Academic literature on the topic 'Export demand potential'

The Asian countries are the major destinations for the Indian dairy exports. The buoyancy in import demand of dairy products in Asian countries due to growing size of their markets resulting from population growth and changing food preferences, offers opportunities for Indian dairy industry to increase their exports. This paper examines export trends of India's dairy products in Asian markets, analyzes the import demand and relative price elasticity of the Indian dairy exports and presents short-term export forecast in select Asian destinations. The analysis is based on HS 4- and 8-digit level data of the India's export to 40 Asian countries during 1991-2004. The results indicate that although presently India is a minor player in Asian markets and exports are moderately to highly instable in most of the destinations, the potential exports can increase substantially.

The study focuses on Sri Lankan virgin coconut oil industry because of it is one of the upcoming export products and also its position as one of the key player in the global market. Sri Lankan coconut industry is one of the major foreign exchange and employment generation source and element of the Sri Lankan nation. The study attempted to unearth the determinants of export competitiveness of virgin coconut oil industry in Sri Lanka by drawing attention on Porter’s theory of the competitive advantage of nations. The target population of the study consisted with individual firms which are engaging in virgin coconut oil export in Sri Lanka is two hundred and nineteen. The study used a likert scale to measure the chosen variables. Based on the Pearson Correlation analysis researcher can say that there is significance strong positive relationship between Availability of Raw materials, Quality of demand and Market share of export with the Export Competitiveness. According to regression analysis researcher can say that availability of Raw materials, Local market, Quality of demand and Market share of export has significance positive affect on Advantage of Export Competitiveness.

Abstract Background: The accession of Poland to the European Union in 2004 facilitated increased exports of food products. It revealed a significant competitive advantage of Polish foreign trade in agri-food products compared to the countries of the ≫old EU≪. After nearly 10 years of Polish membership in the EU, the food sector has still a considerable potential, fostering a further increase in exports. Objectives: The purpose of the paper was an attempt to establish the current determinants for the possibility to increase the exports of the Polish food sector and to identify potential opportunities and potential threats in the future. It was also decided to give an answer to the question whether any of the group factors has a greater impact on the development of exports than the other, and which issues play only a minor role in the development of international exchange. Method: The analysis used involved the review of the relevant literature and forming a group of experts to specify the key factors of success in the food sector export. Basing on the experts research the STEEPVL analysis was carried out. Results: It turned out that apart from a number of organizational, financial and marketing factors the most important are: the level of the IT infrastructure and the fluctuation of the demand on the international markets for the goods offered by the sector. Conclusion: Therefore, the focus on the new distribution channels, integrated company management IT systems and changes in the demand on the market is the key challenge for securing the current potential and for the further development of the sector.

This paper examines the effects of exports on employment in China, Indonesia, Japan, and Korea, using the World Input-Output Database for the period from 1995 to 2009. One of the major findings is that, although more than 80 percent of exports in the four study countries are from manufacturing industries, a significant number of workers in non-manufacturing industries depend upon manufacturing exports through vertical inter-industry linkages. An implication is that even in cases where an industry is not particularly export-oriented through its reliance on the export of final goods, the industry may still be subject to potential effects—positive or negative—linked to changes in export demand.

Abstract. Under conditions of persistent trade balance deficit, there activates a search for ways of export increase and, consequently, of currency incomes of Ukraine. The goal of this article is to evaluate the state of Ukraine’s export, its dynamics, development of extended classification of the factors influencing the formation of export incomes, detecting the problems in this sphere, development of recommendations concerning the growth of export and increase in currency incomes of Ukraine. The methods of research applied are analysis and synthesis, system approach, comparison, generalization, scientific abstracting, and statistical method. This work contains a substantial analysis of the current state and dynamics of foreign trade of Ukraine in general and its exports in particular. There has been developed an extended classification of factors influencing the formation of export incomes, sum total of which falls into two groups: the factors determining the quantity of exported goods, and the factors determining their prices. The first group includes the following: availability of export potential, export potential realization, state of the market regarding consumers. The second group comprises the following: production costs level, existence of trade obstacles, currency exchange rate. The influence of all mentioned factors on Ukraine’s export has been analyzed. There have been disclosed the main problems in this sphere, such as imperfect export structure, high expenditure level and the share of import in export, unfavorable market environment for development of export-oriented enterprises. There have been given recommendations concerning an increase in export and currency incomes of Ukraine, including efficient utilizing of both home and foreign resources, optimizing export structure, creating a favorable market environment, taking into consideration elasticity of demand on national exported goods and elasticity of supply from foreign countries to gain competitive advantage, introduction of new technologies, production modernizing, utilizing the advantages of economic integration, and ensuring devaluation effect. Keywords: export incomes, export, import, export potential, elasticity of national export’s demand and supply, trade barriers, currency incomes, currency exchange rate. JEL Classification F19, F31, F49 Formulas: 0; fig.: 3; tabl.: 0; bibl.: 15.

Despite the surging demand for imports in South America in recent years, South Africa’s exports to the region have shown relatively low growth. A contributing factor is the prevalence of trade barriers between South Africa and various South American countries. The aim of this study is, firstly, to measure the trade barriers to South Africa’s exports to South America and, secondly, to identify high-potential export opportunities in the form of product-country combinations that can best surmount such barriers. The investigation, which uses a reconstructed Decision Support Model (DSM), reveals that Brazil, Argentina and Chile offer the greatest potential as export markets (in US$ terms) for South Africa, while the most promising product categories are transport-related goods, minerals, vegetables and chemicals. The results of this study should be a useful guide to South Africans planning export initiatives in South America.

The relevance of the article is due to the importance of the development of export of high-processing industries. Objective: to develop methodological support for assessing the neo-industrial export specialization of regions and its determining factors. The research methods included identifying potential assessment parameters and testing their applicability based on the analysis of economic development statistics of the region selected as an example. The proposed methodological support for the assessment of neo-industrial export specialization includes its integral assessment, assessment of goods and services, assessment of the contribution of the high-tech component to the change in exports, ranking of regions by absolute values of high-tech exports. The method of assessing the factors of neo-industrial export specialization involves the assessment of indicators that identify these factors of exo-and endogenous order – the development of manufacturing production, innovation potential, transport potential, the development of the export support system, and the international demand for the region's products. The practical significance of the proposed methodological support lies in the fact that it makes it possible to analyze the neo-industrial export specialization of Russian regions and the factors of its development, and to identify and analyze possible directions of development in this area.

International trade is crucial for Bosnia and Herzegovinas (B&H) economic prosperity. In this study guidance to B&H exporters is provided by identifying potential markets and products to focus on when designing future trade strategies. To this end trends in the world trade and trade patterns are examined using various approaches.First approach to identify the potential markets for the B&H exports called for identifying the countries with highest general demand for Bosnia and Herzegovinas current export products. The products Bosnia and Herzegovina exports most along with the countries that demand these products the most in the world are identified. The second approach for identifying the potential export markets for B&H products examine the import volumes of other countries in the world. Still a more fruitful approach for the B&H exporters, at least in the short term, is to target the markets with the fastest growth of import volumes (the third approach). In the fourth approach, untapped trade and highly untapped trade countries that should be targeted by B&H exporters are presented. The fifth approach for identifying the potential export markets for B&H products is based on examining the products whose imports increased fastest in recent years and the countries that imported these products most.The products/product groups that have the highest potential for B&H export success are also identified. First, most imported products as well as the products/product groups whose exports increased the fastest in recent years are examined. Second, the import volumes ten countries with the highest total imports are examined on a product basis to identify the products they import most as well as the products with the highest growth rate of imports. Third, product categories with untapped trade potential and highly untapped trade potential along with their respective markets are presented.Long term sustainable success in the ever changing global economy requires a close and continuous scanning of the trends in the environment. The analysis approaches described above provide B&H exporters a starting point in evaluating their product and market selection strategies and designing new ones for the future.

This article examines sake consumption patterns in Hong Kong and reports on a study that seeks to determine if the market can be grown. Hong Kong is one of the major export markets for sake, driven largely by the popularity of Japanese restaurants. The Japanese Export and Trade Organizations (JETRO) is looking at ways to expand consumption as a means of overcoming the decline in sake sales in Japan. This study presents a cautionary tale of market research, for on the surface the study reveals the market could grow by at least 25%, and more importantly, the current price point is below what consumers are willing to pay. However, closer examination of the results suggests a much smaller growth potential for most of the people who consume sake do so once a month or less and usually in a restaurant setting. Increasing sales will require a change in overall dining and drinking behavior patterns, which will be difficult to achieve.

The Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) works cooperatively with its seafood industry to develop foreign demand for Norwegian seafood through generic promotion and advertising. The generic promotion activities are financed through fees levied on all Norwegian seafood exports. Using an econometric simulation approach, the study addresses two key questions regarding the NSC generic seafood export promotion programs over time: (1) What have been the effects of those programs on the Norwegian seafood export volume, price, and revenue in the aggregate? (2) Have Norwegian seafood producers, exporters, and other stakeholders benefitted from the export-levy-funded generic export promotion programs? Examining potential scenarios for a likely range of the price responsiveness of the Norwegian seafood export supply, the study finds that NSC promotion added about 12% to the aggregate export value of Norwegian seafood between 2003 and 2017 resulting from an addition to the export price and volume of 10% and 4%, respectively. About 17% of stakeholder profits over that period was due to the promotion programs resulting in an industry profit benefit to cost ratio of about 12 to 13 to one.

The object of this research was to develop an international market screening methodology which selects highly attractive markets, allowing for the ranges in diversity amongst organisations, countries and products. Conventional business thought is that, every two to five years, dynamic organisations which conduct business internationally should decide which additional foreign market or markets to next enter. If they are internationally inexperienced, this will be their first market; if they are experienced, it might be, say, their 100th market. How should each organisation select their next international market? One previous attempt has been made to quantitatively test which decision variables, and what weights, should be used when choosing between the 230 countries of the world. The literature indicate that a well-informed selection decision could consider over 150 variables that measure aspects of each foreign market's economic, political, legal, cultural, technical and physical environments. Additionally, attributes of the organisation have not been considered when selecting the most attractive short-list of markets. The findings presented in the dissertation are that 30 criteria accounted for 95 per cent of variance at cross-classification rates of 95 per cent. The weights of each variable, and the markets selected statistically as being the most attractive, were found to vary with the capabilities, goals and values of the organisation. This frequently means that different countries will be best for different organisations selling the same product. A

This book develops the theme of teaching Italian abroad, starting from the awareness of the motivations for foreign students to study the Italian language and the different methodological procedures in order to teach it.For this purpose, the book focuses on the problems concerning the training of teachers of Italian to foreigners and on the many aspects of teaching Italian in order to propose both a methodological reflection on the edulinguistic project and educational solutions aimed at improving the quality of the students’ learning.Part 1The first part focuses on edulinguistic teaching vision for the learning of the Italian language as a foreign language based upon the principles of the Humanistic Approach.1. Teaching Italian Language Abroad: Institutional Language Policy and StrategiesThis chapter focuses on the situation of Italian foreign language teaching in the world. It also describes the linguistic policy for the promotion of Italian languages abroad adopted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the results obtained as the number of students involved in the different geographic areas.2. Teaching Trainer Courses as a Key Factor to Improve the Quality of Teaching Italian AbroadIn this chapter teaching trainer courses for Italian language teachers are considered as a part of a strategy to increase the students’ motivations and the learning process.3. Students as a Customer vs Students as a PersonLinguistic education and the Humanistic Approach aim to develop the students’ potential and create an autonomous language personality. Therefore, in this chapter, we outline a teaching perspective that considers the student as a person at the centre of teaching and learning Italian process.Part 2In the second part teaching methodologies to improve the quality of teaching and learning Italian language to foreigners are described.4. Effective Cooperative Learning Strategies to Teach Italian as a Foreign LanguageExamples of cooperative learning are given to illustrate how the following teaching methodology is possible in teaching Italian language even if it demands strong research and clear guidance for educators.5. How to Teach Italian Grammar to ForeignersThis chapter examines the existing research about using a deductive form of teaching grammar versus using an inductive form of teaching it.6. Teaching Italian Through Literature, Movies and CartoonsIn this chapter, different media and sources to teach Italian are examined. Using both classic and digital tools, students can explore the Italian language and culture from different points of view, developing a strategy to revisit thinking and to collaborate with others during the reading of classic texts or reading a cartoon.7. Humanistic Testing and Assessment for Italian as a Foreign LanguageFrom a Humanistic point of view, in this chapter, testing and assessment are considered as potential and relevant instruments to measure the progress and performance of individual students of Italian language.8. How to Plan and Use an Environment to Teach Italian to ForeignersThis chapter focuses on learning space to teach Italian to foreigners. The main aim is to provide practical advice and support to the teachers of Italian language schools that are going to explore how to develop and adapt learning spaces to the teaching activities and the students’ needs.

Mozambique is among the world’s least complex economies. By systematically accounting for both supply- and demand-side factors, we identify new products and sectors that can help to diversify and upgrade its economy. In a supply-side analysis, we use network methods from the literature on economic complexity to identify a set of target products that are complex, require productive capabilities useful in the export of other products, and are close to Mozambique’s existing productive structure. In a demand-side analysis, we use gravity models to predict the export potential of target products and markets given product-specific trade resistance and geographically dispersed demand. The broad sectoral focus of Mozambique’s industrial policy is largely consistent with structural transformation and export promotion. The current prioritization of agriculture, agro-industry, and metals is especially important, while there are unexploited opportunities in machinery, vehicles, and transport equipment. We find some potential for Mozambique to export target products to neighbouring countries.

This book provides a theoretical and empirical examination of constituency service in developing countries. The predominant view of distributive politics in “patronage democracies” emphasizes the partisan targeting of pork and clientelism. In contrast, this book demonstrates that high-level legislators in India and other contexts often provide direct, nonpartisan assistance to individual constituents. Under what conditions do they provide constituency service, rather than engage in partisan bias? The book shows that the uneven character of access to services at the local level—often because of biased allocation on the part of local intermediaries—generates demand for help from higher-level officials, and also creates incentives for those politicians to bypass intermediaries by providing direct assistance. It draws on elite and citizen surveys, interviews, qualitative shadowing, and experiments to explore the dynamics of both the demand for constituency service and its supply. The book’s findings highlight the potential for an underappreciated form of democratic accountability, one that is however rooted in the character of patronage-based politics.

Anaesthesia, being a relatively young medical specialty, has undergone a process of metamorphosis in the last 60 years. Modern principles of pathophysiology, technical developments, and new pharmacological principles have enhanced the potential of anaesthesia in the operating room, causing several subspecialties to develop. These subspecialties have enabled anaesthesiologists to better serve groups of patients with particular challenges and specific demands. The competences of anaesthesiologists in the pathophysiology of pain, pharmacology, and regional anaesthesia techniques enabled them to take the lead in the development of pain clinics, especially serving the increasing population of patients with chronic pain syndromes, often in close collaboration with experts from other disciplines. A similar development occurred in critical care medicine based on the expertise of anaesthesiologists in ventilatory and circulatory management and also in emergency medicine. With their overview of anaesthesia, intensive care medicine, and emergency medicine, anaesthesiologists are now in a position to lead in the whole perioperative process, not only in the medical management of individual patients but also in the logistic and organizational aspects of care. With further developments in information technology, in telemedicine, and rapid changes in society, with the increased demand of care in times of limited financial resources, a strong appeal will be made to anaesthesiologists to show leadership and cross boundaries. An increased focus on teamwork with surgeons, non-medical professionals, but also with managers and insurance companies in healthcare may open new horizons for the specialty of anaesthesiology and perioperative medicine.

Bioarchaeology of Frontiers and Borderlands presents a series of cases addressing how living on or interacting with the frontier can affect health and socioeconomic status. The goal is to explore how people in the past might have maintained, created, or manipulated their identity, while living in a place of liminality, stuck in between worlds. The zone of “in-betweenness,” of demarcation between two or more spheres of influence, is a very dynamic and potentially violent place. This book aims to explore how different groups stuck in these zones were affected, how they interacted with the different worlds, and how they lived their lives on the “edge.” The cases presented address questions of how living on the frontier might have affected the health and disease of these groups, how conflict and violence might have been expressed, and how social inequalities might have been manifested. This volume also aims to emphasize the ways that frontiers and borderlands are liminal zones that demand a reconceptualization of many of our most deeply held assumptions about the relationships between people, place, identity, and culture.

Increasing populations, climate change, and industrialization are challenging states’ ability to meet domestic demands for scarce freshwater resources. In fact, world leaders and international organizations are warning of the increasing potential for interstate conflict and tension over transboundary rivers. Relying on qualitative and quantitative analysis, experts have analyzed means by which states can peacefully manage their transboundary basins. Despite substantial improvements in our understanding of some of the factors influencing riparian conflicts along with the forces leading to treaty formation, treaty design, and treaty effectiveness, several controversies remain, including the influence of the balance of power within the basin, the role of water shortages, and the effectiveness of treaties in managing transboundary water disputes. In addition, there are a number of understudied topics that require future research. These include the influence of climate change and increasing abstraction of groundwater resources on the management of transboundary water resources.

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) represent both an increasingly important—and potentially dominant—category of alternative investor, and a novel form for governments to project their interests both at home and abroad. As such, they represent both economic actors and embody power vested in the financial and diplomatic resources they can leverage. Although at times they have acted in concert with other alternative investors, their intergenerational savings function should, in theory at least, promote more long-termist thinking. However, they may be impelled toward greater short termism in response to popular pressures, demands from predatory elites and/or unforeseen external shocks. Of all the categories of alternative investment, SWFs perhaps embody the most contradictory pressures, making for diverse and complex outcomes. The aim of this volume is to consolidate the present state of the art, and advance the field through new applied, conceptual and theoretical insights. The volume is ordered into chapters that explore thematic issues and country studies, although all contributions represent fresh work, incorporating novel insights into the most recent developments in the SWF ecosystem.

One cubic mile of oil (CMO) corresponds very closely to the world's current total annual consumption of crude oil. The world's total annual energy consumption - from all energy sources- is currently 3.0 CMO. By the middle of this century the world will need between 6 and 9 CMO of energy per year to provide for its citizens. Adequate energy is needed remove the scourge of poverty and provide food, clothing, and shelter for the people around the world, and more will be needed for measures to mitigate the potential effects of climate change such as building dikes and desalinating water. A Cubic Mile of Oil describes the various energy sources and how we use them, projects their future contributions, and delineates what it would take to develop them to annually produce a CMO from each of them. The requirement for additional energy in the future is so daunting that we will need to use all resources. We also examine how improved efficiency and conservation measures can reduce future demand substantially, and help distinguish approaches that make a significant impact as opposed to merely making us feel good. Use of CMO eliminates a multitude of units like tons of coal, gallons of oil, and cubic feet of gas; obviates the need for mind-numbing multipliers such as billions, trillions, and quadrillions; and replaces them with an easy-to-understand volumetric unit. It evokes a visceral response and allows experts, policy makers and the general public alike to form a mental picture of the magnitude of the challenge we face. In the absence of an appreciation of the scale of the problem, we risk squandering efforts and resources in pursuing options that will not meet tomorrow's global energy needs. We must make critical choices, and a common understandable language is essential for a sustained meaningful dialog.

Wildlife trafficking threatens the existence of many plant and animal species and accelerates the destruction of wildlife, forests, and other natural resources. It contributes to environmental degradation, destroys unique natural habitats, and deprives many countries and their populations of scarce renewable resources. The more endangered a species becomes, the greater is the commercial value that is put on the remaining specimen, thereby increasing the incentive for further illegal activities. Preventing and supressing the illegal trade in wildlife, animal parts, and plants is presently not a priority in many countries. Despite the actual and potential scale and consequences, wildlife trafficking often remains overlooked and poorly understood. Wildlife and biodiversity related policies, laws, and their enforcement have, for the most part, not kept up with the changing levels and patterns of wildlife trafficking. Poorly developed legal frameworks, weak law enforcement, prosecutorial, and judicial practices have resulted in valuable wildlife and plant resources becoming threatened. The high demand for wildlife, animal parts, plants, and plant material around the world has resulted in criminal activities on a large scale. Considerably cheaper than legally sourced material, the illegal trade in fauna and flora offers opportunities to reap significant profits. Gaps in domestic and international control regimes, difficulties in identifying illegal commodities and secondary products, along with intricate trafficking routes make it difficult to effectively curtail the trade. Although several international and non-governmental organisations have launched initiatives aimed at bringing international attention to the problem of wildlife trafficking, political commitment and operational capacity to tackle this phenomenon are not commensurate to the scale of the problem. There is, to date, no universal framework to prevent and suppress this crime type and there is a lack of critical and credible expertise and scholarship on this phenomenon. As part of their joint teaching programme on transnational organised crime, the University of Queensland, the University of Vienna, and the University of Zurich examined the topic of wildlife trafficking in a year-long research course in 20182019. Students from the three universities researched selected topics and presented their findings in academic papers, some of which have been compiled in this volume. The chapters included in this v edited book address causes, characteristics, and actors of wildlife trafficking, analyse detection methods, and explore different international and national legal frameworks.

The integration of the world economy and the internationalization of companies have resulted in consumers' demand for high quality goods. Standards have emerged as a way of reducing the information asymmetries that consumers face when purchasing a product, and have gained importance in the processed food industry as they allow them to assess the quality of goods and may influence the export performance of certified firms (An & Maskus, 2009). Certifications may act as promoters of international trade, but they can also constitute a barrier when the costs associated with the certification process exceed the potential benefits (Jarasueiya et al., 2006). The present study aims to compare the export performance of certified vs. non-certified firms in the Colombian processed food industry. A Mann-Whitney Test was used to analyze the difference of exports value for the selected companies, and then, non-structured interviews to the quality managers of these companies were conducted to gain greater understanding about the impact of standards certifications on their export performance.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the state of the confectionery market in Ukraine and deter-mine the prospects for its development. The structure of the confectionery market and the dynamics of production of various types of confectionery in Ukraine are established. The activity of the lead-ers of the Ukrainian confectionery market is analyzed, as well as the main trends in the development of this market. The existing demand for confectionery products both in Ukraine and in other coun-tries was studied, which allowed to determine the prospects for its further growth. Problems and prospects of development of the confectionery market of Ukraine are presented. It is determined that the stable development of the confectionery industry for the country’s economy will simultane-ously stimulate the development and growth of the production in agriculture, transport and logistics, trade, increase employment, and significantly increase the country’s export potential.

Worldwide, transportation accounts for roughly a quarter of the total final energy demand and a similar share of energy-based carbon dioxide emissions (IEA, 2016f). The transport sector has the most homogenous of fuel mixes, with petroleum-based products accounting for roughly 95% of the overall final share (Kahn Ribeiro et al., 2012). Biofuels and other options, like electric vehicles, have the potential to displace a notable portion of petroleum and CO2 emissions in the transport sector. Global use of ethanol, the most widely used among biofuels, has grown significantly in recent years. Between 2000 and 2010 alone, ethanol utilization increased 350% worldwide, with trade increasing by a factor of 5 and usage equaling 74 billion liters in 2010 (Valdes, 2011). This chapter examines the underlying roots of the biofuels transition in Brazil. Two micro-shifts—one that is government- led and a second that is industry-led—are evaluated, demonstrating how a new, energy market and industry can develop at a national scale through the retooling of existing industries and infrastructure. Insights on policy inflections, market longevity, and dual-use technology are also covered. Brazil is the historical leader in biofuels and the only country to substantially alter its automotive fuel mix with ethanol, shifting from 1% in 1970 to 34% in 2014 (see the section entitled “Modern Transition” later in this chapter). Ranked sixth globally for its population of roughly 206 million people and eighth for its economy of $3.1 trillion in mid-2016 (CIA, n.d.), Brazil has been a leading pioneer in the production and export of ethanol, its principal biofuel. In 2015, Brazilian ethanol equaled 28% of the global supply (Renewable Fuel Association [RFA], 2016). The country is known for having the lowest production costs of ethanol (Goldemberg, 2008; Shapouri, and Salassi, 2006; Valor International, 2014). Brazil also has a unique distribution network of more than 35,000 fuel stations supplying the renewable fuel (Agência Nacional do Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis, 2008).

India has the second largest area of arable (agricultural) land on this earth with heterogeneous agroclimatic regions across the country. India has the potential to grow a wide range of agricultural crops and varied raw material base for food processing industry. The paddy crop yield/hector of land is highest in Egypt is 9.5, while India is producing only 2.9. India's lower paddy crop productivity/hector and higher cost of production is a major concern for farmers. There are various reasons for India's low paddy crop yield, such as lack of mechanization, not adopting to modern method of farming, small land holdings, poor pests, and disease management. The recent survey discovered that there is huge gap in demand and supply in crop production and is likely to hit more than 15% by 2020, with the gap worsening to 20-25% by 2025. Researchers aimed to address this low crop yield issue by designing an expert system. This expert system helps the farmers by identifying and predicting the diseases for paddy crop to enhance crop yield and to reduce the supply and demand gap.

Spices take an important place in common man's everyday life mainly because of their flavor, taste, and medicinal values. Spice usage grew with the increased use of processed products. India is the largest producer of spices in the world. Growth in Indian spices and spice product exports clearly show that Indian spices and spice products have a great demand in international markets. India is the land of spices and could exploit the fast-growing nutraceutical sector with its high intrinsic quality spices. The scope of spices like turmeric, ginger, fenugreek, garlic, and red pepper in the nutraceutical industry with their possible role in the control and prevention of important health disorders are examined. The demand for nutraceutical products has gone up as more people are turning to natural products for treating lifestyle diseases. This review deals with the history and origin of spices and their potential uses as well as future prospects in treatment of various diseases in a natural way.

The kava plant, Piper methysticum Forst. f., is an attractive shrub in the pepper family, Piperaceae (figure 12.1). Known by various names in tropical Pacific, such as yagona, kava, kava kava, ’awa, seka, and sakau, it is propagated vegetatively, as are most of the traditional crops in the region. Kava has been used for many centuries to produce psychoactive preparations. Its active principles, several lipidlike substances known as kavalactones, are concentrated in the rootstock and roots. These psychoactive chemicals are ingested traditionally by Pacific islanders as cold-water infusions of chewed, ground, pounded, or otherwise macerated kava stumps and roots. Mind-altering kava preparations are, or once were, imbibed in a wide range of Pacific Ocean societies. These include peoples living in some lowland areas on the large Melanesian island of New Guinea in the western Pacific to very isolated islands such as those in Polynesian Hawai’i, 7,000 kilometers to the northeast (figure 12.2). Beyond this widespread local use in the tropical Pacific, utilization of kava in parts of Europe as a plant source for medicinal preparations has a relatively lengthy history. In Europe it has been used as a sedative, tranquilizer, muscle relaxant, relief from menopausal symptoms, and treatment for urinary tract and bladder ailments (Lebot et al. 1999). Over the past decade, there has been rapidly increasing interest in kava well beyond the areas of traditional use among Pacific Islanders (figure 12.3). This includes a huge surge in the use of kava products in Europe, North America, Australia, and elsewhere. Within the past 3 to 5 years there has been widespread recognition of its potential to emerge as a mainstream herbal product. Modern cultivation and use of kava in the Pacific has significantly expanded in some traditional use areas such as Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Pohnpei. There are also significant signs of rejuvenated interest in kava cultivation in some traditional areas of use where it had been abandoned because of depopulation, political prohibition, or zealous missionary denunciation. Increasing use and cultivation of kava on these Pacific islands has been stimulated by local consumption rates and rising demand for commercial export.

This paper analyses potential negative effects of mediatisation of university governance in Germany. Mediatisation reflects a change in expectations of how higher education institutions (HEI) should relate to the public. We explore two sets of developments that spawned this change of expectations. Firstly, the policy idea of a trend to a knowledge society affected what public contributions are expected of HEI. Secondly, reforms to decentralise HEI-governance compelled universities to orient themselves more directly towards demands of external stakeholder. Both developments reinforce each other, both are associated with extended needs for actor intermediation, and for consolidating means of orientation. Since performance figures and competition solely allow for a partial mapping of society's demands and needs, HEI and state administrators can be expected to make additional use of public discourse to evaluate comparatively a multitude of demands and expectations. This results in what we call a model of mediatised university governance. Since media discourse on higher education is strongly biased towards news values, this type of governance has potentially unintended side effects. In the second part of the paper, two empirical illustrations are discussed. First, the role of media attention in accidentally reinforcing a reputational mismatch of teaching and research is investigated. Secondly, we focus on an overstretching of the information value of media-effective rankings for decision making. The cases draw upon survey data, semi-standardised expert-interviews and content analysis of news media coverage.

Although most evidence that comes to court is non-technical—observations of everyday events by witnesses, records of business and other routine activities—an important and growing minority of evidence is scientific or technical. Such evidence has great potential for helping to resolve what might otherwise remain unfathomable. But expert evidence demands much of judges and juries. Judges must serve as gatekeepers, deciding whether the evidence meets standards for admissibility (under Daubert), but judges are poorly equipped to evaluate the claims of various disciplines. In their turn, jurors are expected to understand and rationally use expert testimony that is admitted. So we have a paradox. By its definition, expert evidence occupies intellectual territory beyond the competence of judges and jurors. Moreover, it typically comes to court skewed, exaggerated, and cherry-picked. Further, it will almost certainly be contested. How are judges and juries to intelligently sift for helpful truths under such conditions? Human minds did not evolve to intuit statistical (and especially not probability) data, but instead to be persuaded by stories, by conclusions asserted by proclaimed authorities, and by superficial characteristics of speakers (witnesses). The acceptance of “social truth” and the use of System 1 thinking predominate. Research psychologists have been seeking ways to present scientific evidence that are more consistent with how the human mind functions. In addition, researchers have been exploring rapid teaching techniques for bringing laypeople to higher levels of numeracy and inferential competence.

Du Bois borrows the idea of the interrupted lecture to develop his case study of Andrew Johnson in Black Reconstruction. Johnson represents the type of man that John Brown did not expect to find in the slave-holding world: someone who began his political career by hating the aristocrats responsible for slavery. Du Bois finds a potential for cross-racial alliance in a famous Tennessee lecture where Johnson is interrupted and hailed as a “Moses” of the color line. Even though the record of the lecture also exhibits traces of Johnson’s well-known racial prejudice, Du Bois momentarily suspends judgment in an effort to invite his reader into an anarchic space. Johnson would later perversely brag to Douglass about this stunning encounter but Du Bois rehearses Johnson’s positive response to the demands of his audience in order to challenge his reader to “demand the impossible” for themselves: the black reconstruction of democracy.

In the light of the exponential growth of tourism activity in the city of Lisbon, which is evidenced by several indicators, we face ourselves with a scenario of concentration in the city, not benefiting the whole region of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area (LMA). On the other hand, a unique opportunity of innovation of tourism supply emerges, seizing an increasing and plural demand. The chapter intends to explore the potential of dark immersive theatre experiences (DITE) as a tourism product. By doing so, it is suggested that DITE can innovate the tourism supply of the LMA, contributing to the deconcentration and diversification of tourism, on a themed and territorial perspective, as well as to the mitigation of the impacts of over tourism.

The economic behaviour, needs and preferences of people vary in the individual phases of their lives. The silver economy market is made up of consumers, employees or employers aged 50+. The share of this population is an important target group for entrepreneurs, brings a wide range of new products and services to businesses and has a significant role for the national economy as there is a change in the understanding of the ageing process from a threat towards economic opportunities. Although the ageing workforce and seniors in the Slovak Republic do not represent a strong demand for market goods yet, their economic potential may not be negligible. The rapid ageing of the Slovak population represents, among other things, an economic potential that can be exploited in favour of innovation and improvement. Despite not a high level of pensions, seniors have considerable purchasing power, which will generate an increasing demand for specific goods and services, which is an opportunity for the labour market. In this paper we try to describe selected areas in which the silver economy and the ageing population itself should be viewed as a challenge to new business opportunities. In particular, these include health service and health care, spa care, the pharmaceutical industry, tourism, the financial sector and, last but not least, construction industry. The silver economy will change the rules of market forces in existing sectors and create a wholly new industry at the intersection of demographic and technological changes with a high export potential.

Abstract This paper highlights the efforts to mitigate the unprecedented situation of truncated gas demand via network modeling development and harmoniously harvesting value generation by its implementation. Global Pandemic in year 2020 resulted into unique situation of steep truncated gas demand due to economic slowdown worldwide. Hence as a prudent operator its deemed necessary to pursue strategic ideas and innovative concepts to manage offshore complex gas network to handle reduced supply demand balance, whilst protecting fulfill technical and contractual obligations also by optimizing value generation. It therefore demands the development and implementation of robust integrated system (end to end value chain system for hydrocarbon molecule) that would be leveraged on for agile response for deploying appropriate resolution considering dynamics of supply/demand balance and system equilibrium. This study focuses on a state of art that was commenced to develop an End to End Holistic Network Model from well head (fields) to product delivery terminal to scrutinize the complex offshore facilities to decipher appropriate pain points in terms of capabilities, risks, uncertainty, opportunity and exposures by performing robust analysis for trouble shooting, root cause analysis, gap analysis and expansion strategies for required scenario(s). A novel approach was influenced to create simulation model for complex network with building components i.e. source (100+ fields), sinks (multiple terminals), connectors (120+ export pipelines and ∼8 gas highways) along with pressure boosters (pump/compressor) etc. embedded in model. Major hubs, sub-hub, spill-over pipelines/loop lines including main gas transporting facilities with dedicated receiving terminal which formed integral part of network were also modeled in single platform. Flow co-relations for hydraulic estimations and material balance calculations along with engineering thermodynamics formulae for seamless data transfer in collaboration with operations were inbuilt for representative and resilient results. Simulation model was further validated with actual plant data as history matching and that precise forecasting analysis output. Multiple scenarios utilizing system ullage/ pipeline hydraulics (adhering to first principles) were studied and suitable alteration in operating philosophy e.g. were proposed to cater the truncated demand and to shape development strategies for future portfolios. Multi-level diagnostic was conducted to assure that system parameters such as operating pressure, velocity limits and required quality specifications are within operating envelope for the entire landscape. Lookahead analysis (what-if scenarios) were performed to evaluate to root cause analysis and troubleshoot at various intensities of the network to cater for equilibrium balance. Multiple contemplating scenarios were accomplished to analyze complex network parameters such as ullage opportunity, pressure variations, hydraulic fluxes, potential choking of low-pressure wells/fields & prospective blending specifications with variations in the supply/demand outlook. Gap analysis was executed in addition to arrive at necessary alterations for operating philosophy, partial segregation of system for pressure balancing due to low flow volume and product quality adherence. Model output assisted to gauge the potential for operating network by implementing appropriate reforms to optimize truncated flow in system and ensuring system is above its minimum turndown rate flow regime and could also propose to have the necessary mitigations to be in place for vigorous liquid management system due to low flow in network. Above methodology describes how by developing an end to end network model that summarize the granularity of a complex offshore network has facilitated to steer the agile response for operating envelope to cater the fluctuations in the demand/supply balance and optimize offshore allocations by network balancing for value maximization and to form a vision of portfolio strategy for future developments.

The global economic crisis first started in the USA in September 2008 as a widespread insolvency problem caused by mortgage debts of households that had become unpayable. The financial crisis, in turn, caused a serious recession. The economic crisis soon spread to other developed countries because their banks held assets of US banks that had become nearly worthless while exports of these countries to the USA decreased significantly. Then it spread to developing countries because direct private investments (DPIs) and financial funds flowing from developed to developing countries declined precipitously while exports of the latter to the former countries also fell down. The developed countries, however, took proper steps to ameliorate the crisis by lowering the interest rates, helping the insolvent banks financially as wel as launching public expenditure programmes. Turkey was one of the worst hit countries because she had been following wrong globalization strategies. Privatization process was corrupt while much of the DPIs went to those fields which did not yield much increase in employment or export potential. But most importantly, Turkey had raised interest rates to abnormally high levels and thereby had vastly expanded her internal and external debts. Hence, as a result of the global economic crises, Turkey suffered a significantly deep fall in her GNP growth rate and a very big increase in her unemployment rate. Though Turkey took several measures to ameliorate the balance of payments deficit and to expand total demand, hence production, the government refrained from making a stand-by agreement with the IMF in order to avoid strict discipline in her government expenditures due to first, local elections and presently, the coming parliamentary elections.

Objective / Scope With renewable energy sources not currently able to move energy around the globe and forming small portions of the total global energy supply, it has fallen upon hydrocarbon sources to form the backbone of global energy movements. Hence, the recent energy demand decline, along with policy, have disproportionately impacted world-wide petroleum and LNG pricing. The impact on Floating LNG has been a heightened demand for capital efficiency, required to achieve final investment decision. A business case specific means of reducing FLNG CAPEX, has been repurposing marginal assets. Starting with a breakdown of the cost components of an FLNG facility, this paper will provide examples of the inclusion of preexisting assets into FLNG projects to reduce capital cost. The paper will wrap up with other opportunities for cost savings, to stimulate thought. Methods, Procedures, Process Floating LNG (FLNG) technologies have been deployed to monetize mid-sized offshore gas reservoirs, avoiding constructing a sub-sea gas pipeline to a land-based LNG facility and export jetty. Containing the processing to an oceanic environment also reduces the impact on indigenous peoples as well as terrestrial flora and fauna. FLNG facilities also have the potential of serving multiple offshore fields over the life of the facility, thereby reducing the minimum size field that can be economically monetized. Interest in FLNG continues, despite the current slump in energy prices, however these challenging times are refocusing efforts on reducing the capital cost of FLNG. This paper will explore recent capital cost trends in LNG, with a focus on floating LNG, examples of realized opportunities to reduce CAPEX, and further scope for reductions. Results, Observations, Conclusions The readers will take-away from this paper a deeper understanding of: Recent trends in CAPEX for LNG, and specifically FLNG Where significant opportunities lie for cost reduction Examples of the reuse and repurposing of marginal assets to reduce cost of FLNG facilities Areas to be explored for future capital reduction Novel / Additive Information This paper pulls together disparate threads into a coherent whole, providing visualization of the trends and examples of realized opportunities.

Abstract Installation of Wet Gas Metering System (WGMS) on a platform for the purposes of real-time measurement of liquid and gas production rates as well as performance monitoring as part of reservoir and production optimization management are quite common nowadays in Malaysia. Nonetheless, understanding of wells production deliverability invariably measured using these Wet Gas Meter (WGM) which provides the notion of production rates contributed by the wells are paramount important, eventually the produced fluids will be processed by various surface equipment at the central processing platform before being transport to onshore facilities. However, the traditional WGM are known to operate within ±10% accuracy, whereby the confidence level on measurement of the produced fluids can be improved either by updating with accurate PVT flash table or combination of results from performing tracer dilution technique for data verification. Sarawak Gas Field contains a number of gas fields offshore East Malaysia, predominantly are carbonate type formation, where one (1) of the field operated by PETRONAS Carigali Sdn.Bhd.(PCSB) is a high temperature accumulation at which temperature at the Gas Water Contact (GWC) approximately 185°C and full wellstream Flowing Tubing Head Temperature (FTHT) records at 157°C. Cumulative field production of five (5) wells readings from WGM had shown 9.1% differences as compared to the export meter gas readings. As part of a strategy to provide maximum operational flexibility, improvement on accuracy of the WGM is required given that the wells have higher Technical Potential (TP) but are limited by threshold of the multi-stage surface processing capacity. This also impacts commerciality of the field to regaining the cost of capital investment and generate additional revenue especially when there is a surge in network gas demand, as the field unable to swiftly ramp-up its production to fulfill higher gas demand considering the reported production figures from cumulative WGM surpassing the surface equipment Safe Operating Envelope (SOE). Our approach begins with mass balance check at the WGMS and export meter including the fuel, flare and Produced Water Discharge (PWD) to check mass conservation by phases because regardless different type of phases change occurs at topside the total mass should be conserved (i.e. for total phases of gas, condensate and water) provided that precise measurement by the metering equipment. Tracer dilution measurement of gas, condensate and water flowrates were used to verify the latest calibrated Water Gas Ratio (WGR) and Condensate Gas Ratio (CGR) readings input into the WGM. Consequently, PVT separator samples were also taken via mini-separator for compositional analysis (both gas and condensate) and for mathematical recombination at the multi-rates CGR readings to generate a representative PVT compositional table. Simultaneously, process model simulation run was conducted using full wellstream PVT input to validate total field production at the export point. This paper presents practical approach to balance the account, to ensure the SOE at topside as well as to improve the PVT composition at the WGM for high temperature field that emphasizes on understanding of compositional variations across production network causing significant differences in total field production between WGM and the allocation meter.

The development of and support for small modular nuclear power plants (NPPs) is gaining strong momentum in USA. The reasons are that they could require reduced financing and shortened construction schedule. Also, they could address the reduced size need for electricity in some USA locations and, in particular, in developing foreign countries. However, the prevailing enthusiasm needs to be moderated until several potential obstacles are overcome. There are three principal USA obstacles: (1) the successful licensing and certification of the SMRs by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to confirm their safety; (2) SMRs ability to demonstrate that they can compete financially against less costly modular natural gas power plants or the limited purchase of electricity from new large light water reactors (LWRs); and (3) the need to work into the prevailing fuel cycle while not deteriorating spent fuel disposal or increasing proliferation. Clearly, Babcock & Wilcox’s and Nu Scale Power’s SMRs have the earliest chance for success because they would rely upon the present LWR regulatory and fuel cycle experience. Their main obstacle will be demonstrated costs from prototype plants and the willingness to accept fixed turnkey contracts for additional units. The more visionary SMRs such as GE-Hitachi PRISM or the Hyperion Power Generation smaller liquid metal closed fuel cycle reactors will have to overcome more difficult and lengthy regulatory assessments. Also, a complete fuel cycle infrastructure will need to be developed. Penetration of developing foreign countries will be the most difficult because it will demand the development and establishment of a nuclear safety infrastructure in those countries. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA NG-G-31) has detailed the numerous actions and large time schedule and efforts to achieve an adequate safety culture. Also, several export licenses and monetary loans will be required. Furthermore, it will be necessary to overcome the lack of insurance for severe accidents and the anticipated USA refusal to accept domestic disposal of foreign High Level Waste (HLW). This means that government owned suppliers such as Russia have definite advantages over the USA private suppliers because of their willingness to provide loans and handling HLW. This paper first summarizes the power history growth of USA reactors and the recent momentum developed for USA SMRs; it is followed by available brief descriptions of USA LWR SMRs and some of their potential obstacles; more advanced USA SMRs designs and their potential difficulties come next; foreign applications are covered last and they are followed by a Conclusions section.

Abstract Nigeria is the 2nd biggest natural gas producer in Africa, with much of it exported as LNG, some re-injected while a small fraction serves the domestic market. The volume supplied to the domestic market plays an outsized role in the energy mix and economy of Nigeria with over 90% supplied to thermal power plants and industrial clusters. As huge upstream gas projects continue to take Final Investment Decision, pipeline takeaway capacity grows and demand increases, the dependence on natural gas and preponderance in the energy mix will likely persist. Natural gas is the present and future of Nigeria's energy needs. The domestic gas industry is evolving but has been fraught with challenges. Oil and gas infrastructure are often disrupted and production shut-in, mostly triggered by infrastructure unavailablity, environmental concerns and prioritisation of hydro power generation during River Niger's white and black floods, all of which come at a cost to upstream producers. Gas producers are often compelled to curtail production of gas plants (associated and non-associated) to avoid environmental disasters and prohibitive gas flare penalties. Can underground gas storage (UGS) be an opportunity for gas producers to guarantee continued operations during disruptions and provide buffer for national strategic benefits? This paper seeks to explore the potential technical and economic dynamics of underground natural gas storage in Nigeria in the context of extant technical regulations, seasonal demand variations, gas flare penalties and local operating environment. The paper presents types of underground storages and recommends the most suitable, considers options for optimal location of UGS in Nigeria and undertakes an economic evaluation of a UGS project. The findings are further presented alongside the critical technical, regulatory and fiscal factors that may facilitate future investments and growth of underground gas storage in Nigeria.

The growing demand for natural gas leads to an increasing LNG market. The amount of traded LNG has more than doubled during the last decade. This trend is intensified by the rising number of liquefaction plants (export terminals) and regasification plants (import terminals). At the end of the year 2013 there were 86 liquefaction plants in 17 exporting countries and 104 import terminals in 29 importing countries. Also the number of floating regasification plants is growing. It is expected that the LNG market will grow with 7 % per year until 2020. In comparison, the market for gaseous natural gas only will increase with approxematly 1.8 % per year. The difference could be led back to the several advantages, when using LNG. Thus LNG enables the extraction of natural gas in offsite areas and leads to a flexible gas market. Especially with improving the efficiency of each part of the LNG chain — liquefaction, transportation, storage and regasification — and its fallen prices the LNG market will continue to grow. For the regasification of LNG different processes have been used, while mainly the vaporization via direct or indirect heating is applied. Due to their location at the coast of the importing country, seawater, air or the combustion gases coming from natural gas are used as thermal energy. A further possibility is the combination of regasification of LNG with generating electricity. Additionally, the regasification of LNG could be integrated into chemical processes (oil refinery and petrochemical plants), where low temperature refrigeration is required. The authors have already reported a concept for the integration of the regasification of LNG into an air separation and liquefactions process, i.e. into a cryogenic processes. In previous publications, an evaluation of the conventional air separation unit in combination with the LNG regasification has been reported. It was emphasized that the integration of LNG leads to a lower power consumption for the entire system. This paper deals with an improved concept for integrating the regasification of LNG into an air separation process. Due to structural changes, comparing the first design and the new design, the system can be further improved from the thermodynamic point of view. The aim of this paper is to discover the potential for improvement by the parametric study. The results obtained from the sensitivity analysis (energetic and exergetic) are reported as well as the results obtained from the advanced exergetic analysis. Some options for new designs of this system are be developed.

This study evaluates potential aggregate effects of net-zero energy home (NZEH) implementations on the U.S. electrical grid in a simulation-based analysis. The aggregate impact of large-scale NZEH implementations on the U.S. electrical grid is evaluated through a simulation-based study of prototype residential building models with distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation systems. An EnergyPlus residential prototype building model (i.e., a multi-family low-rise apartment building) is used to determine the detailed electricity consumption of each residential building model using U.S. climate weather files. This study assumes that net-metering is available on the electrical grid so that the surplus on-site electricity generation can be fed to the electrical grid. This study also considers the impact of electrical energy storage (EES) within NZEHs to effectively use on-site generated electricity on the electrical grid. Finally, surveyed residential building permits in 2017 are used to estimate net-electricity demand profiles of NZEHs on a national scale. Results indicate that adding distributed PV systems to enable annual multi-family NZEH performance can significantly increase changes in imported and exported electricity demand from and to the electrical grid during the daytime. However, using the EES within NZEHs helps reduce the peak electricity demand during the daytime. The stored electricity in the EES can also be used during the evening time. The peak net-electricity differences on the U.S. electrical grid-level could potentially be reduced during the daytime and shifted to the evening. Comparison of hourly electricity demand profiles for the actual U.S. demand versus the calculated net-demand on a national scale indicates that the percentage differences of U.S. net-electricity demand include about 4.5% and 4.8% for the multi-family NZEH without the EES on representative winter and summer days, respectively, at a maximum point. In addition, when the EES is added within the multi-family NZEH, the peak percentage differences could be reduced to about 3.4% and 4.3% on representative winter and summer days, respectively, at a maximum point.

Objective / Scope LNG has proven its worth, to meet energy demands throughout the globe at scale, whilst providing the cleanest fossil fuel. To complement the emerging trend of energy transition all over the globe, LNG provides a robust solution for a potential future. This paper will describe the current state and outlook of the LNG market, rethinking of LNG contracts and the major drivers that could favor a Floating LNG facility as a market driver compared to land-based facilities. Methods, Procedures, Process With recent events which include the oil price slump, LNG supply glut and the ongoing COVID 19 pandemic, the imbalance in the LNG market is predicted to run with low market price that could last up to four more years. On one hand, low market price is putting a lot of pressure on suppliers but on the flip side, this can be a game changer for the consumers. Consumers can potentially exploit buyers' market by making the investments much stronger to strive towards a clean future. Conventionally LNG producers have been land-based until facilities like Golar LNG made historical success. The focus of the Floating LNG industry is now directed towards small and mid-scale production. With a constant demand from stakeholders to get facilities up and running in a short development schedule, Floating LNG can provide some compelling benefits when combined with the concept of an economic time chartering investment rather than a CAPEX investment. This leads to a shortened execution time from discovery to market and avoids the extensive and time-consuming permitting and land use issues that are typical of onshore projects. The main drivers / challenges for a Floating LNG Facility investment are · Location, associated country regulatory restrictions · Source of gas · Market demand · Technology based on capacity · Project financing Floating LNG can not only provide economic benefits for first use but could also provide a commercial route to easy re-deployment to new gas sources, wherever necessary and possible. The paper will include: · Reflection on the LNG market of the recent past · Impact of COVID 19 on LNG market globally and the projected trends by various analysts · Overview of LNG contract types · Technical and commercial Drivers of Floating LNG which will potentially influence the market Results, Observations, Conclusions The take-away from this paper is a deeper understanding of the following: · Current LNG market and outlook · Reimagine LNG Contracts · Re-explore Floating LNG drivers Novel / Additive Information While the COVID 19 has created one of the reasons for the major impact on the market, this paper will present more interesting facts on many other contributing reasons for the present market downturn. This will in turn give an in-depth understanding for reimagining the major three drivers of Floating LNG, potentially leading to a WIN-WIN solution. This will help to sustain a constant cash flow amongst both sellers and buyers.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

Background: In an era of explosive growth in biomedical evidence, improving systematic review (SR) search processes is increasingly critical. Text-mining tools (TMTs) are a potentially powerful resource to improve and streamline search strategy development. Two types of TMTs are especially of interest to searchers: word frequency (useful for identifying most used keyword terms, e.g., PubReminer) and clustering (visualizing common themes, e.g., Carrot2). Objectives: The objectives of this study were to compare the benefits and trade-offs of searches with and without the use of TMTs for evidence synthesis products in real world settings. Specific questions included: (1) Do TMTs decrease the time spent developing search strategies? (2) How do TMTs affect the sensitivity and yield of searches? (3) Do TMTs identify groups of records that can be safely excluded in the search evaluation step? (4) Does the complexity of a systematic review topic affect TMT performance? In addition to quantitative data, we collected librarians' comments on their experiences using TMTs to explore when and how these new tools may be useful in systematic review search¬¬ creation. Methods: In this prospective comparative study, we included seven SR projects, and classified them into simple or complex topics. The project librarian used conventional “usual practice” (UP) methods to create the MEDLINE search strategy, while a paired TMT librarian simultaneously and independently created a search strategy using a variety of TMTs. TMT librarians could choose one or more freely available TMTs per category from a pre-selected list in each of three categories: (1) keyword/phrase tools: AntConc, PubReMiner; (2) subject term tools: MeSH on Demand, PubReMiner, Yale MeSH Analyzer; and (3) strategy evaluation tools: Carrot2, VOSviewer. We collected results from both MEDLINE searches (with and without TMTs), coded every citation’s origin (UP or TMT respectively), deduplicated them, and then sent the citation library to the review team for screening. When the draft report was submitted, we used the final list of included citations to calculate the sensitivity, precision, and number-needed-to-read for each search (with and without TMTs). Separately, we tracked the time spent on various aspects of search creation by each librarian. Simple and complex topics were analyzed separately to provide insight into whether TMTs could be more useful for one type of topic or another. Results: Across all reviews, UP searches seemed to perform better than TMT, but because of the small sample size, none of these differences was statistically significant. UP searches were slightly more sensitive (92% [95% confidence intervals (CI) 85–99%]) than TMT searches (84.9% [95% CI 74.4–95.4%]). The mean number-needed-to-read was 83 (SD 34) for UP and 90 (SD 68) for TMT. Keyword and subject term development using TMTs generally took less time than those developed using UP alone. The average total time was 12 hours (SD 8) to create a complete search strategy by UP librarians, and 5 hours (SD 2) for the TMT librarians. TMTs neither affected search evaluation time nor improved identification of exclusion concepts (irrelevant records) that can be safely removed from the search set. Conclusion: Across all reviews but one, TMT searches were less sensitive than UP searches. For simple SR topics (i.e., single indication–single drug), TMT searches were slightly less sensitive, but reduced time spent in search design. For complex SR topics (e.g., multicomponent interventions), TMT searches were less sensitive than UP searches; nevertheless, in complex reviews, they identified unique eligible citations not found by the UP searches. TMT searches also reduced time spent in search strategy development. For all evidence synthesis types, TMT searches may be more efficient in reviews where comprehensiveness is not paramount, or as an adjunct to UP for evidence syntheses, because they can identify unique includable citations. If TMTs were easier to learn and use, their utility would be increased.