it self. Data used in this research is quarterly from 1997Q3 to 2017Q4. The variables used in this research are consumer price, rupiah to dollar exchange rate, producer price index, import price index, SBI interest rates, US wholesale price index. Data has sourced by Bank Of Indonesia and International Monetary Fund. The method used in this research is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that in the long-term exchange rate, producer price index, import price index, US wholesale price index had a positive effect on CPI while SBI interest rates had a negative effect to the consumer price. The impulse response function test states that in the first quarter only the variable itself was responded by the CPI, the second quarter import price index at the most by 1.2% was able to respond to the CPI. The results of the pass-through degree in Indonesia show that producer price is 0.009 and consumer price is -0.002. The result of variance decomposition shows that the import price index has the largest contribution in influencing the consumer price index. Have to reduce imports of raw materials for self-consumption, but have to import for re-export, so that domestic prices in Indonesia are stable.
Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis derajat pass-through di Indonesia yang dihitung dari kumulasi respon kurs terhadap IHK dan kurs terhadap kurs. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series triwulan dari tahun 1997Q3 hingga 2017Q4.Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antara lain indeks harga konsumen, nilai tukar rupiah per dolar, indeks harga produsen, indeks harga impor, suku bunga SBI, indeks harga perdagangan besar AS. Metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang variabel nilai tukar,indeks harga produsen, indeks harga impor, indeks harga perdagangan besar AS berpengaruh positif terhadap IHK sedangkan suku bunga SBI berpengaruh negatif terhadap IHK. Hasil uji impulse response function menyatakan bahwa pada kuartal pertama hanya variabel itu sendiri yang direspon oleh IHK, kuartal kedua indeks harga impor paling besar sebesar 1.2% mampu direspon IHK. Hasil derajat pass-through indeks harga produsen sebesar 0.009 dan indeks harga konsumen sebesar -0.002. Hasil variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa indeks harga impor mempunyai kontribusi terbesar dalam mempengaruhi indeks harga konsumen. Perlu mengurangi impor bahan baku untuk konsumsi sendiri, namun mengimpor untuk diekspor kembali supaya tingkat harga domestik di Indonesia stabil.
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Celebi, Kaan, and Michaela Hönig. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on the German Stock Market: Evidence for the Crisis, Pre- and Post-Crisis Periods." International Journal of Financial Studies 7, no. 2 (March 29, 2019): 18. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijfs7020018.
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Today we live in a post-truth and highly digitalized era characterized by a flow of (mis-) information around the world. Identifying the impact of this information on stock markets and forecasting stock returns and volatilities has become a much more difficult task, perhaps almost impossible. This paper investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors, German government bond yields, sentiment and other leading indicators on the main German stock index, namely the DAX30, for the time period from 1991 to 2018. Using a dataset on 24 factors and over a timeframe of about 27 years, we found evidence that across most subsamples, the Composite Leading Indicator (OECD), the Institute for Economic Research (ifo) Export Expectations index, the ifo Export Climate index, exports, the Consumer Price Index CPI, as well as 3 y German government bonds yields show delayed impacts on stock returns. We further found that the delayed impact of the constituents of the monetary aggregate M2 on stock returns changed direction between the crisis and post-crisis periods. Overall, the results illustrate that in the crisis period a larger number of factors and economic indicators had significant impacts on the stock returns compared to the pre- and post-crisis periods. This implies that in the post-crisis period a macro-driven market prevails.
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Takahashi, Nobuhiro, and Mita Takahashi. "MOVEMENT OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE INDEX IN TERMS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON A TWO-STAGE PRODUCTION MODEL." Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance 5, no. 3 (2017): 36–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.15604/ejef.2017.05.03.004.
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This paper analyzes the movement of intra-industry trade index when the exchange rate or the world price changes. In our two-stage production model, firms construct factories in a foreign country by foreign direct investment (FDI). The firms export components from the home country to the foreign factories, and import final products from the foreign factories. The foreign factories also sell the final products in the world market. Under this knockdown system, we research the movement of the intra-industry trade index of the home country. This paper shows that appreciation of the exchange rate does not always raise the intra-industry trade index. We also show that changes in the world price have the similar effect on the movement of the intra-industry trade index.
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Fidan, Halil. "Comparison of Citrus Sector Competitiveness between Turkey and EU-15 Member Countries." HortScience 44, no. 1 (February 2009): 89–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.44.1.89.
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A missing component of existing research on Turkey's citrus products is examination of their revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Such information would enable a comparison of Turkey and EU-15 countries in regard to citrus sector competitiveness. Therefore, this study calculates the RCA for citrus products and explores their competitiveness as well as components of their competitive performance. RCAs for citrus trade performances of both EU-15 countries and Turkey are examined, and the sources of export performance and competitiveness are newly presented. The results indicate that the principle of comparative advantage is a useful tool for understanding the future of citrus agriculture in EU-15 countries and Turkey. In line with the assumption that the dynamics of comparative advantage have become increasingly transparent as citrus markets have become less fettered by government trade, this study uses an RCA index to investigate the patterns of comparative advantage in the EU-15 countries and Turkey in regard to citrus exports. Since the beginning of the Entry Price System in the European Union in 1995, significant changes in citrus export performance have occurred. The RCA index of the Turkish citrus sector within EU-15 countries (RCAe) shows that Greece, Spain, Italy, and Portugal are Turkey's main competitors. The RCAe index and relative trade advantage index indicate that Turkey's competitive power is greater than those of Spain, Italy, Greece, and Portugal in lemon/limes and grapefruit exports.
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Huo, Da. "Impact of country-level factors on export competitiveness of agriculture industry from emerging markets." Competitiveness Review 24, no. 5 (October 14, 2014): 393–413. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cr-01-2012-0002.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the impact of country-level factors and aim to find out how the factors affect the export competitiveness of agricultural industries from emerging markets. Agricultural industries have been traditionally one of the important contributors to the increased exports from emerging markets. Design/methodology/approach – The revealed comparative advantage (RCA) approach is used to define the export competitiveness of agricultural industries in emerging markets. Regression and factor analysis are used to find out the relationship between export competitiveness and important country-level factors, such as wage cost, irrigated land area, food price index, export of agriculture products, domestic consumption demand and exchange rate, against US dollars of different countries from emerging markets. Findings – Export of agriculture products, irrigated land area and exchange rate against US dollars were found to have positive relationship with export competitiveness of agriculture industry. On the other hand, labor cost and domestic consumption demand were found to have a negative relationship with the export competitiveness. Practical implications – In transformation of emerging economies, a higher level of export, larger area of irrigated land and stable exchange rate of US dollars will benefit the agriculture export of emerging markets. The rising wage cost and domestic consumption need can restrain the export competitiveness of emerging markets. Originality/value – The research offers important hints for emerging markets to find their own ways to maintain a sustainable competitive advantage in export market by controlling the country-level factors. Also, it revealed the future problems that can appear in the transformation, with practical suggestions following. This research will be helpful to both policy-makers and global managers.
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Munadi, Ernawati. "PENURUNAN PAJAK EKSPOR DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA KE CINA (PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL)." Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 1, no. 3 (February 6, 2018): 47–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v1i3.303.
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The palm oil Industry is an important sector in the Indonesian economiy as it is one of the country’s major export earners as well as food source for her population.Indonesia is the world second largest producer of palm oil after Malaysia, accounting for about 34% OF The world production in the year 2006. Indonesia is also the largest consumer of palm oil in the developing economies, in 2006. Indonesia consumed a total of 5.5 mn tonnes of palm oil. Of this amount 76.75% is comprised of frying oil. About 55% of the production is exported in the form of crude palm oil mainly to Asian countries primarily to India and China and Eruropean countries. Debate on Indonesia’s palm oil policy was stimulated by the sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-1995 which resulted in the introduction of export tax rate on palm oil in order to maintain a certain level of domestic consumption.Using annual data for the period 1969-2006, an econometric approach mainly the error correction model. Was employed in this study This paper examines the impacts of reduction in export duty onthe import demand of Indonesian palm oil to China. The findings indicate that the quantity of palm oil exported to China is significantly influenced by changes in the soybean oil price, world palm oil price, Industrial Production Index (IPI) exchange rate and lagged of export demand of Indonesian palm oil to China by one year with the elasticity of 1,49, 1.47,0.24, 0.59, and 0.79, respectively. The coefficients for long run variables presented by the ECM are jointly not equal to zero.This result suggests that as a group, the long run variable (ECM) have influenced the changes in the export demand to China which is indicated by the significance of the coefficient. The simulation results suggest that the direct impact of reduction of export duty would increase the quantity exported to China. The Indonesia export to China from 95.36 thousand tones to 118,23 thousand tones.
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Beh, Woan Lin, and Wen Khang Yew. "The asymmetric responses of stock prices in US market." ITM Web of Conferences 36 (2021): 01013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20213601013.
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Machine learning and data analytics are so popular in making trading much more efficient by helping the investors to identify opportunities and reduce trading costs. Before applying suitable predictive modelling algorithms, it is crucial for investors or policymaker to understand the nature of the stock data properly. This paper investigates the dependency of macroeconomic factors against the stock markets in the United States using the nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. The analysis considered the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, and S&P 500 Index. Macroeconomic factors in this country such as consumer price index, export, interest rates, money supply, real effective exchange rates, total reserves, and gold price are considered in this study. In the findings, the NARDL approach shows that the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index are having bi-directional positive asymmetric effects to each other in the short run. In short-run, increasing the consumer price index is found to have a negative effect on Dow Jones Industrial Average Index but with a positive effect on S&P500 Index. In conclusion, this study aids investors and other market participants in making a more efficient investment decision.
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Pedram, Mehdi, and Maryam Ebrahimi. "The Effects of Economic Variables on Exchange Rate, Modeling and Forecasting: Case of Iran." Business and Management Horizons 3, no. 1 (May 25, 2015): 13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/bmh.v3i1.7675.
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This paper investigates the model estimation and data forecasting of exchange rate using artificial neural network. Recent studies have shown the classification and prediction power of the neural networks. It has been demonstrated that a neural network can approximate any continuous function. In this research, ANN is employed in training and learning processes and after modeling, the forecast performance is measured by making use of a loss function (RMSE). By sensitivity analysis, the importance and the weight of each economic variable on exchange rate such as consumer price index, old price, oil price and total value of export and import have been determined. The results show that Iran consumer price index is the most effective factor on exchange rate trend. In addition to, it is possible to estimate a model to forecast the value of exchange rate even by having access to a limited subset of data.
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Oye, Olubukoye Opeyemi, Adedoyin Isola Lawal, Ann Eneogu, and Joseph IseOlorunkanmi. "Does Exchange Rate Devaluation Affect Agricultural Output? Evidence from Nigeria." Binus Business Review 9, no. 2 (June 30, 2018): 115–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.21512/bbr.v9i2.4139.
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The purpose of this research was to examine the effect of exchange rate devaluation on agricultural output in Nigeria. This investigation used the available time series data of 30 years (1986-2016) from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics. Moreover, the real effective exchange rate was used as the proxy for currency devaluation and Consumer Price Index (CPI) was used as a proxy for inflation. Other variables were Agricultural Gross Domestic Product (AGDP), Price of Export (PEXP), and Real Agricultural Exports (RAEXP). The research through the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip Perron’s unit root tests find that the variables used in the model are integrated in the same order. Using the Johansen’s cointegration test results show that the variables are cointegrated. The results of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) indicates that a percent increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), a proxy for devaluation. It will lead to a decrease in gross agricultural output. This implies that total agricultural output responds negatively to exchange rate devaluation. The result of the causality test by Toda and Yamamoto reveals that a unidirectional causality exists between real effective exchange rate and price of exports. This shows that a significant relationship exists between exchange rate devaluation and gross exports earnings. It reveals that the past values of the price of exports can be used to predict the current values of agricultural output.
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Záboj, Marek. "Change of trade balance analysis in agricultural and food products with using of index pyramidal system." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 55, no. 6 (2007): 197–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun200755060197.
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The paper deals with analysis of the trade balance in Czech Republic in the field of agricultural and food products. The main goal is to determine the influence of analytical indicators; in this case these are changes of quantity and average unit price of export and import; over the synthetic indicator – change of trade balance. Next step of this analysis is to calculate the portions of change of inputs volume and change of total productivity of inputs over the change of export caused by change of quantity. To fulfill this aim it is suitable to use methods for pyramidal decomposition of indicators – chain substitution, logarithmic and functional methods. These methods are compared and the results are interpreted.
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Adediran, Olanrewaju Adewole, Kolawole Samuel Adeyemo, and Samson Alalade. "Globalization, capital market and economic development in Nigeria." Journal of Governance and Regulation 4, no. 1 (2015): 57–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.22495/jgr_v4_i4_p6.
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This article examines the economic integration caused by globalization and effect of capital market in Nigeria context. It establishes the type of relationship and level of significance of globalization and capital market on the economic development. Globalization concept is framed as import plus export divided by growth ratio. The capital market was determined in terms of proxy (by GDP) by price index. The growth ratio assessed the level of development using econometric model. The results suggest that sound economic reform and financial policies are necessary to achieve sustainable development in Nigeria. However, there is need to increase exports, reduce imports and control exchange rate for Nigeria to achieve sustainable economic development.
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Hamulczuk, Mariusz, and Marta Skrzypczyk. "COVID-19, spatial market integration and producer prices: A case study of EU agri-food markets." Studies in Agricultural Economics 123, no. 2 (August 14, 2021): 53–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.7896/j.2137.
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The spread of COVID-19 has had a signifi cant impact on economic and social activities, with the agri-food sector being no exception. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, numerous studies investigating its sectoral infl uence have been carried out, putting emphasis on demand and supply shocks and changes in trade volumes. However, there has not been much research into the implications of the pandemic for prices. To fi ll the research gap, this paper is an attempt to examine the impact of COVID-19 on producer prices in the EU-27 in Q2 and Q3 of 2020. The study is based on monthly data on trade in agri-food commodities according to the SITC classifi cation in 2015-2020 and the monthly producer prices index of food (2015 = 100) in the EU countries. It was assumed that the agri-food trade balance is the key factor determining the level and changes of domestic prices. The theoretical background for empirical research is provided by a spatial partial equilibrium model and the concept of spatial market integration. The results of the study reveal that there is a negative and statistically signifi cant relationship between an export-import ratio (which illustrates the country’s self-suffi ciency level) in the pre-COVID-19 period and price changes in Q2 of 2020 as well as Q3 of 2020. However, no statistically signifi cant results were obtained for the regression models explaining the relationship between changes in the export/import ratio and price changes in second and third quarters of 2020.
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Zahroh, Fatimatuz, Z. Zainuri, and Rafael Purtomo. "Pengaruh Volatilitas Nilai Tukar terhadap Volume Perdagangan Internasional di ASEAN-3." e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi 6, no. 1 (May 24, 2019): 28. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/ejeba.v6i1.11071.
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This study aims to determine the effect of exchange rate volatility on export demand in ASEAN 3 countries namely Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. In this research use Error Correction Model (ECM) Domawitz-Elbadawi method to know how dependent variable influence to independent variable in short term and in long term. The data used in this study is secondary data covering data exchange rate, CPI (Consumer Price Index), FDI (Foreig Direct Investment) and Export from 1997Q1- 2016Q3. The results show that in the short run the exchange rate volatility has a negative and significant effect on export demand in the country of Indonesia while for the Philippines and Thailand the exchange rate volatility has a negative but insignificant effect. In the long term, exchange rate volatility has negative but not significant effect on export demand in Indonesia and Thailand, while in Philippine, exchange rate volatility has positive and significant effect on export demand. It shows the importance of exchange rate policy in improving Indonesia’s export performance. Keywords: Exchangerate, Export, and ECM) Domawitz-Elbadawi.