Academic literature on the topic 'Export price index'

We examine export and import prices for Russian commodities relative to world prices during 2002—2011 across aggregated and disaggregated commodity groups. We also propose an aggregated export price competitiveness index as a tool of monitoring quality dynamics and a composite price competitiveness rating by commodity groups.

Recently, the world has experienced striking economic and policy changes, and subsequent uncertainties have impacts on dairy trade price fluctuations. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) methodology was established in this paper to better understand international butter export prices transmission, the feedback between the economic context changes and price fluctuations, and the link between the global butter market, energy market, and other commodity markets. We assessed which key factors are typically associated with butter export price movements with regards to shocks to crude oil price, palm oil price, farm-gate raw milk price, exchange rates, and consumer price index (CPI) for food of the EU, New Zealand, the U.S., and the rest of world (RoW), respectively. Using generalized impulse response functions, this study found that decreases in farm-gate raw milk price could be swiftly transmitted to butter export prices of not only a home country but other foreign countries. However, palm oil price and crude oil price merely affects global butter export prices. We also found that U.S. dollar depreciations against the Euro will cause a decline in U.S. butter export price. It is concluded that butter export markets are not well-integrated, yet butter export prices of New Zealand and the U.S. are highly linked.

World prices influence international trade and so economic precision is required. This foreign trade research study examines exports and imports of India’s major oilseeds from 1990-91 to 2015-16. The methodology employed is the estimation of CAGR, Instability Index, Export import price elasticities of oilseeds and identification of top export import destinations. The results show that export prices of groundnut, soybean, niger, safflower, sesamum and sunflower were higher than import prices indicating that India has a comparative advantage in these crops. The terms of trade of India’s oilseeds were found to have increased for all oilseeds except mustard crop. The exports price growth rate of groundnut, niger, safflower and sunflower were higher than imports. The study found that among oilseeds, mustard (0.97 %) has high export elasticity and that export imports prices of groundnut, soybean, safflower, sunflower and niger crops were found to be stable. It also found that India’s major exports destinations for groundnut, soybean, niger seeds, sesamum, and sunflower are Indonesia, USA, South Korea and Philippines respectively, whereas major imports destinations are Germany, USA, Nigeria and Ukraine for groundnut, soybean, sesamum, and sunflower respectively. The study suggests that multilateral trade relationship with countries having high export imports share would help in smooth trade of oilseeds. These findings have important implications for policy research and R&D strategies in response and re-orientation of the R&D system to the changing trade scenario to benefit from WTO.

This study aims to assess and analyze the Effect of Export, Impor and Consumer Price Index in economic growth in Indonesia from 2000 to 2014. This research uses quantitative descriptive approach with the nature of verification explanatory method. The data used are secondary data in the form of Export, Import, and the Consumer Price Index of Indonesian Economic Growth (GDP) in 2000-2014. The results showed that export push the GDP more effectively: compared to import sector and CPI. Regression analysis showed that the constant value of GDP was 0.526. Also, the Export Coefficients value is 0.015, the Import Coefficients value is -0,026 and CPI is -0.2303. Meaning that 1 percent of the value of exports will increase GDP by 1.5 percent, 1 percent of imports will lower the value of GDP by 2.6 percent and 1 percent of the CPI will lower the value of GDP by 23.03 percent. This means that Exports variable boots GDP more effective from Import sector and the Consumer Price Index. Significance test results showed that the variables of export, import and CPI jointly influence economic growth (GDP) with the alpha (a) of 5% as shown by the F-statistic significant value of 0.74, greater than a=0,05. In other words, the independent variabel (exports, imports and CPI) jointly affect the dependent variable (GDP)

A breeding objective (aggregate genotype) for dairy cattle based on returns, net of feed costs, from yield of fat, protein and carrier (the non-fat, non-protein component of the milk) was developed. Returns were estimated using a forecast of the future Australian dairy market structure, and feed costs were estimated from the metabolizable energy required to produce each of three milk components.The effects of erors in forecasting future conditions on economic weights and efficiency of index selection of sires were examined.Economic weights varied widely when subject to errors in the price of milk components within markets, errors in the export price for milk and errors in feed cost.Selection based on an optimal index of sire expected breeding values for fat, protein and milk was sensitive to low export market prices, high feed costs, high protein price and high carrier price. This index was quite insensitive to variation in prices and costs opposite in sign to those above, to variation in milk prices on the domestic markets, and to variation in the size of quotas on domestic markets.

The main objective of this study is to assess the macroeconomic determinants of stock price variability in Pakistan. The quarterly data on macroeconomic variables (Gross Domestic Product, Foreign Direct Investment, Interest Rates, Exports, Money Supply and Unemployment Rate) and KSE-100 Index as proxy of stock price variation for the period of 1992:01 to 2012:04 is taken for the empirical investigation. Johansen co-integration test and VECM is used for this purpose. The analysis of this study specifies that the foreign direct investment, interest rates, export and unemployment rate have significant and negative impact on KSE-100 index, while money supply has found to be a significant and positive determinant of stock prices. On the other hand gross domestic product have a positive but insignificant impact on stock prices in Pakistan.

This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.

A Study of Economic Factors Affecting Thailand’s Frozen Shrimp Export Volume to the United States and Japan which hypothesized that there are economic factors that affect the quantity of frozen shrimp exports from Thailand to the United States, namely the Manufacturing Production Index classified by production activity, Frozen Seafood (MPI), Domestic Wholesale Shrimp Price (PRIshrimp), United States Gross Domestic Product (GDPU.S.A.), Per Capita Income of US Population (PCIU.S.A.), Rate Of Change In Private Consumption And Consumption Expenditures Of The US Private Sector (PCEU.S.A.) and assumed that there are economic factors affecting the quantity of frozen shrimp exports to Japan, namely the Manufacturing Production Index classified by production activity, Frozen Seafood Category (MPI), Domestic Wholesale Shrimp Price (PRIshrimp) , Japan Gross Domestic Product (GDPJapan), Per Capita Income Of Japanese Population (PCIJapan), Rate Of Change In Private Consumption And Consumption Expenditures Of The Japanese Private Sector (PCEJapan) which are consistent with the research of Pathumnakul, S., Khamjan, S., & Piewthongngam, K. (2007). Will use secondary data by collecting data on a monthly basis from January 2017 to December 2019 with the analysis of complex regression equations. By the least-squares estimation method, the study found that the economic factors affecting frozen shrimp export volume of Thailand to the United States in the same direction are manufacturing production index classified by production activity, frozen seafood category, wholesale shrimp prices in the country, the gross domestic product of USA, income per capita of the United States population and rate of change in US private consumption expenditure has no effect on the export volume of frozen shrimp from Thailand to the United States. For economic factors affecting the frozen shrimp export volume of Thailand to Japan in the same direction is statistically significant, the manufacturing production index classified by production activity, frozen seafood category, wholesale shrimp prices in the country, the gross domestic product of Japan, income per capita of the Japanese population and the rate of change in Japanese private consumption expenditure has no effect on the export volume of frozen shrimp from Thailand to Japan. Keywords: economic factors, frozen shrimp, export volume.

ABSTRACTIn order to understand Uruguay’s long-run economic evolution it becomes crucial to interpret its export performance during the First Globalization. The lack of accuracy of official figures, especially official prices used, calls for an adjustment of Uruguayan export series. We have used empirical evidence to test the accuracy of quantities and values of export records, first, according to import partners’ records and, second, according to international market prices. Results show a general undervaluation of official export values during the period along with severe distortions in the registers caused by transit trade. We reconstructed new Uruguayan export f.o.b values and an export price index which present a more unstable and less dynamic export evolution than that of neighbouring Argentina.

Indonesia’s economic growth can no longer depends on internal trade only but needs to depend on the export and import with the global market, thus macroeconomic influence towards export and import needs further research.Thus, this research focuses on the effect of multiple macroeconomic variables which are the rate of loans, money supply, inflation and consumer price index towards export and import in Indonesia. The data used in this research are secondary data acquired from BPS, BI and the Ministry of Trade during the periode of 2012-2018, which are analyzed using the classic assumption tests (normality test, autocorrelation test, heteroscedasticity test, and multicollinearity test) followed by the multiple regression analysis. Based on the F test we concluded that all the dependent variables are simultaneously effecting both import and export, while the T test shows that only the Consumer Price Index does not have any effect towards both import and export while the other variables effect both import and export, this signifies that Consumer Price Index does not need to be considered in analyzing and forecasting of both import and export.

Sammanfattning Examensarbete i finansiering, Civilekonomprogrammet Ekonomihögskolan vid Linnéuniversitetet, VT-2017 Författare: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Handledare: Håkan Locking Examinator: Andreas Stephan Titel: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Bakgrund: Växelkurssvängningar har studerats av flertalet forskare då detta anses vara en osäkerhet vars effekt inte är säkerställd. Då internationell handel är en viktig faktor för tillväxt och välstånd i en nation är dess samband med volatiliteten betydelsefullt att fastställa för att identifiera huruvida inverkan på landet är positiv eller negativ.   Problemformulering: Har volatiliteten i eurons växelkurs mot rörliga valutor någon påverkan på den bilaterala handeln mellan eurozonen och andra europeiska länder?   Syfte: Att kunna urskilja effekten av växelkursvolatilitetens påverkan på export och import vilket kan gynna företag i dess handelsbeslut, strategier och framtidprognostisering.    Metod: Undersökningens tillvägagångssätt grundar sig i en tidsserieanalys där beräkningar för volatiliteten ligger som grund till förklaringsvariabeln i modellen för att studera dess effekt på handeln, vilket skattas genom en noga utvald ARDL-metod. Regressionerna ger både ett lång- och kortsiktigt samband för att visa skillnader i influenser från volatiliteten på export och import för Sverige och Norge som studeras i rapporten.   Slutsatser: De erhållna resultaten för både Sveriges och Norges export visar att ingen påverkan alls kan urskiljas från växelkurssvängningar vilket innebär att exporten fortskrider oavsett grad av volatilitet vilket kan förklaras genom dess förmodade likheter i handelsmönster, varukategorier och exponering mot euroländerna. En möjlig slutsats är även att det inte är volatiliteten i sig som påverkar handeln, utan underliggande faktorer som inte kontrollerats för, vilket åskådliggjordes när oljeprisindex inkluderandes och eliminerade volatilitetens effekt på Norges export. Importen visade en långsiktig negativ effekt av volatiliteten för Norge och en kortsiktig positiv påverkan för Sverige. Skillnader i importen antas bero på olikheter i valutasäkring, trögheter i ekonomin och relationen till EU.
Abstract   Master Thesis in finance, Business and Administration School of Business and Economics at Linnaeus University, VT-2017 Authors: Emma Magnusson & Jonathan Hillgren Advisor: Håkan Locking Examiner: Andreas Stephan Title: For better or for worse – A study on the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade   Background: Exchange rate fluctuations have been studied by numerous researchers, since it is thought of as an uncertainty whose effect is not guaranteed. Because international trade is an important factor to growth and wealth for a country, its connection to volatility is important to establish in order to identify whether the influence on the nation is positive or negative.   Problem: Does the volatility in the exchange rate between the euro and floating currencies affect bilateral trade between the euro area and other European countries?   Purpose: The purpose of the study is to distinguish the effect of the exchange rate volatility on export and import, which can favor companies in their trade decisions and strategies.   Method: The approach of the study is built on a time series analysis where estimates of volatility are underlying the explanatory variable to find its effect on trade, which is calculated by a carefully selected ARDL method. The regressions obtain both long-term and short-term relationships to show differences in the effect from the volatility on export and import for Sweden and Norway, the studied countries in this report.   Conclusions: The results for the export of both Sweden and Norway do not show any impact from the exchange rate fluctuations, which means the export continues regardless of the level of volatility. This can be explained by their similarities in the pattern of trade, products and exposure to the euro countries. Another possible conclusion is that the volatility itself is not affecting trade but that the underlying factors not being controlled for are, which was shown when the oil price index was included and eliminated the effect of the volatility on Norwegian exports. The import exposed a long-term negative effect of the volatility for Norway and a short-term positive effect for Sweden. The disparities are assumed to be due to differences in the use of hedging, inertia in the economy and the relationship with the European Union.

Abstract of thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Commerce and Management Dynamics of macroeconomic variables in Fiji : a cointegrated VAR analysis By Shiu Raj Singh The objective of this study is to examine how macroeconomic variables of Fiji inter-relate with aggregate demand and co-determine one another using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. This study did not use a prior theoretical framework but instead used economic justification for selection of variables. It was found that fiscal policy, which is generally used as a stabilisation tool, did not have a positive effect on real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the short term. Effects on GDP growth were positive over the long term but not statistically significant. Furthermore, expansionary fiscal policy caused inflationary pressures. Fiji has a fixed exchange rate regime, therefore, it was expected that the focus of monetary policy would be the maintenance of foreign reserves. It was, however, found that monetary expansion in the short term resulted in positive effects on real GDP growth and resulted in inflation. The long term effects of monetary policy on real GDP growth were negative, which are explained by the fixed exchange rate regime, endogenous determination of money supply by the central bank, an unsophisticated financial market and, perhaps, an incomplete transmission of the policy. Both merchandise trade and visitor arrivals growth were found to positively contribute to short term and long term economic growth. Political instability was found not to have significant direct effects on real GDP growth but caused a significant decline in visitor arrivals which then negatively affected economic growth in the short term.

碩士
萬能科技大學
經營管理研究所
105
The purpose of this study is to explore and forecast the number and amount of Vietnamese oil import and export. We use many methods such as the naïve forecast, moving average method, exponential smoothing method, and simple regression analysis as a predictive tool to forecast the number and amount of Vietnamese oil import and export. The real data manipulated in this study were obtained from the Ministry of Economic Affairs of Vietnam General Statistics Office. It includes the monthly number and amount of Vietnamese oil import and export in AD 2008 to AD 2016. We select the top countries for analysis the actual situation of Vietnamese oil import and export to major countries. (Top five countries export: Malaysia, Japan, Australia, Singapore, China), (Top six countries import: Taiwan, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, China) The results of this study reveal the exponential smoothing method have more forecast accuracy than the naïve forecast and moving average method respectively. Applying the linear regression analysis method for forecasting the amount of Vietnamese oil exports in January 2016 to December 2016 yields the forecasting ability is reasonable. Especially, the value of MAPE is just 0.34 to export to Australia. In future research we provide the following suggestions: 1. The follow-up study can be different for Vietnam's import and export projects to predict different industrial products. 2. The follow-up study can use different prediction methods, such as seasonal factor addition mode, seasonal factor multiplication mode, time series method is not predicted, and the results compared with the various methods of this study, in order to find a better prediction method. 3. The follow-up study can be on the Vietnamese oil import and export to the country's unit price research and forecast for the import and export of oil traders reference.

碩士
中華大學
資訊管理學系碩士班
103
Because of the special status of the dollar in the international monetary system, the dollar exchange rate movements on the commodity markets and the countries’ economic have an important impact. In the market, most of the international raw materials denominated in dollars, even more dollar to some extent reflects the value of global merchandise trade. The US Dollar Index (USDX) is based on the trade settlement amount of each major countries around the world who trade with the United States, and it is also the integrated index reflecting the dollar in the international foreign exchange market exchange rate situation, which is used to measure the degree of change in currency basket to measure the degree of strength and the importance of the dollar on international market. Gold has been the center of attention in the financial markets, because of its maintain and increase the value, the resistance of inflation, hedging and other functions. Also, many result pointed out the negative correlation between the gold and the dollar in the past studies. The relative studies currently were emphasized the relationship between gold, oil and the dollar, and some discuss the relevance of gold and stock prices. In this study, the 783 sets of data which including the US dollar index closing price, the US dollar index technical and gold closing price during 2012 to 2014 were collected. The screening Decision Tree was used to select highly relative variable of USDX closing price, the study used Fuzzy c-means clustering method for grouping. After the data were grouped using the Resilient Back-Propagation to predict the results, and the RPROP accuracy as the control group for the experimental of Time Series comparison between the two. The results found that there are high-positive correlation between gold and the US dollar index technical, furthermore the prediction accuracy rate is also higher than control group by the proposed research model in this study.

碩士
國立東華大學
公共行政研究所
97
The theme of this study is to explore the relation between average wage of workers index and consumer price index in China. The contents of this study include theories of research method to Granger causality test, the decision to wage and price standard as well as the review about the research of wage and price reform in China. In addition, this study introduces how the wage effects price in terms of firm cost and labor earnings, and analyses how the price influences wage in terms of labor's life and firm's revenue. This research is based on the theories of Granger causality test established by Granger in 1969, make use of China Monthly Statistics to build up the quarter data during 1992-2007 and establish long-term time series observations on basis of above acquired data, in order to test the causal relationship between the wage and the price. In this research, according to the statistical analysis, it is found that wage and price have feedback correlation in 1992-2007. The price fluctuation promoted wage growth in 1992-1998, while the wage growth influences price inflation in 1999-2007.

碩士
國立成功大學
國際企業研究所碩博士班
101
Financial crisis occurred in 2008 impacted Taiwan's economy. It frustrated confidence in the consumption and people became being conservative on the consumption; in the stock market, the stock prices plunged in 2008; the Taiwan stock price index dropped below 4000 point; trading has constituted a majority part of Taiwan GDP where international trade and foreign exchange reserves indeed has been positioned significantly in Taiwan economy. This Study aimed to discuss all changes made on these macroeconomic in Taiwan and in which means our government is able to improve it with changes made on these data? In the thesis herein, Taiwan’s growth rate of consumption expenses, stock price, import and export were served as the dependent variables and among of which, important independent variables were identified; then, the financial crisis occurred in 2008 was served as the boundary to verify. Indicated from the empirical test, consumption and interest rate and national income has positive connection; the stock price index and economic leading indicators, price-earnings ratio, price-books ratio has positive relevancy; they have negative relevancy with the yield rate; import and national income and consumer price index are in positive relevancy and negative relevancy with NT Dollar exchange rate (NTD/USD); export has positive relevancy with NT Dollar exchange rate, foreign income and economic leading indicators, where only consumption and stock price index are influenced by financial crisis significantly (negative effect).

碩士
國立清華大學
計量財務金融學系
100
This study are base on manipulating the method of Artificial Intelligence to improve the flaw when people maneuvered technical or experience analysis merely, as well as modifying the shortcomings of Eight Indicators, which considered only price and quantity. Therefore, the traditional analyses are superseded by measuring the variation among three sampling points, variety technical indicators and inverse neutral network to establish a model; with that people could forecast the closing price on the day and the opening price on the next day of Taiwan weighted stock index future. Data collection is from third of January, 2011 to 29th of November, 2011. Some consequences from experiment are drawn as following, 1. Implement of inverse neutral network to project the tendency of Taiwan weighted stock index future is workable. 2. As inputting the same variable, the overnight effect would dilute the accurate rate. 3. Exercise modificatory BIAS as a input to predict the opening and closing market model would be more accurate than use MA, RSI and KD indicators.

碩士
國立臺北科技大學
管理國際學生碩士專班 (IMBA)
102
Since the last couple of years, Nicaragua’s international exchange has undergone a very steady growth pace. There are a lot of factors that influence this result, but as we take a further look, it can be observed that their imports and their exports have suffer from and unstable growth during the same period of growth pace. This paper involves the use of multiple linear regression to analyze the impact of these factors and understand the relation of the variables with the demands of imports. These variables can be commonly nominated as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), exchange rate and lagged exports. With the result of this study and by using our proposed model, it’s hoped to demonstrate the relevance of the determinants towards the demand of imports in Nicaragua. Furthermore, all the data required for this study will be gathered from the periods of 2005-2013 by trimester, in order to have a better understanding and to evaluate the impact of these factors in the demand of imports in the Nicaraguan market.

The book deals with the 1997 Asian currency crisis and analyses the causes and consequences of the crisis.The two hypotheses, fundamental and panic/herd behavior hypotheses, which are often viewed as competing, are also examined. The first hypothesis states that fundamental imbalances triggered the Asian currency and financial crisis in 1997.The crisis occurred because the economies had deteriorating current accounts, a slow down in growth rates and short-term debt approaching a dangerous level; while the second hypothesis states that sudden shifts in market expectations and confidence were the cause of the initial financial turmoil.When the crisis erupted, it caused panic among domestic and foreign investors. The main focus of this book is to evaluate these two approaches and to examine whether there was evidence of insolvency prior to the crisis in four Asian countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines. A solvency index, originally popularized by Cohen, is calculated for each country.An analysis of the trade sector is undertaken in which the dynamic OLS is employed. Subsequently, the price elasticities obtained from the export demand model together with the GDP supply elasticity are used to calculate the index. From the analysis, it appears that all countries were solvent prior to the crisis where the percentage of actual debt service paid (in 1997) was greater than the percentage that must be paid to be solvent. This suggests that further external credit could have solved the problem, as it was a matter of short-term liquidity difficulties and panic, rather than insolvency.

AbstractDespite enduring political rhetoric that promotes Australia as ‘the lucky country’ and ‘the land of the fair go’, recent decades have seen a noticeable increase in levels of income inequality. This growing economic divide has driven housing prices up and left lower-income families unable to access the housing market in inner-city locations. In contrast to other countries, Australia’s socioeconomic segregation does not overlap with ethnic segregation. Australia’s highly regulated immigration program has resulted in a relatively well-educated and employable foreign-born population who largely reside in middle-income neighbourhoods. These particularities make Australia an interesting context to explore patterns of socioeconomic segregation over time. In this chapter, we will utilise both traditional measures of segregation (such as the dissimilarity index) as well more spatialised measures (such as location quotients and Local Morans I) to assess socioeconomic segregation at the local level. Drawing on four waves of census data (2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016), we explore how socioeconomic segregation has changed over time across nearly 500 neighbourhoods in Melbourne. We further examine the degree to which socioeconomic segregation aligns with ethnic segregation patterns and levels in this city. We find patterns of socioeconomic segregation remain relatively unchanging over time in Melbourne. Additionally, our findings highlight important differences in patterns and levels of socioeconomic and ethnic segregation in the Australian context.

This chapter analyses economic development through the lens of a newly developed index: the structural modernization index. This index combines two dimensions that have been widely invoked as prime drivers of economic development namely, structural change and technological catch-up. For each country, the index calculates the productivity gap with respect to the world frontier in activities that typically represent the modern sector of the economy and weights this relative productivity by the employment share of those activities in the total labour force. The index is calculated for a sample of 115 countries over the period 1960–2014. It is used to explore the relationship between structural modernization and the ability to escape poverty and middle-income traps.

This paper aims to analyse the determinants of the food insecurity examining the relationship of important economic,social and natural factors with an overall food insecurity index that derived by dividing the food imports value to the sum of total exports and the net remittance inflows. Overall analysis is made by employing panel-data methods using a dataset that covers 18MENA countries and Turkey for the period of 1990-2014.Emprical results support the evidence of the harmful effect of price increases on food security. Furthermore, significance of education related variables and fresh water withdrawals indicate that the region has had benefit from nearly 30 years investment on education and intensive water exploitation, although poor water management and great waste of irrigation will most likely have negative effects on food security in the near future.

Haitian cities are more and more prone to demographic growth, which has a lasting effect on water distribution infrastructures, as well as those that make it possible to clean it up. They are in touch with the growing demand for water, but also with the management methods of this resource. Over the past 25 years, the enlarged agglomeration of Port-au-Prince, the largest agglomeration in the country, has experienced very strong urban expansion with the creation of new precarious spaces. The literature reports that Haiti is now more than 64% urban and 35% of its population lives in the metropolitan area of Port-au-Prince, in the West Department. Over the past decade, the footprint of the Port-au-Prince metropolitan area has grown by 35%. Recent observations on the formation and development of some slums highlight the country’s vulnerability to land-based hazards, which support this form of urbanization through the emergence of environmental displaced persons. Canaan, a human settlement created following the earthquake of January 12, 2010 by presidential decree, and inhabited by the victims of this event, has a deficit in infrastructure and basic urban services. The results of our previous work on this territory lead to a much more in-depth reflection on the need to develop an index of vulnerability to environmental diseases for the population. In fact, most of the households that live there face very precarious situations. The health conditions associated with this context expose the population to increased risks of disease. The measures taken by families to treat water at home do not seem to limit their vulnerability to environmental diseases (infectious and chronic). Improving living conditions in Canaan with a view to sustainability therefore underlies major challenges. What avenues of intervention should be favored to facilitate a favorable development of the population, while taking into account the strong constraints that weigh on their daily lives? The objective of this study is precisely to analyze the vulnerability of the population to water-borne diseases.

The main aim of this study is to identify the main development problems and the affecting factors of the agricultural sector of Kyrgyzstan. In order to achieve the goal, the relationship between the agricultural sector’s export, import, the employment rate and the amount of loans granted to the agricultural sector was analyzed by the ARDL cointegration method. Annual data for the period 1992-2014 was used in the analysis. According to the empirical results, a 1% increase in exports was found to increase agricultural production by 0.23% in the short term, while a 1% increase in the price index of agricultural products would increase production by 0.41%. In the long run it has been revealed that the production of agricultural products is affected by the increase in prices of agricultural products, the employment rate and the exports of agricultural products. The effect of the bank loans is weak. As a result, the state must implement an appropriate pricing policy in order to develop the agricultural sector.

There is an immense literature on the effects of exchange rate changes on macroeconomic indicators, specifically on the trade balance, growth, inflation, and overall productivity in open economies. One of the main attempts in the related literature is about ascertaining whether the exchange rate fluctuations alter domestic prices. This possible mechanism is called as the pass-through effect which is getting more important since the argument that exchange rate adjustment is a part of the solution for global rebalancing is empirically well-supported. Starting from this claim, this study purposes to explore whether there is an exchange rate pass-through effect in 19 high-income OECD countries over the period 1990-2015. To this end, using a panel data set of consumer price index, producer price index proxied by wholesale price index, the nominal effective exchange rates, and industrial production presented by the value-added share of industry sectors in gross domestic product, structural vector autoregressive (VAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models are estimated in an unbalanced panel data analysis procedure. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through effects on the domestic prices are significant but not that strong in both the short-run and the long-run. Expectedly, the pass-through effects tend to diminish over time. The study concludes that policy-makers need to consider policy actions accompanying the exchange rate changes to ensure domestic price stability which consequently interacts with many macroeconomic indicators.

The exchange rate channel of the monetary transmission mechanism has gained importance through widespread use of the floating exchange rate regime with increased globalization. In this context, this study aims to explore the effectiveness of the exchange rate channel on net exports and thereby total output and price level using vector auto-regression (VAR) models. The sample countries are Turkey and Argentina, which have employed a floating exchange rate regime since 22 February 2001 and 11 February 2002, respectively. The monthly data set consists of five macro-economic variables, which are short-term interest rates, the real effective exchange rate, net exports, the consumer price index, and the industrial production index for the period 2003 to 2010. The impulse-response function outcomes indicate that the operation of the exchange rate channel is effective, both in Turkey and in Argentina.

In the present paper, a comprehensive methodology for the thermo-economic performance optimization of an intercooled reheat (ICRH) gas turbine with recuperation for cogenerative applications has been presented covering a wide range of power-to-heat ratio values achievable. To show relative changes in the thermo-economic performance for the recuperated ICRH gas turbine cycle, results for ICRH, recuperated Brayton and simple Brayton cycles are also included in the paper. For the three load cases investigated, the recuperated ICRH gas turbine cycle provides the highest values of electric efficiency and Energy Saving Index for the cogenerative systems requiring low thermal loads (high power-to-heat ratio) compared to the other cycles. Also, this study showed, in general, that the recuperated ICRH cycle permits wider power-to-heat ratio range compared to the other cycles and for different load cases examined, a beneficial thermodynamic characteristic for the cogeneration applications. Furthermore, this study clearly shows that implementation of the recuperated ICRH cycle in a cogeneration system will permit to design a gas turbine which has the high specific work capacity and high electric efficiency at low value of the overall cycle pressure ratio compared to the other cycles studied. Economic performance of the investigated gas turbine cycles have been found dependent on the power-to-heat ratio value and the selected cost structure (fuel cost, electric sale price, steam sale price etc.), the results for a selected cost structure in the study are discussed in this paper.

In this paper, energy and economic analyses of vegetable oil fed energy systems are presented. The paper focuses on the process from oil to energy, while the economic costs of the transformation process of the biomass from field to oil is assumed embodied in the cost of the oils. Five different oils are considered (sunflower, rapeseed, soybean, palm and waste fried oil) as fuels for cogenerative Internal Combustion Engines, also running in combined cycle configuration. In particular, the considered combined cycle is composed of Internal Combustion Engines and Organic Rankine Cycle modules. Energy analyses allow the evaluation of the installed power, of the produced energies, and of the primary energy saving index for different yearly oil mass values. The results of the economic analyses as a function of yearly oil mass are also presented. The cost sources are highlighted in order to point out the major contributors. Moreover, analyses of the limit value of incentive and oil price, in order to guarantee plant profitability, are carried out.

Interest in Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) is developing from a need for fuel diversification as a hedge for natural gas price and availability. In IGCC, the gas turbine combustion system is critical to meeting this need. The combustion system also needs to achieve superior environmental performance. This paper discusses specific requirements for IGCC combustion systems that derive from characteristics of gasification fuels and integration with the gasification process. Tradeoffs between system physical design parameters and control strategies must be evaluated in terms of overall functionality of the IGGC process. The key metrics for evaluating “goodness” of design are reliability, availability, maintainability (RAM), robustness to process variability, response to upsets and trips, time to synchronization and startup and shutdown automation. For IGCC, high availability is achieved from the capability of the turbine to robustly co-fire low-calorific synthesis gas with supplementary fuels. Co-firing compensates for shortfalls in gasifier output and maintains continuity of power service during servicing of the gasification plant. Controls need to provide seamless transfers between varying levels of syngas and supplementary fuel, and over the widest range of fuel mixes and power levels. Low calorific fuels provide special challenges to control system design. Variability in syngas composition, temperature and pressure will impact the minimum and maximum nozzle pressure drops and controllability. The effect of fuel constituents on controllability is captured in the modified Wobbe index. Stability and margin against flameout is captured in the upper-to-lower flammability ratio. The paper discusses the restrictions on these parameters for IGCC combustion systems. Control hardware and manifolding necessary with low calorific fuel can potentially conflict with accessibility to the gas turbine. Safe transfers from natural gas to syngas and shutdowns require purge strategies that account for residual energy in ductwork. Finally, the design of the Exxon Singapore IGCC control system is described which provides an extended range of cofiring and load control.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Macroeconomic Summary Overall inflation (1.61%) and core inflation (excluding food and regulated items) (1.11%) both declined beyond the technical staff’s expectations in the fourth quarter of 2020. Year-end 2021 forecasts for both indicators were revised downward to 2.3% and 2.1%, respectively. Market inflation expectations also fell over this period and suggested inflation below the 3% target through the end of this year, rising to the target in 2022. Downward pressure on inflation was more significant in the fourth quarter than previously projected, indicating weak demand. Annual deceleration among the main groups of the consumer price index (CPI) was generalized and, except for foods, was greater than projected in the October report. The CPI for goods (excluding foods and regulated items) and the CPI for regulated items were subject to the largest decelerations and forecasting discrepancies. In the first case, this was due in part to a greater-than-expected effect on prices from the government’s “VAT-fee day” amid weak demand, and from the extension of some price relief measures. For regulated items, the deceleration was caused in part by unanticipated declines in some utility prices. Annual change in the CPI for services continued to decline as a result of the performance of those services that were not subject to price relief measures, in particular. Although some of the overall decline in inflation is expected to be temporary and reverse course in the second quarter of 2021, various sources of downward pressure on inflation have become more acute and will likely remain into next year. These include ample excesses in capacity, as suggested by the continued and greater-than-expected deceleration in core inflation indicators and in the CPI for services excluding price relief measures. This dynamic is also suggested by the minimal transmission of accumulated depreciation of the peso on domestic prices. Although excess capacity should fall in 2021, the decline will likely be slower than projected in the October report amid additional restrictions on mobility due to a recent acceleration of growth in COVID-19 cases. An additional factor is that low inflation registered at the end of 2020 will likely be reflected in low price adjustments on certain indexed services with significant weight in the CPI, including real estate rentals and some utilities. These factors should keep inflation below the target and lower than estimates from the previous report on the forecast horizon. Inflation is expected to continue to decline to levels near 1% in March, later increasing to 2.3% at the end of 2021 and 2.7% at year-end 2022 (Graph 1.1). According to the Bank’s most recent survey, market analysts expect inflation of 2.7% and 3.1% in December 2021 and 2022, respectively. Expected inflation derived from government bonds was 2% for year-end 2021, while expected inflation based on bonds one year forward from that date (FBEI 1-1 2022) was 3.2%.