Academic literature on the topic 'Export market potential'

China and Russia are important agricultural countries in the world. Expanding exports and increasing sales of agricultural products play an important role in the economic development of both countries. To understand the current situation of agricultural exports of the two countries and formulate strategies to expand the marketing of agricultural products, this paper uses the UN Comtrade Database 2009-2018 on Chinese and Russian bilateral agricultural export sales and other trade data to calculate the (expansion margin) and (price margin) of agricultural exports, (quantity margin), to analyze the types, prices, and quantities of exported agricultural products. The results show that China exports to Russia mainly labor-intensive types of agricultural products such as processed agricultural and horticultural products, accounting for 87.46% of total agricultural exports on average. The increase in exports is mainly due to the continuous increase in the prices of exported agricultural products. Russia exports to China mainly land-intensive types of agricultural products such as animal products, grains, oilseeds and fat products, which accounted for an average of 79.07% of total agricultural exports. The increase in exports was mainly due to the continuous increase in types and quantities of agricultural products to develop the export potential of agricultural products and expand sales. In addition, China should expand the types and quantities of agricultural products exported, and Russia should increase the added value of agricultural products and raise the export prices of agricultural products.

Indonesia is one of the largest natural rubber exporters in the world. On the other hand, the potential for natural rubber in the world market is enormous. The Asian continent is the largest market for Indonesian natural rubber, followed by American and European markets. Currently there have been many studies on the competitiveness of Indonesian natural rubber exports to the international market, but so far there has not been much research on the competitiveness and potential of rubber exports specifically to European countries. This study aims to determine the competitiveness and the potential of Indonesian natural rubber in European countries, namely Germany, France, and Spain. The method used in this study is descriptive analytics, meanwhile Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) was used to determine Indonesia’s competitiveness in each of the partner countries, on the other hand Export Product Dynamic (EPD) was used to determine the performance of Indonesian natural rubber in partner countries. The RCA index shows that Indonesia has competitive advantages in the partner countries, and the EPD matrix indicated that Indonesia is in a rising star position in the German, French and Spanish markets. To strengthen this position, Indonesia needs to increase their export value through the increase in production.

Export is one of the economic parameters of a country which can increase the country’s economy which must be maintained and increased in value. In the last ten years from 2010 to 2019, Indonesia’s export performance fluctuated and decreased, resulting in a trade balance deficit in 2012-2014 and 2018-2019. Based on the problem, Indonesia needs to make strategic efforts. One of the efforts that can be done is to develop agricultural exports. One of the products that has the potential to be developed is sago flour. This research analyzed the competitiveness and export potential of Indonesian sago flour. This study used secondary data which is panel data consisting of time series and cross section data. The methods used were the RCA, EPD, and X- Model. The results of the analysis using RCA and EPD concluded that Indonesian sago flour has strong competitiveness in the export market. Then the results of the X-model analysis show that sago flour exports have the potential for optimistic market development in the Philippine, Thailand and Chinese markets and the potential export markets are Japan, Malaysia, Hong kong, and Sri Lanka

The article identifies the volume of underserved markets for the development of Ukraine's foreign trade with the EU. The Ukraine's export potential on the EU underserved market is analyzed. It is established that the intensification of trade relations between the Ukraine and EU is a mutually beneficial process, and export potential of Ukraine in the EU market for goods whose exports to the Russian Federation have decreased is of particular importance. The main foreign markets of Ukraine for the export of agricultural and industrial goods from Ukraine have been identified. The main commodity groups of underserved markets to the EU have been identified, the exports of which to the Russian Federation have decreased the most. According to the results of the study, it has been concluded that the underserved markets of the European Union play an important role in the development of Ukraine's trade: first, they allow reorientation of exports of Ukrainian goods, the import of which is prohibited into the customs territory of the Russian Federation, to EU markets; secondly, they help to identify directions for the modernization of Ukrainian production in accordance with the unmet needs of the European goods market. It is concluded that the process of deepening mutual trade in underserved markets in a free trade area is mutually beneficial for Ukraine and the European Union, as trading partners can benefit from increased trade flows, and establishing international partnership between the parties can bring additional benefits in the long run.

Countries in Europe, China and USA are the main destination of Indonesia's CPO exports so that in order to avoid more significant declining in value and export volume because of trade war and the existance of CPO black campaign, Indonesia must take a diversified step, especially for export market diversification. This study illustrates the condition of Indonesian CPO competitiveness in non-traditional markets, measures the position of Indonesia CPO export market attractiveness, and analyzes factors influence CPO exports. Data used are secondary data obtained from various resources. The time series and cross sections data consecutively consist of variables from 2002 to 2017 and 11 nontraditional importing countries. Time series variables consist of volume export of Indonesia CPO, exchange rate, export price, Indonesia GDP, importers GDP, and economic distance. X–model product export potential and gravity model were used to address the objectives. Indonesian CPO has optimistic market development potential because Indonesia CPO has strong competitiveness and in a rising star position.The analysis result with gravity model showed the factors affecting Indonesian CPO export to nontraditional countries was exchange rate, Indonesia GDP, importers GDP, and economic distance. Government role is important to initiate a long term trade agreement which benefits both parties.

European integration opens wide opportunities for Ukraine to cooperate with developed European countries, strengthening its position in the international arena. Export potential is the potential ability of a country to export goods or services. Exports of goods and services to EU countries in 2020 were $ 21.9 billion (37.1% of total exports), including exports of goods – $ 18.6 billion, exports of services – $ 3.3 billion. Compared to 2019, exports of goods to EU countries de- creased by $ 2.1 billion (10.3%). The export structure is dominated by agriculture products, the food industry (35%), and the metallurgical complex (16.7%). The greatest exporters of Ukrainian goods were the following EU countries: Poland ($ 3.3 billion or 6.71% of total exports of goods), Germany ($ 2.1 billion or 4.27%), Italy ($ 1.9 billion or 3, 86%), the Netherlands ($ 1.8 billion or 3.66%), Hungary ($ 1.3 billion or 2.64%), Romania ($ 1.1 billion or 2.24%). The analysis of the export potential of Ukraine shows the raw material structure of exports. Integration into the EU market as a raw material supplement is dangerous for the country because it can consolidate technological dependence on developed countries. Increasing the share of goods with a high level of processing increase the stability of export income. Promising areas of exporting activity are science-intensive industries: electronics, production of automation, technical means for non-traditional types of energy, new types of materials, biotechnology, etc. To transition Ukraine to the exporting of knowledge-intensive innovative products and successfully enter world markets, the Export Strategy of Ukraine (Roadmap for Strategic Trade Development) has been developed, which identifies the following promising sectors: information and communication technologies, software development, creative services, tourism, maintenance and repair of aircraft, production of spare parts and components for the aerospace and aviation industries, mechanical engineering, food industry. Sectors are grouped into clusters. An individual sectoral strategy is developed for each sector. Key words: export, export potential, European integration, goods, competitive advantages, market, sector.

Abstract This article intends to outline the main features of a new export promotion regime that Argentina needs to allow the development of its natural gas unconventional resources through long-term export agreements. It describes the current scenario of Argentina’s gas market and the challenges that gas exports from Argentina have faced in recent years, while proposing possible improvements to the current legal regime to generate the conditions required to enable the development of new regional and international markets for its world-class unconventional resources.

<div>Increasing clove export market share in global markets has promising</div><div>potential. The aims of this study are to identify the market structure of clove exporting countries and to measure the level of competitiveness and competitive advantage possessed by each exporting country. This study used time series data of Indonesian, Madagascar, Singapore and Comoro clove exports since 2001-2019. The CR4 method is used to identify the market structure, Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) used to measure the level of export competitiveness comparatively and Export Competitiveness Index (ECI) used to identify the competitive advantage of each exporting country. The results of the study stated that the market structure formed leads to an oligopoly market with Indonesia and Madagascar as market leaders. Meanwhile, the level of export competitiveness and competitive advantage possessed by Indonesia tend to increase. To increase the share of Indonesian clove exports can be done by conducting dissemination to clove farmers about cultivation technology. So, the farmers can produce high quality clove.</div>

Purpose: The main objective is to get a comprehensive analysis of the potential for market expansion so that it can boost exports to new markets in addition to the traditional markets that are currently being carried out. Methodology: The analysis includes market analysis, product analysis, trade policy and other analyses related to the Surabaya City Export Expansion Policy Analysis. Quantitative analysis techniques use measurements of the Export Performance Index. Determination of priority commodities is done by calculating indicator index values, performance index values, and composite indices. Results: The export development of Surabaya City in 2014-2016 experienced a fluctuation, i.e., from the US $ 18.02 million in 2014, to the US $ 16.45 million US $ 2015 and the US $ 17.90 million in 2016. Implications: Economic growth in developed countries is strongly supported by export growth. They control the share of world exports. In line with the spirit to increase exports and support government programs, the Surabaya city government has placed exports as one of its economic growth locomotives. Thus, Export expansion policy is an option considering that Surabaya’s export growth has fluctuated in hopes of increasing public welfare.

The purpose of the article is to conduct a thorough analysis of the regions of the Middle East and North Africa that are potentially attractive for the export of dairy products, to highlight promising markets for the export of Ukrainian dairy products. Research methods. The study is based on a systematic approach to assessing the situation that has arisen in the global dairy market. Historical and analytical methods are used in the formation and analysis of analytical materials, as well as a comparative method for evaluating its results. The method of analysis highlighted the types of products imported to certain countries and the level of consumption of the products. Due to this, a general picture of the import and consumption of dairy products in certain countries was formulated. Research results. In the course of the research, potential countries for export of dairy products from the regions of the Middle East and North Africa were selected. The most promising product items for export and strategies for working with two types of buyers have been identified. Scientific novelty. A mechanism for selecting the export market among different countries has been developed. Recommendations for negotiations and business with representatives of the Middle East and North Africa region are developed. Practical significance. The recommendations published in this article are aimed to help to get acquainted with the markets selected for export, and consumers and their product selection criteria. The selection of countries can make it easier for dairy producers to choose an export market and a strategy to enter it. Figs.: 5. Refs.: 20.

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

As part of the Accelerated Shared Growth Initiative of South Africa (AsgiSA), the South African government is focusing on improving the country's export performance (Department of Trade and Industry, 2006a). One of the objectives of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) is to increase the level of South African exports through the development and implementation of strategies for targeted markets. The DTI commissioned a study to scientifically identify priority products and markets in order to justify its export promotion activities and to ensure that government resources are effectively allocated. Tills led to the development of the Decision Support Model (DSM) by Viviers and Pearson (2007) as an instrument to identify realistic export opportunities for South Africa. The Viviers and Pearson (2007) study adapted and refined the methodology of Cuyvers et al. (1995) to the South African circumstances and used a sequential filtering process to identify realistic product/market export combinations for South Africa. The outcome of the DSM for South Africa was 9690 SITC product/market opportunities in seventy-four countries, clustered in twelve geographic regions. One of these regions was the Middle East. The DTI indicated the need for a study on South Africa's export opportunities to the Middle East as a result of their prioritisation of regions for export promotion. This need is therefore the rationale of this study. The research objectives were to analyse the identified Middle East countries and determine the product with the most realistic export opportunities to two of the Middle East countries and lastly, to develop a market profile to assist the DTI in promoting the exports of this product to these countries. In this study, several methods of product and market selection were investigated in order to determine the most suitable method to identify the product/market opportunities from the DSM to the Middle East. The product selection method selected involved a three-phase filtering process to determine the product with the highest export potential to the Middle East. The analysis was based on a cluster-selection process. It was determined that fruit juice was the product with the highest export potential to the region. The market selection process used a composite market potential index to determine which country in the Middle East had the highest potential for exports of fruit juice from South Africa. The two countries in the Middle East with the highest potential to import fruit juice from South Africa were Oman and Qatar. A market profile for the export of fruit juice to Oman and Qatar was developed. The market profile provided an economic overview of the two markets, analysed the market potential of fruit juice and provided technical information regarding the requirements for the export of fruit juice by South Africa to Oman and Qatar. The results of this study firstly indicate to the DTI and exporters that South Africa should export fruit juice to Oman and Qatar and secondly presents a market profile with detailed information of the process to follow in exporting fruit juice to these countries.
Thesis (M.Com. (International Commerce))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

Mestrado em Economia Internacional e Estudos Europeus
As relações económicas entre a ASEAN e a UE foram recentemente impulsionadas pelo objetivo de analisar a possibilidade de uma zona de comércio livre entre as duas regiões. Neste contexto, e tendo em consideração a crescente influência dos países asiáticos na economia mundial, o presente estudo visa avaliar o desempenho das exportações dos países membros da ASEAN para a União Europeia durante o período 2007-2016. Depois de algumas reflexões sobre a integração económica da ASEAN e as suas relações com a União Europeia, a análise empírica baseia-se em três metodologias: (i) uma análise das vantagens comparativas reveladas, que procura captar a especialização das exportações da ASEAN para a UE; (ii) uma análise constant market share, que permite decompor o crescimento das exportações em várias componentes, incluindo um efeito relacionado com a competitividade; (iii) uma análise baseada na combinação de dois índices - complementaridade do comércio e orientação geográfica - que revela o potencial de exportação da ASEAN para o mercado europeu. Os resultados sugerem que as exportações da ASEAN são competitivas em diversos produtos identificados, tendo em muitos deles capacidade para aumentar as exportações para a UE. Apesar da conclusão de que a competitividade da ASEAN explica a maior parte do crescimento das suas exportações, ainda persiste alguma proteção comercial aplicada pelos destinos europeus, o que pode justificar a razão pela qual as exportações da ASEAN ainda não aproveitaram todo o seu potencial. Um acordo de comércio livre pode ser capaz de desbloquear grande parte do comércio ainda por explorar.
Economic relations between ASEAN and the EU were recently driven by the objective of looking into the possibility of a free trade area between the two regions. In this context and taking into consideration the growing influence of Asian countries in the world economy, the present study aims to assess the export performance of manufactured products from ASEAN members to the European Union during the period 2007-2016. Beyond some reflections about the economic integration of ASEAN and the relations with the European Union, the empirical analysis is based on three methodologies: (I) a revealed comparative advantage analysis, which seeks to capture the ASEAN exports specialization to the context of the European market; (ii) a constant market share analysis, which allows to decompose the export growth into several components including an effect related to competitiveness; (iii) an analysis based on the combination of two indexes - geographical orientation and trade complementary - which reveals the ASEAN level of export potential to the EU. According to these methods used, the results suggest that ASEAN exports are competitive in several products identified, and reflect that in many of them there is capacity to increase their exports to the European destinations. Despite the conclusion that the ASEAN competitiveness explains most of its exports' growth, there still persists some trade protection applied by the EU, which may block the full potential of ASEAN members exports. A free trade agreement between the two regions may be able to unlock much of the trade still "trapped".
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

European Union’s (EU) dependence on fossil fuel imports strongly affects its energy supply and economic and national stability. In order to reduce its dependence and maintain the leadership position in GHG emissions reductions and renewable energy consumption, EU has set ambitious targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 20% compared with 1990, raising the share of renewable energy to 20% and increasing the levels of biofuels in transport fuels to 10% by 2020. While some of the countries, due to their large renewable potential, have already reached set targets, some are still far behind. Biomass, with 69.8% share in gross inland consumption of renewables, has the greatest potential. Since some EU members have low availability of biomass, and are scarce in other renewable sources, they have become biomass importers. As some studies have shown, imports of biomass reduce cost of achieving targets for renewable electricity and increase electricity production from biomass. Wood pellets, as currently the most tradable solid biomass commodity, already reached significant shares in imports and consumption of biomass in some EU countries. The most of pellets were traditionally imported from Canada; however, last year US became the EU’s largest importing partner with 534,000 tons of industrial pellets exported mainly to Belgium and Netherlands. The EU’s increasing demand for wood pellets was a major driver for substantial increase in the wood pellet production capacity in US, with many plants being constructed for export to EU. This thesis evaluates the possibility of producing wood and switchgrass pellets in East Tennessee, assuming three feedstock scenarios, and their export to EU. Results from the base-case model showed that production costs of pellets were $155, $164 and $170 per ton, while price of pellets on the EU market will have to be $207, $216 and $222 per ton in the 100% mill residue, 40/60 blend and 100% switchgrass scenarios, respectively, for the project to breakeven. Sensitivity analysis showed a strong impact of feedstock price, moisture and exchange ratio on project’s return on investment.

The master thesis considers the problem of the effect of market potential solution to reduce dependence on the metallurgical industry crisis in the economy. The thesis has the experience of domestic and foreign researchers in determining the characteristics of the market potential, identified factors affecting the state of the market potential for the crisis, the theory of crises and economic cycles. To identify ways to accelerate out of the crisis, analyzes the steel industry in the world and our country in the last ten years. Based on the theoretical analysis and analysis of the metallurgical industry of Russia, recommendations for the growth of the market potential in today’s crisis were proposed.
В работе рассмотрено решение проблемы влияния рыночного потенциала на снижение зависимости металлургической отрасли от кризисных явлений в экономике. В диссертации изучен опыт отечественных и зарубежных исследователей в определении особенностей рыночного потенциала, выявлены факторы, влияющие на состояние рыночного потенциала в условиях кризисных явлений, теория кризисов и экономических циклов. Для определения путей ускорения выхода из кризиса проанализировано состояние черной металлургии в мире и нашей стране за последние десять лет. На основе проведенного теоретического анализа и анализа металлургического комплекса России были предложены рекомендации для роста рыночного потенциала в условиях современного кризиса.

碩士
國立交通大學
交通運輸研究所
86
"Rent a car" is another approach to own an automobile and keep the freedom to use it no matter for short periods or long terms. Renting a car can notonly reduce the maintenance cost of having it and release the pressure to park it when we do not drive it, but also provide the opportunity to drivera variety of cars. The industry of car rental has been operated in ourcountry for more than ten years, however, it is still not widely acceptedto rent a car for traveling in a short period or even in the long term. According the pass studies, the unexplored market of rental is partially resulted from people''s unfamiliarity with the industry. This research is undertaken to study thee merits and drawbacks for renting acar for different travel purposes, and try to explore the potential marketfor car rental through the Theory of Habitual Domains. A face-to-face surveyis conducted to collect the feeling and opinions of the people with or withoutexperience of renting a car. The "importance" and "satisfaction" to the concernedattributes about renting a car are then used to analyze the niches for market promotion.The study results show the model, type, age, and clearance of cars, the image of car rental, the complexity of insurance and contracting procedures, as well as the widespread of service points are determining factors to attract people to rent a car. The further analyses also find that recreation traveling is themost important market for car renting in our country and different promotion strategies should be employed for the people with and without experience of rentinga car separately. The findings of this study provide the valuable information for policy making and strategic planning to the industry of car rental.

The following report seeks to assess the attractiveness of the Latin American lubricants market in the context of a potential partnership with Latina1. Galp Energia, a Portuguese Oil and Gas company, presented the project to NOVA SBE’s Management Consulting Lab initiative, which, in turn, had allocated the project to a team of four students with complementary academic backgrounds. With Galp’s Exports Division support, the main goal was to assess the economic and financial viability of entering the Latin American market with a local partner. For that purpose a market assessment was conducted, followed by a financial analysis of the two-staged partnership and lastly, the team provided Galp with valuable recommendations on how to pursue the internationalization strategy and approach the Latin American partner.

The following report seeks to assess the attractiveness of the Latin American lubricants market in the context of a potential partnership with Latina1. Galp Energia, a Portuguese Oil and Gas company, presented the project to NOVA SBE’s Management Consulting Lab initiative, which, in turn, had allocated the project to a team of four students with complementary academic backgrounds. With Galp’s Exports Division support, the main goal was to assess the economic and financial viability of entering the Latin American market with a local partner. For that purpose a market assessment was conducted, followed by a financial analysis of the two-staged partnership and lastly, the team provided Galp with valuable recommendations on how to pursue the internationalization strategy and approach the Latin American partner.

Abstract Because of the long-standing Canada-United States lumber trade dispute and the current pressure on the world's forests as a renewable energy source, much attention has been directed toward the modelling of international trade in wood products. Two types of trade models are described in this book: one is rooted in economic theory and mathematical programming, and the other consists of two econometric/statistical models--a gravity model rooted in theory and an approach known as GVAR that relies on time series analyses. The purpose of the book is to provide the background theory behind models and enable readers to easily construct their own models to analyze policy questions, whether in forestry or another sector. Examples in the book illustrate how models can be used to say something about a variety of issues, including identification of the gains and losses to various players in the North American softwood lumber business, and the potential for redirecting sales of lumber to countries outside the United States. The discussion is expanded to include other products besides lumber, and used to examine, for example, the effects of log export restrictions by one naton on all other forestry jurisdictions, the impacts of climate policies as they relate to the global forest sector, and the impact of oil prices on forest product markets throughout the world.

AbstractThe Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region plays a vital role in shaping the global energy markets because of its substantial amount of hydrocarbons resources. Although the GCC has abundant hydrocarbon resources, countries in the region have also shown their commitment and intent to become the global leaders in alternate energy, especially, renewable energy through their “Visions and Laws”. Further, All the countries in the Middle East have also set targets for the deployment of renewable energy at the federal or local level.For several decades, there has been steady economic and population growth of the Middle East countries, with most of the region’s wealth and socio-economic development, tied to its substantial oil and gas resources. Renewable energy can provide an alternative to their energy landscape, which holds a vast potential to cut fuel costs, reduce GHG emissions.To promote renewable energy, in the last five years, renewable energy has gained a lot of interest in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Low tariffs bids for renewable energy generation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia since 2016 have made renewable energy, especially solar power competitive with conventional energy (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).With the push from the decision-makers to reduce the risk of dependence fossil fuels, the renewable energy plans can be implemented in the GCC. Decision-makers in the GCC have recognized the need for a plan for the post-oil era. This chapter will explore the GCC long term policies and government’s role in shaping the renewable energy market. Further, the chapter will also explore the challenges & opportunities related to the renewable energy sector in GCC (International Renewable Energy Agency. Renewable Energy Market Analysis-GCC 2019. s.l.: International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019).

Abstract Punzi and Werner offer an incisive analysis of the role of social entrepreneurs in the so-called ‘period revolution.’ The authors explore not only the market strategies and social media messaging of social enterprises, but also how other activists in the menstrual equity movement question or support their work. Building on interviews with 35 social entrepreneurs, communication with current and former Femcare employees, and participant observation of menstrual activists, this study provides a 360-degree view of the surprising number of social entrepreneurs who have entered the menstrual products space, their efforts to innovate and disrupt the industry, and the opportunities and potential pitfalls they face.

AbstractOver the last few decades, Europe has seen a rise in applications for “native trait” patents on conventionally bred plants. Based on expert interviews, participant observation, patent statistics and document analysis, this chapter discusses what constitutes the (potential) value of these patents for various stakeholders. Native trait patents are a legacy of biotech plant patents from the 1980s and 1990s but follow different material, legal and economic logics. Unlike GMO patents, it would be wrong to view them as tools with which to extract surplus value from farmers. Neither, however, are they simply a means to capture investment from stock markets. There is no single business model that could explain the rush of companies to apply for patents in conventional plant breeding; therefore, patents must be understood as complex value objects that fulfil different functions for different actors and that often defy their original purpose of stimulating and protecting innovation.

Through a series of government plans, the South African automotive industry has achieved undeniable success, especially in terms of its export orientation. The industry uses efficient technologies and is integrated into global markets. However, major structural weaknesses exist. Export growth has not been accompanied by increasing local content, investment has been modest and employment creation insignificant. Vehicle and component imports into the domestic market are high and the industry runs significant trade deficits. Most core technologies are imported, including advanced power trains and electronics. This chapter considers the structural impediments to the industry’s development, as well as issues related to ownership and power relations between the state and multinational firms. Analysing the potential for further localization and the deepening of the supply chain, the chapter considers global technology developments, domestic productive capabilities, and power dynamics in the global value chain (GVC). The chapter argues that state–business bargaining dynamics have negatively affected this potential. While efforts to deepen the supply chain would allow for more sustainable growth, the achievement of such goals is impossible without concerted commitment from all stakeholders.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the confectionery market in Ukraine and deter-mine the prospects for its development. The structure of the confectionery market and the dynamics of production of various types of confectionery in Ukraine are established. The activity of the lead-ers of the Ukrainian confectionery market is analyzed, as well as the main trends in the development of this market. The existing demand for confectionery products both in Ukraine and in other coun-tries was studied, which allowed to determine the prospects for its further growth. Problems and prospects of development of the confectionery market of Ukraine are presented. It is determined that the stable development of the confectionery industry for the country’s economy will simultane-ously stimulate the development and growth of the production in agriculture, transport and logistics, trade, increase employment, and significantly increase the country’s export potential.

Health exports have increased to 100 billion dollars per year and it has become an important item in service exports all over the world. Demographic structures are changing with the old population in developed countries, and health tourism among countries has increased. This chapter aims to study health tourism in European Union, aiming to create a single market with member countries and with free movement of people among member countries. EU policy permits member countries' citizens to get health service from any other member country. A literature review shows that the differences between member countries' national health systems is one of the main issues to be resolved and that the countries with old populations who need health care affect health tourism from developed countries with old population countries to countries with young population like Spain. Along with the legislation, ethical, social issues, and standard international rules accepted by all countries covering all aspects of health tourism must be set by international organisations like the WHO to avoid potential risks for the patients.

(in English): the chapter is dedicated to the problems of import substitution, that are most acute in the pharmaceutical industry, as shown by the Covid-19 pandemic. The influx of public investment in the health care system and the unfavorable epidemiological situation gave an additional impetus to the Russian pharmaceutical market. The growth of the domestic pharmaceutical market is mainly driven by the implemented Pharma-2030 strategy, the main task of which is to increase the export potential of Russian pharmaceuticals, as well as to stimulate consumer spending on healthcare.

Emerging information technologies provide a solid and promising platform to support economic development. In that respect, the information and communication technology sector has been one of Egypt's strongest economic sectors with increasing prospects for job creation, productivity, scalability, impact and growth. One of the subsets of ICT, the software industry, is gradually becoming more visible, stronger and mature in terms of output and impact both locally and beyond. Software is arguably the best entry platform for developing nations, like Egypt, into the global ICT production complex. Local companies and startups in the software development space have started their operations over the last decade trying to capture a segment of the regional and global market opportunities. This article assesses the developments in the software industry in Egypt and the potential role it can play as a contributor to economic development through the establishment of an export-oriented outsourcing software industry capitalizing on one of Egypt's primary resources, human capital.

Emerging information technologies provide a solid and promising platform to support economic development. In that respect, the information and communication technology sector has been one of Egypt's strongest economic sectors with increasing prospects for job creation, productivity, scalability, impact, and growth. One of the subsets of ICT, the software industry, is gradually becoming more visible, stronger, and mature in terms of output and impact both locally and beyond. Software is arguably the best entry platform for developing nations, like Egypt, into the global ICT production complex. Local companies and startups in the software development space have started their operations over the last decade trying to capture a segment of the regional and global market opportunities. This chapter assesses the developments in the software industry in Egypt and the potential role it can play as a contributor to economic development through the establishment of an export-oriented outsourcing software industry capitalizing on one of Egypt's primary resources, human capital.

In the conditions of continuing instability and tension in the world economy and the global agri-food market, interaction in the framework of interstate, integration, regional associations and the strengthening of ties come to the fore. The article analyzes and evaluates the agricultural market of the Eurasian Economic Union in terms of its export potential.

Information technology is one of the fastest growing service export industries in the world. According to information collected by LIAA (Information and Communications ..., 2018), in 2017, 40 % of Latvian information technology companies exported to the Baltic States. In 2017, the United States (further – US) was the ninth largest export partner and the 18 th largest import partner of Latvia. The US is the world’s largest software and information technology services provider, accounting for ¾ of the total global IT market. Latvian information technology companies have an interest in an information technology service exports to the US; however, currently IT companies mostly choose not to conduct market research and export strategy development. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate the export potential of Latvian information technology services and to determine the export promotion activities of Latvian information technology services to the US. So far, there are no analysis of the Latvian IT export promotion to US that would be based on company’s needs, experience and resources available. The results of the research concluded that the export tendencies of IT services are upward and the export balance of Latvian IT services with the US is positive.

The analysis of the development of the agrarian sector, dynamics and structure of exports and imports of food and the state of the food market in Kyrgyzstan is carried out. The assessment of the level of competitiveness of the industry and food security is presented. Factors and risks of increasing the competitiveness of the agricultural sector under conditions of integration are revealed. The factors of unjustified growth of import-privatizability of the domestic food market and a reduction in the volume of exports of agri-food products were revealed. It is determined that the primary development of small-peasant forms of entrepreneurial activity negatively affects the effective use of the economic potential, the dynamics and growth rates of production and, in general, the competitiveness of the industry. The directions of development of import substitution of food have been developed. Prospects and economic mechanisms for supporting and stimulating the development of the production of competitive products of the industry and developing the country's agro-export potential under conditions of integration are grounded. Measures are proposed for the development of agricultural cooperation and the formation of competitive forms of management that will facilitate the effective transformation of the country's agricultural sector within the framework of the Unified Energy System.

This paper examines creating a value chain in export honey from the Kyrgyz Republic. The annual production is 12,000 tons, 500 tons are exported. The Supply Chain Operation Reference (SCOR model) at three stages of optimization of honey production has been adapted. The following research methods were used: desk study, survey of producers and consumers, interviews with relevant organizations, personal observations retailers. At the initial stage of optimization, recommended to maintain planning of the number of bee colonies. How to effectively use natural resources for bee colonies - finding useful flora (a flowering mass of plants to collect nectar) and finding areas with the best climate (temperature, humidity, sunshine, air movement) are the objectives of action plan for interim stage. The natural mountain landscape, the sun, air, water give honey special qualities, therefore, at the final stage of market promotion, honey must acquire potential status as a unique product. For honey producers there are two optimal options for export. The first is the packaging of honey in a container of 0.1–0.2 l., and positioning it as an expensive premium product. High marketing costs are offset by high added value in the supply chain. The second is the delivery of honey in large containers of 20–30 l., for further packaging, already in the territory of the buyer. An attractive choice for honey producers with guaranteed product sales and high profitability of sales. Research results increase honey production up to 30% and export volume up to 7%.

The economic behaviour, needs and preferences of people vary in the individual phases of their lives. The silver economy market is made up of consumers, employees or employers aged 50+. The share of this population is an important target group for entrepreneurs, brings a wide range of new products and services to businesses and has a significant role for the national economy as there is a change in the understanding of the ageing process from a threat towards economic opportunities. Although the ageing workforce and seniors in the Slovak Republic do not represent a strong demand for market goods yet, their economic potential may not be negligible. The rapid ageing of the Slovak population represents, among other things, an economic potential that can be exploited in favour of innovation and improvement. Despite not a high level of pensions, seniors have considerable purchasing power, which will generate an increasing demand for specific goods and services, which is an opportunity for the labour market. In this paper we try to describe selected areas in which the silver economy and the ageing population itself should be viewed as a challenge to new business opportunities. In particular, these include health service and health care, spa care, the pharmaceutical industry, tourism, the financial sector and, last but not least, construction industry. The silver economy will change the rules of market forces in existing sectors and create a wholly new industry at the intersection of demographic and technological changes with a high export potential.

Central Asian Republics contain a grand potential in itself through their rich natural resources and strategic locations on the Silk Road between east and west. However, international production and trade share of Turkic Republics is very low. Natural resources are among the most important elements for economic structure. Natural resources that hold by Turkic Republics have had an increasing importance in the world energy market since the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Many international firms have focused on this district in order to have a say in the production and distribution of energy resources. Within this period, the starting up of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipe Line and studies on the Nabucco Project have contributed to the economies and stability of Turkic Republics. Important gas and petroleum exporting countries such as Kazakhistan, Azerbaijan have gotten high rates of growth depend especially on the natural resources export. However, gains provided by natural resources can create negative effects on income distribution of countries despite their positive effects on economic growth. Economic structure depend natural resources should be diversified for Turkic Republics in order to invest earnings come from natural resources efficiently. This is also very important for the intraregional trade and investment. Thus, logistic structure that could transport natural resources to other markets becomes very important. This study focuses on the positions of energy resources of Kazakhistan, Azerbaijan, Kirghizstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as Turkic Republics in the world energy market and their effects on the economies of these countries.

Kazakhstan is in a distinctive position among other Central Asian Republics due to its rich economic resources. It has the highest per capita GDP. Turkey is the first country to recognize the independence of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is the major strategic partner of Turkey in Central Asia. Due to its active and constructive approach, its importance has been increasing in Turkey’s foreign policy. Turkey, having qualified human resources, technology know-how, and international experience, is capable of supporting Central Asian countries in various areas. When their economy, production structure, export and import demands are compared withTurkey, we may see a great collaboration opportunities to complement each other. Due to the common history, ethnics, and culture, Turkey has become the strategic partner for Kazakhstan. Turkeyis also an important market for Kazakhstan as it has a continously developing industry, increasing consumer expenses, and growing export potential.

It is propounded that there are two motivations behind foreign direct investments (FDI). One of them is to invest in foreign countries because of trade barrier to export. In this case foreign investors operate in import substitution industries (ISI). The second fact to invest in another country away from homeland is to get benefit from cost advantages such as cheap labor and inputs, positioning closed to developed countries. With this aspect foreign investors operate in export oriented sectors (EOS). The economic consequences were discussed lighting on study’s aim examining the FDI to Transitions Countries whether are ISI or EOS. The foreign direct investments to Transitions Countries were investigated by panel data analysis. First and second generation unit root tests and cross section dependency tests were applied. Long and short term regressions were realized. The data set were obtained from Word Bank Data Base and annually data were collected between 1993 and 2012. Theoretically and statistically expected coefficients and coefficient’s sign for explanatory variables have been obtained. It is as a result observed that the countries have higher internal market potential to take foreign direct investments to import substitution industries. The countries close to developed economies have been drawing foreign direct investments to export oriented sectors.

The growing demand for natural gas leads to an increasing LNG market. The amount of traded LNG has more than doubled during the last decade. This trend is intensified by the rising number of liquefaction plants (export terminals) and regasification plants (import terminals). At the end of the year 2013 there were 86 liquefaction plants in 17 exporting countries and 104 import terminals in 29 importing countries. Also the number of floating regasification plants is growing. It is expected that the LNG market will grow with 7 % per year until 2020. In comparison, the market for gaseous natural gas only will increase with approxematly 1.8 % per year. The difference could be led back to the several advantages, when using LNG. Thus LNG enables the extraction of natural gas in offsite areas and leads to a flexible gas market. Especially with improving the efficiency of each part of the LNG chain — liquefaction, transportation, storage and regasification — and its fallen prices the LNG market will continue to grow. For the regasification of LNG different processes have been used, while mainly the vaporization via direct or indirect heating is applied. Due to their location at the coast of the importing country, seawater, air or the combustion gases coming from natural gas are used as thermal energy. A further possibility is the combination of regasification of LNG with generating electricity. Additionally, the regasification of LNG could be integrated into chemical processes (oil refinery and petrochemical plants), where low temperature refrigeration is required. The authors have already reported a concept for the integration of the regasification of LNG into an air separation and liquefactions process, i.e. into a cryogenic processes. In previous publications, an evaluation of the conventional air separation unit in combination with the LNG regasification has been reported. It was emphasized that the integration of LNG leads to a lower power consumption for the entire system. This paper deals with an improved concept for integrating the regasification of LNG into an air separation process. Due to structural changes, comparing the first design and the new design, the system can be further improved from the thermodynamic point of view. The aim of this paper is to discover the potential for improvement by the parametric study. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis (energetic and exergetic) are reported as well as the results obtained from the advanced exergetic analysis. Some options for new designs of this system are be developed.

Abstract Combined Cycle Gas Turbines, CCGTs, are often considered as the bridging technology to a decarbonized energy system thanks to their high exploitation rate of the fuel energetic potential. At present time in most European countries, however, revenues from the electricity market on their own are insufficient to operate existing CCGTs profitably, also discouraging new investments and compromising the future of the technology. In addition to their high efficiency, CCGTs offer ancillary services in support of the operation of the grid such as spinning reserve and frequency control, thus any potential risk of plant decommissioning or reduced investments could translate into a risk for the well-functioning of the network. To ensure the reliability of the electricity system in a transition towards a higher share of renewables, the economic sustainability of CCGTs must be preserved, for which it becomes relevant to monetize properly the ancillary services provided. In this paper, an accurate statistical analysis was performed on the day-ahead, intra-day, ancillary service, and balancing markets for the whole Italian power-oriented CCGT fleet. The profitability of 45 real production units, spread among 6 market zones, was assessed on an hourly basis considering local temperature, specific plant layouts, and off-design performance. The assessment revealed that net income from the ancillary service market doubled, on average, the one from the day-ahead energy market. It was observed that to be competitive in the ancillary services market CCGTs are required to be more flexible in terms of ramp rates, minimum environmental loads, and partial load efficiencies. This paper explores how integrating a Heat Pump and a Thermal Energy Storage within a CCGT could allow improving its competitiveness in the ancillary services market, and thus its profitability, by means of implementing a model of optimal dispatch operating on the ancillary services market.

Nigeria has sought to diversify its economy away from dependence on oil as a major source of government revenue through agricultural commercialisation. Agriculture has been a priority sector because it has very high growth potential and the greatest potential for employment and export revenue. The cocoa and rice value chains are central to the government’s engagement with agriculture to achieve these objectives. This paper sets out to investigate the underlying political economy dynamics of the commercialisation of the cocoa and rice value chains in Nigeria in terms of smallholder farm households’ shift from semi-subsistence agriculture to production primarily for market, and predominantly commercial medium- and large-scale farm enterprises complementing or replacing smallholder farm households.

Youth unemployment is a major issue in many developing countries, particularly in locations not well connected with large urban markets. A limited number of available job opportunities in urban centres may reduce the benefit of policies that encourage rural–urban migration. In this project, we investigated the feasibility of ‘virtual migration’, by training rural youth in Bangladesh to become online freelancers, enabling them to export their labour services to a global online marketplace. We did this by setting up a ‘freelancing incubator’, which provided the necessary workspace and infrastructure – specifically, high-speed internet connectivity and computers. Close mentoring was also provided to participants to assist in navigating the competitive online marketplace. We show the exciting potential of online work for improving the incomes of poor youth in developing countries. We also highlight the constraints to this type of work: financing constraints for the high training cost, access to the necessary work infrastructure, and soft skills requirements to succeed in the market. We also shed light on some promising possibilities for innovative financial contracts and for ‘freelancing incubators’ or ‘virtual exporting companies’ to assist students in their sourcing of work and skills development.

The BeefLedger Export Smart Contracts project is a collaborative research study between BeefLedger Ltd and QUT co-funded by the Food Agility CRC. This project exists to deliver economic value to those involved in the production, export and consumption of Australian beef to China through: (1) reduced information asymmetry; (2) streamlined compliance processes, and; (3) developing and accessing new data-driven value drivers, through the deployment of decentralised ledger technologies and associated governance systems. This report presents early insights from a survey deployed to Chinese consumers in Nov/Dec 2019 exploring attitudes and preferences about blockchain-credentialed beef exports to China. Our results show that most local and foreign consumers were willing to pay more than the reference price for a BeefLedger branded Australian cut and packed Sirloin steak at the same weight. Although considered superior over Chinese processed Australian beef products, the Chinese market were sceptical that the beef they buy was really from Australia, expressing low trust in Australian label and traceability information. Despite lower trust, most survey respondents were willing to pay more for traceability supported Australian beef, potentially because including this information provided an additional sense of safety. Therefore, traceability information should be provided to consumers, as it can add a competitive advantage over products without traceability.

Housing issues usually play a major role in urban studies, but are often overlooked as a factor in rural development. This policy brief explores aspects of the dynamics of the ‘frozen’ rural housing market in the Nordic Region, with a specific focus on the role of financing, the part played by municipalities and the potential benefits of a larger rental market.Housing is generally seen as a human right, a consumable that serves as the framework for our lives. However, at the same time, real estate is a financial commodity on the market. In many rural areas, the market value of houses is low – often considerably below the cost of construction. In consequence, it is very difficult to obtain loans to build or buy. This ‘freezes’ the market and has a strong impact on rural development overall, in effect acting as a boost to the trend towards urbanisation and the depopulation of rural areas. We will explore ways to counteract this dynamic.

The National Research Foundation (NRF) requested the Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), on behalf of South African Radio Astronomy Observatory (SARAO) and the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), to undertake an independent and objective evaluation of potential alternative telecommunication technologies for the areas of the Karoo Central Astronomy Advantage Areas (KCAAA). The study encompasses regulatory, public sphere, and technical dimensions to explore options for maintaining the functionality of the telescope while, at the same time, delivering appropriate connectivity solutions for local communities.The objectives of this study are as follows: 1) Assess the technologies currently being, or planning to be, deployed through existing alternative communications programs managed by SARAO, including whether these technologies are comparable with market available technologies that could feasibly be deployed in the KCAAA; and 2) Assessment of current and future telecommunication technologies that may act as suitable replacement and/or improvement (functional and feasible) for existing detrimental technologies, utilised in the KCAAA. This report provides a critical background into the relationship between the SKA and local communities as it relates to ICTs in the area. Based on this understanding, potential technology solutions are proposed to ensure residents of the KCAAA are still afforded valuable access to information and communication technologies (ICTs) within the parameters of affordability, desirability and feasibility.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.